The Lehman situation has been dogging the market for some time, but whatever was going on behind the scenes with respect to attempts to sell equity or assets must have blown up after the close on Tuesday because spreads on the Lehman debt exploded (meaning nobody would buy their debt). LEH plunged -77.5% this week. That situation became a replay of the Bear Stearns sudden death spiral where in a very few days, that once great company died.

Lehman is a much bigger name and more important to the smooth functioning of the credit ring than Bear Stearns, so traders began to panic. In what is referred to as the safe-haven trade, money quickly flowed into Treasuries, knocking down yields.

Although the monetary authorities were clearly trying to support the $USD on Wednesday and Thursday, traders also followed through by selling the Financials and rotating into the Energy and Basic Material sectors, which are basically Dollar hedges.

Finally on Friday the $USD plunged -1.6%. Sensing this, I recommended a purchase of Goldcorp (GG) on Thursday, and on Friday that stock rallied +13.7%. Barrick (ABX) was up +11.0% on the day as well.

But, as I write this WIR, there is no word as to how this Lehman situation will be resolved. The problem is much bigger than Bear Stearns, which cost the US Treasury guarantees of $30 billion, which likely will never be repaid. Lehman might cost double that, and frankly the public will not put up with it.

Moreover, Lehman is just the thin edge of the wedge. Other financial giants like Wachovia (WB -14.8% W/W, Washington Mutual (WM -36.1%), Merrill Lynch (MER -36.2%), and AIG (AIG -45.7%), for instance, are also looking very much like they are in distress and will need a bail-out. Since when have the biggest financial companies in America dropped so far, so fast?

In fact, why stop there? If every financial services company that is presently holding supposedly asset-backed debt instruments in inventory were to value those holdings at real cash market prices, there would be devastation across the board. Maybe a trillion dollars around the world – half in the US apparently – would need writing down, and that would result in the immediate need for most of these companies to raise additional capital. The problem is that most of them could not raise capital – like Lehman on Wednesday in the debt market -- without eliminating their existing shareholder equity.

This is why about a year ago, I called many of the HB&B components toast. The companies that have raised massive amounts of capital in the past year have already seen their market caps fall far below the new capital that has been raised. But the situation has not been resolved, and the extent of future write-downs are still unknown, so private capital and other banks are now hesitating making investments.

Independent traders are sitting back, having largely pulled their capital out of this market, and asking themselves why the authorities are not letting failed companies die. People are asking why supposedly free capital markets are not being allowed to do their job. They don’t believe the explanation that the US Treasury Secretary, for instance, is working in the public’s best interest, doing what must be done to save the people’s capital.

Just to save Fannie & Freddie, for example, will cost taxpayers what? The Administration says $200 billion, but others are thinking $1 trillion!

At this point, most of the credibility earned by people in authority has been lost. Nobody knows what’s going to happen next.

Meanwhile, the eye of powerful Hurricane Ike has just passed over the major US City of Houston. Nobody yet knows the extent of the damage there either.

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Global Economics Review

Weekly International Economic Report .

I encourage everybody to read these reports and discuss them in the Discourse, but check the publishing date if you are looking for the latest data. This one is current.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Economic Calendar.

US Consumer Credit for July. Econoday reported: “Growth in consumer credit slowed sharply in July, at $4.5 billion for the smallest rise of the year. The +2.1 percent annualized rate is also the lowest of the year. June's increase was revised down more than $3 billion to $11 billion. Growth in revolving credit during July was below trend at $3.9 billion while growth in non-revolving credit slowed to $0.6 billion to offset an $8.8 billion jump in June. The recent rise in savings, tied to tax rebates, may have limited the need for consumers to borrow. But given contraction in the jobs market and limited access to the home equity market, consumers may soon be returning to personal loans and credit cards.”

US Pending Home Sales for July. Econoday reported: “Pending home sales fell 3.2 percent in July to an index level of 86.5, offering no indication that the worst is over for the housing market. Sales showed high single digit percentage declines in the West and Northeast with the Midwest showing a small gain and the South unchanged. The only good news in the report is further moderation in the year-on-year rate, at -6.8 percent and improved from a long run of double digit decreases. But this improvement is tied more to comparison with depressed year-ago data than to the current pace of improvement. Given scarcity of available credit, the report sees little improvement ahead. Markets showed no initial reaction to the report though it may weigh on stocks and the dollar and pull Treasury yields lower through the session.”

US Import and Export Prices for August. Econoday reported: “Import prices, as well as export prices, fell back steeply in August in what, next only to $100 oil, is the best news yet on the price front. Import prices fell 3.7 percent in August, the largest single drop in 20 years. This index had posted eight straight monthly gains and mostly very severe gains as high as 3 percent. The year-on-year rate, now at +16 percent, peaked last month at a record +21.7 percent. Excluding a giant 12.8 percent plunge in petroleum, import prices fell 0.3 percent to end a long streak of 10 monthly gains. The year-on-year rate is still very high at +7.5 percent… The easing in pressure spread to the export side where prices fell for the first time in nearly two years, down 1.7 percent in August. Agricultural prices led the way, down 9.6 percent but are still up 24.8 percent year-on-year. Total export prices are up 8.2 percent year-on-year, down from a rare 10 percent rate in July… It is possible that the worst of the inflation scare is over. Oil prices are coming down and the economic pace here, in Europe, and in Japan has slowed. Pointing to easing pressure specifically on the import side is the ongoing decline in dollar, which on a trade-weighted basis jumped 2.7 percent in August for its biggest gain in 10 years. The higher the dollar is, the lower the cost of foreign goods -- an important factor in today's data.”

US International Trade data for July. Econoday stated: “The U.S. trade deficit in July widened sharply on a surge in oil imports but otherwise actually improved. The overall U.S. trade gap jumped to $62.2 billion from a revised $58.82 billion deficit in June and came in worse than the market forecast for a $58.0 billion deficit. In July, exports advanced 3.3 percent while imports increased 3.9 percent. The overall worsening was due to a spike in oil prices as the oil gap gushed to $43.4 billion in July from $37.3 billion in June. Meanwhile the nonoil goods deficit narrowed to $29.6 billion from $32.5 billion in June. The nonoil deficit shrinkage was due to a decline in both capital goods and consumer goods imports, reflecting a slowing in the U.S. economy. Strength in exports was led by industrial supplies and automotive… The average price of imported oil set another record high, coming in at $124.66 per barrel in July, up from $117.13 per barrel in June. Spot prices peaked in early July and we are likely to see some easing in the monthly average for August… Year-on-year, overall exports were up 20.1 percent in July while imports were up 16.8 percent… Today's report shows the likely final impact of the recent surge in oil prices along with a slowing in the economy. Once the numbers are put in real terms (inflation adjusted), the July data actually show improvement in the trade gap and may be one of the few reports supporting third quarter growth. But the slowing in imports indicates that businesses recognize that the economy is very sluggish.”

US Producer Price Inflation index for August. Econoday stated: “Producer price inflation in August turned negative at the headline level due to a drop in energy costs. Meanwhile, core inflation eased at least temporarily from heavy discounting by auto dealers. The overall PPI fell 0.9 percent, partially reversing July's huge 1.2 percent spike. August's decline was greater than the consensus projection for a 0.5 percent drop in the overall PPI. The core PPI rate eased to 0.2 percent, after jumping to 0.7 percent in July. The August core matched the market forecast for a 0.2 percent gain… As expected, energy pulled headline inflation down in August with a 4.6 percent drop after a 3.1 percent boost in July. Food price inflation was unchanged at 0.3 percent… Indeed, the core was pushed down by discounting by auto dealers. Passenger cars slipped 0.3 percent while light trucks dropped 1.9 percent. Otherwise, core components were mixed… For the overall PPI, the year-on-year rate slipped to up 9.7 percent from 9.8 percent in July (seasonally adjusted). The core rate rose to up 3.7 percent in August from up 3.6 percent the previous month… Today's PPI report is favorable toward bonds as is this morning's retail sales report which came in notably weak. Equities will likely focus on the deteriorating consumer sector and will likely be headed down.”

US Retail Sales for August. Econoday stated: “The weak jobs market is pulling back consumer spending as retail sales fell for a second straight month, down 0.3 percent in August vs. a downwardly 0.5 percent drop in July (-0.1 previously reported). The August number was far worse than the market projection for a 0.3 percent gain… Outside of vehicle sales, which were strong due to GM incentives, August sales showed wide declines: electronics -1.3 percent, building materials -2.2 percent, general merchandise -0.2 percent, non-store retailers -2.3 percent. Gasoline sales, reflecting lower prices and soft demand, fell 2.5 percent. Autos did jump, up 1.9 percent to limit the overall damage in August… Excluding autos, sales plunged 0.7 percent, a very low reading for this category. The consensus had expected a 0.2 percent dip in ex auto sales. Excluding both autos and gasoline, retail sales still were notably negative, falling 0.4 percent after rising by the same amount in July… Overall retail sales on a year-on-year basis in August were up 1.6 percent - down from 2.1 percent in July. Excluding motor vehicles, the year-on-year gain came in at up 5.5 percent while excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, the year-ago increase stood at 5.9 percent… Treasury yields and the dollar moved lower in immediate reaction to this report and a big headline drop in the PPI. But the bottom line is that the consumer sector is running out of steam. Today's report adds to the argument that Q3 will be flat. Equities likely will be soft - especially in the consumer discretionary sector.”

US Business Inventories for July. Econoday stated: “Retail inventories are backing up dramatically in what is a second blow for the retail sector, hit this morning with dismal sales results for August. Retail inventories in July jumped 1.5 percent for the sharpest spike in more than two years, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio 3 tenths higher to 1.48. Accumulation was concentrated in autos where inventories jumped 3.2 percent in the month. Inventories at furniture & electric rose 1.3 percent, building materials up 0.8 percent, apparel up 0.8 percent, and the expansive category of general merchandise up 0.3 percent… Total business inventories, which also include factories and wholesalers, jumped 1.1 percent in the month for the biggest jump in more than four years. Inventories at wholesalers, who are at the base of the supply chain, were especially worrisome in July, up 1.4 percent. Inventory accumulation may be a plus for third-quarter GDP but it is a dangerous result of economic slowdown, leading to output cutbacks and layoffs. Given today's report on retail sales, businesses appear to have gone into August with excess inventory, if so this points to price markdowns at retailers and a loss of pricing power for businesses.”

