Bill Cara’s Blog for Apr 12, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[8:15am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

The 50 dma is now providing resistance to the S&P 500 and the 1370 level appears to be as important as we thought it would be. I would like to see a drop to the .236 fibonacci at around the 1340 area before buying back stocks that we sold. That area is also the March low and should price get there, we could see a bounce that squeezes shorts which would create solid support.

My money flow indicator is showing outflows in stock ETFs like SPY, QQQ or DIA and until that indicator goes positive, stock rallies are suspect.

Positive money flow is showing up in GLD, SLV, CEF, PHYS and the bond ETFs. That is not surprising. What is interesting is that I am seeing an uptick in money flow into GDX and GDXJ which could be a sign of things to come.

AAPL has an unusual amount of outflow relative to price movement. This could mean that traders are starting to exit the stock.

This money flow data is only a few days old and is not a good timing tool, but it shows cracks in the dike.

Lets see how the market reacts to the economic data and earnings season but right now, I like the support at 1340ish and if the market shows strength above the 1370 level, we will see that as positive.

Gold is finding resistance on the downtrend line from the February high. I’d like to see another 5 trading days lower than these levels before we break that downtrend line because then time will be on our side also.

I have been asked why I did not want gold to rally last week and that is a good question.

I try to think in probabilities and use the analogy of a stool when I view a trade. The more legs on a stool, the stronger it will be. Adding a leg based on time with another 3 or even 4 legs will make for a really strong stool and a higher probability trade. As I have been saying for weeks, I think the next run up in gold will blow your hair back and I want the timing leg to be in place in order for that to happen. Another week or two and we will be ready for lift-off.

Have a great trading day!


9:05am ET: This is Bill.

When ChrisM gave us the link to an article listing the most shorted goldminer stocks, I was surprised to see McEwen Mining (MUX) at the top of the list, with some 22.2 million shares short.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/492151-top-10-most-shorted-gold-mining-s…

My immediate thought was that this happens to be the result of UXG and MAI.TO pre-merger arbitration that was followed by the long-side replacement with MUX and the short-side still sitting there. But I don’t know.

What I do know is that, particularly on the books of large financial institutions, there are, on occasion, erroneous positions that remain for many years. I recall reviewing the portfolio of an institutional client of one of the major firms I once worked for. On the books was a large holding, accounted for at cost, of an oil company stock where the company had gone bankrupt at least five years before. Upon inquiry, I was told the responsible manager had long since departed and nobody there wanted to look guilty for the write-off. Amazing.

As I see it there is no reason to be short MUX at this level. McEwen himself last bought the stock at $6.50, about $20 million dollars worth. Remember, Rob takes no salary or options. He runs the company like his job title says, “Chief Owner”.

Most traders who are short have done so because they believe that the current share price is very much higher than the fundamental value of the company, hoping to buy in the short if, as and when the market comes to its senses. But there are many other reasons for short positions.

Athough there are many reasons, I happen to think that one of the big ones for a short position is tax related, which could be illegal. The same trader could be purposefully setting up tax losses in a high tax jurisdiction and establishing a profitable position in a low or zero tax jurisdiction via a series of wash trades.

In fact, the SEC has recently accused Royal Bank of Canada management of wash trading in proprietary accounts. Of course RBC denies it, but the SEC is proceeding with its case. As for me, I believe this tactic has been standard fare at some banks for many years, and needs to be investigated.

There is, I believe, a tie-in of the SEC/RBC case and a recent case where a US judge ruled in favor of UBS after their “offshore” client sued them for fraudulent tax advice after getting fined by the IRS.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-fends-off-lawsuit-billionaire-23430793…

Years ago, I had a private lunch in Bahamas with the president of RBC Dominion Securities at the time. I queried him on their practice of offering “offshore” solutions, saying “You cannot have it both ways” and “I think in many cases the clients are being misled”.

At the end of the day, people know whether they are doing the right thing or not. The problem lies in the culture of an organization. As an example of that I look at the recent problems of Goldman Sachs, believing the source to come from the 1990’s leadership of Bob Rubin, Jon Corzine, Henry Paulson et al.

