Sweden says we're at a bottom now, so behave:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aIJ3EWJZiM00&refer=europe

Its a monster-size bailout:

http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/526638

Good morning everyone!

Did you know that the Chilean stock market has only fallen 20 percent in 2008, and has a lower volatility than both DJIA and FTSE?

The Chilean energy companies will be publishing results today and tomorrow, and they're expected to be quite good. Could be worth having a look at. Enersis is the largest Chilean energy company and trades at NYSE as ADR with the ticker (ENI)

There's a brief article on it on my website at http://tinyurl.com/6eqx78

"Think about it. Ask yourself why you are constantly doing the wrong thing. Write diaries and review the decisions you have made and what beliefs you were holding at the time, and why."

For what it's worth, this is what I started doing, Bill. While it hasn't improved my performance yet, I feel much more grounded now and writing about and reviewing each trade helps take the emotion out of it and allows me to focus on what went wrong or (still waiting) right.

And speak of head games, solar analysts continue to pound on this sector. UBS downgraded a number of stocks yesterday. Many of which are now trading at multi-year lows.

Bill, you read my mind all the way to Tokyo.

The amount of (mis)information that is churned out and twisted in so many ways keeps the general public in a constant state of confusion, leading to numbness and passivity that is clearly capitalized by the spinners. It kind of reminds me of tricksters pulling coins out of children's ears (although in this case, it's out of our adult pockets).

I've been thinking about keeping a trading diary for the past couple of days, thinking that it might be a good idea. I'm starting one right now, to keep my score in place.

LD

Cara 100 Update:

Upgrades:

MFC - to Outperform @ Credit Suisse
NOK - to Buy @ AmTech Research

How's this for a scenario. OPEC is going to take oil back to $100 whether we like it or not. All they have to do is stage an inside attack on a Saudi oil field and I think we'll be there within a week. I agree with Bill in that we are going to rely more and more on our "friendly" neighbors to the north.

keep the insight coming bill, this one has been played by the spin-masters to the tune of 150,000 bucks in two years....i'm a slow learner, but determined.....

TED Spread has been trend very slightly higher for the past few days...

Bill,

in fact, stock prices here in Germany also rise 10% and more. Currently the DAX is not a reliable indicator. Yesterday Volkswagen's weight reached 27%. And because of the mother of all short squeezes the daily changes in Volkswagen were +200%, +100%, -40% which calculates to about 400 or 500 DAX points.

See the following snapshots of the components of the DAX:

This morning: http://www.tradersquest.de/2008/10/29/vw-haelt-den-dax-im-minus-und-wie/
Yesterday: http://www.tradersquest.de/2008/10/28/vw-haelt-den-dax-im-plus-und-wie/

Energy bullish. The bears have been robbed, the bulls have been robbed. Where will the thieves strike next? The oil takeout engineered for the elections is now getting catcalls for 30 dollar oil. Hah, and I used to respect Dennis Gartman. I am waiting for oil sands to go offline at these prices. The takeout of the loon has kept that from happening so far. This applies to SU more than any other.

Calvino:

Don't worry (parenthetically), when the Fed cuts today $ will go down more bringing oil up.

n2s- (off topic)- does this take you back to the seventies?

http://tinyurl.com/5tdfvw

sv, Si02 - BCE: Yes, I have it. Dec and Jan calls.

Stance: Very Cautious Bull. Yesterday down by the stream in the berry thicket I noticed some scat with buttons, tattered shreds of fabric, and a ranger badge embedded, so I know there's still a bear lurking...

Can we still utilize take-out artists as contrarian indicators? Perhaps I've been concentrating too heavily on improving fundamentals... Simultaneous equation?

EEM - keeping an eye on that one.

I love the countdown on cnbc to fed decision. maybe they can put up their countdown for dow 12,000

Vad - a question on price/vol:

XLK & XLF are down the most. Volume on XLF and GOOG is closed to average day high in the first half hour, but the price hardly moves. Is this Smart money buying or selling?

bsi87 said:

"To continually urge caution after the DJIA has dropped 6000 points over months is shutting the barn door...after the horse is gone AND the barn burned down."

"We know about the markets."

There are all types of traders and investors on this site, and with different time frames and varying degrees of skill and experience. That makes it nearly impossible for Mr Cara or anyone else who contributes here, to speak to everyone's situation. There are simply too many variables.

My urging people to be cautious over the past few weeks may have saved someone from buying full bore back in mid September when Mr. Cara turned bullish. It was a premature bullish call; but I think the point he was trying to make is that from a larger perspective, investors should be looking to go long instead of staying in cash or being short. And that's a valid stance that bears consideration, for sure.

There are many here who do not understand or have not mastered the need to use stop losses, or to use options as a way to hedge. Mr. Cara has repeatedly mentioned the need for risk management, but not everyone who comes here understands how to implement such a strategy.

Now, there are MANY here who got absolutely trampled by buying into equities that had already fallen a lot. They bought possibly in part because they believed (and misinterpreted) what they read here, and possibly because they thought "it's already down so much, it can't possibly go lower."

Anyone who has been operating in the markets long enough knows that stocks can always fall lower, and stay down longer than what seems to be rational or possible.

To me, this is not about who has made all the right calls on the market. The market will crush any and all over bloated egos (and ultimately your bank account) over time. And I've been wrong many, many times. Discerning the markets is not easy.

Back on September 29, I stated that the markets had more room on the downside, and urged caution. It wasn't easy going against the advice of Mr. Cara as his experience and expertise certainly dwarfs mine. But from the price action in the in the major market indices, it told me that lower prices were ahead.

Here's what I said back on September 29:

"I see lower equity prices ahead in the U.S. once this next "relief rally" is over, prices that will breach the recent lows set back on September 18, 2008."

Posted by: ToddinFL at September 29, 2008 11:41 AM

"This thing goes much lower.

And I mean a whole lot lower. It's a necessary purging. It must happen.
And it will go go down more than many think."

Posted by: ToddinFL at September 29, 2008 3:27 PM

Since intraday on September 29, the S&P 500 dropped from roughly 1170 to 850 in round numbers. That's a 27% decline in 9 trading days. Many individual stocks fell a lot more than that.

So while you may be a more sophisticated investor who has no need or desire to read my words of "caution", there are probably some others who may have benefited.

When this site gets a message filter, you can place me in that list of people to ignore. That's fine, because as I said before, I'm not here to make enemies, nor do I want to be an annoyance.

[Bill Cara note:

ToddinFl, I am not the enemy. You're continued focus on yourself vs me is not going to be tolerated here. Either you make your own comments and leave me out of it, or you won't be permitted here at all, your remarks in the last para notwithstanding. Understand? With respect, you seem to have the world down pat, so why not set up your own blog?]

2nd_ave - Off topic
pardon my interjection; didn't the 'Twinkie Defense' arise from that case?

I've always wanted to visit Chile since I was a boy studying world culture in grade school.

kp84 - OT

Yes, that was the crime that introduced that defense.

i guess the fomc meeting is going well right now?

Shallow thoughts from DENSA:

Has anyone considered that yesterday's market spike up was Part I of a concerted effort by PPT/HBB in order to cast a better light on the economy which might help McSame in Tuesday's election?

Question to the group: Does anyone have a take on Manulife in regards to the horrible demise of their 4:1 leverage program started during the tech wreck (believe it is toned down to 2:1) Then as now many Manulife 'investors' will have sustained massive market losses that have to accounted for? Also, when MFC took over John Hancock, is it not possible they took on some questionable investments (ie Toxic debt) at that time? Am curious and appreciate any insight. Thanks

ToddinFL,

Still in the bear camp with ya. Was a bull in late September. Dug a hole to China on that one.

Sold CNR @ $52 today. Note that a 600 point up day on the TSX does not an 800 point down day make. At least we're back to last Thursday now.

Might try and ride the Trans-Siberian railway today (RSX).

ive been burned before trying to play the moves in gold on FMOC announcement days. it always seems to end the day the opposite of what i thought it would.

so with gold screaming higher right now, and with talk of upwards of a full point cut in the cards on bloomberg, im holding back making any moves because the schizophrenia of the market the past few months may still be at play. a sustainable move above $800 w/ the gold miners following suit on strong volume would be my green light, until then its noise imho.

good luck.

kp84- that's right...successfully arguing that the excessive consumption of Twinkies (and [Classic] Coke) diminishes a person's responsbility for a crime (along with successfully arguing that MCD was responsible for foreseeing and preventing the idiotic behavior of patrons who buy coffee) tells me the key to winning in court is location, location, location...

Just sold XOM, NVDA, DGP

Back to 40% cash from 90%. Had great moves on those stocks, so I needed to cash in to buy on the dips.

ToddinFL

Keep posting... I always look forward to reading them. You won't be on my filter list...

[Bill Cara note:

He won't be on mine either. But if he holds himself out as anybody different than others in this community, and he continues to set up a him vs me scenario, you will not be reading him here either.]

ToddinFL thank you, while I listened some to what you had said, the thrill seeking of jumping back in lured me(too early) into GG, ESLR, SLW and RIO. Good companies IMHO...but still too early. Thank you for advising caution.

[Bill Cara note:

These are good companies; the stocks are under pressure; I have been opining that markets are working through the cycle bottoming process and that traders need to exercise caution. What I don't like is for ToddinFL to pigeonhole me and set me up as the enemy. He can do that in his own blog if that's what he thinks might happen here. I am extremely tolerant. People here can say whatever they want -- except set me up. I got to a high level in a dog-eat-dog securities industry because I eliminated people and ideas that didn't stand on their on merits. ToddinFL has to stand on his own, without trying to use me as a crutch. He's cautious; we are all cautious. He is not more cautious, nor is he more responsible, nor experienced, or hard-working, than me. Let it go, people. If he wants to set up his own blog, I'll point you to it. If he wants to include himself as a part of this community as one of the many Bears, that's fine too. There are many Bears here. I welcome them just as much as I welcome Bulls. Bears and Bulls are why we have a market. ToddinFL is just another one.]

dr.cosa - I interpret you're holding gold and miners in wait-see mode. I observe a rising spot in confirmation of the mechanics of my inner voice.

[Bill Cara note:

Until a minute ago, spot gold moved up to 771.30.]

NAK - Some decent volumes and price movement lately, but lots of hurdles for this project.

"I got to a high level in a dog-eat-dog securities industry because I eliminated people and ideas that didn't stand on their on merits."

Ahh, Bill? Knowing your, que se dice, paisano? using that word "eliminated" has me a bit, well...uh...jumpy, yeah, jumpy :-)

[Bill Cara note:

Why be jumpy? I'm just telling it like it is. Paulson and Fuld were not called bully and gorilla for nothing. The securities industry is a tough business. Everybody tries to give you the edge. You deal with it head on or you let it eat you up. I don't get phased when people try to cut me a new one. Like I wrote earlier; float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. I am a free spirit to a point. Some people don't like to see the other side, but I tell you it's necessary. This blog would degenerate into the typical boards you see everywhere you look. I won't let it. Ninety-nine percent of the people in this community don't comment, but they write me letters, and I know what they want. They want to see my views challenged, and so do I, but there is a right way and a wrong way to do that. When I think it's the wrong way, it's because I don't think it's in the interest of the community. Twenty years ago I stopped caring about what people think of me. The market and this blog is not about me; it's about you. I throw out ideas. I need to have you throw out yours. Then the community can best see the issues and they can better make up their mind. That's a great service to society. As I say, in doing this, I'm not the enemy, and I'll eliminate any person from writing stuff here who tries to set me up.]

oops "you're"

Watching the bailout process had me wondering whether the Hayek camp isn't wrong and they have placed their confidence in an extremist view. The price movements of bullion in the currency whip-sawing of the last few weeks and the rally along with the bailouts certainly puts those views to the test.

The thing that astonishes me is how little effort is spent in the business press on the probability that commercial interests involved in derivatives will merely go on as they have before, attempting to expand the reach of third party obligations to the point of a complete market trap.

Hayek camp wrong about what F6?

No one person can time this market !!!

This community with all its contributors around the world and headed by Bill Cara has made us think...we are here to think and learn from eachother...that is why I keep coming back to this community

In the end the responsibility of pushing the button on the buy or sell order lies with us...

learn,think then act...

I'm long in this market..

SV

ToddinFL

Keep posting... I always look forward to reading them. You won't be on my filter list...

[Bill Cara note:

He won't be on mine either. But if he holds himself out as anybody different than others in this community, and he continues to set up a him vs me scenario, you will not be reading him here either.]

Hi Bill,

I read the blog everyday and want to give my feedback on Todd.

I think he is just trying to contribute back to the blog with his own research. Because you allowed people to share their views, then people like myself take responsibility in making their trades.

For me, I listened to you instead of Todd and currently am down over 10,000 in less than 45 days. But, I had a choice so it is not your fault and I would never blaim you. I am in it for the long haul.

My point is, if you don't allow Todd's and tell your readers not to listen to talking heads then we have no choices except to follow your advice. I didn't think that was your purpose and surely don't think you want all that responsiblity.

Well have a nice day in the bahamas, it is raining and cold in SF today.

ToddinFL and BSI, I'm sure I speak for the community in saying I value both your posts, and they both help me cut through the noise and con that Bill discusses this AM. Keep posting, keep the ego out, don't take personally anything that comes back at you. We're all independent remember.

Scottraders

Anyone know how I can copy an article from the streaming news window to share with the group? There is no right click option to copy.

Under Dell 10/28/2008 there is a good article about future spending for "cloud data centers" which people in the group may find interesting. There is also a link to the Dow Jones News Wire which has the article but I am not a subscriber to it.

vanillabean- it's raining in SF?

QT,

try highlighting the whole article and press "ctrl c"?

The Hayek camp asserts that all fiat currencies fail. We are certainly seeing evidence of those failures unfolding, but that growth in the precious metals sector is not a given as a resolution.

If these currency systems utterly collapse, then there is no measure with which to establish value and certainly bullion prices on the COMEX have been following along in with one foot in the commodities trade and one foot in the currency trade, without establishing any new basis to efficiently determine its price. So gold is behaving like any other currency for the moment.

The only time gold spot prices truly outperformed was for a few days when yields on treasuries collapsed, but if the bottom is in then we can't expect to rely on a similar move in the near future.

como se dice.

just to chime in,

there is a big difference between a person giving their observations on the markets on their own blog, to whom we know the identity/track record of and a person who simply begins posting their observations in the discourse and proceeds to throw in our faces their calls because they turned out to be right in the short term.

its not that ToddinFL's opinions should be ignored, its the approach that is somewhat acidic. its as if he was chastizing us for not following his advice when it would be far riskier to follow the advice of a stranger who gives minimal objective evidence to support thier initial claims beyond a few lines about how things may turn out.

you can appreciate why people may have been inclined to follow Bill's advice that a poster on his message board.

i didnt follow anyone's advice and im still down so shows how much i know!!!

sorry pookster

Rain in SF - You mean a low cloud has blown in over the bay. It only rains between Thanksgiving and mid April (sometimes every other day it seems) for an average of 14in/year.

I've caught about 41in of rain in my gauge here so far this year. Average for us.

CP- lots of microclimates in SF...i just don't see any precipitation out my window right now..

re:picks

My watch list this. RSI 7 day below 10 or nearby

KNDL,CGX,CVD,LAMR,MEOH

Posted by: bsi87 at October 29, 2008 7:41 AM [link]

KNDL +11.6%
CGX -6.7%
CVD +4.4%
LAMR +5.9%
MEOH +6.5%

There's always a bull market somewhere...;)

gc

Thanks for the tip. It worked. Will have to shorten the article, it's very long.

WUC-V - A uranium explorer with an interesting property. First they spin off WLC-V with the known lithium aspect (courtesy Chevron) of the property - then while drilling for U3O8 at the property find good AU values. Gotta love the dance, but still long way on this one.

Loonie up 3.5% today. I can imagine just how difficult it is to make money in the forex trade when you can only see huge percentage gains like this once in a blue moon.

Makes me think that leverage is still being used in the markets, especially the currency trades.

"If these currency systems utterly collapse, then there is no measure with which to establish value and certainly bullion prices on the COMEX have been following along in with one foot in the commodities trade and one foot in the currency trade, without establishing any new basis to efficiently determine its price. So gold is behaving like any other currency for the moment."

Ya' know, this may be the clearest expression of what I thought I was saying...Since the whole world is basically fiat, they are the measure of value. Add to this that a government/banking system's power resides in the control of money (both making and spending) then we get back to that dissonance between Bill and Kaimu I was trying to reconcile. The world will likely stay fiat based, because to put the power into gold is too much for politicians.

Now a currency within the system may face collapse (Hellooooo USD!!!)but other currencies will be stronger. The fly in the ointment for me, is the counterparty risk to other currencies and economies in the $ demise. That's why I theorize that part of what is happening now, is machinations to keep the world addicted to the $ as much as it's addicted to oil to maintain financial currency hegemony.

dr.cosa - I'm glad you haven't followed my advice, that's for sure.

nemo - You made me hungry, made a trip to the fridge to polish off the gato tamale's.

My past purchases of agu,eca,ry,cnq and cos.un are all doing fine (holding) for further gains :)

SV

re:CGX

buy stop 11/11.02 limit

This is a comment from a blog follower on FUNDMYMUTUALFUND.COM regarding the cabal in mainstream financial media:

October 28, 2008 2:47 PM
Guy said...

What seems like a long time ago, I use to write for RealMoney.com; in one of my articles, I recommended being in cash; one of the editors told me that cash was not an option.

"Now a currency within the system may face collapse (Hellooooo USD!!!)"

I was thinking EURO in the back of my mind, if the USD doesn't start to normalize.

I just liquidated most of my positions on the premise that I sense here that there may be a selloff this PM. (TCK, GG, OIL.TO,SLW, AGU) I shall see. Daytrading. Nice work BSI, keep those posts coming. What do you see for ready cash right now?

Here is my crystal ball
If Fed cut 0.25 we go down big
If Fed cut 0.50 neutral reaction
If Fed cut 0.75 to 1.00 we go up big
Let’s see how wrong I am?

dr. cosa
Very good post.

WC,

CGX. Plotting a ST resistance line. It has to break out or no go.

Bill,

Thanks for the great commentary on anchoring. Isn't the doomsday scenario for the Canadian oil industry we are now hearing from the media a perfect example of this? We read headlines that the price of oil has crashed to levels of May 2007 as though this were an eon in time. We hear that oilsands developments and current production will be cancelled or curtailed for this reason. It seems to me that if one turns the clock back 17 months it was a time when the then current price of a barrel of oil was more than sufficient to be announcing vast development plans, and their $billions were being put to work. It was only a few years prior to that when the oil industry was saying that $40 -$50 barrels were all that were need for a flourishing oilsands development to happen. We cannot be constantly mislead into making bad decisions by what we hear and read in the media. Thanks for putting us on the right track. Now, knowing when the train will leave the station is the big question.........

[Bill Cara note:

The same thing was happening a couple years ago with regard to Bombardier (BBD/B.TO) at $2.50, when you made the comment that the price was being depressed by special interests who were holding it down while they were buying the stock. You thought the price would soon triple, and after looking into it, I agreed. The stock soon zoomed to $9.00 based on the same info that you and I were seeing reported by the company, but which the analysts and media were ignoring. Do you recall how for years the Cdn media would say that the Skydome -- built at an $800 million cost to the taxpayers -- was a piece of garbage. Guess who ended up buying it for a song? The media giant Ted Rogers, and now the same building is known as the Rogers Centre and valued at multi-hundred billions. I recall a meeting with a Scotiabank manager to discuss my working with an investor group making an investment in what was then called the Corel Centre. This banker crapped all over the building and said the bank was not prepared to support it financially. Guess what? The same building is now called Scotia Place. This stuff goes on all the time. Most people haven't a clue how corrupt business is. They live in a dream world thinking the media must be right.

Re the media, they have a busy day with plenty of demands. It's not an easy job reporting when the boss wants a sticky audience, so entertainment creeps into the communications. But, yes, I do believe that some writers for major news media are bought-and-paid-for shills for big business interests. Many years ago, one of the top regulators mentioned to me that a certain national columnist was, in his opinion, a shill for a particular group. We all need filters.]

I'm also thinking that the whole banking strike is a misnomer, because the money is going into favourite trades as before, but will not seek out those that the politicians in their bailout bid more or less desire as the outcome.

Its going to become a test of wills in who controls what and who decides where the money goes.

stopped out of PPC at 1.11.

Shoulda sold it all when it was up. Oh well.

letting MICC go. 25% in a couple days is enough, small position.

ToddinFL got carried away in responding to bsi87; but I think his intentions were good. His general comments were valid (i.e. less sophisticated readers can benefit from additional caveats). Time-stamped comments may have become a trigger for us since the blow-out with Shark.

I am just trying to supply context here. I am not wanting to enter the ring. And I greatly appreciate the posts from bsi87...

[Bill Cara note:

ToddinFL is a good and well-intentioned person. I just told him privately that if he drops the "I" in his communications, his acceptance will skyrocket.]

ST ascending wedge on SHLD. sell limit 59.56/trailing 1.8 sell stop

Here's an article about Merrill's Canadian housing market alarms: http://tinyurl.com/6pqj4d. There was also an article yesterday in the Toronto Star about the possibility of many condo projects in Toronto going under because of funding issues and a fast slowdown in Canada's housing sector.

Does anyone have any thoughts on the matter?

I guess the other point is that there is no reason for any of us to give a play-by-play of our own records (other than Bill). We are not here to compete.

re:SHLD out at 59.57

i am anxious to book these gains on SLW but with rae cut comes weaker dollar, or potentially short term rise in commodoties. but the inter-relation of other currencies is throwing my judgement off. i am now a bit confused if i should hold this sucker and risk becoming the sucker, short term.

NYU - nothing wrong with taking gains...

long GGX

bsi87 - I came up with a target of DOW 10k to 11.5k with those 50/200 DEMA figures...

vinod - Maybe we don't need to go up until the numbers all settle down to equilibrium. In terms of interventionist theory, we go up only if/when they want us to go up.

MFC.to in at $25.29, NOT.VN $0.83. Averaging down, bought yesterday at $1.02.

bsi87

Just curious, in a fast moving market like yesterday into the close, do you trade more positions or fewer positions with greater size.

NYUgrad,

i have the same feeling,
i just have this gut feeling the whole rate-cut scenario may turn out very differently than we all think in terms of a large cut boosting gold and the markets overall.

i hope im wrong and they cut 75 bbp and gold/miners lift off though!

i think i will close out my position on slw sometime today. just not sure when. watching the stoch, rsi, volume action. my hunch is sellers will show up if we rally post fed decision.

stocks are sold right?

but my stance may change with the wind here.

NYUgrad:

I'm in your boat. The recent past says take gains because a Bear market strategy is to get out before everyone else does, the question is, and this seems to be going around more (ie BILL), if this is the Bull market turn (bottoming) than a longer hold strategy makes sense. Of course, if you sell now and have to buy back a bit hire after the decision, I still think you'll make lots of money.

Canadians are living in a dream world if they have some kind of magical power to avoid a housing market collapse. Prices have already come off quite a bit, though reportage in the papers have lagged the market by many months.

Canadians are borrowing money based on credit derivatives, probably provided by foreign investors, though they might be unaware. Their interest rates skyrocket when the counterparty swaps require significant increases in cash payments. Canadians are also exposed to equity loss in their homes and may be required to re-imburse their mortgage for those losses.

Note that currency swings and collapses occurred with the housing collapse in Europe and their banks' exposure to developing markets.

stockcharts.com TSX Capped Real Estate Index

http://tinyurl.com/3l37fo

northvan - I post play by play to illustrate the strength of my beliefs. I made a major commitment at 10.8k on the BB, then bought GG at $20.19 not too long ago. Gains on GG will make the last month worth while.

NYU

u have several choices.

U can put a sell stop limit order at 3.21. The 10AM high. That's the price Ma and Pa bought. If it sells off below that, then IMO, the big boys don't want to hold it at higher prices.

Or use 1/3 the 10 day ATR (about .27) as a trailing sell stop.

If u have an oversize position, take a bit off now and then use one of the techniques.

RSI 7 day not to 50 yet so you might be too early.

GL

NYU

There's the old "do what u don't want to", i.e. hold even tho' u wanna sell.

;)

tsx comp ..........up 325 points

SV

They've got to take the USD and the YEN down or the damage will be too great?

thx to all for input. wont blame anyone whichever way it goes. i had small position, about 3k shares at 2.85. not a bad gain if i take one now.

I will prob sit tight until the afternoon unless it breaks down.

it looks like it is gaining some traction up now.

there is always my "monkey" trick

I'm trying to remember the last time a scheduled rate annoucement wasn't heavily sold, despite what the rate cut was.

At 25bps it's "the cut was too small to give the economy impetus, better sell" reaction, and at 75bps it's "well if the Fed saw fit to cut 75 bps then we must be deep in the brown stuff, SELL!".

In terms of market reversal from bear to bull, I'd see any move up on pretty much any announcement as a very good thing.

So I went shopping this morning and noticed Mr. Market has pretty well implemented an across the board 10% + price increase! And I can't help but notice that these are the same "goods" that Mr. Market had on the clearance isle just a day ago!! So now I wondering if Mr. Market's new partner, Mr. Gov, is behind this? Or is it that Mr. Market went from popping downers to popping uppers in the last 24-36 hrs... what do you think? What if... say WMT behaved in this way... flipping their business model upside down on a whim... how long would they stay in business?

Si02,

As if Arctic Glacier didn't already have enough problems:

http://tinyurl.com/6nl3rd

Regards

The irony about the Yen meltup is that the JCB will have to sell Yen to stabilize it from going beyond 90.

The method they use to 'sell' Yen is to naked short the currency, as this is the means by which to assert that the Yen is flooding the market. At the same time, illegal naked shorting was banned recently in Japan.

SLW - nice liquidity on the Dec. $5 call strike - going for $.45-50 right now.

You could sell them and cap gains until after mid-December when they expire. It would net you $5.50 or so per share (which if you bought over the last couple days would be a very 2 month nice gain).

Time to re-asess (everything).

Big picture view:

I previously, actually first 1 & 1/2 years ago, posited that this is a debt bear market in the first hand, that equities are secondary, and more recently that the equity bulls were under the debt bears' steamroller.

The only thing that has changed in this view is that the debt debacle is being moved from the corporate & banking level to the sovereign nation state level.

This is a major systemic change, and it is hard to get one's head around the further implications, at least for me personally.

Preliminarily, the world's focus becomes more nation state - local again, with potentially vicious sovereign debt / currency competition arising. More on thos theme further on.

European bond flood to test investor appetite
http://tinyurl.com/6379aq

The European bond markets are about to get a little crowded. With
governments and banks expected to swamp the markets with more than €2,600bn
($3,255bn) in new debt next year, competition among issuers to attract
investors will never be greater.

TerryC - oilsands costs:

Likewise, I recall when $40/barrel was all they needed in the oilsands to make money. That's changed pretty dramatically in the last few years, though. As people flooded into northern Alberta to work the sands, the cost of living skyrocketed, the pool of tradespeople became exhausted and project costs ballooned on the back of higher base wages and greater overtime. I can well believe that they'd need over $60/barrel now.

That said; part of the noise we have to filter in assessing the oilsands stocks is the difference between profitable production and economically-feasible expansion, (i.e. I figure they're still making production profits, but having to rein in the rapid expansion plans). And the question I wind up asking myself is will the stock price be suppported by OK profit or do they have to be growing rapidly to satisfy the market?

What happened to TBT & TOG? Feels like something on the horizon here...

Bill piasan,bruddah I love ya man and you own the house but I gotta tell ya sometimes I need the other guys to talk me down when you say bull and I want to go blasting into the pit and get them bears. My old crew used to just shoot first and think later. Its not that kinda game anymore and I know I know, you keep saying it. I just keep not getting it. Maybe its me. I dont think so. Hmm do ya think? Maybe the school you're setting up is the thing, but for an old Chicago Italian kid, I, like never paid attention to the real stuff when I was in school. There was so much other stuff happening. Sorry, ya know I think now I should have. Theres a great teacher that comes to mind, and she really cared about me but the dang classroom was where I could see the Jack in the Box where we would hand out and I looked over there a lot.
Anyway what I'm trying to say is that its very easy for this densa master in training to misread your words through no fault of yours. I made the decisions and I pulled the trigger. The lessons I am learning sure are invaluable. I may never trade again but I have learned there is a lot more down after its down a lot and the market can go down longer than my money can hold out. I got my arms around my chips so you guys dont see what a lunk I been.
I am really happy for you Bill in all that you have been working on finally coming to where you want it. Never in our time frame but you're there. I personally would like you to keep picking stocks (for me) but I see the wisdom of those other guys and what they're telling you. So just whisper me their name and I'll go have a talk with them. Nice like, you know.
Peace from North Puget Sound

DBA very strong today, rsi buy alert 8 days ago, I am long

401,

Since volatility is greater, position sizes are smaller.

If the stock meets my criteria (RSI 7 day <10, Max pain 20% higher, etc), I then look for hourly MACD divergences. Usually that low happens in the first 1-2 hours.

I want to buy 'em when they've been kicked to the curb, not when they're chasing 'em.

Fazeli - Momey is tight throughout the world, including Canada to an extent. The precariously funded and debt ridden are the first set of dominos. How many dominos will interventionists need to satisfy their goals?

heres what im thinking at this point:

gold plunging a bit here at $754.
its adding to my feeling that the initial run up was a head fake of sorts with the knee-jerk reaction that a big cut will spark markets.

if we fall hard below $740 i dont think it bodes well. if we can bounce off $750 and move strongly higher then its off to the races in gold/miners, at least for the short term imho.

good luck, way may be scratching our heads in a about 3 hours.

"I guess the other point is that there is no reason for any of us to give a play-by-play of our own records (other than Bill). We are not here to compete.

Posted by: northvan [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 29, 2008 11:39 AM"

I wholeheartedly disagree. One of my favorite features of this blog is watching skilled traders show their play-by-play. Guys like 2nd_ave and Chickenpookie and bsi87 (and others) have demonstrated their knowledge, so I know to put more weight on their posts and to try and learn from them. Think of this forum as a FREE-MARKET, and learn what you can, when you can.

I was just reading all the previous posts for the day, and I can't help but think that too much time is being wasted discussing "forum politics". First shark_attack, and now ToddinFL.

This is Bill's blog and he gets to run it his way, regardless of whether we agree or disagree with some of his responses / decisions. I, for one, come back because I like it here :)

I was somewhat surprised to see today's big move in silver & SLW, so i started looking at the volume / accumulation picture.

Silver & SLW seem to have bottomed out now finally in all time frames.
Yesterday I could not see this coming intraday.

I do not see this being the case in gold or crude, still have to look at a lot of other stuff.
Gold is more foggy, but especially crude should have a little more downside ahead.

As to equity sectors, IYR, XLY & QQQQ still are bearish, especially IYR.

Everything else I see as neutral but with a bearish slant.

Today is otherwise the big stop-running orgy day, the boyz can hardly wait to pick their retail clients' pockets.

SLW: timberrrrrrr

[Bill Cara note:

I wrote about SLW at the close of Monday when the price was $2.59. As of 12:40pm ET today, SLW was $3.60. That's a lift of +39% in less than a day and a half. Yes, it's volatile. there will be ups and downs, but I think the company is fine, which was my point.]

Selective regulation is a double edged blade which is used to steer the marketplace.

Chickie

DJIA 50 DEMA 10,0029

200 DEMA 11472

bsi87

Thanks...I've always traded with the trend so I'm reactionary to countertrend moves.

I'm thinking there will be continuing issues with European bank bad loans to the developing world, and this will keep pressure on the Euro. The fed rate cut is a two day Euro party, I think, which will boost oil & gold during that time. After the party is over, however, Euro will drop, as will oil and gold. Honestly I see things moving sideways with high volatility for the next few months. OPEC is a wild card for me, if this time they can actually stick to their production limits then oil might have a bottom. Otherwise oil tracks the buck, whose short term trend upwards I do not think will be broken by today's Fed action.

I think you're right dr. cosa! Bullion has become an unwitting warning flag on market falls, as its fate seems to be tied to market moves, and not some imaginary notions about flying high against fiat currency. Should the gold price decline precipitously here, you can expect the same for the markets in general.

2nd Avenue -

yes - no

It is raining in "menlo park". Should have introduced myself sooner. I love reading all your posts and have followed some of your trades too.

Just learning - I started to learn trading at the worst time in history. Didn't even have time to buy bill's book yet since this thing heated up so fast.

I am optomistic but today, sure wish I was in the bahamas today with bill! cold and damp!

Billy,

Thanks for the heads up on the SLW calls.

It would have been sweet to have written the 2.50 puts even yesterday and follow up today with selling the 5 calls.

Unfortunately, it is only today that I am showing a modest cash balance in my trading account.

Maybe tomorrow, I'll get to write some SLW puts!

TED Spread is continuing to go up a bit...now up to 2.80 vs. 2.5 a couple of days ago...

As someone said earlier, people need to stop calling out Bill and comparing/quoting their comments against his. Everyone must accept the responsibility of their own trades, accept that markets are not operating efficiently, accept that we are in a period of massive volatility, and if you can't, then stay in cash. I think most of the readers here are tired of "I listened to Bill and am down $XX." This is not an advisory service, it is a blog of someone kind enough to share his thoughts and ideas. We don't pay Bill to manage our money, or even write a newsletter. Remember that you are acting (those of you who are complaining) blindly almost on the ideas of someone you do not know. I think the error lies in people coming here looking for "tips" on specific stocks to buy, when, how much, and for how long, rather than taking advantage of the insight and education we may get.
When Bill says he likes stocks, or recommends stocks, why not set them up on a watchlist, and when you are comfortable, make your move, knowing full well that given the current conditions, there is likely well above a 50% probability that you will lose money. Set your stops...use common sense, do your own due diligence. If you are treating the market as a casino, then you have to be prepared to lose.
Sorry for ranting.

Reading a great book called When Markets Collide by Mohamed El-Arian. When done, I will start Intermarket Analysis by John Murphy. Anyone here have anything to say about the latter?

SLW (cdn)

bought Monday at $3.99... then, of course it tanked... decided to hold it for a day or two with a sell target of 4.36 (last friday's unfilled PP)... gap up today so put a sell in at 4.29... then watched SLV and SLW and got out at 4.15, then, of course it filled the $4.36 PP...
Planning to buy again in the 3.65 to 3.75 range (yesterday's PP) and then go long term if conditions warrant it.

I bought SLW in the past and made some money on it... I like the company and the plan... I do not think they will have problems with the debt or raising money if needed... they got both when they were just starting out and now they have a proven track record... I think I would lend them money so that's why I am going long when "the price comes to me".... I am still trying to learn... My track record speaks for itself "Damned if I do and Damned if I don't."

NYUgrad - Please bring out your funky monkey only in cases where weak advances need turbo-boost. His mojo is too valuable otherwise.

My ENCANA is moving....up $5.8 cdn to $61.33

SV

Eric
That wasn't as rant and I fully concur.

401

Depends on the time frame, doesn't it?

Elder uses a 26 period EMA to determine trend (top time period usually weeks), watches for a kangaroo reversal at the 50 EMA (usually days), and uses the hourly to determine entry/exit.

But the 50/200 day EMA's are so far away, one can't open a short under Elder's system.

From Don Coxe this AM:
All-Clear for Bulls: Requirements

We have been discussing the special characteristics of this Mama Bear market with clients and have been outlining the conditions for the next bull market.

A Mama Bear market is a plunge approximating 50%, (or more, as in 1929), and this one qualifies because of +40% drops across the world.

To confirm that this Mama has done her worst, the signs will be:

1. A TED Spread reading of less than 150 on a sustained basis.
2. A VIX reading of less than 30 on a sustained basis.
3. A pullback in the Dollar Index (DXY) to 80 or less.
4. A pullback in the yen to below par.
5. A contained rally in gold (not a leap to $1,200 or some such number).
6. A BKX reading above 50—and preferably above 60.

NOT....DOWN .O6 TO .85 CDN

SV

Fed announcement:

For newbies--Remember the first market move is usually reversed 15-20-30 minutes later, when you see the real move. (key word is usually)
*****************************

BH---“cast a better light on the economy which might help McSame” on Tuesday?

Too late, IMO. They should have started that a month ago if that’s what they wanted to accomplish.
***********************
2nd—--“the key to winning in court is location, location, location...”
LOL! Reminds me of those John Grisham novels, some of which had a location of Mississippi.

And of course there’s always this: “Prosecutor's comments in felony-murder prosecution, comparing defense counsel to both a magician and a squid were not prejudicial,
particularly in light of defense counsel's comparison of prosecutor to the Wizard of Oz.
U.S. v. Lopez-Alvarez, 970 F.2d 583 (1992)
*********************
Vanillabean—“I started to learn trading at the worst time in history.”

IMO, think you’re learning during the best time in history!

I wish I could listen to Don Coxe, but there's some kind of fault in the javascript for the webpage with the conference calls which crashes my browser.

Those are pretty good indicators, but I would throw in a top in the Gold/Silver ratio.

Looney gains 7 cents in a few hours X greenback

unprecedented? I dunno.

but this is quite a bit crazy.

Fransix
What OS do you use?

FranSix

Have you tried a different browser, works fine for me in FireFox 3, just select play in windows media audio.

yvr - using an iMac. For some reason, the latest upgrades of Safari and Firefox both have the same effect.

Thanks, everyone, for the advice regarding not borrowing from a credit card. I am pleasantly surprised to see that so many people here care about what I do -- that's what makes it a community!

Normally, I would never borrow money from a credit card to buy stocks. However, we have just witnessed a historic event (complete decimation of gold miner stocks in a single month), and now we may very well witness another historic come back for goldminers. Don't forget: LIBOR has been coming down for 13 straight days (I have been watching it closely), which means that the credit conditions are improving and the need to hoard $USD is decreasing every day. Here is what John Hussman wrote during his most recent weekly review on Sunday:

"Given the enormous expansion of government
liabilities we are observing worldwide, it is unlikely that we will observe a long-term absence of inflation once the recent drop in monetary velocity abates. “Monetary velocity” declines when investors hoard government
liabilities as safe havens – this suppresses inflation pressures by supporting the value of government liabilities, including currency. But velocity can also shoot higher once credit fears subside. So one of the casualties of easing credit fears is likely to be weakness in the U.S. dollar, and a concurrent strengthening in commodities – particularly precious metals, which serve as a currency substitute. Given
the pricing of precious metals shares here, it would not be unexpected to see the XAU roughly double within the next 12 months from these levels."

“The strategy of waiting for a measurable improvement in market action historically has not performed nearly as well as a strategy of gradually increasing market exposure, on declines, as the market's valuation improves [i.e., prices drop].”

"The time for fear is when stocks are strenuously overvalued. The time for panic is when they are overvalued and market internals begin to deteriorate. We are now beyond the time for fear, and beyond the time for panic."

I called WGW today and asked them if they might have any trouble meeting their debt payments. The representative told me that even with the current mining plan (under which they will produce less gold than was originally planned for 4Q08), they will still have no problem meeting their debt payments. In fact, they will pay out their debt on an accelerated schedule (before 2014), since their current agreement states that they must make a minimum payment on December 31 of every year AND in addition they must use 1/2 of their free remaining cash flow toward that debt. So they have some spare cash flow even with the current mining plan, and in 2009 they will be producing MORE gold than was originally planned at a SMALLER price of $420/oz.

I have no doubt that NOW is the time to make major purchases of PM miners (while leaving a little cash to buy more if they drop another 10 – 20 percent). My only regret is that I am already deep in my margin and hence have to use the extra cash I borrowed very carefully – otherwise, I would have bought much more WGW than I did and also bought a lot of SLW and GG (I already have some a lot of both of them, especially SLW). I am placing a sell limit order at $1.02 for the WGW shares I purchased yesterday at $0.51, and I expect that limit to be hit in the next few weeks.

2nd_ave guessed it correctly – I will not kill myself if I lose all my money in the stock market. When my family immigrated to USA, we had no money and were starting from scratch. After finishing high school here, doing my undergraduate studies at MIT and doctorate studies at Stanford, I came out with 80K in debt. So I am used to having no money and only debt. Losing all my life savings would just put me back to square one, from which I will start again – no problems. Most of the people in this world can’t even dream of having free money to play in the stock market, so we should not forget that all our worries about stocks going down are very relative in the grand scheme of things. We will live our life anyway, with or without the extra money, and the quality of that life will depend on our internal attitude toward life rather than on what we have externally.

Chickenpookie,

its not my mojo. for those who don't know its a term used at casinos (especially blackjack) where you are hoping to change the momentum of the game against the house. When the dealer has to draw cards, players yell "MONKEY" hoping for face cards so the dealer busts and everyone at the table wins.

Fransix
Great, I was having the same prob w/OSX on my Powerbook. I use Firefox and it worked like a charm up until 3 months ago. Do you use RealPlayer for listening? I use it and recommend it, the Windows Media crap(Flip4Mac)is simply that crap. Before it crashes do you see blue lego boxes with ? in them?

Fransix - Which browser are you using, switch and try again? Update active-x, or other plug-ins? I had similar issues with my win'98 machine, new Vista machine with 3GB mmry runs great.

Chickenpookie, this is Mac specific, nothing to do with the browser or even the player and if Fransix gets back to me I can suggest a fix.

Chickenpookie BTW it worked on my Windows sytems as well, running XP Pro

bsi87

Time...yes. I plot the 5/10 EMA on the 15 minute chart, but stay mindfull of the 50/200.

yvrapx - I hope Don Cox isn't waiting for those items to materialize prior to switching to Bull...

"cloud computing"

- The growing adoption of cloud computing is creating opportunities for computer makers such as Dell Inc. (DELL), Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) and International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), all of which are developing products to build out the massive new infrastructure the technology requires.

- Investment in these data centers is expected to grow rapidly, potentially driving billions of dollars in new revenue to computer makers. Research group IDC predicts that spending on cloud computing infrastructure will triple by 2012 to $42 billion, representing about one-fourth of all IT spending that year. By 2013, cloud computing infrastructure could account for about one-third of all IT expenditures.

- The big computer makers are starting to flex their muscles after ceding the early lead to smaller companies, like Fremont, Calif.-based Rackable Systems Inc. (RACK) and Verari Systems Inc. of San Diego. Both were among the first to commercialize high-density server systems. Dell has emerged as a cutting-edge player in this market, a little more than one year after creating a unit specifically tasked with developing customized products and services for "hyper-scale" data center customers.

http://english.capital.gr/news.asp?id=606706

QT,

VMW and msft are forefront on the software side of it.

Chickenpookie
Have been following Coxe for over 10 years and what he is saying is it will be very rough out there until those indicators fall into line. That is the general, overall market. From listening to his calls he figures the USD rolls over and commodities will be less of a target and are coiled up like a spring at each advance by a parabolic USD. As an aside many criticize Don but he has been right more than he has been wrong and many of us who follow his thinking have made plenty of $ the years...those late to the game speculated and have lost big.

Chickenpookie given the Cara 100 participants fit very nicely with my long term call on commodities. Bill has shown me the wisdom of entering/adding to or exiting positions, to trade prices, to freely think of where to allocate/withdraw my capital.

USD index getting cracked here but gold is not reacting, at least not yet, this disconnect if it persists is not good. imho

if the initial move in stocks is up following the annoucement i will unload a partial position in the miners just to see what happens on a potential reversal.

I googled and found this on how to play FOMC announcement. What time is it? 2:15 EST today?

"When outcome is virtually assured--Buy the rumor, sell the news -- when the outcome of a Fed meeting is virtually guaranteed by all predictions, the result will usually be a reversal of the latest short-term trend once the announcement is made by the FOMC.

Day Trading-- Go against the knee-jerk for day trading, simply wait 3-4 minutes after the announcement (always shown on CNBC) and place your trade in the opposite direction that the market has moved in the past 3-4 minutes. Over 75% of the time, market knee-jerk reactions will reverse for the next 45-90 minutes.

Day trading the Fed when outcome is unknown-- Place bet and bail or double down? When the economic community is split over what the Fed`s move will be, simply place your trade in either direction before the announcement. If the market moves the way you want right after the announcement -- bail and take your profits. If market moves against your trade initially, double down and add to your position 3-4 minutes after the announcement.
http://tinyurl.com/38nnzj

ALOHA !!

Many times in my life, in the "real world" where I actually live, I am challenged by the nonsense of the "media world" and the so called vast knowledge of "experts"... I cannot tell you how many times I have heard the constant comparisons of what happened to Japan in the 1980s to what is happening now in America. There are similarities, but then there are also the "real world" realities. The "expert" economists will swear up and down that a stagnate economy caught in deflation will drive down consumer costs.

If we are facing similarities to what happened in Japan then you better be prepared to pay $7.09USD for a 6oz can of tuna or $19 to see a movie or $8.50 for a gallon milk or $13 for a six pack of Bud or $21 for a slice of pizza ... To rent an extremely small 3.3sq mt studio in Tokyo is around $150 per month! A 3bed, 2bath house on a 1/2 acre land? FORGET IT!!! You have to be the Emperor to afford that! What happened to the deflation? What happened was, the Japanese government tried like our government is now to print their way out of deflation only our government hasn't even begun to start printing yet! I am waiting to see the $10tril mouse clicks!

So what's going on in Japan? How can a stagnate economy support $6 cups of orange juice? Is the government price fixing via tariffs and excise taxes? Is the Japanese government subsidizing Japanese farmers? All that and more ... but mainly it was the PRINTING STUPID! So there in effect is the crux of the illusion. It is BIG GOVERNMENT and this is why our Founding Fathers wrote a Constitution to limit government and made no provisions at all for a US Federal Reserve, in order to avoid a Japan, yet US Voters seem to always want more government. Well more government is what we are getting even if it kills us! Once again this November(less than a week away)we will go to the polls and vote in yet even BIGGER government! Take you pick Obama or McCain ... it does not matter one bit they both embody BIG GOVERNMENT! After all that is all they have ever known ... If WEALTH=DEBT then indeed, as OPRAH always says, America is the wealthiest country on the face of the Earth!

ALL OUR BEST THINKING GOT US HERE ...

kaimu
Great commentary.

Re: Todd and Shark I went short CHB at $5, stopped out at $6. CHB now at $2. I could add dozens of similar trades. I could say early, late, stop too tight, risk management, etc., etc. Or , I could say that I had it exactly right, but wrong time frame. I could say if you had followed my advice, you'd be rich today, or I could say, sorry fellas, only lost a dollar. Point is, it's all in how its presented/slanted. I can be right and wrong on same trade, all in retrospect, of course.

Posted by: killer whale [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 29, 2008 1:38 PM [link]

david - the TED spread has actually been going up for 3 or 4 days now...LIBOR is baked into this...

FED Meeting Contest

In the past I have noticed that the fastest way for me to find out the results of a FED meeting is right here, posted almost instantly by Vadym. In fact one time it seemed he posted the result about 1 minute before the announcement. Non synchronized clocks I am sure. I find it interesting and educational that a master day trader like Vad can obtain that information and post it so quickly with those big fat thumbs of his. I would be curious to see if someone could post the result before him, those electrons have a long way to travel to western Canada, so someone must be able to beat him. :)

Guess one question I have is if Japan was the "carry trade" nation, and US becomes one, then where does the money go?

Who's betting on the Q's today? $33.20 or $31.48?

yvrapx - Thx, I think DC maybe called for Bull last week, pretty darn good timing...? I wasn't too enthused by my perception of no bear call a few months back (strictly my twisted perception). But I've only been listening 1/2 a year, not 10... hard for me to get a crystal clear perception.

Chickenpookie
The last call he made it clear he had dropped the ball on his call on the current bear. He has never had difficulty in coming clean which is why I respect him so much. He 'checks his ego in at the door' so to speak.

Fransix are you there?

Dumb computer question here. Is there a way I can keep this blog updating automatically or am I stuck repeatedly beating the F5 key?

JesseSLC

Yes, I've seen the quick posts here re: FOMC
Yet, the idea of someone like Vad stabbing a keyboard with thumbs doesn't sit well with me!

I'm sitting on my thumbs now, waiting, watching, letting a small day trade of UYG ride into the afternoon...

Ya

kp84

That was Vad's own description for his typing prowess.

Eoddiver,
install a free "fresher". Or you are stuck with F5.

Regarding natural resources and related stocks, if worldwide population continues to grow towards 9 Billion, does anyone think these stocks continue to stay at these levels? Now, if you are trying to trade these stocks on a daily basis, or pick the exact bottom, good luck. But, if you are picking up stocks for another leg up in commodities, you shoulc be okay in the long run. I am seeing natural resource prices below the marginal cost of production, which is clearly not sustainable. Many stocks are trading below their cash levels - that also doesn't seem likely to continue.

wow. its like the markets on pause

ALOHA !!

The US Peso is already a "carry" trade. I call it the "SCARY TRADE" instead!

I guess i will throw one in there for luck...

"MONKEY!"

MONKEY!!!

Fransix

Install RealPlayer http://www.real.com

After installing, quit all browsers and run Disk Utility and click on Repair Disk Permissions. Re open the browser and go to Coxe's conference call site and try it out.

This blog is not a popularity contest. Operating in the financial markets is a serious business.

It is not my intent to be a distraction on this board. The stamped postings previously mentioned were done only for something that Mr. Cara has espoused many times over. In fact, he has termed it his favorite expression, which is "proof of concept".

Now I may not be using it in the way that Mr. Cara or others would like to see, and they may not agree that what was posted even should be considered as proof of concept, but it is what it is.

The volatility and downward pressure that the markets have experienced is enough to make anyone irritable. So I'm not surprised that some are tired of my recent continual beating of the drum to "remain cautious." It does get old after awhile, especially for investment accounts that dwindle in size day by day.

We're in extraordinary times, with government officials having taken unprecedented actions, much of which could prove to have very negative repercussions down the road.

FWIW, it remains a time where it's probably OK to sit on one's hands, no matter how hard the urge to tap on the keyboard and enter trades.

take care all

thnx

krharrellnw,

"many stocks trading below cash levels"

Can you name a few for us?

It's not what their potential profit was, it's how much downside they have in debt exposure and counterparty exposure.... It's no longer a growth story in the stock markets, its a wealth preservation story.

Maybe the chapter turns in 1 min?

ToddinFL,

youre missing the point entirely if you believe people are speaking up about your post because we are peeved at our dwindling portfolio's.

GE just started a climb from negative territory.

ALOHA !!

As are all DEBT instruments ... the "carry trade" is subject to counterparty solvency ... Only one currency has no solvency issues!

FOMC CUTS RATES 50BPS TO 1.00% (AS EXPECTED);

[Bill Cara note:

It was only "expected" as of the morning when they put the word out into the marketplace, which I noted. Traders had been expecting -75 or -100bp.

There will likely be some selling here; next week after the election results are in and the ECB sets their rate, the Fed could come back with another -50bp cut.

But the rate is now back to 1.00%, so they have not much room to go. Bank of Japan realized that going to zero in past years didn't help.

Next up will be the Stimulus Package II after the election.]

Fed Cuts 50bps

Any good funeral stocks in the United States??

Bought Arbor memorial abo.a weeks back at $19 cdn
now its $23.01 cdn..

SV

yvrapx,

Re questions about MFC, there has been a sea change in the management culture of MFC in the past decade and now Mr Market is looking closely at the result. Back in the day, MFC might have been compared to its stodgy competitor, Power Corp ( PWF )as both had cash cows such as insurance and mutual fund originators that made for ever-increasing income and dividend payouts. Under Mr D'Allesandro things changed for MFC in a big way as they became an aggressive acquisitor in places where valuations are hard to determine. Buying a large life insurance operation in Japan offered great income but what about the high claims experience on overworked executives and those who chose suicide in a culture that sees this behavior as normal. Moving on to China, they became one of a very few foreign insurers allowed to participate in this market. With what's been happening with shoddy products, lack of safety concerns in food and other Chinese exports etc. you have to wonder about the quality of underwritings in China not to mention the hidden costs of participating in China. Yes, then there is the recent buyout of The Hartford Group of Connecticut ( home of the hedge fund industry ) and the possibility of hidden exposure to toxic derivative securities. Back home in Canada, MFC has the liability of paying up on all of the prior re-sets on market securities tied to many of their segregated products such as Income Plus. Now with all of this recent history would you rather be selling a speedy Lambo or the "environmentally friendly" Camry as offered by the Power Financial group where IGM has very low redemptions as we speak, and Great West Life has excellent underwriting experience while avoiding offering re-settable equity products? Power Corp companies have virtually exempted themselves from participating in the toxic securities that are putting competitors under because it went against their culture. What's your culture choice?

Fed cuts 0.50

Took you long enough, VAD!!!:)

My BA, which I bought too early, went green yesterday and appears to be holding today. Doing one's homework is helpful.
Best, All.

VOTE WAS UNANIMOUS, SLOW FOREIGN ECONOMIES HURTING ECONOMY, DOWNSIDE RISKS TO GROWTH REMAIN, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SLOWED 'MARKEDLY'
- Lowers discount rate 50 bps to 1.25%
- Notes slowdown due to consumer spending slowdown
- Remarks that its recent actions may have helped improve credit and growth, inflation may slow in upcoming quarters

GE can't seem to decide whether .5 is good or bad.

nemo... not me, Fed announcement was late... somewhat unusual

Looks like Vad is still the master. For an amatuer like me it is interesting to see how fast pro traders can obtain information and act on it. yvrapx was close with the same time stamp, but I bet Vad would have made a few more bucks in the trade. Thanks.

so they do as expected and indices turn negative?

TerryC
Thanks for all the points on MFC duly noted. I am very familiar w/Paul Desmarais group of Co's and they are an excellent franchise only lacking global reach. MFC is certainly a different animal since they demutualised years ago. It just seemed odd to me that SLF with all it's exposure to MFC in the US and bad paper that MFC is somehow clean in all of this. Again thanks for the points they are much appreciated.

SV:

Coincidentally, one good "death services" company is CSV.
Or HI (Hillenbrand)

Vad's got a neural implant. He just plugs a coax, cat 5 or optical in his...

How about we label our opinions as just that, or better still, accept what others say as just one person's view.

Some are into day trading and some are at the other extreme. If we just decide for ourselves which we are doing in each case, there is need to argue the "correct" action.

It would be a shame if this site were to deteriorate into an "I'm right/your wrong" ego trip. There are more than enough of those for anyone looking for an argument. (I must admit to having dropped a few sarcasm bombs on some just to see the reaction.)

I know I have a short fuse when certain judgmental words of personal nature are used. I will try to avoid replies to those in the future.

Anyone out there who wants to disagree with this is entitled to his own idiotic, stupid, unthinking, juvenile, opinion!

(Just kidding on the last part :-)

BC cut dividend from $0.60 to $0.5 today. Used to be 19% yield (?)

5% seems a bit more logical.

Watch for more dividends to get adjusted...

I think Fed wanted to cut 1.00 but Vad leaked info
and Fed change their mind and cut 0nly 0.50

Don't forget Grym, you're not paranoid, and anybody who thinks you are is out to get you!!:)

ALOHA !!

So its now hitting "basic cable"! WOW ... people would rather eat than watch TV!

READ ON:
Weak economy costs Comcast basic video subscribers
Wed Oct 29, 2008 1:34pm EDT

By Paul Thomasch

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Comcast Corp (CMCSA.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the largest U.S. cable service provider, on Wednesday reported a sharp fall in basic video subscribers, hurt by the weak economy, competition with phone companies, and hurricanes.

Shares of Comcast fell as much as 11 percent, even as the company said it would exceed its full-year free cash flow forecast as the slowdown in subscriber growth helped it trim capital expenditures.

"They were lackluster. Both in terms of customer and financial growth on most metrics, they were below our expectations," said Thomas Eagan, an analyst with Collins Stewart.

Comcast's basic video subscribers fell by 147,000 to 24.4 million in the third quarter -- a sharper decline than the year-ago period's 56,000 drop -- as the economy hurt business.

Competition from phone rivals including AT&T Inc (T.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Verizon Communications Inc (VZ.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) also hampered subscriptions, as did hurricanes, which accounted for 15,000 of the basic video losses in the quarter.

Chief Executive Brian Roberts said the issue was not the customers were dumping Comcast's service. Rather, with the poor economy and housing slowdown, new customers were tougher to find.(more)

GE decided it didn't like the rate cut.

yvrapx - Coxe: where can one receive his wisdom on Wednesdays? I just know about his Friday webcast. Thnx in advance.

It's okay to do your homework, select stocks to go long or short, use the correct position size, enter at the proper price, and put on sell stops.

Jesse... actually I hit accidentally Preview button instead of imeediate Post, so it wasted a bit of time... but now that I had a chance to scroll up a bit I see you guys had fun at my expense, LOL

JPM downgrades JNJ to neutral...can't seem to catch a break in the core holdings.

[Bill Cara note:

I have a couple meetings to leave here soon for. May return after 6pm.]

TerryC Thanks for post on Manu. Stock started falling as soon as I read. Out at $26 for now

Thanks RDR

SV

ALOHA !!

Does anyone here really think cutting the Fed Funds 50 basis points to 1% will restart the GIANT HOUSING BOOM? People in the unemployment lines could care less about 1%!

If the US FED really wanted to jump start spending then they should force credit card companies to cut their rates to 1%! If you want to get funds to the masses then give us a credit card stimulus package instead a US BANK BAILOUT!!

Isn't it obvious yet where our elected officials allegiance lies? Its not the US FLAG!

IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T ...

"[Bill Cara note:

I have a couple meetings to leave here soon for. May return after 6pm."

O.K. Yoda...

[Bill Cara note:

I'm no Jedi Master... just busy. When I get so busy, I get stressed. Anyway I just asked sharkie if he wants to return, and I don't think ToddinFL is going anywhere.]

Took some of my spare cash and added to my unintentional long term investment in ValGold.

Very long at average of 6 cents per share.

Dell hit with gender suit by top female execs. news google 1 hr ago

I think we close nice and GREEN again...feels like a shakeout

Kaimu:

Naahhhh, cutting credit card rates is too obvious.

The Fed is undershooting the 2yr rate as it stands:

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

But holy moly look at the ~200bps decline in treasury yields in the Eurozone:

http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/yc/html/index.en.html

SLW still has bidders. even with rsi and stoch pinned to oversold the pps drop hasnt been too crazy yet.

my trigger is on the sell button though

Seems to me this 0.50 rate cut was largely a symbolic move.....the REAL rate cut happened earlier this week when banks actually started loaning out the FED bailout money (not hoarding it) and unlocked the credit markets.

If fixing the price of gold weren't such an object for ego gratification by central planners, you could give the commercial banks a leg up by allowing the price of gold to float against the currency markets, as its obvious political interests will cut off any speculation in the currencies.

now the wait for Japan to cut.

"Monkey!"

ALOHA !!

Can anyone explain where it says that banks can borrow at the Fed Rate but the US citizens who just saved the banks are stuck with 16% credit card rates? Who made that rule?

Why are we saying 'monkey?' Monkey's uncle?

http://tinyurl.com/5w6n7k

"US govt may announce anti-foreclosure plan Thursday "

Anyone else see this? is there any truth to this report?

ALOHA !!

I guess the DOW is now selling the news of the rate cut! BUY THE RUMOR SELL THE NEWS!

fransix,

its a term used at casinos (especially blackjack) where you are hoping to change the momentum of the game against the house. When the dealer has to draw cards, players yell "MONKEY" hoping for face cards so the dealer busts and everyone at the table wins.

if the community objects i can stop. no biggie. just trying to bring everyone here luck.

Congrats to LVS holders.

Kaimu - WOW, a financial Haiku ....

"Can anyone explain where it says that banks can borrow at the Fed Rate but the US citizens who just saved the banks are stuck with 16% credit card rates? Who made that rule?"

PERFECT! how that observations cuts through the crap, right to the chase !!!!

robbie fields: didn't VALgold just quit Guyana? No successes in VZ as far as I know. What's to invest in? Pls. let me know. I have a small position, but am not adding.

Jock
Am only aware of Don's Friday Instituional calls and i called some buddy's at Nesbitt Burns to confirm. He does on occasion do calls for the Nesbitt Burns PCG when warranted, like the ones he did in September. If I hear of anything will pass on.

Check this out; five years TIPS yield is greater than the 5 year Treasury yield:

http://tinyurl.com/6xh8xu (Jesse's Cafe Americain)

Also, Teck is trading at 0.60 of book value. That is a Graham value number IMO. Goldcorp is trading slightly less than book. SLW is trading at 0.80 to book.

"MONKEY"

Hopped on the QLD train at 33.97. It moved so quick through there that I was able to put a sell stop at 34 if it doesn't work out.

wow. Looks like CNR is taking off along with the Siberian Express.

doh.

Eoddiver, re. getting all messages. If you can run Skype, http://nexalogic.com./skype.html will deliver all messages to you automatically, and does not overload the server with repeated refreshes. Nice crowd, and we even beat Vad by about 20 secs :-)

QLD: out at 34.73 (trailing stop hit)

"MONKEY!" for the close

nice of Bill to ask shark if he wants to come back. Very kind Bill, makes me think even better of you.

To move in or not to move in. A million dollar question!

2nd up day in a row. Not bad at all!

quick maint question. my skype id is not same as typepad. how do i chat on the skype platform?

yvrapx - thnx.

Bill,

I suppose being "Cast Adrift" is another concept like anchoring - i.e. being without one is to possibly be worse off than anchored in a false belief. BCE is a good example of a stock that is Cast Adrift by the media. The reason is simple - BCE IS the media in Canada. Those who might consider offending Ma Bell know it means a certain trip to the woodshed! The facts remain- as I have repeatedly posted - that the BCE leveraged buyout deal was brought to life by the parachuting insiders of BCE who know a failing business model when they see it, and some financiers with credentials and capacity that should now be put into serious question. We simply don't read much about this, do we? Is there anyone other than the writer of those bland "the deal is on" announcements who thinks this deal is going to close? Given a $10 haircut, I MIGHT take a look at BCE but with a failed deal would the walk-away fee and missed dividends be added to any significant BCE shareholder value?

NYUgrad re: skype

Don't need same id.

You have to call (click) Si02 (AKA: Nexalogic). He'll let you into the room. He's out now attending a meeting for a few hrs. You may have to await his return.

BA is having a good day. I expected this spike, if only I had traded it...
Machinists In Tentative Deal With The Boeing Company
October 28, 2008
The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) announced that it reached a tentative agreement
(msn money central)

if we close strong i will keep my SLW open and put in a stop price on my notepad. no reason to show my cards.

this rally may not be related to the cut in U.S, but reflect what will happen tomorrow overseas.

dont want to miss a potential gap up tomorrow.

Good luck all!

"MONKEY" +300 DOW, for the last 10 minutes!

I'm sorry, but anyone else notice the 400 points sell-off in the last 10 min?

Man, what just happened to the Dow?!?

We noticed. I was watching the VIX climb as the DOW went up.

no mojo today

What? Closed in negative territpry.

I think they noticed it Fazeli, but were too busy hitting the sell button to lock in their intraday gains

At one point both TED and the VIX were up over 5%

On days like today, all I can say is find the worst stocks out there, in the worst businesses, and short them down :) We've had 40% moves in some POS companies.

Re: Play by Play

Okay, so maybe I'm in the ring, after all. (;

Chickenpookie, Fazelli - It was really the replay that I was talking about. Even then, it is not an issue if the person comes across as caring about audience.

I have no problem with posting specific trades. 2nd_ave is famous for them. These posts come across as contributions and are easily skipped for those who would want to.

Similarly, I see nothing wrong with Vinod's occasional reports on his status. I find that there is a sense of humility about them and a spirit of sharing.

And, finally, there is nothing wrong with competing per se. As with most things, it is primarily about how we do it--whether we are encouraging the group or pushing the others down.

My last post was an after-thought about how we could all play better; but obviously, it was not well-articulated. As someone else commented, the way that these posts are received is influenced heavily by the presentation. In this case, mine may have been off.

that is...40% moves upwards in 48hrs...

Sorry guys, I was being a bit facetious! No doubt everyone here noticed that 400 point drop. It was just so silent on the board, I figured I'd drop that comment in!

The rush of sales was so large that IB's index reading stopped updating in real-time.

KO plunged 4% in the last 8 min!
There was a definite rush for the exits after a ~14% 2-day gain! people don't seem to believe that we've seen the bottom even in the near term. As Bill alluded earlier, the 50bp cut wasn't so well received.

on td ameritrade i see 30,000 shares went thru for slw at $3.59 at 4:09:20 pm

sometimes these records are not real or just consolidation with other trades during the day. anyone else see this?

Drat. I'm still a bear. And I was SO ready to transmorgrify.

Good mojo for me at least today. Good moves on the likes of NAK,LMC,UUU,GRG,URG, WUC etc.-days like this despite the late spike down reinforce the value of Bill & Co. here. Thanks All

northvan,

I agree with you on "presentation". Your point is well noted. There's a lot to learn and even enjoy with respect to the play-by-play of guys like 2nd_ave, or vinod's updates. It's just a matter of having everyone who wishes to participate do it with humility and respectfulness rather than boastfulness or narcissism.

After being beaten into the nether-world DMLP just might hit 25 in Nov., it closed at 21.76

the tired daytrader - SSO? SDS? no,BOTH ...

Hopping in the last hour from SSO (double SPX) to SDS (double inverse SPX) and back, and forth ...

It's enough to give you mental whiplash !

BTW, I'm not alone. SSO traded 106M shares; SDS 65M.

When this craziness ebbs, I can go back to holding the miners ! LOL

NYUgrad

See it on Schwab also. There's another one, 17,000 @ 16:11, price 3.4201.

Looks like consolidation on the 17K move for sure; but if more appear later in the AH, could be something.

VIX - per my long-term VIX chart, we're still in volatility only ever seen from October '87 through January '88.

SDS - double inverse S&P500 - jumped 9.5% in the last 10 minutes of trading today ! Fasten your seatbelt ...

tsx comp....up 350 points ..WOW

eca......up $ 3.70 CDN
su.......up $ 2.61 CDN
cnq......up $ 6.90 CDN
cos.un...up $ 2.81 CDN
rim....DOWN $ 2.47 CDN
agu......up $ 4.15 CDN
pot......up $ 8.08 CDN

SV

"More so, that day-trading mindset is required today, unfortunately." Bill Cara

CAD$ hit .8239 intraday, driving the TSX. Looking like timberrrrrrrrr USD on it's way down.

SDS...great cynics think alike Jock? Was in and out all day along with GS.
SDS came back a bit AH, but closing price action is not a good sign for the broader mkt tomorrow.
Some profit taking presently by those not wanting to hold overnight. I think we still see a negative bias (hard to settle the herd once they have adrenaline in their systems), even if we are forming a bottom.

Oil... UP $5.38 also drove the TSX up

sv

How in God's name do you guys trade this craziness? At 3:50 the Dow was 9330, 5 minutes later it is 8930. 400 points in 5 minutes!! If our exchanges can handle that kind of volume in such a short time, they are clearly the best in the world.

...federal funds rate now at 1%, ... The last time the rate was that low was in the aftermath of the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s; the Fed's target rate hasn't been lower than 1 percent since the 1950s."
(from Washington Post article)

I must say that I'm a bit surprised to see ATVI and ERTS up so much over the past couple of days (from a fundamental standpoint) while DELL and INTC basically dove today.

Video games are purely a discretionary expenditure no?

ERTS (+23.1% in 2 days): Profit Margin of -10.2%, 2.7B in cash, Book value / share of 13.6, with a forward PE of 13, EPS of -1.32

ATVI (+15.4% in 2 days): Profit Margin of 13.1%, 47.4M in cash (nothing), Book value / share of next to zero, trailing PE of 20.3, and EPS of 0.59

Neither company seems to have much debt. Comparing these to:

INTC (+6.5% in 2 days): Profit Margin of 18.3%, 12.2B in cash, Book value / share of 6.9, forward PE of 11.4, and EPS of 1.25

DELL (+4.5% in 2 days): Profit Margin of 4.4%, 9B in cash, Book value / share of 1.4, trailing PE of 9.1, and EPS of 1.34

I realize DELL has very low margins and a very low book value, but I still find it odd that ATVI moves 15% and DELL 4.5% The same comparison can be made between INTC and ERTS no?

Folks, I think the fundamentals have aligned sufficiently to warrant scaling into quality companies. If you really want to buy, then buy only quality equities on pullbacks (I'm thinking stink bids) and keep in mind you could get a better price tomorrow. Don't be afraid to take profits, the DOW isn't going straight to 14k. Sell those 250pt days, which will eventually be 150pt days, 100pt days, 50pt days etc...

Just my opinion, do your own homework and don't start crying if things don't work out (it's okay to pout a little though). Remember, interventionists always maintain the upper hand, and the world economy isn't going down the commode (yet).

shark_attack - It would be nice to hear from you... At least tell us how your mom's doing.

Fazeli - "I realize DELL has very low margins and a very low book value, but I still find it odd that ATVI moves 15% and DELL 4.5% The same comparison can be made between INTC and ERTS no?"

I noticed some that didn't participate yesterday then outperformed today. Very fast market doesn't seem to produce equal gains, I'm guessing. Different kind of higher risk buyers looking for a fast buck (ATVI) vs more disciplined conservative 401k types (DELL)?

I'd love to find a larger (FREE) RSI scanning site.

I'm using this one for now.

http://rsi-trader.blogspot.com/

RE:"Craziness"

I like volatility.

But one has to:
1)play small ball (re:"Moneyball"), smaller positions, take profits more quickly

2)don't crowd your position by moving stops up too tightly but move them as possible so if ur position is stopped out, u're out for a small loss.

ChicagoMark - dow down 400 pts in 5 mins.

On my screen looks like it took 11 minutes = only half as crazy as you thought! - LOL

And yes, America builds the best mechanisms for implementing craziness of ANYONE. We're number 1.

Having constructed and lived with a "strategic doctrine" of MAD = Mutually Assured Distruction for 60 years, the market systems pale in comparison.

Double strategic craziness: the US gov't harps on the (someday, maybe) threat from Iran, yet never mentions that Russian ICBMs and nuclear-armed bombers are still aimed at us, and ours at them.

Does this "perspective" help calm your nerves? - LOL

Picks results

KNDL +10.4%
CGX -6.6%
CVD +6.7%
LAMR +16.%
MEOH +3.3%

Russell 2000 +1.7%
SPX -1.1%
DJIA -.8%

http://tiny.cc/pEs0G

Barron's TA guy's take.

With Tbar out of the running, there's nobody to report on the advances in companies like YRI.TO, IMG.TO, CG.TO, etc.

Thought I would throw in my two cents (because it is all I have left...JK). Anyway, I seem to remember Bill's September call for the cycle turn to include an outline of a few choices one might want to make, with the more aggressive ideas including hedging strategies that are way over my head and then finishing with the "wait for confirmation" approach that I embraced. I don't have the experience or knowhow to option hedge my risk like Bill and some others here can do, so i choose to take the more boring "pass on the intitial 40% move while waiting for confirmation" approach.

With the numerous, and at times very convincing, head fakes the manipulators have thrown over the past couple weeks, I have found Todd's cautious reminders to be a very calming influence, which can literally be gold in times like these.

Chris

Gold companies will pay for earnings misses
Posted: October 29, 2008, 1:01 PM by Peter Koven

The third quarter earnings season kicks off Wednesday for large-cap gold companies, and Credit Suisse analyst Anita Soni suggests the stocks are now "poised to disappoint" in a difficult market environment.

"We expect earnings, production or cost misses will be viewed unforgivingly in the current environment of extreme aversion to operational risk," she wrote in a note to clients.

Unfortunately, she expects most of the companies she covers will report disappointing earnings. One reason is that base metal byproducts are no longer the gift that they used to be.

http://tinyurl.com/55b45v

And, the reply:

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSN2949999320081029?rpc=401&

SEC's Crisis of Convienience. In the last decade the SEC has failed to find a way to stop the ever increasing levels of failures to deliver in the system. The SEC tried everything to reduce these fails without causing harm to those that initiated them. Then came this crisis and suddenly trades begin to settle on time. It is easy now as every FTD will be bought in at a lower value and thus at a profit. In the past many FTD's were under water and thus left alone awaiting a profit point to close.

Doesn't this look like a crisis of convienience for a roiling SEC?

Take a look at this.

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/464

junior gold producers

FWIW.....collective upward movement amongst junior/mid-tier gold producers I follow was impressive today.

Here is a list I've accumulated over a couple years......

Below 50k oz production

AMC.TO ANX.TO CSG.V EXM.V FML.AX GMA.L GOZ.V MTO.V MUN.AX NGG.V PMU.TO RCT.V SAM.TO SGR.V SIM.TO SLR.AX TRY.AX

50k oz to 100k oz

AVO.AX CGLD.OB CRU.TO EET.TO GBG.TO LMA.TO MAI.TO MDL.AX MIRL.L NGL.L ORV.TO VGM.L WDO.TO

100k oz+
AGI.TO ARZ.TO AVM.L GRS HRG.TO IAG JAG.TO JIN.TO KCN.AX MDN.TO MFN NGD NXG OGC.AX RBI.TO SGX.AX SMF.TO WGI.TO

SOme big daily moves today, but for most of them a 20% moves is little in comparison to how far they have fallen over the last few years.

It might be a good time to identify some of the higher quality names.

I'd also welcome additions to the list and thoughts/ comments on any of these names.....some are very thinly followed so I feel there is little available information.....teamwork could help that

Chris - I made my decision to buy and hold when the DOW was 10.8k, will probably start trading soon though... Anyway, these prices are low so why not just scale in to maybe 30-40% and hold? Sell a rally or two if you want some profit... rinse and repeat.

I plan to sell a monster rally when/if we approach my original entry point and re-buy on a pullback to pay myself for time, effort, and frustration of not waiting long enough. Thankfully I bought GG at what I knew/thought was a ridiculous price ($20.19), which I will also play in a similar way on the way back up but will begin by waiting to take profit first, most likely.

There are so many ways to trade, IMO it's best to pick your poison and just do it... Holding wouldn't be a bad idea as long as it's not a 100% position just in case another buying opportunity arises.

What could go wrong?

Good morning from down under. While you are now enjoying your chardonnay we're having our breakfast. It's interesting to get up in the morning and read the stream of posting over your trading day. Every blog has it's own culture and I must say this one is particularly civil even when posters are stressed. I recently read a short book called The Four Agreements by Don Miguel Ruiz, an interesting take on how to conduct oneself. The four agreements are:

* Be impeccable with your word (say what you mean)
* Don't take anything personally
* Don't make assumptions (always ask for meaning)
* Always do your best

Perhaps these are values worth considering when we blog. All the best to everyone, all the bears, the bulls and the rest of us who are range bound.

[Bill Cara note:

Thank you, seadog. I hope ToddinFL and sharkie respond. This is a good-hearted community, and we'll do well working together applying the values you ascribe to here.]

CP-Thanks for the suggestion. I hadn't thought about scaling in...not sure why since it is a pretty common theme here. As a day trader my standard time frame and approach is 100% for about 1-10 minutes...guerilla trading. And with the insane volitility the last three weeks, the reasonable stop I would have to place for a 100% trade would create unacceptable losses should things go wrong. 30-40% however loosens that up quite a bit. Thanks for the suggestion.

Chris

Re Fazeli and CP: DELL

I have been holding DELL and watching the stock’s weakness everyday. I believe the thing holding it back is fear due to uncertainty. DELL warned about 3rd quarter late September, and stock was hammered since. It came out saying it is still ahead of industry just last week, but didn’t give anything in detail.

Compared to NOK, who warned about 3rd quarter at pretty much the same time, the stock was hammered the same as DELL until after the quarterly report last week, because analysts saw its gross margin held well, despite of loss of revenue, market share, and net profits. It even got an upgrade to buy today!

DELL’s next earnings call is mid November. The stock may remain relatively weak until then. If I have learned anything in October, it is that uncertainty in bear market probably is the biggest stock killer.

Fazeli,
Fast Money says a comment by GE's Jeffrey Imelt in Spain was misinterpreted, causing Ge to lead the DOW down. Talk about a shakey market!

Nemo,

This is of course why I use an alias. (Confession: grym is not my real name.)

I really appreciate this site. Bill's insights and stock offerings are broad enough for a wide range of trading/investment goals. Also I appreciate so much of the commentary by the community — including yours.

It is encouraging to read genuinely caring comments when others are facing disappointments or sad life experiences. Too much of the daily 24/7 stuff which passes for news is downgrading and disparaging of others, or equally bad excusing bad or distasteful behavior.

An hour ago I read an article in The Week Magazine, "Why we hate ourselves," which refers to the overload of selfishness and just plain bad manners we encounter all around us.

Not many blogs are as well behaved as this one.

Investing note: I've decided to follow the advice of Will Rogers from here on—

"Only buy stocks which go up. If they don't go up, don't buy them."

Kaimu,

The upside of the poor economy is perhaps we will reconsider what things are really important in life. I just looked at the TV guide and am wondering why I'm subscribing to cable. The news is slanted, economic reporting is mostly infomercial, the History Channel is all Monster Quest and the movies are in perpetual rerun.

I think most have learned something from this epic toxic fraud... Lesson One: Trustworthiness is extremely important. I say most, but a couple still need convincing. Do Paulson and Bernanke expect us to trust them if the bankers pay out those bonuses?

Another suggestion: Rather than push for people to spend more by easing credit, let's try encouraging saving by allowing more ROTH contributions.

“And yes, America builds the best mechanisms for implementing craziness of ANYONE. We're number 1.”

Jock not all of us but they are present incompetence people with greed
Greed is o.k. if it is done by competence people.

Also many posters have mention about TA (technical analysis)
I think it is Voodoo analysis. Sharp down turn made big hole through their TA.
Some web site and individual wants to sell you their TA to make money, they wants to sell you book about TA to make money. If TA is that good why don’t they use them self and make money in market? Whole TA is bull shit

CP,

I think you are right about good buys, but I will wait to see a retest of the recent low with my shopping list in hand. Then grab my next 1/4 purchase.

Grym,

I submit that the only viable reason to subscribe to cable is.... SPORTS! And I wish it werent so, cause I'd cancel that sucker in a minute otherwise.

SMiles,

I noticed WHR lowered estimates...could this cause it to fall on heavy volume?

MtnGntx:

Funny...I overhead a South Carolinian in a bar once say (in a serious southern drawl, "If it weren't for wrasslin' and bass fishin' I wouldn't own a tee veeee!"

I am sitting at my desk 10 stories up in a research tower, looking due West at the buildings of Denver some 6 miles away...and beyond those, at the start of the Rocky Mountains. The sun just went down over the horizon of the mountains leaving a brilliant yellow and orange glow against a cloudlesss sky.

Absolutely beeeeaaauuuuutiful.

Just thought I'd share.

Good morning to you guys on the other side of the planet and good trading.

Seadog - two things

My favorite T-shirt has a seadog on it front and back (a Dalmation with a bandana, a cigar, a peg-leg and a veterinarians warning label) which I procured a few years ago in Bill's stomping grounds - Bahamas.

Secondly, one of my top bosses fairly recently turned me onto the 4 agreements. I think he did it because he knows we both try to conduct ourselves similarly. I concur with it completely and it's an excellent way to compass a team going with good moral steam regardless of what pitfalls await us. Excellent recomendation. The community here seems to conduct themselves similarly as well.

Nemo,

He was lying... if he werent, he'd have mentioned the most important sport of all in the South... Football.

Born and reared down thar, and I know what Ima talkin bout.

I'm starting to worry about the 4th quarter earnings reports that will come out. These are going to be miserable as h$ll, aren't they? One would think that an enlightened market would have priced them in already but haven't we all been amazed by how markets have been reacting to the reduced earning's reports of the third quarter - squashing equities that came in very near, already-reduced, estimates? More fuel for the "choppy sideways action-theory" for markets going forward.

Thanks for sharing that, MtnGntx. Sounds wonderful!

northvan - "Okay, so maybe I'm in the ring, after all."

Not in my book, I like to hear contrary opinions brought out in the open where they can be discussed. As far as I'm concerned, there really is no such thing as a stupid question or statement as long as it's presented in earnest as opposed to a belligerent manner. Provoke thought, feel free...

Grym - I forgive you for your desire to buy low instead of high, like I did...

Vinod: Re TP: As a scalp/day trader of AAPL of nearly four years, I can say that TP has been, for me, an exceptionally useful tool. The price movement of that stock is heavily manipulated and knowing the volitile TP points (new highs, new lows, support/resistance, trendlines, etc.) and seeing how the manipulators maneuver the price around those points and then watching the tape to see what reaction they are getting, can be very helpful in determining the game they are playing at that particular moment, price sequence, or day.

I'm not really familiar with the longer time frames but thought I would share what i see intraday. Take care.

Chris

blogglob,

WHR credit spreads increased.

"WHR - Home appliances maker Whirlpool Corp widened after it posted lower quarterly profits and cut its full-year forecasts. It now expects profit to be in the range of $5.75-$6 a share, down from its previous forecast of $7-$7.50. Worryingly, free cash flow will now be in the range of nought to $50 million, comparing unfavourably with the previous prediction of $550 million. The US consumer is in a period of retrenchment - yesterday's consumer confidence figures were the worst on record - and there is little reason for near-term optimism."

http://tinyurl.com/4rtzgb

23% for protection on Venezuelan bonds. 27% for Ukraine. (Potential for default)

Canada has the lowest in the G7.

Red sky at night, sailors delight. Red sky in morn'in, sailors warn'in.

TA - I can see the validity in a steady state sense but, it can't forecast market response to external disturbance. Anybody here using Fractal Analytics?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal_Analytics

vanillabean-

Menlo Park late sixties-> Oak Grove, Ravenswood, Valparaiso, Santa Cruz Avenue...Encinal, Menlo-Atherton (Ben Parks had just started coaching when I left, along with race riots with kids bused in from EPA)...Dad would walk or bike to SRI...my first girlfriend lived on Glenwood, and we used to make out (what do they call it now) under the trees in Lindenwood...Chuck Thompson's Swim School (is that still there)...Papa Mama Baby Burgers...the Guild...In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida, Spoonful (the Cream song, not the Lovin'..)...doobies (not the Brothers..)...Saturday Be-Ins at the park across El Camino from the Stanford Shopping Center..I cannot tell you how upset I was when my Dad moved us to the Midwest in the summer of my 16th year...the few times I've taken my family there for lunch or shopping-> there's no way they would understand...

WHR 7 day RSI is 12.29.

When it pukes up on itself, RSI <10, it MIGHT be an interesting speculation. But the Max pain calculation site is down (down all day) so I'm somewhat less inclined to take it on.

re: Earnings estimates.

The ANALsyts will cut estimates until WHR and other companies can beat them, setting the stage for a rally.

MtnGntx,

Went to Colorado a couple of months ago. Outskirts of Denver have some incredible scenery.

I was lucky enough to get out just as the DNC started. Just "missed" meeting Jack Weil unfortunately...

http://tinyurl.com/65gfh2

Was amazed at the hype about drawing oil out of the mountains. Sounds about a hundred times harder than mining tar sands (not even possible for at least another 10-15 years), and probably just as costly for the environment.

"With Tbar out of the running,.." Has that been verified? He's a self-proclaimed hard-head, guys like that are hard to take out...

is anyone really surprised they sold the DJIA off 400 points at the close? if i had bought the market tuesday morning, i would have sold at today's high for a 17% gain...

Getting rid of hedges, suggestions from Ambac about TARP.

"The program should not guarantee securities if a holder has purchased a security and a credit default swap (CDS) on the same security unless the holder unwinds the hedge and any benefits of the hedge contract are applied to reduce the government’s risk. "

http://tinyurl.com/5vqwcj

Somebody tried to sneak a high bid in this afternoon in ABK.

http://tinyurl.com/628yhr

2nd - yea, exactly why if I could buy now, I would.

(see, confusion is still possible without resorting double-negatives)

Hey Chickenpookie and Everyone,

I was tied up tonight in a government communications class, delaying my saying howdy to you.

Mom had what they describe as a pretty average stroke. She's still "herself" (I've been told people often are not), still recognizes me, her memory's not too bad and her speech is ok but her vocabulary is labored and her walking, never terriffic, is a bit worse. She's in rehab after almost a week in acute care. We think she'll be there awhile longer. Thank you for asking. I have missed talking with you.

I did pretty well on a Silver Wheaton purchase and sale this morning, and then, to ruin things I bought some Yamana, not on it's scary post-cut drop (the right time to buy today) but rather, much later during a now discredited "breakout", paying one of the highest prices of the day and taking a loss of sufficient size to buy lunch for both of us at any of the country's finest restaurants.

[Bill Cara note:

Sharkie, glad to see you back. Good luck to your Mom. My Dad had a series of strokes that ultimately did him in. The docs told me that the first six months is crucial that there is no set-back. My Dad improved a lot and then sank back. If that happens to you, my prayers are with you. Life can be a tough deal. That's when you realize that having friends is what gets you through it is so important. I think you'll be ok here. You have lots of support here.]

F6
Your 11:30ish comment on Canadians mortgaging with derivatives puzzled me? Take a look at the CDS commentary posted by wavesmash above. Canada had the best. What is your source of reference?

RSI's broken. :)

Crossed 30 list from above link has more than 200 symbols from today!

Somebody's gotta be gaming this indicator.

Anybody pick up Cameco in the $13s yesterday? Wheee!

David- i don't come across that many people with your attitude, which is why i'm betting on you...i'm not (necessarily) betting on you to be right, i'm betting that you will handle either outcome with the right attitude...

could anyone hazard to guess price targets for GG, ABX, SLW by April 2009? thanks.

Thank you SeaDog - 7:08 post and FranSix - for your 6:32/34 posts and BillySundance for your 6:43 post. I found them particularly helpful. If I thanked everyone I want to, I would run out of space.

Si02, others with interest in BZ companies

Argentine Pension Seizure Spurs Brazil Stock Sale

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- "Argentina's planned nationalization of its retirement system will trigger a fire sale of Brazilian stocks this week as private pension funds are forced to shed foreign holdings."

***********

seadog--thanks for the info on Aussie miner(s) the other night.

http://tinyurl.com/6ckeav

Be cautious sharkie, there's still piranna's out in the sea. hmm.. Yamana? well, okay I guess...

Glad just a "mild" stroke, give her a hug for us we'll be thinking of her.

Good night all!

Hey Sharky-boy:

Glad mum's doin' o.k. With a little luck, she'll get something back.

Clarification: Link in prior post is to Bloomberg article.

*******
shark--glad to hear your mother still retains her memory and other skills. Rehab usually takes awhile, but is well worth the effort. Good luck.

Opinions on why the TED and VIX are so high? It seems like the VIX is telling us many bets exist for another big down draft. So, are they good bets?

Fazelli: "I must say that I'm a bit surprised to see ATVI and ERTS up so much over the past couple of days (from a fundamental standpoint) while DELL and INTC basically dove today."

ATVI was smacked down hard by 10% on monday so it just regained some of its losses. Over the last 5 days they're pretty much the same. With volume on INTC being so much higher I would expect ATVI's price ot be much more erratic anyway.

It should be remarked that none of ATVI's metrics reflect the number from the Blizzard merger, so it's somewhat up in the air as to what the true P/E, margins, etc. are. In addition, AVTI has had major product releases in teh last few weeks which should show up for Q4 next quarter.

So other than the fact that they're both tech stocks, I don't exactly follow why one would think ATVI and INTC should track each other.

2nd,

I live right on oak grove avenue...!

In the last 60s I was a 5th grader in Alabama dreaming of going to CA with flowers in my hair. You were living my dream ....in a gadda da vida on the street where I live now. Interesting.

By the way, I didnt' get to CA until the 80's but the month after I graduated from college I took the next plane out.

so what are you buying / selling tomorrow? I am hoping my QLD will keep going up - very happy with my SLW buy from yesterday, thanks to bill.

onlineaces - The best I can do is point you at FranSix 6:32/34 posts. I own DGP, GG, SLW, AUY, WGW and others. No price target other than higer than my purchase price. I expect inflation eventually, more bear mkt, but believe we are in a deflationary cycle and don't know when inflation will start. I'm waiting for the US$ to turn down or POG to turn up in foreign currency.

Congratulations Phillies

1bullseye,

Something about buying up to $25 billion in Mortage Backed Securities ($5b currently) and the abcp crisis that keeps dragging on is probably hurting Canada's image a bit....

http://tinyurl.com/5fuf3p

but that somebody liked loonies today. Maybe because they look like gold.

As Bill said "Most people haven't a clue how corrupt business is. They live in a dream world thinking the media must be right. "

That about sums it up for the validity of CDS spreads, issuer ratings, value at risk, mark to market/mark to model, etc. etc.

All are just tools used to control interests. If you get a D in class, sometimes it may be just your relationship with your teacher and not your academic prowess.

Ditto ratings agencies.

Ratings affect CDS spreads.

This was written in 2006.

http://tinyurl.com/6y7lga

"Bear, Stearns & Co (NYSE:BSC), for example, noted after upgrading F: "We believe most of the good news is behind GM but ahead of Ford. At the margin, we're buyers of Ford's on-the-come restructuring news and sellers of GM's sales-dependent recovering, consistent with our thesis that the way to make money on the Detroit Big Three is to trade around turnarounds."

The irony is that the bond and credit markets, blinded by credit risk models which employ stock prices to assess default probability or "P(D)", still do not recognize just how serious the financial situation facing F has become -- and just how little time remains for F to avoid bankruptcy if monthly sales results continue to crater -- with or without Bill Ford behind the wheel. As we noted in Barron's last year, "dependence on price-based risk models contaminates every aspect of modern finance."

Bear who? lol.

Ford seems to still be here.

Speaking of fighting corruption and unsafe vehicles, anybody voting for Ralph Nader?

http://tinyurl.com/5s23rs

He should reprint his book "Unsafe at any speed" to focus on the current financial crisis.

http://tinyurl.com/55xks3

vanillabean- i'm not buying or selling anything...my port hit its YTD peak september 26th...then i went completely long over the next few days...the rest is history-> when the DJIA hits 10800 or so (CP and I must have been on the same wavelength), i'll be back to the high of the year...just 2000 points to go..

wavesmash - Ralph nader is a true Patriot. he fought for the citizens and won. But a vote for Ralph is just a protest statement. Ilike Ron paul, but he is in the same boat as Ralph.

Joe the Plumber Endorses Ron Paul http://tinyurl.com/6es32x

http://www.palinaspresident.us/

drill baby drill!

2nd,

Yeah, I am in the same kind of boat. Rimm at 74 seemed so long ago... but it really was only a couple of weeks ago.. I am trying to stay positive and keep things in perspective even through my portfolio is starting to look like penny stocks. lol.

My worse move? Buying BTU after talking head "cramer" said to buy it. It dropped 35 points after his tip. live and learn. I ate the banana on that one. only me to blaim.

Wavesmash - They need the same di-o-ramma they have for Palin, only with each of the candidates taking center stage.

2nd
On September 26 oex was 565
Today it is 449
If I buy January call on oex around strike price of 510 will give me a good return.
I am looking for it, if I can get it at good premium

vanillabean - You have lots of company. I bought PM fund shares back in late 2007, early 2008. I was worried about the lack of FDIC insurance on my money market accounts. Well that was a big mistake...so I wait.

not too worried-> i can sense the sentiment shift, won't be long before bullish is 'in' again...

"As many as 30 transit agencies are at risk of default or collapse due to financing deals with certain banks, Rep. James Oberstar, a Minnesota Democrat, and Rep. John Mica, a Florida Republican, wrote to the country's economic leaders."
...
"The Representatives also noted that the government recently became a stakeholder in AIG, and said the federal government should address the issue as "AIG has been the recipient of considerable assistance from the Treasury.""

http://tinyurl.com/5hbz73

That's the problem with precedent. Now everybody will want some.

"Results 1 - 8 of about 12,468 in the last hour for fed funding. (0.12 seconds) "

http://tinyurl.com/5uvsyu

2nd_ave - I hope your sense is better than mine. This market has turned my sense into ashes.

Wavesmash - What is a swap line?

Big Picture posted today about this map.

"Map of Newspaper Endorsements in the 2008 US Presidential Election"

http://tinyurl.com/59j848

Fair and balanced.

JohnE- anyone who says they saw the drop to 7800 coming, AND put money on it, AND didn't get shaken out with the head fake going into the bail out, is throwing buffalo chips...smartest move (in retrospect) was cash, but no one trades in retrospect...

...not to take away from ToddinFL, who played it right..

[Bill Cara note:

Sharkie, glad to see you back. Good luck to your Mom. My Dad had a series of strokes that ultimately did him in. The docs told me that the first six months is crucial that there is no set-back. My Dad improved a lot and then sank back. If that happens to you, my prayers are with you. Life can be a tough deal. That's when you realize that having friends is what gets you through it is so important. I think you'll be ok here. You have lots of support here.]

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 29, 2008 9:22 PM

just making sure shark sees this...;)

asian markets making solid moves...

I'm not a financial services expert, but Google is. :)

What is a swap line?
http://tinyurl.com/56yruo

Currency Swaps
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_swap

Would unwinding of currency swaps lead to needing USD instead of home currency, explaining huge jumps in forex volatility?

Since other foreign banks also need USD instead of home currency, this poses a problem. You lend USD to your friendly bank counterparty, and it gets nationalized or goes under because the country needs USD or because the bank needed USD and didn't get it?

You're out the USD you loaned plus you need some USD to cover your losses. Since you can't print greenbacks you need to go back to the mothership for help.

Just speculating here... but if currency swaps and interest rate swaps go hand in hand, then interest rate cuts and foreign exchange deviations would most likely be the 2 most important things in any global financial transaction.

"Currency swaps were originally done to get around exchange controls."

"Because of the weakening currency, Sao Paulo-based Unibanco would need to do a currency swap in the derivatives market to provide dollar loans to exporters, ``and this generates more pressure over the swap market,'' Travaglia said. "

http://tinyurl.com/6gopg6

Could be the reason why Baltic Dry Index dropped into the abyss. Nobody wants to give up their greenbacks to a counterparty with a "chance" of going bankrupt.

I just traded e-mails with an economist friend of mine and mentioned the confounding perplexity of the situation we are in. He said it's not complex "The country has way too much debt at all levels. No matter how you package it we are trying to borrow our way out of it. If that works it will be an accident that occurs in spite of what we are doing. For example a fuel breaktrhough that makes production much cheaper and thus makes a significant improvement in productivity. People get jobs etc etc etc. But it will be totally in spite of what the government has done. That is what happened in the 1990s. You remember when Clinton was President and Greenspan was the smartest man alive."

To which I replied:
Yep, it's the debt!
It seems many and even most countries had as much or more debt than we did (as a % of GDP). I sure wish we could all just swap our debt and wipe out the problem. But, it's probably not that simple...huh?

It seems like this is one of those situation where you describe the problem and the final phrase is

drum roll...

...and then a miracle happens!

Wavesmash - Thank you.

wavesmash - Just read your respons and that was very helpful. Now I have to read it a few more times. It's just homework. Thank you again.

Countries with forex controls:

http://tinyurl.com/6z592l

Hey, the Bahamas is on there!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahamian_dollar

"The Bahamian dollar is pegged to the U.S. dollar on a one-to-one basis. The Central Bank of The Bahamas states that it uses reserve requirements, changes in the Bank discount rate and selective credit controls, supplemented by moral suasion as main instruments of monetary policy, the objective of which is to keep stable conditions, including credit, in order to maintain the parity between the U.S. dollar and the Bahamian dollar while allowing economic development to proceed."

How come they don't peg to the pound?

What the heck is Moral Suasion?

Jawboning
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_Suasion

Shark
Glad to hear your mom is on the mend, been there with a few friends, it’s a slow process but we're all thinking about you both.

Vinod
Don't be so down on TA, I know many think of it as Voodoo Analysis, ya how can you predict the future by looking at the past. Well its just another tool in the Toolbox. Being an engineering type I always used math in analyzing problems, tracking trends, looking for significance in data series etc. and that’s all it is, just another tool to help analyze data.

There are 100's of indicators etc. but they are all based on just a few simple data points, price (high, low, open, close) and volume. They help by graphically showing trends and reversals, much easier than trying to remember all those prices in your head and knowing whether the trend is accelerating or decelerating or changing. John Murphy has a good intro book on the subject, (easy reading), "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets". He also covers point and figure charting which looks a price trends independent of time, another good tool.

Another Voodoo area is candlestick charting an ancient Japanese method for analysis of crowd psychology, the good books are by Morris or Nison.

I highly recommend these areas to everyone interested in adding to the trading / investing toolbox. Check out the library and then I'm sure you will purchase a few for your own library, I've bought quite a few. Still learning but the best part is the techniques help to take the emotion out of trading. I still have that problem of becoming involved with stocks and the story, but my best times are when I just follow the charts and trade/invest like a machine, without emotion.

My fav is Point & Figure chart.

http://tinyurl.com/5db7dc

Confirms my suspicion that O's are bad and X's are good and OOOOOOOAOOOOO is probably the sound you make when falling off a cliff.

P&F pattern for XIU.to (TSX) shows "Bear Trap"

Same with QQQQs

Since I sold CNR today it is in "double top breakout"

Macroblog has a good explanation of current Commercial Paper focus & CPFF.

http://tinyurl.com/8p8cr

Shark
welcome back and I wish best of health for your Mom

Quasi
I used to train technician to do component level troubleshooting using assembly language diagnostics for 10 years.
Now out of 20 techs only couple were good at finding complex problem on CPU board of mainframe. But they all were tech.
Same way TA is an art not a science and not everyone can be good at it. To paddle this product to every one is a kind wrong of business?

Sharkie - Glad to see you back! Hope your Mom recovers soon.

Bill - A sincere salute to you. You are a bigger man, in character, than the credit's given.

Check out FSLR. But i must warn today's action was odd.

http://tinyurl.com/5z5gop

Raises 2008 sales view, 2009 sales view in line.

First Solar net income more than doubles, tops Street.

Revenue up 119 percent to $348.7 mln, above estimates.

I own zero shares or positions on fslr, but have been watching it.

Vinod, RE TA,

You're right its all part art / part science, they are tools to try and get a handle on what is going on in the markets, long term / short term. Its not something people learn overnight, it takes years and there is no one system, anywhere which is a holy grail for all the information. Each one has its pros and cons, but together they sometimes give confirming signals all at once, just makes the entry or exit decision (60/40),a little better than flipping a coin, (50/50).

I use them all, news, fundamentals, and TA, works for me, everyone has to find something that works for them.

But I'm always open to new tools, I follow your option trades with interest, its another area I'm trying to expand, please keep posting them.

thanks Quasi

Jock,

In response to your post as to what value VAL GOLD might have, I have no defense, none ...
I am shamelessly speculating on my earlier failed speculation.

I am simply trading prices in an illiquid security. Hoping, betting that before Val Gold goes BK, there's either a moon shot or an orderly liquidation of assets resulting in a few cents being sent my way. Such things have happened in the past!

But I see more justification for making this stock purchase than for someone buying Dec 5 calls on SLW (and that's why I thank Billy Sundance for a great trading tip, the opportunity to write those calls!).

Good trading to you!

Robbie

P.S. I am always asleep at market close ... my excuse is lack of an internet connection bedside in Thailand.

Shark,
Welcome back! I have missed your posts. Keep your chin up with regard to your mother. I am in the business and see amazing recoveries on a regular basis, thanks in large part to PT/OT/speech therapists, time, and hope...
MCM

Asia markets are rockin' so far

http://tinyurl.com/3xr343

One thing i noticed today was even after the horrible close, a lot of stocks were still up big.

no clue what tomorrow brings

Nice to see you back Shark. Best regards to your mother. Wish her a swift recovery.

Yes NYUgrad, I was just looking at that exact same chart, we do need some more follow thru here and a little slow down in the volatility would help.

I was away this afternoon so didn't see the close till later. Looked kind of like the standard wipe out across the board, as if large ETF fund players did not want to hold overnight, we've seen this over and over.

However when I checked my port I was at the high of the day. Mostly PM's and oil/gas, they all retained most of the days gains. Checked my watch lists on these sectors and 95% of the stocks were all up a fair amount. Of course about 3% of that was just the fall in the $US, but the average was more like 3 times that.

Interesting / stressful times at the volatile turns. Still think we will be range bound for a while and need to consolidate before a nice steady climb. In general I don't think we take out the highs for many months, but betting on PM's, O/G and food being the leaders.

But as always, my opinion is subject to change without notice.

Dollar heading south...86+ to 83+ at present in the past 24 hrs. Perhaps the POG and miners will hold up here even if the rest of the market takes a breather...

Long SLW, AUY, DGP.

Robbie Fields - VAL, and other gold juniors

I think juniors with cash covering at least a year's worth of "burn rate", production or near-production, and (of course) a 1st-rate, well-connected team are the most likely to survive.

Next most likely might be those "project generators" with several JV's with seniors under their belt, where the seniors are spending serious money.

Third would be those few with huge 43-101 compliant resource(s).

Do you remember Bill's recounting of '81-'82 when a high % of juniors went under?

With profitable senior and mid-level producers so beaten down, maybe they are the best bet for initial new commitments of cash as the gold market turns up.

Let's hope today was the start of something big!

Reactions?

Welcome back Shark. Prayers for your mom. In the meantime, take pleasure with being able to serve her.

gotta get some sleep. but the asian markets are really on a tear right now and the futures for Europe are all up big too. Afraid to fall asleep and wake up to a less rosy picture.

see you all in a few hours.

Last note. Maybe Bill can cover the new Fed Swap lines ($120B) and the inter-relation of this with the dollar, and the rest of the markets, tomorrow am?

http://tinyurl.com/6pgykp

we are basically loaning the USD to other countries right? this seems to be the real catalyst for global rally tonight.

"Fed Opens Swaps With South Korea, Brazil, Mexico "

...and Singapore

The Economist has a good article about the new Fed rate cut. It's here:
http://xrl.us/ovk7j
The most interesting part I found is this:
"Even if the Fed did target zero, it might encourage banks just to leave their money at the Fed rather than lend it to each other, causing the federal funds market to dry up."
For the same reason I'm afraid that with the big aids for banks, at the end the BigBanks just get money from Central Banks, and the interbank rates do not make sense anymore. BUT they are the real rates for all of us: people and companies making the real economy...

Quasi
Thanks a lot for your post about TA
Original reason I wrote the post was I am getting lost of email and paper mail to buy this TA system and that TA system from them for price of $19.99 /a month to 899/year.
And I got feeling that there is a cottage industry out there of this kind of service who is out there to rob people of their money. I feel they all are crock

Charles Lemonides is on TOUT TV with his projection of how the markets are moving MUCH HIGHER from here. How's Charles' HOT HAND been playing?

http://tinyurl.com/6sy32l

ALOHA !!

Ron ... Yes, I agree these guys should be disbarred from TOUT TV even!!!

Here is another loser from Japan ... Mizuho Bank which jumped into the CDO markets in Dec 2006 is now bleeding huge losses because the CEO hired on a Ukrainian math whiz kid, Alex Rekeda, to run the show. Turned out to be a big mistake. Here is what the Mizuho CEO, Maeda said about the entire bank failure during a recent court testimony.

"Maeda also defended the bank's decision to enter the U.S. securities market.

``It's not because of some management failure that things turned out like this,'' he said. ``I am very sorry to tell you, doing nothing, and not taking risk, is not a bank.'' END

I thought Japanese execs who failed shamefully committed hari-kari! I guess they have adopted the US policy of blaming others and asking for a bigger bonus!

There you have the very reason that the entire globe is in the mess we are in. I would dare say that is the precise reason the US Federal Reserve needs to be eliminated. This is the same mentality that permeates every square inch of the US FED and every one of its member banks. Why then, is it up to US TAXPAYERS to pick up the TAB for their failures. Perhaps if these banks were allowed to fail then such perverse mentality would be culled. BANKS ARE IN THE LEVERAGE BUSINESS ... 99% of banks really could care less what happens to depositors funds. I hope people here have thrown away any notions of bank loyalty or political party loyalty, for that matter. I long ago dumped party loyalty. You have to earn my loyalty and so far the US government of both parties have failed miserably.

If you are wondering what happened to the Ukrainian whiz kid, Alex Rekeda, who essentially got Mizuho into the CDO mess with his brilliance, then look here ...

"Rekeda, meanwhile, has moved on. He now works for Guggenheim Capital Markets LLC in New York, along with Paolo Torti and Xavier Capdepon, who both followed him from Calyon to Mizuho. Their new jobs: selling distressed CDOs at a discount."END

HA! Its laughable that the same guys who created the vast losses for Mizuho are now profiting from cleaning it up!

If you allow failures to be rewarded then you get to watch your kids future go down the drain. Ultimately the cost of the entire global banking failure will have to be paid for by future generations. So far with trillions of losses the global execs of these failed banks have suffered no consequences at all and in fact many like Rekeda get rewarded further either with continuing bonuses or golden parachutes or they get better jobs doing clean up! One great example is Alan Greenspan ... Why is this man even allowed to speak publicly any more?

This is a monetary crisis ...

QUESTION AUTHORITY !!!!

ALOHA !!

I love it!!

Joe The Plumber is so fed up with the two parties that he is voting for RON PAUL!

Excellent choice JOE!!!

He just learned in two months what the entire US Voters have yet to learn in five decades! BOTH PARTIES SUCK!!

After OBAMA and the DEMS are done wreaking their havoc for the next four years the US Voters will switch back to the REPS!

ROME IS BURNING!

futures are gung ho but GDP and unempl stats might out-trump futures tdy.

stance: selectively bullish

watch list CGX WHR

long CGX yesterday

sticking in bid for FXP at 83, LT support line.

LOL! Wavesmash, that site is almost as good as the Onion! Pretty funny, the photo is classic.

Yes Kaimu, it's a parody. Sorry.

Welcome back Shark, glad to have you back on board. My best wishes for your Mom. You have a good Mom support system here. My Mom has had a couple of those minor strokes, things get better.

Yikes....bummer for those holding PM stocks today eh? LOL!!! Aren't you glad you held SLW until the Fed announcement? Now kids, don't sit and stare at those PM profits....take a little (even partial positions) when the gettin's good and the mood is giddy. You know this is temporary....

I was going to post that warning but I see Tango6 beat me to it. Nice job.

We have about 40 mins to see what happens to futures...and wasn't Bloomberg reporting on the disconnect between futures and opening action.

If you think it is negative for futures/open you might want to schnitzel some profits if you have em'...or maybe get a little ultra something.
However...for some reason I'm getting that fresh bull smell in the kitchen.

Oh, and CONGRATULATIONS Bull Hunter and all Phillies fans and to former Seattle Mariner Jamie Moyers.

steak for breakfast?

Oct 27 news
Japan's Nikkei sliding 6.4 percent

Oct 28 news
NIKKEI 7,621.92 6.41 % 459.02

6.4% down and then 6.41% up doesn't get us back to where we started.

But maybe 6.4% down + 6.4% up + 9.96% up does?

Maybe yesterday and today make up for it? I think we still need a couple more 8-10% up days to get us out of the woods.

Does David has the right idea?!? Speculating with credit card debt against the stock market?!?

Credit card bailout?

"An alliance of financial industry interests and consumer advocates on Wednesday asked federal regulators to allow lenders to reduce by as much as 40 percent the amount of credit card debt owed by deeply indebted consumers in a special program."

http://tinyurl.com/5hh5uj

Not sure how this promotes smart use of credit cards, but I wish they did it 12 years ago when I had $150k of 'em.

ALOHA !!

I knew the butt crack was too good to be true!!!

Well, there is one bit of info that was true. RON PAUL could care less if he gets anyone's endorsement!

At the time I was cash advancing my credit card to buy shares in .com companies and speculative health companies. :)

Still own some shares in HMSL or whatever it is called now. Got out of BRE-X & BID.COM before their untimely demise...

Good morning from Pennsylvania, home of the WORLD CHAMPION Philadelphia Phillies.

There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes at this time.

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A little Phillies celebration:

http://tinyurl.com/6noma8

SMiles,

If I were young enough (and could raise enough capital) I would offer an à la carte service. If not cable, then satellite.

It can't be that difficult. Surely there is a way to program access to an individual selection. Look at what has happened to the niche marketing of print — no more mass subscriptions to LIFE, Saturday Evening Post, Ladies Home Journal types of magazines — you can get The Left-Handed Handiman in the language of choice today.

It will happen when enough subscribers quit paying a blanket fee to get a couple of channels. Oh course, it will put some really poor actors, news anchors, game shows and other borderline talent on the street, but they can always run for Congress or some other useless position.

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Mackinaw,

Even without a bad Q4 I expect a huge tax write-off will rock things. Whoever is elected, watch for outstanding tax creation.

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wavesmash,

re: business corruption

In my forty + years in business, I soon learned a few basic protective techniques and only had an overalll loss of under $700 in uncollected fees. Most of my clients were local businesses in a city of 150k people.

I did notice a distinct deterioration as the locals (first and second generation citizens) died off and companies became part of larger corporations. "We are pained to have to lay people off," replaced an overall reduction in pay — top down — in recessions.

Cuts in benefits to those who previously in annual reports were often called "our most important resource," coincided with performance bonuses (in one case 6-figures in a 23.75% down earnings year) and stock options for the board and top management.

In my view, bigger was seldom better. Now we see the biggest remaining banks buying others...

Now, TBTF (Too Big To Fail) is now what I say when really ticked off.

I knew I should have picked up some Siberian Express a couple of days ago.

"MOSCOW, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Russia's RTS exchange said it was suspending stock trading for one hour from 1405 local time (1105 GMT) on Thursday due to the sharpness of the market rally.

At the time of the stoppage, the benchmark RTS index was up 12.2 percent. "

http://tinyurl.com/6nspnk

Grym: AMEN....please, I would be your first gleeful customer. I only need a few channels and some of the rest I don't want to support with my programming dollar.

Now *that* would be freedom.