This CBC show played Sunday night and concerns the fraud in securities regulation in Canada. I thought it was an excellent piece and echoes everything Bill has been warning about these past couple of years:

http://tinyurl.com/5pprzn

How right Bill! So far they have only treated symptoms, and more of this was announced yesterday. The current problem with collapsing housing won't be solved by preventing foreclosures. Houses were built with this funny money, houses that should never have been built. Band-aid solution just keep the problem going.

Earnings today: oh Deer!

BCE collapsing, oh dear! Those puts would be looking very good today.

"John Lennon said "Give peace a chance" all I'm saying is give Obama a chance."

seadog- agree...we also need to give the various bail out/stimulus packages a chance; it's only been a few weeks...

"Jim Rogers Video interview
45 min on bloomberg from yest, posted today
http://tinyurl.com/5g3wpa

I am still watching but talks about the dollar sinking and commodities rising.

[Bill Cara note:

What decade was he not saying precisely the same thing?]

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 25, 2008 9:35 PM

i love hearing comments like that, because it places all opinions into the correct context...we should all remember that anything we read/hear is just an opinion...because something is in print/on film, or often quoted, or used as a reference, does NOT (necessarily) give it much weight, nor is it even (necessarily) true..

of the (few) notable personalities i've met and gotten to know in person, every one of them (no exceptions) has some version of "i-don't-know-how-the-hell-i-got-to-where-i-am," or "i-can't-believe-people-are-paying-money-to-listen-to- me," which is their way of saying "I don't take myself too seriously, and neither should you," generally a healthy attitude, IMO....

Art Cashin sees a bottom forming. ONe more washout or the bottom is here. Crude seems to be confirming, in contrast to the futures. Either someone knows the report from today in advance, or crude is saying the bottom is forming as well.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
http://www.ino.com/ )
8:30 AM ET. Oct Durable Goods
Total Orders (expected -3%; previous +0.9%)

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods fell twice as much as forecast in October as the credit freeze deepened and sales tumbled.

The 6.2 percent drop in bookings of goods meant to last several years was the biggest in two years and followed a revised 0.2 percent decrease in September, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. A separate report from Commerce showed consumer spending fell by the most since the 2001 recession.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
8:30 AM ET. Nov 22 Jobless Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 530K; previous 542K)
Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (expected -12K; previous +27K)
Continuing Jobless Claims (previous 4012000)
Continuing Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +109K)

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first- time claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, while a less volatile average rose to the highest in almost 26 years, signaling jobs remain scarce as the economy weakens.

Initial jobless claims declined by 14,000 to 529,000 in the week that ended Nov. 22, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 518,000, the highest since January 1983, from 507,000.

The Moon Maiden called me late last night, said she's sorry, said she loves me, said she's coming back soon.

I wonder how many in the community here think there's credibility to the notion (which I've read from several sources but none of them 'mainstream') that gold and silver are being held down (manipulated) in the paper market to create the illusion of a lack of interest by the larger players...The degree of risk involved in such a thing makes me dubious, but it does seem odd that gold and miners are down so much off the years' highs after so much new money creation.

Bloomberg: Meredith Whitney on Citibank

Tarp 3.0

Capital ratios will fail

http://tinyurl.com/6dcevf

FOZ,

I believe the lack of interest in gold by the "larger players" is, for the most part, genuine. Their only collective interest as an organization involves manipulating the fiat currency which, truth be told, has facilitated far wider disparities in the equality of wealth than "old gold" could have ever accomplished. Now are these same folks stashing bullion under their beds next to the Glock and behind the cans of baked beans? That I do not know. Some, probably. But officially gold "must" remain an artifact, a curiosity, a marginal player. For it's mere presence is a reminder of the nature of their fiat and there's far too little of the stuff to ever actually supplant a modern nation-state's currency. So I suppose in a way the answer is yes:)

BCE INC.... DEAL IN TROUBLE

SHARES CLOSED $38 CDN

BID $23.7 CDN......ASK $ 23.7

2nd
about Jim Rogers
Oil is going to be 150 0r 200
Oil is going to be 20
Gold is going to be 2000
Dow will be at 6000
Or $USD will rally more
Expert like Jim Roger/CNBC / and many other are giving these opinion.
And they expect if they give many opinions, one will come true. So, they can go on TV again and
Declare he was right?

just saw the new james bond movie: "Quantum of Solaice" last night.

not very good compared to previous bond flicks but i like the concept of an organization to which intelligence organizations are aware only of their possibility of exiting but nothing more.

i liken such groups to those who seek to circumvent the rules and hold gold/silver in the wake of competitive global devaluation of currency.

no popular vote is required to devalue the money supply, and FOREX matters are presented in such convulted terms to the public the concept of intrinsic value of one's currency is beyond most people to even care. just make sure you say "job creation", "stimulus package" and "programs" and people will nod their heads with approval.

for shame.
for gold.

Bill,

Any chance you can publish your suggestions above on http://change.gov/page/s/economy

Maybe they will ignore. Maybe something miraculous could happen?

Regard: Bloomberg: Meredith Whitney on Citibank

Sounds like she knows her stuff...sounds like financials are in deep crap for a while

MONTREAL — The world's largest leveraged corporate buyout is in deep trouble.

BCE Inc.said Wednesday a KPMG analysis indicates it cannot meet solvency tests defined in the agreement for Canada's biggest telecommunications company to be taken over by an investor group led by the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan.

BCE said it disagrees but "should KPMG be unable to deliver a favourable opinion on Dec. 11, 2008... the transaction is unlikely to proceed."

BCE said Wednesday the accounting firm says that "based on current market conditions, its analysis to date and the amount of indebtedness involved," it does not expect to provide a positive solvency opinion by the scheduled effective date of the $52-billion privatization.

The solvency opinion is a condition to the closing of the transaction.

KPMG indicated BCE meets solvency tests under its current capital structure -- but would not after being weighted down with the massive debt involved in the proposed takeover.

George Cope, chief executive officer of BCE and its Bell Canada operating subsidiary, said the company is "disappointed with KPMG's preliminary view of post-transaction solvency, which is based on numerous assumptions and methodologies that we are currently reviewing."

BCE chief financial officer Siim Vanaselja said the company "disagrees that the addition of the LBO (leveraged buyout) debt would result in BCE not meeting the technical solvency definition."

BCE's statement added that the company "continues to work with KPMG and the purchaser to seek to satisfy all closing conditions."

Said Cope: "BCE today enjoys solid investment-grade credit ratings, has $2.8 billion of cash on hand, a low level of mid-term debt maturities, and continues to deliver solid operating results."

In pre-market trading, U.S.-listed shares of BCE plunged US$12.28, or 39.3 per cent, to $19. The stock has ranged from $25 to $40.44 over the past year.

BCE shares had received some support this week after the U.S. government agreed to bail out Citigroup, the biggest lender behind the deal.

Citigroup is directly on the hook for $13 billion of the $35 billion in loans backing the deal, which is set to close Dec. 11. Royal Bank of Scotland, Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) and Deutsche Bank are providing the rest.

Hey...Bill;

Do you really think Ben and Paul are part of your official lurking blog group????.......;=)

Cheers from Snowy Barrie ........DB

rlogan1301 re: Whitney

IMO, yes she does. Whitney was speaking of some of these issues months ago. Her "read" on financials has been right on, even while Paulson was claiming things like "it's contained" and something like "the worse is behind us".

No one is right all of the time. But when Whitney speaks, I listen.

About Jim Rogers,

The argument by Rogers is one I happen to agree with right now (even if he makes it all the time). There are unknown unkowns (quoting Rumsfeld) though.

What if peak credit occurred and it does not matter how much money is pumped by central bankers? Consumers can no longer take on the extra credit which leads to credit deflation and overall credit contraction regardless of the increase in money supply? Remember, not only the overall money is important, the velocity of money is important. In this scenario, the government is complicit in trying to inflate but without results. Precious metals and real assets should hold value (from threatened inflation) or increase (from government overstepping promises and rapidly increasing money supply).

What if the printing presses do work and credit begins flowing again (how this could happen, would be beyond me) - then precious metals and real assets will have the mother of all rallies.

Either way - having some assets not denominated in a fiat currency seems prudent for the foreseeable future.

Seamus: what is your overall take on what she was saying? are the financials primed for another leg down? or is that already priced in?

Bill,

Everything you propose in today's commentary is reasonable and sensible. But then, you added —

"Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke have done none of the above. They are, in my view, part of the problem, and must be replaced as soon as possible."

With the people Obama has chosen so far, it looks as though even if Paulson and Bernanke go, the replacements are still being drawn primarily from the same barrel of bad apples. (I think Obama is savvy enough to slip in Volcker and Buffett as candy to make the other apples taste better.)

Until this past year I have always been one to disregard conspiracy theories, but the present activity is so blatant I can no longer do that. I am unwilling to cut anyone in high places any slack and cannot place my trust in any level of the U.S. government.

Vinod,

"about Jim Rogers
And they expect if they give many opinions, one will come true. So, they can go on TV again and
Declare he was right"

2nd
The worst is that these "experts" think we don't notice all the contrary advice (guess because of Humoungous Ego)

New 2x Short & Long ETFs from Proshares:

Short: yen (YCS), euro (EUO), commodities (CMD), crude oil (SCO)
Long: yen (YCL), euro (ULE), commodities (UCD) crude oil (UCO)

Apologies if my posting of the jim rogers video is causing a stir. I recognize he says the same thing everytime i watch or read something he says.

vinod,

There is an old expression, "If you must quote, quote often."

This is what newsletter writers fall back on in order to always have been "right."

However, I have read two of Jimmy Rogers books and he tripled his money in three years after creating his own commodities fund.

This guy was able to retire as a very wealthy 35-year-old. His own money — not inherited wealth.

Like most people who we know through the media, his methods and opinions get distorted before they reach us.

There was a commodity bubble, but with all currencies nothing but paper — I believe tangible things — food, oil, metals, will all go back up to some much higher level from here.

Not sure when will be the best buy level, so I have already begun to nibble.

TBT: Adding @ new low.

rlogan1301

IMO, big banks she mentioned are going nowhere fast. Like Bill stated in his comments above, "it can unwind over say ten years instead of one or two." Doesn't mean they can't be day traded, but there's other opportunities.

BTW, heard on the radio this a.m., that two City Councilman from NYC want to rename the new stadium where the Mets and Jets will play in the near future. They want to call it "Taxpayer Field." Sounds good to me! C has paid 400 million for naming rights over 20 years and plans to call it "Citibank" Field, stadium, hwtever.

Rogers ran Soros' hedge fund, the guy is no dummy.
He always says the same thing because it is going to be right. I've have yet to see him take the other side. Even Bill acknowledges what is happening to fiat money supply will affect certain commodities and almost all currencies. Rogers claims to not know how to time markets, that is the difference in my estimation.

[Bill Cara note:

Rogers made his name in the inflation booming 1970s when he touted commodities. During the disinflationary 80s and 90s he touted commodities and was wrong. Not being invited on the Financial Entertainment TV shows he decided to tour the world on a motorcycle and write a book on it. He seems to need all eyes on him. Now for the past six or seven years, the commodity markets are booming, and he is (like a broken clock twice a day) right again and enjoying his days on Financial Entertainment TV. Tell me; what trade did he put you into and did you make any money? Isn't this just about entertainment? Truly? ]

Grym
Am in total agreement with you have read all three of Rogers books and the current s/t trend does not negate the long term trend. Managing within a cycle, commodity or otherwise is where the individual is responsible. My take is Jim Rogers hasn't an axe to grind but is a smart guy who sees the manipulation around him and takes the opposite side.

Solar stocks rally on higher oil. SOL up 15%.
Disclosure: long SOL

Craig

like the tbt trade...i am buying dec 100 puts of the TLT...it is just crazy to see what tlt is doing.

Feeling pretty good about the FLR I bought at 31 last week. Getting some confidence back...

Fitch Ratings on Wednesday downgraded Toyota's long-term foreign and local debt ratings to AA from AAA, with a negative outlook, saying the company needed to review its global investments, product mix and speed of expansion to address the challenges it faces. source: Globe and Mail

Maybe there is more to GM's, Ford's and Chrysler's problems than management etc. Does Toyoto qualify for bailouts?... no, not the foreign car auto companies as they make autos everybody wants and they have excellent management.

Some of you will have another chance to get "Detroit" tomorrow as the Lions will be TV.

Bill-

Seems like there's been a lot of articles on other sites discussing the possibilities of a default on the COMEX for the December contracts. Apart from an obvious moonshot wrt the prices of silver/gold, why isn't the market already discounting this with a move in advance?

Russell 2K is outperforming DJIA,NAZ,S&P for a second day. We are seeing at least some short term rotation into riskier sectors over the last couple days it looks like. Utility stocks underperforming today (they have been strongly outperforming the major indices since October 10th) XLU is -3% this morning. So, from a rotational perspective, there is a willingness to move into riskier assets at the moment.

Last week we undoubtedly saw a lot of loss taking and forced selling. Unless you held off all week and bought right before the last hour of trading Friday or were willing to buy the gap up on Monday, it has been very difficult to participate in the current rally.

I am thinking that the Thanksgiving US market closure will give the big players a chance to move global markets strongly either up or down. Right now I tend to think an up move would leave a lot of people on the sidelines already having missed a 15-20% rally.

ALOHA !!

Its what you get when you have a "Moonshot"!!!

Of Past Thanksgivings on the blog:

"Golfer--Yep, now and again I post recipes. The sweet potato marscapone is a Frankenstein recipe--meaning I cobbled together more than one recipe. I'm not sure how the final product would taste, BUT as I was putting together the filling last night I elected to put some cayenne pepper in it. Yep--to give it a a little kick!

