CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Stocks: The bulls failed to prove that stocks could make new highs yesterday. As seen in the chart below, bears won out which simply means that buyers are drying up and until we see them come back, it is time to remove stock risk. However, the recent rise in volatility has moved sentiment away from extremely bullish (bearish for the market) which is favorable for dip buying knowing that the liquidity pump is turned on. My thesis of a sideways trading range like we had in September and October of last year may work out, we shall see.

ggimage01_030113.png

Gold: Volume is beginning to dry up on declines. This is a good sign for gold and gold miners to lift. A reliable buy signal is for an uptick in $BPGDM off the lows, but that has not occurred yet.

The shift from equities to gold may be starting but until trend actually changes, it has not.

For those of you receiving the free weekend reports, I will not be producing one this week due to family obligations. However, my Monday morning report will be robust.

Have a great trading day and weekend!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,440.80 6:44AM EST Down 25.80 (1.05%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,557.00 3:13AM EST Down 1.00 (0.04%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,674.51 6:58AM EST Down 48.49 (1.30%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 7,677.74 6:44AM EST Down 63.96 (0.83%) Components, Chart, More
AEX.AS AEX General 337.48 6:44AM EST Down 3.05 (0.90%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 519.90 6:44AM EST Down 0.63 (0.12%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 373.69 6:42AM EST Down 1.63 (0.43%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 7,572.01 6:43AM EST Down 21.66 (0.29%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 6,329.71 6:44AM EST Down 31.10 (0.49%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 1,008.50 6:58AM EST Down 6.07 (0.60%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,486.04 7:59AM EST 0.00 (0.00%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 997.31 6:43AM EST Down 10.68 (1.06%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.

Add Comment →

86 Comments

  1. Quasi(118101 comments)-
    November 6, 2008 at 12:27 am

    First thing is the subject in this reply was not auto filled in by default, so manually re-entered it.

    Search is working better now but still needs to be set to a deeper level on the output side.

    Currently if I search for “Quasi” I only get a link to the two Community Chat forums currently on the site. To be useful I should get a flat collapsed newest first list of all my posts and all posts which contain that word. Each one would be linkable to view and then hit back to return to the list for another post selection.

    PS I just noticed I don’t have the option to save this reply, only preview and then the save button appears.

    • admin(118101 comments)-
      November 6, 2008 at 12:32 am

      I think I might have to do something drastic to make the search provide some reasonable results. So that might be a feature that gets added after release.

      However, for your particular search, a currently-unlinked/undocumented feature might be more useful. Check out http://caracommunity.com/drupal/users/quasi/comments (you can add “/comments” after any user’s profile page to see this list for them).

      Oh, and yeah, for some reason I have the forums set to require preview. I’m not sure if there’s a good reason for that, so I may turn it off.

      • Quasi(118101 comments)-
        November 6, 2008 at 2:14 am

        I like the addition of the “Re:” prefix and auto repeating the subject. Also like the fact that the first 40 characters are no longer echoed at the top of the post, that was rather confusing.

        Now with respect to this user comment search I like it, very close to what I’ve been used to on other sites. Now for the deluxe version put the following on the wish list,

        ** 1- When you click on a users name you go to their “account page” with boxes for “view, track, content” could we add a box for recent comments which just echos your link above.

        ** 2- When the page opens the default is: title, summary (first 200 char), view link, post date.

        ** 3- At the top of the default page is a toggle button to switch from summary view to the full body text view as shown in your example. (note if some posts included graphics there would just be an image tag, unless you click view post)

        PS, sometimes I think it might be good to actually talk once in a while, might speed up the communication, especially when brainstorming the pros and cons of things like flat or thread, forum organization and size etc. I’m on Skype “Quasime2″, but don’t have it loaded all the time, just let me know if thats an option and I’ll turn it on at an arranged time. Note we could also do a conference call between all of us at some point.

        Just a thought to try and help in the most efficient manor, I know Bill is probably pushing to get things up and running, but launching with a buggy site might be a disaster.

