Good morning.

There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

---------------------------------------------------

Have a great and profitable day.

Nice new digs Bill!

All the best to you and your new venture.

nothing looks good this morning, unless you're short...or long airlines/long CALM ;)
(no positions, all cash)

UNG has been beaten to a pulp over the past month. I'm in and buying more.

I sold near-term calls yesterday on 1/2 my position in ESLR. I still believe this stock will be significantly higher in a year, but the stock is likely due for another pullback in its channel after have a strong five days of positive movement.

The CFO gave a presentation at a CanaccordAdams conference last week, reinforcing and restating the strong fundamentals for the company. A link to the webcast is available on the company's web site: http://www.evergreensolar.com/app/en/investors/

And I'm letting my puts in RYL ride. Other than that, I have no desire nor the time to negotiate the volatility of the market right now.

Bill - Kay is very sad not to meet you. She's dumped about 5 inches of crocodile tears at my house and I think I saw some drops horizontally fly by at about 45 miles per hour on their way to splatter your new office windows.

No serious dammage in the WPB area so far except for a tornado takeout of an equine hopital in the Wellington area.

This is the reason that Canadians go North for the Summer 8).

Nice website, I have been following this site for about 2 months and it is nice to find a site where there is so much knowledge into the market conditions. Finally got tired of listening to my financial advisor and started doing my own investments. I have learned alot from Bill and have much more to learn.

Nice website, I have been following this site for about 2 months and it is nice to find a site where there is so much knowledge into the market conditions. Finally got tired of listening to my financial advisor and started doing my own investments. I have learned alot from Bill and have much more to learn.

Schwabb is telling me that trading in SLV has been halted. Are any of you having this issue? What is happening? I haven't been able to find any info.

i'm still able (though unwilling) to trade SLV on Fidelity...

Bill, Nice picture of the new office. I hope you get a fine chair for it.
Best Regards,

ChicagoMark,

There was an AMEX problem, IB just put out the notice that AMEX trading is again available. I don't think it was limited to SLV.

It seems there's still loose credit for people that don't want it. I just got off the phone with Citibank and they want to deposit my entire credit limit of 16K into my checking account for 0.0% until March 2009. They also give me 5 dividend dollars for every for every $1500 I take.

The catch is they charge a 3% fee for the advance.

Back in 2003, when money was easier, many banks would give you the money with no fee and 0.0% for at least a year.

During that time I had over 100K of their money I was making 6% on in a money market. That went on until early 2005 I think when they started charging the 3% to take the money.

An amazing world of finance and credit we've got here.

Rob.

I meant to say "on it in a money market"

Rob.

PPI 1.8% last month and 1.2% this month means 19.6% compounded over 12 months - if it continues.

One of the great things about this site is that there are no crazy, angry people here lashing out at other folks opinions with a lot of name-calling. I appreciate the community-wide respect that is shown for opinions that are contrary to ones own.
I'm hooked and I return here perhaps half a dozen times a day just to catch up on what you all are saying as well as researching many of your buy and sell suggestions ..a couple of which I've purchased recently.
My continuing thanks to each and every one you and of course especially to Bill Cara.

Bill (in Washington, DC)

Finger Lakes,

23 years being approved have a single interest paying checking account (personal/business — not retail and therefore low maintenance) the drive-thru teller announced to the world she could not accept a large business check for deposit.

I was told by a VP they changed bank policy (news to me) and I would now need to open a separate business account: pay a fee for each check I wrote, receive lower interest AND pay a fee for each deposit.

I objected and he should consider if they were losing money on me those 23 years, or if policy was more important than keeping me as a customer. He then offered to allow one account with no interest.

For the intervening 19 years I have been getting better interest without the checking fees from my broker.

Nibbled some SLV at 12.70
Don't know about other platforms, but SLV was losing this AM in real time on Scottrade as usual. No halt to the losses!
Seems like there is some inflation talk returning with the releases this morning that is holding the line on the pm's and miners.
Tried to add TBT in the 65's but didn't hit my price. Another day....or later today, it's still below the previous 52 wk low (66.25).
TATA....no, not goodbye, but the stock....looks like it wants to come back to us. So TATA, TBT, ESLR and CNSL are on my come back to me list.
I know #2 son is watching for ESLR to hit the bottom line of the channel, where I bought it at about 8.56. I'll start adding at 8.75.
Who was it that bought SKF at 125? I thought it looked like chasing....boy was I wrong. Nothing like 7 or 8 bucks a share to help one's bottom line! The financials look to be giving it all back. Maybe more? OOOH scary!

