As I see it, there was a lot of short-covering and attempts at bottom-picking by day traders, but not much serious action by long-term oriented traders. I say that because the weakest companies had the shares that gained the most this week. Fannie and Freddie, for example, gained +30.7% and +18.5% W/W. Among the banks I follow, Bank of America (BAC +26.9%), JP Morgan (JPM +20.7%) and Citi (C +19.5%) had the biggest gains, and among the broker-dealers, it was Lehman Brothers (LEH +32.4%) at the top.

Although I’m not among them (at least not in all cases), there are professional analysts who think most of these Financial operators are toast. Arguably, Fannie and Freddie would be if they had no support in Congress, and how Lehman and JP Morgan would go if their CEO’s didn’t take 2 of the 9 seats on the Board of directors of the important NY Fed is questionable.

It strikes me that traders are watching the wrong signals; they ought to be watching the stock performance of the strongest companies in each sector. Trying to assess the going-concern prospects of a woeful financial services company when you do not understand and cannot evaluate their liabilities and potential losses is a mug’s game.

But, what else can traders do, so they play the market like a ping-pong board. How else could the market cap of LEH grow by one-third in five days?

The Chinese authorities must have a big laugh when after Treasury Secretary Paulson admonishes them for not adopting a market driven model they observe the market cap of five of America’s biggest financial corporations (BAC, JPM, C, LEH and FNM) is up over +26% in a single week.

I wrote some time ago that the market has lost its ability to price value, which is a different issue than the subject of Bear market volatility. The fact is we don’t have the information at hand to price value. The regulators (as in the case of the Fed dropping M3 for example or the SEC allowing offending broker-dealers to abuse the short sale rules) and the banks (not coming clean on losses and write-downs) are hiding information, and apparently they expect us to sit back and accept the crumbs they give us.

When was the last time a banker received a prison sentence for more serious crimes against the public than “our” Martha for example?

Yes, Mr. Moral Hazard, when all this stuff ceases, there could be a free market. Then, and only then, should the Treasury Secretary advocate the unconditional support of international capital markets. That’s an ideal to which we all aspire, but seasoned traders, fortunately, know better. And the Chinese, in case the US authorities doubt this, happen to be pretty fair traders as well as business people.

But, let’s not get hung up on stuff we already know. Let’s pay more attention to the future. What I mean is: are we starting to zero in on prospects for our portfolios for the next Bull market?—you know, the time when our decisions are made with a longer than day-to-day or week-to-week orientation… Yes, decisions based on fundamental, quantitative and economic reasons as well as the technical analysis that we seem just to be focused on these days.

Maybe not at these price levels, but not far off in some situations, I think a Bull case can be made for the likes of IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC), General Electric (GE), Exxon (XOM), Wal-Mart (WMT), Procter & Gamble (PG), Toyota Motor (TM), Research In Motion (RIMM), Google (GOOG) and a few smaller ones like Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Suncor (SU) and even a value play like Tata Motors (TTM). There are many European companies like Nokia (NOK), ABB (ABB) and Diageo (DEO) and Brazilian companies (several) I like as well.

My point is that if you are not watching these stocks, at least week to week, you will not be ready to execute trades somewhere near the cycle bottom. In a couple months there could be a massive sell-off that scares the daylights out of you, and if you are not prepared to let the falling prices come to you at that point, you will be too busy running with the crowd, and settling for smaller Total Returns in the future.

Trading is about preparation. Managing a securities portfolio is, like Charles Dow wrote over 100 years ago, much like running any business based on strategies and tactics. Effective trading that is based on a plan helps you accomplish your goals.

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Global Economics Review

The macro-economic data continues to worsen, both in America and abroad.

Weekly International Economic Report .

Please check to see if the date of the report is current.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Producer Price Index for June. Econoday reported: “PPI in June accelerated dramatically at the headline level but remained moderate at the core level. The overall rate remained red hot with a 1.8 percent jump, following a 1.4 percent spike the month before. The June increase was well above the market projection for a 1.4 percent jump. The core PPI rate, however, held steady at a 0.2 percent rise and fell short of market expectations for a 0.3 percent gain. The headline number was led by a monthly 6.0 percent surge in energy costs and a 1.5 percent gain in food prices. Within energy, gasoline spiked 9.0 percent for the month and is up 39.7 percent for the year.”

I believe that if, as and when energy costs fall, as appears likely, both inflation numbers will fall for the next few months, which will serve to push the $USD level higher, setting the stage for a broad market bottom and a final move down in the precious metals prices.

This scenario is not a given because the speculators behind oil and precious metals will make a concerted effort to hold the line on prices.

US Retail Sales for June. As I opined a week ago, “US Retailers ($RLX) continues to get hammered, so the data is not likely to come out looking good for June.” After the data was released, Econoday reported: “Retail sales for June were disappointing with income tax rebate checks apparently going mostly into drivers' gasoline tanks. Overall retail sales posted a modest 0.1 percent in gain in June, following a 0.8 percent boost the month before. The headline number was considerably softer than the market forecast for a 0.5 percent increase. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales increased a strong 0.8 percent in June, after advancing 1.2 percent the month before. The consensus expectations for ex-auto sales were for a 1.0 percent increase. However, strength was mostly due to higher gasoline prices. When excluding both motor vehicles and gasoline, sales advanced 0.2 percent, after rising 0.8 percent in May.”

The rebate program was an unmitigated disaster, serving only to help speculators keep the price of oil high, and more downward pressure on the $USD. Without the funds in hand, the public was forced to drive less, and the lower demand sank the price of oil. As long as the US economy remains weak, and there is no US military escalation, there will be significant downward pressure on the oil price. What we knew two and three months ago about “peak oil” is what we know today, which is not helping to hold the line on prices. Hence, the argument, while to an extent valid, is not a major factor in having the oil price above say 80 to 90.

I still believe we are in a secular Bull market for oil and precious metals that will last for many years, but for now I believe the speculators are being taken out of the market by central banks and other regulators, and by tighter credit in the banking system. This is a typical late-cycle action.

US Consumer Price Index report for June. Before the data was released, I opined: “This report is not expected to improve.” Afterwards, Econoday noted: “Consumer price inflation got even hotter in June. The headline CPI soared 1.1 percent, following a 0.6 percent surge the month before. June's boost was above the consensus forecast for a 0.8 percent jump. The core rate firmed to a 0.3 percent increase after a 0.2 percent rise in May. The market had forecast a 0.2 percent increase. Once again, energy led the surge in overall inflation with a monthly 6.6 percent increase, following a 4.4 percent gain in May. Gasoline was up a monthly 10.1 percent after rising 5.7 percent in May. Food inflation accelerated sharply with a 0.8 percent jump in June, following 0.3 percent increase the month before.”

Don’t underestimate the lagging pressure on demand or the impact on all costs that high oil prices have had, which goes to say that as oil prices fall, I think demand will stay weak for a while longer but prices will come down more quickly. The result ought to be that traders are not so concerned about inflation, and will shift their focus elsewhere in the next couple months.

US Industrial Production report for June. After the data was released, Econoday noted: “Overall industrial production rebounded 0.5 percent in June, following a 0.2 percent decline in May. The June gain was above the market forecast for no change. The manufacturing component made a 0.2 percent comeback, after slipping 0.1 percent in May. Utilities output increased 2.1 percent in June while mining output rose 1.1 percent.” It’s because of improvements here that economists are looking for a GDP growth of +1.8% for 2008 for the US vs say +1.0% for Canada, +1.8% for UK, and +1.2% for Japan.

Traders on the other hand are questioning the ability of banks to finance much if any growth when they are in need of write-downs and much more capital raises. So, while these IP numbers are looking better, I don’t know if in fact traders are yet convinced that it will be translated into higher broad earnings. Still, it is encouraging and supports my view that the Bear is beginning its final phase.

