good morning

futures don't look good for the day.

many are saying that the s & p estimates are still too high for 2009 and that the s & p will end up around 600. anyone agree with this?

unfortunately, i hold a bunch of long stock positions bought around the October lows. are you saying that it is not good to be long stocks and better to be using options?

I'm still waiting for Time (or was it Newsweek) magazine cover titled "The Death of Equities"....I think we're getting close...

TCK

I have just read that as a filing date of 18 Nov 2008
The Caisse De Depot has aquired 58,600 shares of TCK at $CDN 6.63

Regards

May 2008 - I was trading puts on financials, mostly MS and making lunch money every week or so. The trades that put me over the top for the year were still to come in July, when I was buying puts on USO and MRO, and calls on CAL. My best trade of the year, interestingly enough, was BAC calls on 15 July when it hit its bottom (18+ at that time) and then rallied back to 30.

Til 20 Sept my trading account was up about 30% on the year.

Since 20 Sept, I am now dead even on the year, which is still OK considering the markets, but indicates that I was clearly wrong on general market direction and individual issues that I chose in late September.

Still and all - I'm not uncomfortable with what I currently hold, and I'm optimistic for the future, tho' like most, at times I get impatient.

I will wait out the market and see what the future brings.

Re: Motley Fool,

Every time I've followed one of their recommendations, I've regretted it. When they plug a stock, it must be for 10 yrs down the line.

Right now I'm having an Elmer Fudd moment: "Be very, very afraid." Undoubtedly should be getting back in with what little remains in my account. Thank you Bill for your wise words yesterday in which you said that every successful trader has had his head handed to him before he learns to trade. Now is not the time to call it quits. However, I plan to use position sizing to limit my losses.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose by a larger than expected 27,000 last week to their highest level in 16 years, Labor Department data showed on Thursday, as a harsh economic environment forces employers to cut back on hiring.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits were a seasonally adjusted 542,000 in the week ended November 15 from a revised 515,000 the previous week.

A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Thursday, November 20, 2008

8:30 AM ET. Nov 15 Jobless Claims

Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 505K; previous 516K)

Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (expected -11K; previous +32K)

Continuing Jobless Claims (previous 3897000)

Continuing Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +65K)

A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ )

fslr $95 pre market.

i appreciate the head on a platter comment, but i have had about everything else handed to me as well. I am tempted to cash out to day because i am concerned that things have broken through support levels and may drop hard.

there just doesn't seem to be much in the way of buying.

accourant, same here. It's kept me from completely wiping out. Does the market go lower? I think so, but the risk/reward on the short side is too high while fighting the downtrend eats away at long trades.

I'm gonna wait until I see signs of this forced selling coming to a conclusion.

unemployment numbers worse than expected

An article titled Reflation Challenge & Gold by Jim Willie, a goldbug.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1227131103.php

I definitely think the economy is in deflation now, and I don't have much confidence those who are pulling the strings will do anything to reflate before the downward spiral accelerates. Why they gave a ton of money to banks to sit on it I really don't understand, given that they said they were going to sterilize it. That means they took the cash out of the open markets and lent it to the banks, who promptly sat on it or used it to buy other banks instead of lending it out, the effect of which would be to reduce the money supply rather than increase it, I'd think.

STP reported this am. down 20%+. Its really unjust. I think the street is bombing all solars to wipe out individuals for big clients, and they will all run up in 2009.

What do you think happens when our president replaces every other word from "nukoolar" and "evil doers" in exchange for phrases like "Alternative energy" "solar" "wind" and "oil independence" "new energy economy"?

csiq reports tomorrow.

NYUgrad, yep. Holding solars through these times feels like King Lear raging against the storm.

Has anyone ever been in a market where the market cap for a company is less than the cash on its balance sheet?

That's what's happening now.

If you wake up and don't want to smile,
If it takes just a little while,
Open your eyes and look at the day,
You'll see things in a different way.

Don't stop, thinking about tomorrow,
Don't stop, it'll soon be here,
It'll be better than before,
Yesterday's gone, yesterday's gone.

Why not think about times to come,
And not about the things that you've done,
If your life was bad to you,
Just think what tomorrow will do.

Don't stop, thinking about tomorrow,
Don't stop, it'll soon be here,
It'll be better than before,
Yesterday's gone, yesterday's gone.

-C McVie

music to go with the coffee...

We've seen devastation in equities. The question lately has been, and IMO going forward is a basic question of supply and demand. Right now the former outstrips the latter. Will Johnny 401-k play a role in the new bull market? Probably not much. When it comes, if it comes it will be largely an institutional and foreign affair. Johnny K. is sitting on the sidelines with his knee in a bucket of ice. Employment gains, when and if they come will of course favor low-wage nations. Destruction of the American auto and related industries will continue even in the face of an equities recovery.

For stocks, improvement may be around the corner somewhere. MAY BE. For the average American shlub, don't bother pulling out the trumpets and bugles. His place in the new global economy is way too insecure for that.

(did I spell shlub right?)

TCK lots of news this am. dividend suspended, selling assets, etc

Monthly stochastics on the long term SPX charts hit all time low: http://nexalogic.com/spx-sto.jpg, suggesting deeply oversold. Daily and weekly on shorter term charts not at records though.

