Food stocks
After the bear market, or just a little later than today, what about looking at the shares about food?
I know that many of you have already discussed this matter. What about preparing a list of companies (or soft commodities) or also ETF (or even good closed funds) about food processing, fertilizers, and similar?
I suppose that no matter what kind of crisis we will have (depression, recession, slowdown), the flow of paper money now in the hands of Asia, and other parts of the world, will make some pressure on the big amount of food requested by the new middle class. What do you think?
Unfortunately I don't know this sector, but I'm sure some of you are experts. I like very much Argentina, because it's a big producer of meat and soy, and I think it can still get a good business there, but I'm afraid that the big mess in their politics (and hence in the currency instability) is a big question mark for now.
Anyway, just to start the talk, I'm thinking of stocks like TNH (the p/e seems so good!), IPI (maybe too young?), AGU, CF, MOS, SYT, POT (but p/e is high now).

Good morning.

There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

---------------------------------------------------

Have a great and profitable day.

Bill's note ought to appear as a letter to the editor in every major newspaper in America. Voters need to heard this type of straight talk. I haven't heard a single talking head from either side offer such direct advice. All we get is self-serving blather.

Separately, I sold into the UNG pre-mkt rally.

Bill, Great insight as usual. Thank you.

Is there a reason why you pick "food" sector? The fertilizers have their run and are trading in tandem with commodity, although they haven't dropped as sharply as other commodity. TNH has very low PE, but be aware of high dividends for the preferred shares. I've traded CF. CF and POT's momentum has slowed and on the verge of turning the trend. (Both are not far from 200MA). We are heading into low planting seasons. But, fertilizer sells in advance. So, I am not sure what the seasonality be for these stocks since they've been going only one direction in the past 18 months. DE, BG, LNN, VMI all peaked. Like to hear what others' opinion. .

Sorry, my mis-read. it was Lelik on food stocks.

Hurricane Gustav:

note the average error ranges in forecasting track and intensity:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

..then look at the 5-day track forecast cone:

http://tinyurl.com/6yaaor

NGas futures have been down as much as 5%, oil futures up as much as 0.8%...lots of bets being placed...

ksobo2000- david walker on 60 minutes did not make a dent...people hear what they want to hear; i don't think they're ready to listen...

sorry, above post should read: NGas futes have been UP as much as 5%, oil futes DOWN as much as 0.8%...

ksobo- and congrats on the UNG trade...

2nd

I hear you on Gustav. But looking at UAUA, DIG and DUG, I don't think they're doing what they're doing on the $. And given how Fay kinda' had a mind of her own, back and forth, back and forth. Gustav will probably cause some squirrely stock behavior

TSO holders

Has anyone heard of any rumors of TSO being a possible byout target?

Eric Bolling [formerly of fast Money] in an article on his stock picks based on which party wins the election had this to say

"In a McCain win, I think investors are overlooking the refiners. Refining margins have been decimated due to the high cost of their feedstock, crude oil. With high gas prices putting pressure on demand and high crude oil costs pressuring margins, refiners have been getting it from both ends, so to speak.

If McCain wins, I like the whole refining sector with few exceptions. Specifically, I think Hess is in a position to boost profits thanks to the hefty amount of diesel production needed by the transportation industry.

I still like Chevron as well. I know they are more of an integrated oil play, but the company's access to the U.S. West coast gasoline market will provide added margins.

And Tesoro, before refining margins got hammered, was rumored to be a buyout target. With margins improving, a potential buyer may feel more comfortable spending big bucks to buy Tesoro.

[Bill Cara note:

I keep reading this stuff, eg, Rep: oil, defense, pharma, and
Dem: (whatever). That stuff sells magazines; we trade prices.]

nemo- i think it's the Cat 2 call that has some people betting wild:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN HAITI LATER TODAY.

nemo- brief summary of the cross-currents:

http://tinyurl.com/65ebqg

"NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures reversed early losses to trade higher Tuesday, as geopolitical concerns escalated further after Russia said it formally recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two breakaway regions in Georgia. Crude oil for October delivery soared 91 cents to $116.01 a barrel in electronic trading on Globex. Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev said in a statement Tuesday that he has signed decrees formally recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Oil traders also eyed concerns about a slowdown in global oil demand as well as the likelihood that Hurricane Gustav might disrupt oil supplies in the Gulf of Mexico. U.S. dollar strength appeared to cap gains in the energy complex. Separately, September natural gas futures soared 5.2% to trade at $8.23 per million British thermal units."

Perhaps Gustav will bring with it a buying opp for UAUA in the $10s which one could ride out to $14 - anyone thinking similar?

Can you short stocks in the pre-market?

ST07 and 2nd,

I'm not sure I'm as concerned about Georgia in Asia as I am Gustav hitting Georgia in the US. If it becomes a cat 2 by Haiti, what'll it be when it gets to the Gulf? That would put the UAUA trade IMO and as a member of DENSA, off until that resolves itself. The combination of the two will likely keep oil static regardless of the report tommorrow

Bad numbers for housing

http://tinyurl.com/5c28e5

As a follow up: I think I read a couple of months ago where the Thunderhorse platform was still off-line because of damage sustained during Katrina.

ST07- i like your thinking...given that it's dropped $2 at the open on nothing more than a (manipulated) one-day rise in crude, why stop at 10...weak hands losing sleep for the next 5 nights could take it down much farther...

Schleppy, that report hasn't stopped the Bloomberg editors from spinning positive.

http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html

Remember yesterday the political discussion and I mentioned how McCain probably didn't know about how many houses his wife had because he probably didn't care. He made this comment on Leno:

" Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- John McCain used an appearance yesterday on NBC's Tonight Show to defend his wife's wealth, and bristled when host Jay Leno asked how many houses he owned.

``Could I just mention to you, Jay, that, in a moment of seriousness, I spent five and a half years in a prison cell,'' McCain said, referring to his detention as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. ``I didn't have a house. I didn't have a kitchen table. I didn't have a table. I didn't have a chair.''

RE: possible hurricane

The more that Gustav stays south of Cuba, two things happen. It avoids weakening by crossing land, and it redirects it more into the western part of the Gulf of Mexico - more towards Louisiana and Texas.

http://tinyurl.com/66bx2l

I watch this stuff pretty closely because of my location in SW FL.

Mackinaw

how about that magic number now?
re my;

"Golds recent run from 772.70 has a fifty % fib level of 805.74 and gold has a fairly reliable habit of doing 50% retraces. That area is right at the downtrend from June 21 high and just above horizontal support so taken together the odds are pretty good buying will appear there."

it reversed within a dollar and we are handsomely up ,it's magic

Food Stocks - You can find some "seasonality charts" on actual "food" items at this link:

http://tinyurl.com/5tw3oh

Of course, beyond Seasonals, some events such as the humongous floods that destroyed much of our agricultural distribution, planted fields, and storage negatively affect companies such as ADM and positively affect seed/fertilizer companies such as mentioned in earlier posts.

Also, changing international trade can alter historical food sales perspectives. For example, SFD might have gotten a nice boost from sales of pork to China (and might do so again in the furture?).

Just some thoughts.

``Could I just mention to you, Jay, that, in a moment of seriousness, I spent five and a half years in a prison cell,'' McCain said, referring to his detention as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. ``I didn't have a house. I didn't have a kitchen table. I didn't have a table. I didn't have a chair.''

I expect that will be his answer to every challenging question he gets this season. It's going to get threadbare very fast.

Bill, Right on as usual.

Your three point platform would get my vote. Unfortunately no one cares about individual voters, just big blocks. Unless we storm the Capitol with pitchforks and golf clubs they will only continue down this stupid path. Reminds me of a book by Barbara Tuchmann, "The March of Folly."

