Cara 100 Update:

DIS - Downgraded to Neutral @ Wunderlich

Responsibility- tax hikes and spending cuts is what it comes down to...I'm OK with both IF the spending decisions are made responsibly as well...

I'm seeing some tentative signs of a bottom on my charts. I'll likely wait for the employment report to come out before trading, but I think you're right about forward looking traders.

now that's one bad employment report

U.S. Unemployment Rate Climbs to 14-Year High of 6.5%

"the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Employers cut 240,000 workers after a loss of 284,000 in September, the biggest two-month slide since 2001."

Um why is anyone suprised? Isnt the best time to seek values when everyone has thrown up the white flag?

In Whitehorse, YK they cannot find any buyers for their recyclables, in Alberta even those with a higher IQ are finding job hunting a challenge and in Vancouver residential sales are down 55% as compared to October last year.

It snowed here yesterday, maybe it is "Buy when it snows"? Unfortunately, today it will probably go.

But it is Joni Mitchell's birthday today.

Have a Great Day and enjoy the discourse.

Doug

The report came out @8:30

does anyone really believe the 240,000 job loss number? I mean, they practically doubled the August / September losses in their revision. After revisions, there could have been some 350k losses.

i still find it hard to say the bottom is in when people are losing jobs this quickly...

buying pre open WHR AET MDR ANN HNP

do your own homework

Total unemployment is now 11.8 percent:

Here's the link:

http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab12.htm

In U6 column, check "Seasonally Adjusted" then "Retrieve Data"

Hey Doug MacKay, there is snow on the ground and -20 here north of Yellowknife. I hope your predictions are correct.

To all of you North of 60, enjoy the global warming er, wind chill...........

2nd - Responsibility - I'd prefer to see a genuine effort towards spending control prior to tax hikes. What is an acceptable cutoff level for taxation, 80~150% of income? Let's see a reduction in waste first, then we'll revisit hikes.

Yeah Pookster, but if you cut waste, you have to cut the 50% of government employment that is welfare/make-work jobs.

CP- the 19% sales tax in Germany sounds steep to us, but if we're talking about universal health care and improving our infrastructure, it would pay off..

This is a perfect time for the companies that are going to move forward to cut the deadwood out. They are very familiar with the process about to take place.

2nd:

Go look at the other income taxes and gas taxes. On average a single person in Germany will pay 70% of their income in taxes

AH, yes rugger!

Similar to when one is looking at investing in the markets you need to be cognizant of the time frame; when one is predicting the disappearance of snow one must be cognizant of latitude.

I am at 49° 07' just north of the Idaho panhandle.

cheers

ambac going up

Closed out LVS puts.

2nd_ave,
It takes years to fire an employee in Europe and even then unemployment benefits are solid. Maybe we can throw that also in before considering 19% sales tax. Increased taxes - we will have more prison guards (case in California) and nothing will be done towards healthcare & infrastructure? I am yet to see any infrastructure improvement since Arnold took over....

nemo- all I'm saying is if we want to do right by our kids, then the party's over (at least for my lifetime); we should present them with something resembling (in terms of the budget, the roads/bridges/canals/waterways, air/water quality, access to/quality of healthcare) the early sixties...

Doug: 63° 34’ about 220 north of Yellowknife. The air is clean and crisp. Now, to get busy and drum up enough courage to make my first options trade...

I like "Leave it to Beaver"

Lawrence Welk, too.

2nd - Fine, perhaps you'll pay 2x and cover for my tax hike instead of volunteering my money so quickly. I'm suggesting respect for the rights of others. It's the "well it's ok, I'll just pay more" mentality that gets us into these messes and promotes irresponsibility. Once I'm convinced the spending approach reflects contributors efforts nearly equally then I might begin changing my mind.

Infrastructure and health care - Whatever happened to the $5 Trillion surplus which was causing such "concern" back in 2001? The rate of consumption has been and will continue being way out of control if citizens don't first demand respect and accountability. If we had these first, bridges wouldn't be falling down around us.

could the market be up because Obama is meeting with key financial advisors today?

"All these stimulus programs will be paid by debt, which will be paid by future generations".

My thoughts- Correct, and it is a theme for investing now, but it is a sad commentary on this generation. During WW2, the population sacrificed for the future (us). This generation gives the bill for current programs, war, perscription drugs, stimulus, tax cuts, you name it, to its kids. It is a disgrace of untold proportion.
Frank

Healthcare would be a relative canard considering the largest healthcare per person are at life's end. Seniors will still be sucking most of the budget for that.

The only way I'd willing pay more in taxes is if there were equal percentage cuts in government money received by people.

Reform has to be equal or else it will fuel animosity. I also think that every household should pay at least some taxes so they have a stake in honest government. Right now we have nearly 40% of tax filers who owe no tax and actually get money back. Those people will never vote for honest government, only for more handouts.

Cutting spending means people receiving government money have to do with less just like we who will have to pay more taxes will have to do with less.

Rob.

Unfortunately, babyboomers run the country, so of course they'll be spending on themselves.

dont think im all negative on gold these days gang,

as mentioned before i was looking for subtle signs of a possible trend change:

this is the 3rd session this week where the gold miners have fallen less than the broad market on weak days and risen more on strong days. this is just an estimation comparing the SPY and the GDX/HGU

i know its early in the session but i still believe the devil is in the details here, and that an advance by gold will be marked by an advance in the miners on strong volume. a plunging broad market has seen fit to take everything down, but a sideways or drifting market may provide the neurtral backdrop for the miners to really see if money is coming back.

spot gold may just bounce in a zone during this period and may begin to follow the miners if they mount any serious advance. who knows. its still way too early to say, but my interest is gaining momentum. a few weeks of this and we may be onto something.

gold falling out of bed below $700 would probally kill this theory. but basing patterns in most things might be our canvas while the miners paint a picture.

am i loosing it or does this make any sense??

teamonfuego,
LVS great trade!

What made you go long especially when the market was going up big time ?

Frank- you got it, man...no one wants to make any sacrifices...

the president elect indicated he would employ a scalpel and not an ax on wasteful programs….that was a tell.

Re hs bottoms

I think the hui is a 60m hs bottom, others like yri appear to be as well. Per stockhouse definitions I look for strong volume up to the right shoulder neckline with strong oba and acc/dis during the right shoulder construction.
I bought yri 2 days ago a little to early, it looked like it was about to break out. I should have looked at the 6om hui macd in retrospect because it was bearish at that time. Now it is turning up and seems to be in sinc with other pm's. So maybe this stands a good chance now?

http://xs433.xs.to/xs433/08455/hui588.png

The 4hr chart of gold shows a large triangle that price fell from yesterday, a rise back up throught the bottom rail at 745ish might yell out game on!

nemo - Perhaps we should raise the tax for dying! There's plenty of money sent by citizens to government, it just hasn't been spent wisely because citizens haven't demanded accountability.

CP- the inheritance tax is the one tax i would eliminate, as it completely benefits the children of the deceased...

Sandy - I had shorts/puts on LVS from 13ish. I watched it go to $16 in euphoria, but it was merely a function of time and price. my puts were going to expire shortly and i got a 50% scalp on the price.

I did a screen for highly leveraged companies during the top 3-4 days ago and LVS stuck out.

I still think TM is highly overvalued.

And the market IMO is in anticipation of Obama's press conference/meeting this afternoon.

meant "is up in ancticipation..."

the way i look at the sales tax-> it allows us (you could say it forces us) to spend on projects we would be unable to as individuals; it's easy for a few million of us to buy cars every 5 years, or lattes every morning-> by adding taxes to those purchases, it may cause us to cut back by a year on the car or a two days a week on the lattes, as the taxes then get spent on infrastructure projects...of course, all of this presupposes a responsible and well-managed governing body...

..it's almost like the forced savings we impose on our kids-> we allow them to spend freely up to 50% of what they make working part-time...the remainder must be applied to college (or, in the case of the six year old, 50% of his weekly allowance must be saved towards the things he really wants to buy...so you could say we 'tax' them, but the 'taxes' are used to fund what we consider important for their futures...

Bill Cara: "I hope to see Palin return, but I will never say that for Corzine or Bair".

I have been reading your blog for a long time and have far too much respect for you to say anything disrepectful but that statement blows my mind.

I don't know if Corzine is the best choice but Obama could do a lot worse. I know he's ex-GS but at least he's a Democrat and as a New Jersey resident, I appreciate that he provided us some much needed property tax relief in the form of increased rebates. More importantly, he implemented it with income limits on eligibility so it wasn't just a Bush-type giveaway to the wealthy but rather targeted to those who could actually use the relief.

I believe you are sincere in your quest for social equity but that remark about a loon like Palin disappointed me to the extent that I won't be reading your blog anymore.

Never the less, I wish you continued success in your current and future endeavors.

FXP buy limit 76.

No position.

dr. cosa, just to put things in an easy perspective, if you took the gold price of $650 and divided it by the low of $255, then you get a certain ratio. Apply that ratio to the oil price, and you would need to see an oil price below $50. Even at today's spot you get an oil price comparison around $50.

If gold goes down, then everything else is going down. The theory was that money printing would cause prices to spiral upwards. So in reverse, we are seeing prices spiral downwards. A simple conclusion you can infer from this is that money-creating is not, in fact occurring just yet, and that the money supply is dwindling faster than central banks can shovel it out the door.

Markets must reach a capitulation bottom for a rally to occur in prices, and I believe that its related directly to the collapse of oil prices. (not housing.) And that may indicate that the money printing is taking hold, finally.

So why is gold supported while everything else is losing value? Low interest rates, wild declines in currencies. And the fact that gold is actually trading below its inflation adjusted value for some weeks.

Corzine was one of the original problems.

Don't let the door hit you on the way out RMX!

May as well tax for dying, the unborn are being taxed to death before birth.

No wonder they're so pissed off by the time they're 18.

I honestly think most everyone here is in major denial about our financial position and the services 'we have already used' and MUST pay for.

When your CC is maxed out you aren't left with a bunch of nice choices, you pull it in and hunker down for the long haul. Good luck telling the CC co. you want them to manage your money better before paying your bill. That's the rough analogy. Bummer, huh?

CP,

In Scandinavia several years ago my neighbor (from Norway) told me the government assumed people were cheating on the taxes (judged by lifestyle) and would assess more than 100% at times.

Things to look forward to?

Bill knows his loons (& geese too.)

Where did the geese pictures go anyway?

bought FXP at 81.76.

Yep...and confiscating 401k's

RMX - go back to reading DailyKos and Mother Jones to get your dose of left wing political talk

More economic news . . . not bad.

In addition to the unemployment report today, avg. hourly earnings met consensus of 0.2% and the avg. workweek also met consensus of 33.6 hrs.

http://tinyurl.com/8kpv2

bsi
Good tip on FXP. Will put a stink bid

Yahoo answers comes through again.

Do you think Palin would make me Secretary Of The Treasury ?
I liked to play monopoly as a child so that should make me qualified.

http://tinyurl.com/5jfo8s

Google doesn't have the answers that Yahoo does.

http://answers.google.com/answers/

Maybe Facebook has the answers?
http://tinyurl.com/594m2p

Answers.com comes through.

http://www.answers.com/sarah%20palin
Associated Press (September 11, 2008). "Palin leaves open the option of war with Russia", Boston Herald.

So are we better off with an Obama regime in the world or a McCain regime?

I guess it's a non-issue now.

I've been here a long time and I'm not going anywhere, but I disagree with Bill's Palin call.
I don't question him on many things, but put a fork in Sarah, she will never see a nomination for the highest office in the land.
Even her own party's competitors will tear her apart now that they know what she doesn't.
Sorry fans, her curtain was pulled back 100%.

thx for the observation F6,

quick question, Minyanville just posed the question for this chart asking if this was an "igor-style" h/s pattern in gold. ive never heard of an igor style h/s pattern, what does you guys think of this and is it implying a bullish or bearish outcome:

https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/November08/sg2008110648435.gif

EEV buy limit 84

sucker's bear mkt rally? I think so.

Rob,
Out of my ultrashorts, have put a bid for FXP, lets see.

Craig,

re: Paying for the bailouts, unemployment, fiat currency

I propose we all admit we are now working for the government — including we retirees.

It is a lot like my 96-year-old great uncle described to me of his days mining coal. THE COMPANY set the hours, the price per ton, paid only in company scrip.

Workers could only buy at THE COMPANY STORE where THE COMPANY set the prices, provided the choices and accepted only company scrip.

My Social Security (scrip) goes directly to my bank. The cost of Medicare is set by and deducted by "THE COMPANY". THE COMPANY decides how much of my deferred tax retirement account I must withdraw and can raise the tax as they see fit (so much for the deferring benefit).

--------------

Something else to think about: Whether you are pro-life or pro-choice, it has been deemed OK to extinguish those who may be an inconvenience at an early age. As cost escalate and the number of non-productive citizens accumulate, how big a step will it be to get rid of mouthy old farts like me, a bit early?

If I rebel like Bill Ayers did, will the government be as forgiving? I could use a bit of tenure today.

Craig,
Sarah Palin has a path to the Senate (self-appointment/Stevens),but I can't forsee her as a National candidate, either. Of course, I firmly believed McCain was shut out from Presidential politics after 2000.

Craig - Take a look at what Mark Warner accomplished while Governer of Va., and you'll find a majority of that wasn't by simply increasing taxes. It's an impressive story well worth reading, and I predict Mark Warner will be a candidate you will vote for some day.

Jaketh - I think McCain was shut out from prez politics after his selection of Palin. If he selects Romney I think we're talking about President McCain.

sell yri.wt.c@.83

long WTN@1.49

Igor-style, meaning one hunch in the left shoulder? Too early to tell on a right shoulder.

I prefer looking at the 2008 weekly chart as being very similar to the 2006 weekly chart, except for determined volatility here in October/November. The number of weeks are the same, the chart pattern is the same, and I find that the CAD gold chart shares the same profile between 2008/2006 on a weekly basis.

Remember also last October also saw the gold price drag in the same season, the difference between 2007/2008 has been very wild currency moves.

GENERAL MTRS (GM).....HALTED

GM loses 4.2 billion this 3rd quarter . . . cash burned thru 6.9 billion during 3rd Qtr (2.3bil a month)

GM........DOWN .41 CENTS

Teamonfuego,
Romney didn't want that job, IMO. He was, and is, all about 2012. But certainly he would have made it a contest, especially if McCain had been HIS Veep.

Man, if we could get over the inconvenience of admitting our kids are human and need reproductive education and birth control, then the idea of eliminating the inconvenient (which oddly enough falls during Dem admins) would rarely happen. When are we going recognize that we are NOT going to stop one of the two most powerful impulses in the natural world with silly moral notions that haven't worked since Adam and Eve? It's like saying you are going to stop eating until you get married. We could save untold millions and endless suffering if people would grow up.
I think it's ironic that we have to save fetuses but once they are born they and their poor mother are on their own, until the kid makes 18, and then we want him for the military where we surely value his life.....right?
There is a scary hypocracy there.

RMX-Later

Newsweek magazine

My wife watched the Today show early yesterday morning prior to leaving for work. She mentioned there was an interesting interview with a Newsweek reporter/editor about a 7 part series the magazine currently has on the campaigns of 3 candidates.

Newsweek had an agreement with Hilary’s, McCain’s and Obama’s campaigns to tag along for the last year with the understanding nothing could be published until after the election.

FWIW, Newsweek apparently found Hilary’s and McCain’s campaigns were disorganized, while Obama’s was organized.

Don’t know if it’s mentioned in one of the 7 part series, but, per the Today show interview, Palin allegedly thought Africa was a country and initially argued with handlers about it.

Ooohh...anyboy see the down spike on FXP. Was that blowing stops???

Yeah, that impulse doesn't get stopped until you get married.

RMX-What happened to the CHANGE salesjob that Obama gave? talk to me....Corzine is NOT change....

Seamus,

How does that help me trade the market today?

Ray

We want better health care
We want better education system
We want better road/bridge/transportations system
We wanes tax cut
We do not want to pay higher tax
So, government may do all of these with borrow money, but we do not wants to borrow from unborn. And future generation.
I do not think we really know what we want?

Seamus:
http://tinyurl.com/5qu5lc
I would include the quote from Fox News reporter Carl Cameron but it would disturb many. I know it disturbed me. And from Fox News, no less.

[Bill Cara note:

I admit to receiving some harsh personal letters and blog comments for my comments pro and con on Gov. Palin. A professional woman (anon) wrote me today to follow up with what she saw as my support for Gov. Palin. I wrote in response:

"Re Gov. Palin, I think all politicians and corporate executives are driven by ambition and seek to divide and conquer, stooping as low as they feel they have to or are told to by their handlers. In her case, she was awful and clearly unprepared for such an important campaign. Weaknesses that are hidden by more experienced people were exposed in her.

I often said to my colleagues that there must be a million better qualified women in America so why was she chosen?

But it was on the last day (when they knew all was lost and her handlers probably left her to speak for herself) that she communicated well, and that we got a glimpse of what she really might stand for (since few people know). That, and only for that reason did I say, "Wow!"

As to her personal values, and those of her husband, I suspect they are diametrically opposite mine, and I gather yours too. She would offend any woman who believes that abortion may be essential for a multitude of reasons. The bottom line, however, is that the Gov. did draw crowds, and got people involved.

My remark was more to show that the Republican Party needs to rethink it's platform and put people on the world stage who will deliver their message. Gov. Palin is such a candidate because I could see on the day before the election that she is a superb communicator, not at all like the pathetic individual we saw being interviewed by Katie Couric. She was, I believe, like a child being thrown into an adult situation, trying to think what would mommie and daddy and grannie and grandpa want me to say. She looked at Katie and couldn't answer the simple question, what newspapers do you read. The pressure of the moment, not the question or the questioner, caused her to break down. I empathize because anybody who ever tried to achieve more than they were capable of at that moment have had their head handed to them. It's all part of growing up.

I believe she would do as told. Sen. McCain, on the other hand, has always been the maverick, and he is also in my view a poor communicator and someone very much into his own self-importance. He would have made a terrible President. Gov. Palin, however, might after three years of counseling become a serious contender. She might grow into that position.

As to my position; if I were American, I would be voting against her nomination as GOP leader unless she was there to represent a platform I could accept. If I were Pres-elect Obama, I might even reach out to her with an important position with respect to the Environment. Regardless what you or I think of her, or any politician who seeks power, she accepted the call of duty for her country and she tried her best. I wish we could say the same for many others.

I value your views, and because many others are probably wondering why I wrote the "Wow" comment and my subsequent remark that I hope to see her on the Washington scene again, I will append in the blog today my response to you here.

Respectfully, /Bill ]

Ray

Posted as a possible weekend reading if interested. Not expressing opinion.

