Over 52 weeks, the loss is -45.83%, which means that to make back this capital loss requires a gain of +185%. That’s going to take some time, which is the principle behind why I was predominantly negative in this blog for the past couple years except for a few times where I saw extreme buying opportunities in selective groups.

You see, I know from experience in money management what it means to run numbers like losing -46% in blue-chip stocks and the impact it has on the individual or family owner of the capital.

So, it comes as somewhat amusing to me that shortly before the broad market cycle top there was a comment on a major financial newspaper website that uttered “the Bill Cara blog is the joke of the blogging world.” Some joke; some people never grow up! They even choose to hide behind nicknames.

Given the lag time (anticipated by me btw) from when I first put you on alert that market conditions were rapidly deteriorating to the time many of you made decisions to go to cash, I am confident I did the right thing in the past two years. If I didn’t think I was helping many people, I would admit it.

For those of you who in the past year needed to diversify portfolios by investing in Financial Services, you could still have beaten the sector standard (XLF) just by avoiding a few of the worst cases. For instance, XLF is down -29.69% YTD, but LEH, UBS, C and MER dropped -63.26%, -55.62%, -41.84% and -41.02% respectively. Of course that takes judgment and good timing. In my case, two of these four were in the Cara 100, but I recognized the issues fairly early on when the price changes told me these companies were broken and I dumped them, knowing the largest percentage losses invariably come late in the Bear phase.

Why I stuck it out with UBS (in the Cara 100) is something I have grappled with, and come up short of a good answer. I suppose it’s a measure of the respect I once had for that company. Today, that bank needs to seriously re-evaluate their model, and make changes in senior management, probably disgorging some of the divisions that have created the biggest conflicts from their primary and best known services.

But that’s trading. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Because we don’t know the future, to a large degree anyway, we make decisions and try to keep the bad ones to a minimum, knowing we are going to make many. It is the net result that counts.

Today’s cover of Barron’s is headlined, “The Bear’s Back” – something you have known for a while, and protected yourself.

Now traders have to be conscious that the broad market indexes in the US and elsewhere, for the most part, are over-sold. They may rebound in a summer rally—with the operative word being ‘may’.

I hope you take the time to review the charts below. You will discover that whether it’s the daily, weekly or monthly data, the RSI/Stochastic momentum indicators are low. For instance, the (i) DJIA, (ii) S&P 500, (iii) NASDAQ Composite and (iv) Russell 2000 are (for D-W-M ): (i) 22.3-25.1-26.3; (ii) 20.6-27.5-29.4; (iii) 22.2-30.2-36.6; and (iv) 17.5-27.9-32.0.

For the six most important sector studies: (i) XLE (ii) XLB (iii) XLI (iv) XLY (v) XLF, and (vi) XLK, the D-W-M RSI-7 are: (i) 37.2-54.3-65.3; (ii) 20.1-30.8-43.6; (iii) 25.7-25.3-28.1; (iv) 25.6-27.7-19.7; (v) 18.6-19.2-15.7; and (vi) 13.7-31.1-38.8. Obviously, you have to examine the charts to see if the RSI-7 is increasing or decreasing.

As most of you know, my simple RSI system shows Accumulation and Distribution Zones when the RSI-7 is below the 30 line for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily data series and above 70 for the same. But a Buy Alert for a short-term oriented trader is when the Daily RSI-7 pops back up over 30, if confirmed by similar RSI turnabouts in similar stocks. For an intermediate-term oriented trader, there should be a crossing of the 30 line in both Daily and Weekly RSI-7 data, and for a long-term oriented trader, the crossing of the 30 line should happen in the Daily, Weekly and Monthly.

This not a perfect system. It does, however, map the market in a simple way for traders to more easily see the pitfalls of trading blind. Over the years, this system will lead you to buy lower and sell higher than you might otherwise do. As you learn it and apply it, you will discover nuances that are also helpful to you.

Trading is not simple, which is why there is no perfect system. For most of us when asked the question, “How’s it going?” there ought to be a smile and a reply, “Oh, just gettin’ by.” Same thing for life in general.

You see, most people make their lives and their portfolio strategies and tactics too complex. As for me, if you can eliminate the conflicts of interest and the random noise, you’ll see that “getting’ by” has become a whole lot easier and more financially productive.

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Global Economics Review

The macro-economic data continues to worsen, both in America and abroad.

Weekly International Economic Report . Note that this report was taken with closing data for July 3, but global markets ex-USA were open Friday July 4.

The Econoday conclusion to this week’s report is as follows:

Last week’s economic data illustrated rather graphically how weak output is becoming in the U.S. and Europe. And while the Japanese Tankan showed vulnerability, it was not as weak as some analysts had expected. Equities sank while the U.S. dollar managed to rise in the U.S. holiday shortened week. While the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key interest rate at 7.25 percent, the European Central Bank increased its key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent.

This week, the Bank of England holds its monthly two day meeting. The Bank is caught between rapidly softening growth and high inflation. Like the ECB, its latest inflation reading is far above its 2 percent inflation target at 3.3 percent.

The leaders of the Group of Eight countries will hold their annual meeting July 7 through July 9 in Hokkaido, Japan. Among the items under discussion is expected to be the fallout from last summer's global credit market meltdown. The subprime mortgage issues in the U.S. are largely under control, but financial market turbulence continues to be a concern, officials said. Leaders are also expected to concentrate on the economic problems brought on by soaring prices for oil and basic food products.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Economic Calendar. In addition to the US Consumer Confidence index and the Fed monetary policy decision being reported on Wednesday, there were a few other important reports.

US Manufacturing data for June. Conditions had stabilized in May, but employment levels were down and prices paid for materials had soared. For June, Econoday reported: “Raw material costs are soaring in the U.S. manufacturing sector reflected in a rare 91.5 reading in the ISM's prices paid index for June, not a record but surpassed in 60 years of data only during the oil embargo of the mid-70s. Employment is the other major negative in the report, falling nearly 2 points to 43.7 to signal yet another contraction for factory jobs in Thursday's monthly jobs report.”

US Factory Orders for May. The question is how bad was it for vehicles and construction machinery. The auto manufacturers reported that sales hit the wall to begin June, but I think the seriousness of the latest pullback was felt in May. I only look at Brunswick Corp to see the layoffs and plant closings in this segment. For May, Econoday reported: “Indications confirm that the manufacturing sector is steady and is not dipping into recession. Factory orders for May rose 0.6 percent with durable goods orders, data released in the advance durable goods report last week, unrevised at no change in the month. The no change reading is an improvement from declines in the previous two months and in three of the prior four months.”