Also, take a look at the SPX since 1925, shows the magnitude of the drops then, and now (in log scale):

http://nexalogic.com/spx-all.jpg

taking a screenshot of today's marketwatch front page, and saving it for comparison purposes...

any estimate of how much lower it will open today?

TCK
Caisse de depot et Placement du Quebec currently own approximately 7,151,133 shares of TCK assuming they weren't part of the exodus out.

2nd
I don't know-what to think
will closed window to market untill Monday and will not watch or do anything untill monday

First chart link had an extra comma somehow, here's the correct link:

http://nexalogic.com/spx-sto.jpg

Biggest double top I have ever seen SiO2. I think somebody mentioned this a couple days ago. Anyone else care to comment on that LT chart? Does Moore's law apply to stock market crashes?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

$0.7950 US or a bit more will get you $1 CAD today. Buyers went out to lunch at 12:30 yesterday and didn't come back.

Around 26% of stocks trading at 52-week lows on Nasdaq. What sort of levels would this be at in the lows of a bear market?

Vinod,

I doubt you'll be missing anything worthwhile.

Little Erin missed her calling, she should have been a stock salesman.

vinod- even if you plan to stay out, i think you should remain fully engaged in the market action...how else can you track sentiment accurately?

Repost

There was some discussion in the recent past few days on just what energy source could be the solution to replacing oil, coal and fission based energy sources with high cost inputs and environmentally damaging or radioactive outputs.

This is not a new technology, but an outcome of discoveries made in the last 20 years in the chemistry field which actually overlaps nuclear physics.

Watch the short documentary video on this website, and if you have some chemistry and physics background, you will find that the manipulation of the ionization potential in hydrogen. lithium and their tendency to form and reform molecules will generate substantial energy returns in the form of heat discharge:

http://www.blacklightpower.com/

My only criticism here is that these good scientific works, though unassailable scientifically, do not have representation in the public vein, where a speaker can show in plain english how the system works, without jumping around in complex subatomic theory or engineering terminology.

The system requires readily available materials, and a little tinkering and cajoling of properties inherent in the structure of matter to get going, perhaps this is the biggest disappointment. It was there all along, and only required a drill down on the properties of matter which were simply overlooked and did not require massive budgets to realize. But the technology is complex and requires the top knowledge in the field and cannot be boiled down into simple elements.

Like electric car advocates before them, they will simply have to install a working prototype in a car and drive around for years depending on it without refilling their gas tank with fuel or relying on batteries.

Producing motive energy out of this unit will be the obvious challenge. Add: You would have to review the business presentation as well as the technical representation on the website to understand the possibilities.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Crude-oil futures fell for a fifth session Thursday, slumping below $50 a barrel for the first time in more than three years as global stocks tumbled and economic worries deepened.
Crude for December delivery dropped $3.71, or 6.9%, to $49.91 a barrel in early electronic trading. Front-month contracts haven't moved below the $50 level since May 2005. The December futures expire Thursday, adding more volatility to the contract.
Crude has lost 14% in five consecutive sessions.

Crude 50.64 (kitco)
UGA (21.73 -.87) USO (41.64 -1.60) dollars
Buy or Sigh?

Cara 100 Update:

DIS - Price Target Lowered from $30 to $28 @ RBC

vinod- remember your target last summer of $10 for all the large-cap financials? C has exceeded, and BAC is close..

Today COULD, now that we've violated all the previous lows, become an enourmous down day.

doom aside, let's get some skin in the game

what are people looking at buying at what prices, or what are people looking at shorting at what prices...

Si02

Looking at that chart of the S&P 500 you posted, draw horizontal lines across the tops set back in 2000 and 2007, and then another line across the bottom in 2002. The S&P is right at/near those 2002 bottom levels.

Now, since your chart is log scale, take the distance between those 2 lines and draw a 3rd line equidistant lower on the chart. It takes you back to the lows set back in 1994, roughly 435 on the $SPX.

I'm not saying the market necessarily gets there, it's just an interesting chart to consider.

The 10 year U.S. Treasury bond price jumped during the day yesterday and again this morning to lower the yield to 3.18% from 3.47% yesterday morning, bringing to total decline since Monday to ~.55% - a record decline in such a short period in my experience. While there remains a disconnect between the declining 10 year yield and mortgage rates – the rates have certainly improved today. Of course with global stock markets declining massive amounts of new funds are moving to the relative safe haven of Treasuries in the face of a deepening recession and lowered inflation concerns which impair the longer term Treasuries. Happy Trading

Bluebluff,

Death of Equities cover: Could be, but I don't expect a three day resurrection — possibly a dead-cat bounce though.
------------

Skater,

re: jobs report
Seems like typically stupid government report — "larger than expected" losses? "no special factors"?
I wonder what the cost per taxpayer is for this kind of stupid data.
------------

Thriftybob,

They gave it to their buddies and to cover their own involvement in creating this fraud.