The power of these big banks, the ones I call Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B), is really enormous. To keep them in check the public needs a strong regulatory system, not one managed by former HB&B associates, friends and family.

As for the market today, there is the need for Earnings Season to measure up to the expectations of traders expressed in much higher prices in Q1. There is a concern that economies of the US, Europe and the BRIC countries may be too soft to support business conditions that would result in much higher profits. Of course labor is a factor in that profits can be gained via lay-offs, but then the economy is largely built on consumer purchases, which are hurt by unemployment. Government spending too must be curtailed as debts and deficits are at extreme levels relative to GDP in so many countries. So, the bottom line is that central banks must create the new money needed to sustain economic activity levels, and at the same time hold down the interest rates to levels that are not economic for investors. That policy depreciates fiat money. For these reasons, precious metals must rise in price, and would if not suppressed by government sales, taxation practices and use of the bully pulpit.

Without question, with all the intervention involved today, this is the most difficult period in which to trade securities I have seen in 50 years of trading. Even the consumer and financial stocks that have had such a strong year are burdened with question marks, leaving investor confidence very brittle.

But, we persevere because we must. We know that market prices are affected by cycles, and always there is good that follows bad.

Have a good day.


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,061.76 6:44AM EDT Up 9.45 (0.46%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,231.30 4:59AM EDT Up 0.80 (0.04%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,230.13 6:59AM EDT Down 7.56 (0.23%) Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,711.89 6:45AM EDT Up 37.16 (0.56%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 304.55 6:44AM EDT Down 3.22 (1.05%) Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 465.82 6:44AM EDT Up 0.54 (0.12%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 326.12 6:59AM EDT Up 1.73 (0.53%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,077.61 6:44AM EDT Up 17.79 (0.29%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,628.62 6:45AM EDT Down 6.12 (0.11%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 942.30 6:59AM EDT Up 2.40 (0.26%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,495.14 6:44AM EDT Down 12.39 (0.82%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 714.23 6:44AM EDT Down 9.38 (1.30%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


  1. 8:30 AM ET International Trade 8:30 AM ET Jobless... [#107355]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 8:30 AM ET International Trade
    • 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims
    • 8:30 AM ET Producer Price Index
    • 9:45 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    • 10:30 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report
    • 1:00 PM ET 30-Yr Bond Auction
    • 4:30 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet
    • 4:30 PM ET Money Supply
  2. 3 in Buy alert 2 in Distribution Zone 10 in Sell... [#107356]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 3 in Buy alert
    • 2 in Distribution Zone
    • 10 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone: Monthly 4, Weekly 10, Daily 32
    Distribution Zone: Monthly 14, Weekly 4, Daily 2

  3. Good morning. 08:30 Jobless Claims 08:30 PPI 08:30 Trade... [#107357]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    08:30 Jobless Claims
    08:30 PPI
    08:30 Trade Balance

    ——

    AMZN – Amazon.com initiated with a Neutral at SunTrust.

    BBBY – Downgraded to Hold @ Canaccord. Target $73

    EA – Electronic Arts initiated with a Neutral at Ascendiant Capital. Target $16

    GOOG – Google initiated with a Buy at SunTrust. Target $750

    ——

    “When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic.” ~ Dresden James

  4. Full gubmint malarky here:... [#107358]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Full gubmint malarky here: http://is.gd/unHFuU

  5. ... [#107360]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
  6. ... [#107361]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
  7. AAPL - estimates, target were increased at Credit Suisse... [#107362]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    AAPL – estimates, target were increased at Credit Suisse. Estimates were raised through 2013. Company is seeing higher iPhone sales, Credit Suisse said. Outperform rating and new $750 price target.

    QCOM – estimates, price target were increased at Credit Suisse. Estimates were boosted through 2013. Company is leveraged to secular growth in the smartphone market, Credit Suisse said. Outperform rating and new $80 price target.

    Looks like Bill beat me to these.

  8. If and when the gold stocks start their rebound, doesn't... [#107363]
    By: schnauser (31 comments) Go to top ↑

    If and when the gold stocks start their rebound, doesn’t the massive short position mean that MUX will rocket higher on short covering?

