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October 7, 2008
Daily Report for Tue, Oct 07, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Yesterday was a day when fully 58 of the Cara 100 companies, each of them high quality, reached 52-week lows on the same day. Although it wasn’t compacted into a single day like Black Monday October 19, 1987, or as bad as October 1987 (-24.5%), the past month’s losses (-12.8%) have been quite bad. In 1987, the sell-off took place over two months in total; this Bear has been about 14 or 15 months in duration, and has been just as damaging.
Among the Cara 100 companies, there was not a single gainer on the day. Twenty-five percent of the stocks lost -10.4% or more. That means substantial portfolio wealth was destroyed. In fact, around the world, the losses in equities probably averaged about -6%.
In NY, the DJIA (-369.88 -3.58% to 9955.50), S&P 500 (-42.34 -3.85 to 1056.89) and NASDAQ Composite (-84.43 -4.34% to 1862.96) were crushed. The Toronto Composite (-572.92 -5.30% to 10230.43) and Venture Board (-166.13 12.78% to 1134.10) fared worse; in fact, I believe the high risk-takers on the Venture Board capitulated, which may be a cycle bottom signal.
In NY, all sectors plunged, but volume was exceedingly low. The condition is known as 'in extremis'. The best performers were Industrials (XLI -2.6%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.8%) and Cons. Staples (XLP -2.9%). The worst were Tech (XLK -5.5%), Energy (XLE -5.4%) and Financials (XLF -5.2%). There were many margin calls, and much forced selling via hedge fund failures. Banks were calling loans.
The $USD and $XJY (Japanese Yen) soared as capital was repatriated to pay down debt. The trade-weighted Dollar gained +1.6% to 81.73, and the Yen gained +3.4% to 98.26. Big currency losers were the Euro (-1.9%) and the British Pound and Cdn Loonie each down -1.8%.
The pullback, ie, the safe-haven move from higher-risk securities was seen in the Cara 100 as well as in the currencies and debt markets too.
For the Cara 100, there were zero winners on the day and 25 that lost more than -10.4%, but interestingly very few of the big losers were US-based. In fact, despite about 55% of the Cara 100 being American companies, only the 20th worst performer (AET) and the 25th (NUE) were US ones. The losers were from Brazil, Russia, India and China – the higher-risk emerging economies. That tells me the banks were calling loans, and traders, for their part, were allowing the higher-risk positions to be sold.
Crude Oil ($WTIC, down from 93.88 on Friday am to 90.00 at 8:30am ET, closed down -$6.07/bbl to 87.81, which also dropped because the banks are pulling loans and forcing futures positions to be sold.
$GOLD futures, however, were up from 833.20 on Friday morning to 857.5 at 8:30am ET, closing at +$33.00/oz at 866.20. These contracts are soaring because traders who are not in debt to bankers are hedging this crisis with purchases of gold, and they cannot buy the physicals because the banks have literally stopped selling, which I see as an indication precious metal prices are going higher.
Precious metals spot prices at 7:00am ET today vs (i) 8:33am ET Monday and (ii) vs 8:38am prices on Friday) for gold, palladium, platinum and silver were: 883.16 (856.58) (838.75); 200 (199) (199); 1008 (987) (956); and 11.64 (11.28) (11.16) respectively. Despite a soaring $USD, prices started to lift at about 5:30am ET Monday morning, and continue to move that way today.
Overnight, the Asia-Pacific equity markets closed on the soft side, but distinctively stronger than had been anticipated: All-Ords of Australia (+1.17% to 4597.9 after a big central bank rate cut); Shanghai Composite (-0.73% to 2157.8), Hong Kong (closed), India Sensex 30 (-0.15% to 11783.8) and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-3.03% to 10155.9).
In Europe at 7:00am ET, the French CAC (+1.39%), German (+1.03%) and UK FTSE 100 (+0.70%) have turned higher after the initial sell orders cleared the decks. The last couple minutes is showing even higher prices.
Comments & Outlook
With Europe, oil futures ($2.72/bbl to 90.53), and DJIA futures (reversing from -27 to +46 to +64 every time I check this morning), I would say the equity market in NY will continue to rally and the bond market will give back some of yesterday’s gains where the 30-year long bond ($USB) had gained +1.95% to 121.97. Yields yesterday were plunging, but today will likely move back higher.
ADDENDUM: 8:25am ET
Equity futures have turned quickly negative for some reason. Probably from the margin calls going out this morning!
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 15: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 13: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 14: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 13: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 7, 2008 07:39:53 AM | Category: Daily Report