------------

2nd - Hendrix's "... bloody footprints ..." lyric last night took the prize. Today? Hendrix or Marley? I think I'll choose Marley and a bloody mary for the day. :)

grim outlook from Bay Area employers:

http://tinyurl.com/5jpsxu

" Four out of 10 Bay Area employers contacted in a survey anticipate cutting jobs within six months, according to a dismal report on the region's business pulse being issued today."

All in all the market has held up under extreme negativity. I predict a green day for everything except commodities. Shorts may get restless.

Chrysler Jeep dealership on South Van Ness closes with no warning:

http://tinyurl.com/5c5spx

spot- thanks for catching my error (footPRINTS is correct)...

2nd,

My mistake on our ESLR bet was not including a low price at which, should it have been hit (3 dollars say) the bet would be won and the book immediately forthcoming.

News on local tv, this morning, said that Asia and European markets fell strongly overnight due to Congress not moving ahead on the US auto bailout ('scuse me - I meeant "relief") bill.

Are you kidding me! Who writes this stuff? Lobbyists must be sending in news copy spin with a nice check. Why not, it works in Congress?

SKF up 120% in 12 trading days.

Wow !

2nd - "footprints" or "hoofmarks", I don't care. You still get the prize, imo.

Enjoy the Sun, today.

"How would anybody expect to make money in the 5-year Treasury yielding 2.09%?"

Because the USD will be deflating @ X %, and so real yield would be X + 2.09

until the US defaults, that is...

RE: Blacklight Power

See Wikipedia - http://tinyurl.com/5zshhm

FWIW, the "Controversy" section, and a brief review of the available literature, indicate caution would be prudent here.

Gold seems to be holding well considering how high the dollar is anymore. When the dollar covering finally ends I expect gold will take off.

They can't add trillions and trillions to the debt and not expect it to eventually have an effect on the value of the dollar, IMO.

SKF seems comfortable in the mid 200's - if it gets to 3's or 400's should we wonder about bank accounts?

Blizzard Outside - I'm going for an indoor skate (Exercise does reduce strezz) - markets should bounce up nicely in my absence...

Bill just called the TOG. Anyone listening?

Does anyone feel that there is no worse to come?
And all expected bad news is price in?
Also is our government intentionally keeping dollar high so we can finance our need
Are we sucking liquidity internationally to finance our need but which indirectly export slowly down around world without even solving our problem?

bought some Nov $2.50 puts on SLW.

maybe we reach 7000 dow today?

this is crazy. where are our leaders? maybe the U.S will be sold to china in 1 big transaction?

where are our leaders? they are out squandering trillions of our tax dollars. I can see no reason why this market shouldn't go lower.

where are our leaders? i guess no one is piloting this plane anymore.

Last night, someone posted that Dollars increase in purchasing value in Deflation until those Dollars are devalued. Actually, it is Inflation that devalues the purchasing value of a Dollar, but DEvaluing can occur in a rather perverse way.

A member of my mother's family did some teaching during the Depression years. She was a state employee, and considered essential, but there was no Dollars in the state treasury; so, she was paid in script (a State IOU for Dollars at a later time) which she then had to trade at a discounted value to locals who had the Dollars.

State scripts might come back in vogue - don't throw those Dollars away yet.

NYUgrad
Not the whole enchilada
But small pieces at a time
Alaska to Russian
Texas to Mexico and we will have to ask Bill if Canadian are interested on anything?

Thanks Todd, roughly like this? http://nexalogic.com/spx-a.jpg

Is now a good time go long SLW with an investment-length timeline (6-month to a year+) to capitalize on the value that Bill's SLW writeup spoke of?

Or has the SIL/SLW story become too uncertain even with a lengthy timeline?

vinod- personally, i think there is worse to come..but i think it occurs a few years out from here, maybe in 3 years or so...

^^^ Rather, SLV not SIL.

What just happened to TCK? Down $1.50 on the TSX.

ESLR now under $2. The decline is inexorable and extreme.

2nd, did you see the article in the Chron today about the local survey that says 4 of 10 Bay Area employers anticipate job cuts within the next six months?

The one bright spot was, you guessed it, companies involved in green technology.

Shark - This schlub has his entire derriere in that bucket of ice. I'm in as deep as my conscience will allow until I see a steady-state 9k DOW.

I love BNN having analysts like the S&P clown who is 'cautioning that the markets may go lower' and 'remain defensive'. Remember this is the same debt rating group that gave you the AAA ratings on Alt-A and Subprime paper. If this isn't the bottom........

[Bill Cara note:

Your comment illustrates why financial services companies must stop wearing multiple hats. S&P have research analysts and they have a debt ratings group. The perception (and perhaps the reality) of conflict of interest is definitely an issue. It's not any different than an auditor doing management consulting, or an agent broker also being a dealer, and on and on.]

ABK flirts with, but does not yet make an "A-up"

ABK definitely wants to rise but is having trouble in this market.

We do not have leaders, we have dictators.
A leader would tell us where they want to take us then we can choose to follow.