US Consumer Sentiment for September. Econoday stated: “Retail spending may be in the dumps but consumer confidence is definitely bouncing up, rising across many reports including this morning's mid-month consumer sentiment index from Reuters/University of Michigan -- at 73.1 vs. 63.0 in August for the biggest gain in nearly five years. Expectations are soaring, at 70.9 vs. 57.9 in August for the biggest monthly surge since the end of the 1991 recession! Consumers must believe that conditions, however weak, are bound to improve. Improvement in current conditions is less dramatic, at 76.5 for a still sizable 5.5 point gain. But the biggest plus of all, and one consistent with the drop in oil prices, is a steep decline in inflation expectations, down 1.2 points for the one-year outlook, now at a much more moderate 3.6 percent, and down 3 tenths for the five-year outlook to a nearly benign 2.9 percent. Treasury yields climbed in reaction to the report which does hint at stronger growth ahead.”

How is next week’s calendar looking?

US Economic Calendar.

US Empire State Manufacturing Surver for Sept. Leading into this report, Econoday reported: “The Empire State manufacturing index edged back up into positive territory in August to 2.8 from minus 4.9 in July. Key readings were mostly near the neutral level of zero, indicating no growth but generally reflecting softer conditions than in July. Orders point to a sluggish overall number for September as new orders slipped to minus 2.2 from plus 8.3 in July. Also, unfilled orders slipped further - to minus 9.0 from minus 8.4 the month before… Consensus Forecast for September 08: 0.50.”

US Industrial Production for August. I recommend you review the International Report this week that shows the decline in IP across Europe and Japan. Leading up to the US report on Monday, Econoday reported: “Industrial production in July posted a modest gain, led largely by a sizable gain in motor vehicles. Overall industrial production advanced 0.2 percent in July, following a 0.4 percent gain in June. The manufacturing component jumped 0.4 percent, after edging up 0.1 percent in June. Within manufacturing, gains were widespread but notable strength was in motor vehicles which increased 3.6 percent. Overall capacity utilization in July nudged up to 79.9 percent from 79.8 percent in June and compared to the market forecast for 79.8 percent in July. Looking ahead, the 0.8 percent drop in worker hours in manufacturing suggest a dip in manufacturing for August… Forecast for August: -0.3 percent”

US Consumer Price Inflation index for August. After July, Econoday reported: “The consumer price index in July slowed at the headline level from a red hot June pace but still was very strong. The headline CPI posted a 0.8 percent boost in July, following a 1.1 percent spike the month before. As in recent months, energy led the boost in overall inflation with a monthly 4.0 percent rise, following a 6.6 percent increase in June. Food inflation continued to accelerate, rising 0.9 percent in July after a 0.8 percent jump in June. The core rate remained elevated with a 0.3 percent boost, matching June's gain. What's disconcerting is that gains were widespread except for medical care. But we are likely to get at least some temporary relief in August. Gasoline prices have come down and heavy discounting by auto dealers will even likely slow core inflation. Adding to the odds that we should get a more favorable CPI in August was the 3.7 percent drop in import prices for the same month - with consumer goods ex autos flat for the month… Forecast for August 08, m/m: -0.1 percent.”

US Housing starts for August. After July, Econoday stated: “Housing starts may return to a more normal pattern in August after heavy volatility in June and July. Starts in July fell sharply as expected after an artificial boost in the multifamily component in June. Starts fell 11.0 percent, following a 10.4 percent surge in June. But July's level in starts was a return to more normal conditions after a change in building code in New York City -- taking effect July 1 -- led to a run on both multifamily permits and multifamily starts to grandfather in the less restrictive code. The July pace of 0.965 million units annualized was down 29.6 percent year-on-year. Single-family starts in July continued their downward spiral, falling 2.9 percent after declining 3.2 percent in June. Unfortunately, there has been no change in the fundamentals to suggest a bottoming in starts yet. Unsold inventories of new and existing homes are still extremely high… Forecast for August 08: 0.950 million-unit rate.”

US Leading Economic Indicators for August. After July, Econoday stated: “The Conference Board's index of leading indicators plunged 0.7 percent in July, skewed lower by a drop in building permits tied to one-time effects from New York City. But other components were lower as well including stock prices and jobless claims. However, the coincident indicator, closely watched for signals on recession, rose 0.1 percent in July following no change in June. This indicator suggests the economy continues to skirt recession… Forecast for August 08: -0.2 percent.”

US Philadelphia Fed regional business conditions index for Sept. After August, Econoday stated: “The general business conditions component of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey index improved in August - or more precisely - was less negative, rising to minus 12.7 from minus 16.3 in July. The general business conditions index has been negative for every month going back to December 2007. Looking ahead, the new orders index does not bode well. New orders remained on the decline, coming in at minus 11.9 - little changed from July's minus 12.1… Forecast for September 08: -10.3.”

Over the past few weeks, the US macro-economic data shows that there are pockets of improvement, but most traders are focused on the credit market and how the monetary authorities and major bans are going to resolve the Lehman Brothers situation, which is dire and has come to a head on Wednesday this past week.

A week ago in this space, I stated,

“As I go through the charts to follow this week, I think there’s indications of trader nervousness that equities could crater here. I am mindful that the Interventionists only have so much ammunition, and that the total pool of free capital will overwhelm those who stand in the way of a major sell-off, if that’s what traders want to do. Moreover, I don’t see HB&B using much needed reserves to stand in the way of a broad market crash either, other than trying to keep their own share price levels high (which they need to do for their next round of capital raise-ups)… These are such challenging times for HB&B that, frankly, I no longer have any interest in reading their research reports. I don’t believe that analysts who are under duress career-wise are going to look at and report on any situation objectively. We’re running a business – each of us who manages a portfolio – and we must be objective. This is no time to suffer credulity syndrome.”

Nothing’s changed. I am concerned for future generations that “the movers-and-shakers within HB&B … have caused the economic and financial mess the world is in today, and now they are looking to their former leader, Mr. Moral Hazard, to bail them out with the People’s money… The public needs to know they can trust somebody. From this point on, regulators need to study in great detail every bank merger and capital raise. There will be lots of illegal stuff going on because these companies have their backs against the wall. Their executives are desperate, and desperate people tend to cheat.”

I am also noting that while traders have their eye on the HB&B/Treasury Secretary/Fed ball, they may have missed the fact that Wall Street earnings forecasts are being boosted almost beyond belief by booming forecasts for the Banks, which is offsetting the rapidly falling forecasts for other corporations. Any earnings forecast for the Banks is at best a guess because nobody knows the extent of the crapola still on their books and the timing they’ll agree amongst themselves to finally write it down to reality.

Fiat money in many nations is still being degraded because of heightened levels of military spending and because the velocity of money, ie, turnover, is slowing due to economic slowdown and concerns for capital risk. But that situation is offset by the rapid slowing of inflation along with the falling commodity prices, which is like the removal of a tax on business and consumers alike.

The net effect, I think, is that the $USD will continue to rally with higher highs and higher lows; but gold will also move higher because the increase in economic wealth will continue to be somewhat slower than the even higher growth in money supply. The only difference I see in the future for the $USD is that its relative strength will require relatively faster rising interest rates in the US.

I do see that the European economy is now contracting faster than the US, which ought to pull the Euro down against the $USD, which lifts the price of gold. But economies in the US, Europe and Japan, which combined is the world’s leading economy, are in rapid slowdown mode, which is still putting downward pressure on crude oil. As some of the macro-economic data is suggesting, however, there are bright spots here and there, so an economic depression that some people are projecting is highly unlikely. More likely is a minor global recession with support from the emerging BRIC economies, ie, Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Whatever is happening out there, I find that there are so many cross-currents, it’s very difficult to discuss the subject without getting opposite views and offending or puzzling people. So, I will instead try to focus on market prices and leave the rest of the discussion to you all for now.

This coming Friday in the US market represents Quadruple Witching, which is a day, the 3rd Friday of March, June, September and December, where contracts expire for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF). Trading in the afternoon can be particularly volatile. It could get scary.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

This week, the DJIA and S&P 500 managed to eke out small gains. The S&P 500 gained +0.76%, while the GM-inspired DJIA lifted +1.79%.

On the week, there were 23 Dow components that were up and 7 down. A week ago the results were 6 up and 24 down. Clearly there was a reversal, but alas I think the boom on Friday in Energy and Basic Materials stocks was overdone, which helped bring about that result. I don’t think there was enough selling in the Financials to warrant the risks of holding positions in that sector.

As for General Motors, GM is now a mid cap stock that is no longer blue chip. It ought to be removed from the DJIA index and be replaced by Google (GOOG).

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The NASDAQ Composite gained +0.24% this week, which is probably the most honest reflection of the US market.

