Got Gold Report - Gold Near a Bottom?

Looking at the CDNX, the closest index to the small resource sector, it is reminiscent of 2002's harsh sell down. Only this time the decline is much worse and makes much less sense given where gold and silver are currently trading.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=45229

Downsizing of finance underway

"The Corrigan plan to bring US-traded derivatives under the ambit of regulators is a feeble first step in the right direction. It at least demonstrates that much of the financial services innovation of the last generation was spurious and unsound, and needs to be done away with. Rents achieved by the financial services industry will thereby become much diminished, and millions of more or less honest if overpaid toilers will be thrown out of jobs. Needless to say, stock and bond prices will suffer a meltdown when this becomes fully apparent to the trading fraternity."

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/bearslair

mark hulbert on gold-timers: "Some gold timers still haven't thrown in the towel, a bad sign"

http://tinyurl.com/5k9gmu

"Consider where the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI) stands. It reflects the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Monday night, the HGNSI stood at 5.4%, meaning that the average gold timing newsletter is recommending that clients invest 5.4% of their gold portfolios in gold and gold-related investments.

"The good news, from a contrarian point of view: This 5.4% is a lot lower than the 64.3% level to which the HGNSI soared in early and mid July. The bad news is that it is not even lower."
What would lead contrarians to conclude that a bottom was finally at hand? Coming up with a single answer is difficult, since different contrarians have different thresholds that would trigger a buy signal. But, at a minimum, the HGNSI will probably need to drop into negative territory. That's because virtually every intermediate bottom in the gold market in recent years was accompanied by HGNSI levels below zero.
It's impossible to predict when that might happen. It might be, for example, that a couple more days of weakness will lead to capitulation on the part of the typical gold timing newsletter editor. But it also could be that a dead-cat bounce in the gold market leads to renewed hope on the part of the average gold timer, thereby postponing that bottom."

"

Good morning, troops.

There are no Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report.

---------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

[Bill Cara note;

As NY opens, I see that Europe is weakening somewhat.]

LDK Solar, a Chinese manufacturer of solar wafers, reported blow out earnings last evening. The entire sector is running in early trading on the news.

http://tinyurl.com/5u7ss4

This bodes well for companies the next step down in the supply chain. Companies like my recent under-performer, Evergreen (ESLR).

MaxPain update. Note there was a change of threshold for both DIA and QQQQ bringing them somewhat closer to max pain values. http://nexalogic.com/maxpain.html

U.S. Trade Gap Unexpectedly Narrows to $56.8 Billion

http://tinyurl.com/6mckoz

Good news. But I have to wonder if this surprise is only temporary as the world economy is losing strength while the dollar is rebounding.

Bill,

What kind of chair does $7500 buy?

This morning i posted the link to Charlie Munger's interview (Warren Buffett) and little info on the new oil VIX. That said, there a good gold chart as well.
http://wallastoninvestments.com/

WFMI - Buy Alert!!!! (don't fall for it)

I'd prefer to buy some of WFMI's delicious fruit salad if it wasn't about $12/pound.

Billy - Therin lies an indicator of the problem.

hmmmm ... check out BIIB, chickenpookie.

Did you hear the way Erin sucked up to Jeff Zucker, calling that bald eagle "good looking"?

Nothing against bald guys, but Jeff Zucker good looking? Cmon. Erin is being generous. I'm glad she's generous with somebody.

Jock was asking for opinions on the Kinross offer for Aurelian a few days ago.

The more I look into this deal the more it stinks. Before the deal Kinross's stock was pumped and Aurelian's dumped to make the deal look better than it was; just look at the charts. Aurelian's website was scrubbed - apparently in April - of all the detailed drill information that was there. And then one month before the deal management awards itself a large chunk of options. Worst of all, all other miners in Ecuador were and are saying that the political risk is minor and the new mining law will be favorable, except Aurelian management, which changed it's position when the deal was announced and doesn't want to wait to sell the company until the mining law is made public. And then they make a financing at $4.75 part of the deal even when Aurelian does not need financing for another year.

I pity the participants in the last financing - $40 million at $9.25 - who have been fleeced.

This deal stinks to high heaven. Management better pray this deal goes through or most of them will be thrown overboard in a mutiny. The retail investors are seething and eager to get the word out to a wide audience via press and youtube.

