Turbulence was rife during the past week as more data pointed to the world economy facing a longer and more intense downturn than feared. Global stock markets were beset by angst and plunged by more than 6% in the case of the MSCI Word and Emerging Markets indices, with the only safe havens being the US dollar, developed-market government bonds and gold bullion.

Stock markets are caught between the actions of central banks, governments and the IMF frantically fending off a total economic meltdown on the one hand, and a worsening economic and corporate picture on the other. This situation has a “no-man’s-land” feel to it. By all means try to play a possible year-end rally, but be cognizant that, failing further technical and fundamental evidence, you are trading against the primary trend. Caution is warranted.

Read all about this in my weekly “Words from the Wise”

[Bill Cara note:

I believe that with Prieur's post today most everybody in this community understands that he doesn't even read this blog, but has an automated system or a lackie do his marketing-focused posting for him. You, folks, are thinking what I am thinking. Intellectual deceit is a disgusting thing. I eliminated the links and will now ban him. If any of you want to read his regurgitations, he makes it easy to find; but you won't find them here anymore.]

Good morning,

All these bad news, and the fact that some of the indices already show tripple bottom formations are to me a buy signal.

I have been buying equities for me and for our Clients who can hold the paper for the mid-term since last week.

Have a great day.

Cheers!

Re FSLR. Great company and bellwether for the solar industry.

Might be a bumpy week for all solars as 5 companies report.

Tue - ReneSola
Wed - Trina Solar, LDK Solar
Thu - Suntech Power
Fri - Canadian Solar

RE: Prieur, no doubt about it. It won't end.

Later, Prieur.

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

MCD - Upgraded to Buy @ UBS

DIS - Downgraded to Hold @ Soleil

WFMI - Price Target Lowered from $10.50 to $7 @ Friedman Billings

-------------------------------------------------

Some Monday morning blues:

http://tinyurl.com/6mpysp

On prieur, you are right-on Bill. The guy may have some good points, but he's a leach and lacks good ethics. he obviously could care less about you and your blog. Anyone who wants to follow him can go to his site.

I like the addition of First Solar (FSLR), Bill. Stock prices for companies in this industry are going through a rough patch right now. But I still believe alternative energy will help lead the charge out of this recession.

And as for Bloomburg, get a load of this:

http://tinyurl.com/68cnga
The gist of this item is that now even insider buying is viewed as a negative for the market. Here's a quote from the article:

“Everyone’s drinking the Kool-Aid,” said Michael Levine, a money manager at New York-based OppenheimerFunds Inc., which oversees $160 billion. “These guys know their companies better than the market, so they think they’ll be right. But the economic slowdown has happened much more quickly and has been much deeper than people expected.”

Wow! Bloomburg compares buying now to back in March of this year, when the S&P was significantly higher.

I just don't buy their argument here. The article tries to convince readers that buying stock in your own company means that officers of companies don't see an opportunity. Even though now, in November of 2008, shares in their own company are trading at multi-year lows.

Something rotten is afoot.

too funny...we've been reading automated blog mail..

There we go, Toto pulls the curtain back on Pieur.....pay no attention to the automated blog spammer behind the curtain...

Re: Solar

Still believe that solar depends largely on an inflationary model and a permanently higher oil price. The $WTIC monthly chart is showing a technical break of a long term monthly trend. It could be a test, but since the price level is a very important one, I assume that the outlook would be that the oil price mania is over.

A collapse in the oil markets could be the start of new developments in the energy sector and mark the end of the oil era. Not too co-incidentally, uranium has gone through a very similar mania recently, and may also mark the end of the "fission" energy. Its all the more ironic if you consider that the atomic era, the harbinger of the future, is largely driven by the oil sector. Coal has had a long history in producing energy, so I doubt that both oil and uranium will fall into total disuse.

The monthly $WTIC chart in Yen has not yet breached its own long term trend, which I was surprised to find out. I guess you would have to look at everything in terms of Yen, since its unexpected rise. Much of the activity of the markets in terms of Yen is being overlooked, I'm certain that the collapses in Japanese credit markets are every bit as dire as the rest of the world, and has as much of an effect on markets as those of Wall St.

If you look at the technological advance of the internet, the ability to distribute computing operations over a very large network is probably the way things are going to go. We have a very finely distributed financial sector, but at its centre, still depend on a consolidating monopoly of commercial banks. Perhaps that too will change. I can see solar as being a viable part of a distributed energy production network.

Seeking Alpha article on TBT and SBT, suggesting now is time to accumulate for TOG
http://tinyurl.com/5ere2d

Are we going for more decentralized power?
Some of the newer technologies are installed on-site like hydrogen/solar/gas turbine/wind/geothermal. This bypasses some power grid infrastructure which may be a reason these will compete favorably with fossil fuels/uranium. People want independence and reliability. The 12kw stand alone LP generator at Costco got my attention.

If I was Kaimu's neighbor I wouldn't need it, but it's not quite as balmy 6 mos of the year here as in Hawaii....

ToddinFL- thank you, always appreciate your thoughtful counterpoints to my comments...

silver bouncing off a drop at the NY open...

[Bill Cara note:

All this shrill negative crapola from Bloomberg TV this morning is going to help people part with important holdings. Don't! I believe that what's going on here is an attempt to drive the market to a low from where it can bounce, hopefully reversing the trend. I think that by noon the bad start to the week will be over and prices will be higher. The more important hour will be the closing one.]

Bill, your writings about Paulson and his cronies during this historic time have been interesting and illuminating. I think Obama is good at taking in a variety of views before he acts, but I'm concerned that the perspective you have, which is shared by many, won't get through to him. I don't think markets are his forte, so I imagine there's a lot of interference and jockeying to fill his head with a particular view of history; how we got here, how we should get out. I hope you'll consider using whatever connections you might have to get your views across to those who might listen.

[Bill Cara note:

There are people who follow this blog who apparently have the Pres-elect's ear. As for me; I am really apolitical -- I just call things the way I see them. I am a trader, not an activist. I put out strong opinions and hope to receive feedback and strong alternative opinions in return. That process keeps me grounded, which I need to be to trade effectively.]

Drink coffee? Use broadband at your local SBUX?

Cara discount of the day. Starbucks gift cards at Costco. 5 - $20 cards, 79.99 or a 20% discount over cash. No change, no tips, rechargeable, but it's better to buy more discounted cards.

Same for calling cards....it's 15% less to buy a new card vs recharging.

Disclosure: No COST; small position in SBUX.

Re Solar,

In my mind, the issue of solar is related with what will the US do with its suburbia.

In post WW2 the US decided to change its territorial development by creating "the sprawl", and creating suburbia. Soldiers coming back from the war were given suburban houses, and later on the suburb was sold to the masses as the american dream come true.

The drivers for the development of suburbs were cheap oil, heavy lobbying in DC by the big 3 automakers, and easy credit.

In itself, the suburb is very inefficient from an energetic standpoint, as it implies multiplication of cars, and the development of infrastructures which basically replicate many times over the ones existing in the city.

Further, most of these suburbs occupy land which could be given agricultural use instead, and thereby wasting even more resources.

The plunge in housing along with a peak in the ammounts of credit were a problem for the suburban dream.

So what could be next?

Well, apparently the US is ready to fight to maintain this development model:

- The FED is going for an almost zero interest rate policy

- The big three will be bailed out

- "recent events" in energy and currency markets are effectively reducing the cost of living in US suburbs.

So, if the US choice is to "save suburbia", then the next logical step is to expand solar energy, and provide the credit needed to equip suburbia with it.

That is the reason why I see the entry of First Solar in the Cara 100 list a very good idea.

Cheers!

number2son,

From the link:
“It’s always bullish when the insiders are buying because they believe in the fundamentals of the company and think the valuations make no sense,” said Green, director of research at Penn Capital Management in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, which oversees $3 billion. “This market could go up very, very quickly, and if you’re not in it you’ll miss it.”

Could be, but maybe not.
First, I don't know if Mr. Green owns a bunch, has recommended it to clients at a much higher price or any of a number of extenuating circumstances. the same goes for other opinions in the article on either side of the argument.

I checked GE and found Immelt bought at market — that's encouraging.

Best Buy's most recent buys were undisclosed at what price — that's means less.

A few years ago when I sold my shares in a client's company, the CFO told me I was foolish and that he was buying. I told him if I were able to buy at less than one third market price, I would do so also.

In my case I not only paid full price, but also a commission. He did neither. Another factor — his salary, bonus and perks were about 15 times what I made per year. He could afford to wait.

As a born skeptic and recent member of the cynic class, I don't accept a whole lot of what I get from media of any kind at face value. Look for the unmentioned.

Foz- i would neither underestimate nor overestimate the influence of this blog...the collective impact of this blog will make an impression that each of us individually would be unable to (and beyond the comments that end up being expressed in print, there must be hundreds of thousands of verbal discussions of these ideas by readers with others in their daily lives)...further, those of us on this blog represent only a small cross-section of the international tide of discontent with the Fed-> i only need to broach the subject of the market when at work to learn that people generally have a good grasp of what went wrong and what needs to be done...I think Obama gets the picture..

Cara 100 Update:

Downgrades:

DELL - downgraded at Merrill from Buy to Neutral. $13 price target. Expect a sharp downturn in the PC market, with a lack of near-term catalysts.