When you tell me what's for dinner pookie I never want to hear

"Chicken wings"

See I knew I was misspelling "Schlub":) Rhymes with Shrub.

shark- well, you can't expect to anticipate all contingencies when making a bet (maybe next time you should run it by a lawyer first)...in any case, i'm taking my own advice and starting an LLC next month-> moving ahead on a project that will explore new technology in my profession...at some point i may be flying East; if that happens, i will present you with the book personally; i'll even ask a stranger to commemorate the event with a photo in front of the now infamous westport library...ONLY in the event you win the bet, of course..

Si02

Re: S&P 500 chart

You got it.

Essentially it's one 45% decline, with another on top of it. Yikes !

Bill - Thanks for the TOG reference, I was thinking of rotating out of PM's for a day or two...

I am showing the 2002 low on S&P 500 @ 768.63. I also am seeing the next lowest value taking us all the way back to 4/28/97. Prior to '97, it becomes pretty difficult to evaluate theoretical (or psychological) support levels.

I am seeing stock being sold indiscriminately this morning and S&P has not yet broken that 2002 level.

There is a very real possibility 768 breaks later today, however, if in the face of indiscriminate selling, the 768.63 level does hold, it could be a purely technical reason for a reversal to occur.

abk showing moxy

DRYS at 3.98

Re: Blacklight Power

I would not give any credence to a wikipedia article which opens with a bias against a proven process. Either the thing works, or it doesn't. Why bother with the cultural biases inherent in any system even if the people doing the scoffing are tenured ivory tower types with no patented technology of their own?

The trick I suppose would be to convince the patent office that refuses you, in order to protect the propriety of the methods, which are easily reproducible if you have the technological background.

adding to longs QLD FXI SSO

Looks like BC is making a run again. I would be on board, but I just put my last chips in TBT even though it crashed through a triple bottom. Go TOG....

Corporate executive flying in private corporate jet to D.C. asking for helps from people whose
Election was finance by them using lobbyist. What a show ?.
And scaring us all about union losing 3 million jobs if we do not give them money.
Pirate of the cost of Africa are not only one asking ransom

looking forward to meeting you 2nd.

Vinod your comment about pirates rings true.

America Held Hostage should be the headline.

wollybear1 or anyone,

"Bill just called the TOG. Anyone listening?"

What does that mean?

Si02

If you can, post a log scale chart of the DJIA starting from about 1930 up to the current point.

Draw trend lines across the bottom from 1933 to 1942 to 1982. (1932 was even a bit lower - but it goes below the parallel lines)

Next, draw a parallel line across the tops at the end of 1936, to 1959 to 1965 and on through today.

You'll see that there are very instances where the chart deviated from that perfectly parallel channel.

It also shows that starting at the tail end of 1995, the DJIA broke up through that upward channel and actually used the top trend line as support during 2002.

Now, with the DJIA having broke down into the original long term channel, does that signal a longer term "reversion to the mean", for lack of a better term ?

Is it too late to long DOG?

so some gg, slw and fslr for 2009?

Re: TOG

read today's Daily Report at the homepage about TOG.

Thrifty,

"Comments & Outlook

I think we can finally say that this week represented the Trade of the Generation, which is to Sell bonds and Buy Gold/Goldminers. Today for bonds -- before the close -- could be a major sell.

If there is a trader in the universe who has bought US treasuries for reasons of income rather than panic/safe haven, then there won’t be a second. How would anybody expect to make money in the 5-year Treasury yielding 2.09%? The 10-year yielding 3.39% and the 30-year yielding 3.97% reflect only the ridiculous prices as traders have panicked from other assets.

The $XAU goldminers index hit a high of 209 in March-08. Eight months later, the index was often in the 64 to 72 range. GG yesterday closed at 18.62. In late September it was double that. Within a year, this stock will likely be at least +100% higher than the close yesterday."

SKF up 120% in 5 days - damn, i was having SKF & FXP last week but closed out thinking downside risk is too high.... I bet this is going to be another torture day, closing slightly positive with no firm resolution

I think I will capitulate today with multi $$$$$ losses. Lets see, so far, Bill was 2 months early with his bull market call.

Please, some of the older members here, remind me if he was early with his bear call before the July 2007 top. If he was early, was it 2 months or 2 years? If 2 years, then, I need to sell all that is left and turn short.

Wow. Green. This market is so not-susceptible to being analyzed. All you can do is trade the patterns and prices that are right in front of your eyes, and if you don't like the market, wait a half hour.

gold did not go down, while oil is getting the flush. hmmmm. the other team may be coming back on the field to give the PPT a good second half? the takeout of oil can not be sitting well with the good souled PM Putin.. nor our allies in the Persian Gulf. Maybe they will decide to punt gold back at the dollar? Just a thought.

NYUgrad.. you have no idea what you are talking about. It is spelled 'nukular'.

nibbling on clmt, tbt, and atp.un// a utility yielding 20%??? you have got to be kidding.

US$ index - from 72 to 88 in 4 months

No wonder GLD is down 24% in 4 months ....

ToddinFL - I could only go back 20 years in stockcharts. Where does that reversion in mean point to - 6000? Can you post a chart?

SKF - Distribution zone per Triple RSI time frame.

NYU .. only kidding.. nulkular. And I had you thinking nukular. haha.

