David- reference your 1241a post...it's not that hard...it's the side that's running for the exits-> you can tell when shorts are squeezed or longs are typing market/below-market ask, right...you can also put yourself in their shoes before the price action even starts, and it will usually be obvious which pair you'd rather not be wearing...as far as watching price action, this is where your 'tuition' pays off (and maybe that's why they call INtuition what they call it)-> we both know what panic feels like when long and short; the accelerating bids/asks always seem to run the same kinds of patterns, so when taking the other side, 'pretending' you're on the wrong side gives you good guesses for entry points...(admire your ability to sleep through it all)...

Better to be lucky than good. I got out of SKF of Thursday and switched over to UYG. I am holding 2 week calls on OEX that I bought on EOD Thursday and on the lows Friday. You just got to love the volatility if you are a day trader on the right side! Looking to add SKF back again under $100. A few days ago Jim Cramer said to buy on Monday with both fists if the market was down. Looks like everyone is going to do it anyways. I might just sell today, but it could be a really good week for longs.

b0ss- congrats...discipline for the long run, but i have great respect for luck/chance/karma/whatever...if it's a short-covering rally i wouldn't wait too long...

Hi,
I am new to commenting. I wanted to buy some fannie mae prefered stock during early trading at fidelity, but thier income department does not open until 8am and no one could give me the fidelity symbol. Does anyone know the fidelity symbol?

In natgas discussion last week I said that from a chart point of view, UNG is clear to around $35-36. We are there right now, with prints in $35.20s. I have no futher read at this point, to me this short-term trade is completed. Congratulations to those who took it.

"China" right in the room when the Paulson plan was put togehter:

The first link is to a letter from the Federal Reserve to H. Rodgin Cohen, an attorney representing Chinese banking interests. In this letter, the Fed waives restrictions against the Chinese from buying and owning US banks. It also exempts the Chinese from the Bank Holding Company Act that demands reporting and capital requirements.

The second link is from a New York times article that describes the Paulson meeting about the Government takeover of Fannie and Freddie. At that meeting was the same H. Rodgin Cohen, who just so happens to also represent Fannie Mae.

http://tinyurl.com/55qx3q

http://tinyurl.com/69kbtj

yaya- try FNM/PF, FNM/PR, FNM/PS...

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

TS - Upgraded to Buy @ Citigroup

NOK - Downgraded to Hold @ Deutsche Securities

ABB - Coverage Initiated with an Underperform @ Credit Suisse

--------------------------------------------------

Get out your bailing buckets. I'm looking to re-establish a position in SKF this morning.

Have a great day everyone.

i'm with BH- looking for an entry into SKF...

I have a buy limit on SKF at 94.53. Support line drawn from Dec and April lows. No execution by 10 AM, I'll switch to a trailing buy stop.

yaya - FNM-S FDRNP FNM-R FNM-I FNM-H FNM-F FNM-G
http://tinyurl.com/5pljj8

http://tinyurl.com/6f4bq3

"The New York Stock Exchange halted pre-market trading of Fannie and Freddie, although in Frankfurt trade, Freddie Mac shares lost half their value, trading at $2.55 per share."

Friedman Billings changed the target price of FNM and FRE to 50 cents a share.

Cara 100 Update:

RIMM - Upgraded to Outperform @ Morgan Keegan

See, if you just throw ENOUGH of someone else's money at YOUR problem....Anything's possible.

Good morning

Investors not only returned to a shortened trading week after the Labor Day holiday on Monday, but also to a bruising on global stock markets, at least for those with long equity positions.

Stock markets and commodities ended the first week of a traditionally bad September deeply in the red, but government bonds and the greenback benefited from the deleveraging and a flight to perceived safety.

I have mentioned previously that the mid-July stock market lows need to be sustained in order for the summer rally and the market’s base building to still be in effect. These levels – 10,963 for the Dow Jones Industrial Index and 1,215 for the S&P 500 Index – approached with unnerving speed last week.

Read all about this in my weekly "Words from the Wise" review: http://tinyurl.com/6rx8ky

That's the way it looks from Cape Town.

BH- i would think about it at 0.50...

I find it amazing how each bailout is following the same story: "if we didn't act the financial market would have colapseed and this would have hurt the average american very hard...".

What is the real impact on americans if the market blew-up?

A huge market rally at the open today, will give investors a chance to unload stocks.

Out of UYG @ $25.10, over 20% gain since last week is enough for me...

Looking to start SKF around 90ish but might wait until tomorrow. SRS might look good too?

So guys, will fannie and freddie go up?

"Gov. Palin represents change too."

Oh, come on, Bill. Be serious. An unknown who is just more of the same is not an agent of change.

But I do agree that Obama is lacking in economic understanding. But he is so many other ways better than McCain that this election shouldn't even be close.

[Bill Cara note:

You know that I support no candidate. From what I see, neither Palin/McCain nor Obama/Biden represent change. I have been consistent in saying that Obama and McCain are already in the pockets of a relatively few people. The only thing new in my comment was that I observed a change in polls, and I reiterated my disappointment with what I perceived in a TV interview yesterday to be a deep lack of understanding of economic and financial matters by Obama. I could have added that McCain's wife probably has as much understanding in this regard as her husband. Having said all that, I still find this contest to be an interesting one, and one that will be decided by the strength of their organizations in getting out the still undecided voter.]

Further data for SKF punters.. courtesy of the gloomy (read: realist) economist leading the RBI stats this season:

On Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor, Nouriel states that it is by now clear that the shopped-out, saving-less and debt-burdened U.S. consumer is on the ropes and that there will be a significant and persistent contraction of real consumption for the next few quarters. He gives us about a dozen separate negative headwinds that are now hitting the U.S. consumer, while the positive effects on consumption of the tax rebates are already fading away. Check out his “The Coming US Consumption Bust: 12 Reasons Why the US Consumer is in Serious Trouble and Faltering”

http://tinyurl.com/5t9q3m

Okay #2son, let's give Bill the opportunity.....

So far the corruption fighting claim is at best a wash and seems to be falling apart on further examination. Like Kerry she was for all that stuff before she was against it.

She has the same science and reproductive position as GW.
Same for the war.
If her fiscal position is McCains then ditto on the fiscal front...favor the wealty.

So far all of her social and fiscal positions are George Bush's....

She IS a woman, which some could argue is different than Bush, other's may disagree. :>)

I don't know.....Where do you see the change Mr. Bill?

[Bill Cara note:

The "change" slogan is a shallow one for both sides, which is my only point. Re Gov. Palin, I have already called her an oil lobbyist, gun-toting, right-to-lifer (or something to that effect). She could have fit right into the present Administration. The spin-masters for the GOP who were backing her at the convention were the same crew that were at the last two, three or more.]

Per some interesting comments over @ the big picture blog, the 20yr Tbond, and the Vix might bear watching today, to see if this has some cajones, or is a sucker's rally. What to look for beyond sprt/resi & trends, I don't know. Perhaps keep an eye on the old standards:
GOOG/AAPL/RIMM/MSFT/GE/T/WMT/MCD/CVS

SKF @ 9X.00... Christmas coming early?

So, it looks like the Paulson plan put FRE/FNM common shares in the dirt (six feet under).

[Bill Cara note:

...With one crucially important distinction. The legal entity continues so that HB&B does not have to write off its investment. They get to continue to lie to the market that their assets are solid and their reserves are adequate. Paulson just cemented that position. This is why I am so ticked. He used his office as Treasury Secretary to benefit his friends. And then CNBC trots out Buffett who has major assets in financial services companies that might also go under water if they had to write off the syndicated mortgage crap. How objective is he? NOT. What disappoints me is that nothing changes in the US. People continue to get fleeced by the same crowd. I guess nobody can do anything about it in the USSA.]

FRE/FNM with "1" handles...

Unintended consequences...?

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Investors may be forced to unwind contracts protecting $1.47 trillion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds against default after the U.S. government seized control of the companies in a bid to bolster the housing market.

