How is this possible? SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT. Short Interest (Shares Short) 52,978,800
Total Shares Outstanding 150,000.
% of shares short = 675.04%.

http://tinyurl.com/5jj7gv

The SEC allows these types of criminal shenanigans. Who loaned 52,828,800 shares that do not exist to be shorted? At the current price of 33.22, that is equivalent to $1,754,972,736 in someones bank account. And that is just one ETF.

I checked the TED spread this morning. It is now 2.01 - a 49% increase over the weekend. That is huge and speaks to panic in the credit/bond markets.

You can keep an eye on it here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP%3AIND

Is there a place to put capital this morning to protect it? If ones capital has already been put into cash?

Sept Empire State Manufacturing Index Falls To -7.41
Font size: A | A | A
8:31 AM ET 9/15/08 | Dow Jones
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated more weakness in the New York Area factory sector in September.

The general business index fell about 10 points, to -7.41 from 2.77 in August. New orders improved to 4.38 last month, from -2.20 in August. The employment index stood at -4.60 in September, from -4.49. The prices received index, though still elevated, fell to 24.14 from 32.58.

The index was released Monday.

-By Kathleen Madigan, Dow Jones Newswires, 201-938-4425, kathleen.madigan@dowjones.com

Talk about crazy stuff happening this morning. Listen to the huge(for a currency market) move this morning for the Brazilian Real.

Brazil real sinks 2.2 pct on global market slump
Font size: A | A | A
8:35 AM ET 9/15/08 | Reuters

SAO PAULO, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Brazil's currency sank 2.2 percent in early trading on Monday as equity markets in Europe and Asia slumped and investors fled emerging markets following Lehman Brother's decision to file for bankruptcy protection.

The real BRBY weakened to 1.821 per U.S. dollar from Friday's close of 1.781, as concerns deepened about the health of the U.S. financial system.

Yield spreads of Brazil's government overseas bonds over comparable U.S. Treasuries, as measured by JPMorgan's EMBI+ index, widened sharply, reflecting an increase in investors' risk aversion toward Brazilian assets. The index 11EMJ showed the country's bond spread widened by 17 points to 285. (Reporting by Elzio Barreto; Editing by James Dalgleish)

Quent- i think cash will be OK...which is the "C" word most investors will be thinking about after losing Kaimu's version of the "C" word...right now, however, it doesn't look like we get the "C" word that rhymes with the first one...

David 'i can do it in my sleep' V- the lower of your sell limits on SKF was a pretty good guess, although currently shy of 129...

oil at 94/bbl...if 80-85 is the target range, could see it by end of week..

The crooks will just move to other companies and we will see this repeat over in 15 20 yrs. The devil is in most of us and who wouldn't take 30b take home and look the other way re average working class?

LEH was to report earnings this week. with their filing today, will they still have to do so?

Re: Preserving Capital

"Is there a place to put capital this morning to protect it? If ones capital has already been put into cash?"

Technically speaking, you would seek out an equity in a sector with great fundamentals in an oversold condition, with the caveat that this equity is not in any way exposed to collateralized debt obligations.

MER is up 29%, BAC takes a 15% hit-> putting a value of 22/sh on MER

LEH still getting bids at 0.29- reminds me of American Home Mortgage getting sub-$1 bids for days on its way to zero...

The rise in credit derivative swaps and puts on LEH must be phenomenal.

prieur's post is late...probably twice as long..

Does anyone have an opinion on SKF?

DJIA futes now down almost 400...

SKF has run pretty hard already. Question: who sponsors it? Are the leverage elements within safe?

vinod- so we see again the value of position size...;)

Bull Hunter

Today is the day for 50+ [QID]. Will you sell to day? If so at what price?

I have QID/TWM/SRS. If $RUT tests 650 and breaks it. I just hit lotto. :-)

Thanks for the persistent warnings Bill
You are the anti Paulson

LEH reported earnings last week.

S&P just downgraded BAC! - Bloomberg TV

2nd
I desrve this, I have worked hard

Kim,

Congratulations on being well positioned for the fall.

I'll be hanging on to my QID until Bill's Dow 10000 call comes to fruition.

Regards

Am I reading my screen correctly?

Dow -97 SP -14 NDQ -55

Those first two throw me. And the $ up $.54

Cara 100 Update:

New Coverage:

BBBY - Underperform @ Cowen & Co.
WFMI - Sell @ Pali Research
WHR - Outperform @ Cowen & Co.

nemo- the person inputting numbers didn't hear the "3" in front of the 97, and heard 14 instead of 40...they need to hire assistants who follow the market...;)

Moab,

are you following TRIN. Crazy I have never seen such a low TRIN value. TRIN started at 0,15 and is currently at 0,28. Does not fit with the expectation of a sell off.

I have a feeling smart money is buying this a.m.

Me, I'm cowering.

might an abnormally low TRIN simply indicate there aren't many advancing issues, but for the small number of advancing issues, there is massive volume going into them?

vinod:

sticking with the game plan and staying on the sidelines today..

if you're looking for buys, ESLR back on the watchlist...

What do you guys think of MO as a long term play?

Except for the news over the weekend, if you were to just look at the indexes, so far this is nothing out of the ordinary for this market over the last few months.

TRIN may be so low because many stocks opened very low and rose so that is considered advancing volume I guess.

This market is losing all sense of reality. Prices make no sense whatsoever - that is what the interventionists have wraught. Jail is not good enough for these people.

ABB - Near a 52wk low, I wonder if Bill already sold and where it's going from here.

federal maybe..but most county jails should do it...

2nd,

Prieur sent out an email regarding this weekend's post:
"""
This weekend my "daytime" job – executive chairman of Cape Town-based investment management firm, Plexus Asset Management – requires my undivided attention to put a very exciting deal to bed. The bad news for my readers is that time does not permit compiling an edition of "Words from the Wise" today.
"""
So I suppose he'll not be posting today.

OK, thanks...

n2s - I've got an eye on GG, going to get in under Bill's entry.

2nd, do you still have skin in CAF? I see China lowered interest rates and reserve requirements today, wondering what your current take is on CAF.

Kaimu - I think you invented a great new term in last night's post: "mouse-click-money" !!! - the opposite of gold coins that "clink" in your pocket ...

Kiron - thnx for the link to the TED spread.

Audio
Awards for CDO of the year? Monteray
Plus the people hurt - when you have time.
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?sched=1242

My worst nightmare is underway, it seems.

cyderman- no position in CAF right now...jason pointed out last week the lack of interest on cara china may indicate the bottom is near, and i think he's right...growth in china is not about to come to a standstill...the time will come to stop day trading and start investing-> planning to overweight china when that happens (still see nothing wrong with either a global or US recession- it's a normal part of life, and trying to pretend it's not happening or unnecessary doesn't help anyone- that really has been the problem, and maybe the boomer attitude of 'the rules no longer apply' [to aging, life expectancy, retirement, whatever] has contributed to Fed attempts at suspending reality)...

ESLR down 14% and falling. More than most solars because of confusion about outfall of LEH bankruptcy.

It's sickening.

I'm down over 50% on my entire portfolio in the last 2 weeks.

This is a catastrophe.

As soon as I sell the bottom will be in. The story of my life.

Yes, it's a pity party here this morning.

n2s- for some reason i had the impression you were generally short (homebuilders, financials)...if you're holding miners and solars, i certainly wouldn't be selling- that's an honest opinion from someone who will be all-out buying soon...

"We are the ones who deserve to come out of this crisis stronger and weathier."

Unfortunately, My chances of joining are slim, as I don't know which HB&B to buy (aside from perhaps GS), but I do know which is the weakest.

I still don't fully understand why the GSE's and how they've been managed are anything worthy of defending, I guess I'm missing the point other than the GSE's rescue is an HB&B rescue, which I don't support.

Some explanation would be helpful, my thick head is not tuned to the proper frequency.

[Bill Cara note: Is it too difficult to check the FDIC list of the weakest US banks and to transfer assets to the strongest? Re the GSE's, you are right: they are not worthy of defending. They are trading at pennies, which is against the rules of the NYSE. Previously they traded even though their accounting systems were so screwed up, they couldn't file quarterly financial reports, which again was against the rules of the NYSE. As I have said all along, the NYSE is not the friend of the People; it's in business to support HB&B. You knew all that, so why is your head so thick today. The market is what it is, and we must deal with it. At least, we can stop supporting the worst offenders. Regarding Goldman Sachs, unlike your comment, I have issued my concerns that something is amiss, and now financial writers and analysts are starting to look into it and some of those are in agreement with me. If you want to deal with a good broker, why not look to Interactive Brokers or Ameritrade? If you want to buy a bank, what's wrong with RBC (RY), which is Canada's Royal Bank, which is a Cara 100 company?]

Oh, and this is likely my last time commenting here. Which will probably be good news for some of you.

I'm a textbook example of what NOT to do with your investment dollars. And, despite the great information and advice from Bill and others, it has made an iota difference in my results.

It's simply too humiliating to continue. I'll probably keep reading.

Later all, I wish I could say that it's been fun.

[Bill Cara note:

If you are disappointed with the actions of the monetary authorities in the US, what does that have to do with your not wanting to participate in the Discourse? Are you disappointed with me, or the others here? Are you saying you are closing your mind to learning? Learning is an interactive process. People who participate in the Discourse are helping themselves as much as others. What's your point?]

GE down $2.23 today...

Man I wish I'd ditched that one last week.

Should I double-down today?

Any suggestions for other plays? The margin calls should be a big deal this week.

Something to look forward to--options expiration.

Friday is quadruple witching day!

CP- you could just wait until the weakest get taken out, then buy XLF or UYG...the ones who don't make it obviously will have been deleted from the mix...

2nd ... I am VERY long ESLR and getting completely crushed. Also, short RYL via puts, which is up 20% or so in a month.

Good luck to you.

P.S. This is REALLY my last comment. ;)

2nd - I agree on ESLR, getting in at or near a bottom here should prove quite beneficial since new emphasis on renewable energy might just push it through the roof.

Howdy all--

Family and friends are all okay from Ike, but homes and property are a different matter. But BP's true assets--the people I know and care for--all made it through without a scratch.

It looks like we traders are having our own financial "IKE", because the wind blows hard one way and then the other.

Fortunately, the last thing I did after I boarded up the house and loaded up the family was cover my shorts via Blackberry. I think Mr. Market is working his insanity on everyone and I just didn't want to be a part of it while I had bigger things to worry about.

But the good thing is the crazier Mr. Market gets, the better the opportunities for sane and patient traders. Let's keep our eyes out for each other and have a good week playing those that would play us.

Number2.

Suggest u read Elder's Trading for a Living and Come into my Trading Room.

If one position wipes u out, then obviously it was too large. 6-10% of ur portfolio MAX.

Bob Hoye's latest is a must read:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye091508.html

long TTWO at 16.29. Capitulation

wavesmash - I've got mine eye on DOW 10k, so there's going to be opportunity round the corner if that happens... IMO, we should wait for this, or a firm bottom, which I don't know how to identify.

n2son

Hang in there. You took a leave in abscence here back in Jan or Feb as I recall and came back just fine. Remember it's always darkest right before dawn.

Agree with 2nd on the miners and solar. Also thought you were short the XHB stocks.

Your son is safe @ TU and that's what really counts.

N2s, my eslr stopped out, along with znn thats an ouch as I had good entry price. I'm still uw on SRS, SWc and a few small positions, not good entry on most.
2nd ave thanks for posting. I put stops on everything last night and am a little down this am but cautiously optimistic.
As a member of densa, I am amazed theres not more gren in the pm's and gold
peace

numbers2on, I've quit several times over the years. Each time I come back, I learn something new and improve my trading. Hang in there.

n2s- the outcome of the trade is still within your control...if you sell now, i think it's a mistake...the upside in being overweight ESLR is, as kim put it earlier, you hit the lotto when it hits 18...i think it hits 18...

if you can, quarantine the entire trade in your mind and let it sit...relegate the losing position to the back of your mind and give it a chance to play out...

Don't give up numbers2son. This is the hardest market to trade in several generations. If you master this...

The intervention and volatility is mind numbing and extremely hard to trade. I've been trying to make money short for the last two years and it is much harder than it seems but the learning experience is invaluable, especially the risk management lessons that the market metes out, day after day.

Less than 300 points down? Yawn.

Time to buy calls on the broads.

Thanks to Bill and all the regular posters here for all I have learned over the past year, and for the advice to move most of my assets to cash. Learn tremendously from comments of posters. Making some short term trades, just tiptoing in the water.

Anyone know what is going on with GE? Down 5% on Friday, about 8% so far today. Reuters reports GE Capital spreads have widened significantly. How much risk is there with GE?

2nd - Yea, this HB&B thing is really hard to get a handle on. I was targeting UYG @$19 and it was working great but now not sure of the sanity of going there again. I could make some money if I could figure it out, truth is I gave up on it a couple of weeks ago.

Very tempting...hmmm

Ode to Wall Street Investment Banks
This poem has been running around in my head for the past week.
OZYMANDIAS
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shatter'd visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamp'd on these lifeless things,
The hand that mock'd them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains: round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away.[1]
Percy Bysshe Shelley (August 4, 1792 – July 8, 1822) Drowned while going for a swim in a hurricane in the Mediterranean.

BoA and Merrill CEO's on CNBC talking of the financial crisis as if it were an exogenous act of nature instead of a product of the greed and stupidity of them and their peers, and sounding as if they were valiant and brilliant technocrats.

Why isn't gold soaring? Am I stupid or is the world?

number2son
I just got done reading Vadym,s The Master Profit Plan. a great help for me in uderstanding my own trading. In the past I have been way under water on trades due to my not understanding that I am a trader and not an investor. Every trade for me must now have a stop. I enjoyed reading your all your posts.
rnick

Why is 10k the bottom. What about Dow 9K? Falling Knives

Gold is restrained at the best of times, its not a great market like oil to trade in. But with the collapse in the oil price, this creates a demand for dollars, which directly affects the gold price.

Suffice it to say that Paul Van Eeden may have called the fair value of the gold price correctly @$760.

The scenario I had been waiting for is the decline of the oil price and along with it the $CDN, which would make Canadian based gold mines very profitable.

Its been over a year now, and its basically unfolding as it should, but I feel that the investor crowd needs to be separated from its fascination with oil by market action.

CP- the best time to buy (IMO) is when you don't want to buy...when you're able to hit the buy button effortlessly, you're getting pulled in...when you're afraid to hit the buy button, someone else is getting pulled out...so the time to buy UYG will be when you're afraid to do it; doesn't sound like you're there yet...

Linda - GE - This is not a technical analysis by any means, but my feeling is GE is representative of everything that's wrong with this market is some way or another. I don't like them now, or will I ever again, probably. It was Immelt that woke me up to this when ne claimed three days before eanrings report that GE was doing great (I almost drank that kool-aid), then took a huge dive on report day.

GE is responsible to no one except their executives as long as Immelt is there IMO.

DXO at RSI 14.09 on 7 day.

No position

So...What's green on your watch lists? (excluding inverses, short ETFs, GLD etc.)

Me, I can't believe PNRA is up 4.8%. But it is what it is.

I really can't believe PZZA is up nicely, too. And their pies are awful.

BBT is up, too (.65%.)

(I mean up from prior close, not up from the open.)

Let's hear it: what's on your lists that is not rolling over, or indeed, is doing well this AM?

UAUA up 9.5%...what miller's losing with FRE/FNM he's making up with UAUA...

what UP? CALM

(it's really gotten out of hand when i start to hear my daughters friends, mostly Asian, start answering their cell phones with "What up?")

