But that should not alter your strategies as a trader. You must retain a clear-headed perspective. And, you cannot get shaken out near or at the stock market bottom.

So, my thinking is still that there will be a final market blow-off (that process started recently with the commodity prices -- including the oil and precious metals beneficiary stocks-- that are the last ones to leave the dance floor), which will surely frighten the majority of traders. That final process, however, will also provide the traders who are best prepared an excellent opportunity to move from the abundance of cash they now hold, to the equities they need to buy for the next long-term Bull phase of the market.

In doing so, you will just need to avoid those industry groups that still have serious issues, like banks and real estate.

You will need to focus on the Energy, Basic Materials, Industrials, Utilities, Technology and Telecom, primarily. There will also be many high quality companies in the consumer segment of the market that will perform well, particularly if financially strong and paying out large and growing dividends.

Moreover, if you depend on capital markets for income, you will need to replace your US treasuries and bonds with solid dividend paying equities because interest rates will have to rise for the foreseeable future to counter inflation, which will be with us for many years. In this regard, you can consider convertible debentures as well, especially in the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials segment, where the Total Return aspect of trading will be of primary importance to those seeking income. Otherwise, you will have to look at high yield fixed income securities from financially sound companies headquartered in countries like Australia and Brazil, where interest rates are high (and will be on the rise but also where the bullish commodity price cycle will compensate).

Negative cash flow companies, like the juniors in oil & gas and mining exploration, will have a tough time in a financial environment where banks will have tight credit policies for the years until their own problems are resolved. But, stock promotion will not die. The junior companies with the best finances, the most aggressive yet prudent management, solid in-situ basic resources, and so forth, will do well. Look to some of these to soon start offering convertible debs, warrants and share rights offerings to overcome their bankers’ tight credit conditions. We saw a lot of that in the late 70’s.

In the macro-economic world today, the emerging economies will continue to develop, much faster than US, Western Europe, and Japan, and so you should be thinking of over-weighting the shares of companies that have heavier assets and revenues in those markets as you build your portfolio for the next Bull market in equities. Just be careful of country risk.

Looking at the various international equity market indexes Year-over-Year, you will see that most are down 1.5 times to almost three times the major equity indexes in the US:
Australia: -21.6%
Jan’s Nikkei: -12.9%
Hong Kong: -18.2%
China: -45.5%
India: -29.6%
UK: -17.1%
France: -22.0%
Germany: -20.2%

DJIA and S&P 500: -14.3%
NASDAQ: -12.9%

The winner, far and away is (drum roll please), Canada: -3.3%. But that has more to do with the direct international (ie, neighbor) trade implications of a falling $USD in recent years. The future will not be so kind to Canada, generally, particularly in manufacturing.

Yes, in capital markets, price means everything. If you look at the decline of share prices around the world since the 2007 highest levels, it is obvious that this Bear market has already been massively destructive. There is more game to come, but, I also believe that we are in the home stretch—the seventh inning, if you will.

By late August, I hope to release a report on the Cara Global 20 that I believe will provide, by and large, a quite satisfactory Total Return performance over the next two and three years. Cara Trading Advisor clients will see these same stocks in their portfolios. My global group of trading assistants will be working 24X5 to drive satisfactory portfolio performance results.

Btw, as soon as we get the requisite approval from the SEC, expected in August, we shall be working with clients who own their own brokerage accounts with a registered broker in their home country. Some clients will elect to go offshore, but the huge majority of our clientele will be resident in US, Canada and across Europe. Moreover, in 2009 I intend to spend more time visiting clients in The Bahamas, in their local cities, and via interactive TV.

I cannot seem to retire. (LOL)

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Global Economics Review

With respect to the US economy that is in dire straits, note that the tone is improving.

Weekly International Economic Report .

Econoday summed up the week thusly: “…by and large global equities kept a positive tone last week as oil prices continued to retreat. However, gains were limited by concerns about the global economic outlook and the financial system. On Thursday, U.S. financial stocks suffered their worst one-day fall in eight years even though corporate profits have not been as bad as feared. And hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials strengthened the dollar as rate increase expectations escalated and the currency markets seemed to take a benign view of the U.S. economic outlook. Underlining global economic fragility, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates this week for the first time in five years.”

Surprisingly, the New Zealand central bank rate of 8.25% has not kept inflation below 4%, and the authorities are suggesting it will not drop back below 3% until mid-2010.

The concerns on the non-US macro-economic front this week were (i) UK retail sales, and (ii) the continued rise in inflation in Japan. The latter will force the BoJ authorities to raise their bank rates and tighten credit, which will put more pressure on the Japanese Carry Trade that has boosted global stock prices in recent years.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Existing Home Sales for June. This is a bigger market than new home sales, and the health of the market affects people much more.

Econoday reported on this data: “Existing home sales continue to slide, unfortunately indicating that the long awaited bottoming in the housing sector remains elusive. The annual sales rate came in below expectations at 4.86 million, down 2.6 percent from May and down 15.5 percent from a year ago. The year ago decline has stabilized below 20 percent, but, remember, reflects ever-easing comparisons. The 4.86 million rate is the lowest in nine years of available data.

Supply on the market remains severely bloated at 11.1 months at the current sales rate, up from 10.8 months in May. The median price did rise 3.5 percent in the month to $215,100 but the year-on-year rate remains very weak at -6.1 percent. Declining home values are pressuring marginal homeowners into foreclosures and have weakened overall consumer demand and specific demand for housing products. Still, prices have proved relatively inflexible though the level of unsold inventory relative to demand points squarely at lower prices ahead.”

US New Home Sales for June. Obviously this data impacts the home-builders and the employment situation more.

Econoday reported on this data: “The new home sales report is largely positive, in contrast to yesterday's very weak report on existing home sales and offering a reason for hope in the sector. Annual unit sales of new homes came in at a 530,000 rate for June, down 0.6 percent in the month but against a nicely upward revised 533,000 rate in May (512,000 originally reported). April was also revised upward (542,000 vs. an initial 525,000). Year-on-year contraction is still very steep but, reflecting steady levels and ever-easier comparisons, is now down at least in the low end of the 30 percent range at 33.2 percent. By regions, sales were strongest in the Northeast with the South and West both showing slight declines.

There are fewer new homes sitting on the market, at 426,000 in June vs. 450,000 in May. Supply at the current sales rate fell to 10.0 months, still very bloated but down from 10.4 months in May and 10.3 months in April. Prices are another positive, rising 1.4 percent in the month to a median $230,900 and down only 2.0 percent year-on-year -- an improvement from the mid-single digit percentage declines of prior months.

If the housing sector does begin to recover, we can look back at this report as the first signal of improvement.”

US Durable Goods Orders for June. After the May report, Econoday noted: “Durable goods orders in May came in largely as expected but despite market relief, indicate at best a flat manufacturing sector. Durable goods orders were unchanged in May, following a 1.0 percent drop in April. May's overall number matched market forecasts for no change. However, excluding the transportation component, new orders fell back 0.9 percent, following a 1.9 percent surge in April. April was revised down somewhat for both overall orders and ex-transportation.”

I stated, “This report is important to those who are trading companies like BA, ERJ, HON, UTX, WHR, BC…”

So this week, while the S&P 500 sank from 1260.68 to 1257.76, here is the performance of the stocks I predicted would do well if the US Durable Goods Orders report on Friday morning was positive, which it was: BA (-6.3%, but was up Friday +2.1%), ERJ (+6.5%), HON +0.4%), UTX (+1.8%), WHR (+6.7%), BC (+5.6%). In most cases, traders who had been anticipating a good report made their purchases earlier in the week. BA is under different pressures at the moment, because the Dreamliner deliverability is being questioned.