Here's our menu (I'm from VA, so that will explain a few things--but no grits on the menu!):
Turkey (brined at home)
Ham
Brussels Sprouts and Carmelized Onion Hash
Turnip greens/Collards
Potato and Turnip Gratin
Scalloped Oysters
Tart Cranberry Sauce
Sausage and Cornbread dressing (I even make the cornbread for it.
Plus the two pies I mentioned.

My greatest love is to feed people in my home.

Posted by: Leisa at November 22, 2007 2:36 PM

Leisa, You will be happy to find out that, according to Martha Stewart, "Brining a turkey" is the IN thing this year.

Are you always ahead of the game?

Have a good Thanksgiving.

LOL! Now Bill, You know better. I don't take TV tips.
I'm a Caraista. Although just a water carrying junior wizard-mouse in your castle, TV talk has no effect on me.

re COMEX default:

i take my que from the litany of newsletter writers who claim monthly a new conspiracy to explain how gold will soon explode higher.

when the notion of a COMEX default began to gain traction among many writers it piqued my interest in the validity of the theory and i explored it further, this is what i found:

1. OI is falling for gold's december delivery

2. no formal statement from the NYMEX/COMEX has been issued to suggest a default.

3. no actual sources have been credited with revealing the COMEX default possibility, only circular backslapping by newsletter writers quoting other newsletter writers who in turn quote eachother, creating a mirage of "sources" that back up their claims.

4. the POG while enjoying a nice jump from the low $700's is still over $100 below its high of just a few months ago. suggesting the recent rise is due to a potential default ignores the reason for the collapse. new highs above $920 or so may be the proof needed to lend credibility to this theory.

5. citing prices on EBAY for gold is a fools game, prices on ebay dont reflect that actual market for gold which EBay is but a fraction of. you can buy collectable t-shirts that matt damon sweated on during the filming of Bourne Identity for $500. it doesnt mean you go long cotton.

6. shortages at coin dealerships is tricky. it takes industrial production to make coins, so during an upsurge in demand its understandable they would be short. it takes time before new ones can be minted. but other areas enjoy surpluses in coins.

regardless, the coin market represents a fraction of total bullion purchases compared to the COMEX and other global exchanges. you dont guestimate the weather in Canada just by looking out your own window, theres an entire landscape out there you can see from a few square feet of vantage.

7. the price of mining shares would naturally rise compared to gold in teh event the largest bullion broker may go bust non? people would rush to gold in other forms but the miners are only just now making a small run from severely beaten down levels. and they are rising along w/ the market. tough to prove the rise is due to money running away from paper gold into mining equities.

8. 28 november is d-day for gold. i suspect it will pass w/ little fanfare and this theory of default will simply move to the january and march contracts while gold does its thing and pundits continue their baseless rants.

9. none of the people claiming a COMEX default theory forsaw the gold collapse in october, whats to say they have any credibility reamining?

10. i still like gold, but over a longer term and for reasons unrelated to baseless theories supported only by the sheer weight of rumour, repeated ad-nauesum.

good luck.

bought FAZ at 70.5 only for a trade.

dfinvest,

I think the odds on a Dec default on gold are similar to Nov were, except the shorts have already seen what happens if a bunch of them try to hit the exits at one time, which IMO, caused the recent jump in gold. For Dec, I think the naked shorts will have less inclination to put or keep themselves at risk as the expiration date nears, and combining that with reduced supply of metal coming onto the market from miners and central banks, it would lead me to expect the price to rise further by end of Dec, assuming investment demand doesn't fall off.

Has anyone on the board ever bought/sold rhodium? Down from $10,000 to $850 in less than a year. Could it be worth putting an ounce or 2 in the safe deposit box for a decade? But, when prices rise in the future is it possible to sell it? TIA

Bill - what you say above makes perfect sense in terms of CDO's, however, when a homeowner cannot make good on his mortgage payment, I classify that a problem, as opposed to a symptom. Cancer is not a symptom, as well as it is not a cause? Cancer is a disease that causes problems. The CDO reminds me of a cancer. Aren't pyramid schemes illegal?

http://www.answers.com/topic/pyramid-scheme

TB-

Based on the committment of traders report the open short interest has dropped dramatically which may explain some of the move north. Just read Jim Willie's piece and he thinks the russians are behind the coming collapse at the comex....makes me wonder.

Billy - You shouldn't have much problem selling your PM's, as there are many dealers throughout society. In any case, you should consider the spread, as you're not going to get more than spot on the day you sell.

dfinvest,

jim willie is enjoyable to read but has been consistantly wrong for a loooong time.

he claims the "asians" and "russians" are doing all sorts of things which have never ever been proven true.

i read his articles because he is a talented writer, but a poor prognositcator. not that i expect him to predict the future but he puts his foot in his mouth with bad calls constantly, you woulhd have lost a lot of money if you took his advice the past year or so.

Bill, thanks for the heads up last week on the GG trade. I've been in and out twice and enjoyed nice gains. I don't have the patience or insight to stay in very long.....learning slowly...

[Bill Cara note:

Question:

May I ask for participation in our CTAB website? This is the professional site that will face our clients and the public. We want to present some comments from people who have benefited from my daily reports and commentary and I’d like those comments to be as current as possible. If you would like to contribute, send your comments to JackSenett@CaraTrading.com. Just briefly describe how you benefitted from my reports, commentary, or a CTAB report or any other aspect you may feel is appropriate, and whether we can use your name with your comment. Thanks very much.]

CP - for gold, silver, platinum, palladium I agree, but I am not sure that most PM dealers have enough bid/ask action to make dealing in rhodium worth there while? When rhodium was $10,000 would I have actually been able to sell it anywhere close to that?

Zinc miners moving up today sharply

This morning Lundin Mining Corporation is up 20% and TCK has moved up 17% the percents are almost larger then the money amounts in the stocks.

Goodmorning all. Thanks to all who post. In case you missed it, there IS a "Buy Bill a Beer button!" Its at the end of his daily commentary today. And while its not quite the same as being able to contribute to him in a convivial way, it is something important to Bill. It is in bold letters asking for current comments how we have benefited from his work here. Man, I have to count the ways. So let us give a well deserved thank you to our host and help him in his efforts building CTAB.
Peace from North Puget Sound

I actually had the pleasure of dining with Jim Rogers & a few others as he toured around Australia in his yellow 4wd Merc. Met him as he came through Darwin. He was quite taken with the place and wanted to buy property there, I think you can still find his photo's of the occasion online. Nice picture of my place overlooking the water. He says himself that he's not much of a trader, ain't good at timing it. But he does give, in my opinion, a good, coherent broad, framework about markets & economies that seem to be free institutional or government bias.We need more of that. As for trading and specific knowledge about market and their interrelationships I come here. And Bill, as for your TOG trade, I'm making out like a bandit. Thank You.

BillySundance - It all depends! Contact your local dealers and ask them, or sell back to whomever you bought. This includes scrap metal dealers. I've never bought/sold rhodium, but I've bought/sold quite a bit of aluminum through scrap dealers... Platinum is used for high-end jewelry, silver hobbyists buy sheet and wire from jewelers, etc.

If my local scrapyard buys rhodium, yours might too? I haven't checked...

Consider the uses for your PM, and how changing economic conditions might affect the value over time. Will demand/supply increase or decrease?

I like it....a lot...that Obama has tapped Volcker to head Economic Recovery Advisory Board...between that and having Buffett on the line a bunch I think he'll have enough opinions to make the right ones...

[Bill Cara note:

Life sure takes some strange turns. I sliced up an orange and walked to the beach a few steps away to take a lunch break. Right in front of me, there was a sweeper freshening up the sand, and then out strolls a young couple in wedding costume but bare feet. Next the music starts and out steps a minister and an entourage of photographer, videographer and Sandals resort manager. A wedding starts, and I am the only guest. Sunny day, waves lapping in the background, church music from a music player, and a beaming couple exchanging vows… just 30 feet away. I listen to the preacher talk about life. The couple exchanges rings and kiss. Twelve noon. I have just returned from the wedding. Lovely affair, but I was the only guest. ]

RE: Shorting Bonds (including TBT, TLT puts, etc.)

I am a little concerned that the bond market collapse could be postponed almost indefinitely as treasuries are propped up with newly printed money. What kind of timelines are people looking at?

This is not the first article that has suggested the treasuries will be supported until the end of the financial system...

http://tinyurl.com/6bzlx3

"
The common belief is that when China and other countries such as Japan and the oil-producing nations begin to unload their US Treasuries, extremely high interest rates will ensue. This will happen eventually, but it will be after the large majority of damage has already been done, and it will be trivial when the bond market actually does collapse. Let me tell you why.

The Federal Reserve will buy every stinking, worthless US Treasury bill that the US government wants it to. The last thing that will happen when the Day of Reckoning comes is a collapse in the bond market. The reason for postponing this kind of financial Armageddon is because when the bond market collapses, the simpletons that are left unaware of our current predicament will finally be onboard and US assets from equities to bonds will be shunned for a very long time to come. I guess you could compare it to a bad case of denial.

The term used to define the Federal Reserve buying government bonds is "monetization". It will monetize America's debt in the worst possible way, buying Treasury bonds with newly-minted cash. This will result in the collapse of the US financial system and the worst hyperinflation we have ever seen in the United States of America.
"

I think actual monetization would result in the dramatic decline of the dollar, a spike in commodities priced in dollars, and the likely abandonment of the dollar as the reserve currency. So the FED has a choice - watch the buck get hit, commodities priced in dollars spike, or watch the bond rates soar.

Teck.b....moving up .81 cents cdn

If any one is looking for a cycle bottom stock that was pounded I picked up Cohen & Steers Quality Incm Rlty Fd Inc RQI:NYSE. In the past I had it in my Roth for much more than what it is going for today. Cohen & Steers (NYSE: CNS) has said that its closed-end funds do not anticipate making capital gain distributions to their common shareholders in 2008. It has dropped the monthly pay out from 20 cents to 15 cents. It's moving up and pays each month. If it holds the dividend it a 55% yield.

Good Morning, all.

Does anyone here watch Russell Metals (TSE:RUS)? Seems solid with good div. yield and has been hit hard recently, especially after divs. are paid. It hit a 52 week low in the past couple of days, but seems to have good cashflow and cash on hand.

Can anyone add/subtract to the bullish appearance?
Thanks!

P.S. This is my first post here and glad to have found such a civil site. I'll do my best to
keep my discourse relevant.

Bill: After only about six weeks of becoming aware of this site, it has become my daily/all day haunt. I've read many, many similar sites, but beyond your proven market insight, what makes you different is your thoughtfulness. There's poetry in you, Bill, and even though I've never met you, I can tell what kind of person you are. I haven't been able to get *that* information from any other market blogger. It's why I fully understand why you've been successful, without knowing a lick about your historical gains.

Looking forward to the new site.

If market moves more in last hour than first hour, smart money is buying.
Any comment about this?

NYUgrad: looks like our discussion about SLW yesterday was finally noticed by some hedge funds, who decided to stop selling SLW and start buying it. :) Go SLW!

Everyday I learn something new from this site. Its almost like a news aggregator of relevant stock market news for me :) And also occasionally there is some philosophy, poetry etc

jrinbc,

Look at page 11 of the investor presentation on RUS's website. Note that roughly 3/4 of their sales are from tube, plate and structural steels. These are used in commercial construction, industrial and energy infrastructure.

Form an opinion about those industries and you'll have an idea of RUS's dividend and share price safety.

Billy Sundance.. I am curious, what is your calling and why you would want rhodium. There are some interesting missile guidance applications for the metal, no?

Bill
Just to let you know
Whenever I go to trading room, we talk about your Daily report/WIR and something that was posted by other on that day.
They do not post, but they do enjoy reading your blog, talking about it. It gives them quite different perspective.
About recent appoint by Obama it makes sense to have fox guarding the hen house?
I think present Eisenhower did it by naming stock manipulator Joe Kennedy as head of SEC
So, he knew where to look

Vinod,

It seems to me that some folks are getting positioned in a lot of stocks and that there is bullishness today that belies the averages. I think we're all expecting a pretty good bounce somewhere in here in the next week or so.

Hi,

I am wondering what exactly it means when a stock is listed as being in the accumulation zone in the Cara 100. Is that an early buy signal and the Buy Alert is much stronger?

I know that I found this once, but haven't found it again. There was an alphabetized list of the CARA 100 as well as one that was sorted by category. Can anyone point me to where this is on the website?

Thanks

Russel Metals...
(TSX:RUS)
Cdn $0.45 per share dividend on its common shares, payable on December 15, 2008 to
shareholders of record at the close of business on November 24, 2008.

Nov.19/08....Investment Reporter

Russel Metals Inc. (TSX-RUS, $20.24) earned record profits in the third quarter. It earned much more in the first nine months of 2008. The company's business may face a slowdown. But it remains a buy for long-term gains and high income.

In the first nine months, Russel earned $200 million, or $3.15 a share. This is up sharply from $85.9 million, or $1.36 a share, a year earlier. All three segments earned more: metals service centers, energy tubular products and steel distributors.

In the first nine months, Russel's revenue jumped 28.7 per cent, to $2.5 billion. Its costs grew by a lower 21.2 per cent. Only the net interest cost rose faster than revenue. But this is a tiny cost, given the firm's low debt.

Russel's cash flow confirmed its higher profit. In the first nine months, cash flow more than doubled to $227 million. This greatly exceeded net capital spending of $14 million and dividend payments of $88.5 million. The company used $46 million of extra cash flow to buy its own shares.

Russel is optimistic despite the downturn. President and chief executive officer Bud Siegel says, "I strongly believe that Russel Metals has the flexibility, expertise and a strong balance sheet that will enable us to react to the changing conditions as well as any company in our sector". Also, an acquisition bodes well.