2nd - I've been afraid of UYG since the day I sold it at $22.61. I'm even more afraid of SKF... Imagine holding UYG when everything but GS goes belly up, and imagine holding SKF while UYG continues an upward trend.... Time to concentrate on quality...

On my sub sector list Home construction and transports are the only thing green.

Blackstone (BX) is up a couple percent - is all this financial disaster making a better environment for private equity to come in and buy some companies? Are they getting ready to benefit from an additional Fed rate cut as well? Or maybe just completely random.

Anyone with knowledge to shed?

UAUA - The winning side of the Miller straddle - How brilliant!

what is hard to believe is the DJIA 10 day ATR is 248 so while a 300 pt down move is large, it isn't even 2X the average daily move.

This selloff is pretty muted. Could it be because the FED will now be long equities and looking to protect its holdings?

I don't know why people still believe the FED and keep the market up. If real selling gets underway they would be overwhelmed.

Exited my position in SKF at break even. There's no point in fighting the Fed at this point as it certainly appears they'll stop at nothing to prop up this sector.

I think there's opportunity for the nimble, but sometimes it's also OK to just step aside and observe for awhile. I'll be sitting on my hands until the picture becomes clearer for me.

they're gonna carry out the newbie shorts from this morning.

Homebuilders up on low volume. A rollover day?

My confidence in a near term gold rally to 800/oz from here has subsided, sold remainder of DGP for now. Might get back in if gold falls back to support @ 765-ish.

Watch, now Bernanke will give a rate cut...

DTO - Here's a sure bet worthy of some powder...

re:Fatty.

yup, had a nice trade in AEM. Out of it and trailing stops on other PM trades.

Pres. Bush is on CNBC delivering a live speech, stating all is well and the financial markets are strong. Meanwhile, in the background, there really are sirens sounding! I think in literature, this is known as "foreshadowing".

I rode UAUA up some this morning

Above -200.

Hey. Crisis? What crisis?

EWW short closed. It's probably got room to run, but I'm taking profits before the market runs up and takes them away.

Of course, the puts jumped .15 as soon as my trade cleared. Thanks.

Looking to go long broads.

RDR - Bush -I think I'll call it front running. I heard a woman say the other day "The only Bush I trust is the one between my legs."

Fatty, if you believed Fed will cut rate tomorrow, why would you get out of gold today? I guess I missed some thing in your statement.

It's interesting that the EURUSD plunged .05 in the hours between midnight and market open (EST.)

Maybe the currencies knew today's equity selloff was not going to be as bad as h(y)(o)ped?

Linda-as to GE. GE is a huge financial company disguised as an industrial. They have a lot of exposure as lenders and people are getting a bit nervous about companies being honest about their loan quality. Remember when GMAC was such a fine company that GM didn't want to sell all of it? I regard the company GE as very risky, not risky to go out of business, but one that could very easily have a big ride down. Remember last year when this was only an $800 billion subprime market problem that was contained. Well the larger Alt-A mortgage issue is just starting to get people's attention.

Man....AIG looks awful! The amount of market cap lost over the last few days is breathtaking. Why was this company distributing a $0.22 dividend less than 2 weeks ago and now it is desperate for cash?

GE - or was it GMAC? - Had a special home improvement loan scheme targeted towards landscaping.

Merril Lynch. Gone. Bear Stearns. Gone. Lehman Brothers. Gone.

Wow.

am Bought PBR OCT 35 Puts @ 0.75, betting this and other oils have more to fall.

AIG hitting new lows as I write. Other insurers doing well today.

From the gallows humour dept.

From FX News:

10:25 AM FLASH: Harper says Canada economy is not in the same situation as that of the US.

10:52 AM FXNEWS: Bank of Canada injects $895 mln into market.

Looks like a duck.....

Whats the probability of a rate cut tomorrow. Will it be a surprise and will it end the usd rise. Lot of ifs there.

Wow, A huge Republican Sarabration! What are the plans for an encore?

What up, Homeskool?

TICK just hit -1000, which is rare. There are a lot of positive names though for some reason. Rate cut tomorrow?

WaMu failure will take this market apart, I would think.

11:34 AM Bank of Canada injections now total C1.89 B

That was fast.

Didn't we start off with overnight liquidity 'injections' way back when this was all 'contained?'

Bank of Canada injections now total C$1.89 billion
Monday, September 15, 2008 11:34:00 AM

OTTAWA, Sept 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada injected a total of C$1.885 billion ($1.76 billion) into markets on Monday to lower the overnight interest rate toward the central bank's target and improve liquidity.

The bank operates through Special Purchase and Resale Agreements, or SPRAs, buying securities with the agreement to sell them back in the next business day, effectively injecting money into markets.

($1=$1.07 Canadian)

Babybear, I was joking about (and should have been more specific) an emergency rate cut in my 10:56 AM post today, as that would make my sale of DGP ill-timed.

Honestly, I don't expect a rate cut @ their meeting tomorrow, but I expect statement wording to involve greater concern for growth than inflation, and/or some signal of the possibility of future rate cuts.

Consequently: either way, while I expect at least a small pop in GLD after the Fed statement, this morning's action in gold (specifically the 9:45 AM failure to break $778 resistance, and what I thought was the subsequent resumption of the morning's downtrend an hour later) was pessimistic enough for me to exit the position.

Now in hindsight, since I sold DGP, gold has turned upwards and appears as if it will retest 778. I should've waited to see if 772 would hold, which it did. Instead, I saw it heading downward and was very hasty to cut.

So probability of tomorrow's fed-induced gold price pop was outweighed by what I thought were current (granted, very short term), real negatives. I'm trying to become more sensitive to short term negatives, as I was burned in July for ignoring them.

Thinking about ESLR going forward, what will their funding needs be, and how will they get it?

actually, shorts should appreciate the fact they're taking the market up at this point...sets up a bigger decline over the next two days...(JMHO, and if Vad's reading, would be nice to get his opinion)...

Re: Rate Cuts, Headlines, et al

Consider the following this week:

Tuesday: GS Earnings Release and CPI Report- 0830
FOMC Meeting and 215PM Announcement
Thursday: Jobless Claims and Leading Indicators
Friday Quadruple Witching Hour

Fed Funds Rate Cut In The Cards?
a site called blue chip pick dot com has a calculator for chances of rate cuts/increases.

As per today's Fed Funds sept Contract, the implied rate is 1.83%.
With current rate at 2.00%, this shows a possible rate cut.
Using their calculator, the chances of a 25bp cut is 70%.

(Please someone check my math)

What's the point of cutting rates now? Possibly, to relieve short term congestion/seizing of credit and to calm the general populace until election day. There's too many headlines today that scream 'Crisis Deepens...., Meltdown....., Tectonic shift... Turmoil Sweeps through...'

What about inflation? I believe the expectationi of inflation is much lower than it was three months ago.

I suscribe to the idea of the government doing everything in its power to make the above happen.
Obviously, the long term pain is clear.

Banking index collapsing for the last 30 minutes, hitting low of the day.

AIG capitulation. RSI 7 day<10

So now I ask - What was the real factor driving oil to $145? This inquiring mind wants to know? Was it speculation, or a falling dollar? If a falling dollar, then what were the primary drivers, perhaps financial troubles? Currently financial troubles are worsening, is demand destruction now driving the energy bus?

Maybe Bill's $80 oil target is slightly conservative, as was his original $800 gold target?

(No reflection on Bill, sheesh, without him I'd probably be broke about now...)

Learner2 -

Stole my thunder. I echo exactly that GE is a financial masquerading as an industrial and is getting punished as such.

N2S -

Please don't give up. I started trading at about the worst time I can think of (early this year) and have gotten punished for making stupid mistakes and breaking rules I knew I shouldn't have (giving my trades room ala no stops and risking too much capital). I fully believe that under normal market environment, it wouldn't have been as detrimental. From it, I have been given an invaluable education and when conditions stabilize in the future, I know how to trade the hell out of it. Look at it that way. Come away from it stronger with remaining capital that you can put to good work when the time comes.

Best of luck to you and I hope to see you continuing to post!

Side note: I think it's actually no more than 2% you are supposed to risk on any given position, and a total of 6% of equity exposed in aggregate, open trades per Elder.

Fatty, thanks for the explanation.

Yesterday gold and silver went up nicely till around 9:00pm central time, then it was obvious someone started to sell off.

I am pretty much convinced that some government agencies or Fed is intervening commodity prices and exchange rates, at least today. I guess getting out of PM positions would be a safe bet.

Any thoughts on what is going on with UNG? Nat Gas futures are down, but someone is hitting the bids and ignoring the asks. UNG up 1.4%

nemo - The only hope for making alternative energy successful is government. Look forward to extension or supplementary tax credit bills. Big oil is too strong for a fledgling technology like solar. As alternatives emerge, the battle with oil will escalate. The war will be won or lost depending on government direction, because big oil is just too strong (maybe stronger than government?).

SNDK now - $14.96 -$0/73 Worth watching me thinks.
SNDK 9/12 – Buy Alert on Cara’s list, F9/12/8 DWN $0.70/-4.27%, no div, 26.70PE,
Indicators: 20/25/67 sell
Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

15.69 14.89 15.74 16.59

Question - anyone know why is OIL down today? Refineries are also punished, even though Ike did pushed up gasoline prices.

Tinfoil hat time:

Anyone notice that these big down days stop at about 300 points? Why the seemingly arbitrary number? Could that be someone's line in the sand to begin propping operations?

NGas futures on Nymex (unless you're a member), are 15 minutes delayed...so UNG may in fact reflect current pricing...

c3 - Oil is down cause 1. Mkts down, Ike's past, glbl economy going down.
Read Bills past posts.

what's going on with natgas? ike damage?

Re: Gold

Recently Bill mentioned watch the Euro for signs of a turnaround in gold. He even threw out a round number of 138 to keep an eye on for a turn. Last thurs. the euro hit a low of 138.11 and looks to have turned. RSI (7) daily is currently 40.45 (having crossed up above 30 last thurs.), RSI (7) weekly is 18.91, don’t know the monthly. In addition, last night the slow stochastic crossed up above 20. To me, it looks like the Euro has turned for now and this should be gold positive.

Pookster:

I agree, I'm just chiming in on the early commentary about getting back in to ESLR. I'm thinking going forward, funding will be tight and expensive for those who need it, which then brings you to the likelihood of equity dilution.

Re: Gold/Oil

In the gold vs. oil debate, I'm quite certain that the decline in oil prices vs. gold is catching a good number of people by surprise.

ALOHA !!

ON LOSSES
I am happy to report that my ECU shares are now worth more than FRE and FNM and LEH combined! What must those shareholders be feeling like today? I'll bet they would all give their left arm to own ESLR right now and only have a 50% loss!

ON GE
I will just say that GE CAPITAL was the last idiot our of the pool and landscape loan business in California. Remember those Californians were turning their homes into mini-Caesar's Palaces back when the real estate boom was at its zenith, so as home owners default on mortgages they are also defaulting on their poll and landscape loans as well and to add to the fire I am sure they are defaulting on credit cards and every other loan Americans can get their hands on! My father-in-law who had owned a company that wrote loans for pools and landscape in the San Diego,CA area went out of business two months ago because they could not find a bank that would loan money. What does that say about GE? In essence GE didn't know the Titanic was sinking until the water in their cabin was up to the porthole! HA!! And CEOs actually get bonuses for that?

Bill is right ... FNM and FRE and LEH and soon to be WM all have no business trading on the NYSE and they should all be forced onto the pinksheets! Obviously the US BANKS are a privileged group who care not one bit for shareholders or employees for that matter!

ON US PESO
As long as US treasuries are considered a "safe haven" then fools will rush there for "virtual safety"! So the USDX goes up because the US Peso is "safe"! GOLD goes up because it has a "safe haven" reputation. The Swiss Franc does also ... All those are up, but the USDX is not safe. If it were not for its World Reserve Currency status then the USDX would have gone the way of the Russian Ruble a long time ago! What we are seeing is all the global fiat central banks in an effort to make the World's Reserve Currency look like the fiat empire is still safe! IT IS NOT!! The US EMPIRE is crumbling and so is the FIAT EMPIRE and those who derive their power from those sources will not let it fall fast! At least not until they get off the TITANIC! These people at HB&B are the types that would let women and children go down with the ship along with OPM!

Blackjack,

In regard to MO as a long term hold:

First of all, my apologies to Bill Cara, who doesn't support tobacco companies. That's his prerogative and this is his website but I thought your question deserved a reply.

MO is very good to their shareholders. They continuously grow and raise their generous dividend. MO is the reason that I'm here, with money to invest. I bought a ton of MO in the $20's and $30's, held them for many years, collecting dividends and sold out in the $80's. I have nothing bad to say about them. They are a remarkably well managed company that knows how to survive in the most adverse conditions.

That said, I'd rather invest in PM. There is a lot more smoking going on and room for growth in other parts of the world. PM is a stock that I'll be seriously looking at when this bear market runs its course.

All IMHO.

Regards

Fatty - Au - I expect another huge bull trap.

The market is finding support at 1210 where it found support in the past two months - nothing abnormal about that. Manipulation likely is done via the futures market where it can get the best bang for the buck.

The selling in the banks was very impulsive the last hour and tick didn't get above -500 for more than a half hour. This selloff will have legs I think but it has to close below 1210 at some point to break support.

Ahh, the delay in future contract pricing. Now I see it. I am still curious about the jump.

Thanks for the response 2nd!

Nemo: ESLR will need around $400M sometime in the next say year. CFO says they will aim for asset backed lending for part of it. Listen to the recent conf call for detail.

2nd
brought some more ESLR also brought IBN and may get into CAF by end of day. also have open order for SNDK

bsi87- nice move on TTWO...

JohnE & Oil -

thanks for the reply. It's amazing that OIL didn't even bounce at $100.

moab - I like your insight.
But - Wouldn't 1210 be greatly affected by computer program trading rather than mostly maipulation?

Can somebody prove to me how trading equities is a zero-sum game? I've heard various statements to that effect.

"when you buy, you're saying the guy selling is an idiot," "for every winner there is a loser," "if you're making money, somebody is losing money," etc.

If I buy something low, obviously the person selling to me isn't always selling at a loss. The person who sold to him isn't always selling at a loss. The only exception is the trade of a new high or low price.

In the entire market, money is being created, destroyed, shifted between players. Would there be multiplier effects, too? It's not a closed system, so I can't see how the losses and gains *must* be spread amongst the players, and sum to zero.

Any help out there?

thx 2nd.

re: AIG. I was trying to get long 4.50 in an account I haven't used for awhile. Naturally I didn't get my order in.

re:TTWO
shooting for 22.50

Bill really helped my entry on sell offs, never could figure out exactly where capitulation was.

BH - While we're on the subject, is PM active in foreign markets? I thought they sold off their brand names in foreign markets. Or maybe that was RAI? My understanding is MO is poised, if that's an area of interest.

Please DYODD, my knowledge comes only from accidentally reading a couple of briefs and cannot be traced to anything but my dilapidated memory.

Refiners all got knocked lower today, but I can't tell if that's from lingering fears of Ike's damage, lower prices for oil, reduced demand for gasoline, or a combination of all three...

...holding off on any trades today. For the moment, I'm happy to be all cash...

