It has become exceeding difficult, if not impossible, to keep separate our biases as taxpayers and consumers and just plain people who struggle for a better life with that of our role as manager of our investments. But, we must because, in effect, these are personal conflicts of interest; something I say has been destroying society.

This week, despite the loss of ten percent of equity in the average portfolio in the span of five days, I wish to reiterate my belief that equity markets are in a cycle bottoming phase and that a new Bull cycle has commenced. Most of you, however, can only see that the trend has not yet turned from negative to positive. Moreover, you think the trend is worsening.

All I can do, then, is to ask you to keep an open mind; to approach your role as personal portfolio manager with an independent and objective mind-set.

Part of the difficulty we all face is that mass communications today are being effectively branded; even legislation. Scriptwriters in Washington and New York have sold us a “$700 billion rescue package”. In their struggle to pass legislation that will benefit certain parties let’s say more than others, the headlines and stories stuck to the notional concept of $700 billion for rescuing us from economic circumstances. Yet, in our minds we know that the true figure – one that includes financial guarantees, related spending, funding of agencies like FDIC, and the like, is going to be at least more than double that $700 billion.

Within the disinformation and misinformation we are bombarded with, however, there are things going on that, as traders, we cannot ignore.

Fundamental arguments that are being made today are completely opposite to those made by the same people just two or three weeks ago. Take the peak oil theory, for instance. Analysts who pushed that particular story are now saying the world has too much oil for the present state of the economy.

We know that fear sells – even more so than greed. What is happening then is that the people’s emotions are being played by those who are control of the capital markets.

Having worked both sell-side and buy-side at a high level, I understand what the market is. By way of explaining it simply, I often say that the market is a game that plays people rather than the other way around. In a similar vein, I say that stocks are sold and not bought.

Now I spend my time helping educate and inform the people about capital markets in order to facilitate their taking control. My basic message is that the owners of capital need to take control of their wealth and to stay away from debt, which is the only path to financial independence.

Equity markets complete their Bull and Bear cycles with increased volatility, which is the case today. Bull cycles end when the actors run out of cash needed to push prices higher. Bear cycles end because cash holdings build up to very high levels amid the growing opportunities to buy value.

Presently the latter situation envelops the market. There are at least $4 trillion in cash now on the sidelines plus a couple trillion more in newly printed fiat money from the treasuries of governments around the world. There is sufficient cash to feed the Bull.

All we are waiting for is a decision by those in control of this market for the buying to begin. Yes, the market today is being controlled not by the people but by central bankers and finance ministers by way of recent decisions to put the people of today into more debt to be repaid, they hope, by future generations. This strategy is called reflation.

Reflation will work today, but will result in problems with more inflation and financial failures tomorrow. By tomorrow I mean in probably two, three or four years.

For trading discussion, inflation means the destruction of paper wealth faster than the creation of real wealth in the form of newly produced hard assets like real property improvement and the mining of gold and other metals and minerals. To be countered and defeated, higher interest rates are required.

As we all know that in many countries the present rate of real property foreclosures is skyrocketing, which threatens to put the domestic and regional economy into severe recession and possible depression, governments around the world need the time to legislate relief packages for families who are losing their homes. As the use of real property as a home is quite different than the investment in real property for financial returns, government is saddled with the difficulty, if not the impossibility, of finding a solution that eliminates (for a period of time) the equity in real property but at the same time permits families to stay in their homes. That legislation, at least in the US, will take at a year or more in the making.

Important to traders of US capital markets is the fact that legislators will return in January to start addressing this crucial issue. There may also be interim relief to stave the crisis from deepening.

The credit ring among bankers will be saved with (i) immediate guarantees of inter-bank loans, and (ii) by a flood of mergers and acquisitions among banks that will mask, for a time, the issues many of them face with bad assets. In time, these assets will be properly marked to market, but in an unstable environment the hastily constructed mark-to-market regulations ought to be withdrawn. Similarly, the short-sale rule applied to financial services companies and then extended to many other industries and individual companies needs also to be rescinded asap.

The capital markets require short selling as a process that keeps markets honest as a facilitator of value discovery. Regulators, instead, must re-focus on the criminals who have abused the legitimate practice of short selling. Without the right to short in capital markets, hedge funds, which the markets need for liquidity reasons, will be put out of business. That would lead to increasing manipulation, which the owners of capital can ill afford.

This weekend there are high level conferences by international heads of state, finance ministers and central bankers to try to work out temporary solutions to the global credit crisis. America has taken its bitter medicine first. Humungous Bank & Broker is waiting for the others to follow before they will re-start inter-bank lending at the levels required by credit markets.

The timing of such agreements will be linked to the kick-start of the new Bull market. My point in switching from Bear to Bull is to alert you to these important events among governments and bankers. You do not want to miss the beginning of the Bull run. You have been saving cash for that purpose. Now is the time to be thinking of using it.

This past week I gave you some equity ideas – 36 stocks of high quality companies – some more conservative than others. I avoided debt market ideas because I believe that interest rates will have to lift significantly to help pay down the cost of the reflation strategy that has been adopted, which will cause bond prices to fall. As fiat money is being printed much faster (because of the reflation policy) than economic wealth will be created – at least for a couple years, I believe that precious metals, as storehouses of value, will lift in price a lot.

Interestingly, as the $USD gains strength and interest rates rise relatively faster in the US than in other countries where rates are higher, I believe that precious metal prices will also rise. Gold, for example, may be denominated in $USD, but it is still a hedge against fiat money depreciation which will happen in each country until the use of the newly printed money begins to create strong economic value. At that point, traders ought to sell their gold and invest the proceeds again in equities. For now, however, I recommend 20% investment in gold and goldminers; the latter which will lift in price as their top line revenues increase. Also, with a higher gold price the economic cut-off grades for valuing reserves get smaller, which leads to the calculation of higher ore reserves, which factors into higher share prices as well.

As nobody knows when the equity market complex technically will revert from Bear to Bull – I say it has done so notionally this past two weeks – I have accordingly reserved 40% investment in short puts in the shares of select high-quality Cara 100 companies (see my list of 36). My objective is, in effect, to put in stink bids expecting that only a few are met with stock that is put to me by traders who are under duress of margin calls or other aspects of emotional or forced selling. That is a double win because (i) the stocks for some are acquired at a very low price and (ii) the remaining short puts expire worthless, which is my income while waiting for this market to become an apparent Bull.

Herewith is my list of the 36 candidates republished from October 1:

I have a list of three dozen stocks to consider buying here. Each of these companies has respectable management, financial strength, operating margins, long-term returns on shareholder capital, industry leadership positions, and good products and services. There are problems with some of them, but consider that these same problems were evident during recent times when share prices were much higher.

In order of the GICS sectors, here are the 36 companies and ticker symbols (alpha order) that I like:

Sector 10: Energy
• ECA EnCana
• IMO Imperial Oil
• SU Suncor Energy
• XOM Exxon Mobil

Sector 15: Basic Materials
• Mostly precious metals at this point [25% invested after the $USD reaches a short-term cycle peak in a couple days as the Euro/Pound sinks due to the credit market crisis that monetary authorities there must stabilize].
• ABX Barrick Gold
• DOW Dow Chemical
• GG Goldcorp Inc
• SLW Silver Wheaton

Sector 20: Industrials and Transports
• ABB ABB Limited
• BA Boeing
• GE General Electric

Sector 25: Consumer Discretionary Spending
• None at this point until the credit markets recover
• After an initial rally from an over-sold condition, most of these stocks will likely miss the first leg of the Bull and start to lift say about March 2009

Sector 30: Consumer Staples
• DEO Diageo
• KO Coca-cola
• MCD McDonalds
• PG Procter & Gamble
• WAG Walgreens
• WMT Wal-Mart

Sector 35: Consumer Healthcare
• DNA Genentech
• JNJ Johnson & Johnson

Sector 40: Financial
• Only a few at this point until the credit markets recover
• After an initial rally from an over-sold condition, most of these stocks will likely miss the first leg of the Bull and start to lift say about March 2009
• HBC HSBC Holdings [very strong in the emerging economies]
• IBKR Interactive Brokers [brokers and traders and not dealers]
• OXPS OptionsXpress Holdings [brokers and not dealers]
• RY Royal Bank of Canada [very strong in the emerging economies]

Sector 45: Technology
• CSCO Cisco Systems
• DELL Dell Inc
• GOOG Google
• IBM IBM
• INTC Intel Corp
• ORCL Oracle
• QCOM Qualcomm Inc
• RIMM Research In Motion

Sector 50: Telecom
• MICC Millicom International
• NOK Nokia Corp
• TEF Telefonica SA

Sector 55: Utilities
• CCJ Cameco [not a utility technically speaking but supplies uranium]
• EXC Exelon Corp [uranium utility]

This list is lengthy but not complete. I can think of many other high quality companies that are trading at attractive prices. I just need to remind you that cycle bottoms happen in periods of fear (and when we have cash and credit available) just like cycle tops happen in periods of greed (and when we run out of cash and credit).

You know where the world stands today. I cannot act for you, but I can tell you what I am doing for clients because this is a period of fear (and the accumulation of trillions of dollars of investable cash), and I have no problem taking action.

To repeat what I have been saying through this Bear market ending process; it pays to close your ears and to direct your full attention to prices. Trends and cycles are reversing here. This time in the market is what successful traders wait for. Carpe diem; seize the opportunity.

No matter what I say, this is a free blog among many others and many of you will choose to follow a different path. I have spoken now at length on this subject, and I must tell you I refuse to continue to debate it. That would not be good use of my time.

I leave it to you all to discuss your ideas and beliefs in the Discourse. In fact, I welcome it.

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Global Economics Review

Weekly International Economic Report .

I encourage everybody to read these reports and discuss them in the Discourse, but check the publishing date if you are looking for the latest data.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Economic Calendar.

US Personal Income and Outlays for August. Econoday reported, “The August personal income report looks good on the income side but is worrisome on the spending side. But as expected, we got good news on the inflation front. Personal income in August rebounded 0.5 percent, following a 0.6 percent drop in July. The August gain beat the consensus forecast for a 0.2 percent increase. Within personal income, the wages and salaries component posted a 0.4 percent increase in August, after advancing 0.3 percent the previous month… Spending was flat overall but there was large divergence by components. Personal consumption expenditures in August were unchanged, following a 0.1 percent uptick in July. The market had forecast a rise of 0.2 percent for personal spending. For the latest month, a spike in auto sales led to a 1.4 percent jump in durables PCEs. Weak gasoline sales pulled down nondurables, which fell 0.6 percent. Services rose a mere 0.1 percent. On the inflation front, the headline PCE price finally eased on lower energy costs. The overall index slowed to no change, following hefty gains in July and June of 0.6 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. The core PCE price index eased to 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent in July. The market had projected a core increase of 0.2 percent for the latest month.”

