Good morning

Fortune smiled upon stock markets last week, with the S&P 500 Index scoring its first back-to-back weekly gain since April as the US dollar rallied strongly and oil and commodities plummeted. The S&P 500’s gain since the low of July 15 has been 6.7%, with the Financial SPDR up by 27.8%.

I believe there is still no confirmation that stock markets have bottomed and maintain that the convalescence period will be an extended affair. From a short-term perspective, however, I would give the upside the benefit of the doubt unless the lows established on 1) July 28 and 2) July 15 are broken.

Read more about this in my weekly "Words from the Wise" review: http://tinyurl.com/57cbw3

That's the way it looks from Cape Town.

Riddle of the burst bubble

"We're now in the midst of another one of these precarious periods. I believe global markets - equities, debt, currencies, and commodities - are all in some stage of dislocation (perhaps not emerging debt, at least yet). Trading conditions across the spectrum of markets are as chaotic as I've ever witnessed, a dislocation chiefly related to the now forced unwinds of speculative positions. Recent extreme global market volatility is part and parcel to the heightened monetary disorder I have been addressing for months now. The massive global pool of speculative finance has run amuck. The bulls will celebrate the rally, yet markets this unstable are prone to "melt-ups" that lead to breakdowns".

http://tinyurl.com/5rujyk

[Bill Cara note:

This is a good article by Doug Noland, chief strategist at David W. Tice & Associate, LLC, investment adviser to the Prudent Bear mutual funds. You can find the same article at their website. I think Tice/Noland are pretty good.]

taking metals down to start the day...

Good Morning.

There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

----------------------------------------------------

Great WIR, Bill. Thank you. Have a great day everyone.

China is set to overtake the US next year as the world’s largest producer of manufactured goods, four years earlier than expected, as a result of the rapidly weakening US economy.

The great leap is revealed in forecasts for the Financial Times by Global Insight, a US economics consultancy. According to the estimates, next year China will account for 17 per cent of manufacturing value-added output of $11,783bn and the US will make 16 per cent.

http://tinyurl.com/592taf

(1) long gold/short financials-> (2) short gold/long financials-> (3) long gold/short financials-> (4) long gold/short bonds...

anyone think we're nearing the end of (2), headed for a short (3), and ultimately to (4)? just throwing it out..

Bill,

Whatever the precise mechanism, there's no denying the correlation. An ivy education WILL improve your hiring prospects, whatever you are hoping to do and wherever you hope to do it. It's just one of those sociological facts of life that's undeniable. Hiring someone from Dartmouth is bot a "safer", more defensible hire as well as being a more enticing one than hiring someone who went to state. It just is what it is.

shark- agree...for the same reason, marrying someone from the same socio-economic/cultural/geographic/educational background has higher odds of success...

I think there has to be at least a bounce back to test the 200 day averages like Bill says. If those prove to be resistance then (3) could be short-lived.

I do see 4 coming into play as soon as another big financial fails and we bail them out. Since many traders seem to view this rally as "the worst is behind us" that shock will be enough to crush confidence in our dollar. JMO

Rob.

nice reversal in metals after shaking out holders with pre-market jitters...but fake-outs both ways straight ahead...sometimes it feels like your starting Mr. Toad's ride at Disneyland...

This is options expirations week. Max Pain theory tells us that most of the call or put options will expire worthless. With the big up move on Friday by the stock markets we will have a great chance to see this theory proven or not as current prices are significantly higher than what the max pain numbers.

Current max pain numbers, as well as the current price, and the price differential:

DIA: 114 (current: 116.95, +2.6%)
SPY: 128 (current: 129.37, +1.1%)
XLF: 21 (current: 21.94, +4.4%)
QQQQ: 45 (current: 47.32, +5.1%)

Using DIA as an example, there are currently 378,084 open contracts:

In the money: 143,696
Out of the money: 234,388
Current profit by options holders: $54.2M

If Max Pain hold, DIA will drop to 114, and these numbers will be as follows:

In the money: 120,469
Out of the money: 257,615
Profit by options holders: $43.8M

This means that under Max Pain holders of in the money options make less money, and the writers of the options make the most money.

If Max Pain theory holds, the writers of the options will stand to keep 257,615 contracts, versus 234,388 if the current price stands. That is a a difference of 23,227 contracts.

Also interesting to note, that if these contracts were sold at say an average of $3 each, the writers stand to rake in $77.3M of profits, while the buyers will make only $7.6M. This clearly shows that it pays to write options and not buy them. Other scenarios at http://tinyurl.com/5gdw6u

I will keep tracking these contracts all week and after expiration for a post-mortem.

The collapse in China caught me by surprise (though I remain long FXI September calls).

The collapse in gold didn't, partly as a result of Bill's prescient calls this spring and partly as a result of the charts here:

http://tinyurl.com/2ktedf

Good luck and good trading!

Cause and effect - too often misconstrued. Is graduating from a top college the cause of getting top dollars, or is it just circumstantial? Going to a top college is often the effect of coming from a wealthy family, (i.e. they have the contacts and money to get their kids in). Wealthy families consort with other wealthy families and increases the likelihood that opportunities will be presented to offspring. I don't for a moment believe that Dartmouth College is the primary cause of the high-salary jobs. I find such bad science and misinterpretation of data very unfortunate as it misleads so many readers. (Pardon me if I'm just rehashing Bill's point.)

"Is graduating from a top college the cause of getting top dollars, or is it just circumstantial? Going to a top college is often the effect of coming from a wealthy family, (i.e. they have the contacts and money to get their kids in). Wealthy families consort with other wealthy families and increases the likelihood that opportunities will be presented to offspring."

Given the catastrophic career of George W Bush is there any doubt whatsoever about how far (or low) wealth and family connections can take the basest mediocrity?

Added QQQQ @47.26 next resistance 47.60-47.70

TBT - So, I seem to notice a general downtrend in TBT over the last few months. I had almost bought into the short bond trade, but was waiting for a signal, which I have yet to identify or confirm.

So tell me, if anyone knows, how is that short bond trade working out?

XAU at 142...

adding GDX at 36.19...

Sell 300 Shares of SLW
Details Filled at $10.44
Sell 150 Shares of GG
Details Filled at $31.12
Sell 2,000 Shares of GSS
Details Filled at $1.7918

Wonder why Shanghai has such a sharp drop while HongKong's level?

FXP - clear for take off.

LNG looking good here

vinod- i see you showed up, and are trading aggressively right out of the gate...

SBUX - Increasing sell limit.

Careful Chikenpookie. I wouldn't be suprised if today's action in FXP/FXI looks exactly like Friday's. FXI does NOT behave like mainland chinese stocks.

give that man a snorkel!

Chickenpookie, returning to our "ressesion-proof" stocks discussion of Friday. Take a look at CRVL for me and tell me what you think. It's a services company for Healthcare. Healthcare facilities seem the be pretty strong right now. Check out CRVL stock performance 2001-2003. From what I can tell, the company's growth is faily flat now but their balance and income sheets look pretty tight to me. Only downsides I see are it's thinly a traded, small-cap, and the P/E is 17 - I'd prefer lower. Ah crap, it just jumped 2% while writing this - lol.

Mackinaw - Thx, no plans to chase FXP, I'm in enough trouble already. Did you jump aboard Fri's Presto express? If so, congrats!

Another "recession proof" stock would be AZO, though it has already made a nice move recently. Lampert has been accumulating this one by the bushel.

You guys are completely misconstruing my point.

It's true that a primary determinant of getting into the ivy league involves coming from relative affluence. It is also true that coming to the ivy league from poverty will also dramatically improve your economic outcome. These places are sociologically privileged factories which process the argile attired fodder for the upper reaches of the corporate world. A black gang banger who somehow got their ticket stamped to Harvard beats me every time in a job interview. A guy whose grandfather also went to Harvard and who is white, polished and presentable will beat the gang banger. By the way, don't underestimate the effect of "Affirmative Action" on Wall Street. I know for a fact that due to their management of state pension money etc Wall Street is a VERY friendly place to Blacks and women from good schools. Just saying. I realize you can't discuss these subjects w/o coming off racist, but there it is.

