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November 18, 2008

Daily Report for Tue, Nov 18, 2008

The banks are in chaos. The US T-Bill yield is almost zero. Commodity prices are collapsing. Traders are desperate. What next? Well, today the Treasury Secretary and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank testify in Congress. This ought to be an interesting day.

Yesterday, the DJIA (-223.73 -2.63% to 8273.58), S&P 500 (-22.54 -2.58% to 850.75) and NASDAQ Composite (-34.80 -2.29% to 1482.05) were hammered again. Confusion reigns.

The only sector that had signs of gaining on the day, Utilities (XLU -0.17%), slipped into negative territory at the close. The worst hit were the Financials (XLF -6.4%), sunk mostly by the Broker-Dealers ($XBD -6.3%), which was largely a case of the sinking of Goldman Sachs (-6.4%).

The Goldminers ($XAU -4.7%) also dropped. $GOLD was only down 50 cents an oz to $742.00, however. $WTIC Crude Oil dipped -$2.11/bbl to 54.49/bbl.

The Cara 100 saw GOL Airlines (GOL) had soared +12.2%. Tata Motors (TTM) drove +7.0% to higher ground. RIMM +5.6% sent a nice message and is also popular in the pre-market today. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), though not a Cara 100 (but close), was very very strong in the pre-market. Three Canadian stocks were the leading losers on the day: Silver Wheaton (SLW -13.2%), Goldcorp (GG -9.2%) and Manulife Financial (MFC -8.2%). VIP -7.5% wasn’t much of a VIP. Disney (DIS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) both dropped -6.4%. GS was dropped from the Cara 100 this past weekend.

I quickly reviewed DIS last week end as well:

Re Disney, the Value Line report was done at $26.02 and the DIS closed the week at 21.08, so the numbers are so out of whack, the analysis doesn’t make sense.

The corporate balance sheet is just so-so. It’s rated A, but doesn’t look that strong. I don’t care for the deficit working capital ratio in tough economic times. A severe recession could hurt the stock further.

But I do like the management, and will keep the company on the Cara 100 list.

DIS closed Monday at $19.74.

There were two 52-week lows among the Cara 100: Electronic Arts (ERTS) at 19.26 and Westpac Banking (WBK) at 51.41. I guess people (i) have no time for games and (ii) they are worrying about their banks. The WBK had a high this month of 84.37, closing yesterday at 53.00. In the Fall a year ago, WBK hit 144.

The US long bond ($USB) gained +0.22% to 118.81. T-Bill’s were yielding just 0.09% -- the worst ever.

On the forex front, all major currencies gained a bit, while the Swiss Franc dipped -0.75%. The $USD was up +0.09% to 86.80. The Euro was up +0.31% to 126.43. The Pound +1.73%, the Yen +0.77% and the Loonie +0.89% were stronger as well. It’s surprising that $GOLD did not dip further, but the almost zero rate on T-Bills means that gold, which doesn’t pay a yield was also attractive.

Overnight, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were all hammered. The Japanese Nikkei (-2.28% to 8328.4), Hong Kong (-4.54% to 12915.9), Shanghai (-6.31% to 1902.4), Australia (-3.47% to 3513.4) and India (-3.81% to 8937.2) all have eyes on Washington. Traders there were unhappy that the G-20 meetings produced no policy that might be implemented quickly with desirable results.

At 9:15am ET (vs 8am ET) today, the French CAC was down -1.01% (-1.69%), German DAX -1.10% (-2.04%), and UK FTSE -0.79% (-1.69%). Banks are pulling equity markets down with them, but the picture has improved over the past couple hours.

The gold, palladium, platinum, and silver spot prices at 9:15 am ET were: 736.15, 213, 822, and 9.27.

The Euro is a bit soft at 126.10 and $USD a bit stronger at 87.38.

Crude Oil is up +$0.44 to 55.93, and the DJIA futures still down -30 at 8929, but improving.


Comments & Outlook

Paulson goes to the Hill today to discuss his new plan to bail-out America. The legacy of this once-successful man is being reduced to unkind limericks, and rightly so.

(INO.com/AP) The two top salesmen for a $700 billion financial bailout are in for a grilling by Capitol Hill lawmakers just one week after the administration officially ditched the original strategy behind the rescue. In a profile published Tuesday in The Washington Post, Paulson, who is overseeing the bailout program for the Bush administration, said he was also working on a proposal that would allow the government to take over a wide range of financial institutions --not just banks-- that are in danger of collapse....

In a televised interview by the WSJ, Treasury Secretary Paulson got instantly testy and defensive when asked to explain his experimental practices right off the top of the interview. To paraphrase, Paulson retorted, “We saved the public’s ass. The public has seen what’s happened to the economy and the bank failures. It’s hard to get credit for what didn’t.”

The arrogance of this man is beyond belief. The “grilling” in Congress ought to be interesting. Let’s look into the man’s eyes when he’s asked the tough questions he knows are going to be asked. Let’s see if he shows us what happens to a bully who gets cornered by a gang of people he really doesn’t like.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 15: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 13: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU

Table 12: US Utilities


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 14: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 13: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 18, 2008 09:29:58 AM | Category: Daily Report