Since I got caboosed in the last thread:

Barry Ritholtz @ The Big Picture has a great debunking of the whole "affordable housing killed the system" argument. Greed and ineptness at various levels in the system fostered by deregulation is what caused this. NOT the desire for affordable housing.

http://tinyurl.com/4w263a

• Did the 1977 [CRA: Community Reinvestment Act] legislation, or any other legislation since, require banks to not verify income or payment history of mortgage applicants?

• 50% of subprime loans were made by mortgage service companies not subject comprehensive federal supervision; another 30% were made by banks or thrifts which are not subject to routine supervision or examinations. How was this caused by either CRA or GSEs ?

• What about "No Money Down" Mortgages (0% down payments) ? Were they required by the CRA? Fannie? Freddie?

• Explain the shift in Loan to value from 80% to 120%: What was it in the Act that changed this traditional lending requirement?

• Did any Federal legislation require real estate agents and mortgage writers to use the same corrupt appraisers again and again? How did they manage to always come in at exactly the purchase price, no matter what?

• Did the CRA require banks to develop automated underwriting (AU) systems that emphasized speed rather than accuracy in order to process the greatest number of mortgage apps as quickly as possible?

• How exactly did legislation force Moody's, S&Ps and Fitch to rate junk paper as Triple AAA?

• What about piggy back loans? Were banks required by Congress to lend the first mortgage and do a HELOC for the down payment -- at the same time?

• Internal bank memos showed employees how to cheat the system to get poor mortgages prospects approved that shouldn't have been: Titled How to Get an "Iffy" loan approved at JPM Chase. (Was circulating that memo also a FNM/FRE/CRA requirement?)

• The four biggest problem areas for housing (by price decreases) are: Phoenix, Arizona; Las Vegas, Nevada; Miami, Florida, and San Diego, California. Explain exactly how these affluent, non-minority regions were impacted by the Community Reinvesment Act ?

• Did the GSEs require banks to not check credit scores? Assets? Income?

• What was it about the CRA or GSEs that mandated fund managers load up on an investment product that was hard to value, thinly traded, and poorly understood

• What was it in the Act that forced banks to make "interest only" loans? Were "Neg Am loans" also part of the legislative requirements also?

• Consider this February 2003 speech by Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozlilo at the American Bankers National Real Estate Conference. He advocated zero down payment mortgages -- was that a CRA requirement too, or just a grab for more market share, and bad banking?

Well, Harry Truman didn't look qualified either.

[Bill Cara note:

Don't shoot the messenger. I was hoping Gov. Palin would be superb, but any objective person can see she's in way over her head. The polls will speak, and then Sen. McCain has a decision to make. If he doesn't make it, or if he lets her make it, then he is not deserving of the Presidency.]

Is RSI broken? There are way too many companies on that Daily Report list. :)

Do you suggest I invest if/when GE hits Warren's $18 strike price, to decrease my $33 cost basis?

http://tinyurl.com/3we7yw

Losing my faith that GE is one of the companies to watch and should not be on Cara 100. They have been in bed with Wall St. since they were founded.

http://tinyurl.com/8gvvk

Warren's basically playing the loan shark game right now. What I think he'll get is some ROC and then a tax loss if things do not go well for him. (and if he pays tax)

http://tinyurl.com/37njv5

Good morning.

One Cara 100 Ratings Change to report:

DIS - Stifel Nicolaus Initiates Coverage with a Hold.

----------------------------------------------------

QT said, "Seems like everything I buy these days gets downgraded then next day. WAG now TCK. It was so much easier when I was playing the market short."

I feel your pain, brother. Seems like the daze(sic) of printing money with QID and SKF are distant memories. Now that I'm long, instead of getting confirms from my broker, they send an email reading "You Can Bend Over Now". ;^)

Thanks Fatty, it's about time.

I'm glad to see 1/2 of my Senatorial delegation (Maria Cantwell) knows what's up. She's up for re-election, which I suspect is the case for the "D's" on the vote no list of heroes.

But, "The Mom in Roller skates" Patty Murray must feel safe....NOT!

Bull Hunter

LOL !

Don't forget FXP... she had some big mood swings.

Regarding the general topic of social equity and the current situation on Wall Street and in Washington, I think it is important to keep the history of the United States in mind. We have long been a nation of contradictions. From the nation's founding, we claimed all were created equal, but excluded women, slaves, and Native Americans. It took a while, but we have (mostly) gotten to the point where we are willing to include everyone in that statement. In a similar vein, the rise of the industrial economy was an exercise in worker exploitation and the rise of concentrated wealth. That tide also turned when workers had enough. Regardless of whether the current bill passes, I think we are at a turning point in our history where people have had enough. What we need now is new leadership, and that will slowly emerge from the current crop of citizens that feel disenfranchised by the current elite.

[Bill Cara note:

Well said!]

Thoughts on gold bullion? I'm flumexed to read that the wealthy are buying bullion like there's no tomorrow and that ordinary folks have to pay a premium for coins. The only thing I can think of that might explain this is that everything is being sold, including bullion, by hedge funds and others due to margin calls? Right now bullion is at $865 per ounce. Because the Euro is at 1.38 now, the daily chart for gold in euros looks much different. See www.bullionvault.com.

Wave,

U gotta reduce the list by looking at upside vs risk at least ST. I use max pain options to see if there's any upside pull.

getting pounded on my AA entry

[Bill Cara note:

I'm wondering why AA. AA, being aluminum, is a broad market laggard because traders usually wait to see improvement in the econ data. I didn't pick any metals in my 36 picks yesterday because I am still concerned about the economic data, at least for now. I know that previously I said I didn't think the golds would go higher until the metals did first, but I went back to the golds on a belief that the relief package vote would go through and, with reflation, the dollar come off, which would give a first leg up for gold. Depending on the econ data, good, bad or ugly, the first up-leg of the new Bull will be affected. So, if the econ data in the next month looks not too bad, I could see where the metals would also improve and that would give a second lift to the precious metals complex. At the end of the day, however, there will be a bail-out package that will bring back a lot of confidence to markets, and precious metals and later the metals will rally -- along with Energy.]

Craig,

I caught Maria Cantwell last night on C-SPAN when they were given their time before the vote. Her points were as spot on as I've heard from any politician in all of this mess.

Sadly, both of my senators from Ohio voted yes.

Warren Buffett----"(and if he pays tax)"

He pays 15% on his dividends like we here in the U.S. all do. Only difference, his dividend payments are a little more than the rest of us.

Bill,
Great post.

I would also add something at the grassroot level. There is no one who is interested in your well being as your self. How many people have been thinking of saving money/set aside money when the going has been good ?

How many people had thought 100 times before commiting to take on debt ?

Why do we have to wait till the lenders cannot lend any more ? Or our capacity to borrow is taken away ?

All,

My wifes 401k is parked in a product which is suppozedly safe.

I have tried to get details on where the money is invested. At least what the top 10 major investments are. But the question has been dodged for quite some time. Actually a very long time.

The prospectus is very vague. It does mention that the amount is guaranteed by full faith and credit of Prudential Insurance. ( if that can be termed a guarantee. Baah )

I want to approach someone /some authority to get Prudential to tell me where the funds are invested.

Can any suggest who we should contact ?

Yesterday's commentary: Bill is right on with his assessment, "Apparently there is no such thing as democracy either."

I just received/began reading his book and am happy to see we have many common life views. Independence in thought and action, financial no debt, and imagination (the two-edged sword of seeing the possibilites ahead).

A few things which have happened (been done to us) were apparent even to a non-economist like me. I have always told my sons —
Nobody cares about your money like you do.
and...
Always question everything.

I have written for years and received the typical form response letters from congress.

A couple of those topics:

The 401(k) replacement of the company pension is a convenient corporate relief act, not a gift to the employee. • It gets the retirement investing responsibility (and the blame) off company the books.
• It creates a whole new market of "lambs for slaughter" for Wall St. firms — mutual funds especially.

The move from manufacturing economy to service economy will come back to haunt us. (Ever seen a service at a garage sale?)NAFTA=Not A Fine Thing, America!

Today: This cry of "CRISIS!" is a perfect example of Hitler's Big Lie strategy — enhanced by instant communication and 24/7 gloabal, (mis)information capabilities.

The good news: If enough independent thinkers (like Bill) act in unison (not an oxymoronic act) we can prevent these bipartisan, anti-democratic charlatans from setting us up once again — if not today — in the next election... and the next.

Did anyone else catch Sen. Bernie Sanders comments during the bill debate?

He displayed large pictures of Hank and various CEO's of financial institutions while demanding that they pay for the bailout.

Priceless.

2nd,

Have you noticed the beakouts happening at or after the close?

Ambac...Freddie...NCC... they all rallied after the close yesterday and "rose" in the middle of the night..

Bill,

Great portfolio allocation and positioning for what is coming.

Absolutely superb.

You may get the shares put to you... but you have a cool strategy in that case.

Enjoy the beach.

Cheers!

[Bill Cara note:

Beach closed for thunderstorm. Rain being put to me. But this too shall pass. Strategy in place to go into the ocean later.]

If anyone is interested, here are Sen. Sanders' comments in video form:

http://tinyurl.com/4hsb6n

Bill:

Maybe one of those endless pools in your new digs?

[Bill Cara note:

There is only one pool where I live. But, with a thunderstorm, you can only wait it out. Just when things look darkest, I will be preparing for good times.]

Cara 100 Update:

AMAT - Target Price Lowered from $17 to $16 @ RBC

shark- i see it...can't explain it..

Catcus Jack Garner said the VP isn't worth a warm bucket of spit.

I'm not satisfied with anyone running for Pres/VP or darn near anything.

We get the govt we deserve.

Looking at starting a position in DELL,SLW,CAT,GE

100% cash for now. What is everyone else picking up today?

as per my comments last night,
gold right on que dumped hard into the market opening.

but the breach of $850 was brief and the price has bounced back to about $854. the only real bright spot i can come up w/ for gold at this point is that $850 may be the bottom of this corrective move in the face of extreme US dollar strength.

its funny because the EU held rates but the dollar zoomed. had they cut rates the rise in the USD would have been directly attributed to that move. whats the explanation now?

bsi87,

As a Texan, I can tell you that Garner's quote was "cleaned up" quite a bit. Still a great quote from a very interesting politician.

Got out of APWR for now. Too much of volatility.

What will be the impact of deflationary conditions on gold ?

Good morning - Decent entry point on POT this morning - added to my bag.

Definitely a soft opening! I'm kinda surprised but know I shouldn't be...

I've been buying a lot this week....still have about 25% powder dry.

I'm thinking I may wait until after the outcome of the House vote to put the rest to work.

Also, I'm trading in an IRA so I can't sell puts, otherwise I would use Bill's strategy for the remaining cash.

Bill,
I can't thank you enough for all the financial advice - I've learned a great deal and am sad to say I still have lots to learn.

On your escalating political rants, I still believe that if you don't vote in an election you aren't allowed to criticize the results.

Congrats on you're new residency in the Bahamas.

Is the woodshed available?

POT RSI 7 now 15. I'd wait for it to go below 10 or wait for 30. No man's land now.

Anybody wondering if the PPT switched teams and is selling to pressure the House?

Jock - thanks for the KRY comments yesterday...friend of mine works at a hedge fund that has a decent amount of KRY...they have boots on the ground there that claim Rusoro is actively working to wrestle the permit from them. Russian influence is definitely resurgent, but either way, the mine will open. It's just too damn big.

I think KRY diehards should look to RML.V to hedge the situation...are you listening russty1? Where did he go BTW??
And please, no more pixels on this damn company...there are plenty of other places to make and lose money out there!

Didja think you'd see North American Palladium at a buck dighty-five? People used to fight over these shares at 9 bucks.

And with the U.S going into hyperinflation, why shouldn't gold drop like a rock? This market don't make a lot of sense. I lost 250 bucks yesterday which is a big freaking loss for me. Today I lost 25 cents. Improvement.

ECA $57+ I can not believe I can buy it at this price.

Mr. Down Day!

What's up in Texas Chicken?

retesting the low on QQQQ...

Re: Deflation

They may well have avoided deflation with the inevitable passage of the bill, but they cannot avoid an inflationary recession. Some parts of the economy will work, but hindered by highly inflationary influxes of capital. At the same time, areas which had done well and passed through their bubble stage will not perform the same miracle.

The time to allow the banks to fail was in 2001. But with the terrorist attack, this was not likely to occur. Instead, the housing bubble/commodity bull was instituted. Now, citizens in every country of the world are conscripted into peremanent debt, which will increase year after year, bailout after bailout. Look to the Japanese economy, they are far along that road.

Having an "armageddon freakout" at every turn of the market will not assist in taking a calm, rational approach to investing. All of the shrill nutjob armageddonist websites will, in the end be proven wrong, if they haven't been already.

But that doesn't mean what is happening in the U.S. is right and good, or in G8 countries around the world. It only means the individual is more and more effaced and the encumbrances of the political class taking advantage of the situation comes all the more easily. But I don't think Wall St. has all of the wizards.

The revealling indicator is bond yields, or the short term discount rates. Following on a low yield environment should be a very firm price of gold with manic corrections. It might be the same for the oil price, but the jury is out at least until mid-October, or until long term technicals turn around.

A cogent short/medium/long term approach will work out here.

Here's a link to the bill the senate passed last night:

http://tinyurl.com/4utcew

Read the purpose of the bill on the 1st page.

FranSix,

There's one big difference between the US and Japan when comparing economies:

The Japanese were savers entering into their rough patch and are net-exporters. Americans are debtors heading into our rough patch and we are net-importers.

Dell making a lower price low while hrly MACD diverging.

buy limit 15.06/buy stop limit 15.44/15.45

CNW capitulation. Watching hourly MACD

do ur own homework.

"The Japanese were savers entering into their rough patch and are net-exporters. Americans are debtors heading into our rough patch and we are net-importers."

This is a paradigm which is false, and was promoted on Wall St. to sell to you the commodities bull.

RSI In scotttrade.

Can someone explain how to set RSI in Scottrade ?
For a 7 day RSI, what should be the smoothing period that I should set?

POT below 100, RSI 7 day 14.94.

Watching.

This looks like Paulson's final threat to the House before they let it drop 1000+ points.

We all know they will roll over and do his bidding and the extreme selling in commodities today just makes me more sure they'll lead the next Bull as the dollar is performing just as I expected. Now, I'm expecting the dollar to start crashing upon house approval.

I plan on buying GG and GDX today to round out my portfolio and then I'll sit back and let it all ride.

Rob.

My Jan 09 $37.5 and $40 strike puts that I sold on SU a month back are deep under...

Suncor is getting destroyed daily with the rapid drop in oil!

IWM OCT 67 straddle - out for small profit. At this point I would much rather sell volatility than buy it

Sandy,
It sounds like you're 401K is in the Prudential proprietary funds which could be anything.

Our 401K is through Nationwide and they offer us a list of funds that are real funds plus some proprietary ones. But if you read the fine print you see that Nationwide issues annuities to match the returns of the funds you choose. That way they can invest your money any way they like or just use your money for general corporate purposes as long as they give you the promised return on the fund you're supposed to be invested in.

These are the reasons we don't contribute to the 401K and instead have Roth Ira's. We are lucky that we don't have to worry about missing the match because the company throws some profit-sharing in there every year but with Nationwide hiding our money who knows where we're as likely to get anything out as we are from Social Security.

If your 401K is similar I would advise a similar strategy unless you really trust the health of Prudential.

Rob.

Bill I agree with your main thesis.

America will look at Sarah Palin and see two different things. Leftists and coastal types will see an intellectually vacuous striver who tried different things until something worked. It is a little weird that a former Ms. Alaska, best known for her flute playing (the brass band instrument) as well as her appearance in a swimsuit would make it to the governors office, but we've seen it before. Ventura. Schwartzenegger. More than any other office, governor is a popularity contest. In addition, critical thinkers will question her "family values" as it appeared that no one knew about her teenage daughter's pregnancy until it was too late and a lot of us question the values that got all of them so goshdarn pregnant in the first place, but anyway....

On the other hand, voters in the remote and uninteresting areas known to civilization as "flyover country" will see in Palin a successful, earnest and trustworthy woman, one who shares both their values as well as a "housewifey" countenance that will comfort them in a Francis McDormand sort of way. They will believe unquestionably that she has what it takes to be president.

When they say that there are 2 Americas Bill, they aren't kidding.

They used to refer to what's developed in the big office since Reagan as the "Imperial Presidency". These days it's more like a romper room for retards.

DE now RSI 7 day 15.11

Sandy - I got out of APWR yesterday. It's probably better to just wait for a bottom, huh?

With the jobs report due out tomorrow, is anyone buying anything?

GGP looks destined to fail.

long DELL 15.45

XLE broke down, next target major fib (50% retrace) @ 55.36.