        Gord

        • hamilton_9(118101 comments)-
          November 6, 2008 at 5:45 am

          “I like the addition of the “Re:” prefix and auto repeating the subject. Also like the fact that the first 40 characters are no longer echoed at the top of the post, that was rather confusing.”

          agree

        • hamilton_9(118101 comments)-
          November 6, 2008 at 5:51 am

          Good comments Gord, I agree with all three — I am on Skype too and can do conference calls if we need to

          Geoff

      • hamilton_9(118101 comments)-
        November 6, 2008 at 5:30 am

        good reason = people should review their posts (at least scan them) before committing them to the real world

        saying this as I know I will catch myself in Preview Stage and go back at least a few times in the future LOL

        • hamilton_9(118101 comments)-
          November 6, 2008 at 5:37 am

          minor formatting note: on the post Preview page below the Preview and Save buttons the original post (you are replying to) appears. It just seemed a little crowded (more to do with beta status I am sure) and a little more space below those buttos would be good. Maybe also a default heading that says something simple like “You are replying to this post:”?

          Just thinking too about this helping keep posts organized on the site. People can confirm they are replying to the thing they want to which will save admin time later reorganizing/moving posts.

        • Quasi(118101 comments)-
          November 6, 2008 at 4:42 pm

          Geoff you can always use the edit feature, however that is only available until someone replies to you post then its frozen.

          So in the daily Comm Chat you may have virtually zero time but in a sub forum you may have a few minutes or days depending on the frequency of replies.

      • hamilton_9(118101 comments)-
        November 6, 2008 at 5:39 am
        • hamilton_9(118101 comments)-
          November 6, 2008 at 5:43 am

          thread roll up: In my last post I replied to the http://caracommunity.com/drupal/users/quasi/comments post. When the post posted, I was returned to the page with my post there but with three posts above it (they were “replies to replies” of the post above). It would be cool if the page loads with those rolled up (or having a way to roll them up)

    • hamilton_9(118101 comments)-
      November 6, 2008 at 5:27 am

      quick note — search is working better – did search for “still needs to be set to a deeper level on the output side.” and this thread was returned.

      The Community Chat was too — above this post in the search results. A minor quibble, but the post above has the exact phrase “still needs to be set to a deeper level on the output side.” and the Com Chat didn’t (from the post list I scrolled down to in the result). Since the above post has the exact phrase, shouldn’t it come up first? More a comment on how the search algorithm is set up then this particular search.

      One other comment: is it possible to have search terms highlighted in results (once you click to that search result link)? It would help when you are scrolling down through the post to easily find where your search term is mentioned. I see this being helpful once launched when we are reviewing prior posts or catching up on specific issues of the moment. (bonus feature: toggle highlight on and off per user input (checkbox or something) so once you locate your term you can turn off highlighting for readabilty)

      Geoff

      PS – I am just going to post as I react to things so take (or leave) posts as you want to — just throwing ideas out there

      • Quasi(118101 comments)-
        November 6, 2008 at 3:20 pm

        Yes Geoff I see the same thing, however I didn’t put the search string in quotes, so I was picking up on the individual words. So yes “on”, “the”, “to” etc were all in Com Chat Oct 9th somewhere in a comment. However it should have picked up just about every folder / forum on the site, it didn’t.

        The second output is the “Search Feature” forum, which contains the whole continuous string and it is second in line because the output is set to oldest first, I think that should be changed to newest first as that’s what you’re normally looking for. Down the road these outputs will be very long and you don’t want to have to scroll all the way to the bottom.

        Now if I put the string in quotes it only returns the “Search Feature” forum.

        I think the big problem is the search output is just the folder/forum and isn’t broken out to the individual post level. Now I can still click on an output folder and then open my FF search, input the same string and then toggle thru the posts with each found string highlighted.

        A little cumbersome when myself and most people are used to much more control over their search and output formats.

