You certainly did Bill.

Cara 100 Update:

XOM - Downgraded to Neutral @ Credit Suisse

Bill
US 2009 recession futures on www.intrade.com plunge from high 70%s chance to 45% today. Huge dive! Any thoughts on whats going on?

[Bill Cara note:

It's something called Wealth Distribution. Can you say President Obama?]

opening positions in FXP/DXD. also looking at EEV,SDS,TWM. All at or approaching 50 DEMA.

Watching VIX/VXN approaching 50 DEMA. If they get there, I'll probably increase my short positions.

And I'll be closing my long positions I took when it looked like the End of the World As We Know It.

The EOM favorable trading period ends roughly Thursday morning.

As always, do your own homework.

FT did an article today on how Latin-American countries will handle the financial crisis better than many others, mainly because a much more solid financial system. For instance, the bank sector in Argentina has outstanding credits totaling only 10% of the country’s BNP. In Brazil and Mexico the numbers are 40 and 20%. This among other things, such a solid asset base and less exposure to toxic derivatives, makes a systemic crisis less likely in the region, according to FT.
Chile has performed extremely well (relatively speaking) this year, with the stock market down only 13,4% YTD.
Electric utility Endesa Chile reported net income up 120% for 3Q’08 YoY. The stock has gained 30% YTD.

http://www.incainvest.com

re:SLW

Max pain opts 5 bucks for Nov. It's been hitting 4.15.

See what happens today.

disclosure:long

gold is up sharply

it's easier to count the number of Cara 100 stocks NOT showing a Buy Alert...

Vad- so it's been impossible for anyone on the sidelines to find a good entry point into the broad market since it took off; where do you think they buy in?

side note- the Schwab billboard was changed over the weekend; it now reads "Paying good money for bad advice? Talk to Chuck." LOL

Blue Mtn Freezes Fund http://tinyurl.com/5c8u57

Reserve Bank of Australia dropped interest rates by 0.75 points. Market didn't react, which is strange, they were expecting a cut of between .25 & .50. This leads me to think that they either know something, or as they are playing it, they're desperate to stave off a recession here.

Bill, this sounds like a perfect description of life as a politician...

"To many people, life is about story-telling. You know, tell a good story and you’ll be invited anywhere."

We heard the stories, now comes the time to see the proof in the pudding.

I just returned from voting — Wow! You'd have thought they were giving away free Bear's tickets!

I have mixed feelings about the turnout, on the one hand (Geeze, I sound like an economist.) I'm glad to see people participating in such a basic privilege and responsibility, on the other, I'm disturbed by the amount of attempted vote buying through either continued or new tax benefits.

Also, I wonder how many of the first time, newly registered believe candidates will/can deliver on their "promises."

One thing is for sure, no matter who is the new White House resident — we will get change — but probably not much of what we would like to get.

Best wishes to the winner and God Save the Republic!

Look out Bombardier the Chinese are coming http://tinyurl.com/6ao5pt

I was posting on the wrong board.

It's a new day in the U.S.A.

Finally a president who knows how to pronounce "nuclear".

Republicans...you wouldn't have to be dealing with with this nightmare if your leadership weren't incompetent. Adios Reagan Revolution!

2nd... not that I have a hidden camera in their opffice :) but remember when I first started talking about signs of accumulation I saw in market action, and even re-posted my description of how it reflects itself on the tape? IMI, that's when it started. Gradually, in portions, committing caputal incrementally. Far from over, too

i think we have to test 10000, probably when no one's looking, so today's as good a time as any...

Sharky:

As the saying goes, "Be careful what you wish for." I expect, if the dems get a fillibuster proof senate, they will become very drunk with power. Why would they be any different?

"Vad- so it's been impossible for anyone on the sidelines to find a good entry point into the broad market since it took off; where do you think they buy in?"

Im in that camp. Don't want to chase.I like buying into weakness. I am as conflicted internally as the prognosticators are externally.

shark- isn't it funny how often minorities or the children of recent immigrants display better grammar, spelling, and pronunciation (not to mention better grades and more creative insights) than the graduates of Ivy League colleges?

Dixville Notch, NH results are in:

Obama 15
McCain 6

Obama is the 1st Democrat to win there since 1968.

http://tinyurl.com/6he9ky

make that "the privileged graduates of Ivy League colleges;" after all, they themselves graduate from Ivy League schools at a higher rate...

long TWM 90.41

Do your own DD.

Big crowd voting early this a.m. Arrived 06:15 a.m. and with the line, it took 1 hour, 10 minutes just to reach the booth.

Usually vote early, but this is the biggest crowd I've seen at this hour. Most noticeable were the number of young voters who usually don't show up to vote, at least at this time in the morning. Weather is perfect, so expecting a record turnout here in Chicago.
****************
TAN ETF traded with a 13 handle premarket. Now at 12.95.

S Showing continued strength this morning, up to 4.46 premarket after showing good move yesterday. Wish I had taken plunge a couple of days ago when the inner voice spoke. (Disc: small IRA position)

Agriculture looking strong also.

craig- i don't know, man...i still think it's a wall, not a slope...

dem/rep

fundamentally nothing will be different. Please - look at the bills that have been past in the last year alone. They both add crap for family and friends. Nothing different.

We need smaller government (less spending). Until that happens, I could care less who or what you want to call the party.
Bush governed more like a liberal, Clinton was very centric. Who knows what will happen after today.

wrote in Ron Paul. <--- wasted vote, yeah I know but my vote is out of protest. Voted out all incumbents except one who did not vote for tarp. his job is secure for one more term.

I suspect the Dems are keenly aware of another election two years from now. I wouldn't assume they would act as rashly as their immediate predecessors. I'm already hearing calls for moderation from people like Bob Kerry.
We shall see.

Norm:

I would generally agree, with a fillibuster proof senate, no reason for compromise.

Cara 100 Update:

DEO - Downgraded from a Buy to a Neutral at Merrill based on valuation. Merrill believes company has limited operating and financial leverage, with less than 30% of group EBIT generated in emerging markets

While voters are standing in line, traders are biding up equities.

raising stops. slw to 3.95

STEM - Good for a jolt today?

No worries 2nd, any pullbacks are to be bought IMO. I wouldn't mind another shot at some of the biggies at those early October prices, although we're not likely to get it.

I've raised a little cash for such an event.

It has been weeks if not months since we have seen a meaningful rise in gold at the London open. Generally during this time, we have only seen tag team play whereby London slows or stops gold's Asian advance followed by sharp NYCOMEX takedowns.

Even the USD failed to experience its usual 3:00 am phantom rise today. Too early to say the landscape has changed for good but fair weather may be on the horizon.

Traders on the other side of the fence from me are now thinking: "Bear market rally! Sell stocks!"

DavidV now has an 80% return on his credit card purchases...

Just noticed the Russell 2000, which has been the leading index for the last week or so, is underperforming today.

Could be something to keep an eye on throughout the day as continued underperformance would suggest that the rally today is not as broad as it has been over the last few days.....

RE: Cyclicality

I am wondering if I could ask Bill a question about a past topic and this does relate to the lack of activity yesterday.