Just got in, no time yet for anything else though mostly all puts is a good account these days - solid red everywhere I look except XLV, JNJ & PURE.(small position in PURE)

wow look at gold go into the.....yikes!

This keeps up you might have to wait till 2030 to break even in gold

FranSix,

An interesting approach we've undertaken, boldly asserting the truth or falsity of statements without backup data. So, to stop the errors of our ways, let's try this approach:

1. Americans have been living at record levels of consumer debt, ie: "borrowing from tomorrow to pay for yesterday:"

http://tinyurl.com/4pq66m

2. USA trade: We import a heck of a lot more than we sell abroad--try $60 Billion worth of a shortfall:

http://tinyurl.com/4s8b6w

3. Japanese Savings Rate: Has fluctuated between 5-10%, whereas Americans flop around between 0.1 and 0.2%; America has no "cushion" for hard times:

http://tinyurl.com/5gcoqe

4. Japan's Trade Surplus Has Been Falling, but as I said, it is still a "net-exporter":

http://tinyurl.com/4ds5zl

In sum, I find ample support to believe that looking to the Japanese economy will not give us a view as to what will happen here in America, today. As a nation, America saves less, spends more, and makes less abroad than Japan--then or now. But we each have to decide if this distinction actually makes a difference.

Anyone else hearing the siren call of PCU ?

Added to Alcoa.
Opened Valero Jan 2010 call with 25 strike.

Looked at Deere but its off some $21 (-33%) now over past 2 wks and looks more and more like a falling knife.

Nucor and Sunoco taking heavy hits.

Please tell me the relevance of asking Palin which newspapers she reads and which government regulation McCain has authored she agrees? Give me a break! It is once again an example of the MSM knocking down someone they are threatened by...IMO

Rob

Canadian Oil Sands SU and WAV.TO taking it on the chin today.

Shark - What's up? Chicken butt, that's what!!! $1.95... Went Bull way too early and now I'm catching hell. Ain't life a beach?

What I find fascinating ist he price of PL!!! No more than 6 months ago, it was more than double the price of gold. Today, it's about 15% more expensive.

If Platinum is also a precious metal, why is it not seen as a store of wealth these days? Does the lack of its use in jewelry making have an impact?

I suppose I could ask the same of Silver, even though it is far more widely used that Platinum.

Caught a bloody falling knife in DE/CAT/SGR/SU, yikes !

rob g - if you are going to be anywhere near responsible for making policy, you should have a clue about what policies have been in place, and whether or not they are successful.

should we stop teaching history too? the past doesn't matter, only the future does?

We had a President who does not read and "goes with his gut". How's that workin' out??

rob d

They're cooking Chicken today!

Big money seems hiding in the places they see as safe havens- large banks JPM, BAC, WFC, C, ans USB. I believe one important tell to an ensuing rally will be these aforementioned stocks being liquidated. It will a signal to get back in the market. FWIW, after disposing of some AEM around 66 (wasn't that just a few days ago?), am looking to buy it back around 48.5-49 a .786 retracement of the move from the September 10 low.

MOS - sold OCT 35 put. Looking for a scalp

Just bought DE @ $40.00

Waiting on CAT, SLW, GE, DIG to hit my prices...

Platinum - Catalytic crackers for gasoline automobiles... Titanium - Aircraft and space vehicles.

Keep in mind that it is still very early in the day, but if you are looking for deals on the CARA100, this may be useful.

http://nexalogic.com/cara100.html

Rob,

Don't you agree that it's nice if a president reads newspapers? Would we not be better off if Bush deigned to crack the Washington Post every once in a while? At least just to know what's going on? If Palin reads People Magazine religiously, wouldn't we want to know that? Tiger Beat?

QQQQ broke the major fib @ 37.38 for the second time, partly looks like it wants to rally, partly looking really heavy.

Usually the second break will also generate some sort of reaction / short covering rally at least.

But, if it can't make it back up - next major fib target 33.20.

IWM - below 65. heading for a quadruple low for 2008. Hmmmm... dumped that straddle too soon

Palin may not be qualified but many people can relate to her because of her "real-world life". Most people I talk to understand she may not be the most savvy but they identify with her and the more the media attacks her it makes them like her more.

It will be very interesting to see how she does tonight.

I really think people vote for President more on looks and likability than qualifications.

They're all bought and paid for anyway unless their name is Ron Paul or Richard Shelby so does it really matter in the end who gets it?

Rob.

FWIW. It appears that the Triple RSI buy signal (RSI 7 trades above 30) is not holding. On the other hand, the RSI capitulation signal (RSI 7 day <10) is working. Then wait for the hourly MACD to diverge. And that there is sufficient upside to take on the trade. Many stocks I have examined are not showing much upside on the Nov max pain.

I think POT get the margin call today. Someone has to jump out of the building today.

I always enjoy BBQ chicken:)

this market is getting REAL nasty

They're really trying to scare us out of commodities today.

So, I picked up some GG and more SLW!!

Rob.

[Bill Cara note:

When is the vote? If it's not too late in the day Friday, and the Jobs data looks ugly, this market could go to a new cycle low in the morning tomorrow, possibly this afternoon.]

There must still be some hold-outs in the House so Paulson's twisting some arms.

Rob.

SLW is a yoyo here! I picked up yesterday at 8.30, closed nicely, but saw this mornings mess and tried to unload at 8.20 in premarket.

Eventually got out at 7.70! I`m going to wait and see what happens with the commodities until 1PM and decide if I want to go back into SLW today.

picked up a little ambac on the drop it's profitable

"We had a President who does not read and "goes with his gut". How's that workin' out??"

The problem Americans have is their representatives are all bought and paid for. Name me one in mainstream who isn't.

Pointing fingers won't remedy the situation, we've been lied to for so long we don't trust anything anyone says. Since we can no longer trust face value, the minute subject detail is necessary from here forward until trust can be re-established. It appears the only thing that might solve our problems is revolt. The sooner, the better.

POT - Added earlier today @ ~101 and again at ~97 - nice thing when i first picked it up in early 2005 it didn't have much of a P/E. Have fun today - from flyover land w/daily deliviery of the NYT, leavened by a good dose of FOX in PM. I have liked Palin since I picked up on her international foray with TRP -bot that one too.

wow

tsx down almost 700 points

some great buys today agu, pot,eca su,cnq

sv

Finger Lakes

"I picked up some GG and more SLW!!"

DITTO.... I just hope they have a "floor" below them.

I would kill to see some green lights on my screen for a change.

BA at new 52 week low

Smoked POT (Potash Corp.)

I wonder how many here ask for the proper reading material to trade/invest? Clearly what one reads indicates their choices in reading material, interests, leanings. Otherwise we would see recommendations for our favorite CNBC host's books....right?

*Everyone* would read the NY Times with the same interest and expectation as The Christian Science Monitor!

The question from Katie Couric was a good one and questioning questions is rediculous. We are talking about the highest offices in the land after 8 years of readerless less than questioning ideological failure .

Reading matters. Worldliness matters. An accurate BIG PICTURE matters. Knowledge of science matters.

Turns out, a fully functioning BS meter matters, and should max out when Gov. Palin attempts to answer important questions.

We already had the President who is just like middle America and that regular people want to have a beer and ribs with.

If you touch a hot stove twice you deserve what you get.

Craig,
I doubt you can call Bush just like regular America. He's more like a trust fund kid or a member of a royal family.

Maybe you're talking about Clinton though and he did seem like a regular guy that you could have a beer and a Big Mac with.

Rob.

This morning has been an all out massacre in commodities. The extreme lack of liquidity in the markets we are seeing is amazing.

Logically, these kind of market conditions seem to be the making of a lack of supply down the road. Many good gold/silver mine projects that are fully permitted and ready to go are having their timelines pushed back everyday. Same concepts apply to new oil projects and natty gas. I hope someone is buying oil for the strategic reserves now.

Its making sense to me why new uplegs in commodity prices are usually preceeded by extreme downward movement. Future supply is on the ground getting kicked in the face as we speak.

I hope everyone is surviving the capitulation this morning. There are excellent deals beggin to be bought right here.

These are fine days to lay in some long dated call spreads on gold and silver futures.

Pricing same.

Seriously, do you think a rate cut in the us and/or europe is not coming? The only question is if it comes before or after we break down through Dow 10K.

We might go into the weekend with no "resolution". They've spent entirely too much time sitting on their hands, and aren't displaying any comprehension, let alone progress. They're all fired!

QT,
Since I've taken the long-term view of things, I'm pretty much in it for the long haul now. I'm along the lines of thinking in 2nd's post from a few days ago.

It went something like if we drop 10-20% from here but missed the 30-40% drop the buy-and-holders are suffering then they'll be down 50-60% and we'll only be down 10-20%.

I like those odds and plan on sitting tight and letting the drama play out.

I do plan on buying some GDX later today or tomorrow AM as I heard the vote was scheduled for the afternoon but would be delayed until after the close if they couldn't rustle up the necessary votes.

Rob.

Agreed Rob, but Rove *sold* him exactly like they're trying to package her, as a "regular person, "just like me" who you want over for dinner or to a BBQ.....which immediately disqualifies her if I'm honest about my own abilities.

She is shockingly unqualified, and it says nothing for American politics or what politicians think of the intelligence of the voters that they try this retail marketing stunt to attempt election. It's sad.

We're not buying morning cereal here, we're talking the Presidency.

Food For Thought:

The following is what I believe is currently going on within our financial system. I do not have any kind of proof to prove this but comes from observation.

Treasury and the Fed know exactly what is going to happen to our financial system and that is it’s going to implode. They are looking at keeping several banks (Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and JP Morgan) solvent to have something left over to start a new financial system. A lot of people have commented that there is a better way to ease the credit crunch that would not cost as much. There were over 400 economists that said this was not a good way to handle the situation. I believe Treasury’s intent is to get the bad loans off the banks balance sheet so that the banks will become solvent. They need money to do this and they are going to go out and get it from the foreign countries. Thus, selling T-bills that will eventually become no good. The SEC extended the short selling ban until 3 days after passage of the bailout bill. That tells me Treasury will have the money already spent before the ban comes off and it will go only to the special banks. What a mess.

Craig,

In addition, the selection of Palin over someone who knew economics like Romney is just the latest example of McCain's impetuousness and capriciousness.

[Bill Cara note:

The shame of it is that both candidates had ample opportunity to select from at least a half dozen running mates that a fair-minded media would have approved. With Gov. Palin, everybody had high hopes, and she let everybody down with her performances with Katie Couric who was anything but a gotcha journalist in those interviews. The point is, she let the public down. Elements of the public never destroyed her credibility. This was not mean-spirited politics at work. As two of the past nine elected Presidents had to be replaced by their VP, the odds are too great for America to put itself into the position of having this person possibly assume the world's most important leadership position. I wanted to be a non-player in this matter; but I am just stunned by her answers to the most simple questions, so I spoke up. America and the world needs a much more qualified person running for VP of the USA.]

Sold loads of Oct puts in GG SU MOS APA

We don't need no water let the #&(@%^ burn!

Craig,
I agree the attempt was made to sell Bush as the average guy but many of us were well aware of the Bush Dynasty and saw through the packaging.

With Palin, even though she seems very limited in her understanding of the world, the packaging seems more genuine and I do believe the more the media crucifies her the more people like her.

Of course it would be scary with her as President but would it be more scary than Bush?

I guess my main point is that she seems like a real and genuine person like Perot and for many people that's what's been sorely lacking in politics.

Either way I'm still writing in Ron Paul anyway since I live in NY and we're already going to elect whoever Wall Street chooses.

Rob.

krharrellnw,

One possible new leader is Sen. James Webb, (D) WV

I've read two of his non-fiction books and several articles available a his various websites. I believe he is his own man. Resigned as Sec. of Navy on principle. Switched from Republican to Democrat. Speaks straight to the point (a bit too much so at times, but no double talk)

RE POT
Wall Street must have known the POT downgrade was coming. They must have been building huge short positions Would you say this is short covering right now? An alternative thesis, more financial terrorism from Wall Street to scare legislators into passing bailout bill. Or should these companies be trading at 4x earnings and will they see sales nosedive in coming years? How can the story change so quickly?

After doing a little persuing around the .pdf version of the new piece of legislation that has passed in the Senate, I have similar thoughts to most on this board.

Even in a time of crisis, our elected officials couldn't set other things aside and just work on a legislation that was focused on restoring liquidity in the markets. Instead, they have jam packed it with repeals to MtM accounting, energy incentives, tax cuts, and other nonsense.

If I were a member of the House I would be very suspicious. Why do we need to pass 450 pages of legislation that was created within a matter of two weeks?

Lets cut the crap! Whatever happened to "keep it simple stupid" All we need is an outline and Congress is writing an epic novel!

Agreed Shark. As much as I would abhor the thought, at least he is qualified in a needed area of expertise, although I don't think he would lean toward helping you or me.

In the worst event, it would matter a lot.
I would need time to pack up my stuff and head for a border and I think he would do that. :>)

GGP going down the tubes. $0 is a distinct possibility immediately.

If they do pass the bill with the suspension of Mark to Market accounting in there, the credit markets will remain frozen.

The whole issue is trust and confidence. Allowing companies to continue lying about the value of their "assets" will only erode trust further.

Bank A still will not know if Bank B is sound so will still only lend to them under onerous terms. And the rumors and suspicions will still be flying and bankrupting otherwise healthy companies as they're cut off from credit out of fear.

It's astounding they're going to keep the shell game going.

Rob

[Bill Cara note:

The House cannot change this bill. They can have it withdrawn if the Senate knows it will not pass. Then the House can create and pass their own bill, and the Senate would then vote to approve or reject it. A bill will get done within a few days if not Friday. The only questions are (i) how much does it favor Wall Street, and (ii) how much does it set the groundwork in place for major legislative changes after the November election. I only hope that the House doesn't change their vote due to a panic created by those who want this particular bill passed. That would be duress, which in law has meaning. Congress can give a short leash to the Treasury Secretary to hold the credit ring in place until the enactment of appropriate legislation that the public wants done in their interest. There is no need to panic. If equity prices dip a further ten pct, so be it. Those prices will recover in days after the public is confident that good legislation was voted in.]

I get the feeling these markets are going to fly next week. It's interesting to see that Trichet didn't touch interest rates. Putting pressure on Bush. I can imagine the phone at the white house has been running hot all week. Merkel, Berlusconi, Sarkozy, Brown et al...." Bush you *****! Get this thing through before you bring us all down". Call me cynical, but deals are being cut as we speak. Certain congressmen will get very nice directorships over the next year or so and ride off happily into the sunset. The king is dead, long live the king!

Westcoaster:

One of the underlying themes to the stockprices is that earnings estimates have not come down enough to reflect the economic situation. You're starting to see estimate drops and earnings misses. POT also has some strikes going for it, so production is down.

Billy Sundance:

They've never kept a bill simple. The system is designed to clutter up bills.

Despite the fairytale price of paper gold, real physical gold stocks are dwindling...

The customers are wary savers looking to build their own solution to the global financial crisis and the parlous state of the banking system. They are buying gold.

"There has been enormous demand," said Sandra Conway, managing director at ATS, one of the UK's leading gold coin and bar merchants. "There are very few sellers of physical gold and we have actually had queues of people today."

The world's makers of gold bars and gold coins are running flat out to try to keep up with this surge in demand, but stocks are dwindling, especially of Krugerrands.

http://tinyurl.com/48pa64

I found the new redistricting section of the Bailout bill quite revealing:

http://tinyurl.com/4qx3ua

[Bill Cara note:

I also find it quite revealing that the no-short sale rule has been expanded to include REITs, retailers, auto manufacturers, computer companies, and industrial companies. The interventionists want this market locked-down in their interests. The free capital market has died. The SEC has carried out a political act. That was not a regulatory decision in the interests of furtherance of trade in securities. The SEC is now overtly helping the mega-banks put independent hedge funds out of business, and the government is now helping bring that about. I am astonished at the deceit.]

A link to TED spread in case you've lost yours or don't have one yet:

http://tinyurl.com/4ywka6

A nice indicator for the state of the credit market.

"One possible new leader is Sen. James Webb, (D) WV"

Please. Jim Webb represents VA not WV.

I do not see capitulation (RSI 7 day <10) in the ag stocks nor a Triple RSI buy breakout.

And retests of lows are quite common.

What possible difference could it make what papers Palin reads? If she had said Wa Times or Christian Science Monitor she'd have been stuck for that.
For myself, I haven't touched a physical paper in a decade unless I was clipping coupons. I skim several aggregates and blog sites that are relevant to my interests and look for larger perspectives on the big issues. With the disgraceful non-reporting by the NYT during the Bush admin, how can anyone suggest that journalism is still intact in our country? Why do I have to go to UK Times or AP Times to read vital stories relevant to our country and way of life? The US based papers certainly aren't promulgating the truth. IMO, the Congress is counting on the media to shift the narrative for this whole bailout debacle - and they will.