Another thing that upset me recently at Whole Foods.......for a number of years I went there for lunch and the people behind the deli were happy to make me a sandwich with whatever I wanted on it.......last time I was there the girl behind the counter told me they no longer make sandwiches to order, I would have to choose one from behind the counter..........just so happened that I wasn't feeling to well that day and just wanted something fairly plain..........so much for that.

So what really separates them from Safeway/Kroger now besides the prices? Most of the updated Safeways w/ the natural foods, granola section have about the same stuff.......and they will even make me a sandwich to order at Safeway

That's why investing in holes in the ground gives me the Willys.

Mackinaw - Now there you go! What do yo think will happen when the expiring-patent drug companies start snatching up bio-tech??? Ka-ching!!!

So why is BIIB so near the 52wk low? Do they hold patents? Otherwise, you bet!!!

Mackinaw - BIIB is located in Cambridge Ma. - Do you know what that means? MIT! Also, an impressive list of products!

Sharks trading principles for short term trading version 1

A) This is a highly predatory game similar to musical chairs in which the 15% of players, the market masters keep taking money from the other 85% over and over and over again.

B) You have to act before you know. If you wait until you know, then everyone else knows too and there is no trade. You can't wait for confirmation of your "correctness", just surf it and see what happens. What seems "safe" is actually quite dangerous, what seems dangerous is often fairly safe.

C) Not my original idea, but it's true that the best trades are the hardest ones to make. If it's really hard to pull the trigger, odds are better that you have a winner. Ever just sit there like a deer in the headlights? Can't pull the trigger on scary trades? Then you can't do this for a living.

Have you guys noticed that the "Crystallex People", those heavily invested in the troubled gold miner seem to have all disappeared?

BIIB stock got killed awhile back on some drug news. Excessive sell-off, I think.

Billy - Think of it this way; WFMI are the product price and service leaders and market sector trend setters. What could go wrong?

BH, AG.UN cut its distribution, down 14%. Got out around $12, I am back in at 6.10.

shark - Crystallex people - I think I saw them fly over my house in their shiney new Lear on the way to their private island in the pacific.

shark_attack said
Bill,

What kind of chair does $7500 buy?

I would also like to know how long ago is it that you bought the chair and do you still have it?

[Bill Cara note:

20 years ago, I bought the same chair that was bought by US Speaker of the House, Tip O'Neill. I offered to purchase it from Canaccord when I left, but the big ego that replaced the big ego that once sat in that chair wouldn't let go of it. That big ego wouldn't care today; he's dead. To me, that chair was the only symbol of power I ever cared about. A magazine once quoted me on that.]

shark- i like your rules...

Thanks, SiO2.

Definition: jr miner - noun; A hole in the ground where even savvy investors often throw their money, occasionally identified by a slight sucking sound.

So, dead cat bounce in the commodities today?

crunch time on BIIB, chicken. Which way do we go?

taking a stab at evergreen here

oh yah that was nice :) Great triangle breakout.

Hanfeng Evergreen, shark?

Mackinaw - BIIB - Excessive sell off could be an indicator of a need for more than a hand full of Excedrin.

DVAX - Here's one from the bowels that's ripe... They're located in Berzerkly, left coast.

Dvax is moving the wrong way and its a money-burner, not a money-creator :)

no, eslr

Shark,I agree with your rules except the second one. Based on my limited experiences of day trading (I have made nearly 25,000 trades since I started to learn this thing in 2007),yes you have to be early in the move, but confirmation is a must.The both extremes of the stock price were the most dangerous and expensive place for traders. Occasionally, I can buy at bottom or short at top, however, overall,to catch that point is a fool's game.There are always some wiggling on stock prices before the traders or market makers are about to make the certain move. I know some good traders can figure it out from reading the type. Time and Sales is still a mystery to me. My way to improve the probability of my trading is to watch the stocks in a group, such as financials. The price set up/pattern that every one can see does not mean it won't work, it works, but only after it is violated by other traders deliberately and shake the traders who trade the obvious out.Did you ever feel that they know exactly when you get in and when you will get out? I do not think it is accident or random.

USS - Pretty good div, I'd say - (80%)?

lol - can you imagine holding that stock (USS) since '05 watching it go down from $20-$18 and then drop off a cliff to a $1.50 over the next few months.

USS: Great div, but it will drop more than the quarterly div AH/tomorrow as we are likely on top of the clearing date. It's 2.90 +/- and it rose .66 today.

Should be fun to watch in the AH! Probably a decent short, then pick it up for the next div.

Mackina -BIIB - Is this a day trade? Good job!!! I was hoping to get into something like USS. I almost bought this one last week... shark syndrome, I guess.