Thirteen ``major'' dealers of credit-default swaps agreed ``unanimously'' that the rescue constitutes a credit event triggering payment or delivery of the companies' bonds, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said in a memo obtained by Bloomberg News today. Market makers for the privately traded contracts will discuss how to settle them in a conference call at 11 a.m. in New York, the document said.

``This is a big deal,'' said Sarah Percy-Dove, head of credit research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management in Sydney. ``The market is not experienced at settling a credit event for a name of this size, so it is a bit of an unknown.''

[Bill Cara note:

Actually, I think this might be a ruse to get Paulsen into backing those settlements too. When all is said and done, I don't think the cost to the US taxpayer will be limited to $200 billion. If there is any way for HB&B to grab found money, they will certainly find it.]

We've got us a FRE/FNM Sarabration!!!! Let's all Sarabrate and have a good time!!!

Dipped a toe in SKF @ 97.64

MAde 40 percent on freddie

Cara 100 Update:

INTC - Target Price Lowered from $26 to $24 @ Lehman Bros.

You know there's a lot of SKF buying when you can't get orders filled. I've never had that happen with my broker.

jeeze

Out SKF @ 102.37

Scottraders

Things are moving so fast my Elite trading screen locks up. I can't place a trade. Anyone else having the same problem?

lemme hear all yer freddie/fannie stories...who did what?

I picked up SKF through Scottrade @ 9:34 AM

I just use their web interface though, not Elite.

bought freddie at one-twelve and sold early, at one-forty-nice, but seeing the way this sucker collapsed, selling was the right idea. Does this old mare have one more kick left in her?

TDAmeritrade was running very slow too. I couldn't get in on the action of FRE/FNM. I would put a limit in, then it would take 4 mintues to cancel it. After things slow down a bit, I might be able to trade something else.

Nice move, Schleppy.

I set my limit order too low.

I am pretty sick of these bailouts being pitched as good for me, the avg citizen. and being stuck with the bill.

just sick of it.

no one, it seems, cares to be left holding THIS doo-doo bag.

Tried to buy FRE @$0.90 but my broker site dumped me.

shark- re FRE, major cojones...my target still 0.50..

this is YOUR chance to get YOUR PIECE of the bailout. it's the new american dream...

Looks like investors don't believe yhoo's ceo (YANG) when he turns down a 33.00 a share buy out offer from MSFT. Maybe YANG is waiting for a Fed take over..... funded by the taxpayers great-grand children.

I used market for both of my orders, not something I usually do but with the backlog of quotes I wasn't even sure what to set the limit at. I was more worried about execution than price.

Bill may be disappointed by Obama's lack of understandng of economic matters, but both Obama and McCain are both economic Einstein's compared to George W.
Does anyone know the cost of this Fannie/Freddie bailout?

[Bill Cara note:

George W has a Harvard MBA and worked in the oil industry and was co-owner and managing partner of a major league baseball team. He may not be everybody's cup of tea, and obviously not yours, but I see no reason to make your remark.]

Hey folks,

what do make of the early selling into this rally Dow from +330 to +206?

2nd...you didn't jump in at a buck and change this morning? what, are ya losing yer touch:)?

looks like it's going up again

SU coming back to us ...

shark- you're on...throwing a couple chips on FRE at 1.27...

i'm startin' to worry about this one 2nd...

http://tinyurl.com/6qf4qk

Author opines that Fannie/Freddie bailout will backfire.

[Bill Cara note:

Definitely worthy of reading. Thanks.]

shark- it's only been eight minutes...why don't you give it a few days...it's almost like buying a junior miner at this point-> it either pays off big or bites the dust...

Picked up some FRE @$1.20

Q: Does anyone know the cost of this Fannie/Freddie bailout?

A: Only the future of 330 million taxpayers.

AES, the TRIN indicated there was a ton of selling at the open, but the TICK indicated that it wasn't "that" broad. On the other hand, no one's "bought the market," yet, as far as I can see. I'm guessing the trading desks made their money in the overseas markets, overnight, which torqued up the futures, and then they waited for everyone to pile in here, and sold into it. Will have to see if it holds. Volume still tepid in the issues I'm watching. Suspect many trading desks still underfunded.

can you say total retracement?

... If, that is, I am reading those indicators correctly.

a few days! dude, I'm a "daytrader" which means, these days, a good trade will last 5 minutes to an hour maybe. A bad trade lasts from between 2 seconds to 15 minutes, max....

I'll bet there's close to 661 million eyeballs popping right about now!

shark- the people you should be concerned about are the buy-and-holders who have been watching the move from 65.88 to 1.02...

writersblock,

thank you for your insight. i think they will keep it up as too many are betting on a retracement like last week. i also think that the trading desks have enough liquidity as they do not need to absorb huge amounts of treasuries this week.

XLF is already @ it's 13-day average daily volume. And it's all from doing "the nasty."

VIX opened up @ 22 ish (support) and has marched up this past hour. Met yesterday's descending trendline and respected it.

Can't tell anything from the 10 year. Still short term oversold?

shark- OK...i just don't think the buyers here are the ones getting screwed; no comment on the sellers...

"Anyone" can make money in the stock market in a couple of years. The real game, the one worth playing is, can you make money TODAY in the market. And it's a question you have to keep asking, every day. But that is the essence of the New American Dream. "Managing capital" is all well and good. Taking other people's capital, well, that's the sweetest feeling on earf.

make that 'regarding the sellers..'

"'Anyone' can make money in the stock market in a couple of years."

that's what they're saying at legg mason...

2nd and sharkie,
The Frannie common shareholders are first in line to absorb all the loss. But the Chairman Hank also gave the Treasury muy grande warrants which will dilute existing common shareholders up to about 80%. To me you guys are juggling hand grenades with the pins pulled. You guys have a high threshold for excitement!

I remember what happened to the GSE's a few days after the big rout, expecting the same this time, gonna double or triple my money... All in!!!!

scottrade, in their paternalistc wisdom, is not letting cusTomers place buy orders on freddie. i just called the branch, you can SELL on scottrade, but buy orders have to be placed through the branch.

THAT BITES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Freddie's calling me at $1.10....

Anyone care to take a stab at this?
Cardima (CADM.OB) has 2 people buying a huge amount of shares since October of last year.
Thousands of shares daily.
I'm not promoting this stock because I realize it is a hail mary stock. Most likely the company will go belly up.
I'm just wondering if anyone has a guess as to why someone would buy so many shares for so long. I'm only looking for a guess. These 2 people already own about 65% of the shares.

"Treasury muy grande warrants which will dilute existing common shareholders up to about 80%."

Ok, thanks for explaining where our buy limits should be (or should've been).

Learner2- LOL...i think we all know it's a gamble...not worried about grenades, though...they've already gone off in the hands of the jugglers, and i'm just picking up the pieces..

If you have a problem with a broker because their online trading software prevented you from placing a trade and their phone support kept you on hold for 1/2 hr, where can you go to file a complaint? I never had such a bad experience with Schwab before, but it cost me $1200 watching RIMM take a dive this am.

CP- not sure you want to say those words during market hours ;) we're passing the major cojones title to you...

Someone explains to me. TBT is going up, which means yield is expecting to go higher. So traders foresee higher risk ahead. It makes sense to me that equity market should go lower. But there are 250+ points jump. One of them should be wrong.

airlines tanking wtf...

The bottom just fell out of UAUA? What's up?

A bunch of people just got suckered into losing a whole bunch of $$$$ this morning!

Someone(s) hit the bid pretty hard there, for a second.

learner...i made 37 percent in 2 minutes...i say gimme the hand grenades...

seen lehman? biting the dust. this bailout is being held in lesser and lesser esteem.

schleppy- thanks for the heads up...any news on UAUA?

trading's been halted on UAUA...

uaua showing 1 cents
is this real? chapter 11

trade halted on UAUA

Bankruptcy on UAUA

long SU at 48.36. Sell stop at 47.14/47 limit

Plane ran off the runway in San Antonio - no one hurt

UAUA plane, that is

Nothing I see. My Scottrade is showing last trade $.01??????