Nice call on UNG this AM as well....

Checking in from vacation . . getting ready to leave and enjoy the day.

Speculative, not for everyone: Notice South Korean market has been hit just as much as others this year . . . there will be a time when it bottoms and it's on the radar with D, W, & M RSI7s all <30 . . . possible vehicles include EWY or mf MAKOX if you don't go with individual selections like PKX, Samsung, KB, etc. Can't help to think they've expanded trade with China and will supply material for earthquake rebuild. No positions, just thinking.

Si02--took profits, sold OEX puts bought Friday a little while ago ;)

I've been banking with the same bank for over 20 years. The other day I deposited a largish check and the teller told me the funds wouldn't be available for two weeks. This is the BAC sized bank. It's not like my account couldn't cover the check either.....

I've been getting those Chase offers for a while now, 0% for about 18mos or .99% until the balance is paid. I have no idea how they do it, but they would have to be getting free $ from somewhere....or they are taking the bet that interest rates rise faster than my desire to pay the balance, at least on the short term loan.
Makes me feel better about fishing the bottom for TBT.....
The .99% until it's paid is harder to figure....unless they are purposely taking losses or can make $ on less than a point.

I'm still waiting to see bank presidents at the local off ramps panhandling.

I was wondering Seamus. I also just sold half of my SDS calls a few minutes ago. Only reason is that the volume is truly anemic and the market can be brought up easily, so taking profits. Those BAC 25 puts that were so bought en masse and were out of the money are looking good too. Somebody knew something. Also looking to short UNG.

Finger Lakes:

That tells me I should short Citi. They are risking the principal to recognize the revenue. 3% fee will be recognized in this year. They don't care whether they can get it back in 03/2009. Banks are cooking the books.

Reference 11:17 a.m. post

Clarification: RSI7 figures <30 are for EWY

Si02--felt the same way with OEX options, especially when I'm walking out the door for the day! Congrats on SDS calls.

Craig--like TBT in the 65's also also, but will have to wait another day . . . note daily RSI7 has gone back above 30 this a.m.; will check after hours to see where it settles.

Re: ABCP and Junior Mining Companies

It was a year ago that revelations of ABCP first hit the market. It came as a complete surprise that mining companies were exposed to it. After that, some companies issued news releases on whether they were exposed to it or not. although some were heavily encumbered.

But this didn't help, the industry was tarnished. Many companies didn't see the point of making this statement or kept the issue under wraps and did not discuss it at all. But since the doubt had been placed in the minds of investors, they began to sell their holdings in junior mining companies.

This gave the impetus for short sellers and naked short sellers to dump shares on the markets, and at the time, there was pervasive doubt and fear about markets due to the banking sector collapses.

Various commodities had also crashed, notably nickel. There had been an unrelenting mania in uranium, which deflated as well at the same time. News of a collapse in Altius' minerals Newfoundland refining project took a great number of people by surprise. Nova Gold, with the involvement of Teck Cominco and Barrick had no support in the market after zinc prices collapsed on one of its projects, and costs on its gold project were seen to be far more than anticipated.

More glaring was the disconnect between gold prices and gold mining companies. At the same time as the ABCP scandal, we were seeing government intervention against Canadian companies in various jurisdictions around the world. We even saw that in Canada mining projects ran into stiff local opposition. British Columbia, hailed for its mining renaissance, placed a moratorium on uranium mining and one copper/gold porphyry project. Northgate minerals was struck with both ABCP and local opposition to its mine project.

A brief rush into coal (companies still signing up coal licenses after the fact) has turned into a rout.

A swell of short selling was seen to enter the market, both naked and legal, which requires access to leverage, so the brokerages jumped on the bandwagon. There is little doubt that liquidity, if it was available, was not meant to go into viable projects, but to sell short the market.

