Good morning

October lived up to its reputation as being a torrid month, but the last week of the month witnessed a strong rebound in global stock markets as investors brushed aside discouraging economic reports and took heart from central banks cutting key lending rates and positive developments in the credit markets. This resulted in investors scooping up beaten-down stocks around the globe, and particularly emerging-market stocks, government bonds and currencies, mending some of the damage done earlier in October.

I give the current rally the benefit of the doubt provided the recent lows (8,176 on the Dow Jones Industrial Index and 849 on the S&P 500 Index) do not get taken out. However, it remains difficult to say whether a secular low has been reached in an environment of economic and profit recession. At least, the extent to which central banks, governments and the IMF are becoming involved to fend off a total economic meltdown is a sign that we could be in a bottoming-out phase of the bear market.

Read all about this in my weekly “Words from the Wise” review: http://tinyurl.com/6h2xaq

That’s the way it looks from Cape Town. How do you see the outlook?

[Bill Cara note:

If you care to read my WIR, you will see what I think Prieur. What I think of your contribution here is classic waffle. Why don't you actually contribute something?

The contributions here this weekend by actual participants in the Discourse was excellent. I don't think Prieur has been reading them.]

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

CCL - Upgraded to Hold @ Deutsche Securities

Yeah, it might be time to give Prieur the bum's rush...

[Bill Cara note:

I was writing about this to appease the community members here who have been writing me to ask why do I permit another blogger to fish for hits. Until recently, I figured there was a positive contribution, but now it appears he merely writes to publish rather than add value. Moreover it appears he has somebody else directed to plug his words into the top of the Discourse so they won't go unseen. I can't believe he's sitting by his computer ready to add value here. Anyway, there are so many positive contributions here that we do not need that other stuff.

I just received this mail from an associate:

Bill, fyi...
I noticed that you mentioned these guys in your blog a few weeks ago...one of my faves...and truly one of the jewels in the cdn landscape...apart from their exceptional metrics, they have no external debt; net impaired loans and write offs are negligible; and they just increased the dividend - again.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/CNW.20081103.C3873/GIStory/

I do hope you investigate Home Capital (TSX:HCG) because it continues to prove its one of the really well managed financial services companies around.]

Spot wrote at the tail end of the earlier discourse :

"Perhaps, the future can bring about an adjustment away from that "guns" totality without bringing on the opposite extreme of total socialism. A nice moderation between the extremes is possible until it isn't."

This was in response to a highly inflammatory piece of writing ingenuously posed by Seadog.

I applaud Spot for his measured and illuminating response.

My own viewpoint is that the USA is in drastic need of State planning rather than its present misbegotten financial engineering. Only the State can build the new airports, renew the exisiting infrastructure, implement non military industrial policy.

For those opposed to social welfare, it was the Soviets who had anti parasite criminal legislation : citizens had to have meaningful employment to benefit from subsized rents, healthcare, etc. Here I speak from my DDR experience(s).

Chuck Smith in his always perceptive blog actually nails this question today, in considering the case of Joe The Plumber :

http://oftwominds.com/blog.html

A non funded entitlement is welfare by another name.

[Bill Cara note:

I am not a socialist, but I believe in the fundamental right to life, and right to a life worth living, and to that extent I believe that universal health insurance is required. It is an egregious aspect of American politics (ie, enterprise-sponsored government) that bankrupts a young family just because they give birth to a critically ill child. Gov. Sarah Palin smugly announces her birthing such a child because of her belief in the right to life, without admitting the other side of the argument which is that she had the money and the govt healthcare plan that paid for it. Tens of millions of Americans should be so lucky. There are cases, I believe, where govt has to be our brother and sister's keeper. There are no options. I believe it is so fundamental to social equity that I will fight for it to my grave. And, no, I am not a socialist; I am, as a fiscal conservative, to the right of Gov. Palin.]

I usually enjoy Prier's contributions, but it's not like we haven't been debating this point for several painful weeks now.

Has the market spoken on this issue? I think so. My SBUX is up a lot since the low $9's, my BA is up nicely, XOM is sweet, GE is up from the low I bought....did great on SLW....do I need "words from the wise"? I thought I was reading that *here* weeks ago.....

Tell us some words of wisdom we don't know, otherwise we're back to information we all have, which has ZERO value.

craig- i agree...words of the wise, perhaps->we all filter and process information differently, and there are an infinite number of ways to profit from it...

it helps to read what's out there, but when it comes to each of us making money for our own portfolios, it comes down to listening within...

yeah i was thinking about the whole linking to other blog concept,

ive neglected mine for a while, but it is an easy way to link people to charts and to add comments beyond the stockcharts "comment box" function, and for those of us who cant access link sites like "tiny-pic" through firewalls at work.

i think there must be a way to add value with one's posts while still occasionally linking to one's blog without plugging it for commercial value.

i always check Ron's posts on the weekend, its a good compliment to this site.

i would hate to see a "no blog" ban across the board, hopefully Bill it will remain on a case by case basis.

[Bill Cara note:

I'm not even going to ban Prieur. It's up to the community to decide what you want to read and how you are going to act. Soon, I will link the Blog Rules at the top, and when people here think there is a violation, just quote the item and the rule so that others can see. If, after that, I receive so much mail I am required to act, then I'll take that action in what I think are in the best interests of people here. Hopefully that will not be often.]

dr.cosa- it's like any community...we all find people we can relate to and head off for corner conversations, which is what a blog link really is...

From the Bear's POV:

"I believe the credit crisis is probably in the eighth inning. The economic crisis is still taking batting practice."

Bill Fleckenstein's latest:

http://tinyurl.com/5fk9qz

BH- i like Fleck, and i like his eighties haircut, but i've had mixed results listening to him...if "the economic crisis is still taking batting practice," it may be years before his vision comes to fruition...his "road map" is useful, just as I've used Rob McEwen's Denver Forum speech as a road map to gold prices; on a trading basis, however, from start to finish it can be a tortuous (for some, a treacherous) path...

I'm hearing calls coming from a multitude of sources calling for a possible re-test of lows. In these calls, rarely is there a fundamental explanation as to why. Sure we're liable to experience sporadic pullbacks, but the only fundamental for a huge drawdown that I might envision would be housing market related. Massive ARM resets are scheduled for Feb time frame, but by then I would expect other factors to mitigate the event.

re "listening within:" the month of October really gave me a chance to hone this skill...you read what's out there, you try to emotionally experience what's out there and simultaneously try to detach yourself, you look back on your own experiences, and you really have to do more than pay lip service to listening to yourself-> once you've absorbed it all, try tuning everything out and listen...the inner voice can be quite clear, and provide invaluable guidance...

Chickie

It's what u don't see that kills u.

Hi Bill, Love your commentaries. Really insightful.

Re the WIR comments: "PBR and SU are now, one week later, much higher. PBR gained +$5.84 (+27.7%) to 26.89 and SU gained +$3.77 (+19.7%) to 23.92. There is a long way to go before running into resistance of the (plunging) 50-day and 200-day Moving Average lines. I added “plunging” because it won’t take long, which means that active traders need to have a trigger finger."

I am confused as to the exact point you are making. For the moving averages to plunge means price destruction but yet you are expecting the price to rise to meet resistance at the average? Am I to assume a whipsaw price action in oil, hence the trigger finger? Sorry I am a bit thick on this terminology.

Also:
"never before had all the DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ jumped together over +10% in a single week. Never. Having said all that; keep your eye on the falling MA lines and the VIX and VXN. There will be resistance and probably a re-test of lows. Volatility, while falling, has not disappeared. Bank traders are still willing to take your money."
Is this to mean a updrift in broad market prices to meet resistance at the moving average and then another collapse? How soon the collapse and by what mechanism?

Once again, trying to wrap my head around this market. I am lost without your comments and even in spite of them sometimes. Always look forward to your insight.

[Bill Cara note:

A Moving Average is by definition a calculation that lags. As prices fall quickly (ie, plunge), the current price is well below the MA. In fact, prices fell so quickly during October (22 trading days) that the gap between the current price to the MA for many stocks was of all-time record proportions. Now, there are many technical traders who trade off the MA lines and the Departure (or Gap) Analysis [eg, MACD] and when they see a turn in the current price direction, which starts to close the gap, they wait to see if there is an upside cross-over, eg the 50-day MA rises above the 200-day MA (or if you are a short term swing trader, the 5-day and 13-day MA cross-over) (or if you are a day-trader, the 5-minute and 15-minute MA cross-over). Depending on your time horizon, if you are a technically-oriented trader, you are conscious of the narrowing gap. The faster the price has fallen, the faster it usually snaps back, which means that there could be a potential cross-over or fall-back when the current price hits those falling MA lines. Traders, then, have to be particularly aware of those times in the market, which means they need an itchy "trigger finger".

Hope that helps.

On the other matter, I needed to better explain what I mean by a re-test of the lows. A re-test doesn't mean to go back to the earlier lows. Not at all, although it is a possibility. But after a rally following a plunge, there will be some profit-taking and that process will set up the need to test the market's confidence that a new bull cycle has started. The definition of a Bull phase is that there are higher highs and higher lows. Just by hitting a higher low before continuing the rally means there was a successful test of the previous low. The market is constantly seeking to determine the confidence of the Bulls vs the Bears. This process is what I call the dance.]

I think it's downright criminal to so freely give welfare to giant corporations at the behest of lobbyists and hacks while the government of by and for the people does anything BUT act for the people. ESG indeed.

The silly part is knowing there are well meaning individuals here and elsewhere that see the little bit we spend on welfare and aid to people so clearly, but miss the billions going to enterprise, empire and outright theft.

Welfare for people is a needle in that corporate welfare haystack.

If we had any intellectual honesty then our "private" insurance would also be viewed as socialism as it is the same concept as our government. Insurance pools enable individuals to get protection they can't get individually. Government is a pool to provide protections we can't get individually.

The problem is people that want, on various levels, to remove themselves from society and the responsibility of living in an organized society. More accurately, they want to remove responsibility to pay until they need help....

All men think they are islands until their time comes.

2nd,

I read Fleck's weekly review on MSN. IMHO, he's a permabear, which, despite my handle, I am not.

I think it's important to read intelligent commentary from both sides.

Reading Fleck et al. made me a lot of money in QID and SKF, but the market is biased to the upside over the long haul. Some of these guys don't seem to understand that.

Regards

Caraistas: You never know where wisdom comes from, but when you see it take note....

Here is wisdom:
"it helps to read what's out there, but when it comes to each of us making money for our own portfolios, it comes down to listening within..."

kaimu - Your absolutely correct, one of Ron Paul's agenda calls for seperation of the church of ESG and state, and this is enough reason in itself for my write-in, but I'll take his other medicinal proposals with a welcome gulp as well. Please, anything if it'll permanently free us from the grasp of special interests and dishonest money monks.

chicken - i think the coming jobs reports will provide fuel to the bear thesis that at the very least a retest is in the works. given how tenuous a situation our economy currently is in, i think it's dangerous to think we won't have a retest...

SteveB- there must be millions of traders who got burned in October, and waiting for a chance to reduce their pain; furthermore, they all follow the same metrics, and are playing against eachother...if you're not an active trader, i wouldn't worry too much about it...if you are, then i would expect volatility to spike as we near the moving averages...

bsi87 - "It's what you don't see" So very true, this is why I'm keeping my radar on full alert!

craig- the key to being wise is to be inscrutable...;)

..and there must be a ton of cartoons showing inscrutable faces with hilarious thoughts popping up in the bubbles on top...

Chickenpookie,

If we retest the lows (not that we necessarily will) perhaps it will be caused by something less obvious than the ARM resets. There are deep concerns about defaults on emerging market debt and problems with municipal bonds. Could another crisis spark more deleveraging? Just trying to look ahead.

StevenB try Colin Twiggs last several reports.
This should give you a technical and fundamental perspective on why a retest is possible and where it would tend to happen.

ACL. Buy limit 80.71 Triple RSI accumulation mode but nice kangaroo tail reversal on Oct. 28. If order is filled, stop limit under the 10/28 low.

teamonfuego - Oh yes, the jobs report! Thanks for pointing that out, could have a dramatic effect (ouch!)...

Hey Sharky!

How's mum doin' this week?

I commend everyone for pointing out additional points of contention, we need to reference these events into our Gantt charts in anticipation of their arrival.

Oh, that's why wisdom eludes me.....I'm anything but inscrutable.

Interesting how we have inscrutable from 2nd and the "unseen" from others.....it's all a mystery at times.

I can't count how many times I've seen a ticker symbol or some little snippet of info that gets my attention enough to make a mental note, only to let it go.....and see a day later a massive run-up in the ticker that 'came to me'. This has happened quite a few times...enough I need to be more disciplined in my mental notes.
"it comes down to listening within..."

This is only one example.

"My own viewpoint is that the USA is in drastic need of State planning rather than its present misbegotten financial engineering. Only the State can build the new airports, renew the exisiting infrastructure, implement non military industrial policy."

Regulation reform - yes, state planning - NO. To think that the state is capable of planning an economy as complex at ours is, IMO, beyond foolish. Remember, this is the same state that cannot control spending and allowed Fannie/Freddie to literally collapse.

DXO if you think Oil may go higher
this may give us good return will buy under $5

betting on US election outcomes in the UK:

http://tinyurl.com/5rd583

Land slide by one party and market going to tank
Market usually likes deadlock

Just to point out the obvious....
The "event" might be the election and selling the news whatever the outcome.