The Russell 2000 index gained +0.20%.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

This week, there were 8 sectors up and 2 down. The Financials were down -2.3% and Telecom (IYZ) was down -1.2%.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLP	29.15	0.01	0.03%	2.93%	2.53%	1.71%	2.68%	3.92%	6.31%	7.56%
XLY	31.15	-0.03	-0.10%	2.87%	1.07%	0.84%	-3.26%	0.87%	2.33%	-13.64%
XLU	36.48	0.59	1.64%	2.73%	-4.95%	-0.90%	-13.33%	-10.85%	-4.38%	-7.95%
XLB	38.23	1.13	3.05%	2.19%	-4.50%	-2.97%	-7.43%	-12.07%	-5.37%	-1.70%
IYH	65.69	-0.19	-0.29%	1.70%	-2.20%	-3.30%	-6.29%	5.71%	5.31%	-5.55%
SPY	126.09	0.58	0.46%	1.34%	-3.15%	-2.72%	-13.00%	-6.22%	-3.97%	-14.77%
XLI	34.11	-0.04	-0.12%	1.10%	-4.35%	-3.64%	-11.43%	-6.80%	-6.01%	-12.67%
XLK	21.61	0.02	0.09%	0.46%	-7.13%	-8.51%	-17.27%	-10.70%	-3.18%	-16.88%
XLE	68.84	1.99	2.98%	0.25%	-8.37%	-4.76%	-13.41%	-19.56%	-8.09%	-4.20%
IYZ	23.04	0.15	0.66%	-1.24%	-4.32%	-2.91%	-21.01%	-8.72%	1.10%	-28.98%
XLF	21.19	-0.30	-1.40%	-2.31%	-0.75%	0.14%	-25.28%	-7.39%	-14.42%	-36.42%
SMH	25.75	-0.11	-0.43%	-2.83%	-11.69%	-15.44%	-17.89%	-16.26%	-11.54%	-31.48%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CVX	84.24	1.44	1.74%	5.01%	-3.37%	-2.70%	-9.87%	-14.09%	-2.87%	-5.55%
SLB	88.68	1.65	1.90%	3.37%	-8.27%	-5.71%	-11.83%	-10.26%	5.15%	-11.16%
XOM	77.50	1.94	2.57%	2.49%	-4.53%	0.06%	-17.12%	-10.98%	-9.85%	-11.58%
PBR	45.70	3.52	8.35%	1.99%	-13.87%	-9.83%	-61.54%	-31.29%	-60.05%	-31.64%
TOT	64.80	1.41	2.22%	0.92%	-10.31%	-8.49%	-22.19%	-20.07%	-14.51%	-16.56%
RIG	122.69	2.77	2.31%	0.34%	-5.27%	-5.04%	-15.94%	-15.08%	-10.72%	15.00%
STO	25.60	0.53	2.11%	0.27%	-16.80%	-10.74%	-18.05%	-32.15%	-16.67%	-18.83%
IMO	44.10	1.29	3.01%	0.20%	-15.08%	-4.23%	-19.70%	-22.36%	-20.71%	-4.09%
ECA	67.52	1.94	2.96%	-0.38%	-9.60%	-1.85%	-3.00%	-24.68%	-11.62%	11.62%
SU	47.24	2.64	5.92%	-4.93%	-17.25%	-10.33%	-14.31%	-26.85%	-11.22%	1.88%
PTR	112.56	-0.16	-0.14%	-5.67%	-13.85%	-13.25%	-35.18%	-13.73%	-18.45%	-22.37%
CEO	123.14	2.34	1.94%	-8.88%	-20.34%	-13.02%	-26.45%	-27.40%	-27.14%	-6.77%

Crude Oil ($WTIC plunged -$4.98/bbl (-4.69%) this week to 101.25, on the verge of breaking $100. That’s a loss in nine sessions of -$14.21/bbl, which must be causing fits in the oil-heavy hedge funds, and to the traders who went long oil after seeing that Hurricane Ike was making a bee-line for the Gulf oil fields, the major southern refineries and the large metropolis of Houston, where huge damage has been suffered in the past day.

As I noted a week ago, the $WTIC technical support at 111 (the 200-day Moving average) was broken, and a test of $100 was likely.

But the Energy ETF (XLE) gained +2.98% on Friday to carry it through to a small gain of +0.25% on the week.

Two weeks ago I wrote: “I surmise that there has been a release of Special Petroleum Reserves to control the price heading into what appears to be an emergency condition in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, with Gustav being a potential Category 4 storm as it hits the oil fields… Remember, it was just seven weeks ago that $WTIC was $145/bbl, and the economy was thought to be weaker then, and there were no Cat 4 hurricanes in the vicinity of the prime US oil fields and refineries.” A week ago, I added, “Well, now that GUSTAV has gone by and IKE appears on the horizon, there could be more of the same. Then again, the global economy seems to be hitting a wall, and probably receding in many nations, which will cause the price of oil to continue to fall.”

Yes, there was a release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and, yes, the price of oil dropped -$14.21/bbl over the course of the time these monster storms ravaged the oil production and refining facilities of the US. But, looking at the big picture, I think that what’s happening here is that bank credit to speculators has dried up, and hedge funds are failing, being forced to dump their long positions on the market.

This situation is not likely to be resolved in favor of the oil Bulls until the desperate situation at Humungous Bank & Broker is stabilized. For instance, on Friday, after talk there were three parties lined up to take control of Lehman Brothers, I noted that XLE popped +3.0%.

Which are the biggest holdings of the hedge fund speculators? Why it’s Exxon, Chevron and Schlumberger. These stocks (XOM, CVX and SLB) had a serious bounce from Wednesday through Friday, and over the course of the week were up +2.5%, +5.0% and +3.4% respectively. Did you note the big losers this week were the international oil giants, CEO (-8.9%), PTR (-5.7%), both of China and Canada’s Suncor (SU -4.9%).

Alaska; drill, drill, drill. Strategic Petroleum Reserves being released. HB&B, with Treasury’s help and the Fed’s help, looking like it might help the speculators after all… Yes, I think there are a lot of politics intervening here.

A week ago, I stated that “The IMO, SU and ECA of Western Canada are my favorites among the large caps. They probably have another 10% or more to fall before resuming their secular bull. The US will increasingly rely on Western Canada energy supplies, so I am looking for a bottom. It’s tough with the IMO and SU, especially, because as top-line revenues come down, their margins will get really squeezed due to rapidly escalating costs. I like them, as I say, but I think it’s time to switch horses because the course has changed. I now believe the junior oils of Western Canada – the ones with strong balance sheets and solid reserves – will be the ones I personally buy. As this Bear market ends, there will be many bargains available for those who managed to save their ammunition.”

In the Value Line reports this week, which I analyze later, there is a discussion of Exxon and Chevron. Exxon is a Cara 100 company and one that I like for core portfolio management purposes, but I think on a value basis the Imperial Oil (IMO) (Baby Exxon because Exxon owns 70% of it), Suncor (SU) and Encana (ECA) are the better choices.

IMO and SU are mostly oil-weighted, while ECA is both oil and gas. However, pretty soon, ECA will be split into separate oil and gas parts. The time to buy these stocks will be after $WTIC cracks the $100 support and falls to maybe 80-85. That move will panic traders who will then throw out these already under-valued stocks at even cheaper prices.

As to the higher risk profile junior oil and gas group, BNN TV on Friday interviewed the doyen of Calgary O&G analysts, the young Ms Joanne Hruska. Her top picks (high risk; high potential reward) were: Nuvista Energy (TSX:NVA); Orleans Energy (TSX:OEX); and Breaker Energy (TSX:WAV).

These tiny companies are light years removed from Big Oil, but they are also trading at 2x and 3x cash flow (vs 6x and 7x for CVX and XOM), and they have harder working, hungrier management as well as fairly strong finances. No is the time to study them. A year from now will be too late.

I recommend you watch the Sept 12 taped Hruska interview if you have any interest in junior oils at all. Then on June 23 she made picks that were up almost +14% in less than 3 months. Back on April 14, she made picks that went up +36%. Is it any wonder why AstonHill Financial's Joanne Hruska is one of our favorites and one of the most popular guests on BNN?

There will be a lot of wealth grown in these oils in the next two to three years, I believe.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior Basic Materials:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DOW	36.25	0.24	0.67%	7.12%	4.65%	3.90%	-6.45%	-5.72%	-2.74%	-13.48%
TS	47.66	2.22	4.89%	5.79%	-13.55%	-9.10%	7.37%	-23.80%	-2.28%	3.74%
PKX	100.29	4.42	4.61%	4.33%	-7.78%	-13.20%	-31.52%	-23.83%	-20.15%	-34.59%
RTP	325.42	27.80	9.34%	3.50%	-16.16%	-7.81%	-22.46%	-26.78%	-24.90%	9.20%
RIO	24.26	1.37	5.99%	3.15%	-9.81%	-6.40%	-25.83%	-29.72%	-29.13%	-54.27%
BHP	61.50	5.07	8.98%	3.00%	-14.58%	-7.38%	-12.65%	-22.37%	-11.61%	-5.00%
NUE	49.39	4.14	9.15%	1.94%	-6.48%	-2.89%	-14.80%	-33.18%	-26.83%	-7.61%
MT	65.46	2.06	3.25%	1.82%	-16.06%	-15.04%	-14.32%	-29.73%	-14.89%	2.92%
AA	28.67	1.05	3.80%	1.31%	-11.51%	-10.01%	-20.65%	-24.03%	-24.13%	-14.80%
VCP	20.69	0.92	4.65%	-1.38%	-2.41%	-5.95%	-30.34%	-36.10%	-28.33%	-16.67%
TCK	36.71	3.44	10.34%	-2.37%	-10.68%	-2.65%	1.30%	-21.00%	-15.43%	-11.86%
GGB	14.41	0.55	3.97%	-5.01%	-22.69%	-19.41%	-49.79%	-70.21%	-55.91%	-37.48%

Basic Materials (XLB +2.19% to 38.23) was lifted by the +3.05% surge on Friday.

A week ago I opined that the previous week’s loss of -6.55%, like the loss of -8.60% that week for XLE, was, “not an oil problem. It’s not a $USD problem. Pure and simple; this is economic recession related – at least fears of that… Why is that analysis important? Simply; this is not hot money speculating in forex and energy futures. The major capital pools have decided that commodity prices are going to fall because of demand destruction, and that’s not a situation that can be turned on a dime. Macro-economic data, can be spun, yes, but it takes a while before any significant improvement will begin to show.”

What happened this week was that on Wednesday the US Big Oils were pumped for reasons I stated earlier. The Basic Materials were goosed on Friday because some traders wanted to close shorts and others wanted to get a jump on the moves expected this weekend by the US Treasury and Fed to pump liquidity into the market to help Wall Street overcome its dire situation (Lehman and others).

DOW Chemical (DOW +7.1%) and Tenaris (TS +5.8%) had bullish weeks.

But let’s look at what happened Friday, which was the day almost all the action took place. But first, here is what I wrote a week ago about my picks in this sector for the next Bull market. I could have added some Refiners and some Chemicals, but here is what I wrote:

In this group, I have my eye on base metal miners RIO and TCK. I’d like BHP more if there was less of an oil component. I like some of the steelmakers too: MT, TS (in spite of making pipe for the oil drillers), GGB are ones to watch. The pulp & paper stock VCP is another. For goldminers, I like ABX, GG and KGC and silver royalty stock SLW. Of all these, I like the precious metals plus TCK, RIO and VCP the best.

