The US retail stores sales data was terrible. Traders are not thinking mañana ; they sold Consumer Discretionary stocks (XLY) down -8.8%. Bankers too were being squeezed as T-Bill yields dropped almost to zero (annual yield of +0.22%). People fall into two camps: (i) no money, or (ii) unwilling to risk the money they do have.

There was an interesting discussion this weekend, I took note of.

[Don Coxe interview in Nov 10 Barron’s] “Stocks are cheap but they can get cheaper; we know that. We got back to the Dow having a multiple of 5.9 in December of '74, which was the foundation of Warren Buffett's wealth because he started buying at that level. The Dow isn't anywhere near 5.9 (its multiple last week was 11), but some of my favorite stocks are trading at lower P/Es than that. I can tell you they are the fertilizer, oil and agricultural companies.”

“When I came back from a trip two years ago, I said the biggest commodity story is going to be food, bigger than the other ones. It is high-protein food. The way to play that is through the fertilizer stocks, the genetically modified seed stocks and the farm-equipment stocks.”

My response: Other analysts have also compared this market to 1974 PEs. It is a different situation entirely. The stagflation in the 1970's was much higher, with bank rates often in the mid-teens, and it sucked the PEs right out of the market. I have no clue why analysts don't look at the data… But, I do like Don's picks.

Apparently, Don (the BMO strategist) likes, in order: (1) agriculture, (2) gold, (3) energy.

I do agree with his picks. But I also believe the broad market PEs are right where they should be in a long-term cycle bottom phase. Also, it’s the cash flow per share multiple that is more important today as cash is king.

There are so many junior oil and gas companies that are selling at minuscule cash flow multiples, and have very low debt service costs. Obviously, if the companies are in North America, they have no trouble selling their products. As traders start to take on more risk, the junior energy stocks will soar.

And I agree that food is going to be in huge demand, which makes the need for fertilizer a given. In China for instance, I think the government has committed to a policy of moving hundreds of millions of people from their tiny farms to homes in the city, which will help (i) create a broader-based consumer economy, and (ii) organize the development of large farms like in the US, which are far more efficient. That policy will help the fertilizer companies and the manufacturers of farm machinery.

As for gold, I see that governments around the world have been working out economic rescue programs. The problem there is that money doesn’t come on trees. It’s expensive. You can print it from paper from trees, but the cost in devaluation of what it represents is very high. Nobody more than Americans are committed to these bail-out programs. So, ultimately the winners will be those who avoid bonds and who buy physical commodities and gold.

So, I do think Don Coxe is making mostly accurate statements.

It was an interesting week, so let’s have a look. After publishing this WIR, I have to start on the Goldcorp (GG) report I promised. It will be available by link to my server, which I will publish in a separate blog. I don’t have the time to e-mail this report. Moreover, the report will be so large in file size that most email servers would reject it. The terabyte demands on my server ought to soar today and tomorrow!

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Global Economics Review

Weekly International Economic Report .

I encourage everybody to read these reports from Econoday and discuss them in the Discourse, but check the publishing date if you are looking for the latest data. The current issues, when posted, are good ones.

The macro-economic news is used to spin the audience. We all know that. Traders pay close attention to the data, which ought to be taken only by private sector sources and filed with SEC, and released by the SEC in the pre-market hours, all at once, before trading is permitted to start. Common sense dictates this.

Where are the people in government who have common sense?

You know, I continue to list the requirements for a fair and equitable capital market. But, vested interests control the market and that nonsense must stop. The average person in the marketplace has now reached a level of sophistication high enough to see that CNBC should be renamed Spin City and that Talking Heads are puppets. Their skepticism of some of the data reported by government especially has turned many into cynics. This is not healthy for the proper functioning of capital markets.

President-elect Obama must clean up this mess asap because without the necessary changes – all based on common sense -- the public market will no longer be a source of capital that government and industry needs. I don’t think international governments and industry want to be dictated to by the likes of the few people who presently control so-called “private equity.”

So, one piece of advice to the President-elect, and that is to stop saying the capital market is free. It isn’t. The people know that and they are fed to the teeth. You campaigned on change; please live up to your word or it’s going to be a very short honeymoon.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Economic Calendar.

On Tuesday, the US voters went to the polls in record numbers. With a clear mandate, the people elected a new President, Barak Obama, and a significant number of new members of Congress. As Obama is a black man, the cheering could be heard from around the world. Possibly never before in US presidential politics have there been more cheers and tears of pure elation from the people.

This was a moment in history that, like it or not, we will remember the moment until we pass. As for me, I had turned the TV on mute an hour before the announcement by the TV networks. I was so engrossed in work that I was startled by the screams of people in the area. Startled, I ran outside to see what it was all about.

Yes, here in Bahamas, this place went mad. You see; 85% of the people here are black and they are proud of the color of their skin. To them, Obama represents affirmation of their deep-rooted values. Not only proud, the people of this country are self-confident; they enthusiastically integrate people from all over the world regardless of color. Moreover, the US Dollar is used in the streets here interchangeably with B dollars. It’s the law – just like there is no income tax, personal or corporate, foreign or domestic. There is no discrimination. Truly, there is no country in the world like this.

This week, the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) announced their monetary policy decisions. BoE dropped their rate by -150 basis points to 3.0% and ECB cut -50 bp from 3.75% to 3.25%. Both are trying hard to both fight inflation and stem the recession. Stagflation is an equity market killer.

Let’s have a look at this past week’s economic data.

US Economic Calendar.

US ISM Manufacturing Report for October. Econoday reported, “In deeply recessionary results, the ISM's manufacturing index fell to 38.9 in October, down nearly 5 points from September and far below the break-even 50 level to indicate that a much greater share of purchasing managers are reporting weakness than strength. Readings are alarming, down to levels last seen in the early 80s. Order data have come apart, pointing to quarter-to-quarter contraction for the manufacturing sector: new orders 32.2 Oct. vs. 38.8 Sep. and backlog orders 29.5 vs. 35.0. Even export orders, which had held solidly above 50 and had been the report's only highlight, fell 11 points to 41.0 in a reflection of dollar strength and weakening demand from foreign economies. Production fell nearly 7 points to 34.1 with employment in lockstep at 34.6 for a drop of more than 7 points. The drop in demand is backing up inventory where readings show pressure… The prices paid reading confirms weakness in demand, down more than 15 points to 37.0. The outlook for the manufacturing sector is definitely a concern for the whole economy, largely the result of weakness in domestic consumer demand. Keep a special watch this week for vehicle and chain-store reports as early indications point to similar trouble seen into today's ISM report. There was limited reaction to the report though money did move into Treasuries.”

US Factory Orders for October. Econoday reported: “The plunge in energy prices may be a plus for the economic outlook but it sank the dollar value of orders for nondurable goods in September and in turn for total factory orders which fell 2.5 percent. Orders for nondurable goods fell 5.5 percent in the month following a 3.2 percent plunge in August. Orders for durable goods actually rebounded in September, up 0.9 percent vs. a 5.5 percent plunge in August and against an initial estimate of a 0.8 percent gain.

There are no details offered in this report for nondurable goods but a rehashing on the durable side is in order given deep concern over the health of the manufacturing sector, concern heightened by a rare 30 handle for yesterday's ISM index. Orders for defense and transportations goods propped up the month though orders for nondefense capital goods, reflecting strength in machinery, were strong. But other categories were weak including furniture, computers and primary metals. Manufacturers in the latter category have been on the news wires warning that conditions plunged in October… Other readings in the report include a 2.8 percent drop in total shipments. Shipments, which were down also in August, are of course when sales are tallied and when the data are registered in the GDP accounts. Unfilled orders are still a positive, up 0.4 percent in the month and showing no sign yet of cancellations. Inventories fell back 0.7 percent which is an important positive that reduces the risk of overhang, a greater risk than ever given the prospect of weakening orders and weakening shipments… The end of the Boeing strike and replacement demand tied to the Hurricanes Ike and Gustav may give a lift to factory data in October and through year end. But the lift is not likely to be enough given the collapse underway in retail sales, which of course will cut demand for consumer goods and the machinery and materials needed to make them. There was no reaction in the financial markets.”

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Report for October. Econoday reported, “The biggest news from a very weak ISM non-manufacturing report is a more than 3 point drop in the employment index to 41.5. This is a record low for the index which tracks very closely with actual payroll changes and points, as do a host of other indicators, to big trouble for Friday's employment report. Other readings included a nearly 6 point drop in the headline composite index to 44.4, and similar drops in the business activity and new orders indexes. Prices paid fell back nearly 20 points to 53.4, further confirmation of weak demand and pointing away from the risk of inflation. Money moved into Treasuries and out of the dollar in immediate reaction to the report.”

US Productivity and Costs estimates for Q3. Econoday reported, “Productivity and labor costs in the third quarter deteriorated, reflecting a drop in output and jump in compensation. Third quarter productivity slowed to an annualized 1.1 percent increase, following a 3.6 percent gain in the second quarter. The third quarter rise was above the market forecast for a 0.8 percent annualized gain. The stronger-than-expected positive number was due to hours worked falling more than output. Meanwhile, unit labor costs rebounded to a 2.3 percent annualized increase, following a modest 0.8 percent rise in the second quarter. The third quarter cost figure was higher than the consensus projections for a 2.8 percent boost… Compensation per hour jumped 4.7 percent, after a 3.5 percent hike in the second quarter… Year-on-year, productivity was up 2.0 percent in the third quarter, following a 3.2 percent increase the prior quarter. Year-on-year, unit labor costs in the third quarter stood at up 2.3 percent, compared to up 0.8 percent for the second quarter. Compensation rose 4.3 percent on a year-ago basis - up from 4.0 percent in the second quarter… The latest productivity and costs numbers largely reflect businesses adjusting to the current recession. Hours worked are being but back as output falls. The jump in compensation is good for consumers but that growth is not likely to last. Overall, the numbers are not good for either equities or bonds.”

