Over 52 weeks, the loss is -45.83%, which means that to make back this capital loss requires a gain of +185%. That’s going to take some time, which is the principle behind why I was predominantly negative in this blog for the past couple years except for a few times where I saw extreme buying opportunities in selective groups.

You see, I know from experience in money management what it means to run numbers like losing -46% in blue-chip stocks and the impact it has on the individual or family owner of the capital.

So, it comes as somewhat amusing to me that shortly before the broad market cycle top there was a comment on a major financial newspaper website that uttered “the Bill Cara blog is the joke of the blogging world.” Some joke; some people never grow up! They even choose to hide behind nicknames.

Given the lag time (anticipated by me btw) from when I first put you on alert that market conditions were rapidly deteriorating to the time many of you made decisions to go to cash, I am confident I did the right thing in the past two years. If I didn’t think I was helping many people, I would admit it.

For those of you who in the past year needed to diversify portfolios by investing in Financial Services, you could still have beaten the sector standard (XLF) just by avoiding a few of the worst cases. For instance, XLF is down -29.69% YTD, but LEH, UBS, C and MER dropped -63.26%, -55.62%, -41.84% and -41.02% respectively. Of course that takes judgment and good timing. In my case, two of these four were in the Cara 100, but I recognized the issues fairly early on when the price changes told me these companies were broken and I dumped them, knowing the largest percentage losses invariably come late in the Bear phase.

Why I stuck it out with UBS (in the Cara 100) is something I have grappled with, and come up short of a good answer. I suppose it’s a measure of the respect I once had for that company. Today, that bank needs to seriously re-evaluate their model, and make changes in senior management, probably disgorging some of the divisions that have created the biggest conflicts from their primary and best known services.

But that’s trading. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Because we don’t know the future, to a large degree anyway, we make decisions and try to keep the bad ones to a minimum, knowing we are going to make many. It is the net result that counts.

Today’s cover of Barron’s is headlined, “The Bear’s Back” – something you have known for a while, and protected yourself.

Now traders have to be conscious that the broad market indexes in the US and elsewhere, for the most part, are over-sold. They may rebound in a summer rally—with the operative word being ‘may’.

I hope you take the time to review the charts below. You will discover that whether it’s the daily, weekly or monthly data, the RSI/Stochastic momentum indicators are low. For instance, the (i) DJIA, (ii) S&P 500, (iii) NASDAQ Composite and (iv) Russell 2000 are (for D-W-M ): (i) 22.3-25.1-26.3; (ii) 20.6-27.5-29.4; (iii) 22.2-30.2-36.6; and (iv) 17.5-27.9-32.0.

For the six most important sector studies: (i) XLE (ii) XLB (iii) XLI (iv) XLY (v) XLF, and (vi) XLK, the D-W-M RSI-7 are: (i) 37.2-54.3-65.3; (ii) 20.1-30.8-43.6; (iii) 25.7-25.3-28.1; (iv) 25.6-27.7-19.7; (v) 18.6-19.2-15.7; and (vi) 13.7-31.1-38.8. Obviously, you have to examine the charts to see if the RSI-7 is increasing or decreasing.

As most of you know, my simple RSI system shows Accumulation and Distribution Zones when the RSI-7 is below the 30 line for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily data series and above 70 for the same. But a Buy Alert for a short-term oriented trader is when the Daily RSI-7 pops back up over 30, if confirmed by similar RSI turnabouts in similar stocks. For an intermediate-term oriented trader, there should be a crossing of the 30 line in both Daily and Weekly RSI-7 data, and for a long-term oriented trader, the crossing of the 30 line should happen in the Daily, Weekly and Monthly.

This not a perfect system. It does, however, map the market in a simple way for traders to more easily see the pitfalls of trading blind. Over the years, this system will lead you to buy lower and sell higher than you might otherwise do. As you learn it and apply it, you will discover nuances that are also helpful to you.

Trading is not simple, which is why there is no perfect system. For most of us when asked the question, “How’s it going?” there ought to be a smile and a reply, “Oh, just gettin’ by.” Same thing for life in general.

