Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

AET - Banc of America Sec. initiates coverage with a Buy....Price Target $56

----------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

Nah, it's about selling commercials, not providing value.

"the little guy"

All depends on your definition. Suspect Craemer's "little guy" is a hedge fund "guy" making 20 mil a year.

Re: Tuesday’s post on S. Korea.

Yesterday, returned late in the day and checked on the markets . . . decided to dip the toe with a little IRA money into EWY @ 47.50 as it broke thru 30 daily RSI7 and finished with a RSI7 near 40. Keeping a leash on it.

Scottraders

Anyone beside me having trouble accessing their [Scottrade] trade screen this morning?

bought some FXI on retracement. bought some MER on retracement on the July low.

No apparent basic Scottrade problem here. Using Mozilla Firefox.

I was ignorant as to Hill and Knowlton reference. For anyone else that is, here is some interesting reading about them.

http://tinyurl.com/bsy8l

000
WTNT41 KNHC 210849
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT FAY IS NOT STRENGTHENING.
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 62
KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT...WITH PEAK ACTUAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 50 KT FROM A DROPSONDE AND 51 KT FROM THE
SFMR. THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 993-994 MB.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.

AFTER DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TONIGHT...FAY IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AGAIN JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FAY...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT
STALL...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD
WESTWARD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN FAY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A
GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW SHOWS A
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET
GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THE RADAR PRESENTATION OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS ACTUALLY
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME EROSION NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS STILL SUPPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION...THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE WOULD
ARGUE AGAINST MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ASSUMING
THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT IN KEEPING FAY INLAND AFTER
THAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.

QT, Elite working OK, though I've noticed that it loses the connection occasionally - started a couple of days ago. No change at my end, so I assume its a problem with their servers.

RDR

Thanks...

cyderman

The Tech people got me up and running. Was a small software glitch. Wooow not being able to access your account in this market environment can evoke a sense of fear. :-)

Couldn't resist adding to EWZ yesterday.....now avg cost of 85.95.

I've only been able to scan the blog lately but it looks like shark has been hitting it out of the park lately......ABK, LNG and NVDA....well done.

QT, Posted by: QT at August 20, 2008 2:16 PM
"Anyone know how to set up the TICK - TRIN indicators as shown here
http://tinyurl.com/6bs3xq
on "Stockcharts.com" with a time interval of 1 min or 5 mins? This one in the article is set for 10 mins."

Sure QT, I have an example on the "Stockcharts Support Forum" over on IHUB, better to keep the Stockcharts tips and tricks over there rather
than here, just so we can keep on topic on both sites.

See link http://tinyurl.com/6om3vx

And here is the chart in question pulled up in the charting engine so you can see the actual settings to achieve the result.
http://tinyurl.com/5l7e7w

Let me know if it works, if you have problems just ask over on the support forum.

Quasi

Quasi

Bless you! :-)

That is exactly what I was looking for. Also thanks for the 1st link. I will scan it to find some of your other posts.

How many people here have been a part of, or have had extensive personal knowledge of, an event that was "picked up on the newswire" or otherwise reported?

We all have. And I'd wager that, in virtually every case, the "reporter" either got key parts of the story wrong or they left out information that was important to place the events in context.

The thing is, good journalism CAN be accomplished, just like any other endeavor, it takes a commitment level and effort level that very few are willing to achieve.

Bill,

Where's Cronkite? At least he retired fair and square. The more relevant question is, where's Dan Rather? It's true, Dan was an adherent to the single bullet theory, but other than that, he was generally a good objective reporter. So one day he reports a story:

"On September 8, 2004, Rather reported on 60 Minutes Wednesday that a series of memos critical of President George W. Bush's Texas Air National Guard service record had been discovered in the personal files of Lt. Bush's former commanding officer, Lt. Col. Jerry B. Killian. The authenticity of these documents, initially based on their being proportionally printed, was quickly called into question by a small group of conservative bloggers, (those damn bloggers again) leading to claims that the memos were forgeries. The accusations then spread over the following days into mainstream media outlets including The Washington Post, The New York Times, and the Chicago Sun-Times.

Rather and CBS initially defended the story, insisting that the documents had been authenticated by experts. CBS was contradicted by some of the experts it originally cited. CBS later reported that their source for the documents, former Texas Army National Guard officer Lt. Col. Bill Burkett, had misled the network about how he had obtained them.

On September 20, CBS retracted the story. Rather stated, "if I knew then what I know now, I would not have gone ahead with the story as it was aired, and I certainly would not have used the documents in question." The controversy has been referred to by some as "Memogate" and "Rathergate."

Following an investigation commissioned by CBS, CBS fired story producer Mary Mapes and asked three other producers connected with the story to resign. Many believe Rather's retirement was hastened by this incident. On Thursday, September 20, 2007, Rather was interviewed on Larry King Live commenting "Nobody has proved that they were fraudulent, much less a forgery. ... The truth of this story stands up to this day."

We all know how the story ended, with Rather's forced departure from the CBS anchor chair, but what is the significance?

That a sitting coke-sniffing draft dodger could call for the head of the premier newsman in the nation and get it because Rather reported a story WHOSE FACTUAL VALIDITY HAS NEVER BEEN SERIOUSLY CALLED INTO QUESTION speaks volumes about the state of the nation and the media's place in it.

Make no mistake: This media is not a watchdog, but a lapdog. They've been handpicked and cultivated to supplicate to power and to be loathe to question the motives or intentions of those who rule. Finally, an personal anecdote:

A few years ago I was on a crosstown bus (m86) talking with a woman who, it turned out, was a producer for 60 minutes. This meeting came hard on the heels of the killing of Cliff Baxter

(John Clifford "Cliff" Baxter (September 27, 1958 – January 25, 2002) was a former Enron Corporation executive who resigned in May 2001. He sold a large quantity of Enron stock during the months prior to Enron bankruptcy. Reportedly, Baxter clashed with CEO Jeffrey Skilling over questionable Enron business practices. Before his death, he had agreed to testify before Congress in the Enron case.)

When I mentioned to her that, due to the bizzare circumstances of his "suicide" that the topic would make great fodder for a 60 minutes story, she turned ghost-white and dismissed the notion out of hand.

When the government and the corporations work hand in hand to manage the economy and the political sphere, there is only one word that correctly describes the condition...

Fascism.

(Various scholars attribute different characteristics to fascism, but the following elements are usually seen as its integral parts: nationalism, corporatism, militarism, authoritarianism, populism, collectivism, statism, dictatorship, and economic planning. In addition, Fascism opposes liberalism and communism)

Colin Twiggs:

http://tinyurl.com/54qccl

crude: may test 120-122...in the event of a recession in China, a drop to 50 is possbile...

gold: may test 850...downside target 700...

nice to have possible scenarios in mind, and IMO no need to chase anything right now...100% cash and no opinions on market direction..