In any case, Econoday reported on this data: “Durable goods orders in June were surprisingly strong, indicating that the manufacturing sector is showing more resilience than many believed. Durable goods orders jumped 0.8 percent in June, following a 0.1 percent rise in May. New orders for June were much better than expected as the consensus called for a 0.4 percent dip for the month. Excluding the transportation component, new orders rebounded a sharp 2.0 percent, following a 0.5 percent decline in May. For the latest month, strength was broad based.”

How is next week’s calendar looking?

US Economic Calendar.

US Jobs Report for July. Econoday reported: “The June jobs report showed further contraction in employment but the declines remain mild. Thus far, job losses are still at a rate soft enough to not pull the overall economy into recession. Nonfarm payroll employment in June fell 62,000, following a decline of also 62,000 in May and a decrease of 67,000 in March.” The US requires a net gain of about +180,000 jobs per month to be able to grow a healthy economy. Instead, over the past three months there has been a total of -180,000 jobs lost. Clearly, traders are focused on this report.

US ISM Manufacturing report for July. For June, Econoday reported: “Raw material costs are soaring in the U.S. manufacturing sector reflected in a rare 91.5 reading in the ISM's prices paid index for June, not a record but surpassed in 60 years of data only during the oil embargo of the mid-70s. Employment is the other major negative in the report, falling nearly 2 points to 43.7 to signal yet another contraction for factory jobs in the monthly jobs report.”

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

There was some continuing relief for the Bulls if a few stocks like Merck (MRK -13.3%), American Express (AXP -13.2%), GM (GM -9.7%), Boeing (BA -6.3%) and Alcoa (AA -5.9%) were avoided this week. The Nasdaq and small Cap segment performed well.

There were 5 of 10 sectors that lifted in price. There were 14 of 30 Dow components that were up.

The DJIA index lost -126 points (-1.10%) W/W to 11371. The S&P 500 was down just -0.23%, however.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 small cap indexes fared better than the S&P 500 or the DJIA. Thanks to a powerful Friday move, the NASDAQ gained +1.22% to 2310.53 and the R2K was up +2.49% to 710.34, following the prior week’s gain of +2.69%. If you recall, the Russell Small Cap index had gained +0.67% on the Friday of the week before that, so that was a solid eleven days for the Small Caps.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

What has been happening is that the market is led upwards by the NASDAQ, but down by the DJIA, as it turns out. The DJIA is more heavily weighted by Financials.

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week, there were 5 sectors up and 5 down, for the whole week as well as on Friday.

Traders seem to be undecided whether the Summer Rally can continue. If it is to rally, they want to see lower commodity prices but not so much of the lower Energy stock prices as happened this week.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IYH	65.08	0.40	0.62%	1.45%	3.68%	6.97%	-7.16%	1.62%	-1.35%	-6.78%
XLP	27.11	-0.03	-0.11%	0.97%	0.30%	1.35%	-4.51%	-2.94%	1.54%	-0.33%
IYZ	23.48	-0.02	-0.09%	0.77%	2.09%	-1.80%	-19.51%	-5.66%	-6.00%	-32.33%
XLF	20.80	-0.27	-1.28%	0.73%	10.99%	-0.19%	-26.66%	-22.88%	-23.47%	-40.06%
XLI	34.47	0.32	0.94%	0.50%	3.98%	1.62%	-10.49%	-10.16%	-3.72%	-15.31%
SPY	125.48	-0.03	-0.02%	-0.40%	1.32%	-2.14%	-13.42%	-10.11%	-5.68%	-17.24%
XLK	22.36	0.31	1.41%	-0.62%	0.45%	-3.12%	-14.40%	-6.83%	-2.10%	-15.94%
XLY	28.40	-0.17	-0.60%	-0.87%	6.13%	-1.08%	-11.80%	-12.24%	-7.97%	-26.75%
XLB	39.16	0.31	0.80%	-1.06%	-1.36%	-5.80%	-5.18%	-10.90%	1.87%	-4.95%
XLU	37.62	-0.48	-1.26%	-2.92%	-7.07%	-6.11%	-10.62%	-6.74%	-1.47%	-5.00%
XLE	74.01	0.51	0.69%	-3.54%	-9.83%	-14.43%	-6.91%	-10.70%	7.73%	0.97%
SMH	27.51	0.01	0.04%	-7.44%	-2.41%	-8.30%	-12.28%	-11.14%	-1.82%	-29.71%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IMO	49.03	1.68	3.55%	1.30%	-4.96%	-9.76%	-10.72%	-14.33%	0.37%	0.47%
PTR	132.02	0.68	0.52%	1.19%	4.07%	2.37%	-23.97%	-11.69%	-10.69%	-14.72%
XOM	81.70	0.90	1.11%	0.20%	-4.42%	-5.45%	-12.63%	-11.64%	-2.67%	-11.95%
TOT	75.59	0.71	0.95%	0.01%	-5.49%	-7.41%	-9.23%	-8.04%	3.95%	-5.85%
STO	31.13	0.67	2.20%	-0.26%	-10.49%	-13.17%	-0.35%	-10.29%	20.80%	0.55%
SU	53.90	1.60	3.06%	-1.32%	-10.42%	-9.72%	-2.23%	-6.36%	20.61%	15.27%
SLB	98.96	-0.31	-0.31%	-1.58%	-0.20%	-5.76%	-1.61%	-3.68%	27.36%	2.12%
CVX	82.56	0.56	0.68%	-4.06%	-10.50%	-15.24%	-11.66%	-10.93%	0.90%	-9.32%
ECA	73.90	1.61	2.23%	-5.47%	-10.91%	-16.89%	6.16%	-9.79%	16.89%	19.08%
CEO	144.95	-2.14	-1.45%	-5.91%	-13.45%	-13.56%	-13.42%	-16.33%	-0.38%	20.29%
RIG	133.02	-1.70	-1.26%	-7.64%	-8.27%	-12.07%	-8.86%	-14.03%	4.65%	15.77%
PBR	53.10	-0.24	-0.45%	-8.54%	-13.95%	-22.28%	-55.31%	-56.94%	-49.24%	-22.95%

Crude Oil ($WTIC -$6.21/bbl -4.80% to 123.26) was much lower but not as bad as the prior week where the loss was -$16.19/bbl (-11.11%).

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) lost -3.54% to close at 74.01. A week ago, the loss was -1.84%.

As I opined here last week, “Market volatility could swing prices for the $WTIC and XLE back and forth here, but I believe the trend is down. If it’s not, then I believe the whole broad market sinks rapidly now instead of in say 6 to 8 weeks.”

Imperial Oil (IMO +1.30%) was a small winner, but most of the Oil stocks were hit badly. PetroBrazil (PBR -8.5%) was very weak. So too were RIG, CEO, ECA and CVX.

I will re-state from a week ago: “More to come, but this is a solid sector for the future Bull, which means you need to start looking at the potential winners, and XOM, SU and PTR are ones I like at a price. The bigger the account (presumably longer term oriented), the more that it’s advisable to write puts on market pull-back days. But don’t chase them. Let them come to you.”

