I hope my opening paragraph captured your attention because it also means the end of the Bear is one step removed. Just one more leg down – probably 10-12% -- is what the sellers will take to complete the bottom, I believe.

That’s good news, but it’s not to say that the next Bull market is going to soar from the beginning. In fact; unless and until Humungous Bank & Broker writes off all or most of the dead assets, and replaces lost reserves or restructures/amalgamates with other financial services companies, I think the next Bull for equities will be a rather quiet affair, hamstrung by ongoing credit market problems.

A week ago I wrote in this space,

“The fact is that the growth rate of the global economy is rapidly slowing, with large pockets of recession, and the rate of producer and consumer inflation is far higher than the comfort level of any respectable central banker. The major financial services companies (banks, broker-dealers, insurance companies) are still to write down their so-called asset backed commercial paper holdings to market values, which is the reason these companies are illiquid and have limited funds to lend to producers and consumers. This credit crunch leads to a quandary for capital managers, producers and consumers alike. Where capital has been flowing has nothing to do with Bull markets or bullishness and everything to do with a desperate attempt to find safe havens… Some capital managers are in denial; others are cranking out their excuses because they fear that the Other People whose Money they have been managing improperly are about to become an ugly crowd of litigants.

After the close a week ago Thursday, which was up +213 points in the DJIA index and +329 points over three straight days of gains, I noted early the next day: “Traders have not started a Bull market; they are not even bullish. They are scared.” I stated that my 10000/2000 opinion was still in place, reminding you, “it’s not a forecast; it’s a guess” and one that I made Feb-10-2007, and again in March, then June, and December of last year and again earlier this year.

That Friday the DJIA sold down -172 points, most of it in the late afternoon. This week the DJIA index dropped a further -323 points. That’s a loss of -500 points in five sessions (Monday was Labor Day).

At about 11:20am ET on Friday, the DJIA stood at 11038. Just because the index was pushed up +200 points in the last 4½ hours, which happened after European and Asia-Pacific markets were closed, I continue to opine: Where’s the Bull? Traders are scared.

To repeat, every major international equity index is on the verge of a breakdown. Look at Canada’s TSX Composite, the UK FTSE 100, France’s CAC, the German DAX, the Italian MIBTEL, the Spanish IGBM, the Japanese Nikkei 225, the Shanghai Composite; the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Australian All Ordinaries, and Brazilian Bovespa. They are all testing primary support levels, apparently ready for one more leg down, but also within 5% to 15% of their ultimate bottom.

The closer an index gets to its cycle bottom; there will be some sectors and industries that bear watching. It could be that in some of these cases, the July 15 lows will prove to be their long-term cycle lows. Talking Heads (on behalf of Wall Street) coming to you via Mainstream Media would have you believe that those July 15 lows are clearly the bottom for the Financials. I disagree with respect to the majority of the Financials, but I am saying that there are probably some other industries and groups that will not drop lower than July 15 lows.

This is a trader’s market. Volatility demands it. A week ago, I summed up my concerns for the Buy-and-Hold crowd with these words, “Doesn’t this situation go to show that the mutual fund model no longer works? There are times that traders cannot afford to be 100% long, even with large cash positions.”

This week, the DJIA and Russell small cap indexes dropped -2.8%, the S&P 500 fell -3.2% and the NASDAQ Composite plunged -4.7%. That was another tough week for those who are long only traders and very long-term position holders. As markets zero in on a cycle bottom, however, and there are low-risk values starting to pop up, traders have to remain poised for the final dump. That’s going to be the best point of entry.

Will the DJIA drop to 10000 and the NASDAQ Composite to 2000? I think so, but I have no crystal ball. When I first made that call, I thought it would happen in 2007, but the Financials were really goosed after that, which extended the Bull. So I made the call again in June, July, September, after I saw how the XLF/XLY had run into problems.

Bill Cara: Week #06 (2007-02-10) in Review (FINAL)
10 Feb 2007 ... In any case, I am looking for Dow 10000 (2007) before Dow 15000 (2009). ......

I repeated it again a few times this year because I was getting sick of listening to CNBC TV call a bottom half way through the Bear. Anyway, the point is you need to take a big picture view so that you can set strategies. Then you watch the data series evolve, which plays into your setting up tactics.

You know, there is seldom a day go by when a Talking Head doesn’t make some mocking smart-ass remark like “I’m not smart enough to time the market.” What should be mandatory from regulators whenever some so-called professional makes that remark is to require the TV network to flash on the screen the person’s 1, 3 and 5 year performance record. Then we’ll all see the idiot is not smart enough to do anything.

Let’s take a closer look at what happened during the week. Maybe we can start isolating a few of the opportunities that are starting to evolve as the Bear moves closer to the end. With 17 of the Cara 100 at 52-week lows on Friday, there ought to be a few worthy of looking at. That would be helpful.

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Global Economics Review

Weekly International Economic Report . I encourage everybody to read these reports and discuss them in the Discourse, but check the publishing date if you are looking for the latest data.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Economic Calendar.

US ISM Manufacturing Index for August. Econoday reported: “Production is holding up the manufacturing sector, the results of the ISM's August survey which shows a second month of little change, at 49.9 for the headline index vs. July's 50.0. Growth in production slowed slightly but still showed a plus 50-reading of 52.1. Employment dipped fractionally below 50 but is still probably a positive for the report, at 49.7 vs. July's 51.9. New orders improved slightly but are still on the low side, at 48.3 vs. 45.0. Backlog orders are definitely a weakness at 43.5, up 5 tenths but still well below 50… A jump in customer inventories, up 7.5 points to 54.5, indicates that respondents think inventories at their suppliers are too high, no surprise given the weak order data.”

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for August. Econoday reported: “The non-manufacturing sector held steady and soft in August, the results of today's ISM report that shows a mild 1.1 point improvement in the composite headline index to 50.6. Key readings show little change and continue to hover near 50, a breakeven level that indicates no month-to-month change. New orders are the best news in the report, rising nearly 2 points but still under 50 at 49.7 to indicate that slightly more respondents reported a month-to-month decline than increase. Employment is the worst news in the report, down 1.7 points to 45.4 to indicate deepening contraction and pointing to trouble for tomorrow's employment report… The business activity index, equivalent to a production index, rose more than 2 points to 50.6 and confirms similar strength in the ISM production index in Tuesday's manufacturing report. But increased production isn't helping employment.”

US Factory Orders for July. Econoday reported: “Factory orders rose 1.3 percent in July vs. an upwardly revised 2.1 percent jump in June (1.7 percent originally reported). New orders for durable goods were unrevised at 1.3 percent while new orders for nondurable goods, the new component in today's data and benefiting from gains in food products, rose 1.2 percent following a 2.8 percent jump in June… Capital goods data are unusually strong for July with nondefense orders jumping 6.3 percent and 2.5 percent excluding aircraft. Shipments in these categories were also strong, up 2.5 percent and up 1.6 percent excluding aircraft… Though July's data from the manufacturing sector proved unusually strong, yesterday's ISM report for August was no better than flat -- a result that renews concern over the sector.”

US Jobs Report for August. Econoday stated: “While it looks like the first half of 2008 dodged recession, the August jobs report suggests that there is a strong chance that the economy is headed there now. The unemployment rate now is at its highest since September 2003. But first, nonfarm payroll employment in August fell 84,000, following a decline of 60,000 in July and a decrease of 100,000 in June. Payroll jobs have fallen for eight consecutive months… The latest decrease was widespread. Manufacturing and construction jobs fell by 61,000 and 8,000, respectively. Service-providing jobs declined 27,000 after falling 12,000 in July. Revisions to overall payroll jobs in June and July were a net decrease of 58,000. On the inflation front, average hourly earnings posted a 0.4 percent gain in August, topping the consensus expectations for a 0.3 percent increase… Within service-producing industries, weakness was led by a 53,000 drop in professional and business services - largely temp help. The next largest decline was in trade, transportation & utilities - primarily a 20,000 drop in retail trade… Turning to the household survey, the labor market continues to weaken. The civilian unemployment rate jumped to 6.1 percent from 5.7 percent in July and was worse than the consensus forecast for an increase to 5.8 percent. August's number is the highest since the 6.1 percent seen for September 2003… The August employment report clearly shows a weakening in the economy after a second quarter resurgence. Today's numbers are likely to dump on equities and boost bonds, lowering yields. In turn, the dollar should slip. The August employment report does not bode well for company profits in general in the near term.”

How is next week’s calendar looking?

US Economic Calendar.

US Consumer Credit for July. For June, Econoday reported: “Consumer credit surged $14.3 billion in June for the largest monthly gain since November. Surprisingly, the gain was centered in non-revolving credit which rose $8.9 billion for the largest jump since August. Car sales were unusually weak in June and even weaker in July, definitely pointing to lower non-revolving levels ahead. June's gain likely reflects gains in non-auto personal loans. July's number likely will reflect the winner of the cross currents of a dip in auto loans (at least until August) and consumers' increased reliance on credit cards to get by… Consumer credit Consensus Forecast for July 08: +$8.8 billion.”

US Pending Home Sales for July. For June, Econoday reported: “Pending home sales bounced back in June, up 5.3 percent compared to May and down 12.3 percent in a year-on-year reading, benefiting from easier comparisons, that continues to improve. Strength was centered in the South and West with the Northeast and Midwest lagging but still showing gains. The National Association of Realtors said tax credits to first-time buyers may have given a boost to the month's sales. The dollar firmed in immediate reaction to the report which will improve the outlook for July home sales data.”