US Housing Starts report for June. Before the release of the data, I opined, “It may take a year or more for this industry to turn around. Interest rates staying down, oil prices falling, and personal incomes growing will be the keys.” Afterwards, Econoday noted: “Housing starts in June posted an unexpected rebound and provide welcome news in tandem with today's better-than-expected earnings news and jobless claims. However, strength was lopsided - mainly in NYC and based on a one-time change in regulations. Starts rebounded 9.1 percent, following a 2.7 percent decline in May. The June pace of 1.066 million units annualized was down 26.9 percent year-on-year and was above than the market forecast for a 0.960 million units. However, the June rebound was led by a 42.5 percent monthly surge in multifamily starts as single-family starts fell 5.3 percent. The surge in multifamily starts reflected the enactment of more restrictive building codes in NYC effective July 1, 2008 which created a rush to get permits before that date which in turn boosted starts. The single-family starts pace of 0.647 million was down from 0.683 million in May and was down 43.0 percent on a year-ago basis.”

The details show that the industry issues are unresolved. One impact of higher oil prices is the demand for inner-city housing, which of course is multi-family units. People are rejecting their suburban lifestyle, including their gas-guzzling SUV’s and trucks. They discovered that in the semi-rural areas, the demand for houses crunched prices whereas the prices in the inner-city held up much better. Traders are people too; they follow the money.

How is next week’s calendar looking?

US Economic Calendar.

US Existing Home Sales for June. This is a bigger market than new home sales, and the health of the market affects people much more.

US New Home Sales for June. Obviously this data impacts the home-builders and the employment situation more.

In today’s Toronto Star, the outstanding columnist David Olive writes something about how new housing has impacted the richer economies, “The current economic slowdown may look global, but it might turn out to be the first in history that hits rich countries harder than developing ones. The contagion of weak U.S. growth has spread to Europe and Japan, the world's second- and third-largest economies, respectively. Prolonged economic booms in Australia, Ireland and Canada finally have faded; no one's talking these days about the "Irish miracle" now that Irish job growth and housing values are in decline.

Jobless construction workers now queue up at 5 a.m. outside the Águeda Diez unemployment benefits office in the Carabanchel district of Madrid. Until 2006, Spain was building more houses – about 700,000 a year – than Britain, France and Germany combined. But the Spanish housing market now is in a deep slump, and construction giant Martinsa-Fadesa SA, with debts of 5.2 billion euros, last Tuesday made Spain's largest-ever bankruptcy filing.”

People’s excesses in 2005-2006 led directly to wealth destruction. I warned of it at the time, and said that the problem was not just US-based.

US Durable Goods Orders for June. After the May report, Econoday noted: “Durable goods orders in May came in largely as expected but despite market relief, indicate at best a flat manufacturing sector. Durable goods orders were unchanged in May, following a 1.0 percent drop in April. May's overall number matched market forecasts for no change. However, excluding the transportation component, new orders fell back 0.9 percent, following a 1.9 percent surge in April. April was revised down somewhat for both overall orders and ex-transportation. For the latest month, strength was in civilian and defense aircraft orders.” This report is important to those who are trading companies like BA, ERJ, HON, UTX, WHR, BC, etc.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

Finally, there was some relief for the Bulls.

There were 6 of 10 sectors that lifted in price. There were 25 of 30 Dow components that were up.

The DJIA index gained +396 points (+3.57% W/W) to 11497. The S&P 500 was up too, but not so much. The S&P gained +21.19 points (+1.71%) to 1260.68.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 small cap indexes fared better than the S&P 500. The NASDAQ gained +43.70 (+1.95%) to 2282.78 and the R2K was up +18.13 (+2.69% W/W) to 693.08.

If you recall, the Russell Small Cap index had gained +0.67% on the prior Friday, so that was a solid six days.

A week ago amid all the doom and gloom of ten straight bad weeks, I wrote: “The key now is to see if the Fed statement will goose the Financials (and with it the Consumer Discretionary) stocks, and how the Techs respond.” As you saw, the Financials (XLF) gained +10.2% while the Tech (XLK) was lagging at up just +1.1%. The problem there was Google (GOOG -9.8%) and Ebay (EBAY -14.4%).

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week, there were 6 sectors up and 4 down, which was 2 better than eack of the two previous weeks and 3 better than the one before that.

Did I see this coming? Yes. I wrote in this space a week ago, “So, maybe the immediate worst is over? I think so, my DJIA=11,000 target was hit at about 10,970 on Friday.”

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLF	20.65	0.47	2.33%	10.19%	3.56%	-9.19%	-27.19%	-21.93%	-19.02%	-42.96%
XLY	28.65	0.00	0.00%	7.06%	2.14%	-7.58%	-11.02%	-10.66%	-2.95%	-28.16%
SMH	29.72	-0.08	-0.27%	5.43%	3.55%	-6.19%	-5.23%	-2.24%	6.49%	-26.25%
XLI	34.30	0.22	0.65%	3.47%	2.66%	-6.49%	-10.93%	-10.49%	-1.10%	-16.61%
IYH	64.15	-0.20	-0.31%	2.20%	3.80%	2.97%	-8.49%	0.72%	-7.56%	-9.17%
SPY	125.98	0.78	0.62%	1.73%	-0.26%	-6.29%	-13.08%	-9.03%	-4.70%	-18.44%
IYZ	23.30	0.09	0.39%	1.30%	1.08%	-7.54%	-20.12%	-2.84%	-7.61%	-33.12%
XLK	22.50	-0.06	-0.27%	1.08%	0.67%	-7.22%	-13.86%	-5.54%	-2.60%	-15.73%
XLB	39.58	0.18	0.46%	-0.30%	0.33%	-10.96%	-4.16%	-10.78%	5.97%	-8.19%
XLP	26.85	-0.34	-1.25%	-0.67%	0.67%	-2.36%	-5.42%	-3.97%	-1.10%	-2.04%
XLU	38.75	0.26	0.68%	-4.27%	-4.04%	-6.92%	-7.94%	-4.34%	-3.20%	-4.32%
XLE	76.73	1.03	1.36%	-6.52%	-9.62%	-11.43%	-3.48%	-8.35%	11.36%	4.14%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PTR	130.47	1.18	0.91%	2.85%	5.31%	-7.13%	-24.87%	3.42%	-15.91%	-14.38%
SLB	100.55	3.77	3.90%	1.40%	-1.31%	-4.08%	-0.03%	-1.28%	26.45%	10.25%
RIG	144.02	1.90	1.34%	-0.69%	0.78%	-2.75%	-1.32%	-9.24%	12.16%	34.02%
XOM	81.54	1.21	1.51%	-4.61%	-7.62%	-4.95%	-12.80%	-13.26%	-4.16%	-10.54%
TOT	75.58	0.80	1.07%	-5.50%	-6.31%	-5.31%	-9.25%	-6.88%	-3.36%	-10.01%
ECA	78.18	0.76	0.98%	-5.75%	-12.07%	-13.80%	12.31%	-9.34%	25.65%	22.42%
PBR	58.06	0.04	0.07%	-5.91%	-11.66%	-12.89%	-51.13%	-53.73%	-38.48%	-16.46%
IMO	48.40	0.31	0.64%	-6.18%	-8.56%	-12.82%	-11.87%	-17.90%	-1.55%	-2.06%
CVX	86.05	0.38	0.44%	-6.72%	-12.75%	-11.16%	-7.93%	-7.65%	3.10%	-7.55%
CEO	154.05	-3.06	-1.95%	-8.01%	-9.91%	-5.61%	-7.99%	-13.61%	2.69%	27.84%
SU	54.62	0.51	0.94%	-9.22%	-4.81%	-11.30%	-0.93%	-5.99%	20.73%	15.57%
STO	31.21	0.08	0.26%	-10.26%	-13.18%	-16.93%	-0.10%	-7.66%	17.51%	-4.23%

Crude Oil ($WTIC -$16.19/bbl -11.11% to 129.47) and the sector ETF (XLE -6.52% to 76.73) were chilling to speculators who had driven the prices to over-bought levels.

Did I see it coming? I wrote here last week. “…after a couple weeks of stunning gains… A week ago I wrote here after those humungous gains: But traders are now thinking these gains to top-line prices are unsustainable. XLE lost -1.84% to close at 84.90. Thursday’s (last trading day in the week) loss was -1.53%. Margin requirements for many of the NYMEX energy contracts were raised this week… Ergo: this week the Energy ETF (XLE) dropped -3.32% to close at 82.08… Big Oil (US style anyway) was clobbered with Chevron (CVX) plunging -6.5% and Exxon (XOM) down -3.2%... I believe that lower Crude Oil prices could fuel the summer rally in equities (except the Energy stocks).”