Last Presidential election saw a video release from our friends in Hollywood, Pakistan.
Who knows?

Lots of fiscal reporting to come this week too.

All you boy scouts, Be Prepared.

Yeah, if the dems take the presidency, and get the fillibusterproof majority, the republicans will not be able to influence legislation-so it will be pure one party rule.

Cara 100 Update:

Upgrade:

WMT - to Overweight @ JP Morgan

Downgrade:

ERTS - to Long Term Buy (from Buy) @ Hilliard Lyons

Price Target Raised:

CVX - from $70 to $80 @ Credit Suisse

Price Target Lowered:

ATVI - from $22.50 to $18 @ Wedbush Morgan
CSCO - from $25 to $19 @ Credit Suisse

"The country needs to be managed according to its Constitution, and not by its leading business and financial executives. "

Bill

I sure hope we get the Constitutional rule you have correctly pointed out that we need, I just heard "Joe the Plumber" on TV review his recent experiences with the return of government intimidation by "investigation" of dissenting views to suppress them. Brought back very negative memories of reports that Clinton was using the IRS to selectively "investigate" his critics during his last 4 years. Very depressing thought.

DXO 3 mo avg volume fairly low (300k shares) but huge volume (sometimes +4x) last month?

It's bigger brother DTO (double short) has higher volume and is sitting at the top of bollinger bands.

Comparing the two, find it a bit odd that the long has a larger spike downward than the short has upward Oct 23 - 27. Lack of liquidity?

SNDK: Supposedly upgraded. Nothing on Breifing.com but announced on Bloomberg.

Cara 100 Update (Geez these guys are busy today):

GG - Price Target Lowered from $47 to $38 @ RBC

TGP is raising the dividend to .57 for this quarter. I did not buy the 200 extra shares I talked about earlier last week. I want to watch this stock to see how its reaction is to before and after the dividend distribution. Are people buying the stock to collect the dividend, and then selling shortly thereafter???

I agree with Bill that we need to downsize the government, but with regard to thinking about that when we vote- what good does it do to think about it then? Other than voting for Bob Barr for President, there is no one else likely to downsize.

codger40 - I cannot agree, in several ways:

1) Federal - Infrastructure has always been funded with taxpayer monies, it's how our roads, bridges, airports were successfully constructed. Currently, these are all in disrepair, fly to China and look at their airport... Their state did a fine job, it seems.

2) State planning - This is precisely what I expect my government to do with tax monies collected from me as opposed to corporate welfare and selective regulation. What we've witnessed over most of the last 20 years is a bastardized version of state planning due to ESG.

vinod - I think oil will go up, but beware of Thursday rate cuts in EU and rising USD... All clear afterward.

bill commented earlier about gold being fairly strong overnight....now flat.
anybody have any thoughts on this phenomenon or is it merely the ppt traders at work?

Bill,

re: health care as a right

A given — everyone needs health care at some time, sooner or later. Everyone needs food, water and shelter.

Why the government should be involved aside from extreme emergency situations puzzles me.

The prior involvement by employers always seemed unnecessary to me and the call for taxing such as a part of a person's pay seems reasonable. (This was mostly a salve to union demands which has added to the nation's inability to compete globally.) As a self-employed, non-incorporated and self-emploted business owner it was only in the last few years of my working days that I was even allowed to deduct any of the costs and then only insurance premiums.

The problem, IMO, is with the strong insurance lobby. Health care insurance should be made to seek business in open competition. There is a sufficiently large number of low income people to warrant pricing to fit thheir needs and ability to pay.

The current set up allows pharma, health facilities, etc. to raise prices to outrageous heights in th e US, knowing the costs will be covered by insurance (justifying increasing the premiums). Both sides benefit by the upward spiral at the expense of individuals.

Government sponsor ship would simply increase the ability to continue the upward cost movement. (This is also, BTW, why college education costs so much in the U.S. — through government loans.)

A private sector operation must respond to consumer complaints — as it is now — my complaints were/are tossed back and forth between insurer and government with no recourse.

The parallels of banking-controlled western economies with Zimbabwe are very creepy:

http://www.mg.co.za/article/2008-11-03-zimbabwe-gold-mines-face-collapse

Regarding prior discourse looking for the next bull market leaders, (and has been mentioned on some other blogs that I read), the education stocks have shown good relative price performance of late.

Obama's emphasis on education in his campaign may be the impetus for their strength.

The charts are in most cases are very sloppy, which reflects the recent market volatility.

In no particular order:

APOL
EDU
APEI
STRA
ESI
DV

This is in no way a recommendation on my part to buy these stocks. Just a group to put on the watch list for further study.

CP,

Retesting the lows...

You might find this relevant.

http://tiny.cc/fQ6tC

FWIW

Canaccord has info about "notable 52-week highs and lows" which I use as a barometer for market sentiment. Here is the info for the last 4 Fridays:

Oct 10....... 2 new Hs vs 736 new Ls

Oct 17....... 0 new Hs vs 124 new Ls

Oct 24....... 2 new Hs vs 342 new Ls

Oct 31....... 2 new Hs vs 45 new Ls

Grym - I believe you said that dysfunctional health care is a result of special interests control. Special interest control is a form of self-regulation, isn't it?

Flying car 'could be a reality within two years'
London (PTI): Flying cars may soon leap from the world of science fiction into reality, if automobile engineers are to be believed.

A team at Moller International is designing a flying car, called 'Autovolantor', based on a 200,000-pounds Ferrari 599 GTB model, which it claims would be in the market in just two years' time.

According to them, the vehicle will have the ability to take off vertically and hover, thanks to its eight powerful thrusters which direct air down for take off. Vents then tilt so the car can fly forward.

The flying car is expected to be able to do 100 mph on the ground and 150 mph in the air. The calculated airborne range is 75 miles and ground range is 150 miles.

Chief Designer Bruce Calkins said that the flying car "features a specially designed hybrid fuel and electric system to power the thrusters, creating as much as 800 horse power", and it would be able to fly at altitudes of up to 5,000 ft.

"Once in the air the vehicle manoeuvres like a helicopter, tilting nose down to move forward, rolling right or left for changes in direction. While maximum altitude could be much higher, the energy to obtain altitudes above 5,000 ft would be significant and so we expect it to stay below that height," 'The Daily Telegraph' quoted Calkins as saying.

Here's an article on the air car with a picture.

http://tinyurl.com/64oecy

As I understand the article, TATA (TTM Cara 100) will license the technology.

health care is a right when people can decide what exactly should be covered under this right.

shelter is a right, but is a 2000 sq foot semi in a nice suburb a right?

in canada many of the services covered under our plan are not even remotely related to basic critical care. while other services like physiotherapy and eye exams arent covered under the public plan. i blow about $100 a year on eye related exams, but somehow people maintain that health-care is this sacred cow that covers all our costs.

the reality is less things are being covered, more costs are creeping in for the taxpayer, health care taxes are being increased via "premiums" and "user fee's" and provinces are facing deficits to continue to fund health care.
its not a successful system if the costs are only going up and our capacity to cover said costs are done via deficit spending. at some point the amount we pay in public taxes to maintain whats left of our public health care wont be worth it without some real reform and accountability in the system.

if anyone is interested in a high risk, potential high reward scenario, i'd like to point you to LVS (Las Vegas Sands). not on the long side, though. with mounting debt levels now standing at over $8 Billion and only 1/9th that level in cash, operating in an industry with very rough conditions going forward, and with one of its competitors (MGM) raising debt at 16% last week, they may not make it.

The Jan $30 calls are trading at 1.40 x 1.70. I would suggest writing calls on this stock. I'd also suggest going short the stock or buying puts. In my mind, it is a no brainer short to $0.

Grym writes: "(This is also, BTW, why college education costs so much in the U.S. — through government loans.)"

Please explain how you think this works and drives up tuitions and the cost of education.

Vinod:

I can just see the municipalities trying to figure a way to give flying cars speeding tickets. How the hell are they suppose to hang traffic lights up there?

Recent news brief from PR RE: XOM, BP, CVX, COP, RDX.A http://tinyurl.com/5pqtnh
Disclosure: No ownership or relationship with any of the oils.

Bought some SOL this am. $7.30 and $7.38. Went a bit lower after i bought and i pulled trigger as stoch and rsi was falling but rolling up.

In it for the trade, not long term investment.

http://tinyurl.com/55wzcl

One stock I am following is LLL.to

Seems to have fallen off a cliff since Friday. Lots of selling pressure.

Those links that Bill posted on WIR: Money as Debt etc: The Youtube videos have all been removed. This is insidious. Does anyone know where else they are posted that cannot be tampered within this way?

[Bill Cara note:

I just checked them all and they are all working for me. Maybe it's my IP address here in The Bahamas, but I think something else might be blocking your access to them. Would others let me know if those links in the WIR section on Bonds still work? Thanks.

The 30-minute video link was sent to me by a school teacher. I was impressed by the quality. I don't care by the fear-monger window-dressing; this info has to be packaged for the mainstream if it's going to be given credibility. Generally speaking, I liked what I saw. I wish bankers offered video-based info like this rather than the deceitful stuff we see in their TV commercials ("You're Richer Than You Think!")]

Question for options experts.

Two $20 stocks A and B.
A - The Jan '10 put $15 option for one is selling for $2.45
B - The Jan '10 put $15 option for the other is selling for $6.3

I believe these two stocks will go down the same. Any way to understand the pricing difference here?

nemo
Democrat will say it is a car and give them speeding ticket to collect money
And republican will say it is a plane so there is no speeding ticket for plane
And it will take them time to figure it out what this is?

westcoaster,

Just Google "Money as Debt".

Don't seem to be pulled.

Please explain how you think this works and drives up tuitions and the cost of education.

I'll take a shot at that...

Because the institution lobbies Washington for increasing loan limits and subsidies so that they may cover their "ever-increasing costs".

To be fair, we must compensate for taxation through inflation. In the interest of achieving validity, all of these claims should be normalized to the rate of inflation. Only then can you begin determining if average rates of increase are justified. The State is responsible for doing their homework, prior to succumbing to the influence of special interests.

Vinod,

The flying car dream has been around a long time. The problem with it was never the engineering. It's the "drivers". We can't seem to convince a good proportion of the population to drive safely in two dimensions let alone in three. Can you visualize a "road rage" incident at 5000 feet... directly over your house?

And the Moller Autovolanter (now, there's a catchy bit of branding): Have a look at a picture and tell me how well it will glide if the engine chokes. Even a helicopter can autorotate to a power-off landing.

Nope. Give me a real car for driving and a real airplane for flying.

Good morning All - Fannie today laid on another set of pricing adjustors that will act to raise the mortgage rates for all but the most creditworthy with low loan to values. This was done I suppose to increase the marketability of mortgage backed securities they sell.
MFN continues its nice movement - probably with other juniors in or near production a somewhat attractive target. Happy Trading

My Feathered Friend,

Re-test the bottom? There are many reasons to think this is a definite possibility. An immediate concern is an exogenous event such as a crazy who acts out his disappointment with this week's election results, a FX crisis, or more likely the simple re-pricing of risk and some value determination based on a corporation's ability to generate profit in an recessionary environment. It is prudent to look back to where the corp was valued when there was a similar level of economic activity, say, the post 2000 tech meltdown. These price-points may be more realistic that what the sell-side is saying. In the meantime, there is lots of good stuff out there that can come to me. Forty percent of my investment capital has been waiting over 2 years for such opportunities to be acted upon.

ALOHA !!

"Regulation reform - yes, state planning - NO. To think that the state is capable of planning an economy as complex at ours is, IMO, beyond foolish."

I agree the State is incompetent and I also believe the private sector is as incompetent or more! Just look at the banks as an example. Without US TAXPAYER help they would all be standing in line with LEH! Most of the FORTUNE 500 depend on US government sweetheart deal contracts. Where would they be? Don't get me started on the Unions and their preferential treatment ...

The common denominator to why both State and Private are having trouble surviving is the corrupt monetary system we are all forced to live under. Without a "long term" store of value how can any business plan further than the next FOMC meeting? These "floating currencies" are not suitable for stability. Why should any company have to "hedge" a currency unless that currency is so unstable hedging is required. THEY'RE ALL UNSTABLE!!! Think about that! The very fact that hedging exists means there is inherent instability in prices. This is because fiat allows for unlimited expansion and whenever such corruption exists it allows for unlimited manipulation and intervention. There are no checks and balances and whats worse there are no BRAKES! The fact there are no brakes shows the HUGE flaws of Keynesian economics, which is about all any ivy league college teaches.

Look at the US FED ... There is an example of a "private group" that has lost the ability to control anything. In fact if you follow rate cuts all you have to do is look at the 3month TBill rates and you will see the US FED follows those rates to a tee and has been doing so for over 50 years. In effect that renders the US FED useless since the markets and the holders of US DEBT(foreigners)set the rates not Ben. All Ben does is announce what the 3month TBill rates are! The US FED is a prime example of a private group who has no business running anything much less our entire monetary system!

So ... NO, neither sector has had much success ...

ITS THE MONEY STUPID!!

Those boat cars really caught on.... :)

Money as Debt,

Yep links are still working for me.

I watched them all several months ago, very interesting.

One of the so-called market pundits recently said (paraphrased): When looking for stocks to buy now, choose the ones which have been showing strength during this Bear move.