As to market, perhaps insight into the president elect and how he runs things.

For today only, president elect press conference this afternoon: message clarity important as well as body language. Market skittish and volatile as you know.

Unemployed..........=individual not contributing to the tax base by no fault of his/her own, simply put, a casualty of 21st century corporate greed. 6.7%
Government employee......=individuals not contributing to the tax base because he or she has learned to manipulate the free give away systems built into this government. 16%
What is the true unemployment number??????????

YAHOO looses the google survival crutch and Jerry Yang promptly releases a news tidbit that "MSFT's best option would be to buy YHOO." He saves the YHOO share holder value by almost 10%. Great manipulation Yang!
Today, MSFT Ballmer promptly issues his own news tidbit.... "We are not interested in going back and re-looking at an acquisition.""We made an offer, we made another offer, it was clear Yahoo didn't want to sell the business, and we moved on," thus pulling YHOO shareholder value down 16.15% in a matter of seconds. Greater manipulation Ballmer!
The games CEO's play with share holders money.
Just last week Ballmer said at a news conference, "an acquisition of YHOO makes perfect sense economically."
One can only assume the ball is in Yang's court now! Let it be said here first on Bill Cara.....Yang is going to go down in history as one the the single most stupid CEO's in history if 4 months ago he thumbed his nose at a 33.00 a share buy out from MSFT, and is forced to sell that struggling company for a rumored 20.00 a share.

how is PAlin's quote any different that both McCain and Obama fabricating the facts in their debates....let;s move on....geesh

nemo

actually the impulse continues but involves someone else, catherine deneuve, for example.

Maybe Bill just thought Palin was nice to look at?

[Bill Cara note:

My reply can be read above.]

Craig,
Respect for every person is rooted in respect for human life which begins when the live seed meets the live egg: there is no point at which it is not human life.
Yes, unwanted children are begun both in and out of marriage. (Who knows how many of us were unwanted children in the beginning?)
But, the remedy must not be to end the child's life, however inconvenient, anymore than we should undertake to end the lives of criminals, the elderly, or even unproductive day traders.
Foundational principles are important, and worth suffering some inconvenience for.

Tango6:

She might be getting a tad long in the tooth, but a classic beauty.

CHANGE - The more things change... the more they stay the same. Corzine? please don't make the first decision a poor decision!

"I hope to see Palin return...." Ugh, what a scary thought. Sorry Bill, I don't know what you see in her. Just seems like a cheerleader for the same kind of shallow thinking we've had the last eight years. But maybe you are right--if so I'll give a big shout-out to ya!

I took a snapshot of the weekly commodities futures chart of gold, since this is the quickest way to get a glance at the gold market in $US. Note that the amount of participation in the COMEX is at an all-time low.

In addition, since Jim Sinclair's website is not on the web since a few days, take a moment to remark on the incredible decline in the number of outstanding contracts in the gold sector COT, we are looking at possibly less than 100k. Dan Norcini's charts and analyses were excellent. They're a helpful resource that will be missed:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/3010872176/sizes/o/

Commodities Futures Charts:

http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php

I wonder if the margin requirements are still as high as they were a few weeks ago, since the price has come off, and participation is so low.

I think it is just pathetic how people buy into the media's lambasting on Gov Palin. You must be the same people who listen to stock brokers. Bill preaches almost every day to think for yourself and not be lemmings waiting for someone to tell you what to think. Lucky there are a enough free-thinkers to bring back Palin to further torture the dimwits who want to hand over all personal responsibility to the government.

On a market note, not buying yet.

[Bill Cara note:

Re Gov. Palin, please read my note above. Let's move on.]

Jaketh,

That may or may not be true. Having said that, whereas Nature used to take care of issues of population, man now interferes. Whereas if parents could not care for their children, they would die or be given up for adoption. Now, they get paid to have children.

My thought is that we should put as much thought into preventing that meeting when it is unintended. Then we avoid needless unsolvable and divisive Constitutional debates.
The fact is, the mother decides if it is a human or not, it is in her body and there is no changing that. You don't get to choose for her or Terry Shiavo, why is that difficult? Frankly it's none of my business and none of yours either. That's the beauty of America.
Wouldn't it piss you off if pregnant mothers suddenly decided to make your life choices for you? Like if you get to have a gun? That would be ironic.

I'll answer the Palin vs Obama vs McCain logic....

There is a huge difference between being totally ignorant and thinking you know, and knowing but not necessarily letting on how bad you know it is. The two Senators had knowledge and were being politicians. Palin was simply adrift in a sea of ignorance.

So from my observation, Palin is either grossly incompetent at extemporaneous conversation, or she's a dim bulb. Either way, she is definitely not someone I want as the replacement leader of the United States. She's not a bad person, but - really I'd like to set a higher standard for the job. Perhaps for Republicans, after Bush II the bar has been set so low that Palin seems reasonable?

Anyway, back to trading... is anyone putting in a bid for GM or F?

fran six
jim sinclair and dan norcini are still there
my old link did not work so i googled
voila

thnx, jstep

Just can't seem to get onto that website.

Sold puts in TM that I bought before their earnings. My thinking is that while the earnings were brutal and should mark the company down to $45/share, the spector of a GM bankruptcy, which is being more and more accepted, could push millions of car buyers into TM's hands...

Fran,
Gotta enter www. first, for some reason.

wave - I was thinking AMD... Any takers/holders?

Maybe many of you did not read the story of Sarah Palin's birth scenario regarding her son Trig.
The fact that she boarded a plane while she was in some form of labor gave many woman a bad feeling about her judgement. Her desire to give a speech and board a plane rather than get to a hospital and have a doctor check out her labor borders on pathological behavior. Remember a 44 year old woman carrying a down syndrome child is considered an at risk pregnancy. On a very elementary level most woman who heard this story could not support a woman who would risk the life of her own child for her own ambition. This was never discussed in the media because no journalist was ever allowed to question her about this story.

“She's not a bad person, but - really I'd like to set a higher standard for the job. Perhaps for Republicans, after Bush II the bar has been set so low that Palin seems reasonable?”

Like someone who pals around with people who hate America, supports class warfare, and their major accomplishments are writing books about themself?

Change we can believe in?

Sorry for the mini-rant but I'm tired of the Palin bashing.

Palin bashers...

Her record in Alaska shows she has something we need in Washington...expose and get rid of those corrrupt officials. Washington is swimming with them...even though they can sound highly educated and "high-minded" like some of you like to hear.

Well...look where all of those smooth-talking representatives have taken us. Maybe it is time for someone outside of Washington to get voted in. Whether it is Sarah Palin, I am not sure yet. We need to see more of her...

Many of you are quick to call people ignorant...based on limited knowledge of the person. It is unfortunate.

FLR, FSYS up after results.... if the market is bearish, these will get back to oct levels

Fransix,

The gold chart (link) you posted with the seasonal pattern overlayed is striking. What I saw was that gold has inverted compared to the sesasonal pattern. Where did that chart come from and can you post one that isolates '08?

Dr Cosa, did you see the chart? Here's another link to Fransix's chart: http://tinyurl.com/5khu2p

Also Sinclair's website has changed and can now be reached at: http://www.jsmineset.com/

"Well...look where all of those smooth-talking representatives have taken us."

I'm dying to know who these rarities are! LOL!

You mean that smooth talker GW and "my friend" John? Boy even our smooth talking standards have been destroyed. At this point apparently anything looks good....like it's last call in America. According to the polls only other women sem to see through it. Men seem to be thinking about yesterday's lead topic. I don't think they have heard a word she has said.

Uh oh, upon scanning above I see Bill wants us to move on from the Palin discussion. Fair enough.

[Bill Cara note:

I think the conversation here has been fair, just too much. We need to focus on the market now that the election is history.]

where is the heck is the volume today in energy and mining stocks?

Bill, it's like watching paint dry at the moment...

looking at puts to buy after what i think will be an obama bounce.

I really enjoy all the discussion about gold here. Before I came, I really did not understand the linkage between the dollar and gold and interest rates, and I lost money because of that. Now I'm back to making money - or at least more aware of the linkages, and that's awesome.

I also particularly like Bill's observation that this is currently more of a trading environment than an investing environment.

In addition, his admonition to avoid confusing macroeconomic observations with trading daily prices is key as well. I used to get confused by that routinely. I still think the macro stuff does work, but it tends to take months or years to sort out, and there's a lot of price movement that happens between now and then.

Lastly, the data Bill posted about the massive rallies during the 20s and 30s during an overall down market was very convincing to me that money can be made - a lot of money - even during bad times, if you're attentive and focus more on prices and less on macro news items.

Davefairtex,
Money can be made in any market by a good trader. They keep continuously adjusting their positions/views to where the market is going. And they are also fast to react. To acquire that knowledge and skillset, i guess we all have to pay a high tuition fee through losses in the early part of the trading career

So what's going to happpen after Obama's first press conference as Prez elect?

I expect whatever he says will be taken in a positive light and boost the Dow.

(Will the overcoverage — first this first, that, be enough to shorten the honeymoon effect?)

Bill, do you have any perspective on this:

"Endeavour announces resignation of U.S Global and appointment of new chairman"
http://tinyurl.com/5q9kmh

Disclosure: long EDV.TO

regarding jim sinclairs site, ive been a reader of his site everyday the past 4 years,

i appreciate what trader dan does effort-wise but i find his comments to be either too open and directionless or unsupported by any facts.

he continually atributes price movements to PPT and "enemies of gold/legacy banks" but gives little to support his moves. he points out resistance points that are just fib points and says open-ended stuff like " gold has to hold this level or the shorts will take control and bring it down to the $700 level, but this may not happen because this market is crazy, so we will see with the price action, it could go either way".

????

bsi87 question on fxp

since this is a foreign tracking etf how do we get the daily flucuations since this foriegn market has already closed, i believe no question is a stupid one but this just may be:)

Doc,
Maybe Dan is trying to balance out Jim's certitude (1200,1650 .72, .62. .52)?

TGIF - it's an ETF based on the ADRs of those stocks, not their actual price movements in their local markets.

cyderman
That is very interesting, thanks for sharing the piece on Frank Holmes.

New York Times
Elliot Spitzer is cleared, no charges will be filed, case closed, ... http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/nyregion/07legal.html?th&emc=th

[Bill Cara note:

My query to the email address filed with Typekey for bigwad was rejected. I wanted to say privately what I now must do publicly. Blog flame is not permitted here. I really don't have the time to manage the Discourse, so I will automatically edit or delete such examples. If any person feels hard done by, they can write me to discuss... Soon, this blog will be on a Drupal platform and Typekey will no longer be used. Participants in the Discourse will be required to register a name and valid e-mail address on my server and it will be checked from time to time. If it fails to work, the privilege of participating will be lost.]

thanks team

Today, a little while ago, I doubled my holdings of AZM.V, at US $0.34. It's hard to believe that my first purchase of AZM.V in the fall of 2007 was at $4.30! (after it fell 50% from its peak, which I thought had justified my purchase) I did trade it a couple of times between $3 and $3.50 to reduce my original purchase price to $3.80, but that's about it. So I doubled my position now with a plan to sell it at the end of December (hopefully for the same price or higher) and "write off" the loss on the original share purchase in 2007 for IRS purposes. There is also a remote hope that the credit conditions will improve in the next couple of months and AZM will double. :)

I did call the CEO of Azimut before my purchase and made sure that there are no solvency issues with it. He said that the fees their partners are paying to them for exploration exactly covers all AZM's expenses. There are no negative developments at the company that would justify the declining share price. In fact, they are making a steady progress in their exploration activities, approaching the critical mass of sufficient resources that could be sold to a mining company.

I think the main reason for the decline in AZM.V is the decline in the price of uranium. AZM.V holds mostly uranium properties, and its stock price chart on a 5-year scale looks almost the same as the uranium price chart, peaking in June 07. So AZM.V can probably be viewed as a VERY leveraged play on the uranium price.

re:FXP

I don't get too hung up about what the Hang Seng/ SSEC are doing.

Since the 26 WEMA (the LT trend) has been in an uptrend, I was watching for retracement to the 50/200 DEMA (the daily time frame I trade in) area before putting on a long position. Then I watched for divergences on the hourly chart. With a 21 point 10 day ATR, traders like this play.

Re: Governor Palin's political future:
G.W. Bush wasn't the sharpest knife in the drawer, either.

thanks for the info bsi, informative

Obama about to speak.

Live stream link
http://tinyurl.com/55tpmn

[Bill Cara note:

Hooray! Is that Paul Volker on the stage?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Volcker ]

To all of you owning Junior resource stocks in Canada, and have been obliterated be aware of a couple of salient points: 1) hedge fund redemption selling ends Nov 15 2)The Lehman bankruptcy: as a prime broker for many hedgies buying stock in Canada they go from being a client, to being an unsecured creditor. The trustee seized all the stock in the system and sells it out. This has been a pretty constant theme that will end once the Lehman stuff is sold.

Hecla is getting absolutely creamed on above avg volume for no apparent reason. Looking over their most recent quarterly report now...

Yield on the three month still falling. That would mean we may see a bankruptcy soon. Maybe GM? or GS or MS?

The short side may still be in play for next week at this rate.

Rob.

I'm still holding my GG puts but will dump them before the close and possibly buy puts on DDM and QLD or stay in cash for the weekend. It will depend on the lat half hour of trading.

Rob.

[Bill Cara note:

Hooray! Is that Paul Volker on the stage?]

Isnt he the 1st to our right, his left?

Comparison of indices against VIX/VXN show RSI 7 day around 50. IMO I'd be interested in opening short positions when those figures exceed 70.

I'm slightly bullish ST but neutral LT.

Hmm, probably related to Independance Lead Mine acquisition:

"Hecla will issue 6.9 million shares of its common stock to ILM"

which represents about 5% dilution. Doesn't justify 18% drop though i don't think

what, you don't recognize Tall Paul without the stogies? LOL

Rob,
Any particular reason why you buy put on QLD i/o call on QID?

The dog question very critical to running the country.

[Bill Cara note:

Back to the market --

You’ve all heard how bad the Great Depression was from a macro-economic perspective. But how many people have told you that after the 1928 crash through October 1939 there were six legitimate Bull markets where prices boomed?

How about from 11/13/29 until 4/10/30 (148 days) where the S&P 500 gained +46.8%. Then there was the time from 6/1/32 until 9/7/32 (98 days) where the S&P 500 gained +111.6%. After that came 2/27/33 through 2/6/34 (344 days) where the S&P 500 climbed +113.7%. That led to 3/14/35 through 3/6/37 (723 days) where the S&P 500 added +106.9%. Later, from 3/31/38 through 11/9/38 (223 days) there was a gain of +62.2% in the S&P 500. Finally, from 4/8/39 through 10/25/39 200 days) the S&P 500 gained +29.8%.

So that is six complete Bull market cycles during a time of economic trepidation. The average Bull lasted 289 days and the average gain was +78.5%. That’s six times during the worst ten-year period in 150 years.

During those times, the Bear market that followed took an average of 274.1 days and the average loss was -45.7%.

Now for the coup de gras! The 2007-2008 Bear Market lasted 365 days from Oct 11 2007 through October 10 2008 (about when I was telling you I had turned bullish) and the loss was -46.7%.]

I read comment there would be no personnel assignments in today's appearance.

bill - to your comments about bulls during the depression...didn't we just have a bull market run of 20%?

[Bill Cara note:

Would you believe it? The maximum extent of the recent move was +19.97% before it backed off. Technically that's not a Bull. In the last 26 "Bull" markets, only three gained less than +29.5% and none less than +21.4%, and that one was over 105 days, not the recent blip we experienced. All data courtesy of the Stock Trader's Almanac (2009, Wiley)... But you did make your point, and I appreciate it.]

RE: Press conference - well executed but the message to me was that nothing will really change until he becomes Prez.

David - Azimut AZM

They're selling near their offering price of 18 years ago! As a "project generator" AZM has17 uranium properties and 7 gold properties, yet in 2007 had only $1.25M in revenues and no profits.
How much time do you give a junior to prove itself? - I give them a lot less than 18 years! FWIW

Big run-up coming!

Not sure of where consideration of Corzine or Bair for Treasury Secretary came.

Sources I read/listen to have mentioned:

Summers, Geithner (sp) and Volker, although it's pointed out he is 81 and may not want the position.

Nice close fellas, good work!

good call, pookster

Shiva,
QLD is cheaper so the options are cheaper. I used to play QID when it was cheaper and QLD more expensive. That why I play UYG now for financials instead of SKF. And if I did play China, I'd be going with FXI instead of FXP.

Just my way of limiting the amount of capital I need to maximize my returns.

I just sold my GG puts for a 20% gain. I'm not buying anything, just sitting neutral through the weekend. My trading account is officially positive again. Whew!! That was tough. Next week, I'll aim to score some gains, since I was up almost 100% before the crash at DOW 10800.

Have a great weekend everyone. Time for some cold beers, a warm campfire, and hanging with friends. Cheers!!

Rob.

Wow, I got out of GG just in time. Any longer and I would have had to sell it just to break even.

Buying options is like riding lightning!!!

Rob.

bsi87

the fxp came within approx. $1 of your call, impressive.

Jock, then why did AZM.V reached its peak in 2007 after 17 years of existence? If it was all about proving themselves, then they should have peaked after several years and then declined to 0. How do you explain the almost perfect correlation between their share price and the uranium price? Don't you think the uranium price is the key driver of the Azimut share price?

I'm for Volker as Chairman of the Board of the Treasury Dept with a veto over the Treas Sec who would be one of those who were born after him and are tainted by being "part of the problem.
As Grant said, 80 is the new 70. No worries about his age. That makes him better, and more worth listening to. He has wisdom and nothing to prove. KISS!

[Bill Cara note:

Would you believe it? The maximum extent of the recent move was +19.97% before it backed off. Technically that's not a Bull. In the last 26 "Bull" markets, only three gained less than +29.5% and none less than +21.4%, and that one was over 105 days, not the recent blip we experienced. All data courtesy of the Stock Trader's Almanac (2009, Wiley)... But you did make your point, and I appreciate it.]

I know the S&P 500 is a better gauge, but the DOW did go up 24% and since people still use that as a gauge for bear/bull, i think the argument could be made that we had a brief bull market. given the fickle nature of this market and its similarities to that of the Depression era, doesn't it give people pause for concern longer term?

Bull Bear, it depends on your time scale, right?
On a daily basis we've had ups and downs with the worst bear period from Sept 25 to Oct 10 or so, down roughly 3000 points without a break. The only sustained bull run was Oct 26 to Nov 4, up more than 700 points.

On a weekly basis over the past year and a bit, we have had 31 down weeks and 24 up and when you total it out, we are down 5,800 points.

on a monthly basis, we have been down 9 of the last 13, up or flat only four, again totalling minus 5,800 points.

