Bill Cara 2008-08-29T14:23:17Z Capital Markets and Social Equity ... perspective and discussion. tag:www.billcara.com,2008://1 Movable Type Copyright (c) 2008, billcara Bill Cara's Community Chat, Fri., Aug. 29, 2008, 9:24am ET 2008-08-29T14:23:17Z 2008-08-29T14:24:13Z tag:www.billcara.com,2008://1.4186 2008-08-29T14:24:13Z Well, the Democratic convention did become the highlight of my day yesterday, and I’ll admit it – for a different reason than some of you will want to hear.... billcara http://www.billcara.com billcara3@gmail.com Community Chat Well, the Democratic convention did become the highlight of my day yesterday, and I’ll admit it – for a different reason than some of you will want to hear.

]]> Immediately following the end of Barack Obama’s speech, which clearly was impressive in the eyes of independent and objective reporters as well as to his cheering Democratic supporters, we received the Republican response. It came from politicians, lobbyists, and some Republican-biased media. Rather than state the obvious, and go on to encourage the public to see what their own convention, starting Monday, will do, they ripped Obama’s performance apart.

In my eyes, surveying the bigger picture, I see a beaten people rallying around a single black person who is trying to pick them up, and on the other side the slavers who continue to support the notion that the people are their chattels. I addressed this latter point on November 24, 2005 in a separate blog.

I believe that Barack Obama is part of the revolution that is coming in America, which gets underway in November. Moreover, I believe the slavers understand this too, and have been pulling their capital out of domestic banks and industrial companies referred to as Big Business. In fact, I believe this process started with the out-sourcing of American jobs; the real estate bubble; the debt bubble; the hiring of Treasury Secretary Paulson and so many others from Goldman Sachs into positions of public authority; the hyping of the banking sector (XLF) in the market in 2H06 and 1Q07 (immediately after Paulson went to DC); in the massive share buy-backs and vastly increased dividends; the oil bubble; and in the amazing turnabout in the fortunes of John McCain who had run out of campaign funds one weekend and was ready to quit.

It all came together for me last night when I listened to what was billed as the Republican response.

America will change in November, and so too will the market. Last night, Obama told us how. The beneficiaries will be small and mid-sized business (the Russell 2000 over the DJIA/S&P 500), alt energy, educational facilities, and other programs he talked about.

America is the world leader and the People will see it stays that way after November. As I stated a couple days ago, “It’s all about us, stupid.”

Last night, Obama said, “I get it,” but I think he got it some 20 years ago when he started his community work in the Chicago south-side. He was boot-strapping a beaten people then, learning his profession, and now he’ll do the same for America.

As capital floods into America from abroad, I foresee a stronger Dollar, a stronger nation.

Have a good day.


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Daily Report for Fri, Aug 29, 2008 2008-08-29T14:35:15Z 2008-08-29T14:16:52Z tag:www.billcara.com,2008://1.4185 2008-08-29T14:16:52Z Markets Re-cap Despite the lowest trading volume of the year, there was a push to the equity market in NY following an upbeat US GDP report. The DJIA index closed the session at its high.... billcara http://www.billcara.com billcara3@gmail.com Daily Report

Markets Re-cap

Despite the lowest trading volume of the year, there was a push to the equity market in NY following an upbeat US GDP report. The DJIA index closed the session at its high.

]]> Just like the previous day, almost from the open on Thursday, the US equity market was stronger. At the close, the DJIA (+212.67 +1.85% to 11715.18), S&P 500 (+19.02 +1.48% to 1300.68), and NASDAQ Composite (+29.18 +1.22% to 2411.64) were up about +1.5% on average. That’s about what you will earn in a money market fund in a year.

In Canada, the Toronto Exchange Composite gained +1.62% to 13750, and the Venture Board gained +0.71% to 1964.

The winning sectors in NY were Financials (XLF +4.0%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.3%), while Energy (XLE -1.8%) did a turn-about from the previous two days.

The Banks ($BKX +4.5%) and Broker-Dealers ($XBD +4.0%) led the way. Airlines ($XAL) soared +8.7% due to the lower oil price. NatGas ($XNG -1.5%) was soft.

A 52-week low was set by China Mobile (CHL (@57.42). What a terrible three month performance in the market for CHL.

Of the extreme Cara 100 stocks, the winners were RY +5.3%, OXPS +4.8%, VIP and WBK +4.6% and CCL +4.3%. CHL -6.0%, POT -2.8%, CHA -2.3% and DELL -2.3% were losers, but, except for CHL, volumes were down. DELL reported disappointing earnings and operating margins.