Hi,

Could any of the Community Members please tell us when is this vote expected to take place?

Thank you in advance.

Cheers!

Bill, there's a word for the too-close cooperation between government and corporations at the expense of common citizens that we're witnessing in this period. It's called:

F*A*S*C*I*S*M

Gimme an F......"F!"
Gimme an A......"A!"......

Bill,

What you're surprised? The way of the world.

CNN had a segment on the most recent Saturday Night Live parody of Palin. If you missed it, check it out:

http://tinyurl.com/3l9lwj

- Erik P

RE POT
overlay a JJG (grains etf) chart with a POT chart and see that the grains are not there to hold up the POT, grains have not hit their fall lows.

I really hope the house doesn't pass it as well. Especially with suspending mark-to-market accounting.

I could even handle a 20-30% drop in the indexes to get it right and not pass a bill that, I think, will make things worse.

What will Paulson and company be saying then if it passes but the credit market remains locked and the market keeps tanking because everyone is still hiding and lying about bad assets and trust erodes further?

Oh yeah, that's right they'll be out of office enjoying their golden parachutes.

Rob.

re:CNW. Made a lower price low, MACD diverging. trailing 1/3 10 day ATR (.85)buy stop

re:rknick/POT

Interesting comparison. on stockcharts, it shows an RSI 7 day of 21. So it hasn't capitulated nor has it broken out.

We'll know in the fullness of time.

Full disclosure. Long but small position at 137.

Mark Warner is running for senate, I know and respect him because of what he did (was it luck?) for Virginia while governor, but I don't care too much the do-nothing yoyo he helped get elected at term end.

Hoyer stated the House vote should be around mid-day Friday

If one subtracts the 10 day ATR for the DJIA (360) from yesterday's close, the result is 10471 which is still above the panic low on the 29th (10365).

My guess is the big boys blast that low tomorrow and clears out all the sell stops near the open.

Came out of CNBC breaking news line that leader of house waste and means said that he is confident that the house will pass new bill. CNBC just reported the same thing verbally.

RE bsi87 JJG/POT
the RSIs are about the same for both,
the grain traders are looking for one more day down like today as a possible bottom.
waiting to go long corn and beans

It is what it is.

Regarding the bill. Some misconceptions about things added.

A number of these items were already on a bill, especially the references to energy saving tax credits, some other tax items. This "Paulson financial crisis" bill thing was added with everything else (and then, yes, some other items were added) within @ the last 10 days of the month.

Congress usually votes on these issues which peak and end the last days of September, which is also the end of the government fiscal year. Most have not read the entire bill. This year circumstances have carried it into the first days of October.

Good example of what sausage making is--throwing everything into the last bill before everyone is gone in October; Congressman and 1/3 of the Senators rushing out the door to campaign for their re-election.

It is what it is.

In my humble opinion, they should ban short-selling on Cara 100 companies! This will do our economy much good :)

"I really think people vote for President more on looks and likability than qualifications." Right on, Finger Lakes.

Read Marshall McLuhan, who had a lot to say about this subject, including, "Today the tyrant rules not by club or fist, but, disguised as a market researcher, he shepherds his flocks in the ways of utility and comfort."

No doubt in my mind that the choice of Sarah Palin was a decision based on market research, an undertaking we have all seen many times to be fallible.

These are, in the words and meaning of what is reputed to be (but no real proof) an ancient Chinese curse, "interesting times".

Maro: House will vote Friday.

TED spread is in backwardization apparently. Anyone qualified to explain the significance? Doesn't sound good that shorted duration loans cost more than longer ones.

re:rknick/JJG

I see an RSI 7 day of 16. Rough eyeball sez 40. DBA is the same way.

GL.

Alaskan,

Thanks.

SLW:

not looking at all bullish anymore.
i.e. - look out below.

took a nibble on Regions Financial (RF) made small fast money

Re Palin (about whom I know nothing), this appeared on another forum, and seems a reasonable summation:

While suturing a cut on the hand of a 75-year old Texas rancher whose hand was caught in a gate while working cattle, the doctor struck up a conversation with the old man. Eventually the topic got around to Sarah Palin and her bid to be a heartbeat away from being President.

The old rancher said, "Well, ya know, Palin is a post turtle." Not being familiar with the term, the doctor asked him what a post turtle was. The rancher said, "When you're driving down a country road and you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that's a post turtle."

The old rancher saw a puzzled look on the doctor's face, so he continued to explain. "You know she didn't get up there by herself, she doesn't belong up there, she doesn't know what to do while she is up there, and you just wonder what kind of dummy put her up there to begin with."

[Bill Cara note:

If anything, I agree with the sentiment. She is representing somebody's interest or else she would not have been selected. In any case, if she performs tonight in debate like she did with simple questioning from Katie Couric, the Republic Party will have an almost nil chance of election to the Presidency.]

this market seems destined for the basement today

Good morning! I wanted to start buying again when DOW drops below 10400, but couldn't pass by today's prices. I just bought another 250 shares of VLO at $26.80, placing a sell limit order at $28.80. The fact that both VLO and USO are falling does not seem right to me...

Also, a buy limit order was triggered for 2000 shares of WGW at $1.5, for 500 shares of SWC at $5.40 and for 500 shares of SLW at $7.5. I hope we are VERY close to the bottom... :)

hedge funds pulling out of commodities

http://tiny.cc/2NVtn

I'm getting slammed today, so I added some SU for good measure. I'm heading out to buy tile for my bathroom. I'm going to install it too. I traded a treadmill for a tile saw. Ahhhh, the pleasures of being retired.

Guys - you do not think Couric who IS FAR LEFT - was not asking gotcha questions after Palin bashed the MSM in her speech at the RNC convention? She is not going to Wash DC to please the MSM - she is going to please the PEOPLE of USA - cmon...did the MSM ask these same questions to Obama when he chose to run for POTUS? Did they ask Clinton in 1992? IMO - who cares what they read - I care more about what their views are which she has communicated to the public...

One thing is for certain that Platinum group metals did not perform as a safe haven at all. In fact, Platinum was probably the worst choice for precious metals.

Bond yields still stable despite wonky markets:

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

I'd be getting a list of oil field stocks together. JMO.

I think it comes as a complete surprise to a hobbit like Palin that a very large number of Americans keep it as a secret dream close to their hearts that they would like to see universal medicare and social security implemented.

Schleppy-

I can't speak for photogray (also a rainy NW Washingtonian) but Maria will definitely get the hole punched next to her name the next time I vote.

took another bite of regions on the drop

Couric is not far left - come on. She is as blandly centrist as they come. Washington insiders are just stunned that she can't answer their questions about what policies she would enact or even what policies Bush has chosen. That is what politics is about. Or at least used to be - now it is seemingly a reality show popularity contest.

POT, MON, MOS -

MON up their 2008 annual guidance 2 weeks ago by .09 and again this monring by .05, after their stock dropped 20% along with Fert. stocks. MON has regain half of the loss.

Merril Lynch has downgraded POT, MOS, CF this morning, but not price target or earning estimates. Even with MOS's outstanding growth, they missed the earning estimate, though "margin of error" on these estimates are at least .25-.30 given few analysts.

MON report on Oct. 8. POT later. I suspect that there will be more downgrade, and lower targets days to come. ... oh well...

2nd
I was staying away but addded SU/GE today
now 60% in stock
will wait for few days before buy more
not down much because I was on OEX train up and down

"TED spread is now calculated as the difference between the three-month T-bill interest rate and three-month LIBOR. The TED spread is a measure of liquidity and shows the degree to which banks are willing to lend money to one another."

Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TED_spread

MON, AG -

Some report from WSJ -
http://tinyurl.com/4gqxml

TGP is barely down today. Maybe its 12% yield has helped it hit bottom?

yeah baby

[Bill Cara note:

David Tice of the Prudent BEAR Fund has told Bloomberg he thinks the DJIA index will fall to 5000 or 6000 in the next six months. "Prudence?" David is normally a reasoned person, but I don't see the value in that kind of discussion. There will be a solution to the credit market problem and life will go on. I recall in November 1987 sitting in the front row of the Blanchard hard money conference session put on by Elliot Wave guru Robert Prechter. We had just had the Black Monday crash of October 19, 1987 and the DJIA was trading at a bit under 2000. Prechter was trying to scare the audience by saying the market was soon to have a second leg down to 300 to 500. Everybody choked, but I laughed aloud at the clown. It's one thing to have views that can be debated, but there is nothing to be gained by putting on a circus act. People will come to their senses later and resent it. In Tice's case, I do respect the man's credentials, and look forward to his analysis, so I can challenge them here.]

vinod- i emptied the revolver earlier this week, or i'd be adding...should have reloaded on tuesday's spike up, but there's no way to have known how it would play out...

Seriously Rob, you know as much about Katie Couric's views as you do your favorite soap opera star. Get real, you are just spouting total BS based on your bias and making unfounded assumptions which you can't back-up with any facts.

The questions ARE designed to reveal flaws, that is their job. Same for the other point of view.
That's not gotcha, that is journalism. You probably haven't seen much journalism lately.
You know, they ask a revealing question and the politician that is supposed to tell us about themselves, ANSWERS the revealing question.
Remember that?
YES, Obama has been asked the same questions over and over, that's how he defeated Clinton.
Remember that?
Just because you don't like the outcome as a Palin cheerleader doesn't make it incorrect.
The press is doing it's job and the information is being reported. That's how it works.

I once heard a north-westerner say "A day in Seattle is like a day without sunshine."

putting a sell stop on AA at 18.74.

1.5*10 day ATR under entry price of 21.24

goldcorp now $29.63 on the tsx

sv

Steny Hoyer just announced there will be no vote tomorrow unless they're sure it can pass. So, I guess we can expect the market to crash until then.

Rob.

2nd
I will seat quite now
all of my pick may give good return after 4 month
do not wants to use all money. never know it may go down lot
this is the first time I have seen market like this
I look at my son's 401k which has all fidelity fund and he is down big

MOS - add 1/2 OCT 40 puts to partially cover OCT 35 naked short. Hate it when that happens

Craig
a little refresher]

Important Cara Community Rules and Guidelines:

001. Remember that we are a community, gathering to help each other learn and prosper.

010. Do not insult community members. Express yourself in a kind and respectful manner, even if you are upset.

Long QLD @ 47.25... this will be an overnight position

2nd
What I do not understand is OIL is down and VLO/TSO is also down, it is understandable that SU go down
Also airliner should move up but they are not
My feeling is there may be permanent damage is done to economy and may take longer to recover

Thank You QT.

Today's action almost seems like a few big hedge funds or mutual funds are liquidating.

rob.

QT,

I don't think that Craig quite violated those rules. Though bearing them in mind could never hurt.

laying in stops on yesterday's buys. Stop LIMIT orders.

What did I say earlier about El Basemento?

Bill if this is the start of the new bull market it seems to be experiencing birthing pains:)

[Bill Cara note:

New Bulls usually suffer birthing pains just like new Bears suffer a death struggle. Go back to read my original take on XOM when I opined it was dead, but still kicking. As I recall the price was almost 94; it then dropped to about 77 and rallied a final time to just over 95, so I repeated by opinion that XOM was dead. Then it sunk to the low 70's.

This is important. What I am trying to do here is address the needs of maybe 90% of the community -- people who read this during their lunch and after work and on weekends only. They are not day traders. Even for day traders, events shift hour to hour from speeches, votes in Congress, economic data, take-over/failure news, etc. I can't keep up while doing other work and attending meetings. That's why I assembled a team of 20 contractors all over the world to assist me manage client accounts. One thing in life I learned many years ago is to wear one hat. Now that I have come out of retirement, I am a professional trader who leads a team on behalf of specific clients. The blog is my pro bono work to a very diverse community. I do the best I can in any case.]

The market is doing a heck of a job throwing a temper tantrum and meanwhile the USD is doing a number on foreign currencies.......

USD is beating down the Brazilian Real so badly today(5.3%) that gold is actually up 2% in Brazil!

Is the kid gonna get a happy meal or is this station wagon going directly home?

Finger Lakes

SLW.... What do you think...will we ever hit bottom?

GG [once again in to early]

Intra-day double top in the VIX, i would add longs here if it wasn't an overnight position.

IWM straddle: sold half of the puts as the put side was worth more than twice the call side in $, rebalancing/taking profits, as this is a play on the bailout vote.

On fertilizers, lunch hour guest on BNN saying the bubble has burst and does not recommend AGU or POT. Farmers switching from corn to soybean as they require less fertilizing. Wonder what Don Coxe is saying.

stonecrest, re. 11:49AMpost, interesting.

With the expansion of the short-selling ban, as Bill said, pushing the hedgies out of business, SLW and GG will probably stay down, or not make much headway until demand stabilizes. By killing the hedgefunds, they're actually killing demand for stocks. There are less people around to soak up the volume. The smart long place for the hedgies to have been would have been PMs. Serves two purposes: wipes out competition for Goldman, et. al. and keeps the normal flight to safety reaction of PM stocks from creating a vacuum that sucks capital away from other equities

Mmmmmhhh, and since it's unlikely most 401k and pension plans were that keeps ma and pa less on edge.

Ehhhh, maybe not....

Chicken and waffles...

Looks to me like SLW has some longer term support in the low 6s. If it gets there I will buy some.

[Bill Cara note:

What would the current cash flow per share be for SLW in the low 6's?]

unlikely most 401k an pension plans were in PMs, that is

BillySundance, the market doesn't seem to think there's a happy meal in the cards.

looks like they're been trying to set up a late afternoon rally, if it breaks down instead, it might get nasty.

or maybe another day like yesterday - bull-bear fight into the close, no winner.

At lest we're not talking shredded chicken here!

FAB re VIX

Not real time but the VIX is still lower than on the 29th. One would like to see a higher high and the hourly MACD diverge.

this is painful.

who would have guessed in the midst of such a massive crisis the US dollar would be cresting 80 while gold falling like a rock.

barf.!

nemo

Good point!

I wouldn't be surprised if WSJ or Reuters runs a story later this afternoon that a House member is confident that the bill will pass....yadayada...
and we get a reversal

certainly not until after some lambs are sacrificed at the alter of margin calls though

re:SLW.

Max pain for Nov shows 7.50.

10 day ATR is .88.

50 DEMA is 10.46.

There'll be a trade somewhere but what/when it is escapes me.

nemo,

it's FEWER people. Less water air and open space, fewer widgets, autos and hedgehogs.

If you can count em, it's FEWER (batmobiles). If you can't it's LESS (pain).

thanks bsi. that sounds like a better, safer trigger to wait for.

re David Tice...yes, it would be nice to know how he arrives at his targets...i can understand how they might want to interview him now that his fund is outperforming, but there are going to be a few listeners who are going to get taken out at exactly the wrong time...

QT,
My thinking is that the dollar will stay up until the bill passes because everyone knows it should fall. Same reason we're getting the full-court press in commodities today. Professionals want the positions we're holding once we dump them.

So, I could see it getting even worse tomorrow at this rate, especially if it's exacerbated by a failing hedge fund or two.

It seems for now that most of the FED's extra money they threw out this week has been buying up the dollar.

But I really doubt it can hold up for long, especially with Europe holding rates steady. They'll press it until they run enough dollar shorts out.

I should have waited to buy but calling exact bottoms is just as hard as calling exact tops. I feel good about my holdings and (hopefully) won't panic even if we drop 20% from here.

Rob.

bsi87

I would like to sent you something and get your take on it. If you are interested email me at qt.cara[at]gmail.com

shark- congrats...all writers are sensitive to syntax...

nemo.. and practical trading wise, absence of shorts shows in the depth of pullbacks way more steep than normal. For an illustration, have a look at NCC dip at 11:10 - 11:16 EST guys. No news, just a pullback - over 10%, on a $3 stock! No shorts to cover softening the drop and decreasing volatility - that's what we get.

Not necessary a bad thing for a day trader watching his chosen stocks like a hawk, noticing these patterns and utilizing them - but how such volatility benefits an investor? And that's the claim behind the ban of shorting, isn't it...

Craig was in no way being disrespectful or violating the spirit of the rules.

When something is indeed wrong, there is no disrespect in calling out the obvious. The fellow he addressed was spouting sophomoric partisan talking points that have no basis in reality. Calling that out is doing everyone a service in pursuit of objectivity.

A bit of contrast:

In the few weeks immediately following running mate selections Biden gave 89! interviews and multiple press conferences. Palin still has not given a press conference, has given two interviews to centrists (Couric and Gibson) and two to partisan hacks (Hannity and Hewitt).