You see, most people make their lives and their portfolio strategies and tactics too complex. As for me, if you can eliminate the conflicts of interest and the random noise, you’ll see that “getting’ by” has become a whole lot easier and more financially productive.

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Global Economics Review

The macro-economic data continues to worsen, both in America and abroad.

Weekly International Economic Report . Note that this report was taken with closing data for July 3, but global markets ex-USA were open Friday July 4.

The Econoday conclusion to this week’s report is as follows:

Last week’s economic data illustrated rather graphically how weak output is becoming in the U.S. and Europe. And while the Japanese Tankan showed vulnerability, it was not as weak as some analysts had expected. Equities sank while the U.S. dollar managed to rise in the U.S. holiday shortened week. While the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key interest rate at 7.25 percent, the European Central Bank increased its key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent.

This week, the Bank of England holds its monthly two day meeting. The Bank is caught between rapidly softening growth and high inflation. Like the ECB, its latest inflation reading is far above its 2 percent inflation target at 3.3 percent.

The leaders of the Group of Eight countries will hold their annual meeting July 7 through July 9 in Hokkaido, Japan. Among the items under discussion is expected to be the fallout from last summer's global credit market meltdown. The subprime mortgage issues in the U.S. are largely under control, but financial market turbulence continues to be a concern, officials said. Leaders are also expected to concentrate on the economic problems brought on by soaring prices for oil and basic food products.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Economic Calendar. In addition to the US Consumer Confidence index and the Fed monetary policy decision being reported on Wednesday, there were a few other important reports.

US Manufacturing data for June. Conditions had stabilized in May, but employment levels were down and prices paid for materials had soared. For June, Econoday reported: “Raw material costs are soaring in the U.S. manufacturing sector reflected in a rare 91.5 reading in the ISM's prices paid index for June, not a record but surpassed in 60 years of data only during the oil embargo of the mid-70s. Employment is the other major negative in the report, falling nearly 2 points to 43.7 to signal yet another contraction for factory jobs in Thursday's monthly jobs report.”

US Factory Orders for May. The question is how bad was it for vehicles and construction machinery. The auto manufacturers reported that sales hit the wall to begin June, but I think the seriousness of the latest pullback was felt in May. I only look at Brunswick Corp to see the layoffs and plant closings in this segment. For May, Econoday reported: “Indications confirm that the manufacturing sector is steady and is not dipping into recession. Factory orders for May rose 0.6 percent with durable goods orders, data released in the advance durable goods report last week, unrevised at no change in the month. The no change reading is an improvement from declines in the previous two months and in three of the prior four months.”

On Thursday morning ET, the European Central Bank released its decision on monetary policy. Econoday reported: “As expected by virtually all analysts, the European Central Bank increased its key policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent. The spread between U.S. and EMU interest rates is now 2.25 percent. The latest flash reading for the harmonized index of consumer prices showed that inflation soared by 4 percent in June, the highest rate since statistics began in 1997. That means that inflation is about double the ECB's inflation target of below but close to 2 percent. And producer prices soared by 7.1 percent on the year in May. In an interview recently, ECB president Jean Claude Trichet said that there is a risk of inflation exploding if central banks did not act decisively.”

US employment report for June. Econoday reported: “The June jobs report showed further contraction in employment but the declines remain mild. Thus far, job losses are still at a rate soft enough to not pull the overall economy into recession. Nonfarm payroll employment in June fell 62,000, following a decline of also 62,000 in May and a decrease of 67,000 in March.” I think this report by Econoday is too much spin for vested interests, and does not adequately reflect the reality that the economy is receding. A healthy economy in the US needs net 180,000 job growth each month.

US Non-Manufacturing Business index for June. Econoday reported: “Prices soared on the manufacturing side and are soaring as well on the non-manufacturing side as the Institute For Supply Management's prices paid index hit a record high 84.5 in June, up 7.5 points from May. There are now indications that these pressures are slowing growth, reflected in a sub-50 reading for the non-manufacturing composite headline index which fell to 48.2 vs. May's much better reading of 51.7. The business activity index, the report's former headline index that is the sum to a single question, also dipped below 50 to 49.9, down nearly 4 points to confirm the trouble.”