I picked a great day to have to leave for a golf outing....have a profitable day everyone!

United Express, that is, regional carrier for United

HB&B got investors into their office this morning, by this afternoon they will administer their prostate exam on the unsuspecting buyer of this new market pump.
Buyers beware, profit taking is in full swing by Paulson and his ultra rich buddies!

shark - I don't see GSE's going up much more today. I missed the bottom where the day trade money was.

2nd - I only qualify for cojones pequenos or maybe borracho pollo award. This was only some dry powder lying around, which if doubled or tripled would pay a few month's expenses.

holy UAUA for a second i thought there was another terrorist attack

which one of you jamooks sold uaua for a penny?

william, looks as if the rest of the market did, too, if only briefly.

Now UAUA is denying reports of bankruptcy. Hope that's not a non-denial, denial, in reverse.

No position in UAUA, by the way.

UAUA: CNBC'S FABER: A STORY POSTED ON CHICAGO TRIBUNE WAS A FOUR YEAR OLD STORY ABOUT UNITED'S PRIOR BANKRUPTCY

apollo7 - DOW up means money flowing into DOW. Bonds down (TBT up) means money flowing out of bonds.

chicken, don't throw in the towel yet. I think Freddie has 1 more rally left in it today.

Re: UAL Chap 11

http://tinyurl.com/6alxsw

Crazy day all over . .

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- London Stock Exchange Group Plc, operator of the world's fourth-largest market, broke down on the busiest morning for European equities in nine months, hurting clients who trade an average $17.5 billion a day.

http://tinyurl.com/5fqr8g

LSE Says Trading Resumed After Computer Breakdown (Update1)

Anyone know why SU is swooning? Off 4.6% so far.

(No position but interested in one if situation right.)

I've got a question for Vadym,

I have long held a theory that when a whole line of stops gets taken out, such as would have occurred in UAUA today, that it strengthens the stock, shaking out weak hands and putting the stock in the hands of (happy) new owners. I've even observed that it seems NECESSARY for his to occur before a stock is ready to go up. Does price action such as we've witnessed today in UAUA bode well for an upmove coming out of this trade-halt?

shark - UAUA hit my stop limit @$0.05

UAL Confusion Clarification (UAUA)

UAL Corp. (NASDAQ: UAUA) has had its shares halted after what seemed to be a sudden and massive mystery stock tank to most observers. There were erroneous reports circulating that the legacy airline carrier was going to file for Bankruptcy protection which sent shares south this morning. This stock was trading at $12.00 most of the morning and suddenly tanked to under $6.00 before recovering. So far this morning after the halt we have seen reports out of at least two major news sources like CNBC and Dow Jones. Shares were halted at 11:06:57.

If you go back to past trading halts like this on either false news or on false rumors, there is a chance that the intra-day trades will get busted going back to a certain time stamp that is far sooner than the actual price drop. It will be a while longer before the outcome here is known, so if you were one of the traders in the stock today you better be having someone check the status of the trades.

As of yet there has been no statement formally issued in SEC FILINGS nor in a press release that confirms or denies any of this data. Stay tuned. A statement should be out soon from the company.

Jon C. Ogg
September 8, 2008

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/09/ual-confusion-c.html

chicken...you bought UAUA for a nickel?

shark - I'm holding onto the FRE until it triples in a few days!!!

shark - Yep, I must've bought half the airline!!! I'm getting shareholder meeting notices out the ying-yang. Are there any good tailors you might recommend? (just kidding, no, but wouldn't that be a kicker?)

Chickened out on FRE @ $1.10.

Waiting for the $0.50 target.

Miners have turned red

SLW at 9.50 starting to look good?

something i dont get:

spot gold trading around $806, yet the USD index up to new highs at $79 and above.

so spot gold is not even near its recent lows in the $780's while the US dollar is up even more than it was the past few weeks....

a temporary disconnect or is gold starting to decouple at least partially to the USD?

seriously how many shares did you buy at a nickle? I ordinarily wouldn't ask anything so personal but in this case it's purely interesting.

Nevermind on SLW, still got some room to fall.

Re: Bloomberg on UAL

UAL Shares Lose Almost All Value on Incorrect Bankruptcy Report
By Mary Schlangenstein

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- United Airlines parent UAL Corp. lost almost all its market value after an erroneous report that the company had filed for bankruptcy.

Jean Medina, a spokeswoman for the Chicago-based carrier, said in a telephone interview that the report was incorrect. UAL fell to 1 cent, down $12.29, at 11:07 a.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. Trading in UAL's shares was halted.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mary Schlangenstein in Dallas at maryc.s@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 8, 2008 11:25 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aVTYI5K9EDsQ&refer=us

shark, there are two questions in your post. One is about mechanics of capitulatory selling that puts a V-bottom on the chart; let's touch on it at less busy time. Another is how it reflects on UAUA today's show.

IMO, this haas little to do with UAUA. That was not a normal trading; that was ugly performance based on an uncomfirmed rumor or false news item (call it erroneousif you are very benevolent but with your nickname you probably aren't). Those trades from 10:55 to 11:08 are under review and if they are broken, whole incident just gets removed... well, except couple billions of nerve cells burned in a process. If they stand, a lot of people will be hurt. Badly.

shark - I apologize for sucking you in on my weak attempt at humor, I don't own any UAUA. I was trying to say my UAUA sold for $0.05....as a joke.

CP,

Picking up United Airlines gave me the chuckle of the day. I hope it sticks--but don't be surprised if the transaction gets cancelled later by the Exchange. Happened to a buddy of mine in college on an airline stock ten years or so ago.

Any of you casino hounds out there playing the Hurricane game in the Gulf energy stocks or commodities, there's always good hurricane info at Dr. Jeff Masters blog:

I especially like the computer models listed elsewhere on the site.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Ok! I don't get it. Gold is going Red now.. and the USD$ is up 1 buck!!

please explain!!

Re: USD

Us dollar up ONE CENT, or one hundred basis points.

Vadym,

Thanks for your opinion regarding the UAUA drop. You're saying it doesn't have much bearing going forward. I do want to put in a word for those who had their "stink bids" hit. They stuck their necks out during a time of extreme emotional distress. For every person who bought at a dollar say, remember they could easily have wound up holding a worthless stock. They were making a market, so to speak, in a highly distressed market by definition. If the stock HAD gone bankrupt, no one would be clamoring to break these trades. I just think we should acknowledge these swine as being an important part of an "efficient" free market, they just profit infrequently and on the extremes.

Oh and I can be quite benevolent, usually to comely young women bearing furry animals.

NASDAQ : TRADES FROM 10:55AMET TO 11:08AMET WILL STAND

ah yes, of course, gold is down to $803 but the miners are making new lows... again.

barf.

Dr. Cosa, from past experience, you could not expect da boyz to leave the golden alarm bell coonected following the announcement of the massive inflationary bail-out of FNM and FRE - could you?

If silver in the 12 handle is a great buy, how about that 11 handle we just got. It begs the question, what exactly will an extreme sell off that is our entry signal look like?

Bill expects the USD will take a hit from the GSE capitalization, right? I suppose this happens prior to the simultaneous USD/Au bull then.... I've got to review his WIR more closely...

Has anyone else looked into GGN as away to play metals(61%)/energy(37%)?

The fund pays a monthly dividend, currently over 7%.

Seems like a good way to get paid while waiting for gold to skyrocket.

Thoughts?

Re: UAL

Consider, though if you will, that if UAL did file for bankruptcy, there is a major commercial banking crisis and very little liquidity left for airline re-organizations. They would have to go into receivership right away. The rumour was a well timed, accurate shot.

http://news.google.ca/news?hl=en&ned=ca&q=ual.Corp&ie=UTF-8&scoring=n

freddie threatening daily lows...

Today was a prime example of how to no act on weekend or overnight news. Imagine how many people sold their shorts went long the markets and/or financials at the open today.

Last week Bill called the miners action precisely for today and tomorrow. I am still holding GG puts bought last week, which I thought would be toast given the GRH (Greatest Robbery in History).