I am not as clear on early cyclicals versus late cyclicals and how they relate to your comments on filter what someone says because they may be hedging with their first utterance. Do you have a list of early cyclicals contrasted/compared to late cyclicals and if so how does Cara 100 break down along those lines. Bill, you could describe this process and the health of the large moves in the US we have had lately. Thanks

[Bill Cara note:

Typically, the earliest cyclicals are the Consumer Discretionaries. Then comes Transports and the Industrials, followed by Basic Materials, and then Energy. The Precious Metals are usually last up and then down in the cycle. That's in a normal cycle. This time is different in that interest rates and speculation are typically high at the end of a business cycle and this time it's just the opposite. We have Treasury Secretary Paulson to thank for that. Rather than let the cycle roll over and self-correct in the summer of 2006 when he took the job, he instead cranked up equity and commodity prices to record highs as he crashed the $USD. He knew what he was doing. He did it to have his trust and those of his friends off their stocks (at the highest possible prices) in the Financials (and other companies they pumped up with humungous dividend increases and stock buy-backs). At the time it was going on, I was telling you that. So now the cycle is screwed up. But cycles never go away altogether because people are creatures of habit.

BTW, did you see what Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase et al had to say this morning? Did you see right through that claptrap? Jamie will only speak publicly to tell you what's in Jamie's interests. He says his company is facing hugely challenging conditions in 2009. He needs to tell you that because (i) he's an A-level director of the NY Fed Reserve Bank and he needs you to hang on every word he intends to stuff into Bernanke's mouth, (ii) he needs you to believe that your (the US taxpayer) largesse to his company to the tune of a couple hundred billion dollars was something that had to be done (NOT!), (iii) he wants you to take your capital out of "weaker" financial services companies and deposit into his AUM/AUA at JPM, which presumably is strong now that the Treasury and Fed have pumped in those hundreds of billions. I just find all this stuff sickening, and so should you. And when ex-Goldman chief Bob Rubin shows up at the Treasury office under Pres. Obama, I'll outright puke. That's the change you voted for! What bloody hypocrisy. I'll spend the day praying he'll do the right thing, but at the end of the day Obama will explain that Buffett made him do it, and think that will appease us. If he only had a clue to what the capital market is, he'd realize that independent traders no longer put their trust or beliefs in Buffett. If there was ever a yesterday's man, he's it. Buffett, Dimon, Paulson -- these people are in the game for themselves, and you need to filter out the "advice" they are giving you.]

80% short term bullish.

Solar stocks are all up right now.

Please do you own research.

We'll hit the 50 DEMA in just another 500 on the DOW

n2s- hope you're having a good day...

moving up stops.

I second the good wishes for n2s, and I hope things have started to move in the right direction for Tbar as well.

Just can't get over this Volvo report:

“In the third quarter of 2007, Volvo AB booked 41,970 European orders for new trucks. Guess how many prospective purchases Volvo, the world’s second-biggest maker of heavy rigs, received in the third quarter of this year?"

“Here’s a clue. Picture a highway gridlocked by 41,815 abandoned trucks – because Volvo’s order book got destroyed to the tune of 99.6%, with customers signing up for just 155 vehicles in the three-month period, the Gothenburg, Sweden-based company said last week."
http://tinyurl.com/6sb2um

FXP with a 78 handle - WOW!

wow... my calls on eslr days ago...
270% return...

regret selling GG's call yesterday with a lost..
bill's right... patient..

Goldman Sachs Downgrades Refiners (VLO, HOC, SU, TSO, FTO) http://tinyurl.com/6eo689

So i was about to sell SOL at $9 and try to get back in lower, but i think i will just watch for my virtual stop loss, and just ride it out for the Obama gap up (just my opinion). but by Friday my finger will be on the sell button on any sign of weakness.

Reason for SOL vs others was low cost of production, consistent aggressive growth, and they supply a lot of solar implementers with the panels needed. Reports Nov 18th.

I believe an Obama win will = decoupling of solar industry with oil prices. and oil will prob go higher anyway btwn now and next yr.

ADM - can someone look at the 1 minute chart and tell me what just happened with the spike down.
I am long ADM

Fireworks - Agree with you, but spot Au just pushing higher in N.Y today, and with the 10 yr. Treasury yield holding steady the day is shaping up weird. Happy Trading

CT's missive is a good read today. Sorry for his gold outlook....

His call: "The market is unlikely to do much until the election result is announced. The small doji and low volume on the Dow indicate uncertainty. Expect a relief rally for several days after the election, no matter which candidate wins. The relief is similar to that of a drowning man who finds a piece of timber to cling to — before the realization dawns that he is adrift in the middle of the ocean, far from the nearest land."

"Political campaigns are designedly made into emotional orgies which endeavor to distract attention from the real issues involved, and they actually paralyze what slight powers of cerebration man can normally muster."

~ James Harvey Robinson (1937)

watching SAP.. i think it's a good company... i remember it was a cara 100... why was it removed?

Bill, you noted "Buffett, Dimon, Paulson -- these people are in the game for themselves, and you need to filter out the "advice" they are giving you". If that is the case, should we ignore Buffett's call to buy stocks 2 weeks ago?

The way we've rallied 1400 points on the DOW since last Monday seems to be pointing towards a sell-the-news election result.

I'm thinking we'll have a morning gap-up tomorrow and then another sell-off will begin.

The gap-up will likely take us into the 10K-11K congestion zone where many people will be lining up to sell.

Rob.

ERJ - How about 3 qtr. off 70% on currency derivative loses & stock price up 8% - guess the bad qtr. was well disclosed. Happy Trading

Norm,
If you voted your conscience then it's never a wasted vote.

A wasted vote is if you don't vote at all or if you compromise your principles to vote for someone you don't agree with.

Rob.

Saw this on Sharky's alter ego (Rev Shark) on TSCM:

We have a frenzy of buying, as underinvested longs and overly aggressive shorts scramble to reposition. This requires some huge chases now, which doesn't mean it can't go higher, but it sure makes it tough to find prudent buy points.

Breadth is very good, with all major sectors in the green. The dollar, gold, oil and natural gas are all flying higher, which is fairly uncommon combination. Volume is heavy, and we obviously have a bit of a buying panic taking place.

From my perspective, we're entering the mark-up phase.

BNN talks to Mellon and James Grant (Grant's Interest Rate Observer. http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip108853

This is preaching to the choir, but particularly James Grant's comments are interesting. He thinks Volker may be the current front runner. Maybe just expressing his preference.

Mellon Bank is custodian to Tarp. says we will get this behind us.

Grant:
Few understand the credit markets like this man. What marks do you give the FED and King H? “E” for effort. “P” for panic. Extraordinary co-ordinated response worldwide. A lot of credit creation. “You will all take this investment won’t you.” The socialization of credit. Long term effect harmful to individual responsibility, capitalism, and free markets. It does mean that the wheels will not be coming off the wagon.

“Concern is for unpredictable, unforeseeable consequences. Certainty of inflation. Government guarantee all bank deposits skews where investment capital might go.
Policies of Goldman Sachs alumni: statism, federal intrusion, socialization of credit risk, “not the road back to prosperity." Capitalism must be independent of governmental intrusion and guarantees. Worrying indicator for future of American markets. "

Re next Sec Treasury:
"Paul Volker, the last effective US Treasury Secretary, front runner. All others tainted by their lack of foresight. Robert Rubin while at Citicorp stepped in it. None of them can be credited with "seeing ahead” Larry Summers? part of the problem. My hope would be a man who rather preferred capitalism (vs statism). Financial titans have brought it on themselves."

Two More Military Brigades for Homeland Security...

Northcom has announced that two more U.S. military units will be assigned for domestic homeland security missions, bringing the total number of combat ready service members operating inside the U.S. to around 4,700, as fears grow about the increasing militarization of law enforcement.

The announcement follows the controversy surrounding a September 8 Army Times report (revised on September 30), which revealed that the 3rd Infantry Division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team, fresh from combat duties in Iraq, would be operating inside America for tasks including “civil unrest and crowd control,” a detail that was later denied by Northcom despite the concession that forces would be armed with both non-lethal and lethal weapons as well as having access to tanks.