Market volatility could swing prices for the $WTIC and XLE back and forth here, but I believe the trend is down. If it’s not, then I believe the whole broad market sinks rapidly now instead of in say 6 to 8 weeks.

PetroChina (PTR) was a winner gaining +2.9% to 130.47. But there was a low this week of 120.31, which was well off the 52-week high of 266.81 on Oct 17-07. No matter what the prospects for the regional economy and the company, traders cannot continue to buy and hold. PTR is a good example.

Losers this week were Statoil (STO -10.3%), Suncor (SU -9.2%), China National Offshore (CEO -8.0%) and the Dow components Chevron and Exxon (CVX -6.7% and -4.6%).

More to come, but this is a solid sector for the future Bull, which means you need to start looking at the potential winners, and XOM, SU and PTR are ones I like at a price. The bigger the account (presumably longer term oriented), the more that it’s advisable to write puts on market pull-back days. But don’t chase them. Let them come to you.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DOW	33.95	0.03	0.09%	7.10%	-0.44%	-11.33%	-12.39%	-15.08%	-2.83%	-28.01%
VCP	25.90	-1.15	-4.25%	0.15%	-0.58%	-11.63%	-12.79%	-17.54%	0.27%	-5.34%
AA	33.81	0.07	0.21%	-2.40%	3.14%	-13.57%	-6.42%	-6.76%	16.19%	-27.21%
PKX	120.40	-1.48	-1.21%	-4.18%	3.59%	-11.34%	-17.79%	3.38%	-7.23%	-16.49%
GGB	21.04	0.01	0.05%	-5.05%	-1.73%	-59.18%	-26.69%	-43.53%	-16.51%	-24.04%
TCK	40.02	0.13	0.33%	-6.32%	-9.93%	-17.55%	10.43%	-15.98%	35.34%	-17.76%
BHP	71.86	0.31	0.43%	-6.41%	-7.03%	-17.18%	2.06%	-11.24%	18.35%	9.23%
RTP	401.50	-2.50	-0.62%	-6.90%	-7.34%	-16.27%	-4.34%	-18.11%	9.25%	31.77%
RIO	29.13	0.17	0.59%	-7.55%	-9.20%	-19.26%	-10.94%	-23.20%	1.04%	-43.12%
NUE	58.55	-1.26	-2.11%	-10.43%	-6.38%	-24.27%	1.00%	-20.79%	14.31%	-6.05%
TS	60.48	-2.08	-3.32%	-11.06%	-9.85%	-11.55%	36.25%	11.38%	65.61%	20.41%
MT	78.22	-1.75	-2.19%	-11.89%	-6.66%	-23.08%	2.38%	-11.91%	24.75%	19.55%

Basic Materials (XLB -0.30% to 39.58) was down a few pennies. Traders are watching what happens to the Oil price. If it continues to come down, the Refiners and the Chemicals ought to do better (their margins increase). The major consumers of fuel will also be helped, like the major mining companies. But the goldminers will be hampered because gold bullion usually tracks oil and lower oil also leads to a stronger market and a higher $USD.

The economy is also a great leveler. For the past couple weeks I have been noting that the Papers and Chemicals have fared badly. A week ago, I added the Steels and Base Metal Miners to the scrap pile. Then, a week ago, the Steels did rather well: PKX of South Korea was up +8.1% and Mittal (MT) lifted +5.9%.

But this week was different: MT dropped -11.9%, TS -11.1% and NUE -10.4% were very weak. So too were the world’s major miners: RIO -7.6%, RTP -6.9% and BHP -6.4%.

DOW (-7.0% a week ago) was the winner here this week, rising +7.1%.

The table source data for GGB does not recognize the share split, which occurred several months ago. Eventually this data will correct itself.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BA	68.14	1.22	1.82%	7.68%	5.69%	-11.45%	-21.33%	-13.37%	-13.09%	-33.08%
FDX	79.52	0.47	0.59%	7.55%	6.07%	-2.70%	-7.71%	-17.77%	-5.34%	-31.78%
ABB	28.27	0.11	0.39%	6.20%	3.29%	-8.98%	-1.29%	1.07%	19.38%	17.40%
UTX	64.09	-0.61	-0.94%	5.60%	4.98%	-6.87%	-14.79%	-11.61%	-5.82%	-15.18%
ERJ	28.42	-0.87	-2.97%	4.99%	16.38%	-4.79%	-37.03%	-32.69%	-32.48%	-40.80%
UPS	60.81	1.04	1.74%	4.86%	2.25%	-9.02%	-12.07%	-16.91%	-9.46%	-19.14%
HON	50.66	-0.20	-0.39%	2.74%	0.70%	-8.47%	-15.43%	-16.94%	-8.39%	-16.32%
CAT	70.89	-0.94	-1.31%	1.55%	0.82%	-10.81%	0.37%	-16.87%	12.86%	-17.79%
GE	28.00	0.00	0.00%	1.23%	4.05%	0.32%	-23.83%	-14.35%	-18.39%	-30.78%
MMM	68.94	-0.51	-0.73%	0.32%	-0.75%	-6.99%	-16.65%	-16.84%	-7.97%	-24.64%
FLR	84.25	-2.43	-2.80%	-3.57%	-6.35%	-11.25%	16.69%	5.25%	43.87%	41.74%
TXT	41.60	-1.65	-3.82%	-9.62%	-13.04%	-21.12%	-37.73%	-31.77%	-22.24%	-27.93%

The Industrials (XLI +3.47% W/W) had a big week, closing at 34.30.

I noted that a week ago there was a loss in XLI, but “But, these results are improved over recent weeks… ERJ, the Brazilian aircraft maker, was up +10.9%. Lower fuel prices ought to generate more sales orders. ERJ and BA were getting trashed with record-setting oil prices, but now it may be that the bloom is off the energy rose, which will help the makers of fuel users and those companies that are huge consumers.”

As you noted, the crashing oil price (and the European air show where the big sales are made) led to the aircraft manufacturers having a big week: BA +7.7% and ERJ +5.0% were strong.

Big fuel consumers Fedex (FDX +7.6%) and UPS (UPS +4.9%) were also big winners. And so were ABB (ABB +6.2%) and United Technologies (UTX +5.6%). TXT dropped -9.6%, following a loss of -3.8% a week earlier.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CCL	36.64	0.23	0.63%	20.96%	14.89%	-0.54%	-16.08%	-13.75%	-4.23%	-22.93%
BC	11.96	0.22	1.87%	19.96%	17.83%	-3.94%	-29.31%	-25.48%	-20.74%	-62.94%
WHR	68.50	0.85	1.26%	10.13%	12.55%	5.38%	-14.25%	-16.47%	-4.24%	-40.16%
GOL	9.300	-0.260	-2.72%	8.77%	0.00%	-31.16%	-61.23%	-38.82%	-50.45%	-68.68%
BBBY	29.29	-0.69	-2.30%	7.49%	3.06%	-1.31%	3.28%	-9.57%	8.28%	-18.62%
BDK	57.50	-1.57	-2.66%	6.03%	1.72%	-3.62%	-17.77%	-15.85%	-12.55%	-38.31%
DIS	30.90	-0.30	-0.96%	5.82%	0.00%	-6.05%	-2.95%	-1.37%	8.38%	-10.69%
TGT	46.87	-0.70	-1.47%	4.76%	-0.06%	-9.52%	-5.33%	-14.16%	-6.45%	-31.09%
NKE	58.20	-0.36	-0.61%	3.45%	-0.55%	-14.21%	-8.03%	-14.27%	3.01%	-2.48%
JCP	31.71	-0.34	-1.06%	3.12%	-13.57%	-14.87%	-23.87%	-21.30%	-22.53%	-57.84%
TM	89.29	-0.76	-0.84%	-1.36%	-2.95%	-12.59%	-16.13%	-12.07%	-10.44%	-27.18%
EBAY	23.98	-0.22	-0.91%	-14.39%	-10.52%	-17.79%	-26.19%	-24.38%	-15.35%	-29.57%

Consumer Cyclicals (XLY +7.06% closing at 28.65) recovered strongly from the hammering (-4.60%) of a week earlier.