US Employment Report for October. Econoday reported, “The October jobs report came in significantly worse than expected - showing an acceleration in the pace of contraction for the economy. Nonfarm payroll employment in October plummeted another 240,000, following a revised drop of 284,000 in September and a revised decrease of 127,000 in August. Payroll jobs have fallen for ten consecutive months. The October decline in nonfarm employment was notably worse than the market forecast for a 200,000 decrease. The August and September numbers were revised down a net 179,000. For the year-to-date, the economy has lost 1.2 million jobs net… Indeed, the October report shows labor market weakness spreading. The latest job losses were widespread with few positives. The October drop was led by manufacturing and construction which fell by 90,000 and 49,000, respectively. Rounding out the goods-producing sector, natural resources & mining rose 7,000 in the latest month… Service-providing jobs fell 108,000 after sliding 201,000 in September. In this category, trade & transportation dropped 67,000 while professional & businesses services declined 45,000. The only major categories with gains were education & health services and government-up 21,000 and 23,000, respectively… On a year-on-year basis, nonfarm payroll employment growth worsened to down 0.8 percent in October from down 0.5 percent in September… Average weekly hours were unchanged at 33.6 hours in October. However, wage inflation is holding steady and is a little on the soft side. Average hourly earnings posted a 0.2 percent rise in October, matching both the boost the month before and the market forecast. Year-on-year, wages were up 3.5 percent in October - firming only slightly from 3.4 percent in September… Turning to the household survey, the civilian unemployment rate jumped to 6.5 percent in October from 6.1 percent the month before. The latest number was higher than the consensus forecast for a rise to 6.3 percent and was the highest since 6.5 percent set in March 1994… The October employment report shows the economy in a significant recession. The numbers should weigh heavily on equities and likely result in flight to safety with Treasuries. More specifically, we can expect more retrenchment by the consumer sector over job losses and fears of job losses. It is likely to be a disappointing holiday season for retailers.”

US Pending Home Sales for September. Econoday reported, “Pending home sales fell back in September, down 4.6 percent and reversing some of August's big gain of 7.5 percent (+7.4 percent initially reported). The index level of 89.2 is still above July's 87.0 and compares favorably with 87.8 in September 2007. Home sales have been down for so long and so deeply that longer term comparisons are very easy, an indication hinting, but only hinting, that conditions in the sector are bottoming or at least can't get much worse. The drop in September was centered in the Northeast and South with the West showing by far the best activity. Today's results unfortunately suggest that one month of improvement in existing and new home sales may in fact prove to be just one month of improvement. Existing and new home sales data for October will be posted at month end. There was no reaction to the results.”

US Consumer Credit for September. Econoday reported, “Outstanding consumer credit bounced back in September, up $6.9 billion from a rare decline in August of $6.3 billion (-$7.9 billion previously). The gain was centered in non-revolving credit which rose $5.9 billion from a $6.6 billion decline in August. Future gains in this component, which includes car loans and personal loans, are definitely uncertain given October's plunge in vehicle sales and the tightening credit squeeze. Part of this squeeze is evident in interest rates for car loans which jumped more than 100 basis points in the month to an average 6.24 percent. Non-revolving credit rose $0.9 billion from August's $0.4 billion gain. This is now a report where gains are hoped for, gains that would indicate the availability of credit at the consumer level.”

How is next week’s calendar looking?

US Economic Calendar.

US International trade report for September. After the release of the August data, Econoday reported, “The U.S. trade deficit in August narrowed notably - primarily due to a drop in oil imports. The overall U.S. trade gap narrowed to $59.1 billion from a revised $61.3 billion shortfall in July and came in slightly wider than the consensus forecast for a $59.0 billion gap. In August, exports dropped 2.0 percent while imports fell 2.4 percent. Meanwhile the nonoil goods deficit worsened to $33.6 billion from $29.3 billion in July. The disconcerting part of this report is the drop in exports. Based on growing weakness abroad, the U.S. is losing what had been a key source of strength. On the news, equities fell and rates rose… The August decline in exports of goods reflected decreases in automotive vehicles; industrial supplies & materials; consumer goods; and foods, feeds, & beverages. Increases were seen in capital goods and the other goods category… Helping to lower the oil deficit was a drop in oil prices. The average price of imported oil declined to $119.99 per barrel in August, easing off from July's record high of $124.66 per barrel… Year-on-year, overall exports were down to up 15.9 percent in August from 20.1 percent in July while imports eased to up 13.4 percent from up 16.3 percent in July… Again, the negative news from a broader perspective is the slowing in exports. For the near term, the numbers indicate that the net exports component of GDP will shrink, offsetting negatives elsewhere to some degree.”

I understand that Germany does more international trade than the USA, which would not be the case if Detroit was able to produce cars that could effectively compete against Mercedes, BMW and Volkswagen. This is not a marketing issue; it’s strictly one of inferior engineering. Detroit’s Big Three needs to enter the Formula One racing competition. A single car engineered from the best components manufactured in Detroit. What’s so hard about that? You win in F-1 and you’ll take back the leadership in global auto sales. These guys can’t even get NASCAR right. Team Toyota is taking over on the track as well as the local showroom, while Rick Wagoner and Alan Mulally stew.

Did you see the Business Week February 2003 cover: Wagoner’s GM Game Plan. What clap-trap. And, Mulally, who is an engineer, was criticized for calling a spade a spade when he remarked that the Lexus is the finest family car in the world. But why can’t he make one?

These are smart people, but the Germans and Japanese are eating their lunch. As they fail to perform, Detroit is sinking into the St. Clair River, and the auto leaders have now run to Washington for help.

Washington ought to help; rather than these mindless TV commercials, why not give a new unit of the Big Three a couple billion dollars to work together to create a Team Detroit for F-1 racing? And then tell them don’t come back to Washington until they’ve won a race, fair and square, against Team Toyota, Team Honda, Team Mercedes and Team BMW.

What happened to the American ethic of earning your way? The public is just fed up with these corporate hand-outs that pay for failure. It’s about time that the monthly US international trade deficit became a trade surplus.

US Import and Export Prices for October. After the September data was released, Econoday reported: “Import prices have come falling back steeply the last two months, reflecting lower energy prices but also slowing demand. Import prices fell 3.0 percent in September, the second severe drop in a row. The year-on-year change, though severe in the other direction at +14.5 percent, is still the lowest rate since February. Month-to-month, import prices were down across the board led by a 9.0 percent drop in petroleum products. Excluding petroleum, import prices posted a rare month-to-month dip, down 0.9 percent for a record decline and the first decline in a year-and-a-half. This reading is closely watched and indicates that price pressures are reversing… Export prices fell 1.0 percent in September following a 1.7 percent drop in August for a rare back-to-back dip. Year-on-year, export prices are up 6.8 percent, also the lowest rate since February… Cost pass through appears to have peaked, based on price readings for both exports and imports of both capital and consumers goods where prices, which had been on a steep climb earlier in the year, are beginning to retreat. Markets are not likely to pay too much attention to today's report which however does point away from the risks of inflation and offers support for central bank rate cuts to help the markets.”

US Retail Sales Report for October. After the September data was released, Econoday reported, “Retail sales in September came in far worse than expected, indicating that the consumer sector is in retreat. Weakness was led by autos. Overall retail sales fell 1.2 percent in September, following a 0.4 percent decline in August. The headline number was far more negative than the consensus forecast for a 0.6 percent drop. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales declined 0.6 percent in September, after a 0.9 percent drop the month before. The September ex-auto number was worse than the market forecast for a 0.3 percent decline. Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales decreased 0.7 percent, after slipping 0.6 percent the month before… Components were widely negative. Particularly weak were motor vehicles, down 3.8 percent; furniture, down 2.3 percent; and clothing, down, 2.3 percent… Overall retail sales on a year-on-year basis in September were down 1.0 percent - compared to up 1.5 percent in August. Excluding motor vehicles, the year-on-year gain came in at up 3.6 percent while excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, the year-ago increase stood at 1.6 percent… The September retail sales report shows a consumer sector that has pulled back over concerns over job losses and overall concern for the economy. Poor earnings reports and a negative Empire State manufacturing report added to today's dour mood for equities. Bond yields are likely to ease due to flight to safety.”

US Business Inventory Report for September. After the August data was released, Econoday reported, “Businesses are putting the brakes on inventories but it may not be fast enough given the size of the fall in sales. Business inventories rose 0.3 percent in August but business sales fell 1.8 percent, pushing up the stock-to-sales ratio by 3 tenths to 1.27… Inventories at retailers fell 0.6 percent with inventories at auto dealers, in a real plus, falling 1.6 percent. But dealer inventories, after swelling 3.1 percent in July, are still high, and supply chain problems may yet magnify the effects of the violent downshift underway in auto demand. A rise in inventories of building materials is definitely a concern given steep declines in sales that extend into this morning's retail sales report for September… Inventories may end up adding to third-quarter GDP but it won't be a positive for the economic outlook. Unwanted inventory is an imbalance that trips downswings in output and jobs.”

US Consumer Sentiment for November. After the October data was released by University of Michigan/Reuters, Econoday reported, “Consumer spirits hit record lows early in the summer before firming, but the ongoing financial crisis is now pushing readings to yet deeper lows. The consumer sentiment index plunged a record 12.8 points from September to a mid-month October reading of 57.5. The current conditions component, at 58.9, is at an all-time low. And these are data going back to the early 1950s. Inflation expectations edged upward to 4.5 percent for one-year expectations but were down 2 tenths to 2.8 percent for five-year expectations. Money moved out of the dollar and into Treasuries in reaction to the report.”

Economic data, although somewhat lagging, reflects the broad economic and business marketplace. Real-time price and volume data reflects the capital market. While there are linkages, the two models are clearly different.

You’ve all heard how bad the Great Depression was from a macro-economic perspective. But, until I made this comment on Friday, how many of you recognized the fact that after the 1928 crash through October 1939 there were six legitimate Bull markets where prices boomed?

(From my comments on Friday) How about from 11/13/29 until 4/10/30 (148 days) where the S&P 500 gained +46.8%. Then there was the time from 6/1/32 until 9/7/32 (98 days) where the S&P 500 gained +111.6%. After that came 2/27/33 through 2/6/34 (344 days) where the S&P 500 climbed +113.7%. That led to 3/14/35 through 3/6/37 (723 days) where the S&P 500 added +106.9%. Later, from 3/31/38 through 11/9/38 (223 days) there was a gain of +62.2% in the S&P 500. Finally, from 4/8/39 through 10/25/39 200 days) the S&P 500 gained +29.8%.

So that is six complete Bull market cycles during a time of economic trepidation. The average Bull lasted 289 days and the average gain was +78.5%. That’s six times during the worst ten-year period in 150 years. During those times, the Bear market that followed took an average of 274.1 days and the average loss was -45.7%.

The 2007-2008 Bear Market lasted 365 days from Oct 11 2007 through October 10 2008 (a few weeks after I said that my mindset was turning bullish and that I would be changing to bullish strategies and tactics) and the loss was -46.7%.

If you continue to buy prices at the top of the cycle during the months when economists are telling you that the world is great, and then sell at the cycle bottom during the months when those same economists are telling you the world is in a mess, you are going to transfer your wealth to traders like me.