“In the next three years the military plans to activate and train an estimated 4,700 service members for specialized domestic operations, according to Air Force Gen. Gene Renuart, commander of U.S. Northern Command, which was created in 2002 for homeland defense missions,” reports the Colorado Independent.

Despite Northcom’s insistence that the deployments are purely related to natural disaster and mass casualty response, the original Army Times report quoted 1st BCT commander Col. Roger Cloutier as saying that the unit would be trained in the use of “nonlethal weapons designed to subdue unruly or dangerous individuals” for the purposes of “crowd and traffic control”.

http://tinyurl.com/6h5gym

Here is a story off NPR Morning Edition about peer to peer lending. I'd never heard of this before. Banks won't lend? There are sites where one can apply and secure a loan from those....often individuals....willing to lend. Share of the loan market at present is miniscule, but does this represent the future?

http://tinyurl.com/575z2u

What to do on a nice run up like this? I'm holding mostly GG SLW QUA.TO HNU.TO and TCK. They've had a very nice Pop. Is this the beginning of a run? Where might they end up at the end of the week? Particularly HNU which is tied to natural gas price. I'd hate to ride it back down where it came from. Selling discipline of this type I haven't had much experience with lately.

Tom, don't know if you're a Costco member, but there is an article in the latest edition of the Costco Connection on peer to peer lending.

WC

calculate the 10 day ATR on stockcharts and either trail a sell stop or put a sell stop at the HOD - 1.5(10 day ATR).

Check out the dollar. It hit a high of 87 on Oct 28th and then printed a lower high last night. If this current dive takes us below the Oct 30th low of 83.50 then that would be a lower low and would presumably be good for commodities and the market in general.

Rob.

Chickie,

If this is markup, what r u doing?

Peer to peer lending is an extremely risky proposition IMO, you've got to keep your positions small, and borrowers in the pool are often in an unknown financial position. Oddly enough, I think a bell curve is most applicable when selecting your debt category as those on either end of the spectrum represent a majority of default.

I prefer stocks due to the real-time environment.

i didnt expect the markets to be up this big today. Now i am a bit nervous about tomorrow's action

bsi87 - I'm ridin' the wave back up to where I bot and past, fortunately I bot some GG nearly @ bottom.

This novice hasn't drowned with hiz pockets stuffed full o' yellow metal... yet

CSCO earnings are tomorrow after the bell.

I am thinking these could be used as the proverbial punch-in-the-gut to over aggressive shorts and would keep those who have missed the rally chasing for another day.

So, perhaps the rally holds up thru tomorrow and climaxes on the Thursday morning with a gap up on CSCO earnings before heading south?

R2K still underperforming today.....

I'll take another one of those icy-cold Billy beers after close...

bsi, thanks for all you do here. I've seen you post that before, thanks for doing again. I must learn how to do that. I hope you are making money today on all those shorts.

Out of IMO at 36 and change.

WC

I'm making money on all the LONGS no one wanted to buy. I'm busy cutting positions and/or moving up stops.

WC PS

And I'm buying the short positions for next week.

Billy Beer predates my beer drinking days......

But I could sure go for a Deschutes Black Butte Porter from Oregon. I used to drink it religiously when I lived in Colorado a few years back, but distribution hasn't made it to the midwest yet.

sold UTX at 57 and change

bsi: Noted

re: beer

We drank some Grain belt beer (one of the robber barons bought and trashed it), Robin Hood ale, Red/White/Blue, and a treat was Falstaff.

I have expensive tastes. LOL

bsi - you commented:

And I'm buying the short positions for next week.

Why are you getting out of your long positions now and buying shorts for next week?

Rob

bsi,

Excuse my ignorance, but what do the acronyms ATR and HOD stand for?

ATR = average true range (measure of volatility)
HOD = high of day (i'm guessing)

Asahi Super Dry is like drinking sand, hard to describe; a very good brew. Used to hang out in Kirin gardens. Now days I just gulp the burnt stuff too, Yuengling works. Da darker da bitta! Still remember Splugen from Italy. The Brits invented Black brew, gotta give em' some business once in a while ya know...

Thanks proudPapa,

That's a good guess. I remember him actually saying that a while back.

Just about any currency held against the Yen is a good bet with the dollar going down today.

TLA = Three Letter Acronym...

thoughts on p&f charts? who here uses and how? is it more a long-term price sentament indicator?

Wondering how successful it is in your toolkit.

bsi87 - Anything's better than Bud, including Old Faithful Ale.

Chicken

Yeah, you're right. I guess if peer to peer is from individuals, it would be competition to trading the market. I hadn't thought that deeply about it. In that case, why would anyone do it? Especially unsecured loans. Dunno. But lenders must have some way to satisfy themselves on credit-worthiness. (or at least there are some traders in the market who are no more careful than some peer loaners might be)

And as long as we're speaking lending and NPR, here was another story this AM about mortgages to illegal aliens. Seems their default rate is .5 vs that of general population of 6%. Politics aside, it's hard to be too severe on persons so intent on "making it."

http://tinyurl.com/5pv9tx

(this link is to an older story, but I heard a more lengthy version this morn.....it's not online, though.)

One might not think it possible for a bank to issue a mortgage to an illegal alien....but it is. Some number that is assigned to them by the gov't, which banks have accepted in lieu to an SS#

Came in late today, & what do I see?

Another one of those
"sell the $USD & buy anything else day".
Wasn't expecting one of those, have to get better at the forex side of things.

Looking at the sectors, everything ran up to the top of their resp. bear flag channels, except XLY & IYR, which didn't make it up there.
Maybe they'll get run up last of all, otherwise those are the best sectors to short I would think.
Negative divergences in volume/accumulation in all sectors, should mean that the bear flags have a short "best before" time stamp.

USO looks to be running in shorts in a big way, target probably major fib @ 60.60, though maybe not today. It has to get past that fib & keep going to start to turn bullish.

GLD managed to fake me out, even though I thought I was prepared.
Seems to be following the original plan I laid out Friday.
If so, target 78 in a real quicky (C-wave type move), likely tomorrow after some fakeouts down today, then back down to 71, when all the bulls are on board.

SLV has to make it over 10.60 to make me really happy.

bought some GS for a short term trade at $92.50. Still holding SRS at $122 average and LVS short at $13.50 average.

"Asahi Super Dry is like drinking sand, hard to describe; a very good brew."

It's perfect with Japanese curries, which tend to be high in saturated fat. The clean finish also makes it an xlnt palate cleanser if dining at the sushi/sashimi bar...

Rob,

If you look at the LT MA (26 week EMA), it's still in a downtrend. Many issues I'm looking at are approaching the 50 DEMA from the underneath side (resistance). Their max pain opts expiration number is lower so they'll exert some pull to the downside.

Last week I was buying issues that had capitulated on the long side. RSI 7 day <10.

Today I'm looking at bearish issues at RSI 7 day of 30.

bsi - i'd highly suggest looking at LVS. i've posted here before about it, but this is a company that is extremely highly leveraged and operating in a market that is being crushed by weak consumer spending.

i wouldn't underestimate the reaction to an Obama win...they could take it well above 10000...

i agree 2nd. he is a very inspiring man and the speech he gives after he wins will be one that will hopefully inspire the nation. the ST bump will probably last until friday's employment report. longer term, i see the market bumping up against resistance at the 200 DMA, which by the time it gets there will be roughly 10,500 to 10,800 on the DJIA. longer term than that (within the next year), i see the market coming back down and breaching the lows set on 10/10.

re:LVS

I looked at it last week as a long but it was about 5 bucks and I thought the big boys wouldn't play with it.