USS - Come on guys/gals, why can't we find hot stuff like USS before they take their moonshot? sharkie came close but chickened out y-day...

I'm not gonna argue with a guy who's done 25k trades. But am I missing something? That's 76.92 trades per day on average since jan 1 2007. That's a whole lotta trades. Do I have this right? How have you been doing on them?

most trades I can do in a day is 2 :(

Hey Pookie,

A chicken is the ONLY animal allowed to call me chicken!

what the heck is up with that crazy mmfais dot com. The stupid site just released 9 press releases about different mutual funds "completely dumping" BIIB (yesterday?).

phew. Got out at $52.24

SKF - Tell me someone's not trying to keep it under $116 where the last battleground was.

SKF bottomed on the 200 day except for that little extra yesterday. Same with CPST

BIIB - Mackinaw - Good execution! There's proof you've got to keep tight watch them tail feathers. Or your fins, whichever...

Avanti Mining
New molybdenum entrant hopes to be industry consolidator.
The company published a NI 43-101-compliant resource estimate for the mine last week - at a 0,04% moly cut-off grade the project contains an indicated mineral resource of 158-million tons grading 0,10% molybdenum, containing 348-million pounds of molybdenum.

Inferred mineral resources are estimated at 133-million tons, grading 0,08% molybdenum, containing 235-million pounds of molybdenum.

Kitsault produced about 30-million pounds of molybdenum until it was closed in 1982, because of low moly prices.

The company expects the acquisition, from a subsidiary of Alcoa, to close by mid-October, and the next step will be to undertake a preliminary economic assessment and then determine an optimal permitting and feasibility path, says Nelsen.

If Avanti can complete an initial drill programme this season, a feasibility study could then be wrapped up by 2009.

“Permitting, post-feasibility study, could take up to two years, with construction taking about the same amount of time,” Nelsen estimates.
http://tinyurl.com/578rxn

Interesting article from CNN Money about how clients are being treated during the unwinding of the auction rate securities situation:

http://tinyurl.com/59wlpa

Choice quote:

"When there is an added incentive to sell an investment product," said a Merrill broker who did not sell auction-rates, "it's not typically a good thing."

CPST - Microturbines - That was to be my next research project! The Ronald Regan library generates all their power using refrigerator-size microturbines burning nat. gas... cost is less than grid elec.

CPST is a fascinating stock. I've traded in and out since below $1. It had been languishing recently, till you mentioned it, chickenpookie. up 14+% today !

FLR -

Anyone watching? Great earning report, up the guidance, but is down 10%. Huge sell-off by institutions yesterday before earning report. Wonder who're the people buying at 81 at premarket?

CPST - Negative earnings + "Even more troubling were some comments from Capstone’s CEO, Darren R. Jamison, in a Bloomberg article last week. Jamison said: “$50 million in sales is very obtainable and reasonable this fiscal year and that profitability by 2012 was a reasonable date.”

Here’s the problem: Now the CEO has a credibility issue. First, he’s announcing internal financial projections to the public, which the company says it doesn’t do. Yet it just did. Second, now the company has to hit those numbers, or people will think he was attempting to hype up the stock."

James Altucher

Bad news? Maybe that's a stretch? Opinions?

Bill,

You've always been good since I've known you. But this weekends WIR, specifically the gold-down call was so right on it's MONEY!

I wonder how many of the funny hat people put your money! advice to work or did they sit in their closet fondling the bullion?

DGP @ 16.95...

IMO, some folks don't understand why Bill does what he does for the same reason they'll never understand how he does what he does. There are givers, takers, and traders.

Excerpt from yesterday's CPST conference call. Financing Working Capital may be an issue. (New stock offering?) Also, transitioning to the new product line over the next quarter is a hurdle.

Comments From Capstone Turbine's Q&A and Conference Call (CPST)

Capstone_logo_3 After the Capstone Turbine Corp. (NASDAQ: CPST) earnings report, we listened to the conference call and the question and answer session from analysts to get a better handle on the quarter and what is out in front of it on the calendar. Below are some excerpts from the analysts and from the company (listed only as company to avoid which officer was saying what). As a reminder, these are comments and a synopsis or paraphrase rather than direct quotes on individual models and exact metrics. Also, keep in mind that comments on the conference call were sometimes interrupted or not entirely heard in entirety.

