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October 23, 2008
Daily Report for Thu, Oct 23, 2008
Yesterday morning I forewarned of “fast markets” where the $USD had soared overnight, with the prices of commodities and securities plunging. I said “traders are freezing up” and going to cash in the form of the $USD, profits are being taken, and precious metal prices were weak. Nothing is new this morning.
I am not surprised with yesterday's final result in equity, debt, forex and commodity markets because these markets are all inter-related. But I was taken aback by how quickly the price of gold dropped through the technical support I saw at 740-750.
At the end of the day all we saw was panic. The principles of trading no longer apply. I said that yesterday and for some reason was criticized for being a messenger. The facts are clear: (i) I don’t own this market (ii) I trade for myself (iii) trading in a panic situation requires minute-to-minute decisions, which cannot be written up in a free blog like this, and (iv) the public – you and me – have no advance knowledge of what and when the Interventionist finance ministers, central bankers and money center bankers are doing to impact prices, so we have to wait for it.
It is what it is; I am merely, like you, an observer.
Having said that, I continue to believe the market is transitioning from Bear to Bull and that panic selling is the wrong thing to do because well-heeled traders are buying up great values in the market today that will be seen in six months to a year to be absolute steals.
Yesterday, the DJIA -514.45 -5.69% to 8519.21), S&P 500 (-58.27 -6.10% to 896.78), and NASDAQ Composite (-80.93 -4.77% to 1615.75) were smashed again, once again late in the session. In fact, the DJIA plunged -430 points in less than 200 minutes at the end of the day before rebounding +150 points in 13 minutes heading toward the close.
Day traders are making a fortune. It is a fact that most of those traders work for banks. Mom & Pop, on the other hand, are having their accumulated wealth, built up over generations, destroyed. Such is the state of the market today.
The Toronto Composite sank -559 -5.71% to 9236.9 and the Venture Board dropped -68.8 -7.09% to 900.63.
There was no sector leader in NY yesterday. The best of the lot was Consumer Staples (XLP -1.6%). The big loser was Energy (XLE -9.7%). There were many sectors down over -5%.
Among the industry groups, the Goldminers ($XAU -16.3%) were smashed, which is a two-day loss of about -27%. The Oil Services index ($OSX -13.4%) was also hammered.
Risktakers are fleeing the market because credit has dried up. The banks are trying to stem the run on deposits, which is causing the banks to call demand loans, which are the type used by market speculators. Most of the speculation is related to commodities. The result is obvious. The Goldbugs have departed the dance floor. Last ones off.
As capital is repatriated to the US and Japan to pay off loans, the $USD and $XJY soared yesterday by +1.48% and +2.58% to 85.62 and 102.25 respectively. With the rate cut by the Bank of Canada, the Loonie plunged, as anticipated, by a phenomenal one day loss of -3.37% to 79.79. The British Pound also plunged -2.74% to 162.71and the Euro sank -1.67% to 128.59.
The US long bond ($USB +0.60% to 115.86) was stronger again as yields came down due to the influx of $USD from abroad as traders sought the safest havens. The US T-Bill yield dropped from 1.095% to 1.010%, which was a reflection of panic in the markets as traders jumped into cash and near-cash.
Among the Cara 100, there were just 4 winners: Ch Robinson (CHRW +9.5%) had a big up day due to a positive Q3 earnings report. But 25 stocks of the Cara 100 companies were down -10.2% or more on the day. SNDK (-31.6%) was worst hit after a proposed buy-out was killed because of no credit facilities being available. GOL -24.0%, MBT -19.9%, TCK -19.4%, SLW and ABV were down -18.9% on the day. These are Black Monday (Oct 19, 1987) type numbers.
Earlier in the day today, international markets tumbled again: Australia (-4.39% to 3939.3), Shanghai (-1.07% to 1875.6), Hong Kong (-3.55% to 13760.5), India (-3.92 % to 9771.7), and Japan (-2.46% to 8461.0) were beaten up badly, but not as much as the prior day.
In Europe at 8:30am ET (7:35am today), the French CAC -3.05% (-2.78%); German DAX -3.97% (-3.46%); and UK FTSE 100 -2.32% (-1.92%) are bad and getting worse at mid day. Traders are waiting for somebody to hit the Buy button in the US, but that never seems to come until after Europe is closed.
In futures this morning an hour ago, the $USD was at 86.08, but it’s now 86.49; and the Euro has moved from 128.09 to 127.55. This is a continuing panic move into the $USD.
Crude Oil futures dropped to 67.88 an hour ago and now are down to 67.38.
The prices at 8:34am ET (vs 7:35am today) for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are very weak, and weakening, at: 706.94 (710.40); 167.5 (169.5); 800!! (802); 9.38 (9.375). As stated yesterday and the day before, the “US Dollar strength is pushing down on these prices”. But now even much lower prices are being forecast by some analysts.
The DJIA futures at this time are at 8444 -113, but an hour ago were 8522 -35, which shows weakening that is consistent with European equities and the strengthening of the $USD and weakening of commodity prices and precious metals in the past hour.
Earnings Season in the US may have kicked into high gear, with mixed results, but traders are totally focused on the $USD, the credit market melt-down and the lack of leadership from the Treasury Secretary.
Comments & Outlook
No further comment as the bigger financial system crisis picture is again the one under greatest scrutiny today. These are not markets for traders who have a time horizon longer than maybe 30 minutes.
My long-term perspective remains bullish because there are values to be bought that six months to a year from now will probably look like phenomenal bargains. To each his own.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 15: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 13: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 14: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 13: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 23, 2008 08:49:22 AM | Category: Daily Report