Sounds like the consensus is not to chase gold equities here as we are in the bottoming process and there is a strong feeling that this run to $831 or above is not sustainable - and that perhaps these gold equities should see a pullback again - concur?

[Bill Cara note:

There is an unusually high level of pumping of gold and oil prices that started yesterday afternoon, so this trend may carry on for a few days. But I do believe with most of the HB&B currency analysts that there has been a sea change in the $USD, which is now bullish longer-term, and that will push oil and gold and other commodities lower in price long-term. For this week, however, the opposite is true. Day traders don't mind.

Having said that, there could be stuff going on in Washington re movement of US troops and support to Afghanistan and Pakistan, partly in response to the Russian move into Georgia. That is a concern. More war spending means more inflation, which is $USD crushing.

Also, a saving of Freddie, Fannie and Lehman by the Treasury/Fed would also signal lower $USD.

Traders are on eggshells, waiting for the next bump from Washington.]

DavidV- you're not going like the airlines this morning, man...but then you're six hours away from booting up and anything can happen in six hours..

ST07- i don't know that there's a consensus, but bill did mention that it will take time to work through the 'technical damage' in the sector-> so IMO, if 'job #1 is preserving capital,' then the prudent thing is to await a clear buy signal...(not to be miscontrued as ruling out day-trading to resistance at 850)...

re the dan rather story:

it was a case of the Lt. Col who was the source of documents being discredited by his secretary who simply stated she did not type these documents in question. it was further confirmed that the LT. Col's commanding officer had no such record of the documents, though the search for them occured well after the story broke, and ample time to clear the vaults.

no coincidence that bloggers were out in full force to suggest that the use of the source should have been verified and checked throughouly before being used, yet when reports cite "anonomous sources" or "intelligence experts" or "those close to the person in question" or even "white house insiders", no mention is ever made of the validity of these no-name sources that can never be verified and are rarely called into question.

glen greenwald runs a very interesting site for media criticism if you are interested in this kind of stuff, its almost disturbing the level of collusion between high ranking media members and the government who threaten to yank their press pass to the white house or deny them access to "inside sources" if they dont toe the line.

what we get is a carefully crafted, unverifiable blather.

I'm a Brit - lived in mainland Europe and now Australia - spent many years in US also. I was shocked at how news in the US is an entertainment channel - as long as these guys are chasing ratings they'll always go for the shock of any story regardless of fact. For me the big change occurred around 9/11 - no need to verify events just hype the claim and shout loudly. Its got worse ever since. I cringe every time I put CNBC, Fox on - pure propaganda. I worry for the state of the US.

[Bill Cara note:

While watching the Beijing Games on Canada's CBC (and also UK's BBC and US NBC), my wife and I were saying last evening that it was a joy to just watch the athletes perform as we viewed CBC and BBC. Turning to NBC, we just blinked and couldn't believe the nonsense. What a joke, and I truly am trying to be impartial when I look at this stuff and make comment.]

Well, it looks this morning as if the FED is still in firefighting mode. I wonder if they hadn't so conveniently allowed HB&B such freedoms by taking a more proactive approach and doing the right thing(s), what they would be doing right now...

Any regrets gals/guys?

UAUA- trying a little at 10.58...

..in fact, scenarios like today's are probably where CTA earns its cut, right...it may not be rocket science, but keeping the ship on top of the trading plans while navigating the cross-currents takes a lot of work and concentration...

Exited small position in CALM 2 days ago at $47.35 from a purchase at 32 and change.

Not sure I'll reload anytime soon. Looks like further weakness could take hold.

CP- just don't forget to sell...

Todd- thanks for the heads up on CALM..did it really bounce from a low of 40.91 in the first 3 minutes?

That was quick . . .stopped out of EWY for a small loss. Glad I had a leash on it!

CALM- notice the short float has dropped from >100% at one point to 83%...so the spike to 48+ was driven by about a significant closing of positions...

2nd

Some of those very early trades are VERY questionable, IMO. Maybe a stop got cleaned out, who knows ...

UAUA- out at 11.03...

let's see, a 2.6% rise in crude, a 0.03% rise in NGas...guess we really do have plenty of the latter...

RE: CALM

USDA Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry Outlook on August 19,2008 link:

http://tinyurl.com/6edecr

See page 17

good job 2nd

2nd - The moment I sell is the moment an historic event unfolds.

FNM just turned positive

FRE/FNM - Finding support?

2nd
may be good to play few oex put today
I have 6 from yesterday -oexun brought at 6.80

CP- as long as the historic event is not the fact that you finally get around to selling ;)

Drives ya' nuts, doesn't it? I'm still wondering how much of SKF is pschologically driven, it's up a whoppin' $3

I am reading Bill's morning comment. I do enjoy his writing and respect his opinion.

In his numerous posts, he has been talking about vested interest group is controlling the market and manipulating the market. It gave me the sense that they have so far been successful. Hence, Bill is predicting their next step and make a bet accordingly.

But I always ask myself "is there any chance the situation is out of their control?" How likely would that chance are?

As I see the rising Russia or other nations, I think the chance is becoming recognizable now. If that is the case, should i own the financial assets including equity and bonds?

I am concerned about my 401K. Hmm... it is difficult.

[Bill Cara note:

Some days it is very challenging to write anything, mostly because I see the extra hype being loaded on and the cross-currents those actions create. I am no different than any of you (or, to be fair, the broad media for that matter) in that my emotions get played. Sometimes it's just easier to trade the volatility without thinking, but going with your experience and what you see happening at the time.

At times no one group has any control over markets, and that's when we see the greatest volatility. But as volatility rises, the chance of a market sell-off also rises. Traders will walk away from markets if they get too unsettled. Even short-term traders like to have the comfort of a reasonable longer view.]

Moving on up---RIO DE JANEIRO

Yesterday's USA Today

By Michael Astor, Associated Press Writer

RIO DE JANEIRO — The weak dollar and a steadily strengthening Brazilian real have seen Rio climb from the 135th most expensive city in the world just a few years ago, to the 31st most expensive today — tied with Barcelona and Stockholm, according to the latest cost of living survey by the Mercer consulting firm.

I must admit, it is questionable whether sitting here watching this show is worthy of my time...

USO up 3%...

Blowout Preventer,

journalism: Hard to tell when such reporting is intentionally skewed and when it is just sloppy. Having worked in advertising for many years the ones that really bother me are the headlines which totally misstate the thrust of an article.

Ten times as many people read only the headline as the body copy.

GG is up 7.5%. Are people reading this as a floor or temporary bounce?