US Import and Export Prices for August. For July, Econoday reported: “Import prices extended their run of increases in July though at a slightly less severe monthly rate of 1.7 percent, down from four prior months of increases near or above 3 percent. The year-on-year rate however continued to extend into record territory, up 21.6 percent vs. 21.1 percent in June. The easing month-on-month rate reflects less severe increases for petroleum imports, up 4.0 percent vs. four straight months of high single digit readings. Excluding petroleum, import prices rose a monthly 0.9 percent in July. For August we may actually see a decline in the overall index due to lower oil and other commodity prices. But we are also likely to see gains on the high side for consumer goods and capital equipment as the recent rise in the dollar has not had time to impact prices… Import prices Consensus Forecast for August 08: -1.7 percent.”

US International Trade data for July. For June, Econoday stated: “The U.S. international trade gap unexpectedly shrank in June despite a jump in the oil deficit. The narrowing was due to both a jump in exports and weaker consumer and business demand in the U.S. The overall U.S. trade gap fell to $56.8 billion from a $59.2 billion deficit in May. In June, exports jumped 4.0 percent while imports rose only 1.8 percent. The oil gap jumped to $36.4 billion in June from $32.8 billion in May, while the nonoil goods deficit fell to $32.2 billion from $38.0 billion in May. Looking ahead, we may see some modest bounce back in non-oil imports as they were unusually weak in June but given continued sluggishness in the economy, import growth outside of oil is still likely soft. Oil prices were still rising into early July and we are likely to some further rise in the monthly average price for oil imports. However, a decline in physical quantities of oil imported may restrain any expansion of the oil deficit. It is likely too early for a stronger dollar and slower growth abroad to have impacted export growth in July - but look for softness in coming months… International trade balance Consensus Forecast for July 08: -$58.0 billion.”

US Producer Price Inflation index for August. For July, Econoday stated: “The producer price index remained red hot in July, posting a 1.2 percent increase, following a 1.8 percent surge in June. Even the core PPI rate jumped 0.7 percent, surging beyond June's 0.2 percent increase. The headline number was led by energy but the core was boosted by a number of components. Looking ahead, recent declines in oil prices likely trickled down to the PPI and should pull the headline number down. Also, heavy discounting by auto dealers probably helped ease the core rate as well as the overall PPI. But don't forget the detail - the Fed will be looking to see if weakness is isolated and whether other components are still showing upward pressure… PPI Consensus Forecast for August 08, m/m: -0.5 percent, and PPI Consensus Forecast for August 08, y/y: +9.9 percent.”

US Retail Sales for August. For July, Econoday stated: “Retail sales in July were modestly healthy outside of autos, which declined. Overall retail sales slipped 0.1 percent in July, following a 0.3 percent rise the month before. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales posted a moderate 0.4 percent gain in July, after a 0.9 surge in June. Higher gasoline sales were one of the stronger components, but other components were still positive overall. When excluding both motor vehicles and gasoline, sales rose 0.3 percent, after increasing 0.4 percent the month before. Looking ahead, there are cross currents for the headline number. The auto component will likely be up due to a surge in unit new motor vehicles in August. However, a decline in gasoline prices will be pushing down on overall sales. Outside of these two major components, weekly store sales indicate soft numbers… Retail sales Consensus Forecast for August 08: +0.3 percent.”

US Business Inventories for July. For June, Econoday stated: “Business inventories jumped 0.7 percent in June for the largest monthly rise since November. Inventories at factories jumped 1.0 percent in June while inventories at wholesalers jumped 1.1 percent. But retailers have been tight fisted with stocks as retail inventories slipped 0.1 percent. Department stores and auto dealers in particular have been slashing inventories, with inventories falling 0.8 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, in June. With further slowing in consumer spending, businesses are likely to have pulled back on inventories in July… Business inventories Consensus Forecast for July 08: +0.5 percent.”

US Consumer Sentiment for September. For August, Econoday stated: “The Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index show consumer expectations coming off bottom, albeit cautiously. The Reuters consumer sentiment index in August rose nearly 2 points from July to 63.0. The expectations component rose more than the overall index but came off a very low base, jumping to 57.9 from 53.5 in July. The current conditions component slipped to 71.0 in August from 73.1 in July. There was modest good news on the inflation front as one-year expectations slipped 3 tenths to 4.8 percent, reflecting recent declines in gasoline prices. While July's report was encouraging in that overall sentiment may have bottomed, the index remains near record lows… Consumer sentiment Consensus Forecast for preliminary September 08: 64.0.”

As I stated here a week ago, the US macro-economic data shows that there are pockets of improvement, but the conclusions may be faulty. The credit crunch continues, making it difficult for producers to raise prices (despite rising costs) or consumers to go out and buy houses and cars and other costly durables. In fact, traders today are more focused on the plight of the Financials than they are with macro-economic data, particularly after they saw the same lousy data being reported in the UK, Europe, and Japan.

Also, the lousy employment numbers last week reflect an employment recession. It will be interesting to see how high levels of spending can continue in a credit crunch and period of limited savings and declining employment. In fact, I don’t see how, not just in the US, but also abroad. I don’t see, in this situation, and the high inflation that exists, that corporate earnings could rise to the lofty extent that HB&B is forecasting.

The equity markets are continuing to decline, which supports my view. At this point, except for a few hours of bullishness on Friday afternoon in NY, I think there is still more downside to come. The Banks, Dealers and Insurance companies have still not written off their phony assets and restructured or obtained enough new capital to start a new Bull market in my opinion. Besides, I think there is as much chance of rising interest rates than falling ones, and the bond chart technical indicators are showing that rates may be bottoming here and about to rise. I also don’t see how because the economic data, other than inflation, shows me no reason for rates to be rising. The only factor would be if the rapidly falling commodity prices, like oil, were to base here at 100-110. That situation would clearly require higher rates to keep the pressure on the economy, and hence on downward oil prices.

As I go through the charts to follow this week, I think there’s indications of trader nervousness that equities could crater here. I am mindful that the Interventionists only have so much ammunition, and that the total pool of free capital will overwhelm those who stand in the way of a major sell-off, if that’s what traders want to do. Moreover, I don’t see HB&B using much needed reserves to stand in the way of a broad market crash either, other than trying to keep their own share price levels high (which they need to do for their next round of capital raise-ups).

These are such challenging times for HB&B that, frankly, I no longer have any interest in reading their research reports. I don’t believe that analysts who are under duress career-wise are going to look at and report on any situation objectively. We’re running a business – each of us who manages a portfolio – and we must be objective. This is no time to suffer credulity syndrome.

I did find the Goldman Sachs’ very negative opinions of Merrill Lynch this week interesting; especially in light of my comments and the views of many that Goldman may be looking to take over Merrill.

You see; I question Goldman’s slim write-downs of flimsy assets, totaling just $3.8 billion, and their light raise-up of just $0.6 billion in capital compared to Merrill’s $51.8 billion write-downs and $29.9 billion in new capital. Could Goldman be hiding its mistakes, and preening itself in the process, while putting the knock on Merrill? If – and I say if -- this situation is contrived, and Goldman does ultimately acquire Merrill in order to hide its own internal mess, I think the responsible persons ought to go to prison for life. There is simply too much at stake to permit such actions by crooks. Time will tell, but I’ve got my eye on it and I hope the SEC investigators do as well.

The fact I even mention the possibility shows my low regard for the movers-and-shakers within HB&B. These people have caused the economic and financial mess the world is in today, and now they are looking to their former leader, Mr. Moral Hazard, to bail them out with the People’s money.

The public needs to know they can trust somebody. From this point on, regulators need to study in great detail every bank merger and capital raise. There will be lots of illegal stuff going on because these companies have their backs against the wall. Their executives are desperate, and desperate people tend to cheat.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

A week ago, I wrote: “The cracks in the bullish camp became more visible this week. While the stocks of solid DJIA component companies like General Electric (GE -3.5% W/W), Pfizer (PFE -3.2%), Intel (INTC -2.6%), Procter & Gamble (PG -2.6%) and IBM (IBM -2.6%) were trashed this week, look at what the Dogs of the market did: Freddie Mac (FRE +60.5%), Fannie Mae (FNM +36.8%), Merrill Lynch (MER +12.4%) and Lehman Brothers (LEH +11.7%)!!!”

This week, the DJIA and S&P 500 plummeted -2.8% and -3.2% respectively.

On the week, there were 6 Dow components that were up and 24 down.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The NASDAQ Composite dropped -4.7% this week, which followed a loss of -2.0% the week earlier.

The Russell 2000 index dropped -2.79%.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

This week, there was 1 sector up (XLF) and 9 down. The Financials were down -1.5% through Thursday, but rallied on Friday to close higher.

I think that was window dressing -- the pig with lipstick.