On a quarterly basis, we have been down every quarter since the 4th Q of 2007, again, 5,800 points, with no bull quarters to our name.

westcoaster

Don't disagree with you. Prior post references media's take.

IMO, Volker was the last great Fed Reserve Chief we had.

That is rough, eyeball math - not my best subject.

I wanted to get to the bottom of the uranium story. I tabulated the increased % of power. It looks to me that its still a long way off (assumption: increase in power output from new plants is equivalent to increase in uranium demand).

Year New Plants Cumulatitve % power increase
2008 3 0.37
2009 7 0.61
2010 7 2.07
2011 7 3.85
2012 9 6.30
2013 15 10.61
2014 12 14.10

So from 2007->2014 we will have a 14% increase in power output and that much uranium demand. Things don't get started much until 2010.

You can take a look at source data here
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf17.html

Volcker was the only great Fed Chief. Rest were lap dogs like Arthur Burns or G. William Miller. I thought Greenspan orchestrated his own problems and then bailed himself out by opening the money taps. He'll may go down as the worst.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._William_Miller

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_F._Burns

Obama respected his grandmother. Let's hope he listens to "grandpa"

Bill re bull markets: bring them on!
And (picky picky) it's coup de grace not gras, that's that pate thing...you live too well on the beach!

If Geithner and Penny Pritzker have key roles in Obama's administration, there's the tip-off that, as far as a big chunk of ongoing financial mis-management goes, the US is open for business as usual. Banking monkey business, that is.

That is not the CHANGE we NEED.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny_Pritzker#Superior_Bank_involvement

"Poor Penny, she got sucked into this"

Please.

"Penny Pritzker became chairman of the bank in 1991. Under Ms. Pritzker's chairmanship, the bank "embarked on a business strategy of significant growth into subprime home mortgages," according to a 2002 report by the United States Treasury Department.[13] She stepped down from the chairmanship (a largely titular role) in 1994 but continued to serve on the board of the holding company, Coast to Coast. In the months leading up to the 2001 seizure, the Pritzker family tried to work out a major recapitalization plan to "once again restore Superior's leadership position in subprime lending."[13]"

Miller fueled inflation but tried to prevent fellow members from lighting up at meetings. He was ahead of his time in that respect.

Chicken thanks for the closing bell rally alarm. Earlier in the day I'd hit buy rather than sell and ended up doubling a position I wanted to sell. I got out flat on those shares EOD. Whew!

What are people buying here that they think are good long term values? I'm trying to find a few good ones that I like for the long haul but I'm pretty spooked out about the economy and the potential for at least another year's worth of big job losses. Every person I know is working at a company whose job cuts are at least 10%.

The ones on my list (and price targets) are :
MCD - $45
CELG - $50
BBY - $16 to $18
BNI - $80 is the support...somehow I think this breaks the support and I'm trying to determine the potential downside
BIDU - $160
KO - $40

GM negotiations have just shifted, post election. Cerberus (aka the mythical monster)Capital's acquisition of GMAC remainder for Chrysler is off the table now as Michigan Gov. Granholm shows up on Pres. Elect Obama's press conference stage.

Even if Dems bailout is $25bln for all three, GM could still be forced to file as the cash burn looks like a magnesium fire now. Ford has more cash for now.

TM may gain more market share but first gov't would need to dispose of all those unsold cars GM has been leasing for the past 10 years. Ford too. Even Chrysler maybe. Resolution Trust Corporation on wheels. Would crush foreign profit margins and whose to say Granholm and Obama aren't hatching a Japanese trade sanction over dinner tonight?

Be careful out there.

teamon
Looking at TCK.B.TO 3x PE and 8.7% div yield. High $52, current $11.3. That's pretty severe beating for a major world class miner. Obviously div may be cut for a while, but shows what the company is capable of in a normal functioning economy. They produce a battery of raw materials, energy and metals.

Re TCK
BTW I haven't looked at their balance sheet after buying the rest of Fording fairly expensively, but I somehow think it is not in jeaprody.

dr.cosa - Question: Have you considered what lower mine production rates might do for POG? I did read something some months ago but lost track. I'm curious though, if by chance you've discovered anything meaningful on the subject.

i agree, Volcker at 80 is the perfect candidate...that makes him my Dad's contemporary, which (in my mind) was the last generation I truly respected (not that I have no respect for those of my generation in authority, but Boomers will know what I mean...bsi87 brought up the Beav-> I would take an 80-year-old Ward Cleaver over an adult Eddie Haskell any day)...

my Dad today is the same modest, responsible, self-sacrificing husband and father he always was, and still the man I turn to for advice...no surprise at all Obama would seek guidance from the same generation...

how did the DJIA perform during JFK's administration?

http://tinyurl.com/5fsnp3

My vote is for Volcker as well and you get him to pick a team to transition into the top positions at the Fed and Treasury (SEC?) and fade as Sr Advisor to those he placed. 2nd_ave nailed it, my Grandmother was of Volcker's generation and they were terrific examples of how hard work, decency and respect made many country's great. Many have voiced that Obama needs to use Young Turks to emphasize the seismic shift in policy, I disagree Volcker is hugely credible and would provide a very solid trust base going forward. Markets are ultimately emotion and good, ethical leadership is what is needed, now.

Great 32 min video http://tinyurl.com/5m43ej
I.O.U.S.A.

Call me crazy, and blame it on Obama's victory speech if you will, but count me in the Optimistic camp.

What tragic times these are.

Anybody know who the blonde was to Obama's right?

ALOHA !!

You guys act as if we are still in the 1970s by cheering for VOLCKER! Whats he going to do? All he did was raise rates he did nothing about the US DEBT or the size of government. He hit the consumer in the gut and suckered foreigners to ride the US Peso for another few decades while rigging the gold market. What's new about that?

When he took office in 1979 the US DEBT was around $900bil. By time he left in 1987 the US DEBT was closer to $3trilUSD, US DEBT practically tripled in less eight years(two OBAMA terms). Is that what you want now? So the US government did not stop spending all VOLCKER did is make the US government pay more on US DEBT. WEE-E-E-E !!! What a shock ... he was on the private bankers side all along!!! What do you expect anyone at the US FED to do?

I'm not in much awe of Volcker as you guys are. He has been just as big a manipulator of currency as any other FED goon! He put another band-aid on the eternal FIAT problem of unlimited debt creation. HOORAY!!!

Eliminate the US FED instead of living in some pink cloud of false hope! GET RID OF THE US FED. Why do we need them?

QUESTION AUTHORITY ... DON'T IDOLIZE IT!!!

Be careful for what you wish for ...

westcoaster - Ouch, my fat fingers have done that too!!! To make matters worse, those trades always go through instantly.

Yvrapx
What a find !! I strongly urge the viewing of this clip, my sons watched it with me and cant believe whats in store for the future. The way i see it is that too many young people want to start at the top and not prepared to work for it just cause they are educated, with no jobs more and more will have to assume once unthinkable menial labour jobs just to eat, i see a big attitude adjustment coming. Times are going to revert back to the day when the elderly were kept at home and not sent to nursing homes, the federal pensions will definately be cut and numerous company pensions will go by the wayside as well (GM). For all those that are doubting gold will fly, keep an eye on the big picture and dont let day to day fluctuatoins get to you. Perhaps Americans would be just better off owning the physical, people with that train of thought are thought to be eccentric ( Kaimu running around naked through the jungle :)) but their day will come, im just hoping that the Canadian currency will hold up better but no ready to chance it, gonna get my share of the physical.

kaimu
Am not sure Volcker was much of private banker goon because essentially all he did was raise rates to get the inflation monkey off of everyone's back. Call me crazy but Jimmy Carter price controls and wearing sweaters to ward off the cold were non-starters, slaying inflation was a laudible goal. Besides banking is all about spread borrow for less than you lend and keep your nose clean, pretty basic. By slamming the monetary situation of the day he didn't nationalize anything banking or otherwise and wisely stayed the course when the country wanted his head. Had inflation been allowed to roll unabated you think Government would have been keen to continue paying high teen interest rates????? I think not. Respectfully Volcker showed true leadership by fixing what others would or could not. Gold is a whole different sphere. I suppose letting rates go to the moon would have primed bullion over $2k an oz but hardly think it would have benefited anyone longer term.

tgifbipo
Very welcome it in awesome piece if work and in it's condensed form good for even the toughest ADHD case to understand. The situation will be fixed but the adjustment/dislocation is the wild card. Demographics favor young countries (primarily Asia) and resource economies (Canada, Australia etc) as a Canadian my only hope is that Government begin tightening it's bloated beauraucratic belt sooner than later.

Grym, Check out this article and burn it into your brain (just in case you haven't already). I plan to read, follow, and obey these words of wisdom to the best of my ability.

http://tinyurl.com/5n9xyt

ALOHA !!

Forget the FUTURE ... Take a brief look at the past and what the US government was capable of back in 1932, during the last BIG time of crisis in America. If this is not a total depiction of a BANANA REPUBLIC I don't what is? Do people now think times are that different when things get desperate?

There are some familiar American War Heroes involved here, that have really never been portrayed in such a light in the usual public school statist system that now dominates modern education. Perhaps we should recognize their faults as part of their character, just as we laud their virtues and bravery and quit putting BIG GOVERNMENT and its perverse powers on an incessant pedestal.

When BIG GOVERNMENT gets BIG there is nothing to prevent BIG GOVERNMENT from committing BIG atrocities. Who would have ever thought it would be against US War Veterans of WW1?

When we trust BIG GOVERNMENT and then that trust is broken we as citizens and our freedoms are challenged directly. If we back down then government will take that acquiescence and run with it as far as possible. This is where we are today ... Way too much trust has been allotted for way too little fiscal responsibility in return.

If you thought Kent State was bad, then this is worse in my view. You be the judge ...

QUESTION AUTHORITY ...

MILITARY BONUSES
The practice of war-time military bonuses (adjusted for rank) began in 1776, as payment for the difference between what a soldier earned and what he could have earned had he not enlisted. Before World War One, the soldier's military service bonus was land and money — a Continental Army private received 100 acres and $80.00 at war's end. In 1855, Congress increased the land-grant minimum to 160 acres, and reduced the eligibility requirements to fourteen days of military service, or one battle; moreover, the bonus also applied to veterans of any Indian war. Breaking with tradition, the veterans of the Spanish-American War received no bonus, and, after World War One, their not receiving a military service bonus became a political matter when WWI veterans received only a $60 bonus. In 1919, the American Legion was created, and led a political movement for an additional bonus.

In 1924, over-riding President Calvin Coolidge's veto, Congress legislated compensation for veterans to recognise their war-time suffering: receive a dollar for each day of domestic service, to a maximum of $500; and $1.25 for each day of overseas service, to a maximum of $625. Amounts owed of $50 or less were immediately paid; greater sums were issued as certificates of service maturing in 20 years.

Some 3,662,374 military service certificates were issued, with a face value of $3.638 billion dollars. Congress established a trust fund to receive 20 annual payments of $112 million that, with interest, would finance the $3.638 billion dollars owed to the veterans in 1945. Meanwhile, veterans could borrow up to 22.50 per cent of the certificate's face value from the fund, but, in 1931, because of the Great Economic Depression, Congress increased the loan value to 50 per cent of the certificate's face value, yet, by April of 1932, loans amounting to $1.248 billion dollars had been paid, leaving a $2.36-billion-dollar deficit. Although there was Congressional support for the immediate redemption (payment) of the military service certificates, President Hoover and Republican congressmen opposed that, because it would negatively affect the Federal Government's budget and Depression-relief programmes. Meanwhile, veterans organisations pressed the Federal Government to allow the early redemption of their military service certificates.

THE BONUS ARMY OF 1932
The Bonus Army massed at the United States Capitol on June 17 as the U.S. Senate voted on the Patman Bonus Bill, which would have moved forward the date when World War I veterans received a cash bonus. Most of the Bonus Army camped in a Hooverville on the Anacostia Flats, then a swampy, muddy area across the Anacostia River from the federal core of Washington. The camps, built from materials scavenged from a nearby rubbish dump, were tightly controlled by the veterans with streets laid out, sanitation facilities built and parades held daily. To live in the camps, veterans were required to register and prove they had been honorably discharged. The protesters had hoped that they could convince Congress to make payments that would be granted to veterans immediately, which would have provided relief for the marchers who were unemployed due to the Depression. The bill had passed the House of Representatives on June 15 but was blocked in the Senate.

On the 28th of July 1932, Attorney General Mitchell ordered the police evacuation of the Bonus Army veterans, who resisted; the police shot at them, and killed two. When told of the killings, President Hoover ordered the U.S. Army to effect the evacuation of the Bonus Army from Washington, D.C.

At 4:45 p.m., commanded by Gen. Douglas MacArthur, the 12th Infantry Regiment, Fort Howard, Maryland, and the 3rd Cavalry Regiment, supported with six battle tanks commanded by Maj. George S. Patton, Fort Myer, Virginia, formed in Pennsylvania Avenue while thousands of Civil Service employees left work to line the street and watch the U.S. Army attack its own veterans. The Bonus Marchers, believing the display was in their honour, cheered the troops until Maj. Patton charged the cavalry against them — to which action the Civil Service employee spectators yelled: "Shame! Shame!" against the charging cavalry.

After the cavalry charge, infantry, with fixed bayonets and adamsite gas, entered the Bonus Army camps, evicting veterans, families, and camp followers. The veterans fled across the Anacostia River, to their largest camp; President Hoover ordered the Army assault stopped, however, Gen. MacArthur—feeling this free-speech exercise was a Communist attempt at overthrowing the U.S. Government—ignored the President and re-attacked. Hundreds of veterans were injured, several were killed — including William Hushka and Eric Carlson; a veteran's wife miscarried; and many other veterans were hurt. The sight of armed U.S. Army soldiers attacking poor American veterans of the recent Great War later prompted formal veteran relief funds, and, eventually, establishment of the Veterans Administration. As member of Gen. MacArthur's staff, Maj. Dwight D. Eisenhower had strong reservations about routing the anti-Bonus Army.

The Posse Comitatus Act — forbidding civilian police work by the U.S. military — did not apply to Washington, D.C., because it is the federal district directly governed by the U.S. Congress (U.S. Constitution, Article I. Section 8. Clause 17). The exemption was created because of an earlier "Bonus March". In 1781, most of the Continental Army was demobilised without pay, two years later, in 1783, hundreds of Pennsylvania war veterans marched on Philadelphia, surrounded the State House wherein Congress was in session, and demanded their pay. The U.S. Congress fled to Princeton, New Jersey, and, several weeks later, the U.S. Army expelled the war veterans back to home, out of the national capital.

The only deaths that did occur were two veterans shot by the police before the army intervened. An infant, Bernard Myers, later died in the hospital after the incident but reports indicated the death was not caused by the evacuation of the BEF.(END)

So there you have it. Gen MacArthur disobeyed a Presidential order and decided on his own to kill WW1 Veterans, believing they were Communists. Could the same happen with labels of TERRORISTS? Whats the difference?

My point is in desperate times BIG GOVERNMENT will do desperate things. Our Founding Fathers recognized that fact. We trust government way too much ...

From Bloomberg today: "The TED spread, a gauge of bank cash availability, dropped under 200 basis points for the first time since the day before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed."

The TED spread was 223 points at the beginning of the week. Don Coxe said that once the TED spread falls below 150 basis points, the financial crisis will be over to a large extent. Once that happens, people will stop hoarding $USD and commodity prices might have a strong short-term bounce. As Bill mentioned yesterday, the prices of all commodities except gold seem to be rising already.

Nemo,

I believe you were looking at Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, present as part of the auto delegation seeking handouts.

yvrapx

How did you know about my condition :)

Does anyone have a link to the latest web cast by Don Coxe? His last webcast was very informative. Thanks...

David
http://tinyurl.com/yf9un2

tgifbipo
LOL!
Wasn't referring to you in particular just pointing out it is short and sweet.

David - Azimut, AZM

The way I see it, a junior is a startup company. It's risky, and therefore has to produce major rewards to be worth risking my money. A successful junior finds a major deposit, and either sells it, JV's it, or becomes a producer.

In any of these cases, you'd expect the market cap of a successful junior to soar. They "graduate" from junior status when market cap goes north of $1B. AZM is now worth $7M. At their price peak, they were worth maybe 20 times as much or $140M.

This is after defining 24 properties, JVing a few and 18 years of existence. Why hasn't at least one of those properties become a mine? with lots of uranium or gold in the ground?

After how many DECADES do you conclude that it's just a few guys looking to keep their jobs instead of a startup company that's really going to produce the type of return that justifies the risk of tying your money up in a startup?

I too thought the concept was great. Guy who ran and/or created the Quebec mineral database stepping outside and developing the best possible software for prospecting from that database. But, not much has been achieved in 18 years!

If you want a vehicle that gives you a multiple on a uranium price increase, don't you want to buy a company that has huge amounts of uranium that's really there in the ground and under their control. Wouldn't that be Cameco?

Kaimu,
Thank you for the comments on Military Bonuses. Once unemployment in this Country gains traction
watch out!

David

Google Don Coxe and read his last two reports, i believe he is saying that it will be much more than just a strong bump in the pm s, the idea is that first they are fighting deflation, and thats why we are expieriencing the frustration with the pm s right now but then the headwind changes to a tail wind and in comes the inflation with higher pm s

Thanks for the Don Coxe link, yvrapx!

Jock
Posted by: Jock at November 8, 2008 12:44 AM
I wanted to learn about Junior minor and have learned a lot from this post.
Thanks for education me. Your posts about miner are always very educational

Kaimu, you forgot to mention about Gulf War I "syndrome", the recent casualties who were languishing around Walter Reed until the press got hold of their story and exposed the poor conditions...or take a surf around and see how many Vietnam Vets are in prison today...

Washington also knows that a recession is a good time to get bodies in uniform on the cheap.

The military is a tool of foreign policy that gets discarded when it has served its purpose. I would not go so far as to suggest that it is being considered as a form of internal gestapo. (though given the "quality" of some government knucklehead-thinker-planners, the idea being kicked around some offices wouldn't surprise me).

We get too soon old and too late smart.

ALOHA !!

Here is the new HOMELAND(a term I can't stand due to its Nazi resemblance to FATHERLAND)combat battalion being assigned post Iraq War duties within US borders under the guise of ...

"They may be called upon to help with civil unrest and crowd control or to deal with potentially horrific scenarios such as massive poisoning and chaos in response to a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or high-yield explosive, or CBRNE, attack.END"

The 3rd Infantry, 1st Brigade is now on tour of duty within the USA based in Georgia. They will be part of the "on call federal response force", as reported at the ARMY TIMES website..