Blowout Preventer,

I often watch C-SPAN congressional committee hearings while having lunch. The network news reports often sound like a totally different hearing. This has been true regarding very important issues.

ALOHA !!

$99.2tril USD !!! Anyone know where this number came from? Here is a hint it came from the website BANK IMPLODE-O-METER, yet it has nothing to do with banks!

made a few sheckels on some pal

Dave Hyde - There are those that think in opposing directions, My belief is there is more miner downside to come. This is why I took a long position near the low and am struggling with the decision of whether or not to hold. At this moment I plan to hold until the bounce theory proves itself.

Crude oil up 119.47

kaimu - How did you know? The proposed NASA budget has not yet been announced!!!

if colin twigs is right and oil drops to $50 on a potential china recession, then shouldn't we be buying DUG or anything of that ilk?

[Bill Cara note:

Just received this mail from Reg Crowder:

Message from sender:
This is the latest take on oil from "The Semi-Official New York Times." ("Semi-Official" is my terminology.) The NYT story is about 30% true, in this case. Some time ago I ran across a KPMG study for the oil industry that told quite a different story. Mid-level energy company executives said the deteriorating quality of management means that the oil companies no longer know how to plan competently or control costs. Part of this is senior management "taking its eye off the ball." Another part of it is the fact that the best and brightest engineers, geologists, chemists and economists coming out of the universities don't want to have anything to do with oil companies associated with the United States and/or the United Kingdom. They see the US and UK out there dropping bombs on unarmed goat herders at every possible excuse and they don't respect that kind of behavior. I'm with them on that one. All the best. Reg Crowder reg.crowder@gmail.com Oh, Bill. I didn't post this to the community because your blog server considers me a stranger and it won't let me post.

BUSINESS | August 19, 2008
As Oil Giants Lose Influence, Supply Drops
By JAD MOUAWAD
Though eager to expand, the major Western oil companies are finding it harder than ever to find new prospects.]

"What do I need a dink airline for?"

"So the falcom's heard the falconer..."

"I've got a stockbroker who wants to run an airline. I'm up to my ass in more nuts that a fruitcake."

Thanks Chicken. I don't hold any positions in that space myself, but reading Bill's commentaries has encouraged me to study mining prices and understand the part they play in the overall market.

teamonfuego:

DUG just broke down out of a small consolidation area bordered by $40 and $35.50.

Next area of support is just under $33.

Not sure if I buy into the idea that the economy in China will be slowing dramatically. If weakness in the U.S. persists then it will likely find its way to China, but that will take some time.

The thought of $50 oil is nice, though. Maybe we'd see gas at the pump back under $2.50.

What's wrong with this picture?

BAC -2.2%
WM -.7%
WB -3%
FRE +3%

It's all convoluted!

vinod- sometimes just sitting back and waiting for the next set-up is the hardest thing to do...not forcing any trades today...(you know, i made more in 15 minutes on UAUA than i will at my day job today)...

NGas catching up, now up 2%...

Dave Hyde - I think you'll find gold is a very small fraction of the market and probably has negligible impact at best. At least that's what the numbers should indicate. I wouldn't know how to accurately relate gold in reference to it's primal attraction, but would expect this factor to be of greater magnitude; thus, my interest.

And if youd held on another half hour you could have called in sick, or better yet, quit:)

ToodinFL wrote: "If weakness in the U.S. persists then it will likely find its way to China, but that will take some time."

How much has the Shanghai lost already this year?
I think it has already found it's way to China.
The question is really how much farther it will go. So far the CAF has lost over 50% in 11 mos (from 72 to 34).

this here thingy's turning negative boys

Oil - as Bill mentioned the talking heads are really pumping oil and GS came out w/ an end of the year price of $150. While OPEC may cut production at their Sept. meeting to keep prices from falling further, but demand seems to be decreasing due the US, European, and North Asian slowdown. The shipping newsletters are reporting a surplus of tankers and a shortage of shipments which appears to confirm the drop in demand for oil. The oil shippers have reportedly once again "slowed the fleet". This means the ships are traveling slower to make the trip take longer, which in turn makes fewer ship available and keeps shipping rates up. When oil is high, shippers speed the fleet up to take advantage of the high rates.
On top of this, the US normally imports less oil in the 3rd qt when refineries do annual maintenance and change overs for winter fuel.
The Russia - Georgia conflict has been going on for 2 weeks without any upswing in oil.... Now the heads talk and GS start pumping and oil surges up..... Supply and demand - no way; Russia/Georgia conflict - maybe; funny business going on - for sure.

"They see the US and UK out there dropping bombs on unarmed goat herders at every possible excuse"

Not to mention the financial bombs the US and UK are also dropping...

Don't worry guys/gals, as long as I'm holding up the shorts on financials, everything'll be just fine...

Interesting article from IBD on water ETF

http://tinyurl.com/6npyuy

This is the opportunity 2nd. Inventories higher than expected by 30-40Bcf. NG is just riding on to the back of oil.

making a foray into NGas...

[Bill Cara note:

I believe the present weakness in the $USD and strength in commodities is the test I spoke of in the past two WIR's. This has set up a nice trade for the short-term, but in the medium term, I believe the $USD will strengthen and commodities weaken again to test their cycle bottoms. Longer-term, I believe the $USD, interest rates and commodity prices will move higher in tandem, which will be a break from the past.]

SiO2- LOL...OK, thanks for saving my a--...exited immediately...

Does anyone have an opionion on safety of money markets with exposure to Fannie and Freddie debt. Just curious. I am kind of stuck in my 401k at work with extremely limited options.

So, I'll have to wait to average down on CHK? Good, cause my dry powder ain't ready yet... Still contemplating that LNG transport business... And I see MXC is still going up...

For those of you who truly believe oil will drop to $50, Perry Como has a theme song for you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghJuiwq_DxU

TennesseeTrader - You didn't say anything about if you've experienced losses in your 401K, but if you haven't, then great, maybe you should keep doing what you're doing... otherwise, perhaps it's time to understand why/how those losses occurred. It's not acceptable to take large losses in any type of liquid environment, especially if your account is being professionally managed.

ToddinFL - thanks for the response. if what you say is true (base of DUG at just under $33), should i be gearing up to buy some?

"In any case, the T-Bill yield sank -5.4% on the day as there was more talk about a major US bank failure on the horizon. Lehman Bros appears to be the first one that may fail."

Hmmm. Did we not read the other day that Soros bought a ton of this stuff (LEH, not T-bill)? And that a few of the community followed him? Nothing is a slam-dunk it appears, including a "follow the (superstar) leader,"

Commendably I abstained, though I admit I was tempted a tiny bit when I read of his buy.

