Share prices had been in negative territory yesterday until some mid-day speeches and TV appearances by key financial people led to a mini-rally in New York. By the close, the DJIA gained +152.3 +1.36% to 11384.2, the S&P 500 gained +21.4 +1.71% to 1273.7, and the NASDAQ Composite gained +51.1 +2.28% to 2294.4. The Toronto Composite gained +0.71%, but the Toronto Venture lost -78.7 -3.17% to 2399.7.

In NY, the Financials (XLF +6.5%) followed by Health (XLV) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY), both up +2.6%, were the winners. The loser again was Energy (XLE -1.7%) as Crude Oil ($WTIC) dropped -$5.33/barrel to 136.04. $GOLD futures dropped -$5.50/oz to 923.30.

The leading industry groups were Airlines ($XAL +11.2%), Banks ($BKS +7.6%), Broker-Dealers ($XBD +5.4%), and REIT’s ($DJR +6.8%). Goldminers ($XAU -1.7%) and Oil services ($OSX -1.5%) were the losers.

For the extreme Cara 100 stocks, the winners were ERJ (+11.0%) and BC (+8.2%). The losers were NUE (-4.4%), TCK (-4.3%) and TS (-4.2%).

The 30-year US Bond ($USB) gained +0.47% to 116.84. The yields on the 30-year, 10-year, and 5-year Treasury issues were down a bit and the T-Bill yield gained as traders moved out of short-term debt issues to take on a bit more risk.

The US Dollar index ($USD) gained +0.37% to close at 73.00. The Euro lost -0.40% to 1.5666, Yen -0.36% to 93.01, Pound -0.36% to 1.9694, and the Cdn Loonie -0.19% to 0.9807.

Earlier today, the Asia-Pacific equity markets all rallied. The Australia All-Ords gained +1.33% to 5089.4; the Shanghai Composite gained +3.75% to 2920.55; the Hang Seng of HK gained +2.76% to 21805.8; the Indian Sensex 30 gained +4.60% to 13964.3; and the Nikkei 225 was up just +0.15% to 13052.1.

European stocks this morning at about 8:05am ET. were stronger. The FTSE 100 is up +1.23% to 5507; the French CAC up +1.39% to 4336; and the German DAX +1.18% to 6379.

Crude Oil futures are up +1.91/bbl to 137.95, which is making equity traders nervous. The $USD is at 73.17 and the Euro at 1.5644, largely flat.

Spot prices at 7:47am ET for gold, palladium, platinum are down a bit, and silver up marginally, to: 917.35, 438, 1955, and 17.77, respectively.

The DJIA futures are at 11395, up +20 in