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PKX	126.31	0.59	0.47%	4.91%	0.53%	1.15%	-13.76%	1.98%	-3.96%	-16.87%
MT	78.02	2.40	3.17%	-0.26%	-12.12%	-20.71%	2.12%	-12.30%	23.88%	20.31%
BHP	70.90	1.45	2.09%	-1.34%	-7.66%	-12.59%	0.70%	-16.09%	11.79%	6.09%
RTP	394.50	8.00	2.07%	-1.74%	-8.52%	-13.04%	-6.00%	-21.23%	6.71%	32.98%
TS	59.42	1.26	2.17%	-1.75%	-12.62%	-13.92%	33.86%	14.09%	56.45%	23.15%
TCK	39.22	1.03	2.70%	-2.00%	-8.19%	-17.08%	8.22%	-13.75%	20.64%	-17.33%
DOW	33.00	-0.11	-0.33%	-2.80%	4.10%	-5.98%	-14.84%	-19.24%	-9.12%	-27.74%
NUE	56.09	0.28	0.50%	-4.20%	-14.20%	-24.07%	-3.24%	-25.93%	2.04%	0.29%
RIO	27.78	0.13	0.47%	-4.63%	-11.84%	-21.81%	-15.07%	-26.74%	0.25%	-44.46%
AA	31.81	0.53	1.69%	-5.92%	-8.17%	-9.89%	-11.96%	-10.95%	3.65%	-22.24%
GGB	19.47	-0.20	-1.02%	-7.46%	-12.14%	-15.86%	-32.16%	-47.56%	-21.08%	-27.57%
VCP	23.95	-0.96	-3.85%	-7.53%	-7.39%	-10.23%	-19.36%	-22.69%	-9.07%	-0.21%

Basic Materials (XLB -1.06% to 39.16) was down.

As I opined a week ago, “Traders are watching what happens to the Oil price. If it continues to come down, the Refiners and the Chemicals ought to do better (their margins increase). The major consumers of fuel will also be helped, like the major mining companies. But the goldminers will be hampered because gold bullion usually tracks oil and lower oil also leads to a stronger market and a higher $USD.”

The South Korea giant steelmaker PKX was up +4.9%, but many of these metal miner and gold producer stocks sank.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ERJ	30.26	0.14	0.46%	6.47%	11.78%	8.42%	-32.95%	-27.54%	-26.16%	-34.35%
MMM	70.95	-0.10	-0.14%	2.92%	3.25%	0.98%	-14.22%	-8.83%	-6.04%	-20.83%
TXT	42.81	0.38	0.90%	2.91%	-7.00%	-10.31%	-35.92%	-30.27%	-19.77%	-28.93%
UPS	62.55	0.04	0.06%	2.86%	7.86%	4.46%	-9.56%	-13.99%	-10.60%	-17.92%
GE	28.71	0.00	0.00%	2.54%	3.80%	8.22%	-21.90%	-13.86%	-15.56%	-28.97%
UTX	65.23	1.03	1.60%	1.78%	7.48%	3.89%	-13.27%	-10.25%	-10.34%	-13.25%
HON	50.84	-0.54	-1.05%	0.36%	3.10%	3.46%	-15.13%	-15.95%	-12.72%	-16.49%
FDX	79.49	-0.30	-0.38%	-0.04%	7.51%	1.79%	-7.74%	-15.85%	-11.64%	-29.62%
CAT	70.48	0.70	1.00%	-0.58%	0.96%	-5.12%	-0.21%	-14.31%	6.90%	-12.45%
FLR	79.81	1.13	1.44%	-5.27%	-8.65%	-13.00%	10.54%	-1.15%	31.98%	36.36%
BA	63.83	1.30	2.08%	-6.33%	0.87%	-6.42%	-26.31%	-24.76%	-17.14%	-40.47%
ABB	26.01	-0.73	-2.73%	-7.99%	-2.29%	-7.80%	-9.18%	-13.50%	7.26%	11.82%

The Industrials (XLI +0.50% W/W) had a recovery week [on Friday], closing at 34.47.

The falling oil price helped Brazilian airplane maker Embraer (ERJ +6.5%) again.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WHR	73.11	-0.06	-0.08%	6.73%	17.54%	11.48%	-8.48%	-4.31%	-6.00%	-33.42%
EBAY	25.40	1.01	4.14%	5.92%	-9.32%	-7.94%	-21.82%	-18.85%	-5.33%	-24.31%
BC	12.60	0.04	0.32%	5.35%	26.38%	9.00%	-25.53%	-22.94%	-26.32%	-57.23%
CCL	37.91	0.28	0.74%	3.47%	25.16%	13.27%	-13.17%	-3.90%	-8.45%	-16.99%
TM	91.82	-1.37	-1.47%	2.83%	1.44%	-2.84%	-13.75%	-10.03%	-9.98%	-24.92%
TTM	10.10	0.07	0.70%	0.80%	7.79%	-5.25%	-48.07%	-37.19%	-44.60%	-44.35%
DIS	31.10	0.08	0.26%	0.65%	6.51%	-1.36%	-2.32%	-3.89%	8.44%	-10.96%
NKE	58.17	0.04	0.07%	-0.05%	3.39%	-2.24%	-8.08%	-15.38%	3.87%	0.59%
BDK	56.93	-2.81	-4.70%	-0.99%	4.98%	-3.08%	-18.59%	-15.76%	-18.65%	-37.99%
JCP	30.88	0.00	0.00%	-2.62%	0.42%	-14.17%	-25.86%	-28.52%	-27.31%	-56.32%
BBBY	28.01	-0.16	-0.57%	-4.37%	2.79%	-5.98%	-1.23%	-16.21%	-4.60%	-21.01%
TGT	44.57	-0.31	-0.69%	-4.91%	-0.38%	-6.44%	-9.98%	-17.43%	-13.62%	-30.80%

Consumer Cyclicals (XLY -0.87% closing at 28.40) lost a quarter dollar. Not much.

Target (TGT -4.9%) took a hit, but Whirlpool (WHR +6.7%), Ebay (EBAY +5.9%), Brunswick (BC +5.4%) and Carnival Cruises (CCL +3.5%) all felt the positive effects of falling oil prices where consumers have less pressure on them.

This followed what I wrote in this space a week ago: “The big Cara 100 losers here of recent weeks [I wrote here two weeks ago, “High fuel costs are killing many of these stocks] were huge winners this week. Cruise ship operator Carnival Cruises (CCL +21.0%), small yacht builder Brunswick (BC +20.0%), and Brazilian airline GOL (GOL +8.8%) had major gains. So too did Whirlpool (WHR +10.1%) because the average person can afford washing machines etc if they aren’t spending so much to fuel up their vehicles.”

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WFMI	22.52	-0.15	-0.66%	5.33%	7.03%	-10.28%	-43.36%	-27.80%	-40.03%	-39.99%
KO	52.06	0.20	0.39%	4.06%	3.56%	-2.18%	-14.78%	-12.25%	-10.87%	-3.68%
PEP	67.22	-0.18	-0.27%	2.77%	3.96%	3.78%	-10.72%	-0.59%	-2.47%	-1.61%
PG	64.46	-0.05	-0.08%	1.24%	1.59%	3.55%	-10.86%	-3.14%	-1.30%	2.35%
PDA	54.03	-0.43	-0.79%	0.93%	10.60%	0.78%	12.26%	2.48%	30.54%	44.31%
BUD	67.58	0.13	0.19%	0.70%	1.62%	10.15%	30.89%	43.33%	43.03%	36.28%
SBUX	14.42	-0.12	-0.83%	0.56%	2.56%	-11.43%	-25.32%	-9.08%	-26.65%	-48.43%
WAG	33.56	-0.22	-0.65%	-1.81%	0.81%	-1.15%	-10.12%	-5.44%	-2.10%	-26.44%
WMT	56.83	-0.14	-0.25%	-1.88%	-0.66%	-2.22%	21.17%	-1.42%	18.17%	18.72%
DEO	71.08	-0.86	-1.20%	-3.37%	2.98%	-3.70%	-16.44%	-13.24%	-9.85%	-15.45%
KR	27.01	-0.38	-1.39%	-3.95%	-6.44%	-5.59%	5.22%	2.35%	6.76%	-1.28%
ABV	57.86	-0.91	-1.55%	-5.21%	-1.82%	-9.40%	-20.17%	-21.44%	-13.54%	-21.60%

Consumer Staples (XLP +0.97% W/W to 27.11) was second best mover W/W.