Russian declaration drives up gold...

President Dmitry Medvedev has declared that Russia formally recognises the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The move, in defiance of a specific plea from the US president, provoked a wave of protest from Western countries.

Analysts say the move is likely to further escalate tensions between Russia and the West.

Western countries, including the US, Germany, Britain and France immediately condemned the move.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, speaking from the West Bank city of Ramallah, said the decision was "regrettable".

The BBC's Humphrey Hawksley, in Moscow, says the recognition is bound to dramatically heighten tensions in Russia's already fragile relationship with the West.

He says this and a series of other announcements indicate that Russia is preparing itself for a showdown.

http://tinyurl.com/6kfgh4

I'm not buyin this Obama stuff. Just 'cause a couple of city kids got into the ivy league on an affirmative action ticket doesn't make them fit to lead the free world. I think that when push comes to shove, McCain has got a lot of material to work with in this election.

n2S....the spin has to make you laugh.

I think the S&P/Case-Shiller is the most accurate measure of the housing market. This is one data point I am keeping an eye for when we might be able to say the economy as a whole is starting to turn.

The other is auto sales.

shark, your latent bigotry is showing through your skirt.

give it a rest, pal.

Why don't you give it a rest if you're gonna talk like that, or I'll give it a rest for you you.......

Ooops:

"Some Russian troops also continue to operate near the Black Sea port of Poti, south of Abkhazia, where Russia says it will carry out regular inspections of cargo.

The US said on Tuesday that its warships would deliver aid to Georgia's port of Poti, which is under Russian control. The move could mean US and Russian forces coming face-to-face. "

And I have every right to express my latent bigotry, if that is indeed what I'm expressing.

The real racists are those who support Obama BECAUSE he's black. Duh.

This market is full of crap, pardon my French but there is no substance to it these days

video on
oprah backing
OBAMA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHRwAqxZ0g8

-

Boys!!!

Sharkster, give credit where credit is due. Obama puts on a great performance.

2nd, there seems to be fairly little in the way of material accomplishments for Obama.

He would have to develop an administration in the Reagan mold, surrounding himself w/people who knew what they were doing, that is if anyone in government knows what they're doing.

Great Taoist saying:

"True words are not fine sounding, fine sounding words are not true."

They're both ENTITLED to lead -

because Obama struggled to the top,

and because McCain suffered as a prisoner of war.

So, shut up, America, just listen, and pick one! LOL

Obama didn't struggle his way to the top.

He got into Harvard on an Affirmative Action ticket, got hired at a white-shoe law firm making tons of money (who initially hired him because he was black and competent), and then he ran for the Illinois Senate and beat the racial huckster who had previously held the office. I'm not saying there was zero struggle involved, heck, just getting up in the morning can be a struggle. But his kind of success isn't impossible...He's living proof that it isn't.

All always wondered about that phrase "white-shoe" law firm; I've helped companies pay their fair share of billable hours, and those BigLaw attorneys always wore black or cordovan ;-)

well educated speech writers craft what will best attract voters, and public relations/psychologists put the pieces together,

the politicians are nothing more than the delivery system.

---------------------

gold having a nice little spike, lets see if it can crest above $830..

Kennedy - Still with his dribble on health care. I didn't hear anything on how universal health care might be paid for.... I'm guessing HB&B won't be a volunteer. More government spending?

McCain - Uncooperative - It has been noted how John was belligerent toward his captors while in prison camp. It's nice being reminded he's a war veteran, there's an area where he's got a leg up. What's he going to do for the economy? I suggest he focus on gaining control over government spending.

Control over government spending...doubtful...it might get forced on them though by those who pay the bills

schleppy, now Bloomberg is spinning the new home sales numbers. No matter that they were below consensus estimate and prices are still falling.

Inventory plunged, the say? Oh, please.

Curious to see what the Fed minutes say this afternoon, how the markets react and of course the spin the talking heads give it.

Gotta question:

DIG/DUG DTO/DXO

What's the main difference between the two pairs?

Ever walk into a nice law firm...It smells vaguely like a dentist office, but slightly different.

Know what that smell is?
It's the smell of money.

That's what white shoe means. It means they're liars for hire on a high level (no, they won't defend your drunk-driving charge, but if you kill a couple of people with your car, come right in). And it's true, I can't stand lawyers. Can't stand em.

nemo - I've been witness to what I perceive as impressive research and comprehensive knowledge in a majority of your posts.

DIG/DUG/DTO/DXO are essentially the same as far as I'm aware (both 2x).

why is america so dependent on stories? backgrounds?

- voting record
- intentions
- capabilities

much of everything else: who has how many condos, who got into harvard on affirmative action, should be immaterial.

To add to the Political discourse: Jeff Saut, chief strategist at Raymond James, posted this at Minyanville this am. Full article http://tinyurl.com/6jf8l9

BTW Saut's posts have provided invaluable input to my trading strategy.

Again, bear in mind that I am indeed apolitical; none of these comments are sponsored by my firm. Also know that my bumper sticker reads, “Re-Elect No One.” And with these thoughts in mind, I urge you to consider the following, from syndicated columnist
Charley Reese:

“Politicians are the only people in the world who create problems and then campaign against them. Have you ever wondered why, if both the Democrats and the Republicans are against deficits, we have deficits? Have you ever wondered why, if all the politicians are against inflation and high taxes, we have inflation and high taxes?

"You and I don't propose a federal budget. The president does. You and I don't have the Constitutional authority to vote on appropriations. The House of Representatives does. You and I don't write the tax code. Congress does. You and I don't set fiscal policy. Congress does. You and I don't control monetary policy. The Federal Reserve Bank does.

“100 senators, 435 congressmen, 1 president and 9 Supreme Court justices - 545 human beings out of the 300 million - are directly, legally, morally and individually responsible for the domestic problems that plague this country. I excluded the members of the Federal Reserve Board because that problem was created by the Congress.

"In 1913, Congress delegated its Constitutional duty to provide a sound currency to a federally chartered but private central bank. I excluded all the special interests and lobbyists for a sound reason. They have no legal authority. They have no ability to coerce a senator, a
congressman or a president to do anything. I don't care if they offer a politician $1 million in cash. The politician has the power to accept or reject it.

“No matter what the lobbyist promises, it is the legislator's responsibility to determine how he votes. Confidence conspiracy: Those 545 human beings spend much of their energy convincing you that what they did is not their fault. They cooperate in this common con regardless of party. What separates a politician from a normal human being is an excessive amount of gall.

"...Replace the scoundrels. It seems inconceivable to me that a nation of 300 million cannot replace 545 people who stand convicted -- by present facts -- of incompetence and irresponsibility. I can't think of a single domestic problem, from an unfair tax code to defense overruns, that is not traceable directly to those 545 people. When you fully grasp the plain truth that 545 people exercise power of the federal government, then it must follow that what exists is what they want to exist.

“If the tax code is unfair, it's because they want it unfair. If the budget is in the red, it's because they want it in the red. If the Marines are in IRAQ, it's because they want them in Iraq.

"There are no insoluble government problems. Do not let these 545 people shift the blame to bureaucrats, whom they hire and whose jobs they can abolish; to lobbyists, whose gifts and advice they can reject; to regulators, to whom they give the power to regulate and from whom they can take this power.

nemo

DIG/DUG [oil co & oil service co]

DTO/DXO [oil itself]

"Sales of newly constructed U.S. single-family homes in July were lower than economists expected but rose from a June pace that was the slowest in nearly 17 years, a government report showed on Tuesday." - Reuters

Consider the statement starting with the "but". The fact that sales rose (barely)from the lowest point in 17 years says nothing.

