Just for the record, the four countries are Brazil, South Korea, Mexico and Singapore.

LD

in general, everything played out exactly as Vad envisioned..which is not surprising, as we all know people act in predictable patterns-> we just don't know how far they'll go or when they'll do it...

Time machine; How about "Ground Hog Day"

..maybe i should say crowds act in predictable patterns..

Wow -

scratching my eyes and looking at this gdp report.

what country are we in?
that number is not the same country that i live in...

make that "act in predictable behavioral patterns"..

"what country are we in?
that number is not the same country that i live in..."

exactly

I am interested in gold and its price. I am not experienced in it...however; I would like to know the communities experience and thoughts about its direction. Thanks

Cara 100 News:

CSCO - numbers cut at Morgan Stanley through 2010. Channel checks suggest that demand is weakening. Overweight rating and new $24 price target.

GS - Merrill cuts estimates on Goldman. Estimates were cut for 2009. Company is seeing weaker banking results, and the recent government financing will dilute earnings

Will be watching these things for today:

1) Volume in the major market indexes. In order to turn the trend from bearish to bullish, the market needs to see a 3%-4% move up (or more), accompanied by HUGE volume. The volume back on Oct. 23 and Oct. 28 was encouraging, but still not anywhere near what occurred in Sept. and early October.

2) Whether the S&P can take out yesterday's high of roughly 970, and close above it. But as mentioned, it needs to have the necessary volume as well.

3) RSI 7 on major market indexes at or near 50, which has been mentioned as possible resistance areas during bear market rallies. Back on Sept. 19, which was the last time the DJIA touched the 50 DMA, the RSI got as high as 56.

earnings for AEM and ABX released, losses and write downs thrown in the pile. may as well get as much bad news out of the way while stock price has been in the tank.

with gold bouncing off the $760 level, it would be great to see a strong finish into the close towards $770 to mitigate any bad news on the miners earnings front. (if that even makes a difference anymore)

I would be careful here....if everyone is headed north it seems too obvious.

I bet on selling into the open.

Gold's price is, to a fair degree, subject to the same forces of monetary supply and demand as other commodities (housing, cars, bar mitzvas etc...) The more money there is available to chase, the higher the prices go.

As we've seen in the recent selling the babies got tossed out with the water. I have long ago concluded that it's not the price of apartments, houses, land and that change particularly but rather, the value (availablility of credit in our debt-based world)of money that is the key determinant of price. Of course, within the context of that notion true forces of supply and demand operate (more Camaros sold than Buick skylarks or whatever)but I see those traditional notions of demand as being secondary.

Thanks guys for the morning info - just wondering what today's balancing act will look like after yesterdays nosedive close.

good call craig.

USD under pressure hit .8938 USD/CAD and already up 1.5% this AM, TSX UP 222

didn't the week in review a while ago state that gold miners would lead this rally?

looks like the past two days might be the start of something good!

Sandvik (SDVKY, SAND.ST, site sandvik.com) had a good report, is up 10% or so, best today in the Swedish OMX.

They are what I believe is called "late cyclical" (not sure of that), in any case they are only just now Sept. - Oct. starting to notice significant problems in their markets.

CFO said "between clenched teeth" something like "we are now prepairing for what is to come". They do not however intend to reduce their sales force, as they want to take market share during the downturn.

I did not get any SDVKY as it never went under $5 - I was too stingy. I will not chase it now, as the best buying opportunity I believe will probably not be until late next summer at the earliest.

Good interview with Ingvar Kamprad today in Dagens Industri (di.se, Swedish only). Ikea is reducing their expansion plans to "only 10 or so stores / year) instead of the usual 20 - 25.

Ingvar, now 80 years old, is still known to appear unannounced at 5 AM at the loading docks of Ikea stores around the world.

Unfortunately you can not buy Ikea stock, it is and has always been privately held. This is the kind of private co. I would love to get in on the ground floor of. Let the mafia have their public markets for themselves.

Cara 100 Update:

WFMI - Downgraded to Sector Perform @ RBC. Price Target - $11

---------------------------------------------------

Perhaps the RBC ANALyst just arrived here from another solar system. ;^)

Oil bulls note - crude is down some today, USO is testing it's intraday down channel from above.

USO just barely managed to break out yesterday.

It has to catch fire & move up sharply from here, otherwise watch out.

sold partial slw 4.08

GS - it used to lead the djia buy the hand - not so lately.

SLW I see as having resistance at all the round numbers 4 - 5 - 6 etc.

5 & 9 are probably more important levels.

SLV is not yet up as much as I would like today.
It has to keep moving up of course, if it collapses back down SLW will too.

Bill or any other participants: Does anyone have a relatively current list of major gold miners proven and probable reserves vs market cap? Many thanks

David- congrats...as of right now, you have a 46% return on your credit-card backed position in WGW...

Volume light so far across the indices. People maybe afraid to chase, or Bill's comment about smart/big money on the sidelines?

trailing 1.5 buy stop on EEV

95% of the CD's available at Schwab have payouts at maturity as opposed to monthly. Almost the entire offering is by Morgan, Goldman etc. This has happened within the past week or two. If you go to Bankrate you can easily beat the interest by almost 1%. What's the point with offering that crap.
The ad I get all warm and fuzzy with is by CountryWide where they say "Feel the Thrill of Saving". I would really be thrilled with a 7% interest rate on my cash. Maybe if Obama makes it he'll bring Volker on and my dream will come true.

Cara 100 Update (Final):

Upgrade:

AMAT - to Buy @ AmTech Research

Price Target Lowered:

AET - from $36 to $29 @ Credit Suisse
SU - from $57 to $45 @ Barclays

I am going to try to sell some UXG into this strength. Wish there were still options being traded on this symbol!

where is the volume?

kind of hard to believe this rally without it. it feels like i am skating on thin ice. or catching good waves in too shallow water

bc 101

check out resourcestockguide.com

lots of info on miners there...

USO just broke back down into it's intraday down channel.

As I wrote yesterday, I still see another move down for oil.

This one may however be the last one.
I'm surrounded by oil bulls, there everywhere I look there are oil bulls.
When these early probably overly leveraged bulls get taken to the cleaners will be the time to buy I'm thinking.

i don't believe volker's policies are going to fix the big picture of our economic headwinds.

granted they probably shouldn't have cut as low as they have, hmm.. lets see. Well it appears the cuts since bear sterns haven't' worked well (gave it 6 months). the TED is actually wider today after the cut yesterday.

lower rates aren't working, higher rates work? why not. who knows...
problem is the assets (black holes) on many balance sheets of many institutions.

norm said:

"problem is the assets (black holes) on many balance sheets of many institutions."

That, and the country is broke; along with very poor leadership at many levels.

RosevilleBill,
You don't think they will rely on Ben to do it do you? He only knows how to rain money, the mop up is another thesis...LOL!

SLW is a leveraged call option on silver with strike price $9.

A lot of resource companies can be describe that way.

COSWF (see article below), just as an example, has a strike price of $45 crude if I read this correctly.

Canadian Oil Sands Trust announces third quarter 2008 results and a reduction in the quarterly distribution to $0.75 per Trust unit

"Having assessed these new market conditions, Canadian Oil Sands has decided to reduce the quarterly distribution amount to $0.75 per Unit to protect and maintain a strong liquidity position and financial flexibility during this market turmoil. Our $1.6 billion net debt target by the end of 2010 remains unchanged, but we must now consider more carefully the refinancing of approximately $500 million of 2009 debt maturities in addition to the incremental leverage to meet our objective. Until debt capital markets are available to execute this strategy on an efficient basis, Canadian Oil Sands will prudently preserve its liquidity by managing the rate at which its leverage rises. Should bank facilities or debt markets not be available to fund our mid-2009 debt maturities, further distribution reductions may be required in order to fund maturities out of cash from operating activities. With the significant cash flow we continue to generate at current oil prices and the $840 million of undrawn credit facilities, we are strongly positioned until the financial turmoil subsides."

"Our current marginal operating cost is about $35 per barrel and our sustaining maintenance capital requirements are about $10 per barrel."

if i read the report correctly, it looks like consumer spending dropped 3% in q3, which is before the really bad part of the crisis hit. i wonder what kind of hit it will take in q4.

on another note, it looks like the TED spread has halted its move up. its back down about 5%.

To really fix the problem long term you need capital....that is *savings* and savers need reward for saving. That is the only way, beside attention to the other side of the ledger, expenses.

Volcker, or Volcker's methods of mopping up all this liquidity will reesult in $USD shortage/demand in comparison, but it will drive interest rates higher which will encourage savers seeking a real return. We need to do this for years. It will make consumerism if not die, severely limp.

Hearing helicopters over my house, maybe Bernanke is coming by to drop some jack in my back yard.

Nahh, it's the secret service patroling the air for the impending arrival of Senator Obama who is having a rally not more than a 10 minute walk from my house.

I thought about attending, then decided against fighting the crowd. They expect 10,000.

I doubt he (or any other politician) gives a hoot what Todd the Carpenter has to say anyway ? :)

bsi87,

You stated that you've put in a bid for FXP at $83.

Interestingly, Tim Knight (Slope of Hope) is also buying FXP.

http://slopeofhope.com/2008/10/30/buying_puts_on_fxp.htm

May I ask your reasons for buying? And what is your target exit-price? Tks

Continuing my thoughts yesterday about the consequences of the debt debacle being moved from the corporate level to the sovereign nation state level.

I would be careful shorting guvm'nt bonds near term, the biggest part of the world wide treasury supply glut seems to be coming 1Q 2009.

Then too, guvm'nts will try all the tricks to hock their bonds at good prices, like calling in all outstanding favours, pressuring big national pension funds, etc., to eat as much as possible, etc.

I see this as being deflationary, or at least disinflationary, for as long as it goes on - the world's guvm'nts have decided to play bank, and to do that they will want all the capital for themselves. They will suck the credit markets dry and redirect the money supply to try to fill in the black holes in their cronies' banks & to their other pet projects.

If I am right, and the black holes cannot be filled in, we eventually get to the point that sovereign nation states cannot sell any more debt because there is no-one else left to buy - everyone that can or wants to has already bought. Isn't that the classic condition in the end of a bull market?

Then as the politicos realize they are losing control, we may find ourselves - not in hyperinfaltion as they print money like mad, but a situation more resembling "back in the USSR", with guvm'nt decreed 5 year plans and state allocation of all resources.

Still trying to get my head around where all this might end up.

craig -

you are right -

but that still won't fix job losses, more foreclosures, commercial real estate bubble that is bursting as consumers stop spending.
maybe we are in the 5th inning of the game.

there should be a lot of banks that need to go bust, "poof".

fed is running out of bullets, i thought they only had blanks.

pappdjavul, I'm looking at the hourly chart on USO and it broke above its downtrend line yesterday. Right now, it's coming back down to that trendline as support.

All the shorter-term charts show the oscillators ready to cycle back up.

No position here, but I was looking at DIG for a trade if that support holds.

long EEV at 94.38.

Trend is up. Penetrated the 50 DEMA.

Small position.

Now for some macro observations ...

I have been at my Phuket home for the last 3 months after an extended spell in South Africa.

Two absoluting contrasting interest rate policies.

South Africa always at the ready to impose punitive interest rates, supposedly to curb inflationary pressures.

Thailand, thanks to Thaksin, adopted a low interest rate policy.

So far, those countries with high interest rates have seen runs on their currencies in the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade and the repatriation of "hot" investment monies.

What both countries have is a lack of fiscal discipline and a political unwillingness as in the USA to balance the books.

South Africa is now courting disaster as it breaks the financial backs of both the old white middle class and the emerging non white one on the rack of entitlements and the boondoggle that is FIFA 2010. Don't worry, the mines will continue to produce and pay their bakshish.

Thailand's whole future is now pinned on the health of its monarch. Interpreting Thai TV news is second nature for Kreminolists. The Crown Prince is rarely shown and when his current consort is featured she merits fewer on creen minutes than the King's grandchildren.

There may well be internecine fighting that will let off some steam but only so long as the present King is around is there anyone to stop its escalation to full scale civil war.

Somehow the the Thai baht has defied all the political uncertainty and retained its lofty valuation which has killed many of the country's export industries.

I regret I do not have the link but I read somewhere the Thais are hoping that the Chinese provide $150 billion in standby credit. Somehow I can't see the Chinese bailing out the Thai property sector when they believe their own property bubble was out of hand.

The Bangkok condo market already peaked 2 years ago and there will be hefty losses there for the local banks as there were in the late 90's. This time added in the mix is a booming commercial real estate sector that is providing first world infrastructure beyond Bangkok but is unsustainable.

So despite some compelling values on the local stock market, I fear there's a real currency risk investing in Thai value stocks at this time.

And getting back to South Africa, the financials and the consumer stocks there may be bombed out, but there's a lot of damage ongoing in the local economy.

Any specific questions, fire away!

Thanks rob d, that is excellent

I ran across this article...it is long.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rozeff/rozeff236.html

"the only free enterprise in America today is when young boys shoot marbles for keeps ..."