The long bond ($USB) was quiet again, almost flat (-0.01%) at 118.78. The T-Bill yield strengthened to 1.700, but is still well below the benchmark Fed Funds rate, so the market is saying that traders are nervous and generally unprepared to make longer-term investment commitments.

Earlier today, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were all up sharply across the board. Call it the Obama factor. The closes were: Australia’s All Ords index (+1.40% to 5215.5); Shanghai (+2.01% to 2397.4); Hong Kong (+1.38% to 21261.9); India’s Sensex (+3.67% to 14564.5); and Japan’s Nikkei (+2.39% to 13072.9). These are major bullish moves.

In Europe at about 9:00am ET, markets are not as strong, with the French CAC +0.5% to 4485, German DAX +0.02% to 6422, and the UK FTSE +0.4% to 5624.

Yesterday the forex market was quiet, with the Euro weakening a tad: the $USD gained +0.13% to 77.12, and the Euro lost -0.19% to 1.4701.

Crude Oil ($WTIC +0.28/bbl to 118.43) and precious metals ($GOLD +0.03/oz to 834.03) were quiet. [Apparently my data here was wrong yesterday]

At 9:00am ET today, the Euro/USD was up a bit to 1.4710, while the $USD is down to 77.11. Crude Oil futures ($WTIC) are up +1.61/bbl to 117.20, mostly due to Gustav. The DJIA Sept futures are down -38 to 11657. Traders are looking forward to the long weekend.

At 9:06am ET, Spot Gold, palladium, platinum and silver futures are a tad stronger, at 835.85 (actually down less than a dollar at the moment), 298.0, 1472, and 13.76 respectively, which are stronger along with oil and a slightly lower $USD.


Comments & Outlook

Without 1-800-HOPE and a $90 billion free-money program from the Administration, today’s US Personal Income and Spending report turned out to be a disaster. Yesterday, the public was told that the US economy is really growing at a +3.3% rate, revised up from +1.9%, but the people don’t see much more than the little bit of found money that fell from trees in DC in Q2.

The equity market is being pumped by Humungous Bank & Broker so they can save their bacon. Day traders don’t mind, but further out, the serious weaknesses in the US economic and financial systems will have to be recognized and dealt with.

I remain unchanged in my outlook for a long-term cycle bottom of 10000/2000 for the DJIA and NASDAQ Composite. There are continuous fights between the Bulls and Bears, so this battle is extended. For many of the leaders of HB&B, this is a reprieve in that they can defer taking write-offs while they constantly work behind the scenes to repair their capital issues and restructure their operations.

[note that the Knobias tables downloaded by Jeff and presented below are different than the ones I use, which are the correct ones. Unfortunately, Jeff is still using a file that is six months old and shows LEH in the Cara 100 watch list. No, LEH is on my deathwatch list maybe as the company fell apart in my eyes a long time ago. I apologize for the confusion.]


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
LEH 15.870 +1.090 +7.4 35.6M
UBS 22.160 +1.150 +5.5 3.7M
RY 45.640 +2.280 +5.3 1.1M
OXPS 23.390 +1.080 +4.8 754.5K
VIP 24.190 +1.070 +4.6 4M
WBK 102.180 +4.500 +4.6 16.4K
CCL 37.780 +1.550 +4.3 4.9M
GS 161.830 +6.350 +4.1 8.6M
VCP 21.200 +0.820 +4 539.9K
MBT 68.660 +2.520 +3.8 1.6M
WAG 36.520 +1.240 +3.5 6.8M
KSS 49.930 +1.620 +3.4 4.9M
JCP 39.040 +1.240 +3.3 3.6M
DOW 34.640 +1.010 +3 5M
CHRW 53.010 +1.520 +3 1.5M
BC 13.760 +0.390 +2.9 897.2K
BA 66.340 +1.820 +2.8 4.4M
IBN 30.800 +0.840 +2.8 3.3M
GOL 8.810 +0.240 +2.8 571.6K
ABB 24.510 +0.650 +2.7 5.2M
DIS 32.590 +0.830 +2.6 9.7M
NKE 61.220 +1.550 +2.6 2.3M
BDK 62.340 +1.570 +2.6 418.3K
UTX 66.720 +1.670 +2.6 3.6M
SBUX 15.980 +0.390 +2.5 5.2M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
CHL 57.820 -3.690 -6 6.2M
CHA 51.390 -1.210 -2.3 243.6K
DELL 25.210 -0.420 -1.6 45.7M
CEO 154.580 -2.380 -1.5 530.9K
KB 54.650 -0.830 -1.5 442.2K
ABX 35.020 -0.480 -1.4 7.8M
STO 30.770 -0.410 -1.3 1.3M
KO 53.120 -0.670 -1.2 10.4M
RIMM 126.650 -1.570 -1.2 14.7M
TS 55.130 -0.510 -0.9 1.4M
SU 57.090 -0.460 -0.8 4.8M
TGP 22.690 -0.150 -0.7 113.3K
PDA 49.060 -0.310 -0.6 122K
ECA 74.690 -0.320 -0.4 4M
NOK 25.840 -0.110 -0.4 8.1M
IMO 51.930 -0.220 -0.4 350.8K
GG 34.130 -0.140 -0.4 6.7M
WFMI 18.250 -0.060 -0.3 3.6M
EXC 77.140 -0.220 -0.3 2M
PBR 53.060 -0.140 -0.3 11.1M
PTR 130.660 -0.330 -0.3 567.4K
QCOM 53.970 -0.110 -0.2 9.6M
CTSH 29.700 -0.060 -0.2 3.2M
TOT 72.250 -0.090 -0.1 1.5M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NONE FOUND.

