reenzo- sitting out the trade is probably a good idea...if the drop in oil and NGas yesterday succeeded in shaking out the hurricane play(er)s yesterday, it's not going to work today..there's no question Gustav is going to jack up prices...

fwiw, note that Lehman revised its price target on UAUA yesterday from 16.50 to 26.00:

http://tinyurl.com/576oem

Good morning - Last time I voted for change I ended up with Jimmy Carter - an honorable man for sure, but not the leader needed.

selling my 300 shares of SKF here.

trying a little FNM at 7.36...

I like your take on Obama, Bill. I see it, too.

clearing out of HNU.to at 16 (CDN)...

Luggie, the problem wasn't Carter, it was the people who weren't ready to follow.

exiting yesterday's SKF starter position flat..

Yea! for the little guys, I'm glad Obama can acknowledge this.

Oil is expected to move quite a bit in the next few days. Straddles and strangles could be considered. This page shows some possibilities for both USO and UNG (as of 9:55AM):

http://nexalogic.com/strangles.html

Clearly the USO positions are attractive. The first two positions require a move of around 9% to be profitable. With oil expected to either move to 130 or drop to 110 that will be achieved and surpassed. Given that we still have more than 2 weeks to expiration, there will be also residual value on the side of the straddle that goes wrong.

Looks very good, please do your DD.

Not to pee on the clambake, but when was the last time there was "change" in politics?

I look at "education", for instance. Everybody's for it. The U.S., I believe, spends more per capita on education than any other country in the world. I'm not sure we get much for it. We tend to have more administrative personnel per student, as opposed to teachers (Tocqueville's bureaucracy). The curriculums tend to be soft, and touchy-feely(inclusiveness and isms), as opposed to driving the hard skills and performance.

Will there be change, on the heals of crisis, perhaps. Call me jaded, but the changes we see, I fear will be superficial, and the systemic root problems will be ignored, because doing the hard stuff proactively, is just not the venue of the body politic.

DTO - Will increase position if we get a strong storm response, just waiting for now...

re: politics and education (and trading opening gaps)

youtube "america is tyranny" and listen to george carlin explain why education is the way it is. THEY want "obedient workers" not intellectuals asking questions...

But since this is a financial blog, I am interested in hearing how some of the more experienced day traders play opening gaps. Been watching ABK closely since it has been so volatile. Note how it gapped down after a nice run yesterday. If you had "faded" the gap, it would have been good for 0.40 or so on a ~$7 stock... what do you all think about "opening gaps"

This sounds like such a "piggy back" statement, but I just want to shoot out a thought as I move computers and make preparations for Gustav . . . I've had a nagging feeling that small caps will lead the next bull, I just couldn't articulate it in my mind like Bill did above.

RE: Gustav: Current tracking has the storm cutting a broad path through a *lot* of oil platforms, so IEA or no IEA, I can't see how this doesn't jack up the prices in the coming days. If they do release the oil, to me that smacks of trying to keep everybody in a good mood while the Rep. convention churns on.

Blowout - I think I asked you before, but I forgot. Where are you? I'm visiting family in Houston, and wonder if I should be battening down the hatches, or getting out of town.

UAUA- based on the latest forecast, the ideal time to buy may be Monday, but of course the market will be closed...next best move is to wait for the significant rise/drop in oil prices that will occur and position yourself as best you can tuesday...note the closing sentence in the forecast, which either will/will not come to pass, and placing bets ahead of events just seems a good way to ruin your weekend..

AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA...SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY
QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME
MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. A LARGE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV
AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A
LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

I think they released oil from the SPR after Katrina also-not convention related.

writersblock,

I'm well east of Houston on the LA / TX border. I spit out my coffee this morning when Al Roker on NBC showed the computer model with Gustav landing in SW Louisiana, near Lake Charles, but coming in at an oblique angle and plowing through my "neck of the woods" along the SE Texas coastline.

So, like Rita (the "forgotten" Hurricane that was actually stronger than Katrina), we're making preparation. Offsite data backup in place, fuel in the vehicles, employees making preparations, natural gas generators working (a must for post-storm life!), etc.

I hope we don't need it, but hope isn't a strategy.

Oh, and the Russel 2000 is up 14 while the DOW is down 80 and the Nasdaq is down 30, so the market may sense a little of what Bill touched upon.

chicken - i closed out of my DTO yesterday at 32.70 on that gift spike that we got yesterday so that i can wait for the spike associated with Gustav. i'm beginning to think, though, that i should just get out of the whole oil trade thing. it's highly manipulated and i kinda prefer investing in COMPANIES.

GSL:T @2.05 may reflect a good entry for this one with exceptional leadership at top, 10mm oz/au resource, funds in the bank. Deposit in Columbia - sure beats Chavez land, and I think will be a mine not too far off.

nemo - Go ask the largest, most powerful unions in the nation why the US spends more and scores lower than most other world economies. I'd like to have their response(s).

OG

Thanks for the clarification--closed end fund, not CEF.

Noted someone grabbed AWP at the open with a 8.38 bid. Quickly back to 8.80s.

teamonfuego - I hear ya, but the DOW is going down to 10k range as the worlds economies slow. Unless you know which companies should benefit from a worsening economic situation... I can't think of many. Perhaps ones like CPRT?

nemo, good point. Will have to reign in my cynicism.

Blowout - good luck! Haven't seen people lining up at the service stations, here, in Houston, yet, but expect to. Fear is a very powerful motivator - still remember the pictures of totally frozen freeways, as everyone tried to flee Houston in front of Rita, all at once.

Regarding Gustav, my son returned from N.O. last night. Tulane is closed at least until next week.

He tells me the levees are not ready for another major storm. I hope he is wrong. But we have start thinking about where he will continue his education if the worst happens.

We had a similar discussion about R2000 on 08/14/08.

R2000 and S&P 400 are beating Dow and S&P 500 on the trailing 1 week again....+3.15/+2.21 vs +2.55/+1.84.

Now if this sell off can get real nasty by days end it will be a nice end to the week.

Good luck to anyone who might encounter Gustav in the next few days.

Blowout - hadn't thought of natural gas generators. Is that at a business? If it's at a home, how do you store the gas?

With all the increased interest in nat. gas, i.e., Pickens latest commercials, citing Iraq switching their cars to run on nat. gas, so they can sell us $120/barrel oil, I wonder if we'll see a price run-up in nat. gas, similar to that in oil

writersblock,

if you remember, Rita was headed for Houston and then "wobbled" East; I don't think you'll see panic in HTown unless another "wobble" happens on tomorrow or Sunday.

FNM- adding at 6.90...not really sure why i'm betting on a dead man walking...