Now the 10 day ATR is 3.44 so a day and half move could be over 5 bucks either way. Too much risk for me.

Sold my NGD and DGP for good profits. Its rare for me to sell anything at a profit anymore, so I decided to take some when there to take.

re:Obama victory

I hope the big boys gun the markets up further so I can put on shorts at better prices. Volumes are low.

Out of my resource stocks for a nice gain.

bought XTEX this morning under $10/unit. distribution coverage ratio is under 1x (.84 or so) but it's 25% under 10 day avg, yield is still 20% or so (even after distribution cut), mgt is speaking on friday to update, they have great assets in barnett shale region.

also bought some THC under $3 just now...$800m in EBITDA may not be the $1b others were seeking but the stock is now trading at just under 2x EBITDA...total value in my opinion.

As many others are doing, I'm watching/expecting the 50 DMA to be resistance on major market averages and individual stocks.

And because so many are watching those same levels of resistance, it probably wouldn't hurt to be a bit early for those getting looking to get out of long positions.

ALOHA !!

Please read this article by Darryl Robert Schoon

THE IMF AND THE US

Because the US, the world’s lender of last resort, is itself bankrupt, the world economy is in danger of collapse. The IMF has now been asked to bail out Iceland, Pakistan, Hungary and Ukraine. The US may very well be the next IMF client.

What has happened this fall has eclipsed everything that has gone before. What will happen next year will eclipse what is now happening this fall. The crisis is growing as the end-game of capitalism approaches its end irrespective of what central banks try to do.

This time the bankers overstepped themselves in such a way they have brought destruction not only on society but on themselves as well. It is only right that they should suffer too—as, after all, it is they who caused our problems.

It is unfortunate that society is being forced to lessen the burden on bankers even as bankers continue to indebt society. But, then again, that’s what government is for—to act as the bankers’ agents in the continuing indebting of nations, businesses, producers and savers.

Markets will only be free when the virus of bankers’ debt-based paper money is permanently removed from commerce and the present tyranny of banker-controlled government is ended.

tom - Hispanic families are quite capable of creating both opportunity and accomplishment. I'd even bet INS budget magnitude maintains an inverse relationship to illegal-alien mortgage default.

aside: A good friend of mine had a last name Nanny (Welsh, he claimed) and raised cabrito as a hobby.

Loonie gains 5 pennies in two days

Betcha nobody thought to bet on the CAD/USD currency cross.

Does the $ go back up if the EU cuts tomorrow? Where do equities go?

Another European-style close today?

ALOHA !!

Many here who are in credit card debt know these definitions. Which one are you? Right now the US government is not "credit worthy" even by credit card standards!

I would think that China and Japan would need to reconsider their continuing support of US DEBT!

Which country is China's #2 export country, after the USA? The USA accounts for 21% of China's exports and the number two, which is Hong Kong, accounts for 16%, then Japan, so as you can see China has adjusted exports and is moving towards an Asian based export market. What does China get back from the USA in terms of imports? The USA exports only 7.5% to China. Most of China's imports, some 60%, are form Asian and AustralAsian countries.

Once again the Keynesian adopted strategy of "spending" oneself to prosperity is flawed, yet we US Voters will elect more "spending" today!

In four hours I will ride my Honda Ruckus to the Kulani voting poll with my wife and write in my vote for RON PAUL! Guess who my wife will vote for? McCain ... HA! Not even my own wife gives a crap about my soap box rants! HA!! She believes a vote for RON PAUL is a vote for OBAMA, as so do many I talk to. But, I have my "peace of mind" to consider. I cannot vote for someone who does not earn my vote. I have high political standards and to lower those would be detrimental to my character and compromise my entire belief system. QUESTION AUTHORITY!!

READ ON:
Hedge financing units are those which can fulfill all of their contractual payment obligations by their cash flows…

Speculative finance units are units that...cannot repay the principle out of income cash flows. Such units need to “roll over” their liabilities: e.g. issue new debt to meet commitments on maturing debt.

For Ponzi units, the cash flows from operations are not sufficient to fulfill either the repayment of principle of the interest due on outstanding debts by their cash flows from operations...A unit that Ponzi finances lowers the margin of safety that it offers the holders of its debts.

The Financial Instability Hypothesis by Hyman Minsky, Working Paper No. 74, May 1992:

Only by rolling its debt forward and borrowing is the US still able to pay its debts—and its ability to do so has now worsened considerably; and the recent growth in US loan guarantees has made US repayment of its debt even more questionable

I’m about to give some more evidence that SLW’s future is bright, but after today’s drop in $USD (which I have been expecting for a week already due to the steadily improving credit conditions and increasing risk appetite), this should not be a surprise to anyone. But I’ll still share the info. :)

I listened to the SLW earnings webcast yesterday. They said that if silver price averages at $8/oz for the next 5 years, they will still pay down their debt on time using their *conservative* production estimates. If the silver price drops to $7 now and stays there, they will start having trouble with paying down their debt only in the middle of 2009. So silver can drop to $7/oz and then rebound in 6 months to $8 or above, and SLW will still be fine. Many respectable portfolio managers have noted that any deflationary sentiment will not persist for longer than a quarter or two, since the amount of liquidity that is being pumped by central banks into the global economy will most likely manifest as strong inflation in a couple of quarters. So I think SLW will be fine, and given their planned production increase of 150% by 2013, their share price might easily reach $20 if silver rises above $15 and any concerns about SLW’s debt simply disappear.

Another interesting piece of info I got from the webcast is that SLW is expecting to receive MORE silver from their partner mines if the commodity prices remain low because the mines usually mine low-grade regions when prices are high and then mine high-grade regions when prices are low. So SLW might be able to tolerate a year of silver at $7 rather than only six months, as they will have MORE silver to sell as the silver price goes down.

I wanted to buy some SLW call options, but after such uninterrupted gains in SLW, I think I’ll wait until next week to see what will happen to silver after ECB cuts its rate on Thursday.

As it is, my portfolio is making a big progress in working its way out of the gutter. Today, the first sell limit order was hit for the shares I was buying during the October panic. This time, it was a sell limit at $5.50 for the ESLR shares I purchased at $4.50. I am glad that October’s panic did not occur during my first year of trading. In that case, I would have been climbing the wall with worry and might have sold some of my holdings at the very bottom. Luckily, as I was in my third year of trading, that panic was viewed by me as a clear buying opportunity, and the only question was when to stop buying. I stopped buying when I used up about 1/3 of the margin I had during the beginning of the panic, by my portfolio fell SO MUCH that I still started getting margin calls toward the end of the panic. That’s when I took out a loan for 1/2 of my 401K and a credit card loan, which allowed me to survive the crash without selling anything and even to buy some WGW and NOT.V at the very bottom. From the current vantage point, it seems to have been the right decision.

[Bill Cara note:

You did the research, thought through the issues, developed a strategy and had the courage of your convictions. How good is that! Good luck.]

"Loonie gains 5 pennies in two days"

How about 10 cents in 7 days!

fuel costs way down, broad market way up - yet the airlines on my watch list, esp uaua, are choosing to tank. The market are a ass.

Bill:

I think you stated in the WIR you're expecting gold to be under pressure tomorrow if the EU cuts rates?