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
CHL 57.420 57.820 -3.690 -6.00 6.17M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
CHL 57.820 -6 6.2M +129
DELL 25.210 -1.6 45.7M +107
RY 45.640 +5.3 1.1M +54
DB 86.000 +2.4 1.1M +25
WAG 36.520 +3.5 6.8M +22
ABB 24.510 +2.7 5.2M +22
KO 53.120 -1.2 10.4M +15
VIP 24.190 +4.6 4M +15
BMY 21.640 +0.6 11.9M +14

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
NONE FOUND.
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
CHL JP Morgan --- --- Overweight Underweight
KO CSFB 60.00 57.00 Outperform Neutral
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NOK WestLB --- --- Buy Hold


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
WMT59.8881.8168.4463.13
NTES26.5574.4075.6667.43Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-08-26 at $26.30, +0.95% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
DNA98.4572.9584.8163.26Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-08-20 at $97.99, +0.47% chg], after a 18 day DZ)
QCOM53.9771.6263.2545.93
JNJ71.4171.3180.7466.64Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-08-25 at $70.80, +0.86% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
PG71.0161.0479.4061.02
TGT53.8852.5368.7472.08
KSS49.9351.5072.1160.68
ERJ33.7341.0057.7170.08
UBS22.1619.8648.0571.94

At least one RSI value <30:
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
WFMI18.2512.5615.1337.61Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-08-27 at $18.31, -0.33% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
GOL8.8115.7425.8940.06Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-08-28 at $8.81, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
TM88.7018.7639.3448.42
UBS22.1619.8648.0571.94
TTM9.7922.3236.3253.17
TGP22.6923.1629.7752.31Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-08-22 at $22.16, +2.39% chg], after a 3 day AZ)
SNDK15.1724.1635.0748.10
DB86.0026.9732.3147.65Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-08-22 at $85.69, +0.36% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
KB54.6527.7535.2244.15
GRMN35.5528.9130.2441.50
VCP21.2033.1720.3542.07
CCJ30.3136.8325.9450.24
CHL57.8237.3821.2735.97