Blowout, hoping for no wobbles, but wishing it would just fall apart, and hit no one. Not likely, though.

RE: KRY: just went past the 1.38 someone mentioned earlier this morning. Long, KRY.

KRY: of course as soon as I mentioned it, it "wobbled," and backed up.

Um...because the schools and school boards are the battle ground for the fundamentalists that want to ignore science and turn our public schools into Sunday schools?

If that battle and resources were turned to our kids and schools then the situation would change.

This is no different than a similar politicized war (in Iraq) where we spend the people's money on political BS (surge = NCLB) rather than the people's business, which as someone correctly pointed out, is more complicated and HARD to do.
Winning in Iraq is harder to do than "surging".
Controlling and politicizing education is hard to do and sucks up massive resources, so you get what you pay for, which is political fights.

When we let the actual military and teachers do their jobs and we remove politicians like Rove from F'ing it up, then we will make progress with the resources we alot. Clearly politicians are not military or education experts, they are F' ups that waste our resources, time and futures fighting over ideology instead of reality.

Bill

In this morning's comment, its ironic you mentioned "slavers" as McCain's family were Mississippi plantation owners. I figure its a joke played upon the electorate by the Illuminati puppetmasters, having the first partial black candidate pitted against the great great grandson of slave owners. It shall be an interesting 67 days until Nov 4.

chicken - i'm willing to be patient and wait for the companies i like to come to me. i particularly am interested in MELI starting at $25 (and hopefully down to $20). until then i actually want to start opening up a position in SRS.

by the way, CNBC always talks about this boatload of liquidity that is just waiting on the sidelines. is there any confirmation that the amount of cash in MMKT funds and other ST funds is at an all time high?

I have my own consulting business but I invested in a local computer business years ago, and the President had the foresight to put in NG generators to keep the internet service running. City gas, very dependable. If the city gas lines aren't working, then that's one place I don't want to be.

Leon Cooperman interview:

http://tinyurl.com/6m48jj

Part 1, you can search for part 2.

Very smart and honest man. Pay attention to "History of Bear market Cycles."

Nemo:
"Will there be change, on the heals of crisis, perhaps." Pun intended?

Government and Taxes
Full article at http://mies.org/story/3093

excerpt:

"The government taxes us to get money to do what it wants to do. But it seems like what they do — whether going to war or funding new projects — is never discussed in terms of money they have or don't have. I mean, Bush cut taxes, right? And the reduced revenue should have restrained him. But he spends on whatever he wants. The tax cuts didn't seem to reduce his power at all. Why is this?

It's a good question. Why is it that talk of tax policy doesn't seem to have a relationship to policy generally? Whether it's a bailout of subprime mortgage holders, large investment banks, or going to war, whether or not the resources exist to do these wonders rarely enters into the equation. Why is it that tax cuts don't curb the government? And why do politicians not feel the need to tax us more when they spend more?

You might at first say that the answer is simple: they just go into debt by running an annual deficit. And the debt today stands at some figure that has no real meaning, because it is too high for us to even contemplate. What does it really mean that the debt is $5 trillion or $10 trillion? It might as well be an infinite amount for all we know. At least that's how the political class acts.

Reference to the debt only begs the question. You and I have to pay our debts. We cannot run up an infinite amount of it without getting into trouble and losing our creditworthiness. In the private sector, debt instruments are valued according to the prospect that the debts will be paid. The likelihood that it will be covered is reflected in the default premium. But the debt of the US government doesn't work that way. The bonds of the US Treasury are the most secure investment there is. It is valued as if it will be paid no matter what.

If not through taxes, and if not through infinite debt, how is it that the US government gets the money it wants regardless of other constraints?

The answer here comes down to the monetary regime, a topic that causes eyes to glaze over but which is central to why the government seems completely out of control. It is not difficult to understand if we think of how a criminal with a counterfeiting machine might behave. Would we see fiscal restraint? Of course not. If a person could create all the money he needs or wants with a printing press, we would expect unlimited profligacy. This is precisely what the Federal Reserve does. It not only acts as the guarantor of the liquidity of the banking system but also functions as the guarantor of the entire government financial system.

Given this, it is hardly surprising that there seems to be a strange disconnect between tax policy and spending policy. The politician isn't concerned about it any more than the counterfeiter worries about the bills coming and going. They know that the money is going to be there if they need it. This is not only bad policy in general, but it introduces an occasion of sin for the political class. It is too much to ask of anyone to be financially disciplined if he has the capacity to create out of thin air all the money he wants."

Chickenpookie, why would you ask unions about the state of education? My wife, a union public school teacher, could not afford to own a home or support a family on her salary after 20 years in the profession.

You can be sure the money isn't getting "wasted" there.

She just started back for another school year. That means 12 hour days, buying necessities like paper out of her own pocket, overcrowded classrooms, an inflexible curriculum, and virtually no respect from anyone (including the administration and the public like you) except for the few students and their attentive parents who see their children grow under her teaching.

And that last little thing is the reason she endures the rest and comes for more every year.

It makes my blood boil when I hear or read anyone suggest that teachers or their union are to blame for what many perceive as an inadequate educational system in the U.S. Indeed, the system would fall apart if it weren't for those who work in the classrooms. It is a completely thankless job. And it is a completely disengaged and lazy public that looks for a scapegoat in the people who work the hardest and for the least reward.

And that's only the beginning of the problem.

Isn't it ironic that Obama downplays his Ivy league education, even though he earned it. Meanwhile, there has not been a presidential candidate who wasn't Ivy-league educated since Reagan?

What's up with that?

AWP:

Only 200 shares traded at 8.38. A block trade of 40000 went at 8.87.

Alpine has 3 cef's AWP, AGD, and AOP. I think Alpine is the old Evergreen funds of old. These three employ a dynamic dividend capture strategy to try to produce above average yield.

The AGD fund has an interesting portfolio of stocks that merit attention. The thing about these funds is that they are all on the floor with similar chart patterns which puzzles me with respect to AGD.

Anyway, I’m beginning to build a dividend portfolio for income and added AWP yesterday. As of now the portfolio consists of T, LLY, WYE, EWT AWP, and FRO.

WYE and EWT are subject to replacement as there divs are small; the others are most likely staying for a while.

FRO goes ex div on 9/2/08, so if you want the div (19.99%) buy today.

Long all.

2nd, on UAUA - I have been watching all morning as the news comes in and the talking heads talk up oil prices (while disregarding comments from actual traders who think a hurricane is already priced into the 115 level).

Since we can't trade Mon, I'll get my plan for the trade ready for Tues and see if the prices come down enough.