Chicken, I am not a novice trader, though I wouldn't classify myself as professional too since I do have an 8 to 5 job outside of the industry. I have primarily been in capital preservation mode in retirement accounts (meaning for the most part money markets). This has been the case since DOW 14000 or so. I just question the "safety" of some money markets funds and mine in particular has a lot of Fannie and Freddie exposure. I have very limited options (don't really want to be in a long bond fund because I don't see interest rates staying down). I have other accounts where I have traded some of the volatility in the recent markets. My question primarily is in regards to retirement money... especially the money where my hands are tied as to possible options.

If oil is coming down again, HOD.to is at a very good price too.

teamonfuego

Only you can make that call. Everyone here has a different time perspective and risk tolerance.

what are your thoughts on APWR?

I'm fascinated by the price action of gold lately, wonder how high it might bounce....

ALOHA !!

$99.2tril USD is the current unfunded liability of Social Security and Medicare. This figure is not from some tin foil hat like the former GAO head-US Comptroller General David Walker, but instead this is from one of the US Federal Reserve governors out of Dallas, TX, Richard Fisher.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/5ceh9b

Last year David Walker was using a number of $56trilUSD, now the US FED says its at $99.2tril USD, nearly double. Could the liability grown so rapidly? I believe it has due to the passage of the Medicare Drug benefit that was rushed through the US Congress by BIG PHARMA companies.

What Fisher says about this liability is "off the record" and on his "own time" as he admits in the article, which is actually a transcript of one of his speeches back in May this year.

This feeds into my macro view of inflation, since Mr. Fisher eloquently poses solutions, which one is to just simply terminate benefits and renege on promises that were made and deducted from employee salaries for fifty years now. Would the US Congress just renege? It would set a very dangerous precedent for current workers in the system and it would cause a "geriatric riot" at the same time that would unite both the older and younger generations in a quest to rid the World of both political parties, Rep and Dem! So ... NO the spineless creatures that now inhabit the US Congress would not dare go there if they valued their life and the life of their families as well as their thirst for power and greed! The alternative to reneging most likely to occur is what has been happening ever since I have been alive which is to SPEND AND PRINT and push that liability onto future generations and other politicians. Add that into the already established path of least resistance to save the US Financial system by nationalizing banks and FRE/FNM! Add that to the COLD WAR now brewing and the added cost to militarize global solutions. Anyone of those solutions to "monetary problems" is highly inflationary on its own, but add them together and the insanity is crystal clear. Can the US government tax our way out of these predicaments? The answer is a loud NO! Tax revenues are already falling. By Mr. Fisher's own data American taxpayers would have to assume an "immediate"(right NOW)tax increase across the board of close to 70%! Could you afford another added 70% taxes? Who could since we are all paying an across the board tax rate of 54.4%(includes all taxes)right now! Now Mr. Fisher sounds very similar to Mr. Walker(who quit)in his dire warnings ... None of these guys are official "tin-hatters", quite the opposite!

One final question ... CAN ANYONE REALLY ACCURATELY TOTAL AMERICA'S LIABILITIES? How can that be done since our own government keeps two sets of books and God only knows what is and what is not reported on either sets of books!

This brings me back to another thesis of mine, which is that the current "science" of economics as taught in America's Ivy League colleges seems woefully inadequate when compared to other "real" sciences like physics and biology! Winston Churchill once said of Sir Manyard Keynes(Father of Fiat economics) ... "If you put two economists in a room, you get two opinions, unless one of them is Lord Keynes, in which case you get three opinions." To me that quote sums up the "science" of economics ... opinions and opinions are great until a better one comes along!

"Dave Hyde - There are those that think in opposing directions, My belief is there is more miner downside to come. This is why I took a long position near the low and am struggling with the decision of whether or not to hold. At this moment I plan to hold until the bounce theory proves itself." ...Chicken

Struggling with the decision is right! My gold/silver positions purchased on Friday and Monday are up 12 1/2% with GG leading the way.

My long since departed mother and uncle, both of whom actually got me interested in this game as we'd sit around the tube watching Louis Ruykhauser on Friday nights, would both often say "Don't get greedy!".
Their words are echoing in me now and that's what makes the decision to hang in there or take the money and run so difficult. (and exciting)
I'm thinking I'll split the difference and at least give it one more day.

What exactly is the "bounce theory"?

LOL! After reading today's report, discourse and now Bill's note, I'll be planning my escape from PM's and Jr's before EOD. Bought SKF AH last night when it dropped back to 129 and change, rode it overnight until this AM when it went to 135 and kissed it goodbye. Maybe will try again if it comes back to me. Too whacky to hold anything other than longs bought at rock bottom w/divs. About 90% cash. PM's were a nice trade though.

Walter Cronkite was very reliable, very good and I miss Dan Rather also. I do like Chris Matthews and David Gregory (kinda like the new Sam Donaldson) and some others. But, most of cable news is more like tabloid coverage, hard to watch at times.

TT - I'd stay away from anything involving FRE/FNM, unless you're willing to risk everything for gigantic gain. If there's no possibility for gigantic gain, then why risk anything on FRE/FNM?

re EWZ.

none of the top 10 stocks in the ETF are in accumulation/buy mode

added to RSX position

Bounce theory - I have yet to find Bill wrong; my interpretation of his observation is that commodities are experiencing a bounce and will be experiencing more downside. I'm assuming this includes POG.

[Bill Cara note:

Thank you. You have it right. Nobody knows how big a bounce will be because they cannot know in advance how strong the forces will be. This reaction is very strong because there is a lot of fight in the OIL and GOLD Bulls, but this current situation is mostly hot money, meaning that it is playing the short cycle reversal only and will play the counter-reversal the same way. After a bearish move, these reaction moves are typical of base building.]

CP, my 401k options are basically to be in stocks, bonds, or a "government money market" which is loaded with fannie and freddie debt obligations. I have no clue as to how senior or subordinate the tranches for this debt are. People don't invest in money markets for big gain. I sure as heck don't want to load up on stocks either (not yet), and after the flight to safety has subsided I expect yields to rise and hence don't want to be in govenment bond funds either.

2nd - quick question regarding your choice of UAUA as the airline/oil trading vehicle.

Is your choice based on price action (e.g. volatility, correlation to oil, ATR, etc) or the fundamental weakness of UAUA or greater knowledge of UAL vs other airlines, a gut feeling about the company or something entirely different?

tia!

Russia is the wildcard in the price of commodities. If a world war breaks out, do you think it might be bullish for commodities?

I'd also like to ask our own Russian Bear Vadym (ok, he's a bull and a bear but you know what I mean)what he makes of Russia's intentions vis a vis their former sattelites in Eastern Europe.

What are the Russians doing, and why are they doing it?

back into UAUA at 11.63...