-- Norman Thomas, socialist, 1956

Good morning to all..

Welcome back shark.

Happy to hear about your mom.... speedy recovery

Bill...Good Heart.

SV

"you are paying for this mess laid at your feet by bankers, regulators and free-spending law-makers."

Yep, and our childern, childrens children, etc... will also be paying. Unless of course USA manages to discover/generate enough wealth to offset these costs... Entrepreneurship isn't a main theme in our schools as far as I'm aware, and original thinking hasn't been encouraged since about the time chemistry sets were stripped of the real goodies and replaced with baking soda.

We'll see...

That's right, they will suck capital markets dry like they did in the 70's. That is demand and it will drive interest rates higher as business competes with government for capital. We have seen this before. Now imagine they will also need to pull that same liquidity back out too...to somehow hold the lid on inflation.
We knew it as stagflation and it's coming.
All the while trying to get housing going with high interest rates. My 1983 mortgage was 9.5%
It's coming...

Craig
If morgage of 9.5 or higher coming
what will it do to housing price?

I very nearly sold into that rally...

re:FXP/EEV

both are in LT uptrends. FXP 26 week EMA at 94.48, EEV 101 and change.

FXP max pain 105 for Nov, 100 for Dec. 20% upside means buying 84 for Nov and 80 for Dec. Just rough targets. Tim bought at the 200 DEMA for FXP. 10 day ATR is 29 for FXP so I thought it'd get to 86 minimum.

EEV pretty similar. 145 max pain for Nov. so anything below 116 appears to be a good price. It hit the 200 DEMA around 92 so an entry at that level isn't too bad. moves 30 pts + per day.

See, Todd, I can be a bear too when the price is right. LOL

You are right Norm, it is going to be painful.

Paying off debt is always painful unless you are *producing* and then you are likely relying on past *investment*. Don't tell me I know.....

Chickenpookie
yes, they sold the rally
Craig mention this will happen
so brought OEX put at open and work out o.k

bsi87

I'm more neutral than anything, as I don't hold any stocks short, or have any short ETFs.

I am, and have been, in a watch and wait mode.

long slw 3.81

That's why it's called stagflation Vinod.

There will likely be special programs for first time home buyers and there will be high interest rates for CD's. MM accts, possibly government incentives for capital infusions by citizens.
Some real free market stuff but I don't see them trying those yet.

For instance, and this will scare the heck out of you for what we just went through, my 9.5% mortgage was a fannie mae and all I had to do was *sign my name*. No qualifying, no income, no nothing.

We are in serious trouble....."My Friends".

USO has 2007 low at 42.56.

Preferred scenario is it washes out below this level in some sort of kama-kazi dive - that would be a buy op, even if only short term.

If it just keeps dribbling down at it's current rate of descent, not sure I would be a buyer there either.

well Todd,

some trade, some don't.

GL

bsi87,

Tks for sharing your thoughts.

I am too slow (and chicken) to catch FXP.

Living in Asia, I can't stay up to watch the fast-moving US markets.

For peace of mind, I better turn to bed now. Cheers.

stopped out of MAC,FXI,PCAR for 10%+ gains in about 2-3 days.

Higher financing cost will mean lower housing price inflation, I would anticipate. The home I bought back in '71 for $45k and sold this spring at $880k had the majority of gain while interest rates were low (the last 15 or so years). Yes, If I recall the original loan rates on that property were double digit... Imagine that! And everyone scoffs at a 6% rate these days, I laugh.

bought some eslr mar 5 call

anyone know of good quality wind power companies?
i know ABB,siemens, and vestas... any other recommendation?

pappdjavul, you could be right about oil. But I'm looking at the daily chart, too. And it shows a classic Elliot Wave 5 down. So it may go up from here in a correction.

For now, that trendline support is still holding on the hourly.

Most here should know that I've been way of sync with the markets lately, so take what I say with a big grain of salt.

I'm trading very small positions now with tight stops. Right now, it's more about improving my skills trading and managing risk than trying to make lots of dough amidst all this volatility.

Random observation:
What is it in a young black Senator that Buffett and Volcker find attractive? He seems to relate to older people.

Could it be this person isn't what we think?

I'm wondering what kind of values a person would have if raised by his/her grandparents. Probably more conservative old world savings type values than most people these days.

Just a random thought.

out slw 3.92

tightening IMO sell stop limit order

Can anyone explain why SU has been getting hammered so much worse than IMO. IMO is down 25% over the past month while SU is down 45%. Underwater in both positions but much more in SU.

http://tinyurl.com/5foub8

TIA

Adam

Right. It's monetary inflation and deflation/stagnation at the same time.

It royally sucks. But...when they come...lock in those high interest rates for as long as possible. :>)

Well well. There you are, shark. Welcome back.

And if anyone said anything untoward, we take it all back.

(I also don't quite trust SLW around now....or maybe it's just a little too cagey for me.)

re: SU

Max pain shows 25 for SU for Nov while IMO shows 40.

In my opinion, SU has to be at 20 bucks or lower to go long, IMO 32.

gc
GE, make turbines.

Hi,

As many of you are aware, I have been scaling, back into the office, mostly only coming in for half a business day. The good news is that I will be running the entire work day as of late November, early December

Cool.

Thank you for all your care and support during these last months.

Now, trading:

Bill's comment Re Gold are right on the mone, although I do not exclude the possibility of a visit to 630 / 650, just to shake out weak hands before the new run starts.

I am only waiting for a post-electoral signal that it is off to the races.

Have a great day.

regarding SU - I think it has to do with SU being oil sands...from the Motley fool:

"Don't take this smattering of small snafus as a sign that Suncor is subpar. Oil sands mining and upgrading has more in common with the operations of a Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) or a Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) than those of a ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP). If you follow the miners, you know that nothing ever goes quite as planned."

http://tinyurl.com/5sk8fh

I obvioously meant "right on the money".

SU has had issues on getting refinery capacity back up from August maintenance and there is perception they are a high cost oilsands producer and the drop in oil has mirrored the drop in SU. BTW most investors are failing to factor the lower cost deck of a decimated CAD $

We'll have to have high rates to offset monetary inflation, so now is definitely not the time to buy long term bonds.

stopped out of TXN. in at 16.50, out at 18.50

GC

If you haven't already, take a look at FAN at a way to catch a little wind.

I think $USD is going to cap this thing.
Its showing a little strength.

stopped out of IMO in at 29.35/out 34.17

stopped out of BDK in 46.38/out 48.69

thanks 401kmatters and yvrapx :^)

Right C, that *is* the TOG.

PBW has way more volume than FAN. Seems to trend the same way.

Interest rates

Back around 1981, (give or take a year) while living in D.C., one of the guys (fellow worker) actually had an 18% mortgage! I felt lucky because I had secured a 9.5% less than a year before that.

The place to be was to pick up a L/T 30 year Treasury bond paying around 18%. Think it may have hit 20% or close to it around that time also. FWIW.

BC showing signs of life this morning boys and girls, resuscitation in progress?. Someone seems to like it, hopefully not gamblers...

out of AEM

Hey guys,

Thank you all for all of your support.

Re:SLW I bought it as a very short term trade. As you know I prefer the shortest optimum holding periods. SLW did not qualify as a "buy" for a daytrade today (yet) as it has not exceeded it's opening range by a certain percentage and stayed there for, say, half the time period of that opening range (a so-called "A-up in the parlance of the great Mark Fisher, read "The logical Trader" if you have not yet done so). But what I did was bought it at the bottom of it's range for a short pop, I like to take big size for short little moves. Bear this in mind when reading my picks.

Seamus
18% sound good.
I will stop playing stock market trying to make
few buck with each trade.

SU doesn't have a real dividend, has incredibly high costs and are delaying their expansion til next year.

i think according to the news release, SU's cost to extract oil is approximately $37 USD/barrel. keep that in mind when you are buying shares.

"Then as the politicos realize they are losing control, we may find ourselves - not in hyperinfaltion as they print money like mad, but a situation more resembling "back in the USSR", with guvm'nt decreed 5 year plans and state allocation of all resources.

Still trying to get my head around where all this might end up.

Posted by: pappdjavul"

Answer: At the liquor store.

Seamus - Another place to be is in a 30yr fixed at sub 5%, which might just have to happen in order to get the housing market on it's feet. Ya gotta live somewhere... Such loans would likely only be available to qualified applicants (i.e. first time buyers) and probably not assumable.

Actually, re: SLW, I was just steamed that it was lukewarm the day before yesterday when everything else exploded, so I declined to buy more, only to see it more than make up for it the next day. SLW and I are not on speaking terms at the moment.

anyone noticing the horrible tape on GS?

in looking at this chart (which compares the Japan housing price index during its bubble some 20 years ago to the U.S.'s index right now) it's easy to see the fear about home prices continuing to decline. the long term appreciation of home prices for the past 120 years is roughly 3% or the long term inflation rate. home prices jumped 3 fold from 1995 to 2005.

the long term ratio of median home prices to average household income is 3.0. it currently is 4.0 ($195k home price / $50k household income). the argument can be made for another 24% decline in home prices. however, we all know that bubbles that pop tend to shoot further to the downside than the historical averages. and given that the rate of unemployment is continuing rise, wage growth will fall. it has during every recession. so if household income were to fall to $45k, for example, then the argument could be made for another 35% decline in home prices. the first 20% decline that just occurred had a pretty negative effect on the economy and the markets...

here is the link:

http://tinyurl.com/5f66kc

yvrapx,

Re my neg comments on MFC yesterday @ 2:16PM I should correct one item in error - MFC bought John Hancock ( Boston ) not Hartford Group as stated. In light of HIG's price crash today I thought you should know. I still stand on neg toward MFC, now apparently the largest insurer in the USA. DYODD, and good luck!

Craig,

Regarding obama's values -

What could buffet and volcker possibly see in an oreo raised by grandparents and birthed by mixed race parents???

Interesting question you raised.

Well, perhaps they were able to put themselves in Obama's shoes and noted the challenges he had in getting to where he is today after growing up in a society that disapproved of your color, disapproved of your parents being mixed (talk about turning heads), disapproved of being raised by grandparents. ( I would have caved along time ago. ) Maybe they are willing to bet for the candidate who has risen above all obstacles can talk with a clear, calm cool head.

Talk about character, strength, respect and VALUES.

He is remarkable and to me, the first great leader since John F. Kennedy. He represents all walks of life. He understands differences in backgrounds and cultures since he lives it daily.

Obama is an educated, brillant person who seeems to be able to relate to all walks of life. He is a Global thinker. He makes a plan (look how he has run his campaign). He is open minded to changes along the way. (flexibility).

I know people today who like obama but "just can't vote for a black man". They can't fathom how a black person could possibly be our next president so they think there must be a secret plot or agency behind Obama who sponsored his campaign -possibly muslim terrorists.

vinod - 18% - There will be inflation, so the rate...

ok. here comes some sellers. maybe i will start to bargain hunt for some other stocks.

Still in slw. not worried yet

bsi - thanks for continuing to post your in/out movements.

TerryC,
Thanks and am aware of the Hancock acquisition, the Napolean complex has run MFC the past number if years. I agree with you on neg view of MFC just trying to suss out a few loose ends. Have been a shareholder in Sunlife since the Clarica days and watched it lag MFC as MFC acquired everything in sight.

Obama - This mess occurred on someone else's watch.

John Hancock was pride of Boston
Contributing vast amount to local charity and community organization
After MFC acquire it thing change

n2son,

I do not trust EW or other normal equity chart patterns in commodities.
Even in equities, obvious patterns will get broken when it's crunch time.

("n2 son" - are you Chinese? just curious, I studied Chinese many years ago, had a lot of Chinese friends, even a Chinese girl friend for a short time in my college years.)

Housing Market - The Bear that roared around the world!

out of BID/LAMR

pappdjavul, chart patterns only help me in assessing risk and probabilities. Today, yet again, I was wrong. Stopped out of DIG at a small loss.

Back to assessing my mistakes -- today, it was mistake going long on such a strong open. We'll probably have a steady drip down through the end of the day.

Nope, I'm not Chinese. But I am my mother's second son. ;)

SLW can go down to 3, i.e. fill about 1/2 of yesterday's gap, and still come out bullish.

Actually that could be the most bullish variant.
If it holds around the highs for a day or two, it might just collapse suddenly instead of moving up.

Honestly I have a hard time seeing silver moving up if everything else in commodities, including oil & gold, is taking another trip down.

But I still see a turnaround / bullish case for SLV & SLW, and not for anything else - yet.

teamonfuego - Excellent 11:45am post. Thank you.

vinod

Strictly from memory, it was a time of high inflation and high unemployment. An city like Detroit had something like 19% unemployment. Rest of the nation not quite that high, but high enough. Volker was the Fed Chief and did what he had to do despite the criticism.