Before going to Q&A, the company noted that the company is exploring military orders but does not expect any meaningful revenue from that sector in fiscal 2009. It is seeking marine certification and if that occurs it could see orders occur from that in fiscal 2009. They are also in discussions with a CLASS A truck manufacturer for that market penetration.

There was a $1.9 million order that the company didn't book from a customer that didn't line up the credit properly, but that has now occurred if you listened to the Q& A session. Here is backlog in units:

* "238" C30's
* "206" C60's
* "67" C200's
* "55" C1000's.

The company said they believe they are past the "market adoption phase" and are now in the manufacturing phase with real orders. Without giving formal guidance, the company said that Fiscal 2009 (now in Q2-2009) is expected to be its greatest year in operating history.

LAZARD CAPITAL asked about backlog and revenue conversion to revenues and commented on lumpiness of revenues.... Company responded that they prefer to look at a combined revenue and backlog together. Again, the backlog is actually understated as it does not include parts, maintenance, and services. They company wasn't specific but did note that revenue should go up even though they are susceptible to single customer orders.

WACHOVIA asked about backlog, but then asked WORKING CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS.... the company noted that future demands are capital intensive and the company noted that it first would set up lines of credit or bank loans, but last choice would be to resort to a securities sale after that but did note that it is a possibility....

ARDOUR CAPITAL... Asked about shipment and manufacturing capabilities... can ship 2,000 units right now if they were at full capacity by adding shifts and could do 4,000 annual units if they increased expenses (and if raised capital was what it sounded like). But constraints rely on external suppliers rather than on internal configurations.

NORTHLAND SECURITIES: Asked if Capstone is on track to be cash flow positive by year-end? They are based on orders today and backlog. Need plants up more and need more consistency from suppliers. Using Just in time with materials is the current environment. Still on track for UL and CE certification, also Greenvironment(?).

BROADPOINT CAPITAL... On Launch of new products in September, what are major hurdles to achieve? Company is past design hurdles and they are looking at maintainability and getting assembly line up and running... also getting inventories of parts and supplies in timely manner. DOES COMPANY NEED FINANCING FOR NEW ORDERS (or on new product launches)? Capstone wants to make sure new orders are sustainable before making large capital commitments and they should know that in roughly 1 quarter. In R&D and SG&A, besides UTC funding expiring in 2010, but if they get other programs then that current R&D and SG&A should remain mostly the same... Doesn't anticipate adding major headcount but will increase small headcount here and there. Noted adding one staff member in Houston because of demand from oil and gas sector and may add one in India it sounded like.....

As far as the stock reaction, shares are not down as much as they the 3% after the actual news came out. Shares went up to +1% after LAZARD asked its questions as the first in line, and shares are down almost 1% at $2.40 currently after the Q&A at 5:50 PM EST.

True chicken,

And finally there are some guys more interested in the bullion in their sock drawer than in learning to become a trader.

Shark, you got the number right. The best day trader I have known is doing thousands of trades per day (about 4000), I won't believe that either if I did not see it by my own eyes. And he is taking money from others in the market almost every single day. I am not trying to suggest every active trader doing the same thing.Obviously there are many ways to make money from market. What I am trying to say is even the small swing in the stock prices is not random, there are people behind the move. Once that trader show me a chart.There was a tail on the bar penetrating the support level. He told me "see the tail, that was me, I did it." He did that because he knew that would trigger the stop loss orders and create panic selling, so he put some bid orders below and took the apples falling from the tree.And when he saw the index future was pumping up, he dumped those shares gradually on the way up.
Although time frame is different, I think what Bill tells us here is the same thing, with more fundamental reasons and from broad perspective. But the motives behind price movement is the same.

Man that SKF trade this morning was a pop fly.......had it on the radar in light of UBS but didn't follow through.

SKF bouncedd off the 200, but the RSI has been gradually slopping up since 23 July. Might want to wait for the MACD to cross and RSI to maintain its rise

CPST starting to give it back. Probably good for trading, but the cloudiness over the new products and the Working Capital situation is likely to weigh on shares.

A technical analyst was on lunch hour at BNN. His top pick: TLT (long!).

Here's an interesting YouTUbe video analysis of oil manipulation earlier today (taken around 11AM ET). Some good hints, like up bars with high volumes being actually good short signals. It's from Tradeguider, ignore the commercial stuff.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFdvzMwABvs&fmt=18

Anybody uses this system here?

SmallCapFan,

Just a question showing my total ignorance here, but, to accomplish 4000 trades, your day trading acquaintance is using some kind of computer system / algorithm?