Telestar3d re: AEM puts

In view of Bill’s comments,

“But I do believe with most of the HB&B currency analysts that there has been a sea change in the $USD, which is now bullish longer-term, and that will push oil and gold and other commodities lower in price long-term.”

Bought to cover into today’s strength, taking the 25% profit on AEMUK puts sold awhile back. Out at 2.40.

It was an interesting ride and there will be other opportunities with this one, but it’s sort of like the old expression “when the facts change, I change.” HB&B environment “sea change” is the clue IMO.

TT - If you are looking for a flight to safety, then perhaps bonds are the place to be, as expectations for the DOW look dire for a good period of time (perhaps through Y/E at least?). Commodities are poised for an upward trek, following a low for oil in the $80 range. Of course, you will continue to monitor and make changes accordingly. If you cannot make changes, then a long term commodities approach would be my choice. As world economies recover, commodities demand will also recover. IMO commodities prices will continue regulating world growth.

Housing used to be a very safe investment, and will be again someday after HB&B are done with their shenanigans.

TT - Also, I question the concept behind the 401K in terms of taxation. For now, the 401K seems to offer tax advantages, but will those advantages be upheld into the future just as social security has been upheld? Are the actual taxes paid likely to go up, down, or sideways, based on what we know today? Would it not be better to liquidate and pay the taxes now then pay a higher rate in the future?

teamonfuego

Remember DUG shorts oil and oil service companies not oil it self

DUG
twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index
Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM 25.07229819
Chevron Corp. CVX 10.85453138
ConocoPhillips COP 7.148783241
Schlumberger Ltd. SLB 6.348574586
Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY 3.979433363
Devon Energy Corp. DVN 2.569932564
Transocean Inc. RIG 2.416943752
Apache Corp. APA 2.414883205
Halliburton Co. HAL 2.287084362
Hess Corp. HES 1.919688288
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. APC

shark,

I don't want to start or get involved into long-winded political discussion so I will express my opinion but refrain from any follow-up. Hope you will understand.

IMO, Russia had a lot to gain and nothing to lose, at least short term, from what it did. I'll list it in no particular order.

1. Restoring its status if not global then regional power.
2. Sending a strong message to other west-oriented countries/govts (especially Ukraine and Baltic countries) in Russia's former sphere of influence: being too cozy with the West and dismissing Russia can be of grave consequences.
3. Establishing control over major pipelines from Caspian region through Georgia/Turkey to Europem, strengthening Russian position in energy supplies.
4. Supporting (or trying to) price of oil by another world order's turbulence (as a major oil supplier, reason is self-explanatory)
5. Redeeming at least some of humiliation experienced during period of disarray; playing on national pride thus strengthening position of current administration.
6. Trying to split NATO using Russian newly found and carefully crafted influence over Europian countries with all the natural gas supplies.
7. Further weakening USA image by demonstarting that it cannot intervene when one of its close allies is invaded.
8. Finally, picking the moment for the conflict with enviable precision. USA is bogged down in Iraq and Afghan, has on its hands destabilizing Pakistan and increasing tensions with Iran (where USA needs Russian cooperation to keep situation from extreme deterioration), financial troubles take a lot of attention too... meanwhile Russia is much more orderly and stronger than it was 5 years ago.

There is more, I am sure, to the grand plan, including future foray in Arctic, more sbare-rattling in Europe... but I'll stop on it and return to trading topics :)

To follow up on what QT said re: DUG.

Just look at $DJUSEN. DUG is the inverse of that index.

shark - This Russia issue will continue to escalate as long as the US pursues "aggression against Russia" like inviting beakaways into NATO and the European missile defense program. The wildcard in my mind is Russias position within NATO. If Russia were forced out of NATO, that might be considered an indicator for transition to a hot war.

Vadym Graifer

All great points. Putin has and still is in the process of restoring Russia to her former glory days. Also because of her strong ties in the Middle East, she will emerge as a might force very soon. And all this power will be in the hands of one man, that former KGB man [Putin]!

Chickenpookie: Since no one else has responded, I will break the news. Russia is not a member of NATO; NATO is an organization formed (in part) for the purpose of containing Russian expansion.

"The first NATO Secretary General Lord Ismay, famously stated the organization's goal was 'to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down'."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO

Oil up $5.22 to $120.78

For those interested in global water issue, August 2008 Scientific American has interesting article on how to avert crisis. You can read the mag article or access via

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=facing-the-freshwater-crisis

Sorry, having trouble accessing tiny url from laptop at away location).

Decided to take profit on the DBA shares I purchased at $35.80 a few days ago. Also, sold a little more of my SWC at $7.90 (I bought these shares at $7.30 on the way down).

Not sure whether to add to my UAUA position or just keep it as it is and consider it a hedge on the rising USD.

The most alarming thing about the Russia/Georgia conflict is that we have "dead or alive" "bring em on" Stupid George answering that 3a.m. phone call!

Well, I decided to increase my small UAUA position by 50% at $11.52, just to take at least some advantage of today's drop. The local fears about the oil supply seem to be just a bump in the global unwinding of the long oil trade (because of the higher dollar, falling demand, etc.)

Bank borrowing from ECB is out of control.

The European Central Bank has issued the clearest warning to date that it cannot serve as a perpetual crutch for lenders caught off-guard by the severity of the credit crunch.
Not Wellink, the Dutch central bank chief and a major figure on the ECB council, said that banks were becoming addicted to the liquidity window in Frankfurt and were putting the authorities in an invidious position.

"There is a limit how long you can do this. There is a point where you take over the market," he told Het Finacieele Dagblad, the Dutch financial daily.
If we see banks becoming very dependent on central banks, then we must push them to tap other sources of funding," he said.
http://tinyurl.com/5a4msh

FYI

Here is a neat link for date calculators.

http://tinyurl.com/647m78

I use this one to help me prevent future "wash sales".

http://tinyurl.com/6rn4u

Well the new spin talk is to nationalize freddie and fannie and put Hank Paulson in the drivers seat. What kind of corrupt country do I live in?
Somewhere between 5 and 6 trillion in supposed assets, and talking heads are pounding the drums for an X goldman ceo to take full control until he paulson can sell off the assets to the private sector!
I.E. family and friends...........
Now if paulson can run the nations treasury to an all time deficit that will be in the red for the next 2 generations, why put this X goldman ceo in direct control of a nationalized fannie and freddie until he can sell it off to family and friends?
There should be laws that protect the working people in what used to be America not just these corrupt banker/politicians!!!!!

reenzo- no particular reason to be playing UAUA...i started with it last summer simply b/c i noticed the volatility with UAUA was higher than with the others...

i think i see robert duvall in a cowboy hat playing ride of the valkyries...

Freedom57 - From NATO website nato.int:

Q: What is Russia’s status – is it a partner country?

