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October 3, 2008

Daily Report for Fri, Oct 03, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Potential rallies are being snuffed out by fear mongering and by concerns that politicians and regulators in Washington are out of control. The only winners appear to traders who withdrew all capital from the market the moment that Lehman Brothers and the other large banks reported failures.

Also threatening, today’s events will include: (i) (at 8:30am ET) the US Employment Report for September, which had been expected to be a particularly bad one after eight months of job losses, and was (see below), and (ii) (in the afternoon) the US House of Representatives vote of the Wall Street bail-out package, which promises to be riveting television.

As for yesterday, the DJIA (-348.22 -3.22% to 10482.85), S&P 500 (-46.78 -4.03% to 1114.28), and NASDAQ Composite (-92.68 -4.48% to 1976.72) were crushed.

The Toronto Composite (-814 -6.95% to 10900.5) and Venture Board (-94.7 -6.73% to 1312.0) were even worse hit.

The leading sector in NY was Healthcare (XLV +0.2%), while all the rest were sold off heavily: Basic Materials (XLB -7.2%), Industrials (XLI -6.0%), Energy (XLE -5.7%) and Financial (XLF -5.0%) were the worst.

There were no leading industries. The goldminers ($XAU -15.5%) and Oil Services ($OSX -10.4%) were the worst hit. The selling was on low volume, which makes it apparent that many sales were forced by margin calls. This was not panic selling.

The leading Cara 100 stocks were: SNDK (+4.9%), IBN (+2.3%), PG (+0.2%) and DNA (+0.0%). The worst hits were: POT (-27.0%), GG (-27.5% to 26.57), TCK (-15.7%), SLW (-15.6%), PDA (-15.4%), RIO (-15.0%). Again, when you see the stock of a food processor and an agri-chemical company down like this among the metals, you have to figure there are margin calls.

There were only three stocks of the Cara 100 that traded high volume yesterday: GE, SYT and POT. The latter two are fertilizers, so that would indicate a hedge fund was being closed down or a major bank had issued a negative report, or both.

GE has been falling as traders are pricing in the terrific deals that Warren Buffett and others are getting on the issuance of new capital stock.

On the economic front, the data is very weak, and traders are concerned about the seriousness of the recession. Today’s US Jobs Report shows an estimated loss of 159,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.1%.

The US Treasury market was pumped up again on a safe-haven switch to debt. The long bond ($USB) lifted +1.00% to 119.39, which is a two-day gain of almost +2.0%. Yields are falling; the 3-month T-Bill is now yielding just +0.59% p.a. Yields plunged again as traders are concerned about the failure by Washington to resolve the credit market issues.

The $USD gained +1.14% to 80.55. After 8am ET today it was

Crude Oil ($WTIC -$4.56/bbl -4.63% to 93.97) and $GOLD futures (-$43.00/oz -4.85% to 844.30) were crushed, likely on forced selling. With the likelihood of the multi-trillion dollar reflation programs required to stabilize financial services providers and capital markets, $GOLD futures are most likely to lift after the first of several bail-out packages is legislated in the US.

This morning, the Asia-Pacific equity markets closed lower: All-Ords of Australia (-1.49% to 4702.8), Hong Kong (-2.90% to 17682.4), India Sensex 30 (-4.05% to 12526.3) and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-1.94% to 10938.1).

In Europe at 8:38am ET, the French CAC (-0.31%), German (+0.01%) and UK FTSE 100 (-0.34%) are quiet and flat.

The futures at about 8:38am ET (after the US Jobs Report was released) are: $USD (80.60) and Euro (138.45), not showing much movement.

Spot prices at 8.44am ET (vs 8:08am prices) for gold, palladium, platinum and silver were 841.25 (838.75), 190 (199), 949 (956), and 11.39 (11.16) respectively. These prices show more weakness in the plat and pall but a small lift in gold and silver. Not too encouraging at this point.

Nov. Crude Oil is 94.04. The DJIA futures are down just -17 to 10530.


Comments & Outlook

I continue to believe that equity markets are finding a bottom here and that the stocks of good quality companies should be bought. The NASDAQ at 1976.72 has exceeded my call for a drop to 2000 made a year or more ago at much higher prices. The DJIA at 10482.85 is just a few points off.

Watch volumes. Once you see the volumes soar, I think the equity market will lift. But this is a precarious point in time. There are calls by astute analysts like Catherine Austin Fitts and Nouriel Roubini who are opining that the worst is yet to come. With the unwinding of the credit default swap market, that is quite possible.

But I place my confidence in the monetary authorities of the G-8 (plus China) to stabilize this mess caused by the major banks.

I continue to be bullish with a long-term view.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 15: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 13: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU

Table 12: US Utilities


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 14: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 13: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 3, 2008 08:58:51 AM | Category: Daily Report