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September 25, 2008

Daily Report for Thu, Sep 25, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Last night, the People’s Bank of China set the yuan central parity rate to the USD at 6.8197 vs 6.8129. That move will help strengthen the $USD, and the US market.

Yesterday, the DJIA (-29.00 -0.27% to 10825.17), S&P 500 (-2.35 -0.20% to 1185.87), and NASDAQ Composite (+2.35 +0.11% to 2155.68) reflected a flat, mixed and confused state. Volume was extremely low as most traders were glued to the testimony being given in Congress by Bernanke and Paulson, and trying to determine the timing of a possible deal.

In Canada, the Toronto Composite dropped -0.15% to 12513.36; but the Venture Board gained +0.78% to 1550.64, so this index is actually up on the week.

Earlier today, Asia-Pacific equity markets recovered a bit after the Chinese authorities moved to support the USD, but tensions are high as there is a run on Hong Kong’s third largest bank. Li Ka-shing has stepped in to purchase shares in support.

The indexes across the region closed today as follows: Australia All-Ords (-0.95% to 4960.8), Shanghai Composite (+3.64% to 2297.5), Hong Kong Hang Seng (-0.15% to 18934.4), India’s Sensex 30 (-1.06% to 13547.2), and the Japanese Nikkei 225 (-0.90% to 12006.5).

European bourses, at 9:15am ET, are up +1.5% for the French CAC, +1.3% for the German DAX, and +0.3% for the UK FTSE. There is still much anxiety today in Europe.

Within the industry groups in NY yesterday, the Utilities (XLU) and Healthcare (XLV) were each up +0.9%, while Basic Materials (XLB -2.0%) was down.

For the industry groups, the Airlines ($XAL -5.5%) dropped on account of the weak USD that is keeping oil prices high, even though $WTIC dropped -$0.88/bbl. There were no notables on the up side.

Among the stocks of Cara 100 companies, yesterday’s winners and losers were an eclectic group, trading on very low volume: The winners were: IBN (+6.7%), CEO (+5.8%), GRMN (+4.2%), and GS (+3.9%). The losers were: TTM (-5.2%), TS (-4.5%), INFY (-4.3%) and TEF (-4.2%).

On the economic front, today’s US employment data is highly negative, which is what I forecast several months ago would be the case.

The US long bond ($USB) did rally a bit on a safe-haven trade (+0.27%) to 117.36. Yields fell. In particular, the T-Bill yield dropped from 0.800 to 0.440. Now it appears that the Fed will have to cut rates by a quarter point.

The $USD gained +0.52% to 76.90 and the Euro lost -0.39% to 146.12. The other currencies were down a similar against the USD. Today, there may be some USD weakness as traders are beginning to figure on a Fed rate coming.

$GOLD did manage a gain yesterday of +$3.80/oz to 895.00.

My ISP is so today that I could not get this report finished. I now have to switch to other work. Sorry.


Comments & Outlook

Long-time members of this community know how strongly I opined two years ago that the shares of Wal-Mart had reached a value point for purchase. That worked out better than any of the other shares in the DJIA index since then.

Now I am going to recommend DELL as a Long Buy this morning. Unless the world collapses... patient accumulation appears just right for this Cara 100 stock. The prudent buy would be on a breakout above $17.25 however.

I will be looking for more Buy recommendations from among Cara 100 stocks today and through the weekend.

Last evening one of my favorite analysts Marc Faber had pretty much what former Wall Street commodities trader Jim Rogers had to say this morning on Bloomberg TV, which is, “Clean out the system and let’s start over.” Yes, they say, this is a normal Bear market, and that’s where I disagree. If you want the first global depression in 80 years, then have at it. This time, the Credit Derivative Swaps have broken the financial system, and there must be a backstop plan to provide the monetary authorities time to clean up the mess, and for legislators to restructure the system.

Common sense must prevail here. I, personally, have no time for emotion-pumping sound bites from entertaining people with axes to grind, people like Jim Rogers. Like any story teller, there is an element of truth; but then they settle back into their biases and we hear the same old, same old. It’s not helpful if it stops you from taking action.

I give you DELL, a quality company with a good product and an industry leading competitive position whose shares are trading at very low prices.

Remember; those other people are story-tellers, while traders are actors, not listeners. It’s time to act.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 15: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 13: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU

Table 12: US Utilities


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 14: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 13: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 25, 2008 09:30:02 AM | Category: Daily Report