It reminds me of an e-mail a CEO sent out to all employees at a bank I used to work at. Our stock had been getting hammered and was down like 30-40% and was at it's 52 week low. The next day or two it was up like 6-7% and he had the audacity to send out an e-mail stating how strong the company and the stock was....also saying that our market cap is bigger than GM's. Like that's something to brag about.

Except DIG/DUG have gas exposure, where DTO/DXO are Crude specific.

Who got into Harvard on an Affirmative Action ticket is not immaterial. I recognize that some get in based on legacy, some donate money to build a wing, etc, so my gripe isn't just with A.A. It's with the entire culture of privilege that places a less qualified candidate above a more qualified candidate on the basis of birth, wealth, OR race.

In addition, Obama used to do drugs, marijuana and coke. Do you want someone like that in the White House again. Weren't Billy-Bob Clinton and the present guy enough dopes for you?

CLOSE THE BORDERS!
DEPORT THE ILLEGALS!
SAVE THIS ONCE GREAT NATION!

WHERE THE HELL IS THE CANDIDATE WHO WANT TO DO THOSE THINGS?

[Bill Cara note:

What does this stuff have to do with the market? Take it elsewhere. You are trying everybody's patience here.]

Pookster:

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Another interesting thing about DIG/DUG is if you are an option investor you can get a much better play in a trend reversal either buying the Put or Call

Nemo

DIG
EXXON MOBIL CORP COM STK
CHEVRON CORP COM STK
CONOCOPHILLIPS COM STK
SCHLUMBERGER COM USD
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP
DEVON ENERGY CORP(NEW)
APACHE CORP COM STK
TRANSOCEAN INC. (NEW) COM
HALLIBURTON CO COM STK
ANADARKO PETROLEUM CORP

DUG
twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index
Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM 25.07229819
Chevron Corp. CVX 10.85453138
ConocoPhillips COP 7.148783241
Schlumberger Ltd. SLB 6.348574586
Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY 3.979433363
Devon Energy Corp. DVN 2.569932564
Transocean Inc. RIG 2.416943752
Apache Corp. APA 2.414883205
Halliburton Co. HAL 2.287084362
Hess Corp. HES 1.919688288
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. APC

I asked about those energy etfs because I'm thinking that if one is focused more specifically on oil, and the other might have a larger service company component, which one is likely to react better if some of the gulf production gets shut in. If oil service companies can't work, might there revenue take a bit of a hit, and might that affect short term trading????

shark

http://tinyurl.com/5dx7sd

Can we stop with the politics? You guys are taking your eyes off the ball. We should be trying to figure out which sectors are going to lead the next bull market. Take the politics to one of the thousands of political blogs.

MER: holding 24, waiting for someone to sell
ZION: holding 25, waiting for someone to sell
KEY: holding 10.50, waiting for someone to sell

All of these are dead men walking and they are floating on support. I think the breakdown is coming when the OPM fools get back from the Hamptons.

There ya go. Thanks QT.

Put or Call of the opposite direction the trend has reversed to. (I'm not sure if that makes sense, but if you click around you'll see some real disparities in what are essentially the same play {a put on DUG is a call on DIG})

moab

T H A N K Y O U for that post!

moab may be referring to the list of dead men walking (dead banks) built by Benett Sedacca. The list is based on recent preferred shared offerings (successful or failed), dividends offered and cut, share price plunge, yields, debt, etc. The list includes:

Zion (ZION)
Keycorp (KEY)
Fifth Third Bank (FITB)
WaMu (WM)
National City (NCC)
GM/GMAC
Ford/FMCC
Wachovia (WTB)
Citigroup (C)

I am holding and continue to build a basket (caskets?) of puts of these future corpses. Do your DD...

Shark, I agree w/your gripe about the culture of privilege. It's unfair. However, IMO it's unimportant w/r/t backgrounds of presidential candidates, because success in the position is dependent on their capabilities, voting record, and intentions. These can be judged objectively. Issues about the number of condos McCain owns, whether Obama got an easy pass in college, drugs, are all ad hominem attacks that IMO, are immaterial.

That's immaterial, unless of course, you vote on someone's character. IMO, that "method" has nowhere near the relevance of voting on such characteristics as voting record, intentions, and capabilities.

So long as the dominant medium of political persuasion in this country is the thirty second television spot, we'll never be great again.

Nemo
DUG 23,000,000 ave volume
DIG 2,000,000 ave volume
DTO 1,000,000 ave volume
DXO 100,000 ave volume

Thank you Fatty for your considered and relevant opinion.

I would also like to thank moab for his suggestion; this is an investment blog. Politics should be mentioned as a peripheral concern and only as they refer to investments and stocks.

Kp,

Never thought I'd be a Bob Barr supporter, but as they say, strange bedfellows. If he defends the border, he's got my vote. It's the one issue we can actually DO something about.

Yes, I was referencing Sedacca's post, but I have been following these stocks for months. Also, as Bennett points out, there are many more dead men walking that he doesn't list. I think AGO, FED, NLY are some of them.

didn't oprah stop publically supporting obama after the pastor debacle at their church?

Russia. This could get interesting. We sometimes believe that putin is smart, only time will tell how smart he is. I don't believe he has a full deck to play with and the west has more cards in theirs. We also believed the ussr was very smart too.

Russia has horrible health care, Alcoholism is bad, inflation is at 14 plus percent, and their poulation is dwindling at around 500k per year which could go up. Last week their central bank announced forgein currency left out of country for a total of 14.5 bil or 3%. That is the highest number since the currency debacle in1998 almost the exact 10 year anniversary.

So if they say we can have our g8 and WTO, the west needs oil and gas more than russia needs the west. It makes me wonder did they hire one of our economic advisors? They need capital more than supplying nat resources. The oil and commodity boom will last a few more years but short term gain will be russia going back to long term pain for their citizens.

All of this drama could (use that word lightly) play well for McCain.

The tone in the blog is a bit tense today. For a lighter moment, read the WSJ article on the Tooth Fairy taking over Lehman:

http://tinyurl.com/6ggbo5

rknick: I noticed those volume differences, thanks. That is a factor in the decision.

Europe depends very heavily on Russian for oil and especially natural gas. I don't have the actual figures but the Russians were using that leverage to double the price of NatGas that they charged Europe when I was there a year ago, even threatening to cut off supplies all together.

I think pricking the bear with a missile shield in Poland and Czech and NATO on its immediate border is a terrible strategic decision. All NATO countries would have been at war with Russia had Georgia been a NATO member. Responding to Russian moves is one thing but provoking them is reckless.

shark,
as much as I try to stay focused on the capital markets as Bill has properly urged everyone to do, I could not hesitate with my last.
You search this website and you will not find any mention of Bob Barr. 'nuff said.

I'll go back to studying Keltner channels and bollinger bands!

SNDK- in at 14.61...

Re: Posted by: number2son at August 26, 2008 9:58 AM

I agree with your bigotry comment, but don't think it's latent.

Back from So. Cal. and thoroughly disappointed by the crap that is passing for meaningful political discourse here, with the exception of Bill's three point plan.

It seems all some have to work with is what can be seen on the surface. I didn't think melanin was a disqualifier, but it appears that former victims of racism and bigotry can't help but follow that pathetic example and turn it on others. I don't feel the need to go back in time to be a "mick" driving rail stakes. I don't see myself as Irish, Scottish, English or Spanish. I was born in this country and I'm AMERICAN. Likewise I don't feel the need to see others as some derogitory term or another, but as AMERICANS.

Why do you think we have ghettos and "little" (insert your nationality/country here)?
Evidence of idiocy.

I can think for myself and I don't want to be told how to feel or that I have to adopt someone else's substandard morals (or East coast social system). If you are deeply racist, don't try to justify it by telling the rest of us we are like you. We aren't.