US Motor Vehicle Sales for September. Econoday reported: “Vehicle sales proved very weak in September, consistent with similar reports from retailers in other sectors and pointing squarely at month-to-month contraction for retail sales data to be posted at mid-month. Unit sales of North American-made vehicles fell to an annual rate of 9.4 million, down from 10.4 million in August. These results will deepen concern of third-quarter recession.”

US Construction Spending for August. Econoday reported: “Construction spending in August came in better than expected but with mixed components. Construction outlays were unchanged in August, following a decline of 1.4 percent in the prior month. The August figure was better than the market forecast for a 0.5 percent decrease. Strength in the latest month was primarily in public outlays, which rose 0.8 percent after a 1.3 percent boost in July. Residential outlays rebounded 0.3 percent after a 3.9 percent fall the prior month. But the private nonresidential component is showing new weakness, declining 0.8 percent in August, following a 1.1 percent decrease in July… Declines in the private nonresidential component were widespread. The latest subcomponent decreases were commercial, down 0.6 percent; health care, down 0.8 percent; educational, down 0.7 percent; religious, down 2.6 percent; amusement & recreation, down 2.5 percent; transportation, down 2.1 percent; communication, down 5.2 percent; power, down 1.9 percent; and manufacturing, down 0.3 percent.”

US ISM Manufacturing Index for September. Econoday stated: “The ISM manufacturing's index shows a major break down for the sector in September, falling more than 6 points to 43.5 vs. August's 49.9. A move of this degree is very rare for this index which is historically very stable. Similar moves have occurred only during extreme times, such as after September 2001 or during recessions. Money moved into safety in immediate reaction to the results with Treasury yields coming down… New orders plunged in the report, down nearly 10 points to 38.8 from 48.3 in a reading that points to sustained overall contraction in the months ahead. Production also showed a severe decline, down more than 10 points to 40.8. Employment fell to 41.8 vs. 49.7 and points to more trouble for factory payrolls in Friday's jobs report. Prices paid confirms the lack of demand, showing very little pressure at 53.5 vs. 77.0. Backlog showed a severe decline as did inventories… The only positive reading in the report is export orders which came in at 52.0, firm but nevertheless down 5 points in the month. Hurricanes certainly affected results as did the credit crisis. Today's results are certain to deepen talk of recession.”

US Employment Report for September. Econoday stated: “The September jobs report was quite gloomy with payroll losses sharply exceeding expectations. But markets had curious reactions. Nonfarm payroll employment in September dropped another 159,000, following a decrease of 73,000 in August and a decline of 67,000 in July. Thus far, payroll jobs have fallen every month of 2008. The September drop in jobs was worse than the consensus forecast for a 100,000 decrease. The September fall was the worst since the 212,000 drop in March 2003… The latest job declines were widespread. Manufacturing and construction jobs fell by 51,000 and 35,000, respectively. Rounding out the goods-producing sector, natural resources & mining rose 9,000 in September. Service-providing jobs declined 82,000 after falling 16,000 in August… Within service-providing industries, weakness was led by a 40,000 drop in retail trade and a 27,000 decline in professional & business services. Also falling were financial activities, transportation & warehousing, wholesale trade, information, and leisure & hospitality. On the positive side, education & health services advanced 25,000. Also posting modest gains were government and also other services… Average weekly hours were slipped to 33.6 hours in September from 33.7 hours in August… On a year-on-year basis, nonfarm payroll employment declined to down 0.2 percent in September from down 0.1 percent in August… On the inflation front, average hourly earnings eased to a 0.2 percent rise in September, following a 0.4 percent gain the month before. The market had projected a 0.3 percent increase… Turning to the household survey, the civilian unemployment rate held steady at 6.1 percent in September and matched the consensus projection for no change… The September employment report was quite negative. But markets reacted in an unexpected manner. Equity futures rose and interest rates firmed. The report appears to be seen as a clincher for the U.S. House of Representatives to pass legislation to rescue the financial system. Some also see the Fed as more likely to cut interest rates.”

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for September. Econoday stated: “In complete contrast with the manufacturing report, ISM's non-manufacturing report shows steady conditions with the headline composite index little changed, down only 4 tenths to a 50.2 reading that is virtually at the dead-even 50 level. In other words conditions were dead flat in both September and August -- good news that may limit conclusions that the economy is in recession. Most sub-indexes hardly moved including prices paid which posted a record plunge in Wednesday's report on the manufacturing side. The discrepancy may reflect manufacturers' greater use of energy. New orders rose slightly to just over 50 though backlog orders did slip more than 2 points to 46.5. Inventories fell in more goods news in the report. There was little reaction in the markets.”

How is next week’s calendar looking?

US Economic Calendar.

US Pending Home Sales Index for August. Econoday reported, “Pending home sales fell 3.2 percent in July to an index level of 86.5, offering no indication that the worst is over for the housing market. Sales showed high single digit percentage declines in the West and Northeast with the Midwest showing a small gain and the South unchanged. The only good news in the report is further moderation in the year-on-year rate, at -6.8 percent and improved from a long run of double digit decreases. But this improvement is tied more to comparison with depressed year-ago data than to the current pace of improvement. Given scarcity of available credit, the report sees little improvement ahead. Markets showed no initial reaction to the report though it may weigh on stocks and the dollar and pull Treasury yields lower through the session.”

US Import and Export Prices for September. After the August data release, Econoday reported: “Import prices, as well as export prices, fell back steeply in August in what, next only to $100 oil, is the best news yet on the price front. Import prices fell 3.7 percent in August, the largest single drop in 20 years. This index had posted eight straight monthly gains and mostly very severe gains as high as 3 percent. The year-on-year rate, now at +16 percent, peaked last month at a record +21.7 percent. Excluding a giant 12.8 percent plunge in petroleum, import prices fell 0.3 percent to end a long streak of 10 monthly gains. The year-on-year rate is still very high at +7.5 percent… The easing in pressure spread to the export side where prices fell for the first time in nearly two years, down 1.7 percent in August. Agricultural prices led the way, down 9.6 percent but are still up 24.8 percent year-on-year. Total export prices are up 8.2 percent year-on-year, down from a rare 10 percent rate in July… It is possible that the worst of the inflation scare is over. Oil prices are coming down and the economic pace here, in Europe, and in Japan has slowed. Pointing to easing pressure specifically on the import side is the ongoing decline in dollar, which on a trade-weighted basis jumped 2.7 percent in August for its biggest gain in 10 years. The higher the dollar is, the lower the cost of foreign goods -- an important factor in today's data. Today's report points to a similar turnaround for tomorrow's producer price report as well perhaps to easing pressure on the consumer side in Tuesday's report.”

US International Trade data for August. After the July report, Econoday reported: “he U.S. trade deficit in July widened sharply on a surge in oil imports but otherwise actually improved. The overall U.S. trade gap jumped to $62.2 billion from a revised $58.82 billion deficit in June and came in worse than the market forecast for a $58.0 billion deficit. In July, exports advanced 3.3 percent while imports increased 3.9 percent. The overall worsening was due to a spike in oil prices as the oil gap gushed to $43.4 billion in July from $37.3 billion in June. Meanwhile the nonoil goods deficit narrowed to $29.6 billion from $32.5 billion in June. The nonoil deficit shrinkage was due to a decline in both capital goods and consumer goods imports, reflecting a slowing in the U.S. economy. Strength in exports was led by industrial supplies and automotive… The average price of imported oil set another record high, coming in at $124.66 per barrel in July, up from $117.13 per barrel in June. Spot prices peaked in early July and we are likely to see some easing in the monthly average for August… Year-on-year, overall exports were up 20.1 percent in July while imports were up 16.8 percent… Today's report shows the likely final impact of the recent surge in oil prices along with a slowing in the economy. Once the numbers are put in real terms (inflation adjusted), the July data actually show improvement in the trade gap and may be one of the few reports supporting third quarter growth. But the slowing in imports indicates that businesses recognize that the economy is very sluggish.”

US Treasury Budget for September. After the August report, Econoday stated: “Following a deeper-than-expected $111.9 billion deficit in August, the fiscal year-to-date deficit is up 76 percent from this time last year, at $483.4 billion with two months still left in the government's fiscal year. Receipts are down 1.4 percent led by weakness in corporate taxes and individual taxes. At the same time that receipts are down outlays are up, up 7.0 percent year-to-date and led by an 11 percent jump in defense to a year-to-date $569.4 billion. Net interest expense shows the next largest increase at 4.5 percent… The nation's widening deficit is a major negative for the economic outlook, limiting the ability of government to manage the economy through tax cuts or spending and flooding the credit market with U.S. Treasuries. The monthly Treasury International Capital report, the next due out on Tuesday, is certain to take greater notice, offering data on foreign demand for not only Treasuries but also federal agency debt, a category that now appears to overlap with Treasuries and one that will begin to add new weight to the budget deficit as the Treasury begins to purchase mortgage-backed securities.” Next month’s report, including the Wall Street bail-out package, should be a whopper of a deficit, which will weigh on the $USD.

The FOMC Minutes are out on Tuesday at 2:00pm ET and the Bank of England monetary policy is out Thursday at 7:00am ET.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

However you look at it, the DJIA and S&P 500 were crushed, taking the biggest losses in years.

All ten sectors were down for the week and for Friday. There were 4 Dow components that were up and 26 down. The trading was highly negative; most traders have fallen into a funk.

Some of the losses this week were American Express (AXP -21.9%), Caterpillar (CAT -20.2), Alcoa (AA -18.3%), GE (GE -14.6%) and IBM (IBM -13.4%). These losses are similar to those the week of Black Monday October 19, 1987.

But these are fine companies and their share prices will come back. Remember, the Bear has been destroying capital for 14 months, and these sell-offs are the end of something, not the start.

Now, if you believe the notion posited by some outstanding economists (Roubini or instance), you may think we are headed for Great Depression II. I respectfully submit we are not.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The NASDAQ Composite plunged this week, now below the low water mark of 2000 I had forecast a couple years ago. The index is now at 1947.99.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

If you find these stocks rallying hard on high volume next week, then I believe you will be watching the power of the Bull.