On Thursday morning ET, the European Central Bank released its decision on monetary policy. Econoday reported: “As expected by virtually all analysts, the European Central Bank increased its key policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent. The spread between U.S. and EMU interest rates is now 2.25 percent. The latest flash reading for the harmonized index of consumer prices showed that inflation soared by 4 percent in June, the highest rate since statistics began in 1997. That means that inflation is about double the ECB's inflation target of below but close to 2 percent. And producer prices soared by 7.1 percent on the year in May. In an interview recently, ECB president Jean Claude Trichet said that there is a risk of inflation exploding if central banks did not act decisively.”

US employment report for June. Econoday reported: “The June jobs report showed further contraction in employment but the declines remain mild. Thus far, job losses are still at a rate soft enough to not pull the overall economy into recession. Nonfarm payroll employment in June fell 62,000, following a decline of also 62,000 in May and a decrease of 67,000 in March.” I think this report by Econoday is too much spin for vested interests, and does not adequately reflect the reality that the economy is receding. A healthy economy in the US needs net 180,000 job growth each month.

US Non-Manufacturing Business index for June. Econoday reported: “Prices soared on the manufacturing side and are soaring as well on the non-manufacturing side as the Institute For Supply Management's prices paid index hit a record high 84.5 in June, up 7.5 points from May. There are now indications that these pressures are slowing growth, reflected in a sub-50 reading for the non-manufacturing composite headline index which fell to 48.2 vs. May's much better reading of 51.7. The business activity index, the report's former headline index that is the sum to a single question, also dipped below 50 to 49.9, down nearly 4 points to confirm the trouble.”

How is next week’s calendar looking?

US Economic Calendar.

US Consumer Credit report for May. People are being squeezed, as this report is likely to show.

On Thursday morning at 7:00am ET, the Bank of England will release their monetary policy decision. Like Europe where the ECB raised rates last week, inflation in the UK is a definite threat, so a rate increase may happen.

Then at 10:00am ET, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson will testify to the House Financial Service Committee on financial market regulatory restructuring. I eagerly await Rep. Dr. Ron Paul’s questioning.

US Import and Export Prices for June. Econoday notes, “Import prices are experiencing extreme pressure from a surge in oil prices and other commodities. May's 2.3 percent spike in import prices put the year-on-year pace at a sharp 17.8 percent. Petroleum import prices jumped 7.8 percent in the month for a year-on-year rate of 68.8 percent.”

US international trade report for May. Econoday notes: “The U.S. international trade gap widened sharply in April - primarily due to a run up in oil prices. The overall U.S. trade gap widened to $60.9 billion from a $56.5 billion deficit in March. Exports rebounded a healthy 3.3 percent but imports surged 4.5 percent. While the oil gap jumped, the nonoil gap was little changed. The oil trade gap grew to $34.5 billion from $30.2 billion in March while the nonoil deficit was unchanged at $36.1 billion in April. The jump in the oil gap was due to a spike in oil prices to $96.81 per barrel from $89.85 in March. With the continuing increases in oil prices, we are likely to see a further boost in the trade gap in May.”

U Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for July. Econoday notes: “(The) index has been near record lows as consumers have been hard squeezed by record gasoline prices, rising food price inflation, and fears of job losses. The consumer sentiment index dropped 3.4 points in June to a 56.4 reading. This is the third lowest reading for the series which goes all the way back to 1952 (lowest readings are 52.7 April 1980 and 51.7 May 1980). The expectations component was also quite weak, coming in at 49.2, down nearly 2 points from May. What should be of concern for the Fed are the recently elevated numbers for inflation expectations with the latest one year out number at 3.4 percent and five year inflation expectations at 5.1 percent.”

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

This week was yet another bad one for the Bulls.

There were 8 of 10 sectors that dropped in price. There were 20 of 30 Dow components that were down. Both were slight improvements over the previous week.

The DJIA index was actually down less this week, losing 0.51% to 11289. The S&P 500 lost -1.21% to 1262.90 and the Russell Small Cap index plunged -4.64% to 665.78.

Only Health (IYH +1.58%) and Utilities (XLU +0.77%) managed gains over the four-day week.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The NASDAQ Composite dropped -3.03% W/W vs -3.76% the prior week and -2.0% the week before that. Part of the problem for the NASDAQ this week was Microsoft (MSFT), which lost -6.38%. Bill Gates officially stepped down as Executive Chairman.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week, there were 2 sectors up and 8 down, which was 1 better than a week earlier. On the shortened pre-holiday Thursday session, the scoreboard read 6 up and 4 down.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IYH	61.80	0.02	0.03%	1.58%	-0.80%	-5.00%	-11.84%	-2.91%	-12.34%	-12.17%
XLU	40.38	-0.42	-1.03%	0.77%	-3.00%	-3.14%	-4.06%	2.98%	-3.93%	0.57%
XLP	26.67	0.01	0.04%	-0.30%	-3.02%	-6.91%	-6.06%	-5.19%	-5.56%	-2.16%
SPY	126.31	0.13	0.10%	-1.50%	-6.04%	-10.28%	-12.85%	-7.83%	-12.81%	-17.09%
XLI	33.41	0.45	1.37%	-1.50%	-8.91%	-13.24%	-13.24%	-12.65%	-13.31%	-15.63%
XLE	84.90	-1.32	-1.53%	-1.84%	-2.00%	-2.99%	6.79%	10.72%	5.54%	20.00%
XLY	28.05	0.24	0.86%	-2.30%	-9.52%	-13.80%	-12.89%	-12.89%	-11.90%	-29.17%
XLK	22.35	-0.05	-0.22%	-3.16%	-7.84%	-12.04%	-14.43%	-4.16%	-14.56%	-14.04%
IYZ	23.05	-0.26	-1.12%	-3.60%	-8.53%	-15.94%	-20.98%	-5.26%	-20.52%	-33.32%
XLF	19.94	-0.09	-0.45%	-4.32%	-12.31%	-19.07%	-29.69%	-25.49%	-29.24%	-45.83%
SMH	28.70	-0.18	-0.62%	-4.33%	-9.41%	-12.77%	-8.48%	-5.96%	-6.85%	-25.95%
XLB	39.45	0.23	0.59%	-5.10%	-11.25%	-13.26%	-4.48%	-7.15%	-6.18%	-4.15%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XOM	88.27	0.86	0.98%	2.15%	2.89%	-1.16%	-5.60%	0.05%	-5.93%	3.41%
CEO	170.99	-3.92	-2.24%	1.97%	4.77%	-1.79%	2.13%	8.54%	0.68%	43.11%
CVX	98.63	1.21	1.24%	1.25%	1.83%	-1.36%	5.53%	12.44%	4.25%	14.25%
STO	35.95	-0.17	-0.47%	0.28%	-4.31%	-3.93%	15.08%	17.37%	13.19%	15.45%
ECA	88.91	-1.22	-1.35%	-0.01%	-1.97%	-1.96%	27.73%	16.09%	24.82%	41.26%
TOT	80.67	-0.26	-0.32%	-1.19%	1.06%	-5.98%	-3.13%	5.27%	-5.21%	-2.05%
IMO	52.93	-1.47	-2.70%	-2.58%	-4.66%	-9.72%	-3.62%	0.63%	-3.66%	12.93%
SLB	101.88	-1.48	-1.43%	-2.98%	-2.81%	-2.96%	1.29%	11.59%	-0.42%	15.92%
PBR	65.72	-1.38	-2.06%	-3.81%	-1.40%	-4.10%	-44.68%	-40.23%	-43.71%	2.10%
SU	57.38	1.95	3.52%	-3.89%	-6.82%	-14.52%	4.08%	15.13%	1.61%	25.64%
PTR	123.89	1.40	1.14%	-3.93%	-11.82%	-12.93%	-28.66%	-8.54%	-27.40%	-19.81%
RIG	142.91	-3.14	-2.15%	-5.53%	-3.50%	-3.09%	-2.08%	1.80%	-2.08%	31.92%