        • hamilton_9(118101 comments)-
          November 7, 2008 at 1:59 am

          Ah yes, the quotes. I forgot to put them around the text when I first searched. When I did it again, yes that post was the only one returned.

          You raise a good point about search results sorting. I also think ‘relevance’ should eventually be a sort option along with date newest/oldest since some searches are more for finding certain topics/ideas/phrases.

  2. Quasi(118101 comments)-
    November 28, 2008 at 4:00 pm

    Jeff I see Bill has been saying how great the search feature will be on the new site. We might want to put a note in the intro that its still underdevelopment as the performance right now leaves alot to be desired.

    Big problem is the output which at this point just gives you the forums which contain your criteria, you then have to go to each one and use your browsers search to find the criteria in each forum, way to cumbersome and no one is going to do that.

    I’m thinking maybe we are having the engine search the wrong database, searching forums gives us an output of forums. We need to be searching the individual comment database which will give us the output of all comments containing the criteria.

    Just another idea to look at, hope your Thanksgiving was great.

    Gord

    • admin(118101 comments)-
      November 29, 2008 at 2:10 am

      Bill sometimes takes things off the wishlist and states them as facts for the new site. Hopefully people won’t have excessively high hopes. All the comments are stored in the comment database, so if that wasn’t being searched you wouldn’t ever get a match for text that was in a comment. The main problem is that in Drupal, comments are “second-class citizens”. There are “nodes” (almost every other kind of content) and there are “comments”, which are not nodes. The search function likes to point you to nodes, and just incidentally searches comments as well. In the next version, they are supposed to make comments “nodes” as well, but until then I’ll have to work something out.

  3. davefairtex(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 12:04 pm
  4. [No set time] Motor Vehicle Sales
  5. 8:30 AM ET Personal Income and Outlays
  6. 8:58 AM ET PMI Manufacturing Index
  7. 9:55 AM ET Consumer Sentiment
  8. 10:00 AM ET ISM Mfg Index
  9. 10:00 AM ET Construction Spending
  • davefairtex(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 12:05 pm
  • 1 in Accumulation Zone
  • 1 in Buy alert
  • 10 in Sell alert
  • Accumulation Zone (11%): Monthly 7, Weekly 15, Daily 13
    Distribution Zone (13%): Monthly 16, Weekly 23, Daily 0

  • Ynot(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 12:49 pm

    As I was watching the dollar index blast off the launch pad this morning, this quote kept replaying in my mind “For Detroit, the time has come — to fix what the city’s elected leaders have failed to fix, as regime after regime tried to wish it all away.”

    In essence, Detroit has become a microcosm of Washington D.C. (without the conspicuous contribution from Johannes Gutenberg’s invention, of course)

    http://www.freep.com/article/20130301/COL06/303010151/Tom-Walsh-Time-has-come-for-Snyder-to-step-in?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

    The 10 year US treasury yield failed to convincingly break above 2% earlier this week and has now traced out a nice head & shoulders pattern.

  • Bull Hunter(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 1:34 pm

    Good morning.

    08:30 Personal Income/Spending
    08:30 PCE Prices – Core
    09:55 Michigan Sentiment – Final
    10:00 ISM Index
    10:00 Construction Spending
    14:00 Auto/Truck Sales

    ——

    CEO – CNOOC downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Nomura.

    GPS – PT Lifted from $36 to $39 @ Canaccord. Hold

    TEF – Telefonica upgraded to Neutral from Conviction Sell at Goldman.

    TGT – Target upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo to reflect reduced Canada dilution and improving operating metrics, tailwinds from the PFresh grocery remodel and REDcard rewards program, increased eCommerce focus, and exposure to a housing recovery. Valuation range raised to $73-$78 from $61-$65.

    ——

    “I have a question, a question for the president: Do you hate all rich people, or just rich people who don’t contribute to your campaign? Do you hate poor people or do you just hate poor people with jobs?”