2nd
after bill's WIR and your comments
I unloded all metal
doing nothing right now
FYI—we were at neighbor house until 11.00p.m
They all own few other house
This was their plan advise by realtor neighbor
They all took second mortgage and broughtup total mortgage more than what house was worth
I put 50% down because what I got from selling old house I put down as down payment
Very interesting

QQQQ pounding away at resistance 47.6x area. When it breaks through I will hold for a few days [assuming nothing crazy happens] then exit as the $NDX nears the 2000+ area which could be this week or early next week. Then I will switch this trade portion into QID.

Off topic... for a quick laugh

"Nissan Motor Company has asked its Israeli distributor to pull a local television commercial for the new Nissan Tiida (sold in the U.S. under the name Versa). The decision came after a Saudi Arabian official threatened Nissan with a region-wide boycott.

The commercial, produced by the firm of Inbar-Merhav-Shaked, depicts a group of Gulf Arabs in traditional dress and surrounded by bodyguards attacking a Tiida compact. After hitting, cursing and throwing a shoe at the car, the protagonist is pulled away as a voice-over says, "When you are the most fuel efficient, it's clear that you won't be loved by the oil emirates."

Mackinaw - Looks good, I like the concept. There are some big changes coming that might provide some elevation but I don't see that until next year unless Bush pulls a HC grenade out his butt. Also need to identify HC software providers. They will also benefit IMO. PWR is taking a dump as we speak (no pos, thankfully).

Market seems to be searching for a soul, I'll be window shopping.

shark_attack

you are totally correct about " ivy league"
most my relative are graduated from ther

nice chart on AZO, Billy. My investment rules wouldn't allow me to touch it though: massive debt and the Equity:Assets ratio is low, less than 10%.

GG- adding at 30.25...

Re: ivy league colleges and hiring

Reminds me of when I worked for a computer company in the mid-80s that had very advanced banking H/W and S/W products. Yet, for all the (for the time) huge functionality, reliability and flexibility of the products, the salesfolk had a hell of a time closing. Our president put his finger smack on the problem when he said, "No one ever got fired for buying IBM." Same idea for hiring out of the ivy colleges?

David- can you believe UAUA?

shark - I agree completely. There's a fine line between racist assumptions and objective observations, especially when you're on the wrong side of any conclusions. It's probably one of the largest obstacles to real progress. And, I'd say you need to wipe your shoes after that one... and maybe I do too.

vinod

When you look at the weekly MACD & Full Stochastic gold and silver still has room to fall. Looks like gold could bottom out around 800-820 in the newt few weeks. I'm looking for a sharp rally in a month or two.

You made a comment a few weeks ago about a trader who said the Fed rate would be 1.5% by yaer's end. I bet you he will be right.

QQQQ smashed trhough resistance up 0.91% with SNDK up 3.72%

UXG holders..think we will fall below $1 before Aug 20th?

It's ok Chicken. The people I referenced in my above post are still making 20 times more money than I am, so who's getting the last laugh?

vinod - Think about opening an equity line of credit, or a second mortgage if your still nervous about your income or the housing market. Equity line of credit could be a good hedge, not absolutely guaranteed if HB&B shuts down, but has no up front cost and you can use it in an instant for many compelling reasons.

XAU at 139...

Donald Coxe has offered a rationale for why gold and gold stocks have fallen so hard after Ben and Hank’s bailout of Faultie and Fraudie on 7/13:

The 3 reasons people flock to gold were gone:

1. Suddenly, short-term threats to the financial system were removed when the US gov't explicitly gty’ed F&F’s obligations, and forbade shorting of 18 key financials;

2. There was less fear of inflation as it seemed Europe was also sliding into recession;

3. There was less downward pressure on the dollar as it appeared the US would come out of recession first.

This came on top of the slide in oil prices, which had also helped the dollar, and hurt gold.

Since 7.14, all 16 US-listed gold producers with mkt. caps over $1B are off – between 10% and 40%

All 32 US gold companies with market cap under $1B (excluding pink sheets) are off, except CDY! – The worst of them is off 41%, not much more than the majors.

It's an equal opportunity slaughter !

Caraistas [Lunch break special]

For those of you who didn't see the "AMAZING" finish of the 4x100 freestyle relay race last night.

The anchor man Jason Lezak was unbelievable!

Enjoy: http://tinyurl.com/554tk7

GG- topping off at 30.08 and sitting back...

QT
let wait and see what happens about interest rate
some time they are right and some time they are not

Open question to the room,

Do you ever, after getting stopped out a couple of times or being on the wrong side feel like throwing your coffee mug through a big plate glass window, or better yet, hurting someone really badly?

Let's all take a shower, get a haircut, change our names and schedule an GS interview...

Also Ivy-League schools have special programs for the under privileged. State of Texas is very proactive in this arena.

Mackinaw - Thanks to your feedback, I'm brushing up on my shopping skills. I'd like a peek at your rule book... Where can I get one?

long BA, basis ~ 62.0

The Boeing Company projects that the global air cargo market will continue to exhibit strong, long-term growth, according to the company's Current Market Outlook 2008. During the 20-year forecast period, Boeing projects that the industry will grow at an annualized average of 5.8 percent with the world freighter fleet increasing from 1,948 to 3,892 airplanes.

http://tinyurl.com/6p75m5

Jock - Did Coxe indicate if we would are returning to prosperity following the brief commercial announcement? I've tried driving a car from the rearview, and that's not easy either.... Someone please send him a copy of Bill's book if he can't afford his own.

2nd ave,

Check this out...it's the GSS theme song!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i18nSZBgOfs

I just wanted to thank the Bill and the whole Cara crew for the excellent public service they provide here and for getting me out of gold stocks and into BC, GE, and BMY. Although I jumped into UBS and DB a little too soon. Are we getting greedy holding BC here?

jk484 - That BA quote would look nice all printed up in a color brochure with a bow tied around it but that doesn't change the facts pertaining to sell side propaganda. Their probably right, nun-the-less. (I'm long BA too, with a slightly higher basis).

here we go...adding to SLW at 9.95...

shark- nothing wrong with a snorkel-> some things you cannot see without one...just don't stay down too long...

Here's the story...every FREAKING thing I chose to do today worked out..after it didn't.

Is GSS looking good to anybody here? Are you and Vinod still in it?

Another video on the "Aurelian Scam" -

This a short, satirical 15 point plan for getting rich a-la-Patrick Anderson.

Set to Scott Joplin's the Entertainer - music made famous in the movie "The Sting".

It's worth 3 minutes of your time. BTW, what does the community feel about what I feel is properly called the "Aurelian Scam"? Not much commentary to date!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afh8dSqTmoQ

you guys are down over 6 clams right? ouch!

shark_attack
look at my earlier post
I am out of GSS/GG/SLW
and glad I did

good man

BC - As long as oil keeps falling I can see the inverse for this one. Still, keep in mind that consumers are tapped out on the housing market issue and aren't likely to run out to buy small yachts.

Frankly, I'm surprised to see the resurgence with this velocity, just keep raising your stop limit if you don't sell.

IMO - DYODD please

POG - I'm always too early on everything...

Shark Attack [re: coffee mug throwing]

No but I find myself yelling at the TV during CNN business stories a lot.

REG CROWDER

re: POG...

wow.

shares getting hit even worse on high volume.
total capitulation in that sector.

not even a dead cat bounce.

Dr. Cosa,

Gold will go much lower than 860 prior to resuming it's upmove. Try 660 or 700.

Posted by: shark_attack at August 5, 2008 10:04 AM

I throw beer bottles half full of cigarette butts... thinking of a change to cans.

XAU 136...another 5% and we'll be at 129...