How is next week’s calendar looking?

US Economic Calendar.

US Consumer Credit report for May. People are being squeezed, as this report is likely to show.

On Thursday morning at 7:00am ET, the Bank of England will release their monetary policy decision. Like Europe where the ECB raised rates last week, inflation in the UK is a definite threat, so a rate increase may happen.

Then at 10:00am ET, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson will testify to the House Financial Service Committee on financial market regulatory restructuring. I eagerly await Rep. Dr. Ron Paul’s questioning.

US Import and Export Prices for June. Econoday notes, “Import prices are experiencing extreme pressure from a surge in oil prices and other commodities. May's 2.3 percent spike in import prices put the year-on-year pace at a sharp 17.8 percent. Petroleum import prices jumped 7.8 percent in the month for a year-on-year rate of 68.8 percent.”

US international trade report for May. Econoday notes: “The U.S. international trade gap widened sharply in April - primarily due to a run up in oil prices. The overall U.S. trade gap widened to $60.9 billion from a $56.5 billion deficit in March. Exports rebounded a healthy 3.3 percent but imports surged 4.5 percent. While the oil gap jumped, the nonoil gap was little changed. The oil trade gap grew to $34.5 billion from $30.2 billion in March while the nonoil deficit was unchanged at $36.1 billion in April. The jump in the oil gap was due to a spike in oil prices to $96.81 per barrel from $89.85 in March. With the continuing increases in oil prices, we are likely to see a further boost in the trade gap in May.”

U Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for July. Econoday notes: “(The) index has been near record lows as consumers have been hard squeezed by record gasoline prices, rising food price inflation, and fears of job losses. The consumer sentiment index dropped 3.4 points in June to a 56.4 reading. This is the third lowest reading for the series which goes all the way back to 1952 (lowest readings are 52.7 April 1980 and 51.7 May 1980). The expectations component was also quite weak, coming in at 49.2, down nearly 2 points from May. What should be of concern for the Fed are the recently elevated numbers for inflation expectations with the latest one year out number at 3.4 percent and five year inflation expectations at 5.1 percent.”

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

This week was yet another bad one for the Bulls.

There were 8 of 10 sectors that dropped in price. There were 20 of 30 Dow components that were down. Both were slight improvements over the previous week.

The DJIA index was actually down less this week, losing 0.51% to 11289. The S&P 500 lost -1.21% to 1262.90 and the Russell Small Cap index plunged -4.64% to 665.78.