Pookster, I left that unsaid,

NEA

cyderman:

Sorry homonymistic disorder. Was cute though.

number2son:

That's why I said they waste the money on bureaucracy, both on the administration side and the NEA.

music man - TraderX (http://www.traderx.blogspot.com/) has an entire blog devoted mostly to opening gap plays.

TraderX blog is inactive, but the archives are littered with examples illustrating his approach.

As you say number2son, only the start of the problem. Couldn't agree with you more.

What nonsense on the political scene. I see nothing yet except political rhetoric. No real plans, thoughts or understanding of problems either.

-What are either of these politicians going to do about $9.5 trillion, now arguably $14 trillion of gov't debt?

-Unfunded liabilities of $50+ trillion? A banking crisis where regulation is still not seen eschewed as unnecessary?

-A complete lack of understanding of the credit bubble and how it was formed?

-No idea of what frequent market intervention via the federal reserve does to the business cycle?

-What about gigantic unfunded pension liabilities?

-How about the fact that federal and state deficits look almost assuredly to grow under either candidate?

-Do you get the feeling that either candidate has a clue as to why the dollar is where it is or what it needs to recover?

-Do you get the feeling that either candidates understand what is being done every time the federal reserve intervenes to thwart the business cycle?

No, this will be a one term presidency for whomever gets in and both major candidates policies are inflationary and Obama's protectionism is just scary - I believe by 2012 the ramifications will be ugly and that whomever is in power will get the blame for problems that they individually did little to create nor acknowledge, let alone solve.

Neither party will get my vote. I dislike the current Libertarian candidate, but the party will get my vote for the first time. I am just glad I have two citizenships because there is still no understanding or willpower to tackle the roots of the problems in this country where the only constant is short term thinking for political and financial gain.

Bill, if you want to talk politics in your commentary, you must accept that you will get thoughts political in the discourse. If it's a trading only blog then keep it that way.

[Bill Cara note:

I am simply observing a political and social process that is underway and trying to make sense of its impact on global capital markets. What is happening presently in US politics will have a huge impact on future prices. Did you know that Canada sent a very high level oil lobby to the Obama convention to seek his support for the Western Canada oil sands, for example? They had to stand in line with industry lobbies from other countries. Would they all be there if this event was merely rhetoric, as you suggest?]

Seems McCain has chosen a woman as his VP. Trying to steal away Hillary's female voters???

Will it work?

I'm 44 years old, female, from Montreal, Canada. I'm not much into politics, but WOW, oh Wow, I've never seen anything of the likes of the Obama campaign. Or the likes of any politician that comes close to having his charisma and leadership qualities, probably since JFK or Trudeau.

Wish we had a candidate like this in Canada.

I listened to him speak, boy does he have charisma. He just makes you want to follow him. I hope he ends up keeping his promises and brings change to my friends south of the border.

I for one miss the U.S.A of the past.

Sandra

FRO - Telstar3d - Thanks, just bought 110 shares FRO for the 20% dividend. I've been watching this one, might be a keeper...

Nemo,

Yes, I've got Paypal. Send me an email to my nick at gmail.

Many Thanks,

ST07: Excellent points, all you ever hear are statements that I will fix this or that.

When will we hear that this is the problem and is my plan to solve or at least deal with it? All we ever get is empty rhetoric.

That’s why I respect Boone Pickens he has a plan.

Watch DVR--this is a pure Gustav play and will be a good short in a couple of weeks

Leon Cooperman, part 2:

http://tinyurl.com/6qrapg

Whoever is elected will inherit a boatload of problems/challenges that won't be fixed overnight. We all know who made the decisions which caused the problems. They have an interest in the outcome of this election. I'll leave it at that.

Do appreciate the viewpoints of those truly living outside the U.S.

Back to the markets.

Bill: US politics

I can agree with your comment, "I see a beaten people rallying around a single black person who is trying to pick them up," as what the audience was cheering. I agree that's what you saw...

But as for the larger picture, I submit that each of our candidates soon learns to say what people want to hear. (If you must quote, do it often and varied.) Something for everyone. Obama was good at this from the git-go, but slipped a couple of times and let his true feelings show. Americans have a short memory, and are especially willing to overlook it due to the recent disastrous eight years. Hope is all we can do.

I can't accept Obama at his word. It's not a racial thing. I voted for him as our Senator from Illinois and was disappointed. I would gladly vote for Colin Powell — although after being hung out to dry at the U.N. I would lame him if he left the country in disgust.

I think the Republicans know they haven't a chance this time and have written it off. When people are disappointed with Obama's failure to "change D.C." and all the other big promises, The Repubs will come back to take advantage of those same short memoried voters and around we'll go again.

Our problems have been due to the longest running example of bipartisanship in our nation's history. The vast majority in congress are looking out for No. 1 only.

[Bill Cara note:

A weakness I found in Obama's sppech was that he linked "special interests" only with the Republicans when we all know the Democrats have their own set of puppet masters. However, Obama did present a specific platform that was directed to rebuilding the economy, which is a start, and I perceive his puppet masters are a little less oriented to Big Business and Wall Street and more in line with small business. That doesn't seem to wash with the usual Dem support for more regulation and bigger government, but we'll have to wait to see. I have an open mind. Also, I have no doubt that the Republicans will put on an impressive convention showing too although I have serious doubts about McCain's choice of running mate. One prominent political reporter even said that despite his many years of covering the scene, he really knew next to nothing about a woman who only about three years ago was the mayor of a small town in Alaska. After last evening, and now this development, I'm sure there are millions of Republican supporters who are scratching their heads today. So, America is changing. Like turning around an ocean tanker, it will take a long time for the capital markets to reflect it. But, we must spend some time analyzing the possibilities.]

Earlier today a Bloomberg article about Gustav and the oil price also cited a Telegraph.co.uk article by respected economics writer Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reporting that "... Russia may restrict oil deliveries to Western Europe over coming days, in response to the threat of EU sanctions and Nato naval actions in the Black Sea."

I haven't noticed a discernible impact on the oil price over and above what Gustav is causing. Is this being ignored by traders, do you think?

Significantly, the threat could be made real as early as Monday, according to the article:

"'They have been told to be ready to cut off supplies as soon as Monday,' claimed a high-level business source, speaking to The Daily Telegraph. Any move would be timed to coincide with an emergency EU summit in Brussels, where possible sanctions against Russia are on the agenda."

Clearly, a Gustav-Putin double whammy on Monday could have significant price consequences. Anyone have thoughts on the credibility of this threat?

The Telegraph story is here:

http://tinyurl.com/6yvshr

Powell correction: I would not blame him...

#2son,

I second that emotion about teachers. My wife is also a teacher and she also has 12-hour days and pays for some supplies from our earnings.

Cheney's provocation in Georgia ?