BTW, the &FMT=18 at the end of the URL I added myself, It improves the quality of the video...

I'm a believer in fibs. Gold/GLD is back to a level I identified a long time ago, but didn't believe I'd ever get a chance to buy at again. (I'm using GLD as that is what I have a longer chart for.) My interpretation is that there are multiple fib levels for GLD in the $77 to $78 range. If it gets back to there it will have:
- retraced 38.2% of the entire move from Feb 2005 to Mar 2008.
- retraced 50% of the move from Oct 2006 to Mar 2008.
- retraced 61.8% of the move from Aug 2007 to Mar 2008.
There are also multiple fib extensions down of the 2008 moves that end in the $77 - $78 range.
So from strictly looking at this one indicator, GLD has a lot of support near this level. If these don't hold though, the next grouping I would say is in the GLD $63 - $64 range. I hope we never see that again! The other indicators I watch (RSI, MACD, MAM) aren't giving a "buy" signal yet, but combined with the fibs, they are all definitely giving a "watch closely" signal.

Nasdaq broke through its 200MDA [2436]. SNDK & QQQQ moving up

SEC temporary naked short rule ends tonight.

SEC rule ends tonight, and I thought it might be a good time to buy the SKF before hand. I guess everyone else thought the same thing and beat me to it...

I'm willing to believe you do 70 trades a day. But 4000? That's a new, distinct trade every ten and a quarter seconds. How's he do that, with a computer? Automated?

Blowout Preventer, No.He did it manually.He is fast hitting the hotkeys on key board.Another reason is he never loaded up in one trade. See if he wants to buy 5000 shares, he would keep buying on 100 shares lots rather than 5000 shares all at once to hide his intention. I think the trading desks of funds, banks would do the same thing.If you watch Time & Sales, sometimes you can observe the order flow on the certain price level, especially on the very important price level. A lot of games playing around there. For example, if a trader wants to sell (or short selling), he can put a lot of bid orders below a resistance level, and only few offers, makes it looked the buying interest is strong, and the resistance is about to be broken. However, on the other hand, he just keeps putting new offers there, small lot by small lot. So once after he dumps his long inventory or load enough short selling position, he just withdraws those false bids. Booo, price collapses. Longs buying into the false strength or false break-outs are trapped.

If you are an investor, you do not need to bother by those tactics. But if you are a short term trader,then that is the very important lesson to learn, to interpret the order flows (the data, as Bill suggests). Short-term trading is zero sum game. Traders are fighting and cheating against each other. That is the reason why I made so many trades, because you can only learn trading by trade more.When trading, you are only competing against others, you have to deal with your own emotions, greed, fear, fear of losses, fear of missing opportunities. That is why trading from simulator account rarely pay off, but there is emotion and pressure involved,and based on my experience, eventually it is a trader's ability to control himself determines his success or failure.

If using computer system, it would generate much much more trades than that. A trading program can keep sending orders in light speed to take advantage of the spread between bid and ask orders (that is what I read from a trading magazine, I have no knowledge about program trading at all.)

I am not a good one so far. So I still keep trading small sizes to accumulate my experience and skills while keeps the cost of learning at minimum level. Short term trading is a play ground where 5% of players take money from 95% players. It is interesting that stock trading is an activity that can helps to find yourself every day. The weakness of a trader's personality will be exposed totally and completely, like it or not.
Good luck.

Thanks for that response SmallCapFan!

I know that I've learned more about my mental strengths and weaknesses through trading than almost anything I've done. The scenarios are always changing, but, in the end, the score / grade is always there to analyze.

Out...this market's going south folks.

Regional banks like ZION are starting to melt.

Me likes CPST, will monitor for hard pullback. Money for biscuits & mustard...

ALOHA!!

No nation in the history of civilization has ever devalued themselves to prosperity. We have been witnessing a global race to do so ...

Whats changed really?

On that note ...

I moved out of AGTHX in June and split 50-50 into PSPFX(oil) and UNWPX(PM) yesterday on my retirement account.

I also bought gold(6kilos) and silver(6,000 ozs).

lot of money in flowers

Note that we are now back to within 1% of most Max Pain values. http://nexalogic.com/maxpain.html

shark - Bullion dealers should offer 2" Au cubes embossed with letters and numbers. It would be a hot seller...and educational tool.

vinod/shark/David- taking it ALL OFF the table into the lift in miners-> GG/SLW/GDX/WGW, back to 100% cash...

