reenzo- sitting out the trade is probably a good idea...if the drop in oil and NGas yesterday succeeded in shaking out the hurricane play(er)s yesterday, it's not going to work today..there's no question Gustav is going to jack up prices...

fwiw, note that Lehman revised its price target on UAUA yesterday from 16.50 to 26.00:

http://tinyurl.com/576oem

Good morning - Last time I voted for change I ended up with Jimmy Carter - an honorable man for sure, but not the leader needed.

selling my 300 shares of SKF here.

trying a little FNM at 7.36...

I like your take on Obama, Bill. I see it, too.

clearing out of HNU.to at 16 (CDN)...

Luggie, the problem wasn't Carter, it was the people who weren't ready to follow.

exiting yesterday's SKF starter position flat..

Yea! for the little guys, I'm glad Obama can acknowledge this.

Oil is expected to move quite a bit in the next few days. Straddles and strangles could be considered. This page shows some possibilities for both USO and UNG (as of 9:55AM):

http://nexalogic.com/strangles.html

Clearly the USO positions are attractive. The first two positions require a move of around 9% to be profitable. With oil expected to either move to 130 or drop to 110 that will be achieved and surpassed. Given that we still have more than 2 weeks to expiration, there will be also residual value on the side of the straddle that goes wrong.

Looks very good, please do your DD.

Not to pee on the clambake, but when was the last time there was "change" in politics?

I look at "education", for instance. Everybody's for it. The U.S., I believe, spends more per capita on education than any other country in the world. I'm not sure we get much for it. We tend to have more administrative personnel per student, as opposed to teachers (Tocqueville's bureaucracy). The curriculums tend to be soft, and touchy-feely(inclusiveness and isms), as opposed to driving the hard skills and performance.

Will there be change, on the heals of crisis, perhaps. Call me jaded, but the changes we see, I fear will be superficial, and the systemic root problems will be ignored, because doing the hard stuff proactively, is just not the venue of the body politic.

DTO - Will increase position if we get a strong storm response, just waiting for now...

re: politics and education (and trading opening gaps)

youtube "america is tyranny" and listen to george carlin explain why education is the way it is. THEY want "obedient workers" not intellectuals asking questions...

But since this is a financial blog, I am interested in hearing how some of the more experienced day traders play opening gaps. Been watching ABK closely since it has been so volatile. Note how it gapped down after a nice run yesterday. If you had "faded" the gap, it would have been good for 0.40 or so on a ~$7 stock... what do you all think about "opening gaps"

This sounds like such a "piggy back" statement, but I just want to shoot out a thought as I move computers and make preparations for Gustav . . . I've had a nagging feeling that small caps will lead the next bull, I just couldn't articulate it in my mind like Bill did above.

RE: Gustav: Current tracking has the storm cutting a broad path through a *lot* of oil platforms, so IEA or no IEA, I can't see how this doesn't jack up the prices in the coming days. If they do release the oil, to me that smacks of trying to keep everybody in a good mood while the Rep. convention churns on.

Blowout - I think I asked you before, but I forgot. Where are you? I'm visiting family in Houston, and wonder if I should be battening down the hatches, or getting out of town.

UAUA- based on the latest forecast, the ideal time to buy may be Monday, but of course the market will be closed...next best move is to wait for the significant rise/drop in oil prices that will occur and position yourself as best you can tuesday...note the closing sentence in the forecast, which either will/will not come to pass, and placing bets ahead of events just seems a good way to ruin your weekend..

AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA...SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY
QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME
MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. A LARGE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV
AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A
LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

I think they released oil from the SPR after Katrina also-not convention related.

writersblock,

I'm well east of Houston on the LA / TX border. I spit out my coffee this morning when Al Roker on NBC showed the computer model with Gustav landing in SW Louisiana, near Lake Charles, but coming in at an oblique angle and plowing through my "neck of the woods" along the SE Texas coastline.

So, like Rita (the "forgotten" Hurricane that was actually stronger than Katrina), we're making preparation. Offsite data backup in place, fuel in the vehicles, employees making preparations, natural gas generators working (a must for post-storm life!), etc.

I hope we don't need it, but hope isn't a strategy.

Oh, and the Russel 2000 is up 14 while the DOW is down 80 and the Nasdaq is down 30, so the market may sense a little of what Bill touched upon.

chicken - i closed out of my DTO yesterday at 32.70 on that gift spike that we got yesterday so that i can wait for the spike associated with Gustav. i'm beginning to think, though, that i should just get out of the whole oil trade thing. it's highly manipulated and i kinda prefer investing in COMPANIES.

GSL:T @2.05 may reflect a good entry for this one with exceptional leadership at top, 10mm oz/au resource, funds in the bank. Deposit in Columbia - sure beats Chavez land, and I think will be a mine not too far off.

nemo - Go ask the largest, most powerful unions in the nation why the US spends more and scores lower than most other world economies. I'd like to have their response(s).

OG

Thanks for the clarification--closed end fund, not CEF.

Noted someone grabbed AWP at the open with a 8.38 bid. Quickly back to 8.80s.

teamonfuego - I hear ya, but the DOW is going down to 10k range as the worlds economies slow. Unless you know which companies should benefit from a worsening economic situation... I can't think of many. Perhaps ones like CPRT?

nemo, good point. Will have to reign in my cynicism.

Blowout - good luck! Haven't seen people lining up at the service stations, here, in Houston, yet, but expect to. Fear is a very powerful motivator - still remember the pictures of totally frozen freeways, as everyone tried to flee Houston in front of Rita, all at once.

Regarding Gustav, my son returned from N.O. last night. Tulane is closed at least until next week.

He tells me the levees are not ready for another major storm. I hope he is wrong. But we have start thinking about where he will continue his education if the worst happens.

We had a similar discussion about R2000 on 08/14/08.

R2000 and S&P 400 are beating Dow and S&P 500 on the trailing 1 week again....+3.15/+2.21 vs +2.55/+1.84.

Now if this sell off can get real nasty by days end it will be a nice end to the week.

Good luck to anyone who might encounter Gustav in the next few days.

Blowout - hadn't thought of natural gas generators. Is that at a business? If it's at a home, how do you store the gas?

With all the increased interest in nat. gas, i.e., Pickens latest commercials, citing Iraq switching their cars to run on nat. gas, so they can sell us $120/barrel oil, I wonder if we'll see a price run-up in nat. gas, similar to that in oil

writersblock,

if you remember, Rita was headed for Houston and then "wobbled" East; I don't think you'll see panic in HTown unless another "wobble" happens on tomorrow or Sunday.

FNM- adding at 6.90...not really sure why i'm betting on a dead man walking...

Blowout, hoping for no wobbles, but wishing it would just fall apart, and hit no one. Not likely, though.

RE: KRY: just went past the 1.38 someone mentioned earlier this morning. Long, KRY.

KRY: of course as soon as I mentioned it, it "wobbled," and backed up.

Um...because the schools and school boards are the battle ground for the fundamentalists that want to ignore science and turn our public schools into Sunday schools?

If that battle and resources were turned to our kids and schools then the situation would change.

This is no different than a similar politicized war (in Iraq) where we spend the people's money on political BS (surge = NCLB) rather than the people's business, which as someone correctly pointed out, is more complicated and HARD to do.
Winning in Iraq is harder to do than "surging".
Controlling and politicizing education is hard to do and sucks up massive resources, so you get what you pay for, which is political fights.

When we let the actual military and teachers do their jobs and we remove politicians like Rove from F'ing it up, then we will make progress with the resources we alot. Clearly politicians are not military or education experts, they are F' ups that waste our resources, time and futures fighting over ideology instead of reality.

Bill

In this morning's comment, its ironic you mentioned "slavers" as McCain's family were Mississippi plantation owners. I figure its a joke played upon the electorate by the Illuminati puppetmasters, having the first partial black candidate pitted against the great great grandson of slave owners. It shall be an interesting 67 days until Nov 4.

chicken - i'm willing to be patient and wait for the companies i like to come to me. i particularly am interested in MELI starting at $25 (and hopefully down to $20). until then i actually want to start opening up a position in SRS.

by the way, CNBC always talks about this boatload of liquidity that is just waiting on the sidelines. is there any confirmation that the amount of cash in MMKT funds and other ST funds is at an all time high?

I have my own consulting business but I invested in a local computer business years ago, and the President had the foresight to put in NG generators to keep the internet service running. City gas, very dependable. If the city gas lines aren't working, then that's one place I don't want to be.

Leon Cooperman interview:

http://tinyurl.com/6m48jj

Part 1, you can search for part 2.

Very smart and honest man. Pay attention to "History of Bear market Cycles."

Nemo:
"Will there be change, on the heals of crisis, perhaps." Pun intended?

Government and Taxes
Full article at http://mies.org/story/3093

excerpt:

"The government taxes us to get money to do what it wants to do. But it seems like what they do — whether going to war or funding new projects — is never discussed in terms of money they have or don't have. I mean, Bush cut taxes, right? And the reduced revenue should have restrained him. But he spends on whatever he wants. The tax cuts didn't seem to reduce his power at all. Why is this?

It's a good question. Why is it that talk of tax policy doesn't seem to have a relationship to policy generally? Whether it's a bailout of subprime mortgage holders, large investment banks, or going to war, whether or not the resources exist to do these wonders rarely enters into the equation. Why is it that tax cuts don't curb the government? And why do politicians not feel the need to tax us more when they spend more?

You might at first say that the answer is simple: they just go into debt by running an annual deficit. And the debt today stands at some figure that has no real meaning, because it is too high for us to even contemplate. What does it really mean that the debt is $5 trillion or $10 trillion? It might as well be an infinite amount for all we know. At least that's how the political class acts.

Reference to the debt only begs the question. You and I have to pay our debts. We cannot run up an infinite amount of it without getting into trouble and losing our creditworthiness. In the private sector, debt instruments are valued according to the prospect that the debts will be paid. The likelihood that it will be covered is reflected in the default premium. But the debt of the US government doesn't work that way. The bonds of the US Treasury are the most secure investment there is. It is valued as if it will be paid no matter what.

If not through taxes, and if not through infinite debt, how is it that the US government gets the money it wants regardless of other constraints?

The answer here comes down to the monetary regime, a topic that causes eyes to glaze over but which is central to why the government seems completely out of control. It is not difficult to understand if we think of how a criminal with a counterfeiting machine might behave. Would we see fiscal restraint? Of course not. If a person could create all the money he needs or wants with a printing press, we would expect unlimited profligacy. This is precisely what the Federal Reserve does. It not only acts as the guarantor of the liquidity of the banking system but also functions as the guarantor of the entire government financial system.

Given this, it is hardly surprising that there seems to be a strange disconnect between tax policy and spending policy. The politician isn't concerned about it any more than the counterfeiter worries about the bills coming and going. They know that the money is going to be there if they need it. This is not only bad policy in general, but it introduces an occasion of sin for the political class. It is too much to ask of anyone to be financially disciplined if he has the capacity to create out of thin air all the money he wants."

Chickenpookie, why would you ask unions about the state of education? My wife, a union public school teacher, could not afford to own a home or support a family on her salary after 20 years in the profession.

You can be sure the money isn't getting "wasted" there.

She just started back for another school year. That means 12 hour days, buying necessities like paper out of her own pocket, overcrowded classrooms, an inflexible curriculum, and virtually no respect from anyone (including the administration and the public like you) except for the few students and their attentive parents who see their children grow under her teaching.

And that last little thing is the reason she endures the rest and comes for more every year.

It makes my blood boil when I hear or read anyone suggest that teachers or their union are to blame for what many perceive as an inadequate educational system in the U.S. Indeed, the system would fall apart if it weren't for those who work in the classrooms. It is a completely thankless job. And it is a completely disengaged and lazy public that looks for a scapegoat in the people who work the hardest and for the least reward.

And that's only the beginning of the problem.

Isn't it ironic that Obama downplays his Ivy league education, even though he earned it. Meanwhile, there has not been a presidential candidate who wasn't Ivy-league educated since Reagan?

What's up with that?

AWP:

Only 200 shares traded at 8.38. A block trade of 40000 went at 8.87.

Alpine has 3 cef's AWP, AGD, and AOP. I think Alpine is the old Evergreen funds of old. These three employ a dynamic dividend capture strategy to try to produce above average yield.

The AGD fund has an interesting portfolio of stocks that merit attention. The thing about these funds is that they are all on the floor with similar chart patterns which puzzles me with respect to AGD.

Anyway, I’m beginning to build a dividend portfolio for income and added AWP yesterday. As of now the portfolio consists of T, LLY, WYE, EWT AWP, and FRO.

WYE and EWT are subject to replacement as there divs are small; the others are most likely staying for a while.

FRO goes ex div on 9/2/08, so if you want the div (19.99%) buy today.

Long all.

2nd, on UAUA - I have been watching all morning as the news comes in and the talking heads talk up oil prices (while disregarding comments from actual traders who think a hurricane is already priced into the 115 level).

Since we can't trade Mon, I'll get my plan for the trade ready for Tues and see if the prices come down enough.

Pookster, I left that unsaid,

NEA

cyderman:

Sorry homonymistic disorder. Was cute though.

number2son:

That's why I said they waste the money on bureaucracy, both on the administration side and the NEA.

music man - TraderX (http://www.traderx.blogspot.com/) has an entire blog devoted mostly to opening gap plays.

TraderX blog is inactive, but the archives are littered with examples illustrating his approach.

As you say number2son, only the start of the problem. Couldn't agree with you more.

What nonsense on the political scene. I see nothing yet except political rhetoric. No real plans, thoughts or understanding of problems either.

-What are either of these politicians going to do about $9.5 trillion, now arguably $14 trillion of gov't debt?

-Unfunded liabilities of $50+ trillion? A banking crisis where regulation is still not seen eschewed as unnecessary?

-A complete lack of understanding of the credit bubble and how it was formed?

-No idea of what frequent market intervention via the federal reserve does to the business cycle?

-What about gigantic unfunded pension liabilities?

-How about the fact that federal and state deficits look almost assuredly to grow under either candidate?

-Do you get the feeling that either candidate has a clue as to why the dollar is where it is or what it needs to recover?

-Do you get the feeling that either candidates understand what is being done every time the federal reserve intervenes to thwart the business cycle?

No, this will be a one term presidency for whomever gets in and both major candidates policies are inflationary and Obama's protectionism is just scary - I believe by 2012 the ramifications will be ugly and that whomever is in power will get the blame for problems that they individually did little to create nor acknowledge, let alone solve.

Neither party will get my vote. I dislike the current Libertarian candidate, but the party will get my vote for the first time. I am just glad I have two citizenships because there is still no understanding or willpower to tackle the roots of the problems in this country where the only constant is short term thinking for political and financial gain.

Bill, if you want to talk politics in your commentary, you must accept that you will get thoughts political in the discourse. If it's a trading only blog then keep it that way.

[Bill Cara note:

I am simply observing a political and social process that is underway and trying to make sense of its impact on global capital markets. What is happening presently in US politics will have a huge impact on future prices. Did you know that Canada sent a very high level oil lobby to the Obama convention to seek his support for the Western Canada oil sands, for example? They had to stand in line with industry lobbies from other countries. Would they all be there if this event was merely rhetoric, as you suggest?]

Seems McCain has chosen a woman as his VP. Trying to steal away Hillary's female voters???

Will it work?

I'm 44 years old, female, from Montreal, Canada. I'm not much into politics, but WOW, oh Wow, I've never seen anything of the likes of the Obama campaign. Or the likes of any politician that comes close to having his charisma and leadership qualities, probably since JFK or Trudeau.

Wish we had a candidate like this in Canada.

I listened to him speak, boy does he have charisma. He just makes you want to follow him. I hope he ends up keeping his promises and brings change to my friends south of the border.

I for one miss the U.S.A of the past.

Sandra

FRO - Telstar3d - Thanks, just bought 110 shares FRO for the 20% dividend. I've been watching this one, might be a keeper...

Nemo,

Yes, I've got Paypal. Send me an email to my nick at gmail.

Many Thanks,

ST07: Excellent points, all you ever hear are statements that I will fix this or that.

When will we hear that this is the problem and is my plan to solve or at least deal with it? All we ever get is empty rhetoric.

That’s why I respect Boone Pickens he has a plan.