I was long SKF last friday. friday night I said to myself, everybody knows the financials are doing the big change this weekend so how come SKF isn't way up on friday. I decided I had to be in a losing trade. Then it occured to me that if i thought it was a loser, then I was probably wrong and it would be a winner. Late last night, I read David's post on putting in orders early. As a late rising west coaster, I decided to do the same. When I got up this morning I had sold half my SKF at 130 and covered all my RTH at 94. Looks like they both happened in the premarket, so I've got a new system, the David plan. It also occured to me that having a plan, trading the plan, means placing orders means a-I have a plan, b-it's getting traded. Thanks for all your help.

Fatty - The market produces a price based upon value. Valuation is the product of markets. If you hold an equity and the value increases, then you profit, and vice-versa. A successful trader searches for and buys value which is underpriced.

Bill's book describes the process quite well.

ALOHA !!

Just a thought here ... If you are shorting indexes via ETFs or the old fashioned way just remember indexes like S&P 500 are built upon shifting sands. In other words they jettison the super losers and replace them with less losers to keep the value of the index as high as possible so the indexes never go down to zero!

The XLF(and US TAXPAYERS)is in trouble because there are no "less losers" in their sector!

Miadhach asks, "How is this possible? SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT. Short Interest (Shares Short) 52,978,800
Total Shares Outstanding 150,000.
% of shares short = 675.04%."

Smart Money answers:

"... Unlike the stock of corporations, ETF shares can be created by authorized participants, such as a market maker or specialist, to meet demand. When a company goes public, it issues a specific number of shares in its initial offering. Every time it wants to increase the shares outstanding, the company needs to file forms with the SEC and hold a formal secondary offering. Not so with ETFs. There's no limit on the number of ETF shares outstanding. And if demand increases, more shares can in theory be created immediately.
"As the fund adviser, we don't [issue additional ETF shares]. There's nothing the sponsor can do," says Steve Sachs, director of trading at Rydex Investments. "The structure around an ETF is that only authorized broker-dealers can create shares. It's all a function of the secondary market."
One drawback of creating additional ETF shares is they need to be issued in 50,000-share blocks. While this shouldn't pose a problem to institutional investors or hedge funds, for retail investors it could. If an investor wants to short 5,000 shares and a brokerage creates a new block, then that leaves the brokerage holding an open position of 45,000 shares. Most brokerages don't want to carry that load.
"The issue is there is an administrative cost that a brokerage incurs for securities lending," says Gary Gastineau, managing director of ETF Consultants, a consulting firm in Summit, N.J. "It doesn't make sense for them to undertake a securities lending transaction unless the total number of shares exceeds X or the total dollar amount exceeds Y. When it doesn't, the stock loan department will tell the broker that it's hard to borrow. The truth of the matter is, it's not hard to borrow but costly to borrow relative to the amount the firm will make on it."
Gastineau says brokers aren't obligated to lose money or perform transactions that don't make economic sense. And while there may be a few cases where it's legitimately hard to borrow, Gastineau says that if an investor wants to borrow hard enough and is willing to take a large enough position, the broker will be accommodative. ..."
http://www.smartmoney.com/etf-focus/index.cfm?story=20060426&pgnum=2
via http://nakedshorts.typepad.com/nakedshorts/2006/05/sure_you_can_sh.html

wahoo!! killer whale! I love hearing success stories!!! Congrats!

I am not sure how the computerized trading works but I believe it works better on lower volatility/volume markets where the computers can have more impact. In a volatile, emotional market they may get overwhelmed by impulse.

Support has to be eaten through like a dog through a bone. Bulls are hanging their hats on a double bottom here. Every sector has rolled over since August except financials and consumer discretionary.

charlie- LOL...so you're replacing the layaway plan with the sleep-in plan...

Kaimu - Thanks!

kaimu - Hey, I like that logic! Can we extrapolate the inverse from that and call it an indicator?

moab - Thanks, your post made sense to me.

Regional banks -

The regional banks have held up rather well in the last week, given all the drama in financial sector. Are they really immune? Your thoughts?

CP,

From the PM website:

"Philip Morris International (PMI) is the leading international tobacco company, with products sold in over 160 countries. In 2007, we held an estimated 15.6% share of the international cigarette market outside of the USA and reported revenues net of excise taxes of $22.8 billion and operating income of $8.9 billion.

We own 7 of the top 15 brands in the world and have a strong mix of international and local products that seek to appeal to a wide array of adult smokers."

Regards

I can't believe I made $600+ on one AIG put.

kaimu's one smart SOB, I hope to shake your hand someday!!!

re:SSRI. Accumulation zone. RSI 7 day 25.66.

Seeing divergence in MACD. full disclosure: long at 15.65

I think the market should plummet more. But it does not. And gold has not jump much.

Something has been controlled.

Regional Banks -

I have been trying to figure out what is going on. It seems a lot of hedge funds were short financials / long commodities and had to reverse these trades from July 15th. If you look at which banks are holding up best it is the worst ones. Once the hedges are done covering these should, hopefully, test the lows. They are sort of levitating now. Anyone have another opinion, please share.

ZION had a monster reversal today, from up 2.50 to now down .80.

FA- interesting question...i don't know the answer, but i'll take a shot at it-> if there are only two traders (Jack and you) trading the one existing share of ESLR offered by Jill, then conceivably all three of you could make money: Jack buys the initial offering at 5, sells it to you at 10, and the stock eventually goes to 20 due to profits that justify that price...at that point, Jill takes the company private and retires that one share (and goes on making money on solar panels)...who's lost money?

Pookster- make sure he's washed his hand if he had been chasing those pigs...

I could kick myself for selling DTO a week ago, what a stupid move...

apollo - I agree. This market is levitating - gotta stay within that 300 point range?

ALOHA!!

WOW ... based on the markets BAC is getting punished for taking MER on. Look at that share price crumble! OKAY BAC ... PERFORM!!!

I liken BAC to ... oops ... I just had a brain fart ... I could not remember the American swimmers name who won all the gold medals at the Beijing Olympics so I had to ask my "sport nut" employee ... Okay ... Michael Phelps!

The BAC situation is like asking Michael Phelps to compete with two anchors tied to his feet. One, CFC, is tied to his left foot and the other, MER, is tied to his right foot! Now how many gold medals will BAC win?

thanks for the insights on GE. ...A stock that is so "loved" but has performed so poorly for the past eight years. Could be some real earnings misses coming up, and looks like the stock might see levels I never imagined. Husband is a long term employee, sold most of our GE 401k stock last summer--wish I would have sold it all!

nemo - Considering what kaimu's done for us here, I'd kiss his pig on the ass in trade for the opportunity to shake his hand.

Hey, where were you when I sold DTO and why didn't you yell at me. I'm still thinking of when you questioned my SKF folly... You need to speak up more often.

ALOHA !!

I have had four bulletins come by my screen on IB saying some market is not trading. Usually within a few minutes another bulletin comes on and says it trading again, but not today! What's up? Anyone else getting trading bulletins?

Thanks, CP. "If you hold an equity and the value increases.."

I guess I'm unclear on how the details of that can be ignored. Namely, who holds what when, and for how long. If it's a closed system & there are always X dollars in the game, then yes, I can see how the details can ignored, and it's zero-sum.

But I would think (the stock market at least) is an open system, and I can see how there could be more dollars won than lost, if more money flows into the market. At any rate... eventually I'll pick up books about this...

CP

get ready to buy some DXO.

kaimu- you're asking the wrong question...the right question is how will BAC pull it off? with a handicap like CFC/MER the bidders will want better odds, and they'll get it, so the stock should outperform when the stock recovers...or the Fed could just attach magnets to the finish line and win on the ultimate bail-out...

I think there was a quid pro quo: BAC got the ability to use depositor's money for investment banking in return for saving Merrill.

I hope everyone sees what is going on here as it will fan the flames of the gold bull: separated since 1933 investment and deposit banking are being allowed to merge, even though it is still illegal. This was one of the causes of the bank runs of 1930's. Bill is right - if Paulson plays this wrong he is looking at some serious jailtime as the politicians look for scapegoats, even though they were complacent in the fraud.

Pookster: My head hasn't been really in the game. Nephew's been real sick. Anyway...I'm not sure I would have played DTO any other way this weekend. I'm just not that big a gambler given what Ike could have done. Too much variability, not to mention all the pro's get in on Sunday.

What I see today is a market no different than it's been for a few months now the big monkey wrench is expirations this week. Now, I kick my own but for not jumping on UAUA this morning considering what we knew about Ike yesterday.

Mmmmmh...this week could very well be a tell on the position of the hedgefunds. If we don't get any assive sell-offs due to liquidation, maybe there's a lot of dry powder there too, and the downside becomes less risky.

Just some general comments...

A lot of people I know have portfolios in the tank. Maybe we are close to capitulation after all. A lot of despair going on.

I know he's an investor, not a trader, but in general I think Warren Buffett's philosophy of when your stocks fall, do nothing is really sound advice (of course, if you have a sick bank/brokerage stock maybe it's time to move to the better rated ones). However, solar stocks should have a good future, such as FSLR & CSIQ, so why not hold on for now number2son?

GE just broke $25.53 Spt
25.21 -1.54 -5.76%

I think the job market in US is very important now. If it deteriorates, I don't see how the economy will grow.

Last week there was a link [sorry..can't find it]posted here to the WSJ I believe, that said GS earnings will come in a lot worst than what is expected. Any thoughts on how this will play out if true. Will it cause the market to take an even deeper plunge downwards?

bsi87 - DXO - Yep, FRO was my DXO and was withering on the vine cause I jumped in too early (don't ask me why, I too suffer from brain malfunction). At this point I'll bet Bill's $80 target is somewhat conservative, we'll see... DXO looks better even if FRO can puke another divvy.

Kaimu, good one, you made me laugh. I think you are right. I just watch the BAC CEO justify the price paid. They needed to act soon to seize the opportunity before somebody else took it. Unbelievable, how did this person become CEO.

QT - GS - I vote market down on bad earnings.

trin at -896

GS and MS down 12%.

Good morning! While I was having breakfast I noticed that 1/2 of my SKF has reached my initial purchase price of $126.50, so I decided to sell it. The FOMC announcement is tomorrow, and with oil price down so much, they will most likely make a statement that a rate cut is becoming much more probable, which should boost the financials.

Also, my buy limit order for WGW was triggered at $1.2 and for ESLR at $5.2.

ALOHA !!

2nd ... So how can two major weights on BAC bottom line cause them to outperform? Unless I miss something BAC owns CFC and MER and all their future baggage which I term "anchors"! Has the definition of "outperform" changed?

This BAC thing reminds me of Barrick who was buying up the exploding hedge books of the major producers like Placer Dome(Doom)! Had Barrick never had bought Placer Dome it would have went the way of Sons Of Gwalia!

I believe the market is saying they have no faith in the BAC/MER buyout! Look what BAC used to buy MER with! Its own stock ... that shows how little BAC management cares about BAC shareholders ... BAC management cares more about the US FED ... the banking sector's savior of last resort!

By the way, Glass-Stegall was reversed in 1999 under Clinton and Greenspan's watch, so there is no protection from investment banks! That's the US Bank anchor that's making the XLF look like an inverse TSX!

It just keeps getting better. I think I'm going to start keeping my money under my mattrress.

From
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com

Banks Can Now Use Deposits to Fund Investment Banking Operations?

Reader Michael M called our attention to this statement in a Financial Times article:

"The Fed also suspended rules that prohibit banks from using deposits to fund their investment banking subsidiaries."

Was this the quid pro quo for Band of America buying Merrill? If so, the repercussions extend beyond BofA. This is a time when the federal authorities need to be vigilant, not lax about banks taking risk with depostors' funds.

Note than many banking experts, post the S&L crisis and now, recommend the reverse, "narrow banking", which requires banks to invest depositors' funds only in the very safest assets. This is the exact opposite of the sort of regulatory measures needed to improve the health of the banking system. Expediency trumps soundness.

vinod- IBN/ESLR/TTM/CAF/SNDK all look good for a LT trade...just betting on slightly better entries later in the week...

GM Trading at $12.22 a share with
earnings -103, bv -100
Who would have thought?

Countrywide - I see that slogan in my minds eye with John McCain standing in front of it. I wonder where that subliminal message came from.

will SKF reach this am high? or is it done? will things now seem to be fixed in the financial markets? tongue in cheek lol
ps kaimu, IB says BAT market back up

thanks for your input, 2nd.

kicking myself for selling DGP too early. was busy, so i couldn't keep an eye on the charts & missed the pop over 778 on volume. upward move appears to be intact?

if it takes out the overnight highs of 785, that would be significant, eh?

"chinese water torture" bear market.

so has Gene Inger described it, I kinda like that - a managed decline, so nobody panics.

"salami market" he has also called it - they take one slice of your salami at a time, until they finally have the whole salami.

David- "While I was having breakfast I noticed that 1/2 of my SKF has reached my initial purchase price of $126.50, so I decided to sell it."

so the other half was still trying to get there? ;) just kidding...

It looks like a long way before capitulation to me.I think there needs to be a large oversea's bank bite the dust to create a little panic. Basically range bound trading between march highs and july lows. Goldman sacs will report an inline 1/4 with there creative accounting. I would never bet against them since they are the 'house". Will they ever take a write down?

ALOHA!!

David ... I agree ... If I didn't know better I would say the stage is being set for a US FED rate cut!

This would be the last chance to save the financials and the real estate and DOW and GOP before the elections since the next FOMC meeting isn't until just before voters are voting! But of course the US FED could always keep rates where they are and then that would tank commodities and rally the USDX further and then a week or so later announce an "emergency" rate cut!

This is why the US FED need to be abolished. Who can plan long term with these guys running things? Look at the US markets and the USDX and the US DEBT ... Its in shambles. This is the best the US FED can do? Jeez, what does it take to get fired? A US Peso at ZERO ...

2nd - Homey, I think you made a wise decision to stay away today... Wells looks like the smartest cookie in that jar to me.

ALOHA !!

And now CBOE is trading again!

Chickenpookie - Remember BCC (I think that was the name) - And one of the gold plated politicians even sat on the board, till the truth came out. I lost a little money on that one.

ESLR- picking some up at 4.89...

XLF just broke down to new lows for the day, everything else should follow in short order.

watch those trannies! suspect! (no position)

Even XLY - consumer discretionary - my intraday stuff says this it finally may drop off here! Jan ITM puts in place since a while back.

CP
DXO 7 day RSI is sitting at 14. FRO is at 32. ]

50 DEMA for DXO is 19, FRO 54.

More upside for DXO but neither has shown a tradeable bottom.

CCJ approaching support back to 2005

ALOHA !!

Si02 ... I love watching all these banks eat each other!! It's like watching bank CEOs bob for apples with razor blades in them! HA!!

$indu:$vix is now at same levels as July 15.

Oh, now I remember, the slogan was Countryfirst, not Countrywide... Sorry, my mistake!!!

re:$indu.

MACD NOT diverging. Hmmm.

ESLR

Showed up Sept 12 on Triple Bottom Alerts screen....

http://tinyurl.com/5abnez

What's a good short-term suggested exit point if we enter today?

Hot buttered groat clusters!!! - Heavy on the 30 weight...

CP- LOL...Mozilo could have stood in front of a CFC banner that read 'the customer is always right' and been totally honest-> i don't think the company ever met a loan application it didn't like...

Is there something unusual regarding the volume on SKF since 1:50pm?

BX still in green territory today - will be keeping my eyes on this one for the remainder of the week for possible follow through.