The big Cara 100 losers here of recent weeks [I wrote here two weeks ago, “High fuel costs are killing many of these stocks] were huge winners this week. Cruise ship operator Carnival Cruises (CCL +21.0%), small yacht builder Brunswick (BC +20.0%), and Brazilian airline GOL (GOL +8.8%) had major gains. So too did Whirlpool (WHR +10.1%) because the average person can afford washing machines etc if they aren’t spending so much to fuel up their vehicles.

Ebay (EBAY -14.4%) was a big loser.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PDA	53.53	-0.32	-0.59%	9.58%	10.69%	-9.35%	11.22%	5.64%	25.78%	36.94%
DEO	73.56	-0.65	-0.88%	6.58%	2.90%	0.34%	-13.52%	-11.49%	-5.23%	-13.48%
ABV	61.04	-0.94	-1.52%	3.58%	2.11%	-8.98%	-15.78%	-20.51%	-9.56%	-18.13%
WAG	34.18	-0.13	-0.38%	2.67%	8.89%	-2.70%	-8.46%	-4.95%	1.39%	-23.71%
SBUX	14.34	-0.05	-0.35%	1.99%	-7.84%	-20.29%	-25.74%	-21.55%	-23.15%	-45.89%
WFMI	21.38	-1.14	-5.06%	1.62%	-5.86%	-19.53%	-46.23%	-35.11%	-39.05%	-47.40%
WMT	57.92	0.24	0.42%	1.24%	2.51%	0.43%	23.50%	2.86%	21.73%	20.57%
PEP	65.41	-0.12	-0.18%	1.16%	-2.04%	-0.73%	-13.12%	-7.35%	-8.47%	-1.09%
BUD	67.11	0.06	0.09%	0.92%	8.82%	9.93%	29.98%	39.96%	37.63%	34.22%
PG	63.67	-0.22	-0.34%	0.35%	0.00%	-1.90%	-11.95%	-5.21%	-5.18%	1.73%
KO	50.03	-0.31	-0.62%	-0.48%	-2.82%	-6.24%	-18.10%	-16.77%	-17.63%	-6.36%
KR	28.12	-1.04	-3.57%	-2.60%	-4.52%	6.15%	9.54%	12.48%	10.75%	-3.37%

Consumer Staples (XLP -0.67% W/W to 26.85) reversed field on Friday with a loss of -1.25%.

Kroger (KR -2.6%) was down while Perdigao (PDA) jumped +9.6% and Diageo (DEO) gained +6.6%.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
UNH	23.90	0.32	1.36%	7.85%	4.09%	-14.31%	-57.83%	-35.84%	-56.07%	-55.39%
BMY	22.23	-0.31	-1.38%	5.26%	6.98%	11.60%	-14.93%	0.59%	-9.19%	-30.64%
DNA	81.82	0.66	0.81%	5.23%	4.98%	9.01%	21.39%	12.51%	18.98%	8.70%
AMGN	52.56	-0.63	-1.18%	3.02%	3.38%	17.16%	12.79%	22.03%	10.77%	-5.81%
PFE	18.32	-0.07	-0.38%	2.86%	3.21%	3.10%	-20.03%	-10.50%	-18.61%	-27.10%
JNJ	67.82	-0.01	-0.01%	2.35%	4.15%	4.95%	2.90%	1.97%	2.31%	9.04%
MDT	53.43	-0.67	-1.24%	2.04%	4.64%	3.97%	7.94%	6.88%	13.71%	2.89%
WLP	46.25	0.18	0.39%	0.72%	-1.91%	-10.99%	-46.84%	-4.52%	-44.20%	-44.32%
NVS	57.16	-0.11	-0.19%	0.60%	1.15%	12.63%	4.75%	19.61%	6.78%	7.12%
GSK	47.79	0.82	1.75%	0.57%	2.18%	9.51%	-4.74%	10.32%	-5.23%	-8.61%
AET	35.22	-0.47	-1.32%	-2.79%	-5.17%	-15.84%	-37.82%	-15.72%	-37.21%	-30.94%
NVO	61.98	-1.26	-1.99%	-3.34%	-2.39%	-3.41%	-2.85%	-12.95%	3.94%	-43.89%

The Healthcare sector (IYH) gained +2.20% to close at 64.15. Some of the health insurance stocks gained along with the Financials. United Health (UNH) was up +7.9%.

Bristol Myers (BMY +5.3%) and Genentech (DNA +5.2%) also gained.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
LEH	19.11	0.21	1.11%	32.43%	-16.37%	-21.87%	-69.27%	-58.00%	-64.11%	-73.33%
JPM	40.02	-0.78	-1.91%	20.69%	13.34%	3.54%	-5.10%	-12.54%	1.57%	-17.89%
C	19.35	1.38	7.68%	19.52%	15.04%	-4.07%	-33.09%	-22.94%	-20.86%	-62.50%
MS	38.57	0.25	0.65%	15.34%	7.41%	-4.03%	-24.30%	-19.26%	-14.50%	-45.56%
IBN	30.00	0.98	3.38%	12.74%	10.58%	-15.66%	-51.73%	-28.88%	-51.88%	-41.80%
GS	182.84	1.60	0.88%	12.53%	2.21%	-2.19%	-11.93%	1.62%	-2.33%	-14.95%
MER	30.91	0.18	0.59%	11.95%	-0.67%	-17.99%	-41.41%	-34.72%	-40.41%	-62.94%
UBS	21.48	0.96	4.68%	10.21%	5.71%	-6.89%	-53.09%	-39.18%	-46.30%	-64.62%
BBD	21.87	0.75	3.55%	9.40%	8.48%	-0.64%	-28.13%	0.88%	-18.82%	-21.58%
CS	44.43	0.74	1.69%	7.55%	0.70%	-5.47%	-25.55%	-16.88%	-13.85%	-39.23%
HBC	78.95	1.69	2.19%	7.31%	3.94%	-1.44%	-4.23%	-6.95%	5.93%	-15.70%
DB	89.17	1.86	2.13%	5.92%	2.35%	-6.10%	-30.91%	-26.65%	-22.29%	-39.15%

As I wrote at the top, the Financials (XLF +10.19%) snapped a 10-week losing skid, closing at 20.65.

A week ago, I wrote: “This week the losers were LEH (-36.9%), which is now down –79.8% over 52 weeks. MER also dropped -11.3% and GS -9.2% this week.” This week was a turn-about as LEH +32.4%, MER +12.0%, GS +12.5%, JPM +20.7%, C +19.5%, MS +15.3%, and UBS +10.2% all rode the short-covering rocket to higher levels.

The hype was started when a couple banks, including Citi reported less of a huge loss than was expected. But it’s all funny arithmetic anyway, so why care?

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ADSK	36.01	0.02	0.06%	8.96%	6.04%	-7.19%	-25.35%	8.24%	-12.68%	-23.01%
INTC	22.09	0.10	0.45%	7.03%	6.92%	-3.33%	-12.86%	-2.04%	16.26%	-11.85%
ADBE	41.98	0.44	1.06%	6.98%	3.94%	-0.05%	0.65%	15.74%	18.82%	1.38%
SAP	55.44	0.04	0.07%	6.86%	6.53%	5.32%	9.28%	6.72%	12.91%	6.72%
SNDK	17.57	-0.55	-3.04%	6.10%	-4.67%	-25.04%	-47.03%	-35.88%	-36.66%	-69.26%
RIMM	112.85	2.07	1.87%	2.79%	-1.90%	-23.52%	-0.76%	-8.42%	27.40%	46.92%
ORCL	21.18	0.32	1.53%	1.05%	2.17%	-6.70%	-5.82%	-2.84%	-1.85%	3.77%
INFY	38.42	-1.32	-3.32%	0.73%	-9.81%	-17.13%	-13.53%	-10.82%	1.05%	-27.03%
CTSH	28.09	-0.63	-2.19%	-0.25%	-11.67%	-23.48%	-12.85%	-9.27%	8.04%	-33.89%
CSCO	21.66	0.14	0.65%	-0.73%	-6.31%	-15.13%	-18.39%	-11.63%	-10.86%	-26.43%
AAPL	165.15	-6.66	-3.88%	-4.31%	-2.92%	-8.71%	-15.24%	2.55%	2.35%	19.57%
QCOM	45.19	-0.37	-0.81%	-6.50%	0.31%	-10.27%	17.71%	6.20%	17.84%	0.20%

Tech (XLK +1.08% to 22.50) and Semi-conductors (SMH +5.43% to 29.72) were strong, largely due to Intel (INTC) and SanDisk (SNDK) shooting up +7.0% and +6.1% respectively.