The plunge in the price of oil and gas could hurt demand for energy tubular products, especially in Alberta's oil sands. Then again, demand by conventional producers in the U.S. and Canada should hold up better.

Russel's outlook is favorable. It should keep rewarding its shareholders. The company has raised its dividend every year since 2002. While we don't expect it to do so in 2009, the dividend of $1.80 a share yields 8.3 per cent. That's an attractive return while you wait for long-term gains. Russel Metals remains a buy.

No position.

"Terorists" have attacked India. There is little doubt that this will ratchet up the nuclear heat between India and Pakistan, arch enemies and both armed to the teeth by us, in our infinite wisdom. Instead of both India and Pakistan having nukes, wouldn't it make more sense if neither did?

Anyway, this is the way the world is destined to end, in a blood feud culminating in a cataclysmic blast between two tribes of surprisingly similar Quickie-Mart owners.

Looks like some hedge funds have also read my yesterday's comments about TCK! Do I jump in now? Or should I wait for a few more days to make sure that the long-term chart has reversed?

I meant that to be humorous, not offensive, ye of little funnybone.

Sending out a quick Holiday Post

I appreciate reading through this blog with you all. It's been quite honestly an amazing year and a half.

I know we are in transitions and we will shift gears towards our personal visions as the country shift gears.

But that's why I am posting this:

It's about that sharing, on this holiday of sharing, I wanted to reach out to each of you to give my thanks.

While we might be small, almost seemingly insignificant in terms of the larger problems...

We are making a huge difference in .. just sharing. While this focus of topic blog centers upon trading it isn't about money or huge shifts of government policy.. it literally just boils down to us, how we each reach out to connect and live here and now: to share information.

How we then use that information does connect to money or other aspects of our life.. but beneath that all, this is about sharing.

I wanted to share my thanks because information here has touched my life and helped make a difference in how I reach out.

I most sincerely give you each a bow in thanks

Your online friend

Casey

Trading My Chips; Tryingtogetby;

I greatly appreciate the input. I have reviewed the shareholder info recently, but I will go back and review the section that you have outlined to help colour in my opinions. No position yet and still trying to (learn to) look at the big picture. Stock is trading in the $16.50 Cdn. range this morning. Thanks again!

Anyone buying BCE inc???????

LOL! No worries Shark, it was funny. :>)

Calvino-

I am just looking into the feasibility of rhodium.

Here is a historical price chart:
http://tinyurl.com/5zwcxo

My thinking is that part of the side-effect of the financial crisis is in the longer term to deprive needed industries of capital and cause long-term under development of resources due to lack of mining. While the price swing is short-term, the effects will prevent new sources of rhodium from being developed.

I can not find any information that there has been a new revelating technologies that have render rhodium useless. I see no reason that rhodium value would go to zero. So, my thinking is that at $850/ounce, it would be a good call on future hyperinflation.........

I am just at beginning of researching but that is my interest so far. Lots to learn.

Breaking news: Bombay( India ) multiple attacks in the business district.

Anybody here dabbled with those new direxion 3x ETFs? They look like black diamond trails to me...

I believe Rhodium is used extensively in the aerospace industry, specifically in high temperature applications such as turbine blade manfacture.

Sharkie- "Anyway, this is the way the world is destined to end, in a blood feud culminating in a cataclysmic blast between two tribes of surprisingly similar Quickie-Mart owners."

American Revolution & British crown - were the people of different stock?, no.... Germany & Britain (in 2 world wars) - were people of different stock - no....

At the end of the day its all about power (political, economic & whatever). This game is played by countries, HB&B etc.

Along those lines, look at the English and the Irish...The Jews and the Arabs. We seem to hate most those who are most like us. What's next, the Norwegians and the Swedes?

Shark-

I have noticed a strange and adamant anti-French sentiment in the U.S. Maybe this unfounded aggression really a psychological manifestation of our fear of European style socialism.......?

Sharkie - I dont think there is as much hatred in the common public, they are constantly fed lies & hatred by the few in power. Its said that no matter who comes to power in pakistan, a handful of rich families benefit/control the economy. They control both the political machinery & the economic machinery....

Up front, I am an avowed gold bug. So I know I will buy it again. Question is do I sell GG AUY and SLW and take some profit off table? AUY and SLW downgraded today by those rearward looking guys (anal ysts). Total portfolio still in the red but gg and auy are in the money.
Is the terrorist news reason enough to keep a profitable stock over the weekend?
Looking for comments.
TIA

Shark / Shiva:

Power... first you must ask what is power:

Power represents the ability to define ourselves...

So Shark that ties directly to your observation people tend to attack those who are most like themselves...

This is becuase if an entity is not happy with their own personal definition, they then lash out at any who remind them of themselves... Since they see their own definition reflected...

so goes human nature

Shiva: every day the world ends and every next day it begins.. to those who only live to the past... then their world does truly end... and those larger predictions of end of the world are true to those souls who cannot embrace the newness of the next day...

It's not about destiny, it's simply a personal choice on how to embrace the day.

anyways I digress from prime topics and meander

peace all!

FXP 52 week low

Billy - and a vice versa hatred of US in France/Europe.... They think all americans are stupid people. There is a lot that this country has brought to the world plate....

Many Americans speak of rude treatment in France, but I have not experienced this - true enough, they like you much more if you speak the French language, but that's true practically any place. Personally I think its a lovely country. Good food, too...

Shiva - very true.

Many times in my travels over the last few years I have met foreigners from all over the world that are surprised to find that not all Americans are gun-toting zealots who love George Bush and yearn for military aggression. Likewise the most adamantly hateful Americans are those who have never even met anyone from France (name a country)......

I was at an outdoor festival-style concert in Rome about 4 years ago when a group from San Francisco called Spearhead played a show. Knowing a little Italian, the frontman of the group (in Italian) said something along the lines of "Just as Silvio Berlusconi does not represent the people of Italy, George Bush does not represent America". The mostly Italian crowd cheered at the top of their lungs! - an "aha" moment for both the Italians and the Americans in the crowd.

Caraistas, Just because BCE has seen a 35% plunge in value this morning bringing its price back to the summer of '06 - please don't get to thinking it is an opportunity to buy on the dip. This company has serious problems. The long distance revenue model is collapsing ( competition ); falling print & TV ad revenue ( competition due to internet and insufferable programming ); dealer suits for hundreds of millions of dollars ( retail bullying practices ) the recent internet "throttling" case ( more bullying tactics exposed ). Even their vaunted dividend has been suspended since last summer. So what's to like at $25 CDN? In the near term, holders should be prepared to be waterboarded by Ma Bell, IMO.

Sold off DB, SU, AA, C, and CHK purchased at last Thursday's lows and almost made up for the losses I took in NVLS and AKAM from late Sept.

I think I need a break from the market. Also don't believe the bears are all thru yet - so I hope to buy back into some of these later. For now, taking a little profit off the table...

David,

Let's hope this is the start of a new trend up for our slw.

I find some comfort that CTAB is even doing a research report on SLW in Jan. From my readings on this blog, i dont find Bill to be someone to waste time.

Happy turkey day everyone.

Was Bill's request to participate on CTAB directed specfically at dbear? or anyone?

"Question:
May I ask for participation in our CTAB website?"

David,

How do you know its hedge funds buying slw?

vinod- re FXP

from a 52-wk high to a 52-wk in one month? with Shanghai and HK near the 52-wk lows, it's incredible....that's what makes trading the ultras a completely different ball game, IMO..

NYUgrad.... it was to all of us. see my post at 11.33am or reread Bills daily post to the end of his comments before the charts start

NYUgrad,

Nope it was directed at everyone, it was just a reprint from the bottom of todays Daily Report.

Hopefully on the new site Bill will have a way to make comments other than editing an existing posted comment.

Quasi

Billy - I once met an american researcher from Alaska (actually I gave him a ride in my car in Mt Cook in NZ). This guy had 2 Phds and was helping out the local authorities in doing some research about the rock formation there (living on his savings....). There are good people (most of them I would say) in every country, race, color & religion. Thanks to those for making this world a sane place to live :)

Todays rally has gotten going faster than I expected. I guess the smart money strategy was to start buying everything on Friday as people began leaving for vacation only to sell it back to the vacationers when they return?

So maybe we rally through the end of this week and start some pullback action next week when the late-to-the-party buyers decide to buy in?

"David, How do you know its hedge funds buying slw?"

That was just a wild guess. :) Since all the stock declines in the past couple of months were blamed on the hedge fund selling, I figured that a rare upmove in SLW can be due to those guys being off for the Thanksgiving break. :)

On a more serious note, I can image that during such uncertain times, investors would want to pull their money out of the risky assets first, so even the remote chance of SLW not meeting its debt payments may have spooked MANY large holders of SLW. From my point of view, this is a buying opportunity, since I don't think silver will fall below $8/oz for more than 6 months so as to force SLW to take some special steps to raise cash (I think we have seen the bottom at $9/oz already).

Just sold BCE INC....GAIN $ 2.00/SHARE

Casey - its not only attacking those who are most like ourselves.... I think it is human tendency to force one's ideas on another, if they can. Like the spaniards did a cultural revolution for the natives of the americas (somehow they had to impart their values to the natives besides taking the gold). Ah, the world goes on, victor sets the rules & history is written in the victor's favor.....

I tried trading FXP & FXI a couple of times and could not figure out how they moved. Got out of both with small profits. I think I will stick to the US ETFs. Still have some BGU, TNA & IWM

I think the rally (especially in energy) might involve the upcoming OPEC meeting on Nov 28th.

Hello-
I am hoping for a quick "reality check" from some of the more experienced traders here, and hopefully my question will assist others as well. I am currently short two 10yr treasury futures contracts as my first foray into the TOG. I am unsure how to factor the recent fed injections into my trade parameters, as I certainly did not think the contracts would move as high and as fast as they did due to the fed movement. This suggests that I do not fully understand the relationships at play here between all parties, and my instinct is to abandon any trade that I do not understand. This particular trade is currently a moderate looser for me, and I'm trying to find a source that can help me weigh the probability that the current strength is very temporary, or if I should close and reload at a later time. Any members who could share a source they found educational, I would greatly appreciate the opportunity to learn. I also now understand (via Bill's commentary) that there may not be an academic "reason" for the action and that sometimes the "price is the price".

Thanks for the help and enjoy the holiday.
Mike

Mr F William Engdahl has an interesting perspective on the Citi bailout.

Henry "Elmer Fudd" Paulson has really fudded up with his
"make it up as we go" plan for dealing with the credit bubble bust.. On a Thanksgiving note ....... I guess we should be thankful that he only has 55 days left in office.

NEWSFLASH... FBN reporting Raul Castro wants a face to face meeting with Obama. It's certainly time to have a normal relationship with the Cuban people. It could be a mutually beneficial relationship.

Also, up to 80 dead in Mumbai terror attacks ......high profile attacks are expanding across the city.

*****************************************************************Colossal Financial Collapse: The Truth behind the Citigroup Bank "Nationalization"

"The Levy Economics Institute economists state, ‘It is probable that many and perhaps most financial institutions are insolvent today -- with a black hole of negative net worth that would swallow Paulson's entire $700 billion in one gulp.’

That reality is the real reason Paulson was forced to abandon his original ‘crony bailout’ TARP plan and opt to use some of his money to buy equity shares in the nine largest banks.

That scheme as well is ‘dead on arrival’ as the latest Citigroup nationalization scheme underscores. The dilemma Paulson has created with his inept handling of the crisis is simple: If the US Government paid the true value for these nearly worthless assets, the banks would have to write down huge losses, and, as Levy economists put it, ‘announce to the world that they are insolvent.’ On the other hand, if Paulson raised the toxic waste purchase price high enough to protect the banks from losses, $700 billion ‘will buy only a tiny fraction of the 'troubled' assets.’ That is what the latest nationalization of Citigroup is about.

It is only the beginning. The 2009 year will be one of titanic shocks and changes to the global order of a scale perhaps not experienced in the past five centuries. This is why we should speak of the end of the American Century and its Dollar System.

How destructive that process will be to the citizens of the United States who are the prime victims of Paulson’s crony capitalists, as well as to the rest of the world depends now on the urgency and resoluteness with which heads of national Governments in Germany, the EU, China, Russia and the rest of the non-US world react. It is no time for ideological sentimentality and nostalgia of the postwar old order. That collapsed this past September along with Lehman Brothers and the Republican Presidency. Waiting for a ‘miracle’ from an Obama Presidency is no longer an option for the rest of the world."

whole article:

http://tinyurl.com/6e3za8

Best wishes for a good Thanksgiving to all Caraistas.

anyone happen to know market hours for Friday? 930-1?

2nd - NYSE closes at 1pm ET

Just a quick note on my experiences here. I am not much of a technician and respect greatly those that are. The learning has been the best part of the blog - especially Bill's tip on selling options. I never thought of that one!

These experients have been fairly successful, using the advice to work with stocks you don't mind owning for the long haul. I'll add to that, inherent volitility is nice.

I like Apple a lot, and think it is a long term winner. Prior to the big drop last week, I sold a Nov 95 put at 3.9. Naturally when the stock hit 86, I ended up owning some at 95. Not a bad price, IMHO. Then it recovered to 94, and I decided to sell a Dec 95 call, for 6.5.

If the stock gets called, it will have netted 10.25 points. If it does not get called, I'll have a cost basis of 84.75, and can do it all over again.

