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November 22, 2008
Daily Report for Sat, Nov 22, 2008
In July, Google reported having over 1 trillion record locators (url’s). That’s a 1 followed by 12 zero’s, or 1 million times 1 million. It’s a lot. However, if you want to see the only person in the entire database who gave you the “Trade of the Generation”, you’ll find the answer here.
I must have a lot of readers because yesterday $GOLD (+$43.10 +5.8% to 791.80) and $XAU (+26.1% to 88.80) both soared. Either that or I must be clairvoyant.
It was just Wednesday November 12 that I gave you my Report on Goldcorp (GG). When the price was $17.75, I said we went long and with put writes our cost basis was well under $17. Seven trading sessions later, GG closed at $24.22 (+41%). The gain yesterday, after I gave you the TOG was +27.3%.
In time, people will see they are not getting this kind of advice from UBS, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch or whomever. I do it here free.
Securities industry rules state that financial advisors like me must state that past results do not guarantee… (yada yada) … but the fact is that in this blog I don’t run a portfolio; I discuss case studies with subsequent proof of concept (or otherwise) so that more people can learn to trade. At some point soon, however, I do plan to reference my actual portfolio results here – every day in a chart box that is linked to my professional site, and that’s where you will see lots of disclaimers, etc. Taking on clients quickly – I wish we could work faster, but I believe in doing it slow and right – I look forward to the ultimate challenge.
There is no question the market is a challenge. Most people have lost fortunes if they sold. If they decided to hang in, they will recover. My point to all this is that when the market was in a cycle top phase, I said “Sell” and most people thought I was nuts. When recently I said “Buy,” the same people thought I was nuts. I’m sure their financial advisors agreed. It’s why those financial advisors are not listed by Google under the category “Trade of the Generation.” You see, those people just want your money whereas I just want you to do better. I’m not one of “them” – I never will be.
Yesterday was the first day of higher volume. Not just Citigroup (C), which traded 1 billion shares, but volume was high right across the board. Markets erupted right after rumors started a few minutes before 3pm ET (with the DJIA flat on the day) that Tim Geithner, the current head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, was President-elect Obama’s choice for Treasury Secretary.
By the end of the day, the DJIA (+494.13 +6.54% to 8046.42), S&P 500 (+47.59 +6.32% to 800.03) and NASDAQ Composite (+68.23 +5.18% to 1384.35) set records.
All sectors, all industries and 91 of the Cara 100 closed higher. There were fewer 52-week lows, and many of those had terrific last hour gains -- like Cara 100 IBM and First Solar for example. IBM hit 69.50 but closed at 74.88 (+7.75% off the low) and FSLR hit 85.28 and closed at 92.81 (+8.83% off the low).
The leading sectors were the Energy (XLE +11.2%) and Utilities (XLU +10.0%). The laggard was Healthcare (XLV +0.1%).
Already stated, the Goldminers ($XAU +26.7%) were by far the leading industry, but NatGas ($XNG +13.3%) and Big Oil ($XOI +12.4%) were also very strong. Biotech ($BTK +0.4%) and Airlines ($XAL +0.2%) were the laggards.
In Canada, the Toronto Composite jumped +430.63 +5.57% to 8155.39, while the Venture Board was up much less, +11.88 +1.72% to 703.83.
Electronic brokers had a record setting volume/transactions day.
The Cara 100 big winners were the goldminers Barrick (ABX +31.3%) and Goldcorp (GG +27.3%). Others were PDA +19.7%, KB +19.2% and BHP 18.3%. The losers were led by TGP -7.9%, and DELL -5.2%. Dell reported lower quarterly revenues than a year ago.
The US long bond ($USB) gained +0.41% to 126.30, which yields just 3.663%. As the bond market closed before equities soared, it’s quite likely that $USB reached a peak yesterday. T-Bill’s were yielding just 0.010%. That yield will likely rise on Monday as capital flows back into equities.
On the forex front, the $USD was down -0.21% to 87.80. The Euro was up +0.99% to 125.87. The Pound (+1.11% to 149.02) and the Loonie (+1.58% to 78.57) were huge winners, while the Yen (-2.20% to 104.24) was the big loser.
$WTIC (Crude Oil) lost -$0.95/bbl to 48.47, but that market will lift substantially on Monday as capital flows back into equities and commodities and out of cash and bonds.
Earlier in the day, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were higher except for the Shanghai Composite (-0.72% to 1969.4). The Japanese Nikkei (+2.70% to 7910.8), Hong Kong (+2.93% to 12659.2), Australia (+1.63% to 3386.9) and India (+5.49% to 8915.2) all traded higher. Banks and beneficiaries of higher commodities were strong.