-0.40% W/W closing at 22.26) was down, but hardly a weak performer. On Friday, the loss was -0.76%. Look for the positive action here on Monday, I think.

A week ago I warned after there were more losses here. I wrote, “Intel (INTC) was flat. The Value Line report on Friday looks good. But, SanDisk (SNDK -10.2% W/W as well as -7.5%, -9.1%, -11.9% and -13.0% the prior four weeks) is now down -67.9% over 52-weeks. Really, you don’t want to be sitting in this one on the ride down. It’s a long elevator down, but after the reversal, it will be a quick ride up too. Watch this one closely… As I wrote here a week ago, If the bottom looks near, and the broad market ready to rally (if!), you could consider some SNDK put writes and call purchases, with offsetting premiums. But, your bias would have to be positive for the upcoming share price…You see, I’m not encouraging you to stand on a railway track. Your portfolio couldn’t handle the mess. But, if your timing on re-entry is good, this could be a big winner for you. The drawback is that Consumer Discretionary stocks have to rally too, and that will take money ringing up the cash registers. You see, SanDisk makes a lot of the chips that are embedded in consumer electronics like mp3 and digital camera memory, for instance.”

My logic was good because Consumer Discretionary (XLY) jumped +7.1% this week. Now we have to see if there is a follow-through by traders or do they see XLY/SMH coming back with the XLF, if that is to happen.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Telecom (IYZ +1.30% W/W) closed at 23.30.

A week ago, I wrote here: “Maybe its string of many bad losing weeks in a row is over for now. Verizon (VZ) -2.1% W/W was a loser again, but AT&T (T) was flat W/W… If the Financials do ok next week, that will probably mean that bond yields will fall, and the competitive yield on the T and VZ will be more attractive. It’s a shot.”

Bingo. Financials jumped +10.2%, Treasury yields pushed higher by +12 to +14 basis points as the 30-year Bond dropped from 115.84 to 114.33 and the TLT from 92.20 to 90.45 (a loss of -1.90% W/W). AT&T lost a bit (T -1.4%) but Verizon (VZ +1.6%) gained, and the IYZ sector ETF gained +1.30%.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

Utilities (XLU -4.27% W/W), closing down at 38.75. It was affected by lower oil prices. XLU did lose -0.78% on the previous Friday, so that’s over -6.0% in six sessions.

As I wrote a week ago, “Note that my simple little RSI-7 system doesn’t work too well for Utilities, Healthcare and Consumer Staples. Just a heads-up.”

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	1.41	1.32	1.48	1.85
6 Month	1.85	1.79	1.94	2.20
2 Year	2.63	2.49	2.58	2.85
3 Year	2.54	2.42	2.51	2.83
5 Year	3.41	3.27	3.27	3.55
10 Year	4.08	3.99	3.95	4.13
30 Year	4.65	4.61	4.53	4.71

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.29	2.31	2.39	2.47
2yr AAA	2.19	2.35	2.32	2.44
2yr A	2.53	2.41	2.54	2.92
5yr AAA	2.91	2.94	2.86	3.18
5yr AA	2.92	3.00	3.01	3.22
5yr A	3.10	3.08	3.08	3.38
10yr AAA	3.66	3.66	3.66	3.87
10yr AA	3.64	3.58	3.60	3.83
10yr A	3.69	3.64	3.63	3.94
20yr AAA	4.85	4.76	4.70	4.64
20yr AA	4.77	4.73	4.62	4.62
20yr A	4.70	4.67	4.62	4.59

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.47	4.40	4.27	4.29
2yr A	4.92	5.07	4.73	4.51
5yr AAA	5.18	5.10	5.10	5.03
5yr AA	5.80	5.66	5.38	5.52
5yr A	6.40	6.46	5.89	5.69
10yr AAA	5.48	5.35	5.35	5.76
10yr AA	6.39	6.28	6.02	6.24
10yr A	6.40	6.32	6.11	5.98
20yr AAA	6.51	7.03	6.55	6.35
20yr AA	6.30	6.82	6.95	6.32
20yr A	6.76	7.28	6.81	6.60

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As I noted a week ago, “Bond prices were crushed on Friday after word went around that the Fed and Treasury were going to lighten the load for Fannie and Freddie. Yields went up and prices down. Same old. Same old.” This week, those losses continued.

For the week, the yields for the US Treasury 2-year, 5-year ($FVX), 10-year ($TNX) and 30-year ($TYX) gained +5 basis points, +14 bp, +13 bp and +12 bp respectively, causing some large losses in bond portfolios.

The yield on T-Bills dropped -7 bp as traders continued to go to cash and short-term Treasury paper, but not in the way they did for several weeks previously.

The T-Bill yield dropped to 1.41%, which shows me the pressure is still on the Financials, regardless of their flash gains this week.

The 20-year TLT closed at 90.45, down -1.90%, including a loss of -0.37% on Friday.

Interesting how accurate I was a week ago in writing, “Bond investors are worried about what the Fed and Treasury are concocting for Fannie and Freddie. They also ought to be concerned about the US PPI and CPI data next week. Could be a perfect storm for rising yields on all but T-Bills, which might fall even more.”

Yes, the yields on all but the T-Bills lifted and the yield on the Bills fell. Interesting how I can make such accurate pure guesses. LOL.

Well, you did read the PPI and CPI data at the top. It was awful.

Now, I’m thinking (as you can read above) that the focus will reverse and maybe bonds might recover a bit, and the $USD might strengthen a bit. Traders who are looking to unload bonds should want to sell into strength. Yes, we may be in for a couple months where the focus is off inflation, but I think the long-term $USD Bear is still here and that means that commodity prices, while maybe weakening short term, are likely to find a cycle bottom and then continue their long-term Bull.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	13.40	2.47	22.60%	30.73%	-28.65%	-46.40%	-64.23%	-53.06%	-58.32%	-79.50%
FRE	9.180	0.850	10.20%	18.45%	-36.69%	-61.18%	-71.96%	-66.08%	-66.81%	-85.01%
AVB	93.32	0.10	0.11%	6.97%	7.30%	-3.22%	2.16%	-7.70%	12.19%	-21.96%
DRE	23.56	0.07	0.30%	6.70%	4.25%	1.25%	-8.04%	-1.79%	10.40%	-35.47%
NLY	15.04	0.26	1.76%	5.25%	-3.59%	-8.96%	-16.91%	-11.32%	-17.54%	6.52%
EQR	41.30	-0.01	-0.02%	5.17%	9.17%	-0.75%	13.37%	-2.57%	26.22%	-10.31%
SHY	82.69	-0.15	-0.18%	-0.05%	-0.13%	0.49%	0.43%	-0.80%	-0.65%	3.27%
IEF	87.22	-0.30	-0.34%	-0.84%	-0.56%	1.18%	-0.47%	-2.48%	-2.67%	7.72%
TIP	106.60	-0.49	-0.46%	-0.94%	-1.39%	1.26%	-0.04%	-0.89%	-1.75%	7.80%
AGG	98.98	-0.58	-0.58%	-1.25%	-0.60%	-0.58%	-2.63%	-2.96%	-4.14%	0.83%
TLT	90.45	-0.34	-0.37%	-1.90%	-1.76%	1.30%	-4.16%	-2.50%	-5.28%	6.15%
CFC	4.2500	-0.1700	-3.85%	-4.49%	-15.00%	-20.11%	-52.78%	-24.51%	-51.43%	-88.31%

As the Wall Street Journal reported last Sunday afternoon, the Treasury made a statement supportive of beleaguered mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and that helped the Financials this week.