[Bill Cara note:

(4:10pm ET) Yes, I would have recommended selling gold into strength at the close, but that's only for a trade. I like gold, I think the USD had been too strong. I liked the action of the Energy and goldminers today, but low volume everywhere is still a concern. I think traders (fund managers) want to see the new Admin. before making major commitments. That's where I stand.]

just made a used Toyota in SIL:)

David- not only did you pull it off, you did it in real-time and at a point in time when no one believed in you...congrats...

shark,

Blaming one party for the mess we're in is like blaming one sex for over population.

Oil, metals, gold - I'm thinking we've seen a bottom, all moving together now.

USO - +11%
TCK - +14%
GLD - +5%

Chickie

Only USO volume is above average.

I'm not talking party politics here...I just made an enormous win in SIL...for me anyway and now it's a for-sure thing that never again shall I raise a shovel in labor...It is in the stock market that I shall seek my plunder....

AAAYYYYYYEEEEE PIRATE!

Long TLL at 88.66.

Do your own homework.

shark- i've heard that yell a few times in Vegas...congrats, and you can cover the plane tickets next year...

But David, we're in a stag-deflationary period, (whatever that is...). All that injected capital is being mopped up (with steam/smoke/mirrors/lightning/thunder, I presume). Next week the federal deficit will become complete and whole once more.

Great charts from Mr. Pascal Willain posted as an addenum in the daily report, well worth the read, thanks Bill, perhaps the need to protect some profits here.

[Bill Cara note:

No one person has all the answers. But I did surround myself with a very strong team, all of whom add their input before I make decisions in my professional work. If they want to help this community as well, that's good.]

The JPY seems to be turning up, if the $USD catches a bid also, the equity bulls may be on borrowed time already today.

Looking at the pattern, GLD should complete it's spike up to 78 today already to be true to form -tomorrow should be too late.

Also very short term (today):

SLV has to hold above 10.
SLW could dip sown as far as 4.00 and still be fine.

sold my GS and bought a couple $80 Nov puts on GS.

Congrats on the SIL sharkie, keep up the good mojo!

bought puts in SLW. Nov $5 puts.

Does anyone have an opinon on Cara 100 VIP? Just sold at a profit into strength to reduce margin. It doesn't seem as though Bill has been bullish on the telecom sector.

Bear trap?

mr bear thoughtfully examining his claws, takes a few practice swipes.

i like that call, Sundance..

... looks at the clock, sighs.

Arrive home after dealing with tenants all day to see oil up $ 6 dollars... great for me! I bought many oil companies during the crash..Thanks Bill :)

Oil up $6... strange when Obama is projected to win tonight...

Today is by far the most tradable, has the most favorable conditions I've yet encountered.

LOL, just goes to show you, there are as many trading style as there are traders - to me it was the most empty the most boring day in two months.

... trading styleS...

Latest on silver supply...

The evidence of a wholesale silver shortage continues to build. This is in addition to the current retail shortage. The continuing tightening in the price differentials between the trading months in COMEX futures has continued and become more dramatic.

One of the clearest indicators of a shortage in a physical commodity occurs when the nearby futures months trade at a premium to more deferred trading months. That means buyers are willing to pay more for a commodity because it is not immediately available. Remember, the definition of a commodity shortage revolves around delays and premiums. While the nearby months in COMEX silver futures haven’t yet grown to a premium over the more deferred months (called backwardation or an inverted market), they have moved noticeably in that direction.

A second sign was the unusual and persistent buying of the recently concluded October COMEX silver futures contract, which recorded almost 1300 contracts delivered (6.5 million ounces) for the month. The bulk of these contracts resulted in a removal of silver from COMEX silver warehouses.

Finally, the big silver ETF, SLV, reported a decline of around 4.5 million ounces over a two day period recently. It is impossible to tell whether declines in the metal holdings in the ETFs are due to investor share liquidation or if shareholders are removing metal for other purposes, such as industrial consumption. Looking at the share trading volume and price action for the period corresponding to this drop, I’m inclined to think it was due to removal, rather than liquidation. Recent reports of big inflows by air transport of silver from London to India seem to explain the declines in SLV more than investor liquidation. If I am correct, wholesale silver is a lot tighter than most assume.

http://tinyurl.com/p8oz

Bill, 2nd_ave: thank you for the cheers! The things I learned from both of you have helped me, to a large degree, to get through the October panic in one piece.

GLD looks to be making it's move.
These C-wave spikes are notoriously unpredictable.
78:ish would be the standard target for a measured move.

Posted by Chikenpookie: "But David, we're in a stag-deflationary period, (whatever that is...)."

I believe this stag-deflationary period will be over in 3-6 months, and then inflationary fears will come back.

All I need, actually, is to have the commodity stocks not to plunge much farther than the October lows, and given the "unreasonable" prices we saw for WGW, SLW, SWC, ESLR, I have much more conviction in this than in the timing of when inflation will finally manifest itself. As such, I am planning to keep trading the volatile commodity stocks, and the longer they oscillate around the current still low levels, the more money I'll make by trading them -- buying low in my sleep and selling high in my sleep. :))

I would have more faith in this rally if bond yields were rising instead of falling.

The t-bill is the only yield up right now and it's only up by .07.

It's almost as if the small money is fueling this rally.

Rob.

If you think today is boring check out SIL and ABK.

The bond action is in the 5-30 year yields and not sure what is moving it today - doesn't seem to be the usual safe haven movement.

If GLD does hit 78 in the close today, a few puts would be in order.

If not, I'd wait 'till tomorrow, it might do a pop&drop in the open. That would also complete the pattern.

Or gold might just do that (complete the pattern) in the Asian session, and GLD never make it up there.

Maybe the bond market is telling us the big money is selling into strength. 22% gain for the S&P in that short a time-frame is a huge run.

Rob.

raising stops yri, gnlb, ek and slw.

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose, led by 10-year notes, as investors in mortgage-backed debt purchased the securities to help protect their portfolios against declining interest rates

Breadth is not great today. R2K is up only 1.5% vs 4% on the SP-500. Up is still good however, and sure beats the events of two weeks ago!

pappdjavul, thanks for offering your analysis. I'm also watching GLD with interest.

David - Sleep tight! Don't let the bed-bugs bite.

Trimmed my long position back to 75% today.

Its a goat fest:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article5082040.ece

I'm still thinking we gap up tomorrow no matter who wins.

I just wonder if it will last all day and into Thursday. If the ECB cuts rates that would strengthen the dollar and send everything down again.

And how about the jobs report Friday? In the past few days the market has rallied in the face of bad news.

I'm still looking at puts on SSO, QLD, and DDM.

Currently I'm about 80% long and 20% cash. I'm down only about 10% in the retirement accounts and even in the trading account.

It would be great if we gap up to 11K. It would make the shorts that much safer but anywhere between 10K and 11K will provide a good hedge for my longs. If we somehow make it to 12K I'll probably just go to cash with a 10% short position.

Rob.

Hey,
Maybe we're scaring the big dogs away finally!!

http://tinyurl.com/5sglm7

"JPMorgan Chase & Co. is closing down a 75-person group that traded the bank's own money in everything from stocks to commodities"

Rob.

TSX COMP.........UP 395 POINTS..

Good day for Canada..:)

To all the Americans in this community...good luck in choosing your new PRESIDENT.

Bill,

that addendum report by Pascal was great. Taught me a lot and also confirmed what i have been seeing with the solar sector. to sell on any sign of weakness.

Best of luck tomorrow to the crew!

I'll be watching Asia, Europe, FXE, FXY overnight.