How about we start by assuming we are all Americans and human, and stick to what we all want? You know, the Golden Rule. (Capital markets and social equity is my goal). Regardless of our backgrounds, we all want the same things and our former family nationalities have little to do with it.

Social equity starts inside.....within your character.

There are several excellent examples of this right here. Bill's character is unassailable because he provides us a window into his character everyday and understands his own history. The same would be true for 2nd who would defy identification if he didn't tell you.

These examples would be a good place to start.

I can't see, for example. how Rudy Giulianni would be a lesser leader based on his surname, anymore than Obama would be a lesser leader based on his melanin content or McCain based on his lack of melanin.

If we are to raise the level of performance in this country, it must start with the electorate.

[Bill Cara note:

Once I saw the earlier stuff, I had to ask myself, why do I need this? As Craig noted, although not coming out and saying it directly, if we are going to raise the level of trading skills and understanding here, we are going to have to revert to discussions about trading. TIA.]

Mr. Cara

Your comment was answered prayer. Thank you

Do you mean to say that your suggestion of Bob Barr wasn't in earnest? That it was a little humor at my expense? That's ok. I don't mind humor. The only humor people seem to mind is mine.

By the way, you don't have to study Bollinger Bands, you just kind of watch them do their thing. I wouldn't use Bollinger bands as an indicator really, as they are often violated to an extreme degree. Which you would think means oversold/overbought, but in fact, according to Bollinger means just the opposite. Bollinger states that an upper violation of the bands should really be interpreted as a sign of continuing strength.

Just about the only abiding trading principle that I've noticed lately is that the less certain a potential move looks, the more likely it is to occur. The more obviously correct a setup looks, the more likely it is to fail or not come to fruition. As a corrolary, the mopre time one has to contemplate a potential move, the more "generally observable" is is, the less it is to occur. Clearly, this dynamic, if true, makes our task no less dicey.

Been tracking MDR for re-entry. Supplier to utility industry for high pressure vessels (read: nuclear & tar sands).
Shark --- Yo Tambien

craig- welcome back

nemo, 2nd, moab,

What are your thoughts?

Http://tinyurl.com/asdcr

Bigpicture about the charts? Top of page.

shark-

"..about the only abiding trading principle that I've noticed lately is that the less certain a potential move looks, the more likely it is to occur. The more obviously correct a setup looks, the more likely it is to fail or not come to fruition. As a corollary, the more time one has to contemplate a potential move, the more "generally observable" is is, the less [likely] it is to occur."

that's why trading against the crowd works so often...

For shark:
http://stuffblackpeoplefeel.wordpress.com
http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com
I'm off to feed ducks...

shark,
I posted the Barr link in all seriousness.
the political discourse goes back and forth ad infinitum; I take it all in and enjoy it.
With the exception of Ron Paul, there's been no mention of anyone else beyond the two party-ocracy that grips the media and most of the electorate.
And I enjoy your trading perspectives as well, so thanks for that.

peace from SoFla...

norm- personally, i can't see how anyone could have had much success trading a trend recently (apart from shorting commodities)...

People, can we agree on postponing political discussions until the end of the trading day with the exception of immediate events that affect the market. I am guilty myself of occasional OT posting during trading hours but I promise to get better.

Folks!

I have to agree that the focus on politics should generally be in conjunction with how it affects trading and investment.

Obviously, weekend discourse sometimes take us in different directions, but that's o.k. As you've seen I wander off into my philosophical training, but I do try to frame it within the context of the discussions.

Sharkster, the more that things change, the more they stay the same. If someone is able to gain privilege for themselves that give them a leg up, then in their self-interest, that make sense. Bush I and II were both men of privilege. Whereas, Jessie Jackson was not, his children were through his ability to wrangle beer distributorships from Budweiser for their benefit. It plays across all classes, races and cultures. It is part of what makes us self-interested beings.

The issues you raise are real, but if we were to track all of the vectors of each issue, we'd find some very interesting results that then create that muddy gray area on how to resolve them.

Life will rarely be fair. As I've stated before (from my philosophical training) Life is a war-that's why a visitor to a traditional taoist temple is first greeted by a rack of weapons and battle standards.

I also wonder, as all things go through a normal lifecycle, if this once great nation is just following a natural progression of decay. The facts are: We are relatively financially bankrupt; We seem much more ready to lay blame at the feet of another, than take responsibility for our situation. The vast relative wealth of the post-WWII era has bred a generation (of which I am a part, and am one of these) of soft character and a certain sense of entitlement. Political discourse is superficial at best. THe wealth has been seemingly concentrated in a few, and Tocqueville's nightmare lf Leviathan bureaucracies operate the country.

Is it sad, from a certain perspective yes, but perhaps it is the natural order of things. That's why I don't get angry about it. I just try, for better and sometimes MUCH WORSE, to scrape out the best day I can from the system in which we all live. Look, my hair is gray and falling off the roof. Life's too short (well, maybe)

Frankly, this community helps much.

Peace&Quiet

this blog is really no different than an online trading room (Vad's would be a good example)...some off-topic comments flow, some don't...it should be easy for a poster to tell into which category it falls, and to save the latter for after-hours..

I just googled the David Walker interview on 60 minutes and find it interesting when he states that politicians are afraid to do what they need to do:

raise taxes and lower spending in order to get our fiscal deficit manageable over the LONG TERM (i.e., 30 years)

Isn't Barack Obama proposing this? Kudlow and the other talking heads on CNBC would like lower taxes because that means a better stock market in the short term while failing to discuss the impact this would have on the deficit in the long term.

norm,

I have to head out for awhile, but in general, I think it's going down for those reasons stated. What would be interesting is to see those charts adjusted for monetary inflation (Kaimu's job :)) Also, if derivatives are to be regulated, and I think we'll see some reduction in their use, how do you deflate all that nominal fantasy wealth without affecting the indices?

Let the lawsuits begin...

A United Arab Emirates bank sued Morgan Stanley, the Bank of New York Mellon Corp, and ratings agencies Moody's and S&P on Monday, accusing them of fraud in operating a fund that collapsed in the U.S. credit crisis.

The lawsuit filed by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank in U.S. district court in Manhattan said a complex deal known as the Cheyne Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV) was marketed by the defendants as highly rated and reliable, but they had hidden the risks.

"Instead of protecting the SIV and its investors as promised, defendants exposed the SIV to significant undisclosed risks," the lawsuit said. "Defendants knew the assets purchased and held by the SIV were risky and of poor quality. They further knew the models used to generate the high rates were flawed."

"The ratings agencies intentionally, recklessly or negligently misled investors in Cheyne," according to the suit. "But for the ratings agencies violations of law, the capital notes never would have been issued."

http://tinyurl.com/5z6alz

Thank you 2nd, glad to be back. So now I have to run to town to have the car repaired....hope to be back before the close.

Good luck and massive profits to all.

My very best to you Bill.

teamonfuego- exactly...we want it and we want it now...no one likes thinking long-term, even more so if it means making painful sacrifices now...with american cinema/media/politics/finance celebrating the short-term, who's left to listen to walker?

almost all religions have a story about letting those who will not listen go their way...in due time they return in their distress, ready to hear...walker's made his point

In the interests of sharing thoughts about trading (and maybe getting some feedback), here's how I decide at what price to sell (anyone who has read Van Tharp will recognize this.)...

My sell target is a function of my stop loss (3x, or better). I aim to get back a profit of at least 3 times as much as I put at risk. My stop loss is a function of the stock volatility, as measured by ATR. A highly volatile stock will have a wider stop. I use a multiple of the daily or weekly ATR depending on if this is a short-term trade (few days or weeks) or a longer-term trade (few weeks or months). If the ATR suggests a stop of $1 (for example), then my sell price will be at least +$3 from the current stock price. If I think that upside target is realistic, I consider entering the trade.