    • So far so good on MUX.... It is holding the supoort area I... [#107366]
      By: basketguy (90 comments) Go to top ↑

      So far so good on MUX….

      It is holding the supoort area I marked out a couple weeks ago….We could see a quick move back up to the 5.50 area…

  9. lot of churn at nat. gas area.... ' upl ' came close to... [#107364]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    lot of churn at nat. gas area…. ‘ upl ‘ came close to start.

  10. Attached chart of HUI shows entry level after break out up... [#107365]
    By: Bear E (287 comments) Go to top ↑

    Attached chart of HUI shows entry level after break out up and over $458 perfect bouce off Weekly 200ma

  11. Not sure what to make of this rally today. But, the 1370... [#107367]
    By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

    Not sure what to make of this rally today. But, the 1370 mark on the S&P was just sliced through with little resistance. Head fake? Liquidity spigot opened? Short squeeze?

    Methinks the giant tub of cash in the US bond market is slowly draining at long last.

    I wonder what the rate on the 10 year Note will be at year end?

    Could it be as high as 2.6%? 2.75%? Call me crazy. If the US follows Europe, higher rates are in the cards, its just a matter of how soon. David Malpass was on Bloomberg this AM saying that we could see 3.5% GDP growth in the second half of 2012…couple that with an election year and voila! Happy days are here again for equities. If you believe that Italy and Spain are truly not at risk of insolvency, then risk is on.

    • nebish - "I wonder what the rate on the 10 year Note will... [#107370]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      nebish -

      “I wonder what the rate on the 10 year Note will be at year end?

      Could it be as high as 2.6%? 2.75%? Call me crazy. If the US follows Europe, higher rates are in the cards, its just a matter of how soon.”

      Geithner will keep snapping up the long end of the yield curve to continue to export inflation to China until renminbi unpegs from frn/euro to allow U.S. exports to accelerate and give GDP some life. It’s starting to happen as shown in today’s international trade data:

      http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=45

      The real tell will be the yuan’s behavior leading up to the G20 in mid-June. Chinese officials have been allowing it to rise just before G20 leadership summits to avoid Timmy’s wrath on an international corporate/political platform. Flattening of the yield curve is the bigger game plan in the currency war with China. Chinese inflation led to Tiananmen Square.

      • And right on cue, CNBC reports that "Rumor on China GDP... [#107373]
        By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

        And right on cue, CNBC reports that “Rumor on China GDP, sinks Dollar, spikes commodities” is running.

        My Father in law recently posited a fascinating theory: He believes that China is accumulating gold and will eventually peg the Yuan to a gold standard. He then believes that the Yuan will – rather abruptly – replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. I don’t think China quite has the chops to pull that off, but it is a communist country, so who knows?

        Pegging their currency to gold would certainly solve their potential inflation problem and hurt the $US dollar in the process…of course, it would also create the problem of what to do with all those worthless US treasuries that China’s holding.

        As far as Timmy & Bernanke’s effort to keep a lid on yields…at some point bond investors start to vote with their feet. You have a lot of bond guys coming out now (Dan Fuss is the latest today) saying that you have to get ahead of the rising interest rate trade. Its just chatter now, but I think it is legitimate and gaining momentum. A top in the bond market is like Mt. Everest…everyone knows about it…few actually make it to the top…and its very difficult to breathe up there.

        • My sense is, the gold standard acts to limit the ability of... [#107375]
          By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

          My sense is, the gold standard acts to limit the ability of people in power to print money. China is no stranger to money printing – they just do it using banks and lending rather than central bank debt monetization. Consumer inflation there is just nuts.

          I’m going to guess the central authority in China is uninterested in losing any of the power they currently have, so I’d guess the odds of China introducing a gold-backed currency is quite low.

        • This China/gold theory is floating around goldbug-oriented... [#107376]
          By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

          This China/gold theory is floating around goldbug-oriented sites for a few weeks at least… sounds to me like surefire suicide for China, both political and economical.

          • Vad, "surefire suicide for China, both political and... [#107378]
            By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

            Vad,

            “surefire suicide for China, both political and economical” … could you please elaborate and explain your view ?