Whole foods (WFMI +5.3%) and Coca Cola (KO +4.1%) had gains, while InBev (ABV -5.2%) lost ground.

In a Bull market, the defensive Consumer Staples and Healthcare ought not to be the #2 and #1 leaders for the week, but it is what it is, a Bear market rally.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DNA	96.00	1.35	1.43%	17.33%	23.47%	32.52%	42.43%	33.39%	41.61%	26.63%
UNH	27.45	0.43	1.59%	14.85%	23.87%	5.70%	-51.56%	-19.24%	-45.10%	-46.40%
WLP	52.90	0.57	1.09%	14.38%	15.20%	8.07%	-39.20%	3.58%	-29.17%	-33.87%
AET	39.22	-0.15	-0.38%	11.36%	8.25%	-0.93%	-30.76%	-10.68%	-25.44%	-22.57%
NVS	58.94	-0.91	-1.52%	3.11%	3.73%	10.07%	8.01%	16.48%	17.32%	8.55%
PFE	18.89	0.08	0.43%	3.11%	6.06%	10.02%	-17.55%	-7.54%	-16.45%	-23.77%
AMGN	53.92	0.08	0.15%	2.59%	5.68%	16.31%	15.71%	27.62%	12.01%	-5.67%
JNJ	69.03	0.37	0.54%	1.78%	4.18%	7.42%	4.73%	2.56%	10.52%	12.19%
MDT	53.59	0.21	0.39%	0.30%	2.35%	4.91%	8.26%	8.44%	16.20%	3.82%
NVO	62.01	1.37	2.26%	0.05%	-3.29%	-8.61%	-2.81%	-7.52%	5.67%	-42.98%
BMY	22.14	0.02	0.09%	-0.40%	4.83%	12.56%	-15.27%	-0.05%	-3.61%	-29.91%
GSK	47.04	-0.38	-0.80%	-1.57%	-1.01%	6.19%	-6.24%	4.26%	0.26%	-10.62%

The Healthcare sector (IYH) gained +1.45% to close at 65.08, which made this sector ETF the #1 for the week.

As I figured, the health insurance stocks gained along with the Financials. United Health (UNH) was up +7.9% a week ago and +14.9% this week. Others in that mix were Wellpoint (+14.4%) and Aetna (AET +11.6%). This isn’t rocket science. It’s more like a super-market where the aisles are labeled and you have to know when to go this way or that.

Glaxo (GSK) dropped -1.6%.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CS	48.85	-0.26	-0.53%	9.95%	18.25%	7.96%	-18.15%	-11.04%	-9.45%	-27.27%
IBN	32.09	-0.83	-2.52%	6.97%	20.59%	3.55%	-48.37%	-32.01%	-48.46%	-32.70%
DB	92.80	1.11	1.21%	4.07%	10.23%	4.60%	-28.10%	-22.89%	-16.72%	-33.65%
HBC	82.15	0.41	0.50%	4.05%	11.66%	5.40%	-0.35%	-4.23%	8.52%	-10.17%
JPM	39.52	0.38	0.97%	-1.25%	19.18%	8.81%	-6.28%	-17.30%	-9.44%	-12.70%
GS	178.66	-1.60	-0.89%	-2.29%	9.96%	1.36%	-13.94%	-6.95%	-6.64%	-12.06%
C	18.85	-0.21	-1.10%	-2.58%	16.43%	6.68%	-34.82%	-29.14%	-29.24%	-61.69%
UBS	20.76	-0.24	-1.14%	-3.35%	6.52%	-5.85%	-54.66%	-42.33%	-50.12%	-63.24%
MS	36.75	-0.49	-1.32%	-4.72%	9.90%	-0.22%	-27.87%	-27.44%	-24.83%	-44.20%
BBD	20.65	-0.18	-0.86%	-5.58%	3.30%	-0.43%	-32.14%	-6.73%	-23.43%	-25.21%
LEH	17.05	-1.47	-7.94%	-10.78%	18.16%	-24.59%	-72.58%	-63.62%	-70.54%	-74.80%
MER	27.52	-1.52	-5.23%	-10.97%	-0.33%	-16.73%	-47.84%	-44.56%	-49.93%	-64.76%

The Financials (XLF +0.73% to 20.80) followed the week earlier gain of +10.19%. In the DJIA, the first two winners were financials AIG (AIG +8.7%) and Bank of America (BAC +7.6%). That’s not to say the problems there have been fixed. They have not.

But after a 10-week losing skid, many of these stocks have enjoyed a relief rally. Some cannot, probably because they are toast: MER -11.0% and LEH -10.8% are examples.

But the winners, this week at least, were: Credit Suisse (CS +10.0%), ICICI (IBN +7.0%), Deutsche Bank (DB +4.1%) and HSBC (HBC +4.1%).

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
QCOM	54.45	2.02	3.85%	20.49%	12.66%	20.70%	41.83%	25.93%	36.13%	28.27%
RIMM	117.43	2.88	2.51%	4.06%	6.96%	-4.88%	3.27%	-2.17%	28.97%	56.32%
CSCO	22.43	0.67	3.08%	3.55%	2.80%	-5.84%	-15.49%	-12.38%	-7.31%	-25.01%
GOOG	491.98	16.36	3.44%	2.21%	-7.83%	-6.97%	-28.20%	-9.57%	-13.14%	-3.49%
INFY	38.30	0.44	1.16%	-0.31%	0.42%	-10.11%	-13.80%	-11.18%	-2.42%	-26.40%
INTC	22.01	0.34	1.57%	-0.36%	6.64%	1.95%	-13.18%	-2.44%	10.05%	-10.16%
ORCL	20.95	0.00	0.00%	-1.09%	-0.05%	-2.19%	-6.85%	-2.96%	3.30%	1.80%
AAPL	162.12	3.09	1.94%	-1.83%	-6.06%	-3.65%	-16.79%	-4.48%	24.70%	18.11%
ADBE	40.90	0.18	0.44%	-2.57%	4.23%	0.17%	-1.94%	10.87%	17.39%	-1.97%
SAP	54.01	-0.41	-0.75%	-2.58%	4.11%	3.59%	6.47%	4.17%	18.00%	-2.96%
CTSH	27.07	0.47	1.77%	-3.63%	-3.87%	-16.73%	-16.01%	-13.38%	0.74%	-34.22%
SNDK	13.66	0.14	1.04%	-22.25%	-17.51%	-31.46%	-58.82%	-49.11%	-46.68%	-76.37%

Tech (XLK -0.62% to 22.36, but up +1.4% on Friday) and Semi-conductors (SMH -7.44% to 27.51, after being up +5.43% the prior week) were weak. The SanDisk (SNDK -22.3%) was hammered. After one good week, the stock is getting hit with selling once again.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Telecom (IYZ +0.77% W/W) closed at 23.48, which means a win of over +2.0% over two weeks.