Only Health (IYH +1.58%) and Utilities (XLU +0.77%) managed gains over the four-day week.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The NASDAQ Composite dropped -3.03% W/W vs -3.76% the prior week and -2.0% the week before that. Part of the problem for the NASDAQ this week was Microsoft (MSFT), which lost -6.38%. Bill Gates officially stepped down as Executive Chairman.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week, there were 2 sectors up and 8 down, which was 1 better than a week earlier. On the shortened pre-holiday Thursday session, the scoreboard read 6 up and 4 down.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IYH	61.80	0.02	0.03%	1.58%	-0.80%	-5.00%	-11.84%	-2.91%	-12.34%	-12.17%
XLU	40.38	-0.42	-1.03%	0.77%	-3.00%	-3.14%	-4.06%	2.98%	-3.93%	0.57%
XLP	26.67	0.01	0.04%	-0.30%	-3.02%	-6.91%	-6.06%	-5.19%	-5.56%	-2.16%
SPY	126.31	0.13	0.10%	-1.50%	-6.04%	-10.28%	-12.85%	-7.83%	-12.81%	-17.09%
XLI	33.41	0.45	1.37%	-1.50%	-8.91%	-13.24%	-13.24%	-12.65%	-13.31%	-15.63%
XLE	84.90	-1.32	-1.53%	-1.84%	-2.00%	-2.99%	6.79%	10.72%	5.54%	20.00%
XLY	28.05	0.24	0.86%	-2.30%	-9.52%	-13.80%	-12.89%	-12.89%	-11.90%	-29.17%
XLK	22.35	-0.05	-0.22%	-3.16%	-7.84%	-12.04%	-14.43%	-4.16%	-14.56%	-14.04%
IYZ	23.05	-0.26	-1.12%	-3.60%	-8.53%	-15.94%	-20.98%	-5.26%	-20.52%	-33.32%
XLF	19.94	-0.09	-0.45%	-4.32%	-12.31%	-19.07%	-29.69%	-25.49%	-29.24%	-45.83%
SMH	28.70	-0.18	-0.62%	-4.33%	-9.41%	-12.77%	-8.48%	-5.96%	-6.85%	-25.95%
XLB	39.45	0.23	0.59%	-5.10%	-11.25%	-13.26%	-4.48%	-7.15%	-6.18%	-4.15%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to many ETFs, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XOM	88.27	0.86	0.98%	2.15%	2.89%	-1.16%	-5.60%	0.05%	-5.93%	3.41%
CEO	170.99	-3.92	-2.24%	1.97%	4.77%	-1.79%	2.13%	8.54%	0.68%	43.11%
CVX	98.63	1.21	1.24%	1.25%	1.83%	-1.36%	5.53%	12.44%	4.25%	14.25%
STO	35.95	-0.17	-0.47%	0.28%	-4.31%	-3.93%	15.08%	17.37%	13.19%	15.45%
ECA	88.91	-1.22	-1.35%	-0.01%	-1.97%	-1.96%	27.73%	16.09%	24.82%	41.26%
TOT	80.67	-0.26	-0.32%	-1.19%	1.06%	-5.98%	-3.13%	5.27%	-5.21%	-2.05%
IMO	52.93	-1.47	-2.70%	-2.58%	-4.66%	-9.72%	-3.62%	0.63%	-3.66%	12.93%
SLB	101.88	-1.48	-1.43%	-2.98%	-2.81%	-2.96%	1.29%	11.59%	-0.42%	15.92%
PBR	65.72	-1.38	-2.06%	-3.81%	-1.40%	-4.10%	-44.68%	-40.23%	-43.71%	2.10%
SU	57.38	1.95	3.52%	-3.89%	-6.82%	-14.52%	4.08%	15.13%	1.61%	25.64%
PTR	123.89	1.40	1.14%	-3.93%	-11.82%	-12.93%	-28.66%	-8.54%	-27.40%	-19.81%
RIG	142.91	-3.14	-2.15%	-5.53%	-3.50%	-3.09%	-2.08%	1.80%	-2.08%	31.92%

Crude Oil ($WTIC +5.08/bbl to 145.29, which followed the previous week’s gain of + 4.85/bbl) set another new all-time record weekly close.

But traders are now thinking these gains to top-line prices are unsustainable. XLE lost -1.84% to close at 84.90. Thursday’s loss was -1.53%.

Margin requirements for many of the NYMEX energy contracts were raised this week.

The stock winners this week were XOM (+2.2%), CEO (+2.0%) and CVX (+1.3%). RIG (-5.5%), PTR (-3.9%), SU (-3.9%), and PBR (-3.8%) were losers.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
VCP	26.05	0.00	0.00%	-2.36%	-11.12%	-25.42%	-12.29%	-15.94%	-14.42%	13.31%
TS	67.09	-1.83	-2.66%	-2.81%	-1.89%	3.39%	51.14%	30.81%	49.59%	35.45%
DOW	34.10	0.18	0.53%	-2.85%	-10.94%	-14.64%	-12.00%	-11.27%	-11.50%	-24.66%
RTP	433.29	3.29	0.77%	-4.49%	-9.64%	-8.81%	3.24%	-0.78%	1.17%	35.26%
BHP	77.29	-0.46	-0.59%	-4.71%	-10.93%	-8.21%	9.77%	9.55%	6.98%	24.40%
TCK	44.43	0.05	0.11%	-6.07%	-8.47%	-9.35%	22.60%	2.00%	22.06%	3.18%
PKX	116.23	-1.37	-1.16%	-6.93%	-14.41%	-20.96%	-20.64%	-9.93%	-21.33%	-7.75%
AA	32.78	0.67	2.09%	-7.14%	-16.21%	-18.21%	-9.27%	-14.95%	-9.42%	-21.01%
GGB	21.41	-1.15	-5.10%	-7.48%	-58.46%	-58.41%	-25.40%	-38.01%	-26.90%	-19.09%
RIO	32.08	-0.25	-0.77%	-9.71%	-11.09%	-17.13%	-1.93%	-10.89%	-3.05%	-30.86%
MT	83.80	0.40	0.48%	-14.84%	-17.59%	-19.62%	9.69%	1.60%	10.47%	30.65%
NUE	62.54	0.60	0.97%	-15.34%	-19.10%	-22.35%	7.88%	-10.14%	10.01%	5.62%

