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November 15, 2008
Daily Report for Sat, Nov 15, 2008
Had you left your market monitor unattended at 3:00pm ET on Friday, and returned at 4:00pm, you would hardly believe your eyes. But, by extrapolating the US equity market to the rest of the world (about $44 trillion), you would have seen that $2 trillion in global market capital was wiped out in a single hour.
In that closing hour, the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite plunged -4.71%, -4.77% and -4.50% respectively.
By the end of the day, the DJIA (-337.94 -3.82% to 8497.31), the S&P 500 (-38.00 -4.17% to 873.29) and NASDAQ Composite (-79.85 -5.00% to 1516.85) were down sharply. Yet at 3:00pm these markets had been higher.
By way of explanation, Talking Heads will delve into esoteric and ridiculous concepts like the previous day’s full moon, the debunking of Peak Oil Theory, the effectiveness of Nouriel Roubini and/or Marc Faber (take your pick), and other such nonsense that had nothing to do with the firing of the 3 o’clock gun that sank the market.
Jim Cramer opined (or is it shrieked?) that something big is going down this weekend, which boggles the mind that intelligent people would listen to that clap-trap. How is it, Mr Cramer, that the whole market – every sector – sank like a torpedo at the strike of 3pm, but after the close nobody could put their finger on the reason?
I have been around the market for almost 50 years – counting the time from when I first took (and passed) the home-study Canadian Securities Course, done in my Dad’s name because I was a minor, and personally couldn’t afford the fees at the time. I have never seen volatility like this.
There are some possible explanations, and maybe in combination there is a rationale. Who really knows? I do know that I refuse to get drawn into the discussion because it’s a fruitless exercise, and I will not waste my time.
But if you are a naval-gazer, I’ll throw out a couple reasons: (i) programmed trading run amok, (ii) effective spin-doctoring on CNBC, (iii) Nervous Nellie traders, (iv) profit-taking by quick and nimble day-traders, (v) naked shorts legally playing the ultra-short ETF’s, (vi) Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) prop desks ripping off the customers, and (vii) Mr. Market making an impression on Messrs Finance Ministers and Central Bankers of the G-20 who were arriving in Washington that afternoon.
Does all this really matter, however, if you, in fact, are clearly in minute-to-minute control of your portfolio -- focused on risk management as well as ready to seek opportunity, long or short? Aha, there’s the rub. How many people can truly say they are in control? Not many according to the market.
And that’s the biggest reason for the volatility.
The Toronto Composite index also dived (-296.82 -3.17% to 9055.96), while the Venture Board (-11.98 -1.47% to 801.61) dropped a bit less.
In a total reversal from Thursday, which was a total reversal from Wednesday, there were no sectors remotely close to being winners on Friday. Whereas on Wednesday, the Cara 100 had zero winners and 100 losers, on Thursday that number reversed to 98 winners and just two losers. Friday reverted to just three winners and 97 losers.
One thing is for certain: there is no sector rotation underway; it’s just a matter of hot money panicking out and then panicking in and then panicking out of markets again. As Thursday and Friday showed, most of the panic is evidenced in the final hour. Day traders are licking their chops awaiting the final hour.
The worst of the sectors yesterday were Basic Materials (XLB -6.1%) and Financials (XLF -5.1%). In the industry groups, the Goldminers ($XAU), which had been up +12.7% on Thursday gave back -7.0% on Friday, as did the Airlines ($XAL). The biggest losing industry group was the REITs ($DJR -11.0%). Of course, $DJR was up the previous day by +11.3%.
The equity market has lost all functionality as a facility to properly price value and risk. Those who are using the market as an indicator of value and risk are changing their story by the hour, like clowns change their costumes. Don’t pay it no heed – as a lawyer friend of mine says here in Nassau.
On the day, $GOLD soared +$37.50/oz to close at 742.50.
$WTIC crude oil gave back -$1.46/bbl after the previous day’s gain of +$5.16/bbl. Traders tend to do that. The close was 57.60.
Do you recall my Friday morning DR when I stated, “Interestingly, that while there were zero gainers in the Cara 100 the previous day, yesterday saw 98 winners. Only DELL -2.2% and SBUX -0.2% were down, and the volume on these two was very high.” Yesterday, leading the winners was (drum roll please) DELL +6.0%. The previous day had been a set up. On the Street, it’s called fleecing the lambs.
Volume overall is quite weak.
On Friday morning I stated, “As expected, when money flowed into riskier equities, the bond market suffered. The $USB long bond dropped -0.91% to 117.02.” Even though the bond futures close at 2:30pm ET, and the equity rally didn’t start until 3:00pm, the $USB gained hugely by +1.31% to 118.55, which was in effect HB&B putting capital to work in bonds before they shorted the equities at 3pm.
I think the SEC needs to post human monitors on the trading desks at HB&B because this smells a lot like trading syndicates at work, which speaks to my point (vi) above.
The annualized US T-Bill yield hit a new low of +0.13%, which effectively means that HB&B is saying to you, put all your capital into stocks or bonds, whatever. You see, if you put your money into cash, they cannot steal it. So, today they have you right where they want you. They have sent every so-called 'credible' economist and Talking Head they can muster to make the rounds of Financial Entertainment TV to scare you out of your wits, causing you to buy those T-Bills, thereby driving the yield to zero. Then you don’t know where to go with your $4 trillion in cash (in the aggregate), which is the cash HB&B wants to get their hands on. They figure Paulson has bilked the US Treasury for a couple trillion and now his days are numbered, so why not take the T-Bill yield to zero. Of course it can only stay down there as long as the Fed keeps dropping its key lending Rate. Think about it.