Goodbye John Dingell, hello Henry Waxman!!!~ Welcome to the House Energy Chair!!! Just came through on the news.

Opened a position with GG at 17.40, considering Call leap 2010 Jan 35......any thoughts

Shiva

Use Yahoo finance, click on the Dow, choose "basic chart", click on "max" for duration and then use the large chart version.

The file size is too big for me to post it here.

I don't even want to say what the low end of the channel is; I'd probably get banned from the site. lol

dbear

I have the GG Jan 2010 $25 call, bought at $4.2, if you can get it at $4.5-4.7 I think you'll do well...we're going to see a lot between now and then.

Corporate exec. steps off fancy jet dressed in Armani suit and carrying tin cup, arrives to worship specticle of the great and all-knowing Giant Bazooka. Offers 3 million blue-collar jobs in sacrifice and utters the following:

http://gmfactsandfiction.com/

Request Denied!

[Bill Cara note:

I uploaded an ADDENDUM above, which references GM.]

ToddinFL - I will be watching the next high from the current lows, if it makes a lower high, then we can pretty much say a new bear market started in 2001

ToddinFL

In order to draw these long term trend lines, don't you need a chart that shows all DJIA values on an equal scale? Yahoo chart changes scale above DOW 5000. Doesn't that skew your trend line analysis?

Todd- don't worry- you'll only get banned if we get there, and by then, it won't matter...;)

shark_attack
If we closed green, we should have official ceremony to bury this bear in CP’s backyard.

When the move comes, it'll probably be a swoosh up and our resident bears will say I knew that. LOL

"Goodbye John Dingell, hello Henry Waxman!!!~ Welcome to the House Energy Chair!!! Just came through on the news."

Solars rallying meekly on news.

brought some TNA/FAS/BGU/UYG/SSO

I'm running a series of RSI screens. The Bull 2X ETF's are showing accumulation mode. The Bear ETF's are showing distribution. FWIW.

NYUgrad said: "where are our leaders? i guess no one is piloting this plane anymore."

Actually, our "leaders" personally jet-packed away some time ago to their own private jets, and hummed a few bars of "Where ya goin' to go when the volcano blows" as they flew off to their ranches in SA. Ah yes, whocudanoed?

Looks like a total high volume washout on PAY (Verifone). I am taking a chip shot @ 2.80.

Todd, Si02

RE Long term Dow and trends lines. Yes Todd I see what you're talking about. Its a very long term chart, conditions are certainly different over this period. It works till it doesn't, or things could be different this time, how does that saying go.

Anyway here's a chart I thru together, think its what you're talking about.

http://frontenacdesign.com/BC/Charts/LT%20Dow.png

Quasi

Shiva... it points at 6000.. however, it overshot the channel once, in 1982.. if it overshoots like in 1982, look for 4500. This will be happening in about 12 months, if it does.

Will Europe close green? My bet is yes.

Quasi, same question as I posed to Todd.

Doesn't the fact that the ^DJIA values on that chart change scale above the 5000 level skew that trend line?

This is not bash or criticism but an honest question.

Don't you need a chart with an equal scale for all ^DJIA values 0-15,000 to draw a long term trend line?

i'm taking a look at the 3 x ETFs right now. ERX looks interesting. Still trying to figure out how they calc NAV.

also looking to buy UYM for my long term trading account.

SU in Triple RSI accumulation zone, no position. Do your own homework.

bsi87, what's your time frame on the acc/dist charts?

A few questions if anyone has time,..

I sold some puts a month ago that are now in the money and, I imagine, will be assigned tomorrow. Is there anything I need to do, or will the stock be automatically sold to me at the strike price?

If I had sold a covered call (that's now in the money), would the broker just grab the stock?

Lastly, if I had bought the calls or puts will the broker execute those purchases/sales automatically too?

Thanks in advance, Gad.

taeamonfuego - i was thinking about the 3X funds as well. Should they do better than individual stocks if we move up 30% from here?

quasi, todd -
great chart. Look at the volume increases over the last decade. If she goes there could be a lot of force or take a while.

Go find the chimp we rally today.

Nevermind, you just answered, as I was asking.

Glum glum glum....

Yesterday the Starbucks berista in So. Cal. said that business is actually pretty good. Was very slow two weeks ago but is back.

Costco was packed the other day and I was there right at the 5-5:30 after work rush, and it was a doozy. I've shopped COST since 1989 so i have an idea how it is...

My escrow agent said he was busy in October and had a big increase in business.

Stopped at In N Out Burger last night for a bite of the evil stuff. The drive through was backed into the main blvd and the place was packed.

Chicken Little reported sky is falling.

Bright light in Eastern sky scares minority groups in sector R. (for you Firesign Theatre fans).

Shiva, here is the link to the chart.. the log of the market averages going back to Colonial times..

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7116.html

Todd, this is the analysis that you have been riding. Please give credit to Paul Lamont, where it is due.

Calvino - whats different this time is the drop so far has been almost vertical..... I dont think we will see the bottom of the market in a straight shot, it will pull back up to some level and fall again in the next 12 to 18 months.

thanks... daily report wasn't out when i started reading here

TA question:
Some changes were made recently to the Dow and the S&P500. Does it matter when doing the TA? What impact does that have when looking at long time frames?

