Hi Bill,
as per the website I have pointed to a few days ago, I am sorry, I have no affiliation whatsoever with the author, it just looked like a really special site to check out.

best,
robert

[Bll Cara note: Terrific. My point stands that if someone here who has published a thousand items in the Discourse says he/she discovered an interesting site, all of us are interested; but if a new member immediately introduces a new site, the red flags go up. That's all. In fact, I don't mind at all if new members point us to new sites--if at the same time they say they are independent, objective and unaffiliated. Thanks, robber. Now we won't be thinking you came here to steal something. :-)]

Bank profits down 97% according to NY State tax revenues. Hmmm, don't see much about that in the statements of some of CEO's.

"... [NY Gov] Paterson used one particular statistic to illustrate the depths of the crisis. In June of last year, the state's 16 largest banks paid about $173 million in taxes into the state treasury. This June, those same banks paid in $5 million -- a 97 percent decrease. ..."
http://tinyurl.com/5dbek7

Some reports are being made that conseration is being given to selling the Brooklyn Bridge - now that's a new thought.

[Bill Cara note: In the same vein, yesterday John Thain of Merrill Lynch was interviewed by CNBC. We had been led to believe that Thain would tell us something. Instead he preened for Ms Bariromo. Following that sickness-inducing dialogue, CNBC followed up with more promo for Merrill by interviewing their vice-chairman, who joked that he found Maria tough on his CEO. When does the nonsense stop. Did anybody hear the supposedly astute Ms Bartiromo ask John Thain why the current market cap is much less than the mega-billions that company has raised in the past several months? Where has that new capital gone? Let's just say that the shareholders who were into Merrill Lynch at the start of this year are wiped out. Thain also said that Merrill would continue to pay the dividend "because employees count on it". This guy should be on Leno. I think his employees want to know why Thain is returning much needed capital to shareholders (who are not getting any return on capital when they receive that dividend). The new shareholders are the beneficiaries, and that was the cost of the financing. Dollar in; part of that dollar out; nothing's changed. Certainly nothing's changed in that Thain still takes the world for idiots.

Another beef I have with these financial manipulators. Yesterday came news that one of them paid the SEC a fine of $850 million related to fraud. Who went to prison? I mean, if you or I commit an $850 fraud--forget the millions--we are likely going to see jail time.

At the end of the day, people like Thain, Paulson and colleagues still take us for suckers.]

"We are in a market where the share prices of junior exploration companies are in a free fall. I am confident this trend will reverse and when it does I believe the move to the upside will be rapid. The key factors for higher prices will be increasing merger and acquisition activity led by well financed producers, higher precious metals prices and a big discovery. Once investors believe they can make money buying junior explorers, such as US Gold, the share prices should start moving higher. I believe this summer represents a great buying opportunity," stated Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO of US Gold.

http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release.do?id=886488&sourceType=3

[Bill Cara note: I agree with Rob McEwen's comments, but don't get too carried away. There hasn't been a big discovery in a few years; it could take a few months or more for commodity prices to rally to a point that promoters and speculators return; and it takes months for majors to hunt down the juniors and complete these deals. Goldcorp just agreed to buy Goldeagle, but the shares of GG/G have plummeted since. so, my point is that there needs to be a change of psychology, which takes time. The massive selling started at the beginning of July. Xstrata (LSE:XTA) just offered $10 billion+ for Lonmin, so the deals are flowing, but the psychology has not turned north, yet. You need to see it in the prices across the board for the fundamentally solid juniors, in Canada and Australia markets first.]

saw some edge commentaries yesterday.

Remember the closer we get to this system finally breaking. The more on edge we will become as we reflect this chaos.

Patience. Now patience is more key! Otherwise it will force out statements which don't help or trades which are too rash.

Its not just here, I have been watching this all around our culture amplify out right now. It's why the cops are so on edge and lashing out, its why I got held over in a police car and about to be shipped to jail the other day for literally nothing... Everyone is on edge in reflection of the social turnover. Don't let it control you by reflection, learn and get stronger instead.

Don't take it personally, take it in as a lesson right now

August 6, 1945, A sad day for humanity

the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and of Nagasaki three days later

Around two hundred thousand persons were killed in the attacks and through radiation poisoning; the vast majority were civilians, including several thousand Korean workers, twelve U.S. Navy fliers incarcerated in a Hiroshima jail were also among the dead

http://www.lewrockwell.com/raico/raico22.html

----------------------------------------
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

When 181 nations signed the 1968 NPT, they thought they were taking the first step toward the abolition of nuclear weapons. In short, they took the treaty seriously. Article VI of the NPT, for instance, states: "Each of the parties to the treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measure relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international controls."

The smaller countries agreed to forgo nuclear weapons only because the nuclear powers agreed to scrap theirs and, further, disarm their conventional forces. Instead, the Big Five increased the number of warheads in their arsenals and raised their military budgets. Finally, when they threatened non-nuclear countries with nuclear weapons, they were violating a 1978 addendum to the NPT (which was reaffirmed in 1995).

President George W. Bush used such threats against Iraq, Syria, and the Sudan, and in 2006, former French President Jacques Chirac warned "states who would use terrorist means against us" risk a "conventional" response, but "it could also be of a different kind."

http://tinyurl.com/5jtjnb
----------------------------

A World Free of Nuclear Weapons: An Interview With Nuclear Threat Initiative Co-Chairman Sam Nunn

The U.S. Senate, Republicans blocked U.S. ratification of the comprehensive test ban treaty. Pointing to the failure of the nuclear powers to fulfill their disarmament pledges, India and Pakistan exploded their first nuclear weapons, while North Korea moved forward with its own nuclear program. Most dramatically, the new administration of George W. Bush withdrew the United States from the ABM treaty, ended U.S. participation in nuclear disarmament negotiations and pressed Congress to fund the building of new U.S. nuclear weapons.

Yes, the Bush administration launched a war over what it claimed was the possession of nuclear weapons by Iraq (although, in fact, Iraq didn't possess any) and today is taking a very hard line toward Iran (which also does not possess them and might not even be developing them). But, in defiance of the disarmament commitment of the nuclear powers, the President seems thoroughly comfortable with his own command of some 10,000 nuclear weapons and his proposals for more.

http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_03/Nunn.asp

Kuwait Triples Investment in Japan, Highlighting Sovereign Wealth Flight From U.S. Assets

The Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA), the oil-rich nation’s sovereign wealth fund, is planning to triple its investment in Japan to $48 billion, highlighting a global investment shift away from U.S. assets.

The Kuwait sovereign wealth fund already has $15 billion to $16 billion invested in Japan

http://tinyurl.com/572qf3

Heads up:

"Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW CN): The re-seller of silver from other mines was raised to ``outperform'' from ``market perform'' at Raymond James. The shares dropped 16 percent to C$11 yesterday as silver prices slumped."

http://tinyurl.com/68zqln

OG

Thanks for the AOD answer as well as for the McEwan statement on UXG.

Casey is correct reference patience and calm. Number of emotional posts appears to have increased lately. The winners are those who remain calm during chaos while executing their action plans.

Hey, it's only summer trading. Wait until September and October when everyone's back from the Hamptons!

"I think traders are watching for Thursday’s decisions by the Bank of England and the ECB before committing much capital to equities."

Mmmmhh? Many of the European banks are in the same boat as their US counterparts, as are their economies. Does the breaking of commodities allow them to pause their interest rate increases?

[Bill Cara note: Many of the factors in a central bank decision are the spot and futures prices of commodity markets. If they are rising, there is more likelihood the central banks might raise, and vice versa, particularly when consumers are stretched. In this case, it's the longer term outlook for inflation, rather than this past month's commodity price pullback, that is keeping the central banks from lowering rates. But if the rates stay flat here, and commodity prices continue to fall, then the economy can expand again and wealth will grow and govt deficits will fall, so traders will commit more capital to a less risky equity market.]

Off topic

Sorry for this thought. But I feel strongly to express my opinion. And I think my experience will remind most of people (especially Americans here) that when you point your finger to others, just remember four of your fingers are pointing back to you.

Here is the news
"China revokes visa of gold medalist, Darfur activist Cheek"
http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/beijing/blog/fourth_place_medal/post/China-revokes-visa-of-gold-medalist-Darfur-acti?urn=oly,98718#post

It reads
"Chinese officials don't need a reason to revoke anyone's visa but, in their eyes, they had plenty of reasons to snatch Cheek's"

My question is what about Americans?

My parents were applying Visitor VISA this March from China. I have organized everything for them. But their applications were rejected. Why?

Just because one question.
After he reviewed my documents and asked a lot of questions, the officer asked "how long are you going to stay in US?" My mother said "if I like it, I am going to stay there for one year; if I don't like it, I am going to stay for six months."

Then the officer rejected by saying "what you said is not the same as what stated in the application." I wrote "six months".

I am asking how material the answer would be to make the officer to reject my parents' VISA application? After all the facts, my parents have stable pension income, real estates, other kid & relatives in China, just because one single answer is enough to reject the VISA?

If Americans blame Chinese have no human rights, Americans have NOT done anything better!!!

At least for me, they are the same.

Sorry for this unrelated topic, but I feel I have to say something when I read this news on the front page of yahoo.

[Bill Cara note: You really are referring to bureaucrats and not the majority of us, Chinese, American, Russian, Bahamian...

Several years ago a Canadian associate of mine was refused entry at a US international airport on the grounds his name was similar to too many terrorist suspects. He was a well-known person in the financial industry. I told him he should have been carrying one of his personal letters from the US President.