Verizon (VZ) -2.8% W/W was a loser again, following a loss of -2.1% the prior week. AT&T (T), which had been flat a week ago, was down -2.2% this week.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

Utilities (XLU -2.92% W/W) closing at 37.62, followed a week where it lost -4.27%. XLU also lost -0.78% on the previous Friday, so that’s over -9.0% in eleven sessions.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	1.64	1.58	1.41	1.72
6 Month	1.86	1.81	1.85	2.13
2 Year	2.70	2.60	2.63	2.80
3 Year	2.58	2.47	2.54	2.74
5 Year	3.43	3.32	3.41	3.52
10 Year	4.10	4.00	4.08	4.10
30 Year	4.68	4.60	4.65	4.64

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.30	2.26	2.29	2.69
2yr AAA	2.26	2.32	2.19	2.49
2yr A	2.72	2.72	2.53	2.76
5yr AAA	3.04	3.02	2.91	3.30
5yr AA	3.11	3.07	2.92	3.44
5yr A	3.14	3.14	3.10	3.46
10yr AAA	3.79	3.79	3.66	3.98
10yr AA	3.74	3.76	3.64	3.94
10yr A	3.81	3.87	3.69	3.96
20yr AAA	4.74	4.81	4.85	4.83
20yr AA	4.94	4.94	4.77	4.92
20yr A	4.84	4.83	4.70	4.87

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.53	4.46	4.47	4.29
2yr A	4.95	4.93	4.92	4.75
5yr AAA	5.22	5.09	5.18	5.15
5yr AA	5.63	5.52	5.80	5.39
5yr A	6.22	5.97	6.40	5.77
10yr AAA	5.53	5.50	5.48	5.67
10yr AA	6.35	6.23	6.39	6.33
10yr A	6.33	6.23	6.40	6.13
20yr AAA	6.25	6.35	6.51	6.36
20yr AA	6.05	6.15	6.30	6.33
20yr A	6.51	6.61	6.76	6.61

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Bond prices did not recover this week, but the losses were minimal. Yields went up and prices down.

For the week, the yields for the US Treasury 2-year, 5-year ($FVX), 10-year ($TNX) and 30-year ($TYX) gained +7 basis points, +2 bp, +2 bp and +3 bp respectively, causing some modest losses in bond portfolios.

The yield on T-Bills gained +23 bp as traders moved out of cash and into riskier NASDAQ and Small Cap stocks this week. This is just hot money, and that doesn’t mean too much.

The T-Bill yield moved up to 1.64 from 1.41, as bankers tried to make belief that credit market issues are under control.

The 20-year TLT, which had closed at 90.45, down -1.90%, including a loss of -0.37% on the previous Friday, closed down -0.30% this week at 90.18. I had been correct in my belief that the TLT would rally, but only for the first four days. On Friday, TLT dropped -0.96% as $GOLD rallied +1.6% on the day.

Anyway, a week ago I mused: “Now, I’m thinking (as you can read above) that the focus will reverse and maybe bonds might recover a bit, and the $USD might strengthen a bit. Traders who are looking to unload bonds should want to sell into strength. Yes, we may be in for a couple months where the focus is off inflation, but I think the long-term $USD Bear is still here and that means that commodity prices, while maybe weakening short term, are likely to find a cycle bottom and then continue their long-term Bull.”

So, for four days there was a rally. In fact the 30-year $USB moved (from $114.33 the prior Friday close) to 115.00 at the close Thursday, and then dropped to 113.81 at the close Friday. On Friday, traders goosed gold and sold these bonds down over -1.0%. On that day, the $USD dropped a bit, but it had been up a lot Monday through Thursday.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DRE	24.57	0.46	1.91%	4.29%	11.28%	9.79%	-4.10%	-3.65%	4.38%	-28.55%
EQR	42.72	1.43	3.46%	3.44%	8.79%	11.31%	17.27%	-2.47%	13.59%	-0.58%
AVB	96.03	3.92	4.26%	2.90%	10.08%	8.39%	5.12%	-8.44%	4.49%	-14.24%
AGG	99.46	-0.51	-0.51%	0.48%	-0.77%	-0.65%	-2.15%	-1.91%	-3.52%	1.00%
SHY	82.74	-0.11	-0.13%	0.06%	0.01%	-0.06%	0.49%	-0.47%	-0.91%	3.08%
IEF	87.22	-0.52	-0.59%	0.00%	-0.84%	-0.33%	-0.47%	-1.52%	-3.30%	6.81%
TLT	90.18	-0.87	-0.96%	-0.30%	-2.19%	-1.16%	-4.45%	-1.79%	-6.01%	4.48%
TIP	105.49	-0.65	-0.61%	-1.04%	-1.97%	-1.61%	-1.08%	-0.87%	-3.40%	5.71%
NLY	14.80	0.14	0.95%	-1.60%	3.57%	-4.82%	-18.23%	-13.40%	-22.27%	5.26%
FRE	8.270	-0.540	-6.13%	-9.91%	6.71%	-55.37%	-74.74%	-70.40%	-72.04%	-86.27%
FNM	11.55	-0.47	-3.91%	-13.81%	12.68%	-45.10%	-69.17%	-62.66%	-63.68%	-81.63%

Last week I explained the impact the Fed interventionists were having in the market: “As the Wall Street Journal reported last Sunday afternoon, the Treasury made a statement supportive of beleaguered mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and that helped the Financials this week. As I alerted, “A little too late, anyway. But the initial market reaction will likely involve higher bids for the Financials.” In addition to XLF rising +10.2% W/W, the Fannie (FNM +30.7%) and Freddie (FRE +18.5%) rose to ridiculous heights.”

So this week, the bloom came off the rose. FNM and FRE were down -13.8% and -9.9% respectively. The two are down over the past 52-weeks by -81.6% and -86.3%. Without the Treasury Secretary putting the US taxpayer squarely behind the stockholders and bondholders of Fannie and Freddie, the companies and their stakeholders would be toast. That’s how it should be. These companies would then continue on after the government sold them off to other companies as they have done with a couple failed banks this week.

This is all the ugly hand of politics in the supposedly “free” capital markets.

There is no freedom when it comes to Washington’s treatment of the US capital markets. What concerns me is what happens when the US taxpayer wakes up to the fact that at least 30% of the investment being saved by taxpayers is that of foreigners.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB lost -14.95 (-3.50%) to 412.22 this week, which follows the loss a week earlier of -34.26 (-7.42%).

That’s a major loss in ten sessions. Traders who were heavily margined were pretty much wiped out.

Going forward, there may be a bounce off the 200-day MA of 392.62.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) pulled back a further -6.21/bbl (-4.80%) to 123.26. A week earlier the loss was -$16.19/bbl (-11.11%).

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 133.58, and the 200d MA is 107.74.

A week ago in this space, I wrote, “Although I don’t have a sense of it yet, I do feel the market price will hit the 200-day MA price sometime in the next couple months.” We’re getting closer.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

A week ago, I gave you a heads-up re $GOLD. I wrote, “For the past four weeks, $GOLD gained +27.00/oz, +2.30/oz, +27.60/oz and +30.60/oz. This week, there was a loss of -$2.60/oz, but I think, what with the oil prices coming off, and the likelihood of the $USD strengthening in the short-run, that $GOLD will start to fall off faster and deeper. That belief, however, is not shared by the gold bugs, who daily are yapping about rocketing prices to come.”

This week, $GOLD dropped -$21.10/oz (-2.20%) to 936.90. I think it’s going lower.

