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September 16, 2008

Daily Report for Tue, Sep 16, 2008

Markets Re-cap

The US major market indexes plunged amid a financial crisis and closed at the lowest levels of the day. Selling continued overnight in Asia-Pacific markets, and is presently occurring again in Europe.

Mostly traders were focused on Lehman (LEH 94.3%), which declared bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch (MER), which agreed to be taken over by Bank of America (BAC -21.3%), and AIG (AIG -60.8%), which reported having problems raising essential capital. But other major banks like Washington Mutual (WM -26.7%) and Wachovia (WB -25.0%) were hammered too. In Europe today, the shares of HBOS and UBS, among many other banks, are also being heavily sold.

At the close, the DJIA (504.48 -4.42% to 10917.51), S&P 500 (-59.0 -4.71% to 1192.70), and NASDAQ Composite (-81.36 -3.60% to 2179.91) were crushed in what was the worst sell-off since 9/11. The Toronto Composite dropped -516 (-4.04%) to 12254, and the Venture Board fell -72.7 (-4.52%) to 1534.8.

In Asia-Pacific markets, Australia All-Ords (1.54% to 4799.8), Shanghai Composite (-4.47% to 1986.6), Hong Kong Hang Seng (-5.44% to 18300.6), India Sensex 30 (-0.09% to 13518.8) and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-4.95% to 11609.7) were mostly crushed. The South Korea Seoul Composite dropped -6.1%.

In the US, no sector was up. The Consumer Staples (XLP -1.2%) fell the least. The Financials (XLF -9.7%) and Energy (XLE -7.7%) fell the most.

Among industry groups, Airlines ($XAL +0.1%) flew a bit, but the Broker-Dealers ($XBD -9.0%) and Banks ($BKX -8.4%) and Oils ($XOI -8.3%) plunged.

Among the Cara 100, only two were winners: AMAT (+0.7%) and Coca-Cola (KO +0.5%). There were nine of the 100 that dropped over -10.0% on the day, including IBN (-12.5%), GS (-12.1 on huge volume), PBR (-11.7%), RIO (-11.3%) and NUE (-10.5%).

Bond Yields plunged as traders sought safe-haven. The US 30-year bond is now yielding just over 4.0%, which is less than inflation. The price has soared to 122.19, which after it had dropped earlier in the year; many followers were thinking they had missed the Sell of the Generation, but not so. It’s coming up soon. The yield on the US T-Bill is down less than 1% at 0.81%, which is shocking, but underscores the removal of cash from accounts that would be unsecured by FDIC in the US. In fact the total capital of FDIC is about $50 billion only and the write-downs and bankruptcies are guessed to be in the $1 trillion (1000 billion) range. So the US government will now also have to bail out FDIC.

Gold remained hot, rising +$22.50/oz to 787.00, but the goldminer shares ($XAU -6.1% to 119.36) collapsed under the stock market sell-off. Traders are now thinking liquidity first, value second.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) dropped -$5.56/bbl to 95.69, probably on the way to 80-85, and the CRB Commodity Index -11.75 points to 348.26, looking like a 320 level can be reached. Crude Oil this morning is down a further -$4 to 91.66 presently.

Also in this morning’s futures market, the $USD is at 0.79155 and Euro at 1.4143. In the past hour, the $USD has come off a tad. As the Japanese Carry Trade reverses and traders are conscious of a Fed rate cut possibility, the Yen has strengthened a lot. Yesterday the Yen gained +2.92%, which is huge for a single day. That’s the same safe-haven move as into US T-Bills.

Spot gold, palladium, platinum and silver are: 783.36, 227, 1114 and 10.94. The futures are falling, while spot is holding.

The DJIA futures are down -83 to 10876, at 8:40am ET, but were -104 to 10855 at 8am.

There is a lot of chatter among commentators who will tell you what is happening as if they are analyzing. What they are doing is merely synthesizing. I remind you there is a difference. In current lingo, these Talking Heads know how to walk the talk, but little else.



Comments & Outlook

Anybody in the world who is aware that something called the stock market exists is today mouthing the words Lehman Brothers.

Big Bank. Big Bankruptcy. Which one is next, people are asking.

The first point I’d like to make is that Lehman Brothers is big, but not as big as AIG, until recently the world’s largest insurance company, or Merrill Lynch, until recently the world’s largest broker-dealer, or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, until recently the world’s largest lenders of mortgage funds. All are kaput; yet Lehman is the first to actually declare bankruptcy in the legal sense.

So, how big is the Lehman bankruptcy? Would you find it shocking to discover that the Lehman bankruptcy is bigger than the top 100 corporate bankruptcies in history, combined? Yet Lehman was not as big as the four other financial companies that died this week, or as big as some that will die in the next month.

That is a scary thought, but let’s be reasonable here. When the dust settles, you will be able to buy a mortgage, buy insurance, and buy financial products and services from a wide selection of vendors. Life will go on.

Yes, the losers today are the stockholders, bondholders, vendors, and employees of the bankrupted companies. Hopefully you are not among them. The expression “There but for the grace of God go I” comes to mind – but bankruptcy is not an Act of God and its occurrence should not ever be a surprise to vigilant stakeholders.

There is no question in my mind that conflict of interest combined with self-regulation is at fault here. Anybody who has been a follower of this blog knows that I have been warning of this crisis. Now that it is a fact that the system is broke, it is time for legislators to put a new one in place that puts the control of the capital markets back into the hands of the owners of capital, and at the same time to remove all conflicts of interest from those who create and sell financial products and services.

If there are no lessons learned from our mistakes, there will never be social equity. There will always be bullies and gorillas like Paulson and Fuld to beat on us. We deserve better.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 12: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU

Table 12: US Utilities


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 12: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 16, 2008 08:49:51 AM | Category: Daily Report