My bet, being one of a few sons of electricians aside from our fearless leader, is there is more in electrical contracting then growing flowers for fun and retirement/tax purposes. There is a time.....
We can all learn a lot from Kaimu.

kaimu - You got a smokin' deal at these prices... truly a blue-light special.

2nd
I have nothing but OEX put will unload all before 4.00p.m

So, will the PM's be the first to dance, and is this the last waltz? We'll see...

...add DGP to the list of positions taken off...

SKF - Which way will the gap go?

...and GSS-> taking a hit on GSS...

ALOHA !!

I have what may be a simple question that I am sure some staffer over at the US FED could answer super fast ...

I have read that the FDIC needs more money so they are raising the premium they charge banks up from $.06 per $100 to some unannounced sum.

What bank does the FDIC keep their funds in and is it FDIC insured? Just thinking ... it seems the counterparties to all these derivatives and bond issues have to bank somewhere and in effect the FDIC is a major counterparty to all US savings deposits. Where's their money?

Wouldn't it be interesting if Cox came out tomorrow with ammended rules on shortselling. I wonder if the shorts are being set up. Considering the state of the financial system, I wouldn't doubt it.

ALOHA !!

CP ... No, I got a better smokin' deal back in 2001!

While everyone was buying the TECH bargains I wasn't ...

Bill - “Why do people go into a store to ask a sales person ‘what is it I need?’ and expect that person to do anything other than sell you what he or she’s got in inventory?

When I sell boats (off and on), I advise the customer that whatever he/she decides to do or what to buy, he must first take the vessel for an in-the-water test drive. That customer almost always comes back to me.

[Bill Cara note:

Chickenpookie, that's the way it needs to be done. In my case, I just tell them up front what's going to happen, and they want to come back for more. (LOL)

Opening quote from this morning's DR: "Traders are now getting the message that the commodity boom has gone bust. For now they are scrambling back into financial assets, ignoring that time-worn expression “caveat emptor” – buyer beware."

Proof of concept: LEH down -12.1% today; JPM down -9.5% and the DJIA down -140 points.

But, you knew that this morning before the open! (LOL)]

kaimu - Tell me that same thing next July!!! Ha!

CP- all i can say, man, is DON'T FORGET to sell SKF into strength...

That means now

All of it?

actually a half hour ago would have been better, but congtratulations.

ALOHA !!

On the same line of thought as the FDIC ... Way back last year when juniors and miners were announcing their exposures to ABCP I never heard a peep out of the Fortune 500 companies like MSFT, GE and the likes. Where's their billions? Am I suppose to believe that these huge companies did not want to take advantage of that extra 1% return? So, only the mining sector had problems? Or was the mining sector the only sector reporting problems? Hummmm?? I still hear nothing about corporations and their exposure to bad paper. I guess there never was any exposure!

I hate to disappoint, but I still haven't sold. I know that's not the most prudent thing to do, but I just heard more warnings about a bank failure so set up a limit sell order. I wont say what that limit was, though. Let's just say it's more than I paid for the SKF...

Kaimu always has to urinate on the clambake :)

CP-> i can't advise you exactly when...all i know is you had 3 or 4 chances to sell into strength/buy back on weakness in the past week, which beats watching the position ebb and flow, right? don't worry, you have the after-hours market to make that move should you decide to do so...

Pookie,

What you did may be entirely correct for you. Tomorrow could turn out to be 1929 all over again, or worse. It is true, you had a good selling oppty today but if you want to let it ride, if you're comfy with that then God bless it.

ALOHA !!

Just got this from Ron Paul today. I guess his wife is doing better ...

Anyone here live near Minneapolis,MN? Go to this on SEPT 2nd!

I would go if I were near there, but we have our own RALLY FOR THE REPUBLIC daily here ... called "The Shire"! HA!!

FOR LIBERTY ... THE RALLY FOR THE REPUBLIC ... SEPT 2, 2008

Our Campaign for Liberty is causing quite a stir in the country's political establishment. The Rally for the Republic will be the official kick off of this organization which will be a true grassroots activists organization dedicated to taking back our freedoms from a government and political establishment run amok.

I urge you to purchase your tickets now, before its too late.

The event is already about two-thirds of the way sold out only two weeks into ticket sales. Liberty lovers from across the nation are planning their pilgrimages via air, car or Ronvoy, many willing to camp out under the stars just to join us in Minnesota for the historic-to-be Rally for the Republic.