TGT - downgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight. See increasing concerns over sales softness and credit card exposure, and note decelerating same-store sales trends. Price target lowered to $34 from $46

Numbers Cut:

ADBE - numbers cut at Merrill. Shares now seen reaching $35. Estimates also lowered through 2010 to reflect a weak economic outlook. Buy rating.

another weak start in the Nasdaq on tap...here's to a rally this week...

i'm all in but if i had more cash i would be buying BIDU right here at sub $160. this is now trading at about 22 times next years earnings. this is the fastest growing mid cap i know of.

I don't get it. If the dow is destined to go up 3,000 plus points before Christmas, why worry about missing the first 300 to 500?

"FDA to open China offices after product scares- AP "

Someone believes trade with China will continue/increase? Is this a day late and a dollar short, or part of a smokescreen? Since when has our government demonstrated ability concerning economic foresight?

tango6- what if you miss the first 1500?

Thanks, Grym. Good points.

The CFO of Evergreen Solar bought shares in his company in late summer of 2007 at $7.50 at market. The stock reached a high of $18 or so by year end and now the stock is trading at $3. He has held those shares throughout that swing.

And yet neither he nor his colleagues in the executive suite are buying now at these levels.

Go figure.

and what if the first 1500 occurs in one day?

"Might be a bumpy week for all solars as 5 companies report."

The report last week from JA Solar (JASO), based in mainland China, was a real downer. Yet now is the time to pick out the wheat from the chaff, as Bill has done with his pick of FSLR.

BA - good news. Might be a good trade. Its up in a down maket.
Disclosure: I have purchased BA

Su is also up on a down market.
Time to buy ?

there is another solar company in U.S that is private, NanoSolar. they are bringing the economics of printing to solar.

With their patent Nanosolar can print on thin alum sheets, nano particles that convert sunlight to energy. Both Google founders were initial investors. Company has real revenues and closed another round recently.

wish i had the loot to invest in oportunities like this.

http://www.nanosolar.com/articles.htm

2nd

I doubt it will happen that way but even if so, you still have 1500 to go and you are then trading with the trend. Buy now? That's what used car dealers say ... "because at these prices this bargain won't last long." Bah humbug.

Shark - You caught my interest in ACD system. Guess you saw V.Gaither's comments and support for that type of system.

If you haven't already seen it, take a look at the 5min chart this morning for TLT. I see a range breakout possible ACD trade. Would you trade it and how?

Good luck.
=================
2nd
"and what if the first 1500 occurs in one day?"

No big deal, it'll just fall 1750 the next day. :)

RE: BIDU

Drawing simple trend lines starting from the beginning of September of this year, the lower trend line would be hit this week between $142-$150, depending on what day it touches the trend line.

Still holding DRYS. Acting well in a bad tape.

Todd - It traded down to $145 so it looks like it has hit that trend line. I would be a big buyer of this stock right now.

tango6- LOL..used car dealers? yes, it's hard to bargain successfully with someone who knows all about the the hidden defects...

spot- well, of course that's why i would be taking profits on a +1500 day...

teamonfuego said:

"i'm all in but if i had more cash i would be buying BIDU right here ..."

teamonfuego, I mention your post not in any way to single you out or pick on you, merely to demonstrate an example of what I posted earlier this morning in the prior thread.

When we plow everything into the market (and don't hold some cash) we can miss opportunities to pick up stocks that we'd like to trade.

I'm not saying that I necessarily agree with TOF's premise that BIDU is a buy right here, simply that having some cash on hand to buy stocks that we find attractive is something to consider.

LOL! It's just like dealing equities.

We have carfax now, pretty cool tool. Also the internet. I bought my truck (used) by finding it online, did the carfax report and since it was online we knew it had been on the lot, a repo through Boeing.

We walked in with cash money, made an offer $5500 under bluebook (out the door including tax, license, etc) and walked out when it was rejected. As we started our car to leave there was a tap on the glass of my driver's window....

"It's been on the lot a while (we knew that) so you have a deal."

You must be willing to walk away.

Hey spot.

TLT is too thinly traded for me, it's only done 41k shares so far today. Not enuff vol.

GM has made an A-up today, I am waiting to see it correct some.

Spot do you know the ACD system well?

dear gang,

whats happening in gold is classic stuff.
small upward spikes that are lost immediately followed by consolidations then plunges into the market open.

couple that with gold miners falling more than the broad market and we have continuing poor performance of both, with nothing to really suggest a brighter short-term future other than the hope that the recent "triple bottom" will hold.

gold needs to begin its ascent and do so quickly otherwise we may be probing $690 again soon.
theres too much bad news but theres too much contrarian thinking trying to buy these bottoms that we keep moving back down. imho.

i see nothing that suggests a turn around in the JR market, and im growing increasingly worried about the prospects for the majors, considering these pie in the sky estimates of how well Goldcorp would do in the event of $500 gold or whatever the low number was is interesting considering it lost as much as it did from $900 gold to $680 gold. we may blame market conditions more than anything else, but ask yourself what type of market conditions would there be should we have $500 gold, and how do you really think the gold stocks will do during that fall in price? will they hold up the same way many thought they would during market down turns?

until gold makes an aggressive move up, i am not liking the miners action.

Speaking of trend lines, DELL hit its upper trend line on Friday. The lower trend line is back below $9.

Todd - I do have cash but it is waiting to clear in one of my accounts...it will be cleared by Wednesday. It's a matter of timing more than anything. I do agree, though, that it's smart to have cash at all times.

Craig

There will be more stories like yours regarding vehicles, but especially trucks. Prices have to come down in order to move the inventory.

Bill,

With todays Citi layofs on top of all the other ones and those to come, all things considered, this really does strike me as being the end of an era on Wall Street.

I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW HOW TO CONTACT MR CARA REGARDING MANAGING SOME OF MY FAMILY'S WEALTH. I CANNOT SEEM TO FIND THE CONTACT INFORMATION ON THIS SITE.

REGARDS, DBEAR

try bill [at] caratrading.com

No doubt Todd. It's a buyers market. We bought a few years ago but the game is the same. I believe we call it hardball in this country...:>)

Re: Gold

Looking for a low this week, though we may have already seen it.

Notwithstanding the fundamentals for gold are overwhelmingly in favour of a firm price. Low yields, collapsing currencies, status quo G20 meeting, commodities rout, the revival of investor demand, I could go on.

There is a good deal of physical selling on the LME, so I presume that some central bank outside of the agreement is taking the opportunity to sell at a bottom.

I wonder just how taxpayers would react if they hear the public trust is being sold at less than favourable prices for maintaining the status quo for some obligation they themselves have no understanding and would never enter into.

Governments sell at the bottom, probably because they need to defray the costs of maintaining the notional value of CDO's by bailing out CDS's. As always during these massive lengthy corrections in gold, we hear eventually, that some central bank had been selling.

Or, it could be that the whole CDO/CDS financial structure rests on a house of cards, such as a naked short position well in excess of gold supply, with absolutely no hope of ever covering for a higher price.

Over to you, dr. cosa!

ALOHA !!

WOW ... look at those CITI job cuts ... 53,000! That means a lot less tax revenues for OBAMA'S government and a lot more unemployment benefits and food stamps and welfare! Shuffling paper ... IT WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T! When in the SF Bay area my wife worked for Bank America and she still has job pals she keeps in contact with. Some of them are so depressed they haven't even considered looking for work and its been six months or more since they were employed! People got so wrapped up in their jobs until their JOBS WERE THEM! Now it is as if they have no identity now that they are jobless. I imagine that would be a major factor for jobless HB&B types. Now they will know what its like to sink or swim, like the rest of us ... I personally changed jobs and careers many times during my lifetime and have been able to adapt. More than anything else I think parents should teach their kids to be "adaptable" and think on their feet ... running and all! My father was a geophysicist for 45 years with Chevron about 40 of those years. That type of employment is gone. It is rare that kind of stability will survive. I also believe that the CONSUMER mentality of America is gone forever as well. Any chink in the World Reserve Currency armor will seal the deal!

Why should solar development in America depend on high oil prices? What sort of mentality is that? That type of mentality is the same CONSUMER mentality that has been pervasive all my life. What's next? Oils down lets buy ESCALADES and EXPLORER SUVs again?

When I first moved to Australia in 1971 they had solar on the roof of the house I lived in! The house was built in 1890 but it had been modernized with solar equipment and the solar was passive and worked beautifully! Solar is only new to Americans!

What will happen to SUBURBIA? Well, that concept is definitely tied to CHEAP OIL and CHEAP OIL for America is tied to our privileged position as World Reserve Currency and EMPIRE! I personally would not count on a community designed to use as much oil as possible to survive! Its a community based on maximum oil consumption and unlimited oil supply ... I don't know ... is that a flaw? In my opinion you either have to go CITY or go COUNTRY, but very few suburban areas will survive intact unless jobs are based there and not just MALL JOBS! A couple suburbs come to mind that could survive like THE WOODLANDS in Houston,TX and BISHOP RANCH in Danville, CA. Both of those suburban areas have major offices for global oil companies and the suppliers of those companies as well as banking, but even there if those offices are closed then the bets off!

I chose Hawaii for the year round mild weather and the abundant food and water. The whole World can collapse and the basics will always be available here independent of the three day supply chain! Remember Katrina? Three days is as long as the supply chain lasted. Three days! Even WALMART and OPRAH beat FEMA to the punch ... Is our government, that is suppose to care for our needs from the cradle to the grave, preparing for shortages or are they preparing for riots? My best guess is that they are spending more money preparing for riots than food and water convoys. What is FEMA doing now? The US military is deploying in America right now! Best not depend on FEMA ...