To put it another way, lower volatility stocks don't need to go up as much as higher volatility stocks. With a 3x upside for my 1x of "Value at Risk" (the VaR is the current stock price minus the stop loss). If the

(current stock price + ((current stock price - the stop loss) x 3)) = a reasonable upside target

then I'm willing to consider a trade.

After taking a position, I run a trailing stop. I'm more often stopped out than reaching my target sell price. This is a quite simple, mechanical system, in which I "plan my trade and trade my plan". Since adopting this method, my losses are smaller (duh?). So far it's looking like an improvement. A net positive.

Not meant as advice. DYODD. Comments encouraged.

THANK YOU BILL!

Don't let the ^$$@ers grind you down.

Correlation among the 35 most traded stocks ($) in the US:

http://tinyurl.com/5zwkzh

Note how GS does not correlate with anything.

valleyrat.

one suggestion if I may, to try and maximize the return.

Run the stats on those of your your trades that do not reach their target to see where they reverse, in terms of risk/reward ratio. Meaning, your original R/R target is 1:3; if you find that most of them reverse half way, that gives you 1:1.5. The run another stats over ALL of your trades to see how your performance would have changed should you have sold half of your position at that most common point of reversal.

It's important to do second set of stats on all of trades, and not only on those that haven't reached the target.

It's hard to tell not seeing your entries but from what you say this should allow to increase overall profits as you secure half of profits at the point where they tend to reverse, trail the stop for the balance thus decreasing the loss potential, and still give a chance to run those that are capable of it. Your stats will tell you if that assumption is correct.

I'm seeing strange numbers in the Google Nasdaq volume historical listings. When I toggle between daily and weekly history the volume numbers look awfully wrong in that once they show normal numbers but then they show different numbers after cycling the weekly and daily links.
The reason I mention this as I've been studying volume numbers back to the April time frame. It appears to me the last foray into 12200 Dow territory during July was on really weak volume. It will be interesting to see where the volume goes to the middle of next week.

"the run" = then run...

valleyrat -

How are you calculating your VaR? Historical method? Monte Carlo? Variance method? What confidence levels are you using? What is your time frame? Monthly? Daily? - I imagine both.

So if the most you can lose in one day is 13% on a volatile stock are your requiring a 39% return? so for a stock trading at $1 are you setting stops at $1.39?

Along the lines of valleyrat's concern, if only it were as easy as that! There are times when 3x your stop distance is too much to ask, and others when to sell there would be selling early. This thing isn't really suceptible to "pre-programmed" trading, it requires discretion based on a wide variety of vastly different circumstances. That is why it's a horse race, and why if anyone really has a trading program that works, they keep it a deep dark secret.

Vad,

Thanks for the comments... have saved them for reflection later.

Analysis of one's own trading results is essential. I probably don't do enough of it... mostly of the sort "is this improving the equity curve".

Better trading to all!

Okay,

It's midday and I feel like we're stuck in the Doldrums. I'm no volume expert, but everything feels "sleepy."

Dow Utilities are slightly are up, the Dow Transports are slightly down, and Energy and Basic Materials are the relative winners so far today. The closest thing to an eye catcher is the drop in Airlines ($XAL) and the jump in Natural Gas ($XNG), with the Oil Field Hands ($OSX) standing somewhat upright and proud at +1.54%.

I feel like a boxer getting set up with the "rope a dope" . . . I guess all this talk of the Hamptons and big money guys is true. And, as a Gulf Coaster, I'm keeping an eye on the Hurricane off of Cuba. I'm betting we see one storm (jump down) or the other (Hurricane) within the week.

TTM Squeeze, revisited:
There is a great example of a "TTM Squeeze" possibly about to break out right now.

EWW (Mexico), BB(20,2) Keltner Channel (20,1.5) daily chart.

Since I'm looking at the squeeze on a daily chart, it won't be 'official' until the close. However, the price is now just poking below the lower bounds, MACD is pointing down, and also importantly, it's fighting through a consolidation to break the psychological and technical resistance at 52.

More importantly, look back about 1.5-two weeks on the daily, same parameters. You can see a breakout signal downward was given. It immediately popped back into the channel. Had you taken the trade, depending on how you set it up, you would have had two weeks of dead money as consolidation continued, or been stopped out.

This is a great example of the tendency of this signal, when taken alone, to generate false positives.

Just to reiterate: There's nothing magic about this signal. It just happens to help you see a quiet period and play a breakout. It's also pretty easy to program and run scans on.

(Short EWW based on fundamentals and other price\volume technical considerations. I just happened to notice the squeeze developing after I was already in the position.)

2nd - i wonder how much pain everyone is willing to take to get back on course financially as a country...now is probably not the time to be asking people to take more pain, but they have to. I'm afraid David Walker is right. Amazing how when they interviewed him we were on the precipice of a huge credit crisis and they even stated in the interview that it's hard for people to think about these things when times are good (like now). I hope Obama's team has the ability to link up with David Walker's message and point to it as one of the reasons why they're proposing raising taxes. It's good for the country long term, maybe not for the short term?

MikeNYC,

I'm a fan of the TTM squeeze, it's really helped me visualize possible entry points, and I make sure to use a combo of either short term MACD (12, 26, 9) long term MACD (65, 90, 12), ROC oscillator, RSI, etc. to get a feel for the trend and momentum towards which the signal is pointing.

My entry success, as defined by not having to wait long for the trade to "develop" in my direction, is much better. I've made money and I thank you.

As an offering back to everyone, sometimes I've missed the initial squeeze signal but have been able to play an offshoot of the "Holy Grail" trade mentioned by Linda Raschke ... My version is , essentially, if the ADX is un an uptrend, and you can get an entry on the first pullback towards the EMA(25), you have a very good chance of riding the continuing wave for a while.

mebea:

>"How are you calculating your VaR? Historical method? Monte Carlo? Variance method? What confidence levels are you using? What is your time frame? Monthly? Daily? - I imagine both."

Perhaps too simplistically, I consider my VaR to be the difference between the price at entry (or the current stock price) minus my stop loss/trailing stop. If my stop is hit, I sell. Period. The loss (and so the VaR) is just the buy price less the stop price. I have to keep it simple. There are many other apsects of trading to concentrate on also. So at my level of competence, this is what I am doing.

>"So if the most you can lose in one day is 13% on a volatile stock are your requiring a 39% return?"
>"so for a stock trading at $1 are you setting stops at $1.39?"

That's it. If the ATR says to set a 13% stop, the stop loss will be at $1-($1*0.13) and the target sell will be, at least $1+($1*0.39).

Shark:

I try to remove the fear/greed negative influence using a mechanical system for entering/exiting trades. Now, stock selection is another matter. That I can do with a cooler head.

> "There are times when 3x your stop distance is too much to ask"

So I do not take the trade.

>"a trading program that works"

I make no such claim for this. It all depends on if the stock goes in the direction I want it to! That's in no way a function of my stop loss/trailing stop or target sell price ;-)

Thanks for the comments.

Another thing...When I first started doing this, a move would happen, then a retracement of the move, and typically, the retracement was buyable. What I've been noticing lately is a decided lack of interest in buying retracements.

Also, it used to seem that the first 20 minutes of trading was a setup for the rest of the day, typically there would be follow through, or a reversal, or something that was playable. Now it seems like there's the first half hour which is when stocks make their primary movement, followed by ....blah. Usually a long, slow retreat from the previous high or low without much enthusiasm. Maybe it's just August, but there's a lot of talk on the tube about more trouble to come, and for once I believe them.