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

This week, there were zero sectors up and 10 down. Last week wasn’t a good one either, but this one really wasn’t a good week. Even on Friday, all sectors were down.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: [I apologize for the bad data from the vendor]

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLP	27.23	-0.22	-0.80%	-1.70%	-1.70%	-3.85%	-4.09%	2.10%	-3.20%	-2.19%
IYH	60.57	-0.52	-0.85%	-4.91%	-5.96%	-6.22%	-13.59%	-1.99%	-4.84%	-15.31%
XLU	32.13	-0.48	-1.47%	-6.95%	-8.20%	-9.52%	-23.66%	-20.43%	-18.06%	-20.39%
SPY	110.34	-1.51	-1.35%	-8.70%	-11.10%	-11.32%	-23.87%	-12.64%	-19.48%	-28.25%
IYZ	19.25	-0.33	-1.69%	-9.37%	-13.05%	-17.49%	-34.01%	-16.49%	-20.88%	-43.28%
XLK	18.61	-0.29	-1.53%	-10.53%	-10.74%	-13.48%	-28.75%	-16.73%	-20.20%	-31.18%
XLY	25.95	-0.94	-3.50%	-11.28%	-14.07%	-14.30%	-19.41%	-7.49%	-19.41%	-30.82%
SMH	22.90	-0.20	-0.87%	-11.41%	-13.58%	-13.58%	-26.98%	-20.21%	-24.97%	-39.99%
XLF	18.84	-0.80	-4.07%	-11.92%	-15.82%	-13.14%	-33.57%	-5.52%	-29.60%	-46.61%
XLI	27.65	-0.62	-2.19%	-12.42%	-16.49%	-18.05%	-28.20%	-17.24%	-27.71%	-32.54%
XLE	57.78	-0.93	-1.58%	-14.65%	-18.91%	-15.86%	-27.32%	-31.94%	-24.65%	-22.41%
XLB	29.78	-0.71	-2.33%	-15.49%	-22.20%	-20.40%	-27.89%	-24.51%	-29.91%	-29.18%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XOM	77.94	0.44	0.57%	-3.36%	-2.10%	3.07%	-16.65%	-11.70%	-11.66%	-14.66%
CVX	79.38	-0.18	-0.23%	-8.71%	-9.59%	-1.05%	-15.07%	-19.52%	-9.51%	-13.23%
TOT	56.45	-0.02	-0.04%	-12.63%	-13.83%	-12.09%	-32.22%	-30.02%	-26.33%	-27.01%
PTR	97.00	-1.64	-1.66%	-13.00%	-12.15%	-18.71%	-44.14%	-21.70%	-28.39%	-44.50%
IMO	38.26	-1.94	-4.83%	-14.79%	-15.09%	-13.07%	-30.34%	-27.72%	-27.26%	-19.81%
STO	21.31	0.81	3.95%	-15.23%	-19.62%	-16.53%	-31.79%	-40.72%	-30.43%	-33.78%
SLB	72.53	0.47	0.65%	-15.69%	-20.04%	-15.46%	-27.89%	-28.81%	-20.56%	-31.42%
CEO	104.68	-0.87	-0.82%	-16.46%	-18.91%	-22.54%	-37.47%	-38.78%	-33.55%	-33.38%
ECA	54.74	-0.30	-0.55%	-21.01%	-23.66%	-19.24%	-21.36%	-38.43%	-28.53%	-11.06%
PBR	36.72	-1.36	-3.57%	-21.13%	-22.40%	-18.05%	-69.09%	-44.13%	-66.61%	-50.87%
RIG	94.65	-1.53	-1.59%	-22.31%	-24.52%	-22.59%	-35.15%	-33.77%	-32.58%	-15.00%
SU	33.71	0.56	1.69%	-25.70%	-29.92%	-32.16%	-38.85%	-41.25%	-32.36%	-27.02%

Crude Oil ($WTIC closed the week down -12.17% this week to 93.88. Meanwhile $GOLD dropped -6.22% W/W and all the goldbugs are screaming conspiracy. Why aren’t the oilers screaming conspiracy? Oh I see, they are the conspirators! (smiley goes here)

Well, if that’s true maybe VP Cheney was just practicing shooting himself in the foot a year ago while hunting. Now he would have had to do it for real if you believe he is behind the conspiracy. His beloved Halliburton (HAL) has plunged in under 100 days from a July high of $55.27 to Friday’s low of $26.47, closing $26.80!

I do think many of the oil-heavy hedge funds were on the ropes and are now dead, which could take HB&B a week or two to clean the blood off Wall Street.

Now that the $100 psychological level didn’t hold and 90 is looking precarious, is another of my earlier targets (80-85) ready to be hit?

The monster hit to the Crude Oil price explains the monster hit to the related stocks. Energy ETF (XLE) plunged -14.65% W/W to 57.78.

Have my opinions changed about moving into the oil & gas sector? No, but the economic recession data and the credit squeezing bankers are bringing fabulous prices to us. If you are in a little early, the damage looks huge. But if you check the volumes, they are likely on the light side. There is no panic here. Just HB&B pulling bids and yanking chains!

Exxon (XOM), which I a Buy pick of mine, dropped only -3.4% this week and actually gained +0.6% on Friday. Compare that to a long list of major losers, which also included some of my Buy picks: SU -25.7%, RIG -22.3%, PBR -21.1%, ECA -21.0%, CEO -16.5%, SLB -15.7%, and STO -15.0%.

Admittedly there have been mega-billions of shareholder capital wiped away this week in the Energy sector.

Watch for the share volume increases and the lower $USD. This week the $USD made a moonshot gain of +4.51%, while the Euro plunged -5.68%. Volatility in trading will be over the top wild in such an environment.

Somebody is making money, and I suspect it’s HB&B.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior Basic Materials:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DOW	29.89	-0.48	-1.58%	-12.01%	-20.42%	-11.67%	-22.86%	-12.35%	-22.22%	-32.22%
RTP	225.00	6.25	2.86%	-16.97%	-28.55%	-28.44%	-46.39%	-48.07%	-48.48%	-33.39%
AA	19.24	-0.14	-0.72%	-18.27%	-28.18%	-32.01%	-46.75%	-41.31%	-50.08%	-48.88%
BHP	47.10	1.33	2.91%	-19.98%	-24.94%	-21.12%	-33.11%	-39.06%	-33.24%	-39.75%
PKX	80.72	0.69	0.86%	-20.30%	-23.92%	-16.03%	-44.89%	-30.55%	-37.45%	-58.34%
MT	44.62	3.77	9.23%	-21.57%	-31.35%	-30.60%	-41.60%	-46.75%	-45.90%	-41.23%
NUE	34.75	0.45	1.31%	-21.66%	-32.08%	-28.28%	-40.06%	-44.44%	-50.07%	-39.22%
TS	32.69	0.11	0.34%	-22.17%	-32.74%	-27.44%	-26.36%	-51.27%	-36.26%	-38.17%
RIO	15.77	-0.06	-0.38%	-24.51%	-33.63%	-32.95%	-51.79%	-50.84%	-56.19%	-51.18%
GGB	9.110	-0.220	-2.36%	-27.29%	-35.94%	-39.95%	-68.26%	-57.45%	-73.62%	-66.07%
TCK	21.34	-0.93	-4.18%	-34.20%	-40.66%	-43.24%	-41.11%	-51.97%	-51.01%	-55.70%
VCP	11.09	-1.69	-13.22%	-34.69%	-46.32%	-47.14%	-62.66%	-57.43%	-64.21%	-60.51%

Basic Materials (XLB -15.49% to 29.78) was crushed a bit more than Energy.

The winner on my monitor (relatively speaking!) was Dow Chemical (DOW), which was down -12.0%. Wow.

Nine of the 12 stocks in my Basic Materials Watchlist #1 were down more than -20.0% W/W. A Bear market in a week!

The shares of some very good quality companies plunged, like VCP -34.7%, TCK -34.2%, GGB -27.3%, RIO -24.5%, and TS -22.2%. Except for Teck, these are all hot-blooded Brazil-Argentine companies in steel, base metals and paper.

All the goldminers on my top list were down more than -10% and 5 of the 12 were down more than -20%, including AUY -23.5% and AEM -21.5%.

Tough week across the whole sector as maybe HB&B is squeezing the accounts to raise cash to switch to a Financials-led rally. I am speculating, of course. No conspiracy theories here.

Basically, the economic data was bad, but when the worst of it hit with the September US Employment data on Friday morning, surprisingly, the XLB dropped just -2.3% that day, and XLE -1.6%. So in my gut, I suspect there is hedge fund selling, and traders getting ready to boom the Financials (XLF) to kickstart a rally.

The other point that came to mind is that Bears usually die when first the Energy and then the Basic Materials, and finally Goldminers leave the dance floor. The $XAU and GDX goldminer index and ETF sank -19.0% and -19.2% respectively this week.

That means since the end of Feb-early March, the $XAU has plunged -47.4% from the 209.27 high to the 110.08 low this week. Do you recall the report on Goldcorp I issued at the top, recommending to sell it (when all other analysts were hyping it)? More tan anything, I think the stochastics are ready to bolt the barn here, and $XAU will soar.

This week’s sell-off before a bounce could be the tell… In fact I’ll go with that. Let’s watch the Euro/Dollar on Monday early hours to see if there is a reversal from this past week. It looked like it might start on Friday.

Big money to be made here, but you have no time to leave your monitor during the day, which requires plenty of stamina and strong kidneys.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FDX	78.00	0.50	0.65%	-4.36%	-13.41%	-5.20%	-9.47%	4.04%	-20.14%	-25.92%
UPS	60.76	-0.32	-0.52%	-5.64%	-10.25%	-4.90%	-12.15%	2.17%	-18.53%	-19.62%
MMM	64.60	-1.00	-1.52%	-6.98%	-11.12%	-6.63%	-21.90%	-7.00%	-19.42%	-31.42%
BA	53.83	0.25	0.47%	-7.70%	-9.92%	-14.41%	-37.85%	-16.50%	-29.30%	-48.60%
UTX	54.86	-0.12	-0.22%	-9.86%	-14.68%	-14.39%	-27.06%	-10.14%	-22.47%	-31.14%
ABB	17.70	-0.12	-0.67%	-12.20%	-19.44%	-21.99%	-38.20%	-35.33%	-34.83%	-33.78%
HON	37.84	-0.27	-0.71%	-14.33%	-16.50%	-20.70%	-36.83%	-24.79%	-34.35%	-36.84%
GE	21.57	-0.58	-2.62%	-14.57%	-18.97%	-22.63%	-41.32%	-19.84%	-43.00%	-48.09%
FLR	46.76	1.88	4.19%	-15.76%	-27.06%	-28.09%	-35.24%	-48.02%	-38.74%	-37.34%
ERJ	24.03	-1.05	-4.19%	-16.97%	-23.32%	-27.14%	-46.75%	-1.60%	-40.59%	-46.93%
CAT	51.21	-1.01	-1.93%	-20.15%	-22.98%	-20.07%	-27.50%	-27.17%	-33.55%	-34.81%
TXT	25.22	-1.63	-6.07%	-22.38%	-29.87%	-35.79%	-62.25%	-47.28%	-56.50%	-59.70%

The Industrials (XLI -12.42% W/W) closed at 27.65.