I wonder if utilities will experience part supply issues like GM is? Think about it. Utilities had to expand to cover the housing boom as well, so it makes sense that as homes are abandoned that infrastructure will not receive enough revenues to keep the lights on indefinitely. When housing expands and collapses there is a domino effect and utilities are definitely part of that domino. Some people may be forced into solar and wind!

BIG GOVERNMENT will NOT give you advanced notice of any pending utility or supply emergencies. Its the same notice you will get that Bear Stearns employees and Cramer got!

IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T ...

Dr Cosa,

My ideas on gold have been right on. To all those who presumed that bailing out every hot dog cart and scam-bank across the land was going to weaken the dollar and strengthen gold, welcome to the perverse "real" world. I have my own pet theories as to why gold fails to perform as an alterna-currency, primary of which is simply that there's not enuff of the stuff to supplant our monetary system. Also, gold's been compromised by the same forces of specualation and bust that the other assets have. Also to be considered is the idea that gold is not convertible except by exchanging it sooner or later for fiat currency, which will probably forever cause gold's value to be supressed as it is tied to the artificial value of a phony measure of wealth. In other words, all the forces that are supportive of the dollar represent weakness for gold.

"Bill Cara note:

There are people who follow this blog who apparently have the Pres-elect's ear. As for me; I am really apolitical -- I just call things the way I see them. I am a trader, not an activist. I put out strong opinions and hope to receive feedback and strong alternative opinions in return. That process keeps me grounded, which I need to be to trade effectively.]"

Reminds of a story about a young umpire an experienced umpire and an old umpire. (baseball that is).

The young umpire says, "I call them as I sees them."

The experienced umpire says, "I call them as they are."

The old umpire says, "They ain't until I call them."

Mmmmm...senility coming on for me I think...

Bill thanks for the week in review # 46... excellent as always

Interesting to see that you are buying Teck Cominco at these levels...

Thanks for making me think....:)

ALOHA !!

F6-GLD hasn't sold any gold, still at 749 tonnes even though the share price is down 17.41% in a month! Would the GLD administrator and custodian, JP Morgan, inform GLD shareholders if they "loaned" the GLD gold out? How would a GLD shareholder know? Its the classic paper warehouse receipt trick that been going on for centuries!

2nd - "Woulda, coulda, shoulda ...." Yeah, you bet(cha). Again, just joking around while waiting for this Market to leave a trail to follow.

==================================================
Shark. I never heard of the ACD system until you mentioned it; so, I looked it up. I've traded ranges, boxes, flags, etc, whatever you want to call it, but ACD was a new term. My experience, and I think Graither might have hinted this, is that all pattern trading is basically the same no matter who puts their name on some aspect of the trade system.

Personally, I am a trend trader who buys the dips only in uptrends and sells the bounces in downtrends. Breakout trading is useful to me when the trend is established but the dips and bounces are repetitive; so, I do some breakout trading but only in the trend context.

For those of you who don't know what the h__ Shart is talking about, this is a link that I found for the ACD system:
http://tinyurl.com/6nsoh9

BTW, I agree with you about not wanting to mess with low volume stuff. I just saw the pattern and thought it might be worth a real time study of the ACD system. Good luck.

stop out GG
nothing to show for
this buy and hold is no good
should have sold for 23 last friday

RE: BIDU

Any clue as to why it's sold off the first 1/2 hr? I couldn't find any. The volume so far has exceeded that of Friday's. A very sick puppy here...

Any reason to avoid Canadian Pacific (CP)? They've been dropping like a rock.

Question about TOG, what if another short selling ban happened, would it effect TBT?

I hold cp

It hurts !!!

Re: House Of Cards

Further to the house of cards concept in maintaining a leveraged short position against bullion, that the LTCM-style financial house of cards resulting in a pervasive deflationary crash was widened to include government bonds, currencies or just about any form of government issued paper. Its quite an inversion of what people would generally refer to as a 'gold standard.'

re:CP - they still seem very solid though. Ive been noticing this trend with several Canadian companies - do you think this is currency-related?

TBT was unaffected by the short sale ban, although you could have picked it up in the low 50's.

Thanks for the excellent link spot. I do recommend "The Logical Trader" but it's not for everyone. You need to be very disciplined and willing to work a system, as opposed to shooting from the hip, but if you've concluded that you need more discriminating criteria for trades, ACD has a lot of informative power, insofar as when you're breaking the rules at least you know which rule you're breaking. It also helps explain why other traders do some of what they do, and it helps explain why some things that appear like they "should" work out don't.

Traders Library has the book.

vinod - GG - I think we should've sold @ $23 and re-loaded today. Oil is rising now? I'm holding GG, will follow plan more closely in future.

TCK coming back

Interesting article on Canadian Pacific.....

Canadian Pacific May Delay Plans for Oil-Sands Track (Update2)

By Hugo Miller

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. may delay plans to build a line linking refineries near Alberta's oil sands to its main southbound routes if customer demand doesn't emerge, Chief Executive Officer Fred Green said.

``If there is a large customer or customers who are proceeding, then we will build and if not, we'll defer until such time as they do build,'' Green said today in a telephone interview from the company's Calgary headquarters. The decision probably will be made in early 2009, he said.

Canadian Pacific, the nation's second-largest railroad, is weighing its plans as oil companies rein in spending in the Alberta region, which according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers holds the world's biggest energy reserves outside Saudi Arabia. The price of crude oil has tumbled to less than half its record of $147 a barrel in July.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Calgary-based Suncor Energy Inc. and EnCana Corp. have said they will scale back plans to extract bitumen, the tar-like raw material for crude oil, in the region. The Canadian trade group reduced its forecast for spending next year on oil-sands pipelines, mines and plant improvements by 20 percent to C$16 billion ($13.6 billion).

Revenue Sources

The oil-sands line would give Canadian Pacific another revenue source, as the railroad relies on cargo such as sulfur, coal, grain and fertilizers while a slowing U.S. economy curbs demand for shipments of autos, lumber and construction materials.

The planned 16-mile (26-kilometer) track would carry oil byproducts such as sulfur and petroleum coke and boost shipments of those chemicals by as much as 200,000 carloads, or an increase of 7.4 percent from total 2007 deliveries, Green said in May.

``The figure is still accurate, but the timing is different,'' he said today. Green has said the line may cost C$100 million.

Canadian Pacific fell C$5.42, or 11 percent, to C$42.21 at 4:15 p.m. in Toronto Stock Exchange trading, the lowest close since July 13, 2005. The stock has dropped 34 percent this year.

Canadian National Railway Co. is the nation's largest railroad.

-- With reporting by Daniel Whitten in Washington D.C. Editor: John Lear

To contact the reporter on this story: Hugo Miller in Toronto on hugomiller@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 14, 2008 16:28 EST Pacific...

It was really good to read this, this AM:

"spot- well, of course that's why i would be taking profits on a +1500 day..."

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 17, 2008 9:59 AM

Kinda like getting good data from your auto diagnostics saying all is well even if you're driving in a blizzard. That and the silver call have me thinking you are getting more attentive and aggressive 2nd. Good diagnostics....
For some reason my spidey sense is tingling today. Of course it could be the coffee. :>)

F6 always enjoy your analysis.

for how long does gold underperform before we stop saying it "should be performing under these conditions"?

we estimate a bullish situation for gold based upon historical performance. right now history is being made in golds underperformance, even more so for the shares.

we may call this a corrections, a bounce, filling the gap or whatever method one prefers, but when does it become a negative picture?

im not buying anymore until gold closes above $790 for at least 3 sessions. i dont care if it runs up to $820 by the 3rd day and im sitting on my hands waiting. but i dont think that will happen anyway, nor do i think gold will get close to $790 for anything more than a sudden spike up before crashing back down.

a few months out perhaps, but for now its negative.

central bank selling is like analysing tonnage for the GLD. everyone talks about it as if its an indicator of something but its not, because the tonnage isnt being reflected in the price. for how long must this divergence occur before its no longer a divergence but a non-conforming pattern that never told us anything.

the G20 meeting and the december COMEX default in gold that many gold bugs were hanging their hat on is being talked about less and less as the 28th approaches and the price keeps falling along w/ the shares.

what will the newsletter writes use to prognosticate the explosion in the POG next?
clearly every financial crisis the past quarter has only brought power to the US dollar not gold. i find it hilarious how newsletter writers continue to talk about currency defaults in other nations being good for gold when in reality its only been good for the USD.

the usual blather about saudi's and asians buying gold is baseless and a tad rascist. honestly, when people say "asians are buying gold" or "chineese know value, they are buying gold", a la Jim willie's hat trick letter, i find it somewhat disturbing that one can distill over 1 billion people down to a few choice behaviours whihc have no basis in reality. if the chineese are buying gold en mass we certainly have no evidence for it because the price keeps falling.

if the chineese or indians are smart and buy gold because they know something europeans dont then why is their domestic market crashing too.

it sounds to me that we are all human and suffer the same blindsidedness. saudi arabia, russia,iran and china and the like are not open nations, statments from them about holdings, purchases and policy are made public for our consumption, they are not meant to tip their hats at what they are doing.

people talk of russia moving away from dollars and being at virtual war w/ the US but fail to understand how many billions in russian money is invested in the US, how many russians attend american and european schools, how many vacation away from russia and have homes in western nations. this notion that russia or any other nation would try to scuttle the US would mean damaging considerable wealth held there by its riches citizens. same with iran who still trades consdierable amounts of money in US dollars for oil and exports to the US.

its alot of talk, and the price action is the only proof we have thus far that every idea about gold going up is proven wrong. until its proven right....

re..."Why should solar development in America depend on high oil prices? What sort of mentality is that?"
Obama said the same thing last night on tv. Now is the time.
re lay offs... just a personal observation as opposed to 53,ooo in the news, but a great guy and a dedicated employee along with many of his other manufacturers reps of a better than the cheapest cabinet company mass marketed are getting laid off in the first round of this slow down. Be careful out there.
peace from foggy north Puget Sound

"Discrimination of any kind is what purposefully separates and divides society to the benefit of groups who seek control without earning the privilege."