The big moves on Friday came from LEH, C and JPM. Hmmm.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLF	21.69	0.65	3.09%	1.59%	8.72%	2.26%	-23.52%	-11.97%	-13.59%	-35.20%
XLP	28.32	0.26	0.93%	-0.39%	-0.07%	1.76%	-0.25%	-1.15%	3.17%	6.03%
XLY	30.28	0.06	0.20%	-1.75%	0.97%	4.41%	-5.96%	-6.95%	-2.98%	-17.54%
IYZ	23.33	-0.11	-0.47%	-3.11%	-0.04%	2.50%	-20.02%	-14.92%	-1.85%	-29.86%
IYH	64.59	-0.45	-0.69%	-3.84%	-3.51%	-2.61%	-7.86%	-0.71%	-1.36%	-6.26%
SPY	124.42	0.39	0.31%	-4.43%	-2.66%	-2.04%	-14.15%	-11.62%	-7.05%	-15.81%
XLI	33.74	0.04	0.12%	-5.38%	-2.51%	-2.26%	-12.39%	-12.39%	-8.39%	-13.60%
XLB	37.41	0.41	1.11%	-6.55%	-6.24%	-3.16%	-9.42%	-17.74%	-9.92%	-4.08%
XLU	35.51	-0.64	-1.77%	-7.48%	-5.93%	-4.18%	-15.63%	-14.82%	-8.31%	-9.53%
XLK	21.51	0.02	0.09%	-7.56%	-6.48%	-6.11%	-17.65%	-15.35%	-3.67%	-17.96%
XLE	68.67	-0.18	-0.26%	-8.60%	-10.04%	-4.89%	-13.62%	-21.54%	-11.28%	-2.98%
SMH	26.50	0.35	1.34%	-9.12%	-7.92%	-9.71%	-15.50%	-19.45%	-8.46%	-30.95%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RIG	122.27	1.28	1.06%	-5.59%	-7.17%	-6.93%	-16.22%	-17.09%	-13.38%	13.74%
XOM	75.62	-0.52	-0.68%	-6.85%	-5.89%	-2.35%	-19.13%	-15.33%	-13.27%	-13.30%
CVX	80.22	-1.00	-1.23%	-7.98%	-9.38%	-3.85%	-14.17%	-19.77%	-9.65%	-9.21%
PTR	119.32	-0.23	-0.19%	-8.68%	-6.19%	-7.90%	-31.29%	-16.14%	-15.56%	-16.26%
ECA	67.78	0.65	0.97%	-9.25%	-8.74%	-3.68%	-2.63%	-25.26%	-12.85%	14.51%
TOT	64.21	-0.96	-1.47%	-11.13%	-12.38%	-12.50%	-22.90%	-25.16%	-15.58%	-14.60%
SLB	85.79	-0.95	-1.10%	-11.26%	-13.31%	-10.42%	-14.70%	-18.29%	-2.34%	-13.44%
CEO	135.14	3.51	2.67%	-12.58%	-6.09%	-0.60%	-19.28%	-22.38%	-13.28%	12.88%
SU	49.69	0.15	0.30%	-12.96%	-15.98%	-5.12%	-9.87%	-25.98%	-8.42%	8.47%
IMO	44.01	-0.53	-1.19%	-15.25%	-15.48%	-4.76%	-19.87%	-24.94%	-24.20%	-1.15%
PBR	44.81	-0.61	-1.34%	-15.55%	-17.11%	-14.01%	-62.28%	-34.61%	-61.62%	-29.63%
STO	25.53	-0.94	-3.55%	-17.03%	-19.13%	-14.81%	-18.28%	-31.77%	-17.96%	-16.02%

Crude Oil ($WTIC plunged -$9.23/bbl (-7.99%) this week to 106.23, which broke the technical support at 111 (the 200-day Moving average). Consequently, XLE dropped -8.60% W/W to close at 68.67.

A week ago I wrote: “I surmise that there has been a release of Special Petroleum Reserves to control the price heading into what appears to be an emergency condition in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, with Gustav being a potential Category 4 storm as it hits the oil fields… Remember, it was just seven weeks ago that $WTIC was $145/bbl, and the economy was thought to be weaker then, and there were no Cat 4 hurricanes in the vicinity of the prime US oil fields and refineries.” Well, now that GUSTAV has gone by and IKE appears on the horizon, there could be more of the same. Then again, the global economy seems to be hitting a wall, and probably receding in many nations, which will cause the price of oil to continue to fall.

This week, the best oil stock in my list was RIG, a driller, and it dropped -5.6%. When you see STO -17.0% W/W, PBR -15.3%, IMO -15.3% and SU -13.0% plunging like that, and you are not holding the bag, you must be a happy camper.

The IMO, SU and ECA of Western Canada are my favorites among the large caps. They probably have another 10% or more to fall before resuming their secular bull. The US will increasingly rely on Western Canada energy supplies, so I am looking for a bottom. It’s tough with the IMO and SU, especially, because as top-line revenues come down, their margins will get really squeezed due to rapidly escalating costs. I like them, as I say, but I think it’s time to switch horses because the course has changed. I now believe the junior oils of Western Canada – the ones with strong balance sheets and solid reserves – will be the ones I personally buy. As this Bear market ends, there will be many bargains available for those who managed to save their ammunition.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior Basic Materials:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
VCP	20.98	0.88	4.38%	-1.04%	-3.98%	-16.41%	-29.36%	-39.94%	-37.39%	-12.44%
DOW	33.84	0.22	0.65%	-2.31%	-0.62%	4.67%	-12.67%	-15.29%	-10.26%	-20.19%
NUE	48.45	1.07	2.26%	-8.26%	-7.41%	-9.71%	-16.42%	-39.84%	-30.24%	-8.50%
TCK	37.60	1.63	4.53%	-8.52%	-10.13%	-8.54%	3.75%	-23.28%	-10.96%	-9.55%
PKX	96.13	-0.29	-0.30%	-11.60%	-13.92%	-18.81%	-34.36%	-34.63%	-29.00%	-36.40%
RIO	23.52	-0.05	-0.21%	-12.57%	-14.35%	-10.94%	-28.10%	-39.24%	-33.58%	-53.09%
AA	28.30	-0.26	-0.91%	-12.65%	-11.95%	-11.01%	-21.67%	-29.39%	-26.89%	-22.42%
BHP	59.71	-0.05	-0.08%	-17.07%	-15.77%	-10.93%	-15.20%	-29.09%	-19.64%	-4.91%
MT	64.29	-1.23	-1.88%	-17.56%	-18.23%	-22.38%	-15.85%	-38.33%	-18.29%	-1.17%
TS	45.05	-2.06	-4.37%	-18.28%	-17.55%	-21.83%	1.49%	-30.57%	-7.84%	-1.18%
GGB	15.17	-0.24	-1.56%	-18.62%	-18.22%	-23.85%	-47.14%	-70.53%	-53.41%	-36.45%
RTP	314.42	-0.15	-0.05%	-18.99%	-19.09%	-14.60%	-25.08%	-33.83%	-31.80%	10.01%

Basic Materials (XLB -6.55% to 37.41) was also hammered, but not as bad as the Oils, Utilities or Tech sectors.

The best stock in my list here was the pulp & paper giant VCP, down -1.0% W/W. Some of the major miners and steel companies plunged: RTP -19.0%, GGB -18.6%, TS -18.3%, MT -17.1%, AA -12.7% and RIO -12.6%.

This is not an oil problem. It’s not a $USD problem. Pure and simple; this is economic recession related – at least fears of that.

Why is that analysis important? Simply; this is not hot money speculating in forex and energy futures. The major capital pools have decided that commodity prices are going to fall because of demand destruction, and that’s not a situation that can be turned on a dime. Macro-economic data, can be spun, yes, but it takes a while before any significant improvement will begin to show.

That’s not all bad because smart traders know that equity prices usually precede economic data reversals by maybe three to six months. So, when commodity prices plunge while seeking lows, that’s usually a good time to be tracking the equities with a view to catch the babies being thrown out with the bath water as they say.

In this group, I have my eye on base metal miners RIO and TCK. I’d like BHP more if there was less of an oil component. I like some of the steelmakers too: MT, TS (in spite of making pipe for the oil drillers), GGB are ones to watch. The pulp & paper stock VCP is another. For goldminers, I like ABX, GG and KGC and silver royalty stock SLW. Of all these, I like the precious metals plus TCK, RIO and VCP the best.

Mind you, I am blogging here; I have not discussed this WIR with Team Cara. When it comes to trading decisions, even I take advice.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
UPS	63.89	-0.27	-0.42%	-1.25%	2.73%	1.00%	-7.62%	-10.08%	-11.63%	-15.22%
FDX	82.28	-0.52	-0.63%	-1.97%	1.24%	-1.13%	-4.50%	-12.18%	-8.93%	-25.15%
ERJ	32.98	0.44	1.35%	-2.22%	1.35%	14.16%	-26.92%	-4.98%	-24.99%	-27.15%
GE	27.88	0.18	0.65%	-3.30%	-3.03%	-2.42%	-24.16%	-10.24%	-17.20%	-28.05%
UTX	64.08	-0.80	-1.23%	-3.96%	-0.20%	-1.02%	-14.80%	-8.42%	-8.10%	-12.76%
TXT	39.28	0.09	0.23%	-4.43%	3.29%	-6.25%	-41.21%	-35.74%	-30.32%	-31.15%
MMM	69.19	-0.55	-0.79%	-4.57%	-2.43%	-2.80%	-16.35%	-10.72%	-12.34%	-23.05%
HON	47.72	-0.27	-0.56%	-5.17%	-2.11%	-4.43%	-20.33%	-15.84%	-19.15%	-13.61%
BA	62.89	-0.14	-0.22%	-5.20%	-1.04%	-2.78%	-27.40%	-18.65%	-22.08%	-34.38%
ABB	22.69	-0.28	-1.22%	-7.43%	-3.12%	-11.92%	-20.78%	-30.59%	-10.95%	-5.18%
CAT	64.07	0.13	0.20%	-10.62%	-6.74%	-7.05%	-9.29%	-22.56%	-10.83%	-15.18%
FLR	65.03	-0.61	-0.93%	-19.62%	-18.19%	-15.53%	-9.93%	-31.19%	-8.58%	-1.00%

The Industrials (XLI -5.38% W/W) closed at 33.74.

Interesting that UPS (UPS -1.3%) and Fedex (FDX -2.0%) managed to out-perform the US equity market. Traders must have liked those new Manufacturing and Factory Orders numbers coming out of the US this week. If your only job is to beat the market, this is the stuff you need to do it. How many times have I passed along this particular message about FDX and IP/Factory Orders economic data?

Somebody asked me in a letter how long it takes to become a Trader Wizard. I could say that it takes about as long as the time to learn 100 or 1000 of these factors. That plus always placing risk management before opportunity management.

The big loser here was FLR -19.6%. CAT dropped -10.6%. That’s in the course of four days. Ouch! You have to learn to avoid those mistakes, which you cannot do if you continuously hold these stocks. Look at the market cap destruction in the miners this holiday shortened week. Just think about what I said about not wanting to hold the goldminers or the precious metals until the major base metal miners had found a bottom. Some people don’t listen. But, there are factors that you simply ignore at your peril.

