« Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Fri., Sept. 19, 2008, 7:48am ET | Main | Open Letter to the SEC from E.O.Barlow »
September 19, 2008
Daily Report for Fri, Sep 19, 2008
Markets Re-cap
“A reversal of fortunes is likely,” which I wrote yesterday morning, turned out to be the understatement of the year.
Observing the market’s turn on Wednesday afternoon, which I discussed yesterday morning, I wrote: “Immediately, there was a turn in the equity market indexes around the world, and prices started to rally. Some of this is short covering, and some of it will be the use of Other People’s Money by the financial services companies to pump the shares of stocks in their own industry; but much of the volume will be from traders who were cognizant that the equity market had been heavily sold down to value finding levels. So, today, there will be what may likely be the start of a market rally that lasts for as long as it takes the financial services industry to sort out their issues with write-downs and diminished reserves.”
I said the bell had rung.
Yesterday, there were soaring share prices all over the world. This morning the prices are continuing to soar.
At the close yesterday, the DJIA (+410.03 +3.86% to 11019.69), S&P 500 (+50.12 +4.33% to 1206.51), and NASDAQ Composite (+100.25 +4.78% to 2199.10) had what was a record shattering rally. The Toronto Composite (+1.57% to 12064.57) and the Venture Board (+0.56% to 1477.88) were also up, but not as much as the commodity markets are now under control of the US monetary authorities and the banks they are supporting.
Earlier in the day the Asia-Pacific and European markets also soared with the biggest rally for many years: Australia All-Ords (+4.06% to 4840.7), Shanghai Composite (+9.46% to 2075.1), Hong Kong Hang Seng (+9.61% to 19327.7), India Sensex 30 (+5.46% to 14042.3), and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+3.76% to 11920.9).
In Europe today, at 8:30am, the French CAC was up +7.6%, German DAX up +5.46% and UK FTSE up +8.3%. The Financials are leading the central bank inspired rally.
I continue to believe the equity market will split the financials from the non-financials, where the non-financials started a new Bull market on Wednesday afternoon, but where the financial stocks will only rally for a time before falling again to test the sector bottom. In time, the financial sector will likely be seen to have missed the first leg of this new Bull “because traders know: (i) the balance sheet liabilities of banks are understated and their assets over-stated, and (ii) the central banks that have been coordinating this emergency lending must recover those funds to then restore the health of their own banks and the confidence of government legislators… Home-owners are still beleaguered and consumers are still facing hugely inflated prices and have less purchasing means, so the financial services and consumer discretionary-spending companies will (ultimately prove to) lag.”
In the US market sectors yesterday, all sectors except Basic Materials (flat) were solidly higher: the Financials (XLF +7.9%) did not recover as much as the prior day’s loss, but the rally is now in place with the Intervention of the Treasury Secretary, Fed chairman and SEC Chairman. The legislators of the US government have bought their plan hook, line and sinker.
The winners in the XLF were the Banks ($BKX +13.8%), Broker-Dealers ($XBD +8.2%), REITS ($DJR +11.3%) and Insurance ($INSR +7.9%).
Among the Cara 100, there were some losers on a day when the broad market soared: GS (-5.7%) was the worst, undoubtedly because of internal problems. The leading winners were DB (+19.1%), VIP (+18.6%), CHA and CHL (+17.2%), MBT (+13.7%), TTM (+12.0%), IBN (+11.8%) and IBN (+11.2%), PTR (+11.0%), BC (+10.8%) and WBK (+10.5%). Of these, only BC is a US company. The rest are Russian, Chinese, Indian and Brazilian, plus the Aussie and German banks.
The Bond market has reached a high, and traders are considering selling because all this money printing will cause yields to soar, bringing down prices. Yields rallied a bit yesterday. The 30-year US Treasury Bond ($USB) lost a bit to 122.80.
Gold prices soared in the morning to over 920 and then sank, closing up +$46.50 at 897.00, on its way south under duress from central banks. Crude Oil ($WTIC) gained +0.58/bbl to 97.54. The $USD dropped a bit (-0.24% to 78.00 yesterday, but is rallying hard this morning.
In the futures market, presently, reminding you this is Quadruple Witching Day, are extremely volatile. Again today, prices are moving so fast, it would be silly for me to quote them.
The precious metals had a big rally after 8:00am ET today and then fell hard, as central banks are fighting these rallies.
The DJIA futures are presently up +391 to 11373. Crude Oil is at 99.03. The $USD at 0.7864 and Euro at 1.4255.
Wait one minute; these prices will change, materially. This afternoon ought to be wild.
Comments & Outlook
The problems with Humungous Bank & Broker are not over. Treasury Secretary Paulson has temporarily bailed them out of a crisis. He did not fix there problems. I recommend that traders who want to seize this opportunity to continuously raise stops. But don’t do it with Stop orders to your broker because HB&B will trade off that information and screw you. Each day, write down a new higher stop price and then submit a market order at the appropriate time to take you out of the Financials. The financial system is broken, so why support the organizations and people who broke it?
The commodity markets today are being purposefully depressed by the Interventionists. Their prices will lag the soaring Financials, for now. After active traders have taken maximum advantage of the profit opportunity in Financials, they ought to swing back into the Energy (XLE), Basic Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), Technology (XLK and SMH) and Utilities (XLU). Consumer Staples (XLP) also ought to be ok. These are the sectors that will most likely sustain the new Bull; the Financials (XLF), which will soar for now, and to a lesser extent the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sectors will have to re-test the lows. I would also buy the Western Canada junior oils and the Goldminers.
One final comment: Talking Heads for vested interests are working overtime today. Financial Entertainment TV is giving them all a soap box because that’s what mass media does today, ie, cater to those who pay the most for the privilege of addressing the masses. The media has been bought – it’s not independent – and the faces you are watching as guests today are the people who are the pointy head of the pin of your enemy. These are the same people, from bankers to fund managers to professors, who were urging you to buy their stocks all the way down from the top in the 3rd Quarter of 2007. These people are flush; so now they are telling to boost their stocks all the way back. This process is the biggest transference of wealth in world history. It makes me sick that Mom & Pop got fleeced again. The only consolation I have is that many of you listened to me and went to cash early and are now getting back into the market’s new Bull.
Unlike Henry Paulson, who looks like yesterday’s coffee grinds, I slept in until after 7:00am this morning.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 12: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Table 12: US Utilities
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on September 19, 2008 09:06:22 AM | Category: Daily Report