In this market, there is no point in trying to hit the long ball out of the park - singles will do nicely.

astral - looks like i need to buy some FXP in the next couple of months for downside protection.... that article is brutal

Just noticed the 50 DMA broke below 1000 last Friday - perhaps that is acting as a psychological "all clear" signal right now

...referring to S&P 500

News: Mumbai India Terror Attacks - 5 blasts at Taj Mahal Hotel - 20 hostages taken. Total chaos

At least 80 dead in Mumbai attack according to Reuters
http://tinyurl.com/56k45j

Also a terror alert in NYC. Be careful out there.

"Feds Warn of Terror Plot Against NYC Subways."
http://tinyurl.com/5tac6t

re: Jimmy Rogers

Bill,

After hearing him on TV several times I read Adventure Capitalist and Hot commodities. His distain for government data is what first caught my ear, since I had already come to distrust them, then when he stood alone on a number of CNBC panels on a number of other issues I began to follow commodities.

While I have never actually trade the real goods, I did make some pretty good gains with DBA, DBC and several energy ETFs. I check into his fund last year, but decided I'd rather maintain total control of my own assets.

What makes the most sense to me is the "things" known as commodities have real value (although fluctuating) and seem like a good way to parallel the inflation/deflation yo-yo.

Certainly better than dollars anyway.

I don't see why anyone would go on CNBC if they consistently receive a putdown or ridicule. Jon Hussman and Bill Fleckenstein have said they will not go back due to the insistence that they be positive in their comments. Fleckenstein has appeared recently on Fast Money, but the whole group is made up of mavericks.

if there is a reasonable to decent black friday sale, i think the rally will continue on to next week.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO OUR CARA COMMUNITY FRIENDS

Happy Thanksgiving to all of our American friends!
Enjoy the turkey and be thankful you don't own Pilgrim's Pride.

"I am thinking that the Thanksgiving US market closure will give the big players a chance to move global markets strongly either up or down. Right now I tend to think an up move would leave a lot of people on the sidelines already having missed a 15-20% rally."

Well the market doesn't reward cowards, imho. It's risk vs. reward, and when I see people saying they will only buy the S/P when it has a P/E ratio of 9, that tells me people are trying to justify getting all the reward for no risk. It's simple greed of another nature.

When a go to a 50% off sale at the store, I don't go in and try to haggle the storeowner for another 50% off on top of it.

I don't know if this was the bottom - but we certainly never stick under 850 for very long. And so far those that panicked on the capitulation on October 10th haven't been rewarded for their panic.

Let's see how far the inevitable pullback goes back. A perfect photo finish would bring it back down to 850.

northvan,

I have been doing OK with bond funds and will hold until they fed quits cutting (then buy TBT) and when it starts raising will sell the funds.

WHOSX (all Treasuries) +10% since 10-20-08
LQD + a littel under 3% since 10-20-08
BIV + 4.7% since 10-15-08

A. Gary Shilling is one who says T- bonds are the place to be due to his total belief in deflation. I had just sold all of mine before I read his book, "How to Survive and Thrive in the Coming Deflation."

I see bonds as just another trading vehicle. My luckiest move was a gain of 30%+ in less than 3 months when they discontinued the 30 year a few years ago. I never did quite understand why people reacted violently to the news, but hey, I'd like to see it again.

The Chinese and others dumping bonds: So that means we end up with a bunch of our own worth (far) less IOUs, right? They cash them in for our worth (far) less dollars. It seems more likely to me that they will do what Prince Al-Waleed did and buy U.S. companies.

I understand the meaning of "monetization", but it simply makes no sense to me to just print, print, print and totally destroy the value of the dollar. You might be able to get more for your old Monopoly money if they do that.

------
Shiva,

Two books by Barbara Tuchmann "The Proud Tower," and "The March of Folly," illustrate the futility of governments dealing with everyday problems which are similar to what we see today. The ordinary people, if left alone would get along just fine. The propaganda manipulators and other "experts" always go a bit too far in their quest for gains in money and power.

Any feedback is greatly appreciated. I took into account Bill's advice to look at the bigger picture from my FSLR trade.

Just added some DRYS @ 5.33 on the following thinking.
1) Early stochastic breakout, reflection from downtrend channel from end of September. Breakout of short term down channel.
2) DBC (commodity index) daily and weekly showing positive divergence.

However, SEA (shipping index) is heading up towards lots of resistance.

Stop mentally set just below $4 for next week. I'll hold this as long as possible.

I posted some marked up charts at http://tinyurl.com/5aajkr to clarify my points.

A little before the close, I bought 10 contracts of SLW $2.50 June call options for $1.53 (per option). The triple bottom seems to be in for SLW, and buying call options at the beginning of a long-term uptrend is better than buying stock shares.

Muzie

So far the "inevitable pullback" theory has eventually worked every single time in this bear market. Most of us (myself very much included) have been reluctant to subscribe to the idea for no other reason than the markets were too cheap, inflation, etc. As the bear market has plunged deeper, the "inevitable pullback" theory has become more and more accepted by the majority. Now instead of being skeptical, we are certain that it will occur again.

I am not saying that it will not occur again this. It very well might. But I am also sure that the more certain (the collective) We are of the "inevitable pullback", the less likely it is to reoccur as we expect.

When eventually almost all of us expect the "inevitable pullback" (is that now or not? I don't know), the market will instead devour those who try to act on the feeling of certainty by going short and leave the most skeptical fearful to enter the market.

Grym - Thanks for the suggestion, i will add it to my amazon wishlist. i recently read "Fooled by Randomness". Interesting read about the effect of randomness in life & success etc. I liked his warnings about outlier events completely upsetting the apple cart, maybe our brains dont want to think about the outlier events

Thanks Grym!

[Bill Cara note:

Toronto Maple Leafs bring up tough kid for the Senators game. He's from Freeport Bahamas! Who woulda thunk it. Maybe now I'll get to watch more than just the Sat night Leaf games on TV.
http://slambios.canoe.ca/sportsplus/hockey/player.cgi?3160 ]

My take on SLW as it stands now technically. disclosure, i am still a guppy in the technical arena.

http://i37.tinypic.com/2colkd1.jpg

I am still concerned with volume. from my readings on tiple bottoms on stockcharts.com, it seems slw has only completed steps 1 and 2, of potentiall 5 steps.

If we can gather momentum and rise above 3.70 and 4.60, and hope $4.60 or above will become the new support.

And if i am looking at this right, a break out target would be $6.64 (4.60-2.56+4.60)

Below is stockcharts def. Sorry for the advance technical traders. I know for some of you this is like breathing.

1. Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there should be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the triple bottom, a downtrend or long trading range should be in place. Sometimes there will be a definitive downtrend to reverse. Other times the downtrend will fade away after many months of sideways trading.
2. Three Lows: All three lows should be reasonable equal, well spaced and mark significant turning points. The lows do not have to be exactly equal, but should be reasonably equivalent.
3. Volume: As the triple bottom develops, overall volume levels usually decline. Volume sometimes increases near the lows. After the third low, an expansion of volume on the advance and at the resistance breakout greatly reinforces the soundness of the pattern.
4. Resistance Break: As with many other reversal patterns, the triple bottom is not complete until a resistance breakout. The highest point of the formation, which would be the highest of the intermittent highs, marks resistance.
5.Resistance Turns Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support, and there is sometimes a test of this newfound support level with the first correction. Because the triple bottom is a long-term pattern, the test of newfound support may occur many months later.
6. Price Target: The distance from the resistance breakout to lows can be measured and added to the resistance break for a price target. The longer the pattern develops, the more significant is the ultimate breakout. Triple bottoms that are 6 or more months in duration represent major bottoms and a price target is less likely to be effective.

"What's next, the Norwegians and the Swedes?"

Actually, they already had their feud back in the early part of the last century, culminating in Norwegian independence in 1905.

I am descended proportionately from both, which may explain my frequent inner conflicts.

I request to Mr. Obama to hold a news conference every day until he takes office
It seems market moves

"Uses of Rhodium: Used as a coating to prevent wear on high quality science equipment and with platinum to make thermocouples. Also used in headlight reflectors, telephone relays, fountain pen points and airplane spark plugs."

http://environmentalchemistry.com/yogi/periodic/Rh.html

A byproduct of nickel mining, also used in some catalytic cracking processes.

I see that Kitco's pool spread is quite substantial (ouch!), perhaps because they don't handle large volumes? Some consider rhodium a noble metal, but it doesn't meet true scientific definition.

CP did you find an entry point into the haymaker?

Mack - I'm anticipating a pullback, then might jump on board. I see you made good hay today, congrats! My port gained 9% today... still kinda licking some wounds though as I was way too early on too much stuff.

vinod - If Obama and Bush hold press conference, one behind the other, we can trade the volatility?

I opened a magazine last night and the first spread had an ad for GM's Saturn. There were five autos including a sedan, a sporty convertible, a crossover, an SUV and a van. Beside each one was the gas mileage ranging from 22 to 28 mpg.

This ad is the solution to the auto problem — just produce these five cars and no others.

Remember when they made only five cars? Chevy, Pontiac, Oldsmobile, Buick and Cadillac.

Happy Thanksgiving to you all.

number2son,

I've been telling everyone that if Obama who is half white is the "first black president" then if I were elected i would be the first Swedish president (half Swede/half other mixture).

My very good Norwegian childhood friend, Arne, had the misfortune to live in the midst of a Swede neighborhood were we called him a Swedish hillbilly :-)

David- not sure i understand the rationale for buying calls (that expire in 7 months) when for another buck you could own the stock...

i agree with sundance- increased expectations for a pullback (better yet, with money on it in the form of shorts or puts) is the kind of fuel we need for a serious rally...

n2s- saying you're half Swedish and half Norwegian is like someone from China saying he's half Cantonese and half Mandarin...you'd have to be a native to know the difference ;)

NYUgrad, re TA on SLW

OK let me throw in my 2 cents, with the indicators I normally use on the daily chart.

In my time frames it looks to be forming a double bottom if lower support holds. Divergences look promising and could be setting up nicely. Time will tell.

http://stockcharts.com/snapshots/155686994.png

Problem is its one of those stocks currently being heavily manipulated by every news release, whether its true or just speculation. Unfortunately in times like these SPIN trumps TA and Fundamentals every time.

Just my opinion and subject to change without notice.

Quasi

Streaming video of the drama happening in Bombay India.
http://tinyurl.com/644733
Very sad day indeed.

Bill, sorry, I know this is offf topic but could not resist.

The terrorists are still at large in different buildings.

strong (6.5%) open in Shanghai...

$3 to drive through SF during rush hour?

http://tinyurl.com/6ydq94

Sandy,

Sad indeed. I can't wait for the democratic Indian population, experiencing as they are, a rapid emergence onto the world scene, to finally become fed-up with these Islamo-Fascists in their midst. I can't help but believe that India is the key to this whole region. I remember becoming quite elated when, after some horrible terrorist attack a few years back, the Indian Army offered their assistance to Pakistan to stamp out some nests of chaos in the border regions of Afghanistan. Sadly Pakistan rejected this offer of coordination. What a great force for stability and prosperity these two powerhouses could be if only they could set aside some differences.

Unrest in China as economic conditions worsen...

The People's Bank of China cut interest rates by more than 1pc point as the economy crumbles and millions of jobs are predicted to go ahead of Christmas.

Today, around 500 protesters rioted at the Kai Da toy factory in Dongguan in the Pearl River delta, flipping over a police car and trashing computers in a dispute over payoffs to 80 fired workers. Tens of thousands of factories across the region have already shut their gates.

Yin Weimin, China's Social Security minister, has revealed that employment is the Communist Party's number one concern in the downturn and said the "situation is critical". Unemployment is expected to rise from 4pc to 4.5pc by the end of the year and anecdotal reports have suggested that 3m people have already been fired in the industrial province of Zhejiang alone.

Two major provinces, Shandong and Hubei, have already responded by banning companies from firing staff without permission from the government.

http://tinyurl.com/68fjya

China's rate cut bigger than Indian's terror at Thursday's morning bell with the Red Chips up +4.24 HSCEI 7227.87 +293.76 in first moments and the Hang Seng Index up + 2.54 HSI 13709.6 +340.15. Best of all things to the brave souls caught up in the mess over there.

2nd_ave, David, RE SLW options

Yes 2nd that kind of interested me also. My option trading is still on the learning curve, I'm often right just not enough time, so now when buying calls I tend to buy more time, ie leaps, little more expensive but gives me time to be right, I can't sit at the screen and day trade em.

For Davids idea I had to put it on a spreadsheet to see what would happen under different price structures at June expiry. 10 June $2.50 calls @ $1.50 for $1500 investment, shares at the same time would have been $3.00 for 500 shares, same $1500 investment.

Can't line up simple tables here so see the link. Shares are breakeven above $3.00, options are breakeven above $4. At $5 both strategies yield same profit, above that the options accelerate quickly.

http://frontenacdesign.com/BC/Charts/slw%20opt.htm

So depending on what happens there are pros and cons both ways, depends on how bullish you are and how quickly it will happen. These are interesting subjects I hope we can discuss them in more depth in the new site in the near future.

Quasi

Grym - I typically get 32mpg (as high as 35) with my v6 Buick, runs like a scalded cat when you need that little edge to get moving with traffic. Interior on this '95 model is cheaply adorned with ABS plastic accouterments that easily crack and fall off. 200k mi still runs strong though.

In 1968 as a high school kid I have seen riot between Hindu and Muslim in western state of Gujarat.
We went out on bike to see what going on from very affluent area of city to unknown area populated by Muslim. We were send back by older gentlemen, were told to go back. And I am alive today.
Few year back when people of this state got mad with terrorism and took mater in their own hand result was very bad for Muslim and chief minister of state is still refuse to have US visa for human right violation.
My feeling is Indian people will take this kind of hit, but when they decide it is enough and take matter on their own hand. Result will be anything world have not seen yet. There are over 200 million Muslim in India and there will be tens of millions of refuse fleeing from India. Believe me it is boiling and hope sanity will prevail.
For me personally, my son is on business trip to Bangalore, should be back in state on Monday.
And yes I am very about him. He does not much about India.