Dave,

I started paying special attention to GLD & SLV when I started seeing a bullish case for silver, but not (yet) for gold, which I found odd.
Also it's just good practice trying to call these short term moves.
I have no position in either other than a few options on occasion, as I believe "physical" is the only way to go.

All sectors still chopping upwards within their bear flag channels, no breakouts neither up nor down.

Everything today "could" reverse completely tomorrow, and if these really are bear flags it's about time.
Also the JPY looks set to pop = more deleveraging & forced selling.
But best wait & see, don't feed the sharks.

SLW has a free run to 5 if it gets over 4.50 tomorrow.
Above 5 going gets tougher, target major fib @ 7.

RE: 3x ETFs

Coming Wednesday: Triple-levered ETFs from Direxion.

Just checked EBAY for last minute bids on my vote....nothing new......guess I'll head on down to the polls.

WGW Q3 earnings 21-22 cents and 12 mm share buyback. Only about 8 cents of the earnings were from ops, rest were from mark to market. Pretty darned good for a 91 cent stock, though. Cash costs looked good, too

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/081104/to325.html?.v=39

RE: Don Coxe & Commodities

I picked up some of the Coxe Strategy Fund today. Major commodity play.

(TSX: COX.UN)

WGW up another 29% after hours...

Direxion 3x ETFs:

- Small Cap
- Large Cap
- Energy
- Financial

All come in Bull and Bear flavours.
Another 28 funds are still in the queue.

http://tinyurl.com/6ytgye

11 Stocks Selling Below Cash:
http://tinyurl.com/5h5ycr

Includes a link to a spreadsheet of 60 such stocks at WallStreetNewsNetwork.com.

Whoops!

Those companies are trading for less than their cash but *not* less than their NET CASH.

It is probably more interesting to look at companies trading under their Net Current Asset Value:

http://tinyurl.com/5faddb

Losses rip through top 100 hedge funds...

More than three-quarters of the world’s largest hedge fund managers have lost money for their investors in the first nine months of the year as crisis deepens in the industry.

None of the world’s five largest managers’ flagships funds has made money for the year to September, according to details supplied by investors. Of the 79 of the world’s 100 largest hedge fund managers where Financial News has been able to obtain details, 61 of them, or 77%, have flagship funds that have lost money for that period.

The flagship fund run by Highbridge Capital, the world’s largest hedge fund manager at the start of the year with assets of almost $45bn, and which is owned by JP Morgan, was down 13.9% for the year to September. The pure alpha strategy fund run by the second largest manager, Bridgewater Associates, which started the year with $36bn, was down 1.78% over the same period.

Farallon Capital Offshore was off 16%, Renaissance Institutional Equity has fallen 24% and Och-Ziff overseas was down 5.8%.

The hedge fund industry has seen its assets fall from a peak of $1.9 trillion at the start of this year to $1.72 trillion at the end of September, according to data provider Hedge Fund Research, through a combination of investment losses and redemptions from investors.

http://tinyurl.com/5frgpb

Solar stocks have run up nicely. I just dont see how they can have positive growth with oil/gas prices down and financing/credit becoming hard & general deterioration in the economy. On my watch list to go short once I see the markets topping.

vinod- you were right about MA being a blue state...

I tried selling some of my WGW after hours, placing a sell limit order at $1.20 and moving it down to $1.05, but no one bought my shares even at $1.05. So I moved the sell limit order to $1.10 and left it there for a couple of hours. This order was executed a little while ago, for the 2000 shares I bought last week at $0.51, for a nice 115% return in one week.

My next sell limit order is at $1.25 for the shares I purchased in early October at $1.05, so I won't be too upset if WGW gaps up tomorrow and zoomes much higher than $1.10 and hitting a few more of my sell limit orders. :)

2nd:

MA hasn't voted for a democrat for Pres as long as I can remember. Maybe Eisenhower. Anyway, we don't call it The People's Republic of Massachusetts for nothin'. And, we have the original PRC in Cambridge...

Make that "hasn't voted for a" republican..

[Bill Cara note:

Did you see this? Pathetic. At least the guy pleaded guilty and saved the taxpayer the cost of a lengthy trial.

http://www.wealth-bulletin.com/home/content/3352369553/ ]

Shiva -- not all solar stocks are created equal, so make sure you short only those that are overvalued. Also, don't forget to compare their current price level to that of one year ago, where oil was about where it is now BUT there was no such clear government support for the solar sector as exists now.

America has come a long way! Eventhough i dont love either candidate, and i complain about how capital markets are run on this community, etc, i am very proud to be a citizen in a country where Democracy is still the backbone. Even if the backbone has layers of so much fat on it, with a lot of sweat equity required moving fwd. It is energizing to know we may have record voter turnout today.

And from the untimely death of Martin Luther King Jr just 40 yrs ago to an African American running and having momentum to lead America, is pretty astonishing.

Whoever wins, they have a tall task, almost mission impossible, but i will hope for the best.

What we might witness tonight may be one of those once in a century type event, where we will go down in history books as either the perfect time for America to change its course for the better or for worse.

nemo- you had me worried there for a second...haven't been to Boston since the early eighties- once taking the highway "from Stockbridge to Boston," and then flying into Logan in '81 to patch things up with a girlfriend after a fight...no way would i characterize the state as a republican stronghold...

Sorry 2nd: Did you visit James on the Vineyard? Geez, you went a long way for trouble...

nemo- i was living in Ann Arbor, MI at the time...Sweet Baby James, After the Goldrush (Neil Young), and Elton John's 1970 album-> those three album covers define my coming-of-age period...

Saw CSNY backed up by Jesse Colin Young in '74 at the late Largo Civic Center in MD. They played until 1:30 AM. Funny, I had a girlfriend from Ann Arbor, you had one from Boston.

Look at stock that gain most today
Gold/solar/energy/metal
I do not think this type of sector will lead next bull market?
Fasten the seat

Belt and enjoy the rally, still more upside to come-- next few days

Harvest was my introduction to Neil Young and it was a wake up call for me. Not that I necessarily woke up, but it left an impact on me.

Yes, one of my first albums was harvest. !

I want to live, I want to give I've been a miner for a heart of gold. It's these
expressions I never give That keep me searching for a heart of gold

nemo- she was actually from Michigan, but after our fight she flew to Boston to listen to a friend perform at the NE Conservatory- I barely made it past the locked doors when exiting students let me in, and found the performing hall in the lower level (there were so many of them) just in time...

Mike- I still listen to Neil, but from an adult perspective I have to admit I'm disappointed in the way he abandoned his first son...

2nd, I just told my neighbor if obama wins alabama or mississipi I will go streak down oak grove ave

vanillabean- you must have been in the seventh grade when that came out...

still think among Neil's best is Helpless:

There is a town in North Ontario,
With dream comfort memory to spare,
And in my mind I still need a place to go,
All my changes were there.

Blue, blue windows behind the stars,
Yellow moon on the rise,
Big birds flying across the sky,
Throwing shadows on our eyes.
Leave us

Helpless, helpless, helpless
Baby can you hear me now?
The chains are locked and tied across the door,
Baby, sing with me somehow.

Blue, blue windows behind the stars,
Yellow moon on the rise,
Big birds flying across the sky,
Throwing shadows on our eyes.
Leave us

Helpless, helpless, helpless.

vanillabean- no one in Menlo Park will look twice...

2nd,

You mean Ben? I didn't realize he had abandoned him. I admit I haven't kept up with the news on NY.

In related news, anyone read today's WSJ Personal section? David Crosby said Joni Mitchell was the greatest songwriter of the "era". Not quite clear what era he's talking about, late 60s to ?

come on 2nd, get in the spirit!

How about prop 8?