LEH (near collapse?): talks of LEH splitting into two banks, one good one and another one holding bad debt. Is there such a thing as bad debt for the big banks these days now that the US government will cover their losses?? I wonder what could actually be in the bad LEH bank.

UAUA resumes trading...
@ 11.15

placed Good For Day limit buy order of 1k shares of FRE @ .89

SiO2 - All HB&B are a toxic fungus feeding on the US financial structure, and until they are exfoliated, the US economy will continue to fail. Unfortunately, our political leaders don't realize this, or don't care; take your pick...

Pookie -

HB&B is the core of modern "democratic" "capitalism", not just an appendage which can be "exfoliated" without damage to the entire system. Our political leaders know where their bread is buttered! NO mention of HB&B's excesses at either convention.

"All HB&B are a toxic fungus feeding on the US financial structure, and until they are exfoliated, the US economy will continue to fail. Unfortunately, our political leaders don't realize this, or don't care; take your pick..."

3) Are part of the leeching.

From the WIR:

"You know, there is seldom a day go by when a Talking Head doesn’t make some mocking smart-ass remark like “I’m not smart enough to time the market.” What should be mandatory from regulators whenever some so-called professional makes that remark is to require the TV network to flash on the screen the person’s 1, 3 and 5 year performance record. Then we’ll all see the idiot is not smart enough to do anything."

Priceless, Bill.

Thank you.

If today's gold goes up & US$ goes down, it makes me feel better, because it means free market theory is working.

But the thing goes another way around. Something is against nature. Normally it will lead disaster.

UAUA- back in the air at 10am PDT...can't believe David slept through it...must be living right ;)

apollo7 -

In this scenario it HAS to be the paper ($US) that's unnatural. Because, as kaimu says, gold never lies.

Did today trigger a Hindenburg Omen?

You're absolutely right, Jock. Paul Kedrosky did a word-count combining the speeches of Obama/Biden and McCain/Palin. I can't reproduce the graph her so you will need to hit the url to see it. But the text of his post is below:

http://tinyurl.com/5q8ooa

September 6, 2008
RNC/DNC: Crisis? What Crisis?

What continues to amaze me is the not-so-benign neglect being accorded by politicians to the current financial crisis in the U.S. Granted, it's usually better being ignored by such people; and granted, the current debacle is more complicated than saying "Ken Lay is a bad man". But if you had watched the just-completed Democratic and Republican National Conventions, you wouldn't have known the U.S. is stumbling through the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Nor would you have known, of course, that we're queuing up for a bill that could exceed total Iraq War expenditures.

To prove the point to my own satisfaction, I combined the Palin/McCain acceptance speeches in one block of text, and the Obama/Biden speeches in another. I then set up some keywords to compare across the text blocks. The following summary table shows keywords in the left column, and then respective keywords counts for each party' slate in the appropriate DNC or RNC column. This isn't the usual exercise in cute tag clouds, but an attempt to understand whether important language concerning the current financial crisis penetrated the political radar over the last few weeks.

And it hasn't -- unless, of course, the repeated utterance of the word "God" came in a context more like "Oh God, we're screwed!" than I think it did.

If we have a big sell off at the end of day after a 330+ opening there will be a lot of crushed investors out there tonight. This could then set the stage for the big decline downwards in the coming days or weeks. Just my thoughts as of 1PM for what ever their worth.

QT, would it affect every sector including gold mining & energy stocks?

apollo7,

I don't have a crystal ball, but in big declines, all stocks get pulled down, like toy boats down a bath drain. However, some eventually hang on and stay afloat, like I expect gold and related stocks to eventually do.

QID holders have to be smiling in the face of today's "big rally".

IMHO, QID headed to high 50's +

Disclosure: Long QID and loving it :^)

apollo7

I agree with Blowout Preventer. A sudden drop and everyone will be "puking stocks" so to speak. I would expect some sectors might hold up better than the others.

I myself have positioned myself [ETF:TWM] looking for a big sell off of the Russel 2000. QID is already paying well so far.
[TWM/QID/SKF/SLW ... all long]

Bull Hunter...

Truck load of QID @40.05

:-)

re: SU. Fudge. Bearish engulfing. Stopped out for about 50 cent/share loss.

QT,

Maybe we can go pester Bill for a boat ride when this all plays out. ;^)

Regards

Bull Hunter

I'll buy the plane tickets.

I plan to hold QID till we get close to 2000 as possible. Have you decided already on an exit point?

ALOHA !!

2nd posted ... "shark- it's only been eight minutes...why don't you give it a few days...it's almost like buying a junior miner at this point-> it either pays off big or bites the dust..."

Not even junior miners are this BAD ... from $6 to $0.90 in less than a few hours! That's even WITH our US government guarantee! HA!! Some guarantee ...

Folks

Remember Bill gave a thumbs up on SLW [long]in the WIR. It is now at 9.05 and dropping. Picked up some at 9.15 and now have an order in at 9.00

[Bill Cara note:

Yes, I gave SLW the thumbs up -- if you are long-term market oriented. I also said aggressive, short-term traders could buy the stock following major plunges in prices. I do believe in averaging down as a tactic once I have determined that making an acquisition fits within my longer-term strategy. BTW, after the major sell-off last week, particularly in Silver at the end of the week, margin calls on Mondays should have been expected. That's when bids disappear and market prices really sink. If you like to day-trade markets, you can catch the bottom or close to it.

I have also opined that oil and precious metal prices will sell down in concert, and that Crude Oil will test 100, and probably fall through it and test 80. If that scenario were to happen, then silver (and other precious metals) would likely have more down days. If you do enter at very low prices compared to the past year or two, you must make effective use of stops, raising them after each rally.]

I was wondering if anyone was caught holding skf over the weekend.

re:SLW. Showing bearish engulfing. No position.

ALOHA !!

You cannot consider the future of FRE and FNM without looking closely at who will be running them now. To see that go back to the discourse of 9/5 and look at my last posts for the day. Also see my last post with a chart of the OTHER dollar rally that nobody wants you to know about ...

QT,

I'll play it by ear but would like to get $58 to $60 a share for my investment.

I've been holding QID for quite a while so long/short term capital gains play into the equation.

Regards

"I was wondering if anyone was caught holding skf over the weekend."

Yea! Me!!

So, where's that falling USD I was expecting?

bobbyo

I did... but I'm coming back slowly...should of sold early Friday for a profit. Got burned in the after market hours sell off Friday. Figure there is no way but up now, especially after this morning's big plunge.

It seems to me that a big sell off into the end of the day would be interpreted universally as a vote of non-confidence in the FNM/FRE bailout, and by extension, the Fed and Treasury. By my logic it would be opportune for the PPT to get to work soon to engineer a rise into the close.

Then, tomorrow we are on a new news cycle. If the markets rise into the close today, but tank tomorrow, then tomorrow's action will be associated with some event(s) other than the bailout. It's all about perception management.

Hmm I don't remember any thumbs up. I await the washout.

bsi87 and QT,

I'm going to pick up some SLW, I'm just going to do my ham-handed best to buy it in accordance with Bill's RSI System (using a buy signal on the Daily RSI(7)) . . .

Just sold short some more MER at $27.18. I'll start reading through the daily posts now, and hopefully I'll find an explanation as to why GLD/SLV tanked this morning... A stop limit order was triggered this morning for SWC at $7.2, and now it is $6.60 -- somewhat unpleasant...

On the bright side, my October $7.5 ESLR puts were purchased! Or is it not the bright side anymore?...

kaimu - I don't think any of us seriously think FRE/FNM have a future as long as HB&B are in control. We're just trying to pick the peanuts out of the sweepings, like rats, or mice. Maybe we'll get lucky?

Freddie was robbed! And now he's turned into Mr. Angry Bad stock (will eat your gains like voracious monster).

SteveC

His exact statement was "For goldminers, I like ABX, GG and KGC and silver royalty stock SLW"

I took it as a thumbs up. I stand corrected.