RBY pulling another amazing drill result from Red Lake - 26.0 oz/ton gold over 6.6 feet. That's really rich. I think Rubicon is the best play in McEwen's stable. Long and will probably add. Note there's probably a fair bit of supply at the current price.
http://tinyurl.com/5g9akz

Thanks for the RBY update. I asked this blog about news re RBY at 1pm but I think typekey glitched.
Welcome home Craig
Peace

valleyrat...thanks. I am getting to the point when I want a system if I am gonna keep trading. As a member of densa, I've copied your comments and the feedback.
re TTM. breakout to the upside? or down? I don't have (don't know which to use)an oscillator to gauge.
TIA

The $RUT is currently testing the 200MDA as support. When it gives lookout below. 650 most likely will be the next solid stop.

http://tinyurl.com/5wu4y6

[Holding: QID, TWM & TSO]

UAUA gapping down now...may see your ten handle soon enough, ksobo...

FDIC report for number of banks on watchlist is released at 3:00 pm est.

EWW:
This is really breaking down now.

I just charted the top holdings to see what was leading the breakdown. They all are. Or at least the top four holdings are.

The first four I looked at not only are having big down days (bad day for Mexico) but also all of these seem to be in pronounced short term trends or are what look like good candidates for continuation moves. This is from a strictly technical point of view.

There are some very tradeable short ideas inside this ETF.

Photogray:

"densa"... yup, that's about the level. Still I'd much rather lose money by my own efforts (and learn from that) than just hand it over to a money manager/broker/mutual fund/buy and hold strategy. And I am improving. In fact I've not been at a net loss since 2001, even taking inflation (well CPI, anyway) into account.

Keeping positions small. Proving performance first. Increasing commitment over time. It's working. Nonetheless the current environment is certainly tough. Sometimes the best course of action really is no action.

I almost went short UAUA at 12 this morning but couldn't pull the trigger.

Strange but true trading concept, in case this weren't difficult enough already.

It SEEMS like, and very well may be true that, the BEST trades are the HARDEST ones to make.

Vadym, do you have any ruminations on this possibility?

Velley Rat

Did you mean "illegitimi non carborundum"

Just bought some more UAUA at 11.10. Placing a sell limit order at 12.10. As oil price declines over the medium term, there bound to be short-term bumps in it, and I believe we are seeing one of them.

Interestingly, FXE is down today (I am still shorting it). Since oil is up, I would assume dollar is down and FXE should be up. Maybe the situation in Europe is really so bad that even if dollar is falling, Euro is falling faster?

"It SEEMS like, and very well may be true that, the BEST trades are the HARDEST ones to make.

Vadym, do you have any ruminations on this possibility?"

Actually, I wrote about that so many times that "rumination" (as in eating disorder) is probably a very good way to refer to it, LOL.

It's often true.

ALOHA!!

Let me sum up most Americans view of our current government and debt and global obligations. I ran across this the other night when I was watching the HBO series called "BAND OF BROTHERS".

There is a scene where Private Blithe is in his foxhole and the Germans are shelling the American position savagely. Blithe is hunkered down in a daze when up comes Sgt. Spears and he tells him to get out of his foxhole. Blithe does not budge then Spears says,"Blithe why are you in that foxhole? It's not because you're scared its because you still have "hope"! Hope that you will live through this. Thats what keeps you in your foxhole ..." Spears went on to say how dangerous "hope" is during combat and that if Blithe just denies this "hope" he clings to then he could function as a soldier.

To me that scene describes exactly America's problem now. We have this unfounded "hope" that if we keep pushing these debts further into the future that somehow we will come out of it in one piece. This is what every elected Washington DC politician does ... they push the day of reckoning further and further into the future with the hopes some magical technology or some slight of hand money trick or maybe bird flu or WW3 will take care of these debts!

As a Nation America is stuck in a foxhole and financial bombs are dropping all around us ... holding onto "hope"! The markets grab for "hope" and with each little misconstrued bullish headline it rallies, until the next bit of hope is dashed ... and so it goes ... on and on until it can go no more. So sometimes "hope" can work against you . Sometimes "hope" makes you blind to reality!

This is what every US Voters votes for ... "hope"!

David,
Check the Eurodollar chart for confirmation of your last sentence.

http://tinyurl.com/66oqd3

(Short EURUSD)

nemo:

Errmmmmm.... yeah, that's what I meant. Mine's the British version.

With a name like nemo, you must spend a lot of time "under water" ;-?

Ooooh, Valley Rat-good one.

On UAUA. Hand another brain flatulence. Possible pop tomorrow on the oil report,but...after that, probably down until we get on the other side of the hurricane.

Yeah, VR I'm so short while everybody is waist deep I'm on tippy toes.

I forgot about Jules Verne. I got if from Oddyseus when he escaped from the cyclops. Definitely not from James Joyce. He gives me a headache.

Who was asking about CPST last week and I was talking about the potential need for additional financing? Anyway, they announced a new order today. A few months ago, that would have rocketed the stock. Today, it's sitting on it's low.

The momo is gone from this one at least until the questions about financing are answered imo. Also, they claimed they might become cash flow positive by the end of the year and profitable by 2012, so they'll have to start delivering on some metrics for fundamental advancement.

Vadym: What would be your opinion on CPST?

Oh, just had my credit limit on one of my credit cards.

Today's market thrashed around like a gut-shot chicken. Up, down, around, without going anywhere.

nemo - Jules Verne, James Joyce... new generations will just think you got it from the cartoon! :)

I used to play CPST a few times in May-June, hasn't touched it since. Chart is inconclusive here, I'd need something to start shaping up. For instance, not losing 2.40 from here, consolidating for a few days above 2.50, then breaking .70 - .75 with increasing volume - and I would be very interested.

"UAUA gapping down now...may see your ten handle soon enough, ksobo..."

It wasn't me 2nd, but I concur anyway...

teamonfuego,

"Kudlow and the other talking heads on CNBC would like lower taxes because that means a better stock market in the short term while failing to discuss the impact this would have on the deficit in the long term."

Kudlow's tax cut theory usually revolves around the idea it gives corporations and individuals more money to invest in R&D, new products, increased productivity and ultimately — new jobs.
That's the theory, but while those things may be happening, they are not happening here. Corporations can increase the bottom line by using cheaper foreign labor, eliminating benefits — pensions, health care, etc.

Individuals (investors and CEOs) can make more money investing in those companies which increase the bottom line and boost the share price.

"In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are different." Albert Einstein

C.C. Myers has filed for personal bankruptcy. He's the man who fixes California freeways in record time and is the builder for Winchester Country Club.
http://tinyurl.com/6qw2ko

Keltner Channel "squeeze" on the $US dollar? I don't know if it will put on a "squeeze" here, or do a reversal, but a change or charge (like in the Light Brigade) might be in store for the Dollar after Labor Day in either case.

Wonder which stocks have the highest positive and negative correlations to the Dollar?

http://tinyurl.com/5n5p9b

What settings do you use on the Keltner channels?
My software allows me to set two periods and an envelope %.

Vadym,

I just ordered a copy of your book "tape reading". Glad to see you on this blog. Cool!

[Bill Cara note:

Vad and I agreed to take parts of our books (I own my rights and he owns the rights to one of his) and put them into a teaching course for traders, which we intend to make interactive. The process has begun. I figure there are people who want to build wealth quickly by becoming the best trader they can and there are people who don't have the time or skills needed to manage on their own. Cara Trading Advisors Bahamas Ltd will serve both markets. All 20 of us on Team Cara will also be contributing on this free blog as much as time permits. We're still working on the Drupal, which will improve it, but that will likely be rolled out in mid-September.]

nemo,

I use 20, 1.5, 10 for Keltner Channels.

Thanks BP.

Oh, and thanks Vadym for answering my questions. I also really enjoy your sense of humor.

one thought.

