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July 16, 2008

Daily Report for Wed, Jul 16, 2008

Markets Re-cap

The largest single-session decline in oil since 1990 rallied the US equity market for as long as it took traders to start selling into strength. At the close yesterday, the DJIA finished below 11,000 for the first time since July 21, 2006.

But the session was a rollercoaster ride as traders sold the Banks off the top, then listened to Fed head Bernanke tell Congress that the economy is weak and looking bleak. At that point the DJIA had sunk -227 points, but that was followed by President Bush trying to cheer lead the nation in a TV broadcast, and SEC Chairman Cox announcing an investigation into tracking down rumors and also illegal shorting. Then, as if on cue, the oil prices started to crash and the equity market responded until reaching positive territory– at least to 3:00pm ET when the massive selling started. This was quite a day.

At the bell, the DJIA (-0.85% to 10962.54) and S&P 500 (-1.09% to 1214.91) were down, but the NASDAQ Composite was up (+013% to 2215.71), with traders awaiting good news from Intel (INTC), which did come.

Then this morning, Wells Fargo Bank (WFC) has beaten earnings estimates plus increased its dividend, which has put some color on the rose this morning.

The winning sector was Healthcare (XLV +0.5%), led by Biotech ($BTK +2.9%), which was led by Genentech (DNA +5.1%).

The losers were Energy (XLE -4.2%), Financials (XLF -3.1%), and Industrials (XLI -2.0%).

The Energy stocks sell-off was led by NatGas ($XNG -4.3%), Oil Services ($OSX -3.8%) and Oils ($XOI -3.7%).

What with the Financials like FNM and FRE cutting dividends, other corporate earnings releases, the GM re-organization story, CPI data, Fed Minutes, and all, there are many situations for traders to follow.

Equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed: Australia (+0.76% to 4947.5), Shanghai (-2.65% to 2705.9), Hong Kong (+0.23% to 21223.5), India (-0.79% to 12575.8), and Japan (+0.05% to 12760.8) seem to indicate that traders are undecided on market direction.

At this point in the session (8:08am ET, 1308 GMT), the European bourses are under moderate pressure, with the Financials being sold off. The UK FTSE is down -1.70% to 5083; French CAC -0.23% to 4052; and the German DAX -0.72% to 6038, but a turn seems to be occurring as prices are strengthening.

The $USD and Euro/USD futures yesterday were both down: (-0.23%) to 0.7129 for $USD, and (-0.03%) to 1.5904 for the Euro. The gains were in the Yen (+1.47%), Pound (+0.52%) and Loonie (+0.42%).

$GOLD gained +$5.00/oz to close at 978.70, after hitting a low on the day of 968.70.

Crude Oil futures closed at 139.37 (down -$6.41/bbl) after being down as low as 136.53.

Precious metal prices (spot) at 8:07am ET for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are (compared to yesterday morning): 970.81 (984.43); 432 (447); 1946 (2008); and 18.74 (19.355).

The $USD and Euro/USD futures are at the rates of 0.7192 and 1.5854, after being at 0.7203 and 1.5859 respectively an hour ago. So the Dollar is weakening a bit.

The DJIA futures at 8:54am ET are at 10911 after being at 10893 an hour ago, so the Bulls are gaining a bit.


Comments & Outlook

The selling of Energy stocks has been led by Exxon (XOM), which is, as I have opined all along, down almost to the 70’s. There was also some selling yesterday in Suncor (SU -5.5%), but I strongly feel that at the cycle bottom for the broad market, which I feel will come in the next couple months, traders ere should be accumulating an overweighting in the Canadian oilsands companies, like SU. In fact, I wouldn’t wait too long.

The GM story is, in my eyes, pathetic. How this company can unilaterally cut the pension benefits of its retirees is beyond me. How are retirees, some quite elderly ever going to afford healthcare premiums on their own now? This man Rick Wagoner, once again, shows me he is the very bottom of the barrel, a rotten apple, amongst American CEO's. My beef is that it's easy for him to beat down old people after they have given the best years of their life to the company that has been paying him mega-millions for what. This guy, as smooth a salesman as he is, has done nothing but make one bad management decision after another. Now he intends to arbitrarily bankrupt thousands of America's finest elderly citizens. I ask again, for what purpose? I feel sick about this and hope he gets his ass sued.

Where is Toyota, Honda and Nissan when America needs them to take over the likes of GM, Ford and Chrysler? If America wants to save itself, start by getting rid of Detroit's Big Three.

And as for big-bellied beer drinkers demanding that their BUD stay American, I can't stop laughing.

On another matter, I’ll try to clean up the price tables today. In fact today will be spent mostly on catching up with admin and mail. I haven’t had much time since mid-week last week.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 12: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 12: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 16, 2008 09:14:52 AM | Category: Daily Report