I hope you understand that you either must learn to trade successfully or you must place your tradable wealth with a successful trader – someone who will, within securities law (which itself is a mess), charge you only for the value add, and nothing for the administration or the yada yada. None of the latter matters. It’s only there to fool you into placing your assets under the control of others who will continuously strip it without meeting your needs. Moreover, you must remain in control of your assets – in an account that you own and can make changes to at any time. The only factors that are important to you are performance and risk management.

I do hope you understand.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The extreme volatility in the market this week caused me to show you a glimpse of how I trade as a professional. My preference is keep the community blog, including my opinions, totally separate from my personal trading activities. But I felt the need to show something of our risk management practices.

For instance, the US equity market was up and down like a roller-coaster. I cannot afford the time to keep a real-time commentary. For instance, just looking at the daily data this week, Semiconductors (SMH) sank -9.16% W/W, but rallied +5.01% on Friday. Energy (XLE) dropped -2.73% W/W, but was up +4.95% on Friday. Utilities (XLU) was down -0.68% W/W, but was up +4.76%.

We are all being forced to be day-traders.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLP	24.25	0.75	3.19%	0.37%	6.36%	2.75%	-14.58%	-12.86%	-13.14%	-13.24%
IYZ	16.12	0.33	2.09%	-0.43%	14.57%	7.25%	-44.74%	-29.17%	-37.37%	-46.52%
XLU	29.07	1.32	4.76%	-0.68%	5.82%	12.85%	-30.93%	-21.56%	-26.98%	-29.87%
IYH	53.52	1.50	2.88%	-1.78%	3.72%	6.55%	-23.65%	-19.30%	-15.57%	-23.18%
XLE	49.85	2.35	4.95%	-2.73%	14.20%	14.86%	-37.30%	-30.96%	-40.13%	-33.13%
SPY	93.86	3.00	3.30%	-3.07%	7.84%	6.06%	-35.24%	-26.10%	-32.73%	-36.54%
XLB	24.94	0.49	2.00%	-3.78%	8.91%	-2.88%	-39.61%	-35.44%	-42.22%	-40.62%
XLK	15.84	0.31	2.00%	-4.00%	5.18%	-0.38%	-39.36%	-30.86%	-35.58%	-42.40%
XLI	23.83	0.24	1.02%	-5.32%	7.88%	1.23%	-38.12%	-30.97%	-37.76%	-39.97%
XLF	14.22	0.19	1.35%	-8.26%	4.94%	-5.83%	-49.86%	-32.96%	-46.24%	-52.69%
XLY	21.10	0.33	1.59%	-8.78%	8.65%	-4.65%	-34.47%	-27.24%	-34.76%	-39.37%
SMH	18.85	0.90	5.01%	-9.16%	2.72%	-7.14%	-39.89%	-35.78%	-40.40%	-43.98%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XOM	73.95	3.99	5.70%	-0.23%	7.11%	18.59%	-20.92%	-4.51%	-16.74%	-15.19%
PTR	74.30	6.77	10.03%	-0.38%	17.90%	-6.53%	-57.21%	-42.65%	-48.77%	-65.08%
PBR	26.77	1.93	7.77%	-0.45%	27.17%	2.57%	-77.47%	-48.63%	-78.88%	-71.13%
SLB	51.38	3.23	6.71%	-0.52%	8.12%	-15.07%	-48.92%	-46.35%	-49.63%	-45.78%
CVX	73.46	3.35	4.78%	-1.53%	14.94%	27.03%	-21.40%	-11.95%	-22.90%	-16.08%
STO	19.78	1.17	6.29%	-1.59%	19.44%	9.89%	-36.68%	-34.00%	-48.03%	-41.72%
TOT	53.68	2.89	5.69%	-3.17%	17.15%	16.19%	-35.54%	-26.85%	-35.38%	-35.11%
ECA	49.00	0.72	1.49%	-3.75%	14.59%	26.78%	-29.61%	-30.37%	-41.67%	-33.23%
CEO	78.00	9.21	13.39%	-4.52%	25.16%	5.28%	-53.41%	-42.63%	-55.58%	-57.95%
RIG	77.11	1.26	1.66%	-6.34%	16.37%	11.67%	-47.17%	-41.31%	-51.01%	-38.70%
IMO	32.20	0.84	2.68%	-9.14%	6.24%	25.05%	-41.37%	-30.32%	-44.81%	-44.53%
SU	21.44	0.60	2.88%	-10.37%	6.40%	-5.43%	-61.11%	-59.06%	-64.34%	-61.50%

Crude Oil ($WTIC) closed the week down -$6.77/bbl (-9.98%) to 61.04.

A week ago, the oil price lifted by +5.71%, and the week before that it crashed by -11.06%.

OPEC is now talking more production cut-backs. Consumer nations will simply have to find alternatives.

I believe that most countries can live with the oil price at 70-75, but not much more.

The Energy sector (XLE) lost -2.73% W/W to 49.85. There was a gain of +4.95% on Friday.

Exxon (XOM) lost only -0.23% W/W. It was up +6.3% on Friday.

Suncor dropped -10.37%, but gained +21.44% on Friday.

I like the energy sector here, and I like XOM.

Monthly chart

Weekly chart

As I noted in last week’s WIR, “But volatility is enough to frighten the average person, while putting a smile on the faces of day-traders. A week ago, in this sector, the losers were: PTR (-21.1%), PBR (-19.7% to 21.05), CEO (-18.9%), and SU (-8.0% to 20.15). I wrote, “These are all good, but for the ones I really like, I noted the current price. I want to refer back here at some point for more proof of concept.” PBR and SU are now, one week later, much higher. PBR gained +$5.84 (+27.7%) to 26.89 and SU gained +$3.77 (+19.7%) to 23.92. The (prices will soon run) into resistance of the (plunging) 50-day and 200-day Moving Average lines. I added “plunging” because it won’t take long, which means that active traders need to have a trigger finger.”

Until Friday, SU was getting hammered. Traders needed to sell, and buy on the extreme weakness of Thursday.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior Basic Materials:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TS	21.32	0.99	4.87%	3.55%	24.90%	-11.54%	-51.97%	-63.01%	-60.29%	-57.12%
GGB	6.430	0.550	9.35%	0.31%	35.08%	7.53%	-77.60%	-67.72%	-84.41%	-78.52%
TCK	9.620	-0.010	-0.10%	-1.94%	0.42%	-32.77%	-73.45%	-76.60%	-79.85%	-79.59%
BHP	38.06	2.46	6.91%	-2.11%	22.54%	2.17%	-45.95%	-43.23%	-53.98%	-52.63%
AA	11.19	0.93	9.06%	-2.70%	18.92%	-0.53%	-69.03%	-64.81%	-70.62%	-70.08%
RIO	12.75	0.77	6.43%	-2.82%	21.43%	5.72%	-61.02%	-51.72%	-67.36%	-64.43%
PKX	61.60	5.87	10.53%	-8.32%	43.62%	-5.38%	-57.94%	-47.97%	-49.96%	-62.45%
VCP	9.250	0.320	3.58%	-8.33%	29.19%	28.29%	-68.86%	-63.15%	-69.66%	-71.15%
DOW	24.23	-0.25	-1.02%	-9.18%	1.55%	-0.70%	-37.47%	-25.05%	-40.45%	-44.55%
RTP	167.35	9.84	6.25%	-9.96%	13.70%	-1.99%	-60.13%	-54.54%	-65.89%	-53.19%
NUE	34.79	1.87	5.68%	-14.12%	-0.63%	13.14%	-39.99%	-35.17%	-55.72%	-38.15%
MT	22.30	1.42	6.80%	-15.05%	1.55%	-23.55%	-70.81%	-73.08%	-75.80%	-70.18%

Basic Materials (XLB -3.78% to 24.94) was right behind XLE in the middle performance range this week.

“So, I am not rattled that XLB was down so much W/W. In fact, I am lining up my ducks here for the next rally… One of the reasons for my interest is the action in $GOLD (+2.18%) and the Goldminers ($XAU +4.31%) on Friday, a day when the $USD and $XJY (Yen) were soaring (+1.4% and +3.1% respectively). That shouldn’t be – unless the same Big Belt Buckles were in buying here Friday as well as in the Oils like they were earlier in the week… Just to put a lid on Friday, which was the only good day for the Goldminers, on Friday Kinross (KGC +10.8%) and Goldcorp (GG +10.5%) were up sharply.”

This week, Kinross (KGC +20.6%) and Goldcorp (GG +17.6%) were up much further – even though the $USD gained +0.29% W/W.

Among the other industry groups in this sector, I noted quite a hammering and then a reversal on Friday.

Argentina’s Tenaris (steel tube for the oilers) was up +3.6% W/W, after being up +4.9% on Friday. Mittal Steel (MT) was down -15.1% W/W, but up +5.7% on Friday. Another steeler, Nucor (NUE) was down -14.1% W/W, but up +5.7% on Friday.

Same thing with the base metal miners: Rio Tinto (RTP), for instance, was down -10.0% W/W, but up +6.3% on Friday.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FLR	41.03	7.02	20.64%	2.75%	22.99%	8.14%	-43.17%	-46.71%	-48.79%	-43.44%
MMM	64.83	2.47	3.96%	0.82%	8.76%	19.48%	-21.62%	-8.92%	-15.45%	-22.14%
CAT	38.45	0.85	2.26%	0.65%	15.47%	-10.85%	-45.56%	-44.22%	-52.90%	-47.76%
FDX	64.58	2.04	3.26%	-1.21%	13.68%	-5.53%	-25.05%	-22.40%	-31.11%	-35.83%
UPS	51.92	2.05	4.11%	-1.63%	11.54%	0.43%	-24.93%	-17.93%	-27.47%	-27.57%
GE	18.86	0.52	2.84%	-3.33%	5.78%	-12.28%	-48.69%	-33.99%	-42.09%	-51.74%
HON	29.36	1.12	3.97%	-3.58%	8.10%	-4.05%	-50.98%	-41.20%	-50.23%	-50.27%
UTX	51.81	1.20	2.37%	-5.73%	9.51%	8.78%	-31.11%	-19.97%	-29.06%	-30.42%
TXT	16.20	0.04	0.25%	-8.47%	32.57%	-14.87%	-75.75%	-61.34%	-73.39%	-76.62%
ABB	11.72	0.50	4.46%	-10.87%	6.45%	-15.38%	-59.08%	-54.50%	-61.64%	-62.58%
BA	46.58	0.86	1.88%	-11.14%	2.96%	11.44%	-46.22%	-28.00%	-44.91%	-51.92%
ERJ	17.16	-0.56	-3.16%	-17.97%	2.63%	-0.23%	-61.98%	-40.60%	-57.94%	-63.37%

Industrials (XLI -5.32%) was a losing sector this week, closing at 23.83.