Watch DVR--this is a pure Gustav play and will be a good short in a couple of weeks

Leon Cooperman, part 2:

http://tinyurl.com/6qrapg

Whoever is elected will inherit a boatload of problems/challenges that won't be fixed overnight. We all know who made the decisions which caused the problems. They have an interest in the outcome of this election. I'll leave it at that.

Do appreciate the viewpoints of those truly living outside the U.S.

Back to the markets.

Bill: US politics

I can agree with your comment, "I see a beaten people rallying around a single black person who is trying to pick them up," as what the audience was cheering. I agree that's what you saw...

But as for the larger picture, I submit that each of our candidates soon learns to say what people want to hear. (If you must quote, do it often and varied.) Something for everyone. Obama was good at this from the git-go, but slipped a couple of times and let his true feelings show. Americans have a short memory, and are especially willing to overlook it due to the recent disastrous eight years. Hope is all we can do.

I can't accept Obama at his word. It's not a racial thing. I voted for him as our Senator from Illinois and was disappointed. I would gladly vote for Colin Powell — although after being hung out to dry at the U.N. I would lame him if he left the country in disgust.

I think the Republicans know they haven't a chance this time and have written it off. When people are disappointed with Obama's failure to "change D.C." and all the other big promises, The Repubs will come back to take advantage of those same short memoried voters and around we'll go again.

Our problems have been due to the longest running example of bipartisanship in our nation's history. The vast majority in congress are looking out for No. 1 only.

[Bill Cara note:

A weakness I found in Obama's sppech was that he linked "special interests" only with the Republicans when we all know the Democrats have their own set of puppet masters. However, Obama did present a specific platform that was directed to rebuilding the economy, which is a start, and I perceive his puppet masters are a little less oriented to Big Business and Wall Street and more in line with small business. That doesn't seem to wash with the usual Dem support for more regulation and bigger government, but we'll have to wait to see. I have an open mind. Also, I have no doubt that the Republicans will put on an impressive convention showing too although I have serious doubts about McCain's choice of running mate. One prominent political reporter even said that despite his many years of covering the scene, he really knew next to nothing about a woman who only about three years ago was the mayor of a small town in Alaska. After last evening, and now this development, I'm sure there are millions of Republican supporters who are scratching their heads today. So, America is changing. Like turning around an ocean tanker, it will take a long time for the capital markets to reflect it. But, we must spend some time analyzing the possibilities.]

Earlier today a Bloomberg article about Gustav and the oil price also cited a Telegraph.co.uk article by respected economics writer Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reporting that "... Russia may restrict oil deliveries to Western Europe over coming days, in response to the threat of EU sanctions and Nato naval actions in the Black Sea."

I haven't noticed a discernible impact on the oil price over and above what Gustav is causing. Is this being ignored by traders, do you think?

Significantly, the threat could be made real as early as Monday, according to the article:

"'They have been told to be ready to cut off supplies as soon as Monday,' claimed a high-level business source, speaking to The Daily Telegraph. Any move would be timed to coincide with an emergency EU summit in Brussels, where possible sanctions against Russia are on the agenda."

Clearly, a Gustav-Putin double whammy on Monday could have significant price consequences. Anyone have thoughts on the credibility of this threat?

The Telegraph story is here:

http://tinyurl.com/6yvshr

Powell correction: I would not blame him...

#2son,

I second that emotion about teachers. My wife is also a teacher and she also has 12-hour days and pays for some supplies from our earnings.

Cheney's provocation in Georgia ?

Putin alleged US gov't people in the conflict zone. Now on NPR, reports of a Cheney advisor in Georgia the week before Georgia's attack on S. Ossetia.

No doubt that Russian bellicosity strengthens McCain's electoral chances. No doubt (in my mind) that Cheney will do ANYTHING to keep his party in power, and view it as his last great act of "patriotism"!

everyman,

I've seen oil move on reports of traders taking in the most recent numbers on mosquito indigestion in Nortwest Namibia . . . I doubt something that siginificant is being ignored; maybe just not enough to overcome the big sellers out there.

Teachers are Saints. A Masters degree for how much a year? AND kids and their insane parents?
Saints I tell you.

Number2son tells it like it is.

number2son, there's more money being piled into public education in this country per student, than most countries, and yet we rank 18th. If this isn't partially to blame on teachers unions, then who is at fault?

I also know some former teachers who own their own homes, have good pensions including healthcare, and buy new cars and jet-skis every few years. I sell them their jet-skis. I also know some former private industry workers who were laid off in their 50's and 60's who have lost a large portion of their retirement incomes as their former employers have cut back.

Where's the money going? Ok, not to the teachers, and not for teaching supplies. Who's getting the money?

telstar3d - I suspect T. Boone Pickens also has a private adgenda that parallels his public adgenda which he has not disclosed. This involves selling water from a large aquifer.

Beneath the radar on an overall low volume down day.

Just throwing it out there. NOT a recommendation, please doydd.

Small cap SMBL.

Food distributor of heart healthy and low fat food products (Yes, they do distribute to WFMI, which is struggling in this economy). I look at this as a demographics play with the aging population eating healthier. Use some of the products myself.

Trading 6.47, up 4% today on above average volume per Schwab site (1 yr avg?), although checking my 1 month avg. doesn’t quite look that way to me.

Sell off around 8/8-9 after earnings did not meet expectations looked way overdone to me, although projections of future earnings looked good as I recall.

As posted on Skype at that time, picked up some shares in various retirement and other accounts (at prices between 5.50-5.89). (All except my trading account).

Not sure what’s causing strength today but has been mentioned as buyout possibility by Barron’s in the past. Also, Aug. 25th news: Co. Director purchased 101K shares.

Again doydd.

re: why doesn't constraining taxes constrain government:

[O'Neill] talks to Dick Cheney at the end, after O'Neill says, "We really need an economic policy, we don't really have one." And he confronts the president and says, "We don't need this second giant tax cut." And Dick Cheney says to O'Neill, "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter. We won the midterm elections. Our due is another big tax cut."

CY looks interesting to me so put out for consideration by mensa members of this team. It's had quite a recovery, but I've been thinking it is worth watching. No position. May have more to run? Article here to start off discussion http://tinyurl.com/643uzh

Number2son,

Both my wife and me are Canadian but we both worked in the states for five years. She is a teacher that taught in an inner-city school in Covington Kentucky. You are absolutely correct.

Just my opinion.

Bill,

I don't see how future prices will be impacted, at least in the areas I'm concerned about. Each election year we hear how it will be a pivotal change for markets. It never is, but rather much larger economic forces at work for decades continue to shape markets, IMO.

I'm not surprised to hear that a high level delegation was sent to speak with Obama on the oil sands since he has stated his position on what he calls dirty oil. I worked my summer jobs, as I was growing up, in those oil sands by the way. What Obama does on that seems irrelevant to me. If that heavy oil is not purchased by the U.S. it will most assuredly be happily purchased by Asia.

The only result would be the U.S. being even more dependent on undesirable sellers like Iran, Venezuela, Nigera, etc... It would be a monumental mistake to go that route, but I would not put it past Obama given some of geopolitical naivete I have seen him betray in speech.

I believe financial analysts are still too U.S. centric. It was not US consumption that set the prices for commodities over the past years, it was and will be Asian infrastructure building. Yes, I know the argument about their economies being driven by US consumption etc... The export numbers from China (staying aloft) and our fall into second place as China's biggest exporter tell the true story I believe. With or without the U.S., Asia will push forward long term and the prices I am most concerned about in the long run will be determined by them.

Prices of equities in the short term are certainly tied to perceptions about rates of growth, however the fundamentals of those stories will propel prices in the long term. Chindia growth falling from 9% to 5%, for example, is still year over year growth. Commodities demand long term does not look to me like it will be affected by US politics, except in the event that some of this anti free trade rhetoric comes to fruition, then the prices will only be higher than we are already projecting.

I know there are those that disagree and I welcome the opinions. I think duration of focus is a major factor that. Prices in the short term do not always reflect long term fundamentals. Your investment time horizon is paramount for how you view capital gain and risk/reward.

The rhetoric I am speaking of is the lack of specific plans to tackle the problems I have mentioned above. Heck, even an indication of understanding of the problems would be enough for me to become optimistic, but rather I have seen none of that yet; only broad based political rhetoric.

It is a shame because Obama is the type of personality who could do what was done in some rare instances throughout the 1900s and arguably what Reagan and sometimes Clinton were capable of - that is when there is Senate/House gridlock, appeal directly to the public in that charismatic fashion to educate the public on the problems and sacrifice required to force public will on the representative bodies to do the right thing for the long term health of the country. I haven't seen that in a long, long time.

I was watching his speech last night. And that was the first time I actually watch his speech. I have to admit his speech is very compelling and persuasive. After that, I immediately had a discussion with a democrat. I said he has given a lot of promise. He said he would cut taxes for 95% working class. He will lower the health premium if you are currently insured. he will give you the same health insurance as others have if you are not currently insured. He will create good jobs for America. Then I asked him "don't you think whether he offers too much? Where does he get the money?" He said all the politicians do the same thing. But he supported Obama.

I love to watch the movie "Matirx". I know before the things become better, there will be a dark stage. where are you now? Are we in the beginning of dark stage or the end of dark stage?

Many people believe capital market can be separated from politics. I don't think so. Closely watch the process will guide your betting.
If you don't realize Bush's ethanol's consequence, you won't realize the inflation in food.

I do not favor Repulicans as well. Especially I think current society is wrong. The society rewards the people who manipulate the numbers but the people actually doing the hard work are suffering. I don't think it will sustain. I used to ask my boss if CEO lower his compensation by $1millon, how many job positions can be saved in his company? I am not smart to figure the answer.

But I think Bill makes one valid point. If we look around the world, other countries have a bigger problem. I guess that makes US$ stronger. But I think without painful adjustment, US$ won't be stronger.

re: CY
Don't you wish you picked it up for $3 and change back in 2002?

ChickenPookie, there is no doubt that Pickens plan is self-serving, not only for the aquifer to which you refer (and which I was not aware of), but also to CLNE which is up about 60% since announcing his plan (Pelosi invested about 50 to 100K recently).

I do not object from people profiting from their proposal’s, just as I do not object from Bill wanting to monetize any blogger who thinks that he can benefit from Bill’s experience. They both have a lifetime of experience to share and do so willingly. We are after all a capitalistic society.

The most important issue is can the country benefit from Pickens’s proposal?

If not, please present your alternative plan.

P.S. I like McCain’s pick, a brassy pick.

All I can say regarding Bill Cara's Community Chat this morning....

Wow & amen.

music city man - I wish I had picked up some WMT back in the 80's, then again in the 90's... CY too.

If you set up a war in the schools and school boards, then you can't be surprised there is more spent on the war or complain about it.

As voters we are responsible for what happens in our schools and $4500 a year (on average state funding) isn't enough for 9 mos of really crappy babysitting much less teaching 38-40 kids.
All this proves is how disconnected most people are from education and it's true issues.
When someone with a Masters is ponying up for paper, pencils and educational materials we have a problem and extra money and high funding levels isn't one of them.

Assumptions based on the expenses or conditions in other nations are not accurate. It's apples and mangoes. Those based on actual conditons in the U.S. are what we need.

I'll bet right now that less than .5% of you have attended a school board meeting, which means sadly, most of you don't really know what you are talking about when it comes to your own schools. Don't feel bad or special, you are the norm (average).

Chickenpookie,
Exactly. I smell opportunity here. I've had "gold fever" like many and am way over-weighted in resource stocks. I think they will continue to do well, but I'm afraid my narrow focus will cause me to miss other opportunities. "Buy when others are afraid" I wish I was savvy enough to figure out which financial companies will weather the storm. These are the ones that will 10x your money in the next 5 years...
mcm

ST07, again well stated and excellent points.

Craig, thanks for the fish and chips tip in Goderich. Very nice place. It might be home sometime soon...

FNM- taking the 6.90 position off at 7.32...still holding the 7.36 position...

Speaking yesterday's GDP number. I am very confused now. It stated it is due to the lower US$ and rising export. It did not say what export. What does US export now?

anybody knows?

Telstar3d - I believe Pickes' plan will benefit the country as a whole, but his "piggyback" project also has the potential to cause harm. Depending on how much water is drawn from the aquifer, and sent down the path, under the power lines, the potential for impact to the region could be great.

Folks out in W.Texas get upset when they see good water being pumped from their aquifer and then sold. They feel it's a form of stealing. I loose respect for anyone who I find guilty of stealing, but not for their ideology on how to solve our energy problems.

re: recovery in financials
Perhaps another way to play it is to not worry about "picking" the financial crisis survivors, and just buying the sector in a dollar-cost averaging manner. i.e. keep your current 401k/403b holdings as is (bulk of mine are in broad market index funds) and add new contributions to the downtrodden sector- with a 5-10 year time horizon should this not do well??

Scrap paper is #1 US export? Also sounds to me like the US has exported inflation, perhaps.

might we see a green close today?

"In this morning's comment, its ironic you mentioned "slavers" as McCain's family were Mississippi plantation owners. I figure its a joke played upon the electorate by the Illuminati puppetmasters, having the first partial black candidate pitted against the great great grandson of slave owners."
Posted by: astral25 at August 29, 2008 10:54 AM

Astral25, that is indeed ironic, but I wouldn't give it much import because on the paternal side of my ancestors they were all Quakers, starting with my gr-grandfather back, and worked in the underground movement helping slaves to escape to Canada from the Preble Co., Ohio, area through Allen Co., Indiana and onward to Canada and other destinations. But, on the maternal side of my father's ancestry, there were plantation owners and I found a will that stated their beloved slave was left to their son.

I imagine there are many people with that kind of dual ancestral background.

Sounds great Rugger09, glad you enjoyed it!
So you're going to work the salt mines?
I have to admit it is an interesting story.
I love Ontario and had even more fun visiting when I found out my maternal side is all from the Eastern Provinces, but mainly Ontario and were involved in business and politics.

planning another (intraday) shot at HNU.to on a drop to the 14+ (CDN) level...

I don't remember the details, but I seem to recall having a discussion with people in Austria about the school system there and how different it is there from here.

My understanding is that they don't even have school boards and so their systems can run a bit leaner and be more responsive. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if a large chunk of money in North America is wasted on beaurocracy. It wouldn't surprise me if the beaurocrats have higher incomes than the teachers.

Maybe some of the europeans on this board can comment, am I misinformed? has it changed?

Out of the orders I placed last night, only the ABK sell short was triggered at 7.17. I thought that yesterday's short squeeze should reverse today, and it started out that way, but then ABK started rising again. Strange... I have just moved my sell short stop limit order on MER up by $1, stop $28, limit $27.80.

craig - I have nothing against teachers as a whole. The principal of the high school in my county drives an SUV provided by the county, along with fuel. He also has a fantastic health care plan in his compensation package, and makes well above the average pay for this county. The school parking lot contains the best looking cars of the county, aside from the county parking lots.

Most small businesses in this county cannot provide their employees with any form of health care, the best jobs are county gvmt. jobs, in terms of compensation packages.

I don't see the correlation of comparing apples to oranges when making comparisons with other countries, it seems to make sense.

This is not to say that there are not other forces at work here, just that my observations don't lead me to the conclusion that all teachers are under compensated when compared to the workforce as a whole.

Pookie, wasn’t aware of his h2o doings, but know there is a lot of controversy with respect to water rights.

If only we were all “Lilly White.”

Anyway, sorry your not here to enjoy the shrimp poke and ahi poke.

Just started reading today's discourse about Gustav gaining strength, and sold now at $11.15 the UAUA position I opened at $11.10. Now I just have the shares I purchsed at $12.30 and then $12.10.

"Out of the orders I placed last night, only the ABK sell short was triggered at 7.17. I thought that yesterday's short squeeze should reverse today, and it started out that way, but then ABK started rising again. Strange... "

Dave! Why do you think ABK is going to pull back! Wouldn't you consider the volume yesterday and the last week that institutional buying is happening??

re: Some interesting observations about "buy and hold" and timing...

1. If you bought CY 8 years ago and held it, you would have lost money.

2. If you would have bought it about 6 years ago, you would have 10x'd your money.

3. If you had bought it about 5 months ago, you would be up about 50%

Fascinating. All just observations from the 10 year chart. No wonder it's so easy to be obsessed with investing as a hobby.... Buy and hold??? Not me, not anymore...

If anyone wants to hear another theory on why oil isn't rising as expected on the storm news, my suspicion is due in part to an overabundance of natural gas.