Frankly, I am disinclined to follow advice from "pundits" and tend to question of such advice when given. In this case, the first thought that comes to mind is that it would appear to me that this pundit is advising me to buy ultra short ETF's now that a Bull turn is possibly coming because such stocks have done well during the Bear drop. Surely not - just an over-generalization on the part of the pundit?

Looking at it from a different viewpoint, my next thought is that if a lot of this recent market drop was caused by margin calls (and funds flows) and the thus resulting sales of most valuable stocks in order to get the most cash quickly, then perhaps THE place to look for stocks for possible purchases is in a list of those stocks with excellent fundamentals, and price history, that have been sold down over a short period of time by hedge funds, mutual funds, and speculators to unreasonably dramatic low prices.

Wait a minute - isn't that what Bill Cara has advised?

In any case, I personally will wait for the "falling daggers" to bounce and point upward before buying, but that's just me.

Air car - Any figures on that in terms of energy efficiencies? Mean old Mr. Gravity made me give up flying light aircraft years ago for this reason.

Thanks Wavesmash, re Youtube, last night I went there, "no longer available", today they are there.

Bought more SRS at $119.00.

In my experience, which is relatively recent, the education lobby is, if your idea is valid, a total failure.

In reality loan limits have fallen and rates have gone up almost yearly and for a while there it was faster.

Everyone needs to understand. There is no such thing as a government loan for education.
There are government guaranteed loans through private institutions like Bank of America, but they get favored federal rates (we know this already) and are guaranteed a return on lending us our own money back for a tidy profit.
It is not a government loan.
Not only do these banks get guaranteed cutomers with guaranteed loans, but you CANNOT default or have these loans released in bankruptcy, so *everyone* is guaranteed and there is then no implied liability for the taxpayer.

The process is to file the federal application so everyone pays their share under a standard formula.
This then goes to regional loan facilities which coordinate with the college/university financial aid office, the banks that make the loans and the student. The financial aid office is responsible for matching individual needs with academic strengths/majors and coordinating with scholarships, parent responsibility, student responsibility, grants, etc. and put a package together. At almost every step is some pricing pressure from one of the three parties to hold the amounts down.

I don't see any connection between rising tuitions and the process of funding.
I see a lot of connection with inflation that we all see. If my TP goes up 25% (it did) then so does all the stuff a school uses. It's not complicated.

My daughter graduated with a BS in Zoology and Professional Writing in two years with $17,000 in debt. after using a program for qualified students that doubles up HS and Community College so she could earn an AA and a High School diploma concurrently and enter any Washington State University as a junior.
IOW, she saved the taxpayers more than double and saved me untold thousands for two years of tuition at WSU.

The one market factor that most miss....
Parents are flipping most of the bill and nearly 50% of students don't graduate. There is plenty of pricing pressure built in. I can testify to that. If it isn't parents but is in fact a student loan, the student is under pressure to keep it to a low roar. I saw both.

Why flying cars are an unphill battle:

Dear Honourable Sirs,
My name is Mohammed and I am interested in attending flying car school in Florida.
I only want to learn about leaving the garage and how to use cruise control. I will learn parking later.

Please inform me about tuition and proper documentation.

Yours Truly,
Mohammed

re:SLW

One cancels the other order.

sell limit 11.50 (50 week EMA)/sell stop limit 3.15 stop/3.10. cost 2.86 so if I'm stopped out, it's at a small profit and not a big loss.

I would be more afraid of Dick Cheney or John McCain flying around...

http://tinyurl.com/6zqql2

http://tinyurl.com/44qjbh

Maverick? :)

money as debt from g-videos
http://tinyurl.com/yr554g

The Banking Scam (Zeitgeist Addendum)
http://tinyurl.com/6pbtvt

another interesting one.

TerryC - "Re-test the bottom?" Agreed, all valid reasons for re-testing a bottom. The art lies in weighing these against inverse scenarios in order to predict direction. Fortunately we seem to be in a brief deflationary period. I'd like to add, I seem to have witnessed deliberate abrupt changes having blown through my mental stops many times only to recover almost immediately.

So what's a feathered mother to do...? I think ya gotta be in the game if ya wanna play, I'm confident the sun will rise tomorrow, but maybe not in the morning.

A news item today, more in keeping with how the immediate future for transportation may look:

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSN0331410320081103

ALOHA !!

Why is healthcare unaffordable again? I missed that? We talk about cost but really never say why! Which candidate addressed the REAL "why"? No, it is not the greedy AMA ...

I posted here a couple years ago that when my Father died I got some of his possessions. In that box was a wallet that his Dad had when he died in the 1952. In that wallet was an insurance card from the DALLAS INSURANCE GROUP, Dallas, Texas and on the back of that card was the list of procedures and the costs that were covered(AMA approved). A room at a hospital(non private) was $1.50 per day. A private room was $5 per day. An xray was $5 and major surgery was $160. Minor surgery was $25.

Okay ... now why is it prices are so unaffordable today? DUH-H? Anyone care to guess? The more we allow government to expand the more we PAY! Its just that simple. Government should be allowed to participate(meaning spending)in the military, guarding our borders and infrastructure. Anything else should be verbotten!

Our monetary system needs to be returned to honesty! All else is dependent on that one fact ... We need to eliminate the FRN and fractional reserve and clean out banks and the derivative markets. Some of the synthetic CDOs are leveraging 80 to 1 now ... Even after the $700bil BAILOUT! These banks just don't care and why should they so long as we keep electing their GUYS? President Bush and Obama are both on the same side! They both embody MORE GOVERNMENT not LESS! They both promote the fiat agenda!

I AM WRITING IN ... RON PAUL! The only honest money candidate out there ... I call that a PROTEST VOTE just as if it were Vietnam all over again! It's really worse than Vietnam, even without a draft, and I am just blown away by the two "band-aid" choices standing before us! Neither one have ever shown any leadership skills other than "follow the leader" mentality and tell us what we want to hear. These guys are experts at getting elected and nothing more. Once elected they turn the entire game controls over to the special interests and the "Keynesian experts"! What sort of CHANGE is that? Oh yeah ... and we definitely DON'T NEED IT!!!

By the way, if you guys saw where I go to vote tomorrow you would be blown away. Maybe the only voting poll where the ocean spray wets you ballot! HA!! Any closer to the ocean and I'd be surfing! HA!!

RON PAUL ALL THE WAY!!!

HONEST MONEY ALL THE WAY ...

From what I understand McCain has already wrecked a few million $ worth of flying stuff in his previous career....not counting the last landing in N. Vietnam.

Paulson's Swindle Revealed
"They paid $125 billion for bank stock that a private investor could purchase for $62.5 billion. That means half of the public's money was a straight-out gift to Wall Street, for which taxpayers got nothing in return. "

please click on url to read the full outrageous story

Chicken - do you think Muhammad will be able to qualify for a no-doc liar loan?

Yes, McCain has cost the US taxpayer too much money by his maverick seat of the pants aircraft antics and needs to be grounded. He has been imprisoned under suspicious circumstances. In addition, while in prison, he was uncooperative and belligerent towards prison authorities, and has stolen guns and ammunition.

this is the url to story on "PAULSON'S SWINDLE REVEALED"
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081110/greider2?rel=rightsideaccordian

WILLIAM GREIDER HAS BEEN AN INVESTIGATIVE FINANCIAL REPORTER FOR OVER 35 YEARS.
WROTE A PHENOMENAL BOOK ABOUT GREENSPAN.

Self-regulation by industry lobbyists and special interests is a misnomer. It should be called monopoly making.

When I think of self-regulation, I think of industry associations deciding which regulations helps or hurts the overall industry, not the current system of favored companies in favored industries writing their own rules to the detriment of everyone else in their industry.

It's funny how the government tried to bust Bill Gates for doing what they do everyday. He must not have spent enough lobbying Congress.

Rob.

I don't know if I would go that far CP! LOL!

Rights?
I have a real problem with so-called "Rights". This term is flung around to cover all kinds of needs from eating breakfast in schools, to federally funded education, to jobs in spite of qualifications, to hospitalization without a review of ability to pay, child care from birth, and more. How does a "need" become such a "right"? Is it in the Constitution that government MUST provide such benefits to its citizens? It's not.

Or, does Nature provide such rights to all its creatures (walk through the back roads of Africa, Haiti, etc for the answer). No?

Then where are such "rights" given the status of "ultimatum"? Unless provided for in our Constitutuion, the ONLY right any US citizen has is to die, and that isn't denied indefinitely (yet) to anyone.

jmho.

William Greider

National Affairs Correspondent

William Greider, a prominent political journalist and author, has been a reporter for more than 35 years for newspapers, magazines and television. Over the past two decades, he has persistently challenged mainstream thinking on economics.

For 17 years Greider was the National Affairs Editor at Rolling Stone magazine, where his investigation of the defense establishment began. He is a former assistant managing editor at the Washington Post, where he worked for fifteen years as a national correspondent, editor and columnist. While at the Post, he broke the story of how David Stockman, Ronald Reagan's budget director, grew disillusioned with supply-side economics and the budget deficits that policy caused, which still burden the American economy.

He is the author of the national bestsellers One World, Ready or Not, Secrets of the Temple and Who Will Tell The People. In the award-winning Secrets of the Temple, he offered a critique of the Federal Reserve system. Greider has also served as a correspondent for six Frontline documentaries on PBS, including "Return to Beirut," which won an Emmy in 1985.

Greider's most recent book is The Soul of Capitalism: Opening Paths to A Moral Economy. In it, he untangles the systemic mysteries of American capitalism, details its destructive collisions with society and demonstrates how people can achieve decisive influence to reform the system's structure and operating values.

Raised in Wyoming, Ohio, a suburb of Cincinnati, he graduated from Princeton University in 1958. He currently lives in Washington, DC.

Sorry about the rant.

spot

As far as the availability of guaranteed loans causing tuition rates to increase, I think it's a valid argument.

I think a comparison to the housing bubble works well.

Just as house prices reached astronomical heights when the pool of buyers was increased through no-doc loans and easy money, tuition rates have grown to bubble proportions because of the larger pool of applicants caused by guaranteeing student loans.

Rob.

LLL.to down due to downgrade today (earnings in USD?). Pullback of 40% seems a bit higher than CADUSD=X pullback.

Another one I'm looking at is CAE.TO which dropped 30% in the recent downdraft and was downgraded to hold end of Sept.

You'll need more flight simulators if we decide that flying cars are going ahead, unless we learn from running into light poles like I did. :)

Speaking with a flight trainer out east and one closer to home a few months ago, they both told me the bulk of their students are coming from Asia this year and next.

"The deals, signed today in Beijing, include a five-year $65-million contract for the Moncton Flight College to train at least 600 new Chinese pilots."

http://tinyurl.com/6hdjeu

Many stocks I'm looking at seem to have not hit their previous high and appear to validate the theory that we're going lower from here...

Currency exchange must be a big input to any program trading & risk models?

CADUSD vs. XIU
http://tinyurl.com/5e53og

XIU
"The meaning of the name Xiu is Elegant, Beautiful

The origin of the name Xiu is Chinese"

Kaimu,
I'm with you Ron Paul all the way. Make sure you take a dip in the ocean for us all when you go down to vote today!

My resoning, which may be wrong, is that if Obama wins, stocks will lift temporarily, but the Paulson & Co regime, will knock down the prices of equities to remind everyone who has the power.

Still a bit foggy on the timing of the above but i think this week will end in a nice rally. maybe next week equites are pulled down to test support.

Also Gold has to go up for Obama's renewable energy economy to get 100% buy in. Meaning his plan is not as needed with cheap oil.

Timing is the most important right? still foggy on that one though.

Healthcare,
I could talk for years about this subject as we're very close to the industry.

I have a contrary view to most people as well. I think the main problem isn't too little insurance, it's too much insurance.

We already technically have universal insurance. You can either buy private insurance or if you're poor you can get medicaid, which covers far more than private insurance.

And if you're somewhere in the middle group that complains you can't afford insurance and can't qualify for medicaid then I attest that more freedom is what you need and not more insurance.

What I would like is a true catastrophic plan with a 5K or 10K deductible per year and low premiums.

In NY the Health Insurance lobby has too much power so the only catastrophic plans you can get here still cost more than 50% of what full insurance costs. So, with 6K being the max out of pocket expense on top of the premiums, you would actually spend more in NY if you had to meet the deductible every year.

Once again, if industry wasn't allowed to write it's own rules giving it monopoly power, we'd have more free choice and freedom in our health decisions

Also, don't forget that the Health Insurance industry consumes over 25% of all health care dollars. In a more free system, most of treat money could be used to actually treat patients instead of to push paper.

Rob.

Don't you get the feeling if there were any sharks in the water when Kaimu jumped in they'd all swim away real quick...

Rob: That would be a good analogy if home owners had to take placement tests or have a given GPA to buy a house. Colleges and Universities have other requirements besides getting a student loan. If that weren't true then perhaps the homebuyer analogy would stick.

I don't care how much you can borrow, if you don't have the grades and test scores you aren't going anywhere.

That is quite a bit different than the home loan boondoggle.

re: Healthcare

US has a complex topology network of insurers and service providers. It is so complex that there are intemediary organizations that translate what someone is billed for, to what benefits they actually receive on the other end. Not everyone names things the same, and each insurance fiefdom creates its own rule systems on what will be paid, on what service, when and for how long. And you're wondering why it is complex and costs more?

Furthermore, with all of this competition, all of these fiefdoms of medical practice, costs don't come down. You think many little guys have more power to keep costs down then one big guy? Do you think patient's have any leverage as a collective?

