i think there is a Friday article coming out on Obama's alternative energy plan in the Times magazine.

There are discussions that his aim will be to make alt energy an industry that America leads in, much like how America had been know for the automotive prowess in the early days.

Been watching fslr and it has held up longer and better than most vs other stocks and even stocks in its own sector.

I do not know when, but i am pretty sure solars will be in favor when the next bull is on its way and i start to get stock tips from gas pumpers and pizza shop owners.

not that there is anything wrong with pumping gas or owning a pizza shop. just making the point at peaks, stock tips come from all over the place.

India, Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan are all essentially down by half, and of course China's been cut off at the knees...have you noticed the further down we go, the more bearish investors become? whereas the higher it went last summer, the more bullish they were? and contrarian theories 'require' maximum bearish sentiment for a bullish call...crowd psychology is a 'funny thing,' yet it never fails to recur, which is why betting on human nature is usually a good bet-> men know it, women know it, kids know it, cops know it, traders know it...let's see where it goes today...

Good morning market mercenaries.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

WFMI - Upgraded to Neutral @ UBS

Price Target Lowered:

ECA - from $92 to $62 @ Friedman Billings
SU - from $85 to $40 @ Friedman Billings

-------------------------------------------------

"I love the smell of napalmed indexes in the morning." -- Gen. Bull Hunter ;^)

Have a great day.

Repost of my late, early moring post:

Grym - Good post; enjoyed reading it as I am on the same wavelength (timewise) as you.

It's often said here to disregard the advice of Brokers, but most still don't realize how much we all have been exposed to the false teachings of Brokers; eg "buy and hold", "upgrades/downgrades", target prices, "earnings were down but better than expected" crap, and so forth.

Why do so few ever comment: "I'm SOOO pleased - my $US dollar has increased in value by 21% over its last low!" That's "money in the bank", my friend, and depending on what you want to buy, that dollar will buy more than it did a year ago.

I am a chart reader. I see NO bullish charts except ultra shorts, UUP, and the $Dollar, and the last two recieve no acclaim here. Too bad for those who ignore it - except for retirees with money in good banks and Treasury backed money markets.

When the charts change, I will change.

Oh the humanity......

As doom and gloom is whipped into a frenzy I see GE/XOM/BA/XLF showing a little strength this premkt.

..and speaking of human nature, patience is indeed a virtue; not so much in the sense the phrase is used/misused on a daily basis, more in the sense of an operational guideline (remember Jude Law and Ed Harris playing dueling snipers in Enemy at the Gates?)...i could certainly have used more...

ps - I should add that it is ALWAYS easier to make money on trades (not scalps) when trading WITH the trend. No wonder so many are having a hard time making money on bullish trades now - the markets are bearish!

When this changes, I will change.

Energy:

Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama has declared his intention to free the US from the "tyranny of oil". Yet the companies that constitute "Big Oil" are deeply committed to their own survival, and are putting their considerable resources into ensuring just that.

http://tinyurl.com/5mu6gu

Kaimu:

What are your picks in Australia? I was reading up on the miners/junior minors last night, but have no idea what to look at. Also, do you have a resource for doing research on these stocks?

Thank you....beautiful flowers by the way. They must offer some right brain comfort in this crazy world.

This CBC article is dated October 6, 2008.

"Canada is headed into a worse recession than anyone expected, one that could last until almost 2010, said the country's top economists on Monday."

Article
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/10/06/recession.html#socialcomments

norm

As to your post last night at 11:59 PM. Wish I would of stayed with it on Sept 18-22. Things in my world would of taken a whole different course [great one at that!]. As for the "sands in the hourglass", mine have just about run out. Mmmm... now that would make a good a good "soap". ;-)

Will keep you posted on "the wave". Remember it is expected to plunge 2000 soon after today's run up.

I wonder how the progress of the sale of WAMU CDSs will effect the market. Here is a schedule published in Reuters a day or so ago.

...........snip.

"9:45 a.m.-10 a.m. - Auction participants will submit bids and offers for the debt backing the credit default swaps, which will be used to determine the initial recovery rate of the swaps.

"10:30 a.m. - Auction administrators Creditex and Markit will publish the initial recovery price and the open interest for the contracts will be published. The open interest reflects the amount of bids and offers that have been made, and will show if there are more buyers than sellers, or vice versa.

"12:45 p.m.-1 p.m. - Participating dealers will submit limit orders for the debt on behalf of themselves and their clients to fill the open interest.

"2 p.m. The final price of the auction will be published. (Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Leslie Adler)

QT

keep us posted. I have read that wave theory at several places on the web. not sure how they calculate it but if it is soon, we all should know about it.

thanks.

opening gap getting filled...

"Tens of thousands of Australians, many of them elderly retirees, will be unable to access their capital after AXA Asia Pacific, Perpetual Investment Management and Australian Unity suspended withdrawals from their mortgage funds."

This is the headline from Australia today. The federal gov't, a few weeks ago, has guaranteed all bank, credit & building society deposits, basically all funds under APRA. All other funds are not guaranteed. Guess what? Huge run on redemtions. Funds have frozen withdrawls, leaving many without access to funds. It starts.

MDR: Sell off comparatively steep compared to other.
What could be the cause ?

"Why are the market regulators not suspending the short and ultra-short ETFs for 30 to 60 days (until their bail-out programs take effect)? Why are there no rules for the suspension of programmed trading"?

It's hard for me to understand the rationale of things said like this. It's just too bad that we didn't hear calls to "suspend" buying of stocks when they got to levels that appeared to be to high, thus creating a risk to our capital markets. Sorry Bill, I respect you and your vast knowledge but this thinking strays too far from reasonability.

Every so often a country, it's people and the pig men running the joint need to be taken out to the woodshed to be taught a lesson. Life isn't fair and neither is the stock market. Allow free markets to dole out there medicine and just maybe we stand a chance at changing this thing for the better. That is until 100 years or so down the road the cycle of greed comes back.

Good trader makes money in bull market
And bear market. Other is follower and gets stuck by listing to some one or following to some one like religion cult. It is so funny that how wrong these people are who is in this business for 20 or 30 or 40 years and still are writing books and selling their experience

Will look to play an ORB again today in NEM, ABX, GG, and AEM. If triggered will use the day's low as a stop. One of these rallies is going stick and rally hard.

Thanks bill for todays commentary

SV

"Why are the market regulators not suspending the short and ultra-short ETFs for 30 to 60 days (until their bail-out programs take effect)?"

I'd hate to see that.....it's the only hedge the little guy can buy in his 401k.

Dear Bill,

looking at your line of reasoning you are assuming that Paulson and friends are in controle. Have you ever considered the possibility that his crisis might be much bigger than them and bigger than any governmental interference. Maybe there are no longer in controle?

regards

AES

Every day is met with amazing circumstances nearly unbearable to my eyes. Just can't fathom why HB&B would take such risk of driving the market so far into negative territory. If not for the sake of world economies, or starvation in undeveloped countries with no infrastructure, what about the sake of their own children? Oh yes, I forgot, their children will be insulated by virtue of their inheritance.

Truly disgusting...

AES, that would be a tempting concept, that this is just insanity with no one at the helm. But my gut says it's unlikely.

Is it just me, or is disheartening to see RIMM continue to fall!!!

Meanwhile, AMZN is getting crushed. I have a lot of friends at that company that are probably not so happy these days! Still, good recovery from morning low of 43.31!

Anyone shorting here?

POT anyone?

vinod- i'm starting to sense the turn in sentiment...i think we go up from here...

vinod - Yes, but few are good traders. It's easier to succeed by trading with the trend, not against it.

A couple of rules/techniques:
-- Study what works in the time span of interest PLUS the time span higher. If one trades daily signals, then also look at the weekly. If weekly is bearish, trade daily bearish signals and exit on reversals, wash and repeat. Weekly in consolidation - watch for breakouts with confirmations.
-- Reverse what works in bull market if the market is bear; ie, if in bull, one buys on cross of RS7_30, then in a bear, one should make trades by selling short on cross downs of RS(7)_70 and close on reversals. One has only to look at charts of interest and see how much easier this is to make money, but remember - look first for the bear then at the RSI, not the reverse.

Sorry if all this just repeats what everyone knows - I have some time on my hands this morning.

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hundreds of hedge funds will fail and policy makers may need to shut financial markets for a week or more as the crisis forces investors to dump assets, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said.

``We've reached a situation of sheer panic,'' Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, said at a conference in London today. ``There will be massive dumping of assets,'' and ``hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust,'' he said.

Policy makers delivered global coordinated rate cuts and bailed out banks this month to try and stem the crisis, stopping short of trading suspensions in the Group of Seven industrialized nations. Emmanuel Roman, the co-chief executive officer at GLG Partners Inc., predicted at the same event today that as many as 30 percent of hedge funds will close.

``Systemic risk has become bigger and bigger,'' Roubini said at the Hedge 2008 conference. ``We're seeing the beginning of a run on a big chunk of the hedge funds,'' and ``don't be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days,'' he said.

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi roiled international markets on Oct. 10, first saying world leaders were discussing shutting down global financial exchanges, and then saying he didn't mean it.

Posted by: 2nd_ave at October 23, 2008 10:15 AM
I think worse is yet to come
i expect to see 7500

401k, it's also about the only thing major bank RRSP (410k equiv.) holders can have in Canada too, which is likely the vast majority of people. The banks demand you are long; in a bit of loophole, you can be long the short ETFs. For some people I know, that's the *only* thing they have profitable in their accounts.

The banned short-selling and the approve the bailout plan, and where are we today!

Bill says:

"Why are the market regulators not suspending the short and ultra-short ETFs for 30 to 60 days (until their bail-out programs take effect)? Why are there no rules for the suspension of programmed trading? What doesn’t the NYSE go to shorter hours for a couple weeks? Why aren’t the commodity exchange margin requirements eased up?"

Doesn't this just delay the inevitable? Don't we need this correction and the banks to clean up their balance sheets before this will end?

Rob G

I think it's important to note that our markets aren't free now, nor have they ever been. Until the playing field is truly leveled, if that is possible, and robust regulation is adopted in lieu of self-regulation, and many other steps to break the chains which bind us, we will always be faced with the proverbial monkey on our backs.

2nd
yesterday got out of 1000 uaua at 16
day before got out of DRYS which was green. now have 10% cash and will sell anything that goes green and raise cash

Vinod:
"Good trader makes money in bull market
And bear market. Other is follower and gets stuck by listing to some one or following to some one like religion cult. It is so funny that how wrong these people are who is in this business for 20 or 30 or 40 years and still are writing books and selling their experience"

I hope you are not shooting at BC?

BTW, how many of you follow Marc Faber?
I have been following him since beginning of 2007 and he was correct at every turn, except for being a bit early, as he expected 2/2007 to be the equities top. We mentioned in July that $USD would be king for a few months and predicted sharp deflation (while being long term bear on $). He still maintains his deflationary posture. I consulted dollar charts from 2000-2001 and $ went up nonstop for a whole year. I'm trying to reconciliation Faber's view with Cara's call for a long term bottom.

Can someone help me please? Trying to make a decision whether to capitulate and sell commodities at a massive, 6-digit loss.

Mackinaw

yes. I am looking to trade POT. Buy @ 63. Maybe too low. I just want to make a few bucks this week. If i get it and it goes lower I'm still o.k. I like the stock, although ther are probably cheaper stocks in the sector that are just as good. Good luck.

ASE, the same thought has bothered me too. And Howard Linzdon's comment about a trend in all asset classes toward zero, not his belief, just a comment, bothers me. However, I think Bill will be ultimately right.

Until XLF joins the party, the indices crack the latest downtrend line, & everything confirms, I'm not going long.

vinod- that means one of us will be right!

jacek
I have learn a lot from Bill and his book help me
a lot to understand trading system.
I am talking about other who pump out so many books and are in academic field

Anyone think that it is just a cycle of selling due to markdowns & downgrades, risk regulatory requirements and capital reserve requirements that is causing this market crash? Is everything correlated in a downtrend?

Need more reserves? Sell equities. Call loans.
Loans are called? Sell equities. Call loans.
Cash redemptions to pay loans? Sell equities. Call loans.

The riskiest stocks (miners & commodities) go first.

If your capital multiplier is adjusted by the regulatory agencies of your country due to increases in risk, you need to sell off risky assets and increase reserves, and you lose some flexibility in provisioning those reserves for loans and leverage.

I don't think that it is the trading floors of major institutions purposefully causing this downdraft. Their goal is to promote the system and sell stocks to you and I (sell-side). They are limited by the Value at Risk number as to the amount and types of positions they can trade. (unless they game the system)

I think ultimately they are a victim of the creations of investment banks & nobel prize-like winning economists.

ING financial head leaves after Dutch gov't bail-out
4 hours ago

THE HAGUE (AFP) — Dutch bank ING, which received a 10-billion-euro government injection over the weekend, announced Thursday the departure of its chief financial officer John Hele.

http://tinyurl.com/6lp43z

More on "A Magic Multiplier" from Seeking Alpha.

http://tinyurl.com/5clwx7

Because "the single best predictor of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index was butter production in Bangladesh"

STUPID DATA MINER TRICKS: OVERFITTING THE S&P 500
http://tinyurl.com/6gsahw

"How about 99% with our third variable: sheep population. This is an awesome fit. It seems too good to be true, but it is. It is utterly useless for anything outside the fitted period, a total crock before 1983 or after 1993. Just a chance association, which would inevitably show up if you look at enough data series, as we did.
The butter fit was the result of a lucky fishing expedition. The rest comes from throwing in a few other series that were uncorrelated to the first one. Pretty much anything would have worked, but we like sheep."

Great for fleecing! :)

vinod [10:16am, today], I agree. My post of Thursday October 2, 2008:

[Regretfully, after looking over the carnage of just two days of trading in October, I vote that the stock and commodity trading should be suspended. This is surreal. There just does not seem to be fair market valuations out there anymore. We have reached a point where there is a lack of buyers. Close the markets until a plan is worked out. And then slowwwly open markets when reason comes back. I am just watching in awe how the current proposal in Washington is distorting fair play.] [067]

Is this just me that believe that all that conspiracy talk on HB&B pulling the stocks lower for purpose is BS? Sure some people are making a killing being short through this deflation,and perhaps we have a mini short bubble happening, but let's not be paranoid.
Every time something unexpected happens people talk about conspiracy.

In retrospect, I discovered that all this deflation scenario plays out as it was laid out by IMF economists in their World Economy Outlook dated 4/2008 (figure 1.15). The document can be downloaded easily but is a long read, ~300 pages with hundreds of figures.

I think bashing of economists is also immature.

SiO2-
Do you have a formula for deciding how far out to go on the strikes on your strangles? How much do you think the rising VIX has helped the profits you show in your Oct. study? Thanks for that study and your help.

Thanks Bill... I hear you and understand. In my minds eye there's no doubt about your level of passion and concern for us all. Thanks again for sharing your great wealth of knowledge of the markets.

CP,

As AES mentioned Paulson and Bernanke may not actually be in control. IMO they have a tiger by the tail. While still trying to protect their images, friends, et al, they are only human and susceptible to believing their own press clippings.

There is also the strongly held idea that the public needs to be lulled into a stupor in order to prevent panic. Examples: After 9/11 we were told to go shopping and all would be well. The congressional hearings to give the impression something is being done to impose justice.

At best (IMO) the flood of dollars will create outrageous inflation and to service the US credit addiction big increases in interest will be required to suck in foreign lenders.

At worst, I still think depression is a lurking possibility.

In any event, we're witnessing the end of the US economic dominance which we've enjoyed since WW2.

I've always been a skeptic — now I trust nearly no one. At least no one who could have an ulterior motive ro conflict of interest. My great uncle was in charge of Teddy Roosevelt's breaking up of the slaughter house baron's in 1902. We need another T. Roosevelt, but are likely to get little help from either of the two prime candidates.

No time for any upside economic exuberance in my view.

seeking relief packages from IMF are Argentina, Pakistan, Hungary, Ukraine, Belarus and more to join. I think problem is bigger than Paulson can handle

Markets are healing. I am seeing tons of stocks that are breaking their downtrend lines. e.g. BCR (one i own)

SiO2 - I think HB&B haven't received their newly-minted fortunes as of yet, and we have no guarantee regarding what they will do with the money once received. The money provided to date has gone to cover withdrawals and redemptions, or so we are led to believe.

AES - If this crisis is overwhelming to Bernanke/ Paulson.LLC, then I would expect them to at least pretend to move. Their wordsmithing was captivating for a time, but there's just no sense of urgency in their action. Bush appears on television with only promises and no action, then the market plunges. Tell me that wasn't a set-up... This is a trainwreck with multiple injuries rapidly transforming into fatality because the emergency response team is waiting at the track for the crossing gate to raise.

Marc Faber Down Under

Pt. 1 YouTube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GHl17899W0&feature=related

Pt. 2 YouTube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYldGVuWzLs&feature=related

Bloomberg TV 'You Can't Say That In America'

http://tinyurl.com/5qqkwx

Chickenpookie,

Take a peek at ATMI. Finding support here?

vinod - I think the IMF is running a deficit. I was wondering about that announcement.

I'm hearing muni's are starting to function with buyers showing up for newly issued bonds. I'm thinking this is important news. Maybe the IMF can issue emerging economy bonds?

Mackinaw - Yep, another "goodie"! I just don't see any bullish indicators from a technical standpoint (entire market), the only positive indicators relate to common sense.

If you wait a bit you may get a better price, keep in mind the Bull will not be wearing a cow's bell.

FranSix

Thanks for the "Bloomberg TV 'You Can't Say That In America'" link. To me Marc Faber sounds like he has a good handle on what's going on.

"Can someone help me please? Trying to make a decision whether to capitulate and sell commodities at a massive, 6-digit loss."

Posted by: jacek at October 23, 2008 10:22 AM

jacek, the contrast between a paper loss vs. a real loss is a red herring. Something that is beside the point of the right question to ask, which is: I have $X; what is the best thing to do with it?. If your answer is to buy commodities, then you should hold. If your answer is something else, you should sell.

Maybe you've heard of the idea from accounting of a sunk cost. It doesn't matter what you've lost in the past. It matters only what you gain/lose in the future.

Like a lot of people, I bought all-in when it looked like the bail-out package would turn things around. I have since sold all (at a big loss), and have been shorting, making some of the loss back.

One more thought: all fundamental and technical signals I see point to further weakness in commodities. I am currently shorting gold and oil and feel these are the two most highly probable trades right now.

best of luck to you...

An interesting calculation for today's markets. If you start out with $10,000 and you have ten 10% losses in a row, how much do you have left in your portfolio?

Answer: 10000*.9^10=3487

I find this interesting, because each day, it seems like I'm losing around 10% on the average, and yet, after all this time, there is still something left.

I find myself at a loss for words to reply to that, aucourant.

Straddles, I sold the IWM 45 puts earlier today. Will buy some back cheaper later or will buy back in a hurry if the market turns (which can happen any minute :-) ) This is a intra-day play (being out of the puts).

hulgar, I use my spreadsheet to determine the minimum move required, how long we are from expiration, and the amount of money I wish to spend.

Yes volatility helped with the gains last month. However, in many cases the calls dropped to $0. Volatility today is much higher so unless VIX goes to $100, gains should be lower. $70 was unthinkable too... Options are dangerous.

miners catching a bit of a bid here but base metal miners like TCK not faring well.

i know Bill considers TCK as sort of bellweather '
and miners are falling back to their open as i write this. small position out and im ready to reload should be go red by the end of the day.

Hi,

As I go on watching Euribor rates go down everyday, I know that credit markets are in the process of defreezing.

From its top, EUR006M has fallen from 5,44% to 4,99% today.

The ease is significant, and the trend is expected to continue.

This will impact the market gradually over a period of 6 months, but the first signs will be felt in about a Month.

So, the oil tanker is indeed turning.

Plus, from a market psychology standpoint, the elephant in the room is the election, and that will be taken care of in little over a week.

Further, a world summit is up on November 15th.

People who believe that this will not have an impact on the market need to stop, take a deep breath, and think twice.

The liquidation will go on untill it stops, but the grand tide is turning.

Enjoy your day,

Cheers!

Just when we all feel that it can't possibly get any worse ... it does.

Norm

A little excerpt from the latest on the "EW" outlook.
~~~~~~~~~~
"The wave 4 triangle pattern remains in play, in fact Wednesday’s price action fulfilled almost
perfectly the wave {d} decline from the top descending boundary to the bottom rising boundary. Next should be the final wave for this symmetrical triangle, wave {e} up. Here’s the thing about this next wave. It can be short, or long, can reach the upper declining boundary and finish there, or truncate, fall short of that boundary, then reverse sharply as wave 5 down begins. The reason we have been so focused
on this symmetrical triangle, is that there are very high odds that the direction of prices entering the pattern will be the same direction they leave. In the current case that would be down. Further, this pattern gives us a measurable downside target. That target would be the distance that wave {a} traveled,subtracted from the top of wave {e}, wherever that lands.

This all means if in fact this is a symmetrical triangle wave 4, as we strongly suspect, there will be an approximate 2,000 point crash from the point of wave {e}’s top. That should start within a day or two. We can now estimate that the downside target should be somewhere between 6,700 and 7,100, depending upon how high wave {e} goes. If {e} stops at the upper boundary of the triangle, that would be around 9,000, meaning the crash should take prices down to 7,000ish.

Mackinaw,

I notice that if I use 20 10% losses, the remaining amount is $1216. The curve gradually levels out. My point is that if things have already gotten so bad that you have lost 2/3 of your portfolio, you have to ask the question of whether you should hang on or just sell. Just by adding $2276 cash to the account after 20 10% losses, I am back to an equivalent position after 10 10% losses. Thus, if I am in a position where I am not forced to sell, like some hedge fund that is facing margin calls and redemptions, perhaps I should just hold what I have. The stocks that I own are incredibly cheap when thinking about their fundamental value, so why not hold at this point.

I obviously should have used position sizing and gotten out according to plan, but finding myself having lost 2/3 of my portfolio, I consider the above argument for keeping my stocks.

Judging from the comments from this blog you could hardly tell that the host of this blog is actually unabatedly bullish. Even those who are long seem only to talk about doomsday longs (aka gold).

People aren't listening. It would be refreshing to hear more comments from people who are actually aligned with Bill's views. I am :-).

aucourant, Mackinaw - I figure that if my portfolio drops by as much as 50%/day but not more, it will last for eternity. Problems is, there will be no gain. An alternative viewpoint: If say I purchase an equity at $100/share which looses value and is repriced to $50 but then recovers to the original price, the net losses are time, opportunity, and possibly inflation.

Our current deflationary period is pricing these stocks lower, which means your equities holdings aren't as beneficial as holding cash. This is a counter intuitive trend poised for reversal in the case world economies recover.

UAUA at 12.76...

Muzie- a contrarian voice within a discourse that has been contrarian to the contrarian views of the host- i agree...

Muzie:

I think what you're seeing (reading) are traders navigating this market and trying to make some sense (and a little profit) of it all. Renting stock for a few minutes or hours is the only thing working.

If you thought the carry trade offered some complications in understanding forex, try this article about carry trade derivative swaps on interest rate differentials and 'swap waves':

Reuters

http://tinyurl.com/6zpw6m

ALOHA !!

Look, this is what we get when we allow BIG GOVERNMENT and BIG BANKS to run wild, expanding at breakneck speed all the time under opaque at best disclosure. As I have said in the past and Bill confirms in his comments today, regarding fractional reserve banking and derivatives, banks are in the LEVERAGE BUSINESS! They profit off the leveraging of OPM!!! That's all they do! That's been their business model since banking began ...

Literally most Americans never even heard the word "derivatives" until a few months ago! None of the "Sheeple" knew banks were in trouble until Bear Stearns totally collapsed over the weekend and might I add that the so called "experts" like Cramer were yelling out to BUY more BSC at the lows that Friday!

As a US citizen I could not even tell you how much gold reserves the USA has! Actual gold bars ... not swaps and leases and paper IOUS, but actual real gold bars sitting on a pallet! Nobody here or even President Bush can tell me that! I seriously doubt that President Bush could even explain to me what a "gold derivative" is! Why doesn't the Washington Press Corps ask those questions? "Sir, Mr. Bush, can you explain gold derivatives or any derivatives to us?" I doubt he could even explain why the USDX is in rally mode! "Well, its because America stands for democracy and freedom and so does our dollar! People around the World see that!" The guy already has shown that he doesn't even know what a gallon of milk costs!

Here is my point ... Many in America will be going to welfare offices and filling out forms for SSI, SDI Social Security and Food Stamps and the like. To get around $600 a month of Social Security benefits you have to fill out a number of forms, totaling about 12 pages. Here they are:
- Social Security Benefit Application
- Disability Report(if applicable)
- Authorization To Disclose
- Third Party Forms(to verify economic/disability status)

Some of the questions on the forms are personal.
- Are you right or left handed?
- What do you do from the time you get up until the time you go to bed?
- What kind of foods do you eat?
= Do you do yard work? If not, why?
- What methods of transportation do you use?
- Are you able to groom yourself?
- Do you shower and shave regularly?
- What are your leisure activities?

The form banks use to secure $billions of loans from the US FED is only one page long! Not to mention about all the collateral they have is their bank building and if forced to take out a business loan at their own bank would not even qualify. Is it good business sense to hand these banks trillions of dollars with absolutely no scrutiny or real obligations to pay back. As soon as they get funds they're off to spas and resorts! Yes, they're suppose to pay these "temporary loans" back but get REAL ... when has the US TAXPAYER ever prospered from bailouts of any entity in the past?

So here we all sit depressed about our losses and wondering when it will all end and we get back to good old "Bubble Days" of yester year where shagging one day 50% gains was like shooting fish in a barrel! One after another! IPO 1000% gain in one hour!!! Three stock splits in one year!! Yipee!!! Yeehaw!!!

Now the mood is horde cash, don't loan, sell stuff and whats next? Food shortages?

What we have here are just plain old CORRUPT politicians being allowed to appoint CORRUPT bankers to run the country and control our money! With this kind of embedded corruption there is NO transparency and there is NO accountability and therefore the politicians and bankers are literally ABOVE THE LAW! Only people in the streets can change that!

I wrote my Washington DC reps not to pass the BAILOUT and they did anyway, because it had some pork in it! I told them I would fly to Washington DC and help them pack if they passed the BAILOUT! I am committed to voting out every incumbent and every Rep or Dem! THEY HAD THEIR CHANCE TO SHOW WHERE THEIR ALLEGIANCES LIED! They certainly showed us the WE THE PEOPLE are at the bottom! Do we reward that?

In reality you can read all you want here or over at Roubini or over at Jim Sinclair or Don Coxe or Faber ... pick one ... but only the people sitting inside the guarded doors of the US FED and the US TREASURY really know what is going on. They and only they know what direction America is headed. They could call Marshall Law tomorrow or they could throw $10til onto the bank fire in one click of a mouse or they could just sit back and let the entire system collapse! We here on the outside of the halls and rooms of POWER know almost nothing, we get hints and tidbits here and there, but that is all. They can control the data, the money, the laws and our rights. Welcome to BIG GOVERNMENT ... Welcome to the USSA! You voted for it ...

ALL OUR BEST THINKING GOT US HERE!!

it's been bearish so long, it's easy to forget what it's like to be bullish-> when it turns bullish, you'll be glad you bought when it was bearish...

Muzie,
I'm aligned with Bill, for what it's worth. I actually started buying with strict stops a little earlier than Bill's call and despite lowering my position sizes and widening my stops to accomodate the increasing volatility, I found myself closed out of most of my positions and back in mostly cash (less $10K). A number of the great stocks I got at good prices subsequently rallied. On the Monday Oct 13, after Bill's big Friday BUY alert, I decided to forgo strict stops and just dove back in. I've been trying to build a diversified Global portfolio across many asset classes. I've got 19 long positions now and i've been adding to it daily. e.g. ECA and CNQ today, HYG yesterday. I'm a bit down overall on these holdings but feel confident with what I see in the technicals and fundamentals, despite all the crazy noise in the news.

"First move, wrong move."

Phase 1. Everyone's on the deflation wagon because the government isn't moving quickly with bailout implementation.

Phase 2. We have bailout implementation and big-time inflation.

Phase 3. A couple of years from now, with Obama as president, we get Paul Volcker version 2.0
(or reasonable facsimile) to raise rates and "kill" inflation.

I will have enjoyed buying gold in Phase 1, holding in Phase 2, and Selling in Phase 3, I think.

Buy 200 Shares of SNDK
Details Filled at $9.36
Buy 200 Shares of SWC
Details Filled at $3.26
Buy 100 Shares of MGM
Details Filled at $10.39
Buy 200 Shares of LVS
Details Filled at $9.08

Red flag sale on in Canadian Equities... get yer Canadian equities...

Suncor looks like it's coming up for air.

Remember Potash split a couple years ago... $60 is the new $30?

CADUSD=X trying to peek out of its snowbank.

http://tinyurl.com/5denj3

GE no longer at "as seen on TV" prices of $19.99. Now trading at Wal-mart $18.88 prices.

VLO looks like it's taking a drubbings compared to its competition. P/E of 3.47

http://tinyurl.com/6rctfk

Deals to be had here... don't call bottoms though.

Muzie,

I am completely aligned with Bill.

However, as a manager of OPM, I am quietly waiting for signals that the liquidation has run its course.

Also, in my personal portfolio, I am in cash, as I have no interst in catching the bottom: I will join the uptrain when it starts chugging along in the near future.

Best,

Considering the extent to which the oil price moved markets during the mania in oil prices, the dowside capitulation is still awaiting its denoument for the oil sector. Graceful bow, or face plant?

Surely ABB is a buy at this level?? Huge volume today.

IMO, we're a long way from a true bottom. Unlike '87 where the surgeon just came in and tore your guts out in one (day) fell swoop, this is like being in the dentist chair for agonizing months.
Posted by: Seamus at September 16, 2008 11:03
AM [link]

DOW was at 11,269 on September 16th.

We’re still in the dentist chair, the novacaine has kicked in for some, but isn’t working very well for others. That’s what happens with a root canal.

But the end is getting closer IMO. Just hope the most pain is not the last drop, but has already occurred, covered by the fog of the anesthesia type drug.
**********************

Couple of thoughts looking ahead:

Mutual funds, hedge funds closing out their year at the end of October. (Selling?)

We’re coming up to tax selling season for those wanting to harvest losses vs. gains.

Fed meets next week and will probably cut another 50 basis points. (Heading to late 80’s Japan situation?)

**********************
Dollar topping?

Headlinecharts (scroll down to 3rd chart) showing $USD strength. RSI “diverging a bit” while in resistance area.

http://headlinecharts.blog.com/

VINOD-WOW-did not realize LVS was so low....I may have to grab some....wow...Vegas isn't going out of business anytime soon.

ALOHA !!

My latest ASX buy as I have already posted before was FORTESQUE METALS-FMG for $1.90USD per share! I am not hording US Pesos, I am trading them in for what I consider is much better long term value! If you want to bank on the "faith and credit" of the US government be my guest, but so far they have not lived up to the promises of the US CONSTITUTION at all! That is what I go by ... When we return to a government of less not more and when we reinstate honest money then I will return to the US Dollar. Its not rocket science. Our Founding Fathers knew what kind of government worked best and it isn't what we have now! What we have now is a government and money based on the integrity of the human condition. In other words there are no checks and balances in place ...

10-4 OUT!!!

Mackinaw - 19 holdings sounds pretty broad to me, I would've considered maybe 5 max, but curiosity and falling prices has this cat stretched more thinly than planned. I'm up to eight.

2nd
All the stock I got in today has total original (52wk High) price of 48K got for around 5k
Can not resist temptation to buy
some may go under?

Hi, power-reverse dual-currency notes are probably pretty cheap, too!

:0

F6

Kaimu - I'm curious, if you were to sell gold today, what price would it bring? I'm guessing mine would bring around $716 as of a few moments ago, while physical on ebay was around $1000 yesterday.

I wouldn't normally have so many positions, CP, but I'm trying to control risk with smaller position sizes AND there just seem to be so many goodies out there :P

Benjamin Graham the grandfather of Value Investing and teacher of Warren Buffet

Most of the time common stocks are suject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble to give way to hope,fear and greed...Benjamin Graham

Benjamin Graham recommended that investors spend time and effort in analayzing the financial state of companies.When a company is available on the market at a price which is at a discount to it's intrinsic value a margin of safety exists which makes it suitable for investment.....Benjamin Grahman(wikipedia)

Do such companies exist today?????

SV

Mackinaw - take a look at BMI...

vinod,

Good deals to be had. Have to make sure that they can pay all counterparties, not just you.

89% 52wk losses. How much gains would they need to get to that level again.

Maybe this has something to do with volatility in current markets.... zipping CDS portfolios and tossing out redundant ones.

"Earlier today, live portfolio runs took place in North America for CDS contracts referencing several widely traded North American technology, media and telecommunications companies. It achieved a 54% gross notional reduction across all participating counterparties. Thirteen credit derivatives dealers participated in this run. "

http://tinyurl.com/5m7hga

CDS Movers
http://tinyurl.com/4rtzgb

CP
I use to have 10 position and have 40
good to have many in case few go under

sv,

there are miners selling for less than the amount of CASH in their accounts, as referenced in a minyanville article posted here in the discourse (yesterday).

Put/call ratio on XOM---0.92 (higher than most if not all big oil companies; actually higher than most in sector)

Put/call ratio on XLE---1.10

wavesmash
couple are Vegas stock and I expect nothing but
roll the dice?

Results of Wamu auction.

http://tinyurl.com/5btjlo

Net open interest is about 79% less to sell than Lehman auction.

ALOHA !!

This is the kind of nonsense that ordinary people look at and wonder if they are crazy!

Are they all "bargains"? The earnings season isn't even over and neither is the tax loss selling!

READ ON:

Stocks Turn Higher as Investors Hunt for Bargains- AP

Wall Street turned higher in erratic trading Thursday as investors, while still nervous about growing signs of a weakening economy, picked up bargains from stocks that were beaten down in a two-day selloff.

* Greenspan: 'Credit Tsunami' to have severe impact- AP
* Jobless claims increase more than expected- AP
* Goldman Sachs said to cut 10 percent of work force- AP
* FDIC: New foreclosure prevention plan on tap- CNNMoney.com
* GM suspending benefits, buyouts 'well received'- AP
* Chrysler cutting 1,825 jobs with moves at 2 plants- AP
* US foreclosure filings spike by 71 percent in 3Q- AP
* Oil rises to $67 as OPEC prepares to cut output- AP
* Election Rally Coming But Risks Remain High, Strategist Bleier Says- Tech Ticker

None of the above headlines would have rallied the DOW a year ago!

SV - Absolutely, we've listed many and Bill's list is chocked full.

It's Red 23 day, why not? :)

MPEL has least EPS & worst margins... maybe I'll go with that one.

Qtrly Rev Growth (yoy): 751.90%

Hit me!

CP,
Decent looking company, that one. I guess they are getting whacked hard on expectations of reduced capex? Chart looks miserable from a technical standpoint.

Kaimu - I enjoy reading your posts. Holding SLX on the ASX based on a uranium enrichment technology being developed by GE/Hitachi/Cameco J.V.using licensed laser technology from SLX. I am underwater on this one, but thought you might like to review. Happy Trading

vinod - In that case, take a look at BMI...

Re: Loonie Vs. ¥

All I can say after looking at the loonie chart vs. the Yen, is that power reverse currency notes must be in effect against a whole raft of currencies. I believed that this would be supportive of the gold price, and it has, but price discovery in the bullion markets is basically set by contract differentials and swaps rather than physical delivery:

Loonie vs. ¥ stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/4rzkde

Re: Dow Long Term

Just as a matter of curiosity, I took a long term monthly chart of the Dow and used a fibonnaci overlay to take a look at some of the possibilities:

Monthly Chart Of The Dow since 1982 stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/58m9bm

If everything's a bargain it should be called a clearance or liquidation sale.

ALOHA !!

Look at all the job cuts. Show me a US company hiring? As I have pointed out Y/Y withholding from payroll taxes are down over 75% from 2007. No employees ... no tax revenues ... no tax revenues ... more DEBT ... more welfare! No employees ... no corporate revenues ... no profit ... no earnings!

So the banks take the BAILOUT and fire 10% of their workforce! Was that so the execs can keep their bonuses at last years levels? The banks get a US TAXPAYER BAILOUT and then hand the US TAXPAYER more unemployment liabilities! We get it coming and going! HA!!

Mackinaw - It's looking like a buyout candidate to me...

yaya,
with no disrespect to Kaimu's specific stock picks (think CNU.V, MOR.V, PMV.V, GIX.V etc., and there value today vs. around a year, 6 months, 3 months, 1 month ago...)

(we all make mistakes, and just because we may have an exceptional understanding of the macro picture does not make us great traders)

I think you should definitely be focusing on the : "do you have a resource for doing research on these stocks?" part of your question, and forget the "What are your picks in Australia?" component.

From experience, it doesn't pay to blindly jump into a ticker symbol without doing little more than browsing the website (not that you weren't planning on DYODD.)

Again, no disrespect to anyone.

Chickenpooks - last time I looked at goldmastersusa.com, they were buying gold and silver above spot - usually they are way below spot when buying and above when selling (kruggerrands bring cheaper prices for some reason).

Wavesmash: "If everything's a bargain it should be called a clearance or liquidation sale."

Yes, but every day discount is greater. Looks like the shoppers are waiting for 99.99% off signs.

goldbug58 - Thanks, keeping my radar tuned...

To those who are interested:

Elliot Wave phi mate turn date Oct 23rd.
~~~~~~~

Our Fibonacci phi mate analysis is suggesting another turn is due this coming week, around
October 23rd, 2008 +/-: This is the twelfth phi mate date we have scheduled for 2008. It will likely be a top, at the merging point of a converging triangle. We believe this could lead to yet another crash leg in stocks, in a series of crashes within wave a-down that started a year ago. This should produce enough discouragement to set the stage for a bottom that lasts a while, wave b-up. The past two phi mate turns marked the start and end of a crash, September 26th the closing top, with the crash starting
the next day, Monday September 29th, our scheduled phi mate turn. That crash leg one day before our scheduled phi mate turn date, on October 10th, 2008. On our scheduled phi mate turn date of October 13th, we got the largest one day rally in history. We wrote in our September 12th, weekend newsletter, page 7, “September 29th could be a kickoff to a devastating stock market crash.” That proved true to the day, the Industrials crashing 3,260 points, or 29 percent. The next phi mate turn after October 23rd will be November 20th +/-.

[see my 11:19 post for crash details]

I really hate how Kaimu beats around the bush..I wish he'd just come out and say what he means.

[Bill Cara note:

Yesterday was one of the most difficult for many people. To help us get through it, one of my friends circulated the following:

"I am passing this on to you because it definitely works, and we could All use a little more calmness in our lives.

By following simple advice heard on the Dr. Phil show, you too can find Inner peace. Dr Phil proclaimed, the way to achieve inner peace is to Finish all the things you have started and have never finished.

So, I looked around my house to see all the things I started and hadn't Finished and before leaving the house this morning, I finished off a Bottle of Merlot, a bottle of White Zinfandel, a bottle of Bailey's Irish Cream, a bottle of Kahlua, a package of Oreos, the remainder of my Old Prozac prescription, the rest of the cheesecake, some Doritos, and a Box of chocolates.

You have no idea how freaking good I feel right now!

Please pass this on to those whom you think might be in need of inner Peace."]

Re: Saskatchewan Coal Rush

The remnants of the Saskatchewan coal rush are still attempting to obtain leases in the eastern part of the province near a coal discovery. I wondered just why there was so much interest in this particular company and why there was such a rush into the stock. A long term reading on the chart shows that the company in question participated in a diamond rush years ago, which still seems fresh in people's minds in Canada. When you have a stock that goes from 38¢ to $120, investors are hoping for the exact same thing as the diamond rush, except with coal. Diamonds and coal are very different things, yet this one particular stock benefitted from the mania in both:

stockcharts.com:

http://tinyurl.com/66g2fx

Anyone in TGP - is that dividend expected to hold?

FWIW, I have about 35 positions. Yesterday, with the dow down, I was up $1500. Today, with the dow up, I'm down $1000. I no longer look to see why, being down $125k, on a $400k portfolio. I've reached the disinterested phase of capitulation. I have decided to wait rather than to sell. It's easier for me to wait when I don't follow too closely, I don't get tempted into panic selling.

When this board no longer has the bull/bear argument, (we're all harmonious bears), watch out for the rally.

Following the clearance sale I'll be hitting the yard sales. The Dollar bubble should have popped by then.

Chickenpookie
for your yard sale We will come if you have free beer and barbeque grill setup

killer whale - I can understand why you might have 35 positions. The longer the list it seems the more difficult to manage but diversification is definitely a wise strategy to incorporate in an environment such as this.

Added to SU at $19.85...

look like, so far volume in NAZ is higher than last few day--

QT:

It certainly looks like the market wants to run lower, but don't you think a retest of the 10/16 lows would occur first? A fall through that level would indeed be dramatic.

"The U.S. gave the world the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression," Tom Petruno writes. "In return, global investors reward us by dumping their own currencies in favor of the dollar. Make sense?" His theory: Investors are more concerned about the return of, not on, their money.
skkeing alpha

"Just when we all feel that it can't possibly get any worse ... it does."
Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 23, 2008 11:18 AM

n2s- i assume your RYL puts are doing well (if still holding)...but what's keeping you from diversifying out of ESLR? you could throw darts at ticker symbols and they'd all be down the same percentage amount...

MGM Mirage (MGM) is down reason is – Billionaire Kirk Kerkorian is force to sell to met margin requirement

...even the indexes are down the same %..

long DGP at 12.50

do ur own homework.

$USD index 5-day charts looking kind of toppy........US markets trading inversely to $USD strength of course.

$USD look like its testing resistance on the chart. If that resistance holds, could coincide with market reversal....

Getting an eery feeling of a big event to come....possibly a stealth FED announcement to direct $USD strongly in whatever way they would like?

....and thus direct equity market whichever way they would like?

bsi87,
DGP is X2 long on Gold spot prices?

401kmatters

I agree with you, but the way this Elliot Wave says it will play out, a big final wave down will occur first before the next big wave up. If it drops 2000pts or close to it, that will be the final straw for the last of the sellers I guess.

This will be interesting to see if it plays out like it has been predicted. So far since June of 2008 when I started to follow this Elliot Wave Theory, it has been on the $$$$, even these turn dates, like "voodoo". Earlier [11:19AM] I told Norm wished I would of followed it to the "T". I would of been sitting pretty now.

FarAwayEyes, thanks for you response at 11:04 AM.
Sunk cost is one issue, another is fear of selling at a bottom. But these are clearly emotions and as everyone knows, emotions don't help with investing.
You might be right, this could be a selling bubble that can go on for a whole lot longer (as bubbles tend to do). I will think about making that move.

Being a member of a yard sale fanatic family, I notice that when times are good, people are willing to get rid of more stuff for better prices.

When times are tough, it's a different story... hoarding comes to mind and sales are scarce.

This year times were tough.

MPEL at days low. Coming to me...

Canadian bank

Bank of Nova Scotia (bns) Just got hammered today with downgrades...today down $2.93

I bought this stock in 2003 at $ 33.00 cdn sold in
2006 at $ 54.00 cdn

Just bought more today..solid canadian bank

SV

Goldbug58, CP,

I once asked a dealer why Krugerrands were cheaper and was told they are not as aesthetically appealing (color) and some people still think of them in relation to apartheid. I don't know if this is still so, or if it was then.

vinod - The party remains scheduled for your beach my man, the scenery is more beautiful than my forest.

QT,
I have to agree with you. When traders focus exclusively on the upside without at least making some accommodations for possible downside moves they get themselves in big trouble.

I know many here have read "fooled by randomness" and probably understand the follies of anticipating major market turns and being early. Just because you're trading against major market trends doesn't mean the market will turn while you're still solvent.

Ask yourself, if the DOW hits 6000, will I capitulate because I'm close to insolvency? Protect your capital. The market has its way of destroying the stubborn.

re:DGP

correct. it is 2X price of gold (or supposed to be)

DZZ is the inverse 2x

trailing buy stop on PCAR. 3rd day down in a row.

Max pain 50 for nov

Rocksfall - I suppose I'm more stubborn and hardheaded than any market could ever hope to be. I'm holding until the market becomes insolvent.

Vinod,

There's a lot of denial that depression is likely as a result of the current turmoil, but there are still those saying, "We may get a recession." They are, of course, using the two quarters of lower back-to-back GDP as a definition.

I read some time back the measure of inflation came from a meeting of Nixon's reelection team in the early 1970s. Someone said, "Except for energy and food things don't look too bad," and a new yardstick was born.

I guess if a person still has a pulse he's technically alive — even if brain dead.

I'm still waiting for a media accepted definition of economic depression. When we in the U.S. bring it about don't expect us to declare it has arrived.

All dollar support is appreciated as well as surprising.

Thankx bsi87

Rocksfall

"The market has its way of destroying the stubborn."

Ouch!

AEM showing a hammer

Long.

Grym - I don't see this strong dollar as beneficial for the US economy as long as the credit market remains in contraction. This is what's making the dollar strong, not value added manufacturing and commerce... The current situation means loss of jobs and famine in parts of the world.

On the lighter side

For anyone planning to have a "Bull Market" party in the near future. Try this to impress your guests.
~~~~
"NEW YORK - Just two weeks after a Nobel Prize highlighted theoretical work on subatomic particles, physicists are announcing a startling discovery about a much more familiar form of matter: Scotch tape. It turns out that if you peel the popular adhesive tape off its roll in a vacuum chamber, it emits X-rays. The researchers even made an X-ray image of one of their fingers."

Hopefully we can put in a W bottom intraday. The 55 day fibonacci panic cycle should be at an end (from Sept. 1st). Those who would have dumped their shares have probably done so already. But we are in uncharted times and the cycle can extend to the next fibonacci number: 89! That would be the end of November.

Greenspan is saying that he never could have predicted the collapse in house prices. HIS DOCTORAL THESIS WAS ON HOUSING BUBBLES! He also said he thought banks would lend prudently to protect their shareholders! Ha! When has management ever cared about their shareholders? All they care about is their bonuses, options, pensions and golden parachutes. This is an economy of looters and hatchet-men who will be lucky if they do not destroy capitalism as we know it.

Either our rulers are incredibly corrupt or unbelievably dumb. I think it is both.

By CP: “Rocksfall - I suppose I'm more stubborn and hardheaded than any market could ever hope to be. I'm holding until the market becomes insolvent”

In a market like this, it is not that I don’t want to sell and seek a better re-entry point. My issue is I am not sure about the direction of the market movement, and hence am not confident that I can sell and re-entry at good times. The worst is to sell right before market turns, only to re-entry at higher prices.

I am guessing most inexperienced traders have the same problem.

ALOHA !!

NOW he admits derivatives should have been regulated! Even after years of Ron Paul grilling about that very subject ...

Greenspan is a flat out lair and if I were President Bush I would take back the medal of honor I gave him a couple years ago! Where's the cajones? I guarantee you he has a pile of gold stashed away in Switzerland!!!

What will Bernanke be admitting in ten years? The BAILOUT was a mistake?

Why is it we need these guys again?

Is it safe to say that the traditional RSI(7) buy-alter trigger model is out the window here?

It doesn't seem to hold up well in such volatility and panic!

There's a buy trigger on something like 50% of Cara 100 stocks, and most are severely lower than the buy alert price.

I'm looking at buying more calls on UYG. I don't usually average down but I'm thinking the financials will be the first to rally when this is over.

They'll be holding all of our tax money and will each have more cash on hand than Microsoft.

It seems as good a bet as any in this psycho market. A few weeks ago anyone would have been laughed out of here if they thought GG would go to 15 and SLW to 3. Something makes me think the banks with our money will keep those down as long as possible.

I'm looking at the June 09 $7 strike for $3.10.

I'll let you know when I execute.

Rob.

Fazeli

the Triple RSI buy is not working IMO. I would either look for capitulation RSI 7 day <10 or an hourly divergence on the MACD before entering a position.

My favorite line by Greenspan today was when he said something along the lines of how he may have to change his thinking of the free market system as it may have major flaws.

As Kaimu says, Yeah Greenspan you were and your buddies are the flaws that prevent the market from being free.

We will never see a free market until you losers get out of our way. Ask yourself some simple questions. How many insolvent companies could survive in a free market? How many companies hiding and lying could survive in a free market? How many bank trading desks could survive without seeing our order flow, which they wouldn't see in a free market?

If this keeps up there will be plenty of us taking our marbles and playing elsewhere, much to the detriment of their carefully laid plans.

Rob.

QT - Did they mention vacuum chamber pressure conditions? The adhesive outgassing would limit ultimate pressure severely in a small chamber, and contaminate a large chamber. I'd be surprised if they could achieve a pressure better than 1x10-5 Torr (space is ~1x10-12 Torr, Earth's atmosphere is ~760 Torr). X-rays? Well ok, I'll bet the spectrum was pretty wide...

80 year old man Greenspan-a ideolog said he made mistake to understand free market.
what else left to say?
we must pay the bill to clean up

BB,
No one ever knows where the market will go. All I'm saying is if you're going long, you have to get insurance via ETFs or puts. Pros buy these insurance at the time they enter the trades. If the trade will be long-term then it is a MUST, unless you're psychic of course.

Obviously, they'll probably be way too expensive now so it's what they call a conundrum. I guess the best you can do now is make sure you're not margined and hope and pray.

how about Greenie saying he screwed the pooch?

That'd work for me.

jacek, I recently found a way to counter the fear of selling at the bottom. My fear is based on psychological pain -- what an idiot I'd feel to watch it rocket the day after I sold (and, of course, I have first hand knowledge of that). How much more painful it is to take action and have it go against me than to simply do nothing.

The way I counter the feeling is to recognize that the market is continually offering up opportunities. I may miss one train by selling a stock, but there are plenty of other trains. The key, IMO, is to find the trains with the highest probability of going where I want, and if that's not the one I'm on, I'll be better off to switch trains.

good luck in your decision

Kaimu
"What will Bernanke be admitting in ten years? The BAILOUT was a mistake?"
you just game him a title to wrote a book about bailout. he may get offer to write it for 15 millions

That old man (Greenie) created more crisises (sp) than any Fed Chair in history and then "saved" the economy by dropping rates/pumping liquidity.

History will, IMO, show he was the worst Chair in Fed history which is going a long way, considering Arthur Burns and Bill Miller.

Paul Volcker will be shown in the LR to be one of the greatest.

Bet you we have a massive 3PM sell off.

Chickenpookie

This is the article

http://tinyurl.com/5jo6bc

O.K., well the 3 p.m. express will be pulling into the station soon....will it be on the southbound or northbound track?

wow, GG is going to 15.00, time to all in?

ALOHA !!

YES, the old saying about markets staying irrational longer than you can remain solvent applies in spades. That is called DEBT ATTRITION! My wife and I planned for that by severely downsizing our life ten years ago so that now we do not need to buy water, food, clothes or utilities. Just moving to Hawaiian jungles took care of most of that! We also live in a 1200sq ft home where our bedroom is 8X10. I like land, so even though we have tiny living quarters I can run around nude on five acres surrounded by jungle screaming "GREENSPAN SUCKS!" HA!! Which ... I have done! HA!! Its very therapeutic!!! I'M MAD AS HELL AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANY MORE!!! So, I throw my TV in the pasture and a cat and a pig run off and there's dead silence! Nobody cares what I do here! Least of all if I am MAD!! HA!! I even have my own defibrillator that I have on the wall here in case my only neighbor(drunken ex-Vietnam vet)or a passing tourist might need to use! Most of the time I would have to hook myself up!! HA!! I'm the only one in my area with electricity!! This is real rural life ...

Has anyone here prepared for "attrition"? Or is everyone here in a MacMansion? Does anyone "downsize" in America WILLINGLY or am I the only nut case? OPRAH?

If you need a loan to get out of DEBT(isn't that a crazy mentality?)don't ask for $600 ... ask for BILLIONS that way there is only a one page form to fill out and you do not have to prove you have done anything of value your entire life much less turn a profit! Leeches and parasites WELCOME!! HA!!

Okay ... I feel another jungle run coming on!!! YAHHHHHH!!!

there was a reversal on GLD yesterday, about 6 pts worth.

66 looks like the line in the sand.

If Greenspan were really to be truthful he would state the facts that he never supported a free market and wouldn't know a free market if he saw one.

His whole career was to manipulate the market to reward his friends.

It also make me angry when people disparage Greenspan by saying he was a follower of Ayn Rand. And that's why his philosophy is so screwed up. If he does follow Ayn Rand then his heroes are the government manipulators and pigmen she writes about.

There is no way Greenspan would ever emulate Jon Galt. Everything Greenspan has done is the exact opposite of what Galt would have done or stood for.

If I were Bernacke and company I'd be careful not to push us to far or we'll all start shrugging like Jon Galt. Where will their precious tax revenue be then?

Rob.

Sometimes the bad ratings are more fun to read than the good ones... which is why we probably watch the news and rubberneck at car accidents.

http://tinyurl.com/5bvs9p

Speaking of accidents... Down almost 5% in the Q's... where you guys think really this thing could go? I'm thinking it bounces like a gold bar hitting a trampoline... just breached the bottom band.

Mkts tanking and BA is up. TD is 2.56 and VIX is 78.55

re:Express.

that 10/10 day had a strong reversal. Something down to 8112, having hit 9750 2 days latter, would be the halfway point and would have the bulls' puking up positions. (I know I feel like tossing up a few cookies).

$USD about to rollover!?!?

Silver Wheaton touched 3.33 - unbelievable!

That's very close to where it came public. And it HAS made just a bit of progress since then.

I bought at 3.39, BUT put a stop at 3.33. Who KNOWS where the madness will end?

Eh...Kaimu forgot his meds today...

I have a visceral reaction to him running around in the nude.

All small cap companies must be liquidating and going out of business today:

UWM
IWM

"BB,
No one ever knows where the market will go. All I'm saying is if you're going long, you have to get insurance via ETFs or puts. Pros buy these insurance at the time they enter the trades. If the trade will be long-term then it is a MUST, unless you're psychic of course."

It should be remarked that in this instance you are buying these puts from people like Bill (and me). Pros buy as well as sell these puts.

Last time I checked it cost between 10% to 15% of capital being protected for 3 months of at-the-money protection. The VIX coming back down from its all time highs will also make any early exit costly due to deflated premiums. If you can accept 10% further downside puts get cheaper, but the cost to protect capital is still on the order of 5-10% of capital being protected.

I really think the options game is heavily geared against buyers right now. You can come out ahead if you're lucky and pin down the timing but over the long run option sellers have the odds in their favor.

Also, as you said yourself, if you can't know where the market will go, then it's quite plausible you buy 3 months of protection and the market crashes the day after your puts expire. There's no free lunch.

Looks like someone hit the reverse button...

"I am guessing most inexperienced traders have the same problem."

I've been following a few experienced trader blogs, some of which are up 100 to 1000% this year. Some of them are hurting today, and many have swings of +/- 30% in a week, even while managing risk.

It's a myth that there is any single class of investors that is somehow unscathed in all this. I guess those that bet it all shorts a year ago are sitting pretty. Pretty 1 in 1,000 investors.

I'd be more inclined to believe Greenspan's "incompetence defense" if he weren't sitting on the board of Markit.

Question for Bill if at all possible -

Asking out of pure curiosity,
I am wondering how much focus you do OR do not put on following the Elliot Wave signals and/or timing - ?

and, why, or why not ??

Thanks in advance for any and all input or opinion. Like I said, I ask out of total curiosity.

[Bill Cara note:

Re Elliott Wave Theory, many of the same principles exist within several technical analysis concepts, including Fibonacci series and Dow Theory. So, generally I am a believer in the basis concepts. But EWT practitioners too often have different "readings" and they too frequently re-draw their charts for me to want to follow it closely. In Nov-87 I sat in the front row of the Prechter workshop in the New Orleans Hard Money Conference, and said at the time he was making a fool of himself, which subsequently proved to be the case. I had turned bullish then too -- cost me a business relationship with Canaccord's chairman Peter Brown, who I have immense respect for, but I stuck to my guns and got into equities at the bottom then too. Part of the problem with these theories and indicators is that so many people follow them there is a self-fulfilling prophesy aspect to it. At the end of the day I know from experience that the only way to become successful at trading is to gather a wide understanding of the forest and don't spend too much time studying a single tree -- as nice a tree as EWT happens to be.]

re:krugerrands, there were at one time, some negative perceptions related to apartheid//politics//south africa, personally I think the Maple Leafs are much prettier, but an oz of au is an oz of au, yeah?

Added to VLO at $16.
(this keeps up I may have to quit smoking).

Re: ¥/€

The ¥/€ trade would have been a freak trade during the immense collapse in the markets. It just keeps on going, and is providing some downside to the gold price. Notable gaps in the last few weeks need filling and the Yen is very overbought against the Euro. The ¥/€ trade is very similar to the $US:

stockcharts.com:

http://tinyurl.com/5khx8r

Georgia says Russia deploying troops in S.Ossetia

http://tinyurl.com/5hzel2

Gold going up? Oil going up? Anyone?

All aboard the 3 o'clock sled in to hell!!

VLO is at 15.90 that is price I paid for some of my TSO

VIX getting closer to an 80 handle at 78.6 (assuming I throw away the 96 spike that Questrade reports happened for 1 minute this morning).

This isn't looking good... 3PM is 1 min away, and we've had clockwork like responses to 3PM, 3:30PM, and 3:45PM this past month.

Yeah, Vinod tell me about it - and DE looks headed for the 20s and it was $60+ in September.

There, 60 points in 1 min right at 3PM, but where to next?

net.fishing
Here we go, any guess how far we may go by 4.00P.M?

QT, are you sure Elliot waves is not voodoo?
I googled for Elliot waves and found some dumb crash predictions over the years prior to 2007.

USD selling off today. There was a report out. Isn't there always.

certainly feels like it wants to close green...

I bought more XOM from yesterday

also bought: ABX, WGW, SLW, DE, LINE, SE, KFT

Saving just a little ammo left for tomorrow in case we have a big down day...

Down about 20% from my year highs....

Looking at INTC, DXO, NVDA

I say back to $30 level or higher on the Q's ETF

vinod

Well if the S&P doesn't hold at about 870 I don't see anything but solid red flames below that...

there's always a lag time, but one look at a ten-year chart of any index makes it obvious that life-altering events have already occurred around the globe...

S&P next support levels 856 then 842 then all bets off...

I think I have sea sickness...

-250 to -120 in 3.5 minutes
then -120 to -150 in 10 seconds
then -150 to -110 in 1 minute
then -110 to -75 in 1 minute
then -75 to -140 in 1 minute...

2nd_ave

10-4 that form where I'm sitting...

whoa- someone's buying...

We can still buy these stocks on the way back up, right?

$29.80... c'mon red 23!

Re: aligned with Bill.

It's good to know a few are keeping their cool, buying a bit, and taking some risk.

I guess we're all at that stage where we see this large, complex piece of machinery where a mechanism has broken off, and we watch in fascination as the broken piece causes the entire thing to wobble and pieces start flying off in the room. "Oh and lookie can you imagine what will happen if and when that other piece breaks off??" is what we're asking. But we forget there's a bunch of mechanics trying to fix the machine, for better or worse, and right now people seem focused too much on "logical" causality chains while forgetting there is a human element, and people will not just stand aside as the whole thing flies away.

From my point of view, we really haven't had any really major piece of new information in the last month or two. Back in July/August was the time to digest the rate of home price decreases, figure out the impact on GDP, etc. etc. All that data was known months ago.

The major new thing was credit markets seizing up short after the Lehman bankruptcy - but that was ages ago now. Since then I can't take of any piece of information I've learned that I didn't learn or expect before. The market is just feeding on itself, and taking its own daily crashes as meaningful information when it isn't. "Oh my god, we're crashing, things must be REALLY bad, man, sell everything" - rinse & repeat.

$29.90...

Damn this old transmission is not gonna hold much longer... back in reverse

$30... ok can go home now.

"Last time I checked it cost between 10% to 15% of capital being protected for 3 months of at-the-money protection."

I know it's easy to say "buy insurance" in hindsight. You don't have to buy full insurance though. Or at least have a sell target. I don't think many people use hard stops or mental stops anymore.

I guess my point is that you have to manage your capital through different possibilities. Many here are boldly calling for the market to turn but this is a bear market and the consequences of being wrong are vicious. Imagine going long late 1930, halfway into the mess and waiting for the market to turn. I'm quite sure many were in that position back then. They might have wished they managed the situation better.

a little profit-taking, but after that, who's left to sell?

Looks like the buying dried up!

"there's always a lag time, but one look at a ten-year chart of any index makes it obvious that life-altering events have already occurred around the globe..."

I guess that's fine. I don't know abot you but I tend to have life altering events every four of five years anyway either way. I guess this one is just rather more unpleasant.

long ATMI @$11.05. Short term play?

Muzie- the stories will be out soon enough...just hoping we can avoid being one of them...

how can this close green when xlf is at - 6% even after the jump.

Blowout Preventer

Hopefully I'm mistaken... but I'm beginning to feel that one of the new rules that was burried in the 700 gazillion $ bailout/save the world package is that some of us are condemned to only be allowed to buy on the way down...

Fazeli,

When your sea-sick they always say "keep your eye on the horizon".

Hope that helps.

from the bleachers, which is the only place i can sit right now, it feels like rooting for the detroit lions...

Rocksfall

Thanks for the reply, and I completely agree with you.

I don’t margin and I only “gambled” with my spare money. I think I will ride this downturn out, until I feel more comfortable with timing the market.

Is anyone day trading the DOW -50 to +50 with tight bid / ask bets, maybe on DDM?

I think the prevalence of short/inverse ETFs have prolonged this slide, giving hope and hedges to those that may not have tried it in the absence of short-ETFs years ago.

Muzie,

Your post(s) is very educating. Thank you.

Well UWM has certainly been a nice little ETF play the past few weeks. Buy below 23 and climb the pole a couple clicks... today was a sweep for the shorts.

"I know it's easy to say "buy insurance" in hindsight. You don't have to buy full insurance though. Or at least have a sell target. I don't think many people use hard stops or mental stops anymore.

I guess my point is that you have to manage your capital through different possibilities. Many here are boldly calling for the market to turn but this is a bear market and the consequences of being wrong are vicious. Imagine going long late 1930, halfway into the mess and waiting for the market to turn. I'm quite sure many were in that position back then. They might have wished they managed the situation better.
"

I would argue that SELLING insurance would be a better way to hedge. Sounds odd, right?

The 90% drop in the Dow Jones during the Great Depression was nowhere near instantaneous. The first draft was quick, then a big retracement, and most of the 90% move after took years. This is an ideal environment to sell insurance because such an incredibly uncertain environment would keep the VIX to the levels it is now - and the levels it is now means most call/put writers cash in a 10% cushion before the call/put ever touches the call/put writers capital.

The market's not going to fall 20% every month - or, at least, carefully selected equities that are deemed strong won't. Collect a 10% premium three months in a row then get hit with a 20% loss would still come out ahead. And no market timing required, contrary to the put buyer who needs to either time when the crash will happen to minimize his expenses or pay ridiculous amounts of capital to try to minimize the risk over large timeframes. With the extreme doomsday scenarios people are thinking of, well, you might as well take into account put writers going into default as well - that's exactly why CDS insurance is blowing up today, is people buying insurance and thinking they've actually minimized risk. Risk can be spread out, not eliminated.

I seem to remember reading that in 1987 one of the causes of the crash was people piling in puts. Market makers would then short the stock to hedge their book which, as you might have guessed, caused further downside pressure on the stocks, and thus more put buying. This continued to the point where I believe even the efficiency of put buying was put into question - causing the crash.

long PCAR at 23.43.

Ok, we're heading into the final stretch (30 min) who wants to call it... heads we finish green, tails we finish red...

Rocksfall- I agree with your premise. The only thing that has kept me in the game is buying OTM index puts. I try to buy them on rallies and put a trailing stop on them when the market falls. Usually don't have long to wait. You have to do something like this or at least put stops on your positions in case you are wrong. If the market rallies I roll them higher. It's the cost of doing business. I will stop doing this when the market trend turns higher. Some of the gut wrenching stories on this board could have been prevented by doing this.

Everyday I am going to sacrifice one of my positions to the trading gods. Maybe this will turn things around. Like many on this board, I am underwater, but at least not leveraged. I don't post often, but greatly appreciate those who do!

Thanks,

Miggs

long USD (semi's, not bucks) at 15.40

Throw a virgin in the volcano, Miggs.

Works for me. (gotta sell something u don't want to)

re:SLW

Nov max pain is 5 bucks. Dec 10

No position.

MICC.

wow.

keep in mind the market is just us, not an abstract casino game, and (IMO) not a conspiracy...makes it easier for me to watch and wait...

Plenty of green on the CARA 100

"Muzie,

Your post(s) is very educating. Thank you.
"

Hehe thank you as well :-).

I'm scared too, but trying to write out my thoughts to think things through helps to cope with that.

That and detaching my concept of self worth from the number in my portfolio goes a long way.

jacek

This guy offers a month freebie... check it out..

http://tinyurl.com/6buxvv

BA +2.84 now.
"Talks To End Strike-AP will resume October 23," also lost but settled lawsuit. Perhaps that accounts for the stock move.
msn money central
disclosure: I own Jan BA calls

"keep in mind the market is just us, not an abstract casino game, and (IMO) not a conspiracy...makes it easier for me to watch and wait..."

Ah, couldn't have said it better! NOT A CONSPIRACY. The sooner we realize that, the sooner we see 99% of us are hurting ourselves by panicking and move on to actually fix something instead of trying to be the first one in the 10-mile long "SELL" line. :-)

Today's closing action only underscores the degree of uncertainty that exists.

QT

So what's their take on the situation?

Cramer's 50/50 rule worked for me today.

$30+ close on the Q's?

$30.13 realtime now...

Now that's gotta be market manipulation at its finest.

FCX hourly MACD divergence.

No position.

Ditto GDX.

2nd
"keep in mind the market is just us, not an abstract casino game, and (IMO) not a conspiracy...makes it easier for me to watch and wait..."

yes, I thnk market is having few beer and is drunk. going all over the placs

net.fishing

I fill you in tomorrow when I get the stuff tonight at 10.

This has been one STRANGE market day.

I->I'll

QT

Thanks, I'd like to compare with others I follow.

vinod- just keep yourself sober...drunks get rolled...

MOS $163 to $28 and change in just over 4 months...

Amazing grace, how sweet the sound
That sav’d a wretch like me!

number2son:

I agree, that to watch it seems to make it worse.

In other words people are now measuring it to their greatest fears and those fears push it further.

I took the past few days off and only occasional peeks just reinforced my stance on being happy to just walk away from it. What ever paper dragons / pesos I "had" in the market are truly merely wisps of illusion now, not worth clinging to. They may or may not come back to me.

It really doesn't matter. :) after we all have the power to enjoy where we are in the now if you trust your own heart.

Miggs; perhaps you are right

This is a test of faith to the trading gods

yet I would fear then we are the one who were sacrificed in this new world religion.

bsi87:

I happen in have a spare volcano or two in my back yard here in Hawaii

I suspect I know who would be first on the list to be thrown in. Except I think Pele would spit him back out for being too foul...

To all:

Strength is in awareness, not in letting any crisis or forced conditions to define you in this mess. If you can turn that around... it will with patience end up being the best of times...

Trying to catch a bid for the Q's at $30. Seems to be my lucky # today.

Probably better luck with a $30.23 bid.

The 2003 trend line looks to be the blandest growth curve I have seen. Has to be some manipulation going on there...

FIRE THAT B-TCH UP, CASEY.

WE GOT SOME VIRGINS TO BBQ.

Whoa... brakes aren't working...

2nd
It been very sad day, but i try to change my mood
there is layoff all day here and I get their name one by one to take them off the system so they can not logon.

net.fishing

This guy offers a month freebie... check it out ..

http://tinyurl.com/6buxvv

900-902 1st resistance on the S&P... be really a good thing to break through that level.

Drill baby... drill... keep going

MSFT earnings AH

Simply another amazing day... what else is there to say?

This market is funny in a way. It's like a script.

"Okay bears, from open till 2PM, you get the field. 3PM to 4PM is the all clear for any buyers to come in and scoop up stuff for reduced prices!"

Anyone shorting in the last hour must have been extra nimble to not get whipsawed here. And in fact any stubborn shorts have lost the day's gains if the didn't cover.

Well I guess I hope support holds. But it's good to know bulls come out to fight every now and then.

At least, at the end of this train ride from hell of a day, we broke through the first level of resistance from yesterdays close on the S&P.

vinod: It's not that sad... I mean we were down something like 4-5% at one point. Now the shorts got sucker punched and only down -0.8%.

Awesome close...

my wish list is more BA, KO, SLW, IBKR, RIMM! I've sat on my hands after making terrible calls in the past month. But after yesterday's close, and today's close, I can't help but feel that we're testing a double bottom at 8500?

Let's see what MSFT says!

Interesting watching the Market vs. USD action.

wow - did we just triple bottom the 1 month chart?

net.fishing:

what else is there to say...

I think in a year or two we should all, as much as possible just get together, have some beers

and laugh

laughter is the best thing to say, and I plan on laughing a lot in retrospect in a year or you with many friend from here.

We could arrange meetings arcoss the world timed to happen at the same moment and hold a glass up in cheers to Bill, each other, our hearts and our brave futures!

How is that for a vision to keep us going strong as we are tempered ,grow and become more in just being ourselves

Cheers, my friends, back to my back yard volcano and day to day helping biz...

vinod- sorry to hear that..

I wonder if we should start printing these charts and saving them for future collectible relics to sell to the next generation on ebay?

QT
'This guy offers a month freebie... check it out..'
Do you or have you used this guy?

excuse my bad English and grammar, in my last posts. English is only my first language... :) Just a bit rushed in my thinking at the moment...

so it goes in our dance of typing fingers. Peace to all and take care tonight.

Didn't get $30 bid on QQQQ. Maybe tomorrow.

"The cash settlement date for WaMu's credit default swaps is Nov. 7th. Around that day, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which handles the settlement of these trades, may issue a dollar figure on the payments made by net sellers of the credit default swaps to the net buyers of these contracts. The DTCC has yet to determine if it will make these figures public."

http://tinyurl.com/58u8yp

Of course, why would the public need to know anything about capital markets? could get dangerous...

Next time somebody quotes you $53 trillion number...

"Industry experts downplay the use of notional numbers to describe the CDS market, maintaining they do not provide an accurate view of the money that is at risk.

With the notional amount being the face value of total contracts outstanding, it does not take into account the fact that a majority of these contracts cancel each other out because sellers of protection usually hedge their bets by buying protection.

The notional number also does not take into account marks a buyer or seller may have taken on a CDS as the value fluctuated, or collateral put aside to cover their CDS holdings. "

Casey Kochmer... here's to ya buddy... cheers to that thought.

MSFT moving in AH

net.fishing- you have the right idea...i'm certainly memorializing as much as i can to pass on to my kids...

there must be at least one enterprising writer on the blog (maybe one of bill's editors) able to condense the discourse into a real-time perspective on the '08 crash...

I'd speculate to say that if you we're a recovering alcholic and in AA you would not want to be doing this at this point in history. Just a thought as I was thinking of the "bottle".

Exciting ride today...

Bears and Bulls still fighting a good fight...

I believe the Bears will ultimately fall.....
Bulls will win but with a lasting disfigurement

SV

vinod
Sorry to hear . . . hope your work position is solid.

2nd
good idea on condensing the discourse . . . it's a work in human psychology.

WaMu bonds selling for 57 cents on the dollar:

http://tinyurl.com/5p8uzn

2nd_ave

You know, seriously I use to resd and study with amazement the happenings and events that led up to the crash of 29... not ever even imagining that I would actually experience the equivelant or perhaps worse after adjusting this one inflation.

being in AA (Alcoa) makes me thinks of the bottle often!

BC

Reuters) — Brunswick Corp., the world's largest maker of recreational boats, said on Thursday its quarterly loss ballooned as the collapse in credit markets and precipitous decline in stock prices made it hard for consumers worldwide to contemplate — let alone finance — the purchase of its pricey products.

The company, which makes boats sold under three dozen brand names, including Hatteras and Sea Ray, reported a third-quarter loss from continuing operations of $591.4 million, or $6.70 a share, compared with a loss of $23.7 million, or 27 cents a share last year.

Sales fell 22 percent to $1 billion.

the stories will arrive soon enough...i met two out-of-work parents at a birthday party for my six-year-old last weekend (for them it hasn't really sunk in yet)...together with vinod's comments about deleting logons, it just emphasizes how forward-looking stock market prices are...by the time severance packages/unemployment benefits run out and their stories hit the news, the market will (hopefully) be well on its way to recovery...

2nd_ave

True... Mr. Market has known this was going on for the better part of a year now... and in the future rest assured that I along with a least a few others will be paying just a wee bit more attention to what Mr. Market is attempting to say about the "real" future of the markets...

Magazine cover indicator

Economist

"What will happen to the emerging economies?"

Finally a discussion of currency collapses around the world:

"The Dollar's put on 30% vs. the Mexican Peso since the summer; it's gained one-third from its floor versus even sensible things like the Canadian Loonie and Aussie Dollar. Together with the continued shutdown in credit, the pace and breadth of this bounce is quite literally destroying the global economy. Industrial production is collapsing in the US, Germany and Japan; the failure rate for small UK businesses has risen seven times over since summer '07. And the strong Dollar is also destroying everyone's pension as well, just as surely as the banking collapse devoured mom 'n' pop savers during the '30s depression."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-11648.htm

Hi All - In a 136k account today of some 30 issues it was a good day -- up $6.41 -- Sure beats some of the other recent closes. Happy Trading

one of my older son's cousins, a sophomore at a local university and as of now planning on a major in business/finance, was recently encouraged by the school to find another major...

2nd_ave

And truley in a socialist society (after the gov completes the ongoing nationalization process, GM anybody) there is really no demand for us business majors... my skills will be out the window as well... we'll all be viewed at 1.50 per hour labor. At least we won't have to think and stress over the markets anymore...

sv

Buying BNS in 2003 @ 33 pre the 2:1 split in Apr 2004 then selling at 54 in 2006 was a mighty fine trade, if I understand you. However, buying today's split 39 is the pre-split equivalent of $78 and I am not confident that the 5% yield is sustainable going forward. Perhaps there will be an opportunity to double down at 30 where profitability may relate to 2003-2004 prices at that time. As long as the Governor of the Bank of Canada ( another GS boy ) is talking "fundamentally sound" about CDN banks and yet sees the need to lend them $billions I remain extremely cautious as a long term investor in this sector.

"recently encouraged by the school to find another major..."

Though to be honest I find schools pretty poor at orienting people to jobs they will love. If the kid loves finance for finance's sake and he's good at it, then why not.

And the major is BUSINESS/finance - last I checked there's still a dire need for good business managers especially in a tight economy.

The talking heads in finance and Washington are all shocked.

They are shocked that a system that rewarded the lowlife running hedge funds on short term profits, without regard for long term viability and risk.

So Greenspan the pinhead, asks why such smart people bought such crappy paper.

Because they were running a Ponzi scheme and thats how they took the money and ran. Supposedly legal. I really don't think it was legal, but our system is emasculated and doesn't have the horns to claw back those ill gotten gains.

1.50? that's more like it..i always thought order takers at fast food restaurants deserved to be paid more for the crap they have to take carrying out orders from MBA 'strategists' with no experience beyond that which money can buy....

It wasn't exactly what you would call a 'Ponzi' scheme, but a scheme with which to siphon a significant percentage of money out of markets and used to bet on anything that moved.

This market posses strong similarities to the LTCM systematic bet, except that it was revamped and globalized across all markets and all currencies.

Well maybe there's still hope then... check MCD results today... fast food bus in this enviornment is apparently holding up pretty well.

Two 5% swings in a single day - I'm exhausted. I'm think I'll go put a fast 10 miles in on the bike, for a much healthier form of exhaustion.

Gosh all this Great Depression talk again. It ain't happening, at least not yet. And things aren't the same.

- Dow Jones ran up 500% in ten years prior to the depression -we ran up 30% in the same amount of time
- No FDIC, no Fed, nothing back then. Pure laissez-faire.
- Bernanke studied the great depression for years. You and I may not agree with his methods, but let's give the guy a chance, really. He's doing the best he can, and it would be arrogant for almost anyone here to pretend they know more about the great depression than he does.
- 25% unemployment in the GD. Now we're running scared with 7%. I mean, let's stop acting like we're there yet.
- The Fed and government has done more in three months to help things along then Roosevelt did in ten years. There was no such thing as "coordinated worldwide action" back then.

I'm no economist, and no specialist in the GD. But I don't see a point in tiring myself out trying to predict something I really don't know about.

I'm willing to bet one thing, though. Say, for whatever stupid reason, we finally rally 30% at some point (in a manner that makes it possible for most people to participate, i.e. not a frustrating up +15% in a row, down -30% affair). Then I bet you 100$ all the GD will be way more muted. Will the risks of GD be less important? Well, of course not. But just because some market ticker is showing a bigger number our funny primate brains will somehow convince ourselves that maybe things will be alright in the end.

We can do that now without the bigger number imho and skip all the anxiety :-P.

"I bet you 100$ all the GD will be way more muted. "
I meant the GD TALK in the sentence above.

if it was in fact a Ponzi scheme, then all it takes is conviction...freezing and confiscation of assets is not unheard of with ill-gotten gains associated with other felonies..it may be more difficult to track well-hidden assets, but you really only to 'turn' one or two in the organization to uncover the wealth...

"Well maybe there's still hope then... check MCD results today... fast food bus in this enviornment is apparently holding up pretty well."

It would seem most earnings are actually not too shabby.

An imaginary depression is way more dangerous to financial markets than a real recession.

Muzie

You're reading to much into the comments... just a comparison in terms of percentage to the downside was inferred... I'm in your court on the rest.

The hard thing to wrap your head around is that people are still going to work and the essentials in the economy such are food production, utilities, and such are relatively untouched. The collapses are in the financial sector.

We see an expception in the oil price bubble mania blowout this time around, because it ran up some 1400% from its low in less than 10 years. I believe the chronic problems will show up in sectors affected by speculations tied to CDO's.

It was all based on exponential expansion of credit required in the LTCM-like scheme.

Depression and deflation are two different things, because you can have increases in money supply at the same time as a deflation in credit. But any money thrown at the system will just *poof* out of existence, because I believe the amount of money required exceeds world GDP by several times.

In retrospect, its seems no coincidence that our market lows thus far have come on 10/10 (Lehman CDS settle) and 10/23 (WAMU CDS settle).........

Perhaps too many people took the contrarian of contrarian view...........assuming that all cash preparation were made very far ahead of time.......when in fact, the things we thought were in the rearview were much closer than they appeared?

Well just the $ amount that has been vaproized out of the equity markets in the past month alone is enough to have a reverse "wealth effect" with consumer confidence and habits going forward at least in the near term.

Sundance- maybe so..'views' are easily distorted and/or misread...actions are less easily distorted-> there has been massive liquidation, and if one is to buy weakness, then buying here is difficult not to call contrarian...

Thanks Bill - I more than appreciate your time and input in regards to answering my earlier EWT question.....

DOW and S&P closed above the October low.

But, closing lows today on Russell 2000, Wilshire 5000, and NASDAQ Composite were each below their October 9th lows. Dow Transports closed below previous low yesterday and was lower today.

Muzie, I think the legislation creating the Fed was passed in Dec 1913. Generally considered to be responsible for excess credit creation in the 1920s, leading to the stock market bubble that led to the inevitable collapse. Same song, main difference being gold standard then, no standard now.

Also, as I scrape for a bit of optmism......the indices held their 10/10 lows today, DESPITE the $USD being up around 5% since 10/10........

Perhaps Hanky has gotten word that the boys at GS are done squeezing the CDS sellers to death and he can safely reverse the rise in $USD out of ludicrous speed............

cyderman: that's right, I stand corrected.

"Well just the $ amount that has been vaproized out of the equity markets in the past month alone is enough to have a reverse "wealth effect" with consumer confidence and habits going forward at least in the near term."

It can go both ways.

In my case, I am fully long but will not save more to invest for now. With all the gyrations about inflation/deflation and what not, I actually plan to spend more so that I can enjoy my earnings now rather than invest/save and then see the money disappear due to factors beyond my control.

You might want to check the this... but I'm wondering if Greenspan was the chairman prior to 29?? He's gotta really be at least 125 and everything else fits...

"POT 68.49, +1.39, +2.1%) (CA:POT: news, chart, profile) said its third-quarter net income surged to $1.24 billion, or $3.93 a share, from $243 million, or 75 cents a share. Sales jumped to $3.06 billion from $1.3 billion."

I mean wow, just wow. I don't have any - but this company TRIPLED its income and earnings and all it gets is a lousy 2% pop, amidst a 8% down week. Was pretty frothy at 240$ a share but now it can' even muster 70$.

People are crazy :-P.

Don't miss this one... check out the chart of the day here:

http://tinyurl.com/6m75fm

I scalped a couple of beans on AEM thanks to BSI alert, in the course of my workday. Thanks BSI. Ended the day averaging down into G.TO. I watched my other holdings fall. Yes these days are nerve-racking. It's affecting me physically.

Interesting points made re: Re-testing the lows.

Kevin Depew http://tinyurl.com/5q9g8d

"The reality we have to accept is that stocks are being dominated by two forces that the vast majority of traders and investors
can't easily see: 1) increasingly wide coprorate bond spreads, and 2) forced selling.

I'm a betting man, and my bet is we need to see a move below the recent intraday low of 839 on the S&P 500 to cause the kind of eye-scratching fear that accompanies significant lows.

At that point, we can begin to think about fading the consensus opinion that everything is permanently doomed.

Big board swings 600 while layoffs mount and once grand businesses falter... doesn't inspire my confidence but I'm sticking with it for better or for worse, till death do us part. Pray to God the corruption is exposed and appropriately dealt with...

TerryC

I have been an investor in Canadian Banks since 1990 and never lost money with them...never say never with how the markets are today(cautious) when I do buy I don't take a full position if Bank of Nova Scotia does goes down I will add to my position...I believe they are on the hunt for some good assets in the United States which will add to the bottom line and pay me in the future

I have patience

SV

yvrapx

I did the 1 month free trial then took a 5 mo subscription for $99. Because of it, I had set up a trade of a "100 generations", shorting the NASD & Russel 2000 at the end of Aug, which in the end I blew big time. Try it for free for the one month. It makes interesting reading. At least I think so.

I've been pretty much out of the blog for the day, hosting 2 days open house in my chat room. Just now going over posts, saw Finger Lakes's post of 2:23 PM.

FL, thank you. I am glad to see I am not the only one who wondered about that. Never understood how Ayn Rand's philosophy could be a fit for Greenspan and his actions. Whatever his ideals and aspirations were in early years of his career, his course in at least last decade as a Fed Chairman just doesn't go along with that. Nonetheless, here is how the story goes, according to Wikipedia:

"During the 1950s and 1960s Greenspan was a proponent of Ayn Rand's philosophy, writing articles for Objectivist newsletters and contributing several essays for Rand's 1966 book Capitalism: the Unknown Ideal including an essay supporting the gold standard.

During the 1950s, Greenspan was one of the members of Ayn Rand's inner circle, the Ayn Rand Collective, who read Atlas Shrugged while it was being written. Rand nicknamed Greenspan "the undertaker" because of his penchant for dark clothing and reserved demeanor. Although Greenspan continues to advocate laissez-faire capitalism, some Objectivists find his support for a gold standard somewhat incongruous or dubious, given the Federal Reserve's role in America's fiat money system and endogenous inflation. He has come under criticism from Harry Binswanger,[who believes his actions while at work for the Federal Reserve and his publicly expressed opinions on other issues show abandonment of Objectivist and free market principles. However, when questioned in relation to this, he has said that in a democratic society individuals have to make compromises with each other over conflicting ideas of how money should be handled. He said he himself had to make such compromises, because he actually believes that "we did extremely well" without a central bank and with a gold standard. Greenspan and Rand maintained a close relationship until her death in 1982."

There are so many analogies between the Atlas Shrugged story and what happened during housing bubble creation, it's almost scary.

QT - Thanks for the link!

Re: Fearful Symmetry

I don't know if everyone is familiar with William Blake and his poem 'Fearful Symmetry'. but talk about a freak trade matching a chart from history:

CDN/¥

http://tinyurl.com/4rzkde

1929 Bond Market Crash (Café Americain)

http://tinyurl.com/6nh3yr

Sorry, not to worry, that's a quote from William Blake, and a token of literature from Northrop Frye.

Poem is here:

http://www.bartleby.com/101/489.html

Just when I thought we couldn't be worse off with Greenspan, we got Paulson. Good grief Charlie Brown! If Obama, who'll be next. Makes my knees shake.

while i am being constructive in terms of the market and went long about 2 weeks ago, i would like people to keep the following stats from the depression in mind because a lot of people point to the rate of unemployment now versus what it was then and say there is no comparison:

1929 Unemployment: 3.2 percent
1930 Unemployment: 8.7 percent
1931 Unemployment: 15.9 percent
1932 Unemployment: 23.6 percent
1933 Unemployment: 24.9 percent
1934 Unemployment: 21.7 percent
1935 Unemployment: 20.1 percent
1936 Unemployment: 16.9 percent
1937 Unemployment: 14.3 percent
1938 Unemployment: 19.0 percent

GDP was all over the map:
1930: -9.4%
1931: -8.5%
1932: -13.4%
1933: -2.1%
1934: +7.7%
1935: +8.1%
1936: +14.1%
1937: +5.0%
1938: -4.5%

Some important things to note:
1930: Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon announces that the Fed will stand by as the market works itself out: "Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate real estate… values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wreck from less-competent people."

1931: no major legislation was passed to deal with the Depression

1932: by this year 40% of banks from 1929 failed; money supply contracted by 31%; Fed made first major expansion of money supply since Feb 1930; Congress passed RFC; top tax rate was **RAISED** from 25% to 63%

1933: Alarmed by Roosevelt's plan to redistribute wealth from the rich to the poor (**ala Obama???**), a group of millionaire businessmen, led by the Du Pont and J.P. Morgan empires, plans to overthrow Roosevelt with a military coup and install a fascist government. The businessmen try to recruit General Smedley Butler, promising him an army of 500,000, unlimited financial backing and generous media spin control. The plot is foiled when Butler reports it to Congress.
-U.S. goes off gold standard
-Roosevelt did much to redistribute wealth from the rich to the poor and was obsessed with a balanced budget. He later rejects Keynes' advice to begin heavy deficit spending.

1934: Sweden became the first nation to recover fully from the Great Depression. It followed a policy of Keynesian deficit spending. Sweden's quick recovery was astonishing. By 1934, real output had recovered to 1929 levels. By 1935, it was 7 percent above it. Growth would continue well into World War II.

Sweden's success owed everything to its liberal government. In 1932, Labor returned to power. The Swedish Finance Minister was heavily influenced by a group of economists led by Gunnar Myrdal, who had been advocating Keynesian-like solutions for years. The Labor government promptly ran large deficits, and within two years had spent itself out of the Depression.

1936: top tax rate was raised to 79%; Germany becomes the second nation to recover fully from the Great Depression, through heavy deficit spending in preparation for war

1937: Economists attributed economic growth to that point to heavy government spending that was somewhat deficit. Roosevelt, however, feared an unbalanced budget and cut spending for 1937. That summer, the nation plunged into another recession. Despite this, the yearly GNP rises 5.0 percent, and unemployment falls to 14.3 percent.

1938: Britain becomes the third nation to recover as it begins deficit spending in preparation for war.

Who's buying?

I'm curious, if intstitutional investors & hedge funds make up something on the order of 70% of the market, and both have been under pressure due to redemptions, who's buying?

Not a call on market direction, I'm just curious how the money that's been pulled is being replinished... or is it?

People, you're being silly.

All I see is Obama sitting at financial summits and such with Paul Volcker.

I think that speaks volumes and I will sleep MUCH better if Volcker is our new Treasury Secretary.

The rest of the talk is goofy politics and fear mongering. Afterall, haven't we lived through years and years of "income re-distribution"?
That's what tax cuts for the top 2% was. Even Bill Gates and Warren Buffett say so, and they are certainly in the top 2%....
Obama if elected will have more than checks and balances. Both candidates would be hemmed in by more than constitutional checks and balances.
All those checks and no balance....

Craig,
I don't remember having good memories of the Volcker era. Wasn't he an inflation fighter? In other words, average Americans got hurt with the higher interest rates that he delved out for years. People with money were OK with it because they made alot of money on their T-bills.

Hedge fund liquidations: According to Scott Gurvey, there are approximately 10,000 hedge funds, of which 1/3 are expected to liquidate (This year?). November 30th is year end for many of these funds.

This indicates we should be expecting continued liquidation, peaking as end of November approaches.

stktrader - Paul Volker WAS an inflation fighter, he was known for his prescription of some potent medicine for fighting double-digit inflation of the period.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Volcker

I recall as Greenspan was leaving office his saying (admitting?) to beware of a housing bubble.

Sorry if I'm late to the party, but I just realized that the short sale ban a few weeks ago had nothing to do with legitimate short sellers. It was all about naked shorters.

The powers that be won't ever admit it, but I think that was the point. If this is so obvious as to not warrant mention, well, I said I was late to the party. ;-)

Real Silver Pricing. I just got an excited e-mail from Apmex, with 80,000 oz of Perth Mint coins. Their best price/oz was for Kilo coins, working out to 13.07/OZ. The spot price is $10. People with real silver are not just not selling it at spot prices. The question needs to be, why is the silver spot at $10, when the street price is clearly higher?

RE:Posted by Vadym Graifer at October 23, 2008 6:41 PM

world
Heavy on your shoulders
Hell
Your ball and chain
At last shrug
The world to turn around
Heaven is behind
from where you came
key to ball and chain
and journeys end.

11/24/00 bmotee

Question for board:

Have past recessions invoked the comparison to the Great Depression as much as this one has?

WPeyton - if you go to CNI or Kitco websites you can still order comex size 1000oz silver bars with reasonable premium. But there is a clear shortage of retail sized PM.

USD gaining strength & Asian markets plummeting.

The engineering tools to keep the financial system stable have been there all a long.

Nobody (in power, that is) wanted to use them, that would have spoiled the fun.

___________________________________________

Alan Greenspan gave Congressional testimony today on the causes of the
current economic recession:

http://tinyurl.com/62n2tf

and is interesting because, in his opinion, one of the major causes
was inaccurate risk models.

A lot of work went into the risk models of the "Quantitative Analysis
of Non-Linear High Entropy Economic Systems," series of articles-more
than half of the article's text is dedicated to evaluation of
financial risk. Of particular interest is:

http://tinyurl.com/6ceo4h

which explains the log-normal distribution of system evolution in
financial time series, and:

http://tinyurl.com/6ctajy

which uses the Laplacian distribution of the marginal increments for
assessment of financial risk.

Most prevailing models use a normal/Gaussian distribution for both,
which can lead to substantial errors in the evaluation of risk over
extended time intervals. These errors, coupled with inadequate data
set sizes, probably mislead the financial industry into a very
optimistic assessment of systemic risk exposure, (which took down
LTCM, a decade earlier, too.)

John

--

John Conover, john@johncon.com, http://www.johncon.com/

Where's all that "cash on the sidelines"?

Investors Are Selling Their Mutual Funds at Record Speed

http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/081023/259687.html

. . .
Lots of Redemptions and Little Cash
Many funds are carrying a small amount of cash and, at the same time, facing large shareholder redemptions. The average domestic equity fund held just less than 5% in cash as of its most recently disclosed portfolio. That means that they have little dry powder sitting around on the sidelines with which to buy depressed securities and meet redemptions.

. . .

If anyone has advice on Canadian bankruptcy and how one can best prepare for it,this would be much appreciated. I suppose speaking with a trustee is where to start? Would you just pick one out of the yellow pages? I don't see any way out at this point.
tia

ALOHA !!

Bernanke masters failure! I didn't know you needed a PhD for that!!

READ ON:
Friday, October 24, 2008

How's That Working Out?

"I feel reasonably confident that we'll be able to recover all the principal and indeed some interest, and there is some chance of even upside beyond that."

-Ben Bernanke, Congressional testimony, 4/2/08

A Bear Stearns mortgage portfolio backed by the U.S. government racked up $2.7 billion of losses in the third quarter, amounting to a 9 percent decline on about $30 billion of assets, the Federal Reserve said Thursday. Roughly $2 billion of those losses will be borne by the U.S. taxpayer. As of the end of September, the portfolio, originally worth about $30 billion, was worth $26.8 billion.

-Reuters 10/23/08

posted by The Cunning Realist

now these I've never seen:

S&P 500 contract halted limit down. The drop on the S&P 500 contract was so much that it triggered a halt in electronic trading.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stock-futures-blasted-after/story.aspx?guid={C3EECFD2-9B1D-4B8F-B940-CC65DA05D05C}

ALOHA!!

When does the the bank holiday start?

S&P 500 futures reach limit down in electronic trade
By Steve Goldstein
Last update: 6:28 a.m. EDT Oct. 24, 2008Comments: 1
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- S&P 500 futures reached limit down in electronic trade on Friday, meaning that they can't fall beyond 60 points until the pits open at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. The contract, however, still can be traded. The limit on Nasdaq 100 futures is 85 points and the limit on Dow Jones Industrial Average futures is 550 points; both contracts were trading just above those thresholds.

The official limit rules (PDF): http://tinyurl.com/2l2wk6

Volvo (trucks) 3Q report:
near zero European orders.

They received 20,000 orders during 3Q 2008, but most were later canceled.
Customers are saying they do not know if they can get credit.

3Q 2008 orders: 115
3Q 2007 orders: 41,917

2Q 2008 was a record in both orders & profits.

VOLVB down over - 20% today, Swedish bourse down - 8%.

Sweden is by the way planning on creating jobs in western Sweden by prioritizing the building of wind turbines there.
This has been in the pipeline anyway to make Sweden independent of imported energy.
Western Sweden around Gothenburg is where Volvo trucks, Volvo cars and Saab all are firing workers en masse.

Swedes did good selling Volvo (cars) and Saab (cars) to Ford & GM back when
times were better.
Now maybe Sweden gets what's left back for free?

(Volvo trucks is a separate company.)

"Limit Down" is the maximum price the market may move down in a given trading day from the previous days settlement price. Trading can occur at or above that price but not below it. "Locked Limit Down" refers to a condition when there are no bids at the limit down price, only offers to sell. If you are short, you'll like it. But if you are long, you won't be able to liquidate your position unless the market trades off the limit. To sell, there has to be a buyer. When there are no bids, that mean no buyers are present. /The Complete Guide to Technical Trading Tactics

thanks TradersQuest - was looking for that...

http://tinyurl.com/5gb7kz

Aw, c'mon. It could be a lot worse. You could be GENE EPSTEIN or DONALD LUSKIN or LARRY KUDLOW.

ALOHA !!

GOLD ON TOCOM
Goldman Sachs is now net long again gold on the TOCOM by 543 contracts. The biggest margin in 30 months for a total of nearly 3,000 long! Last time they were net long by only 28 contracts. In fact now Goldman Sachs is joined by Mitsubishi in the net long side and Mitsubishi is even net long by a much wider margin than Goldman. The other major shorts on the TOCOM have all reduced their net short substantially!

Re: Gold's Inverse Correlation With The Dollar

It looks as if gold prices have given up and bullion gets flushed with the rest. Gold prices are now 'caught up' with the declines in Oil and Copper:

stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/5n3fo7

There was a 5% move in the Yen against all currencies and a 164 basis point move in the $US overnight.

TBAR
Check out this link.I sure hope u dont need it.good luck.
http://tinyurl.com/5mhzjs

sticking in some close - 3 x 10 day ATR bids for ETF's.

How do we invest at this point. I have been saving cash for a time like this. Any ideas of how to deploy the cash? At the open or wait for better prices? Thanks.

Craig,

Volcker raised rates too much in the 80's to fight inflation did he not? I will not sleep better with Obama taxing and spending my hard earned mney for what? If you Google "New Party" and Obama, Obama was part of a Socialist party in Chicago in the 90's -

Hmmm - a panic drop on the S&P, GolmanSucks net long on Gold, $US Dollar at a monthly hiHi peak in Oct (which is often followed by lower prices through Nov and Dec).

What does it mean? Personally, I think it means that we get a major rate cut either by "surprise" or next week or both. Then, the Dollar will drop, Oil will rise, and the S&P will be saved just in time for the election (and for bonuses).

Not trading advice.

Bruce,

stick in some bids well under current price, 2-3 X the 10 day ATR or at prices, you'd be delighted to own the shares.

How do we trade this? How about limit orders 20% or 30% less than yesterdays close on stock we want to own. Any ideas?

Bruce

Close - 2 or 3 X 10 day ATR's.

use stockcharts.com to find them.

GL.

GG @ 13.90 premarket - now thats getting tempting

Gold seems to be holding up ok relatively speaking this morning...

Anyone know off hand what their price for producing an ounce is?

[Bill Cara note:

GG was "tempting" at double the price. Now it's an outright steal. A quality goldminer like Goldcorp cannot, in the end, lose as long as reserves are building. If short-term prices fall below the cost to produce gold, which is now -- all in -- about $700, then production shuts down and the smaller negative cash flow companies, and the larger ones with debt on their balance sheets, will suffer and may even fail if the price stays down at that level too long. There are some analysts who opine that the price of gold could drop to 550, but if that were true (and it might yet happen) then Goldcorp would have its pick of the finest gold resources in the world, which it could buy out of receivership. So, hard times in the gold industry come and go and always the strongest miners get stronger at those times. Ultimately the gold price will soar because of the deflation-reflation fight that is underway today. Goldcorp will win on that score too, only sooner.]

Glad you're one of the ultra wealthy top 2% Rob.
Volcker did in fact raise rates to finally "whip inflation now", another rehab needed to cure the previous drinking binge.

THAT is why I would sleep well at night, he knows the real cure is in the supply of money.
Compare to today....

I don't believe everything I read on Google Rob.

How much more socialist can you get than nationalizing the banks? Give me a break. Reps already made us socialist, Obama is behind the curve.

Anyone that has index puts for insurance be sure to trail stops. Don't let this get away from you. Also remember you can always sell 1/2 if you aren't sure what to do. When this is over (and it will get over) there is going to be an IV suck that's awesome to behold. I'm going to sell puts today or Monday if I can find something I want to own for years, like XOM. The thing that worries me is all the talking heads saying this will be over by early next week.

Craig

Thought you would enjoy this. This speaks volumes about Obama supporters and the far left.

http://tinyurl.com/57b55c

bsi87 - "Close - 2 or 3 X 10 day ATR's.
use stockcharts.com to find them.'

Are you using Scan for this? How do you write the subtraction part into the scan?

tia

Spot,

Thanks for your comments.

While I have bought a bit recently — GG, XOM, DBA for the longer term — I'm super cautious right now. Even many of those analysts and talking heads who mean well, are simply giving reasons which amount to, "It's so much lower than before, it must be a good value."

They seem oblivious to the fact that even "good" companies can, and do, go to zero. (Been there.)

My biggest concern is what I see as total mismanagement of the financial crisis, (by some of the very individuals who created it) will drive — at least the U.S. — into a fear induced, jobs diminished and dollar evaporating depression.

If this is followed by a nationwide panic based "hold and save" replacing the prior "buy and spend" binge — it could lead to a depression. Many people I know have already lost the freedom to buy other than at Wal-Mart and this list is growing rapidly.

The saddest thing is that it doesn't have to be this way.

History has a way of repeating with enough similarities that recognizing past patterns gives humans the idea that they can manage it this time. It is the subtle differences which are the rub.

What could be a worse combination to deal with the problems today than a CEO (Paulson) who is used to unquestioned authority and a Ph.D (Bernanke) who long ago declared his "fool proof" plan to inflate away any problem? He has stated he'll do this using any means necessary ("Unconventional Measures") "Even if it "direct monetisation of goods and services."

http://tiny.cc/DgPQz

They need to restore confidence and trust in the system, but appear to know little of human nature. The answer is NOT handouts, but a hand up.

Grym- Your last sentence would make a great bumper sticker or campaign slogan. You are right on as usual.

CP,

My "all dollar support is appreciated" was a bit of unlabeled sarcasm.

I see it as simple human knee-jerk reaction. Not that those foreign countries are stupid, but typically human.

"It worked in the past, so we'd better do it again." :-)

Hulgar,

Thanks.

This is what I mean. I'm glad you included the link so we can read the last paragraphs.....

"Police have been questioning Todd because they said they've been having some conflicting reports about what happened.

The Obama-Biden campaign released a statement, commenting on the attack. The statement said, "Our thoughts and prayers are with the young woman for her to make a speedy recovery, and we hope that the person who perpetrated this crime is swiftly apprehended and brought to justice."

The McCain-Palin campaign also released a statement saying, "The McCain campaign is aware of the incident involving one of its volunteers. Out of respect, the campaign won't be commenting. The campaign also confirms that Senator McCain and Governor Palin have both spoken to the woman."

I'm encouraged that the campaigns have it in perspective and didn't characterize anyone in light of a crime.

I didn't read the words "far left" anywhere, but you knew that, right?

You see, I'm not a mugger, a criminal, or "far left".

Okay, I'm done for the day with political crap.
It just drives the post count and resolves nothing.

Also switching to decaf, this is already too exciting a day.....

re:10 day ATR

You can set it on the screen. I do not have scan capability.

Get the 10 day ATR to show the daily volatility and then I use Google to do the close - 3X 10 Day atr

Grym - Good thought and comment. I saw a headline comment (accuracy??) that said people were NOT (yet) returning to their gas guzzling ways inspite of significant gas price drops. This may be a new wrinkle for the PTB who may be counting on sheeple returning to consumerism. Job layoffs, pension scares, and bond defaults (Lehman) might indeed take us down a deep, dark and unplanned road.

Nonetheless, I think that if we get a "shock and awe" rate cut (internationally?), we will see the Dollar fall, Oil and S&P rise, until the first of the year. After that, maybe with the Presidential turnover, we might return to that deep, dark road into the hands of whatever goes bump in the night (how's that for a Halloween shadow?).

Good luck. Enjoy your posts.

bsi87 - Thanks. I will try something like that.

spot

They said the end of the carry trade would be ugly and here we are. The Japanese insurance companies are protecting themselves at all costs, selling anything remotely liquid.

How long before a wave of U.S. and Euro insurance companies announce their own liquidity crises?

Pension plans are toast, right?

I am going to trade all the way down ...
I capitulated on ESLR just 2 days ago, just bought back the shares pre-market at 2.09,
a 30%+ haircut.

Bill was right yesterday calling for a bank holiday. Unfortunately, Paulson has been shown an impotent self pleasuring tool by the Japanese.

Historians will chuckle at the Bush administration scheduling an economic summit weeks into the future whilst hundreds of millions see their economic lives destroyed.

gl.
I do not understand. 2 or 3 x 10 day ATR. What is that?