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October 21, 2008

Daily Report for Tue, Oct 21, 2008

The final hour of trading is the most important, particularly when emotions are running high, as they are today. Yesterday, the market responded with enthusiasm to close out the session. For the most part, the international markets responded that way as well.

Yesterday, the DJIA (+413.21 +4.67% to 9265.43), S&P 500 (+44.85 +4.77% to 985.40), and NASDAQ Composite (+58.74 +3.43% to 1770.63) continued to rally. In the past six sessions the DJIA is up +9.64%.

The Toronto Composite zoomed +7.2% to 10251.4 and the Venture Board was up +4.10% to 984.94.

Life has taken on a different perspective.

Earlier in the day today, international markets were mostly higher: Australia (+3.7% to 4251.4), Shanghai (-0.8% to 1958.5), Hong Kong (-1.8% to 15041.2), India (+4.5% to 10683.4), and Japan (+3.3% to 9306.3) were, with the exception of China, Hong Kong and South Korea, in rally mode.

In Europe at 8:01am ET (vs 6:54am today), the French CAC +1.2% (+2.3%); German DAX +0.4% (+0.7%) and UK FTSE 100 +0.1% (+0.9%) shows a weakening bias as traders there prepare for a softer US opening.

The sector leaders yesterday were Energy (XLE +11.7%); Utilities (XLU +8.4%) and Basic Materials (XLB +5.1%).

Among the industry groups, the Goldminers ($XAU +10.7%) were strong, but the Oiler and NatGas stock indexes were all up over +11%.

The US long bond ($USB +0.39%) was stronger as yields came down. But, credit markets eased as LIBOR fell. The US T-Bill yield lifted to 1.02%, which was a big move.

Among the Cara 100, there were 94 gainers and 6 losers. But volume was small. The big loser was Brunswick Corp (BC -22.2%), Research in Motion (RIMM -8.6%) and SanDisk (SNDK -7.0%). The winners were mostly the Canadian oilers and miners: Imperial Oil (IMO +16.0%); Suncor (SU +15.3%); Silver Wheaton (SLW +14.9%) and EnCana (ECA) and Teck (TCK) both up +13.2%. Definitely a win for Canada.

With the strength in the $USD today, however, there will likely be some profit-taking.

In futures this morning, the $USD is very strong at 83.92 and Euro is at 132.05.

Crude Oil futures are quite so far at 74.22.

The prices at 8:02am ET (vs 6:55am) for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are weak, at: 778.26 (780.80); 181 (181); 892 (897); and 9.78 (980). US Dollar strength is pushing down on these prices. There is support for gold at 740-750.

The DJIA futures at this time are at 8954 (+184), which hasn’t changed much in the past two hours.

Earnings Season in the US kicks into high gear. Traders responses to the news will speak volumes as to whether they intend to sell here in the expectation the market is going to drop further or whether they are confident enough to continue buying the shares of companies that are meeting or beating expectations.


Comments & Outlook

Yesterday, in a bit of fun, I pronounced, “ It shall not be long before the public starts talking of the good old days. So saith I.” In thunderous approval, the crowd roared and the equity market surged almost five percent.

We can all have fun with these things as long as we understand the bigger point is that education and general information is the service I provide, and that I am like you, a student of the market. None of us have all the answers.

Today, I am concerned that many of you will rush headlong into goldminer stocks without watching the huge upward move yesterday and again this morning in the US Dollar and the downward pressure on the Euro. That dynamic is not a positive one for gold and the precious metals, which are already at prices that are riding critical technical support levels.

With this week’s Bank of Canada decision on monetary policy and the same next week for the Fed, what is happening is a run-up in Dollar strength (supported by the Interventionists) before the market weakness that will follow after Canada and the US central bankers drop their rates.

So, if there is going to be downward pressure on the gold and goldminer prices, get set for it.

What will I be recommending afterwards, following the rate cuts, is a move back into gold and the goldminers. If the Paulson Reflation Program (already causing other governments to do likewise) and the US government Economic Stimulus Package II, which I believe is on the way (by politicians seeking re-election), is going to work, prices of securities and commodities will continue to rally here.

For this reason, I am a strong supporter of gold and the goldminers, but I am also first and foremost an independent trader. I cannot trade against the market forces except at the moment I execute a trade. The latter point is that, in the very short-term, I sell into strength and buy into weakness.

I hope that’s clear.

Enjoy your day.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 15: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 13: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU

Table 12: US Utilities


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 14: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 13: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 21, 2008 08:12:51 AM | Category: Daily Report