I'm going to the packie right now. That's a liquor store for all you Texans.

SLW and GDX closing in on 8/16/07 levels...what's today's date? twilight zone in the gold sector (again)...

shark - if POG reverses at 660 I'm getting another truck full at 700 on the upswing.

Russia has moved troops to the city of Senaki in Western Georgia. These troops had to have "bypassed" the U.N. buffer force in the area--let's hope its bypassed and not destroyed.

Senaki sits on the main rail lines for Georgia's largest port, Poti. Poti, previously attacked by Russia, is now effectively of no use as a port. By taking out Georgian port rail lines, Russia is getting the effects of a a naval blockade without using ships.

Russia's recent activity also strategically blocks any land-based reinforcements coming from Turkey's direction.

Key Point: If Russia takes the city of Samtredia, Georgia's transportation corridor is useless and their economy is ransacked. No goods, no transportation, = broke Georgia.

If the city of Samtredia falls, Russia will control the entire economic chessboard in Georgia without attacking the capitol of Tbilisi.

Chickenpookie,

That's the way to pick up a falling knife--as it bounces off the floor!

Texans don't have liquor stores, they've got grocery stores like HEB. You can find most anything you want...

BP - xactly, I have to improve my discipline and the best way is through exercise.

Can Texans still drive to the grocery while sipping on the Lone Star long-neck in their cupholder?

Shark, re: the coffee mug through the window or joint locks/choke holds on thy neighbor - YES!!!

You HAVE to love this volatility. I put a small, growing, profitable company on my watch list a month ago. Liked it, but I don't like paying 27 P/E for anything. What with the TSX in a funk, the darn thing has been hammered down to 20 P/E :) Now I just need to wait for some signals that it's free-fall is ending :( I guess this is what Bill keeps talking about when he says "wait for price to come to you".

Georgia - And, according to Russia, they are defending Ossetia from Georgian aggression. (I'm just being fair, both sides should be presented)

This is without a doubt my worst day of trading....... ever.

CP- i don't think gold turns around today...but when it does, you almost have to be holding to catch the move...best i can do is buy when it sells off and keep the position on the back burner...remember the other side of the trade, right-> if you were thinking gold 850 when it was at 1050, you can think 1200 when it's at 830...

2nd - do they have a golden mushroom on that DIS ride?

shark - stiff upper lip!!!

2nd - You definitely have a good point there...

SLW

Looks like support is around 9 [2007 1Q]

WOW look at 24 Hour Spot Gold starting aa few minutes ago . . .

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

All we need is a hook and a cork, because that's a "fishing line" . . .

shark - A suggestion: If things aren't going your way, find something else to for the rest of the day; tomorrow start again, keeping position size small and increase only after you start making money again.

Looking to add to RTH/XLY shorts and possibly adding a bit of PM. Talk about catching falling knifes...

Man I am pissed off at both Putin and Saakashvilli. Ego without limits.

CP - this day trading isn't working for me. so i decided to go back to what was working. I started a new core positions recntly, each at 40%, and will add to 100% when the price drops further.

BA ~ 62.0
TM ~ 88,85,82
IBN ~29
TTM ~ 9

All green for now. a few got away, but will get them next time.

Buy quality on the cheap - thanks Bill.

Dat is amazing!

Since oil price dropping and many multi billion dollars project on going
Oil kingdom will need money for this project to finish and won’t be buying gold for a while
So it is possible gold may go lower than many thinks

OG - I wouldn't do it, if the cops see you, your goose is cooked. There's one hell of a lot of cops too. Banana Jane always talks about how the police force is 50% of Austin city budget. I haven't confirmed this but he/she might be right.

Just sitting in US$ right now, you guys are making out like bandits compared to us foreign traders :(

"The region is an international flashpoint, given its vital position in terms of oil supplies which run from the Caspian Sea to Europe through the small country."

...and that's what it's all about...

breathtaking dump in the POG.

no dead cat bounce or consolidation to any moving averages. ill admit i was skeptical of Bill's call for gold to retreat when we were running back above $950, i just didnt believe this type of routing was possible given the situation the US dollar is facing.

but there is it.

im staring at the POG with an EOF (egg on face)

im wondering if the move back up when it arrives will be any measure as aggressive as the move down...

gold off almost 40 at the intraday low...good day to add physical inventory...wedding planners in india probably are...

last thursday's put buyers getting taken out...

vlo doing a moon shot just now.

Wow, wonder where the money is going from here...

DBA taking off? Clever lil thing while all the other commodities are tanking...

TSO holders.....see that gap up WOOOW! At last this sleeping dog is up and moving.

One thing I don't understand is the war is looming but oil price is dropping. Even economical activity slow down due to the war, the war consumes a lot of oil as well.

my heart tells me to invest gold and oil.

I carefully read Bill's comment in his latest WIR. I sense that he said those trading desks can manipulate the market. Hence, they can drive down the precious metal price. But Don Coxe is saying that they can not.

Hmm... I think for trading Bill has advantage.

2nd
looking back, I should have hold all airlines I had I would been up 20k

ABX , in @ 32.42 , purely technical

nemo - true but there are more civil ways to handle the oil issue, why people should suffer that much due to hyper levels of testosterone in few people.

HOC and VLO too, QT.

Gold bugs went from dancing the Jitterbug to the "Mashed Potatoe" . . . I wonder how many have left the dance floor.

nemo - You forgot to mention the Russian Oligarchs favorite beach retreat to which they shall soon have access.

2nd_ave: If commodities will keep going down, then UAUA will keep going up. I guess I should have kept some UAUA as a hedge on my miners. Now I am all exposed and taking a beating...

I didn't place a buy limit on SLW at $10 -- my intuition was correct about it dropping much lower after its one day moonshot failed.

2nd_ave: why do you think the miners will be moving two steps back and one step forward? When a violent sell off begins, they usually move 10 steps back right away, and they lie dead on the bottom...

DavidV

Being unprepared for this lesson was expensive for those without cash, and even more expensive for the gold bugs on margin.

Occam:

That's the way it's been done for time immemorial-

Also, this is history repeating itself. Just as SE Asia was a proxy, Georgia is. Putin obviously, because of energy, has plenty of money to fund his military. Georgia, is too close to home to allow them to go NATO. Control their energy, railways, ports, they don't go NATO. He punches the US in the nose without having to punch them in the nose. You pacify Georgia, you start on the next one.

The oligarchs can afford to go wherever they want.

Chicken - that was probably the reason Russia got involved in this mess in Abkhazia in early 90s. Now it is all about NATO, oil and (future) gaz pipelines.

dr.cosa

I been reading a lot on this Elliot Wave Principle. When it is applied to the gold charts it shows that we are in a final correcting wave downward which will take gold to the 800 area [low parts]. This will be the final wave down before it spikes upwards to the 1300 area by end of the year. From what I have read we are getting close to the bottom but still some more time is needed for the last donward wave to play out. This wave 5 up which is coming, in precious metals are to be the longest with great upside potential.

Another view to consider dr.

And don't forget Bill's advice on Brunswick (BC) . . . you could've bought shares and sold puts between $10 and $9.50 and could then be selling today between $15.50 and $16.00.

BP- good imagery...buying should be done on a darkened stage while doing a sound check, selling when the dance crowds hits a frenzy...shoulda waited for the janitor to mop the butts off the floor before entering..

Occam - Is there some reason why Europe doesn't step in and do something about Georgian conflict?

Chickenpookie--

Europe needs Russian energy.

nemo - my point (and I may be wrong) is that testosterone overcomes business interests at some critical point and it is a runaway system after that.

CP-
kristofferson used to complain about the wannabes hanging outside his canyon home at night yelling out the occasional 'you've forgotten what's it's like, man:' "they forget i was the ----in' JANITOR in that joint for 5 years before they let me up on the stage..." well, right now, we're the ---in' janitors in the gold sector...