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 915.28, and the 200d MA is 884.55. The falling price this week did bounce and rally off the 50-day MA. The gain on Friday was +1.6%, which means that the loss from Monday through Thursday was really severe. I don’t think Friday’s move means much (other than it serves to turn the crank of the gold die-hards). The short-term trend is still down.

In the market this week, $XAU, GDX and XGD lost -7.66%, -6.78% and -6.52%. A week earlier the losses were -3.60%, -2.44% and -3.88%, respectively. So the precious metal Bulls are getting smashed.

I did point out the likelihood of this happening, and the ridiculousness of listening to the usual newsletter writers/marketers.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER lost -%0.83/oz (-4.53%) to 17.38. A week earlier the loss was -$0.62/oz (-3.29%). Starting two weeks ago, and again in last week’s WIR, I noted each day in the Daily Report how the erosion has been constant, tracking oil prices south.

As I say, “Long term, I think $SILVER will trade well above $21.44, which is the cycle high, but not right away. For now, we are in a mini-deflation for speculative prices (ie, non economic prices) because the banks have no money and are seeking $USD from anybody, including from silver crazies.”

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 17.56, and the 200d MA is 16.67.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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The writing has been on the wall for the losses that $PLAT has been taking. $PLAT sank -$141.50/oz (-7.63%) to 1713.80 this week. A week ago it was -$191.90/oz (-9.37%).

Traders who are heavily margined are getting wiped out.

Two weeks I warned in this space: “A week ago, amid the precious metals rally, I wrote: This week $PLAT lost -32.00/oz to close at 2030.40. The loss a week earlier was -6.50/oz. Over four weeks, there have been big losses in Platinum. Well, as Gold jumped +2.45% this week, $PLAT gained +0.83% (16.80/oz) to close at 2047.20. There was a loss all week and a gain of +2.44% on Friday.” A week ago, I added: “That small gain on Friday set up the big sell-off this week.”

As long as Crude Oil is sinking, so too will these precious metals sink. The reason is simple; extreme speculation put them at such high prices. The market needs to find a balance before a new run can be taken at previous record highs.

The 50-day MA is 2025.57 and the 200-day MA is 1816.20.

The falling price did stop at the 200d MA for a couple days, but there really was no fight in this dog.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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A week ago I opined, “There was a warning in $PALL too. I wrote in this space in the last WIR, that “a week ago, $PALLADIUM lost -4.65/oz to close at 466.55/oz. The prior week’s loss was -8.00/oz. This week, there was a loss of -5.15/oz (-1.10%) to close at 461.40. Not all precious metals are in rally mode.”

$PALL dropped -$33.60/oz (-8.00%) this week to close at 386.30. The loss the week before that was -$41.50/oz (-8.99%). This is an example of how the leverage of margin wipes out trading accounts. The point is you can make +100% and you know where you stand, but you cannot come back after losing -100%.

The 50-day MA is now 447.53 and the 200-day MA is 427.01. A week ago I wrote, “Note how the current price has sunk below the 200-day MA as well as the 50-d MA. That smells like Bear country.” The market is that much deeper into it this week.

There was no fight at all when $PALL dropped to the 200d MA.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Last week I wrote in this space, “A week ago, $COPPER contracts lost -20.90 (-5.29%), closing at 374.00. This week the loss was -7.10 -1.90% to 366.90. The loss on Friday was -1.24%.” This week the loss was -6.40/contract (-1.74%) to 360.50.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 371.29 and the 200-day MA is 354.26.

As I say, “Not working for Glencore and the Marc Rich Metal Men in Zug Switzerland, I don’t have a clue as to how this market will play out.” I just figure that the big metal miners give us a tell. This week they were down again.

I have been saying, as you know: “Even though the current price is well above the 50-day MA, I still think the 200d-MA is going to be a battleground for copper traders.” Last week, I added, “Guess what? The price is sitting right on the 50-day MA.” Well, there was not much fight at the 200d MA as prices continue to sink.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NEM	49.20	0.43	0.88%	1.99%	-4.04%	-5.71%	-6.09%	9.99%	-7.62%	13.76%
EGO	7.880	0.160	2.07%	-0.38%	-7.94%	-1.87%	27.10%	19.21%	25.68%	66.24%
AU	33.74	0.70	2.12%	-5.41%	1.93%	5.17%	-26.43%	-6.23%	-21.55%	-22.99%
LIHR	27.92	0.82	3.03%	-5.90%	-12.17%	-8.28%	-15.83%	-1.55%	-15.01%	2.50%
BVN	30.95	1.07	3.58%	-5.98%	-2.09%	0.19%	1.68%	-2.67%	-3.28%	47.73%
GFI	12.04	0.11	0.92%	-6.67%	-3.37%	1.01%	-21.82%	-13.13%	-20.53%	-30.69%
ABX	43.87	0.06	0.14%	-7.25%	-10.85%	1.93%	-4.67%	10.59%	-15.91%	29.22%
AUY	12.76	0.07	0.55%	-8.66%	-14.42%	-18.26%	-8.00%	-4.71%	-18.31%	8.87%
HMY	10.51	0.13	1.25%	-10.25%	-13.78%	-6.91%	-2.23%	-11.61%	-3.31%	-27.37%
GG	40.28	-0.34	-0.84%	-11.67%	-16.59%	-9.16%	9.93%	10.08%	6.39%	51.31%
AEM	58.76	-0.35	-0.59%	-15.97%	-22.25%	-17.23%	3.96%	-5.76%	-6.34%	37.61%
KGC	18.65	0.25	1.36%	-17.73%	-19.99%	-16.52%	-7.44%	-4.16%	-15.92%	35.24%

The Goldminer stock group indexes dropped this week across the board: $XAU -3.60%, GDX -2.44% and XGD -3.88%. A week ago, the losses were: $XAU -7.66%, GDX -6.78% and XGD -6.52%. The keys here are the oil price and the $USD.

The 50-day MA for $XAU is 184.39 and the 200-day MA is 181.79, and the current price is 173.52, so the technical support is no longer there. As I pointed out a week ago in this space, “Any significant strength in the $USD (or weakness in the Euro) could see these stock indexes fall into Bear country.” Well, this week the $USD gained +0.88% and the Euro lost -0.90%. Bingo. There was no fight at all at the 200d MA, just like most of the rest of these precious metals related charts. The whole package caved in.

There was a bump Friday, despite more selling in the oil contracts, which I am sure heartened the gold bugs. But the gains in the three goldminer indexes I follow were from just +0.7% to +0.9%, and while the Euro and Pound really zoomed against the Dollar, the trade-weighted $USD lost just -0.01% as the crack in the Yen and Loonie on Friday kept it strong. But how is it that the Loonie can lose -0.50% on a day that gold is up +1.6%. It dropped because of oil prices getting hammered, which should have helped the USD more. I think there was some extra selling of bonds on Friday and buying of the Euro. But, more tough talk from Bernanke will put a stop to that, I think.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

This week the $USD gained +0.88% to 72.85, all of it in the Monday through Thursday timeframe. Friday was basically flat, gaining against the Yen and Loonie and losing against the Euro and Pound.

As I say, these are volatile and dangerous markets.

The 50-day MA for the $USD is 72.77 and the 200-day MA is 74.40, so the current price is now finally above the 50d MA, which technical analysts recognize as being a little bullish. The issue now is whether the current price can regain a level above the 200d MA and hold it.