[Bill Cara note:

The context was that we in a late-Bear sell-off, which I think will take the DJIA/NASDAQ to 10000/2000 or say another -10-12% from here, and within that phase, we ought to be looking for candidates for the next Bull. I gave a few thumbs-up as to ones that I would be looking at. I was not recommending their purchase. I use this blog in a more general way, trying to use examples to explain how markets work.]

Hank took out his bazooka and poked Erin Burnett in the eye with it!

Just bought some SLV at $11.90...

Who's running Fannie? -

Interesting that it's NOT a Wall St. guy; it's the former head of TIAA the educators' and non-profit pension organization. And the head of FRE is a former USBank muckety-muck (a bank that DIDN'T go crazy!) and now with the Carlysle group (not well enough-known to rupple feathers)

Maybe Hank thought it might be in bad taste for an HB&B "star" to take direct control.

Just got to reading the posts on UAUA -- what a story! Unfortunately (or fortunately), I sold my remaining UAUA on Friday at $12.30 (which is what I bought it for a couple of weeks ago), after seeing that UAUA couldn't get up the whole week while the oil price was coming down. So even if I were awake during the UAUA demise, I would not have shared the excitement...

TRIN on the open was extremely high, the highest I have ever seen it. TICK never got above 500, whereas I have seen readings of 1000 at extremes. VIX is now positive. This indicates to me that this rally was sold very hard and fear is not abated.

test

Mr Cara

I apologize for not quoting you exactly in my 1:40PM post today. I will be more careful in the future. Thanks for clarifying it for everyone.

re:SLW

BP.

FWIW. SLW hasn't reached a triple RSI buy signal (daily/weekly/monthly) RSI

nor has SLW shown capitulation. RSI<10 on the daily.

(RE: placed Good For Day limit buy order of 1k shares of FRE @ .89)

Stopped out @ .69.

Even a dull knife can cut....

check out the volume in FRE/FNM...they've gone through the equivalent of half the float...

Placed a limit order to sell ten March $7.50 puts of SLW for $.90

Bought some SLW at $9.0. Placed a sell limit order at $9.90, moved up the sell limit order for the next bunch of shares to $10.90.

Bill, 1st - what did Obama say that you took exception to - specifics appreciated.

2nd - doesn't it bother you that in the last 8 Republican lead years, our national debt has almost doubled, the budget deficit has soared, and we're in a baseless war? I don't see how anyone could say that the Republicans have done a good job with our country over the past 8 years. I'm not saying that Obama would do better; who knows? (I'd be happiest if he won and put Ron Paul in as Treasury Secretary!)

dlt

Bought some UXG at $1.09 -- I liked the way UXG stayed at $1.20 to $1.30 range througout the recent fall in commodity prices.

Just bought a little FNM at 0.89, just to have some fun with it.

BD:

One can make a valid argument about the war. Having said that, you have to lay some blame at Congress' feet for deficit spending. THey're all complicit. Only Congress has authorization to spend. The President signs off on it. Don't forget, LBJ began the ripoff by getting his hands on the Social Security money.

US Is "More Communist than China": Jim Rogers

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080908/26603489.html

Investors should not pin their hopes on this year's presidential election for a solution to the problems, as none of the candidates is likely to find one, Rogers said.

"This is a big huge mess and neither one of them has a clue what to do next year. It's going to be a mess."

FT columns on further systemic risks -

Munchau forsees 2 risks: the $6T credit default swap market (highly unlikely) and a US$ crisis (more likely). US$ crisis might result if ECB keeps rates high, while FED lowers under higher US inflation expectations. This might cause "a toxic feedback loop of falling US$, rising US inflation, much higher US$ interest rates, bank failures"etc.

El-Erian, co-ceo of Pimco, writes that US gov't actions still require support from foreign capital; foreign leaders deplore the piecemeal nature of US policy responses to date, and hope for broader, coordinated policy responses to housing markets in US, UK, Spain, etc.

"Over the next few weeks, we will get a lot of information as to whether these conditions are being met ..." If these conditions are met, "the latest levee will prove effective in stopping the deleveraging hurricane, and allowing for cleanup operations to start... If, however, these conditions are not met, the global economy will experience further significant devastation, which will go well beyond housing and the financial sector".

People, this is the co-ceo of the world's largest bond fund organization using rather dire language! Also, former manager of Harvard's $36B endowment, and previous star IMF economist.

Just think what ELSE is occurring over the next few weeks that might just impede thoughtful, coordinated international policy-making: the US ELECTORAL CIRCUS !!!!

And thereafter, while the circus tents are coming down, there won't BE any fresh policy-making blood, or any established new authority to guide policymaking.

Will Phil Gramm ever be up to such a job?

[Bill Cara note:

Is everybody watching the banks crank up the DJIA into the close -- putting more lipstick on the pigs to make you think they are not pigs. BAC +7.0%, C +6.5%, and JPM +4.3% at this point, having strengthened in the afternoon. This is ridiculous. These people are using OPM to window dress their own dire situation. Simply ridiculous. Wait until they report their Quarters, and then we can talk.]

nemo,

yes, I know Congress has authorization to spend, and I agree that Rep. and Dem. bear responsibility, but still Rep. were in control of Congress up until 2 years ago.

Couldn't resist FNM @ $0.75.

Maybe I'll pay the $50 and get some share certificates too...

Nemo will be shocked....

I think he's talkiing about over the long haul, not just recently...both parties are totally at fault.

If *either* had our interests at heart we would be in much better shape, but they BOTH are full of lying crooks.

And as a former Dem my former party should have had the nuts to cut off funding to this life/money/country wasting war.
But instead they sent the message that they are as clueless as the opposing party.

Apparently couldn't resist FRE @ $0.80 either.

Could be throwing $$$ down the Grand Canyon... hope there's a gap up tomorrow.

Hot potato!

So are FRE/FNM worthless?

http://tinyurl.com/6gq3xe

ALOHA !!

Jock ... You are dead wrong about FNM head honcho!! Allison is more than a HB&B guy he is a US FED insider. You have to go back to 9/5 to read my posts on the guys taking over FRE and FNM. The company he headed for 28 years TIAA-CREF is all over the US FEDs website and they participate heavily in US FED policy as advisers and committee members.

"And as a former Dem my former party should have had the nuts to cut off funding to this life/money/country wasting war.
But instead they sent the message that they are as clueless as the opposing party."

Agreed! I've been voting Dem since 2004, but I will not vote for either Rep or Dem in '08.

I feel Ron Paul gaining more support, but as Bill said "where is he?". With the overall market gain today, the general public could be tricked by liberal media into believing Paulson's plan is meeting with success... socializing private debt.

Ron Paul had a "Rally for the Republic" at the same time the RNC was going on. You can read more about it here (videos of the rally are available as well):
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/

He is supposed to be making a major announcement soon. See
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/blog/?p=456

Sometimes the market is absolutely amazing. We all know the banks are B.S. and that the American consumer is in a tight, tight spot.

So what happens with financials and consumer discretionary stocks today? I mean it's great for shorting the last leg down, but it still amazes me.

Kaimu - point taken, BUT Allison's not stepping out of a top HB&B job and right into Fannie.

The public doesn't read history, and nor do the "reporters" at FETV or the politicians, I bet.

From a PR standpoint, Allison's an "outsider" from the non-profit sector.

CSI - Colossus Minerals - DON'T BUY !!!

Colossus just appointed Patrick Anderson, CEO of Aurelian, to its board. I just left a voicemail for Colossus CEO Ari Sussman, stating that I have removed Colossus from consideration by Team Cara.

This is because Anderson sold his investors down he river in accepting Kinross' "stink bid" for Aaurelian. Anderson accepted less than 1/3 the price/oz in situ of comparable recent acquisitions of juniors by seniors.

If any of you feel the same way, please express your disgust at Colossus' new board appointment by phoning (416) 643-7655 and telling the electronic lady you wish to speak to Ari Sussman, CEO.

isn't Paul Volker one of Obama's economic advisors? He must have a clue, right?

re:FNM/FRE.