"Folks out in W.Texas get upset when they see good water being pumped from their aquifer and then sold."

Wait 'till the neighboring states find out it's part of their acquifer also! The Supremes will adjudicate this one.

Grantmi: did I miss how the ABK fundamentals went from those heading for bankruptcy to those headed for increasing profitability? I think there was a major short covering in the past weeks, and the large volume of yesterday's move might very well be a large short covering as opposed to institutions buying. The institutions bought ABK a long time ago.

music city man - While you're at it, a few quick calculations on buy and hold will reveal the value of reinvesting dividends on dividend yielding stocks.

to the community.

Re: Palin as vp

As a conservative I was "scratching my head" as Bill mentioned.

Did a little info digging and honestly, I like the pick. Realize I am not a political genius but this woman is what America or even Canada is about.
Parents - teacher and secretary of school. Both coaches.
5 kids, one special needs (just born in April), oldest proudly serves the USA in the army (elisted, not officer).
Experience a concern, perhaps but mother 5 kids and run Alaska. Good enough for me.
Husband 20 marriage, he is a member of the steel union for an oil company. Pro, con there.
Awe

She stopped the 245 mil bridge to nowhere. Huge, eliminated the govenor private jet and now drives across the state to save the state money. (leadership).

Ok to my favorite: gun toting, NRA member, hunts, fishes, runs marathons and was a miss America (2ns place in Alaska) contestant.

Mid next week the polls will have a significant change. 6-8 points in either for Obama or McCain.

This lady has no ties to Washington as she has stopped pointless earmarks for her state. She is a role model foe young people of north America.

Took a step back and thought about it. I really like the pick.

Tell me another political figurehead that has an 80% approval rating besides her? Only person I could think of is maybe Texa rep Paul (I believe no one ever runs against him, I believe/assume that statement)

Have a look but I think she will be great and will have a positive impact to all issues facing the north American economy.

Thanks Dave... just trying to get your take.
i looked at the Shorts (http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=abk) and didn't think 1.7 days would take that long to cover!!

I think on the MBIA news... that this might be the bottom on these bond issues.

thanks

Does the workforce as a whole have Master's degrees? I doubt it.
That isn't the teacher's fault, nor is it the proper comparison, or we would compare CEO's to sanitation workers for an average.

THE comparison, in my opinion, is educational level.
There are too many variables otherwise.
I would imagine degrees in higher education are also required for most county jobs, not to mention they offer regular work, hence the better cars and people working harder for degrees to get those jobs.
Most jobs requiring Masters degrees pay way more than teachers earn.

Craig, I MIGHT accept an offer there. I have a few opportunities I am looking at. I've had a big change in focus in my life - I have a 5 month old little boy and the typical camp rotation life of a mining professional in the north is getting tough (I guess I like changing diapers, LOL). I'm starting to look for a job where I can come home every night, even if it could be perceived as a "step down" in my career.

It is a tough choice as my present employer and job are great. I know why life is a four letter word. HA!

WFMI- notice a buy alert was generated earlier this week, and performing well today in a down market...

Chickenpookie,
A good point re: dividend reinvesting. It's automatic dollar-cost averaging in a way- with someone elses money. I know you mentioned FRO with a hefty 20% dividend. How do you and other readers feel about pharmaceutical companies here? i.e. PFE as a long-term holding with it's 6.7% dividend? The baby-boomers are getting older and will need drugs (and not the kind they used in the 60's) ;)

correct. Not all teachers require a ma. Howervee the do need to obtain certificates that can take up to one year or more to get.

My sis-in-law teaches in Idaho. (low wage state). She teaches high school, loves it but hates the pay, what she has taken a while to realize is that re sheer fact of how economics play out. Summers off, winter and srpong break, about every holiday off imaginable. So we know a full time schedule is 2080 goes per year. Teachers typically work about 2/3rds of the year (generalized statement, some work more-summers).

Hours worked are hours rewarded, this is or is not fair but economically that is how it is. The exception of my six-in-law, ahevteaches English and has to grade papers which takes additional time vs a teacher who can grade multi choice with scantron. That is a hidden factor that may or maynot be fair.

Telestar3D,

Re: Alpine CEF's and FRO

Thanks, I'm looking for high dividend plays for my brokerage IRA. The Alpine CEF's do look like they are groping for a bottom. I think it was OG who mentioned them a few days ago. I'm buying small positions in AOD (18% yield) and FRO and will add more if they behave. Alpine CEF site: http://tinyurl.com/6awk73

Craig - If you're right, then when does the taxpayer get his pay raise and health care package? County employees here get theirs, and % taxes keep rising to boot. I say look more carefully at government and unions before requesting higher taxes. When and where does the call for higher taxes end? Taxes, you realize, are collected on a percentage basis, right?

For Canadians looking for CEF's with high yields, look at sdt.un and eit.un on Toronto

2nd,
what broker do you use to trade HNU.to?
I'm assuming Etrade...?

Averaging down into SKF

to whomever posted the link about cooperman's outlook...a quick look into the past shows that this guy has been bullish throughout this whole period:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/markets/cooperman_market_analysis.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007080816

http://www.cnbc.com/id/19417739

fidelity...which routes you from HNU.to to the symbol HZBNF when you're ready to trade...

music city man - One could look for defensive dividend payers, the real boring stuff like Procter (PG), MacDonalds (MCD), or Kraft (KFT), ie: consumer staples types, roll the div's back in, and probably do surprisingly well with much smaller risk on a long term horizon.

Pharma probably has some mileage, but there's the whole patent expiration issue to deal with, maybe generic pharma would be something interesting. Or perhaps biotech, which might soon be swallowed up by the big, desperate patent-expiring pharma.

I've been back eyeing LNG at this $3.50 level. The price has been held down the last couple days but not much volume available. I'm keeping an eye on the 3PM ET timeframe to see if the action looks like shorts trying to cover.

If someone needs to cover a chunk of shares there may not be enough volume to do so in an orderly fashion right now. Makes sense that given the modest correlation to the price of natgas that someone may not wan't to wait til Tuesday for a chance to cover.

I'm keeping an eye on volume - may be good for a bit of a run into the close.

Reference dividends, i.e. FRO

Keep in mind when the dividend is issued the stock will drop the amount of the dividend or in the case of FRO $3. You can check this on a chart that reflects dividend payments like google finance.

Then you have to consider where the global economy is going for the oil, iron ore and coal they ship. If things boom, no problem. If not, could be some erosion. There's some risk.

No position.

Maybe the taxpayer, who is also an employee, should stop complaining about unions and collectively negotiate their wages and benefits.

As proven, divided we fall.

I'm waiting to see if we can pick SKF after a dip under Daily RSI(7) < 30, hasn't failed as a trade yet.

TIVO worked well today

Auhead, it was OG who brought up Alpines cef’s yesterday.

I have become fed up with the yields available to investors who are seeking income. The current yields on bonds of 2 to 4.5% with inflation running at 5% are a joke. So I’ve come to the conclusion that I need to create a dividend portfolio that produces a real return.

My idea is to find 10-20 stocks that yield 5% or more with at least an 8% average yield and diversified over industries.

I have two major reservations: The first is going to require a mind-set shift on my part and it is this; if one has a 500K portfolio earning 8% it produces an income stream 40K, but if the initial investments were to fall by 20% I acquire a capital loss overall of 60K. This is what I’m not sure I could handle and perhaps writing options is where I need to look for solutions.

All numbers are hypothetical and are for concept/discussion purposes.

The second is with respect to timing which will have a direct affect of the portfolio’s capital appreciation/depreciation potential. I think we are in a bear market, but that the next 3-6 months may see a turning point where one wants to become longer of the market. However, maybe July will prove to be the lows and the time to buy is now. Since no one knows I am starting the build now.

My preference going forward is energy and base metal related stocks as I believe in the long-term fundamentals of the industries, but also be diversified a-crossed sectors.

Thanks for reading and all comments appreciate.

Grantmi, another reason I ventured into shorting ABK *now* (besides this being the day after a 40% short covering rally) is that the financials rallied this week on low volume, and such moves tend to be reversed. Moreover, the financials should have *tanked* after yesterday's GDP report, since the headline number is obviously unrealistic (as inflation is higher than 1.2% now) and does not imply that profitability of US corporations is increasing. At the same time, given such a headline number, the Fed will have more motivation to increase the interest rates. Maybe this number was cooked up on purpose to allow the Fed make a rate increase.

Did anyone notice a "sea change" in financials that might take them higher for the next few months?

Seamus - FRO - All good points which I am considering, I'm thinking the nearly $10 of dividend is compensation enough to keep me in the game even past distribution. I've watched FRO falling with oil, likely from demand destruction. Will keep my ears peeled for those fog horns... and a taut dockline on a sell limit.

mid-level experienced teachers in ontario,canada have a BA plus a 1 year B.ed. degree and will earn about $70,000 per year.

this includes 3 weeks at christmas, march break, and 8 weeks during the summer.

a school day in a typical pubilc school is about 5-6 hours in total.

extra-ciricular activity like sports and clubs shouldnt be considered towards their jobs as countless private citizens volunteer to coach sports and the like but can never demand more pay from their employers over it.

most teachers i know state the first few years are tough because of time spent developing lesson plans. this eases over time. and w/ the increase in teching assistants these days i find it very difficult for anyone to suggest teachers are underpaid.

they are a valuable resource and are paid well accordingly.

emotive arguments about how they teach children and thus deserve deity status are non-sensical,
a person teaching a 5 year old in pre-school earns $12 per hour and has a 3 year college diploma, while a teach teaching that child 1 year later in kindergarden earns about $30 per hour (mid-level expereince) w/ 5 years of university.

most teachers i ever had in school read off the textbook and were on strike 3 of my 5 years in highschool. (in ontario you used to do grade 13) currently teachers are demanding more pay increases above the %2-3 annual gaurantee over the next 5 years. at a time in ontario when manufacturing is dying and there are a glut of teachers without jobs this just seems out of touch.

to whomever posted the link about cooperman's outlook...a quick look into the past shows that this guy has been bullish throughout this whole period:

http://tiny.cc/4f5W3
http://www.cnbc.com/id/19417739

More TAX and spend? No thanks, taxes are already too high. I want to see more done in terms of efficiency, just like in the real world.

LNG in at $3.56

oil/NGas- (like everyone else), trying to understand the lack of movement...is it a short-term buying opportunity (at least in UNG/HNU.to), or is it a bull trap...they're treating TS (soon to be Hurricane) Gustav and TS Hanna like lightweight players...maybe (as CP points out) there is an overabundance of NGas, but can't say the same for oil, and what happened to NGas in 2005...just think prudent users of the commodities would be driving futures up a little more; why mess around with M Nature..

Bill,

I understand she went from city council to mayor of a town of only 9000 and then to a conservation group and finally governor.

The question I would like answered is, did she do something beneficial for each of those constituencies? (With an 80% approval rating she must have.)

If so, then she did something for a little group while Obama has done little for some large groups.

The one thing Obama offered which I like, is the tax breaks for keeping jobs and tax penalty for off-shoring. The trouble is no matter how sincere he may be, there is NO WAY congress will go along with it. They passed the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 which was a tax break for big business with no requirements the job creation would be here.

It's hard for me to be hopeful anymore. The best I can say is at least I did appreciate it when things were better. I've been fortunate to be born when I was and where I was.

Attention All Dividend Hunters:
since you've been talking it up about FRO and others, here's another shipping stock that just started trading: Global Ship Lease GSL Class A.
It merged recently with a blank check co. MAQ.U Marathon Acquisition.
George Soros has an 11.6% stake in this new co.

Just like SSW and DAC - containership owner with long term, fixed rate charters to one of the largest of cargo carriers.
GSL relies solely on this one customer for LT leases.
Latest SEC filing says they will file by Sept 4.with a dividend date.

They anticipate a $0.92 annual div. Current price 7.15

I opened a position @7.15

Downside: Yes, the global slowdown will impact the cargo carriers, but how much?

Norm,

Thanks for the bio on Palin — all good points in my book.

Teamonfuego:

I’m not here to defend Cooperman. The main point is that each segment had a small bit on bear market cycles and bull market cycles which I thought may be instructive to us all.

This man runs $6 Billion and can hold his own. I’ve been tracking his holdings for 5 years and he knows how to shift. The fact is no one knows the future of a stock, if portfolio manager did they would just put all their money in that one holding. Duh.

This man has class. I know for a fact about 7 or 10 years ago his portfolio did not perform well. He was so embarrassed by it that he basically sleeped under his desk for six months until he turned it around.

P.S. Sometimes I think that posting on a blog is a complete waste of time.

Best USO strangle is 93 puts + 94 calls. IMO it either makes some, or a medium amount of money, or a lot of money in case something catastrophic happens (which we really do not want to happen).

"i find it very difficult for anyone to suggest teachers are underpaid..."

In NorCal they ARE seriously underpaid. Believe it.

Grym Re: Gov. Palin as VP

I appreciate your points made on Palin today, as well as all others. Something I found today set off the bells; here's a link from my hometown paper about it:

http://tinyurl.com/5goshc

I would like to hear from the GOP and McCain, once the honeymoon is over, how this comports with GOP energy policy.

Have a great weekend.

ALOHA !!

I have been out of the loop thanks to MRSA! A nasty little bug that is resistant to modern antibiotics so they had to stuff me full of a 1950s sulfa drug called Bactrim. One downside to Bactrim ... I'm not suppose to be in the sun! How do you expect me to live in Hawaii and have a farm and not be in the sun?

One minor surgery later and I still can't talk for very long without hacking up my left lung! Type yes!

I can only guess I got this from Honolulu at either the gym, the Queens Hospital or the reef! Who knows? WOW ... you can;t even have a good time anymore without some SUPER BUG biting you in the ass! HA!!! What's the World coming to?

Chicken,

I'm no mouthpiece for any Teachers Union, but I'll tell you where the education money is going. In my neck of the woods ( Ontario, Canada ) it goes into bricks and mortar for Taj Mahal facilities that house over-staffed School Boards, new schools to replace old ones that surpass the facilities of 90% of the planet's schools - because local contractors have lobbied and used consultants to convince their free-spending friends that the halls are too narrow, heating systems too wasteful, or toilet stalls too small. Then there are the school bus operators with multi-million dollar contracts to shuttle our ever-obesifying children back and forth and further denegrating their health ( a boon to the medical-industrial establishment ). In every area of major need, be it education, health delivery, transportation etc. - where government is involved at some level - bureaucratic waste and corruption is the where the money goes - not the front-line workers or service providers as you clearly imply.

"P.S. Sometimes I think that posting on a blog is a complete waste of time.

Posted by: Telestar3d"

I know what you mean. I cut back and it even reduced my carbon footprint. I'm sure Al Gore is happy now.

Take of yourself kaimu, prayers and good wishes sent your way.

ALOHA!!

ON THE WORLD BANK
McCain and Obama say what they will on TV ... Inspire the masses to pure emotional titillation but when the speeches are over and votes are counted the World still runs on MONEY and the bankers OWN THE MONEY!

This is from the 71st United States Secretary Of The Treasury, Lawrence Summers back in 1991. It sums up the mentality of bankers and their quest to make global corporations need their product.

Summers left Harvard in 1991 to become the Chief Economist of the World Bank and in December of that year this memo came out.

DATE: December 12, 1991
TO: Distribution
FR: Lawrence H. Summers
Subject: GEP

'Dirty' Industries: Just between you and me, shouldn't the World Bank be encouraging MORE migration of the dirty industries to the LDCs [Least Developed Countries]? I can think of three reasons:

1) The measurements of the costs of health impairing pollution depends on the foregone earnings from increased morbidity and mortality. From this point of view a given amount of health impairing pollution should be done in the country with the lowest cost, which will be the country with the lowest wages. I think the economic logic behind dumping a load of toxic waste in the lowest wage country is impeccable and we should face up to that.

2) The costs of pollution are likely to be non-linear as the initial increments of pollution probably have very low cost. I've always thought that under-populated countries in Africa are vastly UNDER-polluted, their air quality is probably vastly inefficiently low compared to Los Angeles or Mexico City. Only the lamentable facts that so much pollution is generated by non-tradable industries (transport, electrical generation) and that the unit transport costs of solid waste are so high prevent world welfare enhancing trade in air pollution and waste.

3) The demand for a clean environment for aesthetic and health reasons is likely to have very high income elasticity. The concern over an agent that causes a one in a million change in the odds of prostate cancer is obviously going to be much higher in a country where people survive to get prostate cancer than in a country where under 5 mortality is 200 per thousand. Also, much of the concern over industrial atmosphere discharge is about visibility impairing particulates. These discharges may have very little direct health impact. Clearly trade in goods that embody aesthetic pollution concerns could be welfare enhancing. While production is mobile the consumption of pretty air is a non-tradable. END

Mr. Summers has claimed that this memo has been taken out of context. I don't know but someone at the top of the banking empire has to make such decisions. Its not going to be OBAMA ...

LNG - volume did not materialize - out w/ a couple cents gain - maybe next week

USO 93 puts @4.20, 94 calls @4.15.

Terry C,
You're right. In the largest city near us, that's where the money went and goes. I was going to write something similar, but I had a few phone calls. You are so on the money!

Posting on a blog may be a waste of time for those who don't wish to post on a blog. For those who do wish to, it isn't a waste of time.

KRY closes above the 130 support of the left side of the cup w/handle. Still a far distance from many shareholders. Only a buyout will cover their position. A permit will cover me and then some.

Oil & nat gas are both in a tight range on the daily chart. They're also in a squeeze (bollingers inside keltners) on the daily. just stand aside and wait to see which way they break out of the box. No need to try to be a hero and try to guess which way it's going to break (unless you want to setup a straddle).

Telestar3d,

I have similar goals and concerns. Writing puts and selling covered calls lowers your cost basis but does not protect from large price drops. I would still use stops.

A screen on Value Line for stocks with dividend yields over 8% resulted in 26 names. As expected, many are financial companies whose dividend is likely to be cut. Among those that seem to have a secure dividend, and seem to merit further investigation, are: BSET, DRE, ETP, FUN, SPH, AEG, GCI, HPT, PCU and NZT.

Comments are appreciated.

Sarah Palin,

Tough cookie! "Barracuda" was her basketball moniker! If she were a fictional character, her creator would be accused of having gone over-the-top. The biggest criticism of her as a gubernatorial candidate was..."No experience," yet she has added "governor" to her resume.
She does provide a foothold for the Dems, however, as Sen. Obama can now point out that "She has even less experience than I do!"
Campaign 2008 now has its Diva: Barack, John and Joe, will be fighting for headlines. This husky can hunt!

"KRY closes above the 130 support of the left side of the cup w/handle. Still a far distance from many shareholders. Only a buyout will cover their position. A permit will cover me and then some."

Trader.. do you really think Charting can predict any movement on KRY? The only thing that's going to satisfied holders is a buyout or the permit! JIMHO

kaimu- MRSA is endemic to many, if not most, hospitals in the US, so that would be the most likely source...another reason to wash your hands often, ask your MD/RN to wash theirs, and maybe remove your shoes/change clothing when returning home...

glad to have you back!

Telestar3d - thanks, 'ppreciate it.

2ndave - Yes, good call I think, I agree that waiting until Tues. morning to see how most of this shakes out is probably the prudent thing to do. I'm looking at UAUA as perhaps a 2-5 week trade until we get to an oil bottom.

Grym,

Palin sold the alaska governors plane on E-bay for 2.7 mil.

The proceeds went to the state of Alaska.

hmm.... what can we sell that the current administration has bought?
looks like an oil set-up. Natural resources will be on sale.

Katrina - yes that was the last time the SPR has oil released from it. If the administration was smart, they would release some that oil over the weekend so the markets don't go up.
That would fix the bleeding for 5-7 days.

Grantmi,
What charting will show us is that some that bought in the 1.30's will close out their positions to break even. Hence, the handle. Now that they are gone in theory, new buying can take place to propel an advance above 138+ to a technical move the size of the cup to 2.13. Technicans may play this stock for nothing other than than formation. But since the fundamentals for the stock look positive, that makes the case for the technical move as well; or higher as many would like. It will take awhile for this stock to move though since many, many want out at breakeven. Nothing more, nothing less.

TerryC - If I were implying that teachers, or frontline workers are overpaid, that was not my intention. My thinking parallels yours in terms of infrastructure, thanks for helping me to express the concept.

Waste is the problem, one hell of a lot of money is spent on primary education in the US and the results are dismal, from my perspective. If the entire organization were to take some initiatives and responsibilities, teachers would/could benefit as well as students and future economic prosperity. This, I believe, is inclusive of teachers unions, not necessarily teachers themselves. Resolution won't simply appear by throwing more money at the situation.

How many here interested in this subject have been following the reforms being implemented into the DC public school system? This conversation might benefit from an impartial analysis.

Oh, I forgot to apologize for hijacking the blog on the subject of public education today, this wasn't my intention.

stktrader....

thanks for your feedback.. makes sense! I kind of saw the same thing. My concern is the $1.50 to $2.00 range. HUGE volume sell off in those areas.

http://i35.tinypic.com/1196phv.jpg

peace out!

stktrader....

thanks for your feedback.. makes sense! I kind of saw the same thing. My concern is the $1.50 to $2.00 range. HUGE volume sell off in those areas.

http://i35.tinypic.com/1196phv.jpg

peace out!

ALOHA !!

2nd ... Thanks ... you mean I can't trust hospitals to be sanitary any more? Wow ...

ON OBAMA SPEECH
I did not see it since I do not have TV, but I am always amazed at how politicians who have been the cause of all our problems are always first in line to put themselves up on their own pedestal as the solution!

I understand that the surroundings for the speech was some sort of Greek Parthenon ... The Greeks invented "drama"! Maybe it was more like the Roman Colliseum? If there's anything that gets a US Voters attention more its a big spectacle! I assume this was HUGE in terms of prior spectacles! THE SHOW MUST GO ON! All the World is but a stage ...

Where's the CHANGE part and when will it happen?

Telestar3D - "P.S. Sometimes I think that posting on a blog is a complete waste of time."

Are you kidding me? Come on man, you know better!

Chicken,

I'm glad you broached the subject of education because it is obviously going to be a focus of spending in a Dem administration. Sensing the lack of financial transparency, waste, corruption etc. it is easy to see where the bricks & morter crowd ( builders & developers ) are going to shift to now that they have played out the housing market with the assistance of HB&B. At every level, the public must be vigilant in making sure that spending on health & education is productive and necessary. I would rather see public spending emphasis on worn out infrastructure. IMO, this will more quickly "pave the way" to the new industrial revolution that is needed to take us out of the economic death spiral we have put ourselves in. I suppose that is why CAT is on my watchlist.

ALOHA !!

Before you can have a teacher and students you need a classroom and a functioning school building! Let me tell you ... THE WASTE BEGINS THERE!

As a former contractor working on prime contracts for the fifth and seventh largest school districts in California I can assure you the US TAXPAYER is being taken to the cleaners! The union inspired political glad handing Miller-Davis Act has idiot union construction workers being paid over $110,000USD per year! Go to the website for public works wages and prepare to be shocked! We were paying union IBEW 302 journeymen $54USD per hour back in 2002(the last year I did a school project)! That $54 per hour did not include all the benefits we had to pay on top of that ... I even marked that labor up another 50% to 100% and still got jobs! The joke on my projects was that the School District Project Manager got paid less than my journeymen! Heck, for all I know IBEW journeymen got paid more than some of the engineers and architects! HA!!! Its been a gravy train for decades with unions and politicians! Where's OBAMA's comment on that issue! Its a frickin' huge issue because TAXPAYERS have to float bond issues to pay for schools! Back in 2002 we had multi-billion dollar bond issues for schools! They always got passed because it is "FOR THE CHILDREN"! HA ... HA !!! MY ASS BABY!!! ITS FOR THE UNIONS AND THE FAT CAT CONTRACTORS!!!! Its all about the VOTE for the Republicrats! Anyone here dare to vote against "THE CHILDREN"? What cowardly politician will stand up to the unions of America? I can only imagine how many union endorsements OBAMA has in his pocket! Anyone care to count?

And look what unions have done for the US auto industry... Put their workers out of work, and their children too. A double edged knife.

Interesting....all of the things Dr. Cosa assumes about teaching, some of it inaccurate, could apply to many of the Doctors I've seen for some time.
Just add specialists and PA's to the mix and it's all the same. Half the time I'm seeing a PA, and God forbid I need to see a specialist, they see the same client (not even an age difference or a year) but they charge multiples more than the GP seeing the same client. Go figure.....
I don't recall deifying anything, I find that extreme, and I don't know the details in Ontario.
More power to them if they make that much, but here in Washington State no such thing occurs.
And a school day starts at 8 AM and goes until 3PM. That would be 7 hours without any prep time or homework/test scoring, which simply doesn't happen. It's going to take hours more to do anything meaningful. TA's were added for the same reason doctors added PA's, too many patients, too few doctors. Same for students and teachers. I personally know quite a few teacher assistants. You give them FAR too much credit. They are not teachers and some of them are nice, well intentioned people, but they are not teachers nor are they remotely capable. Some are quite capable but they are paid little more than minimum wage.
The problem is we have too many students per teacher to give each student the time necessary.
My bet is it's the same for my doctor.

ALOHA !!

I have mentioned this before but for those who have not been around very long I did a school project back in 1989 for a new school called FAIRFIELD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, in Farifield ,CA, which is a suburb of SAN FRANCISCO ...

When we finished the LIBRARY building just prior to school opening I met with the librarian who informed me that there was not enough funds in the budget to buy books for the library since the construction costs have far exceeded the original contract. I recall that library was a pathetic attempt to produce a "Dali-esque" statement to sixth graders! Super expensive extruded aluminum light fixtures you'd see in the Smithsonian that we got a huge change order on for increasing the fixture sizes and in turn having to increase the support cables and beam reinforcements to meet Title 26 requirements ... blah, blah, blah ... So in the end contractors put some cash up for books and the library opened with about 1/4 of the bookshelves filled! CENTRAL PLANNING AT ITS BEST!

kaimu- it's not so much that hospitals aren't sanitary (although that comes into play also with under-educated/underpaid/unmotivated aides/housekeepers who don't know/don't care/don't bother)...inappropriate and/or over-use of anti-infectives has fostered the growth of highly resistant organisms that you will generally find multiplying happily where antibiotics are most often used...)

Kaimu - I haven't been inside a hospital room for over 30 years, I always wash my hands when returning from town, and I have a separate set of "fancy" shoes I wear for trips into town. I come down with a case of bronchitis every fall, which a saltwater sinus rinse regime has always taken care of. Otherwise, so far so good, I probably wouldn't make it out of the hospital if I were ever admitted...

Hospital - It's a HELL of a place to be sick in! My only real health insurance is good nutrition, exercise, and a deep skepticism about high-tech medicine... So far, so good!

Hi Everyone!

This is my first post so I will start by saying Thank You, Bill Cara and to all the folks posting. I have been visiting this Community for quite some time and enjoy the ideas generated by this site.

Money: Long QID.

Politics: Choice between two trial lawyers vs. a war hero and a hockey mom. Maybe a little simplified, this is how I think.

Social Responsiblity: Protect the right to Life (unborn and sick included), Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.

You want to break the glass ceiling for women there a way to have that. I guess there is a good chance for a woman President by 2012 if (not sooner). Hilary vs. Sarah in 2012.

Peace.

more good stuff from twiggs:

http://tinyurl.com/54qccl

(a) "Crude oil respected support at $110 and is headed for another test of resistance between $120 and $122 per barrel. Failure of support (and breakout from the trend channel) would warn of a primary down-trend — confirmed if key psycholgical support at $100 is penetrated. Breakout above $122 remains less likely — and would signal another test of $150. With the Shanghai index having fallen more than 60 percent from its 2007 peak, the probability of a slow-down of Chinese consumption is increasing — which would cause a primary down-trend in crude oil prices."

(b) "The Dow found support at 11300. Failure would indicate a test of primary support at 11000, while recovery above 11600 would signal continuation of the secondary rally. Volumes are typically low in the last week in August (thank you Kate for pointing this out), but this year have declined more than usual. Expect the consolidation to continue or edge slowly higher — before a sharp fall."

TomT- enjoyed your first post..quite a bit in a nutshell, and the minimalist approach always works well when blogging...;)

Kaimu:

Sorry to hear of your travails. Frankly, I think MRSA will be one of the near-future scourges. A friend of mine's kids came down with MRSA this past year. Doctor said to them 2 years from now they won't be able to help them.

Funny thing, western medicine looks to do it for you. Eastern medicine looks to improve your immune system so you can do it yourself.

Since it's the weekend, I'll digress:

In TCM (Traditional Chinese Medicine) There are basically 3 modalities:

Acupuncture

Herbs

Qi Gong (Yogic Exercises)

I listed them in order of weakest to strongest. Also, in order of lowest to highest skilled practitioners.

If you'll notice the order also goes from most allopathic to least allopathic.

Acupuncture-someone sticks YOU with needles (a foreign object)

Herbs-herbs (a foreign substance) are consumed by YOU

Qi Gong-through the guidance of another YOU do the exercises

Qi Gong is the most advanced form of treatment in TCM and there are very few adept at using it for this purpose.

For all intents and purposes, that which you can do for yourself, makes you stronger.

Whereas anti-biotics have created a "health bubble" if you will, since there inception, soon they will be useless. Human's immune systems have weakened because they have not had to overcome the illnesses of the pre-antibiotic generations. It could be the gains of the past century will be lost in the next-just like Bill's (or Yin/Yang's) ecclesiastical cycles.

TomT - Welcome to Bill's blog, where minds meet to consult with and learn from one another. A good place to be, IMO...

On teachers/schools:
Disclosure - I tried it once as a substitute, and it was obviously not in anyone's interest that I continue in that field.
Many of my friends are teachers.
Once they're well established in the public education system, teachers seem to be paid quite well, with automatic pay increases each year. They seem to have excellent health insurance, and defined benefit pension plans that are now rare in the private sector. I think their role in our society is extremely important, but as with most public employees there's the difficult issue of how much is the correct pay. As far as I can see, the only way to determine the correct price for anything is a free market, but whenever I propose privatizing the schools and advocate the voucher system I get hooted down. In addition, its almost impossible to get rid of incompetents once they've got tenure, yet they're a real burden on the process of education. I have a friend who's a principal who's only solution was to shuffle some deadbeats out of his school to other schools in the district.
All the above also applies to firefighters, police and prison guards (by far the most powerful group in California).

It's Friday--do you know if your bank failed?

http://tinyurl.com/6xojwt

TomT, welcome. Where do you live? I too am long QID, SKF, and SRS. Its unusual for me to hold shorts over the weekend. My luck the Fed will fix things this weekend!
Peace from North Puget Sound

I read the recent news about ABK today and I didn't see anything that could stop the trend of ABK losing money and most likely going out of business. However, in the spirit of taking some profits off the table, I just placed a buy to cover limit order at $6.16 for half of the shares I shorted at $7.16, with the goal of letting the other half ride down to $1.

As for MER that I shorted today at $28, I'll wait until it goes down to $25 and will see how the stock deals with that support level.

Tensions flare as Russian threaten to use Oil as weapon against the West....

http://tinyurl.com/6965c8

Hanna looks like it's heading towards all the beautiful Caribbean islands and possibly the Bahamas.

[Bill Cara note:

TS Hanna will cut a swath through the southern Bahamas, likely on a SSE path toward Cuba. Boats in Georgetown in the southern Exumas (150 miles south of Nassau) will be affected. Nassau will be spared--likely because I won't be there. :-)

The Georgetown harbour is one of my favorites. It's aka Chicken Harbour, where hundreds of boats moor for the winter. Skippers with big dreams of sailing the Caribbean are chicken to take their boats out of the beautiful protected Exumas into the open ocean water they would face in their journey further south. Most of them learned during their Gulf Stream crossing from Florida to The Bahamas that ocean sailing is quite different from motoring down the east coast inland Inter Continental Waterway or lake sailing at home. Then again, Georgetown in the winter is party town, and not a bad place to spend a winter. I'd recommend it to anyone who loves boating. And, here's to the safety of those who are there next week.

http://tinyurl.com/5jvtxq

You will find photos of Georgetown here along with many other gorgeous places I have visited in The Bahamas.

http://tinyurl.com/63xla6

This is one of my favorite places--in the Berries only about 30 miles north of Nassau. Fly in and walk about 100 steps to one of the truly beautiful beaches of The Bahamas. The best photo is at Great Harbour Cay, Airport to Great Stirrup Cay

http://tinyurl.com/5bsy2v
http://tinyurl.com/5whowx

Ask any boater who has sailed most of The Bahamas and they'll put this place #1 or #2. It's Staniel Cay, in the Exumas mid-way between Georgetown and Nassau--and is my favorite.

http://tinyurl.com/6zjfxk
http://tinyurl.com/5qynbc

Living in The Bahamas is living! ]

Norm & kp84,

Thanks for your additions to Palin's resume.

I see her choice as a great political move —
• anchor the conservatives (who have been doubtful)
• reach for the Hillary voters (many feel slighted)
• possibly pick up younger voters

Her lack of international experience (same for Obama) may be a plus. G.H.W. Bush had a ton of it and largely ignored domestic issues haunting us now.

I must say she does raise my all but dead interest in this election.

I see character as more than any other single attribute. I would respect an honest, "I don't know, but I'll find out."

Roosevelt and Churchill's private correspondence showed they agreed people will forgive an honest misjudgment, openly admitted, but a lie exposed will never be forgotten.

Nixon proved it to be true.

Bill,

Only four U.S. Generals have received a 5-star rank, so far you've got eight 5-star rankings. I see one is from John Murphy whose advice I've always found important.

No question: I have to read this book!

[Bill Cara note:

I'd be surprised if your John Murphy will be buying the book, although I should send him a copy because he truly is an accomplished chartist. I use StockCharts every day. The Amazon reviewer, I believe is Dr. John Murphy who is a Beverley Hills CA physician, a person who, while practising near affluent Rodeo Drive and Wilshire Blvd, very much cares about social equity and lifting up those people in our midst who need that extra help.

As for the book, I josh that if, as and when I see a rating less than 5.0, I'll know I'm being invaded by the enemy. :-) Actually, I approached the book like I do anything in life--I put everything I had into it. It's the best I could do in the time I had. It merely took 30 years to write. I got a lot of help along the way in those 30 years. Now, I can look at most situations in the market, and discuss them in real time with much confidence, being right I think as much as is humanly possible, which means of course that I am wrong a lot. The Lessons I give are both about my life but also about every aspect of markets that I think is important to the average person. I don't get into the most esoteric financially engineered products because I don't really understand them, which only recently I discovered is not surprising in that obviously neither does the decision-makers at HB&B, which is their undoing.]

Change is painful, but the status quo is badly broken.

http://tinyurl.com/5ruhr4

Wow. After reading some of the remarks on this thread about McCain's choice for running mate I better understand how CNBC has been successful attracting viewers of a certain age and temperament using attractive, vacuous women.

McCain's choice of Palin is cynical in the extreme, will prove disastrous in time, and demonstrates incontrovertibly that he is unfit to lead.

But at least he's secured the CNBC vote.

“. . . eliminated the governor private jet and now drives across the state to save the state money.”

Posted by: norm at August 29, 2008 1:59 PM

Just to correct—you can’t drive “across the state”. You have to fly to many destinations as there isn’t a road from here to there. Alaska’s still a frontier. Good example is Anchorage to Bethel in the Western part of the state. No roads. If you tried to walk up and around the mountains, rivers etc., it may take you 3-4 months if you were in shape.

Suspect the Governor contracts with a bush pilot to visit or uses another state agency plane like the Alaskan State Troopers.

Today's FT also wonders if S. Ossetia was a Cheney provocation?

Considering "superannuated cold warriors and neo-conservatives ... salivating over the notion of a new cold war with Russia", Martin Wolf notes "If I were much more cynical than I am, I would guess that someone advised Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian President, to attack the separatist enclaves for precisely this reason. I might also imagine that this was seen as a way to put John McCain in the White House. But, I must not imagine such things, must I?"

kaimu - Thank you for commenting on the subject of the US school system. With your permission, I would like to forward your words of wisdom for review by the elected supervisors of my county.

Thanks,

So Jock,

Are you saying you're not paranoid, and anybody who thinks you are is out to get you? :-)

If anybody wants to read about a new school Taj Mahal fiasco, search the web on Newton High School in Newton, MA.

Over $200 million dollars.

number2son - I agree with most of your observations except McCain's choice of Palin. I don't believe he even knew Palin prior to a week ago, and I don't believe republicans think they have any chance of winning this presidential election.

Were you watching McCain's face and body language during the event? I picked up on some subtle tells.

Coxe on the dollar - http://tinyurl.com/2htvq3

Russia's bellicosity weakens the Euro, and thus strengthens the dollar. This means the dollar will not lower as Coxe had expected, and the FED will not need to raise interest rates to defend the dollar. With continued low dollar interest rates, inflation has become more likely.

Coxe retains his high allocation to gold stocks, since two of the three "pillars" supporting gold are still in tact:

- when confidence is shaky in the financial system (Coxe believes Ben&Hank's move on 7/15 merely postponed banks' problems)

- when commodity prices rise.

So, Coxe comes out where Bill does - the dollar and gold will rise together !

PS: Nemo, Cheney plays ultra-hardball politics; the dems are too soppy and clueless to follow, much less counteract, his moves ...

Jock - If I may offer my explanation; assuming Cheney (the administration) was involved in a Georgian provocation, my feeling is this was an attempt at finishing up some last-minute business prior to leaving office.

Obama- this has got to be the most exciting moment in his life, maybe more so than any time in the white house, should that come to pass...

reenzo- re oil/airlines...what do you think- were capped oil/NGas prices and a spike in airlines an attempt to draw bets in to the opposite trades? i can sense a little premature celebrating on the part of anyone lured in (and maybe they'll be right), but 72 hours is a long time, and still glad to be on the sidelines...

Pookie -

The business they're finishing up is trying to ensure McCain's election!

Jock - Do you really believe US taxpayers won't vote for "change" and the citizens aren't FED-UP with the effects of strife wrought upon the world through the policies of the administration?

The republican party doesn't have a hope or a prayer of winning the election in my view, republicans are going to need a much better strategy and more than a gaggle of evangelicals...

Either way, the difference will be slight to non-existent, in comparison with my personal definition of what change really entails.

I doubt that the Republicans want to win the next election - would you want to have to deal with the mess they've made?
I dislike both major parties but will probably vote for Obama because the nature of the Supreme Court will likely be determined over the next 4 years.

I agree with Bill regarding Obama. The main fault the Republicans find w/ Obama's speech, is that it was given by a Democrat. Its obvious the Republicans would have criticized the speech even if it had been delivered by Abraham Lincoln himself.

I think what both parties forget is that the "working man" depends on "business" and "business" in turn depends on the "working man". In the past, greedy unions forced businesses such at auto makers, steel companys to fork over so much of the gravy that the companys found it difficult to compete with global competition. As a result, jobs got shipped overseas and the "working man" ended up as a burger flipper or WalMart greeter.
Now we see the reverse, the HB&Bs and soul-less corporations are hogging the gravy. The U.S. standard of living is no longer near the top in the world, wages are falling, and opportunities are fading.

Henry Ford had it about right. He knew it made sense to share the prosperity and to pay his workers high enough wages for them to be able to buy the products he produced.It was part of his business strategy. It was good for them, and it was good for him.
If the "working man"'s wallet is empty, he isn't going to be able to buy ipods, computers, insurance, American autos and the like.
"Business" and the "working man" need each other and these politicians need to start working on getting the balance right between the two camps.

All great rulers, democratically elected or not, know you need to keep the masses happy. I don't think the masses are not happy now.

That last sentence should read "I don't think the masses are happy now. sorry for the error

Regard to US$ strength, I just don't understand why foreign countries have put a lot of faith on US$. It is reported that China's central bank is buy US$. Do they realize eventually these US$ will be much lower. Who is going to pay the bill? I don't know with $14trillion debt, what is the sales quality. They just want temporarily to boost their employment and lure your customer to buy. don't care about whether your customer can pay or not.

It is insane!

Kaimu:

Get better soon! give your body extra rest, that bug can hit hard later if you don't give your body time to recover. It typically hits people who have been pushing themselves a little too hard.

So make sure to give yourself that extra heal time otherwise it comes back with a harder blow later.

I think the simple answer for China's purchase of dollars and financing the economy is 'trade off'. They trade economic growth and JOBS in their country and loan us money to buy what they make. Yes, they lose money on the currency but make it up in income and societal stability.

Nemo: on Qi Gong. I agree with your statements. But when in the middle of certain types of sickness, especially an active bacterial one, you have to be extra careful of how ones performs Qi-Gong, and only with an expert at that point, since in opening up the internal channels, it also opens up the channels for the bug to go deeper, if you are not careful.

As a Qi Gong teacher I had to add that warning.

my take on gold TA

[IMG]http://i35.tinypic.com/18dk03.jpg[/IMG]

dr.cosa - Nice chart, but I had to remove the [img]s in order to make it work.

I am looking forward to Sept for trading with the "big guys" instead of the "Summer help". All we have to do is to figure out on which stocks their bonuses will be made 8).

MRSA: Stay away from these new antibacterial products (antibacterial dish soaps, hand soaps, etc.) and the almost automatic use of antibiotics for illnesses they have no affect on like viruses and simple things like ear infections which usually resolve on their own.

I think the use of antibiotics in animal husbandry is coming back to haunt us as these bacteria have some survival and then develop (evolve) resistance to the antibiotics used routinely in feedlots and other situations where animals are heavily stocked. The same thing happens with pesticides used in monoculture without rotation.

Pookie -

All the Republicans have to do is talk up with a "maverick" McCain is (NOT!) and make sure voters are frightened at election time. If Georgia isn't enough, maybe Cheney greenlights an Israeli airstrike against Iran.

Republicans hold the cards, and won't hold back from playing them. If nothing else works, an old boy passes money to an old boy who hires a crew to take out Obama. (BTW, I'd love to be wrong on all this!)

Boy Jock, I'm cynical but you give cynical a new wrinkle!

I think a lot of people are wise to the fear mongering and I also give women more credit than to simply vote for a person they don't have any idea of simply because she a woman.

That the right leaning men on the list like the looks of Sarah Palin isn't a surprise, but men aren't thinking logically about how defensive, unknown and risky the choice is, they're thinking of something else entirely. Right guys? I understand, I have a lot of friends that would enjoy a wife that hunts, fishes, and enjoy's the outdoors like they do.....and is pretty attractive.

All good until you cross her (or her sister)and she calls the State Police to get you fired.....fires the guy who won't fire you, and get's herself into an investigation about abuse of power.

Or you find out she was one of the pitchfork people for Buchanan and joined AFTER he made his stunning biggoted speech that ended his Presidential bid.

Then she starts to lose some shine.

I thought McCain already had the NRA men and republican women, which is who this is going to target. Upon examination Clinton women will be insulted and her negatives will soon come to haunt her. I don't see moose burgers or sporting a rifle as a big bridge in common with Clinton women. (I have a front row seat on this). But the men that already would vote McCain will love her.

Craig - My motto is:

"I TRY to be cynical, but I can't keep UP!"

Reality keeps getting ahead of me ...

In the paper today.
A cartoon of Obama at the podium with UNITY, HOPE and CHANGE above him. In the audiance is a man with a sign around his neck that says VOTERS. His sign reads DETAILS.
This is why the voter polls are so close. There are too many people on the fence, Democrat and Republican, waiting for the debates to hear the details. And details they will get this election. Without clear details on how each candidate plans on spending our money McCain nor Obama can win. It is a toss up in my opinion at this point. I still wonder why Obama, clearly a better speaker, does not want to debate McCain. Obama set the debates to three ONLY. I'm a fence sitter for now though.

To be brutally honest, our former Comptroller General (drawing a blank today, works for Peterson Foundation now) was on TV the other day and said NEITHER Obama nor McCain's plan added up as is or addressed the long term deficit issues.

All things being equal I'm for the one that gives the little guy a break and turns his/her attention to the top 5% who benefit most from hamster wheel maintenance, which makes most everyone here safe. Aren't you glad you're Canadian or (insert Nationality here) now? LOL!

Politics:

Freewill... we all see how well the market is jiggered

even with freewill, it's easy to manipulate large cultures, like bison off the cliff, driven by hunters...

The US political system is pretty much 100 % jiggered right now... So enjoy the show, but it is a show, and the choices are such, it isn't a choice...

so we can debate/discuss politics all we want, but it just adds additional fuel to this show.

which means the true choice is here rooted in a bigger better question: what difference are you making in your personal life right now... that is the vote that truly overrides the jiggering and the path out of the herd.

peace

If 80% think we are going the wrong direction, then the polls indicating 45/45 are clearly wrong. If Obama can fill Mile High Stadium and McCain struggles to fill 10,000 seats in St. Paul, then the polls indicating 45/45 or the people pushing them are biased or wrong.

I'm not getting any indication from anyone I know that they are split or waiting for debates.
Not that they aren't interested or that debates couldn't change things, but I think the divergence between polls and actual butts in seats clearly favors butts in seats as the actual indicator. I think Bill is right, you can pretty much start looking for entries into the Russell 2000.

Unless Jock is really behind.....the drag of it is, I'm not far behind him....

"Aren't you glad you're Canadian or (insert Nationality here) now?"

Oh, we Canucks are about to go to our own polls too :)

Intriguing thing is, it seems US election causes more interest and heated debates than our own. Maybe it'll change once actual campaign is underway.

Ugh...sorry to hear that Vadym. I pretty much just turn off the tele until November 6th or so as it takes a couple days to stop playing the political propaganda.

If the majority of the people want actual change and they agree to vote for the same third party candidate actual change would happen.

I think that despite what people say they want, they actually want to feel like they're voting for a winning candidate--to be with all the other sheep. No wonder democracy is so screwy!

[Bill Cara note:

There is something to be said for the two party, fixed period system. In Canada, Itlay, France etc, there are many minority governments where absolutely nothing is accomplished post-election, where after much bickering and deceitful backroom deals go down there is a new election called anyway. I like the US system, but I also think that any independent candidate who is recognized by the voters as a credible person with significant support on election day ought to be the first candidates for appointment to cabinet positions. That would counter influence of the backroom puppetmasters. For example, if Dr Ron Paul were able to achieve a certain number of votes as an independent (I know; he would almost certainly not run as an independent), then he should be a given for a cabinet position of his choosing. Would not the Republicans or Democrats not look good appointing Ron to Treasury Secretary (with the task of ridding America of the Fed!)? What has to happen, beyond a revolution of values, is for the voters to have a say in the Admin. For at least 75 years, the public has lost its franchise in America. That is counter to the beliefs and desires of the people who wrote the Constitution.]

Casey,

I wasn't advocating a regimen for a specific situation, just the general hierachy of discipline potencies.

I've discovered how the republican party chose their VP running mate; simply by placing an add in the National Enquirer:

Wanted: Woman who likes to hunt and fish, must have boat and motor. Send photo of boat and motor to: John McCain, republican presidential nominee.

MOVIE REVIEW********* FROZEN RIVER*******

I saw Frozen River tonight and thought they absolutely blew what should have been an awesome movie. It started off great and developed nicely, and appeared to be building toward a very tragc ending, which the main character deserved. For awhile I thought it just might be the bleakest piece of American drama I'd ever seen. The main character was initially morally compasionable, but by turning to crime with gusto she compromised herself and therefore deserved the karmic comeuppance that semed all but inevitable.

There were several possible satisfying conclusions they could have used. They could have shown her falling through the ice with the Indian girl while trying to escape the law. They could have had her shoot the trooper and then make an escape during which she fell through the ice alone, or was shot dead by the tooper. But no. How did the move end? Nothing happened. Problem is, all of the suspensful buildup left the audience feeling quite unsatisfied at the pedestrian, boring conclusion. Miroring that letdown was the fate of her son, who, when caught in a credit card fraud, was, instead of being hauled off to juvie, was simply made to apologize and was let off. The creators of this disaster are the ones who ought to apologize, but I won't let them off wth just a warning. They asolutely squandered what could have been the bleakest, darkest piece of film property ever, and let down the audience, their characters, and themselves.

observations on oil/NGas/gasoline prices in the wake of Katrina and Rita:

http://tinyurl.com/6htjf8

"Back in 2005, spot oil prices only moved 7% on Katrina and 3% with Rita -- and in both cases ended lower in less than 2 weeks, said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics.
"The story was much different for refined products and natural gas," he said. Gasoline prices shot up almost 60% on Katrina and didn't return to the pre-hurricane level for almost six weeks, he said. Natural gas was up 45% from the pre-storm level after Rita hit, and it took nine weeks for prices to drop back, Williams said."

2nd_ave: that bodes well for VLO, assuming its refineries are really deep inland, as someone mentioned on this blog a while ago. I still have 8% of my portfolio in VLO.

shark- thanks for the heads up on Frozen River...two of the most engrossing films i've seen ruined by misguided endings: The Pledge (directed by Sean Penn, 2001) and Limbo (directed by John Sayles, 1999)...

I have a feeling that now we have a "God-given" chance to short financials again, for those who missed the June-July collapse. Both John Mauldin and John Hussman have observed a continual widening of the credit spreads in the recent weeks, with corporate bond spreads now being higher than at the worst point of the 2002 recession. Combining that with the last week's rally on low volume, I think we have a perfect recipe for opening a short position. I already have a reasonable SKF position and shorts on ABK and MER, as well as put options on LEH and MER. I have also just placed a tight sell short stop limit order for FNM.

I was looking earlier for a way to figure out when one should STOP shorting the financials, for if I couldn't figure that out ahead of time, the shorting game would be very dangerous as eventually I'll lose everything if I persist in shorting them past the real bottom. Now, following the weekend piece by John Mauldin, I think that the credit spreads are a very good indicator of the underlying fundamentals. After all, the bond traders are professionals who know the truth, while the stock market has much more noise (in order to continually pump and dump shares on moms&pops).

Does anyone feel the same way about shorting financials now? Is anyone reducing his/her short position or even going long financials now?

David- personally, i have a hard time seeing NGas/gasoline prices going down with Gustav upgraded to Cat4...so i'm left wondering why UNG dropped/airlines failed to drop on Friday...did i look a gift horse in the mouth, or sidestep a trap?

David- here's what a few well-known value managers have done with their holdings in C, ABK, MER, FNM, FRE:

http://tinyurl.com/5gre8o

[Bill Cara note:

Thank you 2nd for this link because the opening paragraph serves my point in the previous WIR that the Prudent Man Rule has NOT been practised by these so-called professional managers and they are afraid, or ought to be, that Moms & Pops whose wealth they've squandered are about to sue their asses.

""The sudden downside moves are something I've never seen before" and are difficult "to research and predict," says Mr. Rogers, Ariel's chairman. According to fund tracker Morningstar Inc., large-stock value funds are down 11.8% overall this year, worse than the market. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index's total return is off 10.2%."

Do you recall after C took a nosedive in 3Q07 that I dropped the Citigroup from the Cara 100 in November. The stock was then 34 and I was embarrassed that I had left Citigroup in the Cara 100 so long. The stock later plunged to 14.01 this July and is now just 18.99 after getting a new CEO, some restructuring, mega staff terminations, and mega billions of new capital. C is still trading much closer to its 52-week low than to the 52- high ($49.00), and worse, it's trading back to its prices of 1997.

I think Mister Rogers ought to go back to the Neighborhood; it's obvious he can't play with adults. His quoted remark ought to be evidence of that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mister_Rogers'_Neighborhood ]

"Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said they were surprised at how quickly Gustav gained strength as it slammed into Cuba's tobacco-growing western tip. It went from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in about 24 hours, and was likely to become a Category 5 — with sustained winds of 156 mph or more — by Sunday."

http://tinyurl.com/67spee

sometimes it's appropriate to turn off the investment chatter and start to worry about homes and lives...best wishes to those with family and friends along the gulf..

Think McCain's Palin pick isn't brilliant; check out the comments here.

http://tinyurl.com/5nm4tr

ALOHA !!

Thanks for the antibiotic info ... I am not one who likes any meds ... be they pain or antibiotics. I think I took my last penicillin back in the early 1980s and since then I had some Cipro in 2003. I'm the same way with pain meds ... I'd rather FEEL THE PAIN!

I do believe "stress" contributes to most of America's ills and it certainly is no stranger to me! That's life though ...

ALOHA !!

I think I found a glimpse into future NEWS!!! Lots of talk here about the sexuality content and the dumming down on news and financial TV these days. Take a look at this and we can see where this is all going!

Link: http://tinyurl.com/5qchv3

Obviously this is a clip from the movie "Idiocracy"! Anyone here see that movie yet? I guess some producers in Hollywood visualize a "dummer" America in the future! A Democracy of idiots! I do believe the average US Voter intelligence level has decreased since our Nation was first founded. I mean if you are a voter and all you want is for the government to take care of you then there isn't a whole lot you need to know except how to read and where to vote! I will be honest and say that in my "Father Knows Best" type family I grew up in my Mother always voted whatever way my Father did. If you work for the US government in any capacity either as a mail man or a clerk at the court house do you ever not vote Democrat? Does the membership of the AFL-CIO ever vote Republican? Does anyone in Berkeley, CA ever vote Republican? Is there anyone in Crawford, TX voting for OBAMA? A lot of "no-brainers" out there in VOTINGLAND!

According to the movie this is why Americans are becoming dummer ...
Link: http://tinyurl.com/552hzf

Perhaps this is where we are now ...
Link: http://tinyurl.com/5vg7jg

Bill Cara said:

"For example, if Dr Ron Paul were able to achieve a certain number of votes as an independent (I know; he would almost certainly not run as an independent), then he should be a given for a cabinet position of his choosing."

Given that premise, Ross Perot would have been named Sec. of Treasury back in '92. Wouldn't it be interesting to see how much fat would have been trimmed from the national budget if that would have happened.

As nice as it is to imagine Ron Paul being Sec. of Treasury, it's likely that none of his maverick ideas would get passed through Congress during his tenure.

But then, Wall Street likes gridlock so it would probably be beneficial nonetheless.

ToddinFL,

Perot — Yes! The only guy to ever run for prez who really knew what the economic score was. Not pretty, Not a pleasant voice. The media therefore never "blessed" him.

I remember wondering how the Iran hostage situation might have turned out with him instead of Carter.

Perot got my vote and I got Slick Willie. Have not voted "for" anyone since.

Congress will be a drag regardless of who is in the White House.

David,

I have had several good gains in SKF over the past year. The extreme volatility has picked off my stops often, but I believe this issue will be unresolved for at least another year.

UNLESS — Government intervention, the real wild card, rescues the private firms like they did with the Fannies.

The temporary suspension of shorting really caught me off guard. This past week the negative financial news was heavy, yet financials didn't tank. (More evidence of Bill's manipulation views, IMO.)

See: Is market "fix" tomorrow's crisis? Jon Markman, 7-31-08

http://tiny.cc/HA6Dh

Good morning everyone.

Looks like the the barriers installed by the powers-that-be against the most effective, least invasive, and least expensive way to destroy pathogenic viruses and bacteria may slowly be coming down. All of you should be aware of what has been maliciously kept from humanity for at least 3 or 4 generations now. And it represents a great opportunity for investment. Follow the Patents...

http://tinyurl.com/5hvufs

(As usual, no credit is given to the pioneers of this technology who have literally fought and died to bring it to you over those past 3 or 4 generations. I have no problem in directing you toward the founding father; Royal Rife.)

An op-ed in today's NY Times that will be of interest to those discussing education issues:

http://tinyurl.com/64lmlk

A good quote:

"Michelle Obama spoke (at the convention) with passion and authenticity about a nation that once dedicated itself to public institutions that equalized the life chances of all children, rather than reproducing class disparities. This fundamental value is part of the 'thread that runs through all our hearts,' she said.

"But how will the Democrats return us to this promised land?"

================================================

Well, I say that that least they will give it an honest try. Which is much more than I could say of the last eight years of Bush, and much more than we have been offered by our libertarian friends.

I am disappointed that our American market will be closed tomorrow, so it will be difficult for us to go long or short the airlines and oil companies based on the storm. By the time Tuesday morning comes, it will be all over and so may be the trade.

Regarding the Palin pick: I'm not saying she's good or bad. She does conform perfectly to the Bush/Cheney model of surrounding themselves with what I say with apologies are the 2nd and 3rd string players. Alberto Gonzalez. Condy Rice. Harriet Meyer.

Palin has that house-wifey Frances McDormand kind of "gee-whiz" charm, but in truth she's not qualified for the job. Some may counter that neither is Obama. I really don't know, but there's a cynicism to the Palin pick, it smacks of a "maneuver" that I HOPE American women of the left and center are bright enough to pick up on. But somehow I doubt it.

In The Observer today the UK PM escalates the fear I referred to in Thursday's Discourse that Russia has plans to cut oil and gas flows to Europe in the row over Georgia.

As cited in the BBC on line ("UK warns over 'Russia aggression'"), "Mr Brown also said there was a need to "rapidly build relationships with other producers of oil and gas".

What good fortune might this entail for the Cara 100 components, SU and ECA? I picked up short-term positions on Friday, even though SU was weakening. I understand now that it could have been due to the Obama factor and the DNC broadsides against dirty oil. But, I thought that Gustav might re-focus traders and that the Russian threat would not hurt either, before energy resumes its downward slope once again.

A fly in the soup is that tomorrow is a no-trading day. By Tuesday, following the summit of European heads of state to discuss the South Ossetia crisis, the ruskies could be celebrating rapprochment with Mr. Brown in the Westminster Pub & Grille and Gustav may be gone and forgotten.

Sharkster:

I think you've got a wash on experience between Palin and Obama. Having said that, what exactly did Obama do in the Senate during his short tenure? Hey, he gives great speeches, but where are the actions? Are we just buying the sales pitch? I suppose you could make the argument that Reagan was just a performer, but he did have significant (or more significant than Obama) gubernatorial experience.

Palin was a state Chief Executive, and did go after the corrupt (?) power base there. Shot down the "Bridge to nowhere"; is in favor of drilling; does not come from a wealthy family; is married to a union guy. Now, how would she do on international issues, have no idea.

Frankly, and to be perjorative, I prefer her over Biden the Bloviator, and forgive my cynicism about Obama, but beyond the hard questions, something just doesn't sit right with me about him.

Summer

No doubt there will be a lot of political discourse over the next 9-10 weeks. However, with Labor Day being the unofficial end of summer with school starting, market pros back from the Hamptons, weather changing, etc., thought it might be worthwhile to look back at the past few months.

I vividly recall a summer end of day from a sand dune bluff looking west over Lake Michigan. With the lake at this point about 75-80 miles wide, you can’t see the other side beyond the horizon. There was a little pinkish orange in the sunset sky surrounded by menacing clouds. A summer electrical storm approached, but it was still about 40 miles out. With lightning flashes dancing repeatedly across the “pond” and rumbling thunder echoing off the water, Mother Nature orchestrated its exhibition. The storm slowly made overtures to the eastern shoreline. It was quite a sight and sound.

Realizing the might of nature and the thousands of years this has occurred in the past, and will again in the future, one reflects on recent events thinking how easy it is to get caught up in the everyday. And at the same time, recognize there are more important things, like health, family, living, exploring, growing, contributing and thanking those special people in your life.

Perhaps it’s fitting with the recent discourse on teachers, to reach out and thank that individual of years ago who really made a difference. To say I love you to your loved ones. To take time out and listen to the child who really wants your attention or viewpoint. To say thank you to that physician who hears the daily complaints of patients, but still has time to listen to your concerns.

And before I forget, thank you Bill for your all your insights.

It’s a beautiful weekend here, but not down in southern Louisiana, Texas. A night or two ago, we reached out to friends who will evacuate again. It is not a pleasant situation.

If you know some people in Gustav’s path, reach out and let them know you care.

The unknown unknowns?

http://tinyurl.com/5pqqmm

Another perspective of the election. Any one know of this writer?

http://tinyurl.com/Bageant8-27

Public Schools - I wonder if those here who show strong interest are aware of Michelle Rhee's reform program in the DC public school system. If you are unaware (I WOULD expect that you are fully informed), then you might want to study this at least briefly prior to condemning any attempts at trying to understand or correct the situation entailing a concept contrary to a simple tax and spend approach (which hasn't worked, I might add).

http://tinyurl.com/2ac5s8

This is the spirit of my proposal for teachers unions, instead of beating their heads against the wall, screaming for more money like a nest of hungry baby birds.

Seamus- I second all of your 'motions'...

Republicans - The one thing I can say in their support is this time the VP candidate is the lesser-experienced of the two, as opposed to the Chaney/Busch dynamic duo.

Upon the election of the current administration it was obvious our commander in chief was no genius, but it took a second term for Americans to visualize absolute proof Chaney was an even bigger dunce.

We cannot afford any further missteps, I will need proof positive prior to changing my position.

nemo, you claim Obama and Palin have comparable experience? Are you serious?

Obama was a community organizer, a law professor, a state legislator and a U.S. Senator.

Palin was on her PTA, mayor of a small town and then Governor.

A wash? Get serious.

And as to her "stopping the Bridge to Nowhere", read this:

http://tinyurl.com/6mhl2a

Obama is an exceptional orator and you label him a "Bloviator"? That isn't being pejorative, it's a pathetic ad hominem.

But who cares what you think? That you prefer Palin to Obama/Biden is your problem. A large problem at that.

As an observer of the US political scene, I find this Palin -Obama experience debate so off the topic. The measure of a person is surely their ability to assess, analyze, present solutions, make persuavive arguments,and provide leadership on substantial issues. In today's multi national world, I would think that international experience would be critical.

Since the US faces many enormous challenges, I would think a person would depth, vision and new approach would be more suitable.

in reference to n2s's above post, offering my two cents- many years ago i had a boss who was fired and i was abruptly thrown into an (interim) role for which i had absolutely no experience...it was a heady first six months, followed by the gradual realization that the job had little to do with my professional expertise and everything to do with the ability to (a) put out small fires, (b) pull rabbits out of a hat, (c) say the right things at the right time, and (d) keep your head straight while doing all of the above...in addition, there were decisions i was unprepared to make, and personally unwilling to make without being clear about them- so i got off my --s, hired someone who knew what he was doing for the job, and went back to my previous position...

obama and palin will have advisors to help them, of course...IMO, how they manage (and how well they manage) people will be key to succeeding at fulfilling the almost unbelievable number of goals (domestic and foreign) expected of them...i have to at least respect their willingness to take them on...

Speaking of wind, can we anticipate wind power to benefit from the arrival of GUSTAV?

Seamus and Ron, really enjoyed your posts.

Maromatics and Kaimu may your health return to full speed.

CP- re wind/solar:

http://tinyurl.com/6ls2cp

company fortunes at the mercy of congressional votes gets old....

I support the Palin move because she can't have many special interest hooks in her yet. Biden has been in congress forever and therefore may be considered part of the problem. I also like how her nomination has given liberals fits of hysteria. Their true colors shine through in such moments.

Nice balance of perspective from Seamus and 2nd.

#2son makes a point, I've been to/through Wasilla, AK.
If you can balance your checkbook you're qualified to be mayor of Wasilla, although I'm sure the residents are grateful and almost none of Palin's positions would be germain to them in that capacity.

I got a call from a friend of mine who's daughter runs Planned Parenthood in the State of Alaska. "The voice of choice" he says jokingly. Apparently the Palin nomination has generated interest from Newsweek, etc. so she may now get national exposure. She is a very smart person and is well spoken so we shall see.

"I support the Palin move because she can't have many special interest hooks in her yet. Biden has been in congress forever and therefore may be considered part of the problem. I also like how her nomination has given liberals fits of hysteria. Their true colors shine through in such moments."

I love these.
1. How long has the Republican candidate McCain been in Congress if "Biden has been there foreever"? So then how much of the problem is McCain IF THE HOUSE/SENATE WAS REPUBLICAN CONTROLLED FOR MOST OF BUSH'S TWO TERMS? Rule #1 of debate, don't fall on your own sword making silly points that can be used against your argument.

2. Liberals "fits of histeria"? Only the disillusioned take a defensive announcement of an unknown as strength and attempt to faux us into thinking the other side is histerical.
Don't make us laugh.

Histerical is when you are forced to pick a 20 month neophite governor you've only met twice over Joe Leiberman because your first choice would scare your party away.....and you aren't powerful enough to announce it at your convention like your stronger opponent, so you are forced to announce defensively in a lame attempt to thwart his inevitable bounce.

It didn't work. All it did was bring attention to McCain's dicey decision making ability.
Palin seems like a nice person, I know many women like her and would feel fine with her in the woods. President after "Mayor" of Wasilla and 20 mos in Juno?....I don't think so.
I need to check, but I think the Mayor of Wasilla is also the postmaster, store keeper and Coroner.

Telestar3d,

Just a couple more variables to throw into the hopper — I frankly believe the inflation rate is at least double what the official admission may be. (at least 10% now)

A 3-6 month turn around for this b ear also seems optimistic. Bill Gross, Jimmy Rogers, Warrren Buffett and the late Sir John Templeton expressed the opinion this market will be a lot like the late 1960s to 1970s for stocks.

I have been investing my own money since 1967 and have never seen such distortion of data and short term thinking by "professionals." I no longer watch any financial TV except with the sound off — too many unsupported commentaries just add to the confusion.

I recently re-read Buffet's biography and he bought nothing but Treasuries until about '73 or '74 when he was like a kid in a candy store with the falling prices.

I agree with you on energy and metals, but would add gold when down.

Hey Jock, they're catching up to us again.....professional cynics giving us a run for our money!

From one of the Detroit papers:
Stephen Henderson
Sarah Palin's big minus
August 29, 2008

This is why people don’t like politics. And this is why people so deeply distrust politicians.

For months, the Republican party and its presidential nominee, John McCain, have been absolutely hammering Democratic nominee Barack Obama as inexperienced, and unready to be president.

The theme at their counter-convention tent in Denver last week, where the Democrats nominated Obama, was “A Mile High, an Inch Deep,” a clever but nasty allusion to the idea that Obama’s scant government experience is not sufficient to be commander in chief.

But now comes Sarah Palin as McCain’s vice presidential choice.

Sarah Palin?

For 20 months, she has been governor of a state whose population is smaller than the City of Detroit’s. Prior to that, she was mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, a town whose population is about 8,500 — about two-thirds the size of Berkley, Mich. Before that, she was on the city council in Wasilla for four years.

That’s it.

On what planet is this pick not an example of a stunning — and galling — hypocrisy? By McCain’s own terms, Palin is an indefensible choice.

And this is the problem with modern politics. Politicians say what they think they need to say to win votes, exploiting any advantage they can in the polls, and then they turn around and do exactly the thing they’ve criticized others for doing if it works, again, to their political advantage.

I’ve long said you wouldn’t take that kind of disingenuous kind of behavior from a friend, or an employee, or even from a dog; why on earth ought we to accept it from those who would lead us — into war, into the financial abyss, into the future?

The most disappointing aspect of this is that it comes from John McCain, whose reputation over three decades in Washington has been that of a straight shooter, someone who says what he means, and does what he says.

Some are saying his choice of Palin shows boldness, and exemplifies his streak for doing what he thinks is best, regardless of what others might believe, or tell him.

But if this is how that streak manifests itself, in a decision that makes no sense by the very criteria McCain set for himself, and the country, to judge his opponent, then perhaps his independence is more reckless than what we can afford in the Oval Office. Perhaps his judgment suffers when confronted with political opportunity.

That’s not to say that Palin, herself, won’t impress along the campaign trail. By all accounts (and there aren’t very many intimate ones, given the remoteness of her political career) she is smart, tough, and something of a maverick herself. They say she has stood up for ethics reform in Alaska, which is a political backwater whose corruption rivals Louisiana’s, and that she was committed to energy independence way before gas hit $4 per gallon.

That’s all fine.

It’s also fine that the political calculations — the need to woo Hillary Clinton supporters, the appeal to the far right wing that is gained by adding Palin’s strong pro-life credentials to the ticket — cut strongly in Palin’s favor.

But you could say the same thing about Barack Obama, that his other qualities shine brighter than the shadow of his inexperience; Republicans have been telling us for months that argument doesn’t wash. Now, with Palin, what are they saying?

On principle, this pick is a slap in voters’ faces. It either assumes their stupidity, or exposes a disturbing lack of integrity on McCain’s part. Maybe both.

That’s worth remembering in November.

Craig,
Of course McCain is part of the problem. I was comparing Biden/Palin. You must admit you last post was a wee bit defensive. Time will tell if this will work, but it's sure a lot more interesting now.

Craig,

The former Comptoller General is David Walker. He was on C-SPAN about a year ago speaking to a gathering of accountants. I taped and watched over two hours of his speaking, answering questions and listening to his audience agree with his dire views on our economy and lack of a plan.

At the time I couldn't believe the administration didn't fit him with a muzzle. We are one sick country.

IMO Obama is promising what no one can deliver and McCain is offering the same plan which has led us to this mess.

My view is we need to tax all income. Collect Social Security with no $ cut-off point. Encourage individual savings through broadening the Roth IRA. Set congressional term limits. Stop the former legislators from becoming lobbyists.

I guaranty to accomplish all of the above in four years or less — not as president — I will accept only total control as Emperor. For most problems I only plan to shoot the first offender. :-)

Craig said:

"It either assumes their stupidity, or exposes a disturbing lack of integrity on McCain’s part. Maybe both."

Or it may just show poor judgment on McCain's part. With all the competent people to choose from for VP, this is what the republicans get ???

As someone who has usually voted with the conservatives, this VP selection by McCain pushes me further away.

It's akin to Perot choosing Stockdale as VP back in '92 - it essentially ruined his chances. I don't see this situation that much differently.

craig makes a relevant point about Palin- keep in mind should anything happen to McCain, she will be President...i just have a hard time making that leap...

...it's only a matter of time before the Obama campaign starts running stories about the "President Palin" scenario, and to be honest, that would scare me away from the Republican ticket...

Hopefully everyone is scared into writing in Ron Paul.

Craig - It's not easy for us "amateur cynics" to keep up with the professionals - the elites from Politics and HB&B !

Obama was "a mile high, and an inch thick" -
Next day, Ms. Barracuda brandished her automatic weapon in the first pix fed to the media.

Msg: terrorists, Russians, Iranians and whoever else interferes with the spread of "democracy" and "free market", we've got you in our sniper-scopes!

Obama and Biden want to talk you, but we just want to kick your ass!

And, girls, it's OK for you to feel this way too .....

Most U.S. Gulf oil output shut as Gustav threatens

http://tinyurl.com/6jga92

CME Group Revised Labor Day Holiday Hours for NYMEX Energy Products
All other CME, CBOT and NYMEX products retain previously announced hours

"We wanted to provide our customers with the opportunity to respond to the storm's potential impact to energy markets as quickly as possible," said CME Group Chief Operating Officer Bryan Durkin. "The ability to trade both our exchange-listed and over-the-counter energy products during this period will be a significant benefit for global energy market participants."

http://tinyurl.com/5t22vp

to facilitate cover of oil shorts?? - hmmm....

I'm surprised by the amount of hand-wringing and serious discussion of integrity in the campaign, disappointment with choice of Sarah, etc. It's not about that!

It's about Republicans retaining power and its benefits.(Imagine if Hallburton had to COMPETE for contracts in Iraq or Iran or Pakistan!)

The "straight-talk" express didn't work for McCain; Bush slimed and banished him in 2000 with the ruse about his "illegitimate black baby".

McCain didn't take long to embrace Bush, and start playing Bush'es game. He sought out that evangelical wacko preacher. He now has Rove's leutenants in his campaign, and he's doing whatever he has to do to win.

Integrity has gone out the window. It's McCain's last chance to win the Presidency; I bet he feels compelled to outdo his dad, who led the invasion of the Dominican Republic.

Rove must have pre-tested Sarah in focus groups and found her a net positive .... Sit back and enjoy the circus, but don't expect too much!

If we're smart traders, we'll get some financial consolation.

#2, I labeled Biden a Bloviator

2nd - Perhaps here's our target date for our last look at $80 crude in the rear-view?

"Some $500 million in investment and production tax credits will expire Dec. 31 unless Congress renews them. Without that help, solar and wind power companies say they will reverse planned expansions and, in many cases, cut payrolls and capital investment."

By this time the GOP may as well have launched Palin's motorboat - and hung a "Gone fishing the San Juan" sign. The US Taxpayer is sick of the BS, and even the "Blue-Hairs" will have turned on them for squandering social security.

number2son,

I wanted to check in my advanced age. This is what I wrote:

"Frankly, and to be perjorative, I prefer her over Biden the Bloviator, and forgive my cynicism about Obama, but beyond the hard questions, something just doesn't sit right with me about him."

sergio - we may be the only ones paying any attention, but add this to your posted commentary:

From today's Bloomberg (my *_* emphasis):

" Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil, natural gas and gasoline rose *in a special trading session today* as Hurricane Gustav approached the Gulf of Mexico, halting most oil and gas output and shutting local refineries.. Electronic trading opened early today to allow traders to respond to Gustav. *Trades will be dated Sept. 2* because of the U.S. Labor Day holiday tomorrow...

``It's a huge storm, and it's got the potential to cause all kinds of problems,'' said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. ``There's a lot of concern that this is something that could really, really damage infrastructure badly, and this could be another instance of Katria-Rita or worse.'' ....."
http://tinyurl.com/5cphy2

Level playing field - yep.

NGas trading on Labor Day-

since HNU.to is a Canadian fund, assume it's open for trading Monday, and will be trading in response to Nymex NGas futes...unfortunately, I don't think I will have access to it via Fidelity...perhaps another reason to open an IBKR accout...

[Bill Cara note:

Sorry, Canada has Labour Day holiday on Monday. Markets are closed. I'll see you all back here on Tuesday.]

Back from vacationing at my cottage on cape cod without internet and TV
Will enjoy reading blog post of more than week while you may be busy counting all the money you guys made during this time?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvjBx0om2H4

You guys I love this song.

Vinod, where on the Cape were you? I go to Chatham a lot.

spot - The market is far from being a level playing field while you and I could never gain access to upstairs trading.

This is why and how I make my case for HB&B's adept rise from the ashes. Yes, there will be a few engineered set-backs, just enough to get pessimists back in the barn for their daily milking.

shark_attack

It is at Wellfleet

Sharkster:

Do you know what one should do if they drop their wallet in Provincetown?

vinod- hope you enjoyed your vacation, welcome back...

as of right now, NYMEX oil is up 1.68 (1.5%), as expected...NYMEX NGas is DOWN 0.139 (1.7%)...

http://tinyurl.com/chcy4

Ah, nemo. I am very sorry to jump on you about that, then. Biden does have a tendency to bloviate. And preferences in that regard are allowed. ;)

No provincetown jokes please. One of my favorite restaurants in the world is in P-town (Front Street) and I totally support the lifestyle choices of all who attend that once vibrant, but sadly gentrifying hamlet. Some things in life SHOULD be really gay, like P-town and disco, if only to make that which is straight all the more so.

Key to the US election - which crew would Joe Six-pack rather invite to his labor-day picnic?

a couple of policy wonks, or a war-hero with a Barbie who's also a sharp-shooter?

Game over?

crude now up less than a dollar, and NGas down 0.193...

shark,
those were some of the worst mullets i've ever seen..and i live in tennessee...
mcm

Sharkster:

Haven't been there in years, but I guess it's become more accepting of breeders there (as my alternative lifestyle friends used to refer to us as)

number2son:

Personally, I'm not that political. I've cited my "cow theory" of politics here before. All I want to know is how whoever wins will affect the markets. I'm basically in Kaimu's camp on this-you won't get much different from either of them.

2nd, I hope you open up at IBKR, they trade around the globe. It's a selfish hope, however, cause I hope then you could explain their rich and varied trading platforms to me. charlie

Thanks for the WIR Bill,

Another day at Cara University.

For anybody out there, where can we find a graphic/chart on the indexes that plots them against the P/E of the index?

So Palin is all for energy independence. I shouldn't expect anything less from a governor from Alaska. Hello North Slope and Arctic deposits! Her being one heart beat away from being the President tells me it isn't too much of a stretch of the imagination to see a situation where Big Oil is in charge of the White House ( again ).

You guys are alright! I'm always impressed in the longrun with the wisdom of the voter/citizen.

I thought I would get lambasted over the posting of the Detroit news story, but I happen to agree with most of your excellent responses.

Grym pretty much nails it for me on taxes, etc. I don't agree with all, but for a rather large group of people we all seem to want the same things and are wary of the same BS from both sides. It depends on where your cynicism lies as to where you lay blame/caution. That's totally fair. A Dr. Paul still holds our true allegiance.

Enjoy your day and holiday whereever you are.

You guys are funny. I wouldn't say that P-town is more accepting of we breeders per se, so much as it has been overrun by so many of us that the alternative folks have been becoming more marginalized as the years have gone by. It's almost to the point where there are so many families and straight couples that honestly, one yearns for days of yore, when, as a young teenager during the late 1970's one could see entire lines, 12 across, of gay guys arm in arm prancing down the middle of Commercial street in hot pants and too-tight tops singing the big hits of the day such as YMCA and ducking into doorways and backrooms to bugger each other at the drop of a hat.

Don't get me wrong...it was kind of scary being there, but the place had a EDGE which has been disappearing ever since AIDS came around, maybe 20 years ago and has been accelerating.

How are you guys doing with your trading today? Is anybody trading any markets anywhere? Looks like oil's collapsing and, I would imagine, the airlines may be back in play tomorrow.

First: Bill, or whomever:

Looking at JNJ's Value Line report I find these two somewhat contradictory statements:

"continue experiencing softness, so
we have hiked our full-year sales estimate
by $2.75 billion, to $65.75 billion. As a result,
we now look for share earnings of
$4.70 this year, $0.20 higher than our previous
estimate and a 13% increase from
last year’s tally."

In the paragraph directly below that:

"Also, the dollar is likely to stabilize relative
to foreign currencies, which would
reduce the positive impact of foreign sales."

I guess it's a hedging strategy...

Could someone explain the "Relative P/E" ratio in this report? Is it a baseline number of shares outstanding, so should we multiply the P/E by the Relative P/E? Interestingly enough, it's P/E is at its lowest level since 1993/4.

Yet, I would make the prognostication that it will get dragged down with the lowering of the index tide in the near future.

Bill, I'm also concerned that, as you talk about the write offs that need to be taken, is their a further move away from derivative products underway that will further reduce liquidity in the system available for investment? Or, will the Central Banks just continue printing to replace the notional values lost in derivatives.

Hey Terry C:

Are you saying we shouldn't be for energy independence? How do you think Europe feels about not being energy independent vis a vis Putin? How would energy independence reduce our current accounts deficit and thus reduce our overall deficits? I'm all for the holy grail of solar/fusion/(favorite mode here), but the Realpolitik and Realfinancial situations require using current energy modalities until the others develop. There seems to be a general consensus that world oil production is shrinking at this time. There also seems to be a general consensus that energy can and will be used as a political weapon (Putin, Chavez). This may or may not fail in the long run, but for now, it's having an effect.

So, would you rather be independent, or dependent?

Ooops! That first quote from value line should have read:

Looking ahead, we think the dollar
may continue experiencing softness, so
we have hiked our full-year sales estimate
by $2.75 billion, to $65.75 billion. As a result,
we now look for share earnings of
$4.70 this year, $0.20 higher than our previous
estimate and a 13% increase from
last year’s tally

"So, would you rather be independent, or dependent?"

When we finally peel back the baseboard to this question we are all going to be surprised by the rat population that will scurry for cover, present admin and attendent oil co's most noteable, but Bill will again be proven right that both sides are puppets on the same string.

Sadly it will take our national security and a threat to the economy/voter to get us to face this problem full on, which is pretty silly as once we get going I think it will be a large part of our economy and a huge long term benefit.

My feeling from visiting So. Cal. so much lately is there is a way to go. Still 70+ on the freeways and acres and acres of roof space wasted while air conditioners labor to reduce 100+ temps. You know, solar panels suspended above your roof extends roof life and absorbs all that energy keeping your house cooler while it produces power to help offset the air conditioner. Cars could be recharged the same way.
Seems to me that once the initial investment is made/paid back, energy *could* be nearly free

Bill - You said: "cxo advisors or whatever that says I am 2nd worst trader of anybody they diligently follow."

I wasn't able to find anything on cxo's comments from 11/29/06 posts, but I learned you had some respect for Dudley's FED appointment.

A couple of points on "cxo", (because I often dwell on pointing out the obvious):

* I wonder who cxo's worst trader is (so I might read his/her comments and trade against them)?

* I suppose cxo advisors puts forth great effort to follow the worst of traders (for their contrary opinions, perhaps?).

* cxo advisors - Perhaps they traded upon their interpretation of your vision but got it wrong. To make matters worse, they seem to have used you as a scapegoat for their own indiscretion and lack of due diligence? How prudent is that?

I laughed when you brought up cxo.... I'm still laughing, can't stop...