As I alerted, “A little too late, anyway. But the initial market reaction will likely involve higher bids for the Financials.” In addition to XLF rising +10.2% W/W, the Fannie (FNM +30.7%) and Freddie (FRE +18.5%) rose to ridiculous heights.

Well, maybe not so ridiculous when you figure the US taxpayer is being forced to back these (almost state-controlled) companies. So much for free markets that Paulson and Bernanke talk about.

As noted a week ago, “Tied to vested interests in Washington, (these companies) do what they are told and are paid handsomely. Like Russia, it’s the public that suffers when business and government sleep in the same bed.”

What can you do? It’s the system.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB lost -34.26 -7.42% to 427.17. a week ago, I warned that “…there has been a loss over two weeks, while most traders have assumed just the opposite.”

A couple weeks ago, I stated: “The NYMEX has started raising margin requirements. This will impact speculation.” Last week I added, “Count on it.”

I hope you took me seriously. It’s not easy to make the flat-out statements I do you know, so when you see them like that one, you ought to take it seriously.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) crashed -$16.19/bbl -11.11% to close at 129.47/bbl.

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 133.39 (amazing!!), and the 200d MA is 106.58!

You have to admit that I was warning you, when I wrote a week ago, “I thought we’d never see the current price above 100, nevertheless today’s price! But these are contract markets that involve excessive speculation at times, despite the rhetoric that says speculation is not a factor… I think the speculating mind-set will chill for a while, though.”

Chill or freeze?

Although I don’t have a sense of it yet, I do feel the market price will hit the 200-day MA price sometime in the next couple months.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

For the past four weeks, $GOLD gained +27.00/oz, +2.30/oz, +27.60/oz and +30.60/oz. This week, there was a loss of -$2.60/oz, but I think, what with the oil prices coming off, and the likelihood of the $USD strengthening in the short-run, that $GOLD will start to fall off faster and deeper.

That belief, however, is not shared by the gold bugs, who daily are yapping about rocketing prices to come.

The loss this week is -0.27% to 958.00. The $USD hasn’t gained much against the Euro because the German economy is looking pretty healthy compared to North America and the UK. I also attribute this to the lack of confidence of the market in Mssrs Bernanke and Paulson -- Paulson in particular.

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 909.17, and the 200d MA is 879.68.

In the market this week, $XAU, GDX and XGD lost -3.60%, -2.44% and -3.88% respectively. A week ago there were gains of +3.29%, +3.48% and +3.81%, so not much has happened over two weeks and in the week before that there were losses of -2.96%, -2.89% and -1.68%, respectively. So, these indexes have been losers in recent weeks.

I hope the majority of you appreciate what I wrote about a week ago in this space, “If you want to day trade by the hour, so be it, but if you are a typical business person, moving about during the day, you shouldn’t hope to do well. These markets can and do turn on a silver-plated dime. I could say ‘heart-beat’ but this market has no heart—just a confused brain as the newsletter writers and promoters whip up their stories as if they actually know how to trade. Not! Caveat emptor.”

I will be involved in the next two weeks in the financing of a couple exploration plays in the Ring Of Fire in the James Bay lowlands of Northern Ontario because this is about the drilling of what I think are excellent prospects, and where the success rate of previous drilling happens to be about 50%, which is outstanding. One of these is an IPO, and the other for my associate “Mr. Platinum”.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER lost -$0.62/oz -3.29% to close at 18.20. I noted each day in the Daily Report how the erosion has been constant.

A week ago, I wrote, “$SILVER gained +0.45/oz or +2.45%, closing at 18.82. The gain on Friday was +2.72%. Traders were panicked over the $USD and the Fed/Treasury/Fannie/Freddie. Don’t count on that pressure this week. As I say, long term, I think $SILVER will trade well above $21.44, which is the cycle high. As I say, “But not right away. For now, we are in a mini-deflation for speculative prices (ie, non economic prices) because the banks have no money and are seeking $USD from anybody, including from silver crazies.”

Bingo.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 17.48, and the 200d MA is 16.57.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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The writing was on the wall for the loss that $PLAT took this week. $PLAT sank -$191.90/oz -9.37% to 1855.30.

Last week I warned: “A week ago, amid the precious metals rally, I wrote: This week $PLAT lost -32.00/oz to close at 2030.40. The loss a week earlier was -6.50/oz. Over four weeks, there have been big losses in Platinum. Well, as Gold jumped +2.45% this week, $PLAT gained +0.83% (16.80/oz) to close at 2047.20. There was a loss all week and a gain of +2.44% on Friday.”

That small gain on Friday set up the big sell-off this week.

The 50-day MA is 2049.65 and the 200-day MA is 1808.07.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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There was a warning in $PLAT too. A wrote in this space in the last WIR, “A week ago, $PALLADIUM lost -4.65/oz to close at 466.55/oz. The prior week’s loss was -8.00/oz. This week, there was a loss of -5.15/oz (-1.10%) to close at 461.40. Not all precious metals are in rally mode.”

$PALL dropped -$41.50/oz -8.99% to close this week at 419.90.

The 50-day MA is now 451.90 and the 200-day MA is 426.27. Note how the current price has sunk below the 200-day MA as well as the 50-d MA. That smells like Bear country.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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A week ago, $COPPER contracts lost -20.90 (-5.29%), closing at 374.00. This week the loss was -7.10 -1.90% to 366.90. The loss on Friday was -1.24%.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 372.30 and the 200-day MA is 354.35. Not working for Glencore and the Marc Rich Metal Men in Zug Switzerland, I don’t have a clue as to how this market will play out.

I have been saying, as you know: “Even though the current price is well above the 50-day MA, I still think the 200d-MA is going to be a battleground for copper traders.” Last week, I added, “Guess what? The price is sitting right on the 50-day MA.” The current price at 374.00 is still above the 200-day MA (354.35), but for how long.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AU	35.67	-0.19	-0.53%	7.76%	6.38%	16.19%	-22.22%	-4.01%	-20.89%	-19.46%
BVN	65.83	1.52	2.36%	4.11%	5.53%	6.57%	8.13%	-6.98%	6.88%	53.88%
GFI	12.90	-0.10	-0.77%	3.53%	4.62%	18.57%	-16.23%	-9.92%	-21.25%	-27.93%
KGC	22.67	0.04	0.18%	-2.75%	-0.92%	17.64%	12.51%	-4.83%	11.13%	59.99%
ABX	47.30	-0.20	-0.42%	-3.88%	4.90%	18.04%	2.78%	8.09%	1.22%	40.02%
HMY	11.71	-0.56	-4.56%	-3.94%	-2.25%	3.90%	8.93%	-2.34%	5.88%	-21.46%
GG	45.60	0.06	0.13%	-5.57%	0.75%	12.96%	24.45%	9.72%	32.25%	68.45%
NEM	48.24	0.54	1.13%	-5.91%	-3.81%	-0.92%	-7.92%	4.26%	-8.77%	13.59%
AUY	13.97	-0.49	-3.39%	-6.30%	-12.14%	-3.52%	0.72%	-3.59%	-7.30%	11.40%
LIHR	29.67	-0.44	-1.46%	-6.67%	-1.79%	1.16%	-10.55%	-0.90%	-6.55%	6.96%
AEM	69.93	0.47	0.68%	-7.48%	-3.41%	9.27%	23.73%	-3.10%	27.19%	58.97%
EGO	7.910	-0.040	-0.50%	-7.59%	-0.63%	-2.10%	27.58%	6.46%	32.72%	68.66%

The Goldminer stock group indexes dropped this week across the board: $XAU -3.60%, GDX -2.44% and XGD -3.88%.

$XAU closed at 187.92, with a low of 185.90. The 50-day MA is 184.33 and the 200-day MA is 181.51, so the technical support is there but also very close to current prices. Any significant strength in the $USD (or weakness in the Euro) could see these stock indexes fall into Bear country.

We’ll have to watch this play out.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

This week the $USD gained +0.38% to 72.21. As I say, these are volatile and dangerous markets.

The 50-day MA is 72.83 and the 200-day MA is 74.55, so the current price is below both.

