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September 16, 2008
Daily Report for Tue, Sep 16, 2008
Markets Re-cap
The US major market indexes plunged amid a financial crisis and closed at the lowest levels of the day. Selling continued overnight in Asia-Pacific markets, and is presently occurring again in Europe.
Mostly traders were focused on Lehman (LEH 94.3%), which declared bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch (MER), which agreed to be taken over by Bank of America (BAC -21.3%), and AIG (AIG -60.8%), which reported having problems raising essential capital. But other major banks like Washington Mutual (WM -26.7%) and Wachovia (WB -25.0%) were hammered too. In Europe today, the shares of HBOS and UBS, among many other banks, are also being heavily sold.
At the close, the DJIA (504.48 -4.42% to 10917.51), S&P 500 (-59.0 -4.71% to 1192.70), and NASDAQ Composite (-81.36 -3.60% to 2179.91) were crushed in what was the worst sell-off since 9/11. The Toronto Composite dropped -516 (-4.04%) to 12254, and the Venture Board fell -72.7 (-4.52%) to 1534.8.
In Asia-Pacific markets, Australia All-Ords (1.54% to 4799.8), Shanghai Composite (-4.47% to 1986.6), Hong Kong Hang Seng (-5.44% to 18300.6), India Sensex 30 (-0.09% to 13518.8) and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-4.95% to 11609.7) were mostly crushed. The South Korea Seoul Composite dropped -6.1%.
In the US, no sector was up. The Consumer Staples (XLP -1.2%) fell the least. The Financials (XLF -9.7%) and Energy (XLE -7.7%) fell the most.
Among industry groups, Airlines ($XAL +0.1%) flew a bit, but the Broker-Dealers ($XBD -9.0%) and Banks ($BKX -8.4%) and Oils ($XOI -8.3%) plunged.
Among the Cara 100, only two were winners: AMAT (+0.7%) and Coca-Cola (KO +0.5%). There were nine of the 100 that dropped over -10.0% on the day, including IBN (-12.5%), GS (-12.1 on huge volume), PBR (-11.7%), RIO (-11.3%) and NUE (-10.5%).
Bond Yields plunged as traders sought safe-haven. The US 30-year bond is now yielding just over 4.0%, which is less than inflation. The price has soared to 122.19, which after it had dropped earlier in the year; many followers were thinking they had missed the Sell of the Generation, but not so. It’s coming up soon. The yield on the US T-Bill is down less than 1% at 0.81%, which is shocking, but underscores the removal of cash from accounts that would be unsecured by FDIC in the US. In fact the total capital of FDIC is about $50 billion only and the write-downs and bankruptcies are guessed to be in the $1 trillion (1000 billion) range. So the US government will now also have to bail out FDIC.
Gold remained hot, rising +$22.50/oz to 787.00, but the goldminer shares ($XAU -6.1% to 119.36) collapsed under the stock market sell-off. Traders are now thinking liquidity first, value second.
Crude Oil ($WTIC) dropped -$5.56/bbl to 95.69, probably on the way to 80-85, and the CRB Commodity Index -11.75 points to 348.26, looking like a 320 level can be reached. Crude Oil this morning is down a further -$4 to 91.66 presently.
Also in this morning’s futures market, the $USD is at 0.79155 and Euro at 1.4143. In the past hour, the $USD has come off a tad. As the Japanese Carry Trade reverses and traders are conscious of a Fed rate cut possibility, the Yen has strengthened a lot. Yesterday the Yen gained +2.92%, which is huge for a single day. That’s the same safe-haven move as into US T-Bills.
Spot gold, palladium, platinum and silver are: 783.36, 227, 1114 and 10.94. The futures are falling, while spot is holding.
The DJIA futures are down -83 to 10876, at 8:40am ET, but were -104 to 10855 at 8am.
There is a lot of chatter among commentators who will tell you what is happening as if they are analyzing. What they are doing is merely synthesizing. I remind you there is a difference. In current lingo, these Talking Heads know how to walk the talk, but little else.
Comments & Outlook
Anybody in the world who is aware that something called the stock market exists is today mouthing the words Lehman Brothers.
Big Bank. Big Bankruptcy. Which one is next, people are asking.
The first point I’d like to make is that Lehman Brothers is big, but not as big as AIG, until recently the world’s largest insurance company, or Merrill Lynch, until recently the world’s largest broker-dealer, or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, until recently the world’s largest lenders of mortgage funds. All are kaput; yet Lehman is the first to actually declare bankruptcy in the legal sense.
So, how big is the Lehman bankruptcy? Would you find it shocking to discover that the Lehman bankruptcy is bigger than the top 100 corporate bankruptcies in history, combined? Yet Lehman was not as big as the four other financial companies that died this week, or as big as some that will die in the next month.
That is a scary thought, but let’s be reasonable here. When the dust settles, you will be able to buy a mortgage, buy insurance, and buy financial products and services from a wide selection of vendors. Life will go on.
Yes, the losers today are the stockholders, bondholders, vendors, and employees of the bankrupted companies. Hopefully you are not among them. The expression “There but for the grace of God go I” comes to mind – but bankruptcy is not an Act of God and its occurrence should not ever be a surprise to vigilant stakeholders.
There is no question in my mind that conflict of interest combined with self-regulation is at fault here. Anybody who has been a follower of this blog knows that I have been warning of this crisis. Now that it is a fact that the system is broke, it is time for legislators to put a new one in place that puts the control of the capital markets back into the hands of the owners of capital, and at the same time to remove all conflicts of interest from those who create and sell financial products and services.
If there are no lessons learned from our mistakes, there will never be social equity. There will always be bullies and gorillas like Paulson and Fuld to beat on us. We deserve better.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 12: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 16, 2008 08:49:51 AM | Category: Daily Report