I follow XGD.to and SLW.to as representative of gold and silver senior miners. Right now SLW.to is sitting at solid long term support of $10.50 (Cdn) on P&F chart. RSI is oversold at 27. It has nowhere to go but higher from here, IMHO. If and only if it breaks below $10.50 Cdn over the next few days will I concede a significant break below support and sell out at a loss.

XGD.to is in similar position, oversold at RSI 24, sitting at longterm support of $16.15 (Cdn) on P&F chart.

These opinions are based solely on technical indicators (notably RSI, MACD and P&F charts). DYOD.

thx QT,

i dont understand elliot wave principles,
too much "C wave of 4 big 5 wave down within a broader VI wave corrective patten that should resume the current iii wave up in this bull market".....

i would be curious to see an analysis of the efficacy of EW.

This Georgian conflict came out of nowhere and portends big trouble. Putin is countering NATO expansion, seemingly daring NATO to intervene while he crushes the Georgian economy by bombing civilian targets. The US doesn't have the moral high ground to condemn this as we bombed civilian targets in Iraq. Putin's action in 'defending Russian citizens' is eerily reminiscent of Czechoslovakia 1938.

Not known to many Americans is that Putin control most of the gas supply for Western Europe and pushed through dramatic price increases last year. The US better have a strategy here; images of the president looking bored at the Olympics are frightening.

All I see in this rally is the attempt by the trading desks of the central banks and protected brokers to squeeze the long commodities/short financials trade.

Once enough people switch sides to be short commodities/long financials this bus will turn around quicker than anyone can react.

Rob.

DBA

a reminder that the USDA August Supply and Demand report is tomorrow

Do you get the feeling this is capitulation selling in gold today? If upcoming retest of the $820 spot low today holds I might just try HGU (2 X gold Bull) on TSX for a rally into the close.

Already did Oldgoat. I wasn't kidding when I said i went to the liquor store. 3 stupid things in 1 day is more than enuff.

dr.cosa

I understand what you are saying. But I have to confess this principle has saved my neck in the month of July when there looked like there would never be a sizeable "rally up" again. But it said there was going to be a few smaller ones before this final one we are in now. So I stood firm with those 2 bad trades I made SNDK & TSO at the begining of July. If I would of never found this line of thinking [Elliott Wave Principle] I would of most likely bailed out and taken a major hair cut. But now those trades may make me a profit rather than a loss plus the other trades like QQQQ has brought in very good returns for me because of this predicted rally.

And to me what Mr Cara writes each day, a lot of times are expressed in those waves on the charts.

So for me Dr .... Cara + Elliott = good results

Just my 2 cents

Max Pain follow up: 20-minute delayed prices and current differential at

http://nexalogic.com/maxpain.html

Current prices for the Dow, SPX, and financials are way above max pain, and energy/PMs are under it.

It pleases me that Bill seems fed-up with the rich having all the power.

Posted by Chickenpookie: "So tell me, if anyone knows, how is that short bond trade working out?"

Pretty well, I would say. :) A few weeks ago I loaded TBT at $67 and $69, and then I sold it at $70 and $71, then bought again at $70 (a few times), then sold at $71 (a few times). Last Thursday I bought it at $68.35 and placed a sell limit order at $69.50, which was hit today. Unfortunately, the volatility of TBT is low relative to its price, and so the money I make trading it (even though at the maximum I have been allocating 1/4 of my portfolio to it) pales in comparison to what I lost recently by buying into the miners.

As for the future, I am not sure any longer that TBT is a great medium-term investment. Oil price is coming down, and since the economic troubles are far from being over, the Fed can now actually lower the rate since inflationary pressures are reducing quickly. Remember that a while ago Bill said that the time to short bonds will be during the last big round of economic fears, when Fed will inject a lot of money into the economy and lower the rate. This setup worked well at the bottom of the first leg down in the market that ended in March (when you could have shorted TLT at $97), at the bottom of the second leg down that ended in July (when TLT had its next spike up to $93.50), and I am sure it will work great during the next leg down (Bill said there will be 3 of them before the market bottoms out and starts trading sideways). Right now, though, I am thinking that I don't need to wait until the end of the summer rally to sell my TBT (as I wanted initially). I may actually sell it at the close today, since I think the falling oil price and constantly reducing fears of inflation are negative for TBT.

What do others think about the above view?

Bill: can you please comment on it as well, if you have the time?

Thanks,

DavidV

XOM - Anyone looking at exxon yet?

SoO2 - Can you elaborate what you mean by Max Pain? TIA Adam

Bill has always said that the PM's are the last off the dance floor. It appears that they're moving off the dance floor. Does that mean that the overall market bottoms once commodities stop going down? TIA

confused.

If it can fall on your foot, then it is selling off today.
Market is running low volume today(runrate less than one billion shares).
Treasuries selling off.
Usd is tracking (band wagon)
Oil and energy are going on sale
Gold is getting melted (as WIR predicted).
Again commodities going not up.

Where is the money going?
Am I missing something. . .
Ideas?

Davidv - Congratulations on your TBT trades, it looks to me the chart has been in decline over the period, so a long strategy would have been a loser. The day trade strategy looks to have paid off. I stayed away due to the downward trend, and didn't consider for the day trade. I suppose I didn't understand the strategy.

norm

2 places I see are the Nasdaq & Rus 2000

Posted by QT: "UXG holders..think we will fall below $1 before Aug 20th?"

I think it is irrelevant now -- the downside from here to 0 is much smaller than it was from $6 to here. So as long as you were not doubling down on it, you might as well hold it until better days and view all fluctuations between $1.5 and $0 as noise. That's what I am going to do.

DavidV

DavidV

Yeah..that was my plans also. May add to it if it does hit $1.

Can you believe I actually hold some shares
bought at 6.25.. OMG!

I think money is slowly getting deployed into good, small companies - money-earners who are at a good price. Value-Line Index and Russell 2000 are cranking it up today, big time. Also, soft commodities ARE going up; the kind you eat, not drop on yur foot (DBA).

TSO, VLO, HOL, etc.

TSO has a negative downgrade by Fitch last night. WNR got an upgrade this morning. Note that USO has been consolidating near support 91.20. Should this puppy woke up, refineries will be scared off, and shorts piled in. If TA can be trusted, technically TSO's trend is up and have at least one more thrust up.

Am watching. Not sure how Wed's crude report will turn out.

QT: I am also holding some UXG since above $6. I have been trading it on the way down, though, selling some shares on each jump and then buying them back when they returned to the same level. Last time I did it on a rise from $2 to $2.50. Now, however, I think I'll stop trading it, so as not to miss the upmove. I'll top off my position by buying it at $1 (bringing it to 4% of my portfolio), and will wait for better days.

DavidV

Check out UVT (Ultra Russell2000 Value ProShares). Up 7% on 349% higher volume than average.

"Can you elaborate what you mean by Max Pain?"

"I am also holding some UXG since above $6."

I'd say if that doesn't qualify as a good answer then nothing does.

c3
"Not sure how Wed's crude report will turn out"

What I have noticed lately as we approach the end of summer, there are more and more speed boats on the river where I live. Where as in June & July there were none.

Also it seems like more and families are going to try to take that vacation [within driving distance ] after all. I guess they figure they wasted away June & July so why not at least splurge one time before the summer ends.

So I am betting gasoline inventories will be down and with oil down this should boad well for TSO. If so I am dumping it Wednesday.

shark- that's not max pain...CALM shorts can explain max pain to you...

ooops:more and more

Bonds - watch triangle break for direction on daily. Probably will lead to a 5% move either way.

Gold - since the sell signal in July, there has not been one buy signal - not one. If you sold a portion of your holdings on that sell signal, you took gains and now are waiting for a buy signal to get back in at lower prices. Eventually, the longs will be done puking and the buy signal will materialize. For the millionth time; please look back on the volatility of the price of gold in the 1970's, this move today should not surprise you.