RSI 7 day are about 20-21 for both. If u wanna flush money down the toilet, at least, look for 1) RSI < 10 and 2) a price higher than the 10 AM price (amateurs trade the first half hour to hour.

Might get a gap up opening but it's not a high % play. Usually take 2-3 days for selling to exhaust itself.

I just joined this board after watching for awhile. I am a realitively new trader 2 years. I have not traded since last March when I liquidated all my positions (not at the top). I have lost all my conviction to trade(gun shy).
Untill recently, I have never visited chat rooms. I did visit a few and they were terrible. Filled with pump and dumpers or really rude obnoxious posters. Then I found this site. Seems to be balanced and even keeled, even when trades seem to be going against people. Hopefully I will find some conviction and contribute something. Thanks to all the posters and Bill for a great site.
Bob

[Bill Cara note:

Hi Bob, welcome aboard.

You know, we might have issues here at times -- usually after I put my foot into it -- but there is a mutual respect, I think, and that makes it work. The fact is that without qualification I respect people until I see they are being troublesome, and then I step in. There are people here who are very accomplished in business, finance, law, education, medicine, and so forth. They come from all over the world. The thing is we don't care what their race, color, gender, sexual orientation, creed, age, accomplishments in life, or whatever. Their biases occasionally show, but that's fine. All we ask is that they be themselves, be civil and try to contibute to the discourse. I'm sure you will fit in. The more you contribute; the more you will take away. It's a great experience. Has been for me too.]

ALOHA !!

THIS SAYS IT ALL ... FROM 9/5:

Now this bit from the Cunning Realist who has a way of summing things up and giving some historical perspective. WOW ... check out that 2008 Republican platform on free markets! IS THAT EVER A JOKE! I feel like this is the USSR and that Republican platform statement is in PRAVDA!

WOW look at what comrades Bush and Cheney have to say about free markets! HA!!!

READ ON:
Sunday, September 07, 2008

My Sagacious Barber

We do not support government bailouts of private institutions. Government interference in the markets exacerbates problems in the marketplace and causes the free market to take longer to correct itself. We believe in the free market as the best tool to sustained prosperity and opportunity for all.

-Republican Party Platform, 2008

"Laws shouldn't bail out lenders. Laws shouldn't help speculators."

-President Bush 5/19/08

"The fact is, the markets work, and they are working. And people - some of the big companies obviously - have taken risks. Risk means risk. And there's an upside as well as a downside in some of the choices they've made. We have to be careful not to have this set of developments lead us to significantly expand the role of government in ways that may do damage long-term for the economy. We don't want to interfere with the basic, fundamental working of the markets."

-Dick Cheney 11/26/07

"What exactly is our opponent's plan? What does he actually seek to accomplish, after he's done turning back the waters and healing the planet? The answer is to make government bigger"...

-Sarah Palin, Republican National Convention

While I was sitting in his chair a couple of weeks ago, my barber leaned close and said he had a stock tip for me. He said he had just bought some Fannie Mae. When I told him I didn't think that was such a great idea, he scoffed at my pessimism, confidently claiming that "the government will never let it go under." He grew up in Russia during the 1970's, so he knows a good government guarantee when he sees one. And as of Friday he was up nicely on his Fannie stock.

Unless he cashed out already, we'll see what happens to his investment this week. The news about the taxpayer takeover of Fannie and Freddie is both momentous and unsurprising. To the extent it's the latter, I don't have much more to say that I haven't said before. In one sense, the timing is outrageous: just before an election, and right after an inconveniently bad week for the stock market. But for fans of accountability, the timing is good. Far better now than after Inauguration Day. This way, at least the responsibility is clear, and the Kudlows of the world won't be able to spend the next few decades blaming the Democrats. In a perfect world, any political party that presided over this sort of debacle would wander in the wilderness for years or be permanently discredited. Instead, the incumbent party finds itself within a few percentage points of being rewarded with a third term in the White House. If Americans decide to give it that third term, they'll deserve everything they get -- not only financially but, as I've said before, in terms of national security/physical safety.

Who will pay for this? Nominally, every taxpayer. But in real terms and disproportionately, the prudent will pay via inflation. Did you sit patiently on the sidelines during the past few years while building your savings? The unstated message of these bailouts and interventions is as damaging as it is clear: participate in the next bubble. Buy into the "ownership society." (The cheapening of that important concept has been one of the worst big-picture effects of this era.) You're prudent at your own risk, because when the bubble pops you'll be forced to participate whether you like it or not. If people really understood what was going on here -- essentially a system of "soft slavery" in which an ever-increasing amount of one's daily labor subsidizes Wall Street and the speculator class via inflation and the socialization of risk -- they'd be in the street. Of course very few do understand it, which is what policymakers count on.

In the long run, the best way to protect yourself from this madness is to shun the U.S. dollar in favor of other currencies and gold. The nations that have had the gall to do that during the past few years -- Russia, Venezuela, and Iran among others -- constitute an existential threat to Bailout Nation. How much longer can we allow that? It's not too hard to see where all this is going, is it?END

Note that TLT gapped down at the open but then rose through the day and closed higher. Apparently, the bond traders did not believe today's media propaganda that everything is going to be great in the financial world after this bailout. Let's see if the stocks catch up with the sentiment of the wiser bond traders tomorrow (and sell off).

Which gold stock now >US$1B market cap has the highest 10 year return? -

Tip of the hat to the top 2; wag of the finger to the bottom 8!

AEM +16x
GG +14.5x
BVN +8.5x
RGLD +7.5x
NEM +1.9x
KGC +1.5x
HMY +1.4x
GFI +1.3x
ABX +1.3x
LIHR +0.7x
AU +0.4x
AUY -0.2

NEM (somewhat of a different company than 10 years ago) returned only 190%; KGC 150%, ABX 130%, Cramer's favorite AUY lost 20%. (Only companies with a full 10 year history, ending with mkt. cap. >$1B are included.)

Gold stocks, PS:

Only US-listed stocks are reviewed.

Re: AUY

Much as AUY has suffered losses in the recent few months, it used to be a market darling when copper prices were set to decline. But copper prices had advanced above the price of its copper hedges, so by accounting rules, its balance sheet was pretty bad. But now that copper prices are in a decline, then I assume that AUY's numbers will look much better. Barrick hedged its copper production as well.

Re: TIF

Tiffany's reports growth outside the USA:

http://tinyurl.com/63oqbr

Looks like now.. Fannie was MUGGED by the FED!! They OBJECTED to the take over!!! The FED said IF they turned this down.. they would be subject to consumer/share holder law suits.

Share holders.. i guess will NOT be able to sue the FED over this. UNBELIEVABLE!!!

Re: Euro Zone

Looks like a sell-off in the short term bonds in Euros:

http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/yc/html/index.en.html

Short term rates are going higher, and a declining currency says that the Eurozone has growth in the cards. This is the reverse of expectations.

Kaimu - GREAT piece from the Cunning Linguist!

BD and Craig:

Thank you Craig. As I will repeat-I'm not particularly political based on my "cow theory" of politicians. I realize the Reps were in charge, which is why I referenced Baines all the way back. What's funny about one party being in charge though, the opposition party can often, parliamentary-wise, gum up the works to get their way, at least partially.

Actually guys, if I decide to vote. (It's in the middle of hunting season ya' know.) I'm voting for Ron Paul (write-in)

The question regarding Volcker as an advisor to Obama: Is he just a tit on a bull?

What if LEH and MER got in trouble tomorrow?
Do they have anything left to bail out LEH/MER?
Will they let market take care of LEH/MER

brought oebvq 10 at 15.00

Bill:

I don't think they are putting lipstick on pigs,

but it is amazing that they can make crap look like lipstick now a days.. Most be one of those miracles of science things.

I have to admit that just watching it all, is pretty amazing. I am just glad I was wrong about end of august being the point of up-heaving...or down heaving or what ever disaster you want to plug in: ____________:

But it seems quite a few people are heaving out that amazing lipstick lately for the media...