A: Yes. NATO and Russia made a reciprocal commitment to work together to build a stable, secure and undivided continent on the basis of partnership and common interest in 1997.

This commitment was strengthened in May 2002, with the establishment of the NATO-Russia Council, which brings together the 26 NATO Allies and Russia to identify and pursue opportunities for joint action at 27 as equal partners.

For more information, please see: NATO-Russia relations

Thanks 2nd, I suspected that might be the case.... and looking at the five of them today I can see the point (+8% move vs 5-6% on the others)

re:RSX - now trading above the open AND the previous close

KRY up on 3X volume.

Full disclosure - long at too high a price

ALOHA !!

I have been studying foreign held US assets as disclosed by the US Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank of New York here at this link.

Link: http://www.treas.gov/tic/shl2007r.pdf

Maybe Bill can explain this. In the report there are "Caribbean banking centers" mentioned and then there is "Cayman Islands" mentioned. What's the difference? In the Report the "Caribbean banking centers" are defined as Bahamas, Bermuda, Panama, British Virgin islands and also Cayman Islands. Why is the Cayman Islands included under two different "Caribbean" banking entities?

I bring this up because the CAYMAN ISLANDS has a crap load of ABS with mortgage ties. All total nearly $240billion USD worth! I have to ask is the Cayman Islands and Caribbean banking centers code for major global banks with offshore hedge funds? Is MER and LEH and the rest hiding crap offshore? Aren't there many major US Banks and Foreign Banks represented in the Caribbean as well as major hedge funds?

Take a look at this Report and you will be astonished at the sizable ABS holdings that have yet to have any disclosure at all. You will also be stunned that foreigners hold over $9trilUSD of debt and equities. Look where China stands. Lots of US Debt but hardly any US corporate debt long term or short term. That doesn't say much for their trust in US corporations.

Remember this Report is for 2007, reported in April 2008, so it will not be totally up to date. As usual more "rear-view mirror" economic reporting! Is this how we Americans are forced to plan for our futures ... deciphering old data ... "guessing"?

[Bill Cara note:

kaimu, this is a 209 page report. I skimmed the first 50 pages and only saw Cayman identified as a country in a list of countries or as part of the Caribbean region when regions were identified. Clearly, Cayman is part of the Caribbean. Bermuda is not, and technically neither is Bahamas or Turks & Caicos, but these are usually lumped into Caribbean regional reports... Maybe with the overwhelming extent of US asset-backed paper held in Cayman (or is that Texas-south) DC has its eyes on it? I don't know who it is, but I suspect that mind-and-management is really in CT or TX, and that the US taxpayer is funding the operations... So, pls give me a page # and I'll look again.]

Buy 100 Shares of SKF
Details Filled at $130.4995

KRY +30%

bsi87,

re EWZ.....what analysis do you use to determine buy/accumulation mode?

Kaimu:

I'm not sure China's position is a strike against their perception of corporate debt. There's probably a "wink-wink" situation between governments.

re: EWZ.

I use Bill's/Korvus Triple RSI screener.

[Bill Cara note:

Please use TinyURL for very long url's. I don't have time to do it for you. Thanks.]

Chickenpookie: I see your point. While Russia is not a full member of NATO, dissolving the NATO-Russian Council would definitely be a step backward in terms of co-operation.

re: EWZ/Chinese stocks.

I loaded all the Chinese ADR's I could find in the RSI and found that it appears the Chinese mkt is bottoming.

http://tinyurl.com/48zyne

[Bill Cara note:

Please use TinyURL for very long url's. Thanks.

btw, I don't see the China equity market bottoming on the basis of these M-W-D RSI values, although it might be the case.]

Sell 100 Shares of SKF
Details Filled at $131.70
got money for tomorrow's lunch

some lunch!

FattyArbuckle
nothing was working
so, took a chance with skf
sold OEX put breaking even

Bill, do you know if the computers are able to analyze real time data of retail participants entering and exiting stocks? I would think they do, and use that information to shear the sheep so to speak, whereupon, if so, this is a breach of privacy is it not?

We see stocks move up and down 10% daily, for no real reason, and we see a machine set up to always try to TAKE from people and use infor?mation to their advantage--why invest in that vehicle

[Bill Cara note:

Broker-dealers execute your orders and have the data and analyze it. Yes. Do they use it to their advantage? Yes. Is doing so an invasion of our privacy? Of course it is, but tell it to the Supreme Court and you'll find that they are sleeping in the same bed as HB&B. This is why I constantly advance the notion to regulators that principals like broker-dealers should be required to hive off their pure brokerage (agency) divisions, and those agents should be required to sign contracts with the client that they are not trading against the order flow. I have been saying this for 25 years, and nobody wants to listen. In no other facet of society would your agent and your advisor too be permitted to use important information against you, to your detriment and to their benefit. It's why there is a code of ethics with lawyers, doctors, priests, and so forth. There is no code with HB&B; in fact the rules have been set up to help them screw the client, and they do. There is no counter-argument to this; it's a fact. So, we deal with it the only way we can. In some cases, we have multiple agent brokers and we'll buy something with one and sell with another, and back and forth, to confuse them. We'll maintain a separate depository for our securities and make the broker settle purchases with a Deliver Against Payment, etc. The small account cannot afford to do this, and so they especially get taken advantage of.]

bsi87

Please use the "Tiny URL" system when posting long URL links as they cause problems, ie everyone else has to scroll sideways back and forth to read this blog.

Here's a link to instructions for Tiny URL and a few other tips.
http://tinyurl.com/29fv5t

thanks
Quasi

Out of CDE (Coeur dAlene Mines) today at $1.96 (in yesterday at $1.82).

So 2ndave/chickenpookie, wouldn't you go long UAUA here for 5-20 days if you believe oil/gold will pullback substantially?

ALOHA !!

The latest on the HOUSING AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT OF 2008, by Catherine Austin Fitts(ex HUD administrator under Bush Daddy) ...

I love these names and how they all sound so patriotic and altruistic, when in fact they are full of pork and fraud that US TAXPAYERS and their kids and grandkids eventually have to pay for!

BEWARE OF BIG GOVERNMENT !!!

READ ON:
Part IV – The Profits of Playing Ball

[jgorlick] The housing bill brings up a number of important questions about the risks and rewards that result from government subsidy and bailouts.

One recent market commentator pointed out that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executives were allowed to keep the big bonuses they made engineering the housing bubble and bankrupting the companies.

One of the examples given was Jamie Gorelick, (1, 2) who joined Fannie Mae as vice chairman from 1997 to 2003 after engineering the move to private for-profit prisons as deputy attorney general in the Clinton Administration. Gorelick's name received national attention as a member of the 9-11 Commission and close advisor to Hillary Clinton.