Exactly. Couldn't have said it better myself.

Oh bother. I just buy em' when they come to me and sell em' when they run. GG is a good one to trade around, buy LT at around $14 and then scalp a position in the $18-24 range, sometimes to the 30's. Same for GLD. The low is $66, so if it starts to get down in the 60's I nibble, then sell it in the 70's, sometimes a spike higher. You could do the same for SLV, SLW too.

This way you can keep a low basis LT position for a possible run and make some $ on the trading range while you fret over the LT prospects.

GM ......then..... GE, maybe?
http://tinyurl.com/6mdrsb

So far this tape is feeling like a milder version of Friday. The financials are acting almost exactly the same.

EEMTRADER
Yes i heard same thing about GE
i did not wanted to post too many negative so I kept it to my self

some how many of the CARA 100 are up today

I SEEM TO HAVE A COMFORT ZONE IN TRADING THAT PREDISPOSES ME TO TRADE LARGE CAPS LIKE KFT,KO, MMM AND THE LIKES IN TRADING RANGES. LATELY I'VE INCLUDED CVX AND XOM TO MY WILLING TO BUY ON DIPS. I DON'T NOTE MANY IF ANY OTHER TRADERS AT THIS BLOG MENTIONING TRADING THE LARGE CAPS LIKE THESE SOMEWHAT BORING BEOMOTHS.

IS THERE AN OBVIOUS REASON FOR THIS?
I SELDOM IF EVER HIT A HOME RUN, BUT I REALLY LIKE THE SINGLES AND RARE DOUBLES THAT THEY PRODUCE...

Vinod...Fortune had an article on GE about a month ago.....love investigative journalism...

Immelt is a promoter..first the abu dahbi folks then buffet, then Immelt buying at market..immelt is trying too hard to promote....he has plenty of marketing bones...

so why promote so hard...?

PLENTY of world OTHER worldclass companies around...

no holdings in GE and none planned..:)

This isn't quite the pullback I was anticipating. Up from here, is my supposition.

re: alternative energy

We diddled away 30 years since energy began to become expensive — worse yet we increased our dependency by adding more inefficient cars, houses, etc.

Last night I watched Ask This Old House as they were assembling a computer designed, factory built house which came to the site with windows, heating, plumbing, wiring insulation (R-30) and both the inside and outside nearly finished.

Buckminster Fuller was prevented form dong this post WW2, largely due to the strength of the unions. His plan was to convert war time airplane assembly lines to home construction. As I recall, only the Lustron, all steel houses had any degree of success in doing this.

What an opportunity for a company to design, construct and assemble an efficient and low cost product.

This house on TV was not low cost by any means, but did incorporate modern techniques and features which would work at any price level.

Does anyone know of such a company today other than what is known as mobile homes?

There's a lot of running room for BIDU...

RE: ALT Energy

My money is on Solyndra..not on suburbia.

Grym - There are many modular home builders, which are a very far cry from trailer homes. This gained huge momentum in the boom. Next phase is likely to be more as you describe with larger sub-assemblies delivered to site? Very energy efficient by the way, as these are built almost like an ice chest cooler.

I like Bill's call for the skies to clear later today. Lots of screaming about how bad things are but none of this is really new or unexpected news.

C cutting staff is a good thing for the company - I think they will end up nice and green today. C acknowledged that they are bloated and overpaid and need to slim down to be a viable business.......acknowledging they have a problem is the first step in rehab......same goes for GS execs who will forgoe bonuses this year.

These are good acknowledgements that the game is over - we can start moving on IMO.

Okay, here's my favorite solar technology, something I'm still considering for personal implementation for the purpose of winter heating and hot water source. I'll bet someone here knows more than I...

Solar heat collectors with a fluid transfer into a large insulated mass such as concrete, which is part of a well insulated structure. The problem with concrete of course, is it's manufacture is so CO2 intensive.

Todd - maybe it's a blessing in disguise that i'm all in on the other stocks i hold (until more money clears wednesday). I would have purchased BIDU at mid 150's.

Dr. Cosa - Precious Metal prices

Isn't it really quite simple: that prices rise when there's inflation, when the US$ depreciates, and/or when people completely lose faith in banks.

That's Donald Coxe speaking. He also notes that on 7/15 Hank and Ben began to assure rescue of banks. They forbade shorting of banks.

So, hedge funds covered their bank shorts - by selling commodity positions, including PM's. Add in a global deep recession, and here we are.

How can the immense global reflation FAIL to spark inflation (after a 6-9 month lag) to depreciate the US$, and to move precious metal prices up? Am I missing something?

Please, people, it's not "rascist" to expect that Chinese, Indians, middle-easterners and Russians to lead the rush into PM's. It's historical perspective! - These cultures which are accumulating wealth (unlike declining America) think about the millenia when gold was the store of value.

Wow - just saw on Yahoo Finance front page that the SEC charged Mark Cuban w/ insider trading of shares of Mamma.com in 2004:

http://tinyurl.com/6e7zyt

Only took 4 years to crack the case........

CP - Solar heating. Brought back memories from the late 70's early 80's. Here is a link that might have some info of use to you in your project:
http://tinyurl.com/5sqr2j

Personal experience. I had a solar water heater on the roof of my house but got rid of it when it developed problems (about 10 years). If you go that direction, some of the best solar heaters were made in Australia a few years ago, and maybe now also - they know how to do it in any case. Whatever you buy, check out how the copper parts are protected from breakdown. For example, some cheaper manufacturers aren't careful about mixing copper with aluminum or steel parts or with inappropriate solders; thus, they breakdown much quicker than your payback period calls for.

jmho and hope to help.

bsi - still holding DRYS? if the market closes up big again i wouldn't be surprised to see a +30-40% day today.

watch that 88.40 pivot on spy...

teamonfuego

re: BIDU

I was thinking the same thing about you not having access to those funds for 3 days, but I didn't want to say anything. It saved you $$. Sometimes things work out that way for a reason ...

Grym - "Last night I watched Ask This Old House as they were assembling a computer designed, factory built house which came to the site with windows, heating, plumbing, wiring insulation (R-30) and both the inside and outside nearly finished."

Do you remember the name of the company that produced the house on TOH prgram? In an earlier lifetime, I worked for such a company, Cardinal Ind, which mastered (yes I'm biased) the art of modular production, delivery, and finished product of such homes at a very reasonable cost. They were located in Columbus, OH, but went out of business when the Gov suddenly changed some tax rules for the companies that bought the modules for related business purposes.

I wonder if someone with bucks will bring back that process? It worked until the tax change, but that change might still be in place.

jock,

thx for your comments,

my comments about asian gold buying werent meant to point a finger at someone prognosticating about asians purchasing gold, it was aimed at baseless claims of asians purchasing gold w/ no data to support it and based on these notions that asians in some way know something the rest of us dont, or that the chineese are moving away from one type of asset to gold because they see the writing on the wall.

its not supported by the facts.

and americans are buying gold as evidenced by the shortage of the physical.

if anything asians and russians who enjoy any sort of wealth have money held outside russia and china in the US because of a percieved instability in their nations. it wasnt long ago that russia defaulted.

i need to emphasize that the majority of claims being made to support a bullish case for gold are not supported by facts that are easily disproven.

POG is moving as i type this, if we close above $750 w/ more power into tomorow something may be changing. or mabey not!!! ;)

The Chinese government is apparently seeking to move away from the dollar into hard assets and gold:

http://tinyurl.com/5sav8y

Jesse also has an article highlighting huge demand for gold from private Saudi investors.

moab,

this was posted this weekend i think,
read through the article carefully and you will note many of hte people cited are either analysts with asian investment firms or uncited sources close to the government,

it is no different than a north american article citing john embry and jim dines about the direction the treasury will take for future gold purchases.

until we see evidence of actual buying we have nothing but more baseless speculation that we have heard for years.

remember, should gold shoot up to $920, it will have simply returned to its level of 2 months ago, and many will take this as a false signal thinking it satisfies all these theories when it is simply moving back to past resistance at a price that not too long ago was being cited as the line in the sand before asians started buying and the COMEX was supposed to default.

see what i mean?

Does anyone have a suggestion for squeezing some yield out of cash holdings. I'm currently in a US Treasury MM and I was thinking of using an Short Muni fund. Where are you guys parking your cash?

... a short Muni Fund

Cp, Spot,

Got this from TOH wesite: http://tiny.cc/FBu2t

Tedd Benson and his company, Bensonwood, have designed the house and, working side by side with the entire TOH team, will prefabricate about three-quarters of it in a factory. Then TOH general contractor Tom Silva and his crew will take over, preparing the site and putting the individual panels together on the property before completing the finishes. The process will cut the building time in half, as most of the wiring, plumbing, windows, and finishes will go into the panels at the factory.
-------------------
Maybe Tedd Benson would try a large scale higher production, but I got the feeling he is more likely to prefer doing unique houses than mass production.