Why do you think their Talking Heads are screaming at their Fed Head to drop the rates? [Italicized because this scam is all in the family.] If the Fed were actually working for the government and the people, they would be raising the rates to stop this nonsense. If you disagree, ask yourself what the zero Central Bank rate ever did to get the economy of Japan back on track? Paul Volcker and Larry Summers understand this stuff and I don’t think they have been bought-and-paid-for by HB&B. There are some good people out there you know.
I should be leaving this stuff for the Week In Review, but, you know, I get started and cannot seem to stop.
On Friday in the forex market, there was a lot of craziness going on. The $USD (+0.04% to 86.72) was stable, but then again the G-20 have all shown up in Washington, where their hosts are trying to put on a good show. Meanwhile the Euro ($XEU -1.26% to 126.04), Cdn Loonie ($CDW -2.11% to 80.83) and Pound ($XBP -0.59% to 147.39) got hammered while liquidity flowed back to Japan ($XJY +0.85% to 103.01).
In Europe at the close, the equity markets were up: French CAC +0.67% to 3291.5; German DAX +1.31% to 4710.2; and UK FTSE +1.53% to 4233.0. During the afternoon there, equity prices did come down between -1.0% and -1.4% following my morning report, but the European bourses were closed well before the 3:00pm ET debacle in NY.
Earlier Friday, the Asia-Pacific markets were stronger: Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+2.72% to 8462.4); Australia (+1.46% to 3726.0); Shanghai (+3.05% to 1986.4); Hong Kong (+2.43% to 13542.7); and Sensex BSE 30 of India (+2.43% to 13542.7) were all higher.
Spot prices at the close Friday (versus 9:03am ET) for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are, respectively: 740.65 (744.00); 214 (217); 838 (844); and 9.50 (9.56), are a bit lower on the day due to a firmer $USD (88.35 close, following 87.365 in the morning), but still higher than Thursday morning’s prices: 714.88, 208, 822, and 9.37 respectively.
DJIA futures closed Friday at 8371. To follow up my Friday morning report: “DJIA futures are at 8693, which indicates a small sell-off at the open, reflecting some profit-taking. The final hour will prove interesting. I believe the buying strength will become apparent.” My crystal ball was two-thirds right: There was an opening sell-off, and after gaining on the day into positive territory, the final 60 minutes exactly did prove interesting. But who would have seen that almost -5% sell-off coming – unless of course you were in the room with Paulson, Dimon, Mack and friends.
In the Community Chat on Friday, I noted that I would be removing Goldman Sachs (GS) from the Cara 100, which I’ll use the WIR tomorrow to announce a replacement. I’ll just say for the record that the response from this community was unanimous – they think the Goldman Sachs business model is broken. Many are hoping that Abbey Joseph Cohen shows up somewhere visible so that they can continue to trade against her (stated) opinions.
Nasty, aren’t I. Don’t shoot the messenger.
Have a good day.
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 12: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

All Tables
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| 6 Month | 0.85 | 0.89 | 0.79 | 0.81 |
| 2 Year | 1.21 | 1.23 | 1.32 | 1.56 |
| 3 Year | 1.53 | 1.61 | 1.12 | 1.34 |
| 5 Year | 2.32 | 2.42 | 2.56 | 2.83 |
| 10 Year | 3.73 | 3.86 | 3.78 | 3.95 |
| 30 Year | 4.22 | 4.36 | 4.26 | 4.20 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 2.55 | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.11 |
| 2yr AAA | 2.18 | 2.24 | 2.27 | 2.78 |
| 2yr A | 2.73 | 2.70 | 3.09 | 3.35 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.11 | 2.97 | 3.14 | 3.59 |
| 5yr AA | 3.14 | 3.12 | 3.18 | 3.66 |
| 5yr A | 3.42 | 3.52 | 3.31 | 4.02 |
| 10yr AAA | 4.42 | 4.53 | 4.00 | 4.99 |
| 10yr AA | 4.03 | 4.19 | 4.08 | 4.51 |
| 10yr A | 4.27 | 4.37 | 4.17 | 5.11 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.05 | 5.17 | 5.30 | 5.66 |
| 20yr AA | 5.17 | 4.99 | 4.94 | 6.15 |
| 20yr A | 5.57 | 4.93 | 5.47 | 6.16 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 5.34 | 5.22 | 5.13 | 5.87 |
| 2yr A | 5.79 | 5.67 | 5.99 | 8.53 |
| 5yr AAA | 5.58 | 5.70 | 6.15 | 5.73 |
| 5yr AA | 6.58 | 6.47 | 6.48 | 7.41 |
| 5yr A | 7.32 | 7.25 | 6.97 | 7.08 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.50 | 5.60 | 5.68 | 5.67 |
| 10yr AA | 6.56 | 6.50 | 6.30 | 7.25 |
| 10yr A | 6.88 | 6.98 | 7.07 | 7.35 |
| 20yr AAA | 6.35 | 6.54 | 6.60 | 5.95 |
| 20yr AA | 6.43 | 6.59 | 6.54 | 5.98 |
| 20yr A | 8.06 | 8.18 | 8.48 | 6.78 |
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 12: US Utilities
Table 13: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 14: International equities perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 15: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 15, 2008 11:15:01 AM | Category: Daily Report








