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September 19, 2008

Daily Report for Fri, Sep 19, 2008

Markets Re-cap

“A reversal of fortunes is likely,” which I wrote yesterday morning, turned out to be the understatement of the year.

Observing the market’s turn on Wednesday afternoon, which I discussed yesterday morning, I wrote: “Immediately, there was a turn in the equity market indexes around the world, and prices started to rally. Some of this is short covering, and some of it will be the use of Other People’s Money by the financial services companies to pump the shares of stocks in their own industry; but much of the volume will be from traders who were cognizant that the equity market had been heavily sold down to value finding levels. So, today, there will be what may likely be the start of a market rally that lasts for as long as it takes the financial services industry to sort out their issues with write-downs and diminished reserves.”

I said the bell had rung.

Yesterday, there were soaring share prices all over the world. This morning the prices are continuing to soar.

At the close yesterday, the DJIA (+410.03 +3.86% to 11019.69), S&P 500 (+50.12 +4.33% to 1206.51), and NASDAQ Composite (+100.25 +4.78% to 2199.10) had what was a record shattering rally. The Toronto Composite (+1.57% to 12064.57) and the Venture Board (+0.56% to 1477.88) were also up, but not as much as the commodity markets are now under control of the US monetary authorities and the banks they are supporting.

Earlier in the day the Asia-Pacific and European markets also soared with the biggest rally for many years: Australia All-Ords (+4.06% to 4840.7), Shanghai Composite (+9.46% to 2075.1), Hong Kong Hang Seng (+9.61% to 19327.7), India Sensex 30 (+5.46% to 14042.3), and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+3.76% to 11920.9).

In Europe today, at 8:30am, the French CAC was up +7.6%, German DAX up +5.46% and UK FTSE up +8.3%. The Financials are leading the central bank inspired rally.

I continue to believe the equity market will split the financials from the non-financials, where the non-financials started a new Bull market on Wednesday afternoon, but where the financial stocks will only rally for a time before falling again to test the sector bottom. In time, the financial sector will likely be seen to have missed the first leg of this new Bull “because traders know: (i) the balance sheet liabilities of banks are understated and their assets over-stated, and (ii) the central banks that have been coordinating this emergency lending must recover those funds to then restore the health of their own banks and the confidence of government legislators… Home-owners are still beleaguered and consumers are still facing hugely inflated prices and have less purchasing means, so the financial services and consumer discretionary-spending companies will (ultimately prove to) lag.”

In the US market sectors yesterday, all sectors except Basic Materials (flat) were solidly higher: the Financials (XLF +7.9%) did not recover as much as the prior day’s loss, but the rally is now in place with the Intervention of the Treasury Secretary, Fed chairman and SEC Chairman. The legislators of the US government have bought their plan hook, line and sinker.

The winners in the XLF were the Banks ($BKX +13.8%), Broker-Dealers ($XBD +8.2%), REITS ($DJR +11.3%) and Insurance ($INSR +7.9%).

Among the Cara 100, there were some losers on a day when the broad market soared: GS (-5.7%) was the worst, undoubtedly because of internal problems. The leading winners were DB (+19.1%), VIP (+18.6%), CHA and CHL (+17.2%), MBT (+13.7%), TTM (+12.0%), IBN (+11.8%) and IBN (+11.2%), PTR (+11.0%), BC (+10.8%) and WBK (+10.5%). Of these, only BC is a US company. The rest are Russian, Chinese, Indian and Brazilian, plus the Aussie and German banks.

The Bond market has reached a high, and traders are considering selling because all this money printing will cause yields to soar, bringing down prices. Yields rallied a bit yesterday. The 30-year US Treasury Bond ($USB) lost a bit to 122.80.

Gold prices soared in the morning to over 920 and then sank, closing up +$46.50 at 897.00, on its way south under duress from central banks. Crude Oil ($WTIC) gained +0.58/bbl to 97.54. The $USD dropped a bit (-0.24% to 78.00 yesterday, but is rallying hard this morning.

In the futures market, presently, reminding you this is Quadruple Witching Day, are extremely volatile. Again today, prices are moving so fast, it would be silly for me to quote them.

The precious metals had a big rally after 8:00am ET today and then fell hard, as central banks are fighting these rallies.

The DJIA futures are presently up +391 to 11373. Crude Oil is at 99.03. The $USD at 0.7864 and Euro at 1.4255.

Wait one minute; these prices will change, materially. This afternoon ought to be wild.


Comments & Outlook

The problems with Humungous Bank & Broker are not over. Treasury Secretary Paulson has temporarily bailed them out of a crisis. He did not fix there problems. I recommend that traders who want to seize this opportunity to continuously raise stops. But don’t do it with Stop orders to your broker because HB&B will trade off that information and screw you. Each day, write down a new higher stop price and then submit a market order at the appropriate time to take you out of the Financials. The financial system is broken, so why support the organizations and people who broke it?

The commodity markets today are being purposefully depressed by the Interventionists. Their prices will lag the soaring Financials, for now. After active traders have taken maximum advantage of the profit opportunity in Financials, they ought to swing back into the Energy (XLE), Basic Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), Technology (XLK and SMH) and Utilities (XLU). Consumer Staples (XLP) also ought to be ok. These are the sectors that will most likely sustain the new Bull; the Financials (XLF), which will soar for now, and to a lesser extent the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sectors will have to re-test the lows. I would also buy the Western Canada junior oils and the Goldminers.

One final comment: Talking Heads for vested interests are working overtime today. Financial Entertainment TV is giving them all a soap box because that’s what mass media does today, ie, cater to those who pay the most for the privilege of addressing the masses. The media has been bought – it’s not independent – and the faces you are watching as guests today are the people who are the pointy head of the pin of your enemy. These are the same people, from bankers to fund managers to professors, who were urging you to buy their stocks all the way down from the top in the 3rd Quarter of 2007. These people are flush; so now they are telling to boost their stocks all the way back. This process is the biggest transference of wealth in world history. It makes me sick that Mom & Pop got fleeced again. The only consolation I have is that many of you listened to me and went to cash early and are now getting back into the market’s new Bull.

Unlike Henry Paulson, who looks like yesterday’s coffee grinds, I slept in until after 7:00am this morning.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 12: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU

Table 12: US Utilities


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 12: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 19, 2008 09:06:22 AM | Category: Daily Report