Absolutely astounding the low level of the trin the past few days. Yes the VIX breached 30 but a few old timers can remember reading north of 60. Outside of some financials, where is the capitulation or washout? With the potential catastrophic risks surrounding this market you would think the fear factor would be off the charts. All long bets should be hedged, return of capital much more than return on capital. Could be chaotic if 1200 is broken this afternoon. Did someone mention a full moon today and Mercury retrograde around the corner?

stopped out of SSRI for 3.4% gain

Summary of today's events so far by John Murphy

A combination of unprecented weekend financial events have put global stocks under heavy pressure. Lehman filing for bankruptcy, Merrill being sold to Bank of America, and AIG scrambling to stay afloat have created a financial storm in early trading. Bonds are the only asset class rallying as stocks selloff. Financials are the day's weakest sector. The XLF slipping back below its 50-day average today. Most of that selling is in brokerage stocks. The Broker/Dealer Index (XBD) falling to a two-month low. All market sectors are in the red. The two holding up better than the rest are consumer staples and healthcare which are defensive sectors. Energy shares are also falling harder than most as energy prices fall sharply. With the exception of gold, most other commodities are also in the red. The dollar is trading mixed. It's up against the Euro but down against the yen.

SKF, XLF -

If you look at the chart, SKF/XLF is not at the level around 7/15. The chart hardly look as if Financial is bottoming or capitulating. Your thoughts?

ALOHA !!

ON REDEMPTION
Last week I mentioned FRO had enormous debt. Who owns that debt ... find that out! What happens to FRO if their debt cannot be renewed at favorable terms? What happens if FRO debt holders are forced to cash in?

A word comes to mind ... REDEMPTION ...

A lot of mutual funds, pension funds and hedge funds are having to sell because people are moving to cash(some gold)and are afraid of the markets. Rightfully so ... This is called "redemptions"!

One such that comes to mind is RAB CAPITAL. It is UK based and run by a French CEO(I forget his name)and they had some $80mil pounds in Northern Rock. When that debacle hit investors left RAB so RAB had to liquidate holdings to make the redemptions good. Well, RAB was also very heavily invested in the TSX juniors, so they liquidated their junior holdings. Their latest idea is to "freeze redemptions" ... PLEASE-E-E ... what will happen once the "freeze" is lifted? DUH??? Would you want to stay in a fund that freezes your funds as a solution? Now RAB is facing bankruptcy ... The redemptions got them!

I got the inside info on the RAB and TSX juniors connection from a CEO I know ... I doubt that gets mentioned in the press unless the TSX suddenly rallied to 2003 highs!

READ ON:
RAB Capital Proposes Lock-Down to Avoid Liquidation
September 10, 2008, 7:16 am

RAB Capital, which recently removed its chief executive from his post, announced Wednesday that it wanted to freeze redemptions in an effort to restructure its flagship hedge fund, which has plunged in value by nearly half this year, with a 22 percent drop in August alone.

Under the proposal, the British hedge fund is offering investors in the fund lower fees in return for agreeing not to withdraw their money for until Oct. 2011. RAB warned, however, that if the proposal was not agreeable to investors, it may have to liquidate.

Ooops forgot this [add to my last post]

SENTIMENT GAUGES SOAR... A week ago, I warned that the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index and the CBOE Options Put/Call Ratio (CPC) were too low to support a market rally and looked more bearish than bullish. The good news is that both measures are jumping sharply today as stocks fall. The CPC jumping 52% to the highest level in eight months. The good news is that the CPC is nearing a level near 1.50 where market bottoms have occurred in the past. My advice is to sit tight. There's little anyone can do at this point anyway. It's too late to sell and too soon to buy. The spike in the put/call ratio suggests that bearish sentiment is too high at the moment. That could lead to some type of climactic bottom in the near future. Keep in mind also that September (and early October) are very dangerous months for the market. October is also the month when significant bottoms often occur. Todays sharp selloff may be setting the stage for the type of washout that the market needs

possibility of a rate cut now officially in the (non-financial) headlines:

http://tinyurl.com/6bepoy

"Before the extraordinary events over the weekend, the prevailing wisdom was that the Fed would hold its key interest rate steady at 2 percent at its next meeting on Tuesday.

Although that still could happen, a growing number of economists and investors now believes there is a chance the Fed could reduce its rate by one-quarter or even a bolder one-half percentage point on Tuesday. Much hinges on the information the Fed gets about how the inner workings of the U.S. financial system are functioning and how Wall Street investors react to the crisis.

"It is a different ballgame. Anything can be expected and a rate cut is possible," said economist Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. Yamarone thinks the Fed on Tuesday will decide to stay the course and leave rates alone, fearing another cut would hurt the value of the U.S. dollar more. Hoffman, too, isn't convinced a rate cut will happen."

ok--bird in the hand. I closed out my SRS position that I took Friday. will try to re-enter lower

SLW and GG taking hits...

Banking index rallying hard since 2PM. Rate cut expectations/knowledge?

ALOHA !!

2nd ... Any way you care to look at all this it all comes down to a US TAXPAYER bailout. With a FED rate cut that is exactly what the banks get only they don;t have to send their BOSS ... Hankie Pankie to stand in front of the US CONGRESS and beg!

What do US Banks do? The US FED cuts rates to say 1.5% and the US Banks load up and take that cash and buy US Treasuries that are producing a 3% or 4% return. The US Banks pocket the difference. What are US Treasuries? Essentially that is US DEBT backed by US TAXPAYERS. So the spread that US Banks profit from is sponsored directly by the US TAXPAYERS and the US Banks get an extra boost of cash when they need it now more than anything!

To me the entire system is WELFARE!!

What major Fortune 500 company does not directly or indirectly receive revenues from the US government? Where does US government revenues come from? US TAXPAYERS who "voluntarily" fill out a 1040 form and send in half their income! The whole system is based on DEBT ... that's how FIAT thrives!

TBT keeps breaking down...

What is likely to happen if the fed lowers rates tomorrow? relief rally? Just a question.

UNG- back in the red...

FA- didn't expect to see TLT above 97 again this soon...if the Fed lowers by 0.50, then we're close to an entry into one-half of the TOG (IMO)...

2 Dec 7.5 SLW calls.

looks to me as though SLW either will hold & rally from around 8:ish, or will crash & burn.

have not studied the fundamentals, just the chart pattern. If it rallies I will, & maybe buy some. If not, oh well . . . .

Nibbled on some OEF calls.

I don't think there will be a rate cut tomorrow because it will look like the FED is in PANIC mode.

vinod- what about you? did you close out the OEX put?

PM prices went down fast since 2:00pm. Gold future and USD are pretty much unchanged before and after 2:00pm (gold is up at $786.3 too). Also there is more positive sentiment about rate cut tomorrow. So why do PM prices fall? I can’t figure out this one.

bobbyo- it might look worse if they hold the line tomorrow and then go to an 'emergency' (love that word) rate cut later in the month...

watch $nyse

From what I have seen these past 12 months is that 3:00-3:10PM seems to be the critical trading hour on days like today. It will either really plunge downwards or rally back to the high -100ish area. Just my gut feeling from the past year of trading this type of market.

2nd ave. True, but what about an "emergency" with all the other world banks cutting. Kaimu maybe on to somthing keeping USD alive.

...The Fed cannot afford to pull off many more emergency moves...people are going to start wondering why they keep showing up in the ER instead of seeing their primary MD for routine preventive health-care...

2nd
I sold 6 OEBUL at 9.10
still holding 10 OEBVL
will get out end of the day.
price did not came to my expectation
but may buy OEX call at end of the day
ESLR now I have 1500 may add some more by end of the day

Any opinions on MVG, Mag Silver. 12$ in May, 4$ today. no position i MVG. Just stopped out of SWC

qt,

the first 30 min vs the last hour is the big tell. Ma and Pa trade near the open, either selling into panic or buying euphoria. The last hour belongs to the big boys have to decide whether to take a position home

QT- armchair bet on a plunge...

bsi87.... I agree

2nd.... that sounds like a sure bet to me. You must work for GS undercover. ;-)

long tbt-

CSX just finally broke down.

BBT went red, finally.

PNRA off the outrageous +6% highs (+3.68%)

Why the hell is PZZA pushing against 52 week highs?

Cruel irony that I am short this lousy pie-pusher.

(Don't cry for me Argentina. I just picked up a few flyer puts for pocket change the other day. No biggie. I think the mistake I may have made is that the vol is non-existent in this name and the MM must be having fun today.)

It's funny that as the market headed for 350 down my OEF calls broke green. Strange. 'Flight to quality?'

-400 today anyone?

2nd

DJIA down -321 first 30 min
Naz down -48
Spx down -35

Wouldn't trade off this but the last hour would have exceed the above numbers to show the institutions/funds are selling as well.

My guess is the indices don't move much in 3PM hour. (and we see a strong sell off at the open tomorrow).

GLD up 2.36%, GDX down 3.17% - WTF?

QT- well you're right; what better cover than as an anonymous blogger on cara? slicker than john mackey...

GS not that far from capitulation. No position.

re: GS. trading below the BSC low.

jock- maybe they need to take out the short gold/long miners reversion-to-the-XAU:GLD mean players for true capitulation...can't see how we can be that far from the bottom...

FDIC deposit fund has $45B; WaMu had $143B in insured deposits (as of June 30th) - per today's FT

GS 5 year low is 85
so,it is still very high

2nd
Buy 1,000 Shares of ESLR
Details Filled at $4.84

2nd
look like I might be largest holder of ESLR

re:GS.

I've tried to calculate a stock price for various issues when the RSI 7 day

Buying VLO again at $31.50. Setting a sell limit order at $33.50.

re:ESLR.

Stopped out. Jez, shudda sold Friday for that 10% gain.

DDM @ 56.95, short term. I don't think we go under 11K / 1200 today. If we do, I exit... haha

I knew it...the big boys are unloading the $RUT.

The EMA13 & EMA34 crossed over confirming a change in the trend [downwards]. Lookout 650. Hold on Kim our Power Ball Lotto numbers are starting to come up.

re:GS

just have to wait for RSI 7 day <10, then evaluate.

I think margin calls and the like are probably the biggest driver of today. Take a look at the XAU graphed against the $DJIA. They match up almost too well. I can't (in the 5 minutes of research) find an index that is not correlating with the broad market indexes.

Looks like I was a little early exiting EWW puts. Rats. I did OK on the trade, but as we get close to Dow -400 EWW has really accelerated it's decline. Darnit!

And a little early into the OEF calls.

2nd,

May as well just send me the book.

Buy 200 Shares of VLO
Details Filled at $31.27

kaimu - FRO You know something I don't? I haven't found the unusual amount of debt you're referring to...? FRO Institutional ownership is 21%, insider & 5%SH is 35% where IBM is 60% institutional.... I recall your warning so double checked but didn't uncover danger... tell me if this just ain't so... I'll probably dump what's left cause I'm just holding a bag on my 1st buy anyway... but I want to know what you see that I don't!

Top 3:
JP MORGAN CHASE & COMPANY 1.95%
Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd 1.82%
STATE STREET CORP 1.31%

Jock, how much did Lehman have in insured deposits?

Mildly panicking. Have RRSP heavy in cash and Money Markets with Sunlife, but I don't understand the risks. Does anybody else? See below quote from the Globe:

"Sun Life Financial Inc. (TSX/NYSE: SLF) today announced that it holds $334 million par value of Lehman bond securities and approximately$15 million net value of Lehman derivative instruments."

MikeNYC

First off I really liked your short call on CMG (unfortunately I did not make any money on it) but I agreed they were a bit big for their market cap and not an idea that was universally appealing. (Try selling $7 burritos in Central or South America!)

I also like your short call on PNRA. This is an upscale and overpriced sandwich place and has expanded too rapidly. U.S. consumers are generally downsizing their purchases and $9 paninis and over priced baked goods are not such an easy sell. (BTW, having grown up in St. Louis where PNRA was originally known as St. Louis Bread Co, I can tell you personally that this chain has sadly been watered down over the years).

PZZA however might be a different story. I think the pizza biz is somewhat recession resistant in that many may actually be downsizing there entertainment budgets by replacing expensive trips to sit-down joints like Applebees/Chili to pizza night at home. I also really like that PZZA has expanded into China. I saw at least a few chains when I was in Beijing and a quick web search told me that they have at least 15 locations in Shanghai. If they can replicate the kind of success that YUM has had w/ Pizza Hut as far as the China market, it may be a tough short.

shark - Buy the book, read it, then give it to a kid on the street... Tell him to read it and give it to another kid.

I have a feeling this fight will be around longer than you or I...

Close under 1200?

I TOLD you guys this was gonna happen.

Margin liquidation continues to rule.

Why is GTU up 4x's price of gold?

nemo - Shut up!

nemo - That was an attempt at reverse psychology...

added @ S&P 1200

^Added to DDM^ @ S&P 1200

Posted by 2nd_ave: "so the other half was still trying to get there? ;) just kidding..."

I bought 1/2 at $126.5 and 1/2 at $127.50. I was too early selling the first half. I am really debating whether or not I should sell the second 1/2 at the close, given the huge move in SKF today and the fact that FOMC will probably say something good for the market tomorrow. What do you think?

David, you've been very helpful to my trading. I'm also long skf but at 111. I agree that the fomc will make positive spin/action. Personally, I'm staying in/but I'm floating well, I think I would get out at B/E whatever, today.

Just bought some more ESLR at $4.52, twice the number of shares I was buying previously. The recent drop in ESLR seems absurd, and an explanation that it happened because of hedge fund liquidation is the only reasonable one I can see. Hence, it should be back up once this whole mess is sorted out in a few weeks. "The pendulum always swings to the other side," as 2nd_ave says. :)

Allison,

The money market funds offered by SunLife are operated by external parties . I checked into our specific MM fund when the asset backed paper crisis hit Canada. My guess (without checking yet) is that your money market funds probably do not have Lehman exposure. You may have exposure to Lehman stock if you are invested in American equity funds. Most Canadian equity funds have exposure to Canadian banks, and it is not clear yet how much they will be affected.

Wow, the DJ drops below 11K to blow through some stops, then the S&P kisses 1200, then we pop... we'll see if this holds.

shark- to be honest, it's hard to respond knowing what n2s is going through...after three years of blogging here, i don't get it...i hope he hangs in there; if he gets taken out today, it's a life-altering event...

For a minute I thought SKF was being manipulated! LOL

hrly gold chart has an ihs that looks ready to pop any minute, 835ish would be the po.
I dont nessessarily trust these formations but sometimes when the f.a. is in the backdrop...

SanDisk Corp(SNDK)
14.44 -1.25
I like it but will wait more.

David,

I'm with you: Bought 1000 ESLR @ 5.01 this morning. about to double dip if it goes back below 4.40, thus having a full position.

With the words echoing in my head:

"Mr. Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent......"

gg come to me baby! Bill - are holding this bag still? (ha,ha!)

shouldn't say i don't get it..we all occasionally make decisions against our better judgment; in his case, ESLR spiked up several times in the past few months to his advantage and gave him decent gains- so the part i don't get is letting those gains get away from him...

Out of DDM @ 57.37. Lost $50 of profit on a crappy fill... That'll teach me to use market orders.

David- i would take those gains in SKF right now...

OK, just sold the remaining SKF shares at $129.31. I don't want to worry about the financials anymore. I have shorted them very successfully for the past two weeks, really cushioning the fallout in my miner stocks. Now let's look forward to life after tomorrow's FOMC announcement. :)

(which is in fact what i would be doing if i had a position...but you've done better than i have)...

Thanks for the advice, 2nd_ave! I sold my SKF without reading it, so I am proud of guessing your "correct" decision. :)

LOL

DOW -3.5% - I call that capitulation, but we've got more room to fall here, folks! Bombs away till 10K!