The action in UVT is telling me the bulls are getting confident...

Apollo7 - Coxe vrs. Bill on PM's.

I think Coxe is a big picture strategist, whose clients are institutional investors. So, Coxe tends to be above the fray which we traders contend with.

He writes well, and makes sense out of larger trends, but I wouldn't use him for trading advice.

I just finished Coxe's 2002 book, which was great for understanding market history since the 60s, and the growth of eurodollar market (which funded 30-50% of US banks' loans, per Coxe, at that time).

He'll help you figure out which trend to follow this decade (PM's, ag, offshore oil) but not what to do week-to-week about your underwater position in gold stocks! -

Actually the percentage loss is much greater in UXG than in CALM.

I hate day-trading but I entered HGU (Double Gold Bull) on TSX as gold spot seems to have found a bit of support and might correct up a bit into the close after this bizzare sell-off. Finger is on the sell trigger for ANY sign of weakness.

2nd...seriously, if something goes from 6 bucks to a dollar, that's practically a total loss bro.

shark- up to now, but what are the POTENTIAL losses? it's the potential loss that wakes you up at 3am, my friend...

There's nothing bigger than a totl loss. That's what total means.

still think 'max pain' (using this phrase differently than SiO2, obviously) for CALM is around 70...

sure there is...ask our friends in jersey

vinod- hope you pounced on a little fear...

SNDK - Out @ 17.26 (entered @ 13.81 on 7/30 buy alert - Thanks, Bill & korvus!)

The only thing that wakes me up at 3 am is Colleen and not if she knows what's good 4 her.

shark- assume someone moved 5% of his account into UXG at 6-> at zero, he's out 5%...if he used 5% of his account to short CALM at 25, then he's down 15% when it hits 75...if he used margin to short CALM at 25, then he's a basket case until he gives up...

Wow. Oil coming all the way back. By the way since you brought it up who on earth would have shorted CALM at all? It's been in an uptrend the entire time.

entered DIG.

2nd...CALM is a 43 dollars. Where on EARTH are you getting 75 from and who in God's name would hold a short in that manner?

SBUX - Out @ 16.24, up 7% on the day; bought on 8/1 @ 14.34; again, thanks B/k!

Shark - CALM

Coxe was asked Friday about CALM, and pointed out that 80% of the cost of producing eggs is the grain the chickens are fed. So, when grain soars again, CALM could get nervous.

But till then, .... Who'd have thought an egg producer would be at 7x its Oct, '06 price?

stunning reversal in the airlines.

seconds to disaster!

Quite a recovery in Oil and the miners have mostly bounced off of their intraday lows. Still painful though.

Speaking of reversals: Anyone checkout the Housing sector today? I don't follow the entire sector, I watch CTX, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, and PHM. I particularly pay close attention to HOV since there is so much family ownership in that company.

They were up to 8.5 not too long ago, but here we are at 2:50 sitting at 7.52!!! 10% swing is a lot for less than 1 hour.

Meanwhile, Amazon's massive price movement was honestly due to Kindle sales predictions? Am I missing something here??? because awful conditions in the economy typically deter people from buying such things as fancy and nascent gadgets meant to replace books and newspapers. I personally love the company, but I think the elation is premature.

virtually the entire float on CALM is short...the only longs are the 30% held by insiders...

Ummm... make that 7.30 for HOV!!! What just happened?

GG - 60 min chart, RSI buy signal, flirting with down trendline.

DYODD

That is amazing...71.4% short interest.

What's the deal with that? Who are the kamikaze's who are short that sucker, and when they cover, won't CALM go up even more?

GG- that's what i mean about holding...how the hell would you have decided when/where to buy into GG?

Citi's analyst predicted the Kindle will sell as many units as the iPod did in its first year. Sounds like they have a position to unload. From what I have seen the Kindle looks like junk and costs as much as an iPod, although there is a new version coming out.

OK, in the absence of g034's skills, how would you have decided? LOL

shark- you just answered your earlier questions...

shark_attack:

That is amazing...71.4% short interest.

What's the deal with that? Who are the kamikaze's who are short that sucker, and when they cover, won't CALM go up even more?

--------------------

sharkie, welcome to the conversation we had last week....

moab: I have to agree in some respects. I see the whole iPod comparison as creating a relationship in investor's minds about the future potential of the Kindle, not the immediate potential. By making the comparison they are suggesting that the Kindle has the same multi-year growth potential that will send the hardware sales into the 10s of millions stratosphere and with it bring the iTunes equivalent of digital book and newspaper sales via Amazon's website.

Call me cynical, but I just don't see people having the same affinity for digital paper as they did for digital music!

All I really asked you was where you got $75 from and I still don't have an answer.

71% ... Yahoo says 91% of CALM shares are shorted as of July 10th.

I show 71-72 percent bigcharts detailed quote.

GG - gold oversold, will miners lead gold price bottom?

Look at Daily, then 60 min and lesser times if so inclined.

15 min chart, GG flirting with breaking 4 bar up trendline to the downside.

High risk buy.

Shark, speaking of large short interest, did you buy that LNG this morning? Market seems to like the earnings statement they put out this afternoon.

POT breaks 200 Day SMA. I guess the market thinks it's crap.

Fazeli -

Agreed.

POT - soon crap will turn to diamonds again, IMO.

LNG gone parabolic $4.20

LNG looking good here

Posted by: shark_attack at August 11, 2008 10:17 AM [link]

LNG $4.30 up $1.50 on the day 51%

The bottom line is that there is massive inflation in the system, but the speculators took the commodities and associated stocks too far. Now they are correcting, but the fundamental story remains (monetary inflation, growing Asian Middle Class, etc.) for global inflation. The major issue for many of these companies is the credit issue - can they get any?

I saw Paulsen interviewed the other day and he said that he is stepping down at the end of his term. At the time I thought to myself that he seems like the type of person who would want to be on the podium accepting the gold medal - so why is he letting someone else take the credit for his "save"? IMO, he is running for the exit because the issues of today are not going away, regardless of what is said on TV.

yes I have been in and out of it totally didn't anticipate what happened though.

shark- i could say i pulled it out of a hat...but actually i took the current price and divided it by the lowest fraction of normal amount of sleep the investor with the largest cojones would be able to tolerate for a period of several months...and arrived at a range of 70-75...

I hope SOMEBODY was in it for this move. Stupid me I got out earlier.

i gotta tell you I'm really hating today...everything about it...all day long.

vinod- hope you pounced on a little fear...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at August 11, 2008 2:36 PM [link]

did little, hope it workout-still holding
Buy to Open Put 5 Contracts of -OEBUP
Details Filled at $7.20

An idea for VINOD: Wait a year, buy your neighbor's houses for half price, just like averaging down.

shark- if you're looking for a train, the XAU hasn't pulled out yet...

An idea for the Shark: If you were sober when you bragged about your long term predictions last night, then you should re-consider the day trading. Please don't take offense. Great calls, lost in the noise of daily trading.

I'm looking for a train...to jump in front of.

"An idea for VINOD: Wait a year, buy your neighbor's houses for half price, just like averaging down."

shark_attack is too much for me and I got
killer whale

BC - if you bought on buy signal (or Bill's call prior to buy signal), it looks like a good day to take gains on the 60 min chart, plus found resistance at 200 dma - 50% gains in a month are nothing to sneeze at.

A fish without a porpoise

Major market principle...the past is prologue.

On Pot & Stuff - it feels like someone is "lurking" to catch at the lows and help it by pushing it over the cliff.

I don't get it. If you have been reading this blog for a while, you would have been practicing the buy/sell signal trading. If you used stops, you would have gains in Cara 100 stocks.

Plan the trade, trade the plan.

Not every trade works out, but if you kill losses and let the winners run, you should be fine today.