In the Industrials, I see that Boeing (BA) has gone on strike. Think about it; it’s a positive. McNerney probably let it happen. The stock is down to $62.89 and, with option strategies, going to make a ton of money for those who are getting in now and over the next 45 days. But the production delay due to labor problems gives the company some breathing room to get its various sub-assemblies delivered from other countries – ones that are not so willing to go on strike.

Boeing is a great company; I just don’t understand why they didn’t buy the airplane production business of Canada’s Bombardier. They should have bought the whole company and spun off the railcar division. The Bombardier turbo-prop planes can take off and land in 4000 feet and they use about 30% to 35% less fuel than jets. The new planes are whisper quiet and (as Porter configures them) quiet spacious. With the marketing and purchasing power of Boeing, that division would really soar.

ABB is another Industrial stock I like. It’s got a bit more to fall than BA, though.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JCP	40.79	1.22	3.08%	4.48%	10.93%	21.65%	-2.06%	0.57%	-15.22%	-37.80%
CCL	38.99	1.09	2.88%	3.20%	8.28%	3.61%	-10.70%	-0.91%	-1.94%	-15.33%
TGT	55.03	1.20	2.23%	2.13%	7.78%	20.26%	11.15%	0.73%	4.22%	-11.07%
BDK	63.49	0.19	0.30%	1.84%	3.69%	2.65%	-9.21%	-0.58%	-5.88%	-24.41%
BBBY	31.12	-0.54	-1.71%	0.81%	5.10%	9.08%	9.73%	-2.17%	7.94%	-7.96%
WHR	82.01	1.77	2.21%	0.64%	2.19%	8.34%	2.67%	15.49%	-2.76%	-13.76%
TM	88.82	0.86	0.98%	0.14%	0.59%	3.40%	-16.57%	-16.79%	-15.89%	-22.95%
BC	13.69	0.28	2.09%	-0.51%	6.12%	0.88%	-19.09%	-3.59%	-14.65%	-43.92%
DIS	31.36	-0.18	-0.57%	-3.77%	-1.48%	1.42%	-1.51%	-9.08%	-0.88%	-7.87%
NKE	58.82	-0.92	-1.54%	-3.92%	-2.92%	-3.34%	-7.05%	-16.06%	-3.27%	6.04%
TTM	9.380	0.130	1.41%	-4.19%	0.86%	-5.82%	-51.77%	-27.51%	-45.72%	-44.30%
EBAY	23.77	-0.04	-0.17%	-6.42%	-3.06%	-6.64%	-26.84%	-20.92%	-11.11%	-32.53%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.75% W/W) closed down at 30.28.

The big winners this week were JCP +4.5% and CCL +3.2%. Now, these are two stocks I like for the next Bull. They probably hit long-term cycle bottoms in mid-July, which may be re-tested in a broad market sell-off. JCP will sell off hard with the Financials. CCL is an oil hedge, so, depending on how low oil goes, CCL will have a measure of downside support during the final broad market sell-off.

EBAY dropped -6.4%.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WMT	60.74	0.96	1.61%	1.44%	3.83%	6.64%	29.51%	1.57%	22.58%	43.09%
BUD	68.18	0.18	0.26%	0.26%	0.62%	0.03%	32.06%	18.06%	45.25%	40.37%
PG	70.78	0.34	0.48%	-0.32%	1.26%	4.89%	-2.12%	6.16%	6.12%	8.13%
PEP	68.92	0.53	0.77%	-0.39%	-0.68%	1.43%	-8.46%	2.42%	-1.94%	1.44%
WFMI	18.12	0.13	0.72%	-0.71%	-1.36%	-3.92%	-54.43%	-39.05%	-49.19%	-58.24%
KO	51.93	0.22	0.43%	-2.24%	-2.95%	-3.85%	-14.99%	-9.20%	-12.99%	-3.28%
DEO	71.85	-0.41	-0.57%	-2.62%	-1.56%	-1.91%	-15.53%	-9.74%	-12.50%	-15.62%
KR	26.87	-0.38	-1.39%	-3.69%	-4.14%	-6.47%	4.67%	-5.39%	7.01%	4.67%
PDA	46.89	1.09	2.38%	-4.42%	-6.39%	-18.93%	-2.58%	-21.75%	-8.69%	23.62%
SBUX	15.18	0.10	0.66%	-5.01%	-3.19%	4.55%	-21.39%	-18.03%	-16.32%	-44.68%
WAG	34.59	-0.35	-1.00%	-5.28%	-4.53%	-1.84%	-7.36%	-5.75%	-4.66%	-23.37%
ABV	58.05	-0.17	-0.29%	-7.58%	-6.34%	-8.53%	-19.91%	-15.08%	-30.40%	-14.15%

Consumer Staples (XLP -0.39% W/W to 28.32) was a small winner over four days, but a small loser over five.

Wal-Mart was a winner this week (+1.4%), which happened in a very bad week for the market. And would you believe that over a very tough 12 months in the market, WMT is one of just four DJIA components that are up, and it’s up by far the most. The 52-week winners are (drum roll because they are all Cara 100 companies): WMT (+43.1%); MCD (+22.5%); JNJ (+14.6%); and PG (+8.1%). That’s an average of +22.1% for these four. I don’t want to calculate the average loss for the other 26, but it’s very high.

Do you recall how a year ago in the low 40’s, I would shout that Wal-Mart was a terrific company and traders who were listening to those sociopathic lying Talking Heads would be the worse for it. Imagine; their lips are still moving, so you know they are lying, while WMT closed Friday at $60.74.

Proof of concept is one of the reasons I blog.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BMY	21.49	-0.01	-0.05%	-0.69%	-1.87%	-0.83%	-17.76%	-0.83%	-3.15%	-25.51%
JNJ	70.67	0.22	0.31%	-1.04%	-0.86%	0.03%	7.22%	5.54%	11.94%	14.63%
DNA	96.64	0.14	0.15%	-1.84%	-0.81%	-0.26%	43.38%	32.18%	19.66%	23.96%
MDT	53.28	-0.50	-0.93%	-3.50%	-5.78%	1.49%	7.64%	3.20%	6.77%	-0.69%
GSK	45.28	0.14	0.31%	-3.84%	-1.97%	-5.88%	-9.75%	4.77%	6.79%	-14.81%
PFE	18.51	-0.16	-0.86%	-3.94%	-4.44%	-3.64%	-19.21%	-0.86%	-16.05%	-25.09%
AET	41.42	0.32	0.78%	-4.05%	-2.88%	-3.49%	-26.87%	-12.78%	-17.26%	-18.08%
NVS	53.38	0.04	0.07%	-4.71%	-4.25%	-7.54%	-2.18%	0.70%	9.97%	0.43%
AMGN	60.41	-0.47	-0.77%	-5.73%	-5.33%	-2.63%	29.64%	34.45%	33.50%	15.46%
WLP	49.02	-1.22	-2.43%	-7.61%	-8.63%	-9.12%	-43.66%	-13.21%	-31.38%	-39.48%
UNH	27.71	-0.35	-1.25%	-7.82%	-8.55%	-4.97%	-51.10%	-18.36%	-41.32%	-43.78%
NVO	51.71	-2.49	-4.59%	-11.20%	-11.14%	-16.35%	-18.95%	-21.65%	-25.23%	-54.66%

The Healthcare sector (IYH) lost -3.84% W/W to close at 64.59.

BMY down -0.7% (it was down -4.5% a week ago) was a minor loser; NVO (-11.2%) was a different story.

Two weeks ago, I noted here: “Medtronics (MDT +4.5%) has been on a tear since mid-May, from under 47, hit a high of 56.97 Friday. The Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 is 69.2/78.8/75.9. If I held the stock, which I don’t, I’d be gone this coming week.” MDT dropped -3.36% the next week, and -2.42% this week. The price is now $53.28 and the RSI numbers are 58.1/51.8/31.8. The loss has been -6.5% over nine sessions. As my old friend, the late Murray Pezim used to say, that’s not chopped liver. The truth is that most people would settle for +6.5% returns over the past year!

I am not very good when it comes to picking healthcare stocks, so I’ll pass from commenting today on possible selections for the next Bull market. In general terms, I like the medical instrument business, and the medi-dent supplies business. I also like the smaller, well-financed biotechs.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IBN	31.71	1.07	3.49%	2.95%	6.77%	-2.55%	-48.98%	-14.18%	-32.95%	-28.32%
LEH	16.20	1.03	6.79%	2.08%	18.08%	-8.32%	-73.95%	-52.14%	-66.29%	-70.19%
MS	41.36	1.02	2.53%	1.87%	11.60%	-3.05%	-18.82%	-7.24%	-0.27%	-33.89%
JPM	39.60	1.69	4.46%	1.85%	9.21%	-0.53%	-6.09%	-5.94%	2.22%	-10.35%
GS	163.24	2.34	1.45%	0.87%	4.36%	-5.27%	-21.37%	-7.57%	-1.05%	-8.19%
C	19.07	0.77	4.21%	-0.05%	9.16%	3.25%	-34.06%	-10.13%	-13.91%	-58.54%
CS	45.67	0.74	1.65%	-2.21%	1.06%	-10.06%	-23.48%	-9.71%	-6.18%	-31.03%
MER	26.73	0.52	1.98%	-2.87%	9.82%	2.41%	-49.34%	-34.74%	-45.80%	-63.88%
HBC	75.90	-0.09	-0.12%	-3.53%	-0.37%	-7.31%	-7.93%	-10.19%	-2.80%	-15.38%
DB	82.71	0.74	0.90%	-3.83%	-1.35%	-11.83%	-35.91%	-20.07%	-25.24%	-34.32%
BBD	17.50	0.06	0.34%	-5.61%	-6.82%	-12.67%	-42.49%	-25.40%	-46.55%	-28.86%
UBS	20.80	0.22	1.07%	-6.14%	3.17%	1.96%	-54.58%	-18.11%	-32.53%	-60.50%

The Financials (XLF +1.59% to 21.69) rallied; the only sector to do so. Yes, traders are wondering why.