ESLR has some goofy share loan agreement with LEH that I don't fully understand. The perception related to that deal is surely playing into this drop.

Disclosure: very long ESLR basis 5 and some change.

Now, a million dollar question for somebody out there: does the close get juiced over 11K??

I'm guessing it does, but I'm not sticking my neck out. All cash overnight.

David - Last month I lost my GG profits on SKF, then made them up on UYG... ha,ha!!!

uncle uncle uncle

Love this line from Jeff Cooper: "Contrary for the sake of being contrary can mean getting into the tub with a toaster."

http://tinyurl.com/5jndab

Look for signs of strength and reversal on the oversold stocks. Don't get in front of the train before its stopped.

I guess this may shed some light on today's ESLR dump. Just crossed the wire:

ESLR COMMENTS ON LEHMAN BROTHER'S TRANSACTIONS
- Lehman Brothers Inc.was the lead underwriter for the sale of the $373.75M in Senior Notes. Net proceeds to the Company from the offering, including the cost of a capped call transaction, were approximately $325.8M, all of which the Company received at the closing. None of these funds are on deposit with Lehman or any of its subsidiaries.

Adding 1500 ESLR 4.54

for a mil, you'd have to get it down to the second decimal...11,001.87

they're selling into the close albeit at a slower rate. Guess a gap down open tomorrow to create a tradeable bottom. JMO.

-450, nothing a 1/2 pt cut can't fix...right?

Dig a hole deep enough and everyone will want to jump in!!! Never thought I'd See SUB $19 on UYG again...

Closed below 11k on the dow...

Hey, has Bush finished his speech yet? This things still in free-fall, we're gonna need a mean reverse drag shoot to slow this baby down...

shark - congrats on your UAUA! I hope you made some good dough...

I bought 200 wb and a 10 share teaser of bac. Prepared for more. Also own skf for balance. Ready for another double down on refiners/need a magnifying mirror for my cojones. If I could just get them to descend. lol

I have puts and holding long DGP. I would normally be buying at the end of day, but I will sit out another day to see what happens. The vix is over 31, so we might be close to a rally. I bunch of stocks look like they are out great prices, but I will wait.

here's to bill...you called it

gold gets up over 785...

Woooooooooooow what a ride ! ! !

Scottraders...question[???]

I have a powerfull Dell computer with Comcast cable internet service. My Elite screen today kept freezing up on me when trading took off both early today and at the end here. At times I had to close out and restart Elite. Is anyone else having this problem? It seems like either Comcast or Scottrade can't keep up.

Any feed back would be greatly appreciated. This has been an on going problem on days like today for me.

TBT 5 handle

QT, switch to IBRK, 100 shares, $1. Only when trading thousands, does it approach 4-5$

ESLR- posting the complete article

MARLBORO, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
On July 2, 2008, Evergreen Solar, Inc. (ESLR:$4.56,00$-1.74,00-27.62%) , a manufacturer of String Ribbon(TM) solar power products with its proprietary, low-cost wafer technology, completed its public offering of $373.75 million aggregate principal amount of 4% Senior Convertible Notes due 2013 (the "Senior Notes").
Lehman Brothers Inc. ("Lehman") was the lead underwriter for the sale of the Senior Notes. Net proceeds to the Company from the offering, including the cost of a capped call transaction, were approximately $325.8 million, all of which the Company received at the closing. None of these funds are on deposit with Lehman or any of its subsidiaries.
In connection with the Senior Notes offering, the Company entered into a capped call transaction with Lehman Brothers OTC Derivatives Inc., to reduce the ultimate dilution that would otherwise occur as a result of new common stock issuances upon conversion of the Senior Notes. The capped call transaction effectively increases the conversion price of the Senior Notes to $19.00 per share compared to the actual Senior Notes conversion price of $12.11 per share. To date, the Company has paid approximately $39.5 million for the capped call transaction. The Company is working with several investment banks to determine its best course of action to maintain the original intent of the capped call transaction.
Concurrent with the sale of the Senior Notes, the Company entered into a common stock lending agreement with Lehman Brothers International (Europe) ("Common Stock Borrower") pursuant to which the Company loaned 30.9 million shares of its common stock to the Common Stock Borrower. The shares must be returned to the Company no later than July 15, 2013, the maturity date of the Senior Notes. Until that time, the shares are considered to be issued and outstanding for corporate law purposes. However, until the Company has more information regarding the bankruptcy proceedings involving Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and can properly assess whether the Common Stock Borrower will be able to fulfill its obligation to return the borrowed shares in 2013, the Company will continue to consider the shares not outstanding for the purpose of computing and reporting per share results.
"The agreements in question are with affiliates of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. that have not filed for bankruptcy protection and are structured to provide Evergreen Solar (ESLR:$4.56,00$-1.74,00-27.62%) with as much legal protection as is customarily available in transactions such as these, said Michael El-Hillow, Chief Financial Officer. While the ultimate impact of the situation is expected to unfold over the next few months, we are availing ourselves of all legal remedies to protect our Company and its shareholders in this very fluid situation.
"The majority of our cash and short term investments are held by Silicon Valley Bank, our corporate commercial bank. We also have funds on deposit with two international commercial banks, continued El-Hillow. We have sufficient cash to complete our 160 MW Devens facility and support our other operating needs as we drive to profitability in 2009."
About Evergreen Solar, Inc. (ESLR:$4.56,00$-1.74,00-27.62%)
Evergreen Solar, Inc. (ESLR:$4.56,00$-1.74,00-27.62%) develops, manufactures and markets String Ribbon(TM) solar power products using its proprietary, low-cost wafer technology. The company's patented wafer manufacturing technology uses significantly less polysilicon than conventional processes. Evergreen Solar's (ESLR:$4.56,00$-1.74,00-27.62%) products provide reliable and environmentally clean electric power for residential and commercial applications globally. For more information about the company, please visit www.evergreensolar.com. Evergreen Solar(R) and String Ribbon(TM) are trademarks of Evergreen Solar, Inc. (ESLR:$4.56,00$-1.74,00-27.62%)
Conference Call Information
Evergreen Solar's (ESLR:$4.56,00$-1.74,00-27.62%) management will conduct a conference call today at 5:00 p.m. (ET). The conference call will be webcast live over the Internet and can be accessed by logging on to the "Investors" section of Evergreen Solar's (ESLR:$4.56,00$-1.74,00-27.62%) website, www.evergreensolar.com, prior to the event. The call also can be accessed by dialing 800-562-8369 or 913-312-1267 (International) prior to the start of the call. Please reference confirmation code 4449799.
For those unable to join the live conference call, a replay will be available from 8:00 p.m. (ET) on September 15, 2008 through 8:00 p.m. (ET) on September 22, 2008. The webcast also will be archived on the Company's website.
Safe Harbor Statement
This press release contains forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Evergreen Solar, Inc. (ESLR:$4.56,00$-1.74,00-27.62%) (the "company") cautions you that any statements contained in this press release that are not strictly historical statements constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those related to: the sufficiency of the company's cash to complete Devens, the ability to achieve profitability in 2009 and the possible resolution of any claims or defaults arising under the company's agreements with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and its affiliates. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements, including risks associated with the company's ability to successfully manufacture and sell its products; uncertainties related to government regulations, subsidies and incentives; risks from various economic factors such fluctuations in currency exchange rates given the company's primarily Euro-denominated sales contracts and other risks and uncertainties identified in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company disclaims any obligation to publicly update or revise any such statements to reflect any change in company expectations, or in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements may be based, or that may affect the likelihood that actual results will differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.
Source: Evergreen Solar, Inc. (ESLR:$4.56,00$-1.74,00-27.62%)

Another excerpt from today's ESLR statement:

"In connection with the Senior Notes offering, the Company entered into a capped call transaction with Lehman Brothers OTC Derivatives Inc., to reduce the ultimate dilution that would otherwise occur as a result of new common stock issuances upon conversion of the Senior Notes. The capped call transaction effectively increases the conversion price of the Senior Notes to $19.00 per share compared to the actual Senior Notes conversion price of $12.11 per share. To date, the Company has paid approximately $39.5 million for the capped call transaction. The Company is working with several investment banks to determine its best course of action to maintain the original intent of the capped call transaction."

So if Lehman will not be able to guarantee the "capped call transaction" -- not a big deal! That just means that ESLR will have a harder time rising from $12 to $19, as its stock can get diluted in this interval. If ESLR gets to $12, I'll be happy already. :)

Does anyone else see any potential problems for ESLR from the Lehman bankruptcy?

Regional Banks

Deterioration of auto loans, credit cards, homebuilder/developer loans, commercial real estate loans all add pressure to regional banks. Many are jiggered to not show up as bad loans.The banks ability to generate earnings is also impaired as the ability to loan contracts. As unemployment continues to rise, more problems will be revealed in this sector.

Anyone like TSO Tesoro at current price? Will refiners now benefit by lower crude prices?

BS: Thanks for the thoughts on PZZA. I only picked up a few way out of the money puts for lunch money. In fact, I know a couple of places here where a coupla pies and a beers would cost more than I put into these puts. So I'm OK.

BTW, this was strictly a chart play. It put in a double top and I thought it would continue to pull back with the market.

I'm a little more clear now. But their pizza still sucks only slightly less than Dominos.

David- note that ESLR uses Silicon Valley Bank (with headquarters in your city) for commercial banking...sometimes you can 'guess' a little about corporate culture based on knowing who works there...one of their directors was a girl who was a year ahead of me at Menlo-Atherton...she was on the student council, and to the degree one can 'know' what a person is like based on their coming-of-age years, i would say the bank has a sound management team...all of this may be entirely irrelevant, or it may be highly relevant...personally, it gives me a little more confidence ESLR had decent counsel when making its financing decisions...

..or at least had access to decent counsel...

astral25: I think the refiners will inevitably rise. It is just a matter of fact before their shares start getting upgraded by the analysts who factor in the abrupt recent fall in the oil prices. In addition, the gasoline shortages from the recent hurricanes might spike up the gasoline prices, which is the best combination for refiners. So the sell off in refiners today, in my opinion, is due only to fund liquidation. Their stocks cannot deviate too far from the fundamentals, which keep improving for all refiners (based on my limited understanding that this business is driven mostly by the spread between oil and gasoline prices).

Kaimu:

Had to take a drive, and I was thinking about your Michael Phelps analogy. Mmmmmmh. I think Merril and Countrywide are tied to the left and right of another bodypart...probably with piano wire.

ESLR is also, of course, hosting a webcast/conference call (numbers above) in about 25 minutes for anyone interested...

2nd
My problem is when I see little money and I get out and get out too soon
I try not to do that but hard to break the habbit
sold all oex put at 21.70 too early
brought 5 OEX call OEBJK at 18.30

vinod- you can ponder that on your way to the bank...the difference between 'too soon' and 'too late' can be as little as a few seconds...

FRO is a very interesting co. created by a very interesting Norwegian who has a lot of other more or less shipping & oil related companies on the Norwegian bourse.

He has a very good reputation and has _always_ done well by his shareholders, is my experience. (I do not hold any of his stuff now, did previously have a lot of various tanker stocks).

Caveat emptor, FRO is extremely leveraged, which is the way he likes to play it, he uses it himself as a cash generator. So far he has always pulled it off, despite lots of predictions through the years that he was about to botch things. In current macro-credit environment though, who can predict anything?

QT

Yes, I had the same problem with Scottrade Elite today and I am on DSL. Guess things were happening too fast for a while.

Pookster:

I was out. Come and say that too my face!!!
I'm really short, so you might have to kneel.
MMmmmh. Oooh, I could really make a crack off of that.

David:

I think ESLR might be partly affected by oil, as there was always a correlation.

Looking at the ESLR statement, it suggests to me that ESLR has lost the $39.5 million they payed to facilitate the capped call transaction since LEH can no longer guarantee this cap on equity dilution.

Next concern would be the wherabouts of the 30.9 million shares of ESLR that LEH borrowed and was supposed to repay in 2013 or whatever. What kind of language is involved in event of a default? Was LEH liquidating them under the assumption they have no responsibility to pay? That would be bad news bearskis.

I am of no legal authority so these observations are off the cuff.

-------------------------------

MikeNYC

You are definetly correct that PZZA does have some crappy pizza. Its necessary to douse it in the buttery sauce just to make it standable.

nemo: I wouldn't worry about oil affecting ESLR at this point, except for a very short term. They already have their contracts signed and mentioned that they have many more customers willing to buy their products than they can currently serve. Besides, I think oil will bottom soon, and as soon as the market senses that the global recession is behind us, oil will start rising and will make new highs, maybe as soon as in 2009. John Mauldin had a very interesting article about it, which showed that more and more countries are becoming net importers of oil instead of net exporters. This will have the effect of drammatically increasing the oil price.

if anyone is able to listen to the webcast, even a one sentence synopsis on Sundance's concerns would help...can't recall if ESLR trades AH, but that would be the ultimate interpretation of the call...

I'd much rather buy ESLR or any stock on a selloff in the first 30 minutes (assuming other indicator confirm the buy) than to buy in the last hour.

They floated the rumor today that Buffet is interested in AIG and no one bought it. The games are not working anymore and fear takes over from denial.

2nd
brought this
WGUAB 15 @6.50
ESLR 1000@4.84
CAF 100@26.37
UYG 200@17.80
OEBJK 5 @18.30
IBN 100@26.25
SNDK 100@ 14.83
VLO 200@ 31.37
SLW 200@ 8.40

I am listening to the ESLR webcast right now, and one thing jumped out to me immediately: ESLR has EURO denominated sales contracts, and so its share price could legitimately decline recently because EURO fell relative to USD.

do Mr president have a plan to save us from
Economic Terrorists from HB&B

Talk on skype this a.m. about possible overvaluation of BAC. This afternoon brings this article from WSJ.

WSJ online: Short Honeymoon for BofA and Merrill
By PETER EAVIS
September 15, 2008 3:04 p.m.

Shotgun marriages are rarely a success. And Bank of America's planned tie-up with Merrill Lynch could soon come under strain.

http://tinyurl.com/55k22f

I have started selling puts on stocks I wish to own. With the spike in volatility today, I figured it was a good day to sell puts. I wrote ATM puts on Cara 100 RIO and SNDK expiring Jan 2010. I was happy with the premium which averaged 25% of the stock price. I am shying away from HB&B because I don't trust them and from oils because like Bill, I think oil has another 10-15% to go on the downside.

My plan is to write more puts with shorter expirations as the correction progresses. Eventually, I will use the put income to purchase LEAPS on stocks I wish to own.

This is what I have learned from billcara.com.

vinod- LOL...you could make the case that having taken out the rest of the world, the economic hit men (of john perkins' fame) had no choice but to accept a bid from paulson to stay vested in their retirement plans...what else were they going to do?

2nd_

That's what I was thinking about the Merrill deal. I wonder how much was BOA had to buy them for self-interest, versus there being a business advantage.

Hey борода!

What's your prognostication for tomorrow :-)??

The ESLR webcase is over, and what I understood was that LEH has already sold the 31 million shares of ESLR into the market place. ESLR will probably not be able to recover those shares. If this were done orderly, then ESLR stock price should have been reduced by 25%, as they had 120 million shares outstanding at the end of the last quarter (as I understood). LEH probably dumped those shares on the market in the recent days/weeks, overwhelming the bids. So if LEH has already sold all these shares, then don't we have a unique buying opportunity for ESLR right now?

Just bought more ESLR after hours at $4.5

Just returned from feeding ducks (down to 21 now), it's really nice out there. They wouldn't stop chasing the dog (Hawaiian Chihuhua), a hilarious sight, poor dog...