Putin alleged US gov't people in the conflict zone. Now on NPR, reports of a Cheney advisor in Georgia the week before Georgia's attack on S. Ossetia.

No doubt that Russian bellicosity strengthens McCain's electoral chances. No doubt (in my mind) that Cheney will do ANYTHING to keep his party in power, and view it as his last great act of "patriotism"!

everyman,

I've seen oil move on reports of traders taking in the most recent numbers on mosquito indigestion in Nortwest Namibia . . . I doubt something that siginificant is being ignored; maybe just not enough to overcome the big sellers out there.

Teachers are Saints. A Masters degree for how much a year? AND kids and their insane parents?
Saints I tell you.

Number2son tells it like it is.

number2son, there's more money being piled into public education in this country per student, than most countries, and yet we rank 18th. If this isn't partially to blame on teachers unions, then who is at fault?

I also know some former teachers who own their own homes, have good pensions including healthcare, and buy new cars and jet-skis every few years. I sell them their jet-skis. I also know some former private industry workers who were laid off in their 50's and 60's who have lost a large portion of their retirement incomes as their former employers have cut back.

Where's the money going? Ok, not to the teachers, and not for teaching supplies. Who's getting the money?

telstar3d - I suspect T. Boone Pickens also has a private adgenda that parallels his public adgenda which he has not disclosed. This involves selling water from a large aquifer.

Beneath the radar on an overall low volume down day.

Just throwing it out there. NOT a recommendation, please doydd.

Small cap SMBL.

Food distributor of heart healthy and low fat food products (Yes, they do distribute to WFMI, which is struggling in this economy). I look at this as a demographics play with the aging population eating healthier. Use some of the products myself.

Trading 6.47, up 4% today on above average volume per Schwab site (1 yr avg?), although checking my 1 month avg. doesn’t quite look that way to me.

Sell off around 8/8-9 after earnings did not meet expectations looked way overdone to me, although projections of future earnings looked good as I recall.

As posted on Skype at that time, picked up some shares in various retirement and other accounts (at prices between 5.50-5.89). (All except my trading account).

Not sure what’s causing strength today but has been mentioned as buyout possibility by Barron’s in the past. Also, Aug. 25th news: Co. Director purchased 101K shares.

Again doydd.

re: why doesn't constraining taxes constrain government:

[O'Neill] talks to Dick Cheney at the end, after O'Neill says, "We really need an economic policy, we don't really have one." And he confronts the president and says, "We don't need this second giant tax cut." And Dick Cheney says to O'Neill, "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter. We won the midterm elections. Our due is another big tax cut."

CY looks interesting to me so put out for consideration by mensa members of this team. It's had quite a recovery, but I've been thinking it is worth watching. No position. May have more to run? Article here to start off discussion http://tinyurl.com/643uzh

Number2son,

Both my wife and me are Canadian but we both worked in the states for five years. She is a teacher that taught in an inner-city school in Covington Kentucky. You are absolutely correct.

Just my opinion.

Bill,

I don't see how future prices will be impacted, at least in the areas I'm concerned about. Each election year we hear how it will be a pivotal change for markets. It never is, but rather much larger economic forces at work for decades continue to shape markets, IMO.

I'm not surprised to hear that a high level delegation was sent to speak with Obama on the oil sands since he has stated his position on what he calls dirty oil. I worked my summer jobs, as I was growing up, in those oil sands by the way. What Obama does on that seems irrelevant to me. If that heavy oil is not purchased by the U.S. it will most assuredly be happily purchased by Asia.

The only result would be the U.S. being even more dependent on undesirable sellers like Iran, Venezuela, Nigera, etc... It would be a monumental mistake to go that route, but I would not put it past Obama given some of geopolitical naivete I have seen him betray in speech.

I believe financial analysts are still too U.S. centric. It was not US consumption that set the prices for commodities over the past years, it was and will be Asian infrastructure building. Yes, I know the argument about their economies being driven by US consumption etc... The export numbers from China (staying aloft) and our fall into second place as China's biggest exporter tell the true story I believe. With or without the U.S., Asia will push forward long term and the prices I am most concerned about in the long run will be determined by them.

Prices of equities in the short term are certainly tied to perceptions about rates of growth, however the fundamentals of those stories will propel prices in the long term. Chindia growth falling from 9% to 5%, for example, is still year over year growth. Commodities demand long term does not look to me like it will be affected by US politics, except in the event that some of this anti free trade rhetoric comes to fruition, then the prices will only be higher than we are already projecting.

I know there are those that disagree and I welcome the opinions. I think duration of focus is a major factor that. Prices in the short term do not always reflect long term fundamentals. Your investment time horizon is paramount for how you view capital gain and risk/reward.

The rhetoric I am speaking of is the lack of specific plans to tackle the problems I have mentioned above. Heck, even an indication of understanding of the problems would be enough for me to become optimistic, but rather I have seen none of that yet; only broad based political rhetoric.

It is a shame because Obama is the type of personality who could do what was done in some rare instances throughout the 1900s and arguably what Reagan and sometimes Clinton were capable of - that is when there is Senate/House gridlock, appeal directly to the public in that charismatic fashion to educate the public on the problems and sacrifice required to force public will on the representative bodies to do the right thing for the long term health of the country. I haven't seen that in a long, long time.

I was watching his speech last night. And that was the first time I actually watch his speech. I have to admit his speech is very compelling and persuasive. After that, I immediately had a discussion with a democrat. I said he has given a lot of promise. He said he would cut taxes for 95% working class. He will lower the health premium if you are currently insured. he will give you the same health insurance as others have if you are not currently insured. He will create good jobs for America. Then I asked him "don't you think whether he offers too much? Where does he get the money?" He said all the politicians do the same thing. But he supported Obama.

I love to watch the movie "Matirx". I know before the things become better, there will be a dark stage. where are you now? Are we in the beginning of dark stage or the end of dark stage?

Many people believe capital market can be separated from politics. I don't think so. Closely watch the process will guide your betting.
If you don't realize Bush's ethanol's consequence, you won't realize the inflation in food.

I do not favor Repulicans as well. Especially I think current society is wrong. The society rewards the people who manipulate the numbers but the people actually doing the hard work are suffering. I don't think it will sustain. I used to ask my boss if CEO lower his compensation by $1millon, how many job positions can be saved in his company? I am not smart to figure the answer.

But I think Bill makes one valid point. If we look around the world, other countries have a bigger problem. I guess that makes US$ stronger. But I think without painful adjustment, US$ won't be stronger.

re: CY
Don't you wish you picked it up for $3 and change back in 2002?