    ~ Rand Paul

  • Les(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 2:18 pm

    as equities weaken. Something I wanted to see as a sign of investor rotation, rather than ‘last to leave the dancefloor’. Follow through key of course and a weekly pivot bottom.

    On the international stage, UK conservatives have been hammered in a by-election as national populism surges with Nigel Farage’s UKIP party. Definitely a threat in later federal elections.

    … while just across the channel Francois Hollande will likely be thrown to the lions before too long, with some fantasising a Sarkozy return (he’s off running his own hedge fund in London) while nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen sits waiting in the wing for the 2017 (I think) French Presidential elections. These dates are all critical to Armstrong’s gold bull thesis.

    Next little peek at European politics is German parliamentary elections in September, although I hear Merkel’s party is under pressure in local and state elections.

    Curreny wars, political circuses, economic malaise and no one wants to own precious metals at this critical point… sounds about right

  • Bull Hunter(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 2:30 pm

    TEF – The Spanish telecom titan is taken to Equal Weight from Underweight by Barclays.

  • bsi87(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 3:00 pm

    Don’t like the open even tho’ it’s favorable to my positions in SQQQ and GDXJ.

    the djia 10 atr is 125 pts. There was a 119 pt move in the first half hour (when the big boys nail Ma & Pa), or roughly 93% of an average day’s move in the first 15 min. Ditto the Naz, about 93% of the move in the first 15 min.

    I am watching both recent gaps and the 50 DEMA as potential exit points. I saw the recent tops as tradeable tops, not THE top for the Naz. And the recent gold low as a tradeable bottom.

    I would recommend one put NUGT and USLV on a watch list particularly the former for a LT trade. And DSLV for a ST trade. No positions in either.

    FD: long SQQQ/GDXJ

  • Grym(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 3:27 pm
  • cyangugu(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 4:10 pm

    As Geoff mentioned, the 61.8% Fib retracement is 337. While this level may hold also according to Dan Norcini, Dan Norcini has a worst case level of 272 on the HUI ( a 20% drop from here).
    The below analysis compares well the 2008 drop to today’s drop. The 2008 drop was up to the 75% level. So we should expect that in the really worst scenario the 272 level will hold because of the strong fundamentals today’s (Money priting, currency wars, central banks buying gold, better cash positions in company (SLW and others)) and there is no current banking crisis. The drop will be shallower in my opinion as the fundamentals and circumstances are not the same as in 2008.

    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2013/02/month

    So yes, it is not the time to be a weak hands as Geoff and Bill as mentioned. While a lot of us have suffered a 40% drop in their portfolio, the rewards to risk ratio ( ?% increase vs only 20% drop) at this level makes me confident that it is better to hold the bags and not capitulate.

    As mentioned by Bill, we should focus on the stocks that the Sprott and are accumulating. Do the relative strenght of a stock vs HUI, GDX, GDXJ are a good way to select which stock will outperform in the future bull phase?
    Any other indicator should we look at to see which security is getting accumulated?

    Thanks.

  • bluesky(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 4:15 pm

    Big Silver Copper Reserves in Montana
    Operating Troy Mine
    Another one called Rock Creek in final stages of permitting
    Earthquake caused a temporarily shutdown in operations since mid-winter which will hurt quarterly and annual revenue, but they’re debt free and cash-flow positive.

    The chart looks scary, and may still fall some more. But it’s at a huge discount for long-term holders at the current price regardless.

    DYODD – I just picked up more at $1.65

  • bigwad1(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 4:32 pm
  • 14them34me(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 5:08 pm

    I often wonder about the validity of “fundamental reasons” for precious metals to go up. Evidently, for the past year or two years, precious metals have been on a downward trend while “fundamental reasons” are suggesting otherwise. Platinum and palladium are moving up, but I think that has a lot to do with the auto industry recovering from the deep slump of past years.

    There’s also been a lot of talk about “manipulation” of the precious metal prices. Every time when it looks like the precious metals are off and running, the prices got knocked down again. “Manipulation” is often the crying reason. However, my thought is that true or not, “manipulation” could go on indefinitely, much like the QE’s. With that thought, why would precious metals be on any sustained upswing. It will just get knocked down again and again indefinitely.

