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October 30, 2008
Daily Report for Thu, Oct 30, 2008
International markets continue in rally mode today along with futures prices of commodities like oil and precious metals.
Yesterday, I stated here, “Clearly, markets are reacting to the actions of central banks and finance ministers. As funds were being received yesterday by US banks, the floodgates to markets opened.” The program of note that was announced Tuesday is called the Fed Commercial Paper Funding Facility.
As of today, the good people of Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Mexico have been provided $30 billion each ($120 billion in total) in US Dollar banknotes.
There seems to be no end of the US taxpayer largesse.
Today in the international markets, there were some massive moves in Japan and Hong Kong. The Japanese Nikkei 225, which next to the NYSE and NASDAQ, is the world’s second most important equity market has soared over +18.1% this week so far. The also important Hong Kong market is now up +13.6% as well this week. In the conventional use of the term, these are almost Bull Markets in three days.
Australia (+3.98% to 3957.3), Shanghai (+2.55% to 1763.6), Hong Kong (+12.82% to 14329.9), and Japan (+9.96% to 9029.8) had powerful moves.
In Europe today at 7:00am ET, the French CAC +1.5%; German DAX +4.7%; and UK FTSE 100 +1.9% were all higher. By 8:00am ET, the FTSE was up +2.2% and the DAX up +4.8%.
This morning at 7:00am ET, the DJIA futures have moved up +316 to 9170. By 8:00am, they were at 9165.
Yesterday, the DJIA -74.16 -0.82% to 8990.96), S&P 500 (-10.32 -1.11% to 930.09), and NASDAQ Composite (+7.74 +0.47% to 1657.21) reflected a -360 point sell-off in the DJIA index in the closing 12 minutes. There have been some pretty strange end-of-day market moves for the past week in NY.
Yesterday, the Toronto Composite lifted +349.9 +3.82% to 9501.56, while the Venture Board, which contains the listings of mostly negative cash flow companies, ie, those relying on the confidence of independent traders as well as credit from their bankers, fared quite well, gaining +5.07% to 858.32.
Despite a massive sell-off in the last 12 minutes in NY, strangely there were no 52-week lows in the Cara 100, and 25 of the 100 stocks were up at least +5.3% on the day. The big winner (drum roll please) was Silver Wheaton (SLW +25.1% to US$3.59), which is now up +38.6% in the two sessions since I made known my strong views that the company was ok and SLW was a stock to buy.
The Cara 100 loser yesterday was KB, down -14.6%, but with the $30 billion bail-out package sent by the Fed to the South Korean central bank today, I suspect KB too will be just fine.
The big sector losers yesterday in NY were Financials (XLF -6.2%) and Tech (XLK -3.9%). The winner was Basic Materials (XLB +4.1%).
Banks ($BKX -3.6%) were losers and Goldminers again were huge winners ($XAU +10.7%). Oil Services ($OSX +7.2%) were also winners.
The $USD, $CDW and $XBP had break-out moves after having been net flat since Friday. The $USD (-2.42% to 84.63) was the loser, as anticipated, with the Fed rate cut by -50basis points to 1.00%. The Pound rallied +2.69% to 1.6351, and the Loonie rocketed +3.88% to 81.44. The Euro (+1.75% to 1.2958) and Yen (+0.57% to 102.86) were also strong. The Yen rallied as funds were sent back into equities without their being a rate cut by the BoJ.
The US long bond ($USB -1.14% to 115.03) was hammered again as traders’ funds moved into equities. But the T-Bill rate fell to 0.565%, which shows more doubts about inter-bank lending.
At 8:00am ET (&:00am in brackets), the spot price of gold, palladium, platinum and silver was: 766.88 (771.40), 200 (200), 844 (852), and 10.00 (10.07) respectively. You can see a bit of softening.
The $USD has strengthened a bit in the past hour from 84.265 to 84.665.
Comments & Outlook
I am not yet convinced the US market is ready to soar, but the pivot point is looking more and more like it’s based on the election results. As I stated here yesterday, “I think the real big money is staying on the sidelines until the managers see the results of the US election next Tuesday. A 60 seat win in the Senate would help along with wins in the House and Presidency. Then the regulatory-crazy Democrats (assuming they win) will be able to bring in legislation that radically changes the regulatory landscape that has led to the problems in markets today… As you know I am all for that. But the public must still be concerned that the Dems don’t over-do it. Ultimately, even with radical surgery, the market still needs less regulation. What the market needs is something akin to significant breast reduction.”
The bankers will likely not start lending to one another until they see the election outcome and make a decision then to act in their best interests. They may even want to see who the next Treasury Secretary will be. I imagine they are pining for a return of their hero, Mr. Moral Hazard, to that post. Hopefully, we’ll never see that day.
So, the only aspects of the market that interest me until election day are precious metals and the dual-listed equities from countries like Brazil, South Korea, Singapore and Mexico. If the price of Crude Oil and Gold continue lifting, then Canadian, Australian and Russian equities will also benefit.
Here in Nassau Bahamas, for those more interested in the weather, the winds have dropped, and now coming out of the NNE and swinging around to a warmer easterly breeze, which will take the chill out of the air. It’ll be mostly sunny and I’m guessing the high today will be 80-81.
Another day in paradise.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 15: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 13: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 14: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 13: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 30, 2008 08:18:51 AM | Category: Daily Report