For years I have thought we could design and produce schools, prisons and many other buildings as modules. As needs changed so could the buildings.

For homes for example, several basic sizes and arrangements could be done for each room category. They could then be promoted by sending a small model to potential buyers and allow them to shuffle to suit their own arrangement and snapped together. The full-sized one would go together the same way.

When New Orleans was hit, instead of placing survivors in FEMA trailers, what if we had made such homes available with a low interest government loan? The option of building on existing sites (if safe), or resettling large numbers of people to those army bases we shut down a few years ago would be better than what actually took place.

spot - Yes, this is the tech I've been pondering. My all-electric home energy costs this month were ~$70, 45% of which were grid maintenance related. BTW, passive is gaining momentum in Japan. Serious systems use evacuated (vacuum) collectors, high specific-gravity fluids (for freeze protection) and low-corrosive materials. These upgrades produce remarkable performance gain over previous designs, and don't require the inefficient and expensive battery storage of an off-grid system.

If only we could ditch the grid and supply chain entirely!

Photogray,

It will depend on the price of oil for simple supply demand reasons.

Just as happened in the 1970s, when people adjusted to gas going from $0.30/gal. to $0.60 the lack of interest in a long range, costly change forced the alternative producers to fail.

Recently the second largest ethanol company filed bankruptcy.

The Arabs, the major oil producers and their lobbyists didn't get rich by being "nice."

Grym

re: "When New Orleans was hit, instead of placing survivors in FEMA trailers, what if we had made such homes available . . "

Actually an acquaintance of mine had an ingenious proposal for FEMA to provide prefabricated homes, virtually infestation proof from the Tawainese termite (NOLA is ground zero) constructed for a cost less than what a FEMA trailer cost! They even constructed a model, which would cost @ 60-65K versus the @ 72K cost of a FEMA trailer. I think the homes were warranted for 30 or more years also if memory serves me correct.

I saw one while visiting N.O. in the Spring of '06. Looked great and held up very well, not requiring the regular painting and maintenance a pure wood structure would require.

FEMA declined going forward because "they could only authorize temporary quarters" (FEMA trailers). I kid you not!

Don't know who had the FEMA trailer contract, but talk about . . . O'well, forget it, back to the markets after a lunch break.

Any view on PHG at this level, it trades in line with GE but doesnt have the financial exposure of GE. I think, once the market stabilizes, it should go back to mid 20s.

SORRY ! off topic

I need to book a hotel room any good Canadian websites for hotels with cheap rates ??

again sorry!

responses would be appreciated...

re:DRYS

yes, still long. Look at $bdi.

sv:

use priceline, and biddingfortravel to triangulate the expected price and hotel. you can usually get a great 3.5* like the Sheraton Downtown Toronto for $80-90US

Sheva:

RE: PHG

Whats the catalyst? ( other than some overall market rebound? I foverall rebound.better beta stocks out there no? )
Do you think EuroZone/Asia Economy will recover before the US?

What do you think of PHG's semi and solar business? Europe slowing down solar adoption...check out spain and germany ( they were the leaders )

Just wondering whether you invest or trade based on funnymentals or technicals or both...

GLD broke down out of the intraday triangle I thought I was seeing last week, but there was no follow through, and then it broke back in again - also with no follow through.
Now it looks like it is going to fall out again, but - no follow through so far.
Sum total, I think it is still just consolidating, neither bullish nor bearish, and only the most idiot savant daytrader can love these patterns.

Re gold,

Gold was previously used as an international standard of value for trade, as most know.
Look at the "ducat" on wikipedia for the history.
Gold was generally NOT used as a currency within countries, rather silver and/or copper, which many today do NOT seem to know.

Here is a thought that gold may be reinstated in that international trade function:

A return to the Bretton Woods international gold standard is inevitable
http://tinyurl.com/5vzyqq

" . . .
Will gold re-monetization make me rich if I own gold?

Is gold re-monetization good for gold owners? We’ve seen calculations of potential future post re-monetization prices such as those suggested by Larry Edelson over at Money and Markets ranging from $5,300 to $53,000 per ounce. We have since 2001 forecast a $5,000 peak gold price, but that estimate is based on a set of metrics, such as the ratio of gold to the DOW that we anticipate at the top of a global currency crisis, not post re-monetization gold reserve ratios. Less important than the gold price to gold owners, however, is the ugly political and legal environment, not to mention the social atmosphere, that is likely to exist at the time that economic conditions drive international parties to the table to hammer out a new international gold standard.

The range of future popular opinion of private gold holders under those drastic circumstances ranges from villain or hero and everything in between. If gold owners are vilified, you can count on a less than friendly government policies on gold taxation and possession. The 1933 confiscation was strictly old school; the modern approach is more likely to take the form of a 90% capital gains tax on private gold sales with high penalties to encourage sales to the government at a fixed price and slow a popular rush to the metal, and of course create an enormous black market in the bargain. If that sounds paranoid, you haven’t been watching the news lately.
. . . "

Price of oil.
Not sure who this cat was on the video below but he is speaking my thoughts on where oil prices could go. Imo - we should consider more natural resources to drop before they go up (way).

Bloomberg

"Cameron's Beutel sees likelyhood of $35-40 crude oil"

http://tinyurl.com/6hu44e

bsi,

Man, that baltic dry index chart is almost comedy. Threw in full stoch out of curiosity and it's basically flatlined at 0 since mid-June with an occasional blip.

I suppose the MACD is looking favorable now and RSI is climbing, which may be your point...

From a fundamental perspective, couldn't one consider shipping to be more like natural gas, i.e. with gas you just stop pumping it and it gets used up fast driving prices back up. If shipping rates drop too hard, they just park the boats until prices improve? Kind of like immediate feedback whereas other commodities like copper have stockpiles and lag time. All sounds good in theory i suppose :)

Long DXO NOW for a swing Trade..adding if USO crosses 48.20..stop 45.40...just sharing my own fantasies..

EEMTrader,
My take on PHG is the overall market rebound . They got rid of the semi & solar business many years back. Now they have Consumer Electronics, Medical Equipment, Lighting & Personal appliances. Lighting & Personal appliances divisions have been cash cows for them, while Medical equipment has been on a downturn last few years. They dont invest too much in consumer electronics, just maintain a presence & try to break even. Even pricing all those it should trade around 25. I would put PHG on low downside risk, low to medium return category.

XLY has now two weekly closes below the 2002 low @ c.a. 19.90.

IYR has it's first weekly close below the 2002 low @ c.a. 34.70

Why anyone would want to be long any of these is beyond me.

General market has a negative tone.
Corporated credit markets still deteriorating.

Oil continues down, XLE should soon join in unless "something happens".

Sheva: Good for you..i got my eyes on DIG and DXO..stopped out and back in...nailed my stop bad placement..gotta wait for CL to stop trading..

PHG got rid of their solar biz..really?

Just ran into a guy here in honolulu thats runs one of their groups...Not doubting you..just sharing info...

I have my money on commods...yeah even GLD for a market rebound..PHG looks good..nice bull divergence on daily chart ( heck .a lot of stocks have it in this downtrend right now).at least to this pair of eyes...

Thanks for the PHG tip..might get some if we break 88.40 on spy...if not..it will be cheaper soon...ok best of luck to you...and thanks for the suggestion

Not that I think anything market moving is imminent, but I feel for the "pirates" that took that Saudi oil tanker off of Kenya. I suspect a Saudi King has a wide degree of latitude when it comes to sending Saudi Intelligence to deal with certain international difficulties. Who will question him?

EEMTRADER,
Actually they were never into SOLAR. They had a semiconductor Division (now its called NXP semiconductors & sold off to KKR, few years back).

navid

THANKS!

Sheva: my apologies..that was Siemens I was thiking of.

This market really reminds me the picture of a school of fish swimming first in one direction and then in another :)

Hi,

CNBC is saying that "stocks could test the lows right into next year"

This is the kind of news that tells me that the bottom is likely in:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27767713

Baidu.....http:tinyurl.com/5p59al

SLW looking very ugly. Bought at $2.86. Looked like it wants to bottom there. Looks cheap, too.

this market sucks. if i hold for 10 yrs i should be ok right? jk.

Here we go again....

GOLDMAN NAKED SHORT SELLING

What’s that the police Inspector said: “I’m shocked, shocked to find out . . . . .”

http://tinyurl.com/26fnnu

Selling debt it doesn’t own?

Fund managers complaining.

Goldman “was seen as the most aggressive in recent months in selling loans at prices below other dealers’ offers and taking longer than the LSTA’s recommended seven days to settle the deals, according to the investors complaining to the trade group.” (Sounds like a clue)

http://tinyurl.com/6lmqxx

Seamus: TRA above $17...buy buy buy?

Markets like a hamster cage today.....lots of running but we're not going anywhere.

EEMTrader

TRA Yes, that would be a positive . . . look how it reacted on the big down day on 10/10/2008. Vol seems a little low after selloffs in Sept & Oct. Limited sellers?

You probably know this, but TRA also owns @ 50% of TNH, a LP, paying a big dividend.

brought SLW again
as usuall, since i am in. It going to hit my stop of $2.00.lets see

Looks like BC has support at $2.25

Agree with the opinion on TRA.

Way to go
we still have 8266 point before it reach zero?

zero is out but maybe 6,000 isn't. Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services says unless GM is bailed out, "look out below.there's no floor to this market,"

vinod - looks like we've still held 850 on the S&P, above the 10/27 closing lows. And volume didn't look as frantic today. DJIA is also in the same camp.