With the US economy supposedly in the doldrums, the best performing stocks were FDX (-4.4%) and UPS (-5.6%). How’s that?

The real losers were TXT (-22.4%) and CAT (-20.2%). These were major losses, like the Energy and Basic Materials, all tied to the economically-sensitive stocks. But why did Fedex and UPS get off so lightly?

Sometimes – often, really – traders don’t have the answers. The more we don’t, however, the more we start thinking that prices are being manipulated. In any case, we keep on looking because sooner or later the answers become obvious. It pays to take a stab at answers so that you can consider all possibilities. If you notice, I do that all the time. I don’t mind being wrong because I know it’s just a matter of what percentage I’m wrong. It’s the reason, basically, why risk management is Job #1 when managing portfolios.

When we are wrong, we have to admit it early, and cut off the damage asap. When we are right, it pays to let the profits run.

This week, the commodities got hammered. I think a lot had to do with protection the Financials were getting in the form of Congressional bail-out and SEC short-selling rules, and the like. Nobody was protecting the economically-sensitive sectors in the equity market. No anti short-sale rule there!

Now, if the short-sale rule comes off early in the week, the way my mind works is that somebody (take that as the enemy) wants you and me to short, and we could then be trapped in a rally so that after the enemy puts in the first money to start the rally, the shorts get squeezed and are forced into putting up the second money to keep the rally going.

Why do I think like this? Well, when you build out the penthouse of the Toronto Exchange tower like I did, you are supposed to know how the business runs. The business, I can tell you, if you haven’t read it earlier from me, is for the sell-side (HB&B) to transfer risk from them (and their best clients) to you, the buy-side.

That’s the business in a nutshell. To do it successfully, HB&B has to stay one step ahead. So now that I’m on the buy-side, I have to always be thinking risk, and how the enemy might be trying to push it off on me.

Today, for instance, I think they are trying to scare the wits out of the buy-side to drive the prices of the non-Financials down. I think HB&B is trying to load the spring gun to get everybody on board for a rally. Maybe it’s a strategy to take possession of some desirable hedge fund assets? I don’t know, but I do know that just a couple months ago Goldman Sachs and a few other Wall Streeters were screaming Peak Oil and $200. Nothing’s changed in two or three months, but suddenly those analysts have either gone silent or they have significantly reduced their energy price targets.

If it really is a Peak Oil deal, that behavior is not rational.

I look out for these anomalies, or situations I cannot easily explain.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NKE	63.25	-0.50	-0.78%	-6.70%	-0.71%	7.53%	-0.05%	8.08%	-8.20%	6.81%
CCL	32.74	-1.94	-5.59%	-7.77%	-17.66%	-16.03%	-25.01%	2.67%	-22.23%	-34.47%
BBBY	29.34	-1.23	-4.02%	-9.00%	-10.44%	-5.72%	3.46%	3.24%	-6.95%	-17.70%
DIS	29.54	-0.42	-1.40%	-9.80%	-14.10%	-5.80%	-7.22%	-4.40%	-6.31%	-14.92%
BDK	55.87	-1.80	-3.12%	-11.16%	-16.97%	-12.00%	-20.11%	-1.17%	-20.17%	-32.82%
JCP	31.37	-1.43	-4.36%	-11.63%	-17.69%	-23.09%	-24.68%	-14.50%	-22.16%	-53.83%
TM	78.10	-0.61	-0.77%	-13.95%	-14.50%	-12.07%	-26.64%	-15.11%	-21.93%	-32.75%
TTM	7.130	-0.130	-1.79%	-15.12%	-27.32%	-23.99%	-63.34%	-19.89%	-55.82%	-63.27%
TGT	43.66	-1.04	-2.33%	-15.17%	-18.12%	-20.66%	-11.82%	-6.91%	-18.01%	-33.57%
WHR	71.13	-5.25	-6.87%	-15.68%	-21.39%	-13.27%	-10.95%	13.46%	-22.31%	-23.81%
EBAY	18.94	-0.21	-1.10%	-16.08%	-18.26%	-20.32%	-41.71%	-29.33%	-40.29%	-51.84%
BC	10.86	-1.10	-9.20%	-22.76%	-28.03%	-20.67%	-35.82%	7.00%	-36.23%	-55.11%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY -11.28% W/W) closed at 25.95.

Nike (NKE -6.7%) ran ahead of the rest of the losers, while the others were well behind. Brunswick Corp (BC -22.8% when Crude Oil dropped -12.2% in the same week? Give me a break. This is a manipulation); Ebay (EBAY -16.1%); Whirlpool (WHR -15.7%); and Target (TGT -15.2% when WMT was down just -1.6%?). Some big losers here too.

In any case, there will be a credit market problem and a homes foreclosure problem, and an employment layoff problem, longer than any of us would care for. So, “no tickee” means I don’t like Consumer Discretionary at this point.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PG	71.02	-0.42	-0.59%	3.17%	0.94%	0.34%	-1.78%	11.54%	0.78%	0.87%
KFT	33.08	-0.46	-1.37%	0.46%	-5.40%	1.22%	3.21%	14.82%	6.03%	-3.53%
KO	52.57	-1.03	-1.92%	0.17%	-0.28%	1.23%	-13.95%	2.12%	-13.19%	-8.69%
WMT	59.73	0.88	1.50%	-1.61%	0.05%	-1.66%	27.36%	5.53%	8.74%	32.35%
KR	27.20	-0.58	-2.09%	-2.33%	0.59%	1.23%	5.96%	-7.64%	7.17%	-5.23%
PEP	69.00	-1.91	-2.69%	-3.78%	-5.72%	0.12%	-8.35%	3.34%	-3.36%	-6.08%
SBUX	13.66	-0.51	-3.60%	-8.69%	-15.37%	-10.01%	-29.26%	-12.21%	-25.52%	-48.53%
ABV	50.24	-0.21	-0.42%	-10.54%	-13.77%	-13.45%	-30.68%	-15.96%	-37.59%	-35.55%
DEO	64.96	-2.81	-4.15%	-11.15%	-14.03%	-9.59%	-23.63%	-9.13%	-23.47%	-27.01%
WFMI	18.00	-0.87	-4.61%	-12.79%	-13.42%	-0.66%	-54.73%	-20.74%	-46.54%	-64.22%
WAG	27.96	-1.16	-3.98%	-14.57%	-15.17%	-19.17%	-25.12%	-11.10%	-26.79%	-29.11%
PDA	32.43	-1.39	-4.11%	-17.38%	-29.82%	-30.84%	-32.62%	-32.94%	-34.25%	-26.45%

Consumer Staples (XLP -1.70% W/W to 27.23) ended the week the best performer. Nervous traders were using XLP as a safe-haven play, like Treasuries and Healthcare.

The five best performing DJIA components this week were: PG, PFE, KFT, KO and MRK. That tells me traders are scared. The low volume tells me they haven’t panicked, but they are clearly turning defensive.

When the rally starts, these will be the laggards.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PFE	19.00	0.21	1.12%	1.82%	2.43%	2.65%	-17.07%	7.04%	-10.97%	-24.24%
BMY	20.43	0.03	0.15%	-1.87%	-2.71%	-4.93%	-21.81%	-1.68%	-6.67%	-31.30%
NVS	53.57	1.43	2.74%	-2.40%	0.85%	0.36%	-1.83%	-5.20%	4.06%	-1.80%
AMGN	58.89	0.30	0.51%	-2.93%	-1.80%	-2.52%	26.37%	15.83%	41.66%	6.07%
MDT	49.61	0.62	1.27%	-2.97%	-5.45%	-6.89%	0.22%	-2.84%	1.20%	-12.72%
DNA	87.53	1.02	1.18%	-4.01%	-5.14%	-9.43%	29.87%	12.30%	10.21%	12.43%
JNJ	66.16	-1.63	-2.40%	-4.67%	-5.47%	-6.38%	0.38%	1.60%	1.36%	0.09%
WLP	44.46	-1.05	-2.31%	-4.78%	-7.41%	-9.30%	-48.90%	-1.16%	-3.83%	-41.93%
GSK	42.59	-0.17	-0.40%	-5.21%	-4.34%	-5.94%	-15.11%	-8.94%	-4.76%	-20.97%
AET	36.40	0.07	0.19%	-5.43%	-5.68%	-12.12%	-35.73%	-1.99%	-13.91%	-31.95%
NVO	52.29	1.65	3.26%	-6.02%	-2.52%	1.12%	-18.04%	-17.65%	-23.86%	-56.32%
UNH	24.11	-0.65	-2.63%	-6.59%	-10.00%	-12.99%	-57.46%	5.01%	-33.31%	-48.76%

The Healthcare sector (IYH) lost -4.91% to close at 60.57, which was bad but put this defensive sector into second best sector performer this week.

I suggested a week ago that UNH would be down this week, and it was the worst on my 12-stock monitor #1 for Healthcare, down -6.6%.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HBC	81.37	1.35	1.69%	-0.16%	-0.46%	7.21%	-1.30%	7.12%	-4.71%	-14.63%
UBS	19.95	-0.15	-0.75%	-0.75%	-6.99%	-4.09%	-56.43%	-1.82%	-38.60%	-64.99%
MER	26.67	-0.73	-2.66%	-2.52%	-9.59%	-0.22%	-49.45%	-14.30%	-41.88%	-64.91%
MS	23.92	0.71	3.06%	-3.35%	-12.09%	-42.17%	-53.05%	-33.39%	-51.06%	-64.30%
JPM	45.90	-3.95	-7.92%	-4.85%	-2.44%	15.91%	8.85%	29.99%	-0.82%	-2.34%
RY	45.73	-0.02	-0.04%	-7.17%	-6.00%	0.15%	-9.59%	3.91%	-5.75%	-18.70%
GS	128.00	-3.54	-2.69%	-7.24%	-1.39%	-21.59%	-38.34%	-28.45%	-27.49%	-43.70%
IBN	22.79	-1.71	-6.98%	-8.62%	-18.58%	-28.13%	-63.33%	-16.00%	-42.16%	-57.82%
C	18.35	-4.15	-18.44%	-8.93%	-11.14%	-3.78%	-36.55%	9.10%	-24.67%	-61.68%
CS	47.00	0.90	1.95%	-9.88%	-6.32%	2.91%	-21.25%	6.53%	-16.18%	-31.84%
DB	68.29	0.23	0.34%	-17.28%	-18.94%	-17.43%	-47.09%	-21.61%	-42.42%	-49.06%
BBD	13.13	-0.99	-7.01%	-18.70%	-21.42%	-24.97%	-56.85%	-34.87%	-55.69%	-55.08%

The Financials (XLF -11.92% to 18.84) was another poor performer. Interestingly, much of the damage was caused after the House vote started at 1:00pm ET on Friday. At the end of the session, XLF was the worst performed and Consumer Discretionary (XLY), which is dependent on HB&B credit, was second worst.