The US inflation data was on the high side this week, prompting traders to think the Fed may soon take preventative medicine in the form of a higher rate. We’ll see.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) lost -0.56% W/W, closing at 1.5845. Friday it was flat as was the $USD, so traders are undecided.

The Euro 50day MA is 1.5635 and the 200day MA is 1.5097.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound gained +0.43% W/W, closing at 1.9975.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 1.9720 and 1.9976.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lost -0.66% to close at 93.52.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 94.47 and the 200-day MA is 93.14. The current price is sitting below the 50-day MA, but just above the 20-day MA.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) gained +0.37% W/W, closing at 99.38.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 99.15 and 100.14 respectively, which means the current price (99.38) is neither Bearish nor Bullish.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Here is the China Yuan (CNY) chart.

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International Equity Markets Review

There were ups and downs this week throughout the global equity markets, but nothing too serious.

UK FTSE up from 5261.6 to 5376.4
German DAX up from 6153.3 to 6382.7
Aussie All-Ords down from 5067.8 to 4915.3
Shanghai Composite down from 2856.6 to 2778.4
HK Heng Seng down from 22184.6 to 21874.9
India’s BSE 30 up from 13470 to 13635
Japan’s Nikkei 225 down from 13039.7 to 12803.7

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I added 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices. This will come after we switch to the Drupal platform next month.

As I say, “the world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.”

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	35.52	-0.63	-1.74%	5.00%	2.19%	-15.75%	-42.62%	-27.91%	-34.22%	-23.76%
EWQ	31.66	0.33	1.05%	4.18%	0.22%	-8.39%	-16.55%	-13.62%	-8.44%	-19.32%
EWG	29.39	0.19	0.65%	2.73%	1.38%	-8.58%	-16.95%	-10.29%	-8.81%	-13.12%
EWU	20.03	0.22	1.11%	2.19%	-0.69%	-7.70%	-16.12%	-12.99%	-7.35%	-23.29%
EWS	12.36	-0.22	-1.75%	0.98%	2.15%	-3.36%	-8.38%	-9.52%	1.15%	-10.95%
EWA	25.49	-0.18	-0.70%	0.91%	-0.23%	-6.94%	-11.43%	-6.87%	-2.30%	-14.58%
EWH	16.57	0.03	0.18%	0.79%	1.47%	-8.40%	-23.96%	-11.53%	-16.94%	-8.15%
EWJ	12.04	-0.07	-0.58%	0.42%	-2.03%	-7.38%	-8.99%	-8.09%	-3.68%	-17.59%
EWC	31.62	0.16	0.51%	-0.78%	-2.11%	-8.05%	-2.41%	-4.62%	10.83%	-1.19%
EWZ	80.92	0.12	0.15%	-0.88%	-2.58%	-12.04%	-0.04%	-7.80%	14.23%	18.69%
TRF	51.38	-1.26	-2.39%	-3.11%	-5.98%	-17.18%	-30.09%	-16.52%	-14.65%	-28.13%

International ETF’s reflected the losses in the commodities markets. The three major country beneficiaries of higher commodity prices got hurt this week as those prices sank: Russia (TRF -3.11%), Brazil (EWZ -0.88%) and Canada (EWC -0.78%). But all the rest were up.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA (+3.57%), the S&P 500 (+1.71%), and the NASDAQ Composite (+1.95%) all had good weeks if you are a Bull. Why the Dow 30 gained as much as it did relative to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ is that the DJIA is bank-heavy and those prices rocked this week: GM (financial component) +32.9%, BAC +26.9%, JPM +20.7%, C +19.5%, and AIG +8.6% were like race horses (that ought to be put out to pasture).

But the Russell 2000 Small Cap index, which had been up +1.38% a week ago, gained +2.69%, so traders were caught up with the rally in the Financials.

A week ago I wrote here, “Except for Friday’s very negative session, the rest of the week wasn’t all that bad. The RSI and Stochastics are quite over-sold. There could be a turn here, but for how long and to what extent I would have to ask Bernanke and Paulson. :-)”

That sums it up in a nutshell: (i) short-covering rally, and (ii) ask Bernanke/Paulson how long they thing their Interventionist tactics will work.

This seems to me like that TV commercial that refers to lottery tickets as not being a very good pension plan. I have no idea of the strategy these authorities have in place to give lasting confidence to the marketplace. They probably are not thinking long-term anyway. You have to know Paulson is gone in six months, and Bernanke may follow him out the door.

On another matter, it seems that “Steve” (hdscooter) is really upset that I made a comment about the Big Three of Detroit, referring to the Japanese as better managers. He wrote: “What a stupid article "Where are Toyota (TM), Honda (HMC) and Nissan (NSANY) when America needs them to take over" How much does
Toyota, Honda Nissan spend on the American retirees? What a stupid ass you are.”

I wrote back, “Admittedly it wasn't my brightest statement; however, I don't hear elderly Japanese auto workers complaining of abusive treatment from their workers, which I suppose was the point I was expressing. Sorry to disappoint.” That seemed to piss him even more. “You did't answer my question!

How much does Toyota, Honda Nissan spend on the American retirees?” he wrote.

I responded, “I get up to 600 letters a day. Yours is by far the least tolerant of any I have received for weeks. So, why should I even bother with the likes of you?” He didn’t get the message, so he replied, “Just answer my question! How much does Toyota, Honda Nissan spend on the American retirees?”

How many of you would give “Steve” one minute of your time? You know, if a person is respectful, I will spend a lot more valuable time than I ought to answering letters – even if I get 1 in 10,000 like this one. But I just want to show you the crap I occasionally put up with—not that I give most of it a second thought.

As I see it, you will get 1000 times further in life if you show people a measure of respect. As soon as it stops, you stop. Life has got to be a challenge to people who have a bad attitude.

Not to worry; 99.99% of you have nothing to worry about on that score. It must be close to a year since I had anybody like “Steve” contact me.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GM	13.18	0.33	2.57%	32.86%	30.24%	-10.89%	-46.01%	-34.53%	-43.96%	-63.39%
BAC	27.49	0.99	3.74%	26.86%	22.72%	-2.31%	-32.22%	-28.71%	-23.58%	-44.31%
JPM	40.02	-0.78	-1.91%	20.69%	13.34%	3.54%	-5.10%	-12.54%	1.57%	-17.89%
C	19.35	1.38	7.68%	19.52%	15.04%	-4.07%	-33.09%	-22.94%	-20.86%	-62.50%
AIG	25.07	0.15	0.60%	8.62%	-4.46%	-24.19%	-55.47%	-48.02%	-51.83%	-63.93%
HD	23.44	0.06	0.26%	8.62%	3.99%	-13.76%	-10.23%	-18.27%	-10.81%	-41.46%
BA	68.14	1.22	1.82%	7.68%	5.69%	-11.45%	-21.33%	-13.37%	-13.09%	-33.08%
AXP	42.19	0.40	0.96%	7.60%	4.85%	-1.03%	-17.34%	-7.34%	-3.26%	-35.14%
INTC	22.09	0.10	0.45%	7.03%	6.92%	-3.33%	-12.86%	-2.04%	16.26%	-11.85%
DD	44.20	0.27	0.61%	6.58%	5.74%	-6.75%	1.05%	-15.03%	3.51%	-17.15%
IBM	129.89	3.37	2.66%	6.36%	8.66%	3.90%	24.07%	4.41%	25.62%	16.93%
DIS	30.90	-0.30	-0.96%	5.82%	0.00%	-6.05%	-2.95%	-1.37%	8.38%	-10.69%
UTX	64.09	-0.61	-0.94%	5.60%	4.98%	-6.87%	-14.79%	-11.61%	-5.82%	-15.18%
MCD	60.44	0.07	0.12%	5.44%	5.68%	3.16%	4.03%	3.67%	15.34%	15.79%
HPQ	43.42	0.19	0.44%	4.40%	-0.05%	-6.80%	-12.83%	-9.88%	-0.75%	-7.89%
PFE	18.32	-0.07	-0.38%	2.86%	3.21%	3.10%	-20.03%	-10.50%	-18.61%	-27.10%
MRK	37.68	0.72	1.95%	2.53%	-2.00%	5.84%	-34.32%	-5.23%	-29.33%	-24.55%
MSFT	25.86	-1.66	-6.03%	2.42%	-0.46%	-10.61%	-26.58%	-13.80%	-21.66%	-16.36%
JNJ	67.82	-0.01	-0.01%	2.35%	4.15%	4.95%	2.90%	1.97%	2.31%	9.04%
VZ	35.45	0.02	0.06%	1.58%	-0.51%	-1.47%	-17.96%	-1.61%	-9.31%	-15.53%
CAT	70.89	-0.94	-1.31%	1.55%	0.82%	-10.81%	0.37%	-16.87%	12.86%	-17.79%
WMT	57.92	0.24	0.42%	1.24%	2.51%	0.43%	23.50%	2.86%	21.73%	20.57%
GE	28.00	0.00	0.00%	1.23%	4.05%	0.32%	-23.83%	-14.35%	-18.39%	-30.78%
PG	63.67	-0.22	-0.34%	0.35%	0.00%	-1.90%	-11.95%	-5.21%	-5.18%	1.73%
MMM	68.94	-0.51	-0.73%	0.32%	-0.75%	-6.99%	-16.65%	-16.84%	-7.97%	-24.64%
KO	50.03	-0.31	-0.62%	-0.48%	-2.82%	-6.24%	-18.10%	-16.77%	-17.63%	-6.36%
T	32.12	0.37	1.17%	-1.41%	-1.41%	-8.62%	-21.66%	-14.37%	-11.05%	-18.95%
AA	33.81	0.07	0.21%	-2.40%	3.14%	-13.57%	-6.42%	-6.76%	16.19%	-27.21%
XOM	81.54	1.21	1.51%	-4.61%	-7.62%	-4.95%	-12.80%	-13.26%	-4.16%	-10.54%
CVX	86.05	0.38	0.44%	-6.72%	-12.75%	-11.16%	-7.93%	-7.65%	3.10%	-7.55%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT CHV DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on four companies, Alcoa (AA), Dupont (DD), Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE). None of these are Cara 100 companies, although a couple years ago Pfizer was and in the early 1980’s Merck was in my top 10.