Crude Oil ($WTIC +5.08/bbl to 145.29, which followed the previous week’s gain of + 4.85/bbl) set another new all-time record weekly close.

But traders are now thinking these gains to top-line prices are unsustainable. XLE lost -1.84% to close at 84.90. Thursday’s loss was -1.53%.

Margin requirements for many of the NYMEX energy contracts were raised this week.

The stock winners this week were XOM (+2.2%), CEO (+2.0%) and CVX (+1.3%). RIG (-5.5%), PTR (-3.9%), SU (-3.9%), and PBR (-3.8%) were losers.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
VCP	26.05	0.00	0.00%	-2.36%	-11.12%	-25.42%	-12.29%	-15.94%	-14.42%	13.31%
TS	67.09	-1.83	-2.66%	-2.81%	-1.89%	3.39%	51.14%	30.81%	49.59%	35.45%
DOW	34.10	0.18	0.53%	-2.85%	-10.94%	-14.64%	-12.00%	-11.27%	-11.50%	-24.66%
RTP	433.29	3.29	0.77%	-4.49%	-9.64%	-8.81%	3.24%	-0.78%	1.17%	35.26%
BHP	77.29	-0.46	-0.59%	-4.71%	-10.93%	-8.21%	9.77%	9.55%	6.98%	24.40%
TCK	44.43	0.05	0.11%	-6.07%	-8.47%	-9.35%	22.60%	2.00%	22.06%	3.18%
PKX	116.23	-1.37	-1.16%	-6.93%	-14.41%	-20.96%	-20.64%	-9.93%	-21.33%	-7.75%
AA	32.78	0.67	2.09%	-7.14%	-16.21%	-18.21%	-9.27%	-14.95%	-9.42%	-21.01%
GGB	21.41	-1.15	-5.10%	-7.48%	-58.46%	-58.41%	-25.40%	-38.01%	-26.90%	-19.09%
RIO	32.08	-0.25	-0.77%	-9.71%	-11.09%	-17.13%	-1.93%	-10.89%	-3.05%	-30.86%
MT	83.80	0.40	0.48%	-14.84%	-17.59%	-19.62%	9.69%	1.60%	10.47%	30.65%
NUE	62.54	0.60	0.97%	-15.34%	-19.10%	-22.35%	7.88%	-10.14%	10.01%	5.62%

Basic Materials (XLB -5.10% to 39.45, following prior weeks’ losses of -3.31% and -2.90%) were hammered again.

The economy is a great leveler. For the past couple weeks, the Papers and Chemicals have fared badly. This week, the Steels and Base Metal Miners were added to the scrap pile.

In this sector, there were few winners, and some huge losers. For instance, NUE (-15.3%), MT (-14.8%), RIO (-9.7%), GGB (-7.5%), AA (-7.1%) and TCK (-6.1%) were big losers. The table source data for GGB does not recognize the share split.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HON	50.31	0.69	1.39%	2.38%	-9.11%	-11.27%	-16.01%	-12.72%	-16.43%	-12.05%
GE	26.91	0.40	1.51%	1.43%	-3.58%	-13.36%	-26.80%	-28.88%	-26.88%	-30.47%
TXT	47.84	0.89	1.90%	0.23%	-9.29%	-21.74%	-28.39%	-17.49%	-29.45%	-16.01%
UPS	59.47	0.93	1.59%	-0.68%	-11.03%	-16.30%	-14.01%	-20.26%	-14.10%	-18.76%
MMM	69.46	0.98	1.43%	-1.14%	-6.29%	-10.37%	-16.02%	-13.36%	-16.01%	-21.01%
FLR	179.92	-0.04	-0.02%	-1.93%	-5.24%	-4.81%	24.60%	17.86%	18.72%	57.55%
UTX	61.05	1.35	2.26%	-2.77%	-11.29%	-12.75%	-18.83%	-13.72%	-19.97%	-15.76%
ABB	27.37	0.45	1.67%	-2.98%	-11.88%	-16.27%	-4.43%	0.77%	-2.53%	15.73%
FDX	74.97	0.27	0.36%	-4.00%	-8.27%	-19.98%	-12.99%	-23.24%	-14.13%	-32.46%
CAT	70.31	-0.11	-0.16%	-5.34%	-11.54%	-15.01%	-0.45%	-8.77%	-0.10%	-9.85%
BA	64.47	0.57	0.89%	-5.48%	-16.22%	-16.61%	-25.57%	-15.33%	-25.88%	-33.98%
ERJ	24.42	-0.49	-1.97%	-12.50%	-18.19%	-29.65%	-45.89%	-39.63%	-47.66%	-49.87%

The Industrials (XLI -1.50% W/W) had a losing week, closing at 33.41. The prior weeks’ losses were -3.31% and -2.97%.