Doesn't matter. I literally turned and tuned it all off now, and just teaching retreats... I just check in here for news once and a while, one of the few reliable spots of sanity left in the financial world.

But until it all perks (or busts) better to just concentrate on family. After all when it does all shift: family is what will pull it all through during any rougher times.

Of course there's plenty "left" to bail out LEH and MER. Your great-grandchildren will be paying for these bailouts 45 years from now, but for now, there's plenty of bailout for everybody. Now AFTER the election, maybe another story.

Wells Fargo & Co, the fifth-largest U.S. bank, said on Monday it expects to take a third-quarter charge related to $480 million of preferred stock investments in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The bank said the portfolio of securities it holds for sale includes Fannie preferred stock for which it paid $336 million and Freddie preferred stock for which it paid $144 million.

It said the preferred stock now trades at 5 percent to 10 percent of face value, suggesting that the non-cash charge could exceed $400 million based on current market prices, if Wells Fargo bought the stock at close to face value.

http://tinyurl.com/5rq78o
Body Parts are starting to float to the surface. Still riding SKF.

bdtobias- just to set the record straight, reference your 312pm post- you probably meant to direct your comments to someone else, as i don't recall posting any political commentary today...

Kaimu,

I think the parties have left us wandering in the wilderness. Look at the low quality candidates we get to chose from.

Members of both parties have far more in common with each other and with CEOs than with us ordinary citizens. Take a look at the health care, pay packages, retirement and, if needed a back lobbying job when not reelected.

Even if forced out of office for poor performance or hankie pankie, they keep their benefits and bonuses.

All this election rhetoric is just a diversion like the repeated investigations and task forces — signifying nothng and allowing them to ignore the genuine problems.

bdt- forget it...i need another handle..

uaua -- what a ride!!!

Interesting media news:

http://tinyurl.com/5dftle

two politically incendiary hosts, Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews yanked...

It's ok to attack the democrats, but don't report negatively against the...beeep...

funny stuff, very human, very controlled.

back to ignoring the news for me...

I hate to post bout politics, but will take a chance
We all blame political party and politician for the entire problem going on in financial market
But, why can’t we look in mirror and say to our self that what we see is the problem
We are the one who elected them

Folks, I know it's easy to claim there is no difference between parties. It's fashionable even (and one that is forcefully promulgated by McCain supporters). But really, can anyone truly claim after eight years of a corrupt and incompetent Republican administration that Obama will be the same as McCain in ways that truly matter?

The differences are huge.

This "they're both the same" nonsense is ideally suited to those who want to diminish the damage done by Bush and his cohorts.

kaimu- you're right, i don't want to insult the junior miners...my FRE is a lottery ticket...

2nd
time to get in some stock
brought 500 SLW at 8.93 now I have 1000
will get in ESLR tomorrow
also brought 200 skf at 102

To all but Vinod: skip longer non financial post

Vinod: to the statement

We are the one who elected them

That's up for debate ;)

Even if you ignore the various techniques of voter control, hackable machines, and a long list of documented voting issues. I suspect "freedom" of elections is very much open to debate for quite a few of the presidents.

Here we sit in a system, rigged, directed and very much controlled at levels of detail most of us cannot even fathom. I know it's beyond what I can track and I studied the subject of Japanese shadow governments for years when I was in college.

I don't have answers for you , only a poem

what might/have be/en
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Mixing in the mind,
life like fantasies:
dreaming of what might have been.
In so many different ways
at so many different times,
looking to the past, clearly seen -are-
countless choices, countless possibilities

--- Yet, only one happens. ---

Flip perspective.

Looking to the future.
Looking towards
Fortune tellers, Astrological charts and Soothsayers
As if
only one choice
only one possibility
existed

Cruxes and puzzles
Looking to the past, desiring so many changes.
While
Looking to the future, wishing only one option.

In this perspective
So many ways, So many people
Living backwards.

Simpler just swirling
Watching, embracing, acting out
As leaves tumbling to the wind, as they may
As our lives: happen regardlessly
mixing with the wind

-------------------------------------

I guess what I am saying, you have to act in best faith for what you feel is true towards your own heart and purpose. But not to get trapped in what moght be, have beens or the larger games rigged.

Instead focus on what we are here and now and we simply vote in each action, each breath, each transaction financial or not : ignoring everything else since quite honestly its all just BS which becomes compost for us to work out of... What isn't BS is living your life well, every day in every moment as you can. No one can take that away from any one of us.

That is what most people seem to forget when getting lost in the rage of the current corruption and rigged systems... doing that just feeds the rigged game. Our new political system has evolved and is now designed and expects that style of response.

Very interesting actually and one side effect of supposedly having all the information at our beck and call I suspect.

Number2son,
When it gets right down to it, it all depends on which party will take the least amount of money out of ones wallet. For business owners like me, McCain works for me. I don't want Obama's free wheeling spending plans sucking my profits away. It all sounds good; the universal health and all, but in the end it will crash and burn just like the Hillary plan did back in the early 90's. I know one can point out the deficit that Bush put us in with his religious war and its cost, but I write that mistake off as an anolomy that won't be repeated in future memory by either party. People vote their wallet, not their conscience.

number2son -

I intend to support the candidate who best demonstrates his/her comprehension of what's really wrong with America (from my perspective and to my satisfaction) and what he/she plans (specifically) to do about it.

Neither Republican or Democratic candidate have scratched the surface IMO.

I hope you can understand and support that position...

UAUA wild ride is right.

I thought something was wrong when I noticed the drop of 50% so I put out and order for 100 shares at market. It filled at 8.98. Minutes later it's showing for a penny and rumors of bankruptcy.

I had to leave the office so I put in a limit to sell at 9.98. All I could do was hope the rumors were false or I was out a quick $800. I called the office from the golf course and had a co-worker check my sell order. It had filled already before I had a chance to raise it.

This game does keep you on your toes. At least I got some lunch money out of it.

vinod- power corrupts, and it's the rare person who is immune (the one politician that comes to mind as having escaped mostly unscathed would be carter)...in addition, the political process itself is corrupt- it's almost impossible to get someone who thinks and acts independently of the entrenched system elected...i can only see real change arising from some kind of grass roots movement-> but once my thinking gets started down that path, it's easy to start thinking in terms of uprooting existing institutions and before you know it, i'm driving over the same ground they've mapped out for centuries, be it socialism, communism, the great leap forward, the new deal, the cultural revolution...the new boss may not be exactly the same as the old boss- the problem is they all get corrupted, and let's face, a good percentage of the population either doesn't care or actively participates in the process to their own advantage...

number2son:
This "they're both the same" nonsense is part of that game to disempower voters , all voters both republican, democratic and independent.

They are not the same, each candidate clearly has their own agenda, and will push certain items forward.

Yet that they are all the same: since all the candiates have been approved and supported by a corrupted fincial power base.

which means neither candidate will push towards social equity that Bill talks about on this site.

Just my own opinion, Do your own Due diligence. And then just vote for the person who matches most to what you care for. Even if it is Ron Paul.

Myself. I will probably write in Shark and 2nd ave for a write in vote.

just to shake things up... ;)

I won't vote actually this year, I moved around so much and was "homeless" such joke and label we place on people, as if you can ever be homeless if being true to yourself... so I can't vote any more since i stopped playing the games and missed the deadline to re-establish residency anyway... so it goes. So in reality I voted for myself and family in the end. It was more important to find a place where I fully wanted to be present than worry about other issues.

Vote by what feels right, and you will be surprised that often times the outcome is much better than expected :) since the action can be so different than what others tell you that action should be!

schleppy- congrats on the trade (and on having a co-worker you can trust that much)...;)

Thanks 2nd.....better lucky than good sometimes.

Casey,
You were a buddhist monk in an earlier life,...right??
Good perspectives to have on life and such.

Casey Kochmer
Thanks for beautful poem
My wife,son and daugher all like it

our may not be a good political system but no one has better?

I think our political system is what works for us and what works for now. I firmly believe the more advanced/evolved we get, the more "socialist" our politics will get. It's just the nature of things.

