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October 30, 2008

Daily Report for Thu, Oct 30, 2008

International markets continue in rally mode today along with futures prices of commodities like oil and precious metals.

Yesterday, I stated here, “Clearly, markets are reacting to the actions of central banks and finance ministers. As funds were being received yesterday by US banks, the floodgates to markets opened.” The program of note that was announced Tuesday is called the Fed Commercial Paper Funding Facility.

As of today, the good people of Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Mexico have been provided $30 billion each ($120 billion in total) in US Dollar banknotes.

There seems to be no end of the US taxpayer largesse.

Today in the international markets, there were some massive moves in Japan and Hong Kong. The Japanese Nikkei 225, which next to the NYSE and NASDAQ, is the world’s second most important equity market has soared over +18.1% this week so far. The also important Hong Kong market is now up +13.6% as well this week. In the conventional use of the term, these are almost Bull Markets in three days.

Australia (+3.98% to 3957.3), Shanghai (+2.55% to 1763.6), Hong Kong (+12.82% to 14329.9), and Japan (+9.96% to 9029.8) had powerful moves.

In Europe today at 7:00am ET, the French CAC +1.5%; German DAX +4.7%; and UK FTSE 100 +1.9% were all higher. By 8:00am ET, the FTSE was up +2.2% and the DAX up +4.8%.

This morning at 7:00am ET, the DJIA futures have moved up +316 to 9170. By 8:00am, they were at 9165.

Yesterday, the DJIA -74.16 -0.82% to 8990.96), S&P 500 (-10.32 -1.11% to 930.09), and NASDAQ Composite (+7.74 +0.47% to 1657.21) reflected a -360 point sell-off in the DJIA index in the closing 12 minutes. There have been some pretty strange end-of-day market moves for the past week in NY.

Yesterday, the Toronto Composite lifted +349.9 +3.82% to 9501.56, while the Venture Board, which contains the listings of mostly negative cash flow companies, ie, those relying on the confidence of independent traders as well as credit from their bankers, fared quite well, gaining +5.07% to 858.32.

Despite a massive sell-off in the last 12 minutes in NY, strangely there were no 52-week lows in the Cara 100, and 25 of the 100 stocks were up at least +5.3% on the day. The big winner (drum roll please) was Silver Wheaton (SLW +25.1% to US$3.59), which is now up +38.6% in the two sessions since I made known my strong views that the company was ok and SLW was a stock to buy.

The Cara 100 loser yesterday was KB, down -14.6%, but with the $30 billion bail-out package sent by the Fed to the South Korean central bank today, I suspect KB too will be just fine.

The big sector losers yesterday in NY were Financials (XLF -6.2%) and Tech (XLK -3.9%). The winner was Basic Materials (XLB +4.1%).

Banks ($BKX -3.6%) were losers and Goldminers again were huge winners ($XAU +10.7%). Oil Services ($OSX +7.2%) were also winners.

The $USD, $CDW and $XBP had break-out moves after having been net flat since Friday. The $USD (-2.42% to 84.63) was the loser, as anticipated, with the Fed rate cut by -50basis points to 1.00%. The Pound rallied +2.69% to 1.6351, and the Loonie rocketed +3.88% to 81.44. The Euro (+1.75% to 1.2958) and Yen (+0.57% to 102.86) were also strong. The Yen rallied as funds were sent back into equities without their being a rate cut by the BoJ.

The US long bond ($USB -1.14% to 115.03) was hammered again as traders’ funds moved into equities. But the T-Bill rate fell to 0.565%, which shows more doubts about inter-bank lending.

At 8:00am ET (&:00am in brackets), the spot price of gold, palladium, platinum and silver was: 766.88 (771.40), 200 (200), 844 (852), and 10.00 (10.07) respectively. You can see a bit of softening.

The $USD has strengthened a bit in the past hour from 84.265 to 84.665.


Comments & Outlook

I am not yet convinced the US market is ready to soar, but the pivot point is looking more and more like it’s based on the election results. As I stated here yesterday, “I think the real big money is staying on the sidelines until the managers see the results of the US election next Tuesday. A 60 seat win in the Senate would help along with wins in the House and Presidency. Then the regulatory-crazy Democrats (assuming they win) will be able to bring in legislation that radically changes the regulatory landscape that has led to the problems in markets today… As you know I am all for that. But the public must still be concerned that the Dems don’t over-do it. Ultimately, even with radical surgery, the market still needs less regulation. What the market needs is something akin to significant breast reduction.”

The bankers will likely not start lending to one another until they see the election outcome and make a decision then to act in their best interests. They may even want to see who the next Treasury Secretary will be. I imagine they are pining for a return of their hero, Mr. Moral Hazard, to that post. Hopefully, we’ll never see that day.

So, the only aspects of the market that interest me until election day are precious metals and the dual-listed equities from countries like Brazil, South Korea, Singapore and Mexico. If the price of Crude Oil and Gold continue lifting, then Canadian, Australian and Russian equities will also benefit.

Here in Nassau Bahamas, for those more interested in the weather, the winds have dropped, and now coming out of the NNE and swinging around to a warmer easterly breeze, which will take the chill out of the air. It’ll be mostly sunny and I’m guessing the high today will be 80-81.

Another day in paradise.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 15: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 13: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU

Table 12: US Utilities


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 14: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 13: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 30, 2008 08:18:51 AM | Category: Daily Report