Altius Minerals

http://tinyurl.com/6j4a32

Nova Gold

http://tinyurl.com/5vblms

FNX Mining (nickel)

http://tinyurl.com/5qfvav

Denison Mining (uranium)

http://tinyurl.com/63wehe

Aurelian (gold miner in Ecuador recently bought by Kinross)

http://tinyurl.com/6nocsp

Goldsource Mines (coal discovery)

http://tinyurl.com/593spg

Northgate (Kemess project)

http://tinyurl.com/6g4slb

Rubicon Minerals

http://tinyurl.com/65ehpj

Yep, TBT up .50, .65 if you bought today's low.
What is happening in SA?
Anyone noticing the divergence with GFI?
GSS up over 5% with pm's but WGW is not participating.

nice little jump in gold, id like to see it close above $800 on some strenght and follow through w/ the shares before i begin buying w/ the remainder of my cash.

i sold the first gold shares i ever bought w/ my trading account today. it was the sprott precious metals fund. bought in feb/2006 and down %30 as of this morning ive had just about enough.

comprised of jr. gold's, and as evidenced by the Venture exchange i can no longer hold a pool of jr golds that have done nothing but go down under the watch of John Embry.

im not blaming him, im blaming myself and taking steps to correct something i should have done long ago. the technicals on the CDNX are dismal. it has gone down w/ the general market, it has gone down w/ gold, and has gone down as gold has gone up. it has done nothing but go down this year, all while newsletter writers continually claim the newest low as "spectacular buys", at "historic lows".

this morning for whatever reason as gold was up and gold shares followed, i saw the Venture exchange was down, alot. i had it and pulled the trigger. even if i miss their return to greatness during the next great up-leg of the gold bull market, i feel better getting rid of this relic of a holding. ill now look to deploy the cash to specific things, or to the XGD/GDX.

better late than never.

good luck to longs, most of my holdings are still gold, so im not hoping to buy lower so much as im hoping that the absurdity of the junior gold sector is more clearly understood by those underwater the past 2 years, subsiting on nothing but hope and newsletter writters to keep them afloat while venice sinks.

i feel better already!

WGW...add "either" after participating.....
Trying to figure out why GSS is up so much more than the others and WGW is still off and in the red.

UYG/SKF trade is starting to work out for me.

Craig,

GSS is a large, (operating), institutionally-owned company that frequently does 5 million shares a day.

WGW, while operational, is for whatever reason no enjoying institutional ownership to any great degree and does 150K shares on a good day. Volume that thin is not considered "tradeable", and that also limits participation.

Also, GSS has "bottomed" more on a technical basis and would be considered less of a gambit than WGW as a short term play for that reason also.

also the broad market appears to be going to Hell in a handbasket and folks are hesitant to go long anything.

"comprised of jr. gold's, and as evidenced by the Venture exchange i can no longer hold a pool of jr golds that have done nothing but go down under the watch of John Embry."

You have to ask yourself how these people managed to make 11% returns when the majority of their shares are off 50%.

F6? you mean the Venture Exchange shares themselves or the holders of jr. golds listed on teh venture exchange?

Embry has avoided making any more recommendations on gold stocks the past few quarters in his monthly newsletter which appears more and more like Federal Reserve Commitee statments in reverse.

10-yr yield is interesting, it's up today... everyone's going to cash?

i squeaked out some lunch money on DZZ. re-entered again, but i'm beginning to think it's a mistake. might get out EOD.

VIX appears to be breaking the upper resistance of the downtrend. we'll see if it holds until the EOD.

ALOHA !!

Has anyone noticed the share price of ECU SILVER(ECU.TO/ECUXF.PK)since the last drill results posted on August 12th? The share price of ECU is even higher than GSC(GSS symbol on TSX) now ... The current ask for ECU on iB is $1.80 ... GSC is $1.71CDN.

Their deposits are not the same but I use GSC as an example of a well known and widely traded security held by many funds and institutions compared to ECU which is not widely known or held or even on the AMEX!

You're right Dr. Cosa ... just exactly what does John Embry know? Apparently he is able to lose money like the rest of us!

I currently own ECU and I used to own GSC a few years ago.