People of Indian origin have hundred of organization in USA. Some are cultural/political and some are base on what part of India they are. I have never seen Indian Muslim join any of this organization. Point is they join organization base on religion not base on what country they are from, like Italian/Irish etc.
Country they are born in or living is not important to them. It is religion that matter to them. Should stay away from this topic.

David, Quasi - You are hardly getting any leverage with $2.50 calls at $1.50. Another idea would be to buy the common and sell the $5 calls for june

http://tinyurl.com/55f9eb

Bill,

There is some serious game-playing going on here. When I first read who the players were in on the deal fronted by Teachers the first thing that went through my mind was that when some of these people got locked up with the BCE financials doing DD they would find a way to play this to the downside. Its been about 24 hours since my call on this so here's my best guess on future events. The next likely move will be on the upside predicated by an "announcement" or a "whisper" that the dividend which was suspended earlier this year will be reinstated, perhaps even cumulatively, based on shareholders of record as of ( fill in the date ). Tomorrow US markets are closed and CDN are open, so what an opportunity to work the story on the TSX where market regulation is a joke. More games to be played before this is over but it will all end badly. Buyer beware.

My button says "This bud's for Bill!"

30 year & 10 year Tbond yields are lower then what they were after 2001 crash....

I know some people from India who are Hindu, many people, in fact, and all of them I have found to be polite and courteous, happy people eager to share experience of their customs and cuisine. Very good food, yummm.

Shiva, RE SLW options

Yes interesting, buy the common at $3 and sell the $5 june call for say $0.80. I'll assume you use the profits of selling the calls to increase the number of shares purchased and calls sold. Thus 680 shares and calls equals the same $1500 investment, just to keep everything apples to apples.

adjusted table attached, max profit is limited but breakeven is lowered, thus limiting the trades max profit but also much less risky.

http://frontenacdesign.com/BC/Charts/slwopta.htm

thanks, Quasi

RE: SLW calls. As Quasi had noted, the choice of options vs. stock depends on one's own risk profile. As it turned out, I don't mind taking risks in the stock market (it's only a game, right? The way to real happiness is not through money but through appropriate self-development), and since I currently feel that SLW is greatly oversold, buying calls at the beginning of an uptrend fits better with my assessment of future outcomes on the silver price.

Quasi, you have correctly noted that if SLW reaches $5 in June 2009, then strategy of investing a fixed amount of money into SLW shares at $3 will return the same absolute profit as the strategy of using the same amount of money to buy the $2.50 June SLW calls for $1.50 each. HOWEVER, if SLW reaches $5 BEFORE the expiration day, then the options will have some some risk premium left in them, and so if sold at that point, they will give a greater absolute return.

The probability that SLW (or any other stock that is currently trading under $5) reaches $5 any time BEFORE June 20 is much greater than the probability that it reaches $5 on June 20 BUT NOT BEFORE.

As an implementation of this idea, I placed a sell limit order on these options at $3 (so as to double my money), to make sure that I don't miss any spike in SLW between now and June 20.

David,
Nice, Thanks for sharing your ideas.

David - there is 1 important thing to keep in mind while buying options (besides the stock going against you or staying neutral & time erosion), change in volatility. That really kills the option prices. I have been there many times, hence the heads up. But if you have predicted the overall market/sector/stock trend right, you are a winner with 2X leverage.

Quasi - i have been buying & selling SLW common. At this price level, options are not attractive to my style. But I dont park too much in SLW, so not too bothered. Heck, I bought some cisco after results and that thing is down like $2/share.... Incidentally, I was looking up the charts of commodities/various sector indices & only gold & silver charts looked promising to me. Going to keep a close eye on them

I traveled in India alone and was nearly kidnapped by a Hindu, rescued by a Sikh, followed by a Rajh, escorted by a Brahmin elder and toured to Jain, Hindu and Buddhist sacred sites by a low caste untouchable guide. One cannot underestimate our lack of grasp on this ancient land and their age old inner conflicts. The beauty and unspeakable mystery of India defies description

loannetter - You can see all shades of indians in your travel, extremely hospitable to pickpockets/charlatans. I was robbed in paris Norde Grande by a gentlemen speaking very good french, it was a simple chit chat & my money was gone.... I recently read a report that by 2015 India would have achieved the goal of 95% primary education for all children and that my friend would pave the way for a future generation of egalitarian Indians (I hope). Currently conflicts with islamic radicals is nothing specific to India, its a global phenomenon & India is a soft target to take out their political agenda

ok, i just finished a long piece by piece break-down of Jim Willie's contention about a COMEX default on my blog, http://jglobal.blogspot.com/

i hope no one considers this self promotion or attempting to take traffic away from the site.

DC

SLW- a case of different horses for different courses.

IF SLW does rebound and develops into a trend there could be significant profits. Trying to pick bottoms is IMO a gamble. One only has to look at so many charts over the past 5 months to see potential bottoms that have gone on to points further south. With some fish you need to let them take the bait and run before you strike. For me SLW is one I'd prefer to let run then strike. Given its upside potential it could be a huge black marlin.

There are some promising charting signs for SLW that someone mentioned earlier. If you invert the chart I would say the trend has run out of puff and looks to be ready to descend. I find this useful to check any bias I might have when looking at a chart.

I think without doubt that SLW will break out but I don't know which way. As short term prices pause around an implied agreed value (otherwise they'd be fluctuating or trending) and appear stable then prices are more likely to change ... but which way?

Good luck to all those bottom fishing.

ok - how do you invert the chart? Can i do that in stock charts or do i hv to print it & invert/ till the laptop upside down?

Shark,

"Now are these same folks stashing bullion under their beds next to the Glock and behind the cans of baked beans?"

Don't like the grip-angle on the Glocks. Heckler & Koch P30 is a great gun and well worth the premium. Mossberg 590 with Knoxx SpecOps stock, 000 buck, and Streamlight laser/light is my preferred home defense piece and is within arms reach. I'm actually hoping for a home invasion so I can try it out. Baked beans are okay with a cheeseburger off the grill, but black beans taste better IMO. Also consider keeping a fire extinguisher, flashlight, ax, knife, cell phone, and NOAA weather radio next to your bed. Hide your gold in multiple places, but not under your bed or in your sock drawer...

Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate it, and for those that don't- have a great weekend!

Have kept you and your mother in my thoughts/prayers and hope she is doing well. Enjoy your posts, and owe you a beer (at least) from the $$ I made riding your coattails on an AMBAC trade...

MCM

Shiva,
I use Metastock charting software which has an invert feature built in. I don't know about stockcharts.com but I'm sure they have that feature, maybe somebody on the board can help.

In the meantime to give you a sense of what it looks like, with your stockchart on the screen hit the print screen button on your keyboard, then go to the Paint program (Accessories) and do a Ctrl V then your chart will show up. Right click on th mouse and select rotate vertical and eh presto.

Shiva
Radical Islam has been doing this for hundreds of years, yet due to political correctness, very little scrutiny is placed on this twisted religion and those who practice it.

seadog - need more enlightenment. When you flip the chart, do you look at the left edge of the chart or what? Left edge does look like it is failing but that could be just my perception.

Vinod - after living in the middle east for a quite a few years and in rest of the world, after dealing with all kinds of people, i have come to the conclusion that i agree with Karl Marx on this - religion is the opiate of the masses..... Today i witnessed a fight, one lady was trying to decorate outside her cube with christmas decorations at work and a guy was telling her that its insensitive & incorrect (he was of jewish origin and cared more about hanukkah) & he was adamant that she should not offend other religions. There is no lack of stupid people in this world, across all aisles.....

Shiva,
A picture is worth a thousand words! I hope what I say below paints a good picture and I am not putting this at a level far below your comprehension. If I have just give me a KITA!

Remember the purpose of inverting a chart is to see if you have a natural bias towards bullishness or bearishness. How often have we said "this is definately going up" and then it drops like an ex-mother-in-laws smile.

If you feel bearish about price action on a chart then flip it and see if you are as bullish on the flip as you were bearish on the original.

OK if you can't invert a chart on the computer then take a printout of the chart. Hold the chart in front of you then flip it over so you can see the back of the paper and hopefully you can see through the paper and make out the chart. This would keep the latest date data still on the RHS.

Obviously this is not something you would want to do all the time which is why the invert function on a charting package is good. Now let's assume your chart (before inverting) was like so many at the moment, starts high on the LHS and works its way down to the RHS. Now simply flip the paper over and if you can see through the paper you will have a chart that starts low on the LHS and finishes high on the RHS.

Now looking at the flipped chart do you feel as bullish as you felt bearish on the original chart? If you do then you likely have no bias towards the original chart and should go with your conviction to sell or short. If on the flip chart you feel that prices look like they could roll over then you are bearish which means bullish on the original so selling or going short may not be the way to go.

I hope this made sense. Cheers

Shiva/seadog - Inverting a chart on the computer can be done at StockCharts.com. Just enter the name of the stock (nos) in this manner: $one:nos in the symbol box. Try it.

[Bill Cara note:

We learn so much here. Thank you.

To everyone who replied to my request for comment: I very much appreciate your kind words of support. Just as pleasing is the confirmation that I am accomplishing what I set out to do in the Cara Community: to demystify the markets and trading in order to return control of financial assets to the people who own them. Thank you all who responded, and thank you all who participate in the Cara Community. I see we are learning to dance.]

Anyone else find this scary? The Chinese police literally kidnapped China's Michael Dell equivalent... jaw-dropping audacity

Story: China police say tycoon under investigation
http://tinyurl.com/5ubhp3

On the other hand, we have those BCE crooks and the likes of Bush and Paulson strutting around on this side of the Earth.

On this Thanksgiving Day we must thank President Bush for keeping a strong hand and complete focus against terrorism. To Hunt down and kill these animals pre-emotively, before they can strike. Bush had the right idea. We need over 100 Guantanamo Bay detention camp All over the world

CP,

Hey, 32mpg! About what I'm getting on my 1991 VW Jetta GLI (Geared for pickup, not mileage. My 1986 got 39 highway.) My next door neighbor gets 30 highway with his 2007 Buick.

I have always had at least one VW since my 1974 Pontiac ran so unreliably. Competition made our industry better, but terrible management has been the downfall. Too many products, too easily giving in to union demands, too much pay top to bottom, too many dealers.

I recently heard a cost of $75 per employee. I don't know if that includes the full burden rate or just wages, but with the cost for dealer service (until off warranty) it could be wages!

Here in my city we announced 11.3% as the current unemployment. That's what happened when we were "small enough to fail." It was also mentioned that it has become very tough for anyone over 50 to get even a part time job at minimum wage now.

I know my suspicions are colored by what happens here, but we've been falling for almost two decades and now I see it spreading to other areas of the nation—not just in "the rust belt."

Who says we need a national consensus to be in a depression?

re: deflation/inflation
I think Jim Jubak's view is the best we can hope for.
http://tiny.cc/c0gCi

vinod,

I am sorry to hear of what is happening in your country.

Yes, I have understand a Muslim's religion is first above all else, family, country, or life. It can be this way with other religions too, but seems to be more often with Muslims.

When anything causes people to disregard the lives and rights of others — religion, race, politics, patriotism, money — there will be a dangerous result.

We need to consider this...

Does it do things FOR people, or does it do things TO people?

We also need to judge people as individuals and by how they behave, not where they are from or how they may look.

I hope your son will be safe.

Happy Thanksgiving! Have a safe one.

http://tinyurl.com/6cpv6b

Grym - 11% unemployment is an incredible number. I witnessed first-hand the late 80's silicon valley Dot-Gone bubble, 6% unemployment where many home owners lost over $100k when forced to sell out under duress. This and sub 7% rates were my cue for a shopping spree.

Only time will tell us, I'm trying to keep an open mind.

Question for the group ... which moves first: USD or commodities? Should we be watching the USD for a clue about commodities or vice-versa?

Is it a chicken or the egg argument?

I sent Bill's piece on BCE possible insider trading to Rob Carrick, and he said he would pass on to the right people. I then forwarded him the link to CBC "Who's guarding your money" Sunday Nite arichived telecast http://tinyurl.com/6ggqrx
if you missed it. Thanks for whoever posted that.
Also great interview with Peter Schiff if that has not been mentioned, where he harps on how wrong and ultimately destructive all current attempts to respond to the financial crisis. Worth a look, for his conviction on the subject and also his thoughts on how best to invest. http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip115861

TerryC, your prophecy has come true.

Rumours are being generated today about reinstating the dividend payout as you said it would.

Financial Post story: Death of BCE deal would be investors' delight
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=997356

The TS story below is less blunt, but also hinted at the dividend in the last paragraph.

Toronto Star story: BCE deal left dangling
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/544325

anyone notice the HGU on the TSX is not trading, but its underlying EFT the XGD and other gold shares are moving?

tryingtogetby - These will move together inveresly (USD/Commodities), and some commodities faster than others. I'm anticipating food-related, such as fertilizer will zoom by spring as planting gets under way. I'm sure oil will move quickly at first, then slow as it reaches a target of $70-$75.

Shiva, inverse charts

Yes I see Spot beat me to the punch line. I use the $one:symbol function at Stockcharts quite often to flip charts and also when comparing inverse funds to non-inverse.

Great for the price action view of the chart, just be careful as it inverts everything, inverted volume takes a while to get used to but I just ignore it.