(Read this blog daily and time to time contribute)

As mentioned today by nemo and a week ago by Bill in a WIR.
This really has been on my thoughts for a while especially since the WIR.
Whether you are a trader or just working to get by. Take a step back and think about this....
Events in life are nothing more than battles. Life is one big war with (first and foremost) with yourself, family, neighboors, coworkers, food, sports, driving and we could go into more specifics about anything. Now before I get blasted there are unwritten treaties that we have created with family, friends, neighboors or whoever. That is trust that we develop amoungst each other.
We earn job titles to deliver on our mission for a company, competition is fierce and will continue to only get tougher as the world gets smaller. The world gets smaller everyday, information moves faster and the cranes keep flying in more babies than the reaper takes in a day.
I think collectively we forget that it is basic, us or them, you or me, corporation in north america vs Eu corporation, team a vs team b; who wants it more?

IMO- the mindset should have no complaints (difficult for almost all, impossible for some) because it can distract you from the mission whatever it be. People typically are born successful, if so gene therapy could take care of that. Use your strengths, know your weakness, engage all situations that has no treaty as battle and we can be victorious.

Remember: stay sharp, keep your defenses on point,two kinds in the world, those that execute and those who don't.
Do nothing with no defense..... Get the idea.

SiO2 wrote:
"Correlation among the 35 most traded stocks ($) in the US:
http://tinyurl.com/5zwkzh
Note how GS does not correlate with anything."

What is the time-frame over which those correlations were calculated? Over last month? last 1 year? which?

[Bill Cara note:

I like this. I am a big fan of correlation studies. Could somebody do it for the Cara 100 and the other items? TIA]

ksobo- right..it was ST07...UAUA will be a buy before the end of the week...

nemo - If you were asking me what parameters I used in my "squeeze?" chart on the $US, I useed StockCharts defaults for both Keltner Channel and for the BBand. See upper left corner of the chart.

If your software uses a %Band, then your chart will be different from mine.

Here is how StockCharts defines its Keltner:

In the modern version of Keltner Channels, the central line is (typically) a 20-period Exponential Moving Average. The upper and lower bands are drawn at an equal distance from the central line. The distance is defined as a specified multiple (typically 2x) of the ATR(10) indicator:

"In SharpCharts, the Keltner Channels take three parameters. The first one is the period of the central EMA. The second one is the multiplier for the bands. The last one is the period of the ATR indicator. The default parameter values are "20,2.0,10". "

Hope this helps.

Addendum to my last: Now that I think about it, I think BlowoutP is correct to use (20, 1.5, 10) as the parameters for the "squeeze" pattern. This probably just allows a little more room between the Keltner and the BBand for identification purposes of the pattern, I think.

Mackinaw, timeframe is the same as yesterday's (Jul 1). I can do the CARA100 Bill, should be interesting, and huge!

Re: SiO2's Correlation Matrices,

Also useful would be the covariance matrix for the Cara 100. From it I could extract the top few principal components. Essentially these would be independent, multi-stock plays/portfolios/indexes (some short, some long in each; think "pairs trading", but on a grander scale) which account for most of the price variation in the Cara 100. Then you could have fun trying to decide what each component is measuring. For example you'd likely see combination of stocks which, together, constitute a "flight to safety" group, a "value" group, a "growth" group, "noise", etc.

Oh, SiO2, and if you put these up not as images but as .xls files (or even just text) it would be easier to get them into a spreadsheet :P

Citi pays $18M for questioned credit card practice
Tuesday August 26, 3:05 pm ET
By Madlen Read

NEW YORK (AP) -- Citigroup Inc. will pay nearly $18 million in refunds and settlement charges for taking $14 million from customers' credit card accounts, California's attorney general said Tuesday....

"The company knowingly stole from its customers, mostly poor people and the recently deceased, when it designed and implemented the sweeps," said Brown in a statement. "When a whistleblower uncovered the scam and brought it to his superiors, they buried the information and continued the illegal practice."

Citigroup, however, said in a statement that it voluntarily stopped the computerized "sweeping" practice in 2003, and that it also voluntarily began refunding customers before the settlement.

"We take issue with the state's characterization of our conduct and the parties' voluntary settlement," Citigroup said in a statement. "This agreement affirms our actions, and we are continuing to make full refunds to all affected customers," Citigroup said.

Citigroup shares rose 2 cents to $17.63 in afternoon trading.

from:Jesse's Café Américain

Bill,
The trader school that you and Vad are putting together. How does one register for it and where? What do you think of Cramer's call today for a bottom being in for the homebuilders in July of 08?

I'm gonna' take a guess Bill today went from, "Why do I put up with this" to "Now I remember why I did this."

At least I hope he did.

2nd_Ave.

If Gustav keeps strengthening and heading towards the oil fields, and it won't be into the Gulf until Sunday, why would UAUA be a buy by Friday?

2nd. What happened with CALM today?

c3, thank you, I enjoy the exchange here. Not many compliment my sense of humor, you see... :)

stktrader, I'll take stab at it. First stage of this educational program is going to be an online course leading a trader through his entire process of development, from the scratch to practical trading. It will show the array of choices for a trader and provide help in making them. Then, depending on the choices made in a first part, a trader will be offered a series of deeper courses to mix and match, in order to fulfill his personal objectives.

This first part of a program is in works, and considering the efficiency of the team it should not take very long to start rolling it out.

Vad, Keep the board posted as to when it starts.

Correlation -
There is a correlation tracker at:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/correlation

Using this tool, one would find WHR has a -.95 correlation with USO, for a period of 6 mos.

This is not in matrix form, which would be an advantage provided by SiO2's tool, but will identify a correlation over a wide range of equities.

nemo- it depends on your time frame...i think by friday they'll have a good idea where gustav is heading and when, and a much more accurate forecast should be priced into UAUA by then...

westcoaster- CALM..it's corrected several times in 2008, and each time it's been a buying opportunity...the short float (as of july 28) was lower but still high at 83%, so i don't think it's seen its high for the year...but i have no crystal ball...

Bill,

Congratulations on your partnership with Vadym. In addition to sounding like one hell of a good idea, now 2nd_ave will only have to buy me one book when I win the ESLR bet!

Speaking of our friend 2nd, regarding CALM, I wonder if the investors in CALM are remaining calm or not?

re Gustav- how reliable would a play on UAUA or NGas be...one change in the weather pattern could eliminate the entire basis for your trade...is it any different than placing bets ahead of an earnings annoucement..would you want to hold any positions overnight?

Re: Correlations

Interesting that the correlation of POT to GLD is so high (.92).

shark- the correct word, my man (in terms of both connotation and etiquette), is 'if' (which, incidentally, is the name of a 1968 lindsay anderson film you would enjoy)...i have no idea how CALM investors are feeling, other than to say probably a hell of a lot calmer than CALM shorts..

Is CDZI (a water company on my watchlist) showing a BB/Kelter squeeze?

CALM - Is the goose finished laying the golden egg?

gee, Im seeing the BB squeeze everywhere now. Is GM going to break to the upside....hmmm. I think I can get this one my ownself

CP- it was always just an ordinary egg-> shorts turned it into gold for insiders...

Photogray:

I see a squeeze on the CDZI weekly chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDZI&p=W&b=3&g=3&id=p66491066124

And now, a couple of passing thoughts on energy:

** 22% of America's electricity comes from natural gas, 50% from coal, and 20% from other sources.

We need to stop burning things for our electricity and save fossil fuels for transportation.

