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September 25, 2008
Daily Report for Thu, Sep 25, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Last night, the People’s Bank of China set the yuan central parity rate to the USD at 6.8197 vs 6.8129. That move will help strengthen the $USD, and the US market.
Yesterday, the DJIA (-29.00 -0.27% to 10825.17), S&P 500 (-2.35 -0.20% to 1185.87), and NASDAQ Composite (+2.35 +0.11% to 2155.68) reflected a flat, mixed and confused state. Volume was extremely low as most traders were glued to the testimony being given in Congress by Bernanke and Paulson, and trying to determine the timing of a possible deal.
In Canada, the Toronto Composite dropped -0.15% to 12513.36; but the Venture Board gained +0.78% to 1550.64, so this index is actually up on the week.
Earlier today, Asia-Pacific equity markets recovered a bit after the Chinese authorities moved to support the USD, but tensions are high as there is a run on Hong Kong’s third largest bank. Li Ka-shing has stepped in to purchase shares in support.
The indexes across the region closed today as follows: Australia All-Ords (-0.95% to 4960.8), Shanghai Composite (+3.64% to 2297.5), Hong Kong Hang Seng (-0.15% to 18934.4), India’s Sensex 30 (-1.06% to 13547.2), and the Japanese Nikkei 225 (-0.90% to 12006.5).
European bourses, at 9:15am ET, are up +1.5% for the French CAC, +1.3% for the German DAX, and +0.3% for the UK FTSE. There is still much anxiety today in Europe.
Within the industry groups in NY yesterday, the Utilities (XLU) and Healthcare (XLV) were each up +0.9%, while Basic Materials (XLB -2.0%) was down.
For the industry groups, the Airlines ($XAL -5.5%) dropped on account of the weak USD that is keeping oil prices high, even though $WTIC dropped -$0.88/bbl. There were no notables on the up side.
Among the stocks of Cara 100 companies, yesterday’s winners and losers were an eclectic group, trading on very low volume: The winners were: IBN (+6.7%), CEO (+5.8%), GRMN (+4.2%), and GS (+3.9%). The losers were: TTM (-5.2%), TS (-4.5%), INFY (-4.3%) and TEF (-4.2%).
On the economic front, today’s US employment data is highly negative, which is what I forecast several months ago would be the case.
The US long bond ($USB) did rally a bit on a safe-haven trade (+0.27%) to 117.36. Yields fell. In particular, the T-Bill yield dropped from 0.800 to 0.440. Now it appears that the Fed will have to cut rates by a quarter point.
The $USD gained +0.52% to 76.90 and the Euro lost -0.39% to 146.12. The other currencies were down a similar against the USD. Today, there may be some USD weakness as traders are beginning to figure on a Fed rate coming.
$GOLD did manage a gain yesterday of +$3.80/oz to 895.00.
My ISP is so today that I could not get this report finished. I now have to switch to other work. Sorry.
Comments & Outlook
Long-time members of this community know how strongly I opined two years ago that the shares of Wal-Mart had reached a value point for purchase. That worked out better than any of the other shares in the DJIA index since then.
Now I am going to recommend DELL as a Long Buy this morning. Unless the world collapses... patient accumulation appears just right for this Cara 100 stock. The prudent buy would be on a breakout above $17.25 however.
I will be looking for more Buy recommendations from among Cara 100 stocks today and through the weekend.
Last evening one of my favorite analysts Marc Faber had pretty much what former Wall Street commodities trader Jim Rogers had to say this morning on Bloomberg TV, which is, “Clean out the system and let’s start over.” Yes, they say, this is a normal Bear market, and that’s where I disagree. If you want the first global depression in 80 years, then have at it. This time, the Credit Derivative Swaps have broken the financial system, and there must be a backstop plan to provide the monetary authorities time to clean up the mess, and for legislators to restructure the system.
Common sense must prevail here. I, personally, have no time for emotion-pumping sound bites from entertaining people with axes to grind, people like Jim Rogers. Like any story teller, there is an element of truth; but then they settle back into their biases and we hear the same old, same old. It’s not helpful if it stops you from taking action.
I give you DELL, a quality company with a good product and an industry leading competitive position whose shares are trading at very low prices.
Remember; those other people are story-tellers, while traders are actors, not listeners. It’s time to act.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 15: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 13: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 14: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 13: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 25, 2008 09:30:02 AM | Category: Daily Report