I'm all for honest money, but saying that in the US the government makes healthcare more expensive is provably false.

Look outside the box of the US to a simpler (though imperfect) system. In Ontario, the schedule of fees and services is clear in fact, here is the PDF file for physician services!

http://tinyurl.com/6k3y5w

There you go, 12 million people can look at that PDF and know what their insurance system pays out. Look at the fees they are waaaay less, if you're in the hospital for a drug overdose and the internist comes to save your life he bills a "A135 Consultation" at $132.50. Pretty good deal the tax payer is getting.

Boy Rob, I agree wholeheartedly with you on health insurance though.

My wife and I were looking at the healthcare savings accts ....what a joke.

I think with the Election it will be like a FED announcement. I see a couple of head-fakes and maybe a surge of euphoria to somewhere between DOW 10K and 11K.

That is where tons of overhead supply is sitting and waiting to sell, like many people here.

How much selling we have depends on alot of factors like if another major bank goes under, or we have a geo-political event, or Europe doesn't cut rates.

I would like to see the current lows get undercut to shake out any remaining weak holders and set up a nice double bottom in the indexes.

If we do get to between 10K and 11K, I plan to sell some of my longs and start a few short positions.

Rob.

TYPO on my last post.

I meant OIL has to go up for Obam'a energy economy plan to make sense. but i also think gold will have to go up too.

Re: Enterprise-sponsored gov't/Next leg down

GM gambit to emerge from bankruptcy as a ESG entity.

Senario looks like this: Chrysler assets given to GM in exchange for remainder of GMAC to Cerberus Cap Management, giving 100% ownership in GMAC to CCM. CCM, as reported in the press, requires charter bank status in order to lock up a Paulson handout. Paulson has so far said no to this conversion of GMAC. To force Paulson's hand, GM files bankruptcy to rid itself of legacy pension burden and vast oversupply of state-franchise-protected dealership network. Paulson panicks and yells "Uncle!" GMAC, with its newly bolster balance sheet, provides GM a truly massive line of credit to allow GM to emerge a leaner competitor to the foreign OEMs. It all adds up.

I believe GM bankruptcy will be the next big leg down in the U.S. equities sometime shortly after the election. GM files and Paulson and his buddies at HB&B bailout a wholely owned and newly chartered GMAC bank but not before allowing the Midwest unemployment rate to hit depression-era levels in a game of greed and power.

Thoughts?

Ford October vehicle sales down over 30%....yeow.

If the index continue to do well today I like Genworth Financial (GNW)AIG and ABK.

Craig,
So, what's your take on why Tuition has increased so much faster than the rate of inflation in recent years?

The health savings account would be a great idea if we were in a state where healthcare isn't run by the health insurers.

If I have a plan with a 6K deductible then I should be paying much less than 5K in yearly premiums. But Insurers are in control and they don't want people choosing plans that limit their power and give us more freedom.

Rob.

I could easily see a GM bankruptcy along with overhead supply selling happening very soon after the election.

Rob.

When are those hedge fund guys/gals going to jump back in the pool?

teamonfuego - Muhammad will qualify for this loan upon successful completion of the heartbeat confirmation exam. All Aliens must appear, however briefly....

GSS: taking my 30% here....

Anyone care to compare GM default to Lehman? I wouldn't want to...

http://tinyurl.com/5epmlc

GM bringing Delphi out of bankruptcy?

"Delphi to Send Pension Obligations to G.M."
http://tinyurl.com/6z7cbd

"Judge gives Delphi more time for reorganization"
http://tinyurl.com/5c6t96

That was Oct 23 - market tanked then recovered Oct 27.

"Delphi Corp. wants loan extension
Former GM parts unit will seek as long as until June to pay off $4.35B in funds needed to operate."

http://tinyurl.com/5fxedk

So is the market riding around GM & the automakers?

For today's comment, I agree with Bill. But I think it is impossible to implement it these days. I think average Joe are hijacked by politicians and financial executives. They are warning average Joe if there is no bailout, you (Joe) are going to suffer. But at the end of days, politicians and executives are the biggest beneficiaries.
Ironically, average Joe loves to have government involved. I sense the trendy of demanding a bigger government.

I recall that a few years ago, people in developed countries were laughing at China and said that their banking system has a high bad debt ratio, Chinese government bailed out their banks. Today, when I look at US, is there anything different? At least for me, they are the same.

Just coming back from HongKong. For your information, Hong Kong is the best place to buy physical gold. Yesterday price is that $780+ for one ounce of 9999 gold. I recommend any one is interested. Physically go there, gold shops are everywhere. They sold the highest quality gold in my opinion. Store the gold in HongKong after purchasing it. Hong Kong government is one of the effective government in the world. I feel much more comfortable with them than US.

Also, you can buy gold at HongKong airport when you make a connection. The price is the same as outside shops.

Shipping on a real tear today, get ready for the next wave!

Rob: I'm not sure it has been rising any faster at the secondary ed level as opposed to what I see locally at the primary level, so I can't say I know, or if it really isclimbing as much as the talking heads says it is.

First off, the rate of inflation is bogus, so I want to start there.

Think about it...how many employee's health does the University have to insure? Just extrapolate that out to everything they do, just like all of us.

SLW moving up nicely, would feel better about it if SLV was over 10.50 at least.
SLV not acting as bullish as expected, but still could.

GLD inching up, target still 78, maybe tomorrow.
It could also just collapse back down to the 70.70 fib without much of a rally, worst case.

SLV should act more bullish than gold in general I am thinking, and preferably not retrace the whole of whatever rally it puts in.

Positive that GLD & SLV are moving up while USO is down. Still see USO going lower.

Equity market should go back down to lows of the current trading range again soon, maybe by middle of next week.
Then we shall see.

apollo7
You don't push my button am just wondering what positive could come from your comments on Bill? Opinions are fine but I dislike the character assassination, it is a waste of time and space on this blog.

Does LVS follow MGM and WYNN, both down some 7 to 11%? I think so. The only reason it is up today is an analyst upgrade with a target price of $44. If I had a chance, I'd ask the analyst these simple questions:

(1) How will the company continue to pay off the interest expense on its $9Billion in debt during a period of a bad economic recession and declining sales when it could barely cover those expenses when sales were good?

(2) If your answer to (1) above is that it will sell off its assets to reduce debt, please let me know who the buyers are? SWF's? Haven't they had enough of U.S. companies that are highly leveraged?

(3) What portion of your institutional investors were long the stock prior to your Buy rating released today?

mbernold - Paulson's swindle

Thanks for posting that article. The actual letter from the USW to Paulson has the details comparing Buffett's investment in Goldman to Paulson's.

http://tinyurl.com/56fhtr

Is there a wall-street analysis veteran in the community confirm the USW's financial analysis - to the effect that Paulson overpaid vrs. Buffett by 100%?

Rob,

In Utah I have a plan with Humana with a 5K deductible that cost $83/mo. for a 49 year old single male. I've been getting a high deductible plan with a variety of providers over the years that is always low cost. Luckily, I have a good health history so maybe that is why premiums are low.

UGA buy stop limit 28.81/28.82

Do your own homework.

pulling USG/ACL orders.

Mish's reported last week that Volvo truck orders are down 99.63% in Q3 from previous Q3. That is a scary big drop. Economy cannot avoid the Big Three. Vehicle manufacturing is a core industry led astray in recent years by the tax-advantaged vehicle lease. Bankruptcy at GM, after taking on Chrysler assets, is in the cards. Ford will follow a GM bankruptcy. In the past year, GM has been restructuring and centralizing heirarchy to better manage coming bloodbath. UAW membership in steady long-term decline but has final option to turn violent.

It's about pension plan obligations to the large retired UAW memebership and massive overabundance of state-franchise protected dealership network. Bankruptcy is the only way for GM, the largest employer in the world, to downsize.

Expect MSM to say something nice about Detroit for once just prior to the collapse.

will be looking at XTEX tomorrow AM

Health insurance in the US - makes you sicko!

My wife and I pay about $700/month for insurance that doesn't do anything till I'm $10,000 in the hole for the year.

My REAL health insurance is that I run 4 miles every other day (have for years) and eat really good FOOD.

If I ever have a medical emergency likley to cost under $100K, I'll probably end up comparing expected costs, and hobbling onto a plane to Mexico, where good care costs a fraction.

Yesterday's LA Times had an excellent series of articles on how to shop for health services overseas: http://tinyurl.com/69cq4a

The "Joint Commission International" has certified lots of excellent overseas medical facilities. BTW, there are 1.2M Americans living in Mexico now. I bet most are retired.

Please could people on this blog be polite and respectful of other people.

Everyone is overheated but this is a financial blog...in the end.

R-E-S-P-E-C-T

[Bill Cara note:

I have been too busy to follow this, but when I started getting mail, I spent two minutes cleaning up 9 items. In the future when you see objectionable material, please send email to editor [at] billcara.com rather than commenting further. I will have to put an editor in place to use their judgment as to what gets modified or deleted. Unfortunately, I no longer have the time to read and consider everything that happens in the Discourse.]

Craig,
Great point. I never though of it that way. Our school taxes have doubled in the last 10 years while our town taxes have stayed the same and the school has fewer students now than it did then.

Where I went to college cost 25K when I graduated in '92 and now it's just over 40K.

For that small example college costs haven't been growing nearly as quickly as government-run education.

It all really seems to tie-in to Kaimu's main argument about how the dollar is constantly being devalued so it buys less while prices rise.

It's too bad our salaries don't rise as fast as the purchasing power of our dollar falls.

Rob.

Couple of thoughts on healthcare in the US:
1) Its not a free market, as price discovery is virtually impossible. I once asked the blood lab how much discount they would give me if I paid cash at the time they drew i.e. effectively prepaying and they said 25%. When I got the statement from the insurance company, they had actually paid 25%, so blood lab gave a 75% discount for the privilege of working through the insurance company bureaucracy and waiting a couple of months to receive their money.
2) When researching Medicare supplemental insurance plans, BS proudly informed me that 70% of money received (i.e. mine and the governments contribution) went into healthcare, so 30% went to bureaucracy and profit.

I saw a graphic somewhere recently (but stupidly didn't save it !!!) that showed public spending on healthcare in developed countries, and US spent similar amounts as others, but then we add as much again spent "privately", so overall we pay a lot more, yet by many measures such as overall life expectancy we don't do as well, so we're not getting value for money, that's for sure.

health insurance- i agree with Jock...there is no better way to lower your health-care costs than staying healthy..

Jesse,
Obviously, healthcare in your state isn't run by the insurance companies.

I would love a plan like you have. And, with all the money I would save every year, I could actually be able to pay for most of our health expenses in older age instead of having to rely on Medicare or sell everything to qualify for medicaid at that point.

Must be nice living in a state with that much freedom. I do love where we are in NY but the onerous nature of the state always keeps me considering moving.

Rob.

I've been acquainted with a few admissions employees. The schools know exactly how much aid is available. They also got in the game of telling parents they were expected to take equity out of their homes. It's no different than th sub-prime situation. The more money available, the higher the prices.

94% drop in auto bond sales since last October.

http://tinyurl.com/6ca3co

"Sales of auto bonds slumped to $500 million last month, compared with $9 billion in October 2007, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. data. The cost to sell the debt surged to record highs over benchmark rates as concern that car owners won't be able to make loan payments amid job losses, higher food and fuel costs and falling property values. "

Wasn't this story already printed in 2005?

http://tinyurl.com/6p6fc3

Cp,

I don't follow your idea that special interest control is self-regulating. Please explain.

I see very little regulation of any kind where insurance costs are concerned.

The state, federal, agencies I contacted when my premiums rose 457% within three years of my one and only claim relied with virtually the same form letter.

"They said you are in a group which has more health problems."

Duh!

if i read another prediction that the US dollar rally is oversold and ready to plunge at any moment, giving way to higher precious metals prices im gonna have kittens!!! people have been saying this since the US index hit 78.

how long and how far does the USD have to go before people stop calling any gains "bear market" rallies? how low and for how long does gold have to treat water along w/ mining stocks before people stop calling this a bull market in PM's?

$620? $590? or will those prices only bring out every one to shout what a great time it is to buy gold because its not going lower and your last chance to jump on the gold train???

i cant believe these guys still publish this nonsene on gold websites. heaven forbid if gold ever does break $1000, the sound of back-slapping will be deafening.

Craig et al.,

SNDK was indeed upgraded....by Goldman Sachs:

"NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of SanDisk Corp., the memory chip maker, rose Monday after a Goldman Sachs analyst gave the stock a "Buy" rating.

Goldman had not previously rated the stock, but in a note to clients, analyst James Covello called SanDisk shares "now too attractive to ignore."

Covello noted that the company's stock has been battered recently after Samsung Electronics Co., the South Korean electronics giant, pulled a $5.85 billion bid to purchase the company.

SanDisk has also been hurt by falling prices for NAND memory chips, a type of flash memory the company makes for consumer gadgets like music players and digital cameras.

But Covello said key intellectual property rights associated with the chips give the SanDisk more value than the market has recognized.

Shares of SanDisk are down significantly from a 52-week high of $45.49 and have lost about 73 percent of their value since the beginning of the year.

Covello has a 12-month price target of $13 on the shares.

On Monday, shares rose 69 cents, or 7.8 percent, to $9.58 in afternoon trading.

Regards

Craig,

A student gets a low interest government loan. The next year tuition, R&B, books — all go up X%. The student gets an additional loan of X% amount, and so on.