Gorelick got Fannie Mae compensation and bonus payments of $26 million, which she gets to keep.

However, the bill stipulates that Americans at risk of foreclosure who get a mortgage workout must share future equity capital gains with the government.

Part V – Where Is the Collateral?

[mortgage] Any government official asked to come up with a workout plan for troubled financial institutions, large portfolios of financial assets and liabilities, and/or places that are financially challenged first must consider all the constituencies involved. No matter what his or her goals, an official must choose from among the options available. Before we judge these individuals harshly, we must consider what we would do if we stood in the same shoes.

The challenge that U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson faces when working out the problems with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac is that a significant number of mortgages that serve as collateral for U.S. mortgage-backed securities markets are not real. They do not exist.

The problem is not that the people who bought the house and borrowed the money cannot afford to pay it back or that the house they bought has dropped in value. If these were the problems, we would not be watching the debt the U.S. government is responsible for increase by $5 trillion dollars. We would not be watching the National Bank of Australia announce a 50% loss rate on their mortgage-backed securities.

When my company served as lead financial adviser to the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), we surveyed industry loss rates to compare them to FHA's high rate of 35%. The highest we found in the industry was 25%, and this was at the end of the last housing bubble bust, when loss rates would be expected to be high. As we due diligenced the FHA nonperforming and foreclosed portfolios, trying to understand a 35% loss rate, we started to find symptoms of fraudulent collateral practices. Indeed, we found portfolios with 50% loss rates, and the losses had nothing to do with income levels or housing prices.

Here is a story that I have told many times before:

"In 1994, after the first FHA/HUD financial audit was published, a mortgage banker came to see me. He was a serious engineering type who clearly worked hard and had mastered the details of his business. He was distressed, he said. For decades he had been keeping a tally of total outstanding FHA/HUD mortgage insurance credit. He had brought printouts of his database for me. It turned out that the government’s published financial statements showed the amount outstanding was substantially less than the actual amount outstanding. He was sure. I assumed that the guy was crazy. If what he said were true, then the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve would have to be complicit in significant fraud, including securities fraud."

See: The Myth of the Rule Of Law. See also: (1) (2) (3) (4)

[mort2] After I began researching HUD fraud in the late 1990s, I would be contacted by people with experience with HUD fraud. They insisted that the same home was being used to create ten or more mortgages that were placed into different pools. They alleged that Chase as the lead HUD servicer and the other big banks were implementing such systems. This was why we would see the same house default two, three, or four times in a year, they claimed. FHA mortgages had to be churned through multiple defaults to generate the cash to keep all these fraudulent pools afloat. This, they insisted, was all going to finance various secret government operations and private agendas.

This issue of collateral fraud was repeated in other markets. As I started to learn more about precious metals and the commodities markets, I would hear story after story about precious metals arrangements in which what investors really had was a bank credit—there was no bullion behind the arrangement.

I have come to believe that the allegations of mortgage collateral fraud are true—not just for FHA and Ginnie Mae at HUD but across the board throughout the mortgage markets as well.

What this means is that Freddie Mac's and Fannie Mae's obligations must be converted to what is essentially government debt. Such conversion means that investors simply don't care if the mortgages have a lien on anything real or not (at least for the time being). Otherwise, there would need to be a process by which all the defaulted mortgages can be sorted through to determine which of the mortgages are legitimate and which are not.

Creating and managing such a process would indeed crash the global financial system. It is hard for a multi-trillion-dollar financial system to maintain liquidity when contracts and laws are meaningless.

The challenge for Hank Paulson is that by increasing the national debt by $5 trillion—whether collateralized by real estate or by phony paper—he can delay the day of reckoning, but he cannot cancel it.

Only one thing can cancel the day of reckoning, and that is a return to productivity—a reengineering of resources in households and communities; a revitalization of culture, education, and markets; a rebuilding of infrastructure; an integration of new technology and new process; and a shift away from warfare, centralization, financial fraud, and organized crime and those who lead and promote it.

Hank Paulson's hands may be tied, but ours are not. Ultimately, you and I have the power to change this. So . . . who is your banker? Who is your farmer? Where is your money? END

This is part of the article. Go to her website to read the rest.

Link: http://www.solari.com/blog/?p=1407

[Bill Cara note:

I think Miss Fitts (pun intended) does a superb job of using her experience and the weight of her prior positions to advance arguments to the public that the public ought to listen to. Thank you for pointing it out.]

watermelon - You forgot to mention George's cowboy hat... I also occasionally wore one between the ages of four and seven.

Vadym,

I wanted an in-depth take on the Russia situation, and as always, you didn't disappoint!
Great stuff.

Watermelon:
Not to worry - he has two things by the phone
1. RUSSIA BAD/GEORGIA GOOD
2. ESPN The Magazine pics Georgia number 1

In God We Trust

Day Trading

take a look at the 10 day chart of some of the names that get thrown around here (IBN, TTM, SU, GG, UAUA, SKF), and i see no reason to be doing anything but..

i don't see how buy-and-holders can have any confidence in a trend...

QT - yeah, i know about DUG being the inverse of the oil services index, but i haven't found anything yet that is the inverse of the price action of USO. any ideas?

to follow up, here is a chart of DUG vs USO....while they aren't trading on the same things, the inverse relationship is pretty evident:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1y&s=USO&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=dug

"i haven't found anything yet that is the inverse of the price action of USO. any ideas?"

try UAUA....

ST07- yes...

teamonfuego:
If you can trade Canadian stocks, Horizons has ETFs that fit a lot of different strategies (http://www.hbpetfs.com/)
(H is for Horizon, O for oil, U for up)
HOU.to - 2X crude oil up
HOD.to - 2X crude oil down
HNU.to - 2X nat gas up
HND.to - 2X nat gas dn
HEU.to - 2X energy stocks up
HED.to - 2X energy stocks dn
HBU.to - 2X bullion up
HBD.to - 2X bullion dn
HGU.to - 2X gold miners up
HGD.to - 2X gold miners dn
HMU.to - 2X global mining up
HMU.to - 2X global mining dn

On China Equity,

Shanghai rallied near 7% yesterday and retrace a bit on the speculation of a "stimulus" package. From what I know about "Communist" China, if a stimulus package is true, it'll be first in its history. They were know to "take away", not "give". I thought just last year, Chinese Government did all kinds of things to slow growth and to control inflation. The next course of action, would be do nothing before contemplating a "stimulus package". Just my 2-cent.

2nd,
Never heard of Pat Matheny until your remark the other night. Have been getting an education since. Many Thanks for the intro into his amazing world!

[Bill Cara note:

Pat Metheny was one of my favorite musicians in the mid-90's.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Metheny ]

"i haven't found anything yet that is the inverse of the price action of USO. any ideas?"