Maybe now you get to see why. I pointed it out last week.

Two weeks ago I wrote, “Do you know why most banks still own FNM and FRE in their portfolios? The truth is that if they sell them, a major capital loss would need to be taken and most of these banks would lose so much capital their remaining reserves would be underwater. Those banks would be kaput. Toast… You remember these are the same banks that participated in the Liar Loans they syndicated and sold to Fannie and Freddie, taking back their stock. So, let’s start calling these the Habitual Liar Banks when they refuse to write off their investment in Fannie and Freddie.” Last week as the Financial sector jumped to #1 in weekly performance, so I added: “One look at the Financials board this week shows what’s up, and it ain’t pretty: the Dogs of this sector did it: Freddie Mac (FRE +60.5%), Fannie Mae (FNM +36.8%), Merrill Lynch (MER +12.4%) and Lehman Brothers (LEH +11.7%)!!!.. Meanwhile, the XLF gained +3.2%. Go figure. This result is precisely why we have to day trade this market. The long-term oriented traders, many of whom are making the right decisions, are getting slaughtered.”

So this week, Tues through Thursday, Fannie, Freddie and HB&B were taking a licking, until something clicked late in the morning on Friday – like along comes the Treasury take-over (let’s call it what it is) story of Fannie and Freddie, and everybody hits the Easy Button (I mean the Buy button) for FNM (+9.7%) and FRE (+3.3%) along with the banks that are holding most of that crap, like LEH (+6.8% Friday and +2.1% W/W), C (+4.2% Friday and flat on the week) and JPM (+4.5% Friday and +1.9% on the week). Isn’t it amazing what can happen when Treasury money (ie, your money) prepares to help Wall Street?

More on that here although as one person wrote to me, “Read it and weep!”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/business/07fannie.html

This is really sick. While Paulson et al are sticking it to those who aren’t on their team, which is like 99% of Americans, there are countless millions who remain blissfully unaware. They are given six-second sound bites that say saving Fannie and Freddie : (i) is desperately needed, and (ii) will make a profit for the country. The joke of all time. $100 billion to be invested in FNM and FRE to save the current stakeholders, which are almost all banks and friends of Paulson. That capital should be used to fund a newco that buys the best assets of Fannie and Freddie and let's the rest sink along with the banks that sold them that crap. The credit market crisis would be over soon, and America would be back on track. As it stands, the taxpayers have saved the Hamptons for Wall Street. Nobody's going to jail. Nobody's getting fired on the executive floor at HB&B. $100 billion pissed away because Mr. Moral Hazard told you it was necessary, and a bought-and-paid-for Congress kowtowing the HB&B line. Makes me sick.

Tell me; if the Republicans do get voted in, does the Alaskan vote for Dr. Ron Paul mean anything? (smiley goes here) I’m wondering if those red-meat reformers McCain and Palin would nominate him for Treasury Secretary? Wouldn’t that be something!

Not to get off on a political tangent here, but for those folks who don’t know that I have no horses in the US election, but who fear I am here to support Obama, I want to set the record straight. If I was an American, I would have voted for George H.W. Bush both times, then Clinton his second run, then George W. Bush both times – based on my being fiscally conservative, and also not liking the voting alternatives at those times. Now, I’m not so sure there is a clear choice, except I will say that this weekend my faith in Obama having a clue about finances and economics was shattered, and I’m starting to get comfortable with the notion of McCain as President. Obama is definitely the most uplifting orator, but I think the only thing that would sway me to him would be if he were to announce (i) his reaching across the aisle to pick Dr. Ron Paul for Treasury Secretary and (ii) going to Hillary Clinton for Secretary of State. I’m afraid that if I hear from Obama more of his talk about money matters, which he’s going to have to do in the debates, I might throw up. Do you get the sense I am really disappointed!

As for the market interest, ie, looking for stocks in the Financial sector to buy for the next Bull market; I have no interest – other than the electronic brokers, like maybe IBKR and OXPS.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SNDK	17.64	4.18	31.05%	16.28%	19.76%	9.09%	-46.82%	-38.56%	-21.36%	-68.42%
SAP	54.20	-0.70	-1.28%	-3.97%	-3.23%	-7.02%	6.84%	-0.18%	12.61%	0.74%
INFY	39.39	-0.13	-0.33%	-4.86%	-2.16%	-3.67%	-11.34%	-20.21%	3.14%	-17.73%
GOOG	444.25	-6.01	-1.33%	-6.23%	-8.69%	-7.28%	-35.16%	-24.23%	-0.77%	-15.83%
CTSH	27.75	-0.33	-1.18%	-6.57%	-7.22%	-6.44%	-13.90%	-24.55%	-10.89%	-22.33%
ADBE	40.91	-1.28	-3.03%	-7.67%	-8.09%	-5.34%	-1.92%	-6.79%	26.19%	-6.49%
AAPL	160.18	-1.04	-0.65%	-7.80%	-8.10%	-2.07%	-17.79%	-15.44%	28.67%	17.12%
CSCO	22.26	-0.02	-0.09%	-9.73%	-8.13%	-5.60%	-16.13%	-19.17%	-8.28%	-30.91%
ORCL	20.07	0.14	0.70%	-11.35%	-10.00%	-11.78%	-10.76%	-13.42%	6.76%	-3.18%
QCOM	47.67	-0.87	-1.79%	-11.67%	-12.87%	-13.92%	24.17%	-3.48%	14.87%	22.45%
INTC	20.61	0.09	0.44%	-12.63%	-10.59%	-12.93%	-18.70%	-13.66%	2.03%	-20.70%
RIMM	106.95	-0.54	-0.50%	-15.55%	-19.16%	-15.95%	-5.94%	-21.12%	5.13%	28.45%

Tech (XLK -7.56% to 21.51 and Semi-conductors (SMH -9.12% to 26.50) were dumped yet again this week. Just like the last two weeks they were the worst sector and sub-sector performers.

Among the chip makers, Intel (INTC -12.6%) was a huge loser, but SanDisk (SNDK +16.3%) was the recipient of talk that Samsung is keen to acquire it.

There are a lot of rumors about SanDisk being in play. I’d like to see the SEC demand a formal statement from the company. If there’s only smoke here, some people ought to be arrested and charged.

In the main, these tech stocks were bashed this week: RIMM -15.6%; QCOM -11.7%; ORCL -11.4%; and CSCO) -9.7% were hammered over just four sessions, especially the first three days. I like all these stocks for the next Bull market; and I love to see them get hammered like this. I like it when the prices of truly great companies come to me.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Telecom (IYZ -3.11% W/W) closed at 23.33.

Verizon (VZ -3.9%) and AT&T (T -2.3%) were losers.

Next to the Financials (XLF -35.2% this year), the Telcos (IYZ) are next worst, down -29.9%. They must be holding a lot of bad paper and also waiting for foreclosed houses to be sold to paying customers. They are also caught in the credit crunch. Boy, what’s going to happen when rates rise and their cost of capital rises!

Like the Financials, I think I’ll avoid the Telco sector when selecting companies whose stocks I want to buy for the next Bull market.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

Utilities (XLU -7.48% W/W) closed at 35.51. There is a lot of shut down gas lines and electrical power lines following Hurricane GUSTAV. IKE next week probably will exacerbate this situation.

Here is the list of North American Utilities that I will be following more closely:
AEP D DUK ED EXC FE FPL NGG PCG PEG SO TRP

For study purposes, there is a good mix of electric (AEP, D, DUK, FE, FPL and SO), gas (NGG, TRP) and diversified (ED, EXC, PCG, PEG) utilities.

Table 12: US Utilities

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	1.67	1.62	1.64	1.58
6 Month	1.87	1.82	1.88	1.85
2 Year	2.30	2.17	2.36	2.57
3 Year	2.14	2.01	2.17	2.42
5 Year	2.91	2.85	3.09	3.31
10 Year	3.70	3.63	3.81	4.04
30 Year	4.30	4.27	4.42	4.69

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.21	2.20	2.15	2.39
2yr AAA	2.16	2.18	2.13	2.14
2yr A	2.41	2.45	2.21	2.48
5yr AAA	2.70	2.71	2.72	3.04
5yr AA	2.69	2.73	2.82	3.07
5yr A	2.73	2.77	2.89	3.27
10yr AAA	3.42	3.47	3.56	3.76
10yr AA	3.42	3.47	3.52	3.69
10yr A	3.51	3.49	3.61	3.78
20yr AAA	4.50	4.37	4.56	4.75
20yr AA	4.56	4.46	4.62	4.80
20yr A	4.77	4.73	4.80	5.11

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.19	4.09	4.16	4.35
2yr A	5.23	5.36	4.83	4.88
5yr AAA	4.73	4.63	4.80	4.95
5yr AA	5.45	5.36	5.43	5.46
5yr A	5.41	5.46	5.69	5.71
10yr AAA	4.73	4.67	4.60	4.82
10yr AA	6.23	6.30	5.69	6.20
10yr A	6.19	6.23	6.05	6.26
20yr AAA	5.80	5.69	5.94	6.44
20yr AA	5.79	5.85	5.74	6.23
20yr A	5.99	5.87	6.19	6.69

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Bond prices were stronger this week again, and again mostly for safe-haven reasons.