Sorry, Barista. Saw a Barista action figure at my local coffee shop the other day. They are super heroes to some....

from Mike Kahn's blog.

When measuring downside targets, especially for large patterns, I switch to log scaled charts and project physical distance, not price, down from the break point.

This is still apocalyptic but at least it has a chance to be valid. A drop like this one would erase 21 years of gains and bring spoos to their August 1987 peak.

Craig

discounters like WMT and COST are doing comparatively well in recession, just like fast foods like MCD. On the other hand, try to go to a big ticket store (any furniture store) or Home Depot / Lowes and see how things are over there. No mas.

Billy Sundance

Log charts are typically used over arithmetic charts because they reflect percentage moves as opposed to point moves.

5,000 to 10,000 = 100% move (5000 points)

10,000 to 15,000 = 50% move (5000 points)

Triple RSI time frames 7 days, weeks, months.

Cara 100 Update (Final):

UTX - target cut at Credit Suisse to $51 from $63. Expects business and general aviation market to decline 8%-12% in FY 2009. Maintained Outperform rating

Todd - thanks for the reply. I appreciate your posts.

Calvino said:

"Todd, this is the analysis that you have been riding. Please give credit to Paul Lamont, where it is due."

I've never heard of that guy or that blog. I simply look at various charts over different time frames and found the one on the DJIA to give an interesting long term view.

And I'm certainly not "riding", as you put it, one simple chart of the DJIA as the way to project potential target areas.

It is but one of many things I look at and consider.

Id have to think that FCX and CHK are getting close to accumulate, tho' they're not Cara 100 listed. On second thought, I have enough commodities-related stocks. No position in either - just watching em.

re: Buffett

from Optionmonster.com
"Warren Buffett may still be the Oracle of Omaha, but he may be losing his title of richest man in the world now that his company's stock is down 50 percent in just two months.

Berkshire Hathaway's shares, which have famously never been split, hit a low of $74,100 today after trading as high as $147,000 as recently as mid-September. The drop may have something to do with Buffett's put sales on the world indexes.

Goldman Sachs has also hit a new low, getting down as low as $49 today after being climbing as high as $180 in August. Buffet made a $5 billion investment in Goldman at a critical juncture for the company in what was widely considered an exceptionally sweet deal.

We know that Buffett won't have any real gains or losses on his put sales until at least 2015. But he sold them when volatility was very low and the S&P 500 was up above 1200, so the paper losses have got to be enormous.

Now we are hearing through the grapevine that Buffett did the trade with Goldman Sachs, and wasn't obligated to put up any collateral. As this position creates greater paper losses, and Berkshire is facing a cut on its high credit rating, the company and Goldman may have to put up that collateral on the trade. This might apply pressure on both stocks, and it may be a downward spiral that will be difficult to curtail."

Gad, each broker may act differently, best to ask them. Best to buy back those puts, commissions are usually smaller this way. They can really charge high commissions otherwise, adding insult to injury.

Craig,

As part of the economy suffers, other parts can be expected to benefit (costco a good example).

As for demand at in n out burger, perhaps a few of your neighbors were struck by a sudden and abiding attack of the munchies:)

Thanks for posting that chart Quasi. That's the one I have been looking at, only I use the larger version of the chart.

Christmas in Houston, On-The-Ground, report: It took me 3 days to get my dad's computer over to the Apple store because traffic was so high at the mall I had to circle and circle and circle, looking for parking. The first two days, I gave up, the third, I just parked in the next county, and carried it over! There is no slowdown here, from what I can tell. Gasoline is at 1.55 at the pump, and dropping.

My 401 K is screaming for me to look at CVX and JNJ yielding 4%.....what will be their yield at these prices in 10 years??

Vinod,

I'm looking forward to having some champagne and oysters up in Wellfleet. Maybe when 2nd comes to visit with my book we can blast up there in the party cruiser and you get the fire going.

PAY - out @ 3.40

writersblock -
I second the Houston area situation. Went to Baybrook Mall Saturday and the parking lot was overflowing. Filled up the CR-V for under $20 and started looking around wondering where and when I was.
Definitely no slow down in Houston, and I'm not sure anyone's thinking about one yet either.

Long-term charts: I look at this also (use S&P 500 generally). Difficulties with these long-term views - no inclusion of dividends - no compensating for inflation / deflation - no compensating for bond yields (the primary alternative to equity risk).

I need to figure out how to create a view that allows me to see a more thorough picture of the investment landscape over time....

Dave

SOUNDS REAL GLUM BOTH HERE ON THIS BLOG AND ON THE TALKING HEADS.......CAN THIS THING CAPITULATE BETWEEN NOW AND FEB, 2009?

GS at the bottom of its short term (3 weeks)trend channel, and also at the bottom of its intermediate channel (11 weeks) that goes back to early September of this year.

BTW, that's not a recommendation for GS by me.

Just an observation ...

Joanne Hruska on BNN right now.

Gold is approaching the $750 level for the second time today; silver is down but silver miners are flat.