You can turn a blind eye to reality and claim that she "speaks to the american people and they like her", but data would refute you. She is a net negative, is seen by the majority to be unqualified, and her positives/favorability are sinking like a stone on the back of the little questioning she's seen.

She was my Governon for a short period before I returned to the lower 48. I witnessed her campaign and govern.

And to knock down one more partisan shilling point re: approval ratings. Alaska has no state tax on income or sales. Further, Palin squeezed the oil companies a bit on royalties at a time when oil prices were exploding. Consequentially she was able to raise the permanent fund dividend (oil rev check sent to each citizen) to approx 3x the normal level while simulatenously expanding the state budget. If you send everyone a check for $12k for a family of 4, and goose the economy through infrastructure and other spending of course you will have high approval. If GWB sent me a check every year for $10k, I'd approve of him too even while he systematically destroyed the finances and reputation of the country.

Back ON topic: Adding some TCK here, looks like a gift at these levels.

"looks like they're been trying to set up a late afternoon rally, if it breaks down instead, it might get nasty."

This market feels heavy. It seems like a -500 day is in the cards.

bsi: proven right. VIX breaking out to new daily highs.

Current Long-Term Portfolio:

Stock / Avg. Price

CCJ @ 21.81
MGA.TO @ 1.16
NVA.TO @ 12.8
OEX.TO @ 3.26
RIO @ 18.3
SU @ 38.6
WAV.TO @ 8.47
DELL @ 16.1
GG @ 29.1
CEF.A @ 11.90

I think it's safe to say I was way too early in my accumulation.

Gotta watch those stocks Vadym like an anxious mother in a valley full of hungry dingos!

You guys know the Scottrade ad they're playing where the guy say "expletive deleted"? They just played it. That's something new.

Finger Lakes

Your reasoning is sound. I expect it to take off after this massive bailout package is passed, when ever that may be. Of course lately the opposite of what I see happening seems to unfold. But in either case I plan on holding, even if it results in "max pain". ;-)

Greenspan still appears on Bloomberg. What is his credibility now?

Sell yer (expletive deleted) stocks! Sell em. This thing's headed down.

Will the S&P500 hold the 1120 level again today?

Looks like it might fall below that level and keep going...

Bought SLW @ $7.14
DE @ $40 ($39 trading now)

Video to wake you up!! Do you have to be born in NY to be able to think and speak this fast? Old, Southerner me thinks in a drawl.

http://tinyurl.com/4azpxw

- krharrellnw -
Excellent comments -
Hopefully, the positive coming out of the farce going on in Washington D.C. the past couple of weeks will be to wake some of us to how these people work and how they think and draw attention to the urgent need to clean house back there.
Personally, I like Bill's bull thinking and for the long term I'm working into a few of the Cara 100's such at BA, SU, BHP... and some non-Cara 100's as well... but I'm keeping my trading dollars available for weeks like this! Talk about some action in the market and an opportunity to make some money, this is it.

SLW has a major fib @ 6.94.

only for day traders / falling knife catchers.

QT,
I'm right there with you, holding tight.

Rob.

Sharkster:

I ain't done good :(

Something that I should have thought of a long time ago just occurred to me: at some point, the TED spread is going to contract. A short treasury/long eurodollar play is called for once the contraction starts. I have no idea if instruments are available to trade it with small enough leverage for me to handle, I'll need to go do some research.

Bill,
You are an excellent guide, i concur with your assessments, although I admit to have been sceptical as well. On a side note I like to remind myself of this axiom when all around me seems to be chaotic...."A Bull market begins on pessimism, grows on skepticism, matures on optimism and dies on Euphoria."

Blowout Preventer:
Not living up to your moniker!

RDR (my moniker) now stands for Really Dismal Returns

RE: Palin there was a time when Katie interviewed Bob Dole. The publicans called that an attack by an angry pit bull leftie too. I was disappointed that Katie was so congenial with him.

on topic: do we like the man's advice who never holds overnight, or the man with the long term gains? I'm sticking with my holdings even if it means not looking at my account. Hey, if it falls apart, my paper dollars are worthless anyway.

stopped out of ABV/DE.

he who runs away lives to fight another day.

Time for bsi's last hour indicator. POT daytrade was my only bright spot.

Thanks guys....I suppose it depends on one's pre-determined POV because I didn't think I was too bad, but if QT "felt" I did, good enough, best to give him a nod, Thank him for the reminder and turn it down a hair so as not to offend.

I simply want a fact based discussion, not one based on an outside guess or assumption about Katie Couric. It isn't even remotely about Katie Couric and to my knowledge, no one here knows Katie Couric. That's a purposeful distraction designed to take our attention from the real question.....what does Sarah Palin think she knows and what are her sources?

I would think that's part of about all job interviews I can think of, even jobs far less complicated than VP.

Even if I have an axe to grind, and I DO, it doesn't mean I (we) can't all ask honest questions designed to reveal the weakness of fellow members assertions. I'll try to ask those as politely as possible.

Why is gold not going up today???

and why is everyone going to the US dollar when the US is in trouble???

thanks sv

Bull Hunter

Now this is "max pain"...2 Mondays ago I had a fleet of trucks loaded with these babies.

QID [high today]: 61.13

TWM [high today]: 81.60

Bob Hoye is saying that the gold/silver ratio often balloons to 100 in a contraction. Gold has been outperforming silver lately.

[Bill Cara note:

House Republicans just stated they have issues with the $150 billion pork added by the Senate to the Rescue bill, so I think the writing is on the wall that this bill will not pass. A statement was made that maybe Paulson will have $50 billion released and then the House will return on Oct 17 to see how he spent it, and that would give them sufficient time to draft a new bill. Common sense finally returns to Congress. Apparently, calls are still being received from the voters 3 or more to 1 against this bill.]

Gold, Oil, Stocks down.

Deflation, and not inflation!

and Debt gets more expensive!

I think everyone is raising cash with commodities.

Demand is going down...

re:CNW.

hrly MACD not diverging.

Unemployment Report tomorrow. Market usually responds to its spin - bad news is good news - so, is PPT saving its powder until tomorrow just before the vote on Bailout?

re:POT

85-80 tomorrow?

Blowout Preventer,

Always better to be late to the party, as I found out today.

Apparently when POT goes down so does CNR.TO

VLO - bv $35.58, rev/share $21323 and is now $26.47 w a pe of 6.7.

I own a few vlo Jan calls.

Mr Cara:

I'm curious... do you generally recommend the use of stop loss (mental or otherwise)?

Or, to be more specific. If one:
- has a long-term horizon
- uses "triple-RSI" Buy Alerts (RSIApp)
- buys Cara Global 100 stocks
- uses risk management/position sizing
- has entered (and will continue to enter) the market recently (on dips)

Would you be placing stops in this environment?

(I know, I should buy your book ;-)

Thanks for any comment

Two words: Wealth Destruction!

MTN, Vail Resorts, it seems its finally dawning on investors that people are not going to be able to afford sking and that high priced Vail real estate.

long CNW 33.85

JohnE - I'm with ya on Valero - can you generate those same numbers for NUE?

What's up with SNDK today? it's up 2.75% and looking "momentarily" strong

I've got it! Why don't they call the bailout an austerity plan?

WYNN: holding a double bottom.

goldbug58 - NUE pe6.6, 3.24%div, bv$25, rev/share$70.54, ern/share $5.90

no position in NUE

SNDK up 4.10% now - perhaps this is the reason
Industry group: August chip sales rose 5.5 percent 6 hours ago Associated Press

SNDK info.
http://tinyurl.com/3gh4qn

Bill

Any comments on potash down $30

Is this an over reaction to a downgrade by merrill Lynch

thanks sv

SNDK is a rocket up 6.55% must be a new buyout offer?

FranSix, that name is probably better than the one that failed in test audience screenings:

Zero Downpayment Part II: Time To Pay The Piper

yamana gold on sale in the 6's

how yall doin today? I'm down a few bucks. Not a lot.

sv,

I doubt Bill is going to give u an answer.

R u long?

I told you boys this market was headed into the latrine head first with a bullet.

SV - RE: POT...pull up a 5 year chart of that bad boy and tell me it's not a bubble. while i'm not saying it's a nasdaq-esque bubble, it would do some good to apply a 85% loss to the top of their chart and see where it comes out.

This has to be the worst day ever for the miners. Double-digit percentage losses for AUY, GG, SLW (all of which I'm holding). OUCH! Please let the pain stop!! I know from past experience that as soon as I sell the thing reverses...

POT is almost back to pre-split price of $86 that I was looking at entering.

Accounting for the growth and split (before they got the China contract and speculators set in) that would probably put them at a target price of around $43-50.

Looking at the chart they have a fair amount of support at the end 2007-begin 2008 level.

Uhhhh, Fried chicken gizzard...

gg 200 @ 26.98

VIX back over 46. Other than that just another orderly decline that could go on and on.

The market pain is now palpable. There is nothing safer than cash, and I for one came into the market too early like many of you.

What a violent experience! Look at MSFT hold up though. I guess buying your own shares helps keep your price up!

Be careful what you ask for...CNQ.TO in my sights at $65. Can't pull the trigger

Bailout plan..

I am amazed at the rhetoric out from the media about the plan.

It seems that there are literally two different stories out there. Of course the cheerleading story is definitely more common than the actual story.

It is amazing that execs are getting press about it, as the little people's voices are on deaf ears to the media.

Obviously the little people are getting heard at the offices of the congress.

This will be an interesting 24 hours nonetheless. Perhaps history will be judge at this moment or not. Maybe this is a small event of what's to come or it is the big event. Time will only tell.
It is nice to hear sanity (calmness) from a site like this one. I swear that you would think bullets are flying down range elsewhere.

Read the bill the senate passed (click save to download then open pdf):

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/01/news/pdf/index.htm

I never thought I'd see such devastation in the PM camp...

I follow about 30 stocks in the sector, and only 5 are down less than 10%: RGLD, GRZ, KRY, RIC, SIL!

The vast majority are down > 15%!!!

wavesmash - Thank you. I finally unloaded 5 sndk OCT19C that I lucked into right before the Samsung offer. Foolishly held on and rode the train down the hill. At least I sold them for a profit now!

ALOHA !!

Just a reminder about the power of the US FED ...

In 2002, Ben "Shalom" Bernanke(that is his actual given name)gave a speech titled, “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here.”

READ ON:
"Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."END

He even mentions the word "gold"! Apparently both gold and silver have unlimited supply on the COMEX ... paper gold and silver ... that is! JP MORGAN can always announce a COMEX "merger" with GLD and SLV! HA!!

I wonder if Goldman Sachs will someday take delivery on the TOCOM? Hey, its Japanese gold not American gold isn't it? HA!!

Way overdone dump the miners panic

10 GDX Dec $32 calls @ 2.85

I have a very serious question to ask: how many puke points are there supposed to be again?

DJIA down 180 first 30 minutes, down 66 last hour.

General Comment

It appears that the global demand destruction theme is taking root and the rescue or bailout plan as currently written,if passed, won't have a major effect on global growth trends in the near future.

Demand will continue to soften globally, leading to reduced inflation and a growing recessionary environment. Business failures and unemployment continue to rise. Credit destruction continues to erupt in auto and consumer loans, commercial real estate and corporate sectors. Consumer psychology,once turned negative, does not easily turn. Real fear has been generated in the last weeks.

If massive monetary creation is the response by the Treasury to the US economic recession, hyper inflationary conditions may arise, with attendant crack up boom/bull market and then with debt levels so exaggerated, dollar collapse and destruction become inevitable.

Richard Russell said recently that the $700 billion being requested now is just the beginning of multi-trillions that will be required to restore our economy. He alluded to the way WWII
pulled us out of the 30's depression. So its either spend it on infrastructure or another war. Our bridges,roads,utility systems are all old and in need of massive investment. Now is a good time to remind your representatives that we want our money spent here in America to benefit Americans, instead of perpetual war and global meddling which has developed over the last 5 years.

Near term...looks like the stock market may trade in the 10-11,000 range possibly even breeching the 10,000 level. If we have a feel good rally after passage of the rescue bill, and entry into 2x inverse funds DXD.SDS,EWV,EFU,FXP may be good for a 1000 pt ride to the downside..

Looking at PWE today ... Price $22.10 Yld 17%+
38% off 52 week HI ....for some who are looking for income, perhaps a good entry point.

That's the way it looks from Sedona,AZ... where Lady Palin has been practicing her debating skills the last few days at the McCain ranch.

Remember that old Simon and Garfunkel son - Slip Sliding Away....

SiO2, nemo, VAD with CEG at $27.23 and the buyout at $26.50 is it time to sell?

Bought some CNQ.to at the close for $65.22
I did manage to slip out of pot.to at $111.50, SLW.to @$7.95, Dell @$15.85, and RIMM at $63 this afternoon after reading Bill's warning, and pappdjavul "lookout below" post. This I would not have done as skillfully before arriving here, so thanks all. I live to play another day. Let's see if better prices are available tomorrow. Still holding TBT, BA, and tiny AIG position.

Don't pass that $700B stat quo, let an independent panel buy on behalf at current value $0.001/$. After today the securities in question lost more of whatever value they might've brought so $700B might be too generous...

Remember, Congress has never passed a porkless bill, i.e. still not enough pork grease to pass....?

How about JPM? Looks like they must be first in line for bailout dollars as their stock is just below a 52 week high.

I can't see anything else even close to a 52 week high.

Strange...

Rob.

"But Buffett said in an interview with CNBC Wednesday that if Congress doesn't approve the bailout plan soon, then "I will have done some dumb things.""

Sounds like Buffett and Bill are on the same page: market will bottom if there is a reflation.

I just bought back most of the calls I sold against my gold position. Maby a mistake but all had less than 85 cents left. Not worth the risk to hold an extra 2 weeks. Instead of rolling on expiration every month I have started timing my buys and sells based on Bill's RSI(7) and the Wm%R(14)-The williams seems to give more useful signals when used on a daily basis. My overall performance has improved. Thanks Bill.

Recent Comment from Ron Paul...

"F.A. Hayek won the Nobel Prize for showing how central banks’ manipulation of interest rates creates the boom-bust cycle with which we are sadly familiar. In 1932, in the depths of the Great Depression, he described the foolish policies being pursued in his day – and which are being proposed, just as destructively, in our own:

Instead of furthering the inevitable liquidation of the maladjustments brought about by the boom during the last three years, all conceivable means have been used to prevent that readjustment from taking place; and one of these means, which has been repeatedly tried though without success, from the earliest to the most recent stages of depression, has been this deliberate policy of credit expansion.

To combat the depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about; because we are suffering from a misdirection of production, we want to create further misdirection – a procedure that can only lead to a much more severe crisis as soon as the credit expansion comes to an end... It is probably to this experiment, together with the attempts to prevent liquidation once the crisis had come, that we owe the exceptional severity and duration of the depression.

The only thing we learn from history, I am afraid, is that we do not learn from history.

The very people who have spent the past several years assuring us that the economy is fundamentally sound, and who themselves foolishly cheered the extension of all these novel kinds of mortgages, are the ones who now claim to be the experts who will restore prosperity! Just how spectacularly wrong, how utterly without a clue, does someone have to be before his expert status is called into question?

Oh, and did you notice that the bailout is now being called a “rescue plan”? I guess “bailout” wasn’t sitting too well with the American people.

The very people who with somber faces tell us of their deep concern for the spread of democracy around the world are the ones most insistent on forcing a bill through Congress that the American people overwhelmingly oppose. The very fact that some of you seem to think you’re supposed to have a voice in all this actually seems to annoy them.

I continue to urge you to contact your representatives and give them a piece of your mind. I myself am doing everything I can to promote the correct point of view on the crisis. Be sure also to educate yourselves on these subjects – the Campaign for Liberty blog is an excellent place to start. Read the posts, ask questions in the comment section, and learn.

H.G. Wells once said that civilization was in a race between education and catastrophe. Let us learn the truth and spread it as far and wide as our circumstances allow. For the truth is the greatest weapon we have."

In liberty,

Ron Paul
for The Daily Reckoning

After-Hours trading is down @ Scottrade. : (

I should really look into switching to Interactive Brokers.

Thanks for sharing your pain guys. After a day like today. (Well I can't remember a day like today) I am usually crying like a little baby. Now I can take my loss like a man. A poor man but a man all the same.
Bob

Moab - Yes the market may bottom, but absent of real equity or new debt injected into the banking system, nothing will get fixed - the bill does not do that - recapitalization (Fed injections) and expunging bad assets (bill) are nice but will not be an improvement to the balance sheets for the EXACT reasons Hussman points out and Don Coxe also re-stated yesterday completely independently.

So the rally, anyone's guess how long it will last, may be a selling opportunity and as wild as it may be we should not be clouded by it. Unless we see some equity or preferably giant debts injected into these banks, the unraveling of other derivatives may make what we've seen so far seem like a walk in the park.

p.s. I am getting killed in metal, energy and ag companies.