For the week, the yields for the US Treasury 2-year, 5-year ($FVX), 10-year ($TNX) and 30-year ($TYX) were down -6 bp, -18 bp, -11 bp, and -12 bp respectively, to 2.30, 2.91, 3.70 and 4.30.

Clearly, with inflation numbers rising, which calls for higher yields, this is a short-term safe-haven move.

The 20-year TLT closed the week up +1.29% to 95.48. The TIP lost -1.40% to 105.18.

The bail-out of Fannie and Freddie will now likely push rates higher in order to save the $USD from cratering.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NLY	15.32	0.78	5.36%	1.32%	9.19%	8.42%	-15.36%	-12.71%	-20.54%	7.36%
TLT	95.48	-0.05	-0.05%	1.29%	2.51%	4.07%	1.17%	6.74%	4.22%	6.96%
IEF	90.04	-0.20	-0.22%	0.62%	1.02%	1.83%	2.75%	3.26%	0.61%	7.64%
AGG	100.81	-0.28	-0.28%	0.03%	0.32%	0.97%	-0.83%	0.39%	-0.62%	1.21%
SHY	83.07	-0.03	-0.04%	-0.05%	-0.08%	0.18%	0.89%	0.29%	-1.06%	2.53%
DRE	25.20	-0.18	-0.71%	-0.36%	6.33%	0.44%	-1.64%	-2.78%	11.75%	-23.57%
AVB	100.02	1.38	1.40%	-1.11%	1.82%	2.22%	9.49%	-4.82%	6.78%	-11.71%
TIP	105.18	0.03	0.03%	-1.40%	-1.42%	-0.67%	-1.37%	-0.24%	-4.11%	3.90%
EQR	42.35	0.70	1.68%	-1.40%	2.44%	-3.07%	16.25%	-4.10%	9.32%	5.09%
FRE	5.100	0.150	3.03%	-3.41%	61.39%	-13.41%	-84.42%	-79.83%	-76.43%	-91.52%
FNM	7.040	0.620	9.66%	-11.45%	45.15%	-29.25%	-81.21%	-74.48%	-70.99%	-88.79%

A week ago, Fannie and Freddie gained +36.8% and +60.5% respectively. I wrote:

“This wasn’t the work of serious traders or even speculators. This was the work of (i) HB&B, and (ii) gamblers. I say that because if you weren’t in the back room in the deal, then you had to be gambling. No one group in the public, and probably no one at Fannie/Freddie or the Admin/Treasury knows how much more ABCP crap will need to be written off. So, roll the dice… I am not interested. I have guessed that these Dogs will be permitted to stick around until the Treasury Secretary departs the Admin so he can say their demise happened on somebody else’s watch. Ha!.. A week ago FNM dropped -36.8% and FRE -52.0% W/W. Over the course of just ten sessions, the losses were -44.8% and -52.4% respectively. These Dogs have to attract a lot of gamblers to make it through to January when the next Treasury Secretary has to make the ultimate decision.”

So, it was the work of HB&B. Morgan Stanley discovered the shocking facts that Fannie & Freddie had been under reporting true reserves. I suppose the investigators: (i) were not biased, and (ii) didn’t leak their findings. NOT and NOT. No way.

This stuff going on in the US Treasury Department is such a dog’s breakfast. The man should be impeached.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB plunged -24.01 (-6.13%) to 367.70 this week.

And they say only the Ospraie Fund failed? Maybe the others have too much rigor mortis to speak up!

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) plunged -$9.23/bbl (-7.99%) to 106.23.

A week ago, $WTIC gained +$0.87/bbl and I wrote: “… traders are talking about Gustav and the federal government Special Petroleum Reserves. I prefer to let it go until we see what happens after Gustav hits, and the feds do their thing.” So maybe they did, but I’m not so sure. Springing oil reserves from emergency supplies would knock the price of oil down, but when you see that so many mining stocks, steel stocks, technology stocks, etc, were hammered with losses of greater than -10% in just four days, and many of them trading in other markets, I don’t think this is a federal govt thing. More likely it’s trader concerns over demand destruction from a receding global economy. These losses came out right after the OECD reassessed the world’s economic strength and knocked down their forecasts a lot.

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 124.94, and the 200d MA is 111.45. The latter “…for the time being is serving as technical support.” That’s what I wrote a week ago.

Seven weeks ago in this space, I wrote, “I feel the market price (then at 129.47) will hit the 200-day MA price (then at 106.58) sometime in the next couple months.”

$WTIC closed Friday at 106.23, having broken through that 111 support.

If it now cracks the $100 psychological barrier, I feel it could work itself down to $80. The determinant here will be the future economic data. If the global economy starts to recover, then oil prices will most likely recover.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

$GOLD was crushed this week. The price plunged -$32.40/oz (-3.88%) to 802.80. But you were warned.

Last week following a gain of +$1.70 I joked, “That’s a tad short of the gain of $41.40/oz a week earlier. But, for some reason the Bulls seem to be thinking it’s on the way to a new record. They even heard that from the President of Newmont this week, which I suppose is like hearing it from a newsletter writer.”

Then I warned: “For $GOLD, the 50d MA is now 895.49, and the 200d MA is 892.90. The 50d MA will soon drop below the 200d MA, which is a crossover that every Gold Bull is dreading. The current price (835.20), being well below the MAs, which themselves are now pointing down, is quite Bearish.”

By the time I got through the rest of the precious metals, I went much further. Nobody missed the point.

For $GOLD, the 50d MA is now 888.68, and the 200d MA is 893.30.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

$SILVER plunged -$1.38/oz (-10.08%) to 12.32. Again; you were warned.

A week ago, I put the writing on the wall. I said, despite a gain of +0.9% W/W, here’s the writing; don’t miss these things.

$SILVER gained +$0.12 (+0.86%) this week to close at 13.71. It was $19.55 about six weeks ago, so, no, I don’t see how the Silver Crazies can be happy… For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 16.50, and the 200d MA is 16.76. Both are falling, and guess what; the dreaded negative cross-over did occur for $SILVER as you can see, but may have glossed over. Don’t miss these things!”

I have no crystal ball. I just look at the same data that is available to you. If I happen to be known as a guru, it is only because I take the time to show anybody how to do this stuff. I do it free because it rankles me to hear securities industry people tell you they have all the answers. What they have is a need to take your money. And you have a need to stop them. You can do that when you understand the data and learn how to trade.

At this point, for $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 16.17, and the 200d MA is 16.73.

Like the other precious metals, I’m looking for a cycle bottom, which will likely happen when the Euro and Pound join the recent strength in the Yen.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLATINUM plunged -$121.60/ox (-8.16%) to 1368.20. A week ago I wrote:

$PLATINUM gained +$48.60/oz (+3.37%) this week to close at 1489.80. The prior week’s gain was +$53.00/oz, so this is quite a bounce. The problem, as I stated last week, is that a week earlier it was down -$171.40/oz (-10.99%). Besides, the 50-day MA for $PLAT is 1760.37 and the 200-day MA is 1825.41. Both are falling and the 50d MA is crashing, having fallen below the 200d MA, which is that dreaded negative cross-over. Hmm, I’m thinking that because the $USD is still gaining strength, and is likely to remain in a Bull phase, and the Gold (and to a lesser extent Silver) didn’t do squat this week that PLAT/PALL are enjoying what is called the Dead Cat Bounce.

I really think that with a secondary school education or just some small business experience, these concepts can be understood.

In any case, the 50-day MA for $PLAT is now 1706.23 and the 200-day MA is 1824.78.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALLADIUM lost even more than $SILVER, plunging -$33.90/oz (-11.05%) to 272.90. A week ago I wrote:

$PALLADIUM gained +$14.95 (+5.12%) to close at 306.80. A week ago it gained +$5.05/oz. The problem is that a week earlier it lost -46.20/oz, and at the beginning of summer, it was a high of $484.90. That’s quite a plunge, and a small recovery bounce. The 50-day MA is now 386.41 and the 200-day MA is 420.30. The 50d MA is falling faster than the 200d MA and there has been a negative cross-over… So, I still think, despite the gain again this week, that this is a Dead Cat Bounce.

The 50-day MA is now 371.49 and the 200-day MA is 418.57.

Now that traders are throwing up, it may be nice to use some of that ammunition you’ve been holding. Like for the other precious metals, you have to watch the Euro, Pound and $USD for signs of reversal. But I sense we are getting close.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER contracts plunged -$28.85 (-8.52%) to 309.85. A week ago I wrote:

$COPPER lost -7.25 (-2.10%) to 338.70. It’s been a tough month, but traders are recognizing the impact of the slowing global economy.

Then the OECD came at the start of the week and forecasted an even slower growth rate for most countries.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 355.49 and the 200-day MA is 354.66.

Not having been trained in Zug, I have no feel for the copper market.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AEM	52.22	1.16	2.27%	-9.59%	-9.98%	3.37%	-7.61%	-21.74%	-28.51%	18.25%
NEM	40.23	0.69	1.75%	-11.05%	-10.38%	-10.02%	-23.21%	-16.01%	-21.62%	-4.87%
ABX	30.94	0.37	1.21%	-11.65%	-14.03%	-14.72%	-32.77%	-23.47%	-41.41%	-7.37%
AU	24.01	0.96	4.16%	-11.89%	-13.32%	-22.07%	-47.65%	-31.10%	-35.51%	-39.72%
HMY	7.760	0.170	2.24%	-11.92%	-8.81%	-15.65%	-27.81%	-34.74%	-41.74%	-16.83%
GFI	8.250	-0.090	-1.08%	-12.61%	-11.29%	-18.24%	-46.43%	-34.32%	-45.33%	-46.46%
GG	29.20	0.00	0.00%	-14.44%	-16.28%	-12.00%	-20.31%	-26.06%	-34.16%	21.77%
EGO	6.630	-0.080	-1.19%	-15.76%	-16.39%	-14.45%	6.94%	-21.35%	-1.49%	27.50%
AUY	9.220	0.110	1.21%	-15.80%	-19.62%	-16.79%	-33.53%	-38.25%	-52.35%	-20.93%
KGC	14.19	0.34	2.45%	-15.89%	-17.60%	-14.31%	-29.58%	-27.23%	-46.31%	14.71%
BVN	19.00	-0.44	-2.26%	-18.84%	-18.56%	-16.37%	-37.58%	-44.28%	-50.71%	-1.50%
LIHR	15.78	-0.21	-1.31%	-24.10%	-22.87%	-28.17%	-52.43%	-45.60%	-59.86%	-38.67%

Sometimes I think the gold bugs enjoy shaudenfreud, ie, taking pleasure in misfortune. They make life so hard on themselves. Sometimes they even make a joke of it as in the case of the Aurelian video I linked here a week ago.