Professors get tenure, salary increases because the colleges know whatever price increase they come up with the student will simply borrow more.

There is no incentive to hold down costs at any point.

Business generally has no such automatic sugar daddy. (However, there are far more complex and creative ways for business to do it — gov. subsidies, depletion tax allowances, tax cuts on foreign earnings... another abomination, IMO.)

long Genworth and Ambac

"They also got in the game of telling parents they were expected to take equity out of their homes."

No they did not. Not legally. It isn't part of the application and it isn't used in determining eligibility. I'm sorry, I know there are some seeming complications, but it isn't that complicated or punitive. I just went to all three parents FAFSA applications (forms A,B & C)and there isn't ANY information required about homes or home values. There wasn't when I filld it out either.

If people took out equity loans it was of their own volition, it had nothing at all to do with the loan process or eligibility. That is based on income, period.

Seriously, before we criticize, we need to inform ourselves.

Anyone here can look for themselves at FAFSA.ED.org

Rob,

"Must be nice living in a state with that much freedom."

That's funny. I've never thought of Utah that way. I still buy a couple cases of "real" beer everytime I am in Arizona or Wyoming. In Utah you can only get 3.2% alcohol beer unless you go to the special state run liquor store and pay about double.

The mountains and desert are beautiful though... and I always feel very free in those places.

2ndAve - "craig- the key to being wise is to be inscrutable...;)"

Took me all day to remember where I had heard this before. Did you ever read Washington Irving's tale of Wooter Van Twiller. According to Washington, Wooter was a Governor of New Amsterdam(?) who rarely said a word but instead would sit through volumes of verbage and then mutter a single "Harrumph.".

Wooter was deemed the wisest of Governors. 8).

scaling into Northgate NGX(cdn)... 1st buy Friday at .81... nice bump today

I get the general gist of the "re-flation" is to create a dollar bull scenario.

I can see $625 in mid-November, if some projections are correct that the rally here is short-lived. Part of the recent decline was massive collapse on the Tokyo exchange, which took out bullion to its recent lows. Selling on both the TOCOM and the LME says that physical dumping is happening at very regular intervals. There is virtually no traction in either of these markets for bullion.

I am assuming that oil prices are going to continue lower, and that all commodities will be dragged with it. The only support I can think of for bullion are the low rate regime and a decline in a major currency like the Yen. There has only been a decline of outstanding contracts on the COMEX, so there is no case for a rise in the bullion price just yet.

That being said, the CAD seems to be doing well at the start of the week, and at least must eventually close the several gap-ups with the Yen.

Grym,
"They said you are in a group which has more health problems."

Sounds like you're in the same boat as all those companies getting hit with ratings adjustments. All it takes is one checkbox to move you from the top 1% to the bottom 99%. Kind of sad...

Self regulation worked well for the auto industry. Just ask Ralph Nader! :)

But too much regulation will just push industries to less stringent economies. (BRIC)

Note that Delphi actually expanded overseas while chopping US jobs.

What to do...

Right Grym, but now we are down to chicken vs egg. I agree with your order of events. Books, paper, pay, insurance, power, etc. all go up via inflation. Then tuitions go up to cover costs, then students make up the difference through the FAFSA process. It doesn't simply end in a loan or more loans.
If my daughters tuition went up say 100% and I was responsible for a percentage of her tuition, then MY alottment went up as well as the loan percentage.

The loan process does not lead the price, it follows like in all other budgets. They aren't prorating increases, they're trying to catch up.
And...it is not a government loan. She pays Bank of America. It is government guaranteed, meaning it benefits bankers return without any doubt.

And the government will garnish your wages to pay off the student loans if you don't pay them. I know a few people that had it happen to them.

Rob.

For sure. You can't escape them, not even in bankruptcy. This is the bank lobby at their deadliest. Well, that and the bankruptcy laws to begin with.....

Looks like Jim Sinclair's website is down. 'This is it!'

:0

Bravo Shark!

Sold HEU.to, replaced with HNU.to
jeff saut, minyanville and another on BBN over the wkd spoke up for natural gas. Tis the season?

So, how far do we have to go before we start calling it Usury again?

Didn't Usury used to be against the law?

Must have been when the world was on the gold standard.

Rob.

GS, BAC, and JPM looking pretty weak right now and the t-bill yield is still only .39%

Could we have a financial blow-up tomorrow for election day?

Rob.

Does anyone know if there's an ultra DOW or S&P500?

Thanks, Rob.

Good morning! It looks like the market is getting tired of going up. So I just sold at 0.81 1/2 of the WGW shares I purchased last week at 0.51. Keeping a sell limit order at $1.02 for the other 1/2 of those shares.

I am sure WGW will be above $1.00 in a few weeks, and then above $2.00 and $3.00 in several months if the inflation story (that Bill Cara, Marc Faber, John Hussman and other very respected portfolio managers are forecasting because of all the liquidity that is being pumped into the system now) does materialize.

But then, another question needs to be asked: will WGW hit $1.00 without dropping by $0.15 at any point before that? Maybe not. The recent rally was pretty good (60% gain in less than a week for me), so some retracement of that gain is possible. So I have just placed a buy limit order at $0.65 for the 2000 shares I sold today. If this limit does not get hit before WGW reaches my sell limit at $1.02, I won't be too upset either. :) Risk management (not being too greedy), as Bill teaches, is key for successful trading.

closed Friday's GLD call position at small loss, bought 2 GLD 74 Nov. puts.

Loonie gaining. Drat.

Finger Lakes

DDM for Dow
SSO for S&P 500

Grym - If I were a large defense contractor and oil drilling company, I might do my best to plant an insider into a governmental position who was capable of manipulation favorable to my desire. Or if I were an investment bank, I might lobby on behalf of the insurance industry to remove regulation which inhibits him from issuing unsecured credit default swaps.

If I were a health insurer, I might blame governmental regulation for my inability to perform claim payment. If I were able to manipulate the regulation to my benefit, "complaints were/are tossed back and forth between insurer and government with no recourse".

There is no end to what "self"-regulation is capable of accomplishing. Take your telephone bill out and scrutinize it carefully. You'll find unrelated fees collected by providers that are mandated by governmental regulation. Dig deeper, and you're likely to learn that this regulation was prescribed or massaged by industry manipulation and that monies collected by mandate become corporate profit.

There's a pot of gold at the end of the regulation rainbow if you are able to manipulate the rainbow. They take your money in a heartbeat but are even more adept at denying your claim due to "someone else's" incompetence. They'll blame it on regulation but then conveniently forget to mention they lobbied that regulation into existence.

BillG

Thanks!!

Rob.

Rob - Take a look at ULTRA SSO.

gold falling hard here on some USD strength.

dont see gold making any strong moves here other than back down below $690 just to drive the gold bulls crazy.

sold part of my HGU position again just now.
looking to reload should we trace down to $660 gold.

if we jump up to $800 in short order then ill jump back in. but i just dont see it right now, as the volumes on gold stocks are dwindlig and the metal is cracking.

good luck gang.

My favourite headline of today.

"Pro-Consumer Regulation Needs Real Teeth So You Can Sue The Jerks"

http://tinyurl.com/65ophm

That's all the US needs... more court cases. lol.

Best return on 1974 $100 bill ever.

"Target Pays $3.1 Million For Falsely Accusing Customer, Via Bulk Email, Of Passing Funny Money"

http://tinyurl.com/6c74qm

"100k in actual damages, $3m in punitive damages."

I wonder if they paid the government investigators too or did Joe the Taxpayer get stiffed?

Crude down 6% and the TSX is holding up fairly well so far only down 55 points so far today.

Seems very quiet today. lull before the election?

Chicken,

OK, so the sky isn't falling out there. But if we ever see Vinod's flying cars we better be prepared to run for cover every time there's a fender-bender up there! Besides, who says the air is free? The sky will become one big toll road and you'll pay some kind of "air tax" for every trip. Meanwhile, the ground will become covered with wind turbines in our government-funded drive to energy self-sufficiency. Then the govt will be applying a "wind tax" based on the amount of air that passes through the turbine blades. There's just no end to the schemes that Big Government will devise to get a piece of our future.

Trump gets his Scottish golf course approved.

Watch for the ornery fisherman on the 9th hole and those ecologically-sensitive sand traps in the back nine.

http://tinyurl.com/5mswnl

TAXMAN
Let me tell you how it will be
There's one for you, nineteen for me
'Cause I'm the taxman, yeah, I'm the taxman

Should five per cent appear too small
Be thankful I don't take it all
'Cause I'm the taxman, yeah I'm the taxman

If you drive a car, I'll tax the street,
If you try to sit, I'll tax your seat.
If you get too cold I'll tax the heat,
If you take a walk, I'll tax your feet.

Don't ask me what I want it for
If you don't want to pay some more
'Cause I'm the taxman, yeah, I'm the taxman

Now my advice for those who die
Declare the pennies on your eyes
'Cause I'm the taxman, yeah, I'm the taxman
And you're working for no one but me.

RE: Junior Miners

I just took a look at NAK, RBY, and WGW.

I was surprised to note that NAK has almost doubled in recent weeks (although it is down about 9% today).

thinking about doubling down on my short position in LVS at 14.00

Perhaps nothing much, just one of those little things that caught my eye in passing.
03 November 2008
China and Russia Moving Away from the US Dollar?
http://tinyurl.com/5vpus9

I think I'm going to straddle QLD and SSO for the election.

That way I can catch both the euphoric up move and the sell-off afterwards.

Or maybe I should just get puts on them as I already have some QQQQ calls and DIA calls. So, I really already have one side of the straddle and I can keep the half of the $$ I was going to use for the straddle for other opportunities.

If we rally into the close I'll buy the puts today. Otherwise, I'll wait for tomorrow.

Rob.

FYI: Canadian Warrants

http://tinyurl.com/5lwqc3

There is a lot of data here (although I am not sure how the fair market price is established).

Includes Kinross, Goldcorp, and Silver Wheaton.

Looking back. Remember LNG? Dropped to $.90, now $4.20. ESLR big moves recently.
It's amazing how many opportunities one misses. Hindsight 20/20 and all.

How will solar stocks do with the Obama win?

Craig, your taxman poem reminded of another one I read as a lad.

Tax his land,
Tax his bed,
Tax the table
At which he's fed.

Tax his tractor,
Tax his mule,
Teach him taxes
Are the rule.

Tax his work,
Tax his pay,
He works for peanuts
Anyway!

Tax his cow,
Tax his goat,
Tax his pants,
Tax his coat.
Tax his ties,
Tax his shirt,
Tax his work,
Tax his dirt .

Tax his tobacco,
Tax his drink,
Tax him if he
Tries to think.

Tax his cigars,
Tax his beers,
If he cries
Tax his tears.

Tax his car,
Tax his gas,
Find other ways
To tax his ass.

Tax all he has
Then let him know
That you won't be done
Till he has no dough.

When he screams and hollers;
Then tax him some more,
Tax him till
He's good and sore.

Then tax his coffin,
Tax his grave,
Tax the sod in
Which he's laid.

Put these words
Upon his tomb,
"Taxes drove me
to my doom..."

When he's gone,
Do not relax ,
Its time to apply
The inheritance tax.

Holding SOL here. Mental stop in place.

time horizon is this week.

RE: Solar stocks

Mr. Obama has pledged to invest billions into solar, wind, biodiesel and other alternative energy through a very aggressive cap and trade system.

"I was the first to call for a 100% auction on the cap and trade system, which means that every unit of carbon or greenhouse gases emitted would be charged to the polluter. That will create a market in which whatever technologies are out there that are being presented, whatever power plants that are being built, that they would have to meet the rigors of that market and the ratcheted down caps that are being placed, imposed every year" ......."That will also generate billions of dollars that we can invest in solar, wind, biodiesel and other alternative energy approaches”.

fox1 - I agree with the need to move to RE and even agree with Obama, but we can expect higher energy costs, it's all pass through.

It's about time for a M%^%EY isnt't it. We need the market up 400 in the last 30 minutes.

Rossville - Take a zero off and we have a chance.

DRYS - Nice move today with double usual volume, when most of my holdings showing half the usual volume. Guess equity traders are awaiting the election results on Wed. Should be more of the same drifting tomorrow. 10 year Treasury yield also flat line @ ~3.92-3.94% Happy Trading

Check out my solar list. might not be the most complete but it gives me a nice reading on the leaders.

Only 1 is down today. Holding SOL position for Obama rally. FSLR is a good barometer for the entire group.

CSUN
SOL
ESLR
CSIQ
STP
JASO
ENER
FSLR
WFR
SOLF
LDK
CDI
YGE
TSL
SPWRA
WGOV
FLR

Amazing. Goldman adds Boeing to their 'Conviction Sell list' today when BA is down $1.50 or so (not to mention the YTD fall) and now trading back up 0.63. Way to sucker 'em in at the lows Mr. Goldie. Great call on that one.

Just so you all know. WGOV makes wind turbines. i just kind of thre that in with my solar list.

good luck

Here's an Election 2008 "MONKEY!" for the close

Cheers!!!!

TAN

Solar energy index ETF . . . Heavier volume than usual . . . up 14% today

Disc: No position

"Here's an Election 2008 "MONKEY!" for the close"

And they wonder why we go to Bill Cara .com!

Where else can you get this kind of quality cheering?