Ron Paul Rules!!!!

Rob.

Portfolio down 5% today..... down 7.9% for the year.

Hard day to swallow since I was getting closer to breakeven.....there's always tomorrow.

JohnE:

What is your reason to keep holding ceg?

"The very people who with somber faces tell us of their deep concern for the spread of democracy around the world are the ones most insistent on forcing a bill through Congress that the American people overwhelmingly oppose."

I think America is too afraid of Ron Paul because everything he says makes way too much sense........... change doesn't come easy........

bailout - what you do when the boat is sinking.
rescue plan - what you need after the boat sunk.

McCain has picked an auctioneer as future treasury secretary (who else would be qualified to run a fed auction anyway?) and is tring to use the Buffett name to perk up ratings?
http://tinyurl.com/4moek5

Isn't Buffett a democrat? I'm sure his views on overpopulation don't mix well with Palin's.

Looking forward to debate tonite.

Next year banks will be getting their treasury auctions fulfilled by eBay?

Or maybe Yahoo auctions?

Well, it looks as though HB&B and the plunge producing team set us up for the vote tomorrow, just as they did on Monday.

Fear sure works!!!

POTASH - OK here is the skinny! People do not want to be skinny. Potash is used for Corn - ie Bio Fuel. But the main driver is the Far East. These people are enjoying life finally and that means enjoying protein ie beef,pork, chicken. The drive is coming from cattle. which takes 7 times more feed than pork per pound.

You've eaten Rice for ever you finally get a chance to eat something else. Every dollar spent 70 cents to food in India. China its every 40 cents per dollar.

This is not an option people have to eat! The potash price has just gone up to $1000 dollars!

Potash workers are on strike that means less Potash which means higher prices.

These shorts are not that smart if they think people can avoid food. The U.N will have to buy potash for third world countries because they are starving- its a simply way the help the crop yield.

Wake up- there is no altenative

PS have another burger and think Potash! Not cow! enjoy!

Bought RBY 1.35 earlier today, and AUY 6.83 and GG 26.40 near the close. All but RBY down, but I think I bought them reasonably cheap, and have the sneaking suspicion that metal and miners were sold today, but those people might be planning to reload cheaper tomorrow on the panic after the bill passes.

Just guessing that was the capitulation panic and it won't drop tomorrow as a result.

Hey I heard street gold is 1000 an ounce.

Too bad the miners trade off the fake price.

[Bill Cara note:

Apparently, it's very hard to buy the physicals. So something big is happening here. I say buy the gold here. At the end of the day, the central bankers and finance ministers of the G-20 will unite to solve this crisis. Whatever the cost -- $2, $3, $4 trillion? -- they will pay now that they have control of the public treasury. So I will not fight these people, but I will go for the gold too. After this episode is over, I think most people will see why Henry Paulson was sent to the White House, and why I opined all along this was his fault and that he needs to be impeached. What he has done is show the American public just who is in charge, and it's not the people or their elected reps.]

Why don't people in Congress and in the markets understand why the average person doesn't want the bailout bill passed? It's VERY SIMPLE: the average person shouldn't foot the bill for this. The people that benefited from it should. Take the money from the top 1% of Americans and not from the average person. $2,200 per person for middle and lower income people is a LOT OF MONEY. The upper class can foot a bill of this size.

How about people like Stanley O'Neil, Richard Fuld, Mozilo, etc.? They are only paying $2,200 as well, huh? Is that really fair?

bsi87

looking into buying pot or agu but leaning more towards agrium...

sv

Hey sv,

Why are you leaning more toward agrium vs pot? Just curious.

Thanks

-8.05% today, -5.0% ytd. Worst market conditions in how long? I have this forum to thank for outperforming, and not HB&B, congress, or irresponsible administratium!

Quoting Bill's note inserted in a posting above:

"House Republicans just stated they have issues with the $150 billion pork ..a statement was made that Paulson will have $50 billion released and then the House will return on Oct 17 to see how he spent it, and that would give them sufficient time to draft a new bill...."

If this comes to pass, the conspiracy theorist in me sees a plan within the plan: October 17 is Options Expiration Friday. Did they ask Paulson himself to name a date, for Christ's sake? I might be laughing at this, but I have some wooden arrows to pull off my back...

[Bill Cara note:

Excellent comment. Let's all watch closely and try to figure out what these people are trying to do to pull the wool over our eyes. Clearly, they are desperate, and desperate bpeople take bold steps. Money can be made here if we unite and work a plan.]

re:POT/AGU

POT RSI 7 day 13.58, closed 93.51, Nov max pain 145

AGU RSI 7 day 15.99, closed 41.61, Nov max pain 65

Looks like POT has more potential and may bottom sooner.

No position.

In the field report:

Portfolios: currently greater than 60% cash. (1) Investment account and (2) retirement accounts.
Buy/Sell: buying small, mostly initial positions
Bull/Bear: moderately Bearish
Inflation/Deflation: Deflation
Frame of mind: member of DENSA / hold for the medium term (1 month) or longer. Dancing
market bottom? don't know, don't care - acknowledge we are at a turning point
Methodology: using technical analysis on Fundamentally strong businesses - EMAs then Bollinger + MACD then + Stochastic then + RSI

market view:

Carnage. Technical Analysis just can't match market manipulations. The restriction on shorting stocks and market intervention by government is kicking TA butt. No new positions entered so far this week. Down just below break-even as the short position on the gold stocks has bailed me out this week for the stocks I am holding that have shown a interest in going down the playground slide. I still hold to my view that we are experiencing deflation. So far arguments about printing presses working overtime in the United States is just hot air. Yes, we are at a turning point. We may win a battle here and there, but the war is being lost.

Now we are seeing why there was a change in margin requirements for Monday September 29, 2008 (there is no margin on the penny stocks/small cap stocks) at Interactive Brokers.

Stock tip: visit ma and pa, the small farmer. You'll find they don't (well - maybe limited use, I am trying to make a point here) use Potash. Ask them why? Go to an Agri/Corporate farm and ask them why they over use Potash. Then maybe you will understand why the great fall in Potash. I am not here to do your work. Get out in the field and learn. Too many couch potatoes in this world.

and to repeat from my posting of Friday September 19, 2008:

[Now just because I said the Bear market is alive and well, there will still be opportunities in select stocks. We need to talk about those now. I am a longer-term equity trader and not into day trading (not convinced yet). Thank you very much. When the majority of the stocks I follow show negative Technical signals, it does not give me comfort to get in the market in a BIG way. That being said, I was a buyer today, but in a small way. Please, if you have a longer view of this market wait. I want to see some price data (series) showing that happy days are here again.]

Happy days are not here quite yet. Put some money to work, but keep some powder dry. And forget about the last "Highs" on some [hyped] stocks in the last year. Faulty logic can make you believe that they will get back to those levels. The same logic that will get me elected to Congress in November. [060]

[Bill Cara note:

I really like the tone you set here.]

rugger09

I like agriums lower p/e of 7 compared to potash's p/e of 14

Agrium is not just a pure play on potash i believe a better diversified company ie: potash,phosphate and nitrogen...

sv

RML.V (Rusoro Mining),
The darling of Venezuela mining and the poster child of what Venezuela would like to see all miners mirror hits a two year low today @ .53/share. 13% drop on the day.

Well, the ball is back in the Fed's court. The Euro zone central bank refused to budge on interest rates, I suppose they can keep up appearances a little longer and bail out any bank that has a hand out.

Not so the U.S. Bond yields remain low, so there is lots of room to cut rates.

"The market in my mind is on the verge of shutting down. There is sand in the gears and the machine is about to break down on the side of the road.

It is nearing the time when my next post will be an obituary for the fixed income market."

http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=1773

Craig,

Asking a potential VP candidate which newspapers they read is relevant how? I expect the "journalist" to ask RELEVANT questions on policy views like Bill O'Reilly did with Obama a week or two ago. Did Bill ask Obama which newspapers he reads? yeah I didnt think so...its NOT relevant!

Do you really think voters are going to make a decision on a candidate based on which newspapers they read? Maybe the elitist would - which Couric is part of the MSM elitist crew! Basically Couric did NOT do her job! Now go back to watching your soap opera Craig!

[Bill cara note:

Rob G, I have already said that had I been a voter, I would have voted Republican 4 of the past 5 elections. But I cannot see how anybody has put the blocks to Gov. Palin. She has done this to herself. I think 90% or more of people who are truly independent and objective would agree with me. I don't hold anybody responsible -- it's just what happened. She couldn't answer the simplest questions in different interviews that clearly she could have if back in Alaska, doing her job as Gov. She's probably a fine person. The majority of Americans probably like her looks and personality. But let's not ignore the issue, which is that she is running for VP of the USA, and I think most objective people would think at this point that she doesn't measure up. She's out of her league, and the world now sees it. She has a final opportunity tonight to prove most of us wrong. We are pulling for her because we are fair-minded people. From what we see, however, she's not up to it.]

Getting prepared for the soap opera tonite.

http://tinyurl.com/49c7qv

"a swig of beer whenever Palin mentions the first name of a member of her family or utters the phrase "Let me tell ya,"; a shot of whiskey for the 'Bridge to Nowhere.'"

I'm still amazed by Warren's "dumb" comment.

Didn't he read the bill before spending his hard-earned cash?

“Capitalism without failure is like Christianity without hell" - Warren Buffett

Me have a feeling Warren's getting arrowed tomorrow...

http://tinyurl.com/5ynlof

I would pick neither POT or AGRI - had the annual reports for both of them and too many glossy photos. :)

http://tinyurl.com/5x982y

Though I would have liked to have actually purchased POT when I was looking at it a couple years ago, I think they've had their speculative runs and will resume being what they are.

Fertillizer companies.

These are darn interesting times!

Chicken...Come over we're having satay for dinner.....

Get ready for more downside (from Time magazine):

"A senior Democrat House aide in a position to know tells me they are still short on GOP votes on the bailout, er, rescue plan. Unless more names of Republicans committed to switching their votes are produced by tomorrow the vote will be postponed till the weekend to give Bush and the GOP more time to convince their members to vote for the deal. Fearful of a Monday repeat, Dems are refusing to bring the bill to the floor unless the have the actual GOP whip counts - including names - showing they have enough votes, the aide said."

---------

Rob, take a powder. Your partisan ranting is not changing any minds.

She is a not a national politician involved in national and international affairs. Asking her what sources she consults help keep her informed on issues she otherwise has no contact with through her existing job is certainly relevant.

Any of us here could rattle off a list of serious publications that are fairly non-controversial at will, even if bluffing. Ask me and you wouldn't get a blank stare and overflowing BS, you'd get:

NY Time, WaPo, Wall St Journal, Economist, Foreign Affairs, Der Speigel, Newsweek, Time, Financial Times, Atlantic Monthly, New Yorker, etc, etc.

Bill O'Reilly is your epitome of a journalist? He who badgered and quarelled with Obama? But Katie Couric firmly but politely asking Palin questions is gotcha journalism?

The MSM are elitist in the sense that they subscribe to the rules of Washington society. That doesn't mean that anyone who doesn't care about Washington's political rules is qualified to be president.

This country, and the world, is in what Buffet refers to as an economic Pearl Harbor. Every politician should be able to handle the toughest questions, especially now. This is no time to give any politician the benefit of the doubt.

The only news shows on TV trying to get at the truth are on Comedy Central. That is the state of this country. The US was in a state of political delirium before 9/11 and we were in a state of economic delirium before this bailout. But things are changing...

That is good, but I am scared in the sense that a resentful underclass can propel totalitarianians to power as we have seen in the 20th century. We need positive change now before people give up on the system.

Guys, I think this is what's gonna happen.

Tomorrow the market will sell off hard, 5, 600 points on the increasing possibility of no bailout.

Then no bailout will happen and some congressman will say something along the lines of "I will never vote for a bill that puts the interests of Wall Street above the interests of the American people" and on Monday when it is clear there is no bailout we will see a multi-thousand point selloff which WILL be the buying opportunity, once things bottom in a cacophony of selling.

Rob:
Are you saying it would be irrelevant if she answered that she read only the Koran, the NY Times, The Huffington Post, the Daily Kos and The Rainbow/Push Coalition Newsletter?

Come on Rob! LOL!

No Rob, those questions had already been dispensed with over a couple years of campaigning against Clinton.

Yes Rob, I do, especially if they are relatively new to most of the voters and they have questions about the candidate. Apparently most of those questions have been answered about Obama over a couple years. We haven't had a chance to get to know about Sarah Palin and we deserve the right to ask whatever we want, it's OUR job interview. If she throws herself out there to fix our country we have the right to ask which service manuals she reads. It's not any more complicated than that.

Besides, you answer your own dogma by calling Katie Couric, someone you don't know anything about, an "Elitist", which is still more mumbo jumbo. Apparently it would disqualify Palin if she watched Katie Couric.
And you still provide no sources of corroberating evidence for your senseless accusations. Do you personally know Ms. Couric?

Jim Crammer is calling for Dow 8300 if we don't get the bailout! So 2000 point drop from here might happen. I might get some options tomorrow to go either way on the DIA.

Good Luck gov Palin, show us what you got!

I am with you Shark. I think there is too much momentum on the downside to stop this no matter what, bailout or no bailout. The averages are misleading as many of the midcaps got destroyed today; Russel set new lows; transports down 12% today!

But a bailout will hopefully set up a bull after the market clearing event.

Moab,

Bill O'Reilly is a fair journalist compared to most out there. If you watch him enough you would know. Believe he is not my favorite, but he is MUCH better to watch than Keith Olbermann who is a left wing nutjob! If Obama wins, he will have nothing to talk about and his ratings will fall more than they have recently.

I apoligize to all for the political slant - I will move on...

Have a good evening!

Craig,

I am saying that asking the question is not relevant and does not give voters any insight to her POLICY views.

Important point....

Dow 10,000 is support on a long term chart, as in a decade monthly. A significant fall below 10,000 that stays below 10,000 will auger for the BEGINNING of a downmarket of a more significant duration that a year or two. It would potentially be the beginning of a "Big Bear" that could last a decade or more. It's within the context of these potentialities that I recommend buying on the day of a multi-thousand point drop. It wouldn't be a long term investment, but something that could last a few weeks or months.

Extremely bearish news in the short and medium term in my opinion. GE is "AAA" rated, and yet had to come running into the hands of buffet on those terms?

> Finally, I note that Warren Buffett has made two > new investments this week that he believes will
> pay off significantly in future years: Goldman
> Sachs and General Electric. Did you see
> that these are Cara 100 companies?

Shalom!

In fact guys accept the truth that we're all sitting around trying to figure out when to go long stocks when if this weren't an upside down world (no short selling) the duh no-brainer move involves the SALE of listed securities.

I am thinking some of those Representatives may just prefer re-election to saving the international banking cabal.

Rob:
In 2000 President Bush had three policy issues.
Name them and what has become of them.

Let's add the hint....two of them are pathetic failures that got much worse and one was done right away.....

Experience and where people get information and news, matters Rob.
You are free to think otherwise, but it's my vote.

All: Non Fiscal post so skip since I might ramble...

Shark: on F*A*S*C*I*S*M

Sadly the lesson is, we are all human, The United States still has great pride and many people believe, it couldn't happen here.

This is pride to think the United States couldn't or wouldn't fall in this human frailty thinking we can can dictate proper behavior. (Without accounting for all the players)

Others:
Bill's hope of social equity, my hope of social kindness, our hope for a land better for our children... will happen, but first it must come at the cost of losing the pride of thinking we aren't socially also capable of darker deeds.

Sadly the United States , and the larger "Economic System" has to learn this lesson first before things will get better.

No amount of us showing the facts will change others views (or the current system for that matter) to this, becuase, Human nature seems to require we live through those facts on a periodic basis to remind us, we are human.

That is the key and why social equity is an important issue. The current larger economic system has been de-coupled from a truly human experience. So it can grow worse and worse in its effects and despite our ability to show its being bad... It isn't accountable to human values anymore.

That is the hardest to define part of the several steps that Bill suggested to fix the social equity problem. That is corporate powers need to be treated equally to punishment of their problems. But I know Bill has touched on this in his discussions also.

I personally believe if a corporation performs a crime, then they should be removed from being allowed to do business, that their corporate license be revoke for a period of time to equate to a jail term in human terms... You would bet that that would force social equity quite quickly if they were held accountable in some realistic fashion to human social concerns.

And before anyone shoots holes in this statement, please be aware I am just talking very generally here.. no deeper specifics really. I'm just agreeing to Bill in the point that social equity requires social justice... and the current set of justice systems are in no way tied in proportional ways to the financial systems. As a result we now are going into F*A*S*C*I*S*M. We will experience much worse before the tides shift to balance out the equations, since currently there is no reason for the larger players to change how they play. Thing wont change until the current system breaks, and it is still far from breaking despite the problems we now have. As we can see the current set of faces manipulate it to stay alive...