What about DTO?

>>>2nd ave said "i don't see how buy-and-holders can have any confidence in a trend..."

Yeah exactly. I do feel that oil should be going down here over the next few weeks however pulling the trigger on DUG or UAUA looking for a 20% move does not seem all that enticing at the moment, though I suppose that could change within several days, I suppose.

teamonfuego

"but i haven't found anything yet that is the inverse of the price action of USO. any ideas?"

How about "DOY" [oil down] UOY [oil up].

Deep Thought: Oil.

Well, it seems the USSA USSR tensions are adding to that. There may also be a question as to the direction of Chinese demand now that the Olympics are winding down. What will things returning to normal in China do. Any opinions on these themes affect on the price of oil?

On Metheny: I remember when Jaco Pastorius was alive. He lived in the Boston area for awhile (think he attended Berklee) Loved Metheny, but Pastorius was phenomenal. I think he bought the farm out back of a club in Florida.

Any fans of Ottmar Liebert out there. He's definitely worth a listen.

And some of us thought only the negative wasn't on the balance sheet!

National City Holds Hidden $1 Billion Stake in Visa (Update2)

By Linda Shen
Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- National City Corp., the Ohio bank whose market value fell 70 percent this year on investor concern that capital may run short, has a $1 billion stake in Visa Inc. that doesn't get counted on its balance sheet.

http://tinyurl.com/6r7zaz

Can anyone help. Was trying to get news on a few Chinese stocks. One being CMGHF. This is an agriculture ctock that deals primarily with organic stock.
Thanks

"Higher oil prices will be taken as a distinct negative by traders, but this too could be part of a plan by certain vested interests to force the Administration to save Fannie and Freddie."

O.K Bill, I give up. Could you give me a scenario?

[Bill Cara note:

Lower interest rates in the US at this point would serve those shareholders and bondholders hoping to save Fannie, Freddie, Lehman and other weak financial companies. But those financial companies will be "saved" for others who are standing by ready to pounce. By goosing the oil price, and crashing the $USD by -1.1% today, soon before Bernanke is going to speak at the Fed's annual symposium at Jackson Hole Wyoming, it puts the Fed into a position where the prospect of lower rates must be ruled out. In fact, the language being used by the media at this point is that the Fed will wait until post-election to start raising rates from 2% to 3% through 2009. I believe these stories have been carefully crafted. In the absence of lower rates, I believe Fannie, Freddie and Lehman are toast and the Fed and the Treasury Secretary will be required to save them like they "saved" Bear Stearns. In other words, this is feeding time for other banks and friends of Paulson, and at the end of the day the taxpayer once again will assume all the liabilities while the new owners will take all the assets. I believe that people like Bernanke, Geithner, Dimon and Paulson and the people pulling their strings know how this is being played out and are facilitating it. The scripts are being written and practiced today for public consumption. We are witnessing the biggest transfer of wealth in the history of the world.]

Nemo,

As far as the Olympics wind down etc... My thoughts are that so far I have hardly heard anyone speak about the World Expo in Shanghai in 2010 and that runs for 6 months. They are tearing up some of central Shanghai and pouring a lot of effort into the mass transit efforts among other efforts. The effort reflects the amount of visitors they expect - 70 million over six months - May to October 2010. Between this effort and the re-construction from the earthquake, I see little to slow down infrastructure projects not to mention the other country wide efforts that are ongoing. The broader economy may be slowing, but year over year growth is not going away. Though, as you can tell prices can get knocked down hard despite yoy growth if these rates are decelerating.

My guess is that their efforts will continue and they have more than ample reserves to keep the growth between 6-9% which I think is where they want it. All bets are off should food inflation spike unexpectedly way too high.

re:FXI/FXP

I've also been running RSI against DJIA stocks and other indices. Seems to hold up pretty well - lotta stocks in distribution/sell mode, the index isn't going to move much to upside. Note SSEC gave a buy alert (use ^ssec in Triple RSI screen). Also compare the stock/index against risk free alternates.

We'll know in the fullness of time.

Was going to chip in last night on the music comments but it was verry late, but as its come up again....
re..."one act you had to experience live..."
SRV and brother Jimmy open air outside Chicago
Carlos Santana at Summerfest
Buddy Guy at Legends
Eric Johnson at Alpine Valley
Joe Satrani and Stu Hamm
oh yeah,
Iron Butterfly at Ravinna
now its Otmar Leibert, Brad Prevedoros and Robbie Robbertson and the Red Road Ensemble
Peace from North Puget Sound, going to Rainier for the weekend, leaving the island for a little while

Placing a buy limit order on UAUA at $10.50. If purchased, this would bring UAUA to 5% of my portfolio.

ALOHA!!

See this movie ... its out now!

I.O.U.S.A.

See trailer here: http://tinyurl.com/5no5mv

I have been speaking about David Walker, ex-GAO head who quit, and his message. This movie takes his message to much higher levels and includes many other past and present ICONS of business ... Well worth a look if it is playing near you!

The movie opened at 8PM on August 22nd in New York City in a number of Manhattan theaters and all theaters were sold out! Now that's a good sign ...

Thank you, Bill. Oh, and folks, I'm always thanking Bill, but I much appreciate the input and responses from those who partake here. So, an unconsciously negligently belated THANK YOU.

ST07:

I didn't think there would be a major slowdown in China, but over the last couple of months the authorities have put the breaks on energy usage to clean up the air. I'm curious as to the impact that dynamic has had on the recent lull in oil prices.

Of course, if you read Bill's comment, the oil prices have more to do with FNM FRE and LEH than consumption-I defer to the Grand Poobah!

Sir Bill, So do you think Lehman get's sacrificed for the R&P of FNM FRE. I remember Paulson's comment about institutions being allowed to fail. Since the latter are semi-governmental (not), you can wrap the flag around those. You let LEH fail, it's jut those rapacious Wall Streeters.

Kaimu: IOUSA

I take your comment on the sell out of tickets to be a good sign that people are realizing or identifying with what has been happening to us.

I hope you are right, but for years I have written to everyone I could think of protesting their actions without any result. Even many of my closest friends take me for some kind of a nut.

When my long term manufacturing clients began sending operations to cheaper labor and were talking the "new economy," "global economy," "service economy," " information economy," I told them they were killing the future for short term gains.

Until our city, county and state became part of the worst area to find a job, my congressman was bragging about our increase in exports. Sure, we were exporting to Mexico, China and South Africa what we used to send to a one hundred mile radius — G.E., Avery Dennison, General Motors Elecro-Motive Div. — all had gone thousands of miles away.

Today's paper announced our city leads the state... in job losses!

Wake me when the revolution starts. I've seen this movie in real time.