CP

If one could (can) obtain a 30 yr. sub 5% fixed mortgage, you hit the jackpot. Don't think we'll see that here in this time period--actually anything below 6%, I'd consider very good. Historically a 6 handle is pretty good.
One of my current mortgages is a 15 year fixed @ 4.75% and I feel lucky to have locked that in a few years back.

not liking the action in gold.
it still seems to be brief upward spikes that get trumped by hard drives down erasing any gains.

gold stocks getting hammered along w/ it.

USD having a little bounce back this morning. we need some big drops in the USD to light a fire under the miners.

dr.cosa you are on the money, USD is almost flat since the open and is looking at moving up again...

All the money being pump in the financial market around world
I thing explosive upward move is coming and will not surprise to see over 1000 point rally

BC - Bill must be buying today, it's picking itself up off the mat in a big way. It just amazes me how resilient this one has been, declare your div and it's off to the races....

re:TM

hitting 50 DEMA from below. see what happens.

Obama: Best orator since Reagan, if not better..more like Kennedy. Brilliant, yes...but I'm not that endeared to much of the thinking produced in the Ivy League schools. Take a look at some of the course offerings.

I find campaigns to be marketing...operations, an entirely different story.

We're probably headed for FDRs "New Deal II" only this time we're already in hock up to the eyeballs. Buffet and Volcker are only window dressing at the moment. If you do what Volcker had to do in the early 80's, how do you do "New Deal II"????

Seamus - Yea, here's a trick - Relocation packages and paying down points to lock a low rate 30yr. It worked for me...

Chickenpookie
No, Bill is not buying BC he is buying big Boat from BC. So he can take us all for nice cruse with
Plenty of beer in it

Bull/Bear: 30/70.

Is anyone attending the E*Trade Canada Technical Analysis Summit presented by the Financial Forum in Toronto/Canada this coming Saturday, November 1, 2008?

I have not yet made a decision, but it is likely I will attend. Would be interested in meeting other followers of this Blog who are attending. If you don't post here you can email me at bernard_f (at) ymail (dot) com. Thanks. [068]

HEADS-UP!

Behind the scenes. Looking forward a few days, something to consider reference USD.

From Chuck Butler's Daily Pfennig reference USD after yesterday's weakness: " . . .Of course this all could be wiped out by the fact that tomorrow is month-end, and we could see some adjustments being made in foreign stock funds... Let me explain... These foreign stock funds are off by quite a bit this month, and since they are foreign stock funds, they are denominated in foreign currencies... So, to adjust the amount of currency needed to fund the well, fund... These funds might have to sell currencies tomorrow. So, keep that in mind... But after yesterday's performance, who knows?"

So, some could be shook out of positions as USD strengthens for a day, but it may be an opportunity to hop the train leaving next week or in the near future. (after the election?)

I should confirm the BC order book and change my flight schedule, vinod - The clambake is on Bill's new boat!

I realize that the upcoming election looms large and a discussion is natural, but come on ....."McShame" yesterday and "oreo" today.

Shark - That Bahama ticket offer hasn't expired.

Anyone here remembers the infamous Paul Van Eeden's interview with Howard Green a few months ago on BNN, where he warned of the impending doom and said he was moving to cash (and had Howard seemingly lost)? Does he look like a genius now or what!

important thing is we keep testing and bouncing up off the 9000 Dow mark. but that can change in seconds these days

Craig, vanillabean - on Obama

Vanilla, well PUT. Barack is amazing. His video is worth watching if only for the artistry, and sincerity. Whenever Clinton spoke, I felt somewhat "slimed" - even when I agreed with him. Obama seems sincere to me. And he exudes competence, and confidence.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtREqAmLsoA

This is the best piece of political communications I have ever seen. Craig, the way he ties his family experience to empathy with average families to policy prescriptions suggests he grew mightily from his "mixed race" youth, and being "raised by grandparents".

And if you look at it, those features are common in most of the world. The American "nuclear family" is the oddity.

Think of it, Obama rose from the field of democratic candidates as an untested, unknown, inexperienced politician. His campaign has been masterful. I'm ready to entrust America's messes to him!

I just hope Cheney or Bin Laden don't interfere with desperation tactics.

"How many times did I write about out-of-control credit default swaps and why Henry Paulson was parachuted into the Administration in July of 2006?"

Now there's a hiney that sure deserves a good old fashioned paddling. I'm doing my best. Getting this guy and his likes out of there would make my voting decisions automatic.

SiO2 - "Does he look like a genius now or what!"
Affirmative, I'll go along with that.

nemo,

Obama was a good enough campaigner to sucker me once. As a salesman he's great, but so far we has nothing to show for his Illinois Senator job. I don't think either (any) of the candidates has much chance of "fixing" the mess we are in. Not in four years, not in eight.

This bipartisan dilema has been nearly two decades in the making (about 2X what it took to bring on the 1929 to 1940 depression). It took a decade and finally a major war to undo that one — with a lot of trial and error — before the boost to manufacturing put a huge number of people back to work.

Perhaps in 5 to 10 years we can restore our manufacturing base and start turning out real "things" for people to buy. The information/IT revolution has been a loser since day one. It is very low in labor usage and each new generation of products is less of a money maker. In 1993 I paid $45.50 per MB to add memory — in 2003 it cost me $0.26 per MB.

I spent over $100 on hardware, software, maintenance and continuous retraining as upgrades made it all obsolete. (One $10,000 set up lasted less that three years and I sold it to our local school system for $175.)

Between 1990 and 2006 I went through 12 computers, 5 printers, 2 scanners and countless applications and upgrades in a one-person graphics studio.

For comparison, I still drive my 1991 VW Jetta GLI every day without any major modifications or difficulty getting service and parts.

One of my most rewarding IT days was when I took a balky hard drive to the rifle range and shot it with my 1873 Springfield. (Hey, I could start a service for people afraid to junk a drive full of info — it's very effective.)

Just another article on gold http://tinyurl.com/6kwolm

Remember, after WWII we were the ONLY country with a manufacturing base.

I might disagree a bit on IT. One of the big benefits Clinton received during his reign, besides Greenspan, was it was the first time where the promise of the PC actually met some of it's hype. Primarily because of networking and the internet, information could, relatively cheaply, be exchanged between applications. I think that is an underappreciated part of the 90's

Is PPC going Bankrupt?

ALOHA !!

GDP is a bogus number like CPI is, due to the "inflation deflator" which like CPI is always weighted in favor of data that benefits the agenda of Hank and Ben(fiat)! Even so the consumer spending drop was the largest drop since 1980.

I distilled our problems to two sentences out of the entire GDP report.

#1-"Economists say the weak economy will damp inflation pressures eventually."

Okay, you mean like in Japan, where its too expensive to live any more in their deflated economy?

The there is this where the only real spending increases show up. GUESS WHO IS SPENDING?

#2-"Federal government spending increased 13.8%, after rising in the second quarter by 6.6%. Defense spending surged 18.1%. State and local government outlays rose 1.4%, after going up by 2.5% in the second quarter."

WOW ... look at that Defense spending go!!! Hey, anyone buying LMT? So long as there is a COLD WAR 2 and IRAQ WAR and the NEW WARS coming the defense contractors will profit! QUE PASA? WHAT RECESSION? WE DUN NEED NO STINKIN' RECESSIONE!"

All the US government spending is doubling up ... yet "the weak economy will dampen inflation pressures eventually." Ask people living in TOKYO how they like their dampened prices after 20 years of deflation?

BEAUTIFUL ...

I'M VOTING RON PAUL!!!

JACK,

IF OBAMA WINS TUESDAY HE WILL BE AWARDED AND LAUDED AND GRAND ACCOLADES WILL BE PLACED ON HIM.........ETC, ETC....

PERSONALLY,IT WILL BE NAUSEATING.......

HIS REAL SKILL IS TO TALK ABOUT NOTHING AND MAKE HIS AUDIENCE FEEL GOOD.........MAKING A VOTING BLOCK FEEL GOOD IS HUGE TODAY....

SIMILIAR TO LETTING ALL KINDS OF PEOPLE ATTEMPT TO OWN A HOME WHO HAVE NO BUSINESS DOING SO....SOUND FAMILIAR?

IF THE MARKET LIKES A DEMOCRAT WIN OF THE WHITE HOUSE AND SENATE....BRING IT ON....

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is up another 40% this morning after gaining 80% yesterday, when Singapore’s government pledged support for the completion of a $4B casino, which may have squeezed the stock's - and gaming sector's - substantial short interest

N2son, Pappdjavul, re Gold / commodity charts…interesting subject..

I agree with you, any technical analysis on these types of charts is difficult and can be misleading.

Gold for example is the same all over the world, a gold bar can be redeemed for the same value in a specific country no matter where that bar originally came from. The problem is how do we plot the price action of gold without embedding the chart with currency exchange.

Here is a chart I put together of Gold in US$ and Can$ along with the exchange rate at the bottom. When exchange is fairly constant the chart behaves well, but with sudden changes all the trends, support / resistance levels etc are now very different for both charts. Are the bars different in the two countries, No, it’s the underlying currency fluctuations driving the chart, which are difficult to isolate from whats actually driving gold the metal.

http://tinyurl.com/6hm3b2

The very basic problem with these charts from a TA perspective, is we assume constant unit factors, ie; on the time scale a day is the same number of minutes anywhere on the chart (yesterday, last week, last month). However the price scale is in dollar units which DO NOT have the same value day to day on the chart.

Just looking at this interesting discussion from another view point, subject to change without notice.

Hello everyone,

New to the board. Anyone have any opinions on Minefinders(MFN) down at this level? Thanks.

Disclosure:
I vaguely remember being an idealist in the 60's as a young man, like many of you here.
Listening to Obama speak recently, I see energy, immense competency, and 20/20 vision...seeing what is to be done. He is not a self-indulgent boomer like Paulson and crew. I see that the idealism of youth still burns in him. He has small children, how can he think of sabotaging the world that they are about to inherit? He is a lawyer, he knows the law and it is on his side.

He's been a leader for many years on the way up.
I see him as a breath of fresh air, fresh energy, an outsider in Washington, tho' being handled by the old guard obviously.
But I think the old guard will be relieved if he tackles greed and corruption, and a few people are asked to leave Washington when he takes over. After all, it is more difficult to maintain all the ruses and lies, than it is to be honest and do the job you were sent there to do: Represent the People!

To me the election result is assured. Can we have contributions on how this might affect stocks and bonds?

I hope you are reading my Obama post with the positive spin it is intended to communicate.

I watched the entire 1/2 hour presentation last night, it was masterful yet safe which is good.

I was just thinking, there is so much spin and politiking with words like socialist and terms like income redistribution, and it seems to me that someone raised by white grandparents would tend to exude the values of older Americans, not the spendthrift views projected upon him. Older values like living within one's means, working hard, studying hard, caring for others.

Craig

Agree again about rates from your post above.
More I think about it that is the BEST case scenario.

Case two Japan 2.1.- liquidity trap, lost decade two (we are getting past lost decade one) Rates stay a negative real return for a decade or so. It has already been over a year.

There are to many spades (institutions) until the system is purged they will have to keep the policies that obviously are not
working.

Problem. They don't trade with another instead they can go to uncle Sam and get money for free. Why trade with siblings when dad will from you the money. That is a good deal till dad passes.

The commercial paper facility is great until the gov stops it. Then what???

Other policies, then what?

As far as can be seen there are still black holes on balance sheets.
Until those get fixed we have a challenge. Hopefully soon.
Oh, not to add more problems but we can't discount the forex issue too. ROW isn't happy and may do something dumb, out of fear an greed. We are way to far down the rabbit hole to get crazy.
My two cents.

Good morning! My WGW purchase at $0.51 a couple of days ago is working out so far. :) Having a feeling that the pressure is coming off the PM miners, I decided to use the opportunity of the still low $CAD and just bought 2000 shares of NOT.V at $0.71US. If I had more spare cash, I would be buying GG now, but I think WGW and NOT.V might double much sooner than GG.

if gold recovers back above $750 today and gains in the gold stocks hold, i think it will be taken as a very good short-term signal building into a mid-term rally.

these plunges on the way down would see quick bounces before basing then plunging down again. if we see a plunge followed by a consolidation and gradual rise back that can hold, it may be part of a sea-change in the POG imho. for now $750-$775 seems to be a battle ground for someone. if and when gold moves above $800 i think its time in the "8" handle range will be swift as we move towards $900 catching people off gaurd

but this is all predicated on the USD which looks like it will ride down in quick sudden plunges back to 80 on the index. as always just imho.

good luck.

nemo - I agree, my background is IT. The internet, IT investment and hype drove the Clinton economic miracle, which ended almost exactly when GB took office. Then Greenspan brought us the miracle we enjoy today.

Now the central banks are working on a miracle to fix Greenspan miracle, while IT is pushing cloud computing and the internet continues to evolve. Only time will tell if we learned anything.

vinod - Do I hear an LVS short sentiment growing?

vanillabean- good to see the kid from Alabama going with Obama...

JohnE:

No. Plu cest change, plu cest le meme chose.

NOT..if it goes to it's 52 week low of .60 cents cdn i'm in....

hope it goes that low??