Just reality. Feel free to argue these points, I won't respond, since argument is just hot air...

What isn't hot air is this:

Make a difference by living the difference you want to see. You can do that here and now. I know, since that is exactly what I have been exploring and it's possible. Don't wait for others to tell you how, don't listen to others like myself or Kaimu declare problems... Reading about a problem doesn't solve it... Seriously just begin to experiment and making difference in your life locally now.

If you find someone who makes sense and can help you , then do so, but don't wait for someone to save you, that is each of our own personal job to do, that is life, our life we get to live. So live it and make it better...

or you can watch about it in the news... and ...
that is just watching not living isn't it??

That is the funny thing... I will never say we need to go out and revolt. I think we each need to live well to our lives, kindness and responsibility and strangely that "can" be enough to make the difference.

I suspect this style of silent change is what the current system would fear the most in the end.

I don't know, I just know in living the way I do now, I have save more lives and made a bigger difference than when I was part of the larger system trying to make a difference from the larger angles...

In many respects, isn't that what Bill has done, isn't he approaching this from a personal level, trying to help others directly with this communication to make the choices for their lives in a better manner?

I just want to point in the end while to communicate is part of the key, the more important part of the key in the end is: the personal choice for people to start living to their lives...

peace

[Bill Cara note:

Casey, I am proud to know you. Thanks.

And Rob G and Craig, you may have different perspectives, but being able to showcase your views is why I wanted this blog to exist. Thank you as well.]

SiO2 was asking what Don Coxe is saying? He was just on BNN. If you missed it you can catch the video when they post it in a few hours on their site, BNN.CA.

btw, he said he was a buyer today of certain commodity producers although he would give names and that today's selling was crazy.

Uhoh!

Guess what price United Airlines parent closed at today (UAUA)?

Nine dollars and eleven cents!

Craig,

I am not trying to change your vote or opinion. I am only communicating my opinion here. That IS what we do here isn't it?

If I remember correctly, Bush's policy views in 2000 were to:

1. Privatize Social Security - failed due to not obtaining sufficient voted in Congress which is unfortunate as I beleive MOSt Americans would rather invest in the stock market long term than investing in t bill earning 1-2%
2. Cut taxes for all Americans - successful and helped the economy grow. Added historical tax revenues to the government coffers.
3. Make the tough foreign policy decisions others did not like following through with the Clinton Admin policy of regime change in Iraq. - I will not touch this subject as I could be here all night...

These were what I remember - I may be incorrect...

Alright all, What is the plan? What are the backup plans?

After a much enjoyed break from doing any trades for the last week and a half(just watching in amazement and horror).

From what I see:
1. physical gold is becoming hard to come by, and the paper traded gold price is dropping. (I called two gold dealers in the area and they won't sell anything for a price below $1000 no matter what the paper price is because they said they can't find anyone who is willing to party with their gold.)
2. It seems interest rates are starting to climb. Bloomberg has multiple news stories with examples of this.
3. There is the possibility that the Rescue bill won't pass. But there is also the possbility that it will.
4. All the mining stocks took a huge hit today. Is this only because of the dollar strength?

Foxfire 3.0,
I just downloaded this browser and it is way faster than IE. I had delays on many pages that I would load with IE, but no delay with Foxfire.

So, far this market has created
frustration--Yes
confusion----Yes
despair-----No
Fear---NO

Re: SLW cashflow per share - I show the operating cash flow for Q2 at $36 million. If we multiply that by 4 quarters (I know very uncertain) - then we get annual operating cash flow of $144 million. There are 223 million shares outstanding. That gives an annual operating cash flow of $0.65 per share - for price to cash flow of 10.

Cashflow information - http://tinyurl.com/3tjsxa

Everyone agree with those numbers?

Quentusrex - "Is this only because of the dollar strength?"

No. Among other reasons, hedge funds unwinding, dumping everything on the way out the door. Take a look at the AG commodities also. Same picture. IMO.

Different pressures on Congress to pass the bill. For example:

Solar industry urges Congress to pass tax credit

http://tinyurl.com/4fx3v4

ESLR and others may be in play up or down tomorrow or Monday depending on what happens and when.

No position.

vinod- the good, (it's) bad, and (it may just get) ugly...

(a) last friday (which already seems like a year ago) was the high of the year...
(b) today i took an 11% hit to the port, which, added to other losses/a few gains makes it a 16% hit since the beginning of the week...that's more than a dent, it's major body work that will require a 20% gain to make up...
(c) guess i should have a plan in place should it gap down to 8300 tomorrow (and this is a serious plan)-> i'm going to sit tight, embrace the unwinding of the excesses of the last 10 years, and get on with life...(i don't think this is what happens, but it may, so you should be mentally prepared, my friend)...

Re: media, palin and all the mumbo jumbo!

First off I would have to say I am consevative but no longer can support my party.
As someone or two here may or might of not done the same. Essentially the two party system is a fools game from the macro scale. I think nemo said something luke that. I now, can totally agree.

Media isn't fair to all, all the time. Take Obama on the view vs McCain. Where those objective shows? Depends on your perception?
Either way, if you sign up for it. You signed up, granted it might have not been disclosed on the brochure.

Palin- I would know to much about the cleric interview as I have removed myself from the circus.

My thought as I read all the posts is the following.
She might surprise some as the bar has been set so low.

--->heard this in some movie or something but not sure the specifics.
"Some people walk around and think they are lions, infact they are lambs. The are those that can appear to be lambs but reveal that they are lions"

Let's see what happens tonight. Besides they are veeps that are a heartbeat away from being the powers whooping boy/girl!

Where is the true leadership?

[Bill Cara note:

Norm, I think in 90 minutes we are about to discover a truth. Gov. Palin will be the person Sen. McCain had expected when he and his colleagues selected her or she will not be up to the task. Her performance will speak for her. Despite the spin masters who will clog the airwaves tonite, we shall make up our own mind. If we really are fair-minded people, our assessment and comments will be objective. Even if we happen to be voting for the other side, we will be fair, and rate her performance on its face. I shake my head in disbelief that the performance we saw from her in various interviews so far is that of a serious candidate for VP; but, tonite after 9pm ET she will establish her place in history. I wish her well.]

Norm,

I agree with you. This whole bailout mess has me sick as well. I may in fact vote for Ron Paul...

Good eveing...

Rob

shark- glad to see you've been sharpening your claws...when you see your opening(s), don't hesitate to swoop in for the kill...a trader can build a significant stake in a market like this one...

could also be a stake to the heart.

got a bad feeling about tomorrow.

$naa50r (% of Naz stocks trading above 50 DMA) is now 15. Indicator has been at this level 2 other times. One is the Sogen crisis in Jan and the other was July 2006 (can't remember crisis du jour).

$cdnx:$vxn shows it to be at the lowest level in 3 years. But it doesn't show capitulation.

[Bill Cara note:

I must agree with you on this point. I thought we saw capitulation on Monday afternoon, but this situation in Washington has me thinking that anything can happen here. The whole situation is surreal.]

Here are a couple of comments which apply to SKF.

Did the SEC's Short-Selling Ban Really Limit Volatility?

Finally, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said today that its selective short-selling ban has been extended until just prior to midnight on October 17. However, judging by recent activity in the stock market, the SEC's ban hasn't been too effective a buffer against sharp downside moves. In the first hour of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 224 points at 10,608.

http://tiny.cc/SW4A2
--------------------------
Watch Out for Broken ETFs

http://tiny.cc/raBYC

wavesmash- it's only a stake to the heart for those who are not mentally prepared...whatever the markets do tomorrow is just the collective reaction of global investors to the current crisis...personally, i'm not in a position to take advantage of a spike down (i'm only able to take advantage of a spike up), but if you are, take advantage of it...if you're not, i wouldn't get caught up in the emotions-> i'm ready to see the positive aspects of a sell-off, and always ready to enjoy the positive aspects of a rally...

$cdnx oversold monthly weekly daily.

Here are a couple of comments for those interested in SKF:

http://tiny.cc/raBYC

http://tiny.cc/SW4A2

2nd
When I mention to one of older trader here that I am in stock market.
He advises me to keep 25% cash all the time.
Many time I felt to go 100% in stock because they look so cheap, but I fall back to that advice of 25% in cash and did push the button

Well, so many stock look cheap, but they can go lot more cheaply, example is
I thought I got good price for GE/SU/GG today but they are more than 50 cent lower than what I paid
I was closed to even this morning but now I am down 5% (7K)
Instead of 10 to 20 contracts on OEX I am doing only 2 to4 but it help me minimize my loss
Brought OEBKM 4 contract at closed
I will always keeping mind that if stock went from 200 to 50 is cheap
It is not it can go down to 10 even this can happen to APPL
I am enjoying and having fun, thanks to BILL and personally you and many other

if the 'toxic' assets on the books are cancerous growths that can and have spread to every part of the economy, then a "Nay" vote tonight is like saying Yes to chemo(therapy); not so much a bioengineered antibody like Imclone's Erbitux that targets specific receptors, more like aggressive therapy with platinum compounds that can destroy healthy tissue and maybe even take out an organ or two...buy hey, if that's what the American people want, i'll support the decision..

^VIX ^VXN are giving RSI sell signals.

However, VIX has not made a higher high with a diverging MACD on the hrly chart. Looks like it's setting up.

VXN not chartable on Bigcharts.com intraday.

QLD giving a buy signal and MACD appears to be confirming.

6 buys, 3 accumulate on DJIA.

I have the stocks listed that make up 50% of SP500 market cap. 6 buy alerts, 1 sell. WFC, LOL.

Time cover. "New Hard Times".

not perfect but bottoms usually hit in 30 days.

Economist. World on the Edge

Shark - According to Wikipedia: While various attempts to define Fascism have been made, the problem scholars often run into is that each form of fascism is different from any other, leaving many definitions as too wide or too narrow.

Words have meanings. However, in today's environment, too few people actually look up word meanings. Too often we rely on the suggested or sublime meaning imparted to us by the various sources.

As a US citizen, many of the acts I was taught represent the enemy, I now see my very own country performing. As you, I find this deeply perplexing.

However, I would submit to you, we must be careful with our use of words with cloudy definitions which may be used as a slogan or label to align the ignorant behind a cause for which they have little understanding. I would liken its use to conservative, liberal, right wing, left wing.

Here are the BNN videos, which most here will probably have seen or heard the same material in the last month:

Tom Barrack

pt. 1

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip98221

pt. 2

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip98222

Don Coxe

http://watch.bnn.ca/headline/october-2008/headline-october-2-2008/#clip98265

[Bill Cara note:

Anybody watching the Fox network O'Reilly Factor tonite with his interview with Barney Frank (let's watch the replay!) at 8:20pm ET has watched a revolution in play. In my adult lifetime, almost 50 years, I have never seen such a display. While I cannot stomach O'Reilly, I respect his ripping Frank. The public of America is fed to the teeth with their elected representatives being on the take. O'Reilly is expressing the emotions of the people. I can't fault that. But, I do think if you watch the entire video of their confrontation tonite, you will be shocked.]

Rob, I have to repectfully disagree about the relevancy question. Like Norm, I'm a conservative (though in reality mostly resemble a Libertarian)that is fed up with the entire political system.

I like Palin as a choice for the republicans only because she really does look like change. But I don't see her as being ready for the most powerful job in the nation. As Bill says, we will find out soon enough. I once asked my late grandmother (also a conservative) why she voted for JFK and she told me it was because he was very handsome. The guy actually turned out to be a great president too..but go figure, a lot of people vote for the wrong reasons.

Anyway, back to the relevancy of what one reads/watches. I was once selected to be on a jury for a major lawsuit brought by 2 employees of a local defense contractor against the employer for a chemical exposure incident. My brother was a paralegal at the time and was somewhat familiar with the case and told me that I should expect two months minimum on the trial. I could not afford this, so I had to figure a way out.

When the attorneys, who by law can exclude up to two (or 3 can't remember) jurors for whatever reason they wish came to question we who were already seated. The plaintiff's attorney first asked me if I had a degree of any kind and I told him that yes I had a BS in Agriculture (which was true). His SECOND question was what types of magazines or newspapers I read? I said Scientific American, National Geographic, Wall Street Journal in that order. Partially true, because I didn't really read SA, but I wanted a way out.

It worked like a charm and I was the first juror to get booted. I remember walking past the judge's bench that day and he winked at me because he knew exactly what I had done.

So clearly, it's important to people what your influences are and the media that you pay attention to is a very good indicator of that.

[Bill Cara note:

It scares me sometimes that so many people listen to me! I try to tell you my biases, and I do state my values and put my opinions, right or wrong, on the line; but sometimes I find the dynamics of this blog too much to handle. I am one of you. I put my pants on (or my bathing suit, which I'm still wearing 11 hours later) same as you. I am you -- nothing special. All I do is express my opinions, give you the best of my experience, and leave it at that. Like the best traders, I cannot be right more than 66% of the time. I hope I can reach that standard! The best thing I can do here is to draw you out of a shell so that you want to participate in the Discourse. Then we are all winners.]

"The market has become quite indecisive," says Larry McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, a money management and trading advisory firm. "Neither bulls, nor bears, seem confident as both fear an explosive move against them."

Political changes we are witnessing in public opposition may be in the way the genie coefficient has risen in the United States in the last few years.

The status quo says the political system guarantees certain priviledges at the upper levels which have not been felt at the lower levels in years, so the power structure errs on the side of aggressiveness when it comes to demanding a bailout.

The consequences of this bailout on the political level can be much more devastating than watching Wall St. go broke.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient

wavesmash-what is the difference b/w Palin's "let me tell ya" and Obama's "let me be clear"? I cannot follow politics like some others can, I think they are all crooks. My father told me that 30 years ago and it still holds true today. As of now, I don't know who I will vote for in a month....that is troubling to me.

btw-robg is my brother.

Getting back to the market, I too have taken a pounding this week. I am not of the view that Shark opines, but it's certainly a possibility.
I have a feeling we will be hearing about alot of hedge funds going under soon.

2nd and vinod-hope things turn around for you, as well as others here. I also got heavily long last Friday...ct back a bit today. its ashame politics are what is moving the markets recently.

how many think that we will see a rate cut before the next FOMC meeting? I think we could see one tomorrow or Monday.

I want to watch the debate, but my Dodgers start at 9:30 this evening. Most people have never heard of Chad Billingsley, but he is the Dodgers ace, and I hope he proves it tonight.

FranSix, thanks for Video post's of Barrack & Coxe.

Not to change the subject (from politics to trading) but I haven't read too much today about the obliteration of the TSX(TSE?) in Canada this week. We had two record down days this week (in points). I'm staring at a chart of AGU right now, trying to get my head around a major Canadian Bank's recommendation of one month ago that this one should head to $160 within 1 year. It's down from $85 to $40 in the last 2 weeks.

Is the whole Canadian Market just a screaming buy right now?

Which reminds me of something I have noticed over the last few years: On days when the US markets are on holidays (US players are at BBQ's) and Canadians aren't, volume of trading on the TSX drops about 50%. Makes me wonder: who is driving this market in Canada? Deleveraging US investment houses/hedge-funds or Canadians?

I think we all know the answer to that, and the same thing probably can be said about other markets like India/China/Brazil which have been slaughtered this year: American money pulling out and heading home? Explains quite a bit of the US$, C$, Yen, etc movements of the last while also.

[Bill Cara note:

I think after the first hour of the debate tonight that Gov. Palin has acquitted herself well. She will likely be called the winner! Most of us can eat crow.

Do I believe her? No, I think, from what I read into this that she is bought-and-paid-for by Exxon (XOM). But that's something we need to discover. Let's do the research. I say that objectively.

Tonite, the great state of Alaska can be proud.]

vinod -

"I will always keeping mind that if stock went from 200 to 50 is cheap. It is not it can go down to 10 even this can happen to APPL ..."

Ditto. MOS went from 67 to 40 in one day. I have not traded in a major market crash before, and the wild-swing of price is rather shocking. This remind me of a phrase "anchoring" and how sometimes 52w high often interferes with the actual value in a present context - a deflationary economy.

http://tinyurl.com/3j357k

To FUNNY!!!
go to link!

StrategeryCapital Management LLC
"Putting your money where our mouth is."

http://tinyurl.com/4cckkl

Click the navigation links too... How true....

My apology if this was posted before..

I always have an idea. Show a map of world to the president, vice president and all 4 candidates, ask them to point out the locations of North Korea,Iran, Iraqi, Afghanistan, China, India,etc in the map. I strongly believe the entire world will be shocked by the show,although I am sure Palin probably could identify the location of Russia.