The airplane makers Embraer (ERJ -18.0%) and Boeing (BA -11.1%) were nails under the market hammer, mostly because they had rallied so much the week before.

General Electric (GE -3.3% to 18.86) is in trouble because of GE Capital. Former CEO Jack Welch was quick to snap at Jeff Immelt, but he was the one who saddled Immelt with the financial/insurance groups and Jeff got rid of most of the insurance before that too put a torpedo into his machine.

What I’d like to see with GE Capital is that it gets hived off as a shareholder dividend or re-organized into a separately controlled sub. GE needs to revert to being an Industrial. Immelt needs to get off the Board of the NY Fed and he ought to sell CNBC to a consortium of Humungous Bank & Broker so it can be their organ, something the SEC needs to regulate.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BC	3.5000	0.2700	8.36%	0.86%	6.38%	-53.27%	-79.31%	-74.21%	-78.92%	-83.97%
WHR	44.42	0.99	2.28%	-4.78%	-9.64%	-33.60%	-44.39%	-41.32%	-39.32%	-40.85%
JCP	22.40	0.50	2.28%	-6.35%	18.52%	-0.97%	-46.22%	-33.19%	-49.09%	-56.20%
EBAY	14.19	0.23	1.65%	-7.07%	-4.70%	-15.18%	-56.33%	-44.27%	-52.38%	-57.88%
TGT	36.52	1.05	2.96%	-8.97%	10.94%	-1.30%	-26.24%	-20.19%	-31.66%	-37.91%
DIS	23.36	0.55	2.41%	-9.84%	3.32%	1.39%	-26.63%	-24.45%	-32.68%	-30.27%
TM	68.52	1.43	2.13%	-9.95%	3.68%	11.87%	-35.64%	-20.23%	-34.59%	-38.66%
BDK	45.49	-0.14	-0.31%	-10.13%	1.13%	-12.60%	-34.95%	-26.45%	-32.88%	-44.75%
BBBY	22.98	-0.13	-0.56%	-10.83%	-1.84%	-12.26%	-18.97%	-19.45%	-29.47%	-26.32%
CCL	22.03	0.15	0.69%	-13.27%	-16.93%	-21.38%	-49.54%	-41.46%	-44.76%	-50.64%
NKE	49.41	-1.23	-2.43%	-14.26%	3.39%	-9.39%	-21.92%	-18.80%	-25.98%	-21.30%
TTM	4.4200	-0.0800	-1.78%	-24.44%	11.62%	-25.21%	-77.28%	-55.62%	-73.00%	-74.96%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY -8.78% W/W) closed at 21.10, but it was up +19.10% a week earlier.

Two weeks ago, I wrote about Brunswick:

Brunswick Corp (BC) makes some of the best boats in the world for the price. The stock has totally tanked, plunging -43.0%, down -80.6% YTD. They need a new banker. Obviously they need some friends in Congress who ought to bail them out of the swamp before US boat production sails off to Taiwan… In summary, there are many problems in this sector that a little money spread around by Henry Paulson would cure. Send him an unsinkable Boston Whaler as a retirement gift. I can just see him sailing one of those $100,000 babies back to his $60 million a year Wall Street job. Ya, right! Anyway, the money is on the way. Hope floats.

A week ago, I added,

BC was up 18 cents this week (+5.47% W/W) to close at 3.47. But the good news is that 17 of those 18 cents were gained on Friday. So the hope of a bail-out is still floating. Do the right thing Mr. Treasury Secretary, Brunswick’s 23,000 still employed workers might even float a multi-million dollar Hatteras down the ditch from New Bern NC to your place in Palm Beach.

This week, BC was down all week, but Friday went up +8.4% to close up +0.9% W/W at $3.50. Not bad. We float the toy boats first; the Sea Rays come soon – when people get financing from bankers.

I say not bad because some of these consumer discretionary stocks got crushed this week, like Tata Motors (TTM -24.4%), Nike (NKE -14.3%), and Carnival Cruiselines (CCL -13.3%).

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PDA	34.30	4.10	13.58%	17.26%	40.52%	37.31%	-28.73%	-40.70%	-38.59%	-37.10%
ABV	47.47	5.15	12.17%	11.69%	30.02%	22.66%	-34.51%	-25.20%	-37.54%	-40.15%
KO	46.25	1.76	3.96%	4.97%	11.15%	11.45%	-24.29%	-14.37%	-18.90%	-22.87%
KR	27.52	0.53	1.96%	0.22%	4.28%	15.73%	7.21%	-4.21%	2.30%	0.70%
PG	64.49	1.14	1.80%	-0.08%	9.55%	8.28%	-10.81%	-4.43%	-1.99%	-7.10%
KFT	28.49	0.47	1.68%	-2.36%	5.13%	4.55%	-11.11%	-10.83%	-9.64%	-14.52%
WMT	54.39	0.90	1.68%	-2.54%	5.82%	6.75%	15.97%	-4.51%	-4.29%	23.81%
PEP	55.36	0.51	0.93%	-2.89%	6.96%	-4.22%	-26.47%	-18.53%	-18.60%	-23.47%
DEO	58.86	1.70	2.97%	-5.35%	3.52%	3.65%	-30.80%	-19.65%	-27.38%	-35.67%
WAG	23.88	0.40	1.70%	-6.21%	5.71%	2.84%	-36.05%	-32.24%	-32.43%	-37.96%
WFMI	10.05	-0.43	-4.10%	-6.25%	-6.42%	-32.23%	-74.72%	-46.71%	-70.43%	-78.41%
SBUX	10.55	-0.54	-4.87%	-19.65%	8.99%	-4.78%	-45.37%	-27.34%	-33.86%	-56.24%

Consumer Staples (XLP +0.37% W/W to 24.25) was the only sector winner. But the ETF gained just 9 cents on the week, and the gain on Friday was 75 cents, mostly with the market’s closing flourish.

Examples of the extreme action in Staples stocks: PDA (+17.3% W/W, but +13.6% on Friday); ABV (+11.7% W/W, but +12.2% on Friday); and KO (+5.0% W/W, but +4.0% on Friday).

The hot money did not extend to SBUX (-19.7% W/W including -4.9% on Friday). If the broad rally continues on Monday, you can celebrate with Cappuccinos at Starbucks.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DNA	83.46	1.66	2.03%	0.63%	4.53%	14.33%	23.83%	-13.86%	23.37%	12.34%
BMY	20.55	0.81	4.10%	0.00%	16.50%	17.03%	-21.35%	-5.17%	-9.71%	-28.47%
WLP	38.71	0.69	1.81%	-0.41%	-4.18%	9.66%	-55.51%	-28.24%	-25.70%	-50.40%
GSK	38.43	1.99	5.46%	-0.70%	7.53%	9.55%	-23.40%	-20.12%	-12.06%	-23.31%
MDT	39.81	1.40	3.64%	-1.29%	5.29%	-0.47%	-19.58%	-24.17%	-16.73%	-12.62%
AMGN	58.87	2.31	4.08%	-1.70%	2.97%	21.18%	26.33%	-5.11%	39.50%	4.75%
JNJ	60.22	2.30	3.97%	-1.83%	-0.94%	7.82%	-8.63%	-14.76%	-10.00%	-5.77%
NVO	52.50	0.66	1.27%	-1.89%	15.21%	19.26%	-17.71%	-15.08%	-21.19%	-56.86%
NVS	49.62	2.61	5.55%	-2.69%	5.06%	13.16%	-9.07%	-14.05%	-1.78%	-5.68%
PFE	16.86	0.49	2.99%	-4.80%	1.75%	11.36%	-26.41%	-12.23%	-15.36%	-27.70%
UNH	22.43	0.27	1.22%	-5.48%	-2.10%	29.28%	-60.42%	-23.08%	-31.32%	-55.01%
AET	23.48	0.10	0.43%	-5.59%	-16.88%	-15.45%	-58.55%	-45.29%	-46.29%	-56.18%

The Healthcare sector (IYH -1.78% W/W to 53.52) was, like the other sectors, better off after the closing rally on Friday (+2.88%).

Genentech (DNA) managed a gain of +0.6% W/W after a gain of +2.0% on Friday.

AET, which a week ago dropped -12.0%, was down -5.6% W/W. United Health (UNH -5.5% W/W) was close behind. Added regulation by a Democratic Administration may be extra tough on the non-pharma end of this sector, but I suspect the biggest trouble is in the credit and insurance markets. When I see the T-Bill yield drop to almost zero, these stocks usually take a fall. When the yield rallies, particularly above the Fed rate, these stocks are usually bullish.

Speaking of financial health, this is Canada Savings Bond time. Your broker/salesperson will be calling, and you will be reminded that in tough times you need to go defensive. They think it’s an easy sell when they can play on your emotions. Don’t be rude but hang up.

A year ago when the CSB yield was higher – up near the rate of inflation – and the broad equity market was starting to fall apart, you needed to be defensive, and CSB would have been a good deal. But any investment in CSB at today’s low income rate, which is much lower than the inflation rate, is tantamount to wealth destruction. Besides, equity prices are now about one-third cheaper and you can buy very low risk, good quality companies at attractive share prices.

So why would your advisor want to sell you a savings bond? It’s all about commissions and how easy it is to play your emotions.

You allow these people to play you like this and one day soon you’ll be checking into a United Health room, being pumped with chemicals. Just relax, weather the storm, and you’ll be a happy camper a year from now.

Speaking of weather, I got up this morning and checked the local weather. Didn’t seem too bad for today, but tomorrow showed the ominous warning: “Hurricane Paloma. Distance from this city 180 miles.” Oh, oh. When I went to bed, Paloma was a killer Category 4 storm that was heading into Cuba, moving north-east to Bahamas. Ahh, but now I see that weather experts (is there such a thing?) are saying that Paloma is going to meet Palooka in the southern Bahamas and be ko’d.