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
C 19.08 0.96 5.30% 9.22% 5.53% 2.09% -34.02% -11.67% -23.71% -58.65%
AXP 40.39 1.57 4.04% 9.13% 5.73% 8.81% -20.87% -12.48% -9.07% -29.57%
AIG 21.51 1.51 7.55% 8.75% -5.74% -17.43% -61.79% -38.38% -57.11% -67.02%
BAC 31.43 1.78 6.00% 8.23% 4.14% -4.47% -22.51% -7.20% -24.12% -36.71%
JPM 38.88 1.74 4.68% 7.23% 2.83% -4.31% -7.80% -9.29% -8.39% -10.83%
T 32.23 1.03 3.30% 4.78% 3.57% 4.61% -21.39% -18.43% -10.37% -16.91%
MRK 36.40 0.67 1.88% 4.54% 1.28% 10.64% -36.55% -5.85% -19.47% -26.03%
BA 66.34 1.82 2.82% 4.39% 2.42% 8.56% -23.41% -19.23% -21.77% -30.64%
CAT 71.68 2.12 3.05% 4.34% 1.98% 3.11% 1.49% -13.84% -3.64% -3.34%
GM 10.34 0.14 1.37% 4.23% -8.90% -6.59% -57.64% -39.71% -57.80% -64.56%
UTX 66.72 1.67 2.57% 3.91% 0.91% 4.28% -11.29% -5.00% -7.55% -7.33%
HD 27.42 0.25 0.92% 3.20% 0.92% 15.07% 5.02% -0.04% -1.05% -21.77%
MSFT 27.94 0.38 1.38% 2.80% 0.11% 8.63% -20.67% -0.85% 0.04% 0.04%
VZ 35.47 0.76 2.19% 2.60% 2.25% 4.20% -17.91% -6.09% -4.60% -14.57%
DD 45.27 0.93 2.10% 2.51% 0.07% 3.33% 3.50% -4.95% -4.17% -5.92%
DIS 32.59 0.83 2.61% 2.39% 0.80% 7.38% 2.36% -3.75% 0.15% -1.84%
WMT 59.88 0.59 1.00% 2.36% 3.06% 2.15% 27.68% 4.89% 18.11% 37.97%
INTC 23.59 0.18 0.77% 2.34% -3.16% 6.31% -6.94% 0.51% 15.13% -1.54%
MMM 72.50 1.78 2.52% 2.24% -0.74% 3.00% -12.34% -5.72% -9.15% -17.26%
HPQ 47.33 0.53 1.13% 1.89% 4.02% 5.65% -4.98% 1.74% -2.51% 0.96%
PG 71.01 0.95 1.36% 1.59% 1.86% 8.45% -1.80% 9.47% 6.03% 9.75%
IBM 124.58 1.20 0.97% 1.29% -1.86% -2.66% 19.00% -3.83% 8.10% 11.23%
XOM 81.18 0.71 0.88% 1.03% 4.82% 0.93% -13.19% -10.23% -9.17% -2.19%
MCD 62.89 0.81 1.30% 0.93% -1.12% 5.18% 8.24% 7.16% 15.14% 29.30%
AA 32.40 0.32 1.00% 0.81% 1.69% -4.00% -10.32% -22.06% -17.18% -8.37%
GE 28.83 0.61 2.16% 0.28% -2.34% 1.91% -21.57% -5.63% -14.83% -24.23%
JNJ 71.41 0.20 0.28% 0.18% 0.31% 4.29% 8.34% 10.06% 13.87% 16.59%
PFE 19.27 0.19 1.00% -0.52% -2.58% 3.21% -15.89% -0.16% -14.55% -21.25%
KO 53.12 -0.67 -1.25% -0.73% -3.45% 3.15% -13.05% -7.52% -10.66% -0.26%
CVX 87.18 0.56 0.65% -1.51% 0.69% 3.10% -6.72% -13.18% -2.07% 3.42%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLF 21.35 0.83 4.04% 7.02% 0.90% -1.16% -24.72% -13.46% -20.25% -35.54%
IYZ 24.08 0.53 2.25% 3.17% 1.47% 3.13% -17.45% -8.96% -1.27% -25.54%
XLI 35.66 0.82 2.35% 3.03% 0.73% 3.42% -7.40% -7.26% -4.32% -6.58%
XLY 30.82 0.70 2.32% 2.77% -0.23% 8.44% -4.29% -3.51% -4.05% -13.57%
SPY 130.19 1.56 1.21% 1.85% 0.45% 2.65% -10.17% -6.54% -4.87% -9.41%
XLU 38.38 0.23 0.60% 1.67% 4.27% 0.79% -8.81% -6.71% -0.95% 1.00%
SMH 29.16 0.36 1.25% 1.32% -4.24% 4.52% -7.02% -10.77% -0.98% -19.67%
XLK 23.27 0.14 0.61% 1.17% -1.48% 4.35% -10.91% -6.99% 2.92% -7.51%
IYH 67.17 0.60 0.90% 0.34% -1.12% 3.05% -4.18% 5.46% 0.96% -0.64%
XLB 40.03 0.53 1.34% 0.33% 1.60% -0.67% -3.08% -10.67% -5.32% 4.93%
XLP 28.43 0.19 0.67% 0.32% -0.80% 3.76% 0.14% 1.07% 2.82% 6.52%
XLE 75.13 -1.06 -1.39% -1.57% 3.94% 0.89% -5.50% -14.15% -4.57% 12.55%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol