What helped the market to open strongly was news that included a massive stimulus package announced by the Chinese government, positive same-store-sales results from McDonalds (MCD) and the restructuring of the humungous financing agreement between AIG and the US Treasury.

At the close, the DJIA (-73.27 -0.82% to 8870.54), the S&P 500 (-11.78 -1.27% to 919.21) and NASDAQ Composite (-30.66 -1.86% to 1616.74) were all down. The Toronto Composite gained a bit (+92.59 +0.96% to 9688.8), but the Venture Board (-7.86 -0.85% to 914.02) was down.

Energy (XLE) and Consumer Staples (XLP) gained +0.3% each, but were the only positive sectors. Basic Materials (XLB) was flat as Goldminers ($XAU +4.6%) gained a bit. Financials (XLF -3.0%), Cons. Discretionary (XLY -2.3%) and Utilities (XLU -2.4%) were the worst of the losers.

The REITs ($DJR -9.1%) and Broker-Dealers ($XBD -7.0%) were worst hit.

Money flowed into the safe haven of the US Bond market. $USB was up +1.10% to 117.64. T-Bill yield is no down to 0.20%!!!

The safer $USD (+0.19% to 86.08) rallied against the Pound ($XBP -0.17%) and Cdn Loonie ($CDW -0.42%). This morning though, the $USD is very strong (86.60) and the Euro is down to 126.90.

$GOLD had a good start to the day yesterday, but later came well off its high. Copper and Nickel prices were much stronger on the China stimulus program news. Today the precious metals, like the energy commodities are all down a lot.

Spot prices at 8:00am ET today for gold, palladium, platinum and silver (vs yesterday morning) are, respectively: 738.50 (752.22); 215 (224); 827 (872); and 9.90 (10.32). Definitely weaker. $GOLD futures are down -$10.40/oz to 736.40.

$WTIC crude oil futures are down to 59.70/bbl.

Earlier today, the Asia-Pacific markets were weak: Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-3.00% to 8809.3); India’s Sensex BSE 30 (-6.61% to 9839.7); Australia (-3.40% to 3921.8); Shanghai (-1.66% to 1843.6); and Hong Kong (-4.77% to 14040.9).

In Europe at mid-day, the equity markets are down sharply. The price at 8:00am ET: French CAC -3.00%; German DAX -3.00%; and UK FTSE -2.83.

DJIA futures are down -163 to 8724. The commodity-related sectors are likely to be hit this morning.

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Comments & Outlook

There is no change in the underlying drivers in the equity market: (i) low volume, (ii) forced selling of under-margined and mutual fund-related accounts, and (iii) a slow acquisition of long positions by private capital and the strongest of the hedge funds.

The cycle bottom process may take until the end of tax-loss selling season in late December. In the meantime, being “nimble” is the key to success.

An observation I had watching Bloomberg TV is that investment analysts and talking heads are more down to earth, giving us less hype. It’s clear that there is no consensus decision by the heavyweight capital managers to move the market higher.

The best play in this market is to sell volatility and use the options market time decay to your advantage.

But, there is a selective repositioning of portfolios underway, which I see from the Effective Volume studies of my Belgian-based associate Pascal Willain.

Also, there are three keys to playing the volatility: (i) the T-Bill yield, which tells you money flowing into or out of safe haven of the US Treasury, (ii) the share prices of the oligopolist base metal miners like BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale, and Xstrata, and (iii) the share prices of the major Chinese/Brazilian oil companies versus Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).

I now believe that the most likely case for equity market prices is that they will be held in check by embattled fund managers until late December. A volume break-out will be the key to the price break-out.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 15: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.

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10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

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15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 13: Senior gold equities

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20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

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25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

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30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

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35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

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40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

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45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities

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50 (telecom: IYZ)

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55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities

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International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 14: International equities perspective

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

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Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

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Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 13: Senior gold equities

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Daily British Pound Index:

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Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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Wrap-up