JohnE
Last i checked short interest went down
http://tinyurl.com/6x3479

LMT - I don't see how government spending can continue at this pace. It absolutely has to slow down.

Quasi -

re charting in different currencies,

I once (10 years ago?) did an experiment charting AZN in SEK, GBP & &USD.
AZN is a Swedish - Brittish pharma co. that is traded heavily in both Sweden & the UK, but also fairly heavily in the US.

Often on the same day I could see a bullish, bearish & neutral picture on the 3 charts - go figure. I finally gave up, could not get any new info out of that work.

Having said that, I think it is becoming much more important these days to keep track of what is happening between countries, at the forex exchange level, and also sovereign debt level.

10% - 20% moves in forex over a few days are big trouble for many companies.

"Having said that, I think it is becoming much more important these days to keep track of what is happening between countries, at the forex exchange level, and also sovereign debt level."

Where have we heard that before???

Okay, somebody talk me down....

The Whitehouse announces that it's okay for banks to pay bonuses and "performance pay" to bankers with taxpayer dollars, "they're keeping an eye on it."

Can someone here tell me how we justify "performance pay" to anyone getting government handouts? What performance?
Are they talking about the clown performance we are witnessing?

vinod - Thank you. On another note uup seems to have two day range bound proclivity. 22/23, 27/28, now 29/30

Craig - What the Wh meant was "ssshhh, keep moving along, nothing to see here..."

The Negative Crack Spread-FT bearish indicator for WTI crude
http://tinyurl.com/5v27c4

yvrapx - vlo, tso, hoc don't seem to notice yet.

3/4 of the last closings were big sell events. I doubt that will occur again today. If it does, then it will most certainly happen again tomorrow after a rally.

Chickenpookie
Expecting reverse of yesterday in today’s closing

Chicken i was thinking the same thing. but opposite. as in they will likely sell the last 10 minutes. only because that has been the trend. what was your reasoning? just curious?

Adding to that, Europe sold late day and was re-bought to end slightly up, so I'm gonna say if we follow by selling off today end, it'll be a gap-up open tomorrow, rally the day and sell off prior to weekend.

Hi,

I am not really sure if everyone understands how much knowledge banks and brokers have about their Clients.

From my experience, I can tell you that banks in general have real time access to order flow stats, and these are made available to all departments who "need them".

Statistics are also collected for each Client and also for Client segments about payments, "for security and marketing purposes".

Think about it.

Now, imagine you were the one with the eyes on the screen. Wold you even care about the media, or would you just keep your eye on the ball?

Should this be stopped?

Yes.

When?

Now.

Best,

Chicken - it seems like flip-a-coin territory to me, but I'm interested in what gives you the impression of a positive close today.

The amount of tension that builds to see where last hour is going, and the subsequent volatility, has become self-fulfilling in many ways. The blame for yesterday appears to be on the shoulders of the GE CEO making comments about profits in '09.

The pattern has been to tip their hat at about 11:56 PDT (add depending on your time zone)

It is a time worn and well established principle that basically, the stock market hates the Bushes. I am guessing that WHEN, not if Obama wins, that the markets and business in general will celebrate the reprieve from fiscal imcompetence and anti-democratic leadership by rallying strongly as it did when Clinton, another breath of fresh air (at the time) assumed power.

i didnt even use the "m" word yet.

NYUgrad I'm looking for anomalies in the patterns, keeping human emotion in mind. Everyone wants to rally but isn't willing to be caught with their pants down for any length of time (capital preservation mode), leading to EOD selling, day trader style. I expect this, especially late tomorrow after a good rally or big gap-up open. Trying to think like a day trader.

Chicken, i think we may get sucked under again. i hope i am wrong. my only reasoning is still light volume and the trend is negative mystery closes.

the monkey will come out soon enough

I wrote in Ron Paul on my absentee ballot.
Just back from the dentist. Had to have one of the old guys pulled. The doc said a lot of clients are putting off work being done. I'm very grateful to live in a country that has the breadth and quality of out health care. Wish everyone could afford it.

JohnE
Agreed, may still be beating on shorts as markets lift on increasing liquidity. Tough space, couldn't get pass through margin on high oil prices, it seems it is worse on lower prices........

Dave - "Chicken - it seems like flip-a-coin territory to me, but I'm interested in what gives you the impression of a positive close today."

1) We need a positive close to suck in amateurs and spit them out again before closing Friday.

2)Up slightly for the week in order to pump in more amateurs for next week's fleecing.

3) If not 2), then early week rally to attract more amateurs.

Good one Shark. Can anyone add to that?

Excerpt from D Gartman from a couple days ago, all the stimulous from the Fed/Treasury is nice but who is left to pay?:
THE TREND IS FROM THE LOWER LEFT TO THE UPPER RIGHT.. AND IT IS RELENTLESS AND IT IS WRONG:
We are talking here about the chart of the percentage of people here in the US who pay little if any taxes to the federal government. It is one of the things that we are most concerned about; that sooner or later there will be more Americans of voting age who pay no taxes to
Washington than there are those who do, and yet they vote and yet they have the right to elect officials how will continue to pander to this large number of voters at the expense of those whose numbers are dwindling and yet are the one's who pay the government's bills. According to data supplied by the IRS and the National Tax Foundation, at its best back in the early 80's, only 17% of the public did not pay any tax to the Federal government. That began to change in '86 with the passing of the tax reform act of that year. Quietly the number of those not paying taxes rose. By 1990, that number was up to 21%. By '93 it was up to 24%... and it held essentially steady there through the remainder of the 90's.
After the turn of the century, the chart turned upward ,and did so materially. By '01, 27% of America did not pay taxes to the Federal government. By '04 it was 33%, and the trend was accelerating. It is now expected that under
Sen. McCain's tax proposals, that by '09, 43% of
Americans earning wages will not pay federal taxes of any kind. Under Sen. Obama, it will be only marginally worse, for under his proposals, 44% will not pay any federal taxes. At the current pace, by the mid-"teens," we
will pass the 50% level, and once past there we fear that the acceleration will only worsen. This is creeping socialism at its very worst, for it happens slowly but it happens inexorably. We are left to wonder if we have not already passed the point of no return? Sadly, we fear we have.

Maromatics - I am very suspicious of the custodial practices of brokers who administer 401K plans (U.S. retirement savings accounts).

One thing that makes me very suspicious is that in most plans that I know of, account holders are only allowed to make purchases/sales that are executed at the end of the US trading day.

Therefore, brokers are able to watch these buy/sell orders pile up all day, which gives them a great deal of leverage to maneuver their own trade desks against the order flow.

As a rule of thumb, I try to always enter 401K orders in the last minute of trading as to
not give away tradeable information.

Essentially I think these 401K accounts are set-up to transfer as much flexibility as possible from the account holder to the account administrator.......

What industries will take a hit with an Obama win

Oil Companies??

Watch FXY (the JPY), it is back down just above 100 on channel support.
If it goes up, stocks should tank.
If they can hold it at least in neutral into the weekend, the OPM crowd can paint the EOM tape for you.

Bear nmarket continues after the weekend into EOY?

http://acrossthecurve.com/

Prices of Treasury coupon securities moved in bifurcated fashion today as the carrot of a one percent funds rate seduced buyers into the front end of the market while the long end of the bond curve languished on supply fears and continued deleveraging by hedge funds.I want to take a second and discuss the deleveraging event and the anomalies it has fostered along the treasury curve. For many years traders have found it profitable to buy and sell zero coupon strips and do the opposite trade in the swap market. The August 2023 strip in the old days would trade 40 basis points rich to swaps when they were expensive and 9 basis points expensive to swaps when they were cheap.

That zero coupon strip is trading today at swaps plus 70 basis points. I spoke to a trader of that sector who said that the deleveraging continues with full force and he does not expect it to abate until year end.

shark I'm counting on that. Will the market trip over the threshold or run strong? I'm thinking one last dive at least.

market reaction to Obama? may be similar to the reaction to Kennedy's election in November 1960?

for presidential elections & stock market cycles see http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/043/stocks.html

sv
Usual suspects: oil, pharmaceuticals and anything that is not regulated will be and those that are will be more restricted. Utilities, financials etc.

I have TGP in the portfolio. It is getting close to dividend day (Nov 7th). As I recall, they mentioned raising the .55 to a higher amount at the last announcement. I feel like buying 200 shares and hold them till after the dividend and maybe catch a little upswing at the same time. There's been no media coverage since Aug 7th. I've been watching for any info on the increased dividend that might trigger a little rally on the stock, but haven't come across any new info. I'll watch for any input that's posted. Thanks.

Re: CAD

Loonie rally just breaking a bearish momentum trap this week, the rally against the Yen and the Dollar should last for a while, since we've seen rate cuts in the Dollar, and we'll presumably see them against the Yen, you have to wonder at this point how well the loonie will fare against the Euro since rate cuts are in the cards as well. I suppose if you were a currency trader, you would focus on some of the currency crosses such as CAD/¥ or CAD/€, since the oil price may not favour a long loonie.

Oil price declines will definitely create a demand for dollars once again and put pressure on the loonie, but the gap-ups remain huge, which suggest they are to be filled at some point. So the Yen and the Euro would the be focus.

The lower interest rate scenario can only be positive for gold, though it hasn't worked its way through into the bullion market. Gold prices are still mired in its commodity phase, as traders are looking for an oil bonanza, rather than focussing on the hard money trend, such as currencies and bullion.

Since gold is declining in what are ideal circumstance, I suppose it will be another lengthy drawn out hand holding session for oil fixations and another decline in the markets before gold becomes a standout again. A declining gold price in these markets is a terrible warning sign for all, as it had been in the last few weeks.

Keep a watch on short term yields:

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

yvrapx - from a few moments ago: 10/24-now HOC +22%, VLO +22.7%, TSO +22.7%. IMHO there is a short opportunity developing here and the crack spread only makes it more likely.

3pm "MONKEY!" for dow +200

JohnE
Good call, we'll see how it ends up today.

Crisis of Convenience for Roiling SEC - October 30, 2008
David Patch

To say that support for the Securities and Exchange Commission is at an all time low would be an understatement. With Congressional Investigations into the agencies handling of critical investigations and recent reports out of the Office of Inspector General, investors are left guessing as to what exactly the agency is doing to police our markets. Heck, even a presidential candidate has suggested that the SEC Chairman should be fired and it was his party that hired him.

What most want to understand is, has the SEC gone rogue in actually aiding the white collar criminals that lurk out there?

With claims by the OIG that the SEC’s Director of Enforcement was engaged in inappropriate communications regarding an insider trading investigation into the politically connected CEO of Morgan Stanley, and has likewise been accused of having inappropriate communications with the General Counsel of JP Morgan regarding a Bear Stearns investigation it is not a far stretch to think something is remiss.

Question is, how deep does it go? How far have some within the agency gone to protect wealthy and powerful individuals?

read the rest here;

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/466

Another thought reference prior comments on USD and adjustments in foreign funds, keep in mind BOJ may announce interest rate cut tomorrow as mentioned earlier this week.

pulling for nyg but...

a close above 9300 would get my attention.

JohnE Check out the RSI on VLO all overbought....

'JohnE Check out the RSI on VLO all overbought....'
One month chart.

Here we go down, then back to slightly positive close. Similar to Europe.

I am thinking that a lot of folks went short at today's open and have been waiting for a good opportunity to cover that has not arrived......

Makes me think strong close today, moderately strong open tomorrow and an evening out to modestly down on Friday.

Asia was up so much last night that I am not all that comfortable to expect more significant follow through tonight from Asian markets......

Westcoaster,

You've just confirmed my image of the left coast with your assessment of Obama's motives.

I see the limits of his idealism expressed in his claim, "We are who we've been waiting for."

As my Senator he has nothing to show for my wasted vote.

He is a brilliant salesman IMO — he being the product. He seems to follow the advice of Marshall Field who said, "Give the lady what she wants." His adaptation is, "Tell the people what they want to hear."

When stocks are at the bottom, how much worse can he make them?

If I were running for the office I would definitely want to follow W.

ICE is going to be trading CDS contracts from end of the year. Stock is up +21... Any views on this?

Craig & Norm,

You may find the article I got from Paul van Eeden's website a year ago to be interesting.

The Wondrous Alchemical Structured Finance Sausage Machine
The U.S. Credit Crunch
Not A Transitory Event

http://tiny.cc/HR1xr

EWY Price 29.21 Chg +4.71 19.14%

Somebody made money on this one.

Afterhours activity on Korean country ETF EWY. Number of sizable trades, incl. two separate 100,000 share transactions one at 25.30 @ 16:31, one at 25.395 @ 16:20
Posted by: Seamus at October 28, 2008 4:57 PM

Jock - Are you "skinhead" short? I don't believe Obama has anything to worry about but he needs to remain cautious cause there's still too many weirdos in sheets out there unfortunately (I'm talking uniforms, not costumes).

This trading is amazin'. AUY got hit with major volume and upswing in the last 2 minutes.