My humble portfolio (at the moment) follows. Also considering bsi87's comment that "some stocks have bottomed, others are bottoming, some have yet to bottom":

I've noticed that in the small group of stocks that I track, some have bounced nicely off their lows (Deutsche Bank and Mosaic Corp). Others seem to have bottomed and are now stuck in a trading range (Alcoa). Still others have bounced a little off their lows and are making some headway (Valero, Deere, Tesoro, Cat). So I see a little opportunity to trade around these.

This is what I am holding:
200 AUY (down about 2 1/2 points)
100 NVLS (down 4, and posted poor earnings)
100 AKAM (down 4)
200 TSO (up about 2)
150 VLO (up 2 or so)
100 FTO (up 3)
100 AA (down 1 1/2)
3 TXN Jan2010 call 22 1/2
3 NOK Jan2010 call 20
5 AA Jan2010 call 20
3 TSO Jan2010 call 10
1 VLO Jan2010 call 25
Traded Deutsche Bank and Mosaic last week; in MOS at 27.50, out at 39.45; in DB at 31 1/2 and again at 27 1/2, out at 38 and change. The options are all underwater except for TSO.

50% cash in trading portfolio, 80% cash overall, 5% PM's (physical).

I'm not sure if its considered bad taste to list your holdings here (guess I should have asked first, if it is, pls ignore). Interested//curious about other positions.

re:LVS

RSI 7 day is 61. 50 DEMA is 24.

Discretion is the better part of valor.

No position.

GL

goldie,

It's okay to list your holdings but most don't list the amounts. Simply not done by gentlemen. LOL

Not sure if these was posted already, if so my apologies. To those Americans looking to see what is in store on the tax break front here is the link to the Obama-Biden Tax Calculator http://tinyurl.com/4bdp5r

Observations.

Valueline increased its stock allocation.

Gold is now lower than it was a year ago.

Fed model tilted toward equities. (SP 500 yield > (10 yr bond yield + 30 basis points to adjust to corporate bond yield).

Observations.

Valueline increased its stock allocation.

Gold is now lower than it was a year ago.

Fed model tilted toward equities. (SP 500 yield > (10 yr bond yield + 30 basis points to adjust to corporate bond yield).

Interesting discussion @jesse's cafe about the Russians and Chinese moving away from the dollar to perhaps gold for settlements on trade between the countries. Happy Trading

RE: Solar

I am going to play devil's advocate here.

Solar technology is cool and environmentally friendly of course, but what are the fundamental drivers here?

Rising oil prices - no
Rising natural gas prices - no
Decreasing margins for utilities - yes
Difficult financing market - yes
High utility customer delinquencies - yes (see todays WSJ)

Other than a proposed plan to throw more government cheese at alternative energy, what is there to like about solar?

Luggie,

re china/russia moving away from US dollar.

ive been reading about different nations moving away from the dollar for over 4 years.

none of it seemed to be true and if it did happen on a small scale it certainly did nothing to stop the USD from moving higher.

most doctrine before was that nations would move away from the dollar because it was falling so low, now most doctrine is saying nations will move away from the dollar because its moving up too high.

i put this on the same line as people saying that gold and gold stocks were supposed to go up during a financial failure and panic. it didnt, and it appears theres no lessons being learnt as the same folks are predicting "massive inflation" ahead and higher gold prices despite the money supply increases having already happened. people have been talking about hte increasing money supply for years as well and at best it spiked gold temporarily.

if china and russia were moving away from the dollar it would show up in the inflows/outflows of treasuries and their forex positions. right now russia has its own problems, divesting from the US dollar isnt one of them.

w/ respect to china i still have seen no credible evidence they have any plans for large-scale moves away from the dollar. it appears to be at best small moves with new funds and lots of tough talk.

it reminds me of all the iranian oil-bourse junk we heard last year every day while oil was jumping in price. oil in euros!!! it never happened as advertised and i barely hear about it any more.

until it happens and until we actually see tangible evidence of it happening, i continue to laugh at these predictions that price action has proven wrong but remain intact.

Listening to CNBC just now, Maria Bartiromo was questioning one of the Obama senior economic advisers as to the veracity of the claim that Obama will cut taxes for everyone who makes less than $250,000.

Bartiromo stated over and over that Obama is planning a $500 credit for those who pay taxes under certain conditions, and that it's not truly a cut in taxes.

They also had one of the Republican economic advisers on, and he too joined the questioning.

Personally, November 5 can't get here soon enough. I'm ready to focus on something else.

Billy,

You question is one i asked myself before trading solars todays. oil is not going to stay at these price levels. in fact Obama (if president) cannot go to work on his #1 priority, the new energy economy, if oil remains this low. just as the powers that be have manipulated oil down, i am pretty sure oil will be higher in 2009 vs where it is now.

it can be a big win win for all. consumer will be stuck with $100 oil again but you would have the fat cats making the oil profits, and new money going to energy investment with some domestic job creation.

The only thing that stuck to the wall ie: going to the moon, was the coldwar fear of the Godless commies and the "missile gap". That's how that national mission was sold.
We have a new national mission. Energy independence.

So I propose we start a hot war with the God obsessed middle east and invent an "energy gap". That ought to do it.

If we don't fill the energy gap the God obsesses middle easterners will vie for world energy hegemony. Oh, wait a minute....

Anyway, none of that profit crap ever came up in the moon race. The Prez came on, said we're going to the moon in ten years, and viola! We went to the moon. I think that Beatles song Taxman is on one of those golden discs on the moon.....or in space somewhere.....

Now we will have a Prez come on and say, we're going to be energy independent in ten years.
Ask those in the aerospace industries of the 60's and into the 70's what the driver was.

Difficult financing...pffft. Try financing an Atlas rocket. It makes financing a solar hot water heater look a lot easier, and it isn't as polluting.

I can hardly wait until I can become an energy producer/exporter.

".....with some domestic job creation."

True, but there will be corresponding job loss elsewhere.

"So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it's just that it will bankrupt them because they're going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that's being emitted."

Is there really much truth to this idea of green jobs being generated by the alternative energy revolution?

If we decide to build more solar power arrays instead of a coal/nuclear/gas power plants - have more jobs really been created or just shifted from one place to another?

Right now, some of these solar stocks might be beaten down so far that they are good for a trade - if day/week is your timeframe then long term fundamentals mean virtually nothing.

But, I don't see any reason that a longer term bet on solar stocks would have a better risk/reward ratio than just buying long dated calls on oil futures or buying oil prodcuer stocks at multi-year lows.

I miss Billy and Billy Beer.

I have a low threshold of excitement.

Craig:

They definitely required, whether they do now or not, I don't know, accounting of personal assets

Retrofitting homes would dwarf large scale energy projects re: jobs. Think about how many homes we're talking about compared to large energy projects and how many people they employ.

Once they're built they don't employ a lot of people. Solar would continue to be installed on new construction so it would be continuous and employment wouldn't depend on large public power project spending.

Norm, I did it about five years ago and it wasn't on the forms. Nothing about my house, but they wanted to know about *all* forms of income, pensions, etc.

That's why I checked the parental forms today, to see if there were changes (I don't want to misinform), and it was the same. I'm just telling you what I experienced and what the FAFSA site says.

retrofitting homes is a pipe dream. no American has the savings to put in a 30k+ system. even with a 10k tax break.

everything is a short term trade for me at this point. 1 weeek is the longest i will go. holding over weekend is a no no right now in my book.

stocks are sold and i am sure every broker in america will be pounding the phones tomorrow talking about fslr and csiq and the energy economy.

prob a nice selloff soon after. I still feel if obama wins, paulson & friends will do what is needed to get their message across.

Billy,

Your observations indicate that there is nothing about solar that is to be liked. A number- crunching exercise would support this today. However, there is nothing about war to be liked either - but look at the money being made by the military-industrial complex and look at those who don't benefit from a war policy. I'd rather be focused on a massive program that is tied to energy independence than some of the previous agendae. Technologies developed here can be sold to every country on the planet, without concern for the need to "protect our interests abroad".

I agree TerryC,

If GM had focused on hybrid/fuel efficiency when times were good then they wouldn't be in the mess they are in now. They can't see past their own noses and they deserve what they're getting (unfortunately their workers don't, but what else is new).

Obama will be able to sell the country on a forward looking energy program IMO. And by the end of his first term, when oil is back up to 150, he will have solidified his position for a second term. He's no fool that guy.

Brown-cal:

GM can't get the lanthanum supply for the current hy-brid battery technology. Their dependent on the development of lithium batteries.

They're dependent...

Posted by: Craig at November 3, 2008 8:33 AM

"I think it's downright criminal to so freely give welfare to giant corporations at the behest of lobbyists and hacks while the government of by and for the people does anything BUT act for the people."

This is an observation as well as a question.

Can the Federal government actually tax a corporation? Or, when it does, is it really not taxing all citizens that use the corporations product. Example would be how can XOM be taxed?

XOM would just regard the tax as another Cost of Doing Business otherwise known as Cost of Goods Sold. The average citizen would not even know they are paying the federal tax imposed on XOM. Thus no political discomfort. This seems to be just another way for the federal government to tax its citizens, many of which can not afford higher gasoline prices, and allow the politicians to get points with the citizenry for taxing that nasty corporation. The tax is passed through. The corporation is in business to make money for its shareholders. Now this would be different if a State taxed a corporation because only the State and its citizens would benefit at the cost to all purchasing the product of the corporation, although it would still be passed through to all.

It seems it would be more prudent to tax the shareholders, the major ones in particular, who are the direct beneficiaries of the profit which includes the Cost of Goods Sold, ie; the federal tax. All tax loopholes for highly compensated executives should be under scrutiny and eliminated, as well as with shareholders.

In simpler terms, a corporation is by definition a non-person. A corporation never went to a spa for $400,000 and enjoyed it. Politicians who stand up to tax a corporation in essence are perpetuating a scam.

Only people and their incomes or inflow can be taxed without pass through and even then they may insist that the corporation act in their benefit and raise prices.

JMHO, comments welcome, willing to learn.

2nd

look like time to buy china
Previous bear markets:
Measured by the Shanghai Composite, here is a list of previous declines from the year the market topped to how much it fell:

1992 — 72%
1993 — 77%
1994 — 49%
2001 — 55%
2008 — 72% (so far)---no one can time the bottom

Forget China. Now's the time to buy OUR market.
If it's going up, that is:)

vinod- well, as you know, 10% of my portfolio is in China, another 5% in India, and I'm fully invested, so there are really no funds to trade with...when the DJIA breaches 10000, I'll reconsider my trading options...

2nd
I do not have China or India in my selection but
Plan to add IBN/CAF this week.
I agree with Shark_attack that our market will take off.
I heard that we will have wild swing from Wednesday to Friday and in end will be higher
Also suggested to me to buy Tech and financial and avoid metal and energy related stock

Wavesmash,

Interesting you should mention Delphi, one of my poster boys for poor citizenship and winner of myUgly American award in 2003.

The April 14, 2003 Wall St. Journal published, "The Boss's Pay," in a special insert. Delphi's CEO, J.T. Battenburg lll, received Direct compensation of $6,745,000 that year, stock ownership of $25,042,000.

Delphi got a special mentioned in the book, "Who will tell the people?" by Richard Greider.

It seems Delphi had set up a new, grand facility in Mexico employing many citizens of that country (far cheaper than those Americans whose jobs were lost), but when the mayor of the nearby village — where most of these workers were now living without sewage facilities and very little access to fresh water — asked for assistance from Delphi, he was told not to press it or they would simply walk away and use the still cheaper labor in China.

I suppose we could blame their move to Old Mexico on too much regulation here in the States Regulations which took decades and generations to establish, like OSHA, EPA, Workman's Comp, or even the Health Dept., since we do seem to prefer clean water and a sanitation system.

I blame it on the opportunity for top management like Mr. Battenburg doing everything possible to hike the price of his stock options. In short — greed!

Now we are all subject to imported (the cheaper consumer goods we were pronmised) things which are contaminated due to the lack of regulations in those countries we rushed to.

Things like pet food, baby food, toys, prescription drugs and who knows what other threats we may be importing with only 1% inspection?

We do have other regulations protecting us from driving without a seat belt, eating too many saturated fats — you know, those things we all have lost so much sleep over.

I suggest as a test of who may be a true believer in self-regulation — Let's have a show of hands... how many want to do away with the police and fire departments? They are SO regulation oriented —let's just self regulate these things.

CP,

Ok, I see your point. I'm sure this has become a true art form.

Back in the 1970s when OSHA was the hot new regulation I benefitted indirectly due to the many products one of my clients produced to aid compliance. As far as I know they didn't lobby for this safety act, but it would surprise me if no one did.

Haven't read any comments following up on Bill's points on "watching TCK this week". Up 11.5% on above average volume today. Am I the only one holding this? Sure has felt like it the last couple of weeks :(

Mackinaw:

Yeah, saw the comment on TCK...wish I stayed long today...just did a couple of scalps. :(

Spot and Robbie Fields,

WADR, I suggest you go back to my so called inflammatory post and note apart from the first sentence and final paragraph everything posted is a quote from the source (refer "text""). Ingenious writing is not an attribute I can claim in this regard. The newsletter from which the quote is pulled goes mostly to Europeans so useful for you to see what the other side of the world contemplates. I shall leave it there.

@ Grym
U.S. vehicle manufacturers are "self" regulated through UAW and Teamster bosses ... at least those that don't disappear. EPA regulates CAFE regs and the Big Three don't adhere. Congress is bought and sold by Asian manufacturers who do, by the way, adhere to CAFE regs and have set up strategic assembly plant locations throughout U.S. (jobs in key congressional districts) while avoiding UAW hot spots (Detroit). You think a Democratic congressman is going to point a finger at CAFE failures by those building sport utes and still get their bloc union vote? I don't think so ...

