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November 13, 2008
Daily Report for Thu, Nov 13, 2008
Traders’ confidence sank Wednesday to a level not seen in thirty-five years as equities dropped sharply during the day and never recovered. Comparisons to 1973-74 and 1987 are inevitable.
At the close, the DJIA (-441.30 -4.73% to 8282.66), the S&P 500 (-46.65 -5.19% to 852.30) and NASDAQ Composite (-81.69 -5.17% to 1499.21) closed at the session lows. The Toronto Composite lost (-501.43 -5.32% to 8922.57), and the Venture Board (-49.83 -5.71% to 822.50) dropped even more.
There was no best performing sector yesterday in NY. The worst was Energy (XLE -8.2%).
Airlines ($XAL -12.9%) and Goldminers ($XAU -10.1%) were weakest among industry groups. There were no winners. $GOLD dropped -$14.50/oz ($28.50/oz over two days) to 718.30, and $WTIC crude oil dropped -$3.17/bbl to 56.16, which is a drop of -$6.25/bbl over two days.
Interestingly, there were zero gainers in the Cara 100 yesterday. Volume continued very weak, giving much the same appearance as the 1973-74 market environment. Most of the trading is being done by automated program decision-making.
The worst hit of the Cara 100 were Teck Corp (TCK -27.8%) to a 52-week intra-day low of $4.86; Brunswick Corp (BC -24.1%) to a 52-week intra-day low of $2.39. For high-quality corporations, these are shocking prices. General Electric (GE) hit a 52-week low of $16.05 and Goldman Sachs did the same at $66.79.
Even bonds sold off as traders went to cash. The $USB long bond dropped -0.29% to 118.09, as yields also softened. The annualized US T-Bill yield has fallen to the absurd level of 0.140%. Clearly, the market is forecasting a further rate cut of -50 basis points by the Fed.
The $USD gained +0.46% to 87.54 as the Euro ($XEU) dropped the same. But the big switch was from British Pounds (-3.00% to 149.17) and Cdn Loonies (-2.48% to 80.75) into Japanese Yen (+2.98% to 105.50). These are massive moves, which will materially impact the Japanese exporters.
Earlier today, the Asia-Pacific markets were very weak: Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-5.25% to 8238.6); Australia (-5.44% to 3672.4.6); Shanghai (+3.68% to 1927.6); and Hong Kong (-5.15% to 13221.4) were, except for shanghai, quite negative.
In Europe in mid-session today (6:30am ET), the equity markets are down as well: French CAC -0.56%; German DAX -1.77%; and UK FTSE -2.37.
Spot prices at 6:52am ET today for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are, respectively: 714.88; 208; 822; and 9.37, which, like crude oil, continue to fall.
$WTIC crude oil futures are down to 56.03/bbl.
DJIA futures are at 8261 (-19).
Comments & Outlook
Traders have lost all confidence in US Treasury Secretary Paulson. Asked to explain why he arbitrarily changed the mandate of the $700 billion bail-out package, he looked the media in the eye and said, “You should be thanking me.” What kind of nonsense is that?
When the Congress of the United States votes a clear mandate to the Administration of previously unimaginable proportions, common sense would dictate that the Treasury Secretary would have called a press conference to announce his required changes prior to taking the extreme reversal of action he did.
The US Treasury has apparently become the personal fiefdom of King Henry Paulson. If he keeps it up, it will be, metaphorically speaking, off with his neck. His court will react in the strongest way.
I have been saying this for maybe 18 months now. The people are starting to listen. Henry Paulson is and has been the architect of the demise of capital markets and the wanton destruction of the US financial services industry. While at Goldman Sachs, he was the industry leader who promoted the financial engineering of products too sophisticated for mere mortals like you and I to understand. He and his colleagues became rich as a result of what people today resoundingly call bad management practices. Then he took a three-year job at an annual cost to the US taxpayer of $60 million (his personal take), where he proceeded to pull his Goldman Sachs people into key positions in Treasury and the Fed. They too stiffed the US taxpayer with their personal capital gains “relief” packages accorded to private sector despots who joined the so-called “public” service.
Once in control of King Henry’s fiefdom, these autocrats have taken over $1 trillion from the public treasury and are doling it out as they see fit.
If there is a single reason why capital markets are in disarray, you are looking at the big guy stammer and stutter through his press conferences. As for personal communications, Henry was always better with a knife anyway.
The good side to all this is that now the public sees the enemy, sees their M.O., their culture, their management practices. Is this any different from what was portrayed in the movie Wall Street? This is Wall Street – only now the show has come to Washington.
What is going down today is worse than capital market prices, which will come back at some point; it is fraud on a level never seen in history. Somebody had better take action soon. Lame ducks are not going to help the people.
Btw, the Goldcorp (GG) report I issued before the open yesterday contained a recommendation that within hours was almost executed: there was a stop at $18.90, and the session low was $19.36.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 15: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 13: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 14: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 13: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 13, 2008 08:27:07 AM | Category: Daily Report