Link: http://tinyurl.com/3sendx

Here is what the commander had to say about his new assignment: "“I don’t know what America’s overall plan is — I just know that 24 hours a day, seven days a week, there are soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines that are standing by to come and help if they’re called,” Cloutier said. “It makes me feel good as an American to know that my country has dedicated a force to come in and help the people at home.END”

Hummmm???

Okay, I thought the NATIONAL GUARD, the AIR NATIONAL GUARD and the US COAST GUARD were for the defense of the USA. Now we have combat hardened troops to be used, fresh from IRAQ. It makes me wonder what Washington DC is planning? Will America be invaded by Al-Qaida paratroopers or Al-Qaida amphibious assault groups landing at Huntington Beach and Daytona? Will Mexico or Canada invade America?

Right away now the Posse Comitatus Act — forbidding civilian police work by the U.S. military, is thrown right out the window! Of course the US CONgress can change or circumvent any law under the US Constitution or otherwise without any real public debate or notice and that makes me nervous. The US CONgress circumvented the DRAFT by using mercenary armies like BLACKWATER and the NATIONAL GUARD(instituting stop-loss). There seems to be no end to the "technicalities" CONgress employs to get around any Constitutional limits. I mean look where we are now! How did Goldman Sachs take control of the US Treasury?

Then there is the unlimited amount of "defense" related new government agencies springing up all over the country. This also makes me nervous because we already had agencies that could have performed the same services, so why do we need more? This BIG GOVERNMENT apparatus is just getting way too BIG and too complex and self-serving under the guise of TERRORISM. Below are two fairly new agencies that are defense related and I am afraid these forces could easily be turned against us like what WW1 Veterans experienced in the 1932 Bonus Army atrocity.

Look where the US COAST GUARD is now? They are patrolling the Straits of Hormuz. Imagine some Iranian fisherman's shock to see a US COAST GUARD boat following him? Then it is well documented where the NATIONAL GUARD is ... A lot of baby-boomers will remember the CIVIL DEFENSE DEPT and the duck and cover drills and nuclear bomb shelters during the 1960s. The CIVIL DEFENSE DEPT is still around, but somehow the BIG GOVERNMENT needs more and more agencies and departments that really just copy what was there before. I have long railed that the US FED can be abolished since the US TREASURY could perform the same task.

I present two more US government agencies newly formed within the past ten years that are DOD(Dept Of Defense)related that have a HOMELAND security slant. The entirely new DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY is yet another example.

Here are two ...

- DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY: Our mission is to safeguard America and its allies from weapons of mass destruction (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high yield explosives) by providing capabilities to reduce, eliminate and counter the threat, and mitigate its effects.
Link: http://www.dtra.mil/

- DEFENSE LOGISTICS AGENCY: Extending the Enterprise forward to the point of the spear. Delivering on DLA's vision requires far more than our successfully managing DoD's wholesale supplies and suppliers. To provide the superb support that our troops expect and deserve in the future, we must begin by leveraging the capabilities contained in our many transformational initiatives such as BRAC 2005 and the just-completed BSM program. We must also embrace and commit our resources and energy to three new strategic thrusts, each designed to move the agency beyond its traditional wholesaler roles and responsibilities.
Link: http://www.dla.mil/directors_corner.aspx

Someone please explain why we need the two above mentioned agencies related to Defense? Also I always believed that the more agencies in the mix the more complex the mission becomes. We saw the result of these agencies in KATRINA when OPRAH showed up in NOLA and Mississippi before FEMA or the US Military! Put OPRAH in charge of the NATIONAL GUARD and FEMA!

This is BIG GOVERNMENT run amok ... period! It all smacks of self-serving end games of a dubious nature at best. It all serves as "cover" for BIG GOVERNMENT agendas that could easily be turned against US citizens as it was in 1932.

I am astounded at the undeserved trust the American people and US Voters have put in the hands of BIG GOVERNMENT. We are now seeing on National TV, in broad daylight, the multi-trillion dollar theft of US TAXPAYER funds. Yet we continually re-elect the same "usual suspects" and we trust the exact same criminals who got us into this mess to get us out! That folks, is the definition of INSANITY ... to keep repeating the exact some mistakes and then expect a different result. All that is accomplished is that the disease is passed onto future generations to resolve and it will go until the entire system can no longer survive. It seems to me US Voters have just elected more BIG GOVERNMENT and the only possible recourse is collapse and default.

IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T ...

QUESTION AUTHORITY 25/8/366!!

ALOHA !!

Yes, I also forgot the whole AGENT ORANGE stuff from the Vietnam War also! Try coming to Hawaii and seeing how many Vietnam Vets are in the jungles here or floundering along the roadside! In my remote area there is a Vietnam Vet living right behind my property who is usually in a state of euphoria and then I used to pick up a Vietnam Vet neighbor who would spend his entire day hitchhiking up and down highway 130 here. He died two years ago at age 59. You should have seen where he lived! There are many sad stories regarding Veterans of every War.

Yet, the US government has even less qualms of starting a World War than ever! When you allow two draft-dodgers to start a War you get what we have now in IRAQ. Now the next military challenge will be IRAN and PAKISTAN. My money is on PAKISTAN since I believe the US government will give Israel the go-ahead bombing of Iran. This time there will be no more long term occupations into new countries. Besides we don't have any allies left ... Our reputation is shot after IRAQ. What country will be so stupid as to follow us into a long occupation of either Iran or Pakistan?

It will all come down to our fiscal abilities and that is getting quite slim at the moment, not to mention our banking reputation is shot as well as our military reputation is! IN FRAUD WE TRUST!

The COLD WAR2 though ... that's another story yet to be played out. It is obvious to me our relations with China and Russia have substantially shifted in many ways, many not even military related, but financial. I would not discount Al-Qaida as they have always had a financial agenda with the USA, disguised as "terrorism"!

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

Craig,

Life is puzzling.

In the first place HAVING unwanted pregnancies is the puzzling. It is easier than ever not to get pregnant. If she can't say no, she takes a pill.

The second part — since it has become acceptable, even common, to be an unwed mother — the guy has often become excused from any responsibility. It is just passed off to society to care for mothers and children.

Why is it OK to kill the kid before it is born, but criminal to kill it a hour after birth?

If we were practical about this, we would extend the abortion date to, say age 21. Then decide if he is worth keeping. Is he brilliant and able to contribute great things to society? Would he make a good bit of canon fodder? Is he a danger?

If nothing else, "Clean up your room, or else," would have some clout.

How is it so many of the same people who see the life of an innocent child as merely "a woman's choice" can be totally opposed to executing people guilty of committing terrible crimes?

ALOHA !!

Look at the lengths even City governments are going to get more tax revenues! Looks like desperation is setting in at all government levels! FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS!

READ ON:

BLOOMBERG TAXES PLASTIC BAGS
Reuters

Date: Nov 8, 2008

Mayor Bloomberg wants to nickel and dime you at the grocery store - taxing you an extra 5 cents for every plastic bag you take home.

The controversial charge could raise at least $16 million for the cash-strapped city while keeping tons of plastic out of landfills, city officials said Thursday - but some outraged shoppers aren't buying it. (more)

I bring my own bag to the grocery store when I go ...

Kaimu,

I have read a number of accounts of this tragedy. Like Kent State calling out the military is a risky remedy. Soldiers (or police) are subject to human failures in judgment, especially when fear or other emotions run high. In any confrontational situation, split second decisions have permanent, unalterable consequences.

All my reading on this event come to the same basic conclusion as what you presented here. MacArthur, although at times a brilliant commander, (island hopping in WW2 and Inchon in Korea) was a prima donna who was totally impressed with his own infallibility.

Ike never liked him and the feeling was apparently mutual.

MacArthur, said of Eisenhower when made Supreme Commander of European Forces, "He was the best clerk I ever had."

Ike said, "I studied dramatics under MacArthur for eight years."

I just read that Andrew Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury, opposed paying the bonus due to its effect on the budget. Next war, I propose we send the Wall St. tycoons in the first wave to clear the minefield. They must be good for something.

Dr. Strangelove,

On CNBC's "Fast Money" during presentation/discussion of autos plea for funds —

Why not give the money directly to the employees whose retirement and medical care is in jeopardy?

Why give it to an industry who makes an oversupply of cars people don't want to buy — whose management makes huge bucks?

Kaimu,

When calling in the police or troops, it is far better o use too many than too few. I see a gradual withdrawal from Iraq as truly dangerous.

Picture yourself at a check point with one or two buddies. You know you can't trust the "friendlies." They may turn and run or they may turn and shoot.

A large crowd becomes unruly and is shouting in a language you can't understand. You are armed. things look threatening, Someone throws a rock. You hear shots.

Now picture the same scenario except there is a full battalion with you along with a few tanks. There are 500,000 (the original CENTCOM estimate needed to invade Iraq) "good guys" in the country.

Which one is more likely to lead to loss of life.

Colin Powell remembered the other Gulf War when he told W, "Be sure you have enough troops. If you break it, you've bought it."

"You guys act as if we are still in the 1970s by cheering for VOLCKER! Whats he going to do? All he did was raise rates he did nothing about the US DEBT or the size of government."

kaimu- I worked once for a boss with one of the sharpest minds I know, but he couldn't manage...he was followed by someone with great common sense, who cleaned everything up and left the company in great shape...when you say "all he did was raise rates" you neglect the insight, analysis, and politics behind that move...

2nd:

Occam's Razor strikes again...Volcker, did what he could do within the system. Voila

In cased anybody missed this:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JJ30Dj04.html

"How is it so many of the same people who see the life of an innocent child as merely "a woman's choice" can be totally opposed to executing people guilty of committing terrible crimes?"

Good question Grym, and I can answer.

What is it we are doing with criminals of terrible crimes? What is our purpose?

I propose our purpose is to remove dangerous people from society in order to protect the innocent (society). I think I am correct on this.
If the purpose is to remove violent and dangerous criminals then we have two choices.
Kill them or warehouse them. Either society sanctions the taking of life in the name of the whole (society)to remove them or we simply remove them and keep them away from us.

So now we have two choices and the question becomes, which choice removes them from society and which one uses less of society's precious resources to do so.

Both methods remove violent criminals from society so we have more to look at. Here are some facts:
1. The death penalty doesn't work. This point is undebateable. It has never stopped one violent act and it cannot prevent one violent act because it flies in the face of proven behavioral science. I am a trainer and I can debate this with anyone until the cows come home because THIS is my area of expertise. Clearly, even one violent act in America today by anyone knowing of the death penalty, which is obviously the majority of those with cognitive thought, couldn't happen if the death penalty was a preventative. If it worked we wouldn't have violent crime, period.
The proof is in the actions of people and the violent crime statistics of any town or city.
Over 400 such violent and deadly examples in Chicago in the last year alone.
2. The death penalty costs more to implement than warehousing violent criminals for the rest of their lives. That is also a proven fact as all states have those statistics and costs.
3. Sometimes law enforcement and the courts make mistakes. Many innocent people have been convicted and put to death. I don't know about you, but to me this is intolerable in a Constitutional Democracy that is supposed to cherish individual rights.

So what is it you want to do?
Are you operating on the vengence at all cost model even if we kill innocent people or the remove the danger from society for as little drain of societal resources as possible model?

I suggest:
1. Do the thing that makes us safe. I will submit right now, this means life without any possibility of parole.
2. Do the thing that offers some protection to the accused ala the Constitution so if we make an error it isn't permanent.
3. Do the thing that is consistent with our values of not killing people.
4. Do the thing that is proven to work.
5. Do the thing that is least cost.

The death penalty is a proven failure when we make sound decisions based on facts and not venegence, emotion or politics.

Grym - "It is easier than ever not to get pregnant." In some countries it's against the law, right? I wonder what happens in those cases... we don't often hear about this for some reason.

Costs borne by employers of Citizen Soldiers - A 60 minutes piece on some of the challenges employers face:

http://tinyurl.com/64xqg9

Volcker/Stagflation: Those present will remember that stagflation was a new phenomenon at the time and the politicians, as usual, were trying to avoid natural cycles and admitting to the debt from Vietnam. Inflation was spiralling out of control while the economy was just below where it is now...7-8% unemployment....and it seemed no one knew what to do. Volcker knew but it wasn't very popular. We need to do that again, and then keep going.

Why are mutual funds so prone to over diversify?

I'm considering an account in a Large-Cap Index Fund because I like their top ten holdings. But I look at the overall portfolio and there are a total of 744 different issues in it. It's not feasible (to me, anyway) that a portfolio manager, even with a staff of 10 or so, could possibly keep an eye on all of that. What do they do - just buy everything?

Look at the lengths even City governments are going to get more tax revenues! Looks like desperation is setting in at all government levels! FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS!

I have mine on, but not my shoulder harness, yet.

Colin Twiggs:

http://tinyurl.com/54qccl

I will pose another theoretical discussion.

How can one Constitutional Amendment or the Bill of Rights take precedence or be more important than another?

How can gun rights advocates tout the 2nd Amendment while failing to see a woman's Constitutional right to control her own body?

How can gun toting non-uterus owners dictate to uterus owners and not be hypocrites when they act exactly like city slicker non-gun owning gun opponents? Where is the intellectual consistency and honesty?

If the right to bear arms is to be defended nationally under the protection of the Constitution and the Supreme Court, why do those same advocates propose relegating a woman's right to control her own body from the Constitution, Bill of Rights and Supreme Court down to "state control". Frankly, this is total bullshit. Either we have Constitutionally guaranteed rights or we don't.

I suggest maturity and respect for the Constitution. I have no desire to control anyone's guns or body. THAT is the law. To want to do otherwise is to want to infringe on the rights of others and impose our choices on others. THAT is a radical notion if you count yourself as an American.

In the name of consistency and intellectual honesty I will say I do not think there is a way to reconcile the rights of a zygote/fetus and those of the woman. We can come up with various restrictions like we do gun registration, but in both there is a line we dare not cross.
To me the best choice is to fully educate our children and adolescents and remove the stigma of human sexuality (and gun ownership). The problem is the cultural pressures of those still desireous of controlling everyone else's life choices like access to information and birth control.

We really need a dose of maturity.

Stock Watch: I see a lot of interest in alt energy stocks, especially solar and some wind, but here is an interesting stock that might be worth adding to the categorical list for possibly buying on the next dip ( or higher high, whichever is your preference).

FSYS (Fuel Systems Solutions) makes automotive parts used in converting engines to nat gas, etc.. Cash seems ok, positive earnings, good margins, but high (imo) p/e. Here is a chart (from FINVIZ.com):
http://tinyurl.com/6q66l2

FSYS price is up here because it just reported an earnings "blow-out" for the last quarter, but remember, the last quarter most likely reflected buyer interest due to high gasoline prices (see link below). Gasoline prices have currently come way down now, so FSYS earnings should fall and possibly provide a buy price IF and WHEN gasoline prices go up again (depression cometh?).
http://tinyurl.com/6jclw9

Anyway, jmho, and no position currently.

http://tinyurl.com/6p2vzh

Charts for Saturday Morning Brunch

Craig - I feel your frustration. Personally, I believe much of this lies with corporate control of media and how stories are twisted, delayed, and otherwise go untold. The internet, hopefully, will help us break the chains, run free, and learn the truths. It's important to remember the past, question what we've been programmed to believe, and strive for what we think is right.

kaimu has it right when he points out that we must always question authority. Else, our rights will be violated.

DXO/SSO/QLD - Tuesday's breakout winner was; drum roll please, DXO! GG did very well because it hasn't fallen back like SSO and DXO.

I'm strengthening the case for a huge unexpected rush to commodities on the upswing. Any believers?

Pookster - personally I think its too soon for commodities to push up - recession-like conditions not permitting it, and I am talking oil, base metals aluminum, steel, copper, etc, other energy. (its not a bad time to take an initial, small position in some, though, as undoubtedly there are some bargains out there).

Markets, typically, will lead - in other words, I agree with Bill's consensus that this is the start of a bull market, albeit at very early stages.

It may take a couple of quarters to weed out any uncertainty and see more clearly, however; which is why I'm still a little cautious...and there's a lot of lingering volatility, so be cautious...
fwiw, that's my position...

Craig,

I agree the purpose is to remove them to protect society.

I totally disagree the death penalty doesn't work.

I also flat out disagree it is not debatable, but since your mind is closed I will refrain from cluttering it with any alternative views or evidence.

I did read your comments.

You are missing a large part of life operating with a closed mind. Sad :-(

@Kaimu

Nice post. You're dead on that the flourishing of war/security/intelligence agencies in the government is out of control. Little fiefdoms that are funded by the taxpayer and play off the fears of the people. They aren't going to go away easy though, do you think that part of $1 Trillion defense budget doesn't go into marketing and public-relations that use the best coercion, psychological tactics, and fear-induction techniques? Even a used car lot has the "my (hidden) manager can't go lower as we'be going lower than our costs" psy technique used to negotiate you out of your money.

2nd
did some repositioning
trim holding of few ETF and brought ETF --BGU/TNA which is new and gives triple leverage.

CP,

re: pregnancy

I was thinking in terms of the US since Row v Wade. Other countries cover the whole gamut, I guess.

Seat belts! I installed them in the rear seat of our 1955 Chevy when the kids were little. I always use a seat belt.
But I absolutely hate the law requiring their use and especially the annoying bells, or worse — the refusal to start unless belted.

In my 1974 VW (both driver and passenger had to be fastened or no go.) the mechanic told me he would be fined $10,000 if he pulled the connection under the driver's seat on the right hand side. End of the problem.

I feel the same way about bike helmets, infant car seats, warning labels of all kinds, food banishment, on and on we go...

Anyone choosing not to protect — will simply improve the gene pool.

ALOHA !!

2nd ... "when you say "all he did was raise rates" you neglect the insight, analysis, and politics behind that move... "

I really don't care about that nonsense. That is the "stuff" that has gotten us where we are today.

ALL OUR BEST THINKING GOT US HERE!

I am more concerned about the apparatus, the US FED and its FRN ... FIAT monetary system, that was created for the sole purpose of GROWING government and enriching private bankers in the process. If you like WWF, then call that a DYNAMIC DUO ... TAG TEAM! BAZOOKA PAPPY PAULSON and VAVOOM GRAMPAPPY VOLCKER!! VOLCKER is no different than GREENSPAN from that perspective. All US FED Chairman and governors have the same goal and by the looks of things in Washington DC and around the World they have been incredibly successful at your expense and mine and your children and their children. We have all been forced to exist in an oppressive virtual debt prison, even for those of us who have NO DEBT. For those of us who have NO DEBT must keep paying prices and living under restrictions for those who have made the fatal mistake of accumulating more DEBT than they can pay back. I do not speak of Joe Citizen, but of Uncle Sam. If you live in this World as an American then you will be burdened by that debt like it or not.