That is the lowest Nasdaq close, however.

aloha grym
to find a listing of modern pre fab homes livemodern.com

Im in at 3.46 slw, tse. lets see how it goes vinod, thriftybob. Days lows 2.81, 3.43 respectively.

2nd_ave: the parable you told yesterday is a great help for people in hard times. I have been thinking along the similar lines recently, saying to myself that my decision of keeping all my money in the stock market (and taking a huge hit in October) has nevertheless kept me away from buying a house. So relatively speaking, I am in a much better shape financially than many of my friends who bought a house/condo a couple of years ago and saw it lose 30-50% of its value already, making it worth less now than their loan amount. So while many people are in debt now and are really losing their sleep worrying about being layed off at the moment when they have negative equity in their house, the prospect of a layoff is much less scary to me since I have no debt now and even some net cash in the stock market. So instead of cursing the stock market, I am thanking it occasionally. :)

Mark Cuban shorted his own dot.com to make his fortune. Karma kickback.

GM remains market leader even on verge of bankruptcy!

I wonder if we'll get a wave of announcements like GS's (foregoing exec bonuses) this week? Granted - GS is the strongest of these companies and will likely survive in the long run, so maybe it is easier for the Blanfein Bunch to follow through with this act of goodwill.

For those companies with fates that are more uncertain, will Cuomo have to pry the bonuses from their cold dead hands?

Sundance-

I am not so sure GS is so strong....the performance of its stock over teh last two months tell a different story. wish I was short GS.
Volume on the NYSE today was pretty light if WSJ is correct.

Ray

Dr. Strangeglove,

Cuban may be guilty as sin with this current fiasco, but as for as karma kicking back because of his supposed shorting of his own dot.com, didn't Cuban simply use options to hedge his massive equity position?

I could very well be wrong, the years have been full of other, more important info.

But if all Cuban did was hedge with options, I sure hope karma's not involved, because I'd be due a bunch of visits.

Bill,

As long as we are watching the breakdown of HB&B in real time, I was wondering if you had any thoughts on the future of the Wall Street "analysts".

It is obvious to anyone with a pulse that there is a serious conflict of interest between those who provide independent "analysis" and "research" and those who work on the "sell-side" of wall street.

Is the "analyst game" just another HB&B corruption that has been ignored as long as the good times were rolling? Will there ever be a system that is transparent enough to allow us to follow long-term track record of individual analysts?

Enough of this "downgrade from Buy to Hold" type non-sense. How about firm price targets with dates attached?

[Bill Cara note:

Excellent discussion. There are many types of analysts: fundamental, quantitative, Technical, economic for example. Some may specialize in equities, or equity sectors or groups, etc, or in the debt market, commodities market or forex, etc. On Wall Street, they work for the Buy-Side or the Sell-Side or may be independent contractors to either or both. Some may work individually and others by team. Depending on language and culture and securities rules and regulations under which they operate, there is often different meaning to the same words they use. So, the label "analyst" may apply -- yet hardly define the person. In my view, they are all essential to the trading function. I do think that Congress should mandate the SEC with the power to set standards and to require certain disclosures be made when publishing or speaking to the media, which would go a long way to controlling the abuses you refer to with respect to transparency (track-record, ambiguity, etc). Analysts, including economists, have been abused by, and they too have abused in many cases, the Sell-side. In far too many cases, what has been represented to the public as analysis is part of the story telling (synthesis) of the Sell-side. The public, in many cases, lacks the sophistication in financial matters to understand the simple points I am making here. They get misled. So there needs to be some legislation, but rather than see too much regulation, I'd like to see the creation of a Capital Markets Ombudsman -- probably at the SEC, perhaps as part of their office of investor education. I would rather see public policy explained than attempts to prosecute it. Capital markets need their freedom -- we don't need more government involved. So the ultimate solution must be balanced. The good news is that the Sell-side and the Buy-side on Wall Street is highly sophisticated and the subject matter is not rocket science. Analysts have been around forever, and the players know that tighter standards (let's call them Industry Best Practices) are possible. An Ombudsman might be needed to push them to a result that the public needs. If that fails, in say 18 months, Congress should step in.]

Rayg

I just meant that GS was strong relative to its peers. I.E. they are one of the least smelly piles of garbage of all the pile-of-garbage financial companies.

GS is definetly not strong but I do think they will survive and thus execs can foregoe bonuses and live to fight another day - which may not be the case for their peers overseeing the remnants of other financial companies.

David and 2nd
If someone brought house couple year ago. It price is down 30% to 40% now, as you have mention.
And if someone brought stock, he is even down more
At least that person with house been able to live in it and save money in deducting interest in tax.
While loser in stock can only claim 3000 tax deduction.
Jury may be out to see who did better?

Vinod,
Problem with house is he would have taken a loan (3 to 5X minimum leverage), so a 30% down is really a big hit (would have wiped out the initial payment). If the person has invested in the stock market, he would have lost a portion of capital.

Vinod - problem is leverage. with a house not many people put more than 20% down. a 30% drop on a $500k house means a $150k loss on a $100k down payment (obviously there's more to it b/c you're paying part equity with each monthly payment, but you get the gist).

Brown-Cal, re parking cash.

I still owe a relatively small amount on my house. Instead of a mortgage, I have an at-prime LOC. I parked some of my cash there, thus saving more interest than I could earn in the safe stuff. I can always grab it back if I need it. Plus, I won't pay tax on the money saved.

Just a thought for those to whom it might apply.

Best, everyone.

vinod: bought a house in CA usually means "invested all life savings that amounted to 10% of the downpayment." If the house is down by 30-40%, it means that all life savings have been wiped out and a huge debt is looming instead. Those of my friends who did not buy a house are renting a house now, living in a smimilar comfort but without any headaches about being in debt.

Blowout Preventer-
He hedged his employees and made a fortune. Draw your own conclusions.

Cheers.

David- interesting comparison...if one had taken, let's say 100k, and put 20% down on a 500k house in the summer of 2006, then in your county (Santa Clara), they've pretty much lost the 100k...if they were imprudent enough to have taken out an adjustable mortgage, then there's the additional insult of higher payments with each adjustment, on top of the hit to their home value...it probably doesn't get any better if they try to refinance to a fixed loan (assuming it's even possible), as the lender will most likely reassess the home at 400k, and they will then be subject to PMI (private mortgage insurance) due to insufficient equity in the home...

whereas a 100k investment in the total market (as of the summer of 2006) might be in the 60k range right now...in fact, one could take that 60k and put 15% down on a 400k home as an alternative to staying in the stock market...

so i'd say you're right...

I just talked with a friend of mine who works at Fidelity Investments and asked him about hedge fund redemptions. He said that some hedge funds require a 90-day notice and some require a 45-day notice before funds can be withdrawn. So October 14 was the 45-day deadline for those who wanted to withdraw funds before December 31. He also said that out of about $1.5 trillion that hedge funds manage, about $400 billion is currently in cash. So most of those who wanted (or had to) to sell, already sold. However, no one wants to buy now, since there is so much uncertainty now with TARP, bailouts, change of presidents, etc. So in his opinion, the only reason for stocks to fall to new lows would be if the January earnings season will be much worse than expected. If that doesn't happen, however, then we will have a panic buying rally in February.

[Bill Cara note:

David, I want to thank you for making this contribution.]

David...in addition, you have wisely decided to forego watching market prices in real time in favor of sleeping on your own schedule and investing in two assets that are not declining in value- your kids and your career...i think you're in great shape, man..

I just want to mention that Mark Cuban did NOT engage in insider trading.

Cuban was a large investor, first of all, not himself an insider. Secondly, the sale is alleged to have followed a solicitation-of-money call FROM an insider who invited Cuban to invest even more money in the company. Cuban then, for one reason or another, sold his 6% stake in the company. If his sale was coincidental to receiving that info then so be it. If the call to Cuban asking for more money raised an alert and somehow caused a chain of events that culminated in Cuban's sale of the stock, It was NOT, as has been alleged, insider trading per se, but illustrative of a normal pattern of behavior.

This affair differs wildly from the familiar Martha Stewart case. Cuban was NOT called and tipped off about an investment offering that might materially affect the value of his shares. He was instead called and SOLICITED for that offering, and his subsequent INTERPRETATION and use of that information to make a personal investment decision IN NO WAY rises to the level of criminality, even under the tortured interpretation that prosecution is no doubt pursuing. Lacking in this instance is the intent to defraud on Cuban's part. He needed, being the recipient of information he had no reason to believe was not already public information, no further clearance to alter his holdings in the company as he saw fit.

[Bill Cara note:

Sharkie, are you a lawyer? I didn't know... In either case, do you know the facts or just surmising?]

Seamus: good to hear from you. Always like a new englander watching my back in a knife fight...:)

Like Dividends....? FRO...?

moab wrote earlier today:

"The Chinese government is apparently seeking to move away from the dollar into hard assets and gold:

Jesse also has an article highlighting huge demand for gold from private Saudi investors."

I've been reading more of these articles in the "papers" recently and with all the price-action contradicting, that little birdy in my head is saying "watch out!". There are a lot of parallels to today and and the early '80s, I think: Gold coming off a peak, oil-price shock abating, inflation concerns dropping, US$ rising, to name a few (also Volker back in the picture!). I read an opinion this weekend which contained this graph:

http://tinyurl.com/5gc99o

While I know there are many readers/contributors to this blog who have close ties/interests in the mining industry, esp. Gold and I trust a lot of their opinions, nevertheless, is there any reason we should be perhaps discussing the possibility of a major drop in Gold down to much lower levels? Say $500? $400?