ICE ain't on my good-guy list.

THanks JohnE for answering my question yesterday.
much appreciated.

Gear up and get ready!! The last 10 minutes are almost here. Do we have another 400 point move in the last minutes before close? If so, which way? It is like a casino...Red or Black.

Notice the wooosh that TSO just took?

"Monkey!"

I'm actually hoping for a yawner of a close. The sooner these ridiculous late-day swipes go away, the easier it will be to build long term positions.

Hey I think that "Monkey" thing is actually working. Amazing:)

"MONKEY!!!" HOLD 200

Confiscation of Gold and Silver

There have been many Caraista discussions about the possibility of confiscation of gold.

Bob Chapman suggests in his latest blog that de facto confiscation is occurring now as we speak. The current bottleneck between the wholesale and retail market is preventing those seeking to protect their wealth by buying and holding gold coins.

His comments are a worthwhile read

http://tinyurl.com/55kfe2

Squeeze them shorts. MONKEY!!!

US trading is like dealing with a gang of drunken sailors. Hey, "Drunken Sailor" would be a good name for Bill's new Sea Ray. Or maybe "Clam Bake"...

Bill, et al. -

In regards to yesterday's "anchoring" observation, would the spin on "core" GDP today be an example of such?

Regards. My hand is asking me to go.

Didn't expect that little spike at the end, but I'll take it.

LOL, who gives a ---- about the difference between correlation and causation...as long as it works...

presidents and markets.

Don't think history will make a difference in today's world.
Whomever gets elected could spark an emotional rally. This market does not run on fundementals. All emotion until we have clarity of what damage is done to the real economy.

Faber makes a great point on bloomberg today about the last 25 years and the fed.

One that kaimu would to enjoy. There are five speakers on the video.

Has anyone looked at a 30 plus year chart of equity market?
Try it after his bloomberg video.

Billy s - mutual funds won't take sell orders after a certain time of day. They trade at end of day net asset value. It is based on the 1940 act of investment companies. Flawed not fishy.

Hartford Financial Services Group lost half its money today. That's a MONKEY on your back.

TCK.B.TO a bit of a laggard today. Hangover from Fording purchase? Catch up tomorrow. Discl long at close price.

How many of you saw my post a week ago suggesting Americans buy Cdn Resource stocks with your usd? Was that a good call?

I'll bet TA can't tell us when to anticipate an 11k Big Board, can it?

Sold my STO and VLO shares eod after reading article on crack spread. Watch them go up tomorrow.

generally an inside day.

what is interesting then is to look a what did not put in an inside day:

TNX, SLW & emerging markets (EEM as proxy) notably up.

(But note, emerging & European markets mostly put in a second down leg in their bear markets, that the US markets seemingly magically avoided.)

IRX, USO & UNG notably down.

(How much longer can the energy equity bulls ignore the declining price of their main products?)

IRX down, TNX up -
steepening of the yield curve.
with IRX down just above levels which only recently meant credit market panic?

we shall see, said the blind man . . .

RossvilleBill - Thanks for the info. Here is the article on HFS http://tinyurl.com/5mrpnn I fell sorry for the shareholders.

look at the rammp job on GG at end of day, as gold was hitting new lows
talk about FIXED markets, these are just numbers played with by few on Wall Street,

VIX down a significant 10% right now. SO, CP..up day tomorrow 1st thing?

JohnE
'Sold my STO and VLO shares eod after reading article on crack spread. Watch them go up tomorrow.'
They might but they can't defy the mkt forces that drove them down in the first place. I was an early fan of the refiners when the spreads made sense and even made some $ on Whiting when VLO bought them then trading Western refining WNR. Arguement was no new refineries built since '70's, none in the future due NIMBY and demand increasing. Well that whole complex got killed when spreads flattened then disappeared.

AUY almost made it back to $5 today

WOW!! Three day rally for the tsx comp...UP 354 points..

Feels great....$$$

Hope it lasts for a while....:)

Saving for a Ferrari 430...in my dreams!!

As an Illinois State Senator you are one of 59 Senators. As a U.S. Senator you are one of 100.

If these deliberative bodies can screw up the country this bad, how can anyone hold any *one* of them, no matter how well intentioned, as solely responsible for not delivering?

How are we to know he wasn't the only performer and he was soaring with turkeys? That is more than likely and is as logical a conclusion as expecting 1/59th or 1/100th of a governmental body to deliver anything without the remaining percentage cooperating or screwing it up.

I don't think anyone can say the environment has been constructive for efficient governance in this regard.

It is clearly not the nature of any one senator to deliver anything to any one citizen, unless it's Ted Stevens and a bridge.

I would be interested, what specifically was Obama supposed to deliver for your vote that couldn't have been measurable reduced to nothing by 58 or 99 other Senators? What might 58 or 99 other Senators do to any reasonable compromise?

My point is that mathematically and logically there are far more responsible parties than one and we aren't given any specific evidence regarding how the process, which is purposely made too complex for responsible citizens to follow, transpired.

Kaimu
Strangely silent my island bruddah.........

Craig,

Many of his votes were simply "present." How long could you hold a job just by showing up?

I'm not holding him responsible for the mess we're in — just saying I have yet to see any real accomplishment other than making people think he is doing something.

He authored two books and no bills during the same time period.
We seem to always be a cross purposes in our discussions.

Re: LTCM

The wikipedia page on LTCM shines a bright light on the dealings during the collapse of LTCM, some of the names are very familiar, considering the banking collapses this year:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

Anything and anything that moves under the sun is subject to CDO's and swaps or some form of arbitrage. Its leading to a naked shorting bias in all values, a form of market trap.

The collapse of LTCM years ago and its subsequent liquidation only spread the use of the type of arbitrage used in complex derivatives right after the Nadaq crash.

Yvrapx - thanks for that article from your 2:04pm post. There was a lot of information there.

Chickie,

DIA max pain for Nov shows 91 (=9100), for Dec 104(=10400), Jan 114 (=11400).

Perhaps I should start my own advisory service?

Mauldin's latest just appeared, & contains a lot of the stuff I have been just been writng about:

" . . . The Treasury is now the "investment banker" of last resort, arranging and financing mergers.

. . . This is a seismic shift.

As investors, we have to start looking at the world in a completely differet way, and getting our information from different sources. A company's 10-K is almost irrelevant if all it includes is financial statements and market outlooks. What matters now are the "exogenous" factors: government guarantees of the commercial paper market, currency interventions, direct capital infusions, etc. And how does a company describe in its Management Outlook that "Yes, our company is too big to fail." "

http://www.investorsinsight.com/

Mauldin included Stratfor's 4Q forecast, oil bulls beware:

http://web.stratfor.com/images/Q4Forecast.pdf

"With the world's three largest economies using less energy, prices are certain to slide. Thisrealization is dawning only now, when prices have already dropped from their highs by 50 percent. The hype is mostly gone; all that remain are universally bearish fundamentals. The price drop to date is just the beginning "

JohnE
You are very welcome.

Norm - thanks for chiming in.

In my 401k I have option for either an index fund or mutual fund for most asset classes.

I stick most closely to equity index funds since there aren't fund fees involved.

In any case, I can submit sell orders right on up to 3:59:59 ET for both index trades and mutual fund trades (not sure how they circumvent these rules that would supposedly prohibit late sales).

As far as index based transactions, which must be a large portion of 401k transactions, I just assume that the broker is using the generated order flow to its advantage.

Volume in the major U.S. market indexes continued to disappoint today.

Bill Cara has advised watching the TSX Canadian exchange ($CDNX) as a potential sign that speculative money is coming back into the markets. Despite 3 up days, volume has been just so-so there, as well.

Until we see more volume show up, I'll continue to watch and wait.

And to answer bsi87 from earlier today, I have nothing against short term trading. Personally, I'm more inclined to be a swing trader (catching a 2-6 week move, and sometimes longer depending on the strength of the trend) than I am a day trader.

In these incredibly volatile and unpredictable markets, there's no place for swing trading, imo.

Westcoaster
'TCK.B.TO a bit of a laggard today. Hangover from Fording purchase?'
Actually I believe it is Fording shareholders looking to cash out the .245 of a TCK.G they were issued with the $82 USD cash on the tender. This is a terrific level to accumulate a great stock. ITIOFD I have owned the stock pre-split at $2.69

Hi FranSix,

I was interested in your comments today and yesterday about the f yr TIP and bond prices. I went to Jesse's Cafe, where he noted that yields on 5 yr TIPs were now higher than 5 yr Treasurys. He says that this indicates inflation "dead ahead."

It seems to me it indicates that disinflation or staglation is dead ahead--or am I not processing this info accurately?

Also, just as an fyi I read this blog every day but have only posted a few times. As a matter of fact, I lost my old typekey info so I had to reregister.

ToddinFL
'Until we see more volume show up, I'll continue to watch and wait.' A reasonable strategy as we enter tax-loss selling season but be aware the spec stuff won't stay down forever and many juniors have been dead money for 7 months now.

If missed votes were a charted stock, who would you vote for?

http://tinyurl.com/6pxzsh

http://tinyurl.com/5g98uq

Remembering that missed votes is bad and the chart should be reversed.

Re: Cafe Americain

First of all, let me say that I like the waitress.

Secondly if we are to understand the gist of the blog, its drawing parallels to the LTCM collapse and looking for hard evidence of similar breakdowns. Certainly the failures to deliver in the short term treasuries indicates fraudulent use of the treasury markets, as they had done in LTCM.

An indicator of inflation for the long term would be bond market defaults, as Russia went into hyperinflation temporarily after their default, which went little reported.

Instead of the 'trillion dollar bet' we now have the 'quadrillion dollar bet' with just about every nation in the G7 looking at a bond market failure.

What this means in the short term, is the swaps are in control of the markets and the price is everything and fundamentals count for nothing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGfXyVtiB1E

Grym, I hope not. It is your vote afterall.
I am not a resident of Illinois, so I'm not aware of the record. I suspect he did more than attend. A "present" vote might be for a lot of reasons in the Senate, the Senate is not like the House. The record is set up to obviscate how a Senator might vote due to the compromises and grabass I suggested in my post. It might also be equivalent to "abstain", which IS a vote and might be purposely or strategically done to benefit his constituents or to defeat a measure needing a certain percentage w/o taking issue with anyone or thing. It is a purposeful deliberative tactic.

There has been many occassions where I voted to abstain for such reasons.

I don't think he has been unproductive in the U.S. Senate working across the aisle with several well known Republicans, but I'm a fair person and acknowledge a goodly portion has been spent running for Pres. This is true however for both candidates.

Billy Sundance,

That is a good example of stuff that needs to end.

But try to imagine how you would react if you had a screen in which you could see, in real time, the order flow of your Clients, as it is routed into the market....

Cheers,

The charts of votes is interesting as a conversation peice, but to be perfectly fair all of the abscenteeism is from Presidential campaigns for both candidates. (see timelines) So no real correlation.

Let's define "swing trading" and "day trading".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_trading

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Day_trading

I am swing trading, using RSI 7 day 30 breakouts are not holding. When I have a 10% or greater gain in 2-3 days, I am inclined to take profits and look for other opportunities. I am seeing trends lasting 3 days, then reversing.

re:volumes. It would be preferable to have heavy volume to confirm. IBD has already called DJIA/SPX in a confirmed rally. I don't know that I agree but it's their opinion.

I'm looking for a SPX MACD crossover on the weekly chart to confirm an uptrend (per Sy Harding). Looks like it might take another week or two but that's speculation. I would think the Triple RSI buy signals would then work as before.

One has to trade the market he is given. Or sit on the sidelines and wait till the market comes back to whatever techniques/tools have worked in the past.

GL.

The electoral votes are spreading in Obama's favor. i would be shocked if he loses. (i dont like either candidate and prob will not vote)

But with that said i also think it will spark the cash back to the markets and i think FSLR/solars will continue to do well.

evident in FSLR. Here are the solar stocks i watch. (i own zero shares of any yet) Let me know if i am missing any good ones.

YGE
CSIQ
SOL
CSUN
ENER
ESLR
SPWRA
JASO
STP
SOLF
WFR
FLR
WGOV
FSLR
LDK
TSL
CDI

Oops. clarification. Stance: Selective (HA)

I am using RSI 7 day<10 to indicate capitulation. The RSI Triple Buy signal has not worked, at least, on the issues I screen. They have gotten me long, then continued to drop well beyond the 1.5 * 10 day ATR.

yvrapx, JohnE: If you look at the seasonal chart for the crack spread (available, say, from valero.com -> investor relations -> industry fundamentals -> gasoline fundametals), you will see that October is the seasonal low point for the crack spread. This particular October saw wholesale gasoline prices falling more than usual because of the panic worries about the US consumer. The common sense suggests that the negative crack spread can only be a short-term phenomenon (since it is not profitable to produce gasoline in such an environment). Seasonally, the crack spread will begin to rise now until the next summer. Finally, the news about the crack spread were priced into the refiner stocks even BEFORE the article on Alphaville was published, since the pros who trade this market know the news BEFORE the rest of us do. So selling shares JUST BECAUSE you read an article about how bad things are only transfers your shares at a low price into the strong hands of those who are buying long-term on locally bad news.

