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August 20, 2008
Daily Report for Wed, Aug 20, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Equity markets started the session weak in NY, had a bit of a pop from noon to 2pm, then slid into a close, with Producer Price Inflation and housing data driving share prices lower. The Financials (XLF -2.9%) and Consumer Discretionaries (XLY -1.9%) led the market lower, while the Energy (XLE +3.6%) and Utility (+0.5%) sectors were strongest.
Housing starts were the lowest since the early 90's and the headline number for PPI was the highest since the early 80's. Fannie and Freddie concerns continued.
Today, the weekly energy inventory report is a potential market mover.
Yesterday, the DJIA (-130.84 -1.14% to 11348.55), S&P 500 (-11.91 -0.93% to 1266.69), and NASDAQ Composite (-32.62 -1.35% to 2384.36) all tanked again.
In Canada, the Toronto Exchange Composite suffered a loss of -0.42% to 13063.85, while the Venture Board dropped -1.14% to 1901.73.
Yesterday the $GOLD gained +$11.10 to 816.80 after lifting +$13.60 on Monday. That helped push the Goldminers up ($XAU +2.3%). Crude Oil ($WTIC gained +$1.65/bbl to 114.54) also lifted, perhaps because of the high PPI numbers, which pushed the $USD down -0.47% to 76.74 and the Euro/USD up +0.54% to 1.4783. This helped the NatGas ($XNG +3.5%) and Oil Services ($OSX +3.1%) to make gains.
Of the extreme Cara 100 stocks, the big gainers were commodity plays again, led by the Canadians Suncor (SU +6.1%), Silver Wheaton (SLW +4.6%) and Goldcorp (GG +4.5%). PetroBrazil (PBR +4.0%) was another winner. The losers were Brunswick (BC -6.0%), and Russia’s telecoms Vimpel-Communications (VIP -5.5%) and Mobile TeleSystems (MBT -5.5%) as well as SanDisk again (SNDK -4.1%).
The long bond ($USB) lost -0.29% to 117.58 as yields lifted following the PPI data release. The T-Bill yield is now at 1.765.
Earlier today, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were stronger, particularly Shanghai: Australia’s All Ords index (up +1.336% to 4997.5); Shanghai (+7.63% to 2523.28); Hong Kong (+2.18% to 20931.26); and India’s Sensex (+0.92% to 14678.23). Japan’s Nikkei (-0.10% to 12851.69) was basically flat.
This morning, the $USD (77.13) and Euro/USD (1.4702) shows a weaker USD than yesterday morning due to the bad US economic data yesterday, but a firming up this morning. Crude Oil futures have gained +0.63/bbl to 115.17 as at 7:36am ET.
The DJIA futures at 7:56am ET are at 11401, up +45. This confirms the stronger markets in Europe in the past hour.
At about 8:29am ET in Europe, markets are lifting: the French CAC is up +0.66%; the German DAX +0.49%; and the UK FTSE +1.01% from yesterday’s close.
Spot gold, palladium, platinum and silver at 8:07am ET are, compared to prices at the same time yesterday and Monday morning at this time (in brackets): 814.92 (789.85 and 791.40), 282 (272 and 278), 1352 (1323 and 1373), and 13.30 (12.865 and 13.06). The prices were a bit softer overnight, but picked up just before 6am.
Comments & Outlook
I really hope that you had a chance to read yesterday’s comments where I repeated the currency market views of Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Jen. Despite the continuing inflation data in the US, there has been a sea change in the USD. That’s due to the worse situation for inflation in Europe and elsewhere.
We are going to see a duel between currencies fighting to all their destruction against a storehouse of value like Gold. The cycle bottom work for gold has begun this week. There will likely be more downward pressure as oil prices continue to come off and the $USD firm up, but at some point the Gold price and the $USD will move higher in lockstep, I believe.
Today, watch for the weekly US Energy inventory report to come out at 10:35am ET. That report showed too low an inventory estimate a week ago I believe, and so the averaging might mean a higher one today, which, if true, would mean a break down in the rising oil prices, and a strengthening of the $USD (and weakening of precious metals prices).
Finally, I see that Venezuela has taken control of cement plants, as previously threatened.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 12: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 20, 2008 08:24:55 AM | Category: Daily Report