HON (+2.4%) and GE (+1.4%) were winners.

The biggest losers a week ago [ERJ (-12%) and BA (-11.8%)] were down -12.5% and -5.5% respectively this week. FDX dropped -4.0%.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JCP	36.69	0.71	1.97%	1.97%	-1.50%	-9.54%	-11.91%	-8.96%	-7.91%	-48.71%
TGT	46.90	0.21	0.45%	-1.55%	-9.46%	-14.15%	-5.27%	-11.92%	-5.39%	-25.86%
NKE	58.52	0.43	0.74%	-1.65%	-13.74%	-16.48%	-7.52%	-15.07%	-6.68%	-0.78%
DIS	30.90	0.19	0.62%	-2.00%	-6.05%	-10.41%	-2.95%	-2.00%	-2.74%	-10.54%
TM	92.00	0.60	0.66%	-2.65%	-9.94%	-13.81%	-13.58%	-8.04%	-13.94%	-28.11%
EBAY	26.80	-0.31	-1.14%	-2.86%	-8.12%	-10.84%	-17.51%	-15.51%	-18.39%	-16.64%
BDK	56.53	0.87	1.56%	-3.76%	-5.25%	-11.48%	-19.16%	-19.23%	-18.30%	-36.37%
BBBY	28.42	0.41	1.46%	-4.60%	-4.25%	-10.66%	0.21%	-9.86%	3.72%	-21.17%
CCL	31.89	-0.34	-1.05%	-4.72%	-13.44%	-18.96%	-26.96%	-24.25%	-25.75%	-33.10%
WHR	62.69	1.83	3.01%	-5.37%	-6.29%	-11.72%	-21.52%	-31.53%	-20.77%	-44.21%
BC	10.15	0.05	0.50%	-12.20%	-18.47%	-28.52%	-40.01%	-40.40%	-38.30%	-69.21%
GOL	9.300	-0.770	-7.65%	-17.77%	-31.16%	-36.30%	-61.23%	-41.58%	-60.22%	-71.78%

Consumer Cyclicals (XLY -2.30% closing at 28.05) was another loser. Even with the rebates, the US consumer is not putting more cash in the register than the cost of goods sold is being impacted by material and delivery costs.

The big Cara 100 losers here were GOL (-17.8% after losing -12.0% the previous week), BC (-12.2% to $10.15), WHR -5.4% and CCL (-4.7% after losing -7.2% the previous week).

High fuel costs are killing many of these stocks. Some of them, including Cara 100’s ought to be reviewed in the light of potential business failure.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PEP	66.77	1.01	1.54%	3.09%	1.34%	-0.77%	-11.32%	-6.48%	-11.89%	1.80%
KR	29.45	0.45	1.55%	2.94%	11.17%	3.70%	14.73%	16.04%	14.01%	3.26%
PG	63.67	0.98	1.56%	2.28%	-1.90%	-4.50%	-11.95%	-9.65%	-11.95%	3.04%
BUD	61.67	-0.01	-0.02%	0.52%	1.02%	6.79%	19.45%	27.36%	17.22%	19.91%
WMT	56.60	0.10	0.18%	-0.40%	-1.89%	-5.35%	20.68%	3.04%	22.04%	16.77%
DEO	71.49	0.93	1.32%	-3.14%	-2.48%	-10.19%	-15.95%	-15.78%	-16.20%	-14.54%
KO	51.48	0.11	0.21%	-3.27%	-3.52%	-9.98%	-15.73%	-14.99%	-16.60%	-2.68%
WAG	31.45	0.06	0.19%	-4.35%	-11.26%	-14.31%	-15.77%	-17.65%	-10.30%	-28.28%
SBUX	15.56	-0.12	-0.77%	-4.42%	-13.51%	-15.98%	-19.42%	-15.16%	-16.79%	-40.97%
ABV	59.78	-0.27	-0.45%	-6.39%	-10.86%	-12.55%	-17.52%	-25.74%	-19.84%	-14.82%
WFMI	22.71	-0.01	-0.04%	-9.52%	-14.53%	-23.61%	-42.88%	-32.55%	-42.51%	-40.57%
PDA	48.36	-1.86	-3.70%	-9.79%	-18.10%	-19.29%	0.48%	-1.95%	-1.43%	21.81%

This week, Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30% W/W) closed at 26.67, although that might possibly be an error since the price was a dime lower a week ago.

PEP (+3.1%) was the Consumer Staples winner on the week. The losers were PDA (-9.8%), WFMI (-9.5% after losing -6.3% a week ago) and ABV (-6.4%).

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AMGN	50.84	2.00	4.10%	9.66%	13.33%	13.15%	9.10%	22.30%	11.27%	-7.88%
DNA	77.94	-0.20	-0.26%	7.59%	3.84%	6.61%	15.64%	-1.86%	16.14%	1.50%
BMY	20.78	0.19	0.92%	5.64%	4.32%	-4.11%	-20.47%	-5.07%	-20.41%	-34.59%
GSK	46.77	1.59	3.52%	5.58%	7.17%	8.21%	-6.78%	4.58%	-7.88%	-11.02%
NVS	56.51	-0.02	-0.04%	5.53%	11.35%	6.60%	3.56%	9.77%	2.78%	0.86%
PFE	17.75	0.13	0.74%	3.38%	-0.11%	-4.93%	-22.52%	-16.82%	-23.43%	-31.23%
JNJ	65.12	0.48	0.74%	1.34%	0.77%	-2.75%	-1.20%	-0.23%	-1.23%	5.12%
MDT	51.06	0.12	0.24%	-0.04%	-0.64%	-1.10%	3.15%	4.16%	2.63%	-3.35%
WLP	44.98	-2.17	-4.60%	-5.86%	-8.73%	-20.36%	-48.30%	-2.70%	-48.89%	-44.50%
AET	37.14	-2.65	-6.66%	-6.19%	-11.25%	-21.79%	-34.43%	-12.16%	-35.08%	-25.75%
NVO	63.50	-2.52	-3.82%	-6.41%	-1.04%	-3.79%	-0.47%	-7.54%	1.05%	-43.79%
UNH	22.96	-2.16	-8.60%	-11.59%	-17.68%	-32.35%	-59.48%	-36.49%	-59.67%	-55.96%

In keeping with the safe-haven move into Consumer Staples and Healthcare sectors, the (IYH) gained +1.58% W/W to close at 61.80, making it the #1 performing sector.

