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October 23, 2008

Daily Report for Thu, Oct 23, 2008

Yesterday morning I forewarned of “fast markets” where the $USD had soared overnight, with the prices of commodities and securities plunging. I said “traders are freezing up” and going to cash in the form of the $USD, profits are being taken, and precious metal prices were weak. Nothing is new this morning.

I am not surprised with yesterday's final result in equity, debt, forex and commodity markets because these markets are all inter-related. But I was taken aback by how quickly the price of gold dropped through the technical support I saw at 740-750.

At the end of the day all we saw was panic. The principles of trading no longer apply. I said that yesterday and for some reason was criticized for being a messenger. The facts are clear: (i) I don’t own this market (ii) I trade for myself (iii) trading in a panic situation requires minute-to-minute decisions, which cannot be written up in a free blog like this, and (iv) the public – you and me – have no advance knowledge of what and when the Interventionist finance ministers, central bankers and money center bankers are doing to impact prices, so we have to wait for it.

It is what it is; I am merely, like you, an observer.

Having said that, I continue to believe the market is transitioning from Bear to Bull and that panic selling is the wrong thing to do because well-heeled traders are buying up great values in the market today that will be seen in six months to a year to be absolute steals.

Yesterday, the DJIA -514.45 -5.69% to 8519.21), S&P 500 (-58.27 -6.10% to 896.78), and NASDAQ Composite (-80.93 -4.77% to 1615.75) were smashed again, once again late in the session. In fact, the DJIA plunged -430 points in less than 200 minutes at the end of the day before rebounding +150 points in 13 minutes heading toward the close.

Day traders are making a fortune. It is a fact that most of those traders work for banks. Mom & Pop, on the other hand, are having their accumulated wealth, built up over generations, destroyed. Such is the state of the market today.

The Toronto Composite sank -559 -5.71% to 9236.9 and the Venture Board dropped -68.8 -7.09% to 900.63.

There was no sector leader in NY yesterday. The best of the lot was Consumer Staples (XLP -1.6%). The big loser was Energy (XLE -9.7%). There were many sectors down over -5%.

Among the industry groups, the Goldminers ($XAU -16.3%) were smashed, which is a two-day loss of about -27%. The Oil Services index ($OSX -13.4%) was also hammered.

Risktakers are fleeing the market because credit has dried up. The banks are trying to stem the run on deposits, which is causing the banks to call demand loans, which are the type used by market speculators. Most of the speculation is related to commodities. The result is obvious. The Goldbugs have departed the dance floor. Last ones off.

As capital is repatriated to the US and Japan to pay off loans, the $USD and $XJY soared yesterday by +1.48% and +2.58% to 85.62 and 102.25 respectively. With the rate cut by the Bank of Canada, the Loonie plunged, as anticipated, by a phenomenal one day loss of -3.37% to 79.79. The British Pound also plunged -2.74% to 162.71and the Euro sank -1.67% to 128.59.

The US long bond ($USB +0.60% to 115.86) was stronger again as yields came down due to the influx of $USD from abroad as traders sought the safest havens. The US T-Bill yield dropped from 1.095% to 1.010%, which was a reflection of panic in the markets as traders jumped into cash and near-cash.

Among the Cara 100, there were just 4 winners: Ch Robinson (CHRW +9.5%) had a big up day due to a positive Q3 earnings report. But 25 stocks of the Cara 100 companies were down -10.2% or more on the day. SNDK (-31.6%) was worst hit after a proposed buy-out was killed because of no credit facilities being available. GOL -24.0%, MBT -19.9%, TCK -19.4%, SLW and ABV were down -18.9% on the day. These are Black Monday (Oct 19, 1987) type numbers.

Earlier in the day today, international markets tumbled again: Australia (-4.39% to 3939.3), Shanghai (-1.07% to 1875.6), Hong Kong (-3.55% to 13760.5), India (-3.92 % to 9771.7), and Japan (-2.46% to 8461.0) were beaten up badly, but not as much as the prior day.

In Europe at 8:30am ET (7:35am today), the French CAC -3.05% (-2.78%); German DAX -3.97% (-3.46%); and UK FTSE 100 -2.32% (-1.92%) are bad and getting worse at mid day. Traders are waiting for somebody to hit the Buy button in the US, but that never seems to come until after Europe is closed.

In futures this morning an hour ago, the $USD was at 86.08, but it’s now 86.49; and the Euro has moved from 128.09 to 127.55. This is a continuing panic move into the $USD.

Crude Oil futures dropped to 67.88 an hour ago and now are down to 67.38.

The prices at 8:34am ET (vs 7:35am today) for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are very weak, and weakening, at: 706.94 (710.40); 167.5 (169.5); 800!! (802); 9.38 (9.375). As stated yesterday and the day before, the “US Dollar strength is pushing down on these prices”. But now even much lower prices are being forecast by some analysts.

The DJIA futures at this time are at 8444 -113, but an hour ago were 8522 -35, which shows weakening that is consistent with European equities and the strengthening of the $USD and weakening of commodity prices and precious metals in the past hour.

Earnings Season in the US may have kicked into high gear, with mixed results, but traders are totally focused on the $USD, the credit market melt-down and the lack of leadership from the Treasury Secretary.


Comments & Outlook

No further comment as the bigger financial system crisis picture is again the one under greatest scrutiny today. These are not markets for traders who have a time horizon longer than maybe 30 minutes.

My long-term perspective remains bullish because there are values to be bought that six months to a year from now will probably look like phenomenal bargains. To each his own.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 15: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 13: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU

Table 12: US Utilities


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 14: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 13: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 23, 2008 08:49:22 AM | Category: Daily Report