Mike- his first son, Zeke, was with actress Carrie Snodgress...remember 'A Man Needs A Maid?' from Harvest-> "I fell in love with the actress/she was playing a part that I could understand." Listening to Carrie talk about Zeke's devotion to his Dad while simultaneously describing Neil's refusal to acknowledge him- well, that can break your heart...

Joni Mitchell WAS the greatest songwriter of the late 60s/early 70s, IMO...

http://tinyurl.com/24v3ok

Asia is up

vb- it is absolutely impossible to discuss Prop 8 without asking for trouble...out of fairness to Bill, I'll have to refer that debate to another blog...

2nd,

thanks for the history lesson.

http://tinyurl.com/5sd8xd

"Solar cells and panels manufacturer SunPower Corp. said the strengthening dollar is expected to hurt its earnings growth in the fourth quarter and fiscal 2009."

I am hoping the opposite for SOL which is a Chinese based company.

SunPower still maintained its profit guidance, excluding currency effects. but I will be cautious in the pre-market.

Reference a prior posting, can't help but think of those two afterhour 100,000 share trades on EWY (Korea ETF) late last week. If it was the same source, whether institutional or individual, they are up more than a cool $1 mil in 3-4 days. Not shabby. Guess you could say it was a "tell."

Neil Young--yes, brings back memories. What was another one of those songs?--4 strong winds?

Seamus,

that was Ian Tyson, another Canadian classic song writer. "In 2005, CBC Radio One listeners chose his song "Four Strong Winds" as the greatest Canadian song of all time" from Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Tyson

mike - not sure that joni mitchell was the greatest song writer, but she had one of the best voices ever...

Thanks Mke. Learn something new everyday!

You guys are quite a resource for music memories and history.

BTW CBC Newsworld is doing a great job of covering the US election

You're welcome Seamus.

I can't contribute much about stock trading so I help out when I can. :)

I got a rush the other night surfing YouTube. I found lots of April Wine, Trooper, Triumph clips.

Obama just won California's 55 elctoral votes...I think that clinches it...

America just sends a message to world
This is just a great country

It certainly is vinod.

Very poignant concession speech by Sen Mccain

wow. great speech by mccain.

This thing came off without any real fireworks, ala the swiftboat crew, because the Republicans felt, wisely, that in the words of Nixon, now was the time to "punt".

That said, congratulations Obama! I pray for a bright future for this country and for this world. I hope he can make this land better for the common man. I've been one most of my life:)

Yes, Obama's speech struck just the right tone.

It wasn't about HIM. And it wasn't about beating his chest or stirring up the crowd. No chanting of "USA" or "We're number 1". Rath

A hopeful yet somber tone reflecting his concern at the problems before the country, and the heavy burden he will assume.

I liked particularly how he spoke to those who had NOT voted for him. That he hears their voices, and will work to win their support.

Whenever the Clintons (both) spoke, I always had the feeling of being somewhat "slimed" - even when I agreed with them. From Obama, I get a sense of sincerity.

I also am grateful to Cheney for NOT engaging in any extreme tactics to sway the election.

Let's hope this will turn a new page for the US.

Congratulations to you Mr. Obama. You have within your power the ability to advocate profound change in our world... change for the better. Humanity supports you. Make us proud.

For my part, I will sleep easier tonight knowing this die has been cast.

Buy the rumor, sell the news: too many people were expecting the market to gap up on Obama's victory, so now S&P500 futures are down 1.5%.

Joni Mitchell?? She was a helluva' drinker. Had to help her up the stage stairs when they used to do Concerts on the Common in Boston.

Regarding the elections:

Well, now that we've gotten through Sales & Marketing, seeing operations should be interesting. Interesting article about Bush posted on Drudge from the WSJ. What's more interesting is the background of the guy who wrote it.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122584386627599251.html

I guess we can expect the "Fairness Doctrine" to come back. That should get conservative ideology out of the media. There will finally be control of how people can think.

Mmmmhhhh...not to promote Prieur, but he has a summary of Obama's plan...

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/11/05/the-challenges-facing-obama/

The dollar should start to drop as the Republicans offshore their ill-gotten gains before the trials begin.

aucorant:

To think that ill-gotten gains are limited to republicans must mean democrats don't possess human nature. If you define "ill-gotten" as "unfair" you will have no problem finding them even in the "Blue" states.

Exit Strategy...

http://tinyurl.com/6e87ck

i wouldn't be so quick to sell the news...the early morning reaction may well reverse itself by the open...

Nemo,

I'm sure there are plenty of Dems as well, who profited from this Republican administration looking the other way. It's hard for me to be fair-minded toward the baby-eating party at this point, a la Jim Lehrer, given that they have destroyed the economy, corrupted the government, and potentially destroyed the planet (we may be past the point of no return with global warming already--methane is already becoming unlocked from the ocean depths). But I'm sure there's enough blame for everyone out there. Anyway, I only wanted to point out one reason why the dollar might go down and not really to make a political statement (well, that's half true!).

nemo

thanks for reference... I see Nouriel Roubini believes yesterday was a "bear market sucker's rally." We'll see. I'm still trolling.

McCain was magnif in defeat. Great, great speech.

tango6:

With Bill's words echoing in my head about economists and trading floors, given that Roubini himself has said he's never traded stocks, I'm not sure how much stock (pun:)) I'd put in his foresight regarding market moves (in the short-run anyway).

true that

As the man said, it's a time for humility.

I want to say that John McCain made a great speech last night. My wife and I looked at each other and asked simultaneously, 'Where was THIS John McCain during the campaign?'.

The man was seriously undercut and poorly served by his campaign staff running that tasteless negative POS with a rediculous VP choice. If he had chosen a qualified moderate Rep. or Dem. and run as the guy that made that speech last night and spoke that way to the people about the economy he might have been President.
We were never allowed to see the real McCain.

He illustrated his patriotism and love of his country with class in defeat.

tango6

former military?

I've been using Yahoo Finance to get pre-market and real-time live stock quotes.

http://finance.yahoo.com/

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SPY

But these 2 days, the quotes have been 1-2 hrs BEHIND time.

Does anyone know another free stock-quote site?

Thanks.

vorlon... well, bloomberg is current within 15 mins or so

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

Nemo, no sir. my only battle experience with live ammo was marriage

Tango6

There's a reason they say, "All's fair in love an war."

shiva,

Vera Sun, second biggest ethanol supplier went belly up. Just one more similarity to the 1970s regarding alternative energy. Oil will reign supreme once again.

Could be tough on Suncor and others with supplies which are costlier to produce.

RE: McCain 2008 vs. 2000 version

Craig makes a good point when asking the question, "where was THIS John McCain during the campaign ?"

Back in the 2000 Republican presidential primary, I supported McCain over Bush II. McCain was more to the center back then, which is where I suppose many Americans congregate = socially moderate and fiscally conservative.

The 2008 version of McCain was different than 8 years prior. The conservative faction insisted that he move closer to the right, as evidenced by his selection of Gov. Palin as his running mate.

That was to me the best indication that the Republicans were mailing in the election. The better choice for VP in my mind was the business minded (and business experienced) Mitt Romney.

It may be that the Republicans didn't want to tarnish Romney's image with a loss in this election when the momentum was so much against them.

Added to the fact that they're handing off the oval office with the economy heading for further weakness, they decided to let the Democrats have the next 4 years and deal with the mess.

NYUgrad,

Yes. This was a big step.

The huge voter turnout of minorities was impressive when you consider they mostly voted for a man who is half white. (Just kidding.)