I have been warning that goldminer stocks are being crunched, and that the process continues. A week ago I wrote:

The Goldminer stock group indexes lifted a tad this week: $XAU +0.26%, GDX +0.13% and XGD +2.50%. As I pointed out a week ago, “For the most part this was a Dead Cat Bounce, and the start of a cycle bottom process where the final bottom will be found over the next three months I believe… The 50-day MA for $XAU is now 168.94 and the 200-day MA is 178.13, and both are falling. It was several weeks ago when the negative cross-over occurred that I became a believer that the Bulls had it wrong.”

But people don’t want to wait. A week ago the gold bugs got all hot and bothered by a remark by the CEO of Newmont Mining that the gold price was headed to over $1000. Yes, but when? Besides, I inferred in my reference to him as an amateur newsletter writer, since when does a mining company CEO know much about trading gold? Isn’t that like saying a mayor of a small town can within three years run the world’s major economic power! I suppose anything’s possible, but I don’t like the odds.

Anyway, the goldminer stock indexes this week died big time: $XAU -13.12%, GDX -13.32% and XGD -14.40%. From your letters, I think I captured your attention.

Yes, I know many of you have been listening to me, and you must be happy.

The 50-day MA for $XAU is now 165.21 and the 200-day MA is 177.36.

Here again for those who missed it is the absolutely brilliant tragicomedy improv about the Kinross-Aurelian deal. This video clip is a must-see.

As I say, as a trader, I seek to avoid both tragedy and comedy.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

This week the $USD soared +2.11% to close at $0.7894 or if you are looking at the futures market at 78.94.

The reason for this is that at the beginning of the week, the OECD pumped their growth forecast for the US economy and slashed their estimates for most of the world. How nice for the $USD, and how sad for commodity prices.

The 50-day MA for the $USD is 74.48 and the 200-day MA is 74.27. This is bullish.

Also as I wrote in this space two weeks ago, “As economies in Europe, UK and Japan slow down at a quicker rate than the US, and may go recessive for longer, the $USD will likely continue to rally with higher highs and higher lows. That’s the definition of a Bull phase.”

But there will be another $USD pull-back soon, which will boom commodity prices again, sinking the equity market, and that will be followed by another rally in the $USD that will help equities but pull back the commodities.

At some point – after the $USD balances out with the Euro and Yen in terms of fair value – the Dollar:Gold hedge will fail. Then when the US economy starts to grow, and the $USD continues to rally, it will be seen that the Gold price will rally too. Why? The hedge worked while markets were trying to find a balance between the world’s major currencies, particularly as one would overshoot the other and back again. The POG is denominated in USD so it makes sense that a lower Dollar means a higher transaction price, but in terms of trend, that’s a different matter. Once the Euro say matches up with the USD, it can be understood here by all, I think, that Europe’s politicians are just as prone to spending money they don’t have as is Washington. So all sides are printing the stuff FAST. That means that Gold, which has been for centuries all over the world a storehouse of value, must trend higher. What will stop this trend is when the money being printed actually starts creating economic wealth just as FAST. Then people will sell their gold and put the money to good use. They will demand an economic return rather than keep it in cash or bonds that have interest rates less than the inflation rate. The latter is not happening; wealth is being destroyed. So traders are sticking to gold – just trading in and out as per my earlier discussion.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) lost -3.02% W/W, closing at 1.4234, which is a total hammering like we haven’t seen for years.

The Euro 50day MA is 1.5314 and the 200day MA is 1.5218.

As I wrote in this space two weeks ago, following a stronger week for the Euro, “The Germans will soon be wishing for the return of the D-Mark as I believe that Friday’s loss of -0.81% in the Euro to the USD is more typical of the future than was Monday through Thursday’s trading.” Besides the loss of -3.02% in the Euro this week, the loss a week ago was -0.70%.

The hard working Germans cannot be too happy with the overspending and disdain for saving by its neighbors. I’m wondering when this issue comes to the forefront!

Last week the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained the same monetary policy. Rates were unchanged.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound lost -3.27% W/W, closing at 1.76.36. As I wrote here three weeks ago, “The UK economy is in difficulty.” Now the Pound has lost -0.70%, -1.56% and now -3.27% since then.

Now the analysts and media are saying that Britain could be in for the roughest period economically in sixty years. “Bloody hell”, they say in England.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 1.9292 and 1.9711.

Last week the Bank of England (BoE) maintained its stance on monetary policy, keeping the benchmark lending rate unchanged.

I have to think that once the stories come out re the Fannie/Freddie bail-out and then the unreported (but soon to be reported) losses of HB&B US, the $USD will sink a bit and the Pound and Euro will rally a bit off its presently over-sold condition.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) gained another +1.19% this week, closing at 93.01. The gain a week ago was +1.14%.

The Yen started down against the USD after July 15, but has now rallied back for two weeks. The Euro and Pound have not. So, it’s either the Yen track back against the others or the others reverse their fall and have a bit of a rally here. I think the latter, but remember; I’m not Bernanke, who knows these things.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 92.63 and the 200-day MA is 93.79. The Japanese economy is still in bad shape, so I can’t believe the Yen will move higher much longer. A falling $USD will help it sustain its present levels though, I think.

It could be that HB&B has a BoJ window just like the Fed. Anybody here know?

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) turned quiet. The Bank of Canada maintained its monetary policy, leaving the benchmark lending rate unchanged. Then the Conservatives called a Fall election for October 14 I think.

This week the Loonie gained +0.05 to 94.09, up from 94.04. After the election call, there was a gain of +0.52%, which means to me that traders are confident in a majority Conservative government.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 96.70 and 98.79 respectively.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Here is the China Yuan (CNY) chart.

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International Equity Markets Review

There were mostly higher prices this week in the global equity markets. Only shanghai dropped.

UK FTSE moved down from 5636.6 to 5240.7 !!! German DAX moved down from 6422.3 to 6127.4 !!! Aussie All-Ords moved down from 5240.7 to 4949.5 !!! Shanghai Composite moved down from 2397.4 to 2202.4 !!! HK Heng Seng moved down from 21261.9 to 19933.3 !!! India’s BSE 30 moved down from 14564.5 to 14483.8 Japan’s Nikkei 225 moved down from 13072.9 to 12212.2 !!!

These are major moves, in all countries, in all sectors. Prices are now on the verge of collapse, which is why, I believe, that the Treasury Secretary is trying to stave a crisis for his beloved Wall Street banks by having the US taxpayer bail-out Fannie and Freddie. Where is Dr. Ron Paul when the world needs him so?

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There are 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices. This will come after we switch to the Drupal platform in mid-month.

As I say, “the world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.”

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	37.49	1.09	2.99%	-0.79%	0.13%	-6.46%	-39.43%	-15.32%	-22.32%	-19.38%
EWJ	10.95	0.00	0.00%	-3.95%	-3.78%	-4.45%	-17.23%	-20.82%	-10.98%	-20.19%
EWH	15.07	0.12	0.80%	-5.99%	-3.15%	-5.99%	-30.84%	-22.56%	-18.32%	-18.85%
EWG	25.56	-0.50	-1.92%	-7.22%	-5.96%	-11.37%	-27.78%	-22.92%	-17.36%	-20.94%
EWQ	28.28	-0.19	-0.67%	-7.49%	-5.86%	-10.39%	-25.46%	-23.67%	-17.16%	-21.40%
EWC	28.34	0.22	0.78%	-7.81%	-7.08%	-4.99%	-12.53%	-18.77%	-11.47%	-5.75%
GXC	59.72	1.05	1.79%	-8.12%	-4.20%	-8.01%	-32.82%	-22.56%	-19.44%	-23.96%
EWU	17.75	-0.11	-0.62%	-8.32%	-6.48%	-10.35%	-25.67%	-21.88%	-18.91%	-28.74%
RSX	35.30	0.74	2.14%	-8.97%	-12.75%	-16.55%	-32.84%	-37.68%	-28.38%	-14.40%
EWA	21.59	-0.08	-0.37%	-9.89%	-7.26%	-9.85%	-24.98%	-24.51%	-18.83%	-21.78%
EWZ	64.43	-0.38	-0.59%	-13.30%	-13.78%	-15.12%	-20.41%	-33.82%	-25.21%	4.53%

These country market ETFs were smashed this week. Brazil (EWZ) plunged -13.3%, and most of the rest were down more than -7.2% W/W. In case you missed the significance, the long-only traders are in a world of hurt all over the world.

Mere humans like Paulson and Bernanke are being expected to hold up a global equity market that is valued presently at what, $100 trillion? Bailing out Fannie and Freddie isn’t going to do it. Whether the Fannie/Freddie units are run by their own Boards of Directors or from Congress won’t mean diddly-squat.

Zilch. Nada.

The equity markets will return to good health only if, as and when the crapola on the books masquerading as investment paper is written off, and HB&B is restructured or fails and is replaced by stronger, prudently managed banks.