What sort of accomplishment must we celebrate that grows the DEBT of government 300% in eight years? That's nobody I would idolize no matter how much "people skills" the guy has! Isn't that all management and politics is when you finally distill it down!? Al Capone had "people skills" and so did Adolf Hitler!

I prefer to reward these US FED Chairmen by closing down their entire system and banishing them to Elba ... By the way Napoleon had "people skills" also!

Come on ... ANALYSIS? You've got to be kidding! All the US FED has ever been able to do is either PRINT MORE or PRINT LESS and part of that "fabulous strategy" is RAISE RATES or LOWER RATES! The idiots only have a 50-50 chance either way and still we lose in the end! Its as if this is IDOCRACY and WE THE PEOPLE are facing off with the US FED in a coin toss and the US FED calls out "HEADS I WIN ... TAILS YOU LOSE!" FLING-G-G ... the coin is tossed ... And we stand around after the toss wondering how it is we ALWAYS lose to those cunning bastards? DAMN, HOW IS IT WE ALWAYS LOSE? HA!! That's IDOCRACY in action ...

GET RID OF THE US FED ... Believe me ... we don't need them to help us go bankrupt, which is essentially all they have done. Look at your FRN in your wallet. WOW ... what a marvel ... a check kiting operation legalized by the 1913 US CONgress! Lets put that on a pedestal!!! YIPEE-E-E!! VOLCKER SUCKS! Give me a Thomas Jefferson or a Ron Paul any day ...

No matter who they put up as US FED Chairman to dazzle you with their brilliance and charisma ... even OPRAH ... their one and ONLY goal has always been to profit off growing government by controlling the issuance of fiat money. FAITH AND CREDIT, BABY! FAITH AND CREDIT ...

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

ALOHA !!

Check this out ... Is this insane or what? We have to sue to find out what the US FESD is buying with our $1.5tril pesos!!

I love this "on behalf of US TAXPAYERS" ... The World is our oyster and all these banks and the US FED are here on OUR BEHALF!!! OH YEAH-H-H!!! My heavens, what would we do without them? Gosh ...

READ ON:
News agency sues Fed for look at collateral for loans to banks

By Mark Pittman
Bloomberg News
Friday, November 7, 2008

NEW YORK -- Bloomberg News asked a U.S. court today to force the Federal Reserve to disclose securities the central bank is accepting on behalf of American taxpayers as collateral for $1.5 trillion of loans to banks.

The lawsuit is based on the U.S. Freedom of Information Act, which requires federal agencies to make government documents available to the press and the public, according to the complaint. The suit, filed in New York, doesn't seek money damages.

"The American taxpayer is entitled to know the risks, costs and methodology associated with the unprecedented government bailout of the U.S. financial industry," said Matthew Winkler, the editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News, a unit of New York-based Bloomberg LP, in an e-mail.

The Fed has lent $1.5 trillion to banks, including Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., through programs such as its discount window, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Term Securities Lending Facility. Collateral is an asset pledged to a lender in the event that a loan payment isn't made.

The Fed made the loans under 11 programs in response to the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. The total doesn't include an additional $700 billion approved by Congress in a bailout package.

... Fed's Position

Bloomberg News on May 21 asked the Fed to provide data on the collateral posted between April 4 and May 20. The central bank said on June 19 that it needed until July 3 to search out the documents and determine whether it would make them public. Bloomberg never received a formal response that would enable it to file an appeal. On Oct. 25, Bloomberg filed another request and has yet to receive a reply.

The Fed staff planned to recommend that Bloomberg's request be denied under an exemption protecting "confidential commercial information," according to Alison Thro, the Fed's FOIA Service Center senior counsel. The Fed in Washington has about 30 pages pertaining to the request, Thro said today before the filing of the suit. The bulk of the documents Bloomberg sought are at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which she said isn't subject to the freedom of information law.

"This type of information is considered highly sensitive, and it would remain so for some time in the future," Thro said.

The Fed didn't give Bloomberg a formal response because "it got caught in the vortex of the things going on here," said Michael O'Rourke, another member of the Fed's FOIA staff.

Thro declined to comment on the lawsuit. END

If you think you have proof, then provide it. Don't use me as an excuse. :>)
I said I can debate it and I can. I'll be happy to poke holes in whatever evidence you think you have.

vinod- unless you're trading, here's a reminder of the basic case for holding at this point:

"The high price of panic-
Dumping stocks now locks in losses and risks missing the market's best days"

http://tinyurl.com/6y9nq2

kaimu- Twiggs agrees with your POV on how we got here...fwiw, he also thinks Volcker is our best chance of 'fixing' things for now...(reference my 1044am link)...

I read yesterday where someone said that the holdings of hedge funds that were using LEH as their broker were being dumped to repay the creditors (including the hedge funds), and this was a lot of the reason for the crushing of stocks and commodities since LEH went under.

Can someone confirm that this would or wouldn't be the case? If it is, how will we know when they are done dumping assets?

Anyone can get this info:
From the U.S. Dept of Justice:

Violent felonies have risen from 200,000 in 1980 to over 600,000 in 2004.
Over 1/2 of all prisoners are violent felons.

The total of all prisoners (and hence the total of violent felons) has risen from 1,000,000 in 1980 to over 4,000,000 in 2006.

Violent criminals continue to murder innocent people and society continues to prosecute and sentence them to death while the statistics continue to indicate this approach is a total failure.

When something is "proven" to work, you don't see the statistics and charts (yeah, the DOJ has charts!) indicating the opposite. We all know what charts do here! One thing they don't do (especially over several years) is lie. charts show facts and trends.

Keep in mind, most government stats are designed to show unfounded success, just like the fiscal stats. So these stats would tend to be *favorable* to the state.
If the death penalty worked the stats and charts would show a falling violent felony/murder rate and we would see a precipitous drop in death sentences and executions. Sadly we don't.

The facts don't seem to indicate this is the case. 'Proven' means you have hard evidence to support your thesis and it's repeatable and verifiable.

Rick Ackerman lets one of his forum members write up his outlook on bullion and Canadian attitudes to markets in general. Its interesting, though I think the downside target may be too aggressive since we are heading into another low yield environment on the short end of the curve. Really enjoyed these comments, but I realize how cynicalized I have become:

"MAIN STREET: Based on my general observation of the people around Calgary, they are still playing for a bounce and averaging down like crazy. We think they are going to get their wiped out, maybe by Christmas, along with a major hiccup for the resource-heavy brokers and boutiques -- GMP, Canaccord and ARC to name just a few. The Canadian Banks so far have not broken but I am building short positions in the insurance and minor banks. The charts look sick. The locals still 'believe' banks to be an absolute core holding to any portfolio and the brainwashing of the last 20 years is so deep in Canadian mindset that the move down could be incredible. CIBC will likely be the first."

http://rickackerman.com/commentary/2008/Bullion_Pro_Sees_Trouble_on_Charts.html

Probably see a breaking of the routine of long oil, short dollar switching positions in the dollar and gold:

http://tinyurl.com/59p9b8

Canaccord has since laid off in the resource trading.

F6

http://tinyurl.com/5sdwky

G-20 Discusses More Interest-Rate Cuts, Flaherty Says (Update3)

"In the name of consistency and intellectual honesty I will say I do not think there is a way to reconcile the rights of a zygote/fetus and those of the woman. We can come up with various restrictions like we do gun registration, but in both there is a line we dare not cross."

How about giving the benefit of your doubt to the one with the most to lose....the child? Mamma and (Daddy) will live to another day.

Do you have any problem with allowing states to determine the legality of abortion in their own jurisdictions?

Excellent discussion on Howe Street.com just prior to U.S. election on the outlook of the market in deflation, and how the election might eventually be seen as positive in the outcome:

http://www.howestreet.com/index.php?pl=/goldradio/index.php/mediaplayer/1014

Howe street is very staunchly republican-supportive conservative in their politics and behind the times. The West in Canada is very backwards-looking and thinking.

“The death penalty doesn't work. This point is undebateable. It has never stopped one violent act and it cannot prevent one violent act.”

The death penalty is intended to serve as a deterrent to murder and not violent crime in general. Setting the moral issue aside, the argument for/against should be framed around the number of murders committed during a time period when the death penalty was/was not in place and/or enforced.

In 2004, 16,127 nationwide murders were documented by the FBI, down 2.4% from 2003. The remaining 583,873 violent actions from 2004 did not end in murder. Is there not the possibility that fear of being put to death by the State entered into the decision?

Craig,

Now you say,
"If you think you have proof, then provide it. Don't use me as an excuse. :>)
I said I can debate it and I can. I'll be happy to poke holes in whatever evidence you think you have.

from your post 9:47 AM
"1. The death penalty doesn't work. This point is undebateable."

Seemed pretty clear to me.
--------
OK, I agreed the purpose is to protect society by removing the homicidal (or any other capital offense) individual.

As a fact:
Obviously, a dead person will not kill again. Anything less than death allows him the possibility either within the confines; other prisoners or worse, security and other personnel. He has nothing to lose.

I can think of two specific cases in our city which keep coming back to haunt the relatives of the victims as they must continue to protest the release of the criminal. Both cases were brutal attacks. One a torture and killing of a newspaper delivery boy over a period of several days. The other, a sexual attack with a screwdriver on the wife of my long time friend. She nearly bled to death, but survived. They were unable to ever have children. If the man is released my friend will kill him, I have no doubt.

If I'm on the jury I would call it justifiable.

You shifted almost immediately to the deterrent factor.

I submit that if I hold a gun to someone's head and say, "Drop the gun (or knife) or I'll shoot, in nearly all cases the perp is going to obey. If not, cost is no longer a factor.

Due to the decades long appeals process in the US, the immediacy of the threat of death seems remote. If, however, there is a history of carrying out a death sentence — the effect is reliable.

Consider what happens to anyone who crosses the mob. A bag lady is pretty secure if everyone is aware of what happens to those who would try to rob her.

Your argument only holds true when the sentence has a long fuse.

It doesn't need to be a horrible lingering death by hanging or a terrible frying in an electric chair. We had our 21 year old cat who had cancer euthanized in July. The doctor gave her a shot and she went to sleep immediately, followed by a second shot which stopped her heart. The only pain was our emotional pain, but she did not suffer at all. I would happily chose the same method.

Craig,

No charts or stats needed — just good sense and a reasoned approach.

FranSix

Being from Southern Ontario and never having ventured west i was wondering if you could expand on your statement on the west being backwards looking and thinking,just curious. I have ventured to the east coast and found them culturaly different, and i guess i could also add the word backward if i chose to, but i just adjusted to their way of life while i was there and really enjoyed their company, very friendly and warm people.

re the death penalty-

I would say it's difficult to debate in the abstract...I don't have any personal experience with violent crime, but I can easily see my opinion on capital punishment swayed in a particular case depending on whether I know the victim or whether I know the perpetrator...

for example, if a family I know were the victims, and they were afraid of retribution as long as the person(s) responsible remained alive, I'm not going to be the one to dissuade them it's not going to happen as long as the guy(s) are behind bars...I would acknowledge that it's entirely possible that (a) a contract would be put out on the family, (b) one or more escape from prison, or (c) one or more use the media to cause further pain to the family...these may be unlikely occurrences, but they have happened, and I would want complete "closure" for the victims...

what if I know the perpetrator, and I'm convinced he was mentally ill at the time?

in general, it's a person's conscience that deters him from violent crime...once he's crossed that line, I don't know that the death penalty acts as an additional deterrent; it may help to prevent him from crossing that line in the first place...some would argue a person who faces certain death if caught would in fact go out in a blaze of glory when faced with that prospect...

I would not exclude capital punishment, nor would I make it mandatory- I think we need to allow a jury to use its common sense in deciding whether someone deserves to die for a crime...as long as the jury excludes those with a personal connection to the crime, I think they would have no problem coming up with the right decision...

Si02

Re: past agriculture discourse here & on skype.

Picked up a copy of Wired, Nov edition. Interesting, informative piece, mostly graphics on the future of food, involvement of science in solving next global crisis.

Found internet location, however you may ned to use zoom feature. Large monitor would also help.

http://tinyurl.com/65dkt4

Not mentioned, but brings to mind MON, SYT, PDA, SDA, CRESY, POT, TRA, and all the rest of the group.

make that "as long as the jury does not include anyone with a personal connection to the crime.."

prior post "ned" typo should be "need"

BTW, weekending in Western MI. Filled the tank over here as gas at a couple of locations is $1.99! Can't recall when that was last seen. Chicago is still @ $2.64 to over $3 a gallon.

2nd

I don't know if it's a global saying but certainly in the UK 'they' say "If you're going to panic, panic early!"

seadog- LOL, that's right...i want to be out of the theatre before I yell "Fire!"...

Three choices for Pres Elect Obama:

1) Get rid of the Federal Reserve!
2) Get rid of the Federal Reserve!!
3) Get rid of the Federal Reserve!!!!

Talk about a mutt, this puppy will continue pooping on our carpet otherwise.

BARRON’S week of November 10th edition

Interview with Don Coxe: Couple of excerpts:

“Stocks are cheap but they can get cheaper; we know that. We got back to the Dow having a multiple of 5.9 in December of '74, which was the foundation of Warren Buffett's wealth because he started buying at that level. The Dow isn't anywhere near 5.9 [its multiple last week was 11], but some of my favorite stocks are trading at lower P/Es than that. I can tell you they are the fertilizer, oil and agricultural companies.”

“When I came back from a trip two years ago, I said the biggest commodity story is going to be food, bigger than the other ones. It is high-protein food. The way to play that is through the fertilizer stocks, the genetically modified seed stocks and the farm-equipment stocks.”

Likes in order (1) agriculture, (2) gold, (3) energy

[Bill Cara note:

Other analysts have also compared this market to 1974 PEs. It is a different situation entirely. The stagflation in the 1970's was much higher, with bank rates often in the mid-teens, and it sucked the PEs right out of the market. I have no clue why analysts don't look at the data. Fat and lazy, I guess.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

But, I do like Don's picks. ]

Gun sales are up 70%.

CP,

Gun sales: At my local shop today I noticed the cases were nearly empty. There is a gun show at another location tomorrow and I asked why they had started packing so early.

They had nearly sold out! (Well, I would say about a third of the handgun inventory since last week,) Their suppliers are unable to fill any orders for several weeks.

Yup, the Obama factor. Big run on semiautos, both handguns and rifles and those the media likes to class as "assault weapons"

While I realize the anti-gunners gained a number of seats, and I don't want anymore feel-good nuisance laws, I have a collection of gun books and magazines dating back to the 1920s and this has been a "hot issue" for all those years.

IMO both sides, NRA and the Brady Bunch, are making a good living by fanning the flames on a continuing basis.

I doubt if the drug gangs in my area have been concerned about Obama, or possibly won't notice a change at the White House regarding their enterprise.

gun sales are up...wow, this country is ridiculous at times...

Crackin up here Grym...hehe

kaimu - When we are asked to pay our sales, income or property taxes, we cannot respond by simply saying "Request Denied"!

Grym - What's next, a ban on alternative currencies? Talk about putting guns on the street, just whisper a rumor and demand flies! Never figured out what to do with my suitcase full of 20yr-old ammo, ain't easy shooting ground snakes with a 30-30, but it might come in handy for the walking kind. If it still works, that is.

"It doesn't need to be a horrible lingering death by hanging or a terrible frying in an electric chair. We had our 21 year old cat who had cancer euthanized in July. The doctor gave her a shot and she went to sleep immediately, followed by a second shot which stopped her heart. The only pain was our emotional pain, but she did not suffer at all. I would happily chose the same method."

Horrible death...you've got to be kidding. My mother, a wonderful woman, died a slow, horrible death in terrible pain from cancer. So, some hardened criminal has to spend 5 minutes suffering. What kind of BS is this. When a society is relatively wealthy it can worry about such philosophical BS. Think about how many good decent people die a lingering death of pain on a yearly basis (which should give one pause about the thought of a benevolent God). If you have a person who is without a doubt guilty of a capital crime how the hell can you compare his few minutes of suffering to that which most people go through on their transition to death. This is total philosophical BS masturbation.

After reading few articles about market this weekend I got feeling that these experts of market hope of bringing small-time investors back into the market so they can be robbed by the deleveraging of hedge funds owned by the wealthy

2nd_ave,

I would not make any sentence mandatory. Doing so negates or limits the job of judges too much. We need to make sure we elect or appoint qualified judges and monitor their performance once seated.

The abstract is not the best way to approach the issue (to many what ifs). The first thing the opposing side takes is the less likely, most remote exception. Prior decisions are often introduced and applied in legal arguments to give specificity to the case.

I would not want to see anyone denied due process, but to often the court overload prolongs the final outcome to the extreme. So much of our legal system is choking on drug cases and our prisons are clogged with the same. IMO, the War on Drugs is an obvious exercise in futility and we should simply stop it.

Banning anything, or even the fear it may be banned, simply makes the prices rise. Legalize drugs. Offer help to any who wish to quit. The others should be left free to dispose of their own lives as they wish.

We would save $ billions — the sale, the enforcement, the crimes to fund habits — what a waste of time, money and effort. Fewer lives would be destroyed by the legal process and we could deal with the genuine crimes in the courts in a timely manor.

Instead of making it sound hopeless for anyone who ever experimented with something — encourage them to stop. If I could quit tobacco, which I used in all forms, for over 30 years, they can quit too. After over 20 years without I still get a craving now and then, but I will never start again — I feel so much better physically and mentally. It can be done. (I do tend to ramble though... :-)

Bill,

Regarding your comments on the differences between now and 1974, it seems to me we will need to monitor the numbers over time on this, as you point out in your book.

Some are saying things are not as bad as during the 1929 crash and how much lower our unemployment is now. But you have listed a number of strong rallies within the Great Depression and surely the 25% unemployment took years to fully develop.

While we can see some similarities to other time periods, there are also a lot of conditions unique to each.

In the 1970s my business improved, due to my lower overhead, I was able to pick up new accounts.

There is no such opportunity now. Today we have virtually no manufacturing (my clients) left in the middle of the United States. The auto industry is moribund as are all the supply related industries. We have a negative individual savings rate. Municipalities are as broke as the national system. Foreign competition is growing. Management has absolutely no loyalty nor money a national home. The rate of change is increasing.

I believe it is too soon to draw any long term conclusions.

(Perhaps you didn't mean it that way and it is just my tendency to always look at a longer view.)

CP,

The next ban is what is worrying the market traders on Fast Money. As they all agreed last week — this is the end of anyone believing buy and hold. Jeff Macke says to either stay on the sidelines or be ready to buy what looks good v. short term and take profits early. This has worked for me lately and I've always been far less active at trading.