Kaimu,

ECU.TO is in a "squeeze" (Bollinger Bands inside of Keltner Channels--reference MikeNYC's postings here lately) right now...bigger and better things may be afoot, although it's too early for me to get a good read on it. I'll keep an eyeball on it.

Craig,

A local bank is offering 5% on checking. The deal requires a debit card with a qualifying frequency of use and of course, a minimum deposit and average balance.

Five big banks here refused to change a $50 bill to a local reporter who did not bank with them.

Risk, trust and inconvenience are for the customer only.

SRS, EWZ(finally) and GLD all working for me today. Still kicking myself for not loading up SKF a week ago when short sale rule expired.

Re: Mining Sector

The mining sector is generally where the lambs get led out to slaughter, dr. cosa! At least, this forms part of my apprehensions to investing in the sector in the last year.

As far as newsletter writers are concerned, they are well aware that the people that read their letters can't differentiate between commodities, that they all fall into one lump and have a habit of profitting from their own recommendations. Its been a mixed bag of bears, but people failed to recognize one, much bigger market, which is the short selling industry.

At least ETFs were there for the decline.

I think Nassau is a good move. I dropped by on a cruise a couple of years ago and the town felt, you know, "just right." Bought some duty-free gold jewelry, had a very nice lunch. The Bahamas offshore aircraft registration and leasing business seems to be ticking along nicely. Yeah. Good idea...

REG CROWDER

Interesting story today on commodities outlook at:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/

http://tinyurl.com/65eltb

After taking some losses last month I'm repairing my capital slowly but surely by implementing some of the things I've learned or heard here. A big lesson for me is to stick with trading the champions, looking for clues to enter and exit in the discourse and Bill's comments. Today into G.TO at $33; SU.TO at $54.25; Shook out of SKF at $132.2, back in at $132.67. Not spectacular, but trying to build winning ways.

PNP.to (speaking of funds who may or may not know what they're doing in the mining sector)-> at the 52-wk low...

FXI also at the one-year low...

Grym, I couldn't get your link to work... looks like the last part was omitted somehow?

2nd - I see FXI at 1 yr low, and FXP 20% off its 1 yr high. Which is right/wrong??? Will be interesting to monitor; I'm watching for a long entry on FXI soon.

DaveB

ALOHA !!

2nd ... What was Sheldon's bonus for that performance? $20mil? Didn't I read somewhere recently he got a bonus? What kind of bonuses do fund managers get when their funds lose money? Or is it like attorneys, they get paid whether they win or lose?

G.TO out at $33.7
SU.TO out at $56.08
SKF out at $133.53
A little lunch money.

DaveB- that's a question for DavidV...;)

looking at the chart for LEH is just distrubing.

any suspect activity on the options side the past few days as its plunged on stronger volume this week...

next leg down for the XLF to follow?

Chicken,

Sorry. Sometimes I have had trouble when I enter the whole address.

http://tinyurl.com/65eltb

Here it is again, or you can go to...

http://moneycentral.msn.com/home.asp

then: The key to our wild market: Asia, by Jim Jubak

PNP:T - 2nd: my penance for owning POT since 2005 is I took a moderate positions(for me)in Pinetree and KRY. Guess I will just hold off until reporting season (4th qtr) for all the PNP junior's summer work programs and for Chavez & Co. to act one way or the other. Guess I viewed PNP as a 12 gauge approach going in, and I knew better with KRY having been involved with Ecuador (same 3rd world mentality as Venezuela) mineral exploration in the past. Happy trading all

- VIX sputtered
- XLF crossed, then recovered from July lows
- bond yields rose (prob just reac to PPI)
- SPX might have made a double bottom??

then again,
so-so volume

my UYG position bought itself another day or two.
looking to sell my 2nd DZZ trip tomorrow premkt.

getting used to the snorkel again...

Nearly exited SKF; however, there's more financial downside coming... Established an contrary position in UYG - optimizing gradient coefficient.

Craig

The key to the "teaser rates" are in the details. First, look at the disclosure: they apply payments in a manner most favorable to THEM (i.e., payments apply to the cut-rate not to new or subsequent purchases which will accrue interest at "normal rates"). Second, if it's 0% for a period of time, the rate will revert to the "normal rate" at the end.