Drum roll please: ABX (+11.0%), GG (13.7%), KGC (+11.8%), SLW (+10.8%), TCK (+10.3%), RIO (+5.99%) and VCP (+4.65%). Average that group and you come up with a lift of +9.82% on Friday.

Did this come as a shock? Not to those who read this linked article on Friday.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FDX	90.84	0.37	0.41%	10.40%	8.23%	4.46%	5.43%	3.89%	4.34%	-15.76%
UPS	68.60	0.48	0.70%	7.37%	6.03%	4.59%	-0.81%	0.45%	-4.64%	-7.51%
CAT	65.46	0.65	1.00%	2.17%	-8.68%	-6.87%	-7.32%	-18.68%	-13.01%	-10.05%
MMM	70.15	0.21	0.30%	1.39%	-3.24%	-3.96%	-15.19%	-7.15%	-10.55%	-21.25%
BA	63.30	0.73	1.17%	0.65%	-4.58%	-2.27%	-26.92%	-14.60%	-12.63%	-35.62%
UTX	64.46	0.53	0.83%	0.59%	-3.39%	-2.51%	-14.29%	-5.09%	-5.48%	-13.87%
FLR	65.01	2.72	4.37%	-0.03%	-19.64%	-12.17%	-9.96%	-26.82%	-6.27%	-2.43%
HON	47.55	-0.08	-0.17%	-0.36%	-5.50%	-6.38%	-20.62%	-14.51%	-16.55%	-15.04%
TXT	38.92	0.14	0.36%	-0.92%	-5.30%	-8.49%	-41.75%	-32.22%	-28.42%	-30.52%
GE	26.75	-1.41	-5.01%	-4.05%	-7.21%	-9.38%	-27.23%	-7.92%	-21.23%	-32.96%
ABB	21.33	0.45	2.16%	-5.99%	-12.97%	-11.38%	-25.52%	-28.11%	-17.68%	-9.27%
ERJ	30.99	0.10	0.32%	-6.03%	-8.12%	-4.20%	-31.33%	-1.46%	-27.19%	-26.14%

The Industrials (XLI +1.10% W/W) closed at 34.11.

FDX (+10.4%) and UPS (+7.4) were the gangbuster sector leaders this week. A week earlier I wrote in this space, “Interesting that UPS (UPS -1.3%) and Fedex (FDX -2.0%) managed to out-perform the US equity market. Traders must have liked those new Manufacturing and Factory Orders numbers coming out of the US this week. If your only job is to beat the market, this is the stuff you need to do it. How many times have I passed along this particular message?... Somebody asked me in a letter how long it takes to become a Trader Wizard. I could say that it takes about as long as the time to learn 100 or 1000 of these factors. That plus always placing risk management before opportunity management.”

I think some of you are beginning to see what trading is all about. Other than risk management, which is Job #1; it’s about watching information you believe could be market moving, and acting before the crowd based on FIFO tactics, ie, First In First Out.

The big losers here this week were: Brazil’s aircraft maker Embraer (ERJ -6.0%), Swiss infrastructure builder ABB (ABB -6.0%) and General Electric (GE -4.1%). GE was down -5.0% on Friday! You might want to look into that.

Btw, a week ago, I wrote about my picks in this sector, “ABB is another Industrial stock I like. It’s got a bit more to fall than BA, though.” Ergo, the ABB price came to me -6.0% this week. Thank you Mr Market. I ask and you give. :-)

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WHR	87.56	-0.44	-0.50%	6.77%	7.45%	5.32%	9.61%	32.39%	2.89%	-2.97%
BDK	67.65	0.90	1.35%	6.55%	8.52%	3.66%	-3.26%	13.35%	3.87%	-18.25%
DIS	33.26	0.32	0.97%	6.06%	2.06%	2.88%	4.46%	0.06%	5.89%	-1.36%
CCL	41.10	0.85	2.11%	5.41%	8.79%	4.63%	-5.86%	12.14%	6.89%	-7.83%
NKE	61.92	0.95	1.56%	5.27%	1.14%	-0.13%	-2.15%	-7.28%	3.61%	10.41%
TGT	57.26	-0.37	-0.64%	4.05%	6.27%	15.33%	15.65%	9.67%	12.08%	-8.71%
BBBY	32.06	-0.24	-0.74%	3.02%	3.85%	9.98%	13.05%	10.21%	12.49%	-2.26%
TM	90.92	-1.05	-1.14%	2.36%	2.50%	1.47%	-14.60%	-9.81%	-13.43%	-19.64%
JCP	41.43	-1.79	-4.14%	1.57%	6.12%	12.49%	-0.53%	8.51%	4.15%	-33.93%
BC	13.62	0.02	0.15%	-0.51%	-1.02%	-6.33%	-19.50%	4.13%	-12.02%	-38.95%
TTM	9.250	0.080	0.87%	-1.39%	-5.52%	-7.04%	-52.44%	-25.88%	-42.15%	-45.59%
EBAY	22.55	-0.48	-2.08%	-5.13%	-11.22%	-13.44%	-30.59%	-19.69%	-15.19%	-38.67%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2.87% W/W) closed at 31.15.

With the fall in the oil price, there were some big moves here: WHR +6.8%, BDK +6.6%, DIS +6.1%, and CCL +5.4%.

A week ago I wrote in this space, “JCP and CCL are two stocks I like for the next Bull. They probably hit long-term cycle bottoms in mid-July, which may be re-tested in a broad market sell-off. JCP will sell off hard with the Financials. CCL is an oil hedge, so, depending on how low oil goes, CCL will have a measure of downside support during the final broad market sell-off.” Yes, if Oil drops to 80-85, you will probably never again see the summer low for CCL.

I really like CCL (Carnival Cruiseships) because of all the passengers it brings daily to Nassau to meet me!

EBAY dropped -5.1% this week, which follows the loss of -6.4% a week earlier.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PEP	73.15	0.53	0.73%	6.14%	5.72%	4.59%	-2.84%	7.65%	5.16%	5.13%
KO	54.50	0.35	0.65%	4.95%	2.60%	-0.95%	-10.79%	-4.62%	-7.92%	-2.40%
DEO	75.34	1.65	2.24%	4.86%	2.11%	2.42%	-11.43%	0.43%	-8.01%	-11.91%
WAG	36.07	-0.60	-1.64%	4.28%	-1.23%	-2.93%	-3.40%	1.75%	-1.07%	-19.90%
KR	27.89	-0.31	-1.10%	3.80%	-0.04%	-8.01%	8.65%	1.38%	11.25%	5.48%
PG	73.15	0.07	0.10%	3.35%	3.01%	4.93%	1.16%	10.07%	9.11%	8.68%
WMT	62.41	-0.76	-1.20%	2.75%	4.23%	7.42%	33.07%	5.58%	24.10%	46.13%
ABV	59.25	-0.01	-0.02%	2.07%	-5.67%	-4.77%	-18.25%	-15.36%	-25.09%	-12.93%
WFMI	18.43	-0.46	-2.44%	1.71%	0.99%	-3.71%	-53.65%	-31.08%	-43.73%	-57.98%
SBUX	15.33	-0.30	-1.92%	0.99%	-4.07%	-9.40%	-20.61%	-13.97%	-12.95%	-43.91%
PDA	47.16	1.12	2.43%	0.58%	-3.87%	-13.02%	-2.02%	-20.98%	-9.31%	27.56%
BUD	68.16	0.07	0.10%	-0.03%	0.24%	0.21%	32.02%	11.01%	44.99%	35.13%

Consumer Staples (XLP +2.93% W/W to 29.15) was a small winner over four days the previous week, but a big winner this week.

Pepsi (PEP +6.1%), Coca-Cola (KO +5.0%) and Diageo (DEO +4.9%) were happy that traders were drinking their lemonade.

Interesting that XLP didn’t budge during Friday’s afternoon rally though.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
UNH	29.61	-0.35	-1.17%	6.86%	-1.50%	-7.15%	-47.75%	-4.51%	-19.27%	-40.15%
WLP	51.14	1.04	2.08%	4.32%	-3.62%	-8.84%	-41.22%	-2.52%	10.10%	-35.45%
AMGN	62.87	-0.52	-0.82%	4.07%	-1.89%	-2.09%	34.91%	45.47%	39.74%	12.99%
BMY	22.24	0.41	1.88%	3.49%	2.77%	1.65%	-14.89%	13.07%	4.12%	-21.52%
AET	42.52	-0.46	-1.07%	2.66%	-1.51%	-0.75%	-24.93%	-4.58%	-4.56%	-15.53%
NVS	54.68	1.15	2.15%	2.44%	-2.39%	-3.55%	0.20%	8.60%	13.21%	0.70%
NVO	52.58	1.34	2.62%	1.68%	-9.70%	-14.31%	-17.59%	-16.18%	-22.77%	-54.75%
MDT	53.96	-0.32	-0.59%	1.28%	-2.26%	0.50%	9.01%	6.16%	11.95%	-0.68%
PFE	18.62	0.23	1.25%	0.59%	-3.37%	-5.86%	-18.73%	5.02%	-12.50%	-23.03%
DNA	96.56	-0.54	-0.56%	-0.08%	-1.92%	-2.28%	43.26%	30.84%	20.47%	22.34%
JNJ	70.59	-0.57	-0.80%	-0.11%	-1.15%	-0.84%	7.10%	7.46%	12.85%	12.93%
GSK	44.23	0.01	0.02%	-2.32%	-6.07%	-7.43%	-11.84%	6.32%	5.01%	-17.67%

The Healthcare sector (IYH) gained +1.70% to close at 65.69.