"the possibility of a major drop in Gold down to much lower levels? Say $500? $400?"

...in the LONGER RUN, I should say. Not inconsistent with this idea would be a pretty significant "bear" rally in Gold from around these levels lasting a week or two.

Navios (NM) reported excellent earnings and boosted their dividend payout after hours. Should bode well for the dry bulk shippers like DRYS and DCX should investors decide to set their fears aside for more than a few minutes.

shark said:

"He needed, being the recipient of information he had no reason to believe was not already public information, no further clearance to alter his holdings in the company as he saw fit."

My understanding is that he entered into a NDA before being told about the additional solicitation, which I believe would make this information non-public, and would in fact make him an "insider" for the purposes of the insider trading statues.

I'm not a lawyer, that's just the understanding beaten into my head during years of working for a publicly-held company....

Re. Mackinaw's post, wasn't the peak in the USD in the early 80s due to very high interest rates (>10%)? Were these interest rates so high to contain inflation, which in 1980 (July to July) was 13%? Fed rate was 14% in May 1981. In this particular sense, these do not seem like similar scenarios.

There once was a blogger Prieur,
thru automated blogs here did err,
Subscribers as one said "enough is enough",
we all agreed it's time to get tough,
so now we are free of this burr.

[Bill Cara note:

There are always two sides of a story. It is true that I supported Prieur when others here started to complain with what they saw as blatant self-promotion. Then I saw a progression of less than valuable material and got concerned, but I still didn't want to comment because frankly there is a lot of rope given here to some participants. The end for me came when I served notice, and got no reply. After the same stuff happened, I edited out material and cut the link. Still no reply. That's when I realized that it was probably accurate what some people were writing me to say he had set up a web posting program and wasn't even reading the blog. He says otherwise. In any case, I have just completed nine straight weeks of working 100+hours a week and I'm not in the best humor when I get negative letters every time he posted. So, let's put it down to circumstances that he sees it one way, most of you see it another, and I failed to take the time to personally contact him to try to resolve the split. I'm sorry, but I cannot put more time into this blog, and some people are not going to appreciate the abruptness of my actions at times. I warned people this would happen, and it has. Let's move on.]

Jay,

You're probably right, I am just making the case for my man Cuban. I also supported Martha, so you know where I'm coming from.

But think about it...A guy with 5 billion is going to sign a non-disclose and then engage in insider trading to save $750k, less than one tenth of one percent of his worth?

I notice they're not seeking prison time, just disgorgement (of an eye?) and a big fine.

Yang to resign from Yahoo.

Up afterhours

seadog you're better than Shakespeare dude.

Yes, SiO2, that was a major difference. But price actions across the board seem to be similar to that period today. Substitute "quest for safety in US $" (today) with "quest for yield in US$" (then)? Fact is, Oil is down, Gold is down, US$ is up, equities are down today just like in the Nov 1980-Aug 1982 period. Point I was trying to make is that price action during, and what followed was not particularly pleasant for Gold.

Incidently, what followed after that 1980-1982 period was a relentless march of the S&P 500 from 103.75 (Aug 1982) to 1527 (March 2000) interrupted only by the 1987 wobble. +1075%. Wouldn't that be nice :)

There once was a Bill from Bahama,
who blogged in the Age of Obama,
he showed us the light,
so we'd learn how to fight,
for our rights in the time of the drama.

Those interested in Gold will get something from this viewpoint of Kevin Depew http://tinyurl.com/6dnff3

Could it be the behavioural phenomenon of recency?

"Understandably, there are those who maintain we are approaching an aggressively inflationary or perhaps even a hyperinflationary meltdown. The conventional wisdom is that the dollar will collapse and gold will skyrocket. This is entirely understandable.

Why? Because it is very difficult to psychologically accept the reversal of a long-standing trend. As humans we tend to overweight recent events and believe that what has most recently happened will continue to happen. What has happened most recently is that the dollar has already collapsed (by 40% since 2001) and that gold has already skyrocketed (up 240% over the same period).

But that was the last war. This is a new one.

As the saying goes, "Many shall be restored that are now fallen, and many shall fail that are now in honor.""

... now you know why I got a C in poetry :(

Mackinaw- a C in poetry stands for Creativity, and I say Si both to you and C-dog...

[Bill Cara note:

Man, this blog has taken on a life of its own. I love the poetry. I'm just wondering what Barron's and WSJ editors are thinking.]

Beautiful weather today here in north texas.

MacKinaw,

As I see it, dollars are measured in gold only because the dollar's value is inherently unstable as result of the huge structural deficits (both trade and budget, let alone "off budget"), in addition to the already horrifying amount of debt.

Had those been kept under reasonable control, there would be no need to seek the safety of gold, but now that the situation is beyond intolerable, I'd never sell my metal till I absolutely need to or the price gets to the point of being silly and the dollar stable.

To be honest, I don't see that happening anytime in the next 50 years.

[Bill Cara note:

Gee, I wish I could see in 50 years. But, I do agree with everything you have said here. But don't forget that gold is also priced in other currencies, and the fiat money in many countries is constantly depreciating as bad or worse than the USD. All countries are reflating, which is a reason for gold prices to rise at some point. When it does, I expect the trend to be unstoppable for many months, and the end result will likely be quite shocking to people.]

gld looks promising,I am no e waver but it looks like 5 waves down ,the volume seems a good characteristic with a strong upsurge in the 4th wave and very small on the 5th wave down?

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/3538/jjjjxt4.png

oil fwiw hitting lower rail

http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/6092/oooex5.png

teamonfuego, NM actually lowered future dividend payout:
"Ms. Frangou continued, "We are paying dividends for the third quarter of $0.09 per share. We remain committed to returning capital to shareholders while allowing for future growth. We have increased the share repurchase program by $25.0 million and intend to maintain a quarterly dividend of $0.06 per share, commencing with the fourth quarter of 2008."
http://tinyurl.com/6aqyez

Mackinaw,
We should co-author a book before Bush goes. The subject material is huge but then again who would buy it?

seadog- IMO, some books are written to be sold, and some to be read...if you feel compelled to write about something, the writing will be compelling, and people will read it...

Shall we begin, seadog?

There once was a cowboy from Texas,
whose shinnagins, surely, did vex us,
while he bumbled along,
selling a tired, worn-out, song,
Ma and Pa took a kick in the plexus.

(solar that is!)

groosbank- if the occasion of beautiful weather in North Texas is worth its own post, i feel sorry for you, man ;) here in the Bay Area, it's bad weather that deserves mention...

make that 'if the ocurrence of beautiful weather occasions a post'...

occurrence, of course...

so Jerry Yang steps down...

http://tinyurl.com/5eap3z

grrr... "shenanigans", not ....

There once was a guy named Mark Cubin
the SEC commission tried to ruin
were they insider trades
or just hedged bets that paid
I think there's a troubles a brewin'.

There once was a man named Chris Cox...

I'm not going there...

"I wish I could say more, but I will have to leave it to this, and let the judicial process do its job"
http://www.blogmaverick.com

"A classic post on hedge funds."

http://tinyurl.com/68upjb

"Talking Stocks & Money"
http://tinyurl.com/5zew75

"The bank made up forecasts formulating revenue numbers at monstrous growth rates that at some point in the future led to profits. Unfortunately, the bank couldn’t attract enough new money to the stock to sustain its price. It didn’t have enough brokers to shout out the marketing spiel to entice enough new buyers to pay the old buyers. The hope among the “sophisticated buyers” was that one bank picking up coverage would lead to others doing the same. It didn’t happen. No other big investment banks published reports on the stock. The volume turned down.

So I did the only smart thing. I sold my stock, and I shorted it to boot. Then I told the same people who asked me why I was buying the stock that I had shorted the stock. Over the next months, the stock sank into oblivion. In 1997, Gandalf filed for bankruptcy. Its shares were canceled - wiped out - a few months later. I wish I could take credit for the stock going up, and going down. I can’t. If the company had performed well, who knows what the stock would have done?

But the entire experience taught me quite a bit about how the market works. For years on end a company’s price can have less to do with a company’s real prospects than with the excitement it and its supporters are able to generate among investors. That lesson was reinforced as I saw the Gandalf experience repeated with many different stocks over the next 10 years. Brokers and bankers market and sell stocks. Unless demand can be manufactured, the stock will decline."

http://blogmaverick.com/?s=insider

"Ive traded stocks for almost twenty years now. IM good at it. When i work at it. And it takes a lot of work. Not just reading all the 10K/Qs and corporate websites and product managers, or talking to people at the outskirts of the company where management doesnt reach. It takes often knowing the market for a company’s product better than the company does. After all just because a company is public doesnt mean a thing other than someone has , and continues to make money buying and selling the stock as their own product.

If you are going to trade stocks, you just have to follow one rule and remember one thing. That rule is always have a definite knowledge advantage about the company you are trading, and always remember that every stock transaction has a sucker, and you have to know whether its you or the person on the other side of the trade. No one buys a stock from your, or sells one to you knowing they are leaving money on the table."

Tellin' it like it is... PT Barnum couldn't have said it better.

I wish they would focus on how to fix the current stock market situation than on something that happened 2 years ago.