Once again, the losers were insurance-related stocks like UNH (-11.6%). Note that for the previous two weeks, UNH lost -4.1% and -11.8%. When the Financials turn around or recover a bit, you should anticipate similar moves in stocks like UNH, WPT, and AET.

The leaders on my list were bio-pharmas AMGN (+9.7%) and DNA (+7.6%).

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GS	178.89	0.10	0.06%	1.49%	-4.30%	1.30%	-13.83%	1.34%	-12.67%	-20.33%
LEH	22.85	0.49	2.19%	1.06%	-6.58%	-32.50%	-63.26%	-47.25%	-62.54%	-69.37%
DB	87.12	1.48	1.73%	-1.80%	-8.26%	-15.81%	-32.50%	-26.55%	-32.41%	-41.12%
CS	44.12	0.75	1.73%	-2.50%	-6.13%	-12.77%	-26.07%	-21.31%	-26.17%	-39.38%
MS	35.91	0.04	0.11%	-2.50%	-10.65%	-19.47%	-29.52%	-26.53%	-29.51%	-50.96%
HBC	75.96	0.88	1.17%	-2.54%	-5.17%	-10.12%	-7.86%	-11.04%	-7.84%	-17.85%
JPM	35.31	0.71	2.05%	-2.78%	-8.64%	-16.13%	-16.27%	-23.70%	-15.69%	-28.44%
BBD	20.16	0.25	1.26%	-2.80%	-8.41%	-14.07%	-33.75%	-31.96%	-32.35%	-18.38%
C	16.82	-0.02	-0.12%	-4.81%	-16.61%	-20.74%	-41.84%	-30.95%	-41.86%	-67.57%
MER	31.12	-0.03	-0.10%	-5.84%	-17.43%	-24.02%	-41.02%	-32.19%	-40.14%	-63.31%
UBS	20.32	0.49	2.47%	-7.85%	-11.92%	-20.00%	-55.62%	-37.46%	-55.42%	-66.67%
IBN	27.13	-0.24	-0.88%	-12.46%	-23.73%	-26.58%	-56.35%	-31.14%	-56.59%	-46.17%

You recall a couple weeks ago that Morgan Stanley reported the worst was over for the Financial sector. I replied, “Maybe, but the source is far too conflicted for me to pay the least bit of attention.”

As I wrote at the top, The Financials (XLF) dropped another -4.32% in this holiday shortened week, which means that in the nine weeks since May 3, the average weekly loss in XLF is -3.83%. Over 52 weeks, the loss is -45.83%

This week the losers were IBN (-12.5% and a previous two-week loss of over -20%) and UBS (-7.9%).

GS gained +1.5% W/W but the YTD loss is -13.8%. LEH gained +1.1% but the YTD loss there is -63.3%.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AAPL	170.12	1.94	1.15%	1.11%	-5.96%	-10.19%	-12.69%	12.21%	-12.73%	33.77%
INFY	42.60	-1.00	-2.29%	-0.02%	-8.11%	-13.71%	-4.12%	13.87%	-2.94%	-16.67%
QCOM	45.05	0.00	0.00%	-0.13%	-10.54%	-8.79%	17.35%	7.54%	18.87%	2.71%
SAP	52.04	0.64	1.25%	-0.19%	-1.14%	-4.16%	2.58%	0.00%	2.87%	2.08%
ADBE	40.39	0.58	1.46%	-1.08%	-3.83%	-7.97%	-3.16%	9.13%	-3.35%	-0.79%
CTSH	31.80	0.43	1.37%	-2.18%	-13.38%	-13.54%	-1.33%	7.58%	-2.90%	-15.69%
ADSK	33.96	0.31	0.92%	-2.33%	-12.47%	-18.15%	-29.60%	1.40%	-29.01%	-26.33%
CSCO	23.12	0.28	1.23%	-2.94%	-9.40%	-16.05%	-12.89%	-4.58%	-13.57%	-17.72%
ORCL	20.73	-0.09	-0.43%	-3.22%	-8.68%	-10.57%	-7.83%	0.24%	-10.30%	3.29%
INTC	20.66	-0.27	-1.29%	-4.31%	-9.58%	-13.45%	-18.50%	-5.79%	-16.25%	-15.98%
RIMM	115.04	-1.16	-1.00%	-6.82%	-22.03%	-15.16%	1.17%	-6.15%	1.97%	65.98%
SNDK	18.43	-0.29	-1.55%	-7.53%	-21.37%	-35.81%	-44.44%	-30.37%	-42.92%	-61.28%

Tech (XLK -2.30% W/W closing at 22.35) was a weak performer again this week, but there was a Friday gain of +0.86%.

In fact, I recognize that the broad market is over-sold here and due for a rally. Could it be a summer rally?

AAPL gained +1.1%, but RIMM took another large loss (-6.8%).

The Semi-conductors (SMH -4.33% W/W following the prior week’s loss of -3.89%) was a big loser again.

SanDisk (SNDK -7.5% as well as -9.1%, -11.9% and -13.0% the prior three weeks) is now down -44.4% YTD.

If the bottom looks near, and the broad market ready to rally (if!), you could consider some SNDK put writes and call purchases, with offsetting premiums. But, your bias would have to be positive for the upcoming share price.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Telecom (IYZ -3.60% W/W following a -3.31% loss the previous week), closing at 23.05) had another tough week among many bad ones in a row. Verizon (VZ) +4.2% W/W was a big winner, but AT&T (T) -2.7% W/W was down again.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

Utilities (XLU +0.77% W/W), closing at 40.38 had a bit of a turn-around.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	1.77	1.73	1.65	1.76
6 Month	2.01	2.02	2.08	1.92
2 Year	2.52	2.57	2.65	2.40
3 Year	2.44	2.49	2.59	2.37
5 Year	3.27	3.30	3.39	3.18
10 Year	3.98	3.96	4.03	3.89
30 Year	4.53	4.50	4.60	4.62

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.62	2.51	2.69	2.31
2yr AAA	2.50	2.39	2.46	2.29
2yr A	2.73	2.67	2.78	2.67
5yr AAA	3.09	3.02	3.29	2.92
5yr AA	3.26	3.10	3.37	2.94
5yr A	3.19	3.21	3.46	3.21
10yr AAA	3.80	3.82	4.01	3.62
10yr AA	3.75	3.75	3.94	3.62
10yr A	3.77	3.81	3.98	3.73
20yr AAA	4.62	4.70	4.80	4.45
20yr AA	4.63	4.65	4.92	4.37
20yr A	4.69	4.76	4.95	4.49

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.11	4.27	4.22	3.99
2yr A	4.55	4.69	4.70	4.13
5yr AAA	5.15	5.14	5.06	4.37
5yr AA	5.41	5.39	5.32	4.94
5yr A	5.66	5.78	5.70	5.19
10yr AAA	5.78	5.73	5.63	5.49
10yr AA	5.96	6.06	6.48	5.99
10yr A	5.96	5.97	6.12	5.74
20yr AAA	6.39	6.45	6.29	6.21
20yr AA	6.79	6.85	6.26	6.18
20yr A	6.64	6.70	6.54	6.46

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Bond prices were mixed this week.