          • Well off the top of my head, the central planning authority... [#107380]
            By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

            Well off the top of my head, the central planning authority would lose all ability to arbitrarily inflate whenever the economy started to slow down.

            Here is why. A gold standard implies being willing to buy (or SELL) an infinite amount of gold at a fixed price. Let’s say China had a slowdown, and the China CB lowered rates to spur the economy. The Chinese banks start lending madly, inflating the currency. When this happened, people would take that new credit to the CCB demanding little gold bars in exchange. At some point, the gold runs out – that’s why Nixon closed the gold window in 1972. Our gold was running out. So to keep the gold there, the central bank would have to raise interest rates, making it less attractive to hold gold, and that would result in the economy getting hammered. Rate raises always result in a slowdown.

            The very mechanism that makes a gold standard attractive for savers makes it UNattractive for manipulative governments, since they would be unable to inflate without losing all their gold.

            The Chinese central government likes the power it has to inflate at will, since inflation is an easy way to default on promises. It is axiomatic that a central government generally doesn’t give up power willingly.

          • A few aspects to it... One, gold standard severely limits... [#107381]
            By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

            A few aspects to it… One, gold standard severely limits government’s ability to manipulate currency, monetary and fiscal policy. Doesn’t sound like what Chinese govt would want (or most others for that matter). Another, it puts a state that adopts it at severe disadvantage in the sea of fiat currencies – just look how inability to devalue the currency is what ails the weakest European countries to see how this disadvantage plays out. Third, gold standard creates a very unfavorable situation when economy is hot but gold supply lags. I am sure there are more factors, but IMO these three (heck, even first two) are enough to render such a move unpalatable for China…

            Edit: seeing Dave’s answer above, I could have refrain from typing mine just as well, lol.

          • thanx Dave and Vad. Lots for my little head to digest and... [#107382]
            By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

            thanx Dave and Vad. Lots for my little head to digest and absorb.

            I agreee that there are very limited amount of gold in the world and the world has gone a lot bigger…But each currency is always relative to another currency. When everyone is getting into such high deficits and debt, everyone wants to devalue their own currency to help revive their economies. Problem is when everyone is doing the same thing, and currencies are always relative to one another, are they really getting anywhere. Are they just spinning their wheels ?

            Let’s use Canada as an example, which I’m somewhat familiar. Back a decade or two ago when Canada was running a huge deficit, they devalued their currency to help export. That worked (I think). But that’s when hardly anyone else is doing it. Now everyone is doing the same thing, how is that going to work?

            There’s got to be a better solution. I don’t know…may be I’m off the mark here.

        • nebish - "My Father in law recently posited a fascinating... [#107387]
          By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

          nebish -

          “My Father in law recently posited a fascinating theory: He believes that China is accumulating gold and will eventually peg the Yuan to a gold standard. He then believes that the Yuan will – rather abruptly – replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. I don’t think China quite has the chops to pull that off, but it is a communist country, so who knows?”

          China is rapidly accummulating gold because it is woefully behind other big sovereigns in that regard. Your father in-law must read Martin Armstrong. What Armstrong points out time and again from an historical perspective is that the reserve currency and the global financial center shifts in a very long cycle through the history of civilization. We are seeing the PetroDollar (FRN) lose its reserve status and the big money flee the NY bourses in favor of alternatives. Rickards also shows how the G20 is the new global arbitor of finance and trade with the IMF taking on a new role as currency police dog. Although the gold standard has its own well documented issues that played out in one crisis after another through the 19th century, the unteathered fiat system with its half-assed currency system partially based on the remnants of Bretton Woods (IMF and all) isn’t any better. The sound money system that limits gov’t spending will be the answer to stop all wars.

          • Dr S - "The sound money system that limits gov't spending... [#107407]
            By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

            Dr S – “The sound money system that limits gov’t spending will be the answer to stop all wars.”

            We were on the gold standard during both world wars, and the civil war. How does that tally with your claim that a return to sound money would stop all wars?

            Sound money is a fine thing. But let’s not get carried away, ok?