Just when the public thinks that Wall Street got their $700 billion demand from Treasury, plus at least another $400 Billion in guarantees, which would remove the credit market roadblock, the T-Bill yield dropped further, the LIBOR rate increased, and the XLF and XLY went into the tank.

This is how markets work when people have them under control. I think Henry Paulson and Friends on Wall Street were sending a message to the governments in Europe and Japan to say you’re next. They are going to demand more hand-outs before they repair the credit ring they broke.

Nasty business, but Henry is now King. His kiss of Pelosi’s ring was the kiss of death. He doesn’t need her now.

Watch for the bank merger wars to continue. There will likely be fewer than ten major players (ie, US banks of consequence) left standing in a few months. Now that he owns the People’s money, King Henry will decide which bank merges with which bank. Then the European banks will have to decide which ones will be the major players there.

If there is a hint that Paulson returns to work in the next Administration, then clearly I will have to re-think my strategy of over-weighting US equities.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ORCL	19.48	-0.01	-0.05%	-5.53%	-2.94%	-2.94%	-13.38%	-6.03%	-5.80%	-9.69%
INTC	17.31	0.11	0.64%	-9.84%	-9.98%	-16.01%	-31.72%	-16.21%	-21.07%	-32.93%
GOOG	386.91	-3.58	-0.92%	-10.24%	-13.86%	-12.91%	-43.53%	-27.95%	-14.99%	-33.75%
CSCO	21.25	0.05	0.24%	-10.79%	-12.52%	-4.54%	-19.93%	-8.09%	-12.30%	-34.51%
QCOM	40.87	0.30	0.74%	-10.84%	-16.15%	-14.26%	6.46%	-9.28%	-2.43%	-3.31%
INFY	29.58	-1.00	-3.27%	-11.99%	-23.17%	-24.90%	-33.42%	-30.56%	-20.93%	-41.58%
RIMM	60.96	-1.04	-1.68%	-13.85%	-41.07%	-43.00%	-46.39%	-47.01%	-50.27%	-36.68%
SNDK	18.38	-2.27	-10.99%	-14.75%	-18.38%	4.20%	-44.59%	-0.27%	-30.56%	-65.55%
ADBE	33.69	-1.53	-4.34%	-15.75%	-17.71%	-17.65%	-19.23%	-16.59%	-8.97%	-23.40%
SAP	45.65	-3.20	-6.55%	-20.58%	-21.47%	-15.77%	-10.01%	-12.28%	-12.28%	-22.14%
CTSH	19.26	-1.26	-6.14%	-22.12%	-27.51%	-30.59%	-40.24%	-39.43%	-34.84%	-53.52%
AAPL	97.07	-3.03	-3.03%	-24.31%	-31.11%	-39.40%	-50.18%	-42.94%	-35.97%	-38.53%

Tech (XLK -10.53% to 18.61) and Semi-conductors (SMH -11.41% to 22.90) were hammered too, although middle of the pack performers when the week ended. The chip stocks were one of the better performers on Friday. On the week though, Intel (INTC) was down -9.8%.

Oracle (ORCL) was down just -5.5%, not bad considering the losses taken by Apple (AAPL -24.3%), Cognizant Technology (CTSH -22.1%) and SAP Software (SAP -20.6%).

CTSH is down almost -50% in about 100 days and AAPL down the same in about 150 days. The business is not that bad. Rumors on Wall Street this week had Apple’s Steve Jobs suffering a heart attack. The organized short-selling has been vicious. The SEC is looking the other way.

A week ago in this space, I wrote: “Yes, it could be early, but if the Bull is starting, then AAPL (140.91) will be a “tell”. Get it? William Tell! (bad joke.)” Isn’t it amazing then that bad people on Wall Street start rumors about Steve Jobs’ health. These crooks are short, and they are, I’ll bet a dollar to a penny, paying off media to carry their phony stories to the public.

There are bad actors on Wall Street who will do pretty much anything to take your money. It’s why I say the SEC must be put into control over all regulation of financial services in the US, and do it as an independent organization like the federal judiciary. I say that because white collar crime is endemic in America (“Patchie” writes about this in the Discourse all the time) and the crooks are made men, protected by authorities who are politicians and people under the influence of politicians. That has to stop.

Anyway, AAPL from 140 to 97 in ten days is a complete Bear market. But AAPL has fallen from over 180 in mid-August. For RIMM, the drop has been from 135 to 61, which is even worse.

Imagine; it’s like everybody woke up two weeks ago and said they knew the coming of Great Depression II was a certainty.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Telecom (IYZ -9.37% W/W) closed at 19.25. A week ago I said “this sector has been very weak recently. Typically, it tracks Financials fairly closely.” This week, it was miserable. Verizon (VZ -2.9%) was down a bit, but AT&T (T -6.3%) was dumped.

As I stated a two weeks ago, “Like the most Financials, I think I’ll avoid the Telco sector when selecting companies whose stocks I want to buy for the next Bull market.”

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

Utilities (XLU -6.95% to 32.13% W/W) was the third best performing sector. The worst losers here this week were FPL -12.5%, FE -11.1% and EXC -10.4%.

Those are big losses for Utilities to take in a week, and all types (electric, gas and diversified) were badly hit.

I have just started running this table to help you with the higher income utilities.

Here is the list of North American Utilities that I will be following more closely:
AEP D DUK ED EXC FE FPL NGG PCG PEG SO TRP

For study purposes, there is a good mix of electric (AEP, D, DUK, FE, FPL and SO), gas (NGG, TRP) and diversified (ED, EXC, PCG, PEG) utilities.

Table 12: US Utilities

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	0.30	0.51	0.45	1.63
6 Month	0.95	1.09	1.21	1.85
2 Year	1.57	1.60	2.10	2.25
3 Year	1.45	1.48	1.90	2.09
5 Year	2.63	2.66	3.07	2.94
10 Year	3.61	3.63	3.86	3.70
30 Year	4.09	4.15	4.38	4.32

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.75	2.82	2.62	2.15
2yr AAA	2.59	2.59	2.40	2.10
2yr A	2.95	2.79	2.65	2.51
5yr AAA	3.18	3.28	3.08	2.73
5yr AA	3.33	3.29	3.15	2.80
5yr A	3.50	3.55	3.23	2.85
10yr AAA	4.44	4.32	3.94	3.55
10yr AA	4.23	4.07	3.97	3.54
10yr A	3.96	3.98	4.06	3.59
20yr AAA	5.76	5.30	4.97	4.51
20yr AA	5.74	5.27	5.06	4.60
20yr A	5.49	4.88	4.80	4.81

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.72	4.88	5.03	4.07
2yr A	9.62	9.58	10.50	5.36
5yr AAA	5.33	5.29	5.41	4.73
5yr AA	7.12	7.30	6.85	5.39
5yr A	7.70	6.91	7.97	5.55
10yr AAA	5.03	5.03	5.45	4.69
10yr AA	7.30	7.17	6.53	6.29
10yr A	6.85	6.78	6.72	6.22
20yr AAA	5.81	5.84	6.04	5.74
20yr AA	5.92	5.95	6.03	5.76
20yr A	6.43	6.49	6.61	5.92

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Two weeks ago, I wrote in this space, “Bond prices peaked late in the day Thursday. I believe they are headed south from here.” A week ago, the 20-year Treasury ETF (TLT) lifted a bit (+0.56%) to 94.50 from 93.97. But this week was a classic stampede to safety as TLT soared further +3.07% to 97.40. That’s a huge move for bonds, which weighs on my Bull market call for equities.

If traders are going to flee to Treasuries, cash, and Consumer Staples, there can’t be a Bull market for equities. So it’s easy to say I have been wrong. However, I haven’t changed my opinion. Hot money can just as easily flee Treasuries, cash, and Consumer Staples back into equities, and I think they will as soon as somebody close to Henry Paulson shoots off the gun to start the Bull run.

The bond charts show extreme moves into Treasuries (like the SHY 1-3 year maturities), and out of Corporates (LQD). The LQD plunged from 100 to 80 and back to 88.86 within two weeks. The AGG (Aggregate bond fund) dropped from a high of 102.08 to 94.50 and back to 98.62 within two weeks. The TIPs have been hammered in the past two weeks. Totally unstable, and probably due to the failure at Lehman Brothers, which was the big player in these markets.

So I think that the Lehman failure has caused a severe disruption in the bond hedge funds, including among the large foreign investors, which led in part to the panic by Paulson and Bernanke, who are more focused on the $USD, the Bond Market and the short-term credit markets than they are with equities. In fact a senior level authority in Malaysia publicly expressed his dismay at the lack of stability in these markets.

I really have no idea when, but I do have confidence that a trillion dollar pool (or more) held by Mssrs Henry Paulson and Tim Geithner (NY Fed head) will bring stability to the market.

At the end of the day, however, I’d like to see these people, plus the Fed chairman Bernanke and SEC chairman Cox replaced, and the whole ownership and regulatory structure changed.