David:

What will the charges be this quarter regarding that ~$40 Mil?

vinod - Mr. President will give economic terrorist your money, just like he fought to give religious terrorists your money. It's a war of religions fought from both sides with your money. Enjoying the show yet? What a crock of feces...

And look what the market thought about the good news for Merrill? Good opp this morning to sell high.

David- thanks...that should be good news to n2s...

nemo, I am not a financial expert and I don't know the intricacies of reporting quarterly earnings. What seems important to me is that ESLR would have lost these $40 mil in any case if its share price did not reach $12 in 2013. So the negative effect of losing these $40 mil will be felt only if the ESLR share price rises above $12.

It would be interesting to guess what will happen to ESLR stock if the company decides to enter into another capped call transaction in the next few weeks, which they said they would if they could buy a new protection for share dilution above $12 at $40 mil or lower. I would think that they WILL be able to buy such a protection at a lower price now, since they are trading at less than half the share price they had when they were buying this protection from LEH in July. This would be a statement to the world that ESLR still believes its share price is very likely to rise above $12 in the next few years, tripling from where they are now. So investors would start piling into ESLR at that point, right?

Illini

Thanks for your imput.

GG Institutional holders:
Institution Name Shs Held Shs Chg %Chg $Chg* %Out %Port Rpt Date
Fidelity Management & Research 52,530,988 5,137,000 10.8 588,838,656 7.4 0.4 06-30-08
RBC Asset Management, Inc. 24,589,364 277,598 1.1 193,210,016 3.5 2.0 06-30-08
Barclays Global Investors Canada Limited 18,134,024 2,059,917 12.8 214,376,256 2.5 3.0 06-30-08
Pyramis Global Advisors, LLC 17,276,324 997,300 6.1 166,835,712 2.4 1.7 06-30-08
Jarislowsky Fraser, Ltd. 16,940,524 -77,230 -0.5 122,706,024 2.4 2.7 06-30-08
BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. 15,818,530 1,030,400 7.0 157,301,488 2.2 1.7 06-30-08
Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec 11,416,207 -626,838 -5.2 60,418,284 1.6 5.2 06-30-08
Jones Heward Investment Counsel Inc. 11,336,087 2,504,353 28.4 181,157,440 1.6 4.1 06-30-08
CPP Investment Board 10,983,765 1,579,444 16.8 142,702,992 1.5 2.1 06-30-08
Harris Investment Management, Inc. 9,920,344 309,320 3.2 85,595,104 1.4 1.1 06-30-08
McLean Budden Ltd. 9,604,295 -219,605 -2.2 62,754,176 1.3 2.2 06-30-08
Barclays Global Investors, N.A. 9,202,461 767,766 9.1 98,033,192 1.3 0.1 06-30-08

Does this look dangerous?

David,

Did you hold on to your SKF into the closing?

Can you BELIEVE this...

The day when his followers needed to hear from him the most.... Cramer doesn't show up! But gives them a rerun instead. And NOT just any old rerun, but the rerun from last Monday when the market soared 290+pts after the Fannie & Freddie bailout.

I can just image the poor folks at home who are crushed tonight looking for some sort of hope, and here he is, smiling and joking about how things have turned around because of the bailout. SAD! VERY SAD!

Thank G-d I was led to Bill Cara rather than James Crammer. I really feel bad for those investors who follow him.

QT, I saw the same as you. I was still picking my jaw up from the floor when they cut to today's show. Must have been an error on CNBC's part but it was gallows humour at best, especially considering his upbeat mood!

I watched long enough to hear a 68-year old lady describing her retirement portfolio made up of preferred BAC, Royal Bank of Scotland and LEH - just awful.

pappdjavul - FRO - I think it would be prudent for me to liquidate the remainder of my position in the spirit of preserving capital, and I have heard the same elsewhere as you've presented, but to my best haven't been able to confirm same.

Regardless, thank you for your comments as that was helpful confirmation... :0)

David: I think they would be forced to look for a capped transaction. I'm hearing Kaimu's CONFIDENCE rattling around in my skull cavity. The question then becomes the cost. Will it be cheaper in this worsening environment? Buy the way, pun intended, I have after hour stink bids in on them. Well, not really stink bids, slightly aromatic.

Oh saw this interesting article on Sinking Alpha regarding the gold market>

http://seekingalpha.com/article/95496-the-law-of-supply-and-demand-is-dead-for-gold-and-silver?source=feed

Quentusrex - Lehman's insured deposits

Lehman wasn't a commercial bank, therefore didn't have retail deposits, therefore no FDIC-insured deposits.

Apparently, Lehman did have some retail brokerage customers, who would have had SPIC insurance, I believe up to $500K.

I don't know the funding status of SPIC. I believe it is funded by the industry. Perhaps someone else knows more about this.

Hey Jock! I think you meant SIPC. SPIC is not politically correct.

c3: I sold my second half of SKF at $129.3, about 15 minutes before the close, 14 minutes too soon...

Market closed today below the most recent 'Cramer bottom' on or about July 14th. (Though not as low as the intraday reached on that day.)

Hey, if your bottom just got smashed like Cramers got smashed you'd need a day off, too.

ALOHA !!

FRO DEBT
Current debt for FRO is around $480mil(close to half a bil). In 2006 FRO debt was $2.2bil. They converted that debt to a capital lease in 2007 through Ship Financial and in the notes of their financials when calculating total debt they include "capital lease", which is listed at $2.3bil and add that to short and long term debt and we get close to $2.8bil in debt. Their debt level was becoming a concern so they off loaded it to Ship Financial, but if you look at the financial notes, when they calculate their debt to equity they include the long term capital lease as debt(note #6)! I consider that DEBT since they do! If you look at line item LONG TERM DEBT and line item OBLIGATIONS UNDER CAPITAL LEASE from 2004 to 2007 it is very obvious what happened to the BIG DEBT! What is that word "obligations" anyway?

Think of it this way. You go out and buy a car and you assume a long term debt, but if you lease it you still have a debt(payments), but if you default on the lease payments they still repo your car, you're just not on the hook for any lost principal because you never had any plus you lose tax write-offs on depreciation since you do not own the car being leased.

To me this was a tactic to off load burdensome debt. Hopefully Ship Financial has sustainability through the turbulent credit markets. I would watch Ship Financial along with FRO since they are very much tied together! What does FRO do without their "insider leasing" pal? Hummmmm???

Dave Hyde

I must of bailed out early.... So he did tape the show for tonight. I can't imagin what he said. Pleeeeeeeeeeease tell me he didn't do that stupid "cheap Scotch Whiskey & linoleum" bit.

ALOHA !!

ON SPR
If you go to the EIA website we have a total of 20.4 days of crude oil supply left in the US SPR(Strategic Petroleum Reserves). That is down and has been going down ever since 1985 when it peaked around 32 days. Is that a "plan" for something? Its not a plan to survive an oil crisis!

ON IKE
Right now my Mother is sitting in a house that has no electricity in Conroe, Texas and she does not expect any electricity for another week. Its already been two days without power. We have asked her to come here(Hawaii)or go to my brother's place in Dallas, but she prefers to stay home!

When power goes out gas stations can't pump gas because the pumps run on electricity, even with generator capacity not all pumps are operational at the exact same time. Refrigerated section of grocery stores are also not operational and food is ruined.

Can anyone in the Houston, Texas area shed some light on what is going on there now? I went through hurricane Alicia in Galveston back in the 1980s so I know exactly what is going on in Galveston, but I have no idea what people are doing for gas and food in areas without power. It would be nice to hear a GROUND REPORT from the Houston, Texas area. TIA ...

ALOHA !!

QT ... WHy ... did Cramer tell his MAD MONEY followers to buy LEH, like he did BSC? He told followers to BUY Bear Stearns that Friday and when the markets opened on Monday BSC was vaporized! If people still watch this guy then they deserve to lose their life savings! Of course how long until MAD MONEY wants a FED loan?

After the BSC mess why is this guy still on TV?

On the plus side, if you were looking to buy a condo in Manhattan, there will soon be lots of good deals around.

Read on a paper that C owns about $700M on unsecured LEH debt. C is looking mightily good for next candidate after WM and AIG.

With rumors getting weirder and weirder, anchor on BNN hears some that MS and GS could merge.

kaimu
"If people still watch this guy then they deserve to lose their life savings!"

In my opinion these people are people with $$$ who do not understand the financial world but want to share in the big profits they hear and read about that are made in the market. So they look for someone to tell them how to invest so they can make so called "mad money".

In the end they will loose kaimu...but in the end it is still sad because they were like sheep led to slaughter.

Just my opinion.

Crammer will have his day..... someday...

Billy Sundance - PNRA, St. Louis Bread Co.

I still live in St. Louis, and continue to be impressed with Panera. Their HQ is a modest, 3-story, older building across from one of their stores. They're not wasting money on a fancy HQ.

I have eaten in many of their units in different cities, and found the quality consistently good. They also have free wi-fi, with none of the hassles found at Starbucks.

It's not a time to buy PNRA; the chart is rolling over. But PNRA's NOT a competitor to low-ball, fast food, and provides good value for money. Even in hard times, people will pay a bit more for coffee and sandwiches. I think PNRA will be back.

FRO, it does have a lot of debt .9 total debt to capital with a % profit margin of 43.5.

These stocks (sector) for the most part are trading as a group, just look at:

FRO -7.45%
TNP -2.79%
GMR -4.54%
TK -6.44%
EGLE -5.66%
OSG -5.74%
SFL -9.40%
NAT -7.21%
VLCCF -2.95%
DRYS -13.94%
OCNF -4.80%
PRGN -5.66%
DSX -4.30%
GNK -8.94%
ESEA -4.88%

Kaimu's ESEA does have alot less debt. If you can't stand the heat, get out! There is nothing wrong with living to fight another day.

FRO's

Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity

2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
12/31/2007 12/31/2006 12/31/2005 12/31/2004 12/31/2003
Current Liabilities

Debt in Current Liabilities 276.415 310.266 265.333 173.112 211.269
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt 276.415 310.266 265.333 173.112 211.269
Short-Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts Payable 16.043 17.573 9.382 8.268 7.289
Income Taxes Payable 0.483 0.317 0.2 0.304 0.188
Current Liabilities - Other 297.285 115.76 181.584 164.179 102.566
Accrued Expenses 101.353 89.999 87.81 81.285 76.722
Current Liabilities - Sundry 195.932 25.761 93.774 82.894 25.844
Current Liabilities Total 590.226 443.916 456.499 345.863 321.312

ESLR
This stock seems to be a falling knife. The bottom is zero. Now I must qualify my comments with the fact that I own KRY @ 2.38 and PNP @ 4.00. PNP in the retirement account. That could make me an expert in falling knife catchers. But I now have to ask myself everytime that I ponder one of these plays for myself; would Bill Cara or g034 buy ESRL? Would Warren Buffett ponder it? I have watched g034 make good money "trading" Dupont and other large cap stocks. Maybe the pros know something the knife catchers don't. Maybe trading "exciting" stocks isn't the best way to make real money today; not hope money in the future years forward.

Cramer-bashers: an op-ed

He is a pro-wall-st. guy, opinionated, obnoxious, and brilliant!

How many of us can succeed big-time in three different professions: hedge-funds, authorship, and entertainment?

There's a lot of useful information in his shows. It WOULD be helpful if he were more open about his wrong calls, and admitted that NOBODY bats higher than .400.

If you find his TV-style too obnoxious to watch for more than a few minutes (as I do) seeking alpha provides good summaries of each show.

I reviewed his first book Confessions of a Street Addict on this site some time ago. It is an EXCELLENT, extremely open and honest account of his wild ride as a hedge fund manager. (I'm skeptical about his newer books, and haven't bothered to read them.)

Hey, Cramer is no more obnoxious than the other talking heads, but he sure is smarter!

Jesus, If I hear 1 more person pondering what Warren Buffett would do...

Warren Buffett, the richest man in the world, personally has over 62 billion dollars, yet lives in the same modest house he bought in 1958. That's creepy.

ALOHA !!

Jock ... Okay ... we get it! You and Cramer get a room! HA!!

nemo
Re:
"Hey Jock! I think you meant SIPC. SPIC is not politically correct."

The brain works in mysterious ways... You certainly have a valid point there, my friend. Yet when I read Jock's comment, I thought of Spic and Span, the cleaner, which is owned by Prestige Brands PBH.

They were up today 2.67%~! Their YTD return is very nice; going further back and it stinks.
Insiders have been dumping the stock.
NO position.

Nemo - Ha ha ... thnx for the edit: SIPC !

As a veteran Latin America hand, with many Latin friends, I assure you my mis-spelling was NOT a freudian slip.

Shark - Buffett's houses

Buffett still does own that everyday house in Omaha, but he also has a huge mansion in Southern California which he doesn't talk about ....

For years he lived with a woman he wasn't married to. His wife lived on her own in San Francisco.

It's all about maintaining that grandfatherly image, I suppose.

nemo - Good move, I'm guessing you are/were short oil (DTO), QQQ (QID), Real estate (SRS), and financials (SKF)... That's a hand full!

I bought DTO and then my fat fingers sold it when attempting to place a stop limit but still made a few bucks in spite.

Kaimu,

Does your analysis of FRO debt extend to other Fredriksen holdings such as Seadrill or Deep Sea Supply. I believe I recall seeing some ship sales and leasebacks there too! DESSC also paying a very nice divi of $0.18/qtr. on a ~$3.07 price(~20%).

MARLBORO, Mass. - Shares in solar panel maker Evergreen Solar Inc. plunged nearly 28 percent Monday on investor concerns related to a convertible offering underwritten by now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers.

The stock dive followed the largest-ever bankruptcy filing ever by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (nyse: LEH - news - people ), which filed for Chapter 11 protection after being felled by the credit crisis and lower real estate values.

Lehman underwrote a deal for Evergreen in July pricing $325 million of 4 percent senior notes due 2013. As part of the transaction, Evergreen agreed to lend Lehman 30.9 million shares for hedging transactions for up to five years.

Investor doubts about the fate of the loan sent Evergreen shares down $1.74 to $4.56 in Monday trading. The stock is now down 64 percent since the start of 2008.

The company issued a statement late in the trading session noting that it lent the stock to Lehman affiliates that have not filed for bankruptcy protection. It said the agreements covering the shares were structured to provide Evergreen Solar (nasdaq: ESLR - news - people ) with as much legal protection as is customarily available in such transactions.

"While the ultimate impact of the situation is expected to unfold over the next few months, we are availing ourselves of all legal remedies to protect our company and its shareholders in this very fluid situation," Chief Financial Officer Michael El-Hillow said in the statement.

El-Hillow said the company has sufficient cash to pay its debts and support its operating needs as it drives toward

--drives toward profitability in 2009

kaimu said - "If people still watch this guy then they deserve to lose their life savings! After the BSC mess why is this guy still on TV?"

Krammer makes me nervous and he's an irresponsible boob. I don't find value in his being, without qualifying disclosure of his motives and performance. Let me add that I don't find fault in his audience, the fault lies strictly on him and his network. If they want to provide a service, they should make an effort to qualify the expectation. That is their responsibility to their followers.

That said, I must qualify my own observations by disclosing I don't watch FINTV, but I do read his blurbs occasionally which I eventually relegate to the useless pink noise crap basket.

Here's a nice thought:
Asia has not yet had it's chance to sell off. Tonight will be interesting.

kaimu - FRO - Thanks, looking to jettison and move that back to the best trading plan on earth.

