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November 18, 2008
Daily Report for Tue, Nov 18, 2008
The banks are in chaos. The US T-Bill yield is almost zero. Commodity prices are collapsing. Traders are desperate. What next? Well, today the Treasury Secretary and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank testify in Congress. This ought to be an interesting day.
Yesterday, the DJIA (-223.73 -2.63% to 8273.58), S&P 500 (-22.54 -2.58% to 850.75) and NASDAQ Composite (-34.80 -2.29% to 1482.05) were hammered again. Confusion reigns.
The only sector that had signs of gaining on the day, Utilities (XLU -0.17%), slipped into negative territory at the close. The worst hit were the Financials (XLF -6.4%), sunk mostly by the Broker-Dealers ($XBD -6.3%), which was largely a case of the sinking of Goldman Sachs (-6.4%).
The Goldminers ($XAU -4.7%) also dropped. $GOLD was only down 50 cents an oz to $742.00, however. $WTIC Crude Oil dipped -$2.11/bbl to 54.49/bbl.
The Cara 100 saw GOL Airlines (GOL) had soared +12.2%. Tata Motors (TTM) drove +7.0% to higher ground. RIMM +5.6% sent a nice message and is also popular in the pre-market today. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), though not a Cara 100 (but close), was very very strong in the pre-market. Three Canadian stocks were the leading losers on the day: Silver Wheaton (SLW -13.2%), Goldcorp (GG -9.2%) and Manulife Financial (MFC -8.2%). VIP -7.5% wasn’t much of a VIP. Disney (DIS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) both dropped -6.4%. GS was dropped from the Cara 100 this past weekend.
I quickly reviewed DIS last week end as well:
Re Disney, the Value Line report was done at $26.02 and the DIS closed the week at 21.08, so the numbers are so out of whack, the analysis doesn’t make sense.The corporate balance sheet is just so-so. It’s rated A, but doesn’t look that strong. I don’t care for the deficit working capital ratio in tough economic times. A severe recession could hurt the stock further.
But I do like the management, and will keep the company on the Cara 100 list.
DIS closed Monday at $19.74.
There were two 52-week lows among the Cara 100: Electronic Arts (ERTS) at 19.26 and Westpac Banking (WBK) at 51.41. I guess people (i) have no time for games and (ii) they are worrying about their banks. The WBK had a high this month of 84.37, closing yesterday at 53.00. In the Fall a year ago, WBK hit 144.
The US long bond ($USB) gained +0.22% to 118.81. T-Bill’s were yielding just 0.09% -- the worst ever.
On the forex front, all major currencies gained a bit, while the Swiss Franc dipped -0.75%. The $USD was up +0.09% to 86.80. The Euro was up +0.31% to 126.43. The Pound +1.73%, the Yen +0.77% and the Loonie +0.89% were stronger as well. It’s surprising that $GOLD did not dip further, but the almost zero rate on T-Bills means that gold, which doesn’t pay a yield was also attractive.
Overnight, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were all hammered. The Japanese Nikkei (-2.28% to 8328.4), Hong Kong (-4.54% to 12915.9), Shanghai (-6.31% to 1902.4), Australia (-3.47% to 3513.4) and India (-3.81% to 8937.2) all have eyes on Washington. Traders there were unhappy that the G-20 meetings produced no policy that might be implemented quickly with desirable results.
At 9:15am ET (vs 8am ET) today, the French CAC was down -1.01% (-1.69%), German DAX -1.10% (-2.04%), and UK FTSE -0.79% (-1.69%). Banks are pulling equity markets down with them, but the picture has improved over the past couple hours.
The gold, palladium, platinum, and silver spot prices at 9:15 am ET were: 736.15, 213, 822, and 9.27.
The Euro is a bit soft at 126.10 and $USD a bit stronger at 87.38.
Crude Oil is up +$0.44 to 55.93, and the DJIA futures still down -30 at 8929, but improving.
Comments & Outlook
Paulson goes to the Hill today to discuss his new plan to bail-out America. The legacy of this once-successful man is being reduced to unkind limericks, and rightly so.
(INO.com/AP) The two top salesmen for a $700 billion financial bailout are in for a grilling by Capitol Hill lawmakers just one week after the administration officially ditched the original strategy behind the rescue. In a profile published Tuesday in The Washington Post, Paulson, who is overseeing the bailout program for the Bush administration, said he was also working on a proposal that would allow the government to take over a wide range of financial institutions --not just banks-- that are in danger of collapse....
In a televised interview by the WSJ, Treasury Secretary Paulson got instantly testy and defensive when asked to explain his experimental practices right off the top of the interview. To paraphrase, Paulson retorted, “We saved the public’s ass. The public has seen what’s happened to the economy and the bank failures. It’s hard to get credit for what didn’t.”
The arrogance of this man is beyond belief. The “grilling” in Congress ought to be interesting. Let’s look into the man’s eyes when he’s asked the tough questions he knows are going to be asked. Let’s see if he shows us what happens to a bully who gets cornered by a gang of people he really doesn’t like.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 15: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 13: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 14: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 13: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 18, 2008 09:29:58 AM | Category: Daily Report









