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October 7, 2008

Daily Report for Tue, Oct 07, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Yesterday was a day when fully 58 of the Cara 100 companies, each of them high quality, reached 52-week lows on the same day. Although it wasn’t compacted into a single day like Black Monday October 19, 1987, or as bad as October 1987 (-24.5%), the past month’s losses (-12.8%) have been quite bad. In 1987, the sell-off took place over two months in total; this Bear has been about 14 or 15 months in duration, and has been just as damaging.

Among the Cara 100 companies, there was not a single gainer on the day. Twenty-five percent of the stocks lost -10.4% or more. That means substantial portfolio wealth was destroyed. In fact, around the world, the losses in equities probably averaged about -6%.

In NY, the DJIA (-369.88 -3.58% to 9955.50), S&P 500 (-42.34 -3.85 to 1056.89) and NASDAQ Composite (-84.43 -4.34% to 1862.96) were crushed. The Toronto Composite (-572.92 -5.30% to 10230.43) and Venture Board (-166.13 12.78% to 1134.10) fared worse; in fact, I believe the high risk-takers on the Venture Board capitulated, which may be a cycle bottom signal.

In NY, all sectors plunged, but volume was exceedingly low. The condition is known as 'in extremis'. The best performers were Industrials (XLI -2.6%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.8%) and Cons. Staples (XLP -2.9%). The worst were Tech (XLK -5.5%), Energy (XLE -5.4%) and Financials (XLF -5.2%). There were many margin calls, and much forced selling via hedge fund failures. Banks were calling loans.

The $USD and $XJY (Japanese Yen) soared as capital was repatriated to pay down debt. The trade-weighted Dollar gained +1.6% to 81.73, and the Yen gained +3.4% to 98.26. Big currency losers were the Euro (-1.9%) and the British Pound and Cdn Loonie each down -1.8%.

The pullback, ie, the safe-haven move from higher-risk securities was seen in the Cara 100 as well as in the currencies and debt markets too.

For the Cara 100, there were zero winners on the day and 25 that lost more than -10.4%, but interestingly very few of the big losers were US-based. In fact, despite about 55% of the Cara 100 being American companies, only the 20th worst performer (AET) and the 25th (NUE) were US ones. The losers were from Brazil, Russia, India and China – the higher-risk emerging economies. That tells me the banks were calling loans, and traders, for their part, were allowing the higher-risk positions to be sold.

Crude Oil ($WTIC, down from 93.88 on Friday am to 90.00 at 8:30am ET, closed down -$6.07/bbl to 87.81, which also dropped because the banks are pulling loans and forcing futures positions to be sold.

$GOLD futures, however, were up from 833.20 on Friday morning to 857.5 at 8:30am ET, closing at +$33.00/oz at 866.20. These contracts are soaring because traders who are not in debt to bankers are hedging this crisis with purchases of gold, and they cannot buy the physicals because the banks have literally stopped selling, which I see as an indication precious metal prices are going higher.

Precious metals spot prices at 7:00am ET today vs (i) 8:33am ET Monday and (ii) vs 8:38am prices on Friday) for gold, palladium, platinum and silver were: 883.16 (856.58) (838.75); 200 (199) (199); 1008 (987) (956); and 11.64 (11.28) (11.16) respectively. Despite a soaring $USD, prices started to lift at about 5:30am ET Monday morning, and continue to move that way today.

Overnight, the Asia-Pacific equity markets closed on the soft side, but distinctively stronger than had been anticipated: All-Ords of Australia (+1.17% to 4597.9 after a big central bank rate cut); Shanghai Composite (-0.73% to 2157.8), Hong Kong (closed), India Sensex 30 (-0.15% to 11783.8) and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-3.03% to 10155.9).

In Europe at 7:00am ET, the French CAC (+1.39%), German (+1.03%) and UK FTSE 100 (+0.70%) have turned higher after the initial sell orders cleared the decks. The last couple minutes is showing even higher prices.


Comments & Outlook

With Europe, oil futures ($2.72/bbl to 90.53), and DJIA futures (reversing from -27 to +46 to +64 every time I check this morning), I would say the equity market in NY will continue to rally and the bond market will give back some of yesterday’s gains where the 30-year long bond ($USB) had gained +1.95% to 121.97. Yields yesterday were plunging, but today will likely move back higher.

ADDENDUM: 8:25am ET

Equity futures have turned quickly negative for some reason. Probably from the margin calls going out this morning!


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 15: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 13: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU

Table 12: US Utilities


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 14: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 13: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 7, 2008 07:39:53 AM | Category: Daily Report