I guess I'm one "old dog" who you only need to club over the head once. I have a couple of friends, however, who are still hanging on and say they're trying not to look at their portfolios. One is over 90, but the others may have a tough time ahead.
-----------------

You ammo is probably as good as new (assuming stored in a reasonably dry state). I have fired WW2 9mm and .30 cal. ammo often. Just bought some 1947 Turkish yesterday. The only problem with some of the old stuff is it may have corrosive primers and need a more thorough cleaning immediately. This is especially true with some foreign stuff.

If any serious question check with a reliable gun dealer, or if none available secure the weapon with a vise or some such and fire by pulling a string tied to the trigger. Then inspect the fired case for any signs of cracks or bulging.

The go get those snakes! (Do you use shot shells?)

Vinod,

I think you are right about trying to set up the small investors.

Maria asked a stock pusher last week ( I was a bit slow hitting the mute.) "What kind of catalyst will it take to bring the individual investor back into the market?"

I immediately shouted — "Try restoring trust!" (My wife, once again reminded me TV only works one way.)

Gentlemen: My arguments are made in light of the fact we live in a Constitutional Democracy that guarantees all citizens certain rights.

That would include the full measure of the legal process, and protection from it's errors as well.

Death precludes those protections on a permanent basis. Yes, I know the victims have no such protections, but this doesn't mean it is logical or correct to assume guilt and dispose of the accused's rights. Two wrongs don't make a right.

That is the framework we must live and act within. All of the arguments citing familiarity, knowing people, etc point out the obvious defects in the legal system and why permanent "solutions" are problematic in a Constitutional Democracy.
We aren't perfect. Just look at the racial issues ssurrounding our Presidential election.
How do we eliminate those types of problems in a courtroom?
There are lots of governments that use the standards some of you espouse.....Russia, Saddam Hussein's Iraq, many middle eastern countries have your standards.

We don't operate like that in the U.S.

A good example is the number of blacks arrested and wrongly convicted. We have so many excellent examples of those without resources being victimized by the LIMITLESS resources if the state. *Read that again* The resources to be used against accused citizens is LIMITLESS.
THAT is why we have the legal right to appeal....to have the chance to defend against limitless resources, right or wrong.

We also have more than enough examples of those WITH resources that are guilty as sin getting off (not this time OJ). How many wealthy white collar criminals will we see go to jail over this fiscal crisis in comparison to the conviction stats of poor blacks or hispanics who are disproportionately imprisoned and executed?
As I said, LIFE without possibility of parole protects all parties within the context of the only thing that provides ALL of us such protections from an overreaching government, The U.S. Constitution.

When you use emotion or suggest the costs are due to legal appeals, you are suggesting bypassing the Constitution and you are accepting total dominance by the state, with your own resources. Would you make that same choice in favor of the government with YOUR life or MONEY?

The argument MUST be contained within the bounds of the Constitution or we are all lost.
We all love to make assumptions about guilt and innocence and we think our legal system is the best and doesn't make mistakes, but it does.
If it makes that mistake with you, you will certainly want all the opportunities possible to have the chance to prove your innocence before you are murdered by your own government, with your own money.

Just look at that student in Italy and what she is up against. I don't know if she is guilty or innocent, but they aren't giving her much of a chance to defend herself under Italian law. Certainly not in comparison to here.
They don't have the protections we do and you can see by example what happens when citizens don't have the Constitutional protections our forefathers died for. They have held her uncharged for over a year? Are you kidding?

No one has yet provided *proof* the death penalty works, at least within the context of our Constitution and legal system.

That is not to say deadly threats from the state don't work. Saddam kept everyone under control with the threat of deadly force, murder, violence and torture. Did it stop murder or violence in Iraq? No. Even with someone as overbearing and deadly as Saddam, it didn't stop.

For SURE, if your car were equipped to burst into flames upon illegally parking it, illegal parking would immediately cease (almost). I bet the same is true for murderers, we just don't have the means to equip them for instant deadly correction. If we threw out the legal system and just started popping perps and the accused, my bet is almost all activity would stop, not just crime.

Well timed corrections do work. The trouble is, we don't have that in our system and we can't get it without throwing out the Constitution.

That's why we have the violence and recitivism and the largest prison populations of any country on earth as a percentage of our population.

Clearly whatever we are doing is a total failure or we would show improvement, not the opposite.

Sunday Morning Coffee: What's Next?

A look at some options for options traders.

http://tinyurl.com/5r69kx

Grym: GREAT post responding to 2nd. I could not agree with you more on all points presented.

Congrats on kicking tobacco, worse than heroin....

"If you have a person who is without a doubt guilty of a capital crime how the hell can you compare his few minutes of suffering to that which most people go through on their transition to death. This is total philosophical BS masturbation."

This is not about death or the suffering of criminals or comparisons. We all die. This is about the Constitution and protecting NEMO's rights.
We don't have "without a doubt" in reality.
There is always doubt.

Remember, during the American Revolution the Red Coats made all kinds of accusations and executed people for all kinds of offenses with no regard for their guilt or innocence. That's how we ended up with a Constitution nd Bill of rights, to prevent those abuses by the limitless resources of the State (or King).

Those rights were and are worth fighting for and certainly worth a friendly debate amongst patriots over whether we should give the state power over life and death. I can't see where the State has earned our trust for anything.
Is anyone here ready to gamble their future or life on the good will of the State or your local politically ambitious Prosecutor? NOT ME!
I think some of you agree or you wouldn't be emptying out the gun shops. I'm already stocked up.

I have a good example.

How many of you watched GW's dog Barney bite that reporter recently?

I know this answer because I watched the footage several times and dogs are my job, but your answers will be revealing.

Who was a fault, the dog or person?
This is where doubt in crime starts.

Craig:

The process of ascertaining guilt/innocence is not my issue. I am in agreement the difficulty of reaching such a state with certainty.

After such a state is reached, a few minutes of suffering on the part of the convicted is irrelevant.

Oh, as you know, I live in Mass. Even in this state people are looking to buy guns thinking the feces are about to hit the ventilator.

Nemo,
I watched the news the other night and a local shop was sold out of most everything and they were taking in $10,000 per day.

At this rate my stainless mini 30 and 14's will be worth a fortune.

I think they are as overreacting as those who said they wanted to move to Canada or Mexico when bush was elected.

It's rediculous.

The Dem party wants at least two terms, maybe more. They won't have more than one term if they fulfill the insane rantings of the IRA and the gun manufacturers. What a commercial.

Proof PT Barnum was a genius.

Sorry...rantings of the NRA....I was already thinking 'insane' and 'irrational'.

$10,000 a day in guns sales is irrational fear.
It sure doesn't take much to whip some people into a frenzy over an unfounded rumor.
I think that's how Himmler operated....

Here is a real life story
My daughter is a volunteer at local hospital. He fills out form for people who come in at emergency room for treatment.
She said last evening there were 30 people waiting at emergency room, some over 3 hours.
Suddenly ambulance came with wounded shootout person and police with them. She learn from people there that wounded person is in and out of jail a lot, a drug dealer and never hold a job. But he has to be treated first reason is his injury is more critical than other who are waiting to she doctor, and he does not have any insurance. While other who are waiting at emergency room for over 3 hours most have private company provided insurance.
She was upset and learning that something is wrong with health care system?

Animals are smart, smarter than most humans give them credit, IMO. Great example! GW's dog is smarter than I would have hoped. Good Boy, Barney, now go find a salesman!

Yesterday we had unusually nice weather, so Poncho, my dog, decided to spend his day watching over his friends, the ducks. He lay among the leaves chewing a fresh bone which he found who knows where. It's difficult to spot a small (4.5lb) light brown dog amongst the leaves, so I knew the hawks/monsters weren't about to come near, and his friends could frolic in the pond care-free all day. I was pleased. How's that for synergy?

BEIJING (AP) -- China announced a $586 billion stimulus package Sunday in its biggest move to stop the global financial crisis from hitting the world's fourth-largest economy.

A statement on the government's Web site said China's Cabinet had approved a plan to invest the amount in infrastructure and social welfare by the end of 2010.

Grym said,

"I would not make any sentence mandatory. Doing so negates or limits the job of judges too much. We need to make sure we elect or appoint qualified judges and monitor their performance once seated."

I need to add my 2 cents from personal experience. I worked at Folsom prison in the 70's doing boilers, AC, electrical, plumbing etc... Thanks to Rose Bird a whole bunch of felons walked. We used to have the Rose Bird motto of "Use a gun and go to your room". I had a man who was convicted of 2 counts of 1st degree murder get out after 11 years because the indeterminate sentencing was not fair. That's because the judges are allowed to legislate from the bench. Look at California with it's recent gay marriage issue which was overturned by the courts and then the voters reinstated it with Prop 8 just last week. I say don't give the politicians and special interests the power to appoint their favorite buddy's as judges and then get their agenda approved bypassing the peoples mandates.

Grym- Legalize drugs? Absolutely- the illegal drug industry is hands down the largest source of employment for criminals worldwide...also the largest source of funding for crime, including terrorism...

2nd,
You're right on. And if you study Alcohol prohibition, you'll discover that before prohibition the Mob wasn't all that powerful but with the money and influence they gained from running illegal Alcohol, they were nearly untouchable after that. They could buy whole cities.

Now contrast that with where we are today and how much longer this current prohibition has been going on and you'll realize that these current gangsters can likely buy whole states and countries with their wealth.

I believe one of the main reasons prohibition is still enforced is directly because of the Illegal drug lobby and their massive influence over politicians.

What the government has allowed is for a new Mob to form that is 10 times more powerful than the Alcohol prohibition Mob.

Rob.

2nd
Main reason of not legalized drug is it will put lots of lawyer out of business.
Lots of people in low enforcement will lose job
And will affect many colleges who train and teach criminal justice
These are all powerful lobby that will not let it happen

I love it CP. Our ducks and chickens always keep an eye out and head for cover at the first sign of trouble.
My dogs mind my sheep and keep them in various unfenced areas for mowing/grazing while I do something else. If the sheep start to wander too far the dogs move to their heads to keep them contained.

Good dog Poncho!

to continue on vinod's post, re China stimulus.

http://tinyurl.com/5pmt3f

Hoping this is the fuel we need to get off the runway.

Rob/vinod- that is why (hopefully without sounding jaded) i think fighting human nature is an uphill battle...in general, power goes to those who want it badly enough, and once there, the vested interests of those in power are locked in place by the exercise of that power...we all want more, and once we have it, we want to protect it..

Not to mention the Pharmaceutical industry.

NYUgrad...it won't be a runway, it will be a launch pad; there's been a ton of fuel "approved" for use, but you're right, they're either standing around protecting their cache, or they're afraid to use it...

http://tinyurl.com/6jlbtd

"The Group of 20 nations is ready to act ``urgently'' to bolster growth as the world's leading industrialized economies seek to battle the threat of recession, a draft of a statement to be released today says."

BRIC Plans

Brazil, Russia, India and China, the so-called BRIC nations, plan coordinated measures to increase trade and capital flows among their economies, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said in an interview. Mexican Deputy Finance Minister Alejandro Werner said slower economic growth and lower food and commodity prices justify cutting interest rates.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the G-20 are laying the groundwork this weekend for a Nov. 15 heads-of-state summit in Washington. The ministers' talks end today.

Another reason to legalize all drugs would be the saving of the $29 billion DEA budget and the release of all those employees to do productive work, keeping perhaps few with a spare billion to use as an ounce of prevention.
Then again, with the decline of hedge funds, and perhaps a lowering of wall street bonuses, it may time to short Colombia (and perhaps the Mexican peso).

it's still clear no one's on board, and of course, i still think they will be prevented from getting on board...that +1500 day will come...

Grym - Bird-shot ahead of a few slugs in a pocket .22 for carry fall/spring cotton-mouths, leaving black and milk snakes alone. I've had a Black bear approach within a few feet while arguing about who had the upper hand. It took some convincing to change his mind. Talk about a grouch, he huffed and puffed the whole time! They'll disappear and double-back on you sometimes...

we would save not only the 29b allocated to the DEA, but the untold trillions spent by users or lost by victims...the number must be staggering...

Rob, do you mean LEGAL drug lobby?

I am not aware of an illegal drug lobby. :>)
I thought the illegal drug lobby (NORML?) was lobbying for decriminalization.

If it were decriminalized then the industry would still be the largest employer of *former* criminals now turned tax paying herbal pharmaceutical *distributors*, just like liquor stores.

Craig- anyone lobbying on behalf of drug interdiction programs is, IMO, the equivalent of an illegal drug lobbyist...the bulk of the money sent to Colombia for interdiction, for instance, ends up where?

Vinod,

Regarding the inmate who was given treatment for a bullet wound before other people in the emergency room for less critical health issues, what is it exactly that you think should have happened??

Do you think sentencing this prison is not enough and perhaps we the people should additionaly deny prisoners from adequate treatment for medical issues (just because they are in jail?).

For me, I believe in human rights and don't agree with mistreating prisoners just because. I think it is very dangerous if our society turns into a police state but more and more people are beginning to think like you.

GM, along with Ford and Chrysler, wants a bailout in total of about 50Billion. Mich mayors and Gov in photo ops begging the funds for the "American people".

OK, so then we read that GM is spending current funds to expand its China operations. Tell me again - who did they say would benefit by giving GM our tax dollars?

http://tinyurl.com/6723nq

Roseville,
Can't say I'm not concerned about the idea that people think they can vote on civil rights of others in the negative. That's why Supreme Court Justices are lifelong appointments, to remove them from the temporary whims of the voters.

I think it may be premature to declare victory as this proposition will go right back to the Supreme Court that decided in favor of gay rights to begin with and they are unlikely to go against their own precedent.

I am not familiar with the proposition, but amending the Constitution is a long process requiring 3/4 affirmative majorities across several levels of governance and the voters.
I would think it takes more than a majority vote on a proposition to do anything other than start the process of amending the state Constitution. Otherwise it is doomed in the Supreme Court.

French and Germans battle over nuclear waste storage. Germans don't want French waste storage in their country(salt mines), as planned.

Japanese auto manufacturers are targeting middle-east countries for market share, planning Isuzu track factory. Big moves to remediate slump.

Bill - I sometimes wonder if the percentage of comments here that, at least to me, seem to be off-topic for your stated purpose for this blog is taking toooo much time for many of us to wade through for the relevant stuff.

I know you don't have time for it because you have said so.

8(

[Bill Cara note:

With the new blog platform we are moving to, there will be flexibility to handle this is a way that is fairly simple. We'll see.]

Thanks 2nd....THAT illegal drug lobby.....

That's quite a group.
Law Enforcement at all levels
Pharma Co's.
Border Patrol
Immigration
Customs
A whole slew of governments spanning the globe.
Arms, airplane,helicopter brokers
The Military industrial folks (satellites, reading this e-mail, etc)

Man, once you take a look all you can see for miles is big fat pig asses at a very looooonnnngggg trough.

Yes, $50B for GM to create overseas jobs, I can see that. It deviates from the concept of "Change" and aligns with the "Your Money or Your Life" theme we're so familiar with.

What Vanillabean said....

The hospitals are supposed to make health choices.

We convict people in courts with juries, not emergency rooms with Dr's and nurses.

If we start doing that then we will cease being America.....as much as this story pisses me off otherwise.

This person is a danger to society and needs to be, um, er' kenneled.

2nd,

I used to be 100% in the market or out, most of the time. I did real well with that for 5 or 6 years there, but after the past year, I don't think I'll ever put that 100% back in. In retrospect, it was foolish to have done so in the past, especially given that I don't have an income to fall back on. I suspect there are others like me out there, in particular those who used to believe that "buy and hold" would always work in the long run, now having lost 40% in the past year, that will now also reconsider their risk tolerances, if and when they go back in.

I'm not saying they won't, I'm just thinking it will take time.

Newsweek is running a 3 part excerpt from a diary kept during the Depression. Quite interesting, not saying we're in parallel circumstances.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/168045

I found these portions interesting.

>

>

>

Grym - "this is the end of anyone believing buy and hold. Jeff Macke says to either stay on the sidelines or be ready to buy what looks good v. short term and take profits early."

I'm not buying the position of the crowd, although I think the trading part is necessary to make up losses. Are we on the brink, or not? Do we go down the toilet, or not?

I don't have an answer for how low we can go without falling off a cliff, but I think we're very close to a kneepoint. There's the million-dollar question.

From Newsweek:

June 5, 1931. Immediately after the 1929 crash the speculators rushed in to buy "bargains" but were badly mistaken because the market kept going down and down even tho' industrial leaders kept on assuring the people that everything was fine and the worst was over. At the present time the newspapers are urging people to buy these "bargains" but opinion is much divided as to whether or not the bottom has been reached.

June 15, 1931. Stocks continue to go lower and lower and dividends are being slashed right and left. For over a year now people have been buying stocks at what they think are bargain prices. These prices are much below 1929 but there is no way to tell if they have reached bottom. Only the blue chip stocks are still high. It seems there should be no rush to buy bargains in a panic. The opportunities are many and the period is often protracted. The best time to buy, of course, is when the panic is almost over. My guess is that we haven't seen the end yet.

[Subsequent annotation, dated February 12, 1936. I am re-reading this. These early buyers were badly mistaken and many of them were wiped out. The market reached bottom in the summer of 1932. After the summer of 1932 a slow upturn began.]

July 30, 1931. Magazines and newspapers are full of articles telling people to buy stocks, real estate etc. at present bargain prices. They say that times are sure to get better and that many big fortunes have been built this way. The trouble is that nobody has any money. On account of numerous bank failures, the few people who have money are afraid to spend it and are buying government securities. From the extreme of speculation in 1929, people have now turned to the extreme of caution. In my own case I find it a problem to take in enough to pay expenses and there is nothing left for investment.

Rusoro:
An agreement was signed on Friday between Rusoro and Venezuela in Bolivar state where the LC mine is situated. But the agreement is not to mine LC as all of the news articles from Reuters stated. It is an agreement to mine Kaolin; a pure form of clay to process porcelain. Venezuela has the purest form of that type of clay and the deposit is very large. Reuters chose to comment on the wrong mineral in play. If it really was the LC gold deposit Rusoro would have made a bigger share price move. Its share price only moved .02 cents on Friday.

Credit markets caused the mess; credit markets must loosen for a stock market bounce.

The TED spread (Treasury, EuroDollar spread - between 3 month uninsured Eurodollar rate and 3 month T-bill rate) has come off crisis levels, from 5 to 2:

http://tinyurl.com/2uwt2g

LIBOR (the interbank London lending rate) has come WAY down: from 4.6 to 1.6 (go to stockcharts.com, and plug in $libor).