Smallcap-old news....move on.
I am sure Obama knows where to cash the checks from FNMA.

The risk of an imminent mini-crash in the U.S. stock market has risen dramatically. A number of the technical, sentiment and monetary indicators we follow suggest that next week could produce a broad, large and quick move down in prices that could mark the bottom of the bear market that began in October of 2007 [our March 2007 and January 2008 research reports on our website detailed our bearish call on the market and the extent of the expected decline].

The employment releases tomorrow, a surprise on the House vote, a major insurance company bankruptcy or a myriad of other negatives could be the catalyst for the decline. If the market does experience a major decline, then we'll begin to finally invest cash for the new bull market that we expect will follow.

A major decline would lead to a response from the Fed so we expect them to announce an emergency cut of 50 basis points in the federal funds rate from 2.00% to 1.50%. Coordinated cuts by other international central banks could be the catalyst for the bear market low. A massive upturn in stocks prices would follow. JWibbs
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

can we get a candidate that say *NUCLEAR* and not *NUCULAR*?

that's all i'm asking for, town mayer palin.

Or "characteristic"....I mean "characterize" or which is it

WOW - Fox and O'Reilly with Frank!

Simply amazing... I don't have an opinion for O'Reilly as I never watch him... arrogance comes to mind but I can respect that.

I did appreciate the approach with Rep Frank from Mass.
We MUST have more media pundits challenge our elected officials.

Why can't the pass a clean bill?
How does TARP become 450 Plus pages?
How is good for the ones they represent?
I find it insulting, that they use that to get elected and please special interest in their area. It is a slap in the face to all of us that bust our behinds on a daily basis. For gosh sake, all we are asking is for these banks to build some trust and begin lending to each other.
Why can't those banks take a leap of faith? If they don't start lending wouldn't they only be grabbing a shovel and digging their own grave anyways?

Again, I would of loved to see them in the same room across from a table.
*******
Another Note... Was listening to Fox Business news... Someone said something about TARP on how it gives the treasury authority to seize any financial asset it sees fit.
Before anyone freaks (me especially, I am going to try to rip through the document and find that. I'll post if it is found.

Jesse's Cafe Americain had an interesting post tonight about the possible reason behind the high TED spreads - a shortage of US dollars in Europe and possibly elsewhere. It may explain why the US dollar strengthened so quickly and why that trend may reverse quickly as well.

A piece of the puzzle perhaps.

http://tinyurl.com/4mxed4

Just look at 84 charts of mutual funds (Fidelity, Invesco, Rydex) 95% plus are at new lows.

FSNGX, Fidelity Natural gas, -50% in three months.

This tells me we may get a snap back rally, but there is no structure to charts on which to trade on.

Palin's taking the pressure well and not as tight as when the debate started. Still prefer Ron Paul.

I have not heard Gwen Ifill ask Palin and Biden which newspapers they read? Why is that?

Bill - I too enjoyed watching O'Reilly drill Barney Frank this evening - that is the problem with Dems today 0 they think just because Bush is still in office they can point the finger at Bush yet the Dems control the Senate and the House and control the various finance committes - please go to youtube and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs

Bill:

Saw that on O'Reilly with Barney Frank, and he's my Congressman. Interesting times. Being from Massachusetts (just don't call me a masshole) Barney is beloved. This is as left a state as there is. He's going nowhere. This state has never voted Republican as long as I've been alive.

Somebody was talking about the cash flow on SLW (Bill I sent you the numbers)-be careful about your calculation. There seems to be a same quarter comparison you need to do and possibly a factoring. You might be looking at $340 million in operational cash flow divided by 229.453 million shares for $1.48 a share.

Rob-its a debate...not an interview....hehehe
Dodgers-5
Cubs-0

time for an Amstel Light

From my Independent pov, Palin's performance is going to be seen as wildly successful esp. in light of how low the bar was set for her or arguably by herself.

Just based on unemployment claims the past month coming in typically 40,000 additional each week above the month before, i'd say we are looking at a number at least 150,000, or maybe 200,000 of losses, and an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.3% or more. Neither of those in in the estimates (100,000 and 6.1%) as of this am.

To be honest, I think the sell off in gold and silver has about run its course. You can buy futures, but try and buy a coin at anywhere near a reasonable price. They aren't out there to buy. The futures market can drive the price for a while, maybe, but not long term, and all papaer currencies being weak will eventually leave gold strong because it can't just be printed or created with a tap on the mouse like paper promises of whatever flavor seem to be.

rayg,

Is Cubs fading D? This is disgusting. Sam Zell' porfolio will get a hair cut for sure!

RE: Jesse's Cafe about the dollar reversing..

Good for gold?

Anyone have thoughts?

Also- This document is Mind numbing... I WOULD WAGER my house that less than 50% of congress/senate actually read the whole bill. In detail the actual elected official not their staff.

Sheesh. I can't stand giving a darn about things now... But i do give a darn...
******

Nemo - not your district but the state of mass... was romney always a "republican".

Muhammad Ali versus Pee Wee Herman comes to mind.
Nothing can save McCain now, short of Obama confessing to be an Imam.

Bill:

Don't worry. We listen to what you say and then politely agree or disagree. Let's face it...you have an advanced skill set that can leave an observer somewhat awestruck.

the Cubs may have been looking ahead....Zell not too happy tonight....can;t wait for the Lou interview.

Pardon me Norm: never vote republican in a presidential election. Come to think of it, the last Republican Senator was Edward Brooke in the 60's. I don't know who the last republican representative was. We had Romney, then the stand in woman, the Lieutenant Governor for Weld (so memorable) and Weld, who were all Republican in name. In this state the State House rules. The Governor is basically a figurehead.

jaketh-how so?? lest we forget kerry's lead over bush in '04 before the election.

Nemo, I'll second that, except Bill's choice in NHL hockey teams. Sorry Bill, my dad is a leafs fan as well and I jab him every chance I get too.

My sanity could not have survived this market roller coaster without the collective opinions of this motley crew.

I am as long as I am short...trying to talk myself in starting to lean more long. But this chart of the S&P sure is starting to look like a double top to me....any thoughts...

This was so much friggin easier on our way to this point...I am about to just move to cash and watch

http://tinyurl.com/4cpksw

Rayg,
Just my sense of it. Reminds me of Carter-Ford.......voters wanted a flush after Watergate drama and the mood is the same now.

Jaketh-I see your point....I am still undecided.

can someone explain to me why Gov Pallin and all the rep. baised media attempts to link/identify Palin with "middle American's? IMO, she comes across as a poorly spoken country gal with the "you betcha's", "dog gone it's", "joe sixpacks" etc etc. why isn't anyone in middle America pissed that they're being characterized as poorly spoken and hick-ish? To me it's a total put down to middle-america to associate her poor grasp of english as "middle-american".

I was very upset today to see several of my big positions make new lows today (SLW, SWC, VLO). However, I am getting optimistic about tomorrow after seing all the negative mood on this blog and reading about Cramer's call for a 2000 point drop in case the bailout bill does not pass. Obviously, people who take him half-seriously have already reduced their positions today, so as to avoid being caught in the 2000 point drop. Therefore, the market should be up tomorrow and I will hopefully be able to sell some positions I bought today.

Thought and thought I would share...
El vino es muy fuerte....

Ok...

I can totally admit not only did wall street get drunk and congress enabled them....
Congress sold wall street the goods to get drunk.

What were they all concerned about a year a two ago...
steriods in sports! I could care less at this point. Yeah it is immoral but to have them sleep on the job and look at minor stuff, makes me sick.

Sure there are athletes juicing and taking drugs....
Meanwhile.... as the demo team, and pyros are infiltrating the states.... the match and detonator was started and ROME has begun to burn....

Lets debate stuff that doesn't matter. NOW we see republicans and democrats pointing the finger at one another while the LARGEST BLUNDER of financial history (lack of confidence) is taking place.

To believe that I took an oath to serve this country disappoints me. To those that don't know me, whenever I hear the national anthem, in respect to the colors, I stand at the position of attention. As I was just in vegas, stood at the POA at the belagio water foutain pool. Several people asked me why i did what and did, they were grateful.

Venting done. My apology.

The fear and loathing of Wall Street......
Once again, Wall Street is the place Americans love to hate.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/10/03/fraser_wall_street/index.html

republican biased media?? that's a first.

GGP Insiders Unload a Heap of Shares
By PETER EAV, Wall Street Journal

As it assesses the results of its short-selling ban, the Securities and Exchange Commission might want to take a close look at what has been going on at mall-operator General Growth Properties.

Executives at the company have been dumping its stock even after it entered the "no-short" list. In effect, short sellers were barred from selling GGP, but senior executives weren't, and they sold heavily.

The SEC on Wednesday extended the ban, which initially applied to 799 financial companies. The list expanded as nonfinancial companies were added. GGP, a real-estate investment trust, was added to the no-short list Sept. 23, four days after the prohibition came into existence.
Since then, GGP Chief Financial Officer Bernard Freibaum has sold more stock than other executives. From Sept. 23 to Sept. 25, he sold more than 1.6 million shares, reaping more than $28 million.

He had sold a slightly smaller number of shares around Sept. 19, which SEC filings attributed to margin calls. In other words, he had borrowed to buy GGP stock, and as negative news about GGP caused the shares to fall, Mr. Freibaum likely had little choice but to dump stock to pay off the margin debt.

Filings for later sales don't cite margin calls as a reason for the sales. Perhaps the sales were done in anticipation of expected margin calls. GGP and Mr. Freibaum didn't respond to a request for comment.
GGP's insider sales appeared to rile shareholder advisory firm Glass, Lewis & Co., which wrote to clients: "If executives want to sell their stock, investors should be provided the same opportunity.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122290873316896...

Iceman: You two really are cowboys.
Maverick: What's your problem, Kazanski?
Iceman: You're everyone's problem. That's because every time you go up in the air, you're unsafe. I don't like you because you're dangerous.
Maverick: That's right! Ice... man. I am dangerous.

If she said Maverick one more time I would have run out of beer.

wave-I know what you mean...."let me be clear" and "fundamental difference" kept ringing in my ears the last two debates.

By now we should all recognize that when we vote we do not vote for our representatives. We vote, instead, for our rulers. Do not expect them to represent your interests any more than you would expect your interests to be resepected by any ruler regardless of the governmental structure. Its instructive that we Citizens appear to have power over some House members especially those who are uncertain of winning reelection. Hey, being a ruler type - even if its as only one Congress person - is a good job.

Stinger: They gave you your choice of duty son, anything, anywhere. Do you believe that sh*t? Where do you think you wanna go?
Maverick: I thought of being an instructor, sir.
Stinger: Top Gun?
Maverick: Yes, sir.
Stinger: God help us.

Weak opening overseas seems to be getting stronger. It was a red sky tonight where I live. Should be a quiet day tomorrow?

been thinking which is either dangerous or stupid - as I can't define it....

my theory....

FIRESALE - everything must go because of greed. DH4 movie...

9-11.... powers take advantage of of situation and "restrict travel..."

Patriot act.... essentially hijack communications and get away with it, constitutionally how?

TARP - Financials - starting.... and we are losing.... only time will tell.

next? utilities... not sure how they will do it but as stupid as I sound who knows...

Welcome to the USSA....

unbelievable.... why we are not debating a actual plan that doesn't' smell of paulson. No debate, this way or crazy..

our forefathers are rolling in their grave...

David,

"Cramer's call for a 2000 point drop in case the bailout bill does not pass.."

I did hear him said that and also said that "stock" is a paper and no guarantee that it always go up ... He interviewed Wachovia's CEO the night or two before WB got ditched. He recommended WB @ $10.00. I think he "apologized" for that. So, when he told viewer to sell, they will run to the door lightening fast. Interesting that he also say to "sell into the rally". Mm...

I think both candidates did well tonight.

What disappointed me was the lack of time given to address the current financial crisis. Just like the first Pres. debate, the first questions was about the bailout plan and crisis and after that nothing.

To her credit, Palin did mention cleaning up Wall Street a few times but never got to anything specific. I don't think Biden ever mentioned it again.

Maybe I'm naive, but with all the talk of emergency in the press and Bush and company begging daily for a bailout, i would think they would spend at least a little more time on what seems like it should be the most important current issue.

I would think Ron Paul would have spent most of the time talking about how to fix these financial problems.

Rob.

Maverick: I can see it's dangerous for you, but if the government trusts me, maybe you could.
Charlie: It takes a lot more than just fancy flying.

Ok I gotta stop now. This is just too weird. Top Gun was filmed 22 years ago... wait that would mean Sarah was 22 when it was filmed... oh.... explains everything.

http://tinyurl.com/c8r9p

Tom Cruise will be the next secretary of state I guess...

http://tinyurl.com/3nyqoc

Hard to believe she went to school for journalism for 6 years at 5 different schools and knows less about the middle east than I do. Like who the biggest allies of the US are, um, Saudi Arabia?

http://tinyurl.com/4uu9rl

How is that diplomatic, anyway? "I thought I was your BFF?"

Here are the 5 Alaskan stocks that should do well tomorrow.

http://caps.fool.com/tag/alaska.aspx

Regretfully, after looking over the carnage of just two days of trading in October, I vote that the stock and commodity trading should be suspended. Yes Bill C, this is surreal. There just does not seem to be fair market valuations out there anymore. We have reached a point where there is a lack of buyers. Close the markets until a plan is worked out. And then slowwwly open markets when reason comes back. I am just watching in awe how the games around the current proposal in Washington is distorting fair play. I love watching the "Daily Show" with J. Stewart as it makes more sense of what is going on. [061]

Funny that we were just talking at work about upper-middle vs. lower-middle class.

http://tinyurl.com/3r2wfa

I think Sarah is probably on the verge of being out of upper middle... and into the upper-lower.

Why suspend the markets when there is still room for removal of speculative money? A few more days of this and we'll be back to saner levels where Bill's Bull Run of 2008 will hit us? What goes down, must go up. There's no way the RSI indicator is that broken that it can't fix a liquidity issue.

Interesting take that lack of liquidity from the "toxic" assets are spilling out into the global markets. Is GE toxic now? How about BRKB?

Why do I feel those greedy, corrupt, Wall Streetians will be voting for the McCain/Palin ticket?

http://tinyurl.com/42k4l6

Reading the first chapter of Buffett's biography, The Snowball, I see that he really likes CNBC. Explains the investment tie-in.

After watching the debate tonight I still don't think Gov. Palin is ready to be vice president and certainly not president. She is great when totally rehearsed and scripted and certainly has an amazing ability to remember a lot of material.

In reality, I think she's been rehearsed to react to "buzz words" and have canned responses ready. If they had a debate where she had to interact with the moderator or Biden more and had to answer direct questions those rehearsed responses would go away and the real Sarah Palin would return. That would be the one we saw talking to Couric, Gibson, etc.

So, I feel the people who've kept her hidden from inquiring reporters will continue with that and a certain amount of the public will be fooled.

I agree on the "nucular" mispronunciation annoyance (like Bush) and also the comment about the her folksy ways though charming to some do not necessarily equal middle America.

ALOHA !!

Well ... if you have to advertise you are SAFE then that worries me!

JP MORGAN AND WAMU ... Goodbye JP MORGAN!

"Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan has overhauled WaMu's advertising campaign to trumpet the new ownership. Although WaMu bank branches will ultimately be rebranded as Chase, it may take more than a year for the integration to be completed.

"We're now backed by one of the largest and most stable banks in America," says one radio commercial now airing in the New York area. The bank also is running newspaper ads that say "WaMu & Chase. Safe & secure."END

ALOHA !!

WOW ... the HUI hit was HUGE!! Lots of "buys" out there!

Warren will regret his recent buys! Just give the markets time to absorb the true value of the massive derivatives. So here Warren is buying GS when there is a "short ban" on banks. If he would just wait until the ban is lifted he could have gotten a better price! Or did "they" pull out the GENERAL RE card again?

Just thinking outside the box ...

ALOHA !!

WOW ... the HUI hit was HUGE!! Lots of "buys" out there!

Warren will regret his recent buys! Just give the markets time to absorb the true value of the massive derivatives. So here Warren is buying GS when there is a "short ban" on banks. If he would just wait until the ban is lifted he could have gotten a better price! Or did "they" pull out the GENERAL RE card again?

Just thinking outside the box ...

The market futures are all green now. I have been noticing lately that the market futures were "honest" in predicting the direction of the next day. So I am raising my hopes about an up day tomorrow. :)

stktrader: Rusoro (Venezuela) vrs. other gold stocks ...

RML was down 13%; GDX was down 14%; ABX down 14.5%; GG was down 17.5%; AUY down 19%.

Does that make Hugo Chavez is the best of a bad breed? LOL

Board,

*Mandatory* reading from Jesse's Cafe Americain.