I think VLO was up today simply because it has been sold in a panic during the whole of October and for some time now it will be moving with the general market (as the risk aversion subsides, investors will be moving into all equities). The general willingness of investors to take risk will be the main driver of equities for some time, I believe, and THAT'S what you should base your trading decisions on (say by watching the TED spread, VIX, $USD, etc.), rather than some articles whose info is priced into the stocks before they get published. JMHO.

GDX showing what appears to be a hanging man. RSI 7 day 50 and gold closed below last 2 days' numbers.

"Be careful"

VLO is a $35 stock trading for almost half that (it actually hit a low at $15 and change) - just my opinion, but VLO and TSO just posted earnings much higher than expected, and I am expecting the same from FTO next week, as well as simiilar numbers from SUN and HOC.

"Cramer sez": don't buy VLO until yield hits 8%.
(keep dreamin buddy).

Long VLO, TSO, and FTO. Long TSO calls 10 strike.

Don't believe the hype! DYODD.

NYUG -

" But with that said i also think it will spark the cash back to the markets and i think FSLR/solars will continue to do well. "

STP was up near 20% at the open, but lost it all within a couple of hours. Ditto for WFR. Looks like many want to exit when it barely reach 20. What's your take?

(Long STP, too long!)

bsi97 - Thanks for the TA scoop, it's peaking my interest... Taking a look-see if I can duplicate those numbers. Any take on Fractal Analysis, or pie in sky?

ICE is going to the moon. Aren't they one of our energy culprits from a few months back? Maybe they've found a new calling...

c3,

Not too sure as i have not been watching the action too closely. but the company i am treating at the GG of solar is FSLR.

The problem with solar is the industry is young and not all companies are created equal. and thus you have thes wild swings. even fslr, i could have bought that just the other day below $100 and now its $144.

i am pretty sure the top companies in this group will rally if/when obama wins. but there will be sellers waiting for this. I might nibble a few of these companies prior to Nov 4 and sell into the rally.

but this is not my recommendation. just thinking out loud

Does anyone know how I can access the archives for September 2008 or the first two weeks in October 200? I don't see 2008 listed as an option under archives. TIA

Shark-didn't the market reach new highs under Bush in 2007, or is my memory failing me??

Chickie,

I like pecan pie. Looked at Fractal Analysis but it's beyond me. Thought about a neural network but that's too hard too.

I can draw lines tho'

Shark-Time worn and well established principle?? that's hilarious....where do you get such information?

I am hearing software vendors like SAP, ORCL offering 50% discounts on price & similar stories in hi tech equipment vendors. Also cash rich companies are extending credit terms to customers/financing the sale... I think its a wait and watch game on capital equipment related stocks (semi, construction etc) & on anything to do with discretionary spending. On the one hand, billions being printed should prop up the market sooner or later but the real economy is not turning around any soon (risk aversion at all levels of psyche is going to dampen demand)

"It seems to me it indicates that disinflation or staglation is dead ahead--or am I not processing this info accurately?"

Disinflation is a slowing of rate of inflation, stagflation is high inflation and high unemployment.

I'm hoping for inflation as opposed to stagflation. Too strong a dollar will cause manufacturing dislocation, translating to lost opportunities for creating wealth through value-added activity. Disinflation is possible I suppose, don't see too much hope there considering the Fed Deficit was just doubled over the past two months.

Now is a good time to blow me out of the water on this, I really would appreciate that.

Pecan is good, especially with a dab of vanilla ice cream... :P

Roubini has a piece on forbes saying that the high yield on the 45 yr tips indicates stagflation lies in our immediate future.

I must say it's in my immediate personal interest that we have inflation, because I am long gold.

Wish I understood more about economics. Yes, I understand that the Fed backstopping and buying and printing everything means massive inflation lies in our future, but I don't have the analytic tools to calculate when--next month or next year? i gather Bill believes sooner rather than later, but there are some not neglible voices out there that say big time inflation is about a year off.

enjoy old articles

Barron's feb 2k8

Jeremy Grantham - the guy who saw the tech bubble. Lost most of his clients. Now got them back and then some manages 150 billion. Oh in/on seperate article he called the last 4 years the biggest sucker's rally of all time. We are in the 7th year of a 8-17 year bear market.
Ibremembered this article because of political discourse on the site today.
Enjoy!

Http://tinyurl.com/6a4how

perhaps more than 6 trillion on side lines

Http://tinyurl.com/5r4ftd

Read with caution.

Tiny's not liking your url's Norm.
They aren't active links.

craig - i can use his links fine...not sure why u cant...

http://tinyurl.com/5g65o5

Bailout economy now moves to credit cards. i propose that anyone who doesn't take a bailout of some sort, can opt out of paying fed & state income tax and cap gains tax for 5 yrs.

"The new pilot program -- which the banks hope will become permanent -- could involve as many as 50,000 people struggling with credit card debt. On an individual basis, the amount of debt to be forgiven would rise according to the severity of the borrower's financial situation, up to a maximum of 40 percent."

So how is this stagflation seen?.... Its not going to be demand pushed but supply pushed, so is it commodity prices getting skyrocketing to match to the real values of the funny money, causing decimation in production capacity leading to higher prices?

Rayg,

I'm glad I've found you....Are you the last Bush fan left across the fruited plain? At any rate...

Recall that as Bush assumed control the markets were falling apart, as was, truth be told, the general economy and employment, which never really have prospered in these past few years. Blame it on Clinton if you must, I have my disagreements with him too, but it was only the bizarre fiscal manipulations of Mr. Greenspan that produced a false proseperity known commonly as the housing bubble, which helped fueled the stock market bubble, which is now correcting.

I have come to the belief that despite the fact that we're all money guys and despite the fact that Republican policies seemingly favor money guys (like us and those far more prosperous) the fact remains that markets and money guys seem to abhor fascism and anti-democratic policies. It is as though they can percieve that in the absence of genuine freedom their own ox is, to a degree, threatened.

This is of course a nuanced and subtle point, your point about the all-time high occuring under Shrub is correct and you are right to point it out.

Buy stuff on your CC and the don't pay and be forgiven? Wow, what concept. Well, if the banks don't need to pay for their bad debts, why not include everyone then. Who was it here that was buying stocks on his CC? Markets would go to the moon like that :-)

Gee, why do I religiously pay my bills.

David
Thanks for the info. I concur with all of your points however passing the crack spread margin is an isssue that won't go away near term unless US consumers are prepared to pay more. By way of example we have a diesel shortage in the Province of Alberta, oil sands country. Diesel is being rationed and it is a real issue as PCA has shut down there refining for maintenance and SU is still working to get their plant back up. Refining is not the huge moneymaker many think, low margin lots of production probs. So the pro's may get access to info sooner the trend on pricing is ugly.

Solar stocks I follow include SOLR ASYS SPIR WFR
These are suppliers to the solar manufacturers.
They should prosper as the industry grows.

Shark,

The tech bubble also produced the "Clinton surplus" which Democrats are fond of throwing into the discussions of the Bush deficit. Whatever else, Clinton is one lucky player and Bush is the reverse side of the coin. Clinton's tax collected on tech bubble winnings are now matched Bush's tax losses as the write-offs begin on the subprime.

We use the "birth/death index", to estimate business starts, "owner equivalent rent" instead of real housing costs and calculate "core inflation" to avoid minor items like food and energy.

Our data are so distorted that every once and a while I need to simply reach into my pocket to make sure I still have a few bucks left.

I see virtually no difference between Republicans and Democrats. They will take care of each other first, last and always. We lost our representation when politics became a profession able to vote its own pay and benefits.

Based on the descriptions provided at Wikipedia, I guess I'm more of a trend follower.

http://tinyurl.com/5qojd6

That said, I have traded a fair amount in the past for 2-4 week time periods, and I don't consider that to be "long term trading" as it is stated at Wikipedia when describing trend following.

NYUG -

"but this is not my recommendation. just thinking out loud..."

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on SOLAR. That's all I was looking for.

vinod- i can understand why you went to 50% cash, and i don't necessarily disagree...but let's go back to last summer, when we were day trading SMN and DUG: our positions would get blown back time and again, and we eventually gave up-> as soon as we broke even, we were out...oil was headed for 145, the USD was weak, and we either took profits quickly or they disappeared the next day...so we exited in the 30s, i don't need to tell you what happened in october...

now we own QLD, UYG, and USD...

Todd,

FWIW, I find some of those definitions in wikipedia questionable. Their definition of scalping, for instance, is very narrow, and the description following it contradicts the definition itself.

JohnE Good one on gold October 30, 2008 1:01 PM
I was just realizing that not long ago I sold G.To at $35 and now I'm wondering if I should be holding it or selling it at $23 and change? Price (engineered?) down to $730 as I write.

Grym, I hope you are not right. The glass is half full. I think Obama, for the reasons I put forward, can right a lot of things by simply enforcing laws that are there. It's simple. Obey the law or suffer the consequences.

Criminals in the end want to be caught. These guys are begging for that to happen. They are tiring of trying to conceal their fraudulent behaviour. They have to look at the resultant misery that took place on their watch. After all these are bright people, who have had access to the best education the western world has to offer.

In the end, they have to face their children and grandchildren, their maker, who are all going to ask them: "What did you create? What legacy did you leave behind?"

Obama's people have been reading this blog and will know what needs to be done to clean it up and make it fair to all. They may just do something about it.

OK so I'm dreaming. That's what we do here in British California. In Canada, easterners envy us that we live here, but politically they don't listen to us one iota. We're on our own.

here's a guy who put a physics degree from MIT to good use:

http://tinyurl.com/6c7dvo

Westcoaster:

Sorry dude, have to disagree. They did what they did out of self-interest. They want to get caught?

I think not.

2nd
I went to 50% cash has many reason
I was concern that we may go lot lower and psychological damage was an issue with me looking my balance goes down every day. From being up 70% to down 10%. And do not want to lose more of my original capital

Lost faith in some of my holding like BC/SU/RIMM/MBT/TCK and decided to cut my lose on them and kept all ETF

My brother, every time he has to withdraw money to pay college for his kid’s tuition market is down. I do not want to be in that position. If market does not improve and tuition for my daughter is due I may have to sell at any price at that time.

Most of my saving is in IRA and 401K witch I do not trade. And in IRA I have
TIPS only.
Now as of today I am not down but up 2%. I sold LVS and MGM on Tuesday brought back yesterday morning still holding have 1000 each

Inflation debate scorecard - A listing as I view order of likelihood:

Reflation: The act of stimulating the economy by increasing the money supply or by reducing taxes. It is the opposite of disinflation.

Stagflation - High inflation and high unemployment.

Disinflation is the slowing rate of inflation.

Deflation - Term used by the classical economists to refer to a decrease in the money supply and credit. Deflation is considered bad regardless how high it is in a debt based society because the value of debt-equities falls. Falling debt-equities prices are a primary cause of default, putting further downward pressure on the value of debt-equities. Opposite of inflation.

IMO up until a few months ago, we were in an inflationary period. We are exiting a period of deflation, as the money supply and credit been tight. We will return to an inflationary period, following a brief reflationary period. It's possible for stagflation to begin, but the FED will work hard to arrest both stagflation and deflation.

Gold has held up well, considering. Compare with fall in DOW. IMO, we are now entering a reflationary stage (increasing rate of inflation). My expectation is gold should remain steady, or resume it's trend previous to last year. Rate of inflation may be especially high, considering the unprecedented 2x jump in the federal deficit over the past 2 months. How long will the USD strength last? Until confidence in other currencies returns, and the rush into the USD experiences a reversal.

Jim Sinclair has reached a new level of frustration with manipulation of gold prices and has proposed an interesting initiative in response. He says:

"Dear Friends,
I, like yourself, am fed up with the gold bank's ownership of the gold price via paper instruments. Therefore I respectfully ask those that can afford it to purchase as many Comex contracts as you can afford to take delivery of and do so.
Accept my assurance that I will take delivery of Comex 100 ounce bars on every delivery month from this day forward.
Respectfully yours, JS ."

Sounds like fun to me. For those unfamiliar with the process (I was) here is a decent primer.
http://tinyurl.com/5j5x9n

CK,

Roudini states we are in a period of "stagdeflation"
at the rgemonitor

asset values are going down faster than these countries can print money right now. Inflation could come quick or NOT AT all. Ask Japan... although it is hecka expensive to live there because they did a fantastic job of devaluing their currency.

Re: Gold Price Fixing

In the interest of the LTCM collapse story, which I have become fixated on, I re-read the findings of Sprott Asset Management on price fixing in the gold markets, which refers specifically to LTCM and the role bullion plays in providing liquidity for OTC derivatives trades:

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/not_free_not_fair.pdf

Its a lengthy read, but might provide some insight into the gold markets.