It's a good deal if, and only if, you take the offer (probably balance transfer/cash advance) and don't use the card till it's paid off. Also, DO NOT MISS OR BE LATE WITH A PAYMENT.

The devil is in the details - ain't nuttin free.

Chickenpookie,

Percent wise SKF and UYG are exact opposites. Any gains in SKF are eliminated by UYG. And any gains in UYG are lost by SKF. So you are just tying up capital and not putting it to any use, optimizing nothing...

I do think that there is more financial downside coming unless government steps in to do something.

boss - I intend on realizing profit from both SKF and UYG, but not on the same day. Today's UYG purchase was the second half of the trade. This is my strategy, which is the alternative to attempting to catch the exact bottom and exact top of either trade. Shotgun trading, I suppose one might say... Anyway, financials are not doomed, and UYG will eventually recover from the current "low" price.

Hmmmm, a nice Up Day for the world's major miners:

Rio, Tech, BHP, Vale Inco, Goldcorp up 2.88%, 3.85%, 1.47%, 2.42%, 3.96% (on divident) respectively.

Bill, we're watchin'...

boss - SKF/UYG - Also, I am now at a hysterysis of just 5%, so either way, I will realize profit assuming volatility does not subside to one side. If that does occur, I will exit the loosing side and accept loss.

CP- re SKF/UYG

for all intents and purposes, the correlation coefficient between SKF and UYG is -1 (but because of the daily resets in both, the inverse correlation is not perfect)...would it not be simpler to take a larger position in SKF (since your bias is to the downside), then simply trade around the position (ie, sell some SKF into strength in place of buying UYG, and add to SKF on weakness in place of selling UYG)?

you're going to have to explain the concept of optimizing the gradient coefficient to me...

BTW, re Sprott Precious Metals Fund, Charles Oliver was hired over from AGF about 3 months ago to manage the portfolio, as Embry was the worst in class manager and an embarrassement to an otherwise good stable of funds.

Chickenpookie and b0ss,

I added to my SKF today.

I agree on the financials and gov interference. I'd say we need to be alert for more debt absorption by the Fed. I read some one's opinion that they could simply extend the time period for financials to cover losses.

I don't actually know this, but it seems reasonable the worst of the loans would have been the last ones made. The later in the game the more overpriced the properties would be and the most greedy the lenders.

If so, then even if we are, say half way thru in time until the bottom is reached, there may be greater dollars involved as time passes.

Any thoughts?

"2nd - I see FXI at 1 yr low, and FXP 20% off its 1 yr high. Which is right/wrong???"

DaveB -- I wrote a number of times about the mathematics of ultrashorts: when the underlying index moves up/down and then returns to the same place as before, the ultrashorts end up being LOWER than before. This effect increases as the percentage move in the underlying index increases. So while this is a minor issue with the TLT/TBT pair, it is noticeable with XLF/SKF and is even more noticeable with FXI/FXP.

Thanks Codger40, I'm a detail guy, so I'm up on the payments to the highest interest balances first, 3% transfer fee, and of course their biggest wish, that I'll carry the balance into higher interest rates, if it isn't the .99% offer until the balance is paid. All it takes is one use to throw that all off.
You're right, there's no free lunch.

I did it one time and bought a 12' dump trailer with 1% until it's paid (adding the 3% transfer fee of course), but I have enough zero balance cards (and cash to pay it off) should the need arise. I never miss payments and use online banking. One thing I've found with online banking, if the vendor screws up, the bank is on your side if you keep transaction conformation numbers. Had my phone Co. try to pull some BS on me once, the bank basically told them how it was going to be and they had no choice but to accept the bank verification of my payment.
Sometimes the little guy actually wins!
Now THAT was an interesting conference call.

Teamfuego,

Are you still holding onto VLO? Did you noticed that even when oil/energy is up, VLO managed to stay positive. One possible explanation is that the supply (of the stock) has dried and gasoline inventory is low and the "out-of-jail free card" is tomorrow. VLO is turning itself into more of an "integrate oil" company than just a refinery. I hope we'll have a very COLD winter to get some heating oil going ...