    • The moves have been a little more violent this week; I've... [#107383]
      By: goldbug58 (370 comments) Go to top ↑

      The moves have been a little more violent this week; I’ve been thinking of hedging my long positions with a little SDS, and today might be the day to do so.

      I don’t think even experts have a grip on market direction in this environment, and the markets themselves seem to be looking for the latest bad news (Europe, China, employment numbers, QEIII or no QEIII).

      • "I don't think even experts have a grip on market direction... [#107384]
        By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

        “I don’t think even experts have a grip on market direction in this environment”

        Name me a time when they had! :)

        Sorry, just can’t resist… if you monitor the market direction vs “gurus” calls even cursorily over a course of let’s say 10-15 years, it’s truly mind-boggling. The consistency with which they are wrong time after time is nothing short of stunning – yielding only to persistence with which they continue making those calls.

        • Well put Vad! Since we know these experts are clowns it is... [#107386]
          By: Bear E (287 comments) Go to top ↑

          Well put Vad!
          Since we know these experts are clowns it is amazing to me how many people still pay attention to them.
          Tape reading is where it is at!
          I saw we were oversold on tuesday using the 8ma and 30ma on the ADVN-DECN 4 hr chart.
          Todays employment numbers were negative yet market rocketed higher. Today is options rollover day and is usually good for larger market moves.
          Look here comes the clowns!

  12. they are eating up the ' bid ' at ' cldx '... if that early... [#107368]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    they are eating up the ‘ bid ‘ at ‘ cldx ‘… if that early May data is what some well versed people think, this see’s major pop….

  13. with a very strong stomach, ' pran ' is close to phase III... [#107369]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    with a very strong stomach, ‘ pran ‘ is close to phase III, with backing and advice from some major resouurces… alz. will be media focus in next year..

  14. Gamechanger earnings reports coming in the next 24... [#107371]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    Gamechanger earnings reports coming in the next 24 hours.

  15. From Ed Steer's... [#107372]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    From Ed Steer’s site:

    http://www.caseyresearch.com/sites/default/files/r

    Got miners?!

    • Dr. Strangelove, please help with interpeting the chart... [#107377]
      By: Bear E (287 comments) Go to top ↑

      Dr. Strangelove, please help with interpeting the chart. Does this indicate that the price of miners to the price of gold is extreme? Miners cheap? What happens if the price of gold falls?
      Thank you in advance, Bear E

      • Bear E "Dr. Strangelove, please help with interpeting the... [#107388]
        By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

        Bear E

        “Dr. Strangelove, please help with interpeting the chart. Does this indicate that the price of miners to the price of gold is extreme? Miners cheap? What happens if the price of gold falls?
        Thank you in advance, Bear E”

        Yes, the chart shows this extreme and miners are indeed cheap. The ratio of silver to gold is also WAY TOO HIGH at 52:1 right now when historically its been around 15:1 going back to when they danced around STONEHENGE or established bi-metalism of coinage here in the U.S. in the 18th and 19th centuries.

        What happens if the price of gold falls? Well, it depends how far but p.m. miners have fat margins not necessarily built into the analysts’ DCF models as Bill has pointed out in the past. This means even if gold drops, it will have to drop a lot to make these margins look bad. By the way, gold will go up long term as it has been because western fiat currencies are going to devalue in the mother of all currency wars. It’s rising because the three major paper currencies – FRN, euro, and Yen – are losing buying power/devaluing in a fight to the bottom. That’s the only way to pay back the debt other than default-war/austerity and to get the Chinese to unpeg and stop exporting (dumping) crap on our citizens.

  16. Youtube video http://bit.ly/IpMpec Youtube review... [#107374]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    Youtube video http://bit.ly/IpMpec
    Youtube review http://bit.ly/IYZaaR
    Microsite: http://bit.ly/IaHUyI

    3000 units initial inventory. thats over $1M in sales on the announcement to dealers. all of them will sell out. the 40 cal will be very popular too once that is avail.

  17. If 79 holds on dollar IMO this rally will be another ... [#107379]
    By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

    If 79 holds on dollar IMO this rally will be another , lower high / lower low.