Re: Ackerman Predicts Further Plunge

Noting that Rick Ackerman has a knack for calling price movements, he points out that GS downside target is likely to surprise, and that the markets are in for a further plunge:

http://rickackerman.com/commentary/2008/Hey_Wall_Street_Worst_Yet_to_Hit.html

This is how many PHD's are utilized:

http://tinyurl.com/5fkh9r

Craig,

The links work just not automatic. I posted from my cell phone. Darn thing. copy the tinyurl.com/ect... past into the address bar.

http://tinyurl.com/6a4how

http://tinyurl.com/5r4ftd

hope these work.

Grymm.

Well said, DEM/REP SAME THING.

Last 25 years - they have done nothing to support friends and family with discretionary incentives to support business trends. Welfare for business. Not free markets by any means.

Look at our deficits how they started in the early 80s. Only gotten worst.

Shark - Clinton's success with deficits was mostly because 30 year bonds were made Callable in the 80s after 10 years. Issue a 30 year bond at 15% in the 80s, call it back 10 years later and issue a 5% 30 year bond. hmm....
take your 5% mortgage and issue a 2% mortgage.. can you say savings!?!?

4thefuture.

the inflation will occur when the following happens.

Banks and people stop hoarding cash. The catch is this...

the fed now pays interest on excess deposits held overnight. when banks balance at the end of the day, excess funds go there and earn a rate of return for the banks. What the "facilities" that they have created have caused is for the money supply M1 and M2 to go up massively. we would think inflation is upon us but that is NOT the case because of the hoarding.
Banks are hoarding cash because of the black holes in their balance sheets. they simply need the cash to stay solvent.

until that get fixed we won't have a real inflation problem because assets that are bringing in cash flows, the banks can depend on those assets. There is also no secondary market for those assets on their sheets which could mean they are listed as level 2 or level 3.

the fed's goal, i will say goal is once the problem seems to be fixed they will pull the excess printed money they created out of the system. in theory that should "hinder" inflation.
GOOD LUCK - when have they ever reversed a policy.

They should of took the 700 billion and opened shop with the US National Bank of Goverment Boom 7 more trillion of money created, let the rest fail. after 5 years un-nationalize the bank, break it down into regions and see what happens.
nah we wouldn't want the government to interfere with the markets would we?

Thank you FranSix and Norm. That helps point me in the right direction.

I bot lotsa some years back physical metal when silver was 7 and gold was and all this time have been thinking I always had a little secure nest egg to fall back on. Now I'm demoralized that I didn't convert much of it to cash last March.

Norm, what are "level 2 or level 3." And by what mechanism could the Fed pull all that excess printed money out of the system?

Anyway, I think I understand now what the crucible is for the financial system--when and if the banks stop hoarding all the dollars with which the Fed is force-feeding them.

Btw, Rick Santelli of CNBC, who seems an extremely canny observer of capitol markets, keeps emaphsizing that inflation lies ahead of us, but also has said that he doesn't think gold is coming back anytime soon. Presumably this is related to his belief that the the Euro is going to continue its decline, until it reaches parity with the dollar.

He's made this point a number of time in recent weeks.

norm - I don't think a debt based, savings-less society could function in a deflationary, or stag-deflationary environment, special deals will be made to reverse the trend back to inflationary.

I'll give it some more thought.

Could be a wild ride...

No thanks, I think I'll be keeping my gold a bit longer. Ain't gonna listen to the spin job trying to knock gold down just before GS goes super long. Hell, I'll keep it for another 20 years just for the fun of it.... Maybe even double up at 1/8 price since paper will be so damn worthy.

Ha, ha, ha!!! Can't wait to hear from kaimu about this one...

yvrapx,

In recent years,SLF has been operating with the same mindset as MFC ,IMO. Like MFC's Income Plus product, Sunwise Elite is SLF's popular seg fund offering with guaranteed income for life and resets to lock in market gains. These are now proving to be very, very expensive products to maintain. Three weeks ago SLF sold off it's 37% stake in CI Funds for $2.3 Billion. CI was a cash generator so to sell it must have been a rush for cash. In those three weeks, the price of SLF has crashed from the high 30's to the low 20's. It seems almost obvious that there are more unknowns beyond the losses in investments in WAMU and Lehman that generated the large Q3 loss for SLF. I suspect that after the crisis news moves through the Insurers it will move on to the Pension Plans so this game is far from being in closing innings.

i say hold what you have, make sure you keep your job, or your clients if youre an independent contractor like i am, drink enough beer but not too much, evaluate the stocks you have in this manner, would you still buy the stocks you bought 6 months ago today? if the answer is yes just hold them as they are probably undervalued. and ask yourself, was i happier when i was 17 and had no money or at 37 when i had money and may have lost part of it. that may reorient your priorities.

TerryC
Great points Segs and the reset products work great in periods of % bond yields and 10% equity markets. The only caveat is I don't believe the regulators in Canada will let either MFC or SLF fail. We have had failures in Canada like Confed Life etc and the experience allowed these behemoths like MFC and SLF to be the co's they are today. The insurance lobby in Canada is on par w/the banking lobby, they will ensue it doesn't happen but don't be surprised if there are more Prefs sold to shore up both SLF and MFC balance sheets.
Pension plans are already hooped they bought real estate, infrastructure, private equity, hedge funds in hopes of avoiding the meltdown in AUM they are all experiencing to the the tune of 20% declines in assets. Nasty indeed.

4th -

level 2 - mark to model - made up model for that matter.

level 3 - mark to fantasy...

get the picture there is no secondary market for any of these securities because they are worth nothing.

Mchugh's post from Seeking Alpha:

* mark mchugh
*

Oct 29 07:11 PM
Excellent article James.

The NYMEX is a joke, and anyone who suggests that anybody can buy a futures contract, get delivery, smelt it and re-sell it hasn't done the homework to see what is involved.

The easiest way to end the precious metals price manipulation is to force the US Mint to sell coins at market price directly to the public (not dealers) at market price. Not because gold bugs want them to, BECAUSE IT'S THE FREAKIN' LAW!

www.law.cornell.edu/us...

Go to treasurydirect.gov - they sell all the bubblicious treasury products there, directly to the public. The Mint is part of the treasury, so why can't I buy coins there? Because, Paulson, while crooked as the day is long, is no fool and is unwilling to sell me gold at an artificially low price. The "we can't get coin blanks made" cover story has to be the lamest lie I've ever heard (yet, people like Jason C actually buy it).

The constitution states clearly that only gold and silver are money. So, unless there's an amendment I don't know about, we've let the CEO of Goldman take the real money out of the hands of citizens.

Sell the gold and silver, Hank, no more excuses.

Good to hear your mother is stabilizing Shark.

Go easy on the PhD's guys... some of us are worth our weight in gold. Bill is definitely Honorary PhD material... a combined "La Pura Vida" and "Trader-nomics" degree..

(sorry to drag you down to my level, Bill. Acceptance of degrees nominated are always optional)

Ya gotta eat, and ya got to have a sense of humor if you wanna be human...

Goldcorp announces quarterly earnings pre-market open tomorrow. Robert Floyd on BNN says we're moving into a period of seasonal strength in gold. The earnings will look good, but the question is, how far will the fall in the next two quarters. A question to be asked of any stock including top pick Agrium which will earn $10/share I think he said...looking back.

westcoaster - IMO everything everywhere but USD and YEN is down, and most feel it's all oversold right now. Distribution and rate cut were my confirmation. Until sentiment changes, I'm looking north....

A morsel for the silver crazies.

Could these patents explain why silver is holding up & even acting a little bullish, when nothing else is?
Hard to believe, but who can say, could be if this is an indication of a wider trend taking form and reaching critical mass?
Silver has been finding more uses recently, even in clothing, because of it's potential for antibacterial effect, but I thought some at least of that had been exposed as hype and had been discredited?
Will have to check up more on this silver angle again.

Yes, I have a small poition in PURE, bought a while back at higher levels.

PURE Bioscience Granted US Patent on SDC for Food Treatment

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/081030/lath068.html?.v=101

SAN DIEGO, Oct. 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- PURE Bioscience (Nasdaq: PURE - News) today announced that the United States Patent and Trademark Office issued patent number 7,435,438, which covers PURE's process for treating consumable food products with silver dihydrogen citrate (SDC) to reduce or eliminate microbial contamination.
. . .
PURE also has numerous other patent applications pending in the US, including, among others, coverage of SDC in medical, personal care and preservative applications, the anhydrous - or crystalline - form of SDC, and SDC in combination with traditional chemical disinfectants. In addition, patents have issued or are pending for PURE's SDC technology in approximately 70 countries.

RE: Thursday's action in GS ($91.11)

That was a pretty bearish move down for the stock, where it was unable to even get back to Wednesday's intraday high, before rolling over and closing down almost 7%.

The volume was also a bit higher than it was on Wednesday's up day. This down move in GS came in the midst of a 2.1% gain in the DJIA and 2.6% in the S&P.

Looking at S&P 500 chart, it's sitting at its downward resistance line, when you draw the trendline from Sept. 19, to Oct. 2 & 3, and now yesterday.

RSI 7 for the S&P is at 53, the highest its been since Sept. 19 when it was 56.

Chickenpookie
Your post about
”McHugh’s post from Seeking Alpha:”

I will say he is phony? When this expert’s prediction does not work out they will always blame some one for their misery.
He should have taken reality in his calculation before predicting movement of gold price

LOL! Oh, they've reversed policy Norm, they're just horribly bad at pulling the excess liquidity because it negatively affects the overall economy and they are brainwashed to prevent anything that looks like the down side of the cycle, so they kick the liquidity can down the road and we ratchet down another notch or two on the value of our money while the price of goods mysteriously rises to again unforeseen levels.

Remember $5000.00 4 WD pick-up trucks? That was 1972. What does one cost now? $35,000?

See? They never get that liquidity out....next step for pick-ups? $50,000 worthless dollars?

no RSI capitulation picks turned up in screening.

USG on watch list.

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Downgrades:

MFC - to Neutral @ UBS
ORCL - to Market Perform @ JMP

---------------------------------------------------

Have a great day and a better weekend.

Craig.

I realize how the political games are played, including the avoidance of a vote which may later be used against him. An article a while back in NYT specifically referred to one on trial of under age shooters as adults. If he voted YES, it would lose him support among blacks, if NO, among whites. As I recall they also mentioned a total of around 150 PRESENT votes — that's a lot of avoidance in my book.

As President we need someone who will decide even when it may not be popular. His record indicates, in my view, that he will not be free to do so until he has no more elections to save himself for.

Today on Reuters he is heralded as a "gifted orator." Sorry, IMO he does not come close to Lincoln, Churchill. FDR — to judge good grammar and the ability to speak in complete sentences as oration — only shows how low our expectations are after a eight years of a guy who still says "nook-you-ler".

He and Bill Clinton share more commonality than any other past political leaders. Both can work an audience. Both came on the scene following an inept Bush. Both have poor economic conditions and fear to play against. Both speak in memorable sound bites..."I feel your pain." "The American people are angry." Both offer to make life better in short order for ordinary folks.

Neither has a really strong competitor for the office.

PURE: Was in this one a couple years ago. Tommy Thompson is on the Board of Directors...to keep various approvals moving...but that influence may be coming to an end depending on the election, although Thompson is a moderate and could be just fine working with an Obama admin.

I would also keep an eye on debt vs sales/income as this is captital intensive while awaiting various approvals.

Westcoaster,

Well, dreams are better than nightmares. I have slipped from my usual skepticism to cynicism and I know it, but I'm old enough and still have adequate memory, to realize it was and still could be so much better. We seem to expect so little from our elected representatives.

I want to see some genuine vision with specific, doable ideas, not just sound bites and offers of handouts of taxpayer dollars to "make things more fair." (Since he, like McCain, has economic advisors who were a part of the creation of our current woes, he is likely to simply continue with Wall ST. business as usual.)

In the 1960s LBJ offered to "take from the rich and give to the poor." Obama is offing the same in recycled language. Yesterday he made a speech joking about the socialist label as due to his "sharing his toys in kindergarten and giving half of his sandwich to a friend in the fourth grade."

Not even close, but an adequate dodge for a friendly media.

What he is proposing is sharing MY toys and giving MY sandwich to someone else.

That is MY prerogative!

FYI - Bill's 10/31 report is posted as of 8:31am

That's my point Grym. A Senator is a senator by nature, he/she is NOT a decider, they are deliberators within a group of deliberators.

So it's a poor way to judge future performance in a differnt role.

With 150 present votes that law was a loser and they were purposely killing it.
It's just that simple and apparently there wasn't a compromise position for about 150 lawmakers. I don't characterize it as avoidance. It's just smart if 150 did it.

There is a very good reason why we have elected so few Senators as President. The job of Senator is one of compromise. We then expect to judge their ability for a completely different job, where deciding is the norm and there is no place to hide, and we mistakenly apply their senatorial record, which isn't one of deciding but compromising, to the new job.

So look back and ask how many Senators have we elected President? Answer? Not a lot for this very reason.
Carter? Governor.
Reagan? Governor.
Clinton? Governor.
GWB? Governor.

All from positions where their agenda is largely set by someone else....the State Congress they work with sets their budget and controls their executive power.
So they *appear* to be deciders, when in fact they are only 1/3rd the choice and all those 'compromisers' collectively decided.

Westcoaster,

"Criminals want to be caught."

Wow! Now that is not a simple dream that is the kind of fantasy which can lead to a padded cell!

You live in a far different world than I. After 25 years in what started out as a decent neighborhood, I moved my office back home to the basement where I started.

A block away a woman was shot in the head in broad daylight during a carjacking. The ATM across the street had three armed robberies in two months. My building was broken into several times. I caught a guy trying to break into a car in our parking lot (he got away). When the state made it a felony (formerly a misdemeanor with a$25 fine) for me to be armed between my car and office where I often worked in the wee hours — I decide I go where at least I could defend myself.

If any of these criminals wanted to be caught, they have had ample time — non have been. I want them caught, but I also want them sufficiently punished.

The guy who burgled my home when we were away was caught, sentenced to 12 years, and out in less than three. He was armed when caught, but since no one was injured they let him out early. If I were home he would no longer be a threat to anyone.

Question: What makes you think, "Obama's people have been reading this blog..." ?

CP,

I certainly agree the FED is working hard to arrest stagflation and deflation is Bernenke's admitted worst nightmare.

The question in my mind is CAN they do it?

All they have to offer to the world is play money. Money which has lost its 60-year phony luster. Post war the US was able to be recognized as the holder of THE means of exchange. We managed to run that scam to the extreme and get foreign countries to finance our wild excesses in feeding our wants.

Now, I wonder just why anyone would buy more paper. China, Japan who hold so much US debt, can see what they hold is likely to fall even more in value — so why buy more?

All the recently "injected" dollars are short term IOUs which must soon be refunded by longer term. I saw a recent estimate it may be as much as $5 trillion in the next year.

We are playing The $5 Trillion Question game here. What if nobody wants to play with us anymore?

Won't that lead to a massive deflation in US dollars?

Interesting opinion:

http://tiny.cc/dnJxf

The Bahamas is 93% in favor of Obama even though he wants to shut down so-called tax havens (except, one supposes, those that exist in some places in the US). Financial services account for about 20% of GDP & tourism for 50% plus. Tourism is shot. Atlantis, the biggest hotel/resort (10% GDP) is half closed down, including most of the big-name restaurants (Nobu, Seafire, Carmines etc.)

Big development projects -Cable Beach, Ginn sur Mer on Grand Bahama - are suspending ops except for a super high-end resort to be called Albany, developed by billionaire currency trader Joe Lewis, with support from Tiger Woods and Ernie Ells. Nothing, but nothing, deters the uber rich.

Most of the ubers live in walled and gated communities such as Lyford Cay - developed by EP Taylor _ or at Old Fort, or in fortified mansions along Eastern Road or on Paradise Island. Buildings and fences downtown are festooned with razorwire. The urbers have closed down the best beaches, except for patches like Saunders, Goodman's Bay and Montagu. The only really good one still open to the public is Cabbage Beach and access to that one is being constrained by Atlantis.

Who will inherit The Bahamas? The first proprietors were Lucayan Indians. They were wiped out in two generations by the Spanish who enslaved them to work in cane fields and mines in Cuba and S. America. Next came British Empiah administrators and military who defended the islands because of their strategic importance vis a vis the colonies. Then came pirates, who ruled Nassau for 40 years or so. They were wiped out by the British in the late 1700s. Next came British Empire Loyalists who fled there after the US war of independence. They came with their slaves, who were destined to take over the country in the 1960s, to set up plantations. When the plantation lifestyle ended (poor soil and bug infestations) the British went home, leaving the blacks to fend for themselves. Various industries arose and fell... sisal, sponges, market vegetables, ship building.

There arose an oligarchy of white or bright merchants and businessmen, the Bay St Boys, who ran the country as a fiefdom. Then the descendants of slaves captured the government in the and led the country to independence in 1973. Societal values were largely destroyed among the lower class during the 60s by Colombian drug lords who used the isolated islands as transfer points for getting cocaine into the US. The underclass, and some of the upper class, became very wealthy.

Today, there are at least three groups who threaten to take over The Bahamas from the current proprietors, Haitians (and Jamaicans) who flood illegally into the country; the ubers, who are buying up all the best islands and property; or perhaps the Chinese, who may have plans to turn the country into a shrimp and fish factory for their hungry millions. The Chinese presence here is subtle and sinister. They are "giving" The Bahamas a sports centre that can seat 15,000 (the population is 330,000 spread out over 20 islands, with three-quarters resident in New Providence) - a bigger crowd than has ever been assembled in one place in this country. They are "giving" similar presents to other Caribbean countries. Why? Influence in the UN?

Christmas is coming, and with it police warnings to "protec ya tings" because there's always a big upswing in crime before the turkey is served - no different than Toronto, Detroit or New York in that respect.

The climate? It's absolutely perfect - a bit hot in the summer. The sea? Pristine... you can see the bottom from 50 feet with a snorkel mask. The isolated beaches on the Out Islands... the only word I can think of is ethereal. The whole archipelago should be declared a world heritage site and further large scale development should be banned - especially when it involves cutting through beaches and setting up inland marinas for yachts so conspicuously huge and grand that they make one's jaw drop.

Oh yes, the market: I recommend shorting The Bahamas for the next few years.

[Bill Cara note:

This commentary about The Bahamas is generally solid except for maybe three or four points. I won’t mince words here.

The statement, “There are at least three groups who threaten to take over The Bahamas from the current proprietors” such as “Haitians (and Jamaicans),” “ubers” and “Chinese,” is utter nonsense.

There are many hard-working Haitians here and many who have entered the country illegally, who are being deported every week. Haitian immigration is a problem, but not a threat. The wealthy foreigners, or “ubers” as you call them, are quite diverse, live in many communities not unlike anywhere else in the world, are unquestionably law-abiding and welcome here, and have brought investment funds that have helped the nation prosper with the Caribbean’s highest per capita GDP except for Cayman. Nowhere mentioned here is the incredibly strong culture, of which Bahamians are a super proud people.

I assure you, no foreign element is going to take control of The Bahamas any more that the USA, Canada or England.

I take personal offense to the political statement, “The Chinese presence here is subtle and sinister.” I don’t even want to comment because that remark is so stupid.

Also, with respect to “Protect ya tings!” this doesn’t refer to one’s possessions unless you think of a male penis as a possession. The expression, as seen on billboards around town as well as the wall of the Ministry of Health in Nassau, is followed by “Always wear a rubber!”

I don’t know how you “short The Bahamas.” I suppose people might decide to not come here as a tourist or foreign investor, but that would be their problem as I see it. As to the economy, the issues are not unlike those being faced in South Florida or Las Vegas. On the other hand, the opportunities are so many that I could write a book about them.

Finally, the comment about tax-haven should not apply to The Bahamas. There is no income tax act in this country, which doesn't make it a haven. The fact is that nobody in this country, corporation, citizen, resident or investor, pays income tax. This is not a loop hole. There is a fiscal regime here as there is in every country, which raises capital needed to run the government. It happens to be done via excise taxes, stamp taxes, customs duties, permits and licenses, and so forth. There is no free ride. Unlike the British Overseas Territories, this nation is sovereign and has to make a go of it on its on -- and it does. It has a Bahamian Dollar that trades at par and is freely exchangeable with the USD, and has for many years, which means that the country is prudently managed from a monetary and fiscal perspective.

The inference of the word "tax-haven" is clearly that illegal transactions are occurring. Let me tell you that the monetary authorities and banks here are doing a fine job in cracking down on crooks. We will welcome a President Obama should that be the case. We are not the least bit concerned that he would "shut down" the financial sector. The people here respect and uphold the law.

I hope I have set the record straight.]

I won't take this further, it's only my opinion and I'll will refrain from being contentious, except on two points.

Every country has its pluses and minuses. The Bahamas, with a population equal to that of a small city in the US or Canada, excel in sports, music, entertainment and art, having achieved international acclaim in those fields, including olympic gold medals in track and field and sailing... boxing championships and body-building awards. They also have created a fine college soon to be a university under the guidance of a gifted Canadian. They are a remarkable people.

As to the facts, Haitians now make up an unknown but generally estimated 15 to 30 per cent of the Bahamian population. Immigration Department officials confirm privately that for every Haitian deported, 10 illegals melt into the general population, most but not all in unhealthy squatter communities in the more populated islands like Abaco, Eletuthera, Grand Bahama, Andros and New Providence.

Haitians are generally considered to be very good workers and do gardening, yard work, housekeeping, babysitting - jobs that most Bahamians no longer want to do. It is the same as in The United States and Europe, esp Germany, France, England and the Scandinavian countries where the sudden influx of foreign workers has caused social problems. Many Haitians are employed for pittance wages by homeowners and paid secretly in cash. Due largely to their superior work ethic and family and spiritual values, the children outperform in school. Second generation Haitians have done very well in business.

As to the financial sector, Paul Moss, a savvy finance industry executive and activist politician, predicts the sector will be "finished in five years" unless the country institutes an income tax (something a former finance minister, James Smith, has said would ignite a revolution) , and is quoted in the daily press this week as saying, the sector is "at the mercy of Obama and EU attacks." That, again is just his opinion, not mine, to which he is entitled.

[Bill Cara note:

So we are in agreement that there is a "Haitian problem", but I stand by my point that The Bahamas is not threatened to be "taken-over" or "inherited by" Haitians.

Paul Moss and a couple like him here would like to see an income tax. Doing so would kill legitimate foreign investment and financial services in this country. First off; it's not needed. The B$ is at par with the USD and interchangeable on the street. The government's finances are like those of most countries, suffering at this point, but in this case it is of no fault of The Bahamas or its legal or regulatory framework. Because of WTO requirements there will soon (4 to 7 years) be the full removal of currency controls over Bahamians, controls, btw, which have never applied to foreigners here. I applaud that move by govt to put Bahamians on the same level in every way with foreign investors here.

To compete with the world, Bahamians need proper investment advisory services based on active trading, which I am working with a major bank to get started here. Those who are opposed are the very people who support the traditional banking practice here of passive asset management, which I will state for the record is an activity supported by crooks and people in law and private banking here who abet them on account of the high fees. The income tax that some people here would like to see is, in my eyes, a divide-and-conquer strategy, promoted by locals who believe they would then have the upper hand because foreign bankers would disappear and their clients would become low-hanging fruit. How wrong they are; the clients too will leave. In the future, clients will gravitate to the services of proven experts in capital markets, registered in this country, a sovereign nation where regulatory affairs are properly managed.

On the issue of Obama's plans for this country, I believe he will respect it, as previous Administrations have respected it, as a friend, compliant in law and great hosts to US citizens.

There are crooks in every society, but it has become very difficult for them to operate here, and becoming more so every year. Obama wants and needs to eliminate the cheaters. As for me, I am working this month with a team of former US Attorneys, appointed by Presidents over the past 40 years, each of whom has been ratified by the US Senate. In fact one of them is a past head of the US Special Crime Task Force for South Florida and the Caribbean. We are working on projects that will go a long way to establishing Bahamas as a player on the world financial stage. Another of this group is a former Attorney of a US state that is a political hotbed. He is a short-listed candidate for Ambassador here. These people know that The Bahamas is always going to remain a friend of the United States, and they will work to ensure it.

With respect to your comment about James Smith, who people should know is the highly respected former governor of the Central Bank and Minister of State for Finance, I agree with him. Paul Moss is a lawyer who operates a financial services company. I don't know him, but on the face of your attributed remarks, I believe my stated views are in strong opposition.

I too could say so much more, but in time this discussion will play out.]

Craig,

"With 150 present votes that law was a loser and they were purposely killing it.

It's just that simple and apparently there wasn't a compromise position for about 150 lawmakers. I don't characterize it as avoidance. It's just smart if 150 did it."

The 150 "present" votes were how many Obama registered — just his!

Westcoaster and Craig,

I was wrong — not 150, only 130 times avoiding a vote which may have prevented him from advancing his career. Not guy I want defending the country in an emergency.

http://tiny.cc/RqDe5

Bill.

Agreed. Enjoyed the gentlemanly discourse. I admit to being a devil's advocate.

The inheritors theme is one I have used in debates with Bahamian friends... the Lucayans, the colonizers, the Spanish, the French, the Americans, the pirates, the empire loyalists, the white oligarchy, and now the descendants of slaves ... all have taken a turn at the wheel in these islands. No doubt they all believed they would rule these lovely islands forever.

But if past is prologue, one might legitimately ask: "Who's next?"

[Bill Cara note:

I can think of 1000 young Bahamians aged 18 to 35, well-educated, from fine families, solid values, pride in their country, and great hopes for its future. These will be the inheritors. All I ask is that they appreciate the value of quick decisions, and have an open mind to the benefits of transparency.]