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October 21, 2008
Daily Report for Tue, Oct 21, 2008
The final hour of trading is the most important, particularly when emotions are running high, as they are today. Yesterday, the market responded with enthusiasm to close out the session. For the most part, the international markets responded that way as well.
Yesterday, the DJIA (+413.21 +4.67% to 9265.43), S&P 500 (+44.85 +4.77% to 985.40), and NASDAQ Composite (+58.74 +3.43% to 1770.63) continued to rally. In the past six sessions the DJIA is up +9.64%.
The Toronto Composite zoomed +7.2% to 10251.4 and the Venture Board was up +4.10% to 984.94.
Life has taken on a different perspective.
Earlier in the day today, international markets were mostly higher: Australia (+3.7% to 4251.4), Shanghai (-0.8% to 1958.5), Hong Kong (-1.8% to 15041.2), India (+4.5% to 10683.4), and Japan (+3.3% to 9306.3) were, with the exception of China, Hong Kong and South Korea, in rally mode.
In Europe at 8:01am ET (vs 6:54am today), the French CAC +1.2% (+2.3%); German DAX +0.4% (+0.7%) and UK FTSE 100 +0.1% (+0.9%) shows a weakening bias as traders there prepare for a softer US opening.
The sector leaders yesterday were Energy (XLE +11.7%); Utilities (XLU +8.4%) and Basic Materials (XLB +5.1%).
Among the industry groups, the Goldminers ($XAU +10.7%) were strong, but the Oiler and NatGas stock indexes were all up over +11%.
The US long bond ($USB +0.39%) was stronger as yields came down. But, credit markets eased as LIBOR fell. The US T-Bill yield lifted to 1.02%, which was a big move.
Among the Cara 100, there were 94 gainers and 6 losers. But volume was small. The big loser was Brunswick Corp (BC -22.2%), Research in Motion (RIMM -8.6%) and SanDisk (SNDK -7.0%). The winners were mostly the Canadian oilers and miners: Imperial Oil (IMO +16.0%); Suncor (SU +15.3%); Silver Wheaton (SLW +14.9%) and EnCana (ECA) and Teck (TCK) both up +13.2%. Definitely a win for Canada.
With the strength in the $USD today, however, there will likely be some profit-taking.
In futures this morning, the $USD is very strong at 83.92 and Euro is at 132.05.
Crude Oil futures are quite so far at 74.22.
The prices at 8:02am ET (vs 6:55am) for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are weak, at: 778.26 (780.80); 181 (181); 892 (897); and 9.78 (980). US Dollar strength is pushing down on these prices. There is support for gold at 740-750.
The DJIA futures at this time are at 8954 (+184), which hasn’t changed much in the past two hours.
Earnings Season in the US kicks into high gear. Traders responses to the news will speak volumes as to whether they intend to sell here in the expectation the market is going to drop further or whether they are confident enough to continue buying the shares of companies that are meeting or beating expectations.
Comments & Outlook
Yesterday, in a bit of fun, I pronounced, “ It shall not be long before the public starts talking of the good old days. So saith I.” In thunderous approval, the crowd roared and the equity market surged almost five percent.
We can all have fun with these things as long as we understand the bigger point is that education and general information is the service I provide, and that I am like you, a student of the market. None of us have all the answers.
Today, I am concerned that many of you will rush headlong into goldminer stocks without watching the huge upward move yesterday and again this morning in the US Dollar and the downward pressure on the Euro. That dynamic is not a positive one for gold and the precious metals, which are already at prices that are riding critical technical support levels.
With this week’s Bank of Canada decision on monetary policy and the same next week for the Fed, what is happening is a run-up in Dollar strength (supported by the Interventionists) before the market weakness that will follow after Canada and the US central bankers drop their rates.
So, if there is going to be downward pressure on the gold and goldminer prices, get set for it.
What will I be recommending afterwards, following the rate cuts, is a move back into gold and the goldminers. If the Paulson Reflation Program (already causing other governments to do likewise) and the US government Economic Stimulus Package II, which I believe is on the way (by politicians seeking re-election), is going to work, prices of securities and commodities will continue to rally here.
For this reason, I am a strong supporter of gold and the goldminers, but I am also first and foremost an independent trader. I cannot trade against the market forces except at the moment I execute a trade. The latter point is that, in the very short-term, I sell into strength and buy into weakness.
I hope that’s clear.
Enjoy your day.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 15: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 13: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 14: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 13: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 21, 2008 08:12:51 AM | Category: Daily Report