Yet another opinion on VLO, from Forbes:

http://tinyurl.com/6n7ok6

2nd - I'll attempt to provide an unconvoluted explanation through definition, try to keep an open mind to the concept:
Gradient (think in terms of differential):
http://tinyurl.com/hzkt9

Now for application of the differential concept, where p=price of stock and t is time:
solving Gain = f(D(p)/D(t) can only be approximated as we don't know tomorrow's price. However, we can control time to some extent. ie: as t->0 or t->infinity, the function takes on meaning as the gain would be greater as t->0 and less than unity as t->infinity, assuming p is a constant (p is a constant in terms of selling price, as you cannot sell at a price that is higher than the bid price).

So, by being on both sides of the trade and not knowing which (up or down) will occur first but that they will occur, up and down variables are compensated by holding time to a minimum. Time is thus optimized, allowing for a more rapid turnover of capital. The coefficient of realized gain is optimized in terms of turnover, and sacrificed in terms of obtaining maximum possible gain.

Again, another variation built on vinod's style of trading - optimizing return on capital by increasing the magnitude of capital and accepting smaller gain. Notice how vinod is usually in and out of a stock in a day or less? In this case, advantage is obtained through rapid turnover and sacrificed in terms of obtaining maximum possible gain.

In my mind, it beats the waiting game...

Did anyone buy into yesterday's fantastic close? That's another tactic I've been considering... but still need to study the dynamics.

Bill (in Washington, DC)- reference your 1035am post- enjoyed reading your opening (closing?) post, as well as the slide show in memory of patti...

we humans tend to be kind of lame when it comes to death, always thinking in terms of permanent loss or separation...what if in fact the exact opposite is true- that the pain associated with loss, 'endings,' and 'aloneness' signifies that we are to expect reunion or continuation at some future point? does "the animating Spirit separating from and leaving the body behind" not in fact still exist? JMO...

condolences and best wishes...

CP- well, i sort of understand what you're trying to say, but how does it change the fact that you should be able to achieve the same result trading SKF without complicating things by adding UYG? the variable we're talking about is time, right?

vinod- you're a gradient coefficient optimizer and don't know it, man...

Grym,

IMO, everyone agrees that housing prices will continue falling until affordable financing becomes available and new buyers enter the market. This wont/can't happen until new buyers arrive. For now, no one's coming, thus the market continues to fall (I often think in terms of Texas and the S&L crisis as an example).

SKF - Looks like a good shot at another decent high, but we can expect the gov to step in for a rescue at any time. They have more knobs to twist than they have money to throw, it could be an interesting ride.

I wouldn't think of betting the farm on SKF or UYG, just interested in playing the game for some mad money.

2 broughtnd

UNG 300 at 37.00
TBT 200 at 66.10
-VLOAF 5 at 5.60
and
out of which i got in morning
Sell to Close Put 2 Contracts of -OEBUN
Filled at $9.00
Sell to Close Put 1 Contracts of -OEBUS
Details Filled at $20.00

2nd
I brought

perfect example of what is wrong with SF:

http://tinyurl.com/5aktrr

"The commission took its action the day after The Chronicle reported that Edwin Ramos, 21, suspected in the June 22 slayings of Anthony Bologna and his two sons, Michael and Matthew, had committed two violent offenses when he was 17 but was spared from deportation to his native El Salvador under the city's sanctuary policies. Ramos is in custody in connection with the three slayings.

Ramos was identified by police as a member of a violent street gang, MS-13. He had committed an assault and attempted robbery as a 17-year-old. Each time, he was reunited with family living in the city and spared deportation."

as usual, plenty of funds and effort devoted to the end of "illegally providing offenders free flights home and paying for them to live in group homes outside the city in lieu of deportation," in spite of the fact that "several had fled from unlocked group homes." no funds and little attention paid to a grieving family that has lost a father/husband and two sons/brothers...

i don't necessarily have a problem with SF wanting to be a 'sanctuary city,' but providing sanctuary to illegal immigrant hoodlums at the expense of taxpayer funds and lives (no joke) is in fact no joke, it's a crime...JMO, of course..

2nd - Ok... Both time and price are variables. We cannot control price, but we do have the option of controlling time.

vinod can be or do anything he likes. I especially appreciate his willingness to share his ideas..... I also wish to share my ideas but perhaps shouldn't.

vinod- good to see you're still doing well...takes talent to drive safely in this kind of weather..