  18. As if the world needs any more saber rattling. FT is now... [#107385]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    As if the world needs any more saber rattling.

    FT is now reporting:
    “Spain warns Argentina on YPF holdings. Spain has told Argentina that any attack on its companies was an attack on Spain and would have “consequences”.

    I know that Spain have the unemployed youth issue to resolve, but if they choose to do it this way, how would they pay for it?

    • Bill - "I know that Spain have the unemployed youth issue... [#107389]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      Bill -

      “I know that Spain have the unemployed youth issue to resolve, but if they choose to do it this way, how would they pay for it?”

      Confiscate Argentina’s resources and use them as slaves? Old school method could make a comeback. Spain gained global dominance by extracting all the silver from the New World centuries ago and they still have a …. King Juan!

      • Dr. Strangelove, I have investments in Argentina and a lot... [#107392]
        By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

        Dr. Strangelove,

        I have investments in Argentina and a lot of respect for the people there — as I do for Spain. I really hope the saber-rattling stops.

        • Bill - Don't get me wrong. I wholeheartedly agree that the... [#107394]
          By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

          Bill -

          Don’t get me wrong. I wholeheartedly agree that the saber-rattling should stop. These are dangerous times. But Argentine President Cristina Kirchner should stop the saber-rattling as well with the U.K. for the oil assets of the Falkland Islands and pay back the billions of U.K. debt it defaulted on when her country’s peso hyperinflated. Didn’t she remember what happened last time her gov’t attempted to invade in 1982? I hate politicians.

    • Once again some one assuming dictatorial powers can not... [#107395]
      By: BOB 47 (361 comments) Go to top ↑

      Once again some one assuming dictatorial powers can not respect the rule of law and the respect the right of other people to own property . Bill I am reading a book called ” Civilization , the West and the Rest ” by Niall Ferguson , in there he looks for the reason the western civilization triumphed and others did not . Respecting the rule of law and the right of others to own property were crucial .

    • in a sense, we are being forced to prepare for war on some... [#107398]
      By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

      in a sense, we are being forced to prepare for war on some level

      :(

  19. Despite the fact the market is rallying as hard as it is... [#107390]
    By: joseph23 (17 comments) Go to top ↑

    Despite the fact the market is rallying as hard as it is, Apple is conspicuously weak.. things to come?

  20. For those that are curious... The last major currency to... [#107391]
    By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

    For those that are curious…

    The last major currency to depart the gold standard was the Swiss Franc. This occurred in 1999 (not really all that long ago).

    Is it mere coincidence that the Swiss Franc is arguably the strongest currency in the world today?

    Personally, I think the days of any asset backed currency standard are long dead and never to return. Today’s political economy is very reminiscent of late 19th century European aristocracy having titles but no money (governments) and needing to marry wealthy American industrialists (today’s monied elites) to preserve family lines and holdings during the gilded age (Downton Abbey fans out there?).

  21. GS fined for front running info not yet public. If in the... [#107393]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    GS fined for front running info not yet public. If in the same situation, wouldn’t you? How could they expect them to behave any differently.
    http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2012/04/12/g
    Ditto FRB making comments to keep the market goose cooking:
    http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/ Little Dab’ll do ya.
    Why would you bet against it?

  22. ... [#107396]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑
  23. I am late to the party here today but the green lights seem... [#107397]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    I am late to the party here today but the green lights seem to be fueled by hopeful comments that fiat money will live until 2015. They plan to fulfill this dream of killing the USD.