Old trick from USSR.]

really enjoyed your comments this morning Bill,
i feel like a boxer who's been smacked down by Jr. gold's for 10 rounds, but my corner is telling me to get up because he's on the ropes...

will be looking to employ the last of my gold allocations in the next few days if things hold up in this range.

[Bill Cara note: I cannot comment to that because I don't know anything about your risk tolerance, time horizon or performance expectation, etc. But, regardless, when prices fall to the expent many of the juniors have, there are good values around.]

I had posted this on yesterdays blog and am reposting here. Looking for clarification from the group.. Is this a typo or does Morgan Stanley expect BAC price to be at $20? Its $33 now with an 11% dividend.

http://tinyurl.com/5l94eh

Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

Regarding Nuclear Non-Proliferation.

Although nice in theory, to think the genie would ever go back in the bottle, that is believing that was what those political treaties were all about, is not to pay attention to the history of treaties-They're made to be broken and or used to one's advantage.

As for the US pulling out of the ABM treaty, which I think was originally from 1971, is to forget that in that treaty was a loophole the Russians exploited, against the spirit of the treaty, to put up an ABM system of their own.

apollo7:

You might consider that the officer who rejected them was some relatively low paid government servant, who enjoys his power.

alan,

Look to me like the MS ANALyst has the price target as $22.

Here are some other recent price targets for BAC:

$37 - Ladebburg Thalman
$26 - RBC
$25 - Credit Suisse

Regards

SKF- off at 116 and change...

vinod- OEBTP 4 contracts at 3.70...

jk484

I thought his was a financials site — If you want to peddle your BS comparing the bombing of August 6, 1945 with Bush's war go elsewhere.

You should at least consider a bit of context and throw in the Rape of Nanking, Dec. 7, 1941, the Bataan Death March, and the mindset of the Japanese people which would have caused millions more deaths if invasion of their homeland had ensued.

For those who were on their way to the land of the rising sun (and their offspring) the bomb was a lifesaver!

Unless you were there — keep your mouth _ _ _ _ shut!

It's hard for me to believe the dollar is still getting stronger and the market looks like it's going to rally again today.

That's probably why it's happening right?

Thankfully I am holding the Jan 09 puts. There's no way all these institutions will stay solvent until then. I would expect that very soon we'll see everything reverse as either someone big goes down or everyone sells the dollar realizing that we can never pay off all these debts(especially with a new bail-out of another industry announced almost daily.

Rob.

[Bill Cara note: Most large corporations are financially strong and their earnings are relatively strong, so the $USD is enjoying a rebound off its over-sold condition. How far that goes will depend on further evaluation of the earnings/guidance of corporations. Traders have already separated in their mind the questions about bank write-downs to come and the overall strength of the global economy. The US economy is likely to grow at a faster rate for a couple years than Europe's or Japan's, so the $USD doesn't deserve to continue falling. But, if housing prices continue to fall, putting the future losses of mortgage-backed assets into worse levels, requiring more aid from the Fed, then the $USD is likely to stumble again.

On a different note, I think gold and silver will start to rise even as the $USD rises, and interest rates rise, at some point when the US economy stabilizes and starts to grow at normal +3% rates.]

Apollo,

So Americans have NOT done anything better? Next time there is a typhoon or a famine note just how much foreign aid is sent to the victims from China — official and personal.

If you want perfection, I guess you'll have to do it yourself.

[Bill Cara note: Yes, the (majority of) American people are the most giving in the world. They are also the most forgiving, sometimes to a fault.]

Someone had alerted to the split of iShares previously, but sure enough my heart skipped a beat when I glanced at XGD this morning.
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/080716/barclays_unit_split.html?.v=1

Barclays Global Investors announces unit split affecting certain iShares(R) Funds
Wednesday July 16, 4:05 pm ET

Listing: TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) Symbol: XEG, XFN, XGD, XIC, XIU, XMA, XMD
TORONTO, July 16 /CNW/ - Barclays Global Investors Canada Limited (Barclays Canada), a worldwide leader in exchange-traded funds, today announced upcoming unit splits for the seven iShares funds set out below (iShares Funds), each of which is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). Unitholders of record of the iShares Funds on August 8, 2008 will automatically participate in the unit splits.
Barclays Canada is initiating these splits in response to investor demand. The prices of certain iShares funds have increased significantly, so the splits will allow investors access at a smaller initial investment to some of the more popular iShares funds that have a relatively high unit price. The "split ratios" shown below indicate the number of units that a unitholder of an iShares Fund will hold after the split in relation to the number of units held by the unitholder before the split.

The iShares Funds will begin trading on the TSX on a split-adjusted basis on August 6, 2008.

alan - I was pointing out that if the expectation bar is set low, then level of satisfaction is high once the hurdle is cleared. Don't you think $15 was a bit understated? I think $22 is also understated based on today's numbers. IMO this analyst is calling for conservative earnings and price for this stock to ensure BAC won't fail to meet expectation.

I call into question all analyst data.

Thanks Nemo. Your understanding makes me feel better.

Re: split of iShares

It appears StockCharts is ignoring the split, proceeding with various momentum calculations as though the share price really had lost %75 of it's value overnight (in the case of XGD.to which split 4:1). For example, RSI fell from high 20's to 8 overnight.

I wonder how many quant trading programs will initiate a panic-sell when they interpret the split as the bottom falling out from under the share price ?

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) just popped on the screen as "Un-shortable" at Interactive Brokers (ie., no shares capable of being borrowed by IB).

CALM - No shortables at Fido either....

GOLD:XAU ratio

The GOLD:XAU ratio has reached an extreme level last seen in Oct., 2000. While it can always get even more extreme, this level is a rare opportunity to consider scaling into the sector. See the chart posted at Traders-Talk.com:
http://tinyurl.com/GOLD-XAU-ratio-chart

"...If a small change in wording can get these trained market-monkeys to bang their drums and screech then they're dumber than I thought."

"...The turnaround in PAL is shocking and is suspect."

"...I won't be surprised if this rally runs out of steam by lunchtime tomorrow."

Posted by: shark_attack at August 5, 2008 10:11 PM [link]

Guess I was being optimistic.

shark:

PAL is one of my watch indicators, its upswing now is still suspect in my mind and only a short term upswing, I am still targeting it for the mid 3's

Japan - And the stories of how decapitated American soldiers heads were kicked up and down the streets of Hashimoto during the war.

Chickenpookie, If you look at a long term chart, say back to the Russian default or the South American debt crisis (which were minor events compared in terms of magnitude to this credit crisis), you could make a case that it would be surprising not to see $15 -- unless you believe the Fed has this all handled and its now on the mend.

VLO is looking good today. Does anyone have information on the inventory report that was due out at 10:30 EST?

2% drop in gasoline inventories (higher than expected), refiners took off, TSO up 8%, VLO, SUN up 4%.
SUN reports today according to Yahoo.

Hi Guys,
Back temporarily from So. Cal. and looking to body surf but trying to find the timing of the waves after a couple weeks off....it might take a few sets to get it right without getting planted in the sand.

My advise to everyone before it happens to you....tell your parents they can get rid of all those school gifts and junk you made for them in elementary school. And request they go through their receipts/returns and shred and throw away anything the IRS/officials don't require.

For instance, if your mom has her aunts tax returns from 1946, it's safe to let those go now..... or you will spend several weeks shredding like I did.....

Thanks for the surf report Bill.

Is WGW still a viable long term play?Is it a solid jr. pm company? Will it survive or is a just a penny stock? I don't understand the hedge and I know gold is in a downtrend but my question is the company fundamentally sound?
TIA
Steve

grym

winners write the history, not the losers

In western movies, native Americans are the villians, and deserved to be wiped out.

this is Bill's site not yours

and you can do whatever you want with your own mouth.

Grym,

Thank you! Bravo...

jk484 - unfortunately corruption is all around us.. The game is corrupt only to those an advantage to win. The point of playing the game is to win.
We live in a war based economy and that structure has allowed some to prosper and some to suffer.

As others above mention there are very giving people in this country and there are very unforgiving people in this country. That statement can go around the world....
Keep in mind, no matter what source of media you gather or absorb information from.

Bad news sells, it sells at a larger rate than good news.

One thing, IMO can you blame the "USSA" for not joining that will give up an advantage?
Of course other countries want the USSA to give up control, who stands to benefit from it? those that prefer that. Keep in mind we didn't sign the cluster bomb treaty but then again the top three militaries in the world didn't join that party either. Who got the bad press? the USSA of course.

Smile, stay positive and do something nice for someone everyday.

Gyrm,

"For those who were on their way to the land of the rising sun (and their offspring) the bomb was a lifesaver!"

How true! My dad was on ship off the coast of Japan waiting for a possible invasion.
No bomb...no me... no one to buy UXG @5.90
:-)

alan - Truthfully, I don't know, all I really know is I'm throughly baffled by analysts figures and most of the characters involved are more slippery than two eels in a bucket of snot. If the FED does have control(uhmmm) then I suppose $22.00 is conservative. If not, then maybe $2.00~15.00 is more realistic. Even analysts don't seem to agree and my interpretation of the FOMC statement indicates the ball is not in the FED's court. I guess if you had some way of knowing an analysts track record and if there were any conflicts of interest, that would be a starting point for making a rational decision...

Welcome back Craig I've missed you and I am sorry for what you've been through. As for the sculpture I made for my mom in 3rd grade, the one of the retarded looking dinasour, I am glad she held on to it. Regarding the other 11 tons of garbage she's been collecting in her basement, your advice is sage. Actually she just went for an MRI and it came back favorable, so it looks like she may be around awhile longer thank God.