Yields for the US Treasury 2-year, 5-year ($FVX), 10-year ($TNX) and 30-year ($TYX) gained or lost -10 basis points, -7bp, +2bp, and +1bp, respectively. These yields are now, respectively, at 2.52, 3.27, 3.98 and 4.53.

The T-Bill yield gained +19bp to 1.77 as pressure seemed to come off the Financials, and the rest of the market, on end-of-the-week Thursday.

After a huge safe-haven move into bonds on the previous Friday especially, the 20-year TLT closed at down at 92.07 from 92.32 and the TIP gained from 107.75 to 108.10.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DRE	22.60	-0.28	-1.22%	0.98%	-2.88%	-12.81%	-11.79%	-8.61%	-7.68%	-37.55%
TLT	92.07	-0.20	-0.22%	0.91%	3.11%	2.93%	-2.45%	-2.41%	-2.31%	8.61%
TIP	108.10	0.28	0.26%	0.82%	2.69%	2.53%	1.37%	-0.17%	1.03%	9.82%
NLY	15.60	0.10	0.65%	0.32%	-5.57%	-11.11%	-13.81%	-3.29%	-12.85%	6.70%
IEF	87.71	0.03	0.03%	0.23%	1.75%	0.58%	0.09%	-2.85%	-0.11%	8.74%
SHY	82.80	0.14	0.17%	0.01%	0.62%	-0.04%	0.56%	-0.99%	0.40%	3.66%
AGG	99.58	0.03	0.03%	-0.53%	0.02%	-0.84%	-2.04%	-1.99%	-2.30%	1.52%
EQR	37.83	0.54	1.45%	-1.43%	-9.08%	-14.33%	3.84%	-13.53%	8.43%	-17.65%
AVB	86.97	-0.68	-0.78%	-1.84%	-9.80%	-17.24%	-4.79%	-16.57%	-0.98%	-28.91%
CFC	4.2500	-0.1700	-3.85%	-4.49%	-15.00%	-20.11%	-52.78%	-24.51%	-51.43%	-88.31%
FNM	18.78	-0.65	-3.35%	-10.74%	-24.88%	-31.93%	-49.87%	-39.16%	-47.72%	-71.91%
FRE	14.50	-1.42	-8.92%	-21.75%	-38.69%	-42.67%	-55.71%	-48.85%	-54.97%	-76.52%

The big three of the mortgage suppliers, CFC, FNM and FRE, are basically toast. Despite the BAC take-over of Countrywide, the CFC lost -4.5% to 4.25. That’s a 52-week loss of -88.31%, which would require a subsequent gain of +855.43% to recapture the lost capital. Anyway, this dog is now owned by Bank of America.

Amazing ratings upgrade:

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it raised its ratings on Countrywide Financial Corp., including its counterparty rating to 'AA/A-1+' from 'BB+/B', following the completion of the acquisition of Countrywide by Bank of America Corp., rated 'AA/A-1+'.

This week, FNM and FRE were summarily trashed, respectively, -10.74% [after losing -12.64% the prior week] to $18.78, and -21.75% [after losing -18.19% the prior week] to $14.50. The 52-week losses are –71.91%, and -76.52%, respectively. That would require a subsequent gain of +344% and +426% to make back.

The moral is don’t lose it in the first place.

Needless to say there were mega-million dollar compensation packages the managers received!

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB gained +1.71% to close at 472.36, following the gain a week ago of +1.98%.

The NYMEX has started raising margin requirements. This will impact speculation.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) gained +5.08% to close the week at 145.29/bbl, following the prior week’s gain of +$4.85/bbl. This was another all-time record weekly close.

“How many remember $51/bbl in January 2007?”

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 129.29 (amazing!!), and the 200d MA is 103.71!

Imagine; it was just a short time ago that I thought we’d never see the current price above 100, nevertheless today’s price! But these are contract markets that involve excessive speculation at times, despite the rhetoric that says speculation is not a factor.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

For the past two weeks, $GOLD gained +27.60/oz and +30.60/oz. This week the gain is (+2.30/oz +0.25%) to 933.60. The $USD has rallied a bit.

Six weeks ago (WIR #21 May 24), the price of gold closed at $925.80 and the price today is $933.60. The only traders who have made any serious money are at JP Morgan (and that’s for obvious reasons).

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 893.60, and the 200d MA is 869.08.

After the goldminer stocks did have a massive +9% to +10% moves in the indexes a week ago, this week there were losses.

A week ago I wrote in this space that “The leading goldminer index ($XAU) was up this week (+8.90% to 194.49), but had a close of 188.10 just five weeks ago, so the net gain is not significant. To change my strategy, I need to see (i) the $USD collapse, (ii) the $XAU continue to power north with the gains spread across the penny gold stocks as well, and (iii) the Fed admit that the inflation fight is not going as well as hoped. The latter could be a case of waiting for the impossible.”

This week, $XAU, GDX and XGD dropped -2.96%, -2.89% and -1.68%, respectively.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER gained +0.66/oz or +3.73%, closing at 18.37.

Long term, I think $SILVER will trade well above $21.44, which is the cycle high. As I say, “But not right away. For now, we are in a mini-deflation for speculative prices (ie, non economic prices) because the banks have no money and are seeking $USD from anybody, including from silver crazies.”

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 17.12, which is a reversal of the recent decline, and the 200d MA is 16.32.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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This week $PLAT lost -32.00/oz to close at 2030.40. The loss a week earlier was -6.50/oz. Over four weeks, there have been big losses in Platinum.

The 50-day MA is 2045.55 and the 200-day MA is 1777.14.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALLADIUM lost -4.65/oz to close at 466.55/oz. The prior week’s loss was -8.00/oz.