I have not noted the names of the posters, but I know that over the past few weeks I have read posts regarding buying various stocks and when I checked the chart - no buy signal. What was the rationale behind the purchase? You need a reason other than it was down.

the chapter is shark fails, not shark impaled...o/w it'd be a shark w/o a tale...worse, we'd be sharkless..

Great comment Go34, I sold JNJ and QCOM per the sell alert. They haven't been a raging sucess, but plus/minus .50. A huge sucess relative to the rest of my portfolio. Cheap to keep. That is no pressure to get out of a sideways short.

Well, I definitely learned a thing or 2 today.

GG -

Look at 60 min chart again and note how it's trading around the trendline. Or don't bother pulling it up, simply understand that it is.

Nothing much happening into the close here. Out of DIG and HGU. Couple 'o $/sh on DIG, .80/sh on HGU.
Have a good evening everyone.

I expect the eventual rebound in gold to be fast and furious when it comes, but don't try to catch the low, that is a fools game or for pros.

BC - forgot to mention that another reason to take partial gains is that oil may be bottoming soon. If oil rises again, BC will fall.

Not only do you watch the specific stock chart, but you need to watch the external catalysts as well.

Thanks g034. I think we have lost sight of the bigger picture swing trading as the furious waves of volatility wash over us.

DBA and POT

the two are hooked together, DBA is grains and POT is fertilizer, both charts are going down,
I am waiting for the price to come to me and I am watching the RSI

ABX from 52 to 32 in a month.

I didn't fail, I just didn't win the big prize, that's all.

Mackinaw,
I wrote last friday that I was keeping DOW because of the dividends. It being up over 5% today paid me that next dividend, so I sold it all. Now all I'm holding is SU and TGP.
I'll be heading out for a few days of camping in the RV up by Truckee, Ca. starting Thursday. I bought a travel trailer off of Craigslist last fall. Still had the plastic on the mattresses. I know the gentleman I bought it from experienced some demand destruction.
I'm going to try and hunker down and wait for Mr. Cara's 20.
Good trading.

Good entry point for DGP. Starting to build a position. Just sold out of DZZ. Hope it wasn't too premature. Leaving the PM stocks for those with better analytical skills.

I sold all my TBT today (1/3 at 69.50 on the way up, 1/3 at 69.95 when I was having breakfast and 1/3 at 69.50 at the close when I returned home). I did it because the reason for entering the position was no longer there. I'll wait for oil to bottom out and for inflation fears to resurface again (Bill said that traders will eventually realize that even at $100 oil, inflation will still remain). Or I'll wait for a major market sell-off and will pick up TBT at the bottom. Now slightly more than 1/3 of my portfolio is in cash now, and I'll be buying SLW (and maybe SLV and GLD) SLOWLY on its way down.

DavidV

Today stands out because it is the most money I DIDN'T make by not staying in a position that turned out to be a lot better than I thought.

But that's the thing about this game. You never ever "know". Hell, I didn't even buy the 380 retest (coulda flipped it at 440 a few later) because once you've F-ed up once it's hard to trust yourself. But hey. I'm learning. And tomorrow's a new day.

and yes, it's a bitter feeling.

"I'll be buying SLW (and maybe SLV and GLD) SLOWLY on its way down."

Definition of catching a falling knife...

Bill, I apologize if you've already discussed... but I know you said something about offering trading services for people with an IB account. What do you think the minium account size is that you will be offering services for, and do you intend to deal with IRAs? I ask simply because I am transferring a couple of accounts over to IB anyway, and I was curious if I need to open a particular kind of account if I was wanting to use your services. Thanks.

POT, DBA -

Rknick, what is your entry level? March low? POT fell through MA200. It bounced off 157ish with pretty good volume. I got long with CF. But, I suppose it could go lower to 115 to close a gap.

Falling knife illustrated:
http://tinyurl.com/5zh39z

I'll not reference the "after" photos....those so inclined can find them for themselves.

Tennessee - send a private e-mail to Bill.

For those who've been there and done that--now you can buy the shirt!
http://lady.atnext.com/images/next-photos/lady/20070627/IMG_0391.jpg

Fazeli,

I was considering buying a kindle until I heard a rumour that instead of a ringtone you hear when you turn the device on you have the sound of Bezos laughing!

SBUX - Finally offed this on someone else...

Glad shark still has his skin and it wasn't used to make some fancy handbag...

Posted by g034:

> "I'll be buying SLW (and maybe SLV and GLD)
> SLOWLY on its way down."

> Definition of catching a falling knife...

That's OK -- I have learned how to catch those, thanks to my friend 2nd_ave. :) You just need to START catching it at the multi-year low, apply the upward force to it slowly (scale in) and then stop when a certain percentage of your portfolio has been allocated to it. AND most importantly, do it with a stock/ETF that does not have a broken business model for the years to come. SLW has a great business model, and given the global growth in commodity consumption (the current US credit crunch is simply SLOWING down the GROWTH in commodity consumption, rather than reversing it), it MUST rise above current levels. I am betting on it being much higher than current levels during the fall-winter high season for precious metals. If this is the case, then why wait for some buy signal to materialize -- a buy signal is identified ONLY after the price has turned up.

DavidV

Behind the scenes of the recent dollar-strengthening:

Has anyone seen an analysis linking the U.S. Dollar's rise to increased investment by Countries and Soverign Wealth Funds that made Billions in petrodollars during the 2008 run-up?

Just trying to understand the recent simultaneous strengthening of the USD and the weakening in oil.

c3
I dont' have a price on POT or DBA to enter,
I am waiting for the US grain stocks report,8-12-08, they both could still have ways to drop, both are in the accumulation zone but have not given a buy alert with the RSI.

David - If you are buying on the way down, your avg price will be higher than the bottom, just like waiting for buy signals. However, if you wait for buy signals, you dramatically increase your probability of a winning trade. Plus, you never know how low the stock will go if you are buying it in a freefall. The most depressed postings on this site are from those who bought before the buy signal was generated - they got cut.

Also, if you are using a 60 minute chart, your chance of getting in at a lower price increases.

The exception to this is on a dramatic capitulation day when RSIs are extremely oversold. Then a trader should simply use a faster time period, ie; 60, 30, 15 or 5 minute chart. You are still buying on a buy signal.

just my $0.02 and, as always, I wish you the best.

OG - Congrats on your trades today!

apollo7 - I think you should listen and learn from Bill. Don Coxe should buy and read Bills book.

g034 - I bought all my longs on buy signals on 6/17 and SC 6/9. Have waited until green in my port, and dumping them with slight profit, not knowing if the market will be up or down 500pts tomorrow. It was a painful ride, and my port is still slightly negative due to WFMI.

I guess I'm just an idiot, or something...

And yes, IF I'd have used stops properly I would have avoided much of the pain.

I learned to short on down trends, and wait for bottom. Just because RSI indicates buy doesn't mean it's the right time...

BC 6/9

g034: I agree with you that buying at the bottom is much better than buying on the way down. Unfortunately, it is difficult to guess correctly when a buy signal has been generated.

Given that you want to allocate a maximum of X% of your portfolio to a position, what fraction of X would you allocate when you see a buy signal? The full X?

Then what about all those head fakes and bull traps? Failing to penetrate resistance on 2 tries and succeeding on a 3rd try? I am sure that the 10% run-up in SLW a couple of days ago was a buy signal at some time frequency, and all those who bought on that day are underwater now. Any technical formation that can qualify for a buy signal can be exploited by the manipulators (or by the crowd psychology) and can turn into a bull trap. So it would be smart to scale in instead of investing all X% the first time you see a buy signal. And if you are committed to scaling in (and scaling out on strength), then statistically, I think, it is better to buy on weakness at the end of a very large down day.

On the other hand, I have very little experience in correlating technical formations with resulting price action, so maybe I just don’t know how to detect a reliable buy signal.

2nd_ave: if you notice a buy signal for a stock AND its current price is below the last price at which you bought it AND you have allocated the full X% of your portfolio to it already, would you invest more after seeing a buy signal?