Then I'll see you there, at the Target Center, September 2, and we can, together with 13,000 of our closest friends, absorb the words of Grover Norquist, Doug Wead and Barry Goldwater, Jr. We'll also enjoy Tucker Carlson's humor, appreciate the talent of musicians Aimee Allen, Rockie Lynne and others, and best of all, join with me in launching the Campaign for Liberty.

Link: www.RallyForTheRepublic.com

I did see that 122 earlier an almost sold some but then thought - what the heck, there's more bad news coming. Sorry, but don't give up on me; I'm just more hard-headed than you might imagine...

nemo - Hey - why not, the clams are overcooked anyway and the beer is only rented...

Pookster:

I was at Oktoberfest back in 1983, when I saw this on the "Pissort" wall. "Pissort" by the way, is the proper word for a place to do #1 in German.

Bier ist nuer vermietet, nicht gekauft.
only rented not bought

Mmm, the spacing didn't hold.

kaimu,

I expect the FDIC funds are stored with the Social Security funds.

If they carry a large enough balance we will each get a toaster. (in lieu of a check)

ALOHA !!

I am flying to Honolulu tomorrow. I will be staying at the Hilton Hawaiian Village with some long time friends from las Vegas! Can't wait to hear all their real estate stories ... NOT! These guys thought the stock market was too risky after the TECH CRASH so they got into Las Vegas real estate and now wished they didn't. As everyone else thought back then they bought the idea that real estate is a "no risk" venture ... It seems they are now stuck with properties they can't sell and renters they can't stand! Man ... I used to be a landlord in the 1980s ... what a load that was!

I stayed at the Hilton Hawaiian Village last time I was in our 50th state.

Let me know if the burn marks and carpet stains ever came out!

Bu the way, if we call the phone/fax number for tracking do we get to speak with you?

Thanks for the German phrase, I'm writing it down.

Are the scars gone from your knees Sharkster?

shark - I'd add to that but the crowd might take offense. Biting my tongue...

Something about a demon...

Pookster, do you mean his ability to still make noise during flatulence?

Bill,

Finally found time to read today's blog. Such clarity about life in your opening commentary. Thanks very much.

The late James Brown wrote a lyric that goes like this:

I don't want nobody to give me nothin',
Open the door,
I'll get it myself.

shark looses composure and allows the demon to escape....

So you huckleberry's think you're pretty funny..... eh?

Doc holliday (Val Kilmer):

"I'll be your Huckleberry"

Anybody here ever use a 60-minute chart with MACD (65, 90, 12) as an indicator? Martin Pring mentions it in his book.

I usually wait to buy on daily charts, but I'm experimenting (on paper) with working this in to my entry decisions. So far so good, very much appreciate any observations.

You know we luv ya sharkie. Huckleberry style!!!

Thanks for the tip Blowout Preventer. That configuration looks very interesting on my charts. It seems to time the turns well; we shall see going forward.

Thanks Bill for the encouraging words.

Thank you!!!

2nd
SSEC down over 60%
FXP up 13% in 2 week

do you think it is time for CAF/FXI for long
not for day trade?

I love hourly charts. I also love 15 minute charts, 5 minute charts, daily charts and weekly charts. I particularly love them when they all point the same way.

vinod,

I can see the potential for a swing trade set-up, but all I can say for FXI and CAF, is, for me, "not yet"

DE - FYI Deere reports tomorrow. 1% gap up after hours. (no pos)
HRB - H&R Block might get a boost from sale of financial advisors unit.

Marketwatch stocks to watch:

http://tinyurl.com/5bpf3b

Bill mentionned recently that POG and $USD could rally simultaneously.

This article explains how this may come about: http://www.safehaven.com/article-10969.htm

I just got in and saw that the market took a plunge today and some of these after hours posts gives me the impression people here are expecting a major drop tomorrow also. Is that correct?

Hard to tell Kim

But there's a lot of red ink in Asia tonight and the credit crisis shows no signs of abating. Housing keeps doing it's thing, and therefore there's no basis upon which to issue new credit. The Federal Reserve has gone from being lender of last resort to being creditor of last resort, thereby crippling their balance sheet, and hence their ability to act going forward.

The banks and brokers wanted a taxpayer bailout to shield them from the brunt of their mistakes. Our system is quite broken, with no accountability, shareholders don't get wiped out, taxpayers do instead.

I see no reason this thing shouldn't get a whole lot worse. Tomorrow? I have no idea about tomorrow 'till it's here and hitting me in the face. What do you think?