Tempted to buy some TCK here down 20% on the day. 1X earnings at the moment, but even if earnings came in at 2004 levels, this thing is only at 3X earnings including a plan to pay back the debt and hopefully reinstate the dividend at some point a year from now. With a two to three year time frame, this seems like a no-brainer. What am I missing?

dbear - I capitulated ...
- am now 100% long the market (S&P & NDX100)
- just bought a condo this morning (my best estimate 50 cents on the dollar of real market value)

I've been waiting for a moment like this to put money to work. Here it is! I consider this moment in time a gift to those who have been responsible and are willing to grab the brass ring.

Dave

ptf - what would the debt load be if their earnings go negative? do they have any loan covenants that would be breached? when is their debt due? those are the questions i would be asking before stepping in.

DaveB- congrats on the condo!

Regarding the long term chart, I've been wondering about that too. Does Yahoo or some other free charting service provide chart with ticker division? I know stockcharts.com does, but it only goes to 3 years back.

I'd like to do something like $SPX:$CRB (index normalized by commodity index) for 20 year time span or more.

Paul

I will take into account your reports of good activity in Houston. I'd like to know foot traffic versus sales figures, but they're not telling.

This kind of info flow is one of the awesome things about the net. It's why governments get control of it, it such a potentially potent weapon in the war for democracy.

thanks 2nd - it's a foreclosed property. In a GREAT location and in great condition - appears that the previous buyer lost his employement and was foreclosed in June 08 - I made a lowball offer that was accepted - wrote a check this am.

This is my way of recouping my share (as a US taxpayer) of the gov't TARP.

Dave

Corner Stone, I was at Memorial City Mall. Traffic on the freeways is still, er, robust, to say the least. Also, on side streets, and in the local strip malls, though not as robust as the mall. Sharkie, from the number of people carrying shopping bags in the mall, I would say sales are good, too. Will let you know when I have to get exasperated, waiting in line to make a purchase. That will truly be the signal to go long-er! Apple store was full, even though I was in there on a week day, before school was out for the day.

Does anybody follow KWK (Quicksilver Resources) - an energy company. Stock in mid 4s right now - I am thinking anything between 4 and 5 is solid buy and hold for 12 months. Any thoughts?

ABK was only up like 25-30 percent or so when I called it this morning. Now it's up 90 percent.

Is anyone thinking of picking up some POT at these levels(57.71). I like typing that.

Re: Edumacation On Gold

What's so great about gold? Edumacate me.

Ok, I will, but just this once.

""So is gold money ?

The idea sacred to the maddest gold bugs that gold should be the world’s only universal money is wrong, simply because of the sums which prove that either at the small (coinage) end or at the large (bank payments) end there has to be an alternative form of money based on something else. History also shows them to be wrong - although not everywhere and not all the time.

The historical records show that gold is doomed only to repeat its temporary and peripheral role. But it is, nonetheless, a vital role. When it comes back, it makes its owners the richest people around. We need a grasp of the history of money to see how this works."

http://www.galmarley.com/index.htm

These comments were committed to the web during the run-up in Gold bullion prices in the 2002 - 2003 time frame. A review on the history of gold will provide some insights. Especially how credit derivatives and swaps seems awfully like hickory sticks split in half used in the 16th century, or that the banking sector appears to some degree like John Law's banking system.

Natural gas may have had it last inventory injection this week. Price went down a bit after the numbers were released, to too much. Time for the TOS (Trade of the Season) may be close, assuming markets keep operating more or less normally. Do your DD...

BillySundance, Norm

Log vs linear chart scaling, same as what Todd said, I'll just expand a little.

I posted some ideas on this subject last month, link below. Basically long term I like to look at the rate of change on the price action. On a long term linear chart, the price action is exponential (parabolic) when the rate of change is constant, ie; say 10% every year. On a long term log chart, the price action is a linear (straight line) when the rate of change is constant. It's just much easier to see changes in the trend, hard to tell when an exponential curve changes, but easy to see if a straight line changes.

Oct post link. with sample charts linear vs log and long term Dow chart which was being discussed at the time.

http://tinyurl.com/5tymd5

Norm,

Agree the volume is interesting on long term charts, but I look at it this way, things are different now. Prior to say about 1980 it was buy and hold, Buffet style. If you wanted to buy or sell, you called your broker and made an appointment in a day or two to go in, discuss it and then sign the forms, the trade took place within a few days. With Tech bubble and the internet things started to change late 90's, to the point we are at now with hedge funds day trading billions in stocks and ETF's, often stocks turn over the entire float in a day, things are different now.

Of course all of the above is just me opinion and subject to change without notice.

Quasi

The last time I went to Wal-Mart on a weekend (2 weeks ago), I was reminded why I normally go during the week. Monday I went during daylight hours and was reminded why going late night is best. I have seen no reduction in price for any of my favorite foods.

DELL now trading below $10 for the first time since June 1997.

Log vs Linear charts

looks like that last Tiny URL to the old post was truncated, try this one.

http://tinyurl.com/5loafw

Quasi

put a flyer out on C...$7.50 Nov calls

FatrtyArbuckle,

You got it on the Ts! You don't need to buy & hold them —trade.
--------------

NYUgrad,

Pilots? Bernanke replaced Greenspan, but trained in the same flight school. Paulson, one of the subprime architects is now at the controls and doing loops and rolls to distract from other tricks being used to cover all those asses in D.C. and N.Y.