Hope they’re right.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IBN	18.17	1.49	8.93%	4.91%	46.06%	31.19%	-70.76%	-44.16%	-58.95%	-71.76%
RY	39.79	0.79	2.03%	2.74%	9.28%	10.22%	-21.33%	-10.22%	-17.05%	-28.35%
DB	39.00	1.24	3.28%	2.69%	9.40%	-14.62%	-69.78%	-58.43%	-66.97%	-67.83%
HBC	59.35	1.98	3.45%	0.59%	7.89%	-13.35%	-28.01%	-27.52%	-30.67%	-34.67%
BBD	11.33	0.87	8.32%	-3.16%	33.92%	16.92%	-62.77%	-43.46%	-50.37%	-64.16%
JPM	37.75	-0.51	-1.33%	-8.48%	6.55%	-9.34%	-10.48%	-5.17%	-18.94%	-10.63%
MS	15.98	0.59	3.83%	-8.53%	-3.27%	65.08%	-68.64%	-62.54%	-66.15%	-68.78%
MER	16.75	0.52	3.20%	-9.90%	5.61%	6.35%	-68.25%	-35.82%	-65.45%	-68.98%
CS	33.44	1.69	5.32%	-10.59%	-9.23%	4.50%	-43.97%	-34.15%	-37.76%	-44.50%
UBS	14.99	0.48	3.31%	-11.30%	15.13%	-2.03%	-67.26%	-26.52%	-53.23%	-67.85%
C	11.82	0.30	2.60%	-13.41%	-2.64%	-16.23%	-59.13%	-36.00%	-51.72%	-64.62%
GS	77.78	-2.94	-3.64%	-15.91%	-22.53%	-12.41%	-62.53%	-54.87%	-59.01%	-63.68%

Financials (XLF -8.26% W/W to 14.22) did an about-turn from the previous week where the gain was +14.39%. This is like watching tournament ping-pong.

In the second last WIR, I noted that despite the humungous rally in HB&B stocks, “this week some good quality banks like … GS (-12.2%) were taken down. Those were the relative strongest. BBD (-25.7%), IBN (-22.8%), HBC (-20.5%), C (-18.4%) and DB (-18.1%) were crushed. The losses on Friday were horrific… I believe that next week will be different…” Then a week ago, it was different: “Being up +14.39% was different. Now the credit markets need to stabilize somewhat before the big volume will return to the equity market. Not being part of the Paulson-Dimon-Mack boardroom crowd, I’m, like you, out of the deal on that one… Goldman Sachs (GS) dropped -7.9% this week though, and that’s not a sign of stability. There is a lot going on here behind the scenes. Goldman is chopping staff right and left, which is not like them. I won’t even listen to their analyst opine on commodities anymore… Who knows, maybe the whole front office has been seconded by Paulson into Treasury? Do you think?... Naw, they couldn’t be running Treasury, central banks in many countries, the FOMC open market operations, CNBC Entertainment, Sears, the World Bank, you name it? Could they?”

Hmm, GS plunged a further -15.9%, and now this once highest-quality rated investment bank in the world, is looking rather like a bank, which come to think of it is the case, and probably the reason the share price is being blown up. You see, Goldman is a major player at all the highest risk games on the Street. They have done that by having the best people, the access to the most capital and an appetite for volatility where they used leverage of 30+ times to their advantage.

Now they are deleveraging. In order to get themselves out of hot water with their failing hedge fund clients who have probably turtled on their obligations to Goldman, they would have to be a practitioner of forced selling. So, while their analyst was telling you and me that Crude Oil was going to zoom to 200 a barrel, I’m sure their people were squeezing the life out of their hedge fund client managers. That’s the kind of deceit that goes on in this business. It’s Wall Street’s Dirty Little Secret.

You know how they spin it? They tell you that the bank must first protect its capital which is the essence of stability. But what really this is about is greed. How many billions in bonuses in the aggregate do the Goldman executives get each and every year? Now that they are becoming a real bank with the required margin, I’m sure that quality staff are exiting in droves. The story that Goldman are laying off in order to “stabilize” is just so much hooey. Their top people – the greediest – are jumping overboard. In fact, their former boss and mentor has thrown them a lifeline from the White House. He’s told them that if they join his Treasury Department they can sell their stock, book the capital gains and NOT pay capital gains tax. The same deal saved him $200 million.

It’s a wonderful life these guys live. Even if the new President boots their ass down Pennsylvania Avenue, they are laughing all the way to the bank for the gazillions in tax savings for a couple months “work” – doling out the people’s money to their friends on Wall Street – the same ones who are going to hire them when they decide to return to the Street.

When I heard that Gov. Corzine, who was Paulson’s former boss at Goldman, was being considered for the Treasury posting, I just about puked. That would be the final straw.

But my thoughts are with Goldman Sachs and whether I should retain them in the Cara 100 until Jim Cramer returns to run the place… hahaha. Sad to say, the new Goldman might turn out to be a bit like some of their former people now on the outside – a joke.

The winner in the Financials this week was India’s (Mumbai-headquartered) ICICI Bank (IBN +4.9% W/W), which eked out a gain after a rally of +8.9% on Friday. This Cara 100 stock was down to 16.12 about 2pm Thursday afternoon and hit 18.25 at noon Friday, closing at 18.17. Hot money.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SNDK	9.980	0.140	1.42%	12.26%	25.85%	-37.31%	-69.91%	-38.28%	-65.92%	-75.46%
SAP	35.81	1.65	4.83%	1.36%	9.95%	5.73%	-29.41%	-38.57%	-26.87%	-32.65%
CTSH	19.42	0.80	4.30%	1.15%	16.64%	11.87%	-39.75%	-34.52%	-35.72%	-41.31%
CSCO	17.58	0.64	3.78%	-1.07%	7.79%	2.03%	-33.76%	-25.45%	-31.81%	-46.32%
RIMM	48.65	0.69	1.44%	-3.53%	8.21%	-11.99%	-57.22%	-61.77%	-62.57%	-63.43%
ORCL	17.53	0.68	4.04%	-4.16%	8.21%	5.10%	-22.05%	-22.95%	-16.48%	-20.68%
QCOM	35.66	2.61	7.90%	-6.80%	1.91%	-8.52%	-7.11%	-35.61%	-18.10%	-13.43%
ADBE	24.59	0.03	0.12%	-7.70%	2.93%	-9.33%	-41.05%	-43.11%	-37.33%	-46.74%
GOOG	331.14	-0.08	-0.02%	-7.85%	-2.40%	-0.26%	-51.67%	-30.89%	-42.81%	-54.82%
AAPL	98.24	-0.86	-0.87%	-8.69%	1.93%	1.49%	-49.58%	-39.94%	-46.20%	-47.27%
INTC	14.63	0.76	5.48%	-8.73%	2.45%	-3.69%	-42.29%	-38.19%	-36.86%	-45.61%
INFY	26.70	1.98	8.01%	-8.94%	5.87%	11.67%	-39.91%	-34.70%	-38.25%	-40.64%

Tech (XLK -4.00%) and Semi-conductors (SMH -9.16%) were low-end performers this week. Products get shipped by Bank Letters of Credit. When the credit market seizes up, which you can tell when the T-Bill yield drops close to zero (meaning nobody will take a risk), the Tech company stocks get hurt.

A major lawsuit must be going SanDisk’s way. The SNDK was up this week +12.3%, giving shareholders a two-week gain of +25.9%.

India’s (Bangalore-headquartered) Infosys (INFY -8.9% W/W) jumped +8.0% on Friday. This is another excellent quality Indian company.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Telecom (IYZ -0.43% W/W) closed at 16.12. That’s a loss of just 7 cents.

Verizon (VZ +18.3%) and AT&T (T +8.5%)

A week ago I wrote in this space, “Verizon (VZ +18.3%) and AT&T (T +8.5%) were both up strongly. Maybe that’s a signal that the bond market is going to stabilize here.”

After bonds had been looking very shaky the week before, this week the TLT (average 20-year Treasuries) was up +1.50% W/W, despite taking a hit on Friday. The TIP (Treasury Inflation Protected) was up +2.24%.

The market breathes. You need to be a doctor sometimes to recognize the vital signs (the “tells”), but the market never dies. Today, it’s us; tomorrow our children. You need to teach them the important things to look for.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

Utilities (XLU -0.68% to 29.07) fared relatively well in a bad week overall.

First Energy (FE) was up +5.0% and American Electric Power (AEP) dropped -5.4%. AEP took a fall starting May this year, while FE stayed bullish until mid-July. Now FE popped back a little sooner.
http://billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=FE,AEP&prt=0&ind=rsi

FE (based in Akron OH) sells electric energy in Ohio, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. AEP (based in nearby Columbus OH) sells electric energy Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia. If you are going to invest in these utility companies, I think you need to have a broad understanding of the market drivers.

Here is the list of North American Utilities that I will be following more closely:
AEP D DUK ED EXC FE FPL NGG PCG PEG SO TRP

For study purposes, there is a good mix of electric (AEP, D, DUK, FE, FPL and SO), gas (NGG, TRP) and diversified (ED, EXC, PCG, PEG) utilities.

Table 12: US Utilities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FE	54.74	1.31	2.45%	4.95%	11.31%	20.44%	-23.86%	-20.51%	-27.60%	-18.15%
SO	34.83	1.06	3.14%	1.43%	0.64%	7.97%	-8.63%	-1.42%	-4.13%	-1.05%
NGG	57.70	3.46	6.38%	0.84%	12.28%	19.34%	-29.63%	-12.38%	-16.10%	-30.53%
FPL	46.92	3.28	7.52%	-0.68%	8.61%	26.54%	-29.28%	-20.60%	-27.67%	-28.96%
EXC	53.82	3.22	6.36%	-0.77%	10.85%	13.59%	-32.88%	-28.33%	-35.98%	-34.09%
DUK	16.25	0.59	3.77%	-0.79%	3.97%	12.61%	-17.72%	-6.72%	-12.02%	-14.61%
TRP	29.94	-0.44	-1.45%	-1.19%	7.97%	10.72%	-27.06%	-21.04%	-21.07%	-30.57%
D	35.83	1.53	4.46%	-1.24%	1.96%	6.42%	-22.98%	-14.57%	-19.52%	-20.47%
PCG	36.11	1.75	5.09%	-1.53%	4.82%	21.58%	-16.51%	-3.91%	-10.53%	-17.39%
PEG	27.52	1.16	4.40%	-2.24%	-0.43%	10.12%	-42.73%	-30.84%	-34.44%	-38.93%
ED	42.13	-0.10	-0.24%	-2.75%	4.77%	12.02%	-12.45%	6.07%	0.98%	-8.71%
AEP	30.87	1.63	5.57%	-5.39%	-0.36%	10.25%	-33.33%	-19.34%	-29.39%	-33.30%

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	0.22	0.25	0.37	0.51
6 Month	0.79	0.79	0.81	1.00
2 Year	1.32	1.28	1.54	1.54
3 Year	1.12	1.08	1.26	1.37
5 Year	2.56	2.45	2.80	2.62
10 Year	3.78	3.69	3.95	3.63
30 Year	4.26	4.20	4.36	4.05

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.00	2.81	2.89	2.82
2yr AAA	2.27	2.57	2.79	2.56
2yr A	3.09	3.04	3.25	3.02
5yr AAA	3.14	3.24	3.43	3.22
5yr AA	3.18	3.32	3.46	3.39
5yr A	3.31	3.37	3.44	3.59
10yr AAA	4.00	4.82	4.33	4.54
10yr AA	4.08	4.45	4.23	4.13
10yr A	4.17	4.50	4.90	3.97
20yr AAA	5.30	5.14	5.51	5.28
20yr AA	4.94	4.89	5.05	5.71
20yr A	5.47	5.59	5.54	5.68

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.13	4.92	5.81	5.45
2yr A	5.99	6.31	5.66	10.14
5yr AAA	6.15	5.49	5.77	5.48
5yr AA	6.48	6.40	7.63	7.63
5yr A	6.97	6.78	6.86	6.92
10yr AAA	5.68	5.59	5.95	5.32
10yr AA	6.30	6.23	7.15	7.14
10yr A	7.07	7.17	7.36	6.99
20yr AAA	6.60	6.55	7.15	5.94
20yr AA	6.54	6.48	6.95	5.95
20yr A	8.48	8.46	8.45	6.68

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The 20-year Treasury ETF (TLT), which a week ago plunged by -4.03%, was up +1.50% this week to close at 94.22.