I don't think that's necessarily so, Kim. The US markets are in a short-term up trend and today's action was not altogether suprising, motivated by possibly a bit of profit-taking and/or bargain-hunting in beaten-down commodities. I think the general concensus around here is that there will be another major drop at the end of this rally but I think there is some uncertainty about when (1 day? 1 week? 1 month?) this will happen.

I agree with Shark, Kim. There is some disquieting action in the Asian markets over the last 3 sessions and that could spread to bring this US rally to a quick halt OR it might actually strengthen it (flight to safety?). Interesting times.

2nd_ave: I was away from the market for the whole day and I just now got to reading the daily posts. Why did you sell all your PM positions? I remember in the case of refiners, you dedicated them as long-term positions, which you were willing to hold for months until they rise by 50%. So making such medium-term investments is something that you can potentially do. Why didn't you dedicate your PM positions as medium-term investments? Do you think that the chance of them being higher than now within 6 months is less than 50%?

DavidV

We're turning 2nd into a daytrader David.

Allright, folks, tomorrow is very important--

If the markets retreat, then indecision takes control and anyone's guess is as good as mine.

If the market makes a third-straight daily gain, I'll be looking for continuation of the short term trend.

Dear Blowout, what gain did the market make today?

Asian Markets getting early whacked overnight. Commodities firming a bit. US Equity futures pretty flat.

David- i still think it's one step up and two down...i was early buying friday on two steps down, as gold stumbled even further on monday-> i bought more GG/SLW into that sell-off and reached my limit on GG...today gold dropped another 8-10 dollars, yet miners lifted around 1230pm PST and i sold into it without much thought/hesitation...if i try to 'explain' it now, i would say (a) i recognize strength when i see it and almost always sell into it, (b) i didn't have to think twice b/c of the divergence-> gold down/miners up- why stick around to find out which of the two wins that tug of war when it's going your way, and (c) i was able to exit essentially flat (losses on GSS offset by minor gains on SLW/GG), and a clear table helps me think clearly when there's a divergence...

do i think they'll be higher in 6 months? better than even-> what keeps me from taking a medium-term position is bill's take:

"Do you recall what I wrote at the end of June about the $XAU (goldminer share index): “Two-day rocket!” That was the trap that sucked the gold bugs in, and then I saw XTA and TCK shares plummeted immediately after that. I have opined in the blog that these two stocks are traded by the world’s best traders, bar none, so I always keep my eye on them."

when GG and SLW were lifting at 1230, TCK was still red and dropping...

"For $GOLD, the 50d MA is now 914.45, and the 200d MA is 891.62. The current price (864.80) is Bearish. I do think that, for gold and the other precious metals, there will be a testing of the 200d MA resistance, but that will likely fail and the market price will sink to a new cycle low that will set a base for the next Bull phase of the long-term secular Bull in precious metals."

"For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 17.46, and the 200d MA is 16.83. The current price puts silver in a Bear market. You’ll see the same for gold, platinum, palladium, copper, and the goldminer shares, if you care to look. My prognosis (not that I’m a doctor) is that silver will be like gold and the other precious metals and find a cycle bottom before resuming its secular Bull trend. I can’t guess when that would be. I am like you; we need to watch the data, and then make decisions."

august 2007 bill was clearly bullish...i don't know about you, but right now he sounds bearish...so any positions i take right now will be ST trades...

"We're turning 2nd into a daytrader David."

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 12, 2008 11:33 PM

that too-> my attempt at a longer-term trade in the refiners kicked my ass and i need a few months before walking down that alley again...

Thanks for the explanation, 2nd_ave! I'll put tight sell stop orders for tomorrow for SLW shares that I added at $9.7 (while still keeping the sell limit order at $10.7) and for SWC that I added at $6.3 (while keeping a sell limit order at $7.1).

Also, I am placing a buy stop order on DBA at $34.1. The past couple of days make it seem like people are switching from "hard" commodities to "soft" commodities.

But then, the DBA chart does not seem like it has generated a buy signal, so I'll hold off on buying it. I am learning, g034! :)

shark_attack, Mackinaw

Thank you.

David, I believe your commodities view on a hard to soft switch makes sense.
1. Global econ may very well slow temporarily = less need for metals, etc.
2. People will still need to eat and any earlier announced shortages cannot have been filled.
I strongly suspect selloff in most was due to financials taking profits to raise much needed cash.