Last trade on crude is $111.00 which is down 4.46 from Friday's close. Last trade for natty is $7.524 which is down .419 from Friday's close.

For some reason all the "tiny" links I've tried to post get held up by typekey. Per Bentek Energy's website regarding natural gas "Gas supply in Louisiana and the surrounding area is at 10%. Normal gas flow in onshore and offshore LA as well as AL-MS-FL and the Federal Offshore is around 9 Bcf/d but is just 0.9 Bcf today. Texas onshore and offshore production, which is normally around 2.8 Bcf/d, is posting around 2.1 Bcf this morning. Total Gulf production is at 26% or 3.1 Bcf/d of an average of around 11.8 Bcf/d. Total supply loss is over 24 Bcf since Friday." Keep in mind that these are just estimates but they are probably pretty good estimates when compared to what was flowing last week.

this topic was touched on later last week,
when it just seemed too easy to make the bull case for oil to jump in light of the storm.

too much media attention was being focused on the oil/gas rigs and how it may affect production, or how new orleans was at a heightened state of emergency because of the potential severity of the storm coupled w/ fears of a katrina repeat.

all this just made the bull case too much of a pre-fabricated package and the run up has now gone strongly the other way.

its not an "i told you so" type point im trying to make, its more that there was suspicious slant to the coverage that made it seem too easy for oil to rise on this and begged the contrarian to come out of the woods.

too many non-weather experts were chiming in on how severe the strom was and given front page headlines by the major news outlets creating a climate of fear. there has been round the clock coverage on CNN w/ a mass of reporters stationed "in the eye of the storm" in southern louisiana.

not to discount the seriousness of these storms but i find the media's current take far too sensationalistic.

crude is taking a beating, at least gold is taking a smaller beating comparatively. i wonder how much this will boost the US dollar as we run up towards the election and the next fed meeting.

Grym,

Palin - Simply liking her in the position of VP for whatever reason isn't enough for me to forgive the republican party for what has transpired over the last 5 years, rather, it feels creepy.

You said - "a lie exposed will never be forgotten".

I'm wondering why you search for reasons to support the GOP, and which category would you place the GOP in for steering us into Iraq? In retrospect, it appears Iraq was all about a lie(s). The search for nuclear and chemical WMDs has been abandoned, and too many innocents have died in vein. IMO, there has not been adequate acknowledgment, response, or explanation as to why the goal(s) couldn't have been "accomplished" some other way, or an admission of the real reasons the invasion was necessary. THE LIE(s) LIVES ON.

I'm mad as hell at the GOP and rightly so, IMO. I guess I don't forgive as easily as you, or perhaps I'm overlooking the wisdom of invading foreign countries? Sheesh! I can't believe American attention spans have actually been reduced to a new low sub 1/2 hour.

What would the world think of Americans re-electing McSame, for another term? Enough is enough!!! What am I overlooking?

The democrats have this one in the bag from my perspective but I don't trust them to make the right choices either.

dr.cosa - I was right there with you, man. Still got my DTO and wanting to add more.

port2013- thanks for the update...and congrats to anyone who stayed away from the hurricane trade...

dr.cosa- congrats for calling it right...

thx but too bad the best i could do was exit my gold position a few days ago. too chicken to short oil at $115!!!

dr. cosa,

I can't see how staying on a sideline in this case can be qualified as "being chicken"... All the hype around hurricane was just your usual sensationalism in news, but there still was a potential for a hurricane to turn out a big-scale disaster. In my eyes, taking any oil-related position into this weekend would be no different from gambling.

Taking short would most likely be rewarded in a while even if hurricane turned to be major disruption; short-term pain however coluld easily prove too much for a trader.

Nemo,

It isn't as black and white as dependence or independence. Of course we are going to be dependent on foreign oil into the near future. But why is there such an absence of leadership and political will to lead us toward independence through CONSERVATION? Our cities are still lit up in the middle of the night and there are no incentives for car-pooling, etc. There are any number of sensible policies and initiatives that would bring about an immediate drop in the price of a barrel of oil but we are not seeing or hearing of them because we are being dummied down by the Big Oil lobby. The biggest single event that would bring a halt to economic decline would be the return of the $80 barrel of oil. Giving a handout of tuck money to taxpayers so as to spend ourselves into prosperity or starting a new land ( ocean? ) rush for new sources of oil offshore, in Alaska or shale isn't a long-term solution to independence- just a way to increase energy consumption even more.

Shanghai, Seoul, Taiwan all down 3-4+% this morning, and all essentially at one-year lows...global recession fears would be another reason for skidding NGas/oil prices...

Yikes....turns out Sarah Palin is no Hillary Clinton but may be the choice that keeps on giving. You aren't going to see Chelsea Clinton pregnant out of wedlock....ain't gonna happen.
Or the Obama girls. Take that to the bank.

Remember, this is McCain's first example of judgement. And this was to make his campaign attractive to Clinton voters. Should Hillary take that as an insult? I would think so.

What a drag for this young girl to be in a whack family and all in the spotlight at a time like this....but mom doesn't believe in birth control, so this is what we could expect more of.......

spot gold at 815...no update from colin twiggs, but i would say it respected resistance close enough to 850, and probably headed back down..

Some serious QUESTIONS:

1) If the US is so dependent on oil imports, then why are we currently EXPORTING 1.8 million barrels of OUR oil EVERY DAY?
http://tinyurl.com/5h8xss

2) If we OBJECT TO GOLDMAN SACHS consistently providing our Fed and Treasury posts, why do we NOT OBJECT to the Oil Industry consistently providing our Presidents (Bush and Bush - 12 years) and Vice Presidents ( Cheney - 8 years, and now Sarah Palin whose husband is a long time higher- up for BP Corp)?

3) On a different topic, at what point do we register serious dissatisfaction with such Market “Manhandling” as has been exhibited in such actions as GS's suddenly changing an established Index in order, apparently at least to me, to profit from their shorts on NatGas; the selective listing of just-a-few Banks as “Do Not Short”; and the weekend opening the Crude Oil NYNEX markets to those in the know as opposed to the Public at large? Do we lock arms and march down Wall Street, or must we band together and go on sudden trader strikes during key weeks for “Bonus” determinations? or what?

Just questioning?

Gustav apparently made a direct hit on Port Fouchon, which receives 13 pc of USA's foreign oil and connects by pipeline to 50 pc of the USA's refining capability.

Port Fouchon is the receiving facility for LOOP (Louisiana Offshore Oil Port), the only U.S. facility capable to offloading the largest tankers. LOOP also got run over by Gustav. In addition, there are over 600 oil platforms within a 40-mile radius, comprising 16 to 18 pc of US oil supply.

Oil prices dropped fearlessly when Gustav was downgraded from Cat 3 to Cat 2, just before it hit the Port Fouchon area. Nevertheless, in 2002, Port Fouchon was damaged by Hurricane Lili. Like Gustav, Lili was a Cat 4 storm at one point, yet, by the time it reached Port Fouchon Lili was a mere Cat 1. Still, Lili was the deadliest and costliest hurricane of the 2002 hurricane season.

Despite oil's price drop, the damage to the port and the offshore rigs is yet to be known. The area is inaccessible for the time being.

The real achilles heel of Port Fouchon is Louisiana Highway 1, the only land-based access. It is an aging, over-burdened, two-lane asphalt ribbon with a profile to match a lillypad (specifically, not more than 2 feet above sea level). Needless to say, LA-1 has disappeared completely leading to Port Fouchon. http://tinyurl.com/6ej52g

The significant risk posed by LA-1 is well understood. $350 million in state bonds and federal assistance was arranged in 2006 to replace the most perilous 17-mile stretch with an elevated road likely to remain open in the event of a major storm. The project won't be completed until 2011.

But now, the cost of restoring operations in the aftermath of Gustav will likely dwarf the highway upgrade budget. And how long will it take?

For these reasons, it has been said that there is no other dot on the map more significant to the USA's energy supply.

Bill:
I just finished reading the WIR.
Remiss here...it's been a while since I've communicated appreciation.
Thank you.

everyman- wow..appreciate the info..

My pleasure, 2nd.

While it's implied, I should mention that any significant damage to LOOP could disrupt world oil shipping lanes.

Great call Dr. Cosa as I remember reading your initial post a few days ago. Amazing how the fall of one commodity, crude, could affect others, mainly precious metals. Even more amazing is that the supply of physical metals is falling and reported shortages are rampant. I likewise wonder if a drop in gold and silver prices one day would ever weaken the price of crude if gasoline shortages were ever reported?

Chickenpookie,

I have no intention of "defending" either party. I am very slow to forgive and would love to get even. Bush got my vote by default (didn't like any of the candidates 2000 or 2004), but I cut Bush a lot of slack post 9/11. With the Iraq invasion I figured a president must have info we don't have and would be stupid to reveal it.

Initially I thought Rumsfeld and Cheney were pluses due to their past experience — I was totally wrong and feel betrayed. I've read enough about the Iraq advice they ignored to think they should face a firing squad.

(Read Cobra II by Gen. Zini for the ten-year CENTCOM studies which were trashed by these two, or read the book by Douglas Feith for the sorriest excuse for bad planning of any military op.)

Colin Powell was sent to the UN with false info, but he didn't know it. A CIA agent had Osama dead to rights and called for military action, but was ignored. Too busy planning the Iraq adventure?

I like Palin's attitude as presented so far and think McCain a better C in C and that is the end of his qualifications. I don't expect them to win.

I have no faith in Obama's ability to do anything other than talk. Most politicians consider a meeting on an issue to be working — I count results only. He has zip to show for his political career so far.

If anyone is a serving public servant they should fill out their term or resign to run for something else. Can you picture yourself collecting pay while out seeking a different employer? All four of these candidates are being paid for job hunting.

Sorry for the rant, but it is a nothing market day.

I wish us all good luck. We're going to need a lot of it.

Re: Port Fourchon, LA as Achilles Heel

Another LOOP-like project is in the works off of Freeport, TX.

See: http://tinyurl.com/5ddlse

the developing consortium states that it is needed to address the refinery expansion in Texas.
I see it as a long term business model that replaces the countless tanker transits in and out of the oil ports and their associated costs > economies of scale.

[Bill Cara note:

While most eyes are focused on Hurricane Gustav today, there is another hurricane ready to strike the US. It’s called Hanna and presently it is in The Bahamas likely to head north from earlier NOAA forecasts (South Exumas and Cuba).

http://tinyurl.com/6mnpd5

If so, two places, as lovely as you will ever find, which I have visited in recent months as you know, are probable targets. Take care.

Governor’s Harbour, Central Eleuthera in The Bahamas
http://tinyurl.com/65gcym

Harbour Island, North Eleuthera in The Bahamas
http://tinyurl.com/6y9pc9 ]

Vadym: I agree w/your point on the oil trade.

Having said that Dr. Cosa had the brass set to play it.

Having not followed the "news" stories of the storm and followed only the noaa advisories, there was a real danger of damage from that storm, so where did the probabilities lie.

For the grinder, oil was not a good trade, unless you had money to burn.

For the gambler, it was a good trade.

Terry C:

Don't see anything in what you said about which I disagree. My point on expanding domestic sourcing is simply to have more in the hands of us than in them.

Spot:

Regarding oil exports, there was just headline information in that article. I can guess? Goes like this...Oil goes to who will pay most for it, it's an international commodity. Since we don't know what type of oil is exported, I can only surmise it's a form of oil more fitting for the refineries for which it is destined. Perhaps, because of demand destruction here, all we currently need is Venezuela's heavy oil. Can't tell from that article. Being the times, and being Markey (from my state), I'm not surprised there is no further information.

As for points #2 and #3. No surprise there. HB&B at it again.

Anyone interested in an interesting opinion of the longer term U.S. financials funding problem may like to read Contrary Investor for September.

He compares and contrasts the U.S. with the Japanese decade long problems.

http://tiny.cc/hvYtF

At least O'Reilly is finally back from vacation to lead Craig in the right direction.

Does anyone know where to find the list of components for the $djuspm?

This would be good to know. I feel this pm index represents my gold stocks better than say the hui or xau.

Re: Copper

Interesting to note the move in Copper mining concerns:

"Relative to other global resources sub-sectors, listed copper stocks have staged a sharp recovery in the past seven trading days, supported by copper metal's longer term outperformance of other base metals, and consistent with expectations, by certain analysts, that the global copper market will see annual deficits in several of the years ahead."

Mineweb

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page36?oid=61025&sn=Detail

RE: Palin

There are several interesting questions regarding the the Palin pregnancy. Not taking a moral stand, just examining the issue.

1) Did Gov Palin know about the 5th month pregnancy of her 17 year old daughter prior to being made aware of the condition via "libral bloggers" (inveterate Commie scum:)

2) If she didn't know about the pregnancy what may that say about the "family values" at play in the Palin household.

3) What may it say about Palin's "family values" that her 17 year old daughter had premarital sex and got pregnant outside of the context of a good, strong Christian marriage?

4) McCain camp says they knew about the pregnancy prior to taking Palin on as VP candidate, but is that REALLY believeable?

Watch for right wing radio spinners to make a VIRTUE out of the accidental knock-up, citing it as an example of a family (the parents and daughter in question) doing the difficult-but-moral thing by NOT aborting the baby and crediting the young couple for seeking the forgiveness of the 2000 year-dead savior by by entering into marriage ex post facto. Watch for them to call Obama and Biden "abortionists" this upcoming week. look for a generation or 2
of undiscriminating and not terribly smart mothers who've lost control of their daughters to make heroes out of these people and this predicament. When you live in an age when Britney Spears is a celebrity and Lyndsay Lohan is a role model, what the hell do you expect is gonna happen?

There can be little doubt, this is NOT what McCain signed up for a couple of days ago. The weekend isn't over yet and this Palin thing is already blowing up on him.

Any thoughts on pre-market UAUA for the morning? Seems like despite a potential sharp run up tomorrow that this trade could still be a good one until oil bottoms. Thoughts?

on UAUA:

See what it looks like against oil over the last couple of weeks. If you can get in below where it matched up before, sounds reasonable. Having said that, the fundamentals of the airlines(poopie) will put a ceiling on it. The question is where.

Have not posted in many a moon. But I too Bill would like to thank you for all you do. Great WIR, as I never miss it. As this community grows it is a pleasure to see the discourse and back & forth (somtimes contentious) but never boring.

All the Best to all

ST07:

UAUA is on my trade list for tomorrow. Oil down overseas (gold down 15 smackers also, Bill has been right, IMO the gold pattern of the last few days looks like a rising wedge) all look good for our beloved hurtling tube companies.

Don't overlook AMR, LUV, also looking good somewhere (or many somewheres) in here if oil keeps dropping.

That said, all 3 of those airlines are really in a short term corrective phase which could end tomorrow but that's what they're doing so don't overpay. Sell for too much though, that's ok:)

Anybody still thinking about McCain's integrity?

ABC is reporting McCain just hired the former Bush operative who slimed McCain in 2000 to prepare Palin for the campaign trail !

http://tinyurl.com/66g8bf

He's showing he'll do ANYTHING to win ... pardon any past sins. And Palin'll need a LOT of expert preparation in order not to blow up !

Jock:
Politics is a contact sport, and presidential politics is played at the highest levels. I think you'll probably find similar levels of preparation on the other side.

[Bill Cara note:

Agreed nemo. The sport/entertainment analogy is a good one. We all understand that choosing a running mate speaks to the judgement of the leaders and their aides, but I think it's time to move on. In discussing politics, we need to relate the Discourse to the market. ]

China's Spending May Thwart Olympic Curse, Buoy Asia (Update1)
Bloomberg
By Kevin Hamlin

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- China's leaders are planning tax cuts and a public-works spending spree to make sure their economy's growth isn't doused along with the Olympic flame.

http://tinyurl.com/6hkpga

Shark,

Hurricanes are bad and I feel sorry for anyone whose home is in danger.

BUT... all the hand wringing by both parties and candidates is sickening. Each one trying to look and act more concerned than the other to avoid being "Katrina-ized" by the media is sick. McCain packing care packages and Obama afraid to criticize him for showboating.

The candidates, like all professional politicians, realize the appearance of doing something, regardless of how useless, is now all that matters.

Stop the world — I want to get off.

I'm kinda wondering how a mother with 5 children, including one child under one year of age with special needs and another child who is a pregnant teenager, has time to run for vice-pres. And if elected is she going to spend her time fixing the country or tending to her children. It seems to me it would take some sort of super woman who could do both.