Basic Materials (XLB -5.10% to 39.45, following prior weeks’ losses of -3.31% and -2.90%) were hammered again.

The economy is a great leveler. For the past couple weeks, the Papers and Chemicals have fared badly. This week, the Steels and Base Metal Miners were added to the scrap pile.

In this sector, there were few winners, and some huge losers. For instance, NUE (-15.3%), MT (-14.8%), RIO (-9.7%), GGB (-7.5%), AA (-7.1%) and TCK (-6.1%) were big losers. The table source data for GGB does not recognize the share split.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HON	50.31	0.69	1.39%	2.38%	-9.11%	-11.27%	-16.01%	-12.72%	-16.43%	-12.05%
GE	26.91	0.40	1.51%	1.43%	-3.58%	-13.36%	-26.80%	-28.88%	-26.88%	-30.47%
TXT	47.84	0.89	1.90%	0.23%	-9.29%	-21.74%	-28.39%	-17.49%	-29.45%	-16.01%
UPS	59.47	0.93	1.59%	-0.68%	-11.03%	-16.30%	-14.01%	-20.26%	-14.10%	-18.76%
MMM	69.46	0.98	1.43%	-1.14%	-6.29%	-10.37%	-16.02%	-13.36%	-16.01%	-21.01%
FLR	179.92	-0.04	-0.02%	-1.93%	-5.24%	-4.81%	24.60%	17.86%	18.72%	57.55%
UTX	61.05	1.35	2.26%	-2.77%	-11.29%	-12.75%	-18.83%	-13.72%	-19.97%	-15.76%
ABB	27.37	0.45	1.67%	-2.98%	-11.88%	-16.27%	-4.43%	0.77%	-2.53%	15.73%
FDX	74.97	0.27	0.36%	-4.00%	-8.27%	-19.98%	-12.99%	-23.24%	-14.13%	-32.46%
CAT	70.31	-0.11	-0.16%	-5.34%	-11.54%	-15.01%	-0.45%	-8.77%	-0.10%	-9.85%
BA	64.47	0.57	0.89%	-5.48%	-16.22%	-16.61%	-25.57%	-15.33%	-25.88%	-33.98%
ERJ	24.42	-0.49	-1.97%	-12.50%	-18.19%	-29.65%	-45.89%	-39.63%	-47.66%	-49.87%

The Industrials (XLI -1.50% W/W) had a losing week, closing at 33.41. The prior weeks’ losses were -3.31% and -2.97%.

HON (+2.4%) and GE (+1.4%) were winners.

The biggest losers a week ago [ERJ (-12%) and BA (-11.8%)] were down -12.5% and -5.5% respectively this week. FDX dropped -4.0%.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JCP	36.69	0.71	1.97%	1.97%	-1.50%	-9.54%	-11.91%	-8.96%	-7.91%	-48.71%
TGT	46.90	0.21	0.45%	-1.55%	-9.46%	-14.15%	-5.27%	-11.92%	-5.39%	-25.86%
NKE	58.52	0.43	0.74%	-1.65%	-13.74%	-16.48%	-7.52%	-15.07%	-6.68%	-0.78%
DIS	30.90	0.19	0.62%	-2.00%	-6.05%	-10.41%	-2.95%	-2.00%	-2.74%	-10.54%
TM	92.00	0.60	0.66%	-2.65%	-9.94%	-13.81%	-13.58%	-8.04%	-13.94%	-28.11%
EBAY	26.80	-0.31	-1.14%	-2.86%	-8.12%	-10.84%	-17.51%	-15.51%	-18.39%	-16.64%
BDK	56.53	0.87	1.56%	-3.76%	-5.25%	-11.48%	-19.16%	-19.23%	-18.30%	-36.37%
BBBY	28.42	0.41	1.46%	-4.60%	-4.25%	-10.66%	0.21%	-9.86%	3.72%	-21.17%
CCL	31.89	-0.34	-1.05%	-4.72%	-13.44%	-18.96%	-26.96%	-24.25%	-25.75%	-33.10%
WHR	62.69	1.83	3.01%	-5.37%	-6.29%	-11.72%	-21.52%	-31.53%	-20.77%	-44.21%
BC	10.15	0.05	0.50%	-12.20%	-18.47%	-28.52%	-40.01%	-40.40%	-38.30%	-69.21%
GOL	9.300	-0.770	-7.65%	-17.77%	-31.16%	-36.30%	-61.23%	-41.58%	-60.22%	-71.78%