As I pointed out the prior week, “The US inflation data was on the high side this week, prompting traders to think the Fed may soon take preventative medicine in the form of a higher rate. We’ll see.” Well, yields did lift slightly, and bonds sold down, particularly on Friday. The jury is out though.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) lost -0.90% W/W, closing at 1.5703. Friday, there was a small gain of +0.14%.

The Euro 50day MA is 1.5663 and the 200day MA is 1.5138.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound lost -0.31% W/W, closing at 1.9913. There was a gain of +0.24% on Friday.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 1.9762 and 1.9965.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lost -0.87% to close at 92.71, following a week where it lost -0.66%. So the Yen is weak, and trading well under the 200d and 50d MA’s, which is bearish.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 94.17 and the 200-day MA is 93.33.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) lost -1.25% W/W, closing at 98.14.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 99.11 and 100.09 respectively, which means the current price (99.14) is at an important level that could see it go bearish. With more falling prices of crude oil and metals/precious metals, I think the Loonie will go bearish for a while.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Here is the China Yuan (CNY) chart.

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International Equity Markets Review

There were mostly ups this week in the global equity markets, although the UK and Canadian markets had small losses.

UK FTSE down -0.4% from 5376.4 to 5352.6
German DAX up +0.8% from 6382.7 to 6436.7
Aussie All-Ords up +2.4% from 4915.3 to 5031.0
Shanghai Composite up +3.1% from 2778.4 to 2865.1
HK Heng Seng up +4.0% 21874.9 to 22740.7
India’s BSE 30 up +4.7% from 13635 to 14274.9
Japan’s Nikkei 225 up +4.1% from 12803.7 to 13334.8.

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I added 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices. This will come after we switch to the Drupal platform next month.

As I say, “the world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.”

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	39.03	-0.28	-0.71%	9.88%	15.37%	4.08%	-36.95%	-21.77%	-27.25%	-17.19%
EWH	17.03	0.28	1.67%	2.78%	3.59%	0.59%	-21.84%	-12.35%	-15.06%	-7.65%
EWJ	12.15	-0.14	-1.14%	0.91%	1.33%	-1.86%	-8.16%	-7.25%	-2.57%	-17.12%
EWA	25.70	-0.18	-0.70%	0.82%	1.74%	-3.17%	-10.70%	-7.98%	-4.07%	-14.62%
EWQ	31.86	0.41	1.30%	0.63%	4.84%	-0.96%	-16.03%	-13.09%	-3.63%	-16.29%
GXC	69.40	0.70	1.02%	0.32%	1.80%	4.00%	-21.93%	-14.19%	-8.53%	-7.22%
EWU	19.89	0.12	0.61%	-0.70%	1.48%	-2.69%	-16.71%	-13.60%	-8.38%	-22.09%
EWG	29.18	0.22	0.76%	-0.71%	1.99%	-1.42%	-17.55%	-11.20%	-2.77%	-11.12%
EWC	30.86	0.30	0.98%	-2.40%	-3.17%	-6.77%	-4.75%	-5.48%	4.12%	-0.80%
TRF	49.45	-0.22	-0.44%	-3.76%	-6.75%	-14.42%	-32.71%	-15.63%	-18.40%	-29.58%
EWZ	77.40	-0.10	-0.13%	-4.35%	-5.19%	-12.48%	-4.39%	-11.68%	5.02%	16.50%

International ETF’s that trade in NY denominated in USD again reflected the losses in the commodities markets. Brazil’s EXZ dropped -4.35% W/W to 77.40; Russia’s TRF dropped -3.76% to 49.45; and Canada’s EWC dropped -2.40% to 30.86. The UK and Germany (EWU and EWG) dropped -0.71% each. The rest contained some good sized wins, particularly India’s IFN, which gained +9.88%.

Interesting that whenever the Russia TRF declines, it’s always “Blame it on Putin!” Why don’t the same media people who propagate that nonsense shout, when the DJIA drops some, “Blame it on Bush!”

The mainstream media has a long way to go before they impact the minds of experienced traders. Little by little, traders see that the whole spectacle is entertainment driven and puppet-on-a-string games being played by vested interest groups.

Maybe that’s why mainstream media is losing relevance with serious people?

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA (-1.10%) and the S&P 500 (-0.23%) were down, while the NASDAQ Composite (+1.22%) and Russell 2000 Small Cap index (+2.49%) saw higher prices.

As I pointed out a week ago in this space, “Why the Dow 30 gained as much as it did relative to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ is that the DJIA is bank-heavy and those prices rocked this week: GM (financial component) +32.9%, BAC +26.9%, JPM +20.7%, C +19.5%, and AIG +8.6% were like race horses (that ought to be put out to pasture).”

This week, BAC stayed strong (+7.6%), although there was a loss of -3.5% on Friday. The GM lost -9.7% and American Express (AXP) plunged -13.2%.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AIG	27.24	-0.19	-0.69%	8.66%	18.02%	-3.03%	-51.62%	-42.69%	-48.82%	-60.04%
BAC	29.58	-1.06	-3.46%	7.60%	36.50%	19.23%	-27.07%	-22.77%	-25.08%	-38.28%
KO	52.06	0.20	0.39%	4.06%	3.56%	-2.18%	-14.78%	-12.25%	-10.87%	-3.68%
PFE	18.89	0.08	0.43%	3.11%	6.06%	10.02%	-17.55%	-7.54%	-16.45%	-23.77%
MMM	70.95	-0.10	-0.14%	2.92%	3.25%	0.98%	-14.22%	-8.83%	-6.04%	-20.83%
GE	28.71	0.00	0.00%	2.54%	3.80%	8.22%	-21.90%	-13.86%	-15.56%	-28.97%
JNJ	69.03	0.37	0.54%	1.78%	4.18%	7.42%	4.73%	2.56%	10.52%	12.19%
UTX	65.23	1.03	1.60%	1.78%	7.48%	3.89%	-13.27%	-10.25%	-10.34%	-13.25%
HD	23.80	-0.22	-0.92%	1.54%	10.29%	-3.49%	-8.85%	-20.08%	-16.58%	-37.43%
PG	64.46	-0.05	-0.08%	1.24%	1.59%	3.55%	-10.86%	-3.14%	-1.30%	2.35%
MSFT	26.16	0.72	2.83%	1.16%	3.60%	-5.73%	-25.72%	-12.30%	-20.58%	-14.82%
HPQ	43.71	0.33	0.76%	0.67%	5.10%	-2.15%	-12.25%	-7.88%	-0.07%	-8.06%
DIS	31.10	0.08	0.26%	0.65%	6.51%	-1.36%	-2.32%	-3.89%	8.44%	-10.96%
XOM	81.70	0.90	1.11%	0.20%	-4.42%	-5.45%	-12.63%	-11.64%	-2.67%	-11.95%
INTC	22.01	0.34	1.57%	-0.36%	6.64%	1.95%	-13.18%	-2.44%	10.05%	-10.16%
CAT	70.48	0.70	1.00%	-0.58%	0.96%	-5.12%	-0.21%	-14.31%	6.90%	-12.45%
DD	43.81	-0.36	-0.82%	-0.88%	5.64%	2.31%	0.16%	-12.17%	-2.03%	-10.94%
IBM	128.53	-1.47	-1.13%	-1.05%	5.25%	6.11%	22.77%	4.43%	22.97%	8.83%
JPM	39.52	0.38	0.97%	-1.25%	19.18%	8.81%	-6.28%	-17.30%	-9.44%	-12.70%
WMT	56.83	-0.14	-0.25%	-1.88%	-0.66%	-2.22%	21.17%	-1.42%	18.17%	18.72%
T	31.40	-0.30	-0.95%	-2.24%	-3.62%	-6.18%	-23.41%	-18.61%	-10.95%	-22.47%
C	18.85	-0.21	-1.10%	-2.58%	16.43%	6.68%	-34.82%	-29.14%	-29.24%	-61.69%
VZ	34.45	-0.64	-1.82%	-2.82%	-1.29%	-3.20%	-20.27%	-6.99%	-8.77%	-20.29%
MCD	58.65	0.28	0.48%	-2.96%	2.32%	3.90%	0.95%	-1.71%	8.41%	15.09%
CVX	82.56	0.56	0.68%	-4.06%	-10.50%	-15.24%	-11.66%	-10.93%	0.90%	-9.32%
AA	31.81	0.53	1.69%	-5.92%	-8.17%	-9.89%	-11.96%	-10.95%	3.65%	-22.24%
BA	63.83	1.30	2.08%	-6.33%	0.87%	-6.42%	-26.31%	-24.76%	-17.14%	-40.47%
GM	11.90	-1.10	-8.46%	-9.71%	19.96%	4.11%	-51.25%	-44.34%	-53.86%	-64.72%
AXP	36.62	0.21	0.58%	-13.20%	-6.61%	-5.84%	-28.25%	-23.34%	-19.41%	-40.68%
MRK	32.68	0.46	1.43%	-13.27%	-11.07%	-9.72%	-43.04%	-19.74%	-31.62%	-38.78%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT CHV DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on two companies, United Technologies (UTX) and Caterpillar (CAT). United Technologies is a Cara 100 company.