ChickenPookie, there is no doubt that Pickens plan is self-serving, not only for the aquifer to which you refer (and which I was not aware of), but also to CLNE which is up about 60% since announcing his plan (Pelosi invested about 50 to 100K recently).

I do not object from people profiting from their proposal’s, just as I do not object from Bill wanting to monetize any blogger who thinks that he can benefit from Bill’s experience. They both have a lifetime of experience to share and do so willingly. We are after all a capitalistic society.

The most important issue is can the country benefit from Pickens’s proposal?

If not, please present your alternative plan.

P.S. I like McCain’s pick, a brassy pick.

All I can say regarding Bill Cara's Community Chat this morning....

Wow & amen.

music city man - I wish I had picked up some WMT back in the 80's, then again in the 90's... CY too.

If you set up a war in the schools and school boards, then you can't be surprised there is more spent on the war or complain about it.

As voters we are responsible for what happens in our schools and $4500 a year (on average state funding) isn't enough for 9 mos of really crappy babysitting much less teaching 38-40 kids.
All this proves is how disconnected most people are from education and it's true issues.
When someone with a Masters is ponying up for paper, pencils and educational materials we have a problem and extra money and high funding levels isn't one of them.

Assumptions based on the expenses or conditions in other nations are not accurate. It's apples and mangoes. Those based on actual conditons in the U.S. are what we need.

I'll bet right now that less than .5% of you have attended a school board meeting, which means sadly, most of you don't really know what you are talking about when it comes to your own schools. Don't feel bad or special, you are the norm (average).

Chickenpookie,
Exactly. I smell opportunity here. I've had "gold fever" like many and am way over-weighted in resource stocks. I think they will continue to do well, but I'm afraid my narrow focus will cause me to miss other opportunities. "Buy when others are afraid" I wish I was savvy enough to figure out which financial companies will weather the storm. These are the ones that will 10x your money in the next 5 years...
mcm

ST07, again well stated and excellent points.

Craig, thanks for the fish and chips tip in Goderich. Very nice place. It might be home sometime soon...

FNM- taking the 6.90 position off at 7.32...still holding the 7.36 position...

Speaking yesterday's GDP number. I am very confused now. It stated it is due to the lower US$ and rising export. It did not say what export. What does US export now?

anybody knows?

Telstar3d - I believe Pickes' plan will benefit the country as a whole, but his "piggyback" project also has the potential to cause harm. Depending on how much water is drawn from the aquifer, and sent down the path, under the power lines, the potential for impact to the region could be great.

Folks out in W.Texas get upset when they see good water being pumped from their aquifer and then sold. They feel it's a form of stealing. I loose respect for anyone who I find guilty of stealing, but not for their ideology on how to solve our energy problems.

re: recovery in financials
Perhaps another way to play it is to not worry about "picking" the financial crisis survivors, and just buying the sector in a dollar-cost averaging manner. i.e. keep your current 401k/403b holdings as is (bulk of mine are in broad market index funds) and add new contributions to the downtrodden sector- with a 5-10 year time horizon should this not do well??

Scrap paper is #1 US export? Also sounds to me like the US has exported inflation, perhaps.

might we see a green close today?

"In this morning's comment, its ironic you mentioned "slavers" as McCain's family were Mississippi plantation owners. I figure its a joke played upon the electorate by the Illuminati puppetmasters, having the first partial black candidate pitted against the great great grandson of slave owners."
Posted by: astral25 at August 29, 2008 10:54 AM

Astral25, that is indeed ironic, but I wouldn't give it much import because on the paternal side of my ancestors they were all Quakers, starting with my gr-grandfather back, and worked in the underground movement helping slaves to escape to Canada from the Preble Co., Ohio, area through Allen Co., Indiana and onward to Canada and other destinations. But, on the maternal side of my father's ancestry, there were plantation owners and I found a will that stated their beloved slave was left to their son.

I imagine there are many people with that kind of dual ancestral background.

Sounds great Rugger09, glad you enjoyed it!
So you're going to work the salt mines?
I have to admit it is an interesting story.
I love Ontario and had even more fun visiting when I found out my maternal side is all from the Eastern Provinces, but mainly Ontario and were involved in business and politics.

planning another (intraday) shot at HNU.to on a drop to the 14+ (CDN) level...

I don't remember the details, but I seem to recall having a discussion with people in Austria about the school system there and how different it is there from here.

My understanding is that they don't even have school boards and so their systems can run a bit leaner and be more responsive. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if a large chunk of money in North America is wasted on beaurocracy. It wouldn't surprise me if the beaurocrats have higher incomes than the teachers.

Maybe some of the europeans on this board can comment, am I misinformed? has it changed?

Out of the orders I placed last night, only the ABK sell short was triggered at 7.17. I thought that yesterday's short squeeze should reverse today, and it started out that way, but then ABK started rising again. Strange... I have just moved my sell short stop limit order on MER up by $1, stop $28, limit $27.80.

craig - I have nothing against teachers as a whole. The principal of the high school in my county drives an SUV provided by the county, along with fuel. He also has a fantastic health care plan in his compensation package, and makes well above the average pay for this county. The school parking lot contains the best looking cars of the county, aside from the county parking lots.

Most small businesses in this county cannot provide their employees with any form of health care, the best jobs are county gvmt. jobs, in terms of compensation packages.

I don't see the correlation of comparing apples to oranges when making comparisons with other countries, it seems to make sense.

This is not to say that there are not other forces at work here, just that my observations don't lead me to the conclusion that all teachers are under compensated when compared to the workforce as a whole.

Pookie, wasn’t aware of his h2o doings, but know there is a lot of controversy with respect to water rights.

If only we were all “Lilly White.”

Anyway, sorry your not here to enjoy the shrimp poke and ahi poke.

Just started reading today's discourse about Gustav gaining strength, and sold now at $11.15 the UAUA position I opened at $11.10. Now I just have the shares I purchsed at $12.30 and then $12.10.

"Out of the orders I placed last night, only the ABK sell short was triggered at 7.17. I thought that yesterday's short squeeze should reverse today, and it started out that way, but then ABK started rising again. Strange... "

Dave! Why do you think ABK is going to pull back! Wouldn't you consider the volume yesterday and the last week that institutional buying is happening??

re: Some interesting observations about "buy and hold" and timing...

1. If you bought CY 8 years ago and held it, you would have lost money.

2. If you would have bought it about 6 years ago, you would have 10x'd your money.

3. If you had bought it about 5 months ago, you would be up about 50%

Fascinating. All just observations from the 10 year chart. No wonder it's so easy to be obsessed with investing as a hobby.... Buy and hold??? Not me, not anymore...

If anyone wants to hear another theory on why oil isn't rising as expected on the storm news, my suspicion is due in part to an overabundance of natural gas.