    Almost everyone here also agree that “technically speaking”, sentiments are extremely bearish, precious metals are very much “Oversold” and at levels that are “cheap”. These are reasons for a bounce coming.

    Granted all the above are happening and true, I am thinking we still need a catalyst, a spark to light the fire. Whether we are looking at only a “dead cat bounce” (ie. in the case of “manipulation”) or a more sustained move (ie. if “fundamental reasons” play out), we still need that spark to get it going.

    So until I sense that someone, or something, had light the fuse, I’m sitting on my hands at this juncture. May be Vad is right, ie. Europe’s economy could be the spark.

    Just my 2 cents.

  • indptrader(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 5:15 pm

    Gold direction, I have no idea. It seems like Central banks are throwing massive amounts of paper money via the COMEX to drive the price lower. However, once people decide they don’t want to exchange paper, but rather have the real thing this disconnect may start something. What I see from reputable dealers like the mints is Very large sums of physical gold and silver are in fact sold out. Right now, the price is relatively in line with COMEX, but the question will be for how long as supply dry up.

  • cheapy(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 6:03 pm

    Not much else to say. I wish I had a job. My portfolio of mostly miners has ruined me.

  • Kaena(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 8:58 pm

    Bill,
    Hathaway makes many of the same points you’ve made… perhaps he reads your site?

    http://www.tocqueville.com/insights/investment-cas

  • Vadym Graifer(118101 comments)-
    March 1, 2013 at 9:52 pm
  • Vadym Graifer(118101 comments)-
    March 2, 2013 at 1:10 am

    I am a bit conflicted on this, as it doesn’t feel like the good moment to lecture anyone… at the same time, if this is an opportunity to get a few more folks to listen, it’s wrong to let it go as it may prevent someone else from repeating this ruinous path, repeated all too many times by all too many people as it is. So, with that in mind, I want to offer a few points to ponder.

    1. Beware of someone whose one answer to everything is gold.
    2, Beware of someone who think there is one answer to everything.
    3. Your answer to everything is that there is no single answer to everything.
    4. Whenever you find answer to something, verify it by charts.
    5. Learn to read the charts as, not being an answer, they help you test your answer and instruct you how to act.
    6. Whenever your thinking and charts are in conflict, go by charts (a.k.a., Trade what you see, not what you think).
    7. Whenever you see, read or experience cult-like conviction in any trading vehicle not changing with charts’ change, that’s losing side of the trade.
    8. Whenever you see, read or experience conviction that any adverse movement is caused or explained by manipulation, that’s losing side of the trade.
    9. Everything is a trading vehicle and obeys the laws of the market, whether market is real or manufactured; nothing is above the laws of the market and thus cult-worthy.

  • jdpeak(118101 comments)-
    March 2, 2013 at 3:05 pm

    Good morning
    Does anyone have insight into a potential correlations between the gold and coal miners? Both trapped in a long death march down. Any possibility that a swing low may be on the horizon for the coal miners?
    Bill commented weeks to months back coal is a strategic metal and the admin. attack on it may be misplaced. Sentiment and RSI in the coal miners appear extreme.Any thing positive for the coal miners?
    long $ACI
    Thanks

  • BOB 47(118101 comments)-
    March 2, 2013 at 4:00 pm

    The turmoil in Italy is led by three political parties that have almost nothing in common . one wants the Euro another to revert back to the Lire . I think this dissension will boost the dollar at least temporally . http://tinyurl.com/accd47y

  • Vadym Graifer(118101 comments)-
    March 2, 2013 at 4:39 pm
  • Bill Cara(118101 comments)-
    March 2, 2013 at 11:18 pm

    … is up.

    Off to the PDAC convention.

    Will be reporting every day.