At the close in Europe, the French CAC was down -3.33% to 2881.26; the German DAX -2.20% to 4127.41; and UK FTSE -2.52% to 3777.27. But those markets closed well before the Geithner to Treasury rumor/announcement. They should open with a flourish on Monday.
I wrote in yesterday’s Daily Report, “Yesterday in Seeking Alpha and here in the blog I gave the Trade of the Generation re sell bonds and buy gold/goldminers. Gold was 735.20 at the time, so it’s already up +33.00/oz.”
Spot gold, palladium, platinum and silver closed the week at 799.50, 182, 824, and 9.64 respectively. Gold is the best performer over the past few days.
The DJIA futures closed the week at 8034. January Crude Oil was 50.75. The Euro at 125.00 and the $USD at 87.135.
We live in interesting times. Even in The Bahamas.
Last night was the Wine Experience 2008 at the Sheraton Cable Beach and tomorrow is Jollification. Apparently there will be a bit of drinking going on there too. We had to move the Hash House Harrier run up to 11am to lead into Jollification.
The Burns House Group put on a splendid evening with orchestra, food and far too much wine, cognac and champagne to sample. Drinking and driving is legal here – probably the only country in the world where one can imbibe while driving and not be arrested. There were even police and defense force officers assisting last evening. I really don’t know how some people manage to get home from these events. I guess, being non-stop throughout the year, people here build up a resistance.
Anyway, it was rather difficult to write this report after making the rounds of 15 tables and “sampling” several from each. To thank the hosts, I purchased an expensive Hennessy (French Cognac), Ruffino Grappa (Italy’s Sangiovese), Cakebread Cellars (Napa Valley CA Cabernet Sauvignon), Jacob’s Creek (Aussie Shiraz), Louis Jadot (both the Chardonnay and Pinot Noir from Burgundy France), Kendall Jackson La Crema (Sonoma Coast CA Pinot Noir), and a Masi Masianco (Venezie Italy Pinot Grigio). Actually I bought three bottles of one of them.
I hear it’s an afternoon of shots of liqueur at Jollification tomorrow. So, I will have to work today to get the Week In Review done by 10:30am tomorrow. However, if my head still isn’t clear by then, the Hash run should put me in good shape for the afternoon.
Have a good day. Don’t forget, this week we are celebrating the Trade of the Generation. Next week, we’ll have to think of something else. But if I know this place – and I do – there’s always something else.
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 12: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

All Tables
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.96 |
| 6 Month | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.85 | 1.46 |
| 2 Year | 1.10 | 0.98 | 1.21 | 1.50 |
| 3 Year | 1.35 | 1.18 | 1.53 | 1.16 |
| 5 Year | 2.01 | 1.89 | 2.32 | 2.51 |
| 10 Year | 3.19 | 3.01 | 3.73 | 3.59 |
| 30 Year | 3.67 | 3.49 | 4.22 | 4.05 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 2.63 | 2.50 | 2.55 | 3.10 |
| 2yr AAA | 2.35 | 2.22 | 2.18 | 2.85 |
| 2yr A | 2.77 | 2.73 | 2.73 | 3.59 |
| 5yr AAA | 2.83 | 2.86 | 3.11 | 3.59 |
| 5yr AA | 2.97 | 2.95 | 3.14 | 3.73 |
| 5yr A | 3.07 | 3.10 | 3.42 | 3.94 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.80 | 3.78 | 4.42 | 5.18 |
| 10yr AA | 3.82 | 3.81 | 4.03 | 4.39 |
| 10yr A | 3.88 | 3.81 | 4.27 | 5.78 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.12 | 5.21 | 5.05 | 5.04 |
| 20yr AA | 5.22 | 5.18 | 5.17 | 5.38 |
| 20yr A | 5.69 | 5.57 | 5.57 | 5.78 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 5.91 | 5.47 | 5.34 | 5.95 |
| 2yr A | 6.61 | 6.28 | 5.79 | 10.34 |
| 5yr AAA | 4.93 | 5.08 | 5.58 | 5.57 |
| 5yr AA | 6.93 | 6.87 | 6.58 | 6.50 |
| 5yr A | 7.62 | 7.56 | 7.32 | 7.40 |
| 10yr AAA | 4.97 | 4.81 | 5.50 | 6.10 |
| 10yr AA | 6.30 | 6.16 | 6.56 | 6.85 |
| 10yr A | 7.00 | 6.81 | 6.88 | 7.18 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.87 | 5.77 | 6.35 | 6.11 |
| 20yr AA | 5.97 | 5.95 | 6.43 | 6.03 |
| 20yr A | 9.61 | 9.57 | 8.06 | 7.23 |
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 12: US Utilities
Table 13: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 14: International equities perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 15: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 22, 2008 05:30:01 AM | Category: Daily Report