"Folks out in W.Texas get upset when they see good water being pumped from their aquifer and then sold."

Wait 'till the neighboring states find out it's part of their acquifer also! The Supremes will adjudicate this one.

Grantmi: did I miss how the ABK fundamentals went from those heading for bankruptcy to those headed for increasing profitability? I think there was a major short covering in the past weeks, and the large volume of yesterday's move might very well be a large short covering as opposed to institutions buying. The institutions bought ABK a long time ago.

music city man - While you're at it, a few quick calculations on buy and hold will reveal the value of reinvesting dividends on dividend yielding stocks.

to the community.

Re: Palin as vp

As a conservative I was "scratching my head" as Bill mentioned.

Did a little info digging and honestly, I like the pick. Realize I am not a political genius but this woman is what America or even Canada is about.
Parents - teacher and secretary of school. Both coaches.
5 kids, one special needs (just born in April), oldest proudly serves the USA in the army (elisted, not officer).
Experience a concern, perhaps but mother 5 kids and run Alaska. Good enough for me.
Husband 20 marriage, he is a member of the steel union for an oil company. Pro, con there.
Awe

She stopped the 245 mil bridge to nowhere. Huge, eliminated the govenor private jet and now drives across the state to save the state money. (leadership).

Ok to my favorite: gun toting, NRA member, hunts, fishes, runs marathons and was a miss America (2ns place in Alaska) contestant.

Mid next week the polls will have a significant change. 6-8 points in either for Obama or McCain.

This lady has no ties to Washington as she has stopped pointless earmarks for her state. She is a role model foe young people of north America.

Took a step back and thought about it. I really like the pick.

Tell me another political figurehead that has an 80% approval rating besides her? Only person I could think of is maybe Texa rep Paul (I believe no one ever runs against him, I believe/assume that statement)

Have a look but I think she will be great and will have a positive impact to all issues facing the north American economy.

Thanks Dave... just trying to get your take.
i looked at the Shorts (http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=abk) and didn't think 1.7 days would take that long to cover!!

I think on the MBIA news... that this might be the bottom on these bond issues.

thanks

Does the workforce as a whole have Master's degrees? I doubt it.
That isn't the teacher's fault, nor is it the proper comparison, or we would compare CEO's to sanitation workers for an average.

THE comparison, in my opinion, is educational level.
There are too many variables otherwise.
I would imagine degrees in higher education are also required for most county jobs, not to mention they offer regular work, hence the better cars and people working harder for degrees to get those jobs.
Most jobs requiring Masters degrees pay way more than teachers earn.

Craig, I MIGHT accept an offer there. I have a few opportunities I am looking at. I've had a big change in focus in my life - I have a 5 month old little boy and the typical camp rotation life of a mining professional in the north is getting tough (I guess I like changing diapers, LOL). I'm starting to look for a job where I can come home every night, even if it could be perceived as a "step down" in my career.

It is a tough choice as my present employer and job are great. I know why life is a four letter word. HA!

WFMI- notice a buy alert was generated earlier this week, and performing well today in a down market...

Chickenpookie,
A good point re: dividend reinvesting. It's automatic dollar-cost averaging in a way- with someone elses money. I know you mentioned FRO with a hefty 20% dividend. How do you and other readers feel about pharmaceutical companies here? i.e. PFE as a long-term holding with it's 6.7% dividend? The baby-boomers are getting older and will need drugs (and not the kind they used in the 60's) ;)

correct. Not all teachers require a ma. Howervee the do need to obtain certificates that can take up to one year or more to get.

My sis-in-law teaches in Idaho. (low wage state). She teaches high school, loves it but hates the pay, what she has taken a while to realize is that re sheer fact of how economics play out. Summers off, winter and srpong break, about every holiday off imaginable. So we know a full time schedule is 2080 goes per year. Teachers typically work about 2/3rds of the year (generalized statement, some work more-summers).

Hours worked are hours rewarded, this is or is not fair but economically that is how it is. The exception of my six-in-law, ahevteaches English and has to grade papers which takes additional time vs a teacher who can grade multi choice with scantron. That is a hidden factor that may or maynot be fair.

Telestar3D,

Re: Alpine CEF's and FRO

Thanks, I'm looking for high dividend plays for my brokerage IRA. The Alpine CEF's do look like they are groping for a bottom. I think it was OG who mentioned them a few days ago. I'm buying small positions in AOD (18% yield) and FRO and will add more if they behave. Alpine CEF site: http://tinyurl.com/6awk73

Craig - If you're right, then when does the taxpayer get his pay raise and health care package? County employees here get theirs, and % taxes keep rising to boot. I say look more carefully at government and unions before requesting higher taxes. When and where does the call for higher taxes end? Taxes, you realize, are collected on a percentage basis, right?

For Canadians looking for CEF's with high yields, look at sdt.un and eit.un on Toronto

2nd,
what broker do you use to trade HNU.to?
I'm assuming Etrade...?

Averaging down into SKF

to whomever posted the link about cooperman's outlook...a quick look into the past shows that this guy has been bullish throughout this whole period:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/markets/cooperman_market_analysis.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007080816

http://www.cnbc.com/id/19417739

fidelity...which routes you from HNU.to to the symbol HZBNF when you're ready to trade...

music city man - One could look for defensive dividend payers, the real boring stuff like Procter (PG), MacDonalds (MCD), or Kraft (KFT), ie: consumer staples types, roll the div's back in, and probably do surprisingly well with much smaller risk on a long term horizon.

Pharma probably has some mileage, but there's the whole patent expiration issue to deal with, maybe generic pharma would be something interesting. Or perhaps biotech, which might soon be swallowed up by the big, desperate patent-expiring pharma.

I've been back eyeing LNG at this $3.50 level. The price has been held down the last couple days but not much volume available. I'm keeping an eye on the 3PM ET timeframe to see if the action looks like shorts trying to cover.

If someone needs to cover a chunk of shares there may not be enough volume to do so in an orderly fashion right now. Makes sense that given the modest correlation to the price of natgas that someone may not wan't to wait til Tuesday for a chance to cover.

I'm keeping an eye on volume - may be good for a bit of a run into the close.

Reference dividends, i.e. FRO

Keep in mind when the dividend is issued the stock will drop the amount of the dividend or in the case of FRO $3. You can check this on a chart that reflects dividend payments like google finance.

Then you have to consider where the global economy is going for the oil, iron ore and coal they ship. If things boom, no problem. If not, could be some erosion. There's some risk.

No position.

Maybe the taxpayer, who is also an employee, should stop complaining about unions and collectively negotiate their wages and benefits.

As proven, divided we fall.

I'm waiting to see if we can pick SKF after a dip under Daily RSI(7) < 30, hasn't failed as a trade yet.