I wrote in this space a week ago, “So the extreme volatility that has hit capital markets is very much true in the bond market as well… Three times in the past seven weeks, I have observed that hot money has flowed back and forth between 13-week T-Bills and long bonds. Every time the yield on the long bond gets up into the 4.40 to 4.45 range (meaning bond prices have sunk), money flows from T-Bills into the bonds. As this happens, the yield on the bonds drops and the T-Bill yield rises. Later, money starts flowing back into T-Bills… I haven’t decided in my mind whether this occurrence is due to (i) huge money being pulled out of bonds, which would happen if bond traders were concerned that higher interest rates were on the way, (ii) typical capital flows from bonds to equities at an equity market cycle bottom, which usually happens when interest rates have bottomed and begin to rise, or (iii) credit market crunches where banks go scrambling for liquidity (ie, cash demands)… One of my concerns is gaining traction. A week ago in this space, I wrote, Blame (the mess) on Paulson and the US Congress. Every time they spend more money than comes in, it has to be printed. The government doesn’t do that; their banker the Fed does it. They can fudge the market only for so long and suddenly voila there is no capital available for corporations or consumers, and Paulson and Bernanke blame it on the banks. This is utter nonsense. We need an honest government, as kaimu says, in order to have honest money and fairness to the private sector. Ain’t happening.”

I followed up with a request, “At this point, I’d like people to think about how money is created and what’s happening to the debts of America. It is at the same time misunderstood and mind-boggling… Because there is a widespread lack of understanding of banks, money, and debt, here are videos that will take maybe 90 minutes of your time to watch that will tell you pretty much all you need to know. The material is taught in secondary schools.

30-minute video that explains the US national debt.

How money is created from debt.

Five part series: Money as Debt

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5

Here are the charts of the US debt market that I consider to be the important ones.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NLY	14.51	0.87	6.38%	4.39%	22.45%	11.62%	-19.83%	2.69%	-13.73%	-14.85%
TIP	94.44	-0.42	-0.44%	2.24%	0.10%	-0.99%	-11.44%	-10.81%	-11.53%	-9.30%
TLT	94.22	-0.66	-0.70%	1.50%	-2.59%	-1.80%	-0.17%	2.69%	3.15%	3.86%
AGG	97.09	0.49	0.51%	1.18%	1.99%	9.83%	-4.49%	-2.75%	-4.75%	-3.22%
IEF	88.64	-0.32	-0.36%	0.85%	-0.84%	1.09%	1.15%	0.25%	0.32%	4.10%
SHY	84.01	-0.17	-0.20%	-0.23%	-0.17%	0.06%	2.03%	1.31%	1.00%	2.98%
EQR	33.06	3.23	10.83%	-5.35%	9.91%	-19.37%	-9.25%	-24.33%	-21.81%	-12.38%
DRE	13.18	1.09	9.02%	-6.59%	11.04%	-18.94%	-48.56%	-47.47%	-48.93%	-54.01%
AVB	64.35	3.10	5.06%	-9.39%	0.25%	-20.86%	-29.56%	-34.24%	-35.43%	-38.66%
FRE	0.8600	0.0100	1.18%	-16.50%	16.22%	-25.86%	-97.37%	-85.40%	-96.69%	-98.09%
FNM	0.7400	0.0300	4.23%	-20.43%	12.12%	-31.48%	-98.02%	-92.56%	-97.45%	-98.51%

A week ago I wrote in this space, “Fannie Mae (FNM +40.5%) and Freddie Mac (FRE +39.2%) soared but after being down about -99%, the close this of $0.927 and 1.030 respectively really is of no interest to me. Since nobody knows what’s going on there, trading in these two stocks is akin to gambling.”

This week FNM dropped to $0.74 and FRE closed at $0.86. These stocks only continue to be NYSE-listed in order to continue the sham that they can qualify as investment grade securities for US banks and Fund managers. If Fannie and Freddie didn’t, think where money managers like PIMCO would be. This deceit must be stopped.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

Four straight weeks of big losses followed by some relief a week ago, the $CRB index dropped again this week (-4.30%) to 256.84. In early July, the $CRB hit a high of 493.97.

The 50-day MA for $CRB is 318.81 and the 200-day MA is 389.97.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC dropped -$6.77/bbl (-9.98%) to 61.04.

After falling in price from the $150 level, I opined, “I believe that oil-related funds are shutting down and there is forced selling in the market. I also think that credit to the hedge funds has been shut down… The drop in Crude Oil prices -- US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate as well as European Brent – is the major reason why the commodity index ($CRB) has tanked.”

For $WTIC, the 50d MA is now 87.49, and the 200d MA is 109.73. The price in mid-July hit a record high of $149.90. When Goldman Sachs opined that Crude Oil prices would soon hit $200, I think they were selling out hedge fund positions.

The good news is that the monster price cut is like a tax rebate to corporations and consumers alike.

For traders who like the oil stocks, there is also good news in that as the Crude Oil price drops, there is less incentive for government to subsidize alternative energy programs. President-elect Obama says his key program will do just that – wind, solar, biomass, etc. We’ll have to see how much he does about that.

In any event, a stable oil price in a range of $60 to $75 is sufficient for oil companies to plan ahead, and make good profits during the interim.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

I wrote in this space a week ago, “$GOLD showed signs of recovering this week, closing up +0.85% to 127.43, but there was a loss of -1.56% on Friday. The Euro has collapsed from US$1.4624 at the end of September, so $GOLD is still under pressure.” …(But) I have previously opined, “I do believe the Euro and $GOLD will rally as soon as the US credit market crisis is gotten under control, and traders stop repatriating $USD and $XJY (Yen) from abroad.”

I added, “Next week could be a good one for gold. But, I am aware that rate cuts by the BoE and ECB on Thursday at 7:00am ET and 7:45am may put some additional pressure on silver and the other precious metals.”

$GOLD did move up by +$16.00/oz (+2.23%) this week, closing at 734.20. It has traded in a tight range. After the European rate cuts, gold did back off a bit, and silver much more. On Friday, gold lifted +0.27%, while silver dropped -0.91%.

For $GOLD, the 50d MA is now 810.80, and the 200d MA is 886.17.

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

$SILVER gained +0.23 (+2.39%) to 9.96 this week. There was a loss of -0.91% on Friday. On that day, forex markets were quiet except for the Loonie to Yen move.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 11.21, and the 200d MA is 15.80.

Excuse the typo in the 200d MA a week ago. I rush through this report as fast as possible. The upside is that I take note of little things without thinking about them and that impression usually later is often found to have meaning.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT (+$24.40/oz +2.45%) closed at 852.00. The close two weeks ago was $53.70/oz lower.

The 50-day MA is 1047.19 and the 200-day MA is 1711.39.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL (+$24.15/oz +11.98%) closed sharply higher at 225.75.

The two-week gain is +49.60/oz, from 176.15, which is a monster move.

The 50-day MA is 224.76 and the 200-day MA is 385.58, which is bearish, but clearly improving.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER dropped -$13.20 -7.22% W/W to 169.70. Six weeks ago it was 307.45.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is 260.20 and the 200-day MA is 341.53.

Two weeks ago I wrote in this space, “I cannot see either the base metals like copper (or the precious metals) soaring without some preliminary warming up in the Xstrata, Vale (RIO) and Teck (TCK), which I use as a tell. These are the companies that understand forex and credit markets as well as anybody. Their goods are sold by Letters of Credit. It’s a tough time for them.”

There is always a cash buyer for gold, however, so the credit market problems actually help them. As T-Bill yields drop close to zero, there is no opportunity cost in holding the physical bullion, which pays no interest.

A week ago I wrote, “This week things improved. The RIO soared +25.0%, but the TCK gained just +2.4%. However, the Rio Tinto (RTP +26.3%) and BHP (BHP +25.2%) also soared. The movers are all much bigger than Teck. I suspect the TCK under-performed because the Toronto index under-performed this week. Let’s watch TCK next week… Xtrata (XTA.L) trading in London was up +35.7% this week – just flying on Wednesday through Friday. Wow. Metals are on fire. TCK ($9.81) to follow next week!”