Possible drivers behind the craziness we've witnessed yesterday:

On waves of credit default swaps incoming:
http://tinyurl.com/4qoh6c

On the unexpected USD strength:
http://tinyurl.com/4mxed4

Thanks to norm for posting the second link above; I just want to second that it is too significant to bypass.

"an obituary for the fixed income market."

this is becoming a real possibility?
Will the Matrix have to be shut down for reprogamming?
What will that do to the "real world"?
Hyvaa . . . perkele! (as the Finns might like to say)

The NAVs of the senior loan CEFs continued on down yesterday. Remember my post yesterday about buying corporate debt at a 40% discount to niminal? The discount just got even better.

But even more scary were the NAVs of NCV & NCZ (run by PIMCO's advisors) going down 5% - 6%yesterday.

Something wicked this way comes.

And it might just possibly be the little recognized CDS "opex" just starting up:

Moment of truth for default derivatives

Valuing of swaps will test the system

The Independent
By Sean Farrell, Financial Editor
Friday, 3 October 2008

http://tinyurl.com/3nxe6b

The credit derivatives market, worth some $54 trillion (£31trn), began its biggest test yesterday as an unprecedented round of settlement operations on derivatives contracts began,including those covering the debt of Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
. . .
Freddie and Fannie will be settled on 6 October, with Lehman on 10 October and Washington Mutual on 23 October.

_______________________________

JesseL has something on this:

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Have you wondered why the Treasury asked for a $700 Bn emergency package with the full force of the Fed behind them, and gave the Congress less than a week to deliver it?

Either these fellows have lost their nerve or the markets are riding to a fall, and it could be terrific.

We've been looking for some event, something that would have created such an extraordinary set of actions as we have seen in the past few days.

This just might be it. Special thanks to Yves Smith for flagging it.

Time to start settling those Credit Default Swaps for Fannie and Freddie (Oct. 6), Lehman Brothers (Oct. 10) and Lehman Brothers (Oct 23).

LIBOR is eight standard deviations from the norm, because the banks don't know who is holding what in their cards, but there might be some Aces and Eights in there. The TED spread is at an all time record high.

An insurance company is said to be heavily exposed.

Do you need to buy a vowel? Let's hope we get lucky.

Brace for impact.

This is a bear market in debt - not equities in the first place.

I reognized that nearly a year and a half ago - anyone recall NFI?
I owned it for years.
What happened to it "caught my attention", you might say.

The implication is still the same - watch what happens to the various "debt" markets, "fixed income" if you like that euphemism, and then try to extrapolate that to how equities might be affected.

Usually most ordinary folks are on the wrong side of every market - that's why contrarianism usually works.
However, in what the EWavers call a "3of3", i.e. the center of a major movement where it is obvious to all what is going on, everyone is right - for a short period of time.
And following contrarian signals will get you killed.

Are you a true patriot?
Then you agree to follow your supreme leader anywhere?

Bush I believe just said, re the markets:

"This sucker is going down."

ALOHA !!

GET REAL ...

Now I did not see the VP debates because I don't have TV ... by choice! I am to the point when we stay at hotels and I turn on the TV and see the first commercial I want to throw up right then and there! So no I did not see Palin's performance.

I think comparing the choices for VP leadership is a waste of time. Well, look at what we just had for the last eight years ... Cheney! Now there's a guy who called ever shot wrong and even literally shot an attorney in the face out hunting porcupine! HA!! What a joke ... here is 4F Cheney who draft dodged Vietnam ... who went from one heart surgery to the next, hiding out in bunkers during 9/11 all the while maneuvering his company Haliburton over to Dubai! Who would have been VP if Cheney kicked it? PELOSI? There's still a few more months left before Inauguration Day and PELOSI could still end up VP!

Here we have the first US President in history to BEG for help on TV to save America from financial catastrophe and yet we view his experience and credentials as impeccable? Whats wrong with that? I think a CHIMP could have done as good a job throwing darts at a "decision board" in the Oval Office! Next examine the US CONgress ... Where were they the past eight years? They certainly were NOT leading. They were NOT representing their constituents. They were NOT showing aptitude for anything other pork and ineptness! Someone start a list of all the failures of the US government over the past eight years and tell me what good "experience" is? Show me any "expertise" in leadership or strategy for anything? Show me the successes of the career politicians that infest government nowadays? These "experts" have wiped us out! We are beyond broke and beyond corrupt ...

WELCOME PALIN ... who cares? Just get off your ass and lead like our Founding Fathers would lead!!! Now that would be some "real" CHANGE worthy of voting for. Problem is neither party has FOUNDING FATHER APTITUDE! They both have plenty of PORK APTITUDE though ... Just the kind of virtuous leadership and high morals we can count on from the "experts"!!!

I liked Dennis Miller's comments about telling Palin to bring some pepper spray to keep Biden off her! HA!!

The US government is just a joke. Thank God our Founding Fathers are not alive to see what has become of the America they sacrificed their lives for. Heck, I am glad my own Father is not alive to see what America has become. He flew B29s over Japan in WW2 and watched many of his pals die so that there could be peace and freedom in the World. He would be in a deep depression watching this circus on TV, literally crying ...

Being an EMPIRE isn't all that its cracked up to be. Just ask the Brits! Certainly the US CONSTITUTION is not about EMPIRE ... in fact it is the opposite!

GLOBALIZATION ... Hey we globalized FRAUD ... Yipee ... we're all broke!!! Live by the sword, die by the sword!

IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T !!!

More cheerfull thoughts:

"Instability is now leading to a realistic threat that the Fed and Treasury could lose control of the deflationary process."

________________________________

Financial Eugenics: The Paulson Plan for Survivor Bias

http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/

. . .

America is now a centrally planned economy where the Treasury will determine which firms survive and prosper through allocation of scarce capital to an undercapitalised financial sector.

. . .

What is going on here is a blatant attempt to provide government funds to a select cadre of firms (not all banks) which are chosen to be the survivors feasting off the carcasses of their less fortunate and less well-connected brethren as the downturn intensifies in the years to come.

The crash in equities will still happen. The debt deflation of the economy leading to mass commercial and consumer credit defaults will still happen. The collapse of many national, regional and local financial institutions will still happen. The bankruptcy of many municipalities and shortfalls in state budgets will still happen.

This bill is about engineering survivor bias to friends of the Bush administration so that they profit disproportionately from the collapse of these markets using the funds provided by the taxpayer via the unreviewable and unconditional authority of the Secretary of the Treasury.

The basic plan is to set up a federal money laundering operation. Bad assets come in, get laundered by the Treasury and put in a new AAA “wrapper”

. . .

The Fed has no more good assets to trade for the bad assets the banks can offer. And the supply of bad assets just keeps growing as market illiquidity spreads further from the core of the mortgage backed securities market. Instability is now leading to a realistic threat that the Fed and Treasury could lose control of the deflationary process.

Talking about the hedgies, this on Kadrosky's blog:

Hedge Funds Eat Their Own Young

The nice thing about the hedge fund industry? Left alone in a room chasing returns long enough, it will consume itself and we will have one less over-levered bunch of crazies to worry about in this mass de-levering economy.

Today's evidence comes from a piece in the FT highlighting the various cannibalistic and generally sociopathic things hedge funds are doing to take advantage of each other's problems.

* Funds are mercilessly shorting the Goldman Sachs MVP list, an index of the most widely-held stocks among hedge funds. With hedgies selling frantically to meet redemptions, it is a way to prey on one another.
* They are watching for other funds winding down, and shorting the crap out of their holdings, hoping to thereby screw up other funds, thus causing more selling.
* It is so bad among widely-held hedge fund stocks that David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital has had a 17% down year, the worst in his fund's history, despite nailing the Lehman short trade.

As I said, the solution is to leave 'em all alone in a locked room for a while. Problem solved.

"Hedge Funds Eat Their Own Young"

This is like I posted the other day -

Now that the sharks have eaten all the other fish in the ocean, thay have turned on each other, creating magnificient turbulence, but otherwise nothing productive other than a gradual reduction in the number of sharks.

After sleeping on Palin's performance last night (or rather losing sleep), I am more worried than ever about this country. If enough people were fooled by her golly-gosh-shucks-darn "folksiness" that she becomes VP, I'm giving up. Bill, can I come to the Bahamas and be your dishwasher? Oy vey! I can't believe this.

I've really gotten hosed lately buying on the RSI "buy" signals. How do you handle it when the stocks just keep dropping?

Denny:

What's your time frame? They are one indicator. The macro environment is very negative with mass liquidations taking place. Even Bill has said this is a daytrading environment and that now is the time to begin positioning for long-term

Scary:

The S&P 500, down 24 percent this year, still trades for 21.2 times profit from the past 12 months. Only four of 48 developed and emerging nations tracked by MSCI Inc. -- Switzerland, Jordan, Colombia and Morocco -- have a higher price-to-earnings ratio, according to data compiled by Bloomberg yesterday.

Trading at 21.2 LAST 12 months. This should probably come down....

Please. Jim Webb represents VA not WV.

Yes, (I knew that. Duh!) I stand corrected.
Anyway, I like his outspoken, no nonsense approach to most things.

TED spread is 3.79.

Corner Stone,
"The US based papers certainly aren't promulgating the truth."
Right and also agree it was a nothing question, which like most things today, is magnified by a media system which thrives on controversy. Palin may have been thinking, "What is the trap in this one?"
For those in power these petty issues distract people from asking the questions they want to avoid.
We are going through a distillation process. When we eventually have one news source (the gov.), one bank (the gov.), one health plan (the gov.)... one retirement plan, one educational system, we will be a truly united states of america. (No caps needed or deserved.)
It's happening at an ever increasing speed.
Well, maybe we'll get classy uniforms and lots of decorations just like the Germany of the last depression era.
Goebels would have loved this ability to control global propaganda at the click of a mouse.
Seig... Heil!

Dear Beard;

Do you think the WB WFC deal this morning sets up NCC and SOV for a euphoria fade relatively early?

Good morning.

One Cara 100 Ratings Change to report:

ADBE - Downgraded to Sell @ UBS

---------------------------------------------------

Have a great day and a better weekend.

Case -

On your 3:45am post. Thank you for the link. The artificial USD demand is new to me. This is going to hurt earning for the global companies.

So what we really suppose to do... Pray or pay tax... what should us the common people do...we paid our taxes... we paid our mortgages... then politicians had coffee and pizza late at night figuring out what to bumble.. all week on Myinvestorsplace.com ...everyone has been commenting..chatting ...thinking what to do... and this has really become the issue...what are we to do.. .I would like to hear some suggestions... besides cut debt...cut back on expenses...Let us know...

Craig,

You are absolutely right — we are about to elect a president and a backup president.

The problem, as I see it, is — we are reduced (once again) to deciding based on packaging and then choosing product A&B or C&D (J&S or B&J). Out of 330 million people, this is what we have to choose from?

The bailout support by both is revealing.

I honestly believe the election is just the last illusion that We the People still have a say in our lives.

We have come to accept mandatory safety devices (seat belts, helmets, car seats), food restrictions, (no trans fats), speech limits (hate speech laws), and so many other top down impositions.

TV, CDs, DVDs, e-mails, text messaging, we are now wired to receive 24/7 BS.

When I reread "Brave New World" a couple years ago, I was shocked at the insidiousness of what is now "normal".

Would like to throw this out - auction results for Delphi CDS in Nov 2005.

http://tinyurl.com/49uqlv

After the bankrupcy announcement, the stock market took a bit of a dive. After the sale of these CDS instruments, it took off.

It looks like they got $0.60-$0.80 on the dollar if I am reading it right. Any CDS experts out there?

Even if they received a lower amount, wouldn't we see some spikes as capital moves out of these instruments and into equities?

Transcript of the debate from last night.

http://tinyurl.com/3vvquw

What if they had a bailout and nobody came?

Today is the "Moment of Truth" for Credit Default Swaps ... what if there are no bills in some of the wallets?

http://tinyurl.com/3nxe6b

nemo,

so far this is what happened. NCC traded above 4 earlier. Still is above yeaterday's high though. I however can't form any forecasts on a day like this. It's again going to be "headline by headline" up and down...

Also, our main difficulty IMO is: it's very hard to tell whether the market negativity of last days is comong from a)lack of faith in package passing or b)lack of faith in package effectiveness. Or both, lol. And this is important because it will influence immediate market set of reactions to passage/non-passage.

Who is the insurance company rumoured to have problems?

Kaimu,
I recently sent a copy of that entire speech to my son after I reread it. It is comparable to Mein Kampf for the Bernanke/Paulson we are experiencing!
While he did not mention gold, can there be any doubt "they" will simply confiscate it?
We may end up using Monopoly money or some other form of scrip. (with Ben or Henry on a $3 bill, grinning)

nemo, it might but is it possible to short sov and ncc?

Grym,
Sorry, I can't say I disagree.

I don't think Obama was planned, I think it was *supposed* to be Hillary V McCain (another non-choice), but the result is the same as the last several non-choices.

Sure seems pre-determined to me too.

A real leader would tell the truth and they have it rigged where truth tellers are knocked off early or accused of some silly transgression like "telling the truth", or the latest...sexism.
Like we can find politicians without a gender.

Hey, now there's an idea.....didn't the Romans use Eunics?

Let's line em' up........

http://tinyurl.com/3e7ada

More derivitives stench emanating from the Lehman Implosion. Billions of hedgie and bank $$$ tied up in the Lehman Bankruptcy--not in equity, but as collateral in brokerage accounts.

Palin's performance was ... [deleted]

sharky: no shortable shares available through Fidelity.

Just a personal bit of confession....

I entered forced retirement Sep 1, 2006 when my last good graphics client was exported.

When the economic squeeze trickled down to my barber, we shifted to barter. He has plenty of open time and so do I. Dollars are too precious to spend on non essentials.

Not sure how I will handle essential transactions when I need to spend my gold. (If a knock on the door doesn't eliminate that option like it has done with them getting into my shorts.)

One thing about Sarah....[deleted. This comment was blatantly sexist, and I received complaints. Next time you are banned again and that banning will be the final one.]

nemo I think our best chance is to let the bad banks re-trace and then go long. Could take awhile, don't want to be early on that bus!

Folks, They don't know what you have in your sock drawer. Are you planning on handing over any of your other possessions? Guns? Other forms of Money?
Why would you entertain giving the government your gold? You must be kidding. If we get there, then we have more than debates to worry about.

Shark, you trouble maker! LOL!
We're looking for a VP, not a MILF!

"One thing about Sarah....She's got LEGS baby...And a nice thin waist. ..."

Please, let's not get to this level.

Sharkster can always be depended on to go to the ....earthy, yeah earthy!!

Craig- Ever bought anything direct from the U.S. Mint? Lots of people have, so they know where some pm went. I have a copy of Presidential Executive Order 6102 from FDR dated 4/5/1933 in front of me. First line starts "Forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion...," etc. Why couldn't it happen again?

I was very impressed with Palin last night. To think she learned all that in three or four weeks! She obviously had first-rate coaching. You got to give credit to the republicans for knowing how to run a campaign.

markets up. If you held on to your stocks, you are doing good!

Craig,

Hey, now there's an idea.....didn't the Romans use Eunics?

Weeelll, that's kind of what we have in congress right now :-)

Isn't it funny how even a lot of those who were against it switch to yes as soon as the Sellout Bill added enough pork — including "I'm against earmarks", McCain.

There are so few who maintained their integrity.

Craig and Hulgar,

"...they know where some pm went"

I think they have a direct line to Santa Claus —

"He knows when you are sleeping, he knows when you're a wake. He knows when you've been bad or good..."

I over contributed to my Roth IRA in 2006 and withdrew it. This was reported (damn those computers) to the IRS and I've been hassled for the past four months by their anonymous sleuths.

Never mind it was tax paid dollars all around.

In 2005 after receiving a letter ("Our figures don't match with your numbers") I had to file a return in order to prove I had no need to file a return that year. The fact that I had filed every year since 1954 probably worked against me.

"They" probably see this site as prime prospecting territory. If nothing else we often say a lot of anti-government things here. Bill may be pulled out of the boarding line as a foreign subversive one day soon.

[Bill Cara note:

That would be their loss. I just spent over an hour of free time (that I don't have) in the past 24 hours, consulting to the SEC and offering the use of this website as a beta test site for a program they are working on. That's anything but being subversive. I just try to add value and I think there is value in criticizing stupid (and probably with illegal elements) legislation. Why was NASCAR paid off? Wooden arrows for children? Windmill technology? The people who added that pork into this bill and then changed their vote are almost certainly direct beneficiaries of pay-offs. What does that stuff have to do with the credit system breakdown? Sometimes, America can't see the crooks on the end of their noses. Dr. Ron Paul can, and for doing so he has been an outcast.]