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October 3, 2008
Daily Report for Fri, Oct 03, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Potential rallies are being snuffed out by fear mongering and by concerns that politicians and regulators in Washington are out of control. The only winners appear to traders who withdrew all capital from the market the moment that Lehman Brothers and the other large banks reported failures.
Also threatening, today’s events will include: (i) (at 8:30am ET) the US Employment Report for September, which had been expected to be a particularly bad one after eight months of job losses, and was (see below), and (ii) (in the afternoon) the US House of Representatives vote of the Wall Street bail-out package, which promises to be riveting television.
As for yesterday, the DJIA (-348.22 -3.22% to 10482.85), S&P 500 (-46.78 -4.03% to 1114.28), and NASDAQ Composite (-92.68 -4.48% to 1976.72) were crushed.
The Toronto Composite (-814 -6.95% to 10900.5) and Venture Board (-94.7 -6.73% to 1312.0) were even worse hit.
The leading sector in NY was Healthcare (XLV +0.2%), while all the rest were sold off heavily: Basic Materials (XLB -7.2%), Industrials (XLI -6.0%), Energy (XLE -5.7%) and Financial (XLF -5.0%) were the worst.
There were no leading industries. The goldminers ($XAU -15.5%) and Oil Services ($OSX -10.4%) were the worst hit. The selling was on low volume, which makes it apparent that many sales were forced by margin calls. This was not panic selling.
The leading Cara 100 stocks were: SNDK (+4.9%), IBN (+2.3%), PG (+0.2%) and DNA (+0.0%). The worst hits were: POT (-27.0%), GG (-27.5% to 26.57), TCK (-15.7%), SLW (-15.6%), PDA (-15.4%), RIO (-15.0%). Again, when you see the stock of a food processor and an agri-chemical company down like this among the metals, you have to figure there are margin calls.
There were only three stocks of the Cara 100 that traded high volume yesterday: GE, SYT and POT. The latter two are fertilizers, so that would indicate a hedge fund was being closed down or a major bank had issued a negative report, or both.
GE has been falling as traders are pricing in the terrific deals that Warren Buffett and others are getting on the issuance of new capital stock.
On the economic front, the data is very weak, and traders are concerned about the seriousness of the recession. Today’s US Jobs Report shows an estimated loss of 159,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.1%.
The US Treasury market was pumped up again on a safe-haven switch to debt. The long bond ($USB) lifted +1.00% to 119.39, which is a two-day gain of almost +2.0%. Yields are falling; the 3-month T-Bill is now yielding just +0.59% p.a. Yields plunged again as traders are concerned about the failure by Washington to resolve the credit market issues.
The $USD gained +1.14% to 80.55. After 8am ET today it was
Crude Oil ($WTIC -$4.56/bbl -4.63% to 93.97) and $GOLD futures (-$43.00/oz -4.85% to 844.30) were crushed, likely on forced selling. With the likelihood of the multi-trillion dollar reflation programs required to stabilize financial services providers and capital markets, $GOLD futures are most likely to lift after the first of several bail-out packages is legislated in the US.
This morning, the Asia-Pacific equity markets closed lower: All-Ords of Australia (-1.49% to 4702.8), Hong Kong (-2.90% to 17682.4), India Sensex 30 (-4.05% to 12526.3) and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-1.94% to 10938.1).
In Europe at 8:38am ET, the French CAC (-0.31%), German (+0.01%) and UK FTSE 100 (-0.34%) are quiet and flat.
The futures at about 8:38am ET (after the US Jobs Report was released) are: $USD (80.60) and Euro (138.45), not showing much movement.
Spot prices at 8.44am ET (vs 8:08am prices) for gold, palladium, platinum and silver were 841.25 (838.75), 190 (199), 949 (956), and 11.39 (11.16) respectively. These prices show more weakness in the plat and pall but a small lift in gold and silver. Not too encouraging at this point.
Nov. Crude Oil is 94.04. The DJIA futures are down just -17 to 10530.
Comments & Outlook
I continue to believe that equity markets are finding a bottom here and that the stocks of good quality companies should be bought. The NASDAQ at 1976.72 has exceeded my call for a drop to 2000 made a year or more ago at much higher prices. The DJIA at 10482.85 is just a few points off.
Watch volumes. Once you see the volumes soar, I think the equity market will lift. But this is a precarious point in time. There are calls by astute analysts like Catherine Austin Fitts and Nouriel Roubini who are opining that the worst is yet to come. With the unwinding of the credit default swap market, that is quite possible.
But I place my confidence in the monetary authorities of the G-8 (plus China) to stabilize this mess caused by the major banks.
I continue to be bullish with a long-term view.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 15: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 13: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 14: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 13: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on October 3, 2008 08:58:51 AM | Category: Daily Report