Moreover, there needs to be a new exchange set up for credit derivatives so that the buy-side gets to be a check and balance on the Banks.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TLT	97.40	0.85	0.88%	3.07%	3.65%	2.01%	3.20%	5.79%	3.24%	9.56%
IEF	90.08	0.30	0.34%	1.32%	0.99%	0.05%	2.80%	2.71%	-0.22%	7.51%
SHY	83.95	0.23	0.27%	0.65%	0.83%	1.06%	1.96%	1.39%	0.38%	3.62%
AGG	98.62	0.74	0.76%	-0.09%	-2.36%	-2.17%	-2.98%	-0.96%	-2.93%	-1.08%
TIP	101.86	0.24	0.24%	-0.78%	-1.74%	-3.16%	-4.48%	-5.77%	-5.93%	0.11%
AVB	86.14	-3.49	-3.89%	-13.22%	-17.09%	-13.88%	-5.70%	-0.95%	-17.36%	-29.37%
EQR	39.14	-1.69	-4.14%	-14.00%	-17.65%	-7.58%	7.44%	3.46%	-10.54%	-10.33%
NLY	13.12	-0.04	-0.30%	-15.19%	-15.95%	-14.36%	-27.51%	-15.90%	-18.66%	-17.54%
DRE	20.25	-1.79	-8.12%	-21.02%	-24.83%	-19.64%	-20.96%	-10.40%	-18.12%	-40.63%
FRE	1.4900	-0.3100	-17.22%	-25.50%	170.91%	-70.78%	-95.45%	-89.72%	-94.74%	-97.61%
FNM	1.3400	-0.2200	-14.10%	-26.78%	94.20%	-80.97%	-96.42%	-92.86%	-95.66%	-97.97%

Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) were recently among the very largest, and perceived strongest, of financial companies. This week they closed down over -25% each to $1.34 and $1.49 respectively. In 52-weeks, FNM is down -98.0% and FRE down -97.6%. Government has made a mess of this. The management were friends; the legislators were on the payroll. When the GSEs couldn’t even get their accounting systems to work; the NYSE looked the other way and allowed them the privilege of staying listed. Even today as penny stocks, they maintain a listing unlike any other company in the world. This situation is patently unfair.

Everybody has understood the deceit and yet the US authorities permit it to this day. Is it any wonder that the public is seething mad? I understand why Fox Network anchor Bill O’Reilly was screaming at Rep. Barney Frank, calling him the liar he is. Frank blew it off, right after Fox played the tapes showing him guilty. That’s a concern we all share; these politician are now laughing at the public. Too many of them have no shame.

Here is the proof. It’s just 6:30 in length. Like somebody said, “It ain’t pretty.”

Listen clearly to what Barney Frank said on TV on July 14. Check the prices of FNM and FRE on that date. Listen to him try to b.s. the audience and then scold O’Reilly for being called a coward. He tried to say his House committee did a good job with Fannie and Freddie. O’Reilly told him, he’s a liar and a clown.

Barney Frank is Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, so yes I also believe that Frank’s a liar and a clown. America needs to clean House in November.

Having proven itself a total failure at oversight and sponsorship, government also needs to give up all interest in financial Government Sponsored Enterprises. All these quasi public-private enterprises need to be would up as soon as possible.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB plunged -10.44% W/W to 326.51.

The 50-day MA is 378.59 and the 200-day MA is 400.33.

As bankers call in loans, the owners of commodities are getting hammered. If the commodities had been priced for economic returns instead of speculative returns based mostly on inflated and rising prices (ie, hot air), losses like this would not be happening.

Do you recall the point where I said that a $CRB over 320 made no sense to me, and that I believed the Paulson and Bernanke team would step in soon to cut the speculation? They never did. They let commodity prices blow up a bubble that then burst. Well that point was July 2007 when credit markets were starting to seize up, and the Fed didn’t step in to change the margin requirements on the various commodity exchanges until $CRB ran up several months later to 474. Bernanke had the tools to regulate, and he failed to do so. How many of you believe that he was under White house orders to let that oil price run from 70 then (June-July 2007) all the way up to 148 a year later before the economy imploded, and the commodity bubble burst? I believe that.

Economics is pretty simple you know. It is these vested interests who complicate it and screw it up and the conflicts of interest by the authorities and lawmakers who allow that to happen.

There are a lot of lessons here. I know Henry Paulson knows them by rote. He knew what he was doing all along. I was calling it Paulson’s Folly. He’s now King, and the rest of us (according to the metaphor) are paupers.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) plunged -12.17% to 93.88.

A week ago I wrote in this space, “Yes, ultimately I do feel that Crude Oil will drop to the 80-85/bbl level, which is still a rather large pull-back if it happens; but I’m certainly not negative on the shares of the high quality Oil & Gas industry companies, which I believe will lead the commodity price turn-around – as they usually do.”

Well, as oil plunged from 106.89 to 93.88, the XLE sank -14.7% W/W. I spoke too soon. But I was also having a serious computer issue last week, and raced through the WIR on somebody else’s computer. Besides more than half my week has been tied up in business meetings, which is challenging when markets are fast moving.

In any case, I think the foreclosures issue will be resolved (the wrong way of course, but it will be dealt with) and the HB&B credit ring restored, fairly soon. I believe we are working through a market bottom phase that will soon be seen as a Bull.

Ian Notley used to put up charts on a wall that showed a clear and distinctive peak. He would ask when the Bear started, and people would point to the peak. Then, he’d point to the momentum break (RSI, Stochastics, MACD) that occurred before the peak and he’d say, that’s where the Bull ended. It just took time for the first wave of selling to be recognized by the rest. Since that lesson, I have always tried to be early to change from Bull to Bear and Bear to Bull mind-set. I would use the time to put tactics in place that would hopefully optimize my profit, bearing in mind the risks involved.

Some of us call it the time when markets are changing as the time to put in stink bids and offers. Prices then tend to come to you. You buy into weakness and sell into strength. How many times have I referred to that principle in these pages? A lot.

So when I say that I believe the Bull market has started and I am buying something, it could be that I am writing puts, and letting the price come to me, if it ever does. Since I know most of them won’t and will expire worthless, I’ll collect a lot of premium income. My downside risk is minimal and I end of buying a few of those positions I wanted anyway, and do so at very good net prices, factoring in the income.

For $WTIC, the 50d MA is now 110.48, and the 200d MA is 112.39.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

A week ago I wrote, “$GOLD …dropped -3.60% on Friday to close at 864.70 in the spot market… This is a negative technical picture, but I have opined that too much Fed money will lead to higher gold prices.”

This week $GOLD dropped to 833.20 (-6.22%) – about half the drop in the oil price, but serious nonetheless if you are a gold Bull like me.

This one hurt, and it could get worse. The $USD is rising; the banks are squeezing the speculators; and hedge funds are closing day in and day out. This is not a market anyone can write about week to week. Trading this market hour to hour is tough enough.

What we can expect at some point soon, however, is the result of well over $1 trillion in new money being printed by the Treasury Secretary having an impact on the price of gold, which will shoot it higher. The tell will be in the Euro/Dollar level. As the Euro starts to rally after taking the incredible hit of -5.68% this week, $GOLD will rally at that point too.

I think before that happens, however, the ECB and Bank of England and the European governments will likely agree to join with the US in printing money to try to reflate the region out of the financial and economic problems it faces today. Reflation in Europe ought to temporarily help strengthen the $USD, holding or pushing $GOLD lower. But when all these countries including the US, Japan, Canada and Australia, etc, reflate at once, what they are doing is to devalue their currencies against gold. At some point after the TED spread narrows, I expect $GOLD to zoom. With a wide TED spread, there is a greater opportunity cost by holding gold and not time deposits (aka CDs).

For $GOLD, the 50d MA is now 848.06, and the 200d MA is 896.83.

Incidentally, it was just three weeks ago that $GOLD closed the week at 764.50, well below today’s price of 833.20. I called for a gold rally when gold was below 764, and it did to 932 within two weeks. How quickly people forget. I then opined that there would be a $USD rally which would know gold and silver down again, which it did. This week I will be watching gold like a hawk for another purchase.

The point is that when I start to work I focus on results for clients. Blogging is fun, a challenge too and yes I do tend to carry the weight of the world on my shoulders – you should see some of the heart-breaking letters I get – but I happen to love work and blogging too. So, I do what I can as long as people understand there is a limit to consecutive 15 hour days. Mine happens to be about a month of that, and then I need to decompress.

I’m really feeling the pressure now because I happen to be out there calling a new Bull and with the -10% loss in US equities this week, I can understand why many of you are not believers.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

$SILVER lost -16.13% W/W to close at 11.32. But a week earlier $SILVER gained +8.24% and the week before that the gain was +15.56% from $10.80. So we are still up after I called the precious metals Bull three weeks ago.

Hopefully the pressure on precious metals is not too excessive this week.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 13.73, and the 200d MA is 16.49.

As I wrote in this space three weeks ago, “I think $SILVER will bottom here before $GOLD. The Silver Crazies sense things can change quickly. As tortured and depressed as they are, having failed to jump ship when I shouted SOS, they are still alive. In fact, if you read kaimu closely, there is no killing a Silver Crazy.” No sooner said than done: $SILVER rocketed +15.6% W/W the following week.

Extreme volatility is usually a sign that prices are in the process of reversing trend.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLATINUM plunged -11.41% to close at 986.60. It’s hard to believe that as recently as July, $PLAT was trading at $2100/oz, now under $1,000. All the gains back to 2005 have been eliminated.

The 50-day MA for $PLAT is 1384.98 and the 200-day MA is 1795.06.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALLADIUM has been on a five-week plunge from $300 to $200, but as recently as March, $PALL traded as high as 600.

This week $PALL dropped -9.02% to 205.15. The price is back to Oct 2005. Three years of gains wiped out in six months. That’s the way Bears go.

The 50-day MA is now 290.18 and the 200-day MA is 407.04.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER contracts lost -0.55% to 317.65.

$COPPER is now 269.00, dropping -12.51% from 307.45 this week.

The 50-day MA is 326.27 and the 200-day MA is 354.78.

I think it was notable that $COPPER contracts lifted +2.38% on Friday, and $SILVER was up +1.84% on the same day. I like that. But let’s watch the Euro/Dollar trade overnight tonight and into Monday morning. If the Euro is strong, then I think the gold and plat and pall will start to catch silver and copper.

But, I’m watching not hoping.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BVN	20.87	0.11	0.53%	-10.43%	-14.26%	9.84%	-31.44%	-33.09%	-38.44%	-10.12%
NEM	35.58	1.38	4.04%	-13.22%	-14.98%	-11.56%	-32.09%	-29.05%	-23.12%	-20.49%
ABX	32.09	0.16	0.50%	-13.27%	-8.58%	3.72%	-30.27%	-28.83%	-26.13%	-18.57%
KGC	14.18	0.06	0.42%	-14.58%	-14.27%	-0.07%	-29.63%	-38.02%	-37.40%	-3.67%
LIHR	19.76	0.86	4.55%	-14.61%	-18.95%	25.22%	-40.43%	-34.59%	-36.52%	-44.07%
GFI	7.830	0.100	1.29%	-17.32%	-8.53%	-5.09%	-49.16%	-36.50%	-42.85%	-54.79%
AU	19.97	0.65	3.36%	-17.55%	-19.22%	-16.83%	-56.45%	-40.44%	-44.33%	-53.42%
GG	26.74	0.17	0.64%	-20.13%	-16.90%	-8.42%	-27.02%	-40.92%	-32.39%	-10.21%
HMY	8.060	0.260	3.33%	-20.59%	-14.07%	3.87%	-25.02%	-32.72%	-33.17%	-22.94%
EGO	5.350	0.080	1.52%	-20.97%	-22.35%	-19.31%	-13.71%	-32.79%	-26.21%	-10.23%
AEM	47.00	0.44	0.95%	-21.48%	-22.87%	-10.00%	-16.84%	-35.08%	-30.90%	-3.15%
AUY	6.860	0.060	0.88%	-23.52%	-27.64%	-25.60%	-50.54%	-56.86%	-52.29%	-38.80%

The Goldminer stocks were crucified this week. ETFs like GDX (-19.23%) and XGD.TO (-13.10%) and the $XAU Philly Goldminers index (-18.95%) were all thoroughly beaten. The perma-bulls are questioning why they even hold precious metal stocks when so many things can go wrong, like country risk, commodity price risk, equity market risk, credit market crises, inflation, power shortages, mine accidents, takeovers that don’t make sense, and on and on.