Well, TCK went like a bullet on Monday, hitting a high of $12.73 on Tuesday and $12.48 on Wednesday. I then opined in the blog that markets were looking shaky, inferring that decisions like selling TCK would be ok. So there was a potential gain of $28.9% in less than two days. Why not realize it if “stocks are looking shaky here”? Of course, if you entered the trade using various option strategies, the gain would have been bigger and the risks put well under control.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KGC	12.58	0.58	4.83%	20.61%	42.79%	-3.97%	-37.57%	-24.03%	-34.24%	-37.13%
GG	21.95	0.91	4.33%	17.63%	29.04%	-14.09%	-40.09%	-33.85%	-41.28%	-39.46%
AEM	32.35	2.71	9.14%	17.00%	24.42%	-19.13%	-42.76%	-35.97%	-48.13%	-42.62%
EGO	4.9200	0.4000	8.85%	15.76%	53.27%	14.15%	-20.65%	-36.52%	-30.70%	-21.66%
LIHR	14.10	1.41	11.11%	10.33%	32.77%	0.93%	-57.49%	-35.82%	-50.91%	-64.25%
BVN	13.33	0.96	7.76%	5.46%	19.44%	-25.82%	-56.21%	-41.33%	-59.53%	-56.22%
ABX	23.96	0.84	3.63%	5.36%	20.46%	-20.21%	-47.94%	-33.96%	-38.58%	-48.18%
AUY	4.7300	0.0600	1.28%	2.16%	17.37%	-14.62%	-65.90%	-57.31%	-65.60%	-67.71%
GFI	6.660	0.490	7.94%	0.15%	25.42%	-18.28%	-56.75%	-33.99%	-50.30%	-63.20%
NEM	26.02	0.63	2.48%	-1.21%	9.24%	-10.98%	-50.33%	-41.80%	-42.46%	-52.00%
AU	17.92	0.83	4.86%	-1.81%	18.68%	8.61%	-60.92%	-41.84%	-53.42%	-60.55%
HMY	6.890	0.350	5.35%	-5.75%	4.87%	-25.59%	-35.91%	-25.11%	-40.55%	-38.54%

A week ago I wrote, “, the goldminer index ($XAU) and US ETF (GDX) jumped +14.39% and +21.73% respectively. That was quite a ride. But the Cdn ETF (XGD) was up only +8.27%, if such a weekly gain could be properly described as “only”. But it’s all relative.”

This week the results were $XAU +5.06%; GDX +0.46%; and XGD +4.95%.

Most of the gains this week were made on Friday.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

You cannot trade commodities that are priced in $USD without studying forex movement. The Forex market is a multi-trillion dollar marketplace every day, which dwarfs the size of the stock and bond markets. In this market, the Euro/USD is the highest volume trader. The $USD is a trade-weighted US Dollar index, we used to call the Morgan Dollar.

The current value of $USD is a mean value of rate fluctuations of six world currencies (Japanese yen, Euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona) that each trade against the USD. I have discussed this in recent WIRs.

This week the $USD gained +0.29% W/W to close at 85.92, a gain of 25 cents.

The 50-day MA for the $USD is 81.19 and the 200-day MA is 75.46.

I believe that in time, the net effect of global reflation, pushed mostly by Washington, ought to weaken the $USD, possibly heading it for a test of the all-time low of 70.70… If so; precious metal prices will ultimately soar. I’m glad to see Don Coxe is in agreement (Barron’s Nov 10).

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) dropped -0.20% this week to close at 127.17. There was a small gain on Friday.

The Euro 50day MA is 1.3717 and the 200day MA is 1.4986.

The BoE and ECB cut their rates by -150 basis points and -50bp respectively on Thursday. The $USD firmed up for the day as a consequence.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound dropped -2.71% this week to close at 1.5646. The major BoE rate cut was the reason.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 1.7279 and 1.9071.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) gained +0.31% this week, but was up a lot through Thursday.
On Friday, there was a loss of -0.72%.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 97.39 and the 200-day MA is 95.52.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) gained +1.75% W/W to close at 84.09. The re-appointment of fically prudent Jim Flaherty as Minister of Finance may have helped.

The Loonie traded as high as 110.17 in 3Q07, when I was advising snowbirds to buy property here in The Bahamas. Even in mid-July this year, the Loonie traded at over $1.00 American (or $1 Bahamian).

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 89.20 and 96.33, respectively.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Here is the China Yuan (CNY) chart.

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International Equity Markets Review

Equity market prices this week either continued higher or, at the least, consolidated the large gains of the previous week with a small bit of profit-taking.

The global panic of a couple weeks back continues to calm.

Over the past two weeks:

UK FTSE soared from 3883.4 to 4377.3, then dropped to 4365.0

German DAX soared from 4295.7 to 4988.0, then dropped to 4938.5

Aussie All-Ords lifted again from 3831.6 to 3982.7 to 4006.6

HK Hang Seng lifted again from 12618.4 to 13968.7 to 14243.4

India’s BSE 30 lifted again from 8701.1 to 9788.1 to 9964.3

Japan’s Nikkei 225 lifted again from 7649.1 to 8577.0 to 8853.0

Brazil’s Bovespa soared from 31481.6 to 37256.8 before dropping back to to 36665.1.

A week ago in this space I opined, “…caution is advised for the majority of you, at least until you see across the board RSI-7’s lift above the 30 level… There is no change. I’d like to see these markets lift more on higher volume. Until then, I remain a cautious Bull. Continue to raise stops.”

No change. Markets are confused. The retail sales data is horrid, and traders are waiting to see how President-elect Obama is going to play his cards.

The Shanghai Fly sent me this note today:

$586 billion spending package on infrastrucutre and social welfare with potential easing to come. No wonder the market gapped down at open on Friday in Shanghai and ended up much higher despite a 5% fall in the S&P on Thursday. It's interesting to note that the Chinese yuan has actually gained ground against the USD while most other major currencies other than the yen have lost ground. Hot money is probably rushing in. I suppose this may be an explosive combination, let's see how it works out.

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There are 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices. This will come after we switch to the Drupal platform in November.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWH	11.01	1.00	9.99%	5.66%	14.69%	4.36%	-49.47%	-31.32%	-42.92%	-49.98%
EWA	15.55	0.66	4.43%	3.74%	17.45%	7.91%	-45.97%	-35.07%	-44.19%	-53.04%
GXC	41.00	4.70	12.95%	3.12%	18.67%	-2.38%	-53.88%	-36.85%	-48.10%	-58.67%
EWQ	20.73	1.16	5.93%	1.12%	11.33%	1.92%	-45.36%	-34.32%	-43.05%	-46.56%
EWZ	38.02	2.06	5.73%	0.96%	26.99%	10.39%	-53.03%	-49.91%	-58.41%	-53.56%
EWJ	9.050	0.500	5.85%	0.56%	9.04%	11.87%	-31.59%	-21.03%	-31.85%	-34.42%
EWC	19.22	0.00	0.00%	0.21%	11.81%	1.96%	-40.68%	-35.57%	-42.61%	-45.94%
EWU	13.12	0.82	6.67%	-1.80%	13.59%	1.00%	-45.06%	-33.74%	-42.83%	-49.01%
EWG	18.04	0.89	5.19%	-2.38%	16.76%	1.12%	-49.03%	-37.45%	-45.05%	-49.11%
IFN	19.82	1.37	7.43%	-2.60%	10.91%	0.10%	-67.98%	-50.55%	-60.03%	-65.78%
RSX	18.03	1.02	6.00%	-4.60%	40.31%	7.96%	-65.70%	-57.38%	-65.33%	-63.98%

The country market ETFs were mixed. Germany (EWG), UK (EWU), Russia (RSX) and India (IFN) were down W/W despite large gains on Friday. The others had solid weekly gains.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA (-4.09% to 8943.81), S&P 500 (-3.90% to 930.99), NASDAQ Composite (-4.27% to 1647.40), and Russell 2000 small cap index (-5.90% to 505.79) were all down notably more than the other equity markets of the world.

US banks are forcing selling by under-margined hedge funds. Mutual funds are selling in order to meet the wave of redemptions.

The biggest gainers in the DJIA this week were: KO +5.0%; VZ +1.3%; T +0.9%; MMM +0.8%; and CAT +0.7%. All other DJIA components dropped W/W.

GM, which at -2.7% was the only loser a week ago, plunged -24.7% this week to $4.36. CEO Rick Wagoner now says he will have to go begging to Washington. Remarkable to me is that had John McCain been elected President he would have been talking to the owner of the Japanese SUV shown driving off into the sunset.

Reminds me of a trade show I attended once when a very senior trade representative of the Ontario govt told me he was off to Buffalo for the weekend to do some personal shopping because he couldn’t refuse the currency-based deals. These people can say whatever they want to get the confidence of the voters; it’s how they act that matters.

The laggards among gainers were JNJ +0.9%, MSFT +1.7%, KO +5.9%, and PFE +6.9%.

A week ago here, I wrote, “This week there were 29 of 30 DJIA stocks that were winners. The loser, GM, is not a blue chip. The company is presently being restructured for a merger and a hiving of GMAC into a bank. Trading GM is a gamble, not a speculation.” As it turned out this week, it was a bad gamble. Rick Wagoner has to go; new management is desperately needed there – somebody who can build well-engineered cars.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KO	46.25	1.76	3.96%	4.97%	11.15%	11.45%	-24.29%	-14.37%	-18.90%	-22.87%
VZ	30.05	0.80	2.74%	1.28%	19.82%	12.25%	-30.46%	-10.83%	-21.50%	-30.28%
T	27.00	1.01	3.89%	0.86%	9.40%	20.43%	-34.15%	-10.92%	-30.45%	-30.16%
MMM	64.83	2.47	3.96%	0.82%	8.76%	19.48%	-21.62%	-8.92%	-15.45%	-22.14%
CAT	38.45	0.85	2.26%	0.65%	15.47%	-10.85%	-45.56%	-44.22%	-52.90%	-47.76%
PG	64.49	1.14	1.80%	-0.08%	9.55%	8.28%	-10.81%	-4.43%	-1.99%	-7.10%
XOM	73.95	3.99	5.70%	-0.23%	7.11%	18.59%	-20.92%	-4.51%	-16.74%	-15.19%
CVX	73.46	3.35	4.78%	-1.53%	14.94%	27.03%	-21.40%	-11.95%	-22.90%	-16.08%
JNJ	60.22	2.30	3.97%	-1.83%	-0.94%	7.82%	-8.63%	-14.76%	-10.00%	-5.77%
KFT	28.49	0.47	1.68%	-2.36%	5.13%	4.55%	-11.11%	-10.83%	-9.64%	-14.52%
WMT	54.39	0.90	1.68%	-2.54%	5.82%	6.75%	15.97%	-4.51%	-4.29%	23.81%
AA	11.19	0.93	9.06%	-2.70%	18.92%	-0.53%	-69.03%	-64.81%	-70.62%	-70.08%
GE	18.86	0.52	2.84%	-3.33%	5.78%	-12.28%	-48.69%	-33.99%	-42.09%	-51.74%
MSFT	21.50	0.62	2.97%	-3.72%	-2.09%	0.00%	-38.96%	-21.50%	-26.40%	-39.47%
MCD	55.47	1.30	2.40%	-4.25%	4.54%	3.97%	-4.53%	-10.33%	-6.58%	-4.98%
PFE	16.86	0.49	2.99%	-4.80%	1.75%	11.36%	-26.41%	-12.23%	-15.36%	-27.70%
DD	30.46	1.45	5.00%	-4.93%	3.85%	-8.80%	-30.36%	-29.75%	-37.25%	-35.40%
UTX	51.81	1.20	2.37%	-5.73%	9.51%	8.78%	-31.11%	-19.97%	-29.06%	-30.42%
MRK	28.92	1.06	3.80%	-6.56%	5.74%	10.26%	-49.59%	-17.09%	-25.87%	-46.64%
IBM	86.27	1.12	1.32%	-7.21%	5.12%	-1.69%	-17.59%	-33.15%	-30.51%	-22.34%
AXP	25.31	0.39	1.57%	-7.96%	5.24%	9.33%	-50.41%	-30.47%	-48.03%	-54.29%
JPM	37.75	-0.51	-1.33%	-8.48%	6.55%	-9.34%	-10.48%	-5.17%	-18.94%	-10.63%
INTC	14.63	0.76	5.48%	-8.73%	2.45%	-3.69%	-42.29%	-38.19%	-36.86%	-45.61%
HPQ	34.64	1.00	2.97%	-9.51%	6.78%	-6.38%	-30.46%	-23.88%	-28.80%	-33.18%
DIS	23.36	0.55	2.41%	-9.84%	3.32%	1.39%	-26.63%	-24.45%	-32.68%	-30.27%
HD	21.06	0.13	0.62%	-10.72%	13.78%	6.63%	-19.34%	-13.97%	-26.26%	-28.22%
BA	46.58	0.86	1.88%	-11.14%	2.96%	11.44%	-46.22%	-28.00%	-44.91%	-51.92%
C	11.82	0.30	2.60%	-13.41%	-2.64%	-16.23%	-59.13%	-36.00%	-51.72%	-64.62%
BAC	20.49	0.37	1.84%	-15.23%	-2.75%	-1.82%	-49.48%	-34.99%	-46.08%	-52.69%
GM	4.3600	-0.4400	-9.17%	-24.70%	-26.72%	-10.84%	-82.14%	-55.28%	-79.63%	-87.16%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AXP BA BAC C CAT CVX DD DIS GE GM HD HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KFT KO MCD MMM MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on two DJIA components, neither of which are Cara 100 companies: Coca-Cola (KO) and Kraft Foods (KR).

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Google Finance file)
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Nov. 7: next one is due Feb. 6)

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Before getting into WMT, let me continue with the CAT story.

This week, the CAT lived, closing at $38.20 (+14.7% W/W) after hitting a high of 39.19. The low was 32.00. Had you written the written the Jan 30 puts at $3.05, you could have bought them back at the closing Friday $1.57 bid, for a five-day gain of $1.52 (ie, +97% gain). Let’s say we did that to lower our cost base to 33.30-1.52=31.78. At a close this week of 38.20, you are now in the money +$6.52 (+20.5%).

Do you recall my statement, “If you get into the market now, I believe your stocks will almost double within three years. If you choose the right ones, they ought to double in three to six months… I hope you dance.” Of course you remember. We’ll, CAT isn’t a double after one week, but it’s already up +20.5% and I’ve got 25 weeks to make good on my statement. With a Bull market, that will happen. But the bigger point is that trading involves art as much as science. You have to have a feel for the market. You have to know the company and you must focus on the data and the percentage moves possible with various strategies and tactics.

In the case of CAT, for example, with my cost base down to 31.78, I might write a Jan 40 call at $3.40 bid, taking my cost base down to 28.38. In 75 days, should I get taken out at 40, which would be likely, my profit is 40.00-28.38=11.62 for a gain in less than 80 days of +41.0%. That’s close enough to my statement of +50% in 183 days (6 months). Then again, there are other tactics I could use to keep the stock and still reduce my risk.

None of these tactics were discussed with my professional options advisor. My optionsoracle, by the way, has 27 years experience as an institutional broker, market maker, independent trader and Member of the Chicago Board Options Exchange. When it comes to money, I leave as little as possible to chance; but when I’m teaching, this stuff rolls off the top of my head.

You would have been taken out in three days at $40, about when the stock hit a high of $43.58. Was this a disappointment? Hardly, the low the next day was $37.34, and the close on Friday was $38.45. You made a gain of +41.0% in what, two weeks?

I gave you the trade.

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Re Wal-Mart, do you recall my WIR#32 (August 10)?

Wal-Mart is a company many people love to hate, for some reason. For me it is a member of the Cara 100 and a portfolio core holding, although one that requires adroit buy and sell timing and use of put and call option writes to maintain a suitable Total Return.

I see no reason to say much positive about the stock right now. Certainly I am not bullish in the short run.

You know when I was discussing it as a purchase candidate. You might recall that in the Aug-27-07 WIR, I recommended “parking the family jewels in a Wal-Mart parking lot”. The price closed at $43.63 that week. So why today at $57.86, where you could have sold for $61.00 two weeks ago (a +40.0% capital gain plus the nice dividend), would I be excited about the stock? I’m not.

But if you really want to get an insight into how I think about trading markets, please revert to WIR#6 Feb 10, 2007, when I reviewed WMT off the top (when the price was $47.97). You will see my reasons for why I was buying WMT below 43 much later in the year. You will also see how I opined that the banks were nuts for buying Fortress Investment Group (FIG) at $35. It went to $8 if anybody cares. But I was telling you that the bank analysts had a hate on for Wal-Mart and it was a terrific Cara 100 company.

So who called it? But you knew that already. (LOL)

I love this stuff.

By writing a 60 call the week of Aug-8, you would have taken in another couple bucks in options premium and then around Sept 19 when WMT hit a high of $63.85, you would have had the stock that was priced at $57.63 on the Friday close Aug-8 called from you at $60 six weeks later. Then the stock worked its way down three weeks after that to a low of $47.40 on Oct-10. How good is that! Proof of concept.

Moreover, on the mid-October dip, you could have written the 40 and 45 puts or gone long the stock or put on any of numerous option trades and made significant profits as the stock worked itself back up to 55-56 in two or three weeks.

Wal-Mart might not be everybody’s favorite shopping place, but WMT makes a great dancing partner.

Today, it, like most consumer stocks is not on my desirables list. The economic data tells you why. But their business model is a good one and the company continues to perform well. With a $15 billion stock buy-back in the works, WMT ought to do well over the next several years. But careful trading of options is going to be required to generate satisfactory profits in the long run.

The Value Line report is well done.

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports. I added the Google Finance links, which are superb.

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Google Finance file)
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 15: next one is due Nov. 14)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Google Finance file)
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 15: next one is due Nov. 14)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Google Finance file)
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Google Finance file)
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Google Finance file)
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Google Finance file)
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Google Finance file)
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Google Finance file)
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Google Finance file)
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 29: next one is due Nov. 28)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Google Finance file)
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance fle)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 29: next one is due Nov. 28)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(MCD: Google Finance file)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sept. 5: next one is due Dec. 5)

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Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Google Finance file)
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Sep. 13: next one is due Dec. 12)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Google Finance file)
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 13: next one is due Dec. 12)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 19: next one is due Dec. 19)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Google Finance file)
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Sep. 26: next one is due Dec. 26)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Google Finance file)
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Sep. 26: next one is due Dec. 26)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Google Finance file)
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 3: next one is due Jan. 2)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Google Finance file)
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 3: next one is due Jan. 2)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 10: next one is due Jan. 9)

---

Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Oct. 10: next one is due Jan. 9)

---

IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Oct. 10: next one is due Jan. 9)

---

Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Oct. 10: next one is due Jan. 9)

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Google Finance file)
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Oct. 17: next one is due Jan. 16)

---

Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Google Finance file)
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Oct. 17: next one is due Jan. 16)

---

Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Google Finance file)
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Oct. 17: next one is due Jan. 16)

---

Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Google Finance file)
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Oct. 17: next one is due Jan. 16)

---

United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Google Finance file)
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Oct 24: next one is due Jan. 23)

---

Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Google Finance file)
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Oct 24: next one is due Jan. 23)

Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Google Finance file)
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Oct. 31: next one is due Jan. 30)

---

Kraft Foods [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KFT: Google Finance file)
(KFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(KFT: StockChart chart)
(KFT: Billcara2 chart)
(KFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KFT: Value Line Report Oct. 31: next one is due Jan. 30)

---

Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Google Finance file)
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Nov. 7: next one is due Feb. 6)

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Wrap-up:

A week ago I closed with the statement that too many unrewarding “things take up endless amounts of people’s time. In time, we are all dead… I need to improve my life; and I think you do too. Highest quality and best price always does it. Have a great day.”

As the weeks roll by, with the challenges this market presents, I think that many people are happy to spend some time here. That makes me happy too because I know that you are becoming more sophisticated in the ways of the market.

Easter Week 2009 will mark the fifth anniversary of this blog. To celebrate, I am planning a gathering of the community in The Bahamas for all who wish to join me. The dates are April 3-13.

Weather wise, it’s my favorite time of year in Nassau. There will be daily highs of 81 degrees F, and lows of 68; the water temperature will be 76, and over the ten days there is likely to be a total of 0.7 inches of rain. There will be low humidity and clear, breezy days.

If you’d care to join us, send a note to ctab409 [at] billcara.com. If you need local hotel accommodations, I will make the arrangements at lower group prices. Even if you can manage to be here just a few days, this will be a special time. I intend to put on a party, but will also introduce you to some well-known CEOs, traders and others.

If you learned to dance, you can afford to take a break. I hope you do.

Speaking of the dead; today is a special day. For many people in the world, today is Remembrance Day, Poppy Day, Armistice Day or Veterans Day.

Observance in the Commonwealth

Australia
Bermuda
Canada
New Zealand
Papua New Guinea
South Africa
United Kingdom

Outside the Commonwealth

France
Germany
Republic of Ireland
United States
Anglican and Roman Catholics

Strong values are instilled in young children on this day. My first recollection of primary school was standing in an auditorium listening to the Last Post. I was five or six. The two minutes of silence that followed the bugle call frightened me. I have never forgotten the moment and I will never forget those soldiers who fought and died for their country.

May they rest in peace.

My Dad served Canada for five years in WWII. He volunteered four times: once to the Air Force, once to the Navy, and twice to the Army, which finally accepted him. He told me the difficulty being accepted was because he was Italian and Canada was at war with Italy. While in Europe, he was made a Sargeant. After Italy fell to the Allies, he was ordered to go there as a translator. “But,” he protested, “I don’t speak a word of Italian.”

He would never talk about the war until the final few months before he passed in 2005. But he was proud and thankful of the Army that trained him to be an electrician. It gave him a job for life. He was never unemployed.

You wonder why the veterans of today cannot be trained as computer technicians and the like. We owe them; they should never be unemployed.

Please think about it today and on November 11.

Canada

UK

USA

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