Things change. This is no longer your Dad & Mom’s market. Management and boards of directors get greedy; shareholders get unruly; analysts and media dig deeper; financing gets more complex; global demand shifts; strategic planners shorten their time horizon from 20-40 years to between 5 and 10 years; and a whole other range of issues surface.

We can say that the principles of trading don’t change, but the companies underlying the prices we trade surely do.

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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The Value Line analysts seem awfully “Neutral” on all four of these companies, and I agree there is not much here to spend time examining. It’s unusual that I don’t have anything to say about any of four Dow 30 components that VL has evaluated. But that’s the way it is.

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports. I added the Google Finance links, which are superb.

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Google Finance file)
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Google Finance file)
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Google Finance file)
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May 2: next one is due Aug. 1)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Google Finance file)
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 9: next one is due Aug. 8)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Google Finance file)
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Google Finance file)
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Google Finance file)
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Google Finance file)
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Google Finance file)
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Google Finance file)
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Google Finance file)
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Google Finance file)
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Google Finance file)
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report May 30: next one is due Aug. 29)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Google Finance file)
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance fle)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report May 30: next one is due Aug. 29)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Google Finance file)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 6: next one is due Sept. 5)

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Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Google Finance file)
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Google Finance file)
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 20: next one is due Sep. 19)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Google Finance file)
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 27: next one is due Sep. 26)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Google Finance file)
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 27: next one is due Sep. 26)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Google Finance file)
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 4: next one is due Oct. 3)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Google Finance file)
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 4: next one is due Oct. 3)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 11: next one is due Oct. 10)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Google Finance file)
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Google Finance file)
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Google Finance file)
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Google Finance file)
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 18: next one is due Oct. 17)

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Wrap up:

This coming week may not be as good as the last one, I believe. My concern is that, unless oil prices continue to fall and the $USD keeps rising, which takes pressure off the Fed, so that they can raise rates a bit and keep the pressure on the extreme speculator, inflation will stay forefront in the news, leading to more hedging (and lower stock prices but modestly higher oil/gold prices).

Stock prices move on earnings and I think that the hype and pumping up losers like Citi and JP Morgan can only carry on so far. Google and many others that have disappointed have been crunched. Of course, these non-financial companies do not control the media as much as Humungous Bank & Broker.

By ‘control’ I mean affecting the media’s output because the spin doctors are the ones who write the scripts and send out the media kits, which the over-worked but overly lax media tends to regurgitate. I’m not referring to conspiracy or whatever, just lobbyists doing their job to organize thinking and the average person, including columnists, not doing enough independent thinking.

Why does the latter result happen to presumably professional media people? I think that some are lazy, some cater to the entertainment value that extreme copy enables, some are bought-and-paid-for, etc, but mostly it’s a case of not wanting to be wrong, so they think it’s best to go with the crowd.

I don’t think that particular situation will continue as is, however. Mainstream media is already doing a more effective job of promoting blogs, including from some of their own best people. Some blogs like Seeking Alpha have morphed into mainstream media. At the end of the day, all media, including bloggers, tends to reflect the mental state of the public, which is why at the bottoms of Bear markets the major magazines and newspapers run headlines that are proven in time 180 degrees from accurate. Bloggers will do the same; mark my words. As I say, that’s not the media at fault as much as it’s the media’s perception of the public mindset and their reporting on it.

I am wrapping up today this way because I strongly urge you to monitor and analyze the price series data. At potential market reversals, spend much less time listening to stories and opinions of others, recognizing as I say that the answer is in the price data.

Btw, I am spending more time on getting the business of Cara Trading Advisors Bahamas Ltd going. That is limiting my time for the blog and for trying to answer mail. After CTAB and BillCara.com get rolling, each under sound management, I will revert to writing in more detail, the way I did a couple years ago.

I am always open to business, however. This week I joined a selling syndicate for a couple exploration plays in the McFaulds Lake “Ring Of Fire” area. One is an IPO registered in Canada, and Europe (but only to select accredited US Reg D investors). If you have any interest (retail investors included), write me confidentially and I’ll direct you to the people who can handle the trades.

I believe the McFaulds Lake camp has been knocked down too much because of the overall market for juniors, based largely on banking, credit and regulatory issues that I have addressed in the WIR today. The Noront (TSX.V: NOT) is a good example: selling drove the price below $3 for a day or so; however, the person I think who is probably the best trader of precious metals (not Rob McEwen, although he’s good as well), invested $10 million at an average price of $4.50 in NOT and believes that drilling, where the success rate is 50%, will prove out a $30+ stock.

One of the securities offerings that will be available this week or next is immediately adjacent to the best Noront drill hole to date, and the other company is an IPO with what the principal financier of Ring Of Fire properties ($110 million in the past nine months) told me has probably the best target of any company he has seen so far. These opportunities are for speculators, recognizing there is a difference between speculating on companies that are drilling (which is what interests me in the Ring Of Fire) and stock prices generally, which is a different matter.

So, contact me if you have any interest. Also, as soon as I am able, I intend to offer a Ring Of Fire fund (something like Sheldon Inwentash’s Pinetree) because I think that over the next couple years there will be well over $300 million more invested in the McFauld’s Lake area and there will be some spectacular drill results, and likely a couple mines that rival Sudbury. The problem is in not knowing which company or companies will be successful. So, a Fund makes sense.

Another Fund I will likely start will be on North American Oil & Gas because I believe the future of the US and Canadian economy is going to be greatly affected by increasing ‘friendly’ energy reserves and production.

Also, the CTAB team members (over 20 specialists I have selected from around the world—Australia, Philippines, Hong Kong, Greece, Portugal, Switzerland, Belgium, Canada, US and Brazil—are excellent and, as a team, capable of providing a quality of service and performance that I expect to be at the highest level. Our primary focus is on trading the Cara 100 and also income securities. That’s what most people want. The blog will link to our performance and some of my writing will involve detailed reviews of some of the securities we are trading. In addition, changes are being made this week to how we approach the forex market.

Now I can close off. Have a good day.

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