Daily Kos - Mark Cuban's insider trading charge-Rovian payback?

http://tinyurl.com/6f5obe

so I hear, also the symantec ceo stepped down

Scwharzenegger proposes sales taxes on car/appliance/furniture REPAIR, tickets to
Raiders' and Niners' games, and golf green fees:

http://tinyurl.com/6gpkzm

"Here is how much the governor's tax proposal would raise this fiscal year:

$3.5 billion: Temporary sales tax increase of 11/2 cents. The rate would fall back to the current level after three years.

$528 million: Oil severance tax of 9.9 percent of the value of each barrel of oil produced in California.

$357 million: Broadening the sales tax to include vehicle, appliance and furniture repair; golf and veterinarian services; tickets for sporting events and amusement parks.

$293 million: Increasing alcohol excise tax.

$150 million: Increasing annual vehicle registration fee by $12."

Wahoo for Yahoo!

CP, hope you haven't forgotten about you know what for Nov 27-Dec 4. Getting close, in price, to accumulation time. Yield is sitting pretty at 12% as per close today. Have you poked through their financials yet?

wavesmash- you guys are good, man...in honor of things "brewin'" i'm going to weigh in:

There once was a blogger named Cara
In his kitchen a faucet named Farah
When you turned on the tap
In place of the usual c---
Would flow 10 ounces of Nevada, Sierra

..I hope Vad now has a waterproof keyboard....

Three items...

David bravo on your points.... I just read Mauldin's letter and he points that we are expecting a large rally and he would guestimate that to start in January as the hedge fund redemptions are winding down. We have been expecting one sooner than that, stay tuned....

Cuban - he owned 6.3% of a canadian company traded on the USA exchange - to piggy back off of Shark's comment, he wasn't an insider of 10% or more.
This whole situation is quite odd because he is a smart man and the SEC seems to think they have a slam dunk as Cuban's attorneys believe that there isn't much of a case.
TIme will tell, but this is a civil offense not criminal so no sing-sing for him unless he lies... Hopefully his representation won't allow him to put a foot in his mouth.

Mackinaw - IMO, i agree with the 500ish range for gold. Maybe higher in the 600s maybe lower in the 400s... My opinion is based on my belief that all markets will and are going to continue to unwind. as long as those comex theories hold, the price will go down..

The usa can print all they want, remember so is EU, UK, Japan, China and every other g20 nation.
Since the trade deficit is going down on a monthly basis, there will be a lack of global dollars (yeah, sounds weird right) and the demand will pick up for those dollars as a safe haven. We could see the USD get stronger over the next half year... give or take. The only problem for the usa is how are they going to fund these record deficits... foreigners may lose their taste for it, we could spend less, citizens and entities could buy, rates could go up or the fed could monetize them...
all of the above are good except the fed monetizing the debt...

In our history we have had high debt levels and got out of the woods over the next decade or so... I hope we can accomplish that with out war or a bad recession...

either way i still believe deflation/de-leveraging/unwinding is happening. the velocity of money has stopped and credit contraction is upon us. the central banks can't even phase the train...
those are my thoughts from reading a bunch of stuff...

There once was a stock from Detroit,
whose CEOs would manage maladroit,
try as they may,
they could not keep at bay,
the wrath of the short seller' exploit.

Mark Cuban's site on the bailout fund

http://bailoutsleuth.com/

"Some readers have asked why BailoutSleuth keeps publishing these roundups of banks that were chosen for government aid. We're doing it because the Treasury Department is not. That agency has taken the position that it will disclose the investments only after the money changes hands - a policy that makes it harder for the public to raise objections."

Don't forget to read October's archives.

http://bailoutsleuth.com/2008/10/

this is the first time i've noticed the RSI-7, RSI-14 AND RSI-21 values for the Nasdaq Big Ten all essentially in the thirties...

http://tinyurl.com/3yvzkg

Being an Engineer I didn't fair to well in English 101, but you guys are making it more interesting by the moment!

...and not encouraging that 6 of the 10 are at new lows at this time. This is either a great time to accumulate these stocks or an opportune time to short the whole complex (i.e. QID).

My favourite quote of the year.

"Kashkari: I don’t think it's a good use of taxpayer money to put taxpayer capital into an institution that's going to fail- "

http://tinyurl.com/6z3yjs

Tough job.

The video
http://tinyurl.com/5w9pt7

The conclusion?
www.failblog.org

We talked about rules of trading in the last few days. What about things to avoid?

How to Fail As a Trader in 10 Easy Steps
http://tinyurl.com/6mc5xu

The Cuban story gets better.
http://tinyurl.com/5lbkzx

SEC Reality TV to come?

http://tinyurl.com/35u8y4

I hope Mark picks up Wall St Warriors.

After a day of constant bad news being reported by the financial press, I thought it may be nice to hear some good news from one of America's most consistently innovative companies (that happens to be trading at 12 year lows). I'm talking about Intel of course. It has just released the world's fastest desktop chip ever (and it does not consume more power). http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081117/20081117007045.html?.v=1

150 years ago the big technical announcement of the day was a transcontinental telegraph. The world has sure come a long way.

China, U.S. to collaborate on solar energy technology.

http://tinyurl.com/5lyhzd

Caveat exemptor

When you run with the bulls, no one cares
'Til the bottom falls out of your shares
And the lesson one learns,
In the case of Bear Stearns,
Is you're victim to very stern bears!

http://tinyurl.com/6ns864
I recommend this interview with Ross Healy, Cdn Asset manager for 43 years. He has a wealth of experience to share. For the first 10 years of his career was a bear market like we're in. Buy and hold did not work, cycled thru stocks, often didn't hold for long. Dividends were a big piece of the return. TCK: Don't turn the mgmt over to a Bay St guy....he trashed the balance sheet, a departure from the careful way that Keevils ran the company for years. Think about it, Lindsay couldn't see what was coming? What does that say about Bay St/Wall St. wisdom and foresight. What was he thinking?

lol - CP!

Once when the SEC banned a Short
the result was a terrible Sort
of crazy vertical dive
that clearly had no jive
a left a huge smudge on my Port.

Rob.

So,
Why is it again that the SEC only goes after small potatoes like Mark Cuban or Martha Stewart?

Oh yeah, insider trading is more destructive than outright fraud.

It just proves once again that the SEC is bought and paid for.

Rob.

In continuation from my China/U.S solar collaboration, i found two more links. odd that I missed these stories today. Sorry i didnt find them sooner:

"French government proposes new incentives to greatly increase solar power, other renewables"
http://tinyurl.com/6x2gwj

"California seeks one third renewable power by 2020"
http://tinyurl.com/563j55

There's a man who lives by the sea
His treasures he shares for free

While many read, gamble, and wish
The others he teaches to fish

Buy, sell, or hold ....
Just remember to own some gold

Cheers ! Atlantis 2009 !!!!

Mack - Price is now $3.25?

Several bloggers here spell gold with a capital G. Thats a semantic style that I reserve for God, Mother, Father, book titles and personal/city/state names but little else. Oh, in recent years I always capitalize Earth out of reverence.

Just an observation. I do like gold and silver. Today I am hating SLW, however.

EPS -10?

cyderman - good point. but i guess my point is they're certainly operating pretty well even in this tough cycle. makes you wonder if people have over exaggerated the impact of the downturn.

There once was a hot dog on Bay Street
Who thought it was a slam dunk on Main Street
When he was crowned king of Teck
It became a train wreck
Saddled with debt it couldn’t meet.

teamonfuego, re shippers in general.
I think one of the main worries with them is the large amount of debt involved, together with the large supply of ships on order and due for delivery in the next few years.
No position in dry shippers but long (and underwater - ugh!) ONAV which is a petroleum products shipper - thinking falling price of oil will stimulate demand for refined product. GL with NM

cyderman - some of these shippers saw the downturn in advance and moved into longer term contracts. and i believe DRYS, for example, moved into some offwater drilling if i'm not mistaken (through an acquisition), further diversifying it's revenue stream...

Oh my God what have I started?
Limericks on this board are now imparted,
They are all second to none,
Bill I'm sorry for what I've done,
but the blogger automated has now departed!

Thank you one and all for your contributions but I can imagine Bill et ors have had enough. It's been fun, something we all need in these testy times. Perhaps we can have a limerick competition over a few beers in the Bahamas in April.

Expect another short squeeze; more short call issued will come due in coming days if market does not recover.
Also many stop are being taken over.
Many stocks are going for under $5, and buy rule some mutual fund and instauration cannot hold stock under 5
City cutting 50000 workers even after big bailout, why put money in auto if we are going to have same result like citi
Nas is oversold, let’s see if oversold becomes more oversold or bounce back?
There is no visibility, again stock trading (S&P) at P/E of 11. Can trade P/E of 20 and talking head may say we are looking forward P/E in 2009 and 2010 and stock may move higher
Or stock may go and trade at P/E of 5. And expert might say it is reasonable for this type of environment and stock may move lower. beauty is in the eye of beholder?
Situation is fluid and will be interesting in coming days

re: sun also rises
Last time I looked up I noticed the remarkable availability and predictability of sunlight. My folks had solar hot water in the seventies. Now that photovoltaic systems have become almost commonplace, cities are discussing renting rooftops! Read more at www.USGBC.org. Green building is here for good.

http://tinyurl.com/5w94oy

Awesome, baby!

Anybody for switching to haiku???

SPX chart since 1925 gives an interesting perspective of the the drops then, and now (log scale):

http://nexalogic.com/spx-all.jpg

Same, but since 1989 only:

http://nexalogic.com/spx-89.jpg

You'd think all hell has broken loose based on the last one.