The big winners were health financials related: UNH +6.9% and WPT +4.3%. The loser in my list was GSK -2.3%.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JPM	41.17	-0.48	-1.15%	3.96%	5.89%	8.89%	-2.37%	8.31%	6.63%	-7.42%
HBC	78.83	0.41	0.52%	3.86%	0.19%	-2.06%	-4.38%	-1.98%	-0.98%	-11.99%
CS	46.39	0.59	1.29%	1.58%	-0.66%	-1.30%	-22.27%	-0.51%	-9.38%	-28.58%
DB	82.52	-1.55	-1.84%	-0.23%	-4.05%	-8.82%	-36.06%	-13.16%	-26.46%	-34.04%
UBS	20.65	0.02	0.10%	-0.72%	-6.81%	4.08%	-54.90%	-10.57%	-32.45%	-59.98%
BBD	16.96	0.70	4.31%	-3.09%	-8.52%	-10.17%	-44.27%	-22.66%	-45.18%	-29.39%
GS	154.21	-2.82	-1.80%	-5.53%	-4.71%	-7.43%	-25.72%	-7.52%	-5.40%	-15.52%
C	17.96	-0.65	-3.49%	-5.82%	-5.87%	-0.66%	-37.90%	-9.70%	-15.32%	-60.75%
IBN	29.85	-0.42	-1.39%	-5.87%	-3.08%	-5.00%	-51.97%	-15.39%	-30.58%	-31.83%
MS	37.23	-1.48	-3.82%	-9.99%	-8.30%	-8.39%	-26.93%	-3.00%	-9.22%	-41.33%
MER	17.05	-2.38	-12.25%	-36.21%	-38.05%	-34.37%	-67.68%	-53.00%	-62.04%	-76.63%
LEH	3.6500	-0.5700	-13.51%	-77.47%	-77.00%	-77.47%	-94.13%	-83.92%	-91.88%	-93.61%

The Financials (XLF -2.31% to 21.19) was the worst performing sector; a week ago I told you I found the Weekly Performer #1 rating to be a joke. I wrote, “XLF was the only sector to do so. Yes, traders are wondering why.” I went on to say it was only because of the Treasury Secretary and Fannie & Freddie. This week traders see that nothing is new with F/F except some friends of Paulson being parachuted in to make it look good. DC these days is on the “change” bandwagon, but the joke of it all is that nothing changes in DC; it’s politics as usual.

This weekend the Interventionists (Treasury Secretary, Fed Heads, and HB&B leaders) are huddled over what to do with Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, Wachovia, Merrill Lynch… take your pick. Politics as usual!

The public will be told that whatever the decisions that group makes, it will be strictly on account of their duty to save Mom & Pop. Isn’t this stuff funny? Well, it would be if it wasn’t fraud.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CSCO	23.46	0.41	1.78%	5.39%	-4.87%	-4.90%	-11.61%	-9.63%	-6.68%	-26.18%
QCOM	47.92	-1.17	-2.38%	0.52%	-11.21%	-14.96%	24.82%	-2.16%	20.55%	26.54%
ADBE	40.47	-0.58	-1.41%	-1.08%	-8.67%	-10.78%	-2.97%	-1.27%	21.39%	-7.56%
RIMM	105.67	-3.65	-3.34%	-1.20%	-16.57%	-19.17%	-7.07%	-18.46%	4.22%	23.66%
GOOG	437.66	3.91	0.90%	-1.48%	-7.62%	-13.42%	-36.13%	-20.85%	-0.57%	-16.26%
SAP	53.19	0.33	0.62%	-1.86%	-5.76%	-7.24%	4.85%	0.74%	8.44%	-6.24%
INTC	20.16	-0.03	-0.15%	-2.18%	-14.54%	-17.24%	-20.47%	-8.57%	-4.55%	-20.82%
ORCL	19.61	0.26	1.34%	-2.29%	-13.38%	-15.44%	-12.81%	-10.29%	-0.36%	-4.53%
CTSH	26.88	-0.19	-0.70%	-3.14%	-9.49%	-13.46%	-16.60%	-22.24%	-6.86%	-23.09%
INFY	37.24	0.06	0.16%	-5.46%	-10.05%	-11.90%	-16.18%	-19.79%	5.41%	-20.78%
AAPL	148.94	-3.71	-2.43%	-7.02%	-14.27%	-16.94%	-23.56%	-14.04%	18.18%	8.83%
SNDK	15.69	-0.70	-4.27%	-11.05%	3.43%	-11.95%	-52.70%	-33.74%	-30.33%	-69.68%

Tech (XLK +0.46% to 21.61) and Semi-conductors (SMH -2.83% to 25.75) were mixed. The semi’s got dumped yet again this week. Just like the last three weeks, SMH was the worst performer of the major sub-sectors.

Among these chip makers, Intel (INTC -2.2%) and SanDisk (SNDK -11.1%) were losers.

For the tech stocks, Cisco (CSCO +5.4%) and Apple (AAPL -7.0%) were going in opposite directions. CSCO was recovering from the drubbing of a week ago (-9.7%), so nothing’s there, while Apple’s Steve Jobs appears to be withering away physically, which might be scaring traders who have been long the stock due to his leadership. I think the risk is real. He says he “could put on a few pounds” but he actually looks like he’s closer to a wheelchair than a weight-building regimen. Hope it isn’t true – even if I’m still pissed that he back-dated stock options and then maneuvered his way free of prosecution. I figure if you do the crime (as his CFO alleged) then you ought to do the time.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Telecom (IYZ -1.24% W/W) closed at 23.04. IYZ was down -3.11% a week ago.

Verizon (VZ +1.2%) and AT&T (T +0.1%) were up.

Like the most Financials, I think I’ll avoid the Telco sector when selecting companies whose stocks I want to buy for the next Bull market.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

Utilities (XLU +2.73% W/W) closed at 36.48. There were some very good moves this week: ED (+7.5%), DUK (+5.7%), D (+5.3%), EXC (+5.3%), NGG (+4.9%) and AEP (+4.5%). Canada’s TRP dropped -0.4%, but all the US utilities were up.

Here is the list of North American Utilities that I will be following more closely:
AEP D DUK ED EXC FE FPL NGG PCG PEG SO TRP

For study purposes, there is a good mix of electric (AEP, D, DUK, FE, FPL and SO), gas (NGG, TRP) and diversified (ED, EXC, PCG, PEG) utilities.

Table 12: US Utilities

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	1.39	1.55	1.67	1.78
6 Month	1.74	1.80	1.87	1.91
2 Year	2.20	2.21	2.30	2.47
3 Year	2.06	2.07	2.14	2.33
5 Year	2.94	2.91	2.91	3.19
10 Year	3.72	3.64	3.70	3.93
30 Year	4.31	4.22	4.30	4.56

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.17	2.21	2.21	2.16
2yr AAA	2.16	2.12	2.16	1.99
2yr A	2.38	2.41	2.41	2.41
5yr AAA	2.71	2.71	2.70	2.91
5yr AA	2.73	2.71	2.69	2.95
5yr A	2.82	2.76	2.73	3.14
10yr AAA	3.41	3.41	3.42	3.68
10yr AA	3.43	3.44	3.42	3.61
10yr A	3.46	3.47	3.51	3.69
20yr AAA	4.51	4.49	4.50	4.68
20yr AA	4.57	4.64	4.56	4.67
20yr A	4.76	4.69	4.77	4.85

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.98	4.05	4.19	4.27
2yr A	6.69	6.12	5.23	5.06
5yr AAA	4.78	4.68	4.73	4.90
5yr AA	5.58	5.49	5.45	5.39
5yr A	5.63	5.58	5.41	5.70
10yr AAA	4.83	4.73	4.73	5.03
10yr AA	6.19	6.06	6.23	6.16
10yr A	6.44	6.31	6.19	6.11
20yr AAA	5.70	5.65	5.80	6.66
20yr AA	5.75	5.73	5.79	6.46
20yr A	6.20	6.08	5.99	6.92

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Bond prices were stronger this week again, until Friday. On Friday it appeared the wheels were coming off the HB&B train. The little engine known as Lehman stopped running, and the DC and NYC trainmasters came running. That means probably a flood of new liquidity, higher gold prices, a lower USD, and higher bond yields to compensate for the risks. Ergo the hit to bond prices on Friday, especially in the short-end.

For the week, the yields for the US Treasury Bills and 2-year Notes were down -28 bp to 1.39!!!, and -10 bp to 2.20, respectively. For the 5-year ($FVX), 10-year ($TNX) and 30-year ($TYX), the yields were a little higher actually: +3 bp, +2 bp and +1 bp respectively, to 2.94, 3.72 and 4.31. So, clearly all the action was hot money, rushing into safe-haven short treasuries while awaiting what the Interventionists are going to do.

The 20-year TLT closed the week down -0.57% to 94.94. The TIP lost -0.12% to 105.05. Again, this was all done on Friday as the TLT dropped -1.29% and the TIP dropped -0.72% on the day as yields flashed higher.

As I opined a week ago, “The bail-out of Fannie and Freddie (and other Financials) will now likely push rates higher in order to save the $USD from cratering.” But in the interim, there is a knee-jerl safe-haven move happening while traders await the poison.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NLY	15.95	0.01	0.06%	4.11%	5.49%	12.01%	-11.88%	-0.19%	3.57%	6.26%
EQR	42.85	0.48	1.13%	1.18%	-0.23%	-5.97%	17.62%	2.88%	12.06%	6.46%
AGG	101.21	-0.41	-0.40%	0.40%	0.43%	1.28%	-0.43%	1.69%	-1.32%	1.09%
DRE	25.26	0.22	0.88%	0.24%	-0.12%	-2.17%	-1.41%	8.23%	14.82%	-21.48%
AVB	100.16	0.71	0.71%	0.14%	-0.97%	-1.71%	9.64%	4.04%	5.59%	-12.49%
SHY	83.16	0.01	0.01%	0.11%	0.06%	0.30%	0.99%	1.33%	-1.13%	2.44%
TIP	105.05	-0.76	-0.72%	-0.12%	-1.52%	-0.73%	-1.49%	0.24%	-5.77%	2.42%
IEF	89.62	-0.45	-0.50%	-0.47%	0.15%	1.11%	2.27%	4.04%	-1.79%	5.82%
TLT	94.94	-1.24	-1.29%	-0.57%	0.72%	2.93%	0.59%	6.60%	0.45%	4.80%
FNM	0.7400	-0.0400	-5.13%	-89.49%	-90.69%	-91.01%	-98.02%	-97.03%	-96.48%	-98.82%
FRE	0.4600	-0.1300	-22.03%	-90.98%	-91.29%	-92.26%	-98.59%	-97.95%	-97.70%	-99.22%

Two weeks ago, after Fannie and Freddie gained +36.8% and +60.5% respectively. I wrote:

“This wasn’t the work of serious traders or even speculators. This was the work of (i) HB&B, and (ii) gamblers. I say that because if you weren’t in the back room in the deal, then you had to be gambling. No one group in the public, and probably no one at Fannie/Freddie or the Admin/Treasury knows how much more ABCP crap will need to be written off. So, roll the dice… I am not interested. I have guessed that these Dogs will be permitted to stick around until the Treasury Secretary departs the Admin so he can say their demise happened on somebody else’s watch. Ha!.. A week ago FNM dropped -36.8% and FRE -52.0% W/W. Over the course of just ten sessions, the losses were -44.8% and -52.4% respectively. These Dogs have to attract a lot of gamblers to make it through to January when the next Treasury Secretary has to make the ultimate decision.”

