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November 21, 2008
Daily Report for Fri, Nov 21, 2008
Yesterday was a day of frustration. Right at the stroke of 3:00pm ET, the DJIA sat at 7900, down less than -100 points from the previous close. Then, in one hour, the selling wave, largely programmed selling, kicked in and the DJIA dropped -450 points to a close of 7552. Traders playing the ultra-short 2x and 3x had a glorious hour.
All sectors, all industries and 95 of the Cara 100 were trounced. In fact, about 38 of the high-quality Cara 100 set new 52-week lows in the final hour.
In NY, the worst hit sectors were the Energy (XLE -12.4%), as Crude Oil ($WTIC closed at 49.42, down -$4.68/bbl, and Financials (XLF -10.7%).
The Banks ($BKX –9.6%) were crushed. Among the big banks, the worst hit was Citigroup (C -26.4%).
With the Energy prices falling as Goldman Sachs and others were publishing frightening economic scenarios they say nobody saw coming a month or two ago, which is deceitful on their part, the NatGas ($XNG -15.6%) and Oil Services ($OSX -15.9%) groups were hammered.
At the close, the DJIA (-445.0 -5.56% to 7552.29), S&P 500 (-54.14 -6.71% to 752.44) and NASDAQ Composite (-70.30 -5.07% to 1316.12) all plunged in the final hour. Today is options expiration day, so the close is going to be an interesting one. Should Citi close down another -25% for the third day in a row, the DJIA could see a -1000 point drop today, which would be heaven for the holders of puts.
In Canada, the Toronto Composite dropped -765.8 -9.02% to 7724.76, while the Venture Board was down -38.14 -5.22% to 691.95.
Electronic brokers are experiencing all-time record transactions as traders are dumping stocks. “Sell ‘em if you got ‘em” seems to be the practice of the day.
The extreme traders in the Cara 100 were, for the 5 winners: TGT +3.9%; GG +2.2% (my TOG story (ie, trade of the generation) was widely played by Seeking Alpha and others. I called for a sell on bonds (actually I said later in the day after the long bonds had moved up another 3 points to 125.78, and to buy gold/goldminers (especially GG).
$GOLD rallied +12.70/oz to 748.70, but the other precious metals are rather quiet still.
The Cara 100 losers were led by TCK -23.4%, KB -19.1%, MFC -16.9%, SU -16.5%, ECA-16.2%, and PBR -16.3%. There were many of the Canadian large caps that got hit as the Toronto Composite plunged -9.0% on the day.
The US long bond ($USB) gained +3.02% to 125.78, which yields just 3.699%. Yields plunged yesterday across the board, partly due to more flight from corporates and muni’s. T-Bill’s were yielding almost zero, ie, 0.005%. Cash is cash.
On the forex front, the $USD was up +0.37% to 87.99. The Euro was down -0.19% to 124.64. The Pound -1.45% to 147.39 was crunched as was the Loonie (-2.97% to 77.35). The Yen (+2.18% to 106.58) rallied on the unwinding of the carry trade.
$WTIC (Crude Oil) lost -$4.68/bbl to 49.42!!!
Overnight, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were higher except for the Shanghai Composite (-0.72% to 1969.4). The Japanese Nikkei (+2.70% to 7910.8), Hong Kong (+2.93% to 12659.2), Australia (+1.63% to 3386.9) and India (+5.49% to 8915.2) all traded higher. Banks and beneficiaries of higher commodities were strong.
At 9:31am ET (vs 8:18am ET) today, the French CAC was down -1.00% (-0.98%), German DAX -0.39% (-0.85%), and UK FTSE -0.24% (+0.09%), which is worsening. Banks are continuing to pull equity markets down.
At 9:36am ET (vs 8:18am ET) today, the gold, palladium, platinum, and silver spot prices were: 768.20 (757.10), 181 (182), 810 (798), and 9.41 (9.21). Silver made a jump from 8.85 to 9.28 last evening, then dropped back before moving higher along with gold here.
Yesterday in Seeking Alpha and here in the blog I gave the Trade of the Generation re sell bonds and buy gold/goldminers. Gold was 735.20 at the time, so it’s already up +33.00/oz
Crude Oil is at 50.27 (50.37 about 90 minutes ago).
The DJIA futures are at 7705 (7675 at 8:15am ET). The DJIA is at 7616 (9:43am.
The Citi news today, options expiration and the final two trading hours ought to make for an interesting end of the week session.
Comments & Outlook
Yesterday I opined, “I think we can finally say that this week represented the Trade of the Generation, which is to Sell bonds and Buy Gold/Goldminers.”
A few people took note.
There is no way that by holding, somewhere between now and maturity, a 5-year US Treasury, that yesterday was yielding 1.937% at the close, will be a loser in your portfolio. You will likely make a +100% gain by shorting the bonds, and another +100% gain by going long gold/goldminers.
Have a good day.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 15: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 13: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 14: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 13: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 21, 2008 09:48:01 AM | Category: Daily Report