The 50-day MA is now 449.59 and the 200-day MA is 421.38.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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This week, $COPPER gained +7.10 (+1.83%), closing at 394.90.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 375.09 and the 200-day MA is 354.00.

Even though the current price is well above the 50-day MA, I still think the 200d-MA is going to be a battleground for copper traders.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HMY	11.98	-0.14	-1.16%	6.11%	6.30%	0.76%	11.44%	-0.66%	3.45%	-16.57%
ABX	45.09	-0.09	-0.20%	4.76%	12.53%	11.53%	-2.02%	3.80%	-7.43%	52.33%
AU	33.53	-0.40	-1.18%	4.52%	9.22%	-3.79%	-26.89%	-6.52%	-28.66%	-13.07%
GFI	12.33	-0.07	-0.56%	3.44%	13.33%	-1.83%	-19.94%	-10.00%	-24.03%	-22.40%
KGC	22.88	-0.29	-1.25%	2.42%	18.73%	17.33%	13.55%	1.02%	9.95%	85.87%
GG	45.26	-0.75	-1.63%	2.07%	12.11%	14.61%	23.53%	14.44%	19.45%	85.42%
AEM	72.40	-1.21	-1.64%	1.99%	13.13%	8.50%	28.10%	6.44%	23.76%	94.21%
AUY	15.90	-0.27	-1.67%	1.86%	9.81%	6.50%	14.64%	10.57%	7.07%	39.96%
BVN	62.38	-2.22	-3.44%	0.99%	0.99%	-8.52%	2.46%	-8.01%	-1.33%	59.78%
LIHR	30.21	-1.06	-3.39%	-0.76%	3.00%	4.14%	-8.92%	-2.96%	-9.17%	15.04%
EGO	7.960	-0.550	-6.46%	-0.87%	-1.49%	-5.58%	28.39%	9.79%	26.75%	24.76%
NEM	50.15	-0.84	-1.65%	-3.89%	3.00%	4.70%	-4.28%	8.36%	-6.80%	26.87%

A week ago, I wrote, “The $XAU Goldminers index gained +15.89 (+8.90%) to 194.49. The GDX (+10.49%) and XGD (+10.28%) were even stronger. Very impressive moves, but I’d like to see the gains extended to the penny stocks in this industry. With just a two-day rocket launch of the major stocks in this group, I think this is an end-of-quarter hedge fund play.”

This week, all three goldminer indexes, $XAU (-2.96%), GDX (-2.89%), and GDX (-1.68%), were down despite gold and silver prices being up. Maybe I made a good call?

The 50d MA for $XAU is 180.55, and the 200d MA is 180.48.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

I have taken a much greater interest in the forex market than I have done over many years. The market deals in trillions, and offers narrow spreads and immediate trade execution.

This week the $USD gained +0.59% W/W to 72.72. With the ECB raising rates, the odds were against it, but the NYMEX did raise margin requirements for the energy and gold contracts, which may have depressed the speculators and boosted the $USD.

The 50-day MA is 72.97 and the 200-day MA is 74.86, so the current price is still below both.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) lost -0.61% W/W, closing at 1.5693.

The Euro 50day MA is 1.5580 (and falling) and the 200day MA is 1.5011.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound lost -0.70% W/W, closing at 1.9811.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 1.9692 and 1.9992.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lost -0.68%, closing at 93.66. There have been some tough days for the Yen Bulls.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 94.81 and the 200-day MA is 92.78. The current price is sitting above the 200-day MA.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) lost -0.86% W/W, closing at 98.05.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 99.08 and 100.17 respectively, which means the current price (98.05) is still bearish, ie, below both.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Here is the China Yuan (CNY) chart.

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International Equity Markets Review

There were some rather large losses this week throughout the global equity markets.

UK FTSE down from 5529.90 to 5412.80
German DAX down from 6421.91 to 6272.21
Aussie All-Ords down from 5349.4 to 5170
Shanghai Composite down from 2748.4 to 2669.89
HK Heng Seng down from 22042.4 to 21423.82
India’s BSE 30 down from 13802.2 to 13454
Japan’s Nikkei 225 down from 13544.4 to 13237.9

It’s a Bear market everywhere.

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I added 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices. This will come after we switch to the Drupal platform and get away from MT and TypeKey, which drives me nuts.

As I say, “the world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.” So this week, I am harping on the fact that international regulators will not easily accept the notion that the Fed is the top level global regulator of banks and brokers, which is a silly notion being promoted by US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson while he still works at the White House.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

---

Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWJ	12.29	0.04	0.33%	-0.73%	-5.46%	-11.14%	-7.11%	-3.76%	-7.45%	-16.62%
EWS	12.10	-0.03	-0.25%	-1.31%	-5.39%	-10.30%	-10.30%	-9.63%	-10.37%	-12.57%
EWU	20.17	0.11	0.55%	-1.32%	-7.05%	-11.22%	-15.54%	-10.28%	-16.06%	-22.24%
EWQ	31.59	0.27	0.86%	-1.80%	-8.59%	-14.74%	-16.74%	-12.13%	-16.76%	-19.19%
EWG	28.99	-0.01	-0.03%	-2.06%	-9.83%	-12.58%	-18.08%	-9.97%	-17.85%	-14.48%
EWC	32.30	-0.23	-0.71%	-2.42%	-6.08%	-7.42%	-0.31%	2.51%	-0.74%	6.53%
EWH	16.33	0.07	0.43%	-3.54%	-9.73%	-16.08%	-25.06%	-13.73%	-25.06%	-6.10%
EWA	25.55	-0.02	-0.08%	-3.73%	-6.72%	-10.66%	-11.22%	-6.27%	-11.65%	-11.90%
TRF	54.65	0.22	0.40%	-5.42%	-11.91%	-14.10%	-25.64%	-7.76%	-24.64%	-20.02%
EWZ	83.06	-0.90	-1.07%	-6.08%	-9.72%	-14.68%	2.61%	0.41%	3.04%	30.97%
IFN	34.76	-0.04	-0.11%	-7.31%	-17.55%	-21.48%	-43.84%	-26.56%	-41.18%	-22.82%