After the w/w losses of -11.5% and -3.4% for Fannie and Freddie respectively, there was a Friday bullet of +9.7% and +3.0% for F and F. I wrote about the Friday action (and the seizing of F and F by the Treasury Secretary, “(This) was the work of HB&B. Morgan Stanley discovered the shocking facts that Fannie & Freddie had been under reporting true reserves. I suppose the investigators: (i) were not biased, and (ii) didn’t leak their findings. NOT and NOT. No way… This is such a dog’s breakfast.”

This week, boom. Fannie plunged -89.5% (and -98.82% over 52-weeks) and Freddie plunged -91.0% (and -99.22% over 52-weeks). Whatever happens here; the US monetary authorities, regulators and criminal prosecutors will have lost all credibility if the culprits are not apprehended and ultimately sent to prison. Trillions of Dollars have been lost. This is no game. This is real money.

Moreover, the NYSE is still listing and trading these shares because HB&B absolutely needs that. Else, HB&B is bankrupt the moment they have to write off the shares of Fannie and Freddie to zero along with the worthless preferred shares and debt. It’s all worthless, but Wall Street and DC cannot afford to admit it. That in itself is criminal.

I fear there is no morality left in America. What represents itself as having strong values is a charade. For two years, I have stated this was the case, that HB&B was toast. Now that all of us can see it is toast, we have to stand by while criminals masquerading as bankers, advisors, politicians, regulators and so forth are telling to our faces that the situation is not what we know it is – bankrupt.

A year ago, Fannie and Freddie, Lehman and Merrill, Washington Mutual and Wachovia, Bear Stearns, how about the UK’s Northern Rock – all of them the pillars of finance; now dust.

I’ll tell you this: the US taxpayer will refuse to pay. There will be a tax revolt if the Bright Lights of Wall Street and Washington try to pull another Bear Stearns this week. Yes, this week. What are these criminals going to do now? With the little rope left, they ought to just hang themselves.

What will happen is what I wrote about months ago: there will be a slew of take-overs, where the next set of books and records will deliberately hide the fraud, and the regulators and prosecutors in America will give them all a Get Out Of Jail Free card – just because they’ve “saved Mom & Pop”.

You wonder if ever this nonsense will stop. It really was tragic this group of Interventionists buried poor Eliot Spitzer before all this stuff came to the fore. The Man Act! (re Spitzer). Can you believe that? You show me one MAN left standing in this sorry situation, and I’ll show you a CRIMINAL.

OK, now we get back to the market because that’s what we have to deal with. As for the rest of it, we have zero control. We’re just chattels of these people – that is if they hold our debt.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB sank -7.69 (-2.09% W/W) to 360.01. On Friday there was a pop of +1.42% so the rest of the week was a real downer.

The longer the nonsense goes on in Washington, the more that people will want to hold commodities. Smart traders, however, will likely wait for the $USD strength to play out before jumping back to commodities. At that point, it could be back to a 320 level for $CRB and an 80-85 level for $WTIC. We’ll have to watch it though.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) plunged -$4.98/bbl (-4.69%) to 101.25. That’s a loss of -$14.21/bbl in nine sessions.

Yes, I do feel that Crude Oil will drop to the 80-85/bbl level, which is still a rather large pull-back; but I’m not negative on the shares of the high quality Oil & Gas industry companies, which I believe will lead the commodity price turn-around – as they usually do.

In fact, there may even be a rapid decent to the cycle bottom for $WTIC, supported by protective puts and calls by the players who would put it there temporarily to clear out the negative vibes, and get the market set for the next Bull phase.

This phase could be like a dramatic 1987 plunge scenario in the oils – although it really would be happening in the Financials if the US Treasury Secretary were somebody not named Mr. Moral Hazard.

For $WTIC, the 50d MA is now 121.14, and the 200d MA is 111.63.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

$GOLD was crushed again this week. The price plunged a further -$38.30/oz (-4.77%) to 764.50. But the good news for the gold Bulls is that there was a gain of +$19.00/oz (+2.55%) on Friday.

There could easily be more of a short-term rally – say to 800 to pick a number – and that would still be a move just back to downtrend line on the Daily chart.

In fact, I don’t want to see traders chasing gold and silver here. The Friday entry was a short-term move for swing traders and a part position entry for intermediate and long-term traders – but that’s all. The cycle low of 739.80 set on Thursday for $GOLD will likely be tested soon. If Crude Oil sinks to that 80-85 level, I feel confident that $GOLD will test 700 before the long cycle ends.

For $GOLD, the 50d MA is now 872.71, and the 200d MA is 892.25.

I think Howard Sun write a nice piece for Seeking Alpha this week.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

$SILVER plunged -$1.53/oz (-12.41%) to 10.80, which surprises even me. A week ago the loss was -$1.38/oz (-10.08%) to 12.32, and I figured there would be an 11-handle at the bottom.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 15.51, and the 200d MA is 16.64.

As I wrote in this space a week ago, “Like the other precious metals, I’m looking for a cycle bottom, which will likely happen when the Euro and Pound join the recent strength in the Yen.” The $USD and Euro were basically flat this week, but there was a huge $USD gain and Euro loss through Thursday, and then the $USD collapsed and the Euro hit a moon-shot on Friday, sending $SILVER up +2.27% on the day.

I think $SILVER will bottom here before $GOLD. The Silver Crazies sense things can change quickly. As tortured and depressed as they are, having failed to jump ship when I shouted SOS, they are still alive. In fact, if you read kaimu closely, there is no killing a Silver Crazy.

In fact, I am informed that Jason Hommel (who I don’t know) of the Silver Stock Report would like to build a silver trading market that could replace COMEX. Jason looks to me as a reasonable chap, I’ll check this out if this community thinks it might be a good use of my valuable time. If not, I won't. If it appears to be an interesting situation, maybe I can help him do it from The Bahamas.

If I were involved, or even if I were to do something like this myself, I’d put it in Freeport, 70 miles from Palm Beach FL, and set up a mint and bullion vault and Exchange. That would be a gift to the silver Crazies. Kaimu might even move from Hawaii to ride shotgun. :-)

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLATINUM plunged -$156.60/oz (-11.45%) to 1211.60. A week ago it dropped -$121.60/ox (-8.16%).

$PLAT rallied +5.07% on Friday, from a low of 1123.60. That means in just eight trading sessions, $PLAT plunged through what is usually a full Bear market.

You recall, I warned traders that these precious metal prices could act like this and that the writing was on the wall. You remember all that talk of negative cross-overs!

The 50-day MA for $PLAT is 1624.61 and the 200-day MA is 1818.95.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALLADIUM also plunged; dropping -$30.10/oz (-11.03%) to 242.80. A week ago, $PALL dropped the same percentage.

The 50-day MA is now 348.59 and the 200-day MA is 415.55.

A week ago, I alerted you to a potential reversal move when I wrote, “Now that traders are throwing up, it may be nice to use some of that ammunition you’ve been holding. Like for the other precious metals, you have to watch the Euro, Pound and $USD for signs of reversal. But I sense we are getting close.”

Well, on Friday, $PALL was up +3.45%; $PLAT jumped +5.07%; $SILVER was up +2.27%; and $GOLD rallied +2.55%. After the close on Thursday, I wrote that it was time to buy.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER contracts gained +9.55 (+3.08%) to 319.40, after the 300 support was almost breeched.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 347.59 and the 200-day MA is 354.95.

Not having been trained in Zug, I still have no feel for the copper market.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
LIHR	16.03	2.10	15.08%	1.58%	-22.90%	-17.29%	-51.67%	-39.51%	-57.62%	-43.03%
AEM	52.70	7.71	17.14%	0.92%	-8.76%	4.15%	-6.76%	-16.69%	-28.11%	8.04%
AU	24.11	1.01	4.37%	0.42%	-11.52%	-12.23%	-47.43%	-24.96%	-31.87%	-44.51%
GG	29.05	3.51	13.74%	-0.51%	-14.88%	-6.05%	-20.72%	-24.47%	-32.44%	6.49%
GFI	8.170	0.980	13.63%	-0.97%	-13.45%	-10.22%	-46.95%	-26.13%	-47.96%	-51.63%
HMY	7.670	0.870	12.79%	-1.16%	-12.94%	-1.92%	-28.65%	-30.53%	-44.01%	-30.59%
NEM	39.66	2.38	6.38%	-1.42%	-12.31%	-7.53%	-24.30%	-14.98%	-22.81%	-12.35%
KGC	13.78	1.46	11.85%	-2.89%	-18.32%	-11.44%	-31.61%	-24.53%	-46.21%	-0.86%
ABX	29.57	2.93	11.00%	-4.43%	-15.56%	-11.94%	-35.75%	-23.37%	-41.61%	-20.79%
EGO	6.300	0.630	11.11%	-4.98%	-19.95%	-13.58%	1.61%	-22.70%	-10.89%	12.50%
BVN	17.79	1.64	10.15%	-6.37%	-24.01%	-17.90%	-41.56%	-41.63%	-54.95%	-15.33%
AUY	8.570	1.010	13.36%	-7.05%	-21.74%	-16.23%	-38.21%	-38.52%	-53.12%	-27.13%

After the close on Thursday, I felt that the Wall Street and Washington talks might reverse the Dollar:Gold hedge – at least for a couple days – so I wrote that it was time to buy Goldcorp. When I issued a SELL on Feb-28, GG was 44.71 and then it fell to under 25, so I thought I’d jump back in.

People must have been listening because GG rocketed up +13.7% on Friday.

The Goldminer indexes over the course of the week were still all down (-0.66% to -3.53%), but the weakness was all Monday through Thursday. On Friday, the gains in these indexes were from +9.25% to +10.33% for the day.