@ Wavesmash
Thanks for the links re: Delphi. If Delphi's debt is to roll by end of year after several extensions, expect GM to consolidate Delphi debt along with Cerberus deal for Chrysler, sans GMAC, and file for bankruptcy or work a bailout deal before the Delphi judge mucks it up. What is GM's alternative? The game is up.

On a well known bullion dealer website, it's clear that anything resembling gold bullion is, and has for a while been, completely "Out of Stock".

All these are unobtainable through their site:

US Gold Bullion Eagle (1/2 Oz)

US Gold Bullion Eagle (1/4 Oz)

US Buffalo Proof 1 Oz Gold-Box & Certificate

US Eagle Proof 1 Oz Gold-Box & Certificate

Austrian Philharmonic Gold Bullion (1 Oz)

Australian Kangaroo Gold Bullion (1 Oz)

South African Gold Bullion Krugerrand (1 Oz)

1 Oz Gold Bullion Bar - Pamp Suisse With Cert

10 Oz Gold Bar - Pamp Suisse With Cert

Austrian/Hungarian 100 Corona (0.98 Gold Oz)

Chinese Panda (1 Gold Oz)

What's more the website is offering significantly over spot price, to buy.

As a punter looking to buy as close to spot as possible, your only real choice now is a "Kilo" bar. This trend began with the smaller coins, then moved up to include the smaller bars. Are the Kilo bars next?

This has occured only since the gold price peaked and appears to be intensifying at the same time as the price is now falling.

vinod- our market may be ready to take off...i would also consider taking off all positions once everyone is on board, as that would be the most likely time for a retest of the low...

I recommend that anyone interested in this election read the following. I did not write any of what follows. My mother sent it to me. My cousin may, or may not have been one of the authors. I will ask him if he wrote any of it.

What follows is an email written by "The Blue States" and a rejoinder to that email written by "The Red States."

I know it is long, but it really is worth reading for the insight.

And so it begins:

Dear Red States:

If you manage to steal this election, too, we've decided we're leaving. We intend to form our own country, and we're taking the other Blue States with us.

In case you aren't aware, that includes California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, and, of course, the entire Northeast. We believe this split will be beneficial to the nation, and especially to the people of the new country of: New California.

To sum up briefly: You get Texas, Oklahoma, and all the slave states. We get stem cell research and all the best beaches. We get the Statue of Liberty and the New England foliage. You get Dollywood and Branson.

We get Intel and Microsoft. You get WorldCom and Enron.

We get Harvard, Yale, and Princeton. You get Ole' Miss, Bob Jones University, and Clemson.

We get 85% of America's venture capital and entrepreneurs. You get all of Alabama.

We get two-thirds of the tax revenue, you get to make the red states pay their fair share.

Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22% lower than the Christian Coalition's, we get more intact families. You get more single moms.

Please be aware that Nuevo California will be pro-choice and anti-war, and we're going to want all our citizens back from Iraq at once. If you need people to fight, ask your evangelicals. We sincerely do wish you success in Iraq, and hope that the WMDs turn up, but we're no longer willing to spend our resources in Bush's Quagmire.

With the Blue States in hand, we will have firm control of 80% of the country's fresh water (wow, good luck without that!) more than 90% of the pineapple and lettuce, 92% of the nation's fresh fruit (wow, that one too!), 95% of America's quality wines, 90% of all cheese, 90% of the high tech industry, 95% of the corn and soybeans (thanks Iowa!), most of the U.S. low-sulfur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and condors, all the Ivy and Seven Sister schools plus Cal Tech, UCLA, Berkeley and MIT.

With the Red States, on the other hand, you will have to cope with 88% of all obese Americans (and their projected health care costs), 92% of all U.S. mosquitoes, nearly 100% of the tornadoes, 90% of the hurricanes, virtually 100% of all televangelists, and Rush Limbaugh. But, luckily for you, you'll have University of Georgia football! (Go Bulldogs!)

We get Hollywood, Yosemite, and New York City (Go Yankees!)

Additionally, 38% of those in the Red states believe Jonah actually lived inside the whale, 62% believe life is sacred unless we're discussing the war, the death penalty, or gun laws, 44% say that evolution is only a theory, 53% that Saddam was involved in 9/11, and 61% of you silly citizens believe you are people with "higher morals" then we "lefties!" wow. life is really funny!

Finally, we're taking the good pot, too. You can have the dirt weed they grow in Mexico.

Peace out,

--The Blue States

Dear Blue States:

Well, imagine our relief that you’ve decided to secede and form some sort of bathing-optional commune headquartered in California. The money we'll save in aspirin, now that we won’t have headaches from listening to your interminable whining, will be worth it to us alone.

We'll finally be rid of you lazy, moping, latte-sucking Streisand fans now that you're actually going to follow through--for once--on your promise to finally get off your butts and leave, as so many of you claimed you would every election cycle and then chickened out of actually doing. (Yeah, we’re looking at you, Alec Baldwin.)

But not so fast. You don’t get to take all the Blue States with you--just the Blue parts.

We hate to break it to you, but your Blue States aren’t actually "blue." Mostly, they’re states full of Red counties with pockets of Blue urban blight in them, who vote Democratic in such numbers that if the same results came out of a Third World country—which, come to think of it, many of the "Blue" counties pretty much are—we’d think it was fraud and send some election observers from the UN.

Even California is pretty much a Red State: Bush won 35 out of 58 counties, while Kerry won LA and San Francisco. You want 'em? we certainly won’t fight you for them but you're going to have to found New California without 35 of your most beautiful counties and your second-largest city. Sorry about that.

Nationally, Bush won over 2.5 million square miles of U.S. counties (and an extra three and a half million votes, but we won't rub that in.) Kerry won less than 600,000 square miles--meaning that in most states he was popular downtown and pretty much nowhere else. In other words, your guy won the places that people like him would get shot if he walked through them at night. Our guy won every place else.

So, the bottom line is that you don't get the Blue States. Those states have lots of towns and counties that would rather blow their dams and flood themselves out of existence rather than go with you. No, instead, you get the Blue Cities.

But wait…we really feel we owe you full disclosure on this exchange. This might come as an unpleasant surprise, but you don’t actually get the lower divorce and single-motherhood rates and all that other good stuff you think you're going to snag. Those are the conditions that are actually found out in the Red counties—not in the Blue cities, and you can't have them.

Instead you get the urban single moms, not the soccer moms; the drug addicts, not the doctors; the waiters, not the chefs. You get the fine service you've come to expect from the brutal and corrupt inner-city police departments. You get the abysmal literacy rates and schools that are more dangerous than most prisons. All in all, you get to take with you a public sector in most cities so unmanageable they make Mogadishu seem like a tidily run little municipality by comparison.

You get the labor union shakedown artists, "teachers" who can’t pass tests in their own subject, and city government leaders for whom graft, racial spoils systems, and outright theft are a way of life. They’re all very enthusiastic Blue voters, as you know, and we’re sure they’ll stampede their way to New California to start draining your wallets, wrecking your schools, and in general making a mess of your lives.

(And don't come complaining back to us when socialist central planning does for New California what it did for garden spots like East Berlin and Pyongyang. We're putting a strict visa system into place once you all go.)

We, on the other hand, get those Red city suburbs and rural districts. You know, the ones with the good schools, the high property values, the quiet streets and the sheriffs and cops who don’t need to walk around armored up like they’re about to storm the Sunni Triangle.

Oh and don’t concern yourself with our agricultural capacity after all, they don't call it "the breadbasket" for nothin'. We’ll keep right on producing the vast majority of wheat, corn, oats, rye, potatoes, soybeans, beef, chicken and pork.

We’ve always preferred a nice, unpretentious, frosty mug of brew anyway and hey, maybe you can make a salad with those pineapples, stem cells, and lettuce.

And don't even think about keeping the National Parks, the wide open spaces, all those water resources, and all the rest of America's natural splendor, since those are all pretty much located in Red counties.

Hell, we even get most of Oregon and Washington .ain’t it ironic? You get the urban liberals in Portland and Seattle and their friends in important social organizations (like, say, drug-running street gangs) and we get the rest of the Northwest.

Ok by us; we’d be fools not to take you up on it.

Here’s how it will work; all of you Blue whiners, please feel free to look at a map of the electoral results county by county in each state, and take the people with you who’ve made it clear they’d like to go.

That means you get places like downtown Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and we get to keep the rest of beautiful Pennsylvania, thanks.

You get to administer bloated public services to the violent, drug-addled, gunslinging populations of delightful inner-city sinkholes of poverty and corruption such as Miami, St. Louis,Atlanta and the ever-popular District of Columbia--which has been governed by liberals (and the occasional crackhead) for so long and so incompetently that any semblance of order has broken down (beyond the carefully guarded borders of your Georgetown bistros, natch) to the point where even the mayor once asked the President to have the city patrolled by National Guardsmen.

Lucky you, it's all yours--enjoy it in good health, and don’t forget to wear your Kevlar...Blue "voters" up there in Northeast DC tend to be jumpy on the ol' trigger finger.

In fact, all around our great nation, you get to keep all the Blue voters who’ve made urban war zones like downtown Detroit--a Blue bastion, of course--the proud showplaces they are today.

We get the rest of Blue states like Michigan and Wisconsin and Illinois and...well, frankly, just about every state in the Union with the exception of Hawaii and New England--and even there, we’ll just hang on to a couple of chunks of New Hampshire and Connecticut.

You’re especially more than welcome to Rhode Island, which will immediately set up some sort of money-laundering scheme and bilk the rest of you once it has been incorporated into whatever sort of muddle-headed utopia you’re trying to create.

The former mayor of Providence should be out of Federal prison in time to join your Politburo and help you get things set up--for a small consulting fee, of course

If you would please, take another look at the list of best beaches and notice what color states they are in. We'll miss the Hawaiian beaches, but since long stretches of coastline from New Jersey down to Florida and yes, even in Southern California (including San Diego, thanks) are actually in Red counties, we'll be fine.

Sure, we get the rednecks and holy rollers. But since you're apparently willing to trade them for the gangs and psychopaths terrorizing your Blue cities, what can we say? You want the Crips and the Bloods in low riders raking your streets with automatic gunfire, and you're offering us Bubba heading off to church in his pickup?

Hey, a deal's a deal. Done.

True, you also get Manhattan, but darn the luck, you have to take the rest of the city, including the Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn too, as well as Long Island, which is enough to almost make us feel sorry for you all out there in New California. (Almost.)

For our part, we’ll take most of the rest of gorgeous New York State, although you get the scam artists who infest the legislature in Albany.

And since for some unfathomable reason you actually want Elliot Spitzer, we’ll buy his plane ticket as a gesture of goodwill.

So that’s the deal. You get the cities, with all the crime, crack mommies, and corruption you can stand.

And sure, you get many of the elite colleges too, with the professors who think that terrorists in Fallujah are freedom fighters and that the people who worked in the Twin Towers on 9/11 were no better than Nazis—forgive us for not lamenting over this loss.

We get the suburbs, the countryside, and all the other beautiful places that remain unspoiled by liberal hypocrisy and addle-brained social experimentation.

And we'd like a favor, too: please keep your sky-high tax and crime rates, since we're happy to have the corporations and jobs that continue to flee your Blue cities into our Red counties. It's much appreciated, since our unemployment rates, to say nothing of our crime, single-parenting, and illiteracy rates, are far lower than yours.

Oh, and one last thing. We get the U.S. military, too. Did we mention that part? (You may have forgotten that they're volunteers, and most are happy Red state voters.)

Not to worry, though, since we’re sure that Islamic fundamentalist terrorists will be more than happy to reach an accommodation with a society that embraces radical feminism, gay marriage, gun control, hostility to organized religion of any kind, and Salman Rushdie. Good luck with that.

But one day when some misogynist Saudi freak--who no doubt will sneak into your country by strolling over the northern border after a few years sucking on the Canadian welfare system you all admire so much--blows up a couple kilos of plutonium on Sunset Boulevard, go send Sean Penn to ask the French for help. We’ll be busy that day.

Sincerely,

The Red States

PS: You can keep the marijuana. You're going to need it, since selling it is one of the last stable industries left in Blue counties.

@valleyrat

Goldbugs should get metal detectors and rattlesnake boots and head for the Arizona desert for some prospecting since they never could find coins at anything close to spot price of a big bar.

vinod (OT)- had the chance to watch 'Salaam Bombay' (1988) again last weekend...looks like Nana Patekar's career really took off after that film..

Dr.

Kruggerands came close, not that long ago.

VR

remember McCain's guaranteed win?

http://tinyurl.com/6hlyez

i guarantee Obama wins, and it won't be no squeaker (apologies to CP for the double negative)...

Holding Teck. Also Qua.to That's my metals portfolio. Trying to stay in Canadian dollars right now, because don't know how it will behave vs USD. I've started studying Horizons Beta Pro for hedged exposure.
Holding HNU.to, and looking at HQU.to and HSU.to as per Vinod comment. and maybe HFU.to

i also see no reason why Paulson would try to sell the market down on an Obama win...unlike the bailout vote, the election outcome should be irrelevant to him...