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Google Finance file)
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 25: next one is due Oct. 24)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Google Finance file)
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 25: next one is due Oct. 24)

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United Technologies (UTX) is a company you want to put in your Cara Global 20 candidates list for share purchases in the next few months (especially if the broad market has a cycle bottom blow-out event).

At the recent price of 60.08 (although the stock closed the week at 65.23), Value Line was projecting annual Total Returns of between 18% and 23% out to 2011-2013. The analyst has raised the 2009 earnings estimate to $5.60, which I think is reasonable. At 60.08 (VL study price a week ago), that puts the forward PE at just 10.7x, whereas the average annual PE for this company is projected at 16.0x, which is about average for the past many years. As the analyst opines, “The aerospace business will likely continue pumping out favorable results for the foreseeable future… no signs of slackening (with this company).”

The present yield is 2.1%, but the company is sitting on lots of cash and the pay-out percentage (to earnings) is just about 25% so the dividend is well protected and is likely to increase substantially in the next two years. In fact, I’ll project 2008 dividends at $1.40/share and 2009 at $1.64/share. The 52-week range is 58.87 to 82.50. In a Bear market bottoming spike, I think the market will drop UTX to a new low, say 57.50, but not much lower, if any.

If during that spike down, if, as and when it occurs, I would buy the stock plus write the 60, 55 and 50 Jan-09 put options, maybe two and three times the 55 and 50 series, for an average probably of $7.50 (they averaged almost $2 on Friday). If my cost of the stock, including the $60 stock that got put to me and the stock I bought at 57.50, was in the low 50’s, say $52.50, plus my two-year’s dividends were over $3.00, and my two-year price target was $110.00, my Total Return would be over +60% per year for those two years. That performance would put me (or you) in the Portfolio Management Hall of Fame (LOL).

But, the point is that if you stick with quality and watch your entry and exit points, you can significantly beat the market and earning terrific portfolio gains. That is our only focus here. But, to do that, you need a plan and to work the plan.

Btw, if you question the Quality of UTX, go to the bottom right corner of the Value Line report. Besides a Financial Strength Rating of A++, you will note that the scores for (i) Stock Price stability (ii) Price Growth Persistence, and (iii) Earnings Predictability is 100-100-100. You won’t see better!

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Caterpillar (CAT) is another neat company, although not quite into the Cara Global Best 100 companies. As I see it, this Company needs to operate in an expanding global infrastructure environment and a commodity price boom, which will generate the huge cash flow that management will use to buy back shares and rapidly increase dividends.

That is all happening, but the economy does have its ups and downs while I want to see (for the Cara 100) companies that are somewhat less affected cyclically. Having said that, Caterpillar is probably as high a quality rating in the estimation of many people as some of the Industrials and Basic Materials companies I have included in the Cara 100.

So, if the CAT is on your radar screen, great!

The present price of CAT is $70.48 with a 52-week range of 59.60-85.96. If you could buy the stock at 60 (which would take a Bear cycle bottoming spike), together by writing Jan-09 puts for the 55, 50 and 45 series, you will do hugely well over the following two years.

The dividend this year and next will be about $1.56 and $1.80, following 1.32, 1.10, 0.91 and 0.78 over the past four years. By year-end 2009, there will be well under 600 million shares outstanding, whereas in the 1990s there were well over 700 million shares out. In a commodity price cycle boom, this company generates a ton of cash. What’s not to like.

If our net cost of the stock (including dividends and put option writes) is in the 50’s and the average annual PE (ttm) stays about 14, which I expect, the price will shoot to at least $100 in 2010, and the two-year annualized Total Return will be superb. Again, what’s not to like.

The point is that CAT, like UTX, and the ones like GE and ABB that I referred to in the previous WIR, are in those Industrials I really like for the next Bull market. These are on my radar screen and I’ll be watching for when, in a cycle-bottoming event, the prices come to me, and I can use the ammunition I have been building for the past couple years to acquire gems like these.

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports. I added the Google Finance links, which are superb.

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Google Finance file)
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May 2: next one is due Aug. 1)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Google Finance file)
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 9: next one is due Aug. 8)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Google Finance file)
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Google Finance file)
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Google Finance file)
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Google Finance file)
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Google Finance file)
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Google Finance file)
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Google Finance file)
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Google Finance file)
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Google Finance file)
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report May 30: next one is due Aug. 29)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Google Finance file)
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance fle)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report May 30: next one is due Aug. 29)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Google Finance file)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 6: next one is due Sept. 5)

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Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Google Finance file)
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Google Finance file)
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 20: next one is due Sep. 19)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Google Finance file)
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 27: next one is due Sep. 26)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Google Finance file)
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 27: next one is due Sep. 26)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Google Finance file)
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 4: next one is due Oct. 3)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Google Finance file)
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 4: next one is due Oct. 3)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Google Finance file)
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Google Finance file)
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Google Finance file)
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Google Finance file)
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Google Finance file)
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 25: next one is due Oct. 24)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Google Finance file)
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 25: next one is due Oct. 24)

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Wrap up:

In any cycle-bottoming process, most traders will have a difficult time bringing themselves to a psychological point of buying stocks that have been weak, and looking like there will be no bottom. But, the trick is you cannot look at these stocks like typical investments (homes and cars, furniture, collectibles, computers, etc). You are a capital markets trader; the stock is just a price; and you do not marry the companies or have parental responsibilities to them. Stocks come and go. If they represent good quality companies over the long run, they will always come back from the inevitable bad times, and the Total Returns will grow for you. There is no magic or rocket science involved; it’s just life.

Don’t miss it.

You have a couple months to observe the market trend and cycle process as the cycle bottoms. The world is not “going to hell in a hand basket” as the expression goes, although if the market plunges one day, it may look like it. But, despite all the claims otherwise, the Financials still have serious problems to work out, so the prudent course when researching the equity market is the spend the next period focused on the other industry groups and market sectors that I pointed out are in relatively good shape.

There is no need to buy lottery tickets for a retirement plan. A little common sense will go a long way.

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