These are key measures of risk aversion, affecting huge amounts of middle eastern and Russian capital, among other sources.

When rates come down so dramatically from all-time-high levels, it means that the global reflation is working. The bounce can continue – at least until the next shockwave! –

Jock

Vanillabean
I do not have any opinion about it.
I just reported what young people are seeing and thinking

Stktrader - Rusoro, Rusal

With the world's largest, most cheaply recoverable gold deposit in the world at hand, will Rusoro decide to exit the gold business and concentrate on porcelain? I think the clay is just foreplay.

Also, per Vheadline, "RUSAL to mine bauxite and produce aluminum in Venezuela

Interfax cited Mr Igor Sechin Deputy Prime Minister of Russia as saying that United Company RUSAL will mine bauxite and produce aluminum in Venezuela. He said that 'Cooperation in the mining industry is growing. RUSAL will be implementing projects to mine bauxite and produce aluminum.'" (Article went on to say that Rusal would work with CVG, the same gov't mining entity with which Rusoro has its JV).

Re WIR

Sending Detroit into Formula 1 and telling them not come back without some wins is spot on, Bill. The US auto industry got slow and stupid, just like its cars. It never really grasped that people had begun making their car buying decisions on more than chrome and delusions of power. They responded to people's needs for efficiency and quality with nasty little boxes that fell to bits in a few seasons if they hadn't already rusted or caught fire. Wait, don't get me started on cars.

Also, Remembrance of those who gave everything that we could be here peacefully chatting on a Sunday morn must include the men and women who gave their lives to save lives in the midst of war. These were the fire fighters who fought to save their cities, who rescued civilians trapped in bombed and burning buildings. They were the ones whose job was to walk straight into the inferno just to make sure there was no one caught inside. Sometimes they did not walk out. They were the ones who crawled under the rubble to hold the hand of a person trapped there, knowing the whole thing could collapse at any moment. Sometimes it did. Remember them.

My father was a London Fire Brigade section leader during The Blitz. I shall always be proud. I shall always remember. His grandchildren will know him for the hero he was.

NPR All Things Considered (Nov. 7, 2008) program

Informative series-- a snapshot of how a foreign bank, Wisconsin schools and Philadelphia municipal bonds are involved with the financial crisis

1. Wisconsin schools shocked by bad investments

2. Depfa Bank (one of the top 5 players “in a particular municipal-finance specialty”).

3. Municipalities squeezed in bond market (IF YOU OWN MUNICIPAL BONDS, you may want to listen to this one closely)

http://tinyurl.com/6z38u2

3 separate audio replays. Click on one or follow the connection from 1 to 3. Approx. 4:00-8:20 each.

If link begins with Irish – German Bank, stop and click on Wisconsin schools to maintain sequence.

Jock,
I am aware that you know worlds more about the mining business in Venezuela than I ever will, and that I am living on hope that KRY will get the permit. But just maybe Kry will get the permit with an inmmediate behind the scenes sell to the Russians. That would make everyone happy. The KRY shareholders could get out at a reasonable price, the Venezulans won't be sued and the Russians will have access to all that KRY has to offer; equipment ready to move on the project, the permits and all of the intellectual properties to mine that particular deposit.

Financial Times has a pix from depression of a man about 50 sleeping on a bench in his overcoat.

Bill has made a very generous offer, inviting us down to Nassau next April. I truly hope that a large number in this community "dance" over the next few months and can meet face to face. I know that my trip to Toronto a year ago for the Cambridge Gold Show and meeting Bill, Jock, and others was a great experience. I can only imagine what Bill will have planned when he's talking of meeting CEO's, traders, etc.

A great memory from the Gold Show was sitting elbow to elbow with Rob McEwen who Bill had invited to sit with the Cara community and give his views on the industry.

Bill opens doors that some of us couldn't get close enough to knock on, never mind walk through.

On Bill's vision, the blog's 5 year anniversary, and the implosion of HB&B -

I was just thinking how big and bold Bill's critique of HB&B was when I first read the blog 3 years ago. YET, he sounded a bit quijote-esque, tilting against the all-powerful windmills of our time. His proposals were ideas almost too big to be believed possible.

Well, Bill's biggest and best call of them all was the damage which HB&B's concentration of unchecked power was doing to average people, and the systemic danger it represented. Wall St. has now imploded!

Last Tuesday, in my view, another idea almost too big to hope became real: election of a dynamic and brilliant new type of leader as US president. A man who rose from below conquered the heights of academia, and methodically plotted a meteoric rise to power.

Lawrence Tribe, noted Harvard constitutional law scholar, had said Obama was his best student ever. http://tinyurl.com/664yr7

Might Obama, who went on to teach constitutional law for 12 years at Univ. of Chicago, come to see the need to effect major change on Wall St. as necessary to protect the constitution? Or, will he become the intellectual captive of those folks who surrounded him on the stage Friday?

I thought Bill's comments in today's WIR on Goldman Sachs were right on the mark. Bill, how about a "sub-blog" entitled nomoregovernmentsachs.com to highlight these issues directly? or a policy tract posted as a one-time major statement on the blog? I'm sure there are folks in the community who could help craft and embellish such an effort for maximum impact.

I think your credibility could attract a readership from major influential media which might just reach the mind of America's new leader.

In any event, thanks for your biggest call of all!

[Bill Cara note:

Thanks Jock. I'd be prepared to take on something like that. But I'd need help because getting four hours a day sleep is getting to be wearing on me. There are still people who think I do all this myself plus start a new business in a new country in a new home, challenging the securities regulators to let me push the envelope. Since I arrived this time on Sept 14, I haven't had much of a life. So, I will give it some thought, but need to be comfortable I can deliver before I make a commitment.]

The twenty five plus year debt bubble is imploding. As my post below, by no means I am expert but I am trying to see through fog.

Since the Reagan administration our country has been on a debt binge, and during the unprecedented global growth story of the last five years the world has joined the USA in creating more money.
Thanks to kaimu we know money is debt, debt is money. Since money is tied to debt and the majority of money is created out of nothing at all, instead of hard labor and work of our money that is debt is nothing. Asset prices have been inflated beyond the historical curve/average especially in the last 15 years.
My example is take a chart of the SP 500 and go back lets say 40 years, compare it to the volume too. Since the debt binge started the volume shot through the roof! Just a thought there..
As far as stagflation, I will disagree. I am way more in the camp of "StagDEflation". It seems that the de-leveraging is going to have WAY more power than we could imagine. I don't think we have seen the power of it yet. Roubini has been arguing that we will experience StagDEflation instead of stagflation.

More food for thought.
From Mauldin's Letter this week.

"Look at the explosion of consumer debt (credit cards, auto loans, bank loans) over the last 20 years, rising to $2.6 trillion. Household debt, including mortgages, skyrocketed from 47% of personal income in 1959 to 117% in the fourth quarter of 2007. And from 25% of GDP in the first quarter of 1952 to 98%. (Gary Shilling)
Let's look at some numbers. Since 1 January, 2008, owners of stocks of US corporations have suffered about $8 trillion in losses, as their holdings declined in value from $20 trillion to $12 trillion. (Losses in other countries have averaged about 40%.) Homeowners will soon see their equity down by as much as $8 trillion, and those losses are likely to increase.

As highlighted here repeatedly, mortgage equity withdrawals counted for a full 3% of annual GDP growth in the period from 2002-2007. MEWs have fallen by 95%, and are falling again this quarter. Credit card debt is being reigned in. In fact, as the chart below shows, bankers are not surprisingly tightening lending standards to consumers, and raising their rates. (Again, from Haver Analytics, courtesy of Northern Trust)
Much of US GDP growth has been fueled by debt. And that debt is now going to be much harder to get, as equity in both houses and stocks has fallen precipitously."

He also says in the letter that we have borrowed tomorrow's money to fuel the boom. This means to me, that his argument for the debt unwind/deflation will be very powerful. Again, I think we are discounting it and not fully respecting the sheer power of the unwind. All actions by the FED and global central banks are futile and have done nothing. Goods and services will only get cheaper. Home prices will only go down, more write downs, debt being destroyed/money burns away. Those actions have caused more precipitous liquidity traps and those traps have no end in sight as the FED is first/last/only lender of resort.

Denninger's post today
"The greatest area of danger here is that The Fed is in fact trying to catch not a falling knife but rather a falling piano. The idea that The Fed can prevent a debt deflation of this magnitude is pure folly; even with expanding its balance sheet from $800 billion to over $2 trillion in less than a year and increasing its leverage to 50:1 (as of the most recent Fed report) it pales beside a housing market that has roughly $3 trillion of bad debt to be expunged - and that's just one sector of damage.

Taken in total the debt that must be defaulted in order to restore balance is likely in the $8-10 trillion range in the United States, and The Fed is not limiting its influence-peddling to the US. The swap lines it has opened to places like South Korea are an attempt to prevent debt deflation there from reflecting back into trade and global currencies; when one looks at the global deflationary forces at play one is staggered - they may in fact exceed global GDP (~$50 trillion)"

The estimations are amazing, maybe over exaggerated but nevertheless HUGE numbers.
This unwind will eventually hit countries hard all over the globe, as Denninger mentions to watch ICELAND.

My thoughts are if deflation is taking place, then those who produce the goods (not services) will be hit very hard, as their hard physical assets will go down in value. Money is burning faster than it can be printed, if there are NO new jobs then where is the demand going to come from?
China can only prop their economy for so long, until not.

In closing, I am sure the ROW will still buy our t-bills/bonds (thanks to Obama's Rock the world tour turnout) for a while so the fear of our dollars entering back into our country is years away 8-10 or longer...
THe world needs certainty and time to unwind and fix itself.

Maybe I am way off base but these are my opinions and I believe we need to retrace back to 1999 prices of goods (probably overshoot that) before we can even discuss true/real inflation.

Sentiment Charts - my review of weekly sentiment charts indicates no trend change yet, imo, but at least there is sufficient chart positivity for a newly reinforced hope of a trend change soon.

Aside from the charts, I do like the positive change in funds flow (not the same of Bill's "funds flow") seen in AMG Data that shows inflows of money back into funds last week to equal about 25% of the total funds outflow produced n October - not bad - but on the other hand it might just mean that P.T. Barnum had it right.
http://tinyurl.com/3fpbfw

We had two more banks to fail in the US over the weekend. No FOMC meet is scheduled for November this year, but there were FOMC meets in Novembesr after the 2003 Bubble burst. Maybe, with the bank holiday on Tuesday, something dramatic will be announced, after which who knows? The PPT probably has a few billions left in the Treasury to spend before the end of the year, and a solid gap up might just get something rolling through the end of the year.

Jmho.

Sorry, "there were FOMC meets in Novembesr after the 2003 Bubble burst." should have read "there were FOMC meets in the Novembers after the 2003 Bubble burst" [actually in 2004 and 2005].

spot

stktrader - KRY, my final, final tears ...

You write "I am living on hope that KRY will get the permit."

Hope is not a strategy! - Look, I don't know that much about mining. But, that's not the point. I urge you and the other KRY babies to view this with cold, clear calculation, not with hope!

I'm not a fundamental analyst, but I do see that most of the assets on KRY's balance sheet are "properties" - to which they have no legal rights! Unlike GRZ, they don't HAVE the concession to las Cristinas, only a contract to mine it for its government owner.

That contract, in my view, is not a significant asset, which can be surely canceled at the government's discretion. Furthermore, I've been told, but haven't verified, that KRY's contract with CVG has a clause wherein KRY forfeited any international legal recourse regarding the contract.

The other assets on KRY's balance sheet are $110M in plant and equipment, against which they have $115M in liabilities = insolvent, unless you ascribe value to the VZ properties !

Unlike KRY, GRZ has plant and equipment, which Otto (who IS a financial analyst) values at north of $1 per share. I wonder about that. These plant and equipment assets are in addition to the concession to las Brisas, itself an asset of some value, unless Chavez decides to invalidate the concession for non-performance. In VZ telecoms, I was obligated to build out my network by a date certain, or lose my concession.

In late August, Rusoro sent GRZ a "letter of interest" valuing GRZ's equity at $90M which GRZ rejected out of hand. Now, GRZ's market cap is $30M. Oops, mighta, shoulda taken that offer!

Anyway, Otto believes GRZ will be bought out at higher than today's stock price. But, he (and I and Bill and ex-CEO Todd Bruce, and many others) have written off KRY.

When KRY's contract is likely canceled, they'll go bankrupt, and their assets on the ground in VZ or in storage in New Orleans will likely be bought for pennies on the dollar.

I don't particularly "hope" for that or for Rusoro's JV to develop las Cristinas. I just try to assess probabilities and get (then stay) on the right side of the trade.

Enough tears shed for KRY ...

China to invest $586B by 2010

Per NYTimes: "Beijing said it would spend an estimated $586 billion by 2010 on wide array of national infrastructure and social welfare projects, including constructing new railways, subways, airports and rebuilding communities devastated by an earthquake in southwest China in May."

Overnight, might that not juice the world's stock markets? and over time, benefit Dr. Copper, Mr. Steel, and Uncle Zinc?

US Bonds - A reminder that the bond market will be closed Tuesday 11/11/08 in observance of Veterans day, and to plan accordingly (whatever that might mean).

Jock,
You are an angry man I must say. All of this "stuff" that we humans do is not worth all of those feelings. In the end all one really needs is ones good health, a comfortable place to hang ones hat and the love of family and friends. Being right is no always a virtue. As far as KRY, I was here when Bill made is call and did not sell. I am not over exposed and I have no emotional attachment to the outcome of the LC mine. It's only money and I have much more at this point in time. If I am on the right side in the end I won't be struting my stuff as I am sure you will be. You are alot like Otto; two birds of a feather. Arrogance is not a virtue. jmho

Jock - Although I don't wish to influence the decision making process or offend, and FWIW, I want to say if I were holding KRY or considering a purchase, I would be thanking you for spending so much time and effort to explain the risks. I view your matter of fact position as a friendly gesture worthy of commendation, not condemnation. Please continue to put your views out in the open for the benefit of those interested.

Just an observation but the malls and big box stores, and restaurants are packed in the NJ area. Went to Jersey Gardens mall/outlets yest and it took 30 min to find parking. i was hoping to go get some pants in a comfortable non mob type atmosphere. I was wrong.

I guess consumers are still spending, just not as much on things like cars and large ticket items?

I guess i will stick to online shopping again this holiday. I just cant stand the lines, crowds, and crying babies all around me.

norm - From my perspective, money can be made and distributed at the speed of light. What I'm not sure of though, is how quickly it can be mopped up. I'm confident world government doesn't want Armageddon, and the ride is likely to be quite bumpy depending on their ability to accurately assess, coordinate, and convincingly misrepresent the effect of monetary policy decisions.

stktrader -

I'm not angry, or arrogant, don't "strut" (I make a LOT of wrong calls) just a bit amazed.

Jock,
If I mistook your use of words that comments can create, you have my apology. The next few weeks before the election in Venezuela and the Russian delegation should bring a close to this chapter. I know EVERYONE will be happy to finally get that.

Wow, how 'bout that POG folks, it's up 2.6% in just one hour. The interventionists must be on doughnut break, or late to work this morning....

Craig,

I haven't been, nor have I seen anything from others here assuming guilt or disposing of the rights of the accused. We're talking about "beyond reasonable doubt" and after due process of law here.

Two wrongs? Race? Bypassing the Constitution? Come on, we are more able to prove conclusively than ever before using DNA and other techniques. We're not talking lynchings, we talking justice and protection of society, whether on the street or in prison.

You initiated the cost comparison issue, not me.

What the heck has Italy got to do with the issue? That is up to the Italians not us. Saddam?

Don't, however, give me any more of your soft on crime view or slip in straw men to cloud the discussion. If you choose to be a pacifist or are more concerned about the rights of the criminal than the victim, that is your prerogative.

I'll say this much — we've about beat this topic to death. I'll stand by my assertions that if death is immanent it is a very effective deterrent and rest my case.

Gold opens up $16 from Friday's close...

Nikkei up close to 4%...

http://tinyurl.com/yrm3b

Grym - All extremists must be shot dead! :)

re:FXP

Next support at 56 IMO.

Do your own homework. I'll throw a stink bid in.

bsi87,

I think you are beating a dead horse chasing that one.

I was thinking more of being in front of a train with plenty of time to jump off the track.

Freemarket News: Foreigners cannot buy real property in India...
http://tinyurl.com/6k2zmf

Wow! Good thing I sold those GG puts Friday with Gold up this much.

Great WIR Bill. Inspirational as always!!

And one of my early New Year's Resolution's is to dance well enough to join you in the Bahamas for the party.

Rob.

Mac

How's that UK rally on the rate cut and close on the high working out for u?

full disclosure: No position in FXP. Long BGU/TNA

Bill talked about military service...This is self explanatory. For those of you not familiar with David Wilcox or John Gorka, they're definitely worth a listen:

Let Them In Lyrics

Artist: David Wilcox
Album: Home Again

from Home Again
..............................................

by John Gorka
"Let Them In was made into song by John Gorka from a poem found in a hospital in the Philippines during World War II. The nurse that found the poem kept it all these years until the recent war brought out all the memorabilia. Luckily, her daughter sent a copy to John"

Let them in, Peter
They are very tired
Give them couches where the angels sleep
And light those fires

Let them wake whole again
To brand new dawns
Fired by the sun not wartime's
Bloody guns

May their peace be deep
Remember where the broken bodies lie
God knows how young they were
To have to die
God knows how young they were
To have to die

So give them things they like
Let them make some noise
Give dance hall bands not golden harps
To these our boys

And let them love, Peter
For they've had no time
They should have trees and bird songs
And hills to climb

The taste of summer in a ripened pear
And girls sweet as meadow wind
With flowing hair

And tell them how they are missed
But say not to fear
It's gonna be alright
With us down here

Let them in, Peter
Let them in, Peter
Let them in, Peter

..............................................

John Gorka, all rights reserved

[Bill Cara note:

Thank you kindly.]

How do stocks perform DURING a recession? Here are some excerpts from tonight's John Hussman's article (http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc081110.htm) that address this question and help us maintain a perspective on what to expect UNTIL a strong recover in the stock market begins:

"All of us know that the stock market bottoms 6 months before the end of a recession.

The problem is that this “fact” isn't really true. The actual facts are that substantial losses typically occur between the market's peak and the point that a recession is universally recognized, and major gains reliably begin only about three months prior to the end of a recession, and continue into the recovery.

Aside from that, between the point that a recession is well-recognized, and a short period before the recession ends, the market's direction is extremely variable and largely depends on how the economic news evolves, as well as the extent to which stock prices become oversold or overbought in the interim. There can be strong and prolonged advances during this period, as well as wicked declines from points where the market becomes overbought."