Casey, yesterdays PAL move was interesting but it's a great example of, you don't want to buy on a strong close and hope for the best. Not in this market.

Oil falling causing the sudden rally?

norm

1. today is a very sad day for humanity because of the massive loss of life in Hiroshima. we need to remember that so that it does happen again anywhere.

2. I am not the author of the articles

grym can direct his bark else where

this is the end, no more discussion on this subject

Bill, I haven't said it lately, thank you for all you do. I agree with you about the Reg Crowder blog, it went into my Cara Blog bookmark file. I agree with his take on investing outside of the US and am having a hard time researching anything other than the BIG BOYS Thanks to all posters .
Korvus, is an updated version of your great RSI app available anywhere? I use it daily I still have MU on mine.
Casey, thanks for those words to have patience. I work in retail and have noticed the same unpleasantness you mention. Of course I would like to take your words and club some people about the head! And Roubini says we are only in the 3rd inning!
Born and matured on the great North Side of Chicago, raised the family in rural northern illinois and attempting to find peace from North Puget Sound

Shark: agreed on PAL

patience in waiting for it to stabilize at a new low is what I am waiting for.

It's not fun to play swings in unstable positions unless you can react fast enough, which in my longer style I cannot do. I have to think in terms of 1 - 5 day turn around, so any stock I buy I have to feel good about holding long in case I mistime.

WFMI - I'm waiting for the split to update in my portfolio, but still nothing.

According to stockcharts the put/call ratio ($CPC) reached 0.76 yesterday, which is also the lowest reading this year.

Bill, when I read back your comment, I agree with you. I maybe a little overacted.

I apologize if I offend someone.

Just can not get over with US medias blame everything in China.

Please remember normal Chinese people have to spend 40-50% on their grocery budget every month. They really don't have much to give. And remember Chinese have purchased a lot of FRE & FMN paper, also including US treasuries. They indirectly support the living standard of US.

[Bill Cara note: It's a small world, getting smaller. The dirty laundry of once faraway neighbors is now right in our faces. None of us likes a lot of what we see, so it's up to each of us to try to do something about it. By sharing, we can build this community the way we want. I'm sorry if I occasionally offend, but the truth is there has to be high standards and some guidance to be successful. So I try to intervene and comment as little as possible, but whenever I feel the need and have the time.]

Casey,

I try to make sure that my daytrades make sense in longer timeframes for exactly the reason you state. I like to daytrade stocks that look good on the 5 minute, the daily AND the weekly chart. This cuts down considerably on the number of plays available, but I find these days the less I trade the less I lose:)

Oh and I totally missed out on the airline party of the previous half hour. And once a trade is over, it's water out of the faucet. In a normal job you can sit at home at night and say to yourself

"I screwed up...Tomorrow when I go in to the office I'm going to fix that."

Not so this business. Once the pitch crosses the plate it's as over as over can be.

[Bill Cara note: On another note, Bloomberg TV is presently interviewing John Ryding, now of RDQ Economics. Excellent. Why can't FETV do more of this? Good questions; informed answers. No histrionics. Thank you.]

I can't remember if anyone else posted a link to this before. I found it to be a particularily insightful look at the human psyche, which applies a lot to trading habits.......

The Economist

The endowment effect
It’s mine, I tell you

http://tinyurl.com/6ytksz

Apollo,

at one point in time when my status made me a subject of beaurocrats discretion I encountered similar frustrations with both Canada and USA entry regimes. Maybe I can offer you some advise based on my experiences.

In these matters you deal with both, system and particular people. System does leave some things to those people's discretion. If you believe your claim is fair within system guidelines and was rejected on pure discretion, then you need to convince people. Don't take it personally (I know, easier said than done). Approach it in a constructive way, defining your ultimate goal and steps to achieve it. Persevere and re-submit well though-through application. Point out to new facts supporting your claim, or make abundantly clear those that served as a reason for rejection. Be polite and don't let your anger and frustration shine through your letter.

Good luck

I just bought some yellow so you guys can get a lower price.

What would you guys make of an almost perfect INVERTED head-and-shoulders pattern that has set up during the last 1 year following several strong years of an uptrend? I know that an inverted h-a-s after a downtrend can signal a bullish reversal, so I'm confused what it means after a long uptrend. Nothing? A continuation? A reversal?

looks like the inventory report was positive for VLO. here's to getting over $40 before next friday!

Hello everyone.

I happened to catch a great interview with the chair & CEO of Aecon Group this morning on BNN. You can probably go to the BNN site to view it. They are a construction/infrastructure company in Canada, have something like $1.5b in backorders. I haven't had a chance to look at their statements but do recall a Canaccord analyst reccomending the stock a few weeks back. no position. the ticker is ARE.TO.

Japan at War - An Oral History by Haruko Taya Cook and Theodore F. Cook

The last paragraph in the book is from an interview with Hayashi Shigeo, a Japanese Army photographer:

"Eventually we travelled to Nagasaki, and repeated the same process there. One day, I went to the Mitsubishi arsenal and was photographing the torpedo plant. I was being escorted around by a Mitsubishi man. At some point he said to me, "This is where we made the first torpedoes, the ones dropped on Pearl Harbor at the onset of the Pacific War." The wrenches and other tools used by the workers were lying there, all around me, as if they'd been set down a minute ago. I could have reached out myself and picked them up. Finally he said quietly, "Mr. Hayashi, the very first torpedo was launched from here in Nagasaki, and in the end here's where we were stabbed to death. We fought a stupid war, didn't we?" The two of us just stood there in silence."

War is a Racket (Major General Smedley Butler)

http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/warisaracket.html

RH

BillySundance,

good article, thank you. My favorite sentence in it: "professional traders can, and do, overcome the effect". I'd guess, that's what makes them professional traders - absence of emotional attachment, trading what they see and not what they want to see.

As a combat veteran, I can tell you all war is stupid.

The days of rightfully fighting to protect your families and land from invasion are long gone. Today's wars are fought for strategic (read military/industrial business) interests.

Hey Sharkster,

I'm kickin' myself on FCX. I knew yesterday when it was sucking wind around $76 it made no sense. Closed and 79 and has been hanging around 86 all day. My cajones were non-existent

On the Economist article:

Reminds me of George Carlin's comment, "My stuff is my stuff, your stuff is your s&%t.

nemo -

From latinoladia: that would be cojones ;-)

Brazilian real.

Placed some sideline cash in BZF in lieu of a MM in late May before SFO trip.

Sold BZF this a.m. @ 27.10, taking the @ 7.5% profit. Worked better than a MM. Current concerns out of BZ about real appreciating too fast, but they have some serious central bankers down there that are not afraid of raising rates.

Heading off to Wrigley this afternoon. Have a good one!

Hey everyman, I don't have those either!

Bill -

Maybe I could use some clarification to the comments provided to Fingerlakes. I agree that most corporations are sound but where you and I differ is to the amount of risk and losses priced into the financial sector; banking in particular. All one has to do is look at the massive bait-and-switch recently pulled by MER where in one breath "everything's ok" to "oh, right, we forgot about this off the book multi billion dollar write down - our bad".

How much of this is still left? How much has/CAN be accurately priced in? If the dollar is to rebound on stronger housing than it is going to take solvency and liquidity to spur real estate again. How many more write offs will occur? More importantly, how big will they be? How can we expect that with some analysts calling this crisis half way over to others declaring we are on the verge of a major depression that the true scope of the issue is truly known?

[Bill Cara note: Agreed that the banks will be writing off maybe $600 billion in dubious assets in the next couple years, and more probably if house prices continue falling and foreclosures keep rising, but that hurts the shareholders of the banks. I don't see what it has to do with the $USD or shareholders who don't hold the Financials. The Financials can muddle through the next couple years, and the $USD could still get stronger. If it does, it would be because (i) US wage inflation doesn't become an issue, (ii) US commodity price inflation slows, or (iii) the UK/European and Japanese economies grow slower than the US, etc. I'm not arguing either way; I opined several weeks ago that the current price level for the $USD (about $0.74) was my target--against which we'd see falling commodity prices, and that happened--but now I think we have to look at the latest data to forecast where te $USD goes from here. I'm smart enough to say I don't know where the $USD will be a year from now. But, I think there is a good chance it will be higher.]

apollo7 - I have some experience with Japan so I don't know if it's the same for China, but Japanese tend to use the word "maybe" very often.

I constantly have to ask them, "Do you mean maybe yes, or maybe no?".

If you are being interviewed (I'm just imagining this) by a customs official and you answer his question with an indefinite answer, that answer is unlikely to be taken positively.

These customs officials are under great pressure and should be better trained to understand the nuances, style and customs of foreign peoples, but I think there still is too much chance for misunderstanding and suspicion.

Remember, their job is to stop terrorists and undesirables from entering. Can you imagine having this responsibility?

Debt markets are not mirroring the equity markets:

From http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=1321:

The English word mortgage shares a Latin root with words which deal with death such as mortal or mortify. The Latin root is mors which literally means death. Mortgage takes its meaning from the Old French word for “dead pledge”.I mention this because the mortgage market today is a near death experience. When I last checked a few minutes ago mortgages were about 18 ticks wider to Treasury paper and about ½ point wider to swaps. There has been significant selling by servicers originators, and speculators.

One dealer noted that when mortgage spreads took a clubbing last March as Bear Stearns was passing through death’s door that the market received a stay of execution as foreign buyers emerged and as the regulators lifted some balance sheet constraints.