This afternoon's op-ex unwind should be a historic event.......

Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
3 Month 0.01 0.03 0.15 1.02
6 Month 0.42 0.61 0.89 1.54
2 Year 0.97 1.06 1.23 1.60
3 Year 1.18 1.32 1.61 1.25
5 Year 1.95 2.02 2.42 2.64
10 Year 3.19 3.32 3.86 3.73
30 Year 3.78 3.91 4.36 4.21

10 year treasury in ONE WEEK from 3.86 to 3.19 - this is a rare opportunity - Bill's TOG ready to go IMO

Dave

4 out of 5 expiration friday
market goes up

Bill,

re: ADDENDUM

My problem is I have been worried since 1993 (NAFTA) although I first began to see the effects here of globalization of U.S. jobs in mid 1980s.

The current unemployment here is at 10.5%. As of several years ago we had lost over 10,000 jobs in a city of 150,000 — don't know if it is higher, but must be since several other mfg facilities are completely gone now.

I guess our claim to fame is this whole area was early into this briar patch.

About two nights ago I had a dream where I was at the local Home Depot and the place was almost completely empty. All the wood was all gone, the shelves were bare, and some of the shelves were actually gone.

At the checkout, I asked the clerk how long they would be open. She told me that within 3 days they would have sold everything possible and close the doors.

Why do I dream this stuff ? Only God knows ...

DIS showing some strength!

Todd,

I'd be more inclined to respect and trade on your dream than I would the opposite.

Many of my stock dreams have come true usually that day.

Bill just called the TOG. Anyone listening?

Posted by: woolybear1 at November 20, 2008 10:05 A

I don't see it. When did he post it?

"4 out of 5 expiration friday
market goes up"
Posted by: vinod at November 20, 2008 12:31 PM

vinod- remember the relationship between market direction the thursday before the week of opex and market direction the day of opex? i can't even remember how the market closed last thursday...(and where do they come up with these things?)...

someone asked a few days ago about a decent place to park cash-> based on SiO2's call above, HNU.to might be a good bet...

auto loan agreement reached

Rumor is out that GM is getting bailed out; stock reversed and is up 15% now

There seems to be rising interest in gold, I don't expect this to last too long though.

Todd- did you catch my earlier link to the SF Chronicle- that 'dream' came all too true for the employees of the Jeep dealership on Mission and Van Ness..

shark_attack

About 4-6 months ago (I think, it's been awhile), I actually had a dream about the dollar. In my dream, I could see a chart of the dollar and it was going straight down (and I got to see the exact price too !).

I read somewhere, maybe in one of Jack Schwager's books about traders having dreams about the markets and how it helped them trade.

Todd maybe you were just dreaming about next summers Hurricane season.

Yeah, I saw that link 2nd_ave.

One of my friends in the construction industry called me this morning and told me he got laid off, that he's been looking in the local paper for jobs but they're aren't any to be had.

can someone send a link to the auto bailout?

if so i will closeout my shorts and get ready to reset (WFC, PNC). may go long RIG, GG on the turn...

if you guys need a solid laugh, check this video out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5j4McFzies

bobbyo

Maybe you're correct. Maybe my seasons are off.

Speaking of hurricane season, one of the major employers in my area is a manufacturer of windows and doors (PGTI), and specializes in impact glass which meets the strict hurricane housing codes for Florida.

The company came public back in 2006 at $14, got as high as $18 and change, and now sits just above $1.

They've already had several rounds of layoffs, restructured some of their long term debt, but it looks like they'll have to cut even more employees to survive.

is C going to 0? my gosh, some of these numbers are getting silly....and the option premiums seem to be at once in a lifetime levels...

Auto deal
http://tinyurl.com/5w75wq

Where is my bailout?

ToddinFL re: PGTI

They make a product called EZE-Breeze - a wonderful system for creating a "nine-month" room out of a patio area.

I've been planning to buy their product for two covered decks at one of our lake homes. The thing holding me back was the price of $4200 for the materials from PGT. I'm gonna re-contact the distributor in my area and see if they're interested in reducing pricing yet.

I'll keep an eye on PGT in the future.

Dave

How low can silver go before they stop production? $6?

[Bill Cara note:

Silver is invariably a metal that is not mined separately so the accounting for it could be handled as a by-product.]

DaveB

PGT serves what I would refer to as the "middle of the market" in their sector. That EZE Breeze line is indeed pretty nifty, as their are a lot of upscale homes in FL that are tailored to varying conditions of the weather.

Looking at windows, Marvin Windows makes a top notch product for the impact glass market.

they're* are a lot ...

Man I hate not being able to edit my typos.

[Bill Cara note:

Well, the more I edit, the sloppier people get, which would lead to the more I need to edit... Maybe there is a solution with the new system that we are testing for release later in the month.]

Grym - Perhaps Hillary will tend to foreign affairs while Bill concentrates on his domestic affairs.