I also use the compare function alot when looking at how things move. symbol#1:symbol#2

Quasi

Re: S&P TSX Global Gold Index

I suppose the best place to go to pick up some ideas about where to invest in the gold sector would be to subscribe to

http://www.kaiserbottomfish.com/s/SectoralTrends.asp?ReportID=181654

and use the sectoral theme reports. I found it helped me to make comparisons within the sector, though John Kaiser had a sell recommendation on my gold junior. I am not going to make any judgement calls for the gold sector as we have seen everyone proven wrong at some point. The one concern is to see the gold price advance once again 'against all odds,' and I think it will. It only needs to advance out of a declining channel and we are off once again.

Lots of comparisons made using the HUI or the XAU, which are suffering badly due to exposure to the silver mines. Silver has collapsed against gold and is bound to make some advances soon, though I expect Bob Hoye to be right about silver underperforming gold for some time. If he says that the gold/silver ratio can reach 100, then I would be looking out for a correction some time to reach that objective, and avoid silver for some time if necessary. Mind you, this is a short term bias.

http://tinyurl.com/6o3yl

So I am, for now, looking at the indexing of my gold junior to the TSX gold index and the gold price. This company, if it were put into production, would provide an IRR of 100% @$854/oz. with enough gold to last a minimum of 8 years. (I believe there is, at minimum, enough gold for some 30 years of mining operations with additional development, mostly underground) All projections by the company use an absolute 'minimum base case scenario' as a matter of company policy. World class drill results have not provided any share price advance, so I assume that the only thing to set the company into production would be the participation of buyers at market.

The entire gold sector now looks like this small company, so no investment early on would have made any money in any portion of the gold sector except the largest cap producers and the ETFs. Even NG.TO is foundering on the rocks. By dint of good fortune, GBN.V did not suffer any adverse effects to the business of its exploration and is the only gold company in Saskatchewan with a very positive outlook, though I expect chronic share price weakness will eventually kill this company. All other gold companies in this province have suffered badly, including the only producer CRJ.TO who is selling off their oil production because of debt. Its very possible to see other exploration companies faring badly in their portion of the world to invest in small miners which could provide a return - there has been that kind of activity in the sector off and on.

The Saskatchewan Coal Rush is over by now, and I thought to look up the long term chart of the company which made the discovery:

http://tinyurl.com/5kzkm6

It was a fascinating ride, but a $19 share price does not compare to a $115 share price reached previously. I think traders will be disappointed if they are hoping for this kind of a return, since all large discoveries have been made already, and so far, none have come to fruition for some reason or another. KRY and ARU come to mind. If I may point out, the large, low grade copper/gold porphyry discoveries requiring massive capital infusion are in deep trouble. And now Ecuador is making noises about how their national debt might not be legally binding. A good business should be attracting venture capital, but I guess size matters.

So we're back to square one, looking for a growth sector.

For the SLW followers here, Peter Barnes CEO/Director will present or be interviewed (?) on the Financial Sense News Hour site this weekend -scroll to "4th hour".

See: http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

David re SLW options,

Yes I didn't get into covering that area, glad you brought it up. Along the way there are an infinite number of ways to cover and exit for a profit or reduce the loss.

I don't watch the screen all day so mostly have to enter orders the night before. My trading screen on options has limited functions, ie when I enter a sell limit at say 100% profit to catch that spike, I sometimes get picked off for only one contract out of ten and that ticks me off. I can enter an AON order but then it is often not filled as I was never at the front of the line when an order large enough to cover it all appears.

Appreciate all the ideas on options as I try to improve that section of the tool box.

Quasi

Re: $SPTGD

Sorry, chart is here:

Stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/6o3yl4

tryingtogetby - CPookie kind of says that there are a lot of variables mixed into the term "commodities". Those variables can slow reaction times down for the category, but if you narrow the concept down a little to that of XLB, the last 3 month correlation of XLB up to UDN (dollar down) is about .93, which is pretty good and might actually have one preceding the other, but I haven't looked that far into it. You can do that and let us know how it turns out. :).

just read Bob Hoye's lattest piece and thought it was well worth the read:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye112708.pdf

My stock list for data downloads had grown to almost 1000 stocks, so last weekend and today, I am doing a simple fundamental check on each stock to see if I want to keep it on my list (which includes BC's favorites).

I am looking only for positieve net earnings and positive quarterly earnings growth (yoy) - I glance at a couple of other items, but those two are primary. My reasoning is that with so many good stocks at bargain(?) prices, stay with the tip of the iceburg where the Sun is shining and forget what's below water.

Surprisingly, I am finding that there are a great many stocks that are still dowing quite well, thank you, but of course not the financials or those with lemming managements. I did have to eliminate some of Bill Cara's selects, but that's his list, and this is mine, so I won't go there.

I did give some leeway to stocks with hight depreciation (such as shipping) and with large assets in the ground (such as some of the mining stocks), but over all, I have stuck with my two criteria and will feel much better about taking my signals as they occur.

Comment?

dr. cosa,

my feelings about Mr. Hoye's outlook for the gold sector hasn't changed much for a couple of years, though he may be proven right in the end.

He has modified his recommendations to reflect movements over the last year. But I have learned some really essential stuff from Mr. Hoye's outlook to do with technicals in the charting.

But Jim Sinclair's been wrong and proven right. If anyone can take the blame for losses in the gold sector, its Mr. Sinclair.

I suspect that John Embry will be proven right. The LTCM disaster is instructive, since the short of gold theory through credit derivatives is probably the cause of short term gold price limitations, not really a cartel.

So far, there's been nothing to do with a meaningful share price advance in any of this, or growth in the gold sector.

Bought tck, opc, and nxy this AM, because they have fallen so low, and are rallying hard . Nice furious bear market rally here.

TCK in Canada TCK-B.to

Any one notice its up another 20% this morning in Canada. Will be a little distortion when it opens in the US Friday AM.

F6,

i agree w/ alot of what you are saying,
accpet for Mr. Embry, i like his style of writing but his funds have been crippled and he is the "il duce" of conspiratory muse with virtually no supporting facts.

my contention is that if and when gold moves back above resistance at $940 or so, many newsletter writers will claim vindication, when in fact gold is just retracing back to the Mar/08 highs, hardly indicative of massive Wiemar inflation as we were just at $1000 a few months back.

either way they guys still make money in anything but investing in gold successfully.

i enjoy this board more than the gold news sites.

as an aside, im shocked that gold hasnt moved much with the recent attacks in india.

dr. cosa, I have learned much from all the senior participants in the gold sector which will prove invaluable.

The gold sector floundering and mines being literally shut down because a strong price cannot be obtained in a trapped market like this one has me thinking that the credit derivatives and swaps hyper-credit regime is figuratively and literally no different that the hyperinflation of Zimbabwe. At least the scenario can be characterized in this fashion. Just that we use credit card and mortgages instead of wheelbarrows.

The other sector I have been watching related to my investment is the forex. I would use what I have learned here in this blog to venture into forex eventually.

The next move will be surprising for everyone, which is the decline of the $ against the ¥. I'm following the notion that $1 will be equal to ¥1. Its extreme, but there is an available target which is still possible to reach, and soon:

stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/62ulcy

I believe this is possible because all of the foreign exchange reserves in terms of Yen and Euros at the Fed or the JCB would have been expended by now. The price imbalance is extreme.

NXY and OPC takeover possibilites, if NXY, probably 50% oilsands partner OPC. Also TLM and even CNQ possible takeover targets. Minyanville suggests short XOM and Chevron, long dbl long etf for pairs trade, yesterday.

TECK is moving up finally!!!! up $1.05 cdn

Teck soars as copper price climbs
CHRISTOPHER DONVILLE

Bloomberg News

November 27, 2008

VANCOUVER -- Teck Cominco Ltd., Canada's largest diversified mining company, rose the most in 20 years in Toronto trading after China's central bank cut interest rates and copper rose to a one-week high.

The Vancouver-based copper and zinc producer climbed $1.08 or 26 per cent to $5.27 yesterday on the Toronto Stock Exchange, the biggest one-day gain since Sept. 12, 1988.

Before yesterday, Teck declined 88 per cent this year as the global credit crisis reduced demand for metals and investors became concerned that the company may have trouble repaying debt it acquired to purchase Fording Canadian Coal Trust.

"Teck's up from an appallingly low base," Michael Smedley, chief executive officer of Morgan Meighen & Associates in Toronto, said yesterday in a phone interview. "The Chinese rate cuts are helping, but they are also lifting oil and other resources. People are hoping China will rescue the markets."

Print Edition - Section Front
Enlarge Image

The People's Bank of China lowered its key lending rate yesterday by the most in 11 years to help prevent an economic slump. China's consumption of copper helped lift the price of the metal to a record in May.

Teck shares plunged 21 per cent on Nov. 20 after saying it would halt dividends and cut spending to conserve cash for debt repayment. The company used a $5.8-billion (U.S.), one-year bridge loan and a $4-billion, three-year loan to help finance last month's Fording acquisition.

Bill Cara - Hope you had your sweater on this morning for your walk - great weather!!

Question, please (for Bill or anyone), about GGB, NUE, and X. My reasoning is that Steel corps should profit more when energy costs go down since they have to use so much energy to work the iron into steel.

But, not so. When I compare charts of the above to those of Crude, NatGas, and Coal (KOL), the steel makers go up and down in high correlation (especially GGB and X, not so much so with NUE) with the price of energy; ie. steel makers have highest prices when energy costs are highest.

What am I missing?

Re: Commodities

The "reflation" is really on hold until they can actually reflate. The viagra of credit derivatives hasn't lived up to its reputation. So where to go? I would say profitable companies set for growth related to certain commodities in a country with a collapsing currency should be the place to invest, but not right away.

That leaves me thinking that foreign investments may be the only course of action for U.S. based investors if their currency collapses and they have a bond market rout. But this might happen simultaneously all over the world.

F6 - Good Gawd, $1~Y1? Sounds like going long Yen will be a great trade... Japanese manufacturing will be stopped in it's tracks?

spot - steel manufacturers just add value to the commodities they consume. Prices of steel have fallen along with commodities (ore/energy)? If steel manufacturers can buy raw materials cheap and sell their products high, they realize gain accordingly. Currently, they can buy raw materials at deep discount, but demand for steel in down.

Steel manufacturers should be buying commodities futures hand over fist now, in preparation for a rising tide. If you can find one with deep pockets currently working on hedges, you've likely found a winner!

F6 - A collapse in USD in relationship to other currencies would tend to make US-based manufacturing more attractive, no?

Yes, CP, but the collapse will have to occur and prospective companies for investment will have to survive the downturn.

Its a difficult scenario to contemplate, but major adjustments have already occurred which did not seem possible only a few months ago.

The can prevent the collapse of the $US by fixing it to the price of gold, but this would stagnate any prospective plan for growth. There is only a low probability that the dollar will survive.

If that's the case, devaluing all currencies against gold will help to write down debt and clear it off over the years without massively crashing the world economy.

my opinion on BCE INC

This deal is a year old ,shareholders(MY DAD'S RETIREMENT MONEY) have been patiently waiting for all the required hurdles to be met and it was going fine...how insulting is it that up to now no one questioned BCE's solvency issue... CAN IT BE???? this deal is a year in the making.....this is wrong and people are losing money here....insiders must of known this was coming and they prepared themselves for a money making opportunity... .

Insider are making money here and the banks in question CITI,TD ETC are cheering....little guy gets screwed again Where is our watch dog??...where is our government??.....ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.

The markets are a joke THE RICH GET RICHER AND THE POOR GET POORER....

Shame on the system and we the people who allow it to be.....

Hi,

Being an European, and living in Europe, I do not celebrate thanksgiving, but I am aware of the significance of the date to our fellow North-American Members of the Community, and therefore I would like to leave a sincere seasonal greeting to all of you here.

Looking back at recent times, I would summarize all that we are going through as a significant change in the structure of the world. The challenging part of that structural change is underway but is not yet come to conclusion, and therefore it appears clear to me that the times will remain challenging for a few years, untill some sort of new order is established.

In challenging times, the key to survival is honest sharing of knowlege and experience, and that is exactly what is done here, so we all have reason to celebrate the fact that we are proud Members of this community, under Bill's experienced guidance.

Cheers!

Talking about shame on the system, how about AIG renaming their annual bonus a "retention" bonus to avoid additional hits to their public image...

One day after announcing strict limits on salaries and bonuses for its top tier of executives, AIG revealed that some of those executives will receive millions in “retention bonuses” next year.

In a regulatory filing on Wednesday, the insurance group disclosed that Jay Wintrob, an executive vice-president, had put off receiving the first instalment of his $3m retention bonus from December to April 2009.

He will receive the second instalment, originally scheduled to be paid out in December 2009, in April 2010. David Herzog, AIG’s chief financial officer, also opted for the later payment schedule.

The retention bonuses for 130 key executives were disclosed by AIG in September, after the US government rescued the firm from bankruptcy by purchasing 79.9 per cent of the company for $85bn. After the government takeover, Edward Liddy, the former Allstate chairman, was named chief executive and AIG offered retention bonuses to Mr Wintrob, head of AIG’s retirement services division, among others.

In October, AIG’s management was embarrassed by the disclosure that the company spent $440,000 on a weekend retreat in California for senior performers.

http://tinyurl.com/5dew7x

northvan - "This is not the first article that has suggested the treasuries will be supported until the end of the financial system..."

Graded-index reflation (my term) - My belief is the FED will prop up the bond market only as long as necessary, with newly minted paper, as has always been done. This is an old trick that's been in the playbook since the USD went fiat, and is a large component behind the smoke and mirrors of fiat. So yes, I expect the FED to participate in bond selling but only once they've reflated satisfactorily on a graded index. This will take some time, as they recognize their models are imperfect and not all-encompassing. A dramatic overnight change (of some sort) would bring about swift corrective action(s), scaring the hell out of a multitude, creating a plethora of harmonics, and all sorts of potential issues, so I anticipate will be avoided as much as possible.