There will be no such deus ex machina this time. Indeed, the twin fears gripping mortgage market participants are that Freddie will not only slow its portfolio growth but the exigencies of present circumstances might force Freddie to shed assets.

If that is the case, mortgage market participants might ask the question posed in the Bible, “Death, where is thy sting”?

commodities (UNG/USO/GLD) taking off...SLW up to 11.54...

nemo -

There's a virtue in that. Great Economist article on the endowment effect, reminding all of us that it's far better to use the brain and repress the cojones! We males tend to have a problem in that area. Testosterone, you know. I wonder, are women better (e.i., less emotional) traders than men? Anybody know if a study has ever been done?

Craig,

Your comment on body surfing put a smile on my face. Thanks. I am stuck in the middle of the continental US and didnt get my fix this year. I did try the wave pool at Mandalay Bay but it lacked a certain something... like good waves.

Positive and calming thoughts to all.

interesting , could be very useful ..

Start Data Plumbing With Yahoo Pipes

Yahoo Pipes solves the problem by providing an easy, graphical way to interact with data. No command line or shell scripts necessary!

A Pipe is a collection of data sources upon which we can apply operators, such as filtering, merging, and sorting. The output of a Pipe usually an RSS feed, though Yahoo provides a number of ways to get results, such as email or mobile phone text message.

Pipes are useful in that they can merge multiple sources into one, or take a firehose of information and filter out only the stuff that's important to you. They can also do much more, but we're going to keep things simple for this entree into data plumbing.

http://tinyurl.com/5dnhp7

nemo - Si, cojones pequenos y zapatos grande.

[Bill Cara note: Yes, the (majority of) American people are the most giving in the world. They are also the most forgiving, sometimes to a fault.]

Agreed, Bill. Thank you and others.

Note to jk484: Sorry, but this topic hits too close and my remembrances are obviously quite different than yours.

Photogray,

I'll add updating the RSI application to my to-do list today. I've been busy and it's surprisingly irritating to update the Cara 100 list there.

Jeff

"commodities (UNG/USO/GLD) taking off..."

Weak volumes?

Hey, I'd make emotional decisions too if my chance of being struck by lightning was better than 2x... Don't just stand there, do something!

Strong USD -> POG down though, right? Why buy yellow, then?

Good morning! :)

I see that both SLW and SWC ran away from me, as I wanted to keep piling into both of them, placing a buy limit order at $7 for SWC and $10 for SLW. Well, since SLW rose so much, I just sold 1/4 of at $11.54 and placed the proceeds into SWC at $7.43. So now each one of them is at about 8% of my portfolio.

For those of you who have invested into SWC or are interested in investing into it, and haven't read what their CEO said during the last earnings announcement, you can find it here: http://tinyurl.com/6pzlbl. Here are some excerpts:

"The Company also has in place a nearly exhausted hedge book of forward sales commitments on platinum at prices fixed well below the level of current market prices. These forward sales reduced net revenues and profits by $7.0 million (on 9,000 hedged ounces) in the first quarter of 2008 and by $7.3 million (on 26,500 hedged ounces) in the first quarter of 2007. The last remaining 6,000 ounces covered by these below-market platinum hedges (committed at an average overall price of $1,054 per ounce) will mature by the end of June 2008."

"Company has a significant recycling business, processing spent catalyst from automotive catalytic converters and, to a lesser extent, from petrochemical facilities. This business also benefits from higher platinum-group metal (PGM) prices, although because this material is priced well ahead of final delivery and sale, it takes longer for the associated earnings benefit to flow through. Consequently, much of the effect of the first quarter 2008 increase in PGM prices will flow into the second quarter results."

So do you want to guess how their Q2 2008 results will differ from Q1 results, and then Q3 differ from Q2?

Finally, their CEO discusses the long-term outlook for platinum and palladium, suggesting that the prices will keep moving up for years.

DavidV

wow, that was a spectacular bounce off resistance of $41.70 for UNG

The Cara 100 list on the RSI application should now be updated. If you have any problems, try refreshing the page.

Jeff

Thanks Jeff, I reall appreciate that site
JK484, got a yahoo acct, what can the pipes do for us here ?
peace

Hi, Bill and others, I want to raise a topic regarding trading tactics which I have difficulty with.
When you have a plan in your mind, use junior mining companies as example,when you would know it is the time to pull the trigger,any specific indicators (in additional to RSIs which Bill suggests),context,sentiment?
Many times I had an idea, but just hesitated to take the action, and only found on the next day or so the stocks were gone. I do not know if it is a psychology issue or the skill issue, or maybe both.
Thank for the discussion. I'd like to learn from others' experiences.

I see that VLO is also behaving well today. :) Yesterday I sold at $32.25 the shares I bought in the morning at $31.15, and a little while ago I sold at $34 the shares I purchased a few days ago at $32. Now I have no more shares but still have a short position in VLO puts, which if given to me, will comprise 15% of my portfolio, which is large enough as it is. So I want to use VLO shares only for short-term trading now, buying low and selling with a little profit. I am ready to buy it if it drops to $32 again.

DavidV

The Next Shoe To Drop - Pay Option ARM Defaults

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

+AOD @ 12.15

Bill,
Thanks for the reply. I do understand the Europe and Japan may in worse straits than us, especially since we won't be buying many of their goods.

Even though you're more optimistic about the US than Japan or Europe, I see that you don't think financials are in the clear yet.

I suppose the main wildcard now is whether the reflation effort by the FED and Treasury can gain enough steam to prevent more big banks like Wachovia, and Washington Mutual and Lehman from going under.

I'll keep my eye on the T-bill yield and the dollar for clues as to direction.

Thanks again for the best Blog ever!!

Rob.

IRX is down over 5% today.

POA's - Good article QT, I really got to make myself peruse more of these sites on my own. Killer bats?

vinod- exiting OEBTP at 2.20 for a loss...not getting a read on direction, taking the hit..

So, ABK posts a profit from an accounting change that values it's credit derivatives higher than before and everyone cheers and sends the stock up 13%.

FRE cuts it's dividend and loses tons of money and it's shares are hardly even down compared to how bad they missed

Next will be LEH hitting 35 bucks a share after it sells equity to raise capital while diluting current shareholders by 50%.

And the cheers go on.

If I could predict when bad news would be bad and when bad news would be good I'd be a much better trader.

Rob.

As for SLW, did you notice the following in their latest earnings announcement on July 29:

In Q2 2008, the company received record operating cash flow of US$35.9 million compared with US$27.8 million in Q2 2007 from selling 2.9 million ounces of silver.

Based upon its current agreements, the Company expects to have annual silver sales of between 13 million and 15 million ounces in 2008, increasing to 19 million ounces in 2009 and 25 million ounces in 2010. Silver Wheaton is actively pursuing further growth opportunities.

Can you imagine how their cash flow will grow in the next couple of years???

DavidV

Anyone having a conduit on articles pertaining to the state of health for commercial banks vs retail banks please cough it up..... I'll look too, but not until after close.

Still no comments on analyst earnings estimates? No opinions, or am I being stupid (it doesn't matter)?

grym: accepted.

photogray: the link gives a good example. basically programming part has been replaced with a graphical interface. will let you know more when I work with it a little bit.

Asking for comment, I have SKF and SRS, both underwater. Would you (any willing to comment) get out on an up day like today? Or, wait for the bad news to come back around? None of this money is food or mortgage money.
Also underwater GEA.TO and AUY. Please feel free to comment.
TIA

David and SmallCapFan,

I purchased SWC on Monday near the close after it penetrated the lower BB, and RSI(14) on both daily and weekly looked to be showing signs of a pending bounce. I also expect some bounce ahead of earnings next week. Of course, todays M&A activity also helps put a potential floor under the price. This is a bounce play for me, as I am looking for a move into the $9 - &10 range within a week or so.

Rob, Looks like maybe short covering? Maybe they're holding onto their shorts waiting for the right moment? Beats me...

they want to take it up...

CP- if it crests 11700, shorts become the market driver...

The DJI might retest the 11,700 high of late july. SPX is testing at it's high of 1290. XLF is underperforming today relative to the indices. the BKX seems a little healthier than XLF.

There's an established uptrend in XLF, but it's clinging. if DJI & XLF climb up over their recent (end of July) highs, might want to cover the shorts on financials... unless you're willing to wait until the next spike.

I think there's a realization of poor growth in the world ex-USA and it's worth throwing some money back here.

Anyway, got back in UYG this morning, @ 22.85. Picked up some DDM later @ 63.21, not the greatest entries, but I'm above water today. We'll see what 3PM brings.

photo - depends on your timeline. My skf is as red as my wfmi and I'm keeping both. I'm more confident in my skf and chk than the remainder of my equities port. Trying to decide which needs adding to, maybe skf....

ok, short covering kicks in @11700, what's driving it there, oil? (don't answer if I'm right)

Yesterday's rally in the Dow was roughly 25% short covering and the rest were genuine believers in the future of stocks. The NASDAQ had a very small % due to short covering.

If you have any faith in the Elliott Wave Principle we are just about ready to [or maybe have today] start our last big push upwards to the 12000ish area before the BIG plunge downward. According to McHugh this rally should last about one or two weeks, taking us to mid to late Aug then the plunge.

Gold should rally a bit for the next few days then it is expected to correct [stair step fashion]10% below Tuesday's low over the next month. Then the climb to 1000+.

Just another view to consider folks.

This web sight has a lot of good information including the name of funds that own a particular stock. It provides the totals by percent as to all the funds as to their buying, selling or netural stance

http://tinyurl.com/5hulch

ok, ex-usa. that's what I was thinking yesterday.