CP- no way am i am saying not to share your ideas...you have shared many good ones...i just had trouble understanding this one, but if it works for you, don't let me talk you out of it..

Hey team,

Let's take a look at what I'm calling an addendum to Bill's recent observations on Gold stocks versus the metal itself. U.S.A. Bullion and Cash holders may have potential reason to worry if the financial system experiences a "black swan" event. There's a precedent for governmental control over deposit boxes when the proverbial financial fecal matter hits the rotary blade.

Additionally, U.S. financial institutions WILL crash. Which ones? I have no idea. But mark it down.

And how much recovery can high net worth individuals expect from financial institutions that become controlled by the FDIC? For all the derisiveness thrown their way, talk to some Texans who survived the Savings and Loan Crisis. You don't want to go, hat in hand, to deal with regulators to try to recover your savings.

So, from my point of view, ownership in company stock of Gold miners makes intuitive sense. I doubt that the quality Candaian, Western Australian, et al gold miners have a chance of going to zero. However, there is a chance that certain safe deposit holdings and bank accounts *could* go to that. So, I'm paying attention to the Gold miners in the coming days and weeks and allocating my capital accordingly.

Pookster and 2nd:

That was my thought yesterday regarding SKF, the gubmint should step in soon. However, I'm wonderin' corollary to Kaimu's comment regarding GDP growth and monetary inflation, whether further FED action will have less of a "positive" effect on the market. The news is out the their balance sheet is runnin' out of ammo, and that there are still some big boys drowning. Further bail outs will be perceived as weakness because it all goes straight to the deficits. I would think that might make them attempt to limit market mechanisms from exerting downward pressure, which makes me think of Cox's comments regarding new short regulations, and perhaps margin requirement adjustments.

btw, as long as it's a slow night, making an editorial correction- i referred the other night to an early 70s van morrison LP as 'snow in san anselmo,' (which is actually just the opening cut)...the LP itself is titled after another cut- 'hard nose the highway..'

BP - How does this apply to those bullion holders with a stash buried on their property, or stored in an offshore vault? Are there warning signs whom those who might be affected should be watching for?

You don't ordinarily bring up the subject of armageddon, so my curiosity is peaking...

nemo- in that case maybe they should take FRE and FNM to zero (ie, let them become full government entities) and palm off as much of the 'toxic' trash as possible onto the public...

nemo - If the gvmt were really afraid of what would happen in the event of collapse and would do whatever it took to circumvent, would/could that also include massive cover-ups? I wouldn't put anything past these guys, they're more slippery than two eels in a bucket of snot....

Talk about sweeping the dirt under the rug, here's an article on carbon sequestration. Wonder if the technology will/has gone public... I think there may be some related ETF's.

http://tinyurl.com/6r8jbf

CP,

We're continually taught that we live in a "bell curve" / or a "Gaussian" distribution world. We're often taught to focus on averages ... grade point averages, simple moving averages, exponential moving averages, etc. I call B.S. in many applications of averages.

I believe we live in a world that, importantly, falls under a "Power Law" distribution . . . or, more quaintly, the "80/20" rule.

How many trading decisions--good or bad--have shaped our current situations? In the absence of knowing anyone's particular position, I'd bet that 80% of our results arise from 20% of our trades (unless we're pure scalpers all of the time).

How many absolute trading "home runs" have we hit on our accounts? Again, in the average case, I'd bet about 2 out of 10. And the right or wrong Power Law event (positive or negative) can make or break one's equity curve.

So, I try to think of things not so much in terms of Financial Armageddon, but more as one who worries about "What if a Power Law Distribution Event Occurs?" In my thesis, I'm completely ruling out a "positive" black swan event to rescue our long-term financial situation. If I'm wrong, I'm pleasantly surprised when the financial problems don't ruin our banks and governments.

But, if I'm right, I'm on the way to being covered if I've allocated a meaningful portion of my capital to gold stocks. For the reasons I've mentioned, I think there's a Power Law distribution chance that gold bullion / bank account / cash pitfalls will not befall well-selected gold miner stocks.

And, CP, more specifically--

I wouldn't stash my gold in the backyard. Get a jackhammer or other implement and knock a hole in your garage floor, stash your holdings, and sleep a little more soundly knowing that there's an extra layer of protection for your assets (the physical boundry of your home).