Seadog - thanks for your explanation, now i understand.

Spot, Quasi - thanks for the stockchart tips. Very useful. Regarding steel stocks, i have been buying puts on NUE when it gets close to $40 (for ST trade), worked well so far. NUE, X, ATI, AMZN, CRM have been my favorite shorts (purely for trading though)

F6 - "a low probability that the dollar will survive."

I respectfully disagree, but wouldn't be surprised to see as much as ~20%-30%(my guess) decline in USD strength in comparison to some other currencies. I'm thinking this will put some wind back in the sails for US manufactured goods export.

Shiva there is a support forum for Stockcharts users, where you can ask questions and get tips and tricks.

It is run by users not directly by Stockcharts, but they do endorse the forum and reference it on their site as the place to go for info and discussion.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=1277

The most frequent questions are on writing scans, but there are a bunch of us there who will try to answer just about anything related to Stockcharts.

Quasi

ALOHA !!

ON ENERGY DEMAND
Okay with unemployment rising and the economy moving into a full recession/depression and with mortgage defaults at record levels as well as bankruptcies rising to record levels one would think there would be reduced energy consumption. After all that is the main reason why the price of crude has crumbled, due to World recession, which means less energy demand.

What I read on the internet is that Hawaii tourism has dropped some 18%. What I read everywhere is that America is losing jobs. What I see on the WTIC spot price is that demand has fallen off a cliff, yet what I see every damn time I drive into Hilo is plenty of TRAFFIC!! I asked friends who live in San Francisco and Los Angeles and San Diego and Las Vegas and Dallas and Miami and New York and they say there is no really distinct drop in Traffic!

So I decided to try and verify what I am seeing with my own eyes by going to the EIA website. EIA is the ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION. This government agency monitors energy consumption in AMERICA.

What I found is the following, all measured in TRILLION BTUs:

TOTAL ENERGY USAGE:
1973 - 75,708
1980 - 78,122
1985 - 76,491
1990 - 84,652
1995 - 91,173
2000 - 98,975
2005 - 100,506
2006 - 99,856
2007 - 101,569
2008 - 67,550(8 month)

2006 - 67,058(8 month)
2007 - 68,274(8 month)

Remember the numbers quoted above are for "trillions btu".

Look back in 1980 during our last bid recession when interest rates rose to 20%(Volcker years), oil consumption increased!

I am astounded to see that during this DEPRESSION #2 where the entire World finances are collapsing and jobs are being dumped en masse and now even China employees are rioting, energy consumption in AMERICA has not dropped ONE BIT and is on course to exceed US energy consumption for 2006!

MY EYES DO NOT LIE! I do not see any drop in traffic here on the BIG ISLAND of HAWAII! NONE!!!

What see you in your town?

So, this brings me back to my original ponderance. If demand has not dropped, but has actually increased over 2006 consumption levels(based on 8 months)then why has WTIC and regular gas prices fallen some 50% to 60%?

Remember this financial crisis and this slip into recession has been going on since last August 2007. Where's the demand crash? I thought futures markets were forward price discovery mechanisms? If supply and demand have anything to do with the mechanism of futures markets then I would have to conclude that futures markets are a dismal failure or are manipulated!

Who is running this CIRCUS?

Kaimu, they call it a "rich man's panic," but the pain is obviously being felt in main street as the taxpayer bails out Wall St.

CP, I would prefer that governments be honest about their dealings in credit derivatives and how much exposure to their currencies and bonds are going to affect financial markets. We have already seen unprecedented failures of currencies which nobody would contemplate months ago, yet it happened due to the collapse of power reverse dual currency notes in Japan.

Things have a lot further to go, but for the moment, the target on my long term chart of the ¥/$ appears to be a layup, without having to contemplate a complete collapse.

GDX, GoldMiners Ndx etf, had a nice run up this week, as most of you probably know, but did you also look at Bill Cara's "canary of the mines", the Toronto Venture Ndx? It also signaled an upward move this week (so far).

Interesting.

Kaimu: you answered it yourself

many many many times

the markets are manipulated, the rules are set up so a few can do so while under the illusion of free markets

the reason I walked away from all this in the 70's was I saw the players directly in action and knew it is someone else's game and not one to make my own... otherwise you become enslaved to someone else's manipulation.

You know all this, you have made your self debt free etc

we share this information for others to help them make the choice, you show them physical examples of it, countless posts here document various aspects of it in action.

Yet in the end it is still a personal choice for each of us in our action to buy into someone else's system of control or let go and be your own path.

NO amount of documentation will convince someone under the geas of another until they free themselves on their own terms.

peace my friend.

Kaimu - Do you remember that just before Bill Clinton left office, he supposedly "sold" the national oil reserves to some unknown individual who reportedly had no prior connection to Oil - anyway, he got rid of the oil reserves before turning over the Office.

Now, would GWB do the same for the incoming Democrat - dump the oil? That would drive down the price on Crude without any basis in Supply/Demand equations. GWB has said that he would leave his Office in the same or better condition as he obtained it.

spot, the scenario to contemplate is as follows:

Large hedge funds in Canada are not going to make money if all of their commodity investments are on the decline. So what they do is loan out the shares to short sellers.

But in Canada, you have perfectly legal naked shorting rampant throughout the markets. All you have to do is sell IOUs into the market in sufficient quantity to depress the share price sufficiently, and then call up the major holders of shares like Sprott and have them 'loan' you the shares retroactively in order to close out the short sale, without incurring any cost. Essentially, you're shorting for free without being bound by any regulations or actually borrowing the shares.

Nobody is watching the CDNX and it goes unregulated. The flip side of the situation is that any naked shorting boileroom operation will have to buy back their obligations should the market go against them. So, a buyer's panic if you will.

I think this will be reserved for certain sectors to advance, and some sectors where people still cling to beliefs that oil will go up forever. I don't think the market can be gamed to rise unless there is a pervasive move into the sector.

kaimu - I've been observing same, I think price drop below $70-$75 range is undershoot. This is helping to reverse economic damage, but something must be done to relieve pressure on financial industry from mortgage foreclosures. This credit crisis is potentially moving deeper into economy, reflation will increase with new administration.

F6 - are you thinking oil will become 100x more expensive in USD?

kaimu - Also, USD is unbelievably strong now, so energy price and commodities have gone down accordingly. I'll bet commodities consumption in China has dropped considerably, too.

CP, it could, but oil does not typically retain any value as a commodity.

Previously that thought where commodities were somehow a store of value had people saying that currencies should reflect value in commodities, when these currencies have now collapsed a good 20% on the heels of the oil price rout.

This is why I say a currency collapse is very difficult to contemplate, since all forms of hard currency are likely to suddenly disappear from the ATMS, or at the banks, and buying things will not be as easy as it was before. Obtaining a price for anything will be very difficult as well, though prices themselves may not change.

Kaimu, Agree

I have thoughts along the same lines.

Yes people will try to use a little less in hard times but I don't see it making the huge difference that the media talks about. We also have to remember the term people is not a constant, the population is growing, maybe not so much in the US right now but around the world.

So maybe the existing population will use a little less per person, but all the new people are not going to use Zero, I would say they will use the same per capita as existing.

I took your US EIA data and added some quick data from the US Census site, looking into the US per capita energy use. It has dropped a little over your time period, we are a little more efficient.

Would be interesting to do the same thing but on a world basis, maybe on another day.

Not easy to post tables here, pls see link.
http://frontenacdesign.com/BC/Charts/US%20energy.htm

Quasi

Quasi, Kaimu - you are not adding Chindia's local consumption.... Even if we assume there is a 30% drop in their requirements going forward, overall energy requirements have grown considerably vis a vis 15 years ago. But the current price of oil is back to the 1990 levels.

http://www.state.gov/e/eeb/rls/rm/2005/66574.htm

Shiva

Agreed, energy is a world problem and looking at just the US is only part of the picture. Just that was the only data within a few minutes from my fingers.

Like I said really need to do it on a world basis, world population curve, world energy usage curve (from all sources), just don't have that data at hand right now. Maybe something we could gather as a group.

Quasi

Posted by seadog: "For me SLW is one I'd prefer to let run then strike. Given its upside potential it could be a huge black marlin."

I think the chart of silver price is key to predicting the SLW movements. Even though the SLW chart shows only a timid rise above the triple bottom, SLV made a clear double bottom and is sitting right now right at the level of the highest point between two bottoms (it was above that level a few days ago, so we can think of $10.20 as SUPPORT for the SLV price rather than a resistance). So if SLV rises even a little from the current levels, it will technically seem like the beginning of a new uptrend, and in this scenario, SLW simply cannot go down (the recent collapse of its price was related to the fears at that at the silver prices below $8 SLW might not meet its debt payments).

Steve Forbes announces the worst is over:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/world_news_america/7698652.stm

(Forbes disagrees but) A strong dollar will trash any hopes of a recovery.

From Ned Goodman, Dynamic MF's. 45yrs in investment business.
220m cars in US
32m in China and rising rapidly.
1.5m India
China will soon have cars to export. Good-bye Detroit.
Demand destruction oil?
Not nearly as much as supply destruction. Need to replace 13mB/D depletion. 9% decline in production. Low price, not happening.
Ditto all the metals. Inventories dangerously low.
Stagflation coming.
Incremental global growth is coming from emerging economies.
He recommended a book The Ascent of Money. A pretty good review here: http://tinyurl.com/5fybjx

China: $600b stimulus into real economy building cities (200>1m) and infrastructure: Roads, railroads, power, hydro, expressways, Ports, Airports, Subways, Education: Science and Engineering degrees.

US $2T into black hole of banks, education: Business school.
Where is this leading?
Turn it around Obama.

He recommended a book The Ascent of Money. A pretty good review here: http://tinyurl.com/5fybjx

Excerpts from review

"He draws a parallel between international investment during the last great burst of globalisation from 1870 to 1914 and the massive international capital flows of the present global era. The difference was that during the 19th century it was mostly a case of the developed world, Britain, France and other European nations, financing infrastructure in developing countries, now it is a still-developing country, China, financing consumption in the US. The author writes of "Chimerica", which he describes as "the wonderful dual country ... which accounts for just over a 10th of the world's land surface, a quarter of its population, a third of its economic output and more than half of global economic growth in the past eight years".

Ferguson ponders whether the relationship between China and the US might break down into some kind of trade war and that this might trigger the end of this period of globalisation. He draws three disturbing lessons from history. One is that major wars can happen even when globalisation is far advanced. The second is that the longer the world goes without a major conflict, the harder it becomes to imagine there could be war. And third, a crisis that strikes complacent investors does more damage than one that hits battle-scarred ones.

Financial markets are taking a lot of stick at the moment. Is that fair? I like his concluding judgement. It is that markets "are like the mirror of mankind, revealing every hour of every working day the way we value ourselves and the resources of the world around us. It is not the fault of the mirror if it reflects our blemishes as clearly as our beauty."

Some Gold stocks, g.to, yri.to have broken through their 50 SMA and both daily RSI over 70.

Can Silver stocks be not far behind. Here's hoping for SLW, up 6% today. As of today, 46% till it reaches it's 50 SMA.

I haven't sold it yet.

Question re: moving averages

What do most experience traders use?

Simple moving average or Exponential moving average?

Thanks

Re: Gold Sector Long Term

We are now in a position to take in the gold sector long term.

Since 2006, there has been a net money outflow from gold futures, and we are at a long term low. Taking a long term glance at the S&P TSX Global Gold Index compares with the findings in the futures markets, as the RSI has been in a declining channel for two years. I used the TSX Gold index to compare with my gold junior and see now they are highly correlated, except for 2008.

Long term monthly chart of gold futures:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/3063453821/sizes/o/

stockcharts.com $SPTGD

http://tinyurl.com/6kdch3

BVN

Doing my scans and this mining co showed up. Anyone have a quick blurb. Yes/No/Run the other way?

Stockcharts
http://tinyurl.com/7ygy2

Google
http://tinyurl.com/6qt6kg

Amazing how placid the market is today. Is this how it would be if Canada were operating w/o the influence of Wall St? I'm holding thru the night. Got killed last time I did this. Not much growth today from my entry points but I like the upside potential of OPC.TO, having followed the company during it's first year from IPO about 3 yrs ago.

Sorry wrong link on 1st one.

Stockcharts
http://tinyurl.com/5oknq5

Based on what Ned Goodman said above, and others, I think commodities are a hold from here. Low inventories, and prices below marginal cost of production means something has to give. I think prices go up, and stocks follow. JMO

NYUgrad, yes interesting chart.

Not sure what time frame you are looking at or what indicators, overlays. The link you posted is just to the generic symbol which will come up on my Stockcharts screen with my default settings.

Note if you hit the "linkable version" button just below the chart before grabbing the URL, it will add a "P XXX" number at the end of the URL, it then includes all your chart settings. Everyone will then see the same thing as you, provided they are members, non-members may see a little less depending on the complexity of your chart.

Quasi

ALOHA !!

Okay ... Yes the US Peso has appreciated from 72 to 85 about a 18% rise while crude is down 66% from $147 to $50. The rest of the "leverage" effect on oil futures is the financial crisis where a combo of redemptions and margin has taken its toll. Where are the "speculators" being grilled at the US CONgress for the price crash in oil and gas? Its "political agendas" at work from that sense, but what is really behind this rout is THE MONEY! The basis of our global monetary system is unstable and has absolutely no store of value left, neither long term or short term! This is creating total malinvestment of business capital. About 99% of manufacturers and mining companies employ "hedges" on everything from currencies to oil in order to stabilize the lost stability that money use to account for. Prior to 1971 what US company was hedging currencies and oil? After 1971 money has been on a downhill slide in terms of stability and value. Governments add to the gauntlets companies must run by using regulations and taxes on imports and exports and tariffs and subsidies of select sectors. In America this has greatly reduced the average company's efficiency and viability in terms of competition in the global markets. GOVERNMENT AND ITS MONEY ... The two BIGGEST obstacles to having a successful business in America!!!