We are in the pre-teen years of human civilization so the capitalist idea works for us.

uaua down from $11.75 to $4 in just 5 minutes time right before 11.00 am east coast time, then to $3 and back up. What a move!

vinod- SLW at 8.93? a few weeks ago i wouldn't have believed it...

only one trade for me today...my youngest is now the proud owner of 2000 shares of FRE @ 1.27...if they take this down to zero, i will of course replace every penny...if it soars to 60 again in ten years, he'll have a few bucks to spend as he wishes...

2nd
I wanted to buy FNM/FRE 5000 each around $1
but got cold feet and stock did went to $2
but as you know closed unde one

Rocksfall- LOL, can't wait to see the teenage years start to unfold...

vinod- i was looking at today's options volumes for FRE and FMN...some pretty wild bets on FNM...

2nd,
What are your thoughts on ESLR at 7.50. I had an order in on 1K @ 7.35 today but I pulled it when it was at 7.45. It felt like a falling knife and who wins catching them? SLW seems like the better trade in regards to risk/reward, no?

Rocksfall: I teach Taoism in this life ;) as my vocation

Your comment about pre-teen years reminds me of the book Accelerando by charles Stross (Be warned it's cyber punk but it paints a very interesting idea of a future economic society... but if you like sci fi, it's fresh and its ideas are very on edge in some respects)

vinod: you are welcomed.

not sure if our's is the best system, really its all relative and All politics simply just "are" in my mind...

in the end we must make our own politics true, and that only happens if we live to "our own" actions rather than the drum beat of media and others... Rather than choose designer labels to live as... really seriously what is a liberal, republican, independent etc : all just labels to reduce peoples actions to controllable mass action.

think about it for a moment

loose the label and gain person freedom a a result. (Rocksfall: now that's Taoism in action!)

stktrader- at the moment i'm still in trading mode, and i think there are better set-ups right now...SLW is one of them...when the market comes out of its 'stop making sense' phase, i'll start thinking about investing again, and ESLR will be in the portfolio...

Graphic look at the carnage in global equity markets - Only Canada held up better than the US!

http://tinyurl.com/58tatd

5000 freddies would have been a nice ballsy bet. Wish we'd split the difference and each done 2500!

Re. above post on carnage in global markets, those numbers are misleading without taking into consideration exchange rates. That site that does even mention this fact.

Quite possibly the best posting I have seen yet regarding the current mess in the derivatives markets of mass destruction. This is just like reading a coles notes of today's postings.

Elaine must read this blog. Mentions Bill's gnomes & UAUA. (is that HAHA in Chinese?)

The Banking Gnome's Son, The Derivatives Beast
Elaine Meinel Supkis

"The Goddess of Inflation was pissed off at the high interest rates. This was raining on her parade, big time. But the gnome banker was still around, despite the side entrance to her cave being filled in.

Through the small hole, she handed him her baby. 'Feed him twice as much each year as the year before and he will grow to immense size. He will then rescue me from this cave!' she instructed the crying gnome. So the banking gnome took this little monster home and secretly fed it. Now, it is so big, it can't be ignored anymore. And it is determined to free its mother from any prison we lock her in."

http://tinyurl.com/57drnm

I'm waiting for the movie to come out.

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is set to be turned on Wednesday. Either prepare for a catapulting of science knowledge or...pffft.
Could make this credit crisis seem like a full body swedish massage on a beach in Turks and Caicos

http://www.engadget.com/2008/09/08/cerns-lhc-first-beam-to-be-broadcast-live-on-wednesday/

...apologize if I bored you all

The lawsuits have started...

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Coughlin Stoia Geller Rudman & Robbins LLP (“Coughlin Stoia”) (http://www.csgrr.com/cases/fanniemaeassoc/) today announced that a class action has been commenced in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York on behalf of purchasers of Federal National Mortgage Association (“Fannie Mae”) (NYSE:FNM - News) publicly traded securities during the period between November 16, 2007 and September 5, 2008, inclusive (the “Class Period”).

Asian stocks down big now. Could it be that the powers that be shot their last bullet and the markets didn't respond positively?

shark - I bought 640 rolls of FRE today.

moab - I don't think that was a fully automatic Bazooka Paulson had in his pocket.

shark,

45 years from now?

Come one now, since when did the US government issue 45 year bonds? haha...

better to print and take on as much debt as possible now with negative real rates.... who knows maybe, just maybe these out of control bail outs will actually present a profit to the Treasury department (not the US tax payer).

next bailout better not be autos....

IMO the last US auto company will have the last american made car (made in the USA, not Canada or Mexico) roll off a detroit assembly line in the summer of 2011. almost the 100 year anniversary of the model t making full steam of product. It will be a great run but nevertheless the lack of sacrifice and the unearned feeling of entitlement will doom those that have a "weak" belief what is best.

In the next few months my friends, we (north america) will about to embark on a new path of policy and change. Hopefully we can come together and make those sacrifices and believe that we can accomplish anything. That will only happen if we work together.

Placing a buy to cover limit order on 1/2 of my MER at 25.80 (which I shorted at $26.80 and then 27.18) and on the other 1/2 at $24.80 (which I shorted at 26.20). The market futures are currently negative, so who knows -- we might get a weak open that will hit these limits...

John Hussman (http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc080908.htm) has provided an interesting chart comparing the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the current business cycle to that of the past business cycles. If this business cycle evolves as the previous ones did, then the unemployment rate should rise to about 7% in the next 6-8 months. Given the negative reaction we got last week to the unemployment at 6.1%, the future for stock indices does not look pretty...

Just placed a sell short order for RF, stop at $12, limit at $11.50.

Bill, I voted for W twice (as you stated you would have), I gave him the benefit of the doubt before the Iraq invasion — thinking he must have access to info not generally known. He has had business successes and his Harvard MBA — true, but I never have thought him to be very bright.
His launch into oil is probably due to his father's connections, his grade was 76 (his opponent's 75) he may have cheated to get that or had strings pulled (look at his military attendance record — anyone else would have been sent to 45 days active duty for 3 AMOLs.)
Trust is a delicate asset.
We have had an abysmal string of candidate choices for some time around here. I have serious doubts that any form of representative government can deal with the complexities of leadership in an age when we are swamped with threats and info of questionable value both coming at warp speed.

FRE $0.97 premarket
FNM $0.87 premarket

c'mon red 23!

Casey Kochmer,

Thank you for your insightful commentary and poem.

A long time friend and business associate died Saturday. He was an excellent, honest business man, mentor to many, philanthropist, active volunteer with his time, talents and his money. His obit ran over two full columns listing much of what I list here (much more will remain anonymous).

For the past three years he suffered a debilitating brain disease which gradually rendered him unable to speak or do anything for himself.

Live today and each day the best you can. Life is short, make it sweet.

Thanks again.

gold down about 15 bucks right now.

The only responsible attitude for a citizen these days is to assume that everyone is lying to you and that their bought and paid for press, papers or radio minions will reinforce their propaganda talking points in order to reach their goal, which if it requires such efforts, will NOT be the needs of the people. If you buy into it without examination then it is your fault.

There was plenty of real information available to anyone wanting to examine the BS of GW and his lyng minions.

If you bought into it, it's because you wanted to believe it or you wanted to disbelieve the opposing view. It's important that we accept responsibility for our actions.

Someone arguing *for* war MUST be held to the higher standard. You know there's someting horribly wrong when you have normally *sort of* sane people saying "give war a chance". If you accepted that then what is there to say?

That's why I was and am critical of those buying into Sarah Palin so soon without taking the time to examine her and her record more fully.

I think the key to the problem is "I gave him the benefit of the doubt".

There's your sign.....

None of these people deserves any benefit of any doubt, they must be brought to task, front and center, and made to *prove* their assertions and claims, or they MUST be rejected.

As citizens we have to make the time to inform ourselves and to take politicians to task in order to act responsibly.

Grym, Very sorry to hear about your friend. Sadly I can relate to the situation as my mom is going through the same thing.

BTW, Kaimu says it more succinctly:

"Question Authority".