Looks like something may be up with Aurelian; volume jumping and big blocks being traded.

David - I'm still holding VLO. It looks like the bullish divergence call was correct for the time being. I think there's a chance we could see a bunce back rally in the refiners similar to the financials of the past couple of weeks.

Scottraders

Has anyone been using the "Velocity & Forces" tool? If so what do you think of it?

[Bill Cara note: Sounds like a male kind of thing.

btw, I was warned by John in the UK that Amazon.UK is listing my book for 189.96 pound sterling. Then I saw that only 94% of 30106 ratings were positive, so I checked to see where the negative 1800 reviews were coming from. After all, I figure it’s a perfect book that should be worth close to 200 pounds, which is my new svelte weight. Then to my shock and dismay, the first review was by charlotte (2008/8/6) who gave me 4 out of 5: "This book has greatly helped me write the essay of female representation in King's novels. The book was promptly delivered and was in good condition, as described, which was great considering it was second hand!"

Hmmm, I knew the book covers a lot of ground, but “female representation in King’s novels”? Is that where the RSI-7 dips below 30 or something? Maybe I should check this out? Do you think?
http://tinyurl.com/6gelrz ]

CSCO helping but ABK is a screamer. Looks like it might be supporting the "rally". Wait till that candle flickers...

CALM- the difference between CALM and TASR is there really is a long-term case to be made for this company in the face of inflation...do shorts get out now, or at 70...

Velocity and forces is less than useless. It reflects only immediate action, as in, whatever's happening that exact second. It's BS.

QT - Where can you find info % of short covering?

SmallCapFan - You have to develop your own Trading Plan, but for "context", here is something that I use, but it requires StockCharts.

My "context" comes first from looking at how the miner's relevant sector is doing compared to the S&P - why, because Funds want to put money in "better than the SPX" prospects for their bonus, and so do you.

In the case of junior miners, I would use $GDM:$SPX for the comparision and would look for a sustained move upward in the ratio [which means that the junior is doing better than the sector] such as crossing and holding above its sma(20), or whatever indicator you might prefer.

Then, I would look at how the miner itself is doing compared to its relevant sector. For example, using GG [Cara100] as an example, I would chart GG:$GDM and look for a sustained move upward such as the ratio crossing and holding above its sma(20), or whatever you might prefer.

Then, I would use the CaraTools that you already mentioned, plus a couple of my own for timing. Perhaps, this "context" will help give you the confidence to act more quickly on your signals.

If need a chart to help you understand what I've said above, then ask for it, and I will try to get one posted tonight.

Hope this helps.

GOLD -10% to 786 this month? I have my doubts... please try and convince me.

CALM @ 43.31

Bill, “female representation in King’s novels”, It's obvious you haven't been paying attention...

[Bill Cara note: The guys seem to like it:
5 out of 5: "That was the one copy in the world of the book I was looking for. Great guys!!"
Date: 2008/8/6 Rated by Buyer: Michael

Anyway, that "one-click purchase" at Amazon.co.uk could be pretty expensive.]

QT,

WHo does the Elliot Wave predict will lead in medal wins?

This short rally upwards should be called the Bejing Fling; I suspect big hangovers to hit hard after this final pumping through the end of summer.

Svelt 200lbs - It's probably the diet soda. switch to cane sugar, stay away from any other sweetners, incl. corn.

Corn is why cattle coming off the feed lot look so crappy. They can only eat just so much before they get deathly ill.

I didn't find any customer reviews on the Amazon.co.uk site.

Lessons from the Trader Wizard (Hardcover)
by Bill Cara (Author), Sarah Barham (Editor), Carol Bonnett (Editor)

No customer reviews yet. Be the first.

From amazon.com:

Lessons From the Trader Wizard (Hardcover)
by Bill Cara (Author), Sarah Barham (Editor), Carol Bonnett (Editor)

6 Reviews
5 star: (6)

See all 6 customer reviews...

(6 customer reviews)

Appears all reviews are regular posters!

I don't understand why people would sell this book used. I'm sending mine to my Mother for her to read (finished it on a cruise a couple weeks ago). I will ask for it back when she is done also.

The half dozen reviews I read on US-Amazon were all positive (and no references to female representations or King's novels). I ordered a copy for my father, MtnGntx Sr. I just can't stop trying to save that man from chronic poor investment. Hopefully, with Bill's help, he will leave the dark side for more fertile fields.

picked up some SIRI today at 1.40 couldn't resist the thought of a possible double at that price

Mr. Cara?

The 94% rating is for the bookstore anybook-uk, not your book.

That was the book with the RSI-30 vs female supply/demand curves. It's incredible what mailing machinery can accomplish...

[Bill Cara note: Did anybody see the Coxe interview on CNBC? It's amazing what fronting a commodity fund for a major bank can do for anxiety levels -- his and his colleagues. Ms. Bartiromo just interviewed BMO's Don Coxe who told the audience, including his peers at BMO that (i) there are phantom earnings at banks, and (ii) traders should sell the banks and buy the commodity producers because the latter have "real" earnings. I'm sure his boss was impressed. Coxe claims that the rush to cover shorts in the Financials has caused the sell-off in commodities. Maybe that's what the bank's commodity trading desk is telling him. I don't think he's hearing that from the equity trading desk. But if he is, he should tell us that. Yes, it must be frustrating running a commodity fund for BMO, which a year ago lost more capital from stupidities in their commodities trading than their equity trading desk made. As I opined earlier when his commodity fund first came out; I hope the bank pays him well for being the front man for that fund. It's a tough business, Don. Maybe you ought to be working for Glencore. The Zug metals men crashed platinum shortly before their Xstrata made an unsolicited bid for Lonmin, which just happens to be a leader in platinum mining. Insider trading here? I wonder!]

Tried to jump on the UXG bandwagon today, but got shoved off by my trailing stop order about 3:00 today.

And here I was thinking I was early for a little ride!

Some of this post may offend some or not...

Major General Butler was a great leader throughout his career in th USMC.

He was right, war is nothing more than a racket.

Unfortunately the USA is a war based economy but if we go back in history. So was every other major world power. GB - the queen had their boats, before then was the Spanish and their armada... Before then the romans had their roads.

The continual struggle through out our lifetimes and our kids will the be struggle for natural resources. Some pundits see that free trade will be the only fair way to accomplish this with out a specific biased for one interest or another.
The problem is everyone wants the best deal.. What is ours, we should protect is a going sediment of many nations on the globe. Until everyone gets on the same page there will always be conflict unfortunately .

Think about sports... how often are there trades? often but not that often because everyone has a different value of their assets or resources. Look at the Brett Farve debacle... Packers were wanting a 2nd round pick for a trade at first.>> is that fair? They don't want to send him to a rival in the division because it could come back to haunt them. Eventually their hand will be forced to make a decision that ultimately may not benefit them but the other side of the coin is to continualy have the distraction in the locker room which could be cancerous and have more immediate short term and long term damage in the club house.

It is a complicated world full of greed and corruption.

Take note everyone.

Thieves skim credit card data at fuel pumps

http://tinyurl.com/6q3xx3

Bought a little United Airlines on the drop and sold it into the close. Made less than a kid at McDonalds, but didn't have to ask if you'd like fries with that!

IRX declined markedly today even though the market rallied. Let's see if this divergence continues...

TORONTO - Greyhound has scrapped an ad campaign that extolled the relaxing upside of bus travel after one of its passengers was accused of beheading and cannibalizing another traveler.

The ad's tag line was "There's a reason you've never heard of 'bus rage.'"

Spot and Krharrellnw, thanks for the reply.

rharaz,

Great find by Maj. Gen. Butler. He was twice awarded the Medal of Honor.

Here's a quote Maj. Gen. Butler's "War is a Racket":

"I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents."[21]

I'm sure it's just a coincidence that when one flies over Northern Iraq's oil fields, there's so much oil that patches of ground glisten "Black" in places . . . just like stories in American fields from a century ago.

I mean, this is a coincidence, because Iraq was behind the Anthrax attacks, had weapons of mass destruction, and played a major role in 9/11? Right? Right?

2nd

-OEBUP 10 at 12.00 still have them and underwater
-OEBTN 20 at 2.00 out at 1.50 lost 1.5K
-OEBTP 15 at 3.50 out at 3.80

When I started this OEX, I was advise do not trade every day.
Wait for extreme in DOW. Do only five or six time a year
And what happen? I got carried away

Also looking at how I am doing, I got feeling that should stay with stock and ETF

Lot to learn and as time go buy will have some experience. It was good that buy luck I am up a lot so losing few K will have no impact
I need to spend more time and work little hard on weekend,
Like my Italian boss for 20 year use to say take chance, but you must understand there is no room for error

Blowout -

Good stuff.

your logic about this being a coincidence is sound!

On the other side of the coin, wasn't it saddam who continually forced the hand that get dealt to him?
Let in the inspectors, kick them out... defy sanctions... ridicule those who are trying to control him.... that is ok right?
Who is suffering? his people? because of the sanctions? That game of defiance went on for over a decade and no one wanted to step up to the plate and do something...

Lets not forget the oil for food scandal (corruption, two faced special interest that our own allies had going on with them that went around the sanctions).
Saddam could never accomplish obtaining WMD because of those sanctions, there wasn't enough to fund those goals of his regime. That was never reported on a broad spectrum.

Again I am not saying it was RIGHT but it was it wrong?
We can't forget the whole timeline that lead to the change however the "sell" to make the change was enough to move the pendulum to the other side.