    http://on.ft.com/IA4h2B

  24. FD: Bought TCK shares after Bill's Whistler Growth... [#107399]
    By: moragakd (47 comments) Go to top ↑

    FD: Bought TCK shares after Bill’s Whistler Growth Portfolio Recommendation–

    Teck Resources Ltd. (TCKb.TO) OUTPERFORM R. Profiti
    CP: C$ 35.37 TP: C$ 60 CAP: C$ 20.4b
    South America Mine Tour: Day One
    ? Event: We are currently visiting TCK’s 22.5%-owned Antamina mine (Peru). Our operations visit will be followed by TCK’s
    76.5%-owned Quebrada Blanca and 90%-owned Andacollo mines (both in Chile) later this week.
    ? View: Positive; Antamina expansion 90% complete. The major expansion to increase ore throughput capacity to 130Ktpd
    is nearing completion, with final commissioning of the number two SAG mill occurring in early March, final commissioning of
    the copper/zinc flotation circuits expected later this month, and the expanded molybdenum circuit slated for completion in
    3Q12. Operating costs have moved steadily upwards in the past few years from US$11.75/tonne (milled) in 2006 to
    US$15/tonne in 2011 (our estimates), which we view as generally in-line with global industry trends. During this time, diesel
    costs have risen +40% and PPI +8% at the operation (according to mgmt.). Antamina’s strip ratio continues to be relatively
    stable at 3:1, with recent haulage cycle times increasing slightly due to development of the east dump.
    ? Operating objectives at Antamina include: (1) growing resources beyond the current 1.9Bln tonnes (incl. inferred); (2)
    improve geological and metallurgical understanding; and (3) ensure 70% of material mined comes from measured
    resources (currently 56-57%). TCK’s share of production in FY12 is expected to be 95-100Kt of copper, 40-45Kt of zinc,
    and 3.5Mln lbs of molybdenum in concentrate, which yields YoY% growth +30%, -20%, and +35%, respectively. The CA
    with unionized employees at Antamina expires July 23, 2012.
    ? Catalysts: QBII feasibility study. We expect results of the QB-hypogene project will be announced in late April, with plans
    for production in early-2016 coinciding with the QB-supergene ore that is expected to be mined out by 2016, though
    residual copper cathode at declined production rates will last until 2018.
    ? Valuation: Our TP of C$60 is based on a 50/50 weighting of 1.1x our NAVPS (C$53.33/share) and 6x FY12/13
    EV/EBITDA.

  25. US officials say they can confirm that North Korea has... [#107400]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    US officials say they can confirm that North Korea has launched rocket; White House will issue statement shortly – NBCNews

  26. VERY interesting reasoning from his sharp "data junkie"... [#107403]
    By: jock (1011 comments) Go to top ↑

    VERY interesting reasoning from his sharp “data junkie” partner, Kerry Lovvorn:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/parabolic-move-ma

    FD: I shorted AAPL before Alex did, and am therefore feeling more PAIN than he …. Still, I expect to exit smilling … FWIW

  27. Argex pushed through to a new high , up 7.29% ... [#107404]
    By: BOB 47 (361 comments) Go to top ↑

    Argex pushed through to a new high , up 7.29% . http://tinyurl.com/6p2k38z

  28. on the charts ( and, thus far, no splits in that time frame... [#107405]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    on the charts ( and, thus far, no splits in that time frame ), and waiting for Europe to get its act together, my 3 very favorite equities to buy will be RIG, MOS and UPL.

  29. ... [#107406]
    By: pulse (324 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=w1

    Spent several hours over the last two days reviewing old notes and looking at new ideas for this space.

    This progression could have many implications for the world as we know it. I am not prepared to make long-term projections for a low, low price at this time, but I have thought of the following secondary impacts a persistent low cost fuel would cause;

    Industrial competitiveness returns to North America.
    Vast oil sands extraction minimizes Middle East influence.
    Minerals extraction become highly profitable.
    Israel can begin an attempt at dialogue with its neighbours.

    The implications for this could be truly magnificent, if we could only process the emissions to something useful… perhaps some super farms could digest the carbon before the globalists get there greedy little hands on the credits. Their efforts to create the ultimate derivative for extracting wealth would have to be snuffed out, one way or another.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gas-buck (learned from the comments that NG can be rather easily converted to methanol)

    and tonight this from Bruce Krasting;

    http://brucekrasting.blogspot.ca/2012/04/three-con

    However, I’m sure the Pentagon (or Spain, N. Korea, Somalia,,,,,) will destroy my temporary optimism. Regardless, looking into NG generators tomorrow and might even hedge with some long options to cement my heating costs for a few years!

    Be well everyone,
    pulse