TIVO worked well today

Auhead, it was OG who brought up Alpines cef’s yesterday.

I have become fed up with the yields available to investors who are seeking income. The current yields on bonds of 2 to 4.5% with inflation running at 5% are a joke. So I’ve come to the conclusion that I need to create a dividend portfolio that produces a real return.

My idea is to find 10-20 stocks that yield 5% or more with at least an 8% average yield and diversified over industries.

I have two major reservations: The first is going to require a mind-set shift on my part and it is this; if one has a 500K portfolio earning 8% it produces an income stream 40K, but if the initial investments were to fall by 20% I acquire a capital loss overall of 60K. This is what I’m not sure I could handle and perhaps writing options is where I need to look for solutions.

All numbers are hypothetical and are for concept/discussion purposes.

The second is with respect to timing which will have a direct affect of the portfolio’s capital appreciation/depreciation potential. I think we are in a bear market, but that the next 3-6 months may see a turning point where one wants to become longer of the market. However, maybe July will prove to be the lows and the time to buy is now. Since no one knows I am starting the build now.

My preference going forward is energy and base metal related stocks as I believe in the long-term fundamentals of the industries, but also be diversified a-crossed sectors.

Thanks for reading and all comments appreciate.

Grantmi, another reason I ventured into shorting ABK *now* (besides this being the day after a 40% short covering rally) is that the financials rallied this week on low volume, and such moves tend to be reversed. Moreover, the financials should have *tanked* after yesterday's GDP report, since the headline number is obviously unrealistic (as inflation is higher than 1.2% now) and does not imply that profitability of US corporations is increasing. At the same time, given such a headline number, the Fed will have more motivation to increase the interest rates. Maybe this number was cooked up on purpose to allow the Fed make a rate increase.

Did anyone notice a "sea change" in financials that might take them higher for the next few months?

Seamus - FRO - All good points which I am considering, I'm thinking the nearly $10 of dividend is compensation enough to keep me in the game even past distribution. I've watched FRO falling with oil, likely from demand destruction. Will keep my ears peeled for those fog horns... and a taut dockline on a sell limit.

mid-level experienced teachers in ontario,canada have a BA plus a 1 year B.ed. degree and will earn about $70,000 per year.

this includes 3 weeks at christmas, march break, and 8 weeks during the summer.

a school day in a typical pubilc school is about 5-6 hours in total.

extra-ciricular activity like sports and clubs shouldnt be considered towards their jobs as countless private citizens volunteer to coach sports and the like but can never demand more pay from their employers over it.

most teachers i know state the first few years are tough because of time spent developing lesson plans. this eases over time. and w/ the increase in teching assistants these days i find it very difficult for anyone to suggest teachers are underpaid.

they are a valuable resource and are paid well accordingly.

emotive arguments about how they teach children and thus deserve deity status are non-sensical,
a person teaching a 5 year old in pre-school earns $12 per hour and has a 3 year college diploma, while a teach teaching that child 1 year later in kindergarden earns about $30 per hour (mid-level expereince) w/ 5 years of university.

most teachers i ever had in school read off the textbook and were on strike 3 of my 5 years in highschool. (in ontario you used to do grade 13) currently teachers are demanding more pay increases above the %2-3 annual gaurantee over the next 5 years. at a time in ontario when manufacturing is dying and there are a glut of teachers without jobs this just seems out of touch.

to whomever posted the link about cooperman's outlook...a quick look into the past shows that this guy has been bullish throughout this whole period:

http://tiny.cc/4f5W3
http://www.cnbc.com/id/19417739

More TAX and spend? No thanks, taxes are already too high. I want to see more done in terms of efficiency, just like in the real world.

LNG in at $3.56

oil/NGas- (like everyone else), trying to understand the lack of movement...is it a short-term buying opportunity (at least in UNG/HNU.to), or is it a bull trap...they're treating TS (soon to be Hurricane) Gustav and TS Hanna like lightweight players...maybe (as CP points out) there is an overabundance of NGas, but can't say the same for oil, and what happened to NGas in 2005...just think prudent users of the commodities would be driving futures up a little more; why mess around with M Nature..

Bill,

I understand she went from city council to mayor of a town of only 9000 and then to a conservation group and finally governor.

The question I would like answered is, did she do something beneficial for each of those constituencies? (With an 80% approval rating she must have.)

If so, then she did something for a little group while Obama has done little for some large groups.

The one thing Obama offered which I like, is the tax breaks for keeping jobs and tax penalty for off-shoring. The trouble is no matter how sincere he may be, there is NO WAY congress will go along with it. They passed the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 which was a tax break for big business with no requirements the job creation would be here.

It's hard for me to be hopeful anymore. The best I can say is at least I did appreciate it when things were better. I've been fortunate to be born when I was and where I was.

Attention All Dividend Hunters:
since you've been talking it up about FRO and others, here's another shipping stock that just started trading: Global Ship Lease GSL Class A.
It merged recently with a blank check co. MAQ.U Marathon Acquisition.
George Soros has an 11.6% stake in this new co.

Just like SSW and DAC - containership owner with long term, fixed rate charters to one of the largest of cargo carriers.
GSL relies solely on this one customer for LT leases.
Latest SEC filing says they will file by Sept 4.with a dividend date.

They anticipate a $0.92 annual div. Current price 7.15

I opened a position @7.15

Downside: Yes, the global slowdown will impact the cargo carriers, but how much?

Norm,

Thanks for the bio on Palin — all good points in my book.

Teamonfuego:

I’m not here to defend Cooperman. The main point is that each segment had a small bit on bear market cycles and bull market cycles which I thought may be instructive to us all.

This man runs $6 Billion and can hold his own. I’ve been tracking his holdings for 5 years and he knows how to shift. The fact is no one knows the future of a stock, if portfolio manager did they would just put all their money in that one holding. Duh.

This man has class. I know for a fact about 7 or 10 years ago his portfolio did not perform well. He was so embarrassed by it that he basically sleeped under his desk for six months until he turned it around.

P.S. Sometimes I think that posting on a blog is a complete waste of time.

Best USO strangle is 93 puts + 94 calls. IMO it either makes some, or a medium amount of money, or a lot of money in case something catastrophic happens (which we really do not want to happen).

"i find it very difficult for anyone to suggest teachers are underpaid..."

In NorCal they ARE seriously underpaid. Believe it.

Grym Re: Gov. Palin as VP

I appreciate your points made on Palin today, as well as all others. Something I found today set off the bells; here's a link from my hometown paper about it:

http://tinyurl.com/5goshc

I would like to hear from the GOP and McCain, once the honeymoon is over, how this comports with GOP energy policy.