Unfortunately, it is going on in Iran now... Who is suffering? obviously not the rich in the country (as bill mentioned before, they are vacationing in Dubai, EU and USA) but the poor are the ones suffering from those sanctions.
Hopefully they understand that you have to go with the trend or no one wins.

norm,

All good points. I have no doubt that many Iraqis are better off without Saddam (I've been thanked with hugs from a Salah ad Din province man who couldn't speak--Saddam's secret police had eased his burden of having to live with a tongue years earlier). Saddam was a bad, bad man. Period.

But regardless of Saddam's evil nature or "good works" by our Armed forces, I've come to the viewpoint that, with armed conflict, the ends cannot justify the means.

I pray America is still a Democracy, and in a democracy, the case for war must be made clearly and honestly to the people. They, through their elected representatives, should decide based on truthful statements.

I am not a conspiracy theorist. But it is my personal opinion that the moment 9/11 occurred, the "powers that be" concocted a game plan, part of which was to gain a strategic foothold in Iraq. Instead of the poppycock reasons we were all told by GWB, Colin, Condi, the media et al, I would have appreciated it if they told us the truth:

"We're going in to stake our claim on some of the last, best drops of oil in the Mid-East. And, oh by the way, we can situate ourselves between Iran and Syria and Israel. We can use Iraq as a springboard for future Mid-East military operations, and, by placing America's sons and daughters in harm's way during a protracted occupation, should something bad happen, we'll have enough casualties to whip up public support for attacking Iran or Syria."

If the real truth wouldn't have led to American public support for the Iraq War, then the conflict shouldn't have been waged.

Seven years after 9/11 and five and a half years into Iraq, and I'm still waiting for my Congress to declare a War, in accordance with the process our Constitution intended.

"ridicule those who are trying to control him"

Do you expect the leaders of sovereign nations to submit to demands of another nation? That is a sure way to lose your head.

Sadaam, in 2003, was apparently immersed in writing a action/romance novel and watching hollywood movies for ideas, not developing WMD's. The CIA was aware of this, but Chalabi came up with dozen's of witnesses that spewed lies about Iraq's advanced weapons programs, which were believed and embraced by the White House as they had already decided to attacked Iraq on 9/12. Powell's biological weapons labs in a trailer were one of those preposterous lies.

There is a book coming out by Suskind with an accusation that Bush ordered the CIA to forge a back-dated, handwritten letter from the head of Iraqi intelligence to Saddam Hussein to tie Al Qaeda to Iraq. Two named CIA agents substantiate the charge.

It was wrong, because the goal had nothing to do with the reason's given nor defense of the nation and involved apparently impeachable offenses, if Suskind's claim is substantiated. For this we have paid nearly $3,000 per US citizen.

Moab,

good points...

intelligence especially military intelligence isn't great. come to think of it, government anything isn't good.

another point, saddams generals in the mist of the conflict were waiting for saddam to use his WMD. So those that were below him in the chain of command were not aware that he actually had nothing besides chemical weapons and dud scuds.

during the invasion, all the troops had to wear mop suits (protection from chemical weapons). These are very cumbersome and quite frankly SUCK (will save a life it the mask and suit are on in less than 8 seconds tho). IT is like wearing a wet/dry suit in the Desert. Don't forget the 7lb m4 carbine loaded, another 15 lbs of ammo and gear that could range anywhere from 60 - 110 lbs.
Now if we knew that there was no WMD, do you really think it was necessary to issue MOP gear? Especially if Woodland was issued in desert climate?

the water is down the river and now we have to find a way to fix the future, learn from the past. If not the debate could go on forever.... was it the chicken or the egg??

let's stay on topic, guys.

in looking at this market relative to the 2000/2001 bear market, one could say we're in the bottoming phase experienced right before 9/11. taking that black swan type event out, the market bottom stayed in tact for another 6 to 8 months. i could see this most recent bottom being similar and staying in tact until the new president comes into office, at which time a new violent bottom will be reached some time in the beginning of '09.

of course, if the credit contraction becomes so severe that even government policy can't mitigate it, we could see a quicker drop off. and when comparing this bear market to that of 00/01, it seems like this market is unravelling quicker.

[Bill Cara note: We need to re-focus on the market. This other kind of political discussion is going to get more prevalent in the coming months because of the US election cycle, but that doesn't mean to say we need to re-hash it here.]

Moab,

It will be interesting to see what Vincent Bugliosi's case against George W. Bush leads to!

http://tinyurl.com/4kuvhm

All right guys, back on topic. I think the Yen free-money trade is ramping up to supply the hot-money guys with one more attempt to scale the walls DOW 12,000 before things tumble down, down, down again.

QT from 3:10 and Vinod from 4:26,

I agree with both your posts.

Constant study and keeping your nose to the grindstone and your eyes wide open and you wishes out of your trades will prove successful more times than not.

Usually when I lose it's when I throw my trading rules out the window and just gamble on how the policymakers will manipulate the market.

At those times I also see myself leading the dance instead of following like I should be.

That's the great thing about the market: you can never know everything and when you think you do you get body-slammed.

Bill,
I'm with you. I don't need to hear anything about the election. I couldn't care less about it since Ron Paul isn't in it anymore.

Rob.

korvus,

Bill Cara 100 stock ATVI was renamed on July 10 to ATVID. In the RSI application the price is stuck at $30.07.

Monty

Thanks again for everyone's contributions. I'm learning a lot about the market and trading but also a lot about myself.

After hanging on to some junior miners through significant drops I have realized my psychological approach has been one of "fear of missed gain" as opposed to "fear of capital loss". Generally, I didn't want to miss a potential big up day in a junior so held on way too long causing a loss of capital. I also notice this in my decision making in other aspects of my daily life. Still learning.

Stv

Continuing with return to trading topics and since "learning about oneself" is mentioned... allow me to offer this read: http://tinyurl.com/5vua2o

Just found a list of oil price forecasts maybe of interest to others..

http://tinyurl.com/5axjx4

Thanks Vadym. Perfect timing.

By the way I'm in Victoria too.

Stv

stvh,

cool! We should arrange a cup of coffee when I return from vacation

Will do Vadym. I'd like that.

I'm away for a couple of weeks myself but will contact you through your website closer to the end of the month.

Stv

I think hot money is driving financial higher so HB&B and other financial company can issue secondary offerings

Stocks Are Cooking on Low Heat
By MICHAEL KAHN Barron

Given weak technicals, the durability of the bear-market rally is now in question.

INVESTORS OFTEN ASK HOW WE CAN TELL THE DIFFERENCE between a bull market and a rally in a bear market. Charting experts will argue many points from choppiness in price action to limited participation in the rally by various sectors of the market.

I argue that it is all of the above. This confirms that the current rally is of the bear-market variety. And while it can move higher in its current condition, its days are starting to become numbered.

The phrase "fits and starts" is a good one to apply to today's market. Each time traditional technical signals fire off short-term buys, the following few days are spent declining. Joy turns to gloom, and then, when it seems really dark, the market kicks into high gear for a super day or two of gains.

Followers of Elliott Wave analysis are familiar with the term "impulse wave," which is just a strong price move in the direction of the major trend. It is marked by strong momentum and heavy volume as investors act with conviction. Even in a bear market, investors can sell with conviction -- heavy volume and urgency to trade -- to create downside impulses.

In contrast, corrections are marked by lower activity and technical indicators that do not confirm the action. For a bear market, the correction is, of course, to the upside. And we should see diminishing volume as the fuel for the rally -- bottom-fishers scooping up cheap stocks and short-sellers covering their bets -- is used up.

That is what is happening in the current marketplace.

WFMI - hasn't filled the gap...

Blowout preventer,

I can't say there is anything "good" about war, but at times good people are forced to participate. Conditions are usually far more complex than we can comprehend and a mix of right and wrong. I believe most people would get along fine — it's the leaders' grandiose plans which cause the conflicts.

I' m currently reading U.S. Grant's memoirs in which he says he was opposed to our war with Mexico (which he fought as a young man) due to the phoniness of the reasons claimed when, as it so often is, acquiring territory was the goal.

The latest book by Sen. James Webb, (D) VA, "A time to Fight," is extremely interesting due to his personal history. Viet Nam Company CO, USMC, Ass't Sec. Defense and later Sec. of Navy under Reagan. (which he resigned)

His article on why we should not invade Iraq for the WSJ is direct and clear, but like many other professional military men, his opinions were ignored. The article was never printed.

His knowledge of Rumsfeld and Cheney gave him special insights.

http://www.jameswebb.com/articles/articles_main_page.htm

re: Market bottom

It seems to me that this bear market has a number of things which make it worse and more unpredictable than the 1974, 1981, 199? or 2000.

The derivatives being the biggest single category, but the massive gov. involvement in the ongoing bailouts amount to the nationalization of the banks. This was the first thing in Great Britain's move toward socialism begun in 1947.

The mortgages were padded for what — about six or seven years? However long, it would be the last ones which had to be the most out of bounds and therefore the last ones to show on the write-off list.

Then there are the credit card saddled consumers who will find it impossible to pay their ordinary, fairly arranged mortgages if one or the other partner loses a job.

I'm expecting it to take years to work through the full cycle.

vinod- reference your 426pm post-> you're absolutely right, my friend...i'm going to be trying a different approach..

you're up quite a bit YTD (guessing 25-30%)...after dropping to a MINUS 4% a few weeks ago when caught without an umbrella during the sell-off in financials, i'm now back to being up 14%...that's good enough, man...we've both benefited from sheer luck, and no need to press it further..

here's my take: there is NO conviction in the market (either way) right now, and plenty of confusion...when there's confusion, there's no clear shot at playing against the crowd, right...so why play at all-> when you can't read the market, the smart move for contrarians is to fold, grab a Coke, and watch the game...

i'm going to wait for the next set-up...buying SLW yesterday was an 'easy' trade, and i regret not deploying more capital...sold half today, and now i'm wondering why i didn't sell it all-> how many chances do you get to make 8% in one day?