I've read the outstanding discourse here regarding the various benefits/risks of the Perth Mint, Goldmoney, etc. and, all I have to say is I don't have enough ($100,000s) in bullion to make international holdings worth my while. If I'm dipping into / trading my bullion, then, as Boz Scaggs said, "send lawyers, guns, and money" because the you-know-what has hit the fan. It's a contingent plan I hope I never need to use.

BP, with regard to your advice on jackhammering your garage floor, you may want to be careful about that. The steel bar underneath could snap suddenly and cause serious injury or even death.

Justin,

I didn't know any better when I did it. "Triumph of the uncluttered mind", I guess. But your point is well taken.

c3 - I just sold out of VLO yesterday. Had enough, but more importantly, I came to the conclusion that I don't know enough about the business, it is too dependent on other outside factors (i.e., USO, dollar, consumers' purchasing power), and I am hoping to find more suitable opportunities in the near future. I'm watching SRS if it falls back down to the high $70s and also hoping to jump into BAC at the low $20's or MELI in the low to mid $20's.

How about yourself?

Chickenpookie
Please post all your idea, and trading strategy
I notice some one sold OEX put yesterday but never seen post that they brought OEX put or any discussion about it.

We do not have to be right or correct about the trade as long as we do not lose

Dear Blowout Preventer:

I think that was Warren Zevon.

Dear 2nd: I would say it's a high probability that's what will happen with FNM and FRE considering the gubmint has already guaranteed to make foreign investor's hole. Pass the petroleum jelly to the taxpayers.

Dear Pookster: I think you and Sharkster get the award for viscerally reactive analogies.

Dear 2nd: Regarding SF and the killing. It's actually the natural problem of what was a wealthy society.

A wealthy society can afford a certain level of idealism because it can, to a point, afford such high-minded idiocy. It's similar to the homeless problem in that many of them, at least here in Massachusetts, are mentally ill (wonder if I'm calling the kettle black?)and were institutionalized until the combination of high-mindedness(it was abhorrent to "warehouse" people) and I believe, budget cuts, pushed them out on the street, which led to the high-minded individuals saying we must do something about the homeless problem. Of course, if you suggested to them that they should take one or two of them in, the usual commentary was that society should take care of them.

Oy weh! "foreign investors hole"

Vadym has nothing on my errors!!

2nd,

What's wrong with SF:

Secession was tried and failed, but how about expulsion? California marches to a different drummer. Let's just give them back to Mexico. (Waiting for them to drop into the Pacific is taking far too long.)

nemo,

"hole - whole", that was a good one. I see you are going to give me run for my money. I won't give up the title of the worst typist ever that easily though - I am training for years to make 4 mistypes in word "beer" and very close to making it. When I do, try to beat that!

Also, please, do not call them errors - I like to think of my mistypes as accent manifested in a written form.

BP, CP, Nemo and 2nd,

After what is de facto nationalization of the two Fannies, I would not exclude the gubment from doing anything. It is my understanding that in the thirties they only called in US gold coins, but that doesn't mean my Maple Leafs are safe.

BP, this is the first I've heard about the Texans and the S&L — any references we can go to for details?

Nemo, I doubt they will actually run out of ammo — they'll just print more. I think some people already realize the appearance of weakness means little when they have the full power of voter-neutral positions and congress is either too dumb to stop them or in collusion. (Most people are busy watching TV, U-tube, or just trying to cope with everyday life.)

Our deficits are so astronomical they are beyond comprehension. The cover-ups get more creative and complex each time.

CP, I like your two eels in a bucket of snot analogy — right on!

I may have sent this before, but it is a favorite quote.

"No one, as far as I know, has ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of plain people." H.L. Menchen, 1926

Grym: I think it's Mencken.

Vadym: I've had the same thought about your typing, it's just your accent.

In a strange way though, "hole" has a certain accuracy in my comment.

Funny about the gasoline inventory numbers;

Obviously gas use is up the last few weeks because prices have come down a bit, but I would think that usage is way down from last year. Wouldn't it make sense that inventories are down. Looks like they're cooking up a rationale to do some trading.