DavidV

I guess what I'm saying is I didn't catch on / understand your comments (there weren't many) on the way down from 5/19 to 7/14. It was only on the way up that I hear and finally understand.

Trading on the way up is easier than on the way down, it was June when your posts would have been helpful, rather than today.

"g034: I agree with you that buying at the bottom is much better than buying on the way down. Unfortunately, it is difficult to guess correctly when a buy signal has been generated."

David- you're not a day trader, right? Why not just wait until a buy signal for SLW is generated: http://tinyurl.com/48zyne

then sell on the sell signal

On Buy signals. These can be subjective. The RSI tool may use 30-70 as thresholds, but why not 29-71 or 28-72, or 30-80? Some could be better for each industry segment or stock or under different market conditions.

ALOHA !!

go34 ... My thoughts of Paulson's announcement that he is stepping down was this ... "ITS JEFFREY SKILLING, JR TIME ... EH?" Now you gotta ask yourself what must Bernanke be thinking about Paulson's move or does the professor even have a clue? Surely those two must have had a nice chit-chat over coffee in the lunch room there at the US Treasury before the announcement!!!

So the non-partisan US Comptroller General head of the GAO quit and now Paulson. Let me guess ... this time it will be a another Goldman Sachs rep that takes the baton? N-O-T-T-T !!

2nd_ave: I am not a daytrader in a sense that I don't watch the prices continuously intraday. In the case of SLW, I am buying a little on each $1 drop and placing a sell limit order $1 above each purchasing price (I bought today at $9.7 and placed a sell limit order at $10.7). If that limit gets hit intraday when I am not around -- that's fine with me.

If the VLO puts I sold expire worthless this Friday (or I sell the VLO shares as soon as they are given to me), then I will have 1/3 of my portfolio in cash. I'll try to hold off on buying more PM's until this Friday, unless the "leaders" of this blog will agree on some buy signal being generated for PM's.

DavidV

David- i need to put this out there again-> there is nothing back-stopping my trades other than negative sentiment, small position sizes, and instinct...no TA, no stops, no plan...in general, no more than 5% riding on a stock, and a maximum range of 15-20% on a sector as volatile as gold...

g034 is a pro, why not listen to his advice? i'm not arrogant enough to think my trading will come close to outperforming the many validated and back-tested systems out there, or that anyone should follow my lead...i think the basic principles are the same (buy weakness, sell strength), but there are more reliable ways to to do it...

i trade against sentiment for the simple reason it 'fits' my personality and i wouldn't do it any other way...it rewards my psyche in the same way taking 128 instead of 101 to fort bragg/mendocino does-> it may take longer and the payoff may not be as big, but i enjoy the hell out of it!

Kaimu,

I wouldn't lump David Walker in the same category with Henry Paulson. Walker tried for years to warn of the stupid economic quagmire the country was heading into and it fell on deaf ears. His presentations were logical, honest and professionally formed from real data.

Paulson, on the other hand is just another one of the good old boys from Wall St. who is only there long enough to see his buddies' (and probably a bunch of his own) shares rescued. His forked tongue assertions of wanting a strong dollar had a very hollow ring.

I suspect the dollar is up mostly due to behind the scenes deals between Central bankers doing a Paulsonesque juggling act. The dollar like all currencies is only recycled rags and old comic books.

Paulson was allowed to do his thing — Walker was not.

..i also stopped jogging and instead started walking about 30 years ago-> it seemed like every time i went running i had to 'push' myself, and every serious runner i saw had a grimace...whereas since junior high, i've always loved to walk- i'm over 6' with long legs and 'striding' down a city block at night or along a waterway is as close as i get to being in my element...i couldn't (and still can't) wait to hit the trails for a long walk...so now i have 30 years of pleasant memories, good knees, and another 30 years to look forward to...if trading were all about maximizing gains and watching screens for 6.5 hours each day, i wouldn't be doing it, i'd be contracting someone else to do it-> whereas making (less) money trading against the crowd just seems to do it for me- not here to compete, right...just make consistent returns on my own terms and have fun...

maybe casey can back me up...;)

walker/paulson- agree...walker is 'father knows best,' paulson is the hit man, and he fulfilled his contract...

g034,
Nice to see you commenting again. Hope you'll let us know when you think it an opportune time to buy. Still have a little dry powder ready for the AU side of the TOG though I missed your good sell signal, and also didn't act on Old Goat's excellent candlestick call a few days and many $ ago - I'm not as agile as a lot of traders here, so sometimes my pain threshold gets tested.

Anyone have any thoughts on the speed of this $up Au down move. Think it might be a hedge fund blowing up - unmet margin calls?

Update on Seabridge Gold -

After today's 13% drop, this shareholder needed some news. I phoned Seabridge CEO Rudi Fronk to ask where things stood vrs. his plan of late April to sell off non-core assets and then auction the company to a senior producer seeking to replenish reserves.

The aim was to sell Noche Buena (633K oz, M&I) by May for $40M and then other non-core assets for $80M, using sale proceeds for share buy-backs. This would elevate the share price to levels where bidding for the company would begin at attractive levels.

This summer, more of the 10 defined senior gold and copper candidates to buy Seabridge on the remaining core assets were to visit and get to know the massive KSM and Courageous Lake deposits (23M gold oz, M&I +20M inferred).

Today, Mr. Fronk's word on Noche Buena was "stay tuned". After this summer, 5 of the 10 candidates will have visited Seabridge's "make your company deposits" in the North. He claimed not to be in a rush because Seabridge has enough cash to operate alone another 2 years if necessary. Seabridge has a long record of upgrading resources to M&I status, and continues to drill to that end.

3 weeks ago, Seabridge presented a consulting study on costs of roads needed to access KSM, which Mr. Fronk characterised as very reasonable within the context of a $3B project. (This contrasts with NovaGold's inability to project accurately affordable costs on Galore Creek, whose development has been reined in by funding partner Teck Cominco, and which yesterday became the subject of a shareholder lawsuit against NG).

Seabridge offers painfully compellng evidence of just how tough the market is for junior gold cos. With seniors needing to replenish reserves, and large deposits few and far between, Seabridge offers what will probably turn out well north of 30M oz. in a safe country.

Admittedly, these are high-tonnage low-grade deposits, seriously affected by energy and capital cost increases. Mr. Fronk insists their revenues will be mostly gold (unlike neighboring deposits' pre-dominance of less lucrative copper). Small exploration risk, no country risk, development and production risks he maintains are much lower than Galore Creek.

Yet, Seabridge stock has fallen 63% from last October's high - and 13% just today. He's now talking more about joint venturing than selling the company at these prices. Despite delays and poor market conditions, Mr. Fronk is still, as I reported here on April 24th, a "man with a plan".

cyderman - I also missed the Au sell signal, but it wouldn't have mattered as I had already sold. Can't get a handle on these opaque buy/sell signals so I do the best I can with what I think I know. Like you, I know it's not perfect. Heck, I'm not technically correct, either.

The trick to jogging safely is only do it on grass, NEVER on tarmac, and your knees will be fine.

gold headed for 810 in asia...

no worries, though...sinclair has you covered (if you can wait until 2011)...

http://tinyurl.com/5bqzrf

uh, make that 800...

silver 14.06...

shark- i don't know about that...jogging on grass may lessen the stress, but it's still hard on the knees...runners are also prone to the mentality of needing to do it until the endorphins kick in...

the last time i traded gold was the fall of '07, selling into the run-up to 800...the sell-offs are violent, and almost always exceed any target you have in mind...i'd forgotten how wild it gets (short memory myself)...run-up to 860 followed by a drop to 770? drop to 770 followed by a run-up to 860? can't rule out either scenario, and feel free to add/subtract any multiple of 50 you want-> have to hand it to long-term holders like kaimu, who started buying under 250 and haven't looked back since...

