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July 16, 2008
Daily Report for Wed, Jul 16, 2008
Markets Re-cap
The largest single-session decline in oil since 1990 rallied the US equity market for as long as it took traders to start selling into strength. At the close yesterday, the DJIA finished below 11,000 for the first time since July 21, 2006.
But the session was a rollercoaster ride as traders sold the Banks off the top, then listened to Fed head Bernanke tell Congress that the economy is weak and looking bleak. At that point the DJIA had sunk -227 points, but that was followed by President Bush trying to cheer lead the nation in a TV broadcast, and SEC Chairman Cox announcing an investigation into tracking down rumors and also illegal shorting. Then, as if on cue, the oil prices started to crash and the equity market responded until reaching positive territory– at least to 3:00pm ET when the massive selling started. This was quite a day.
At the bell, the DJIA (-0.85% to 10962.54) and S&P 500 (-1.09% to 1214.91) were down, but the NASDAQ Composite was up (+013% to 2215.71), with traders awaiting good news from Intel (INTC), which did come.
Then this morning, Wells Fargo Bank (WFC) has beaten earnings estimates plus increased its dividend, which has put some color on the rose this morning.
The winning sector was Healthcare (XLV +0.5%), led by Biotech ($BTK +2.9%), which was led by Genentech (DNA +5.1%).
The losers were Energy (XLE -4.2%), Financials (XLF -3.1%), and Industrials (XLI -2.0%).
The Energy stocks sell-off was led by NatGas ($XNG -4.3%), Oil Services ($OSX -3.8%) and Oils ($XOI -3.7%).
What with the Financials like FNM and FRE cutting dividends, other corporate earnings releases, the GM re-organization story, CPI data, Fed Minutes, and all, there are many situations for traders to follow.
Equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed: Australia (+0.76% to 4947.5), Shanghai (-2.65% to 2705.9), Hong Kong (+0.23% to 21223.5), India (-0.79% to 12575.8), and Japan (+0.05% to 12760.8) seem to indicate that traders are undecided on market direction.
At this point in the session (8:08am ET, 1308 GMT), the European bourses are under moderate pressure, with the Financials being sold off. The UK FTSE is down -1.70% to 5083; French CAC -0.23% to 4052; and the German DAX -0.72% to 6038, but a turn seems to be occurring as prices are strengthening.
The $USD and Euro/USD futures yesterday were both down: (-0.23%) to 0.7129 for $USD, and (-0.03%) to 1.5904 for the Euro. The gains were in the Yen (+1.47%), Pound (+0.52%) and Loonie (+0.42%).
$GOLD gained +$5.00/oz to close at 978.70, after hitting a low on the day of 968.70.
Crude Oil futures closed at 139.37 (down -$6.41/bbl) after being down as low as 136.53.
Precious metal prices (spot) at 8:07am ET for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are (compared to yesterday morning): 970.81 (984.43); 432 (447); 1946 (2008); and 18.74 (19.355).
The $USD and Euro/USD futures are at the rates of 0.7192 and 1.5854, after being at 0.7203 and 1.5859 respectively an hour ago. So the Dollar is weakening a bit.
The DJIA futures at 8:54am ET are at 10911 after being at 10893 an hour ago, so the Bulls are gaining a bit.
Comments & Outlook
The selling of Energy stocks has been led by Exxon (XOM), which is, as I have opined all along, down almost to the 70’s. There was also some selling yesterday in Suncor (SU -5.5%), but I strongly feel that at the cycle bottom for the broad market, which I feel will come in the next couple months, traders ere should be accumulating an overweighting in the Canadian oilsands companies, like SU. In fact, I wouldn’t wait too long.
The GM story is, in my eyes, pathetic. How this company can unilaterally cut the pension benefits of its retirees is beyond me. How are retirees, some quite elderly ever going to afford healthcare premiums on their own now? This man Rick Wagoner, once again, shows me he is the very bottom of the barrel, a rotten apple, amongst American CEO's. My beef is that it's easy for him to beat down old people after they have given the best years of their life to the company that has been paying him mega-millions for what. This guy, as smooth a salesman as he is, has done nothing but make one bad management decision after another. Now he intends to arbitrarily bankrupt thousands of America's finest elderly citizens. I ask again, for what purpose? I feel sick about this and hope he gets his ass sued.
Where is Toyota, Honda and Nissan when America needs them to take over the likes of GM, Ford and Chrysler? If America wants to save itself, start by getting rid of Detroit's Big Three.
And as for big-bellied beer drinkers demanding that their BUD stay American, I can't stop laughing.
On another matter, I’ll try to clean up the price tables today. In fact today will be spent mostly on catching up with admin and mail. I haven’t had much time since mid-week last week.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 12: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 16, 2008 09:14:52 AM | Category: Daily Report