** There are over seven million natural gas powered vehicles in the world but only 150,000 in the USA.

**The US has a huge strategic natural gas advantage and we can develop it properly.

I am typing this right now within a couple of miles of hundreds of working gas wells in a Texas field. My childhood hometown has gas wells drilled all over it, within the city limits. Guess what? The grass grows back over tire tracks and pipelines and the cows (and at night, deer) graze among the wellheads or horse head pumps like nothing's ever happened there. The environmental impact of today's drilling is vastly overstated ... ask anyone who lives in oil & gas country.

Dear 2nd,

I stand corrected. It's "if", not "when". In fact, I fully expect you to win the ESLR bet. And just to help juice Q4 earnings, I'm planning to install a solar panel on the back of my Harley Fatboy. That's right...I'm goin' green!

shark- (OT) speaking of movies, the number of 'horror' flicks out there that really deserve the title have been few and far between...i can think of 'alien,' 'the thing' (1982), a couple of shyamalan's films, 'girl in a swing'...last weekend i rented a french film, 'them,' that came pretty close to keeping you guessing...

..left out one of my favorites- dennis quaid and jim caviezel in 'frequency'...

MIR - Mirant is the closest negative corollary to CALM... at -.88

BP, you just have to convince the lefties that live in Boston, Cambridge and NY City that never have been out to oil country and just follow what the mailings tell them.

On Gustav:

GUSTAV IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...
WHICH IS INDUCING SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS ALSO STRONGLY DIFLUENT...WHICH SHOULD AID THE
RE-INTENSIFICATION PROCESS ONCE GUSTAV CLEARS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF HAITI. BOTH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY BRINGING GUSTAV TO JUST BELOW
CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...POSSIBLE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY CREATE
INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 18.6N 73.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 75.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 77.1W 85 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 19.4N 78.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 20.5N 82.2W 110 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 23.0N 86.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 26.5N 89.5W 110 KT

And, for the lighter side tonight (unless you were long these positions), some deep pockets jumped out of the frozen-chicken business today:

PPC (Pilgrim's Pride)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PPC&p=D&b=3&g=3&id=p60290158621&a=149631022

SAFM (Sanderson Farms)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SAFM&p=D&b=3&g=3&id=p60290158621&a=149631023

Saw "Man On Wire" recently, about the guy who wirewalked the world trade center. Saw "Tell No One", a good French mystery. Saw "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" which I liked a lot. We have a pretty good alt theatre around here, I don't go to a lot of Hollywood type movies, and as you said, there's not a lot of horror being made now. Also really like "The Lives of Others" which came out a couple of years ago but was on cable recently, and excellent story about East Germany during the Cold War.

PNRA big move up looks exhausted and ready to roll over.

PS:
If PNRA does indeed roll over, breaking next near resistance at 52 would portend a significant move down.

Disclosure: I've been wrong before once or twice.

PPS:
A-Rod just ended the Yankees season hitting into a 7th inning bases loaded second double play of the game. And finished up by striking out to end the game with two on.

Love it.

nemo,

I once dated a sweet girl in Grad School who was as GREEN as Green could be; everything Big Oil in her book was pure evil.

I took her home to East Texas for a visit and solemnly told her that she should see the effects of the Oil and Gas industry "up close" & personally. But, having some fun, I first told her that she had to put on some old coveralls and protective eyewear. She was in, "hook, line, and sinker."

We hopped on a four wheeler and tore out through the countryside. I took her down some back roads, over wooden bridges, back out to a "community" (not a Town) that had been sitting on natural gas but was never explored until the late 90s. We stopped and visited the Neals, a formerly dirt-poor family that had been "pulp wood" haulers during my high-school days. They now drove Cadillacs and erected brick homes right up next to their wooden "shotgun" shacks, due to the gas royalty checks they were now receiving.

I asked Mrs. Neal if we could "ride down to the bottom" on her property and, with a "Lord Yes, Child, Go On Down In There" and a "Y'all be careful", we were off.

We descended and then topped a large hill and came across a river bottom pasture with a number of wellheads. Each site was neatly trimmed in gravel with the wellhead and equipment freshly painted. The coastal bermuda grass was tall and the Indian Paintbrushes were blooming and they all grew right up to the gravel. The Black Angus and the F1 Brangus cattle carried on as cows do and stared dumbly at us, while only the wind and a quiet, metallic "Urrrrrrr" of the gas in the pipes could be heard.

My date couldn't believe that such a peaceful setting was the genesis for the "evil" that is the oil and gas industry.

shark_attack,

All alt theater is simply walking in the footsteps of "Hands on a Hardbody", a 90s documentary by JKL Productions about a Southern radio contest to win a Nissan Pickup Truck simply by keeping one's hands on the truck for DAYS. Last one to keep his hands on the truck wins it.

And that's a big " ;-) " on the last post, but, seriously, most folks with a sense of humor really laugh at the movie.

Mike,

I didn't know you were an A-Rod/Yankees critic.
I am too. What are you, a Met's fan?

Happy to be back in the rain and trees Gray. Thanks for the welcome home.

Placing a buy limit order for UAUA at $10.10. I think that the current "hurricane" premium in the price of oil should have no effect on the medium-term profitability of UAUA, and so that fact that UAUA is down now because of the hurricane fears suggests that we have a buying opportunity for UAUA. Tensions with Russia can be more long-lived, but I think that they will stop being a factor in the price of oil soon, and the general economic slowdown will continue pulling POO down.

UAUA After Hours: $11.00 5:24am ET with oil trading up at $117.17

If oil tests $122, UAUA might drop below $10...

I think everyone will be watching to see what happens.

Investors were waiting for an EIA report. The petroleum supply report was expected to show that gasoline inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels, but the survey also showed that analysts projected oil stocks rose 1.5 million barrels and distillates went up 900,000 million barrels.

I have no clue what the inventories will be???

Blowoutpreventer,

As you know I'm an old Texas roughneck and I couldn't have said it better myself. People not in the industry really have no idea how hard it tries to be good citizens to put gas in their tanks and natural gas in their homes in the winter. Wildlife used to flock to our rigs for some reason...but ah. Well said man. You taught somebody the truth.

Kudos to you sir.

Funny too that Nancy Pelosi just said that she supports natural gas as an alternative to fossil fuels.

That right there should tell you how clueless the speaker of the house is. For those like her that don't know, we use the same exact rigs to get the natural gas that we do for oil and yes...natural gas is a fossil fuel. Nice job Nancy.

Sharkster,

Saw the "Lives of Others" about a year ago. Great Movie. That fellow who played the Stazi operative died not too long ago.

Re: NDM.TO

There may be a trade coming up in NDM.TO, since the Measure 4 mining laws referendum is looking as if it has less support than people thought. A 'yes' vote means a change to the mining law for the state and greater restrictions on mining discharges, and a 'no' vote means that Alaskans will stay with the law as is:

http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/507096.html

David: What medium term profitablility in UAUA?:)

Another angle on the airlines. Which one(s) will have a floor under them. They,imo, would be considered a "strategic" US asset, at least some of them. Those could be interesting plays for awhile

Fransix, thx for the link. Excellent.

All the bad news looked like it was in the chart,hopefully it can have a good run now?

Tbar, I think there are probably a good number of short seller which will be forced to settle, so any moves will be priced in in short order.

The results are in on the Measure 4 referendum in Alaska:

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iqDchYiP_sUAsLrXw9BPIQdpc20AD92QJ5FO0

"David: What medium term profitablility in UAUA?:)"

nemo- don't lose sight of the bigger medium-term picture- commodities down...

UAUA- with all eyes on Gustav, it's a contrarian play...scaling in at 10.40...

Nemo,

Thanks for pointing out the passing of that actor. He was so young. And it was a great, great movie.

2nd, with oil up and UAUA going down the past few days, keep a careful stop in mind.

How about gold, huh? It's confusing.

2nd, can you go short in the premarket? So much of the good movements happen pre-.