In the meantime its HELTER SKELTER for the American People and the domestic businesses that employ them. Sadly we vote for the two party aristocracy that creates these obstacles every time! The DEMS(Helter) and the REPS(Skelter)!!

Once again ... ITS THE MONEY STUPID!!

Great comments, kaimu! You hit it on the head - company efficiency.

Is mainstream media starting to advocate buy PM? See excellent FAQ from Globe & Mail report on Business, aptly titled "With markets in turmoil, how to buy gold bars"

http://tinyurl.com/5jwryy

excerpt:

"With the market in turmoil, I may buy some gold bars to keep under the mattress. How might I do this and would there be PST and GST? Do they come in convenient denominations?

It is actually pretty easy to buy gold in its physical form. In Canada, one of the biggest precious metal traders is Bank of Nova Scotia, through its ScotiaMocatta division. It has gold in various forms readily available for retail sale.

You can go into the main Scotiabank branch in downtown Toronto and buy gold coins, wafers or bars, ranging in size from one-twentieth of an ounce to 400 ounces (which will set you back more than $320,000). You can also buy gold in other bank branches around the country, but you have to make arrangements for delivery in advance.

There is no GST on most gold products, if they are very pure (above 99.5 per cent) and bought for investment purposes. There may be provincial sales taxes, depending on which province you live in. And you'll usually pay manufacturing, shipping and storage fees on top of the spot price.

Do I have to provide identification in order to buy gold?

You will have to show two pieces of identification, and a social insurance number, when you pick up your gold, and when you bring it back to sell later on. Because the profits on gold sales are taxable, Canada Revenue wants to keep track of these transactions. And the bank has to monitor any large transactions to watch for money laundering."

vinod-

interesting story about your 1968 experience...best wishes to your son as he makes his way back to the states...

kaimu
Fin de siecle:
The fall of the Roman Empire
The fall of the British Empire
The ongoing fall of American hegemony

What do we learn from history? As we migrated from pounds to dollars so shall we migrate to renmimbi. Perhaps its time to start researching the Chinese central banking model or controlled economy goes laissez-faire. Perhaps a better read for you younger guys as I suspect the transition will take longer than the remainder of my life span.

I wonder if someone has written a book about the transition from British to American financial power. I'm sure someone has written such a thesis for their Ph D. T'wld be an interesting read me thinks.

Happy Thanksgiving to you'all

seadog,

by the time china supplants the US it will likely be as heavily fractured as europe became after the fall of the roman empire.

westerners tend to look upon china as this mono-lithic state with little consideration for independance movements and potential flashpoints within their borders that with increasing prosperity and urbanization will as history has always shown, lead to divisions within.

china's heavy hand can only work for so long to keep what amounts to the largest empire in history population wise. the romans could barely hold a few hundred million together, russia the same, at least the US remains together with 300 million. imagine 6 united states in one nation.... and you believe it will still be here in that same form by the end of our lifetimes?

during an economic collapse weve seen the flight of global dollars to the US. during a mass panic would you rather have your funds in a US or chineese bank account?

during that same crisis, how well do you think china can hold up: a nation with almost 1/4 of its people living in abject poverty, a massive and growing military-industrial complex, and impending shortages of jobs, commodities and too many only-male children families. this is the stuff wars are made of.

Still hanging around and learning. Thanks Bill. I have been here for many year now, and appreciate all the wisdom given.
Probably the most important lesson I have learned is to author my own trades and decisions.
It is so easy to fall into a dangerous kind of confidence or trust in someone else's opinions or ideas. Of course that kind of trade would require that the author of the idea be there at your shoulder telling you how to manage it and close it out for a profit. Good luck.
That's not and never will be the way the world works.
Whether you like it or not the 'other side of the trade' is probably your trusted advisor, broker or guru. I thought they had to adhere to the 'prudent man' rule, or the notion of a fiduciary, how naive.
Now I learn neither is expected or will be enforced. I think I can confidently tell you that they are not your best friends.
What's worse, they are looking to eat your lunch.
I got news for you, you're on your own, partner.
Think for yourselves, my friends, and don't be swayed.
And listen to Bill.
Rig
HAPPY THANKGIVING.

Shiva, Re: religion is the opiate...etc. That's the good news. Religion is the "firewater" of the masses, now that's the bad news.

charlie

Quasi,

Sorry. I posted those links while rushing out the door re BVN.

http://tinyurl.com/55ybyg

It came up in my scan for the criteria of trading above 50 DMA. then i looked at rsi, stoch, and accum/dist. charts look good for reversal but i know nothing about the company. I just found it and was curious if the community knew anything about them as they are a miner.

their profile on yahoo finance.

Engages in the exploration, mining, and processing of gold, silver, and various metals in Peru and internationally. The company principally produces, distributes, and sells refined gold, silver-lead concentrates, silver-gold concentrates, zinc concentrates, and lead-gold-copper concentrates.

NYUgrad,

Do you use the Stockcharts scan engines? I think they are one of the best for technical scans. I use the advanced scan engine quite a bit.

If you have questions on Stockcharts scanning just ask them over on the Stockcharts support forum. There are a few of us user's who like a challenge and we've written some pretty interesting scans.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=1277

A very useful info site for anyone who uses Stockcharts.

Quasi

NYUgrad,

Here's BVN with the setting I normally start with for most charts. Then I look at it in the weekly and monthly time frames, same indicators.

Looks interesting but I wouldn't enter right now for a low risk entry. Also need to check out a little bit more about what they do and their exposures.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BVN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p53120012332

Quasi

SLW up 6% in Toronto today? but volume expectedly very low with the u.s holiday.
http://tinyurl.com/6oumyk

Hope SLW catches up on the half day tomorrow in the U.S

Quasi,

I am currently on free trial with Blocks software. Only reason i like is A)Free B) software based so if i am on a plane/train, i can still do my work as the data is all on my hard drive.

I might look into the paid stockcharts services.

as for bvn, i havent done any intel. i just liked the recent trend and the fact it mined several types of metals. all my powder is in slw right now anyway :)

I dont know much about Comex issue with gold/silver and found this recent write-up and found interesting.

http://tinyurl.com/5q88ss

kaimu,
"would you rather have your funds in a US or chineese bank account?"

Quite frankly neither.

Good points on a possible break up of China but then again that happened in the US along with a war and now an uneasy truce between north & south or east & west. Oops almost forgot Alaska but that's a country, right!

Or did she get that one wrong also?

I found an interview of SLW CEO, Peter Barnes, from yesterday. the amazing thing is the source i found it on, yahoo finance msg boards.

http://tinyurl.com/2c5ja6

His spot is under "4th hour"
he talks about the current stock price, silver spot price, their debt, and even at $8 silver they can pay off their debt covenants in 5 yrs.

Lots of other companies on this program.

I guess my turkey hangover is over as i am now the only one posting at 2:17am.

The author of "Liar's Poker" Michael Lewis, who was recently cited here on his op-ed article, was also interviewed by fool.com.

here is the link to share with the community.

http://tinyurl.com/6gtfzj

Civics literacy quiz:

http://tinyurl.com/2s3uzg

I scored 85% ~ missed five questions, although I disagree with some of the 'correct answers'.

Sad part is the overall results:

http://tinyurl.com/69hjb9

Citizens score higher than elected officials.

Imagine that......

French Canuck,

I'll be making a trip to Montreal in the spring.

Can you recommend any good coin shops in the City?

(Taking a guess that you may live in the area)

Thanks in advance

[Bill Cara note:

While in Montreal be sure to eat and relax at Modavie, my favorite place in Montreal.
http://www.modavie.com/indexm_e.html

And say hello to Bruno Piras, general manager, for me.]

NYU GRAD,

Thanks for staying up late. Great interview.

ALOHA !!

Herein lies the human condition and why money needs to be separated from the "dictates" of government and Wall Street and central banks!

I am 100% positive that Bush and Paulson and Bernanke actually do not consider themselves "the problem" but they consider their loss of power "the problem"! Its a fine line between fraud and government for the people!

Ludwig Von Mises:
Most of the tyrants, despots, and dictators are sincerely convinced that their rule is beneficial for the people, that theirs is government for the people.END

No better modern day example is Putin and Chavez and Bush and now OBAMA is "on deck"... Every leader must rationalize this and surround themselves with those who agree with their rationalizations. What US Treasury Secretary or US FED Chairman can take the helm of the US money supply and look back over their historical performance, where the purchasing power of the US Dollar has diminished by 95% and think that they are going to actually make a difference or think that they are viable or credible? Just based on past performance alone they must think to themselves that they and the entity they represent are just plain fraudulent and useless. Yet they persist in believing they have relevance and value as they serve not the people but their masters. They themselves are just servants and will serve until their services are no longer required. WE THE PEOPLE determine that in the long, long run, but WE THE PEOPLE have the least ability to discern that, whilst in the midst of our daily struggles. Sometimes a drowning man cannot see the life preserver being thrown him in the heat of his struggle to stay afloat. I have witnessed this phenomenon. My many decades of surfing I have rescued maybe 30 people from drowning in rip tides and many of them I would ask if they wanted help and they would say NO thinking that their struggles are only temporary and then in a few minutes more they start screaming, knowing they misjudged their predicament as sheer panic sets in. Guys were always by far worse than girls. Guys end up grabbing and pushing for anything tangible to hold onto in the water to stop their feeling of impending doom and helplessness to the point where I would have to punch them or kick them in the head to "wake" them from their panic state! I was always somewhat hesitant to save a guy just because I always felt my life was at risk more, but I gave in because I did not want a dead man floating on my conscience my entire life. I recall seeing what a dead bloated human carcass looks like floating in the water as I once ran across a black man's body out surfing in Galveston, TX. I thought from a distance it looked like a bag or a log but when I paddled closer I saw it was a bloated carcass being eaten by fish with small chunks missing. Man, I was with my brother and we almost instantly puked! We ended up paddling back to shore and calling the police. What had happened was, the prior night he and his friend were on one of the jetties fishing and one fell in and the other jumped in after him and it turned out they were drunk and neither could swim. They never found the other guy ... Hummmmm ... lots of metaphors for drowning investors there as I notice many describe their positions as "underwater"! Obviously "panic" has set in, not only in the stock markets, but in real life. Panic is the worst thing you can do, even if you are caught in the rip tide of the redemptions and margin calls! Pain is not all bad though ... I think though, that as we all are caught in this gnarly financial unprecedented global rip tide that holding gold for me is like a life preserver. Odd isn't it, because in real life when you are struggling to remain afloat in the water the last thing you want to hold onto is gold! What I love most about gold is the total lack of any liabilities whatsoever. I never have a counterparty to assess. I can sleep at night knowing that even if the FDIC and the US government go broke tomorrow it won't matter to me and in fact it only makes what gold I possess even that much more valuable. Take issue if you must, but there's over 5000 years of monetary precedence to contend with. Funny how all the technology and FRNs in the World can't change that ... Gold is still the "sexy beast"!! If you've ever held a kilo bar or a one ounce gold Maple Leaf then you know what I refer to. I am always amazed by the size and weight shock amidst the cool to the touch, a little mesmerizing and disarming. OH-H-H BEHAVE, BABY!!! HA !!

I know there are a lot of Americans out there having a "less than" THANKSGIVING and I know there are even more citizens of the World out there who could give a rats ass about THANKSGIVING and that is how it has always been since I have been alive. The "haves" and the "have nots"! Through the ages that has not changed much at all, except here in America. This country has brought a lot of sunlight to the ideas and the lives of the dark ages in the form of FREEDOM. For the Kings and despots of the World at that time the idea of FREEDOM for the masses was misery and a threat to their rule. Now we see on TV the Kings and the despots of the World and especially those that preside over America are back. They are back demanding that we give up our FREEDOMS in exchange fore their false HOPES. In reality less government is true FREEDOM and our Founding Fathers threw us a life preserver for eternity when they penned the US CONSTITUTION and the BILL OF RIGHTS and the DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE. It is up to us to grab that life preserver ... More government was never the answer. More FREEDOM is! I think more and more people are seeing that with each passing day now. Let FREEDOM ring! Give FREEDOM a chance! Going back to our Constitutional roots is where its at ... I do not even listen to the same old tired rhetoric of HOPE and CHANGE any more. Its a sound bite and a lie. HOPE and CHANGE by growing government is a suckers bet at best! Fool me once and HOPE THIS!!!

QUESTION AUTHORITY !!!

ALOHA !!

From the Theory Of Money and Credit, by Ludwig Von Mises ...

"The entrepreneurs who approach banks for loans are suffering from shortage of capital; it is never shortage of money in the proper sense of the word."

"No increase in the welfare of the members of a society can result from the availability of an additional quantity of money."

"There cannot be stable money within an environment dominated by ideologies hostile to the preservation of economic freedom."

"No nation need fear at any time to have less money than it needs."

CP,

Graded-index reflation (I like it) — a dressed up version of the slowly cooked frog.

In the mean time the bond funds are doing OK. I have sell stops on the ETFs and am ready to sell the open-end mutuals at first actual rate increase. (or weird rule change of any kind).

Unbelievably, I still have friends who are maintaining the "buy and hold" myth — one even after Vanguard Total Stock Fund is fluctuating between -40% to -50%!

These are people who, while I saw my business evaporating in the globalization process never lost a paycheck. Last New Years I tried to tell him what was coming in our economy (I was massively into SKF.) he confidently went by the popular investment publications' opinions.

Many sad stories around here.