..in other words, the plan is 100% cash until the next trade i can't refuse comes along...;)

2nd
I feel that we are given 40 years of experience of Bill
And also of countless other member of this community.

I must use this knowledge to get bigger bang for my buck
Market may go up or down it does not matter but I must produced result every week, this is my goal
This week so far I am down a bit. At end of each week if there is nothing to show for
Is not acceptable,
Like a guy at Wall Street firm if he can not produce he will be replaced
I must be spending over 20 hours a week on market. And the capital I use.
If I compare that to if I go to work part time how much I will be making?

2nd
Also will buy SLW/WGW/UXG I have list of these stock
It is not possible to get them at bottom; they may go down 10% after my entry
Will put 7% of capital in to it if return is 50% in next 12 month?

Grym,

If you were around Texas, I'd enjoy sitting down and discussing these issues over some Carne Asada and a couple of cold Modelo Especials.

The thing I find so interesting about the capital markets is that I find them to be the intersection of all influences upon "humanity"--political, sociological, economic, military, etc.

I am continually trying to learn to keep my macro views out of my trading decisions and focusing on price. This community helps, and I'm so glad it is here.

"There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play."

-- Jesse Livermore

vinod

Just my opinion.... may want to consider holding off a couple days on the gold & silver buys. The bounce you saw today and maybe these next 2-3 days was due to it being oversold earlier. I expect this rally to continue for another week, maybe two, and that mostly like means oil & comodities will be falling even more.

Just something to think about from someone who sees it different.

As they say DDYOD, BYOB and ASAP.... :-)

Blowout Preventer

Do you work in the oil gas industry?

Vinod

From Rob of Wallaston Investments

"Stock Market Bottom? Not Yet"

http://tinyurl.com/5acu58

Not the last line or two:

"Its been 3 weeks since the lows, and we did not have a 90% Upside Day quickly after the rally began. Some of the best market timers I know view the recent rallies as primarily short-covering by hedge funds rather than accumulation from investors. Bottom line: A classic Bear Market rally, one that could run for a few more weeks. My best guess is to 12,250 - 12,500."

Not:Note [sorry it's late]

See you at the opening bell.

vinod- does it have to be every week? it's like the difference between working hard and working smart...i'm all for working hard, but what if working smart gives you better returns? sometimes working smart means hardly working..on the other hand, i've had days with multiple trades working simultaneously and it seemed like i couldn't lose...

OG,

that quote from Jesse IMO is a (very) rare case when it's not applicable anymore. It was probably true in the markets with volumes of the time (fraction of today's?), number of stocks traded (again, nowhere near today's), and speed of information flow and changes dictated by absence of today's means of communication, much "bigger world" back then, and dozen of other factors. Just as with many other aspects of life, less events were packed in any givem day, week or month. And even in those times jesse was day trading before he started operating bigger line of capital which would have no liquidity to be absorbed intraday.

QT:

I'm a white-collar professional that works "around" the oil and gas industry at the present time. But in my life I've worn the green (and desert-camo brown) collar of the U.S. military and I once worked in the Texas oil patch to pay my way through college, hence the user name.

2nd,

You saying you're out of ESLR?

vinod- this is somewhat off-topic, but i think it's relevant to understanding how i 'play' the market when i'm not investing (and i haven't had money 'invested' for almost a year and a half now)- playing sentiment is very similar (IMO) to gaming...i know what the 'straight-up' odds are for any given game, but i'm not going to play at an empty table-> the visual and auditory cues you get from playing at a crowded table sweeten the odds (IMO)...i'm not sure i can explain how seeing the arrangement of chips/size of bets on a craps table or hearing the whoops around it contribute to sizing up the odds, but i know they stack them in your favor...i can honestly say i have never walked away without a smile when i play a crowded table...make of that what you will...the same 'gestalt' applies to trading- when i can't read the market for a stock it's like playing an empty room...when the right mix of cues comes together, it's like reading/hearing the 'tells' around a crowded table and you have heightened odds of being right...

Reg Crowder,
I enjoyed your "knol" and hope you'll post here as you update it (I assume that's OK with Bill), but what I really want is one of Kimmie's offspring :)

I don't know where I got that idea. Sorry.

shark- how many times have i traded ESLR this year? right now i'm out...when i get ready to 'invest' in ESLR, i'll let you know...it doesn't change my opinion it will hit 18 before next july...

i'm probably also the only person here posting comparisons of trading and gambling (and peter lynch can 'dis' gambling all he wants), but i have to call it the way i see it-> day trading and gambling have much in common (as always, it's just my opinion) in that you are playing a combination of odds and psychology...

Vad,
Thanks for the link to your article. It is so true for the kind of trading I'm slowly breaking out of. The worst emotion to ruin a trade is hope and stops prevent hope from turning a bad trade into a ruinous one. Thanks.

Rob.

I never presumed your opinion changed regarding the price target. Wondering if you'd like to double down, so to speak. If it fails to get to 13 would you buy me Vadym's book also? If it Does hold 18 on July 6 I will buy you any book you want.

This market has been mainly gambling since the crash last August. Look how many surprise interventions we've had since then especially during options expiration week.

And how about the 17 protected stocks now that Bill Gross says are safe under the umbrella.

And how about the Treasury promising to speculate openly in the stock market with FRE and FNM if needed. You can bet they were there today propping it up.

You're right on the mark with saying there's no "investing" now. And I'll go further and say that it's been longer than a year and a half. It's been since summer of 06 when Paulson took over the Treasury.

Rob.

if it fails to hit hit 13 before july i'll buy the book and ship it to Vad for his autograph before forwarding it to one of the wealthiest enclaves in the US, my man...if it's above 19 next july, well, hey- i'll wait for an autographed copy of the great amercian novel when you get around to writing it...

A quickie - where can I find RS scores for Cara 100 stocks?

thanks.

I do promise to autograph if for you. Just as soon as I write it. Possible titles:

1) Don't panic...It's only money

2) Daytrade your way to Arteriosclerosis

3) Into Thin Air...How I lost a million dollars in the stock market

And my personal favorite:

4) Bigger than life...Gain 40 pounds and a twitching, nervous tick in only 7 hours a day!

c3- try this:

http://tinyurl.com/48zyne

LOL- the great american NOVEL (i know you're up to it, man), not the great american self-help book...

Check this out. Anyone wondering if the government's pockets are deep enough to cover FRE and FNM will be interested. It's also quite telling as to why Asian investors may sell 800 Billion worth of FRE and FNM securities back to the treasury.

If Paulson really does completely bail them out we'll be looking at a 15-20 Trillion dollar debt. It makes you wonder when people will stop buying our bonds. Who could think we'll ever pay off this debt?

http://tinyurl.com/5nchb2

Rob.

Leavitt Bros thinks a bottom may be near in SWC based on increased volume. Initiated partial position today @ 7.33/share.

shark,
That is so funny. Great post. I feel like all of those some days.

Rob.

GARZARELLI: "The problem with the stock market is that the earnings from the analysts on Wall Street is much too high. Actually, it is 42 percent above my estimate and that's my specialty. I'm a corporate profit economist and 42 percent deviation is what I saw in 1987 and what I saw in 1990."

GARZARELLI: "30 percent is a "sell" signal, which we got earlier this year; 65 percent would be a buy signal and currently they're below 50. So they've got to go quite a way up to get to 65 percent."

Hi Cyderman,

Thanks for the kind words. Kimmie isn't going to be giving any of us offspring. I had those parts taken out shortly after I rescued her.

However, I shall, indeed, return to This Hallowed Place and share any further lessons in survival or investing (Is there a difference?) that my beloved dog Kimmie gives to me.

As long as you've lured me into the community, I, too, have a bizarre TV interview to share. I had Bloomberg Europe running in the background yesterday (Wednesday). Bill Gross, who manages the world's biggest bond fund, came on.

He casually explained that all of those supposedly "standby powers" to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will have been fully exercised by the end of this coming September. That's why he was comfortable owning Fannie and Freddie bonds -- the Treasury will own both federally-chartered corporations (through preferred shares) in a matter of weeks.

Gross said the whole point of the Treasury buying $30-billion of new, to-be-issued preferred shares in Fannie and Freddie was to protect the interests of Foreign Sovereign Investment Funds, Foreign Central Banks "and a few funds like us." (That's PIMCO).

He said he figured that after the Treasury had satisfied its obligations to the bond holders, the holders of the preferred shares would take what little else might be left. Gross held out little hope of the holders of the underlying common shares ever getting anything.

Gross avoided using the term "bailout," by the way. He called it a "partnership" and a "combination." I think that's the kind of partnership you get when you take a loan from the Mob to renovate your restaurant in the Bronx, NY.

Inasmuch as I predicted all of this (the crunch, not the bailout) in March of 2007, I'm not bleeding because of any of this. Yet, it certainly offers some food for thought for the future. I guess if I have a problem with the U.S. Treasury, I need to have somebody from the Kingdom of Bahrain make a call for me ...

REG CROWDER
International Investing

ALOHA !!