But then along comes Friday, and the goldbugs get that gleam in their eye again. With the money printing presses rolling out a trillion here and a trillion there, the goldminer stock prices started to percolate. On Friday, $XAU went up +0.95%, GDX was down just -0.03%, and XGD was up +0.48%. Not bad. But there has to be follow-through.

For my goldstock monitor, all stocks were down over -10% W/W. Five of the top 12 were down over -20% this week. Yamana (AUY -23.5%) and Agnico-Eagle (AEM -21.5%) were crushed.

A week ago I said I was concerned. I wrote, “We’ll be watching closely. But, these are volatile markets, which require minute to minute monitoring, so they are not for the typical trader.”

I cannot stress that point too much. Such volatility requires traders to hit the buy and sell button frequently. Sometimes these trades are stomach turning. It’s not a practice many traders enjoy.

The money to be made or lost can be large.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

You cannot trade commodities that are priced in $USD without studying forex movement. The Forex market is a multi-trillion dollar marketplace every day, which dwarfs the size of the stock and bond markets. In this market, the Euro/USD is the highest volume trader. The $USD is a trade-weighted US Dollar index, we used to call the Morgan Dollar.

The current value of $USD is a mean value of rate fluctuations of six world currencies (Japanese yen, Euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona) that each trade against the USD. I discussed this in depth in the past two WIRs.

This week the $USD closed +4.51% higher at $0.8047 or if you are looking at the futures market at 80.47. On Friday, the $USD was down -0.10%, so the gain was made earlier in the week.

I continue to believe a huge drop may happen in the $USD because the Treasury Secretary has embarked on a program of massive reflation in order to bail out the major US banks.

Reflation is different from inflation, which refers to the increased cost of goods and services. Reflation is money printing.

But the picture is complicated by bank failures and rescue packages in UK and Europe.

The 50-day MA for the $USD is 76.94 and the 200-day MA is 74.52.

My opinion is that the $USD has been rallying since the beginning of July because traders became cognizant of the economic slowdowns in Europe, Canada and Japan that were even worse than the US. In fact, recently the OECD increased its GDP forecast for the US and lowered it for the other countries, which then spiked the $USD.

In time, however, the net effect of global reflation ought to be a weakening of the $USD, possibly headed for a test of the all-time low of 70.70. The charts at StockCharts (links below) reflect that opinion, in my view.

If so, precious metal prices will ultimately soar, despite the losses that occurred this week.

It’s only by looking at the capital marketplace as a continuum of prices, constantly studying price dynamics, will people ever have an understanding of trading.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) dropped a stunning -5.68% in one week to close Friday at 137.93.

Just a couple weeks ago I wrote, “The Euro lifted +1.79% this week to close at 1.4484. With the previous Friday’s gain of +1.85%, the Euro has now lifted +3.64% in six sessions, which is truly an awesome move.” How quickly that strength reversed.

Now I’m looking for a stronger Euro, especially if the Fed announces an emergency rate cut.

The Euro 50day MA is 1.4706 and the 200day MA is 1.5177.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound lost -3.70% W/W, closing at 1.7755.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 1.8532 and 1.9464.

The UK economy is what some economists and politicians are calling “sick”, so don’t expect the Pound to soar too high right away.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) gained +0.85% this week, closing at 95.02. That is three straight weeks of up moves. Some say this is the impact of the reversing Japanese carry trade by traders who are fearful of falling market prices.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 92.76 and the 200-day MA is 94.31

The Yen closed the week ending Aug 17 at 90.49. The rising Yen is really hurting the Japanese exporters. Toyota Motors (TM) closed the week at 78.10, down in ten days from 91.35.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) dropped -4.32% to 92.52, which is a big boost to exporters and in-bound tourism.

The problem is that America now requires all international travelers to carry passports and Canada was once exempt. By not having a passport, they cannot travel to Canada, which in NYC is like crossing the bridge to New Jersey, or at least it used to be. The line-ups now go for hours.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 94.94 and 98.27 respectively.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Here is the China Yuan (CNY) chart.

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International Equity Markets Review

There were softer prices this week in the global equity markets. Most of these markets are sitting right on crucial technical support levels, appearing ready to tumble once more. In fact, had there not been a remarkable turnabout on Thursday afternoon at DJIA=10462 that was extended through the close on Friday at 11388.44, I would definitely be writing today about the last stumble in this 2007-2008 Bear market.

UK FTSE moved down from 5088.5 to 4980.3

German DAX moved down from 6063.5 to 5707.0

Aussie All-Ords moved down from 4163.4 to 4080.8

HK Hang Seng moved down from 18682.1 to 17682.4

India’s BSE 30 moved down from 13102.2 to 12526.3

Japan’s Nikkei 225 moved down from 11893.2 to 10938.1

All countries are hurting. The equity market sell-off is a global phenomenon.

Two weeks ago I wrote here, ‘Don’t fight the Fed-Treasury tag team’ and called for a Bull market, but I also issued a stern warning: “A 70-cent Dollar will boom the equity markets. Watch Russia. Watch Brazil. Watch India. Watch Australia. Watch Canada. Watch Gold. Watch Oil (should make George happy). Watch XLE. Watch XLB. Watch XLI. Watch XLK.”

Well, the $USD has been soaring and the rest of these market prices have been crashing, which is to say that any trader would not stand in the way. I am saying this week to watch that $USD and TED spread. If the $USD falls and the TED spread narrows, I believe the market will be ready to go higher.

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There are 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices. This will come after we switch to the Drupal platform this month.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	31.98	-0.59	-1.81%	-7.47%	-10.55%	-14.70%	-48.34%	-8.00%	-32.43%	-39.79%
EWU	16.11	-0.09	-0.56%	-9.49%	-13.15%	-9.24%	-32.54%	-20.13%	-28.34%	-37.78%
GXC	49.34	-0.27	-0.54%	-9.63%	-16.75%	-17.38%	-44.50%	-23.85%	-34.17%	-46.91%
EWJ	9.900	-0.180	-1.79%	-10.81%	-12.47%	-9.59%	-25.17%	-19.45%	-22.47%	-31.58%
EWH	12.36	-0.22	-1.75%	-11.14%	-16.32%	-17.98%	-43.28%	-24.31%	-34.71%	-40.38%
EWQ	25.04	-0.16	-0.63%	-12.02%	-15.00%	-11.46%	-34.00%	-20.73%	-30.35%	-35.11%
EWG	22.29	-0.15	-0.67%	-12.83%	-15.86%	-12.79%	-37.02%	-23.11%	-30.78%	-35.56%
EWA	19.48	-0.12	-0.61%	-13.81%	-12.61%	-9.77%	-32.31%	-23.76%	-28.54%	-39.37%
EWC	23.53	-0.48	-2.00%	-15.27%	-18.89%	-16.97%	-27.38%	-27.15%	-25.33%	-27.73%
EWZ	47.40	-2.06	-4.16%	-21.37%	-25.12%	-26.43%	-41.45%	-42.93%	-42.70%	-35.39%
RSX	23.10	-2.05	-8.15%	-26.08%	-31.54%	-34.56%	-56.05%	-54.87%	-52.36%	-49.78%

All the country market ETFs were smashed. Brazil (EWZ -21.37% W/W) and Russia (RSX -26.08%) were hammered because they are major global supplies of commodities. India (IFN -7.37%) and China (GXC -9.63%), which are major buyers of commodities were relatively better off, but down a lot nonetheless. The other country ETFs were down between -10% and -15%.

As I wrote previously, “Now Paulson has shifted the crapola directly to the taxpayer, so they are infuriated. However, in return he will give them a Bull market, and nothing shuts up people faster than the wealth effect, as these Bull markets are referred to.”

He’s trying, but he has to line up his ducks in order and that involves Europe and Japan.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA (-7.34%), S&P 500 (-9.40%), NASDAQ Composite (-10.81%), and Russell 2000 small cap index (-12.12%) were hammered down about an average of -10% across the board, representing the worst market losses for several years.

The big winners in the DJIA this week were: PG +3.2%, PFE +1.8%, KFT +0.5%, and KO +0.2%. In fact those were the only winners this week.