2nd
Planning to visit china next year, I always dream about it and look like it may happen this time. Even I haven’t seen all of India. Only part I have seen of India is west near Bombay.
But we are trying to go to china, take big train ride and go to Tibet from there cross border into Nepal and from there go to India from there. Back to USA

ha, Westcoaster,

I have TCK - that's ALL my metals portfolio. But since mid-last week I have been contemplating adding QUA.to. Dabbled in it earlier this year and got burned but now it looks pretty timely.

Vinod,

I have dreamed about taking that train to Tibet for awhile. Could have done it this summer on a teaching assignment, but didn't. I think I will jump at the opportunity next summer.

vinod- those are ambitious travel plans...needless to say, hope you/yours are already vaccinated against hepatitis A/B...rails are probably the way to 'see it all.'

UBS on metals prices:

“The revised UBS commodity price outlook reflects an extended recessionary scenario with base metal prices in both 2009/2010 that are mostly below the marginal industry costs and current spot prices,” the investment bank said in a report. “If such a recessionary scenario were to unfold, we believe that almost all North American mining companies could experience challenges to liquidity and/or business continuity."

http://tinyurl.com/55slqe

A daunting vision! -

You could well ask: "what do they know?" having nearly blown up their bank on toxic US securities. The analyst would probably respond that he's just the in-house academic, and doesn't run the place.

Bill please delete the posts that are being held back for your approval. Seems that if there are more than 1 url in the post it gets blocked. I'll put them up 1 by 1.

Here's the first:

http://tinyurl.com/6cosn6

2nd,

http://tinyurl.com/5br56d

3rd,

http://tinyurl.com/6bojdq

4th,

http://tinyurl.com/6764zq

Grym,

Saw firsthand what lack of "regulation" does to a country. I visited China a couple of years ago. Was afraid to breathe, much less drink the water. It was still incredible to see a culture and history that is thousands of years old.

Walking into a PLA-sponsored museum was one of the most memorable parts of my trip (other than Bill Clinton's Great Wall or Starbucks Forbidden City). Seeing all of the original "molds" of sculptures and art that has been cloned into oblivion in the local flea markets.... while being escorted around by machine-gun toting guards. Not an experience to miss!

The stories coming out about tained milk and lead are just drops in the bucket. But it's not just China. I feel the same way driving through parts of Ohio or Pennsylvania. Google superfund.

"Regulation" said the Chinese manufacturers need more nutrition in milk, but costs dictated that the protein comes from something that games the protein meter rather than anything of nutritional value. Costs always seem to win out in the end, unless there is enough public or corporate outcry to constitute change, or legislation that could affect costs.

I would think that many public companies have public agendas (fundamentals, financial ratings, management incentives) that conflict with public moral values and interests.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_hazard

One of my favourites was this one on Mitsubishi.
Ford wasn't the only one trying to cover up exploding bumpers. It's a good thing Nader doesn't speak Japanese.

"The company is alleged to have hidden 64,000 customer complaints about its vehicles dating back more than two decades.

The cache of complaints was found hidden in a company locker room by government inspectors."

http://tinyurl.com/63k3ap

A locker room? Where else do you keep your dirty laundry? :)

I had to complain for 2 years before a certain Korean car maker recalled my car because the seatbelt kept getting stuck. Apparently stuck seatbelt was not a safety issue and I was "putting it on wrong." lol.

One piece of plastic and a screw solved the problem.

Was much less trouble than the time when the throttle accelerator got stuck on the highway. I found out the max speed limit on the car was 210km/h!

Good thing it was a Sunday.

I would not want to see the recalls that will occur in the "flying car" generation...

"However, in response to tightening financial markets, Silver Wheaton is making a healthy balance sheet and the repayment of debt its first priorities in the immediate future."

http://tinyurl.com/6grse8

RE UBS on miners
A rather chilling report Jock. How much can we trust this guy? Is this what happened to the miners thru the long bear in commodities in the 80's and 90's?

Sounds like some of are discovering the difference between genuine regulation and enterprise-sponsored governmental regulation. ;)

RE UBS on metals
They don't mention their position on the USD$ and they assume inflation will continue to decline. I personally believe just the opposite will happen when Ben starts printing...

Grym - Ya got your eye on the ball ready for the big move tomorrow? Please stay seated while the train is in motion!

[Bill Cara note:

Wow! You people are good tonight.]

Westcoaster - to trust UBS base metals analyst?

Who knows? Just one perspective of many. What happened to miners in the 80s and 90s? I'm not aware of a long-standing base metals index.

For PM's, check XAU in bigcharts.com selecting "all data" long wide trading range from '84 through '99 between roughly 50 and 150, before touching down at 45, then rising to 200 this decade, and now plunging to 80.

Whiplash!

Clinton's Great Wall.

http://tinyurl.com/6mezhm

Amazing to see...

Great Wall Motors.

Is GW the next GM?

http://tinyurl.com/6pqbfg

Or is Chery the next Chevy?

http://tinyurl.com/5j4lqo

No more Starbucks Forbidden City. (coffee was too expensive anyway...)

http://tinyurl.com/5flpfz

"China's drive into U.S. car market stalls
An ambitious bid to conquer Detroit and become a global car empire faces a great wall of skepticism. "

http://tinyurl.com/6rdx5g

Please, no more plays on words...

"Meanwhile, BYD, the world's largest maker of cell phone batteries and China's second-largest independent carmaker, has developed a battery-powered concept car, the F3e, and recently unveiled an electric crossover, the E6, that it hopes to export soon. The plan has one high-profile booster: Warren Buffett, whose MidAmerican Energy bought 225 million shares of BYD in September. "

Playing the Buffett card again? Guess he won't be looking for warrants and dividends from a GM stock purchase.

hate to sound like a larker but im seeing nothing but negative technical action in gold, spot hitting 721 quickly and im getting the feeling we will see a plunge tommorow in spot gold, remember my past references to my nightmare of 2 weeks ago in which i was watching BNN and kevin O'leary was cheering "660 gold" saying how great it was because it meant stability was back in the markets.

i think we may see this sooner than later, golds price action is very indicative of a plunge. but gold is elusive and has made sudden and dramatic runs upwards when things looked bleak. im not discounting it but im moved to a position to benefit either way. im starting to loose my footing with virtually evry gold bug analyst out there because they have almost entirely been proven wrong on all counts but refuse to admit it.

the question is, how low does gold go before the rest of the pro-gold camp stops beliveing that all this money printing will be "inflationary" at some point before they get stopped out?

good luck. holding fast!!

We're here learning and doing the best we can.

This is the most bullish I've ever seen Hussman. A 'must read' IMO (you can skip first section on his fund distributions)

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc081103.htm

Pass one of those Billy beers over here, that would hit the spot right about now.

I am a firm believer in one thing. Go Bulldogs!

BH,

Who wudda thought that GS still had the cash to pay Covello big bucks for that analysis leading to the upgrade for SNDK? A google of "Sandisk" and a search on SNDK at billcara.com would have given up this "in- depth analysis" ( and more ) in about 20 minutes or less. I stopped reading the rubbish coming from brokers when I started doing my own DD, and recommend that others do the same. The info that I can't get or don't have will never be given to me by GS or any other broker because I am just a meal ticket to them.

dr cosa,

I can't think of any goldbug analyst that is bullish short term. Everyone is bullish for 6 months or a year or a few years out, but none of them are positive short term. It seems to be mostly technical in nature (ie EW or downtrend), but some based on a forecast for more dollar strength, or more Euro weakness.

Its just seems odd to me that no one is positive in the face of what I see as considerable immediate supply/demand reasons for it to rise.

A very interesting article on whether you can trust government bonds and how likely it is that our government will default on its bonds. Talks about "risk free return" as the bedrock of measuring the risk of all debt and how this bedrock is itself in trouble. From Moneyweek, a British publication. There daily email is free and very worthwhile.

http://tinyurl.com/5axrbe

Dr. Cosa,

I always read your posts and find them very enlightening. However, I'm wondering if now is the time to predict that gold is going lower. I've noticed that once a trend is established, people tend to predict more of the same, only worse (or better, as the case may be). For instance, when oil was $150 a barrel, there were predictions that it would go to $200 that seemed highly plausible. I've also noticed that the junior goldminers seem to be turning around, which is strange in light of bullion dropping--likewise, my silver junior producers are picking up. I don't believe we are out of the woods yet on the credit market crisis. I just read that people have put more debt on their credit cards since September than had been put on for the previous year (today's Moneyweek email). Then there is the possible default on sovereign debt in the article I posted above. At the end of this article, the author recommends gold as a safe haven for this eventuality. Given the amount of pessimism about gold right now, perhaps its time to buy bullion?

NAz up 3%, gold up less than 1% must be all that DEBT DEBT buying IPODS and selling GOLD,

HA!

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

CHRW - Coverage Initiated with a Buy @ Citigroup

putting in limit orders for DXD, EEV, FXP

Cara 100 Update:

BBBY - Price Target Lowered from $27 to $22.75 @ Friedman Billings

long FXP at 81

todays gold action shows the madness,

stocks on the overnight/asia are up meaning the miners will likely be up on the day, but gold after having spiked up overnight is moving back down before market open. it seems to happen so often im surprised when gold doesnt crater into the open.

imho as per prior bearish remarks last night about gold, we need to see gold hold some gains through the session and not simply crater into the trading day before having some jumps overnight. this isnt exactly the stuff of bull markets to watch every gain in gold get sucked back in half the time it took to go up.

if gold begins moving strong into the open and closes stronger, then a sea change may be at hand.

gartman is even noting some interest in large cap miners over the metal, so perhaps a period of reverse performance is being anticipated by some market observers, but gold itself needs to secure some gains going forward before we can really see any dramatic rise in PM stocks.

its 8:20, lets see if gold can hold some of its gains into the market open.

considering the market is telling us Obama is a winner, Alt-Energy [solar] is catching bids, yesterday and this AM.

Long: SOLF

Health insurance: A rigged game with little alternative.

Because I was a one-person, self-employed person, I always maintained a very high deduclible amount to keep premiums low. This meant I was self-insured for all medical and dental checkups, tests, or other procedures below $10,000 in any given year for a family of four.

Periodically I would get a call from my agent or a letter from the insurer announcing a new, lower cost plan which I could switch into to save money. Often this would happen when the plan I was in was experiencing a rate increase.

It was not rocket science to figure it out, but the extreme effect didn't hit me until I had a claim after decades of paying. Then, in 2000 I needed "elective" surgery and could no longer put it off until Medicare coverage. At some point I had been informed of a $2,500 co-pay being added — this meant I paid $12,500 of a
$14,000 bill. Within less than three years my premiums increased 457%.

Appeals to the State Insurance Board, letters to my representatives, state and national, brought the reply that my costs were high because I was "...in a group which needs more medical care."

Over the years what they had done (remember the earlier offers to switch) was distill out those not filing claims or not likely to and left all who were likely (read older) so they could legally raise the remaining policy holders premiums as a group.

There were two choices: 1. buy from another company 2. shut up and pay each new, higher premium

After trying eight other companies which would exclude my wife's and my "pre-existing conditions" from coverage for at least a year, I switched us — chancing my less serious problems (Medicare was less than a year away for me), but insuring her heart condition on the old policy and accepting the one-year exclusion on her new policy.

The best thing in my case was being accepted by the VA (for my meds). I had never considered my 6-year non-combat military service would qualify me for any benefits, but it did. I'm at the back of the line — Medal of Honor guys appropriately at the front.

The influence of the insurance lobby is totally disgusting.

To all the US citizens amongst the community: get out and VOTE!

Whoever you choose, vote please!

dr. cosa,

We are seeing less physical dumping on the TOCOM and the LME for a day. Usually in these circumstances when the LME closes for the day around 11:00 am EDT, there is a short selling spree, so the price moves a few bucks.

Bullion has been treated like any other commodity in the crash, so its not surprising that with oil price declines, its been dragged along. I presume that more than a few hedge funds which had purchased bullion and levered up against it to parry into the oil trade had collapsed with the oil price rout.

It has become a fervent evangelical belief that we are at peak oil, and that the oil price will save us. Oil had been treated as if it were currency. Much of the money being lost on the markets is a result of the oil price crash.

We have also seen dollar demand increase as the notional value of derivatives in the corporate sector are marked to market whether people want it or not.

So what we should be looking for is a continued oil price crash, and some signs that the dollar is under less demand if we are to have a firmer bullion market for the short term. A decline of the Yen would bolster the bullion trade.

It comes as a bit of a surprise to see gold mines closing in Zimbabwe, since you can only sell the gold to the central bank in exchange for currency. I am certain that some of the restrictions held to the gold trade in the west are exactly similar to those conditions as in Africa, and that hyperinflation would destroy the traditional role of bullion as a store of value.

Unless gold is declared a monetary instrument and regarded as foreign currency, then the hyperinflationary bailouts around the world will destroy the gold trade.

long TWM 90.35

It's a New Day in America. Finally, a president capable of doing well on a standardized test!

And to all you Republicans out there, this wouldn't be happening if your leadership hadn't been incompetent.

Alrighty sharkie, come back over here with your peeps.....we don't want to pick any fights.
We all remember elections not going the way we thought they should, let's have some sportsmanship and humility. Everyone knows the citizenry didn't keep a handle on the current Destroyer in Chief. Hopefully we have all learned a big lesson.

Rest assured I'm cheering the end of this mess with you.

I hope all is well with your mom.

Sentiment: Mild Shark flag, bsi87 looking short, election day giddyness.....beware, could be market correction/sell off coming.

Long yamana here, was long ambac on a stupid trade i made money on anyway