Consumer Cyclicals (XLY -2.30% closing at 28.05) was another loser. Even with the rebates, the US consumer is not putting more cash in the register than the cost of goods sold is being impacted by material and delivery costs.

The big Cara 100 losers here were GOL (-17.8% after losing -12.0% the previous week), BC (-12.2% to $10.15), WHR -5.4% and CCL (-4.7% after losing -7.2% the previous week).

High fuel costs are killing many of these stocks. Some of them, including Cara 100’s ought to be reviewed in the light of potential business failure.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PEP	66.77	1.01	1.54%	3.09%	1.34%	-0.77%	-11.32%	-6.48%	-11.89%	1.80%
KR	29.45	0.45	1.55%	2.94%	11.17%	3.70%	14.73%	16.04%	14.01%	3.26%
PG	63.67	0.98	1.56%	2.28%	-1.90%	-4.50%	-11.95%	-9.65%	-11.95%	3.04%
BUD	61.67	-0.01	-0.02%	0.52%	1.02%	6.79%	19.45%	27.36%	17.22%	19.91%
WMT	56.60	0.10	0.18%	-0.40%	-1.89%	-5.35%	20.68%	3.04%	22.04%	16.77%
DEO	71.49	0.93	1.32%	-3.14%	-2.48%	-10.19%	-15.95%	-15.78%	-16.20%	-14.54%
KO	51.48	0.11	0.21%	-3.27%	-3.52%	-9.98%	-15.73%	-14.99%	-16.60%	-2.68%
WAG	31.45	0.06	0.19%	-4.35%	-11.26%	-14.31%	-15.77%	-17.65%	-10.30%	-28.28%
SBUX	15.56	-0.12	-0.77%	-4.42%	-13.51%	-15.98%	-19.42%	-15.16%	-16.79%	-40.97%
ABV	59.78	-0.27	-0.45%	-6.39%	-10.86%	-12.55%	-17.52%	-25.74%	-19.84%	-14.82%
WFMI	22.71	-0.01	-0.04%	-9.52%	-14.53%	-23.61%	-42.88%	-32.55%	-42.51%	-40.57%
PDA	48.36	-1.86	-3.70%	-9.79%	-18.10%	-19.29%	0.48%	-1.95%	-1.43%	21.81%

This week, Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30% W/W) closed at 26.67, although that might possibly be an error since the price was a dime lower a week ago.

PEP (+3.1%) was the Consumer Staples winner on the week. The losers were PDA (-9.8%), WFMI (-9.5% after losing -6.3% a week ago) and ABV (-6.4%).

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AMGN	50.84	2.00	4.10%	9.66%	13.33%	13.15%	9.10%	22.30%	11.27%	-7.88%
DNA	77.94	-0.20	-0.26%	7.59%	3.84%	6.61%	15.64%	-1.86%	16.14%	1.50%
BMY	20.78	0.19	0.92%	5.64%	4.32%	-4.11%	-20.47%	-5.07%	-20.41%	-34.59%
GSK	46.77	1.59	3.52%	5.58%	7.17%	8.21%	-6.78%	4.58%	-7.88%	-11.02%
NVS	56.51	-0.02	-0.