Some eye popping charts from the Federal Reserve loan officer survey (some at levels of restrictiveness never seen before):

http://tinyurl.com/fedloanofficer

THE PROBLEM WITH RUNNING, is the repetitive motion. Pavement will definitely cause problems quicker, but it's the constant repetitive motion and pressure it puts on the joints that eventually cause the damage. Additionally, many people don't know how to run. Sounds stupid, but most people who run for health drive their heals into the ground instead of shortening their stride. Increases the pressure on the knees, hips, and lower back.

Oy weh!

Mon Aug 11, 4:03 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - People who want to live a long and healthy life might want to take up running.

A study published on Monday shows middle-aged members of a runner's club were half as likely to die over a 20-year period as people who did not run.

Whether or not these findings extend to running with alcoholic beverages alongside the Hashers remains an open question.

Jim says,
"Some eye popping charts from the Federal Reserve loan officer survey (some at levels of restrictiveness never seen before):

http://tinyurl.com/fedloanofficer"

Hardly eye-popping. None of this surprises anyone here does it? This is good and proper. This problem needs to be cleansed and this will help.

2nd: Course I back you up my man :)

I used to watching joggers in NYC ... pounding their knees into the cement... deep breathing in the soot ... thinking they were being healthy but instead just slowly eroding heir body away.

Funny how that works, watching people pushing oneself so hard... only into the grave a little faster. So much is like that isn't it including trading practices. Yep walking in stride patiently to the destination is often the nicer, more enjoyable path to take.

on the road again right now, I am noticing all the fun is happening in gold...

Running/Walking...

I already had a bad knee when I started jogging (twisted 20 years earlier carrying heavy load) — even a treadmill was real pain, walking good until back gave out. In my late 60s began biking. No prob so far and dropped the 20 pounds I had picked up — almost immediately.

A moving target lives longer :-)

P.S. Move for the body, read for the brain.

2nd_ave,

I thoroughly enjoyed your rant.

I'm also 6 foot with a very long stride and decided a long time ago to walk instead of run (I'm inherently lazy as well). At times I sometimes nag my short legged girlfriend (and they all have short legs next to mine) because walking as slowly as them doesn't feel natural. Like some primal urge to make transport myself is being held back. As I have gotten older I sometimes now ride a bike. It isn't as fulfilling as walking but is faster and lazier. I'm not talking the latest carbon fiber framed 18 speed hard seat bike....it's an Old Man Style Huffy with chrome fenders I bought new for $40 a couple years ago.

The only drawback to all this is I smoke. Ouch.

I was recently at the doctors office....pre surgery (double hernia) exam cardio-stress EKG. It took over 11 minutes on the damn treadmill with the treadmill at a 20% grade. I was in a light sweat and breathing almost heavily by the time I 'hit my pulse rate number'. Then the lab techs made me eat a sugared doughnut, drink a cup of black coffee and let me smoke a cigarette before the final catscan.

Do what is you.

Tarding note: to make this post legit...got into Zolt long a few weeks ago before an Alaska/Canada cruise. Was up a few bucks but on a cruise ship....by the time I got back I was underwater so I held.

Zolt announced earnings today. OUCH! Missed by a mile. The company is in a great area (carbon fiber) but the management is absolutely the worst. I may sell tomorrow since a beatdown is coming or I may hold since by the time I get up the damage will be done. Small position at least.

Watching and waiting for SKF to come to me.

Tarding note = trading note.

Maybe I was correct the first time.

Brighter horizon?

Both Bloomberg and Reuters have articles today indicating people are exiting gold. Could be an early sign for entry point just ahead.

Your Jesse fix for the day:
"It was very curious how, after suffering tremendous losses from a break of fifteen or twenty points, people who were still hanging on, welcomed a three-point rally and were certain the bottom had been reached and complete recovery begun. One day my friend came to me and asked me, "Have you covered?" "Why should I?" I said "For the best reason in the world." "What reason is that?" "To make money. They've touched bottom and what goes down must come up. Isn't that so?" "Yes," I answered. "First they sink to the bottom. Then they come up; but not right away. They've got to be good and dead a couple of days. It isn't time for these corpses to rise to the surface. They are not quite dead yet."
-- Jesse Livermore

Macinaw - Good point! We need karma cleanser, not ethnic cleansing!!!

$100 Oil, $800 Au, there's your supply/demand curve?

On the bubble and a need for a depression:

http://tinyurl.com/6d56eq

JVS3 -
"I'm not talking the latest carbon fiber framed 18 speed hard seat bike."

Uh.....the latest carbon fiber (or titanium) road bikes have 20 gears, except for 30-gear "triples" with "granny gears" to help wimps like me climb hills....but you are right about the seats still being hard! Oddly enough, the newest "big thing" seems to be "fixies"--single-speed bikes like they used to have in olden days.

OG - There's a lot to be said for the olden days IMO.

Mmmmh? The naked-short selling emergency rule expires today. Looks like SKF, is back on the menu.

Give me the big heavy Schwinn Varsity with crepe whitewalls. I get the same exercise without having to go as far.

Pookster, Isn't distance relatively irrelevant given consistent terrain? Isn't it the amount of time on the bike?

nemo. didn't that rule get extended into 2009?

Lot's up bad headlines in Finacials today (UBS, MS) but banks showed strength in crappy overnight Asian/European trading so it's probably an up day for XLF, wouldn't you think?

Maybe not...feels like a distribution day overall.

Mackinaw:

Not yet on the Short elling rule.

10 Best Performing Industries over the last Week:

DJ US Tires Index 19.65%
DJ US Home Improvement Retailers Index 5.70%
DJ US Gambling Index 15.46%
DJ US Clothing & Accessories Index 15.43%
DJ US Recreational Products Index 13.03%
DJ US Apparel Retailers Index 12.81%
DJ US Water Index 12.31%
DJ US Home Construction Index 11.45%
DJ US Consumer Electronics Index 11.04%
DJ US Specialty Retailers Index 10.95%

10 Worst Performing Industries over the last Week:

DJ US Mortgage Finance Index -21.63%
DJ US Platinum & Precious Metals Index -18.53%
DJ US Gold Mining Index -11.51%
DJ US Mining Index -8.44%
DJ US Coal Index -7.14%
DJ U.S. Iron & Steel Index -5.66%
DJ US Full Line Insurance Index -4.99%
DJ US Basic Resources Index -4.11%
DJ U.S. Industrial Metals & Mining Index -2.43%
DJ US Oil Equipment & Services Index -1.90%

nemo - I think exertion over a period of time would be a near approximation. The nice thing about riding a bicycle is physical damage is kept to a minimum (assuming there are no accidents). Which brings me to another point... Pedestrians being hit by automobiles. Whenever I discuss the merits of running, I aways try to include the risk of, and warning about, being hit by an automobile. I don't recall the statistics, but if you run in the vicinity of moving automobiles, I'm sure you must be cautiously aware of the danger.

SKF is also up $3

Pookster,

Back in the good old days when I used to run, it almost happened to me a couple of times. Then again, my brother got whacked by a car while he was bike riding.

UBS - Is this a buy signal? More like an opportunity for some Ninja trading... HA!

lol - Home construction index up, mortgage finance index down. That's a bit of a head-buster.

I love the run up in gambling stocks. I'm patitently watching them to lay on my next shorts. Americans may forgive and forget, but the fundamentals out in Vegas aren't changing . . . things will be worse before they're better for the gambling industry.

And, we trade for money, not for joy, but there is nothing like getting a lifetime of black-jack losses back via one good short of gaming stock. Quite the feeling. ;-)

BP-Take a look at MNTG for a short....terrible management and a ton of debt.

Bicycle seat neuropathy is one of the more common injuries reported by cyclists.

Guess who went jogging on grass this morning?
I mean jogging in a park, on a lawn:)

shark - Any revealing stats for ST trader injuries? Perhaps CPS or FBS (Flat Butt Syndrome)?

Gosh what a surprise, financials having trouble again???