Have a great weekend.

ALOHA !!

I have been out of the loop thanks to MRSA! A nasty little bug that is resistant to modern antibiotics so they had to stuff me full of a 1950s sulfa drug called Bactrim. One downside to Bactrim ... I'm not suppose to be in the sun! How do you expect me to live in Hawaii and have a farm and not be in the sun?

One minor surgery later and I still can't talk for very long without hacking up my left lung! Type yes!

I can only guess I got this from Honolulu at either the gym, the Queens Hospital or the reef! Who knows? WOW ... you can;t even have a good time anymore without some SUPER BUG biting you in the ass! HA!!! What's the World coming to?

Chicken,

I'm no mouthpiece for any Teachers Union, but I'll tell you where the education money is going. In my neck of the woods ( Ontario, Canada ) it goes into bricks and mortar for Taj Mahal facilities that house over-staffed School Boards, new schools to replace old ones that surpass the facilities of 90% of the planet's schools - because local contractors have lobbied and used consultants to convince their free-spending friends that the halls are too narrow, heating systems too wasteful, or toilet stalls too small. Then there are the school bus operators with multi-million dollar contracts to shuttle our ever-obesifying children back and forth and further denegrating their health ( a boon to the medical-industrial establishment ). In every area of major need, be it education, health delivery, transportation etc. - where government is involved at some level - bureaucratic waste and corruption is the where the money goes - not the front-line workers or service providers as you clearly imply.

"P.S. Sometimes I think that posting on a blog is a complete waste of time.

Posted by: Telestar3d"

I know what you mean. I cut back and it even reduced my carbon footprint. I'm sure Al Gore is happy now.

Take of yourself kaimu, prayers and good wishes sent your way.

ALOHA!!

ON THE WORLD BANK
McCain and Obama say what they will on TV ... Inspire the masses to pure emotional titillation but when the speeches are over and votes are counted the World still runs on MONEY and the bankers OWN THE MONEY!

This is from the 71st United States Secretary Of The Treasury, Lawrence Summers back in 1991. It sums up the mentality of bankers and their quest to make global corporations need their product.

Summers left Harvard in 1991 to become the Chief Economist of the World Bank and in December of that year this memo came out.

DATE: December 12, 1991
TO: Distribution
FR: Lawrence H. Summers
Subject: GEP

'Dirty' Industries: Just between you and me, shouldn't the World Bank be encouraging MORE migration of the dirty industries to the LDCs [Least Developed Countries]? I can think of three reasons:

1) The measurements of the costs of health impairing pollution depends on the foregone earnings from increased morbidity and mortality. From this point of view a given amount of health impairing pollution should be done in the country with the lowest cost, which will be the country with the lowest wages. I think the economic logic behind dumping a load of toxic waste in the lowest wage country is impeccable and we should face up to that.

2) The costs of pollution are likely to be non-linear as the initial increments of pollution probably have very low cost. I've always thought that under-populated countries in Africa are vastly UNDER-polluted, their air quality is probably vastly inefficiently low compared to Los Angeles or Mexico City. Only the lamentable facts that so much pollution is generated by non-tradable industries (transport, electrical generation) and that the unit transport costs of solid waste are so high prevent world welfare enhancing trade in air pollution and waste.

3) The demand for a clean environment for aesthetic and health reasons is likely to have very high income elasticity. The concern over an agent that causes a one in a million change in the odds of prostate cancer is obviously going to be much higher in a country where people survive to get prostate cancer than in a country where under 5 mortality is 200 per thousand. Also, much of the concern over industrial atmosphere discharge is about visibility impairing particulates. These discharges may have very little direct health impact. Clearly trade in goods that embody aesthetic pollution concerns could be welfare enhancing. While production is mobile the consumption of pretty air is a non-tradable. END

Mr. Summers has claimed that this memo has been taken out of context. I don't know but someone at the top of the banking empire has to make such decisions. Its not going to be OBAMA ...

LNG - volume did not materialize - out w/ a couple cents gain - maybe next week

USO 93 puts @4.20, 94 calls @4.15.

Terry C,
You're right. In the largest city near us, that's where the money went and goes. I was going to write something similar, but I had a few phone calls. You are so on the money!

Posting on a blog may be a waste of time for those who don't wish to post on a blog. For those who do wish to, it isn't a waste of time.

KRY closes above the 130 support of the left side of the cup w/handle. Still a far distance from many shareholders. Only a buyout will cover their position. A permit will cover me and then some.

Oil & nat gas are both in a tight range on the daily chart. They're also in a squeeze (bollingers inside keltners) on the daily. just stand aside and wait to see which way they break out of the box. No need to try to be a hero and try to guess which way it's going to break (unless you want to setup a straddle).

Telestar3d,

I have similar goals and concerns. Writing puts and selling covered calls lowers your cost basis but does not protect from large price drops. I would still use stops.

A screen on Value Line for stocks with dividend yields over 8% resulted in 26 names. As expected, many are financial companies whose dividend is likely to be cut. Among those that seem to have a secure dividend, and seem to merit further investigation, are: BSET, DRE, ETP, FUN, SPH, AEG, GCI, HPT, PCU and NZT.

Comments are appreciated.

Sarah Palin,

Tough cookie! "Barracuda" was her basketball moniker! If she were a fictional character, her creator would be accused of having gone over-the-top. The biggest criticism of her as a gubernatorial candidate was..."No experience," yet she has added "governor" to her resume.
She does provide a foothold for the Dems, however, as Sen. Obama can now point out that "She has even less experience than I do!"
Campaign 2008 now has its Diva: Barack, John and Joe, will be fighting for headlines. This husky can hunt!

"KRY closes above the 130 support of the left side of the cup w/handle. Still a far distance from many shareholders. Only a buyout will cover their position. A permit will cover me and then some."

Trader.. do you really think Charting can predict any movement on KRY? The only thing that's going to satisfied holders is a buyout or the permit! JIMHO

kaimu- MRSA is endemic to many, if not most, hospitals in the US, so that would be the most likely source...another reason to wash your hands often, ask your MD/RN to wash theirs, and maybe remove your shoes/change clothing when returning home...

glad to have you back!

Telestar3d - thanks, 'ppreciate it.

2ndave - Yes, good call I think, I agree that waiting until Tues. morning to see how most of this shakes out is probably the prudent thing to do. I'm looking at UAUA as perhaps a 2-5 week trade until we get to an oil bottom.

Grym,

Palin sold the alaska governors plane on E-bay for 2.7 mil.

The proceeds went to the state of Alaska.

hmm.... what can we sell that the current administration has bought?
looks like an oil set-up. Natural resources will be on sale.

Katrina - yes that was the las