"In more than half of the post-war recessions, stocks were nearly the same place 6-8 months before the recession ended as they were two years before it ended."

"An ongoing recession should not be evidence that keeps an investor completely out of the market (at least once that recession is well recognized). Instead, the data should remind us that even if the market experiences a great deal of volatility and sideways movement as a recession progresses, stock prices can be expected to launch into substantial gains before the recession is over.

This echoes Warren Buffett's remark a few weeks ago – “if you wait for the robins, the spring will be over.” Buffett isn't buying because he's confident that the recession has less than 6 months to go. He's buying because he finds stocks worth buying. Stocks can have very mixed performance over the course of a recession, but they almost always advance strongly before it ends."

"Information in a recession evolves very slowly. A lot of bad news, as well as very negative expectations, are already built into stock prices here. While I don't think that gives us a “bottom,” I do think it gives us enough room for information to ebb and flow about whether the downturn will be worse than people think, or maybe not as bad as they expect. As that information flows day-by-day, week-by-week, month-by-month, the market could easily have a 25-35% range with a lot of sideways action, even in the context of what might turn out to be a prolonged recession.

Investors often have little success in actually buying low and selling high, because to buy low is to buy into fear and uncertainty, and to sell high is to sell into enthusiasm and confidence. Investors pay an enormous price for constant comfort."

Conclusions from my previous post? John Hussman's info seems to suggest, as was already noted by Bill and 2nd_ave, that the next few years will be a "traders market," where buying low (e.g., now) and selling high (e.g. in a month or two) will be critical for a good performance.

Shanghai and Hong Kong up 6%...

maybe it's down to when the Fed talks, people laugh...when Beijing talks, people listen...even I have a hard time believing that...

re:Beijing

It's the triumph of hope over experience.

bsi- LOL...well, without hope, we would all be dead...

CK,

Your correct but very few seem to really understand the magnitude of the monster we are fighting.
My dad always told me you can't eat a monster all at once but you can one bite at a time, that means it will take time. We/the whole world is over extended in money. Is printing money going to fix the problem? I doubt it.

The problem is there is nothing more than a global house of cards supporting all this money/debt. That is what is scary.

I encourage all of us to get in the bleachers and view the game instead of playing it. China is not going to get through their problems with their stimulus package. Property values are down over 50% in many areas there... Some estimates say if they don't maintain 7% GDP growth there will be a peasant uprising. Granted it could be 5% or not a full uprising but the point we can't underestimate sociological psychology.

We seem to think we are hurting here in north america...

Now no one wants armageddon but the crap that wall street polluted all over the world will meet it's maker.

Like it or not, in my belief deflation/unwind/de-leveraging has just begun. All the wall street analysts missed this, and they will continue to say bottom over and over until they are right, eventually they will be.
Early next year banks will come back for more capital.

We are in a zero interest rate policy environment, that will have no sign of getting better until the unwinding has stopped. A dollar tomorrow will be worth more than today.
Lack of equity in homes will keep forces that be, to hold down libor rates if not this problem continues on much longer as defaults only pick up. Of course the TED has to get back to somewhat of a normal level. If it doesn't and the banks don't write down the principle the housing problem will continue to continue.

Lets not forget about private equity debt rollover, HELOCs, credit cards and yeah.... commercial real estate.
Throw in the home builders, auto industry and just about any other industry that thinks they deserve a hand out.

What about the people?

2nd,

"Hope" is not an investing strategy.

I prefer "Chance favors the prepared mind."

"Two months before Washington Mutual failed, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned then-CEO Kerry Killinger that he ought to sell the Seattle-based thrift before it deteriorated further"

http://tinyurl.com/65kwxk

norm- neither would i want to overestimate the magnitude of the problem...at the very worst, could the global economy not nationalize all financial institutions and simply cancel all derivative contracts and counter party obligations? it's not a nuclear disaster or a natural disaster...it's only a financial disaster; life-sustaining activity is functionally normally for the most part...

bsi- "Hope" is not an investing strategy." Neither is despair.

""Chance favors the prepared mind." Agreed.

Well, there goes the whole China growth story. Or are there still people out there discussing "Chindia?"

4tr. Yuan Chinese Stimulus

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/10/china-credit-crunch

Iceland

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/09/world/europe/09iceland.html?pagewanted=1&_r

Bird bedtime story

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnWuGWxhKfI

...and on a higher level, hope is absolutely necessary for life...for the vast majority of buy-and-hold accounts, we need to offer more than "better luck next time," no? i have colleagues who are truly suffering from bad advice, and i'm trying to figure out how best to offer advice without destroying their self-confidence...

Precedent is not always a good thing...

"Australia's government is to inject an extra A$3.4 billion ($2.3 billion) into the ailing car industry to offset tariff cuts and a global economic slowdown, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said on Monday."

http://tinyurl.com/68nh9k

"Hope" is not an investing strategy. - I prefer Dennis Gartman's answer to what he is recommending in this environment back in Sept.

"Long cash"

(BNN told him that's not an answer.)

I think buy and hold should be called buy and hope. This is the investing strategy used by 98% of the non-trading public.

For what it worth department. I drove from Kerrvile, TX to San Antonio on IH 10 today and all I saw were eighteen wheelers. Lots and lots of trucks. I don't think they were empty. My point, business is good somewhere. frankoo

So when the major market indices rally back to their 50 DMA, how many here will be buying into the belief that THE bottom is in (and look to increase long positions), and how many will be selling into that rally, with the notion that THE bottom is not in?

wavesmash- "long cash" was a good option last november...i'm not sure "long cash" is as attractive right now for someone who would have to take action to get there...it's a tough call to tell someone who's down, let's say 50%, "it could go down another 50% from here, so I would advise you to sell your positions."

Welfare - United States Federal
State and Local Government Spending Fiscal 2009

$3.1 trillion dollars.
http://tinyurl.com/58qz3n

"China spent a record 106 billion yuan (US$14.7 billion) on welfare programs last year, with almost a fifth of the funding coming from record lottery revenues."

http://tinyurl.com/5jz83u

To put that in perspective, Australia just spent 15% of all of China's welfare budget on car subsidies.

The US has 301 million people, give or take 20-30 million. China has 1.3 billion, give or take the population of the US.

So $293 billion a year works out to about... $225 per person?

Which buys 45 pairs of Calvin Klein jeans in China, or 250 Rolex watches if you buy bulk. :)

Despair and hope are wonderful conditions if 1) one recognizes when either have maxed out and 2) how to take advantage of the condition.

Tonite the Chinese believe the stimulus package will bail their economy out. I don't know whether it will or not. I do know that FXP 10 day ATR is 22 so just one day's average move would put FXP in the low 50's. A support line drawn across the last 2 lows shows 56 as support. I also know that FXP compared to IEF and VXN would likely approach RSI 7 day of 30. At that point, I get interested but I'd like to see a selling climax for FXP in the first 30 minutes and some buying in the last hour. But we'll see how the day evolves.

2nd,

hmm.... true.

i am not trying to sound like this is the worst possible event out there but my ideals are on the path that all asset prices maybe still to expensive as they are overpriced.

We really don't know what true value is, nor will we ever find that out because the rules change in a heartbeat.

What ticks me off is the lack of regard for those who work everyday. I understand all people work but enough with the bailouts.

We don't need redistribution of wealth, how about a free market. Stop spending treasury IOUs on companies who's balance sheets have black holes on them.

GM has a near a negative 60 billion dollar book value
http://tinyurl.com/55xrq4

on the buy and hold, historically it works if they are properly allocated.... with the exception of the "All the same" market (elliot wave international), when the debt bubble builds and all assets go up. now the unwind begins. All the same, it will go down, until it doesn't.

We could only hope those who were close to retirement were cash heavy, which i doubt it as my parents were not also... That is disappointing (understatement).

Good luck to all this week.

ToddinFL- I doubt that we've seen THE bottom...but I'm leaning towards seeing 10000 before we revisit 8000; JMO, of course...as for selling into strength, I would be doing that regardless of whether I think we've seen the bottom...

2nd,

Bought GE @ $32 (Blue chip, insurance policy, can't get hit in a bad market can it?), sold @ $21.90 & $20.90. Let's see if I'm smarter than Buffett, or smarter than a 5th grader. :)

I saw an article last week about Nortel. It's stock was over $1000 at one point.

http://tinyurl.com/5h7yne

I remember my friend's parents had a house, then a car, then a nice vacation worth of stock before selling. I'm sure many people can relate unfortunately.

Still have 100 shares left of The General, awaiting further orders.

My position was small (to most people, not me) and probably not necessary to sell, but it was bothering me so I got rid of it.

Agree though... it's a tough call. By no means would I recommend selling after a record-breaking downward event, without some upwards strength to sell into. No point in giving it away...

Best thing is to do what you feel most comfortable with. Cash isn't really doing much anyway, except beating the index.

http://tinyurl.com/5aha72

So in this case, would it make sense to sell tomorrow? Probably not. Make sense to buy tomorrow and dollar cost average? Maybe, but probably better diversifying than betting more on a losing horse. Make sense to hold?

Explains the low volumes I think.

bsi- hope and despair in the context of behavioral finance can indeed be taken advantage of...I've followed your trades for several weeks and appreciate both the fact that you post your entries and exits, and that you provide the rationale behind them...my comments tonight are in reference to the emotional states of individual investors to steep losses in their portfolios; in that context, hope and despair are more than trading concepts, and i'm trying to come up with the best approach(es) to handling their setbacks...

Re: hope and despair

A friend is down 30% or more in his 401k and he's asking me what to do. My only suggestion was not to sell now. But he fears he will lose more if not it all.

Mr. Fuld should have bought Buffett.

When you're paying for Buffett, you're paying for the brand.

To recap where we are today.

http://tinyurl.com/5slxtw

Spurning Buffett

"The answer was yes, Sokol told McGee. So Fuld called the 78-year-old Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway would buy preferred shares that would pay a dividend of 9 percent and could be converted to common at the then-market price of $40, the people said. That was costlier than what other investors demanded, Fuld was told by associates, and he spurned the offer. A few days later, on April 1, Lehman sold $4 billion of convertible preferred stock to public investors with a 7.25 percent interest rate and a 32 percent conversion premium. "

I hope those associates aren't with Lehman any more... other investors are not Buffett. :)

Anyway, why would Buffett want to buy a spinoff of Amex, something he's owned since 1964?

http://tinyurl.com/5mgjun

spin - make up a story; "spin a yarn"
off - murder: kill intentionally and with premeditation;

"leave the gun, take the canoli"

Losing all is not an option... the key is to diworseify.

If concerned about losing all, then sell a little and you won't lose all. But sell into strength... no point in just giving it away.

Interesting to note that the RSI < 30 list is clearing up a bit... strength or resignation?

Not sure if this qualifies as a motivational speech, but it sure is interesting to see the perspective from someone with 1000+ clients who fell into a scam (recently) and lost more than just 2 million dollars...

http://tinyurl.com/5c6yah

It will probably be harder to find the individuals who perpetrated the fraud that caused the Aug 28 - Oct 10 drop... hopefully somebody will. It should be staring us in the face.

And realize that we are still higher than Oct 10 in SPY... Q's seem to be sitting on the fence waiting for somebody to buy Yahoo.

Another interesting week to come... do you YHOO?

Mark Cuban did when he sold his company to them... spun it off if you will...

"Its great to see President Elect Obama aggressively taking on the economy prior to his taking office. Unfortunately, the economic advisory team that he has put together looks more like a semester’s worth of great guest speakers for an MBA class than an economic advisory team that can truly help him."

http://blogmaverick.com/

2nd,

Well, if one approaches investing like playing blackjack...if the player loses a set % of his poke, he gets up and leaves that table, either waiting till the cards get better at that table or another, assuming his basic play is good. If his basic play is not good, it doesn't matter - he'll continue to lose, no matter what the cards are...betting too much on a crap hand, not betting enough when the cards are in his favor, etc.

ALOHA !!

The ultimate "buy and holder" Warren Buffet, has done well for himself I think and he has done well for his Berkshire shareholders.

I have done well buying and holding XOM and CVX and gold and silver, so I sleep quite well at night and I doubt that changes at all the rest of my life.

Those who buy and hold "paper shufflers" like US Banks and those who buy and hold documented long term failures like GM, Ford and Chrysler who are three US government welfare addicts that have been begging from the US TAXPAYERS many times before this have fared horribly. Most all mutual funds and pension plans have been long term "buy and holders" of the aforementioned liabilities. Lets face it when GM can't even qualify for a GMAC loan then its time for US TAXPAYERS to JUST SAY NO! UAW workers you made your bed ... Did you really buy into the idea that unions could guarantee you eternal bliss by fiscally bleeding your employer forever?

Those here who hold juniors and are now down must have already known prior that the junior sector was risky. But then what is "risky"? We have to rethink that because now many once five star US Banks and insurance companies are either now BKed or penny stocks! Its all relative ... If it were not for US TAXPAYERS and US VOTERS foolishness many more huge US Banks would be in line with LEH right now! In fact AIG is back begging for more BAILOUT!! MORE BAILOUT PLEASE!! Then we have to sue the US FED to find out what bank trash they are buying "ON BEHALF" of US TAXPAYERS!

That's why I love gold and silver and all the commodities ... they're "REAL WEALTH"! Its been that way since cave man days! If you're tired of being gored by company, bank and government liabilities then you should own REAL MONEY! Real money has never had liabilities and has never filed bankruptcy. BK is for paper and those who hold it! Go ask any Icelander how all those paper investments worked out for them?

For Iceland ...

IT ALL WORKED UNTIL IT DIDN'T!!!

Who's next?

"i have colleagues who are truly suffering from bad advice, and i'm trying to figure out how best to offer advice without destroying their self-confidence..."

May I suggest, their portfolios need to be examined and adjusted as necessary, to ensure maximum gain in the event of a market recovery. Quality should be the primary focus.

"Did you really buy into the idea that unions could guarantee you eternal bliss by fiscally bleeding your employer forever?"

I was hoping someone would bring this up, kaimu wins the brownie point!

My contention is US automakers are forced to produce vehicles at a considerably higher cost than foreign manufacturers due to UAW constraint. In fact, I'm quite surprised at the current competitiveness in terms of quality.

ALOHA !!

I have an idea and a different perspective on the portfolio losses many Americans are suffering through. Perhaps there is a spiritual lesson in all this ...

Perhaps Americans should take a hint from their own 401k and IRA portfolios and downsize ... If your portfolio is down 30% then downsize your living by 30%! If its down 40% the downsize by 40%! If it is UP any then just stay where you are until it goes down!

I downsized my living back in 2002 by about 65% and I have to be honest I don't even miss it! In fact I am happier now than then ... I don't need a bunch of "crap" in my life to be happy. All that junk in your house is like a boat anchor and we all drag it around until we're on our death bed! Its quite loony actually! Think about it!

Here is a brief list of things I no longer own or live with:

1-Living space down from 2500sq ft to 900sq ft.
2-No living room
3-No kitchen
4-One bedroom(8x12)
5-No sofa
6-No dining room table
7-No carpets
8-No TV
9-No stove/oven
10-No dishwasher
11-No garbage service
12-No insulation
13-No heater
14-No video games
15-No Blackberry/IPhone
16-No laundry room
17-No guest quarters
18-No wine cellar
19-No fire place
20-No breakfast nook
21-No SUV
22-No restaurants
23-No movies
24-No newspapers
25-No suits
26-No watch
27-No swimming pool
28-No neighbors
29-No street lights
30-No freeways
31-No tall buildings
32-No crowds
33-No investment bankers

Yes, all that and I am happily married also, so guys there are American women out there who aren't total Barbies!

If you think you need some "thing" in your life then think again! In reality humans, especially Americans can get by on a LOT less than they now have. You would be shocked at how easily you can live without half the junk you now own!

On the other side of the equation I have five acres and no neighbors and the ocean is less than two miles away! I prefer land that produces food than a big house and pool! Living LARGE is in the eye of the beholder! I live LARGE here in Hawaii! This is the Garden Of Eden only without the snakes! HA!

SUPERSIZE is not all what its cracked up to be and neither is the American Dream ... We were all suckered into believing BIGGER IS BETTER and MORE GALORE!

AMERICA-FOLLOW YOUR 401KS AND DOWNSIZE!!!

"All created things are impermanent. Strive on with diligence."

no kitchen?

my IRA was down some 30% or more by autumn of 2002 (that year) - I held it and it came back. There has to be SOME faith in the markets, otherwise, you're all correct, its financial armageddon...and if that happens, we're likely to see all those life-sustaining entities you discuss start to deteriorate as well...markets have always run in cycles, and we're just on a down cycle the past year. Lots of gloom-and-doom in the latter posts, where's the Cara optimists in here?

wavesmash, re:GE - there's some interesting thoughts Bill has about GE in the WIR - worth a read. Also, if you liked it at $30+, you've gotta love it in high teens, no? Personally - no position; think they need to get back to the core businesses, what they do best and forget about the GE Capital part of it...

Asian markets up sharply - Shanghai and Tokyo +5%, Hong Kong +9%. And I realize that its 930AM here in Germany and I am only talking to myself since most of you are asleep at this hour. LOL.

Prolific WIR by Bill and discourse here. I wanted to say that I took my family to the new Canadian film Paschendale, and it is brilliant. Paul Gross is a star and also did most of the production, direction, and writing including great song at the end. Want to be reminded of some tough times in the history of our country. See it.

When I was hitchiking from Luxembourg to Paris in 1967, the frenchman who gave me a ride took a detour over to Vimy Ridge. We drove right up to it, and he made sure I understood and experienced France's gratitude to Canada for coming over and adding some punch to the Allied war effort.

For the things that a man does in war, he's going to have to pay sooner or later. When do we realize that it's good for absolutely nuthin. My father's genereation had to go back for WW2 a scant 25years later.

Why do we do it? Because we've always done it, it's something we do well, we do a lot of it, and we're good at it. Let's get off that bandwagon soon. I liked the comment earlier int he blog how that war bankrupted the big family dynasties, and they disappeared after. You'd think that we've been there done that enough times to learn not to. I honor the men who went. It was no picnic, and it took a lot of courage.

The wars on drugs, homeland security, and terrorism are now a large, largely useless socially destructive industry. Good luck Obama rooting the incumbents out of these enterprises. Help him out people. They have to go along with the federal reserve.

http://tinyurl.com/5h2kbs

The market is a Happy Girl this morning...check out the ducks.

Somebody said,

Don't ask man whether he likes war. You might as well ask whether he likes stone. Mentally, emotionally, psychologically, he was designed for war, was destined for it. War predated man and was there, waiting for him, when he arrived.

War?

Sometimes the alternative is death.

All generalities are false — including this one.