Let’s keep our eye focused on the $USD and the Treasury Secretary. The latter probably knows the market has cottoned onto his antics, so anything is likely to happen at this point. The thing is, I don’t like to gamble.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

This week the $USD closed +0.05% at $0.7898 or if you are looking at the futures market at 78.98. If you guessed not much happened, you’d be wrong. On Friday, the $USD plunged -1.55% in one of the most exciting market days for years.

The 50-day MA for the $USD is 75.20 and the 200-day MA is 74.39.

Also as I wrote in this space three weeks ago, “As economies in Europe, UK and Japan slow down at a quicker rate than the US, and may go recessive for longer, the $USD will likely continue to rally with higher highs and higher lows. That’s the definition of a Bull phase.”

Having said that I added, “But, there will be another $USD pull-back soon, which will boom commodity prices again, sinking the equity market, and that will be followed by another rally in the $USD that will help equities but pull back the commodities.”

We did get that pull-back in the $USD on Friday, which did rocket the precious metals, but the DJIA dropped just -0.11%, and the other US indexes actually managed gains on Friday.

What I wrote here a week ago is quite important, I think:

At some point – after the $USD balances out with the Euro and Yen in terms of fair value – the Dollar:Gold hedge will fail. Then when the US economy starts to grow, and the $USD continues to rally, it will be seen that the Gold price will rally too. Why? The hedge worked while markets were trying to find a balance between the world’s major currencies, particularly as one would overshoot the other and back again. The POG is denominated in USD so it makes sense that a lower Dollar means a higher transaction price, but in terms of trend, that’s a different matter. Once the Euro say matches up with the USD, it can be understood here by all, I think, that Europe’s politicians are just as prone to spending money they don’t have as is Washington. So ALL SIDES are printing the stuff FAST. That means that Gold, which has been for centuries all over the world a storehouse of value, must trend higher. What will stop this trend is when the money being printed actually starts creating economic wealth just as FAST. Then people will sell their gold and put the money to good use. They will demand an economic return rather than keep it in cash or bonds that have interest rates less than the inflation rate. The latter is not happening; wealth is being destroyed. So traders are sticking to gold – just trading in and out as per my earlier discussion.

The forex market absolutely dwarfs the precious metal market in size and importance; but if you can get the hang of forex trading, it will be a significant help to trading precious metals successfully.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) lost -0.04% W/W, closing at 1.4229, which appears quiet. But, on Friday, the Euro gained +1.85%, which truly was an awesome move for a single day.

The Euro 50day MA is 1.5145 and the 200day MA is 1.5199.

Europe is still saddled with a shockingly bad economy relative to the US, so I think the Euro has more downside. It was up Friday, but that was hot money at work. A couple days of rally maybe, but I wouldn’t count on more. Maybe this intervention from Washington and NYC will alter the landscape, but that too will likely pass.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound gained +1.74% W/W, closing at 1.7943. For three consecutive weeks, the Pound had taken a beating (-0.70%, -1.56% and -3.27%), so the reversal came faster and harder than for the Euro. But the Pound too may not rally too far. The UK economy is in real rough shape.

The analysts and media are saying that Britain could be in for the roughest period economically in sixty years. “Bloody hell”, they say in England.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 1.9064 and 1.9636.

A week ago I wrote in this space, “I have to think that once the stories come out re the Fannie/Freddie bail-out and then the unreported (but soon to be reported) losses of HB&B US, the $USD will sink a bit and the Pound and Euro will rally a bit off its presently over-sold condition.” I had it sized up right.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lost -0.37% this week, closing at 92.67.

A week ago I wrote in this space, “The Yen started down against the USD after July 15, but has now rallied back for two weeks. The Euro and Pound have not. So, it’s either the Yen track back against the others or the others reverse their fall and have a bit of a rally here. I think the latter, but remember; I’m not Bernanke, who knows these things.” I think I was right there too.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 92.51 and the 200-day MA is 93.94.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) gained +0.15 to 94.23. I purchased USD and sold Cdn Dollars prior to my trip this weekend (Bahamas uses USD at par). Unfortunately I did it on Thursday; the Loonie rocketed +1.55% on Friday. Cost me an extra $50. These bankers don’t know I’m part Scottish! I’ll remember that for years!

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 96.22 and 98.60 respectively.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Here is the China Yuan (CNY) chart.

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International Equity Markets Review

There were mixed prices this week in the global equity markets. Europe an Australia were higher but most the rest were down a lot.

UK FTSE moved up from 5240.7 to 5416.7 German DAX moved up from 6127.4 to 6234.9 Aussie All-Ords moved slightly up from 4949.5 to 4957.1 Shanghai Composite moved down from 2202.4 to 2079.7 HK Heng Seng moved down from 19933.3 to 19352.9 India’s BSE 30 moved down from 14483.8 to 14000.8, which is right on critical support Japan’s Nikkei 225 was flat, moving from 12212.2 to 12214.8

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There are 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices. This will come after we switch to the Drupal platform this month.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWU	18.41	0.58	3.25%	3.72%	-4.91%	-4.06%	-22.91%	-14.45%	-16.17%	-26.18%
EWA	22.26	1.02	4.80%	3.10%	-7.10%	-4.01%	-22.65%	-16.47%	-13.18%	-22.03%
EWQ	28.62	0.61	2.18%	1.20%	-6.38%	-6.38%	-24.57%	-17.14%	-15.72%	-20.83%
EWJ	11.06	0.07	0.64%	1.00%	-2.98%	-2.56%	-16.40%	-13.93%	-10.15%	-18.91%
EWG	25.68	0.52	2.07%	0.47%	-6.79%	-7.16%	-27.44%	-17.82%	-17.19%	-20.22%
EWC	28.41	0.55	1.97%	0.25%	-7.58%	-3.99%	-12.31%	-15.75%	-8.77%	-7.40%
EWH	15.07	-0.01	-0.07%	0.00%	-5.99%	-7.94%	-30.84%	-17.20%	-16.51%	-23.07%
EWZ	63.77	3.12	5.14%	-1.02%	-14.18%	-11.70%	-21.22%	-29.79%	-22.63%	1.16%
IFN	36.48	-1.66	-4.35%	-2.69%	-3.47%	-11.11%	-41.07%	-11.71%	-19.84%	-24.24%
RSX	33.70	2.71	8.74%	-4.53%	-13.10%	-19.99%	-35.88%	-38.62%	-30.46%	-19.34%
GXC	55.99	-0.12	-0.21%	-6.25%	-13.86%	-11.49%	-37.02%	-20.95%	-21.97%	-30.13%

The BRIC country market ETFs were smashed this week. Brazil (EWZ -1.02%), Russia (RSX -4.53%) India (IFN -2.69%), and China (GXC -6.2%) got hit.

But on Friday, Russia (RSX) bounced back +8.74%. Wow! But, this was a bounce from a hugely oversold market.

Most of the others did rather well. But I still believe that “the equity markets will return to good health only if, as and when the crapola on the books masquerading as investment paper is written off, and HB&B is restructured or fails and is replaced by stronger, prudently managed banks… What is going on today is a real tragedy; Wall Street insiders – the ones who created the problems – are being saved by their friend Henry Paulson. Taxpayers should revolt.”

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA (+1.79%), S&P 500 (+0.76%), NASDAQ Composite (+0.24%), and Russell 2000 small cap index (+0.20%) were stronger, but probably were up in truth about only +0.25% W/W. The fact that GM was up +21.5%, which is a DJIA mover, does not impress me.

The big movers in the DJIA in addition to GM were: MSFT (+7.68%), MCD (+6.24%), DIS (+6.06%), CVX (+5.01%) and KO (+4.95%). The losers were AIG (AIG -45.66%), Citigroup (C -5.82%), General Electric (GE -4.05%), Intel (INTC -2.18%) and Merck (MRK -1.40%).

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GM	13.01	0.26	2.04%	21.48%	25.82%	14.63%	-46.70%	-17.45%	-37.84%	-56.99%
MSFT	27.62	0.28	1.02%	7.68%	-1.15%	-1.04%	-21.58%	-2.20%	-3.53%	-4.53%
MCD	64.06	-0.50	-0.77%	6.24%	1.86%	0.72%	10.26%	7.95%	19.29%	25.12%
DIS	33.26	0.32	0.97%	6.06%	2.06%	2.88%	4.46%	0.06%	5.89%	-1.36%
CVX	84.24	1.44	1.74%	5.01%	-3.37%	-2.70%	-9.87%	-14.09%	-2.87%	-5.55%
KO	54.50	0.35	0.65%	4.95%	2.60%	-0.95%	-10.79%	-4.62%	-7.92%	-2.40%
DD	46.39	0.95	2.09%	4.84%	2.47%	2.54%	6.06%	0.17%	-0.41%	-2.66%
BAC	33.74	0.68	2.06%	4.69%	7.35%	11.80%	-16.81%	14.61%	-8.88%	-31.69%
HPQ	46.97	-0.22	-0.47%	4.47%	-0.76%	3.23%	-5.70%	0.00%	-0.63%	-3.67%
IBM	118.97	-0.23	-0.19%	4.06%	-4.50%	-6.28%	13.64%	-3.94%	1.62%	2.56%
JPM	41.17	-0.48	-1.15%	3.96%	5.89%	8.89%	-2.37%	8.31%	6.63%	-7.42%
PG	73.15	0.07	0.10%	3.35%	3.01%	4.93%	1.16%	10.07%	9.11%	8.68%
WMT	62.41	-0.76	-1.20%	2.75%	4.23%	7.42%	33.07%	5.58%	24.10%	46.13%
XOM	77.50	1.94	2.57%	2.49%	-4.53%	0.06%	-17.12%	-10.98%	-9.85%	-11.58%
CAT	65.46	0.65	1.00%	2.17%	-8.68%	-6.87%	-7.32%	-18.68%	-13.01%	-10.05%
MMM	70.15	0.21	0.30%	1.39%	-3.24%	-3.96%	-15.19%	-7.15%	-10.55%	-21.25%
AA	28.67	1.05	3.80%	1.31%	-11.51%	-10.01%	-20.65%	-24.03%	-24.13%	-14.80%
VZ	34.49	-0.24	-0.69%	1.20%	-2.76%	-0.58%	-20.18%	-5.84%	-0.26%	-17.63%
HD	28.80	-0.70	-2.37%	0.73%	5.03%	6.00%	10.30%	8.76%	10.22%	-17.93%
BA	63.30	0.73	1.17%	0.65%	-4.58%	-2.27%	-26.92%	-14.60%	-12.63%	-35.62%
PFE	18.62	0.23	1.25%	0.59%	-3.37%	-5.86%	-18.73%	5.02%	-12.50%	-23.03%
UTX	64.46	0.53	0.83%	0.59%	-3.39%	-2.51%	-14.29%	-5.09%	-5.48%	-13.87%
T	31.54	-0.02	-0.06%	0.13%	-2.14%	1.35%	-23.07%	-13.33%	-10.70%	-20.87%
JNJ	70.59	-0.57	-0.80%	-0.11%	-1.15%	-0.84%	7.10%	7.46%	12.85%	12.93%
AXP	38.95	0.19	0.49%	-1.14%	-3.57%	1.96%	-23.69%	-10.29%	-8.87%	-34.52%
MRK	33.82	-0.17	-0.50%	-1.40%	-7.09%	-5.90%	-41.05%	-4.46%	-20.33%	-31.91%
INTC	20.16	-0.03	-0.15%	-2.18%	-14.54%	-17.24%	-20.47%	-8.57%	-4.55%	-20.82%
GE	26.75	-1.41	-5.01%	-4.05%	-7.21%	-9.38%	-27.23%	-7.92%	-21.23%	-32.96%
C	17.96	-0.65	-3.49%	-5.82%	-5.87%	-0.66%	-37.90%	-9.70%	-15.32%	-60.75%
AIG	12.14	-5.41	-30.83%	-45.66%	-43.56%	-46.80%	-78.44%	-63.95%	-72.19%	-81.23%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA BAC C CAT CVX DD DIS GE GM HD HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on the two DJIA components known as Big Oil in the US: Chevron (CHV) and Exxon Mobil (XOM). Exxon is a Cara 100 company.

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Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Google Finance file)
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Sep. 13: next one is due Dec. 12)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Google Finance file)
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 13: next one is due Dec. 12)

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In last week’s WIR I wrote, “Next week, Value Line will be reporting on Chevron and Exxon. Now that should be interesting. What they don’t seem to report on though is the unit volumes – just revenues. That’s a mistake in judgment. Traders know the commodity prices; what they need to see are the trends in unit volumes.”

This week we can look at the VL reports to illustrate my point. Looking at Exxon, the 2008 estimated Revenue is $455 billion, which is a +26.9% increase over 2007 ($358.6 bil). But the average price increase for Crude Oil and Distillates is much higher, so unit volume must be contracting for Big Oil. For 2009, VL forecasts revenues of $460 billion, which is an increase of just +1.1%. And while oil prices are coming down presently, and may fall further, VL (and the Wall St consensus) is forecasting higher prices through the winter, and likely through 2009 as the global economy starts to pick up steam again.

Reserve replacement is an issue, especially at Chevron, and major new discoveries are growing infrequent. Global demand will continue to rise.

OPEC says this week they are going to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day, but on the OPEC website they show Demand vs Supply Forecasts that show a required OPEC supply increase of +5.0% (2012), +10.4% (2015), +22.1% (2020) and +49.3% (2030).

The bottom line to this discussion then is that the top-line revenue for Big Oil ought to continue to grow. In fact, through to 2011-2013, VL is forecasting annual revenue increases of +14% for Chevron and +12% for Exxon, which is slightly higher than for the past ten years in both cases.

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Comparing Chevron to Exxon is a study in contrasts where one can only conclude that Exxon should continue to be the Cara 100 company, which represents, in a word, quality.

The Financial Strength of each company is rated A++ by VL, but on closer examination of the respective balance sheets, I find Exxon is the much stronger of the two. The quick ratio (cash plus receivables compared to total current liabilities) is positive for Exxon but not for Chevron. Exxon has a $40 billion cash position and $42 bil in receivables, but only $77 billion in current liabilities and total fixed debt of under $10 billion. There is no way this company can fail. Chevron is also a financial powerhouse, but clearly not in the same league.

Chevron is paying out in dividends from profit about 25% whereas Exxon is down at 18%, and should be raised. Neither has preferred shares to burden the common shareholder, and as you can see the fixed debt is so small that total interest coverage is huge, eg, 25x for Exxon.

For each company, the net profit margins are roughly 10.0% for Exxon and 5.6% for Chevron, while the operating profit margins are 18.5% and 17.0%, again in Exxon’s favor.

The returns, like the margins, are better for Exxon. The Return on Equity is 37.0% for Exxon and 23.5% for Chevron. The problem for both companies is that the returns and margins are falling quickly, the reason being that costs are rising faster than top-line revenues. This is why I say you need to look at unit volumes closely.

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In trading these stocks, there is a healthy spread between the annual high and low prices, as seen across the top of the VL reports. So, if you have any timing skills whatsoever you ought to be able to exceed the Total Returns (capital growth plus dividends) than is possible with a buy-and-hold strategy.

By following along this blog, you can see clearly that I was shouting out SELL at prices over 94 for XOM, indicating later that I wouldn’t buy until the mid-70’s, but with expert use of put and call options (conservatively applied), I believed a trader could acquire XOM at a price in the high 60’s, perhaps 68.

I am confident of that because these are stable, very large cap companies with very few meaningful “surprises”. That means you can confidently apply put and call option strategies. At what I believe is a cycle bottoming condition, I write puts at strike prices where I find solid economic value (ie, very low capital risk), and where I believe I have an upside Total Return growth of say +26% per year.

With XOM, if my cost base is say 68 and my two-year target is say 120 (low end for VL forecast), plus a growing dividend (one that I project to be $1.55 (2008), $1.78 (2009) and $2.02 (2010), you will significantly exceed your performance expectations. You will even beat it if your next sale at say 120 takes three years. VL is projecting up to ~145 for XOM into the 2011-2013 period, based on 10x cash flow per share of $14.65. This is a reasonable analysis and conclusion.

If there is a roaring bull market between now and say 2011, which is quite possible, then 145 is also possible. But, I am more conservative; I don’t think the global economy is going to be that hot, so I’ll stick to the long-term 120 price target. With the extensive stock buy-backs in process, I could see that Earnings Per Share might approach say $10.50 in 2011, so a 120 price target would require a PE of 11.4, which in a Bull market would be quite reasonable.

Exxon will remain a core component of my portfolio. Well-timed put writes plus a solid dividend (please make it higher) give me high income, and well timed purchases of the stock and long calls provide solid capital growth. What’s not to like.

Having said that, you have already read that traders who have a higher risk tolerance would better match up with the Western Canadian oil & gas stocks, particularly some of the juniors that are presently trading at just 2x and 3x cash flow vs 7x for XOM and 6x for CVX. As I see it: higher risk, but higher reward – if your entry is well-timed.

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports. I added the Google Finance links, which are superb.

Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 20: next one is due Sep. 19)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Google Finance file)
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 27: next one is due Sep. 26)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Google Finance file)
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 27: next one is due Sep. 26)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Google Finance file)
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 4: next one is due Oct. 3)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Google Finance file)
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 4: next one is due Oct. 3)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Google Finance file)
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Google Finance file)
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Google Finance file)
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Google Finance file)
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Google Finance file)
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 25: next one is due Oct. 24)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Google Finance file)
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 25: next one is due Oct. 24)

Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Google Finance file)
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug 1: next one is due Oct. 31)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Google Finance file)
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug. 8: next one is due Nov. 7)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Google Finance file)
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 15: next one is due Nov. 14)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Google Finance file)
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 15: next one is due Nov. 14)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Google Finance file)
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Google Finance file)
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Google Finance file)
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Google Finance file)
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Google Finance file)
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Google Finance file)
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Google Finance file)
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 29: next one is due Nov. 28)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Google Finance file)
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance fle)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 29: next one is due Nov. 28)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(MCD: Google Finance file)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sept. 5: next one is due Dec. 5)

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Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Google Finance file)
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Sep. 13: next one is due Dec. 12)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Google Finance file)
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 13: next one is due Dec. 12)

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Wrap-up:

These are challenging times economically, politically, socially, and also market wise. But you were alerted to the probabilities of such conditions over the past two years, and many of you learned a lot about trading during this time, and have taken steps to protect yourself and prepare your portfolio for the good times ahead.

Thank you for the continuous stream of supporting letters I receive. As for the occasional naysayers, the Internet is a free place where anybody can hide behind a nickname and libel and slander to their heart’s content, as long as the publisher allows it; so have at it. As for me, all that negative stuff goes in one ear – if it even reaches me – and immediately out the other.

Other than being emotionally sick or immature, I just see those disparaging comments as more noise in the market that is intended to distract me from what I am here to do, which is to teach and to learn. A few people, I suppose, don’t want that to happen or maybe they are just bitterly envious bloggers.

Trust me; I am at peace with myself, I don’t get distracted and I remain focused on markets. I really enjoy doing this, and won’t stop. There is not a day go by that I don’t pause and think about how the Internet has made it possible to reach so many people in so many countries.

The bottom line with the BillCara.com blog is that we have built a community that represents mostly what’s good in society – intellectually honest students of the market who are for the most part civil with one another in their pursuit of knowledge, risk avoidance, financial opportunity and greater wealth. Moreover, the market content here is mixed with interesting discussions about lifestyle and personal interests – from people of all cultures, races, religions, sexual orientations, ages, educational background and financial standing.

What I find best about this community is that it has developed on its own without aspiring to be different from whom we are – it’s just us -- and not something phony. It is a mature and diverse community. Every person in it has the opportunity to speak up and is subject to critical analysis, which is true to academic learning.

I’ll be in Nassau Bahamas now for most of the next six months. If you happen to be passing through one day, my office is just a three-block, ten-minute walk from the cruise ship terminal. With some notice, I can arrange to be there to meet you (at the office that is!).

I may have to re-arrange the Week In Review around the cruise ship schedule, but that too can be done. Where there’s a will, anything can be done.

Enjoy your weekend. These are challenging times in the market; so rest up!

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