Jock,
Warren lives in my business backyard in Emerald Bay; a closed beach community in Laguna Beach along with Peter Ueberroth and down the street from Bill Gross who lives in the next gated beach community of Crystal Cove. I see Pimco from my current home construction job. Sorry Shark for the comparison. I did not know that Warren was a nerve catcher.

In case anyone was considering argument with my Krammer position, consider this:

"9/9/08 7:12pm EDT

Here's what Jim Cramer had to say about some of the stocks that callers offered up during the "Mad Money Lightning Round" Tuesday evening:

Frontline (FRO Quote - Cramer on FRO - Stock Picks): "I think that their balance sheet is great and they're a steady company. I wouldn't sell it down this low." "

Whole transaction of borrowing ESLR shares by LEH maybe null and void if LEH cheated by defining its own subsidiary with controlling interest in it as an “Affiliate” only company in the agreement governing borrowing of ESLR shares.

If LEH is caught cheating - any transaction involving borrowing/short selling ESLR shares by LEH controlled subsidiary:

- will be invalid, since done within 90 days of LEH bankruptcy filing
- will be reversed by the bankruptcy court
- will be covered by LEH broker insurance

If there were no cheating by LEH and the company cited in the agreement governing borrowing of ESLR shares was truly only LEH “Affiliate” in legal meaning of the word of “Affiliate company” - it means one without vested controlling interest by HEL:

- bankruptcy of LEH should have no effect on ESLR in this case
It means these borrowed shares have not / will not dilute the existing float…..

Per ESLR news release today the “Affiliate” company of LEH which borrowed ESLR shares was: Lehman Brothers International (Europe) and that Affiliate have not filed for bankruptcy protection today and this seems to confirm that this company is not the subsidiary of LEH.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080915/20080915006551.html?.v=1

“Concurrent with the sale of the Senior Notes, the Company entered into a common stock lending agreement with Lehman Brothers International (Europe) (“Common Stock Borrower”) pursuant to which the Company loaned 30.9 million shares of its common stock to the Common Stock Borrower”

“The agreements in question are with affiliates of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. that have not filed for bankruptcy protection and are structured to provide Evergreen Solar with as much legal protection as is customarily available in transactions such as these, said Michael El-Hillow, Chief Financial Officer. While the ultimate impact of the situation is expected to unfold over the next few months, we are availing ourselves of all legal remedies to protect our Company and its shareholders in this very fluid situation.
“The majority of our cash and short term investments are held by Silicon Valley Bank, our corporate commercial bank. We also have funds on deposit with two international commercial banks, continued El-Hillow. We have sufficient cash to complete our 160 MW Devens facility and support our other operating needs as we drive to profitability in 2009″
From Barrons

I raise my previous offer by a factor of 2; I'd kiss that damn pigs ass twice.

Kaimu, re: IKE (please excuse the long, off-topic info – this is for Kaimu, and for anyone else with friends and family, in or near Houston):

Here's what I wrote to some relatives about our experience with Ike. They’re comparing it to Alicia, by the way. A big thank you to Cara reader, Big Al, who gave me good intel before the hurricane, so I was able to get down to Houston, before the storm hit, and help my father ride it out. I think Al’s in or near the Woodlands, which took the brunt of the storm, so I hope he and his family are okay. Another big thank you to Bill - If it weren't for Bill's "social equity," I wouldn't have heard from Big Al about how bad Ike was forecast to be.

Here’s the email: I came down to Houston the day before the hurricane and road it out with Dad. We took a hit to the roof from a large tree branch, and had water pouring into the dining room, all night. Dad and I stayed up all night, bailing with buckets, as best we could. We got a temporary patch onto the roof the next day. We were actually standing under that exact spot when the branch hit, and feel very lucky not to be hurt.

We still have no power, and had no water until yesterday, so we're up in Austin, now, in a hotel, fighting 30,000 FEMA employees, and thousands more evacuees for rooms, so not even sure we'll get to stay here for long. Front desk tells me they think they'll have people checking out, as power goes back on in Houston, so we're inching forward, day by day. (AS of tonight (9/15), Centerpoint still has 1.6 million customers without electricity. The water's back on, but not enough to flush toilets, and the mayor says to still boil water. How they're going to do that without power is beyond me.)

Not sure what's up next, just waiting to hear from the insurance adjuster, and/or that the power's back on down in Houston. They're saying that could take up to a month! Our insurance company has had to call in help from all over the country, and the adjuster assigned to our case has been delayed because Ike's winds were still at 70 mph, for 8 hours in Ohio, yesterday, and they couldn't get out to come to Texas!

Now, with Ike (and Katrina), we have had a preview of what the world will be like when we all run out of energy and water, and food gets scarce. My neighborhood has been civilized, though, by late this afternoon, it was obviously already wearing on some of the biggest doers and helpers. As Dad and I drove to Austin, we stopped many places along the way, to dump small packages of food out of our fridge into various trash cans. We usually stopped at gas stations or convenience stores in small towns. The people there were far, far less friendly to each other. The country folk seem to know it's every person for themselves out there. It seems to me that they don't expect FEMA or anyone else to come rescue them, so they don't give an inch. In gas lines, they rushed to cut each other off, or to not let anyone pass through. I wonder if even my neighborhood would turn out that way, given a long enough time with no power, food, or water. Tonight, they began a curfew in Houston, 9 pm to 6 AM.

On our way up to Austin, we passed lines of ambulances heading into Houston, running their red lights. We also passed several long military convoys, as well as long lines of empty buses heading in to town. We also heard reports of fights breaking out at gas stations, and of police standing by with rifles in evidence. However, I suspect these are isolated incidents, being played up in the media in order to gain attention.

If we could get a generator, we could go back to Houston. But generators are all sold out in Houston, and in all surrounding towns, including Austin. Today, our neighbors on one side spent the day hunting for gas, and reporting on gas lines. The neighbors on the other, in their 70's, and in ill health, finally got out to look for some fast food because they didn't have anything in the house. Only a few fast food places are open – it’s funny how some places never lost power, or were only out for a while. Much of that seems to depend upon how close they were to hospitals and police stations. Elsewhere, MREs, ice, and water are being rationed out at churches, and other places around town. I don't see how they can keep this up for a week, much less a month.

Kaimu, for good, up to date information, try chron.com, the Houston Chronicle’s website. They’re posting power-ups via zip code, and have store, food, water, and gasoline information. One prominent item on the front page: only four Starbucks open in Houston! Hope your mom listens to you, and gets out soon.

PS: Should also say we only had branches on our roof. Many huge pine trees and live oak trees were completely uprooted around our neighborhood (Memorial area), and many fell on houses, completely crushing whatever they fell on. Bolivar Peninsula seems to have been completely obliterated. Galveston is still a complete lockout to its residents. (photos of much of this on chron.com) It's a miracle there weren't more injuries or deaths.

Kramer invited Wachovia's CEO to the show pumping the company. WB was down 25%! today. I wonder how many viewer realized that. I don't believe Kramer disclose that!

GS -

I heard lots of news bites on how "counter party risk" drove down GS's stock price by nearly 13%, even GS is perceived to beat earning tomorrow. What's your take?

writersblock:

Thanks for the post. It will all help us to remember those in need in our prayers

Yes mentioning Buffett hits a nerve.
Buffett was one of the great ones, but the times are changing. He was perfectly in tune with the postwar era, no question. But risk and reward have changed since then. Whereas once the risk of taking home stock overnight (the whole company in Warren's case) might have been drastically outweighed by the risk of NOT owning an insurance company, say. Also, Warren had a gift for understanding the world he was living in and what made for a good investment.

The world has speeded up about a thousand percent in the time since Warren started his first real company back in the '50's. Back then you bought stock and you held it for 3 or 4 years if you were a flipper!

Demographic change was orderly and worker's employment conditions during that golden era allowed for unimpeded growth across the board, of wages, of spending, of costs if all things; it was a bull market for everything.

If Warren were active now he'd be a mouse-jockey like the rest of us, slinging thousand-share blocks as though they were fast food burgers.

What does sentiment indicators
like T2108 and others are saying now

Shark,
I remember in the early 90's a share of class A sold for around 5-7K/share. I remember because at the time I thought of buying 6 shares with my retirement account. When everyone thought that he had lost it in the late 90's the internet bubble redeemed him. Things have changed but it seems to me that trading in the cap values that he moves around in, good money can still be made. Not withstanding the current situation. It may be a long time before anyone makes any long term profits. The volatility is just to wild.

vinod, TraderMike (tradermike.net) has it at 21.48, not yet oversold, but near.

Hi! My name is Stuttering Paulson.... ahnnnnnnddd.... I'''''',,,,,,,mmmmm. hereeeeee to telllllll you.. that nothing iiiiiisssss wrong with the marekttttttttttttttttttssss!!!!

http://i34.tinypic.com/244e4ag.jpg

writersblock
Thanks I found the site

Pookster:

You sure you're not using kaimu as an excuse to get to the pig???

I think we hit bottom today... now it's all smooth sailing!!! (NOT)

"Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Monday the American people can remain confident in the "soundness and resilience in the American financial system." Briefing reporters at the White House, Paulson said he "never once" considered it would be appropriate to put taxpayer money at risk to resolve the problems at Lehman Brothers""

not looking good in asia...

US futes down...

the longer buy-the-dip does not work, the more fuel to the downside...if the Fed is serious about turning things around, maybe they should stop talking and let it drop...it's not like we don't know things are bad; the problem is we don't know how bad things are...once we know, then it's easy to take the hit and move on...(isn't that what leadership is all about? we've all worked for someone who pretends things are alright, and for someone who who's honest about how things are)...

Pookie - Make sure you check the pig for lipstick first!

it's clear the market does not like uncertainty...not sure how much the ESLR conference call clears up, which is the problem...holders in this market are going to sell and ask questions later...therein lies the opportunity..keep it small, and you may be well rewarded...

2nd:

The question is when? I got in at 4.35, but tight stops is all I'm playing on eslr.

nemo - Shhhhhh, that's my "dirty" little secret. Gotta get em when the gettin's good cause all them little pink piggies will be snatched up once the word gets out.... oink, oink. ;)

Scary...whaddya' keep Deliverance under your pillow?

lol nemo, you have a Russian-sapeaking consultant nearby or what :)

Tomorrow is more selling... but then again, seeing this close it's not very hard to reach this conclusion. So, let me add a little from today's observations. If you remember, twice over last week or two I said that buying was unconvincing, more selling was to come (boy, did it come...) What I saw today was more of the same. Whatever buying was there, it was very reluctant. If you observed once buying that comes after real ultimate final life-changing gut-wrenching stomach-churning capitulation, you will recognizxe it ever since then. It's a happy bubbling reckless buy-it-all-come-hell-or-high-water buying. Offers disappear faster than you can say mama, pullbacks get bought before they show up on any chart longer than 1 min, cauting goes out of the window ... There was nothing even close to it today. We are far from final washaout - and this is providing this bear will end with washout which I am not too confident. This could turn into different kind of bottoming out - prolonged, agonizing, drawn-out one. Kind of hard for me to evaluiate the odds here, for me what we are witnessing now has no precedent in my trading experience. Plus, this market's sensitivity to news headlines exceeds anything I've ever seen. get caught on a wrong side when some new comment appears, you get killed instantly.

So... for now, more selling... how it turns out - can't tell, i trade this market on minute to minute, headline to headline basis.

Oh, and completely don't understand board's obsession with ESLR... what is it bout this stock tat everyone is so fixated at? Out of 10,000 others...

My taste for Vodka didn't come from associations with Irish whiskey drinkers?

nemo- most of the uncertainty has to do with potential dilution...operational plans haven't changed...the company did its best to sound forthright and confident in the face of many unknowns, but that's it...personally, all i can offer is a guarantee to shark that it hits 18 before july 4, 2009 ;)

Pookie -

I'm afraid CNBC's only responsibility is to GE shareholders, and its main concerns are ratings, and not getting sued. Cramer fills the bill.

Can we really expect a US network owned by a major financial player (half of GE's business being financial) not to support Wall St. to the hilt? It's up to viewers to filter Cramer's information through that lens.

Given the state of the US educational system, maybe there should ideally be a financial "health warning" displayed on screen as to where the information is coming from and what bias can be expected. But that that would interfere with "free speech" !

Vad- that's like asking why we're fixated on the one woman that turns us down while blind to the 10,000 others out there...

Wow, I'd have to agree with Vad....makes perfect sense. Bring on the shorts folks!!! Maybe while I'm at it I could set up a few laughable stink bids and go off on extended vacation. Lets see... IBM $1.50, Boeing $1.10.....

CP- with bids like those, you NEED a vacation ;)

shanghai under 2000...

south korea giving up almost 2 years of gains...

ditto for taiwan..

writersblock- Man, I hope all goes well for you and your Dad. The ins company was correct that Ohio got slammed too, which was a complete shock to us because we've never seen a hurricane come this far north with that much force. We're used to light wind and rains from them. But it was 75mph and up to 120 in some areas nearby. Tons of folks are without power around here too and lot's of felled trees and powerlines. I don't have utility power either, but I do have a home generator that is a godsend in times like these. It runs off my house's natural gas and I bought it because we had a major ice storm 4 years ago that knocked everybody out similarly at the time. So I'm one of the lucky ones right now because I have power and they say it will probably be up to a week before the power is back. I can only imagine what you guys are going through though because I know how much worse it must have been there and my thoughts are with you and your Dad. Be safe.

2nd,

OK, that explains it... also explains why I don't do that anymore, lol. Ceased to be a fan of playing hard-to-get since 18 I think, like mutual understanding more. Oh, and in case it's not clear, I am talking about stocks :)

Great CSN song about the hunt "Fair Game"

Jock - My definition of irresponsibility is inclusive of potential impact to the portfolios of 90 year old grandmas and other invalids whether they're mentally adept or not. Do you know how to calculate the beta of a transistor, or the thickness of a chemical vapor phase deposited polysilicon layer?

All consumer appliances come with some form of hazard warning in their instruction manual, many are several pages long. How when it comes to a persons life savings can responsibility can be so easily dismissed? I'm appalled at the touting of complete dimwits which I so desperately attempt to filter and if this is the attitude which I am expected to tolerate, then I vote FOR the total demise of our current form of market system. That would certainly level the playing field! Play fair, or don't play at all!

the huge drops in asia are (IMO) a good sign that we are close to a trade-able bottom...the drops stop sometime; at some point there is true value and that's when we each decide whether or not to grasp the opportunities out there...

Nikkei at a 3 year low..

Is anyone else here baffled at the Pope's latest emergence from hibernation? During a long period of strife in the Middle East, Financial Turmoil worldwide, etc for the couple of years we've heard nothing from them, and then they decide to come out with their first message in ages today: "Accept death at the time of God's chosing". What the heck? What a useless throwback to the Dark Ages.

Oh, I forgot to add. I hope the Vatican has a lot of FNM/FRE in their portfolio.

I wonder if anyone here recalls buying or selling a home within the last , say, 10 years... This involves a full physical disclosure usually entailing a levy of professional inspections. There are many reasons for these disclosures, the spirit of which are to protect both the buy and sell side from financial disappointment.

The reason this is so important is because we're talking about the life savings and long term commitment of those savings in a financial investment. I fail to see how anyone could possibly fathom an "well it's totally the buyer's fault" attitude when knowing full well that the seller has purposefully misrepresented the equity in question. Why do you think we have laws governing monopolistic activity in this country? It all comes back to lobbyists and politics and how the system can be manipulated to the advantage of monopolistic businesses.