ON THE GREAT NATIONAL SHRUG
I am often surprised at how banks are failing at a regular rate now yet people can't even spell the word GOLD yet ... This could be a TV commercial filed under community service announcement: "We are now approaching another weekend ... DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOUR BANK IS?" I mean we lost the fifth largest investment bank in America and its as if BSC didn't matter. It was a collective "brain fart"! We just nationalized two icons of the American Dream ... another "brain fart" on the fiat richter scale! We lost one of the largest cities in America(New Orleans)to Katrina and its been years and yet nobody really cares if New Orleans ever gets rebuilt now! Whole neighborhoods are sitting there condemned and rotting vacant lots like a WAR ZONE. We still have Katrina refugees out in America wandering the streets, like they do in Africa only our refugees here get paychecks! HA!!

The notion that the FDIC will backstop all US deposits is how "ALL OUR BEST THINKING GOT US HERE"! Why hasn't the Average Joe thought past Monday Night Football? Here is one possible answer from the Cunning Realist website. This is an excerpt since the rest deals with Susskind's new book about governmental deception.

READ ON:
One Hundred Billion Mark Nation

I'm beginning to think if we learned tomorrow that an asteroid was about to destroy the planet, the story would come in a sleepy third to Paris Hilton and breaking news on Beijing's air quality. If Suskind's revelation elicits little more than a national and congressional yawn, Thomas Mann probably explained it best:

The market woman who demanded in a dry tone "one hundred billion" mark for a single egg had lost during inflation her ability to be amazed at anything. Since that time nothing was so mad or so atrocious that it could have caused any awe in people anymore.

Again, inflation is simply a symbol for any period of profound institutional failure to which the public becomes inured.

If that sort of psychological trauma explains our great national shrug, it has important implications -- not only for where one might want to live, work, own property, raise kids, and certainly invest money and keep savings, but for where it's safe to do so.(more)

ALOHA !!

REG CROWDER posted this tonight "Inasmuch as I predicted all of this (the crunch, not the bailout) in March of 2007, I'm not bleeding because of any of this. Yet, it certainly offers some food for thought for the future. I guess if I have a problem with the U.S. Treasury, I need to have somebody from the Kingdom of Bahrain make a call for me ..."

I have an insight you may not have thought of but your comments about the Kingdom Of Bahrain just sent shivers down my spine and my light bulb went "CLICK"! I just posted about the "two icons of the American Dream", which is a reference to FNM and FRE getting nationalized CHAVEZ style.

Really what we are seeing is the evolution of a two currency monetary system. One currency. the preferred shares, protects the wealth of foreigners whom the US government is dependent upon for its survival and so are US Banks(MER and Temesk). The other US currency is for the WE THE PEOPLE where we inherit the toxic waste of banks and foreigners and PIMCO ... the CLASS C notes if you will.

I guess these people like Paulson and Gross figure this con game will not be noticed by the citizens of America ... so far he would be right!

"Partnership" you say Bill Gross? You mean like the "partnership" between Hitler and Mussolini?

QUESTION AUTHORITY ...

ALOHA !!

Are you paying attention CIA? Rosoro better hurry up and grab KRY! HA!! This is how revolutions start as Fidel has no doubt already informed Chavez ...

READ ON:
Venezuelans protest Chavez's new socialist push
Aug 6, 9:14 PM (ET)
By IAN JAMES

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Riot police used tear gas Wednesday to block hundreds of Venezuelans protesting the latest moves by President Hugo Chavez to concentrate his power. The demonstrators said a blacklist of opposition candidates and a series of socialist decrees are destroying what's left of their democracy.

Though the protest of about 1,000 people chanting "freedom!" was small compared to past marches, there is a growing public outcry over the sidelining of key government opponents ahead of state and local elections in November.

Chavez opponents also are outraged by 26 laws the president just decreed, some of them mirroring the socialist measures voters rejected in a December referendum.

"We said in the referendum that we didn't want that, and now he's put it in the decrees," said protester Josefina Bravo, a 59-year-old who wore a sticker reading "No means no" on her baseball cap. "That's the problem we have: All the powers are concentrated in the president."(more)

ALOHA !!

Celebs be cautious ... Your fawning over OBAMA may have serious consequences for your careers later.

This is exactly my sentiment:
Poll: Nearly half hearing too much about Obama

Wed Aug 6, 10:47 AM ET

WASHINGTON - Barack Obama may be the fresh face in this year's presidential election, but nearly half say they're already tired of hearing about him, a poll says.(more)

LOOK OUT GEORGE!
Hollywood megastar to host fundraiser for Obama
Posted: 06:26 PM ET

From CNN's Emily Sherman

(CNN)—Academy award winning actor George Clooney is set to host a fundraiser for Barack Obama in Switzerland next month.(more)

OKAY ... I guess this is all celebs are good for in Washington DC ...

Obama taps celebs to woo high end donors.
By
Lynn Sweet
on August 6, 2008 12:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (13)

Presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), heavily reliant on major donors and celebrities despite his public emphasis on small contributors, upped the ante this week to enter his VIP donor world. A new high was set Monday for hosting or chairing an Obama event; chairs of his birthday fund-raiser in Boston had to raise $285,000; co-chairs needed to collect $142,500.

Meanwhile, a string of celebrities from the entertainment world are helping Obama raise campaign money in August and September: Bruce Hornsby; Luciana & Matt Damon and Jennifer Garner & Ben Affleck, Star Jones; Kal Penn; Mira Nair; Ellen Pompeo; Justin Chambers and Scarlett Johansson. Leon Fleisher, Yo Yo Ma and Itzhak Perlman will perform at an Obama fund-raiser in Phoenix next month.(more)

LOOK OUT ... Star Jones your career might get tarnished! HA!!

http://tinyurl.com/6do8ns

Word Games

When Richard Syron says preferred shares might be sold by FRE to raise new capital, it sounds as if he's attempting to insulate common share holders from dilution or flight. I wondering who the preferred share holders are/will be and how this might affect the common shareholder...

Chicken - I'd say the preferred are the sovereign wealth funds of the middle east

jacksoo - I'm anticipating common shareholder flight if the sale of preferred shares proceeds.

vad - The Jesse quote was in response to 2nd's remarks re "not getting a read on direction, taking the hit" and the following:

"here's my take: there is NO conviction in the market (either way) right now, and plenty of confusion...when there's confusion, there's no clear shot at playing against the crowd, right...so why play at all-> when you can't read the market, the smart move for contrarians is to fold, grab a Coke, and watch the game...".

The above seem in accord with Jesse's quote.

Also in response to vinod's statement:
"When I started this OEX, I was advise do not trade every day. Wait for extreme in DOW. Do only five or six time a year. And what happen? I got carried away."

Note that Jesse didn't argue against day trading, but simply cautioned against feeling as though you ALWAYS (key word!) have to be "in the market" whether or not trends are clear and conditions favorable to success.

chicken - with the s**t the US public seem prepared to take from their Gov and the Fed using their money to bailout Wall St I very much doubt that anything will get them off their a**e - if this was happening in Europe their really would be riots in the streets - not advocating thats the solution by the way but I'm constantly surprised by how much the US public will take -perhaps its a function of a dist roted media?

photogrey - Futures down on AIG news, are you still holding SKF?

Blowout preventer,

We're a long way apart geographically (Illinois here), but your "intersection of influences" list unites us all.

The idea of globalization is considered to be new, but Asian cultures have always seemed to realize everything effects all else — for better or worse — and always has. Our western "Think Tanks" need to have this tattooed on their foreheads.

My age and cynicism prevent me from the kind of trading I am reading of here, but the opinions and insights I find valuable even when considering my conservative (macro) mindset toward investing.

The closest I have come to day trading was around the millennium when my graphics business was evaporating and, since I needed to stay near my phone anyway, I did trade one stock only from its first day public until its fad ran the course. Krispy Kreme Donuts (KKD) was like a rocket, soaring and then bursting.

I managed to replace what my mutual funds lost (30% in three months) in the 2000 downturn in only a few months. Now I tell friends my wife and I lived on donuts for a year :-)

I have a quote in front of me which we can all remember and I hope profit from.

"No one, as far as I know, has ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of plain people." H.L. Menchen, 1926.

I suspect those in government — worldwide — have come to the same conclusion.

Best of luck to you.

OG,

totally agree. Our ability to pick our battles and not be in the market all the time is great advantage. What you said provides the context for that quote. I just see it often being cited as an argument against FREQUENT trading while it's in fact, just as you say, is an argument against CONSTANT trading... si I wanted to chime in for clarity sake :)

jacksoo - For some reason unbeknownst to me, the US public remains faithful to government oversight. Perhaps because they'd rather have thugs working for them as opposed to against. A symbiotic relationship.

Anyway, I'm reasonably certain this faith will not be reflected in FRE/FNM common shareholder portfolios unless the GSE bailout proceeds in the form of preferred shares.

I love the quote Grym!

Chickenpookie,
"For some reason unbeknownst to me, the US public remains faithful to government oversight."
IMO:
For some it's faith. We want to believe our government is striving for the goals in the Preamble to the Bill of Rights — providing for the general welfare. (While some are, they are outnumbered and there is no cavalry coming.)
For others it's conditioning. We're told, "Be sure to vote." Write your representative." (Been there...done that...)
We're a nation of the people, by the people and for the people."
Now we have 24/7 updates — CNBC, the major networks, financial pubs — and even live C-SPAN from congressional committees investigating so in the future "all will be well."
Although events run counter to individual experiences, people are quick to accept reassurances.
And last but by no means least — we have no individual influence and not the time to organize another Tea Party.
There is no substitute for personal monetary oversight — that's why I come here.