The losers were: AXP -21.9%, CAT -20.2%, AA -18.3%, GE -14.6%, and IBM -13.4%.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PG	71.02	-0.42	-0.59%	3.17%	0.94%	0.34%	-1.78%	11.54%	0.78%	0.87%
PFE	19.00	0.21	1.12%	1.82%	2.43%	2.65%	-17.07%	7.04%	-10.97%	-24.24%
KFT	33.08	-0.46	-1.37%	0.46%	-5.40%	1.22%	3.21%	14.82%	6.03%	-3.53%
KO	52.57	-1.03	-1.92%	0.17%	-0.28%	1.23%	-13.95%	2.12%	-13.19%	-8.69%
MRK	31.78	0.68	2.19%	-1.06%	-0.19%	-7.35%	-44.61%	-17.35%	-17.15%	-39.06%
WMT	59.73	0.88	1.50%	-1.61%	0.05%	-1.66%	27.36%	5.53%	8.74%	32.35%
VZ	31.24	-0.03	-0.10%	-2.92%	-6.19%	-8.33%	-27.70%	-12.62%	-17.94%	-30.95%
XOM	77.94	0.44	0.57%	-3.36%	-2.10%	3.07%	-16.65%	-11.70%	-11.66%	-14.66%
MSFT	26.32	0.07	0.27%	-3.94%	4.61%	2.61%	-25.27%	1.31%	-9.24%	-10.63%
JNJ	66.16	-1.63	-2.40%	-4.67%	-5.47%	-6.38%	0.38%	1.60%	1.36%	0.09%
MCD	60.23	-1.65	-2.67%	-4.70%	-5.86%	-0.12%	3.67%	5.32%	7.09%	7.34%
JPM	45.90	-3.95	-7.92%	-4.85%	-2.44%	15.91%	8.85%	29.99%	-0.82%	-2.34%
BAC	34.48	-1.89	-5.20%	-6.05%	-8.00%	6.98%	-14.99%	53.93%	-14.59%	-33.60%
T	28.12	0.15	0.54%	-6.27%	-7.59%	-10.73%	-31.41%	-13.69%	-27.92%	-32.92%
MMM	64.60	-1.00	-1.52%	-6.98%	-11.12%	-6.63%	-21.90%	-7.00%	-19.42%	-31.42%
DD	38.80	0.01	0.03%	-7.60%	-19.23%	-12.32%	-11.29%	-7.18%	-20.95%	-21.43%
BA	53.83	0.25	0.47%	-7.70%	-9.92%	-14.41%	-37.85%	-16.50%	-29.30%	-48.60%
GM	9.000	-0.030	-0.33%	-7.79%	-31.19%	-15.97%	-63.13%	-11.07%	-58.31%	-75.99%
CVX	79.38	-0.18	-0.23%	-8.71%	-9.59%	-1.05%	-15.07%	-19.52%	-9.51%	-13.23%
C	18.35	-4.15	-18.44%	-8.93%	-11.14%	-3.78%	-36.55%	9.10%	-24.67%	-61.68%
DIS	29.54	-0.42	-1.40%	-9.80%	-14.10%	-5.80%	-7.22%	-4.40%	-6.31%	-14.92%
INTC	17.31	0.11	0.64%	-9.84%	-9.98%	-16.01%	-31.72%	-16.21%	-21.07%	-32.93%
UTX	54.86	-0.12	-0.22%	-9.86%	-14.68%	-14.39%	-27.06%	-10.14%	-22.47%	-31.14%
HD	23.81	-1.05	-4.22%	-10.02%	-13.01%	-16.72%	-8.81%	5.63%	-18.51%	-29.70%
HPQ	43.00	-0.26	-0.60%	-10.06%	-10.90%	-4.36%	-13.67%	-1.01%	-8.43%	-14.61%
IBM	103.44	-1.30	-1.24%	-13.38%	-12.97%	-9.53%	-1.19%	-13.47%	-10.84%	-11.13%
GE	21.57	-0.58	-2.62%	-14.57%	-18.97%	-22.63%	-41.32%	-19.84%	-43.00%	-48.09%
AA	19.24	-0.14	-0.72%	-18.27%	-28.18%	-32.01%	-46.75%	-41.31%	-50.08%	-48.88%
CAT	51.21	-1.01	-1.93%	-20.15%	-22.98%	-20.07%	-27.50%	-27.17%	-33.55%	-34.81%
AXP	30.87	-1.27	-3.95%	-21.85%	-23.59%	-21.65%	-39.52%	-23.29%	-33.87%	-48.43%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AXP BA BAC C CAT CVX DD DIS GE GM HD HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KFT KO MCD MMM MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on two DJIA components, Procter & Gamble (PG), which is a Cara 100 company, and Home Depot (HD), which is not.

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Google Finance file)
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 3: next one is due Jan. 2)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Google Finance file)
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 3: next one is due Jan. 2)

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With respect to Home Depot, there is very little I like about this company – from the Ken Langone crowd involvement down to plummeting earnings and rapidly slowing momentum for revenue, cash flow, book value and dividend growth.

This company hit the wall almost ten years ago. It was my mistake in not recognizing the facts sooner even though whenever I went into their stores I would usually walk out disappointed. As the important financial metrics declined and management compensation rocketed to ridiculous levels under ex-CEO Robert Nardelli, I should have offed the company from my Cara 100 much sooner than I did. But I kept reading Wall Street research, including from Value Line, that touted the stock as a turnaround, re-org, or whatever else the insiders needed to pump and dump. Fool me once ok; fool me twice, then I’m the fool. Now I realize that what almost assuredly happened was that somebody was paying off Wall Street to keep HD top of mind, while insiders were getting what they could out of the company.

Looking at the Value Line report, where do I start? Firstly, despite the VL forecast, I don’t believe earnings, revenue or cash flow in 2009 will be even as good as the pathetic results for 2008. Margins on operations and for net profit continue to decline.

Even VL analyst Matthew Spencer doesn’t like the situation: “Indeed, comparable store sales fell over 7% in the June interim, a trend we expect to persist over the next several quarters, as the housing market shows few signs of a near-term recovery. In fact, the recent turmoil in the financial markets could make it more difficult for potential home buyers to obtain financing, which may prolong the housing downturn. On top of these factors, consumers are cutting back on nonessential spending…”

So, if you are looking for a beaten down stock of a high quality company, don’t look here.

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Procter & Gamble is on my Buy list for now, but believe me, the stock is relatively over-priced. So, call it insurance in a defensive stock in the Consumer Staples area. In fact, because many people think I should place Wal-Mart into the Consumer Discretionary sector in my studies, P&G would be the 800-pound gorilla in Consumer Staples if I did.

Just like Wal-Mart, I like P&G. Hard working people from Cincinnati, producing great products, with an excellent distribution system. I do have issues with a slightly weakening balance sheet and lower Return on Shareholder Equity percentages in the past couple years, but I like the stability and financial strength. I look to this company for income, largely by writing put options to add to the dividend.

With the high share price today, and the rough consumer environment – even for Staples – I would exercise extreme caution when buying this stock. The price has popped from 66 to 71 in the past few days in what is a safe-haven move.

I’m guessing here because I can’t remember – somebody please check – but I think there would have been a Buy Alert from my simple little system in late June in the very low 60’s, and the +12% to +14% gain in the past three months would be pretty much all she wrote. You get greedy, you get hurt.

As much as I love P&G, PG is not my child. Stocks are not children; they are merely prices. The value in understanding them is in the understanding of trends and cycles.

Hopefully, the next couple of weeks will see broad market forces or insiders or selling by institutions bring PG back to earth, and then we’ll buy it again, maybe at ~65 this time.

If so, I’d count on dividends of $1.55 (2008), $1.78 (2009), and $1.99 (2010). With a price of say 65, you’ll probably average +2.75% dividend yields for the next couple years. Then, if you support that with put write premium income, you can improve that. Let’s say you want capital growth; you’d apply the put premium and dividend income to your cost base, which would take your cost to the high 50’s. Then if you could sell the stock at its peak in 2011 say at $105, you could hit an annualized return of about (say) +22%, which isn’t bad for a defensive stock. A balanced portfolio includes these types of stocks along with the GOOGs and RIMMs.

This is like a chef working in the kitchen with the ingredients that happen to be on the shelf. It all depends on what you want to make for dinner. PG is not beef steak – more like broccoli. Always healthy. But your kids will hate you for it if they are looking ahead to their inheritance.

Anyway, what do kids know?

(smiley goes here because they really do know more than adults care to accept. They know that Washington is screwed up, that politicians are on the take from Wall Street and Big Business. You ask the average teenager today, and they’ll likely tell you that Fannie and Freddie are a mess because they were being protected by Obama and Frank and the President and lawmakers like that. They will tell you they regret not being old enough to get those Liar Loans.)

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports. I added the Google Finance links, which are superb.

General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Google Finance file)
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Google Finance file)
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Google Finance file)
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Google Finance file)
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Google Finance file)
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 25: next one is due Oct. 24)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Google Finance file)
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 25: next one is due Oct. 24)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Google Finance file)
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug 1: next one is due Oct. 31)

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Kraft Foods [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KFT: Google Finance file)
(KFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(KFT: StockChart chart)
(KFT: Billcara2 chart)
(KFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KFT: Value Line Report Aug 1: next one is due Oct. 31)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Google Finance file)
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug. 8: next one is due Nov. 7)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Google Finance file)
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 15: next one is due Nov. 14)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Google Finance file)
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 15: next one is due Nov. 14)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Google Finance file)
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Google Finance file)
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Google Finance file)
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

---

Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Google Finance file)
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

---

JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Google Finance file)
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

---

Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Google Finance file)
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

---

General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Google Finance file)
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 29: next one is due Nov. 28)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Google Finance file)
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance fle)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 29: next one is due Nov. 28)

---

McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(MCD: Google Finance file)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sept. 5: next one is due Dec. 5)

---

Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Google Finance file)
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Sep. 13: next one is due Dec. 12)

---

ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Google Finance file)
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 13: next one is due Dec. 12)

---

Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 19: next one is due Dec. 19)

---

AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Google Finance file)
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Sep. 26: next one is due Dec. 26)

---

Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Google Finance file)
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Sep. 26: next one is due Dec. 26)

---

Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Google Finance file)
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 3: next one is due Jan. 2)

---

Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Google Finance file)
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 3: next one is due Jan. 2)

Wrap-up:

Last weekend, I was getting frustrated with computer or connectivity issues. The problem turned out to be a crappy Internet Explorer (latest beta version). My systems and ISP’s were perfect. Well, now they are more expensive because Microsoft just caused me to lay out a lot of time and money unnecessarily, and Ballmer doesn’t know I’m Scottish-English and Italian, which means that I’m cheap, cranky and fired up. Not a good customer.

Actually a former customer. Now I’m on Firefox.

This weekend I managed to get to the beach – all of 60 steps away from my workstation and patio. If you click on this link from Sandals Cable Beach, you will see the resort map. I live next door, above and between the Regency Room and the Beach Watersports on their site map.

Click on the Beach Watersports link and swing 360 degrees around, past the Hobie Cats until you see the palm trees next door. Above the three yellow kayaks, that door along the pink wall is my door. That’s my beach.

I barely get to use it, but that’s something else.

For the past three days, thinking I would get there a second time in three weeks, I wore my bathing suit all day. I am sure I worked at least 50 hours in those three days. Never made it to the ocean until noon Saturday!

Now you know why I get cranky when I have to spend valuable time reading complaint letters (if you see something, keep them coming) and deleting unwanted remarks in the Discourse.

Believe me when I say this; things will get better. The global economy is not going down the tubes. This is not Great Depression II.

People didn’t like it when, near the top of the market cycle, I was scaring the wits out of them. Now they seem to not like it when I opine that the market’s Bear cycle has been completed.

Doesn’t bother me! Hopefully I saved you some capital on the way down that you can now put to work with prices that are 30% and 40% lower.

Have a great day. If you happen to be at Sandals, and see me on the beach on weekends or after US market hours, please come over. I’ll buy you a beer and we can talk about the good life.

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