Shame on them, and shame on anyone who defends any resemblance of their being. What would you say if your grandmother were to find herself homeless in this, the richest nation on planet earth due to the fact that some slick dimwit television personality helped stack the cards against her?

Interesting comment:

Monday was the third 90 percent down day in the past two weeks. This is typical panic selling
action as stocks crash land. Monday’s decline was on the highest volume ever for the New York Stock Exchange, over 8.2 billion shares. Our analysis of Demand Power and Supply Pressure Monday tells us there was enormous Plunge Protection Team buying going on to support prices. Without that government intervention, we could have seen a 10 to 15 percent decline in stocks Monday, and we would be calling this Black Monday the sequel. For the first time ever, our Blue Chip PPI indicator went negative.

From the "Daily Market Newsletter"
by Robert McHugh PhD

Vad- LOL, so that's your secret...many good traders here understand stocks, but you're the only one i know who claims to be understood by stocks...

Goodnight folks today's wild ride has me beat.

God, what a slaughter in Asian Markets tonight! Loading up my stink bids for tommorow's N.A open....

2nd... yes, many told me it's a troublesome sign when one talks to stocks he watches, but you know you are in serious troubles when they start talking back to you...

“Concurrent with the sale of the Senior Notes, the Company entered into a common stock lending agreement with Lehman Brothers International (Europe) (“Common Stock Borrower”) pursuant to which the Company loaned 30.9 million shares of its common stock to the Common Stock Borrower”

vinod: if Lehman Brothers International did not file for bankruptcy protection, then why did Michael El-Hillow (ESLR CFO) said that the 30.9 million shares were already sold in the market? I thought Lehman was supposed to hold those shares until 2013...

Sumitomo Trust:Lehman Exposure In Derivatives Trade About Y6B

11:45 PM ET 9/15/08 | Dow Jones
RELATED QUOTES

4:00 PM ET 9/15/08
Symbol Last % Chg
LEH
0.21 -94.25%
STBUY
5.70 -5.79%
Real time quote.

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. (8403.TO) said Tuesday it has a net exposure of about Y6 billion in derivatives trading to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH), which filed for U.S. bankruptcy-court protection Monday.

Sumitomo Trust said it doesn't have exposure via loans and corporate bonds to the U.S. investment bank.

The trust bank said it doesn't expect any impact on its earnings for the current fiscal year ending March.

-By Atsuko Fukase, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-5255-2957; atsuko.fukase@dowjones.com

How does a company have Y6 Billion in derivative exposure to a company that just went bankrupt, not have an effect between now and March? How will they avoid recognizing the losses(or gains) from the derivatives over 6 months from now? Wouldn't they recognize them atleast in one of the quarterly filings between now and then???

gdiman, good to hear you are okay, too. Weird the way the weather has turned out. Wonder what's in store this winter, as, while my father lives in Houston, I live in Boston. Brr. Looking to get long a new generator, both in TX and in MA!

Placing a buy limit order on ESLR at $4.01 and at $3.5. Placing a sell limit order at $6.50 for the shares I bought today at $4.50. Heck, anything can happen. :)

David:

I think the ESLR shares have to be returned by 2013 when the notes are redeemed. So, they borrowed the shares for 5 years. If they can't return the shares, why would eslr return the money? Therefore, the notes end up being an equity offering.

According to Fidelity, there are 164.7 million shares outstanding, I assume 30 mill of which are from the offering =22% increase in float.

Placing a buy limit order on VLO at $30.1. Hoping for a gap down tomorrow and a green close after FOMC makes a nice statement.

Here's an article on the eslr offering:

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?symbol=US:ESLR&feed=BW&date=20080627&id=8835430

Nevermind, they're screwed

If the notes were to reach the convertible price, there's the potential for another 26.8 million shares. However, if they just got screwed out of those shorted shares, I don't think you have to worry about the price making $12 anytime soon

Thanks for the link on ESLR's original offering, nemo.

Who is screwed, in your opinion, and why? If Lehman Brothers International does not go bankrupt by 2013, then they will have to buy 30.9 million ESLR shares at the market price and return them to ESLR.

from our Sep 2 post:

"Well if the market could not rally with the normal bullish tone at month-end and holiday trading and it moved down the last two trading sessions, then the market is telling us it is weak and the path of least resistance is down...the decline of the last 2 trading days has once again produced an environment where the number of very weak stocks is greater than the number of very strong stocks. That means that the downside is in play and the upside is capped for now."

It looks like a panic decline has set in. Historically, those panics soon thereafter produce meaningful bottoms in stock prices. It will take another hard move down in stocks and a few more trading days to turn our technical indicators from neutral to bullish. At that point, we'll be setting price targets for a few global equity index ETFs (below the market) so that we can get invested. Note that we have been bearish on U.S. stocks since Jan.2008 when we published our research report "Another Turn in the Tide" which is available on our website:
http://www.2globalmarkets.com/2GMPages/MktComm.htm
Stay tuned. While there is more to go on the downside, we believe the odds for an excellent buying opportunity in U.S. stocks have risen dramatically.

David:

Yes, if...and with the fuzziness (lack of clarity around the issue) of the market in the near to medium term, I recommend your favorite lubricant. The CEO said over the next few months the issue would clarify, so volatility or price surpression is likely. Therefore, the market will likely default to viewing the stock as issued, so pricing for the forseeable future will take this into account.

Having said that, with the Vix spiking today, it might recover enough tomorrow (eslr) for those who bought yesterday, or later yesterday to get out whole.

To throw silver lining in all the doom and gloom... oil is at $91.95. lousy 12 bucks left till that $80... and with such acceleration, it may not even stop there

I'm getting indications oil may go "a lot" lower, no reasonable downside target clearly available. Think this is more a question of time - wait it all out. I'm now forcing myself to sit on my hands (and reasonable amount of puts), and not doing any knife catching even in my favorites.

commodities do not follow the same chart patternms as equities, I would never buy a falling wedge in a commodity for example - in equities one usually can.

from Gene Inger's latest daily, succintly explaining why New York & commercial real estate - and a lot of other stuff - is now suddenly visibly toast, and why markets may accelerate to the downside from here.

_________________________________________

"Why is a Goldman Sachs down so sharply, or others that weren't heavy in residential real estate. Even Wells Fargo now says they'll have to take related charges. That the answer is so simple defies how so many missed it: when one falters everyone looks a bit askance at their own holdings, and wonders what their exposure is (to wit: they for sure see Lehman's commercial real estate holdings in New York City, an area we've warned was in a topping phase -for the entire year heretofore- and now it's too late to sell there too; Lehman tried, couldn't move the portfolio and that was that). Now there is a rush to compute what Lehman assets will be liquidated, and anyone who sees an identical or comparable holding, tries to sell before Lehman's dissolution is effected in the bankruptcy. Basically they are trying to get out an already mostly closed door first (by the way, these assets at some point will be moving from weak hands to strong or long-duration hands, but it's a process as we've indicated all along, and it takes time)."

So many entities were exposed to these 'packages' of assets; nobody really knows at this point the extent (here or abroad) of risk. That uncertainty is a multiplier effect for the downside. If you factor-in the debtor status of the Nation, not just because a war was fought with the modern versions of guns & butter on the credit card essentially or the housing mess (which is not by any stretch finished on the downside, with our view being an overrun unfortunately of the bubble's 'base' which means surrendering more like ten years or more gains, rather than the five years of the bubble itself), and tie-in the impossibility of accurately calculating the exposures; you get an exiting implosion.

Vadym-got your book today and it is next up after I wrap Bill's up.

Sold my S&P500 puts, SKF, and SRS today, but before the last 15 points of loss in S&P. All cash now. Comrade Hank and his hanky panky are due to make an appearance anytime now. With GS reporting (and how can they not beat estimates when they know everything that is going on first), possible rate cut tomorrow, and Comrade Hank working on a fix for AIG, we are ripe for an ambush. I plan to sit in cash and watch the market ride it back up some so I can set all my shorts again.

Economy is accelerating on downside in my opinion. New York state August sales tax and personal income tax withheld were both down year over year, joining CA and FL and AZ. And the layoffs from Wall Street are really going to bite now.

Re FRO, kaimu has it right. Wikipedia actually has some good bio on Fredriksen (see below).

I dumped all my tanker stocks waaay too soon, before the big blowoffs (look at DRYS, who could of imagined . . . ). Most are still above where I got out, but now is not yet the time to buy back.

I know some folks who loved Frontline bought evertything else that Fredrikssen did. I was most interested in Seadrill, if you like RIG . . . but in the end never bought any.

___________________________________________

John Fredriksen, (born 11 May 1944) is an oil tanker and shipping tycoon, owner of the world's largest oil tanker fleet, and was Norway's richest man until he chose to abandon his Norwegian citizenship and take up a Cypriot passport.[1] Norwegian magazine Kapital listed Fredriksen in 2007 with a net worth of NOK 55.5 billion ($11 billion USD). Through his investment companies Hemen Holdings and Meisha, Fredriksen controls the companies Frontline and Golar LNG from his £100 million Chelsea home in London. He also has major interests in the oil rig operator SeaDrill, the fish farming company Marine Harvest and the dry bulk company Golden Ocean Group. Fredriksen also recently announced that Frontline through acquisitions and options and secured 9,6% of the worlds largest shipholding company Overseas Shipholding Group.

Call me Slam Dance:

"[Bill Cara note: Is it too difficult to check the FDIC list of the weakest US banks and to transfer assets to the strongest?"

I don't feel the need to defend myself, I'll just withhold feedback in the future.

ALOHA !!

writersblock ... First thanks for the Houston GROUND REPORT! I hope you and your Dad get back home and the insurance company does not jerk you around on the damages. After Alicia I was sent out to inspect damages for final payment from insurance companies. If you like adulation from strangers then that's a GREAT job! I also recall the major insurers petitioning the State to reduce claims paid. Many ended up getting paid only 10 cents on the dollar! The insurers threatened to pull out of Texas totally if they didn't get their way! Well ... that's politics!

It seems a lot of people were unprepared for IKE. My Mother is even out looking for a generator as well! I spoke with her today and she tells me everything is fine and all the neighbors are very supportive of each other. As you say though, if this stretches out for two weeks it may cause some nerves to fray! My Mother was well prepared for food and water, but not so prepared for temp power or gas.

Best of luck to you and your Dad and Big Al of the Woodlands. I recall the Woodlands very upscale! Even "designers" street light poles!

Thanks again ...

We're all wondering what to expect from the USD, some are expecting it to at least hold up and even rally a little nore going into next year.
Others are expecting it to resume it's slow but sure crash & burn trajectory.

I'm no forex expert, do not trade forex, but this just came across via Saxobank, may be a shortterm indication of what to expect:

"Keep an eye on chf crosses..broker market is paying up for usd/chf options, and paying for usd downside via the risk reversal..this after a general feeling of CHF complacency"

One last comment on tanker stocks, FRO & Fredriksen.

All the great tanker stocks have been the work of one wheeler-dealer man. You don't buy the balance sheets or the "fundamentals", you buy that man. Either you believe or you don't.

Now, Fredriksen is no longer young. Buying his stocks today would be like buying Microsoft - they may still be good investments, but the upside has already largely been eaten.

I would love to find a young "Fredriksen" just starting out in some area, and buy into his comapnies.

looking at sectors on a 10 year chart, which sector has most procentual downside left to reach the 2002 bottom are? XLE

looking at more recent charts, which sector is the only one to have a significant gap down, on a weekly basis no less? XLE

hmmmmm . . . .

http://tinyurl.com/6yta9q

Riddle me this. Why do the masses hang on the every declaration from the same clowns that got the economy into this situation?

Gene Inger again (no way to link to his password protected site):

"The collapse of three biggest names on Wall Street threatens to also wipe out many billions of dollars from global pension funds and the banking and insurance industries which could evolve to a worldwide chain reaction. Since predicting this 'epic unwind', I've already called this the worst financial catastrophe since the Great Depression. It has the potential, if not the certainty, to be the greatest one in history period; already in inflation-adjusted Dollar amounts conceivably, and beyond the 'panic of 1907'."

Don't lose your green in evergreen, baby....

with oil tanking like Titanic, and ESLR having broken through it's historic support, now aint the time to buy. Now's the time to wonder why.
Couple of weeks, McCain/Palin win, solar goes back to the 1970's along with Jimmy Carter's Cardigan sweater and the ghost of Thurman Munson.

DRILL DRILL DRILL baby.

curious, Saxobank just issued a "buy" recommendation on Seadrill (I would not buy it here, and Saxobank's recommendations have not been all that hot.)

(note this is on the Norwegian bourse.
NO:SDRL at bigcharts.com, SDRL.OL at Yahoo)

"Trade Idea (Equities) - Fundamental Call - We are looking to buy Seadrill (SDRl:xosl) within the entry range of 116-118 targeting 130. Keep a stop-loss at 110."

agree re ESLR. Some other indicators show 5 bucks in Oct. Not enough reward for the risk. GL to long.

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

ADBE - Upgraded to Buy @ Kaufman Bros.

----------------------------------------------------

Oh, the humanity !

TLT PINGED 100

Time to start edging into tlt puts? or rrpix

"Money-Market Rates Double Amid Global Credit Seizure (Update1)

By Gavin Finch and Kim-Mai Cutler

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing in dollars overnight more than doubled to the highest since 2001 amid speculation the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may cause more financial institutions to fail.

The overnight dollar rate soared 3.33 percentage points to 6.44 percent today, its biggest jump, according to the British Bankers' Association. Lehman filed for bankruptcy yesterday after succumbing to mounting credit-market losses. "

Could this be the start of a rise in interest rates? Will rates finally start rising to a more reasonable level?

re:tlt

look at tbt but I wouldn't be in any hurry until TLT RSI 7 drops below 70 (73 at yesterday's close)

is anybody out there baby????

Maybe between banks and the fed/treasury, but higher interest rates would kill any chance of housing recovering which is the big plan.

The trouble being there is no capital/credit, so long term the rates must rise.

Hard to breathe between this rock and hard place...

By the way I wan't actually saying NOT to buy ESLR, it could be good. If it starts going up I'll buy it.

Goldman Sachs Profit Plunges 70%:

http://tinyurl.com/6l7exy

I'm saying NOT to buy it esp for next 6 weeks but to each, his own.

I'd be watching DXO as the tell. JMO.

Shark, Jock,

re: Buffett

I have long followed his comments and read his biography a couple of times — no doubt his approach has done well for a lot of people, but..

When he turned his over to Bill Gates to distribute, he lost stature in my view.

Gates has moved jobs to Canada (to save money on health care) and fired a whole department for their objections to being under cut in salary by his hiring of imports from India. Gates went to congress, once again, a couple months ago to put his order in for more H1(b) visas. Congress will doubtless boost from the current 85,000.

Yeah, I know, he's just taking care of the shareholders...

If an Indian PH.d will work for as little as an American with a brand new bachelor degree, why pay six-figures to send your kid to college?

My son (BS from Ivy League school) recently had two newly hired PH.ds (starting at close to entry level) working with him. The fear in the department for some time (Since the management recommended reading, The World is Flat) has been that the entire operation may be moved to India.

re Saxobanks call on Seadrill (heh-heh!):

"Trade Idea (Equities): Fundamental Call - We were long in Seadrill (SDRL:xosl) from 118.118. We were just stopped out at 109.89 booking 6.95% loss."

Grantmi,

Paulson on TV yesterday commenting on Lehman...

(Paraphrased) "I would never consider using taxpayer dollars to rescue a financial institution."

I swear I saw his nose grow!

In his defense — They say short term memory is the first to go.