International ETF’s had another bad week. The worst were Brazil (EWZ -6.08%), and India (IFN -7.31%) again, after losing -8.79% the previous week.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA (-0.51%), the S&P 500 (-1.21%), and the NASDAQ Composite (-3.03%) all had bad holiday shortened weeks, but the worst hit of the major indexes was the Russell 2000 Small Cap index (-4.64%). In any case, Thursday’s trading performance was relatively stronger.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MRK	38.45	0.41	1.08%	6.22%	8.01%	-1.13%	-32.98%	0.23%	-32.92%	-22.84%
VZ	35.75	0.12	0.34%	4.20%	-2.05%	-8.24%	-17.26%	-6.09%	-17.65%	-15.12%
AXP	40.24	0.62	1.56%	3.47%	-5.61%	-15.16%	-21.16%	-13.80%	-20.17%	-35.53%
PFE	17.75	0.13	0.74%	3.38%	-0.11%	-4.93%	-22.52%	-16.82%	-23.43%	-31.23%
PG	63.67	0.98	1.56%	2.28%	-1.90%	-4.50%	-11.95%	-9.65%	-11.95%	3.04%
XOM	88.27	0.86	0.98%	2.15%	2.89%	-1.16%	-5.60%	0.05%	-5.93%	3.41%
GE	26.91	0.40	1.51%	1.43%	-3.58%	-13.36%	-26.80%	-28.88%	-26.88%	-30.47%
JNJ	65.12	0.48	0.74%	1.34%	0.77%	-2.75%	-1.20%	-0.23%	-1.23%	5.12%
MCD	57.19	-0.24	-0.42%	1.31%	-2.39%	-1.48%	-1.57%	1.69%	-1.28%	11.26%
CVX	98.63	1.21	1.24%	1.25%	1.83%	-1.36%	5.53%	12.44%	4.25%	14.25%
WMT	56.60	0.10	0.18%	-0.40%	-1.89%	-5.35%	20.68%	3.04%	22.04%	16.77%
MMM	69.46	0.98	1.43%	-1.14%	-6.29%	-10.37%	-16.02%	-13.36%	-16.01%	-21.01%
IBM	119.54	0.44	0.37%	-1.31%	-4.38%	-6.95%	14.18%	3.03%	13.96%	12.16%
DIS	30.90	0.19	0.62%	-2.00%	-6.05%	-10.41%	-2.95%	-2.00%	-2.74%	-10.54%
DD	41.80	0.15	0.36%	-2.38%	-11.81%	-12.42%	-4.44%	-14.83%	-5.17%	-19.82%
T	32.58	-0.31	-0.94%	-2.66%	-7.31%	-17.44%	-20.54%	-16.48%	-21.29%	-21.49%
HPQ	43.44	-0.17	-0.39%	-2.75%	-6.76%	-10.45%	-12.79%	-7.50%	-12.51%	-4.70%
UTX	61.05	1.35	2.26%	-2.77%	-11.29%	-12.75%	-18.83%	-13.72%	-19.97%	-15.76%
JPM	35.31	0.71	2.05%	-2.78%	-8.64%	-16.13%	-16.27%	-23.70%	-15.69%	-28.44%
KO	51.48	0.11	0.21%	-3.27%	-3.52%	-9.98%	-15.73%	-14.99%	-16.60%	-2.68%
INTC	20.66	-0.27	-1.29%	-4.31%	-9.58%	-13.45%	-18.50%	-5.79%	-16.25%	-15.98%
C	16.82	-0.02	-0.12%	-4.81%	-16.61%	-20.74%	-41.84%	-30.95%	-41.86%	-67.57%
CAT	70.31	-0.11	-0.16%	-5.34%	-11.54%	-15.01%	-0.45%	-8.77%	-0.10%	-9.85%
BA	64.47	0.57	0.89%	-5.48%	-16.22%	-16.61%	-25.57%	-15.33%	-25.88%	-33.98%
MSFT	25.98	0.10	0.39%	-6.38%	-10.20%	-8.20%	-26.24%	-10.41%	-26.55%	-13.46%
AIG	26.24	-0.51	-1.91%	-6.59%	-20.65%	-27.93%	-53.39%	-44.16%	-53.52%	-62.75%
AA	32.78	0.67	2.09%	-7.14%	-16.21%	-18.21%	-9.27%	-14.95%	-9.42%	-21.01%
HD	22.54	0.02	0.09%	-8.60%	-17.07%	-19.24%	-13.67%	-22.86%	-12.70%	-42.50%
BAC	22.40	-0.14	-0.62%	-9.71%	-20.40%	-29.98%	-44.77%	-44.51%	-44.42%	-54.79%
GM	10.12	0.14	1.40%	-11.46%	-31.58%	-40.65%	-58.54%	-53.13%	-57.69%	-73.35%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT CHV DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on two consumer companies, Procter & Gamble (a Cara 100) and Home Depot (formerly a Cara 100).

---

Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 4: next one is due Oct. 3)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 4: next one is due Oct. 3)

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There is really not a lot for me to say about these companies. I think the price is in mid-cycle—Bear cycle that is.

---

The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports. I added the Google Finance links, which are superb.

General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Google Finance file)
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Google Finance file)
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Google Finance file)
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Google Finance file)
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Google Finance file)
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Google Finance file)
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Google Finance file)
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Google Finance file)
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Google Finance file)
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Google Finance file)
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Google Finance file)
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May 2: next one is due Aug. 1)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Google Finance file)
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 9: next one is due Aug. 8)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Google Finance file)
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Google Finance file)
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 16: next one is due Aug. 15)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Google Finance file)
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Google Finance file)
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Google Finance file)
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Google Finance file)
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Google Finance file)
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Google Finance file)
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 23: next one is due Aug. 22)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Google Finance file)
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report May 30: next one is due Aug. 29)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Google Finance file)
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance fle)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report May 30: next one is due Aug. 29)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Google Finance file)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 6: next one is due Sept. 5)

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Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Google Finance file)
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Google Finance file)
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 13: next one is due Sep. 12)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Google Finance file)
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 20: next one is due Sep. 19)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Google Finance file)
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 27: next one is due Sep. 26)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Google Finance file)
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 27: next one is due Sep. 26)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Google Finance file)
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 4: next one is due Oct. 3)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Google Finance file)
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 4: next one is due Oct. 3)

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Wrap up:

If you happen to be at Atlantis Resort on Paradise Island today, you’ll see me about a mile offshore fishing in a 48-foot sports-fisherman yacht, seeking snapper in 1,000-foot waters, at the edge of the drop-off.

Somebody’s got to do it.

Have a great day. Ours will be supported by the French: Pouilly Fumé and Chateau de la Chaize.

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