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August 20, 2008

Daily Report for Wed, Aug 20, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Equity markets started the session weak in NY, had a bit of a pop from noon to 2pm, then slid into a close, with Producer Price Inflation and housing data driving share prices lower. The Financials (XLF -2.9%) and Consumer Discretionaries (XLY -1.9%) led the market lower, while the Energy (XLE +3.6%) and Utility (+0.5%) sectors were strongest.

Housing starts were the lowest since the early 90's and the headline number for PPI was the highest since the early 80's. Fannie and Freddie concerns continued.

Today, the weekly energy inventory report is a potential market mover.

Yesterday, the DJIA (-130.84 -1.14% to 11348.55), S&P 500 (-11.91 -0.93% to 1266.69), and NASDAQ Composite (-32.62 -1.35% to 2384.36) all tanked again.

In Canada, the Toronto Exchange Composite suffered a loss of -0.42% to 13063.85, while the Venture Board dropped -1.14% to 1901.73.

Yesterday the $GOLD gained +$11.10 to 816.80 after lifting +$13.60 on Monday. That helped push the Goldminers up ($XAU +2.3%). Crude Oil ($WTIC gained +$1.65/bbl to 114.54) also lifted, perhaps because of the high PPI numbers, which pushed the $USD down -0.47% to 76.74 and the Euro/USD up +0.54% to 1.4783. This helped the NatGas ($XNG +3.5%) and Oil Services ($OSX +3.1%) to make gains.

Of the extreme Cara 100 stocks, the big gainers were commodity plays again, led by the Canadians Suncor (SU +6.1%), Silver Wheaton (SLW +4.6%) and Goldcorp (GG +4.5%). PetroBrazil (PBR +4.0%) was another winner. The losers were Brunswick (BC -6.0%), and Russia’s telecoms Vimpel-Communications (VIP -5.5%) and Mobile TeleSystems (MBT -5.5%) as well as SanDisk again (SNDK -4.1%).

The long bond ($USB) lost -0.29% to 117.58 as yields lifted following the PPI data release. The T-Bill yield is now at 1.765.

Earlier today, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were stronger, particularly Shanghai: Australia’s All Ords index (up +1.336% to 4997.5); Shanghai (+7.63% to 2523.28); Hong Kong (+2.18% to 20931.26); and India’s Sensex (+0.92% to 14678.23). Japan’s Nikkei (-0.10% to 12851.69) was basically flat.

This morning, the $USD (77.13) and Euro/USD (1.4702) shows a weaker USD than yesterday morning due to the bad US economic data yesterday, but a firming up this morning. Crude Oil futures have gained +0.63/bbl to 115.17 as at 7:36am ET.

The DJIA futures at 7:56am ET are at 11401, up +45. This confirms the stronger markets in Europe in the past hour.

At about 8:29am ET in Europe, markets are lifting: the French CAC is up +0.66%; the German DAX +0.49%; and the UK FTSE +1.01% from yesterday’s close.

Spot gold, palladium, platinum and silver at 8:07am ET are, compared to prices at the same time yesterday and Monday morning at this time (in brackets): 814.92 (789.85 and 791.40), 282 (272 and 278), 1352 (1323 and 1373), and 13.30 (12.865 and 13.06). The prices were a bit softer overnight, but picked up just before 6am.


Comments & Outlook

I really hope that you had a chance to read yesterday’s comments where I repeated the currency market views of Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Jen. Despite the continuing inflation data in the US, there has been a sea change in the USD. That’s due to the worse situation for inflation in Europe and elsewhere.

We are going to see a duel between currencies fighting to all their destruction against a storehouse of value like Gold. The cycle bottom work for gold has begun this week. There will likely be more downward pressure as oil prices continue to come off and the $USD firm up, but at some point the Gold price and the $USD will move higher in lockstep, I believe.

Today, watch for the weekly US Energy inventory report to come out at 10:35am ET. That report showed too low an inventory estimate a week ago I believe, and so the averaging might mean a higher one today, which, if true, would mean a break down in the rising oil prices, and a strengthening of the $USD (and weakening of precious metals prices).

Finally, I see that Venezuela has taken control of cement plants, as previously threatened.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 12: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 12: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 20, 2008 08:24:55 AM | Category: Daily Report