I am so sick and tired of race being in the forefront — what matters is what a person does, or does not do. For that we will have to wait and see.

Perhaps there are a few prejudiced diehards who would turn down first aid from someone of a different race, but we don't need those people, so good riddance.

Thanks to all who wished me well as the solars continued their recovery yesterday. Indeed, I've been doing better. But I could have been doing much better if I had practiced better risk management in September and early October.

This was a lesson I will never need to relearn.

I wish others who were also pressed hard by the collapse of the equity markets last month are also recovering. I think of tbar and QT in particular.

As for the election, I am thrilled with Obama's victory. I am the same age as Obama and I grew up in a south suburb of Chicago. I am just old enough to remember the turmoil of the late 60's. I remember the day after MLK was assasinated when my African American classmates didn't come to school.

I didn't hear it mentioned on any of the networks last night, but one of the glorious ironies of last night was that Obama gave his acceptance speech in Grant Park, which was the scene of the fiercest rioting during the 1968 Democratic convention. In the place where 40 years ago Richard Daley Sr's police clubbed young Americans and, symbolically at least, put the ideals of that generation into a deep freeze, last night a new generation of young Americans cheered the turning of a new page in American history.

What a great moment for the city of Chicago and America.

John McCain gave one of the finest and noblest concession speeches I've ever heard. He made me very proud to be an American last night.

I don't think so.
Ethanol is a net negative, costing more than it can possibly save or produce.

We are currently producing wind power in the 3-5 cents a KWH which is competitive with nat gas, coal and even hydro (after the BPA screws with the price).

Solar may not be up there yet but it isn't far away since the panels last quite a long time, produce for their lifetime, and make a home owner an energy producer. It is worth providing tax incentives to go solar as it decentralizes both our power supply (no power grid requirements)and it decentralizes away from giant commercial generation and attendant costs.
Solar puts power and finance in the hands of the citizenry. Also, there is no big breakthrough required for solar hot water heaters, we have had that technology for decades.

vorlon,

Even though Yahoo Finance shows most quotes as real time on my screen, I have noticed big discrepancies lately.

I've been going to bigcharts.com

Craig - Last night was the McCain I'm accustomed to watching. Judging by the way republicans have acted over Bush's term, this campaign portrayed a consistent mindset which just hasn't set well with me over the period. I felt there were more lies behind the curtain because no admissions were ever spoken of or acknowledged. At least not to my satisfaction.

Anyone have an idea of what Obama is speaking of when he trumpets biofuels?

I try like hell to be totally fair. I know how it feels to lose elections and longtime stallwarts like Warren Magnesson (1980 Reagan revolution). I call them exactly as I seem them.
I know how this feels for the losers.
Been there, done that.

Just know, I never voted for Reagan, there was stuff he did I could have killed him in his sleep over, and stuff he did that was pretty awesome.
Everyone survived it and everyone will survive this too. So, if you didn't vote for Obama, there will be stuff you want to kill him in his sleep over, and there will be awesome stuff he does.

Welcome to America.

Craig, ToddinFL,

I would have voted for McCain last time without reservations, but this time (even before picking Sarah) I could see he was listening too much to his advisors. This was NOT the man who defied his torturers. The silly, pasted on grin and stilted speech was topped by the late game spoofing of himself as an old duffer. If I lived in Arizonia I'd want a replacement — soon!

We need someone who can think for himself in the Oval Office. Eight years of a "front man" in the "decider's" seat should make that clear. Initially, the only thing which allowed me to hold my nose and vote for W was the experience of those backing him — Cheney and Rumsfeld. Wow! Was I in dreamland or what?

The last time I voted FOR a Presidential candidate was Ross Perot. This has been the case in only two other elections —

1. Barry Goldwater (It was said, "Vote for Goldwater and we'll have 500,000 troops in Viet Nam. I voted for him and sure enough —500,000 went to Nam.)

2. John B. Anderson, whose $o.50 per gallon gas tax applied to alternative energy may have mad a lot of difference.

My consolation in this election: For the first time in eight years I am absolved of responsibility for any stupid moves by the administration— AND I am free to enjoy any which are brilliant even if unable to take any credit :-)

Grym, you're in the boat I have been in for eight years. All I could do was shake my head and wait....and look for little opportunities to be positive, like if George got through a speech without stumbling. I can relate.

Hopefully it won't be as bad for you. At least this guy can communicate, that's a noteable improvement.

Craig,
"Hopefully it won't be as bad for you. At least this guy can communicate, that's a noteable improvement."

Thanks. No doubt Obama can speak, but even I could look good following Bush. (Either of them.)

I sincerely hope Obama makes changes for the better. How much was political baloney most candidates are so good at and how much he is willing to fight to accomplish will tell the story.

I just saw McCain's concession speech. It was a truly great and obviously heartfelt speech. But it makes me sick he didn't campaign in real, meaningful and sincere sounding complete thoughts like that.

I don't think anyone who is a couple of years older than I am should run. I cut a fair sized tree down yesterday and feel it today for sure. Being President would be like 4 to 8 years of those days back to back.

Maybe if he had shown more wisdom (like ignoring his advisors) I could have felt good about voting for him.

I just don't believe Obama is anything but a consumate politician — I hope I'm wrong

Dr. Cosa: There is an almost perfect negative correlation between the moves in gold and in $USD. So instead of trying to guess the secret forces behind moves in gold, why not look at the more obvious forces behind moves in $USD? This is what Bill has been trying to tell us for several months now in his Week in Review: “You cannot trade commodities that are priced in $USD without studying forex movement. The Forex market is a multi-trillion dollar marketplace every day, which dwarfs the size of the stock and bond markets.”

The move in $USD during the October crisis made perfect sense -- $USD and Yen are “debt” currencies as people were borrowing in these currencies to finance purchases of stocks all over the world. Once the risk has increased significantly in the marketplace, hedge funds started deleveraging by selling their assets and returning their debt denominated in $USD and Yen – hence the spike up in both currencies. In the next month or two, as the world markets stage a rebound rally, the exact opposite of the previous move should happen – people will be selling $USD and Yen to buy indervalued currencies and stocks. Hence, gold should move up in the next month or two. As Bill said, investors will check back on the global economy in Jan/Feb, and if they see that the recent liquidity injections have not helped the economy, then stocks will collapse to new lows. I think gold will collapse in that case as well, since the deflationary mood will be in the air. However, after the world economy starts rebounding in a year or two, the impact of the liquidity injections will have to manifest itself, and gold WILL move to new highs, regardless of whether the deflationary mood will or will not be present for the duration of 2009.

Any comments on the above $USD/gold dynamics are very welcome.

As for the short-term trading, as tempting as it was to buy something right before the close today, I decided against it since I already have too many long positions as it is. A slightly safer alternative is to place buy stop limit orders for tomorrow, which I just did for ESLR with stop at $4.49 and limit at $4.59, to replace the shares I sold yesterday at $5.50. If ESLR gaps up tomorrow above my limit price and continues to move higher, I won't be too upset, as I still hold many ESLR shares.

The sale of WGW yesterday after hours at $1.10 seems to have been a good decision, as WGW has not even reached $1.10 today. I still have many WGW shares, which I will be selling is it moves up toward $2. If WGW drops to $0.65, I'll buy again.

For those who have cash on hand, however, today's profit-taking is a great buying opportunity. As 2nd_ave said, the plunge to new lows MAY start once everyone is onboard for this rally. Since most investors have not been onboard so far, today's selloff is a chance for them to jump in, which they will most likely do. So I don't think that this is the start of a plunge to new lows and instead is a great buying opportunity.