What is going on today is a real tragedy; Wall Street insiders – the ones who created the problems – are being saved by their friend Henry Paulson. Taxpayers should revolt.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA (-2.80%), S&P 500 (-3.16%), NASDAQ Composite (-4.72%), and Russell 2000 small cap index (-2.79%) were hammered. The sad thing is that the index levels today are on the edge of what could be a free-fall of a further -10% to -15% loss.

The big movers in the DJIA pulling it up were: HD (+4.27%), AIG (+5.28%), General Motors (GM +3.58%), BAC (+2.55%) and JPM (+1.44%). What a rag-tag group that is! Meanwhile, AA, INTC, CAT, IBM, MSFT, CVX and XOM were pounded.

A week ago when I saw that AIG, C, BAC, T and AXP were the leaders and “Quality companies like GE, Pfizer, Intel, Procter & Gamble, and IBM saw their share prices hammered,” I opined, “… (that’s) not a good sign.

I did insert last week a pretty good home-made (by an HB&B staffer nonetheless) story of why HB&B is in dire straits. Here it is again. This problem at banks will not go away until bankers decide to do it, or traders take actions that get them fired and their replacements make them do it.

Here is a link to a terrific slide presentation made by a disaffected HB&B insider who is pissed by his boss's mistakes and stupidities in the sub-prime syndicating marketplace. It's definitely worthy of a read.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HD	28.59	0.02	0.07%	4.27%	7.60%	16.79%	9.50%	2.44%	6.84%	-21.69%
AIG	22.34	1.12	5.28%	3.86%	12.94%	-6.29%	-60.32%	-38.64%	-49.92%	-65.89%
GM	10.71	0.03	0.28%	3.58%	7.96%	9.85%	-56.12%	-37.18%	-53.37%	-65.53%
BAC	32.23	1.63	5.33%	2.55%	10.98%	2.25%	-20.54%	0.75%	-14.17%	-35.48%
JPM	39.60	1.69	4.46%	1.85%	9.21%	-0.53%	-6.09%	-5.94%	2.22%	-10.35%
WMT	60.74	0.96	1.61%	1.44%	3.83%	6.64%	29.51%	1.57%	22.58%	43.09%
C	19.07	0.77	4.21%	-0.05%	9.16%	3.25%	-34.06%	-10.13%	-13.91%	-58.54%
PG	70.78	0.34	0.48%	-0.32%	1.26%	4.89%	-2.12%	6.16%	6.12%	8.13%
JNJ	70.67	0.22	0.31%	-1.04%	-0.86%	0.03%	7.22%	5.54%	11.94%	14.63%
KO	51.93	0.22	0.43%	-2.24%	-2.95%	-3.85%	-14.99%	-9.20%	-12.99%	-3.28%
DD	44.25	0.25	0.57%	-2.25%	0.20%	2.05%	1.17%	-7.29%	-6.45%	-8.57%
T	31.50	-0.27	-0.85%	-2.26%	2.41%	3.93%	-23.17%	-20.17%	-11.14%	-20.71%
AXP	39.40	0.65	1.68%	-2.45%	6.46%	8.24%	-22.81%	-16.93%	-6.70%	-33.58%
GE	27.88	0.18	0.65%	-3.30%	-3.03%	-2.42%	-24.16%	-10.24%	-17.20%	-28.05%
DIS	31.36	-0.18	-0.57%	-3.77%	-1.48%	1.42%	-1.51%	-9.08%	-0.88%	-7.87%
VZ	34.08	-0.13	-0.38%	-3.92%	-1.42%	1.13%	-21.13%	-12.53%	-5.20%	-18.76%
PFE	18.51	-0.16	-0.86%	-3.94%	-4.44%	-3.64%	-19.21%	-0.86%	-16.05%	-25.09%
UTX	64.08	-0.80	-1.23%	-3.96%	-0.20%	-1.02%	-14.80%	-8.42%	-8.10%	-12.76%
MCD	60.30	0.28	0.47%	-4.12%	-3.23%	-2.52%	3.79%	3.88%	11.79%	22.46%
MMM	69.19	-0.55	-0.79%	-4.57%	-2.43%	-2.80%	-16.35%	-10.72%	-12.34%	-23.05%
HPQ	44.96	0.50	1.12%	-5.01%	-3.21%	-1.21%	-9.74%	-7.32%	-6.93%	-10.26%
BA	62.89	-0.14	-0.22%	-5.20%	-1.04%	-2.78%	-27.40%	-18.65%	-22.08%	-34.38%
MRK	34.30	0.13	0.38%	-5.77%	-1.49%	-1.66%	-40.21%	-11.80%	-20.69%	-30.57%
XOM	75.62	-0.52	-0.68%	-6.85%	-5.89%	-2.35%	-19.13%	-15.33%	-13.27%	-13.30%
CVX	80.22	-1.00	-1.23%	-7.98%	-9.38%	-3.85%	-14.17%	-19.77%	-9.65%	-9.21%
MSFT	25.65	-0.70	-2.66%	-8.20%	-5.63%	-6.35%	-27.17%	-9.36%	-8.78%	-9.94%
IBM	114.33	-0.67	-0.58%	-8.23%	-7.04%	-11.41%	9.21%	-11.01%	-0.92%	-3.01%
CAT	64.07	0.13	0.20%	-10.62%	-6.74%	-7.05%	-9.29%	-22.56%	-10.83%	-15.18%
INTC	20.61	0.09	0.44%	-12.63%	-10.59%	-12.93%	-18.70%	-13.66%	2.03%	-20.70%
AA	28.30	-0.26	-0.91%	-12.65%	-11.95%	-11.01%	-21.67%	-29.39%	-26.89%	-22.42%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA BAC C CAT CVX DD DIS GE GM HD HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on one DJIA component, McDonald’s (MCD), which is a Cara 100 company.

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30 Cara 100]
(MCD: Google Finance file)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sept. 5: next one is due Dec. 5)

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McDonald’s Corp started going down hill after the 2000-2002 Bear market, so management made changes to its business model that has paid off hugely. After hitting a low of $12.10 in 1Q03, MCD is today sitting at $60.30. In the past 52-weeks, the gain has been +22.5%. Really; this is impressive.

Operating margins at 30% are now back to what they were in the 1990’s. This year too, the Return On Equity is at record levels, up to 26.5% and going higher according to Value Line. The Financial Strength is rated A++. Management seldom makes a mistake: earlier this decade they recognized that the ownership model was a drain on capital, so they changed the model to focus on franchises; they saw the consumers’ reaction against fatty fast foods and they redesigned their menu and inserted some terrific salads (I have commented on this a couple years ago); and their marketing campaigns are spot on. Management is buying back stock, increasing their dividend pay-out, and growing their cash flow, earnings and dividends at a very acceptable pace. Remember, this is the world’s biggest restaurant chain with almost 400,000 employees worldwide. The Golden Arches are never far away from you regardless of your country and they fit in to local cultures and return huge profits; Non-US operations contribute to 65% of revenues and 50% of profits.

I don’t have much more to say except one little personal story. When my children were tweens, we used to haul them down to Florida a lot. For a couple years I kept a yacht there, which became a summer cottage. So, before leaving Canada I would buy many books of Happy Meal tickets or whatever they were called. You see, I paid for the food in Cdn Dollars, which were really low against the USD at the time, and ate the food in Florida at US prices. You can’t believe how many times we ate at McDonald’s. The kids loved it – like a second home, and Mom (and Dad) didn’t have to cook so much. After a couple years, I think McDonald’s caught on to my gaming their system, and they changed it. If not, Canadians will just have to wait until the Loonie drops against the USD again for that idea to work out.

Next week, Value Line will be reporting on Chevron and Exxon. Now that should be interesting. What they don’t seem to report on though is the unit volumes – just revenues. That’s a mistake in judgment. Traders know the commodity prices; what they need to see are the trends in unit volumes.

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports. I added the Google Finance links, which are superb.

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Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Google Finance file)
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Google Finance file)
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 20: next one is due Sep. 19)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Google Finance file)
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 27: next one is due Sep. 26)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Google Finance file)
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 27: next one is due Sep. 26)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Google Finance file)
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 4: next one is due Oct. 3)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Google Finance file)
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 4: next one is due Oct. 3)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Google Finance file)
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Google Finance file)
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Google Finance file)
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Google Finance file)
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Google Finance file)
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 25: next one is due Oct. 24)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Google Finance file)
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 25: next one is due Oct. 24)

Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Google Finance file)
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug 1: next one is due Oct. 31)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Google Finance file)
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug. 8: next one is due Nov. 7)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Google Finance file)
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 15: next one is due Nov. 14)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Google Finance file)
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 15: next one is due Nov. 14)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Google Finance file)
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Google Finance file)
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Google Finance file)
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Google Finance file)
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Google Finance file)
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Google Finance file)
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 22: next one is due Nov. 21)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Google Finance file)
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 29: next one is due Nov. 28)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Google Finance file)
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance fle)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 29: next one is due Nov. 28)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(MCD: Google Finance file)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sept. 5: next one is due Dec. 5)

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Wrap-up:

Now that IKE is barreling past The Bahamas, headed for the Gulf of Mexico, I plan to return on the weekend to Nassau. October might bring in some more bad weather, but frankly Nassau gets hit about as much as Jacksonville FL, which is seldom. Unless you have a boat and plane or ocean-front home, you don’t give these things much thought – particularly in Nassau. Now, it’s a different story if you happen to be living on the east coast of Eleuthera and Abaco. But, that’s not my problem; I visit during the nice weather.

So, next week, I will rush the WIR for publishing on Saturday – probably write it on Friday night.

Have a good week; but remember what I said about the global equity market indexes. The Fannie/Freddie maneuver this weekend may put off the inevitable, and then again it could also backfire on the Republicans. There is a lot at stake here. Always, but especially now.

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