  • baz22(118101 comments)-
    March 3, 2013 at 1:44 am
  • JimG(118101 comments)-
    March 3, 2013 at 3:18 am
  • loannetter(118101 comments)-
    March 3, 2013 at 4:05 am

    Dave, Grym, and others interested in the magical world of housing:

    Those funny guys over at the National Real Estate Post have uncovered another stinker: consultants bagging $1.5B of the cash settlements the OCC earmarked for bilked and distressed homeowners. Fast forward to 48 secs in to skip the ads:

    http://thenationalrealestatepost.com/2013/02/28/wh

  • Vadym Graifer(118101 comments)-
    March 3, 2013 at 5:21 pm
  • NYUGrad(118101 comments)-
    March 3, 2013 at 6:43 pm

    Hope everyone is well.

    I had dinner with a few friends, one who sells mortgage products to consumers. He noted that companies like his, and others like quicken loans with wall st banks underwriting, are minting money right now selling fha loans and refinances to folks who only have 3.5% down payment, or are refinancing paid off homes, to fund their retirement because they have no retirement after the dot com crash and 2008 crash.

    Interesting times…”there is nothing new on wall st”

    the market seems to be consolidating but past leaders such as apple are done for a while. and new leaders like google, are poised for lift off.

    Another associate of mine works for Polk, the folks who track car sales data. He was very bullish as new car registrations have regained the peaks, prior to the 2008 crash. When i asked him what is driving this he gave me one obvious and one not so obvious answer. He said the Fed and the low interest rates for loans was primary driver. and secondly that the existing cars out on the road as a whole, are the oldest they have ever been and thus need servicing and costly maintenance.

    I actually beg to differ on reason 2. My current car was purchased last yr for $11k with 93,000 miles on the clock. the car is in excellent shape mechanically. Since i have no debt on the car, and gauging by how many miles i drive per yr, and the fact this car i bought can easily last 250,000 miles, i will save a lot of money not paying interest and not absorbing new car depreciation.

    If you currently own your car outright today, i urge you to keep up to date with routine maintenance and it will last you a looooong time. prob longer than you can imagine or want to keep the car.

    Then i began to think about the new cafe requirement; by 2025 mpg for new cars will be mandatory over 50mpg. But what if our currency by 2025 is in shambles, and gas is $15 per gallon, and income doesnt adjust for inflation? Will American’s still be in love with the automobile? will 50mpg be any better than what we have today? Will that economic condition finally help alternative fuel vehicles?

    Whether the markets are regathering more energy to go higher or giving up, is anyone’s guess. But i do not believe the govts of the world will stop printing. But as you can see with action in gold/metals and poor miners, price discovery is not a mission statement of the stock markets.

    In addition i sense a depreciation of morality in this country. an ‘every man for himself’ mentality. where we depend on govt and care of only ourselves. everywhere i look its about the facade people portray on social networks and the glamour portrayed through celebrity worship and sports.

    If anyone has read the Hunger Games, it sometimes feels like i live in the capital of Panem. Where jobs and growth is still occurring somewhat in NYC (now DC is the new wall st). But other areas of the country like California, Chicago, Detroit, etc are in a spiral south.

    As the govt clamps down on the 2nd amendment, i hope you realize America is the last place on earth where it’s citizens have a right to bear arms, to keep their own govt in check. as this right erodes, i am already fearful what future lays ahead.

    In a world of glitz of NYC, there have been an increase in crime the past months. from rapes, burglaries, robberies, suicides on the subways, etc. it reminds me of the crime i saw here as a child in the 80s.

    I hope you are well in your corner of the world. We are going to have to stick together, communicate, and be leaders in our communities to fight the good fight against some of the large/connected/invisible enemies threatening social equity around the world.

  • Les(118101 comments)-
    March 3, 2013 at 7:02 pm
  • Bill Cara(118101 comments)-
    March 3, 2013 at 7:23 pm

    Same old… but more people and more exhibitors. Better organized. Today is a more relaxed day. Monday am gets tough.

    First thing I noticed is that all the large mining companies are here and visible. Nobody I talked to so far — including any of the newsletter writers — seems to have a clue why gold and silver and the mining stocks have crashed to this extent. Some think the pain will get worse. Most think this is the time to buy, and I agree with that.

    Already agreed to do a conference in Bahamas in Eleuthera in Feb 2014 with David Skarica (Addicted to Profits). He moved there from Nassau — for many of the same reasons I moved. Eleuthera btw is a great place. We took kaimu there the year he came to the Nassau conference in 2009.

    Met with V.K. Misar, Sr. Mining Geologist, representing the Govt of India. Large booth. I’ll be back before the convention is over.

    Met with a delegation of four from China.

    Talked with an investment banker from Germany who is also setting up a bank in Costa Rica.

    You cannot meet people like this if you don’t come.

    Hospitality tonight is from CPM Group and also PDAC Media. I’m sure I’ll find a few more.

    I’m doing this on a tiny netbook, so the typos will be worse than ever!

  • NYUGrad(118101 comments)-
    March 3, 2013 at 7:37 pm

    I learned this phrase here. but in practice learned this in the 90s as i interned while at nyu at one of the largest brokerage firms on wall st. now part of Bank of America.

    There are many terms and titles, and comp plans have changed since then, some thankfully aligning with longer term client objectives.

    but the majority of the activity today is still rooted in sales. Most “financial advisors” will and do get required certifications. But if you cannot sell or persuade individuals to part with their money, the business and or new career will never flourish.

    That is why i value the learnings here and teachings of Bill, Vad, and community the most. No one should care more about your money than you.

    Many individuals who work with brokers from the large hb&b brands do not even realize that the advisor on the other end of the phone is the trained navy seal of sales people.

    There is a new movie being made right now, starring leanardo decaprio, playing the role of Jordan Belfort, “the Wolf of Wall Street.” Do you know what Jordan does today? He is known now for his motivational seminars on “Closing” and sales strategies. and warns to only utilize his techniques on people who should be taking action that you are suggesting.

    Learn to take emotion out of your trading plan, because there are many wolves still among us.

    Intro Straight Line Closing system by the Wolf of Wall St: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HscyUXtVWU

    Jordan Belfort – The Single Most Important Skill You Can Master: Persuasion
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9GxrzE9Q_o

  • Les(118101 comments)-
    March 3, 2013 at 7:48 pm

    Gold rolling over is getting noticed – duh – but the charts that caught my eye are in the currency space. Looking at Schnell pull out the time frames on a number of G12 currencies:

    http://blogs.stockcharts.com/canada/2013/03/iceber

    The chart that really got my attention is the 2004 – 2013 downtrend on Uncle Buck that is about to be tested, with the same multi year charts in commodities that are neutral to nearly bearish in the case of gold. Those are monthly bars on this chart.

    http://blogs.stockcharts.com/.a/6a0105370026df970c

    Uncle Buck about to come roaring back, or has this been the head fake that precludes continued respect of trendline resistance? I suspect this years “sell in May and go away” may take on special signifance at what looks like a critical junction for the dollar. We shall see.

  • Les(118101 comments)-
    March 3, 2013 at 7:59 pm
  • GW(118101 comments)-
    March 3, 2013 at 8:23 pm

    Good times roll again…for some: Inside the first Goldman Sachs partners’ dinner in SIX YEARS as lavish parties return for bankers

    Prior to the global economic meltdown Goldman Sachs were renowned for it’s lavish gala dinners for it most profitable bankers
    Goldman hosted its first event since the crash last month
    It was a lavish affair with 450 bankers and their partners flown in from around the world to attend
    Earlier this year the investment bank posted a $2.9 billion quarterly profit

    http://tinyurl.com/chp8je8

  • Bill Cara(118101 comments)-
    March 4, 2013 at 3:36 am

    Home early tonight so that’s a good sign.

    Met people today from every hemisphere.

    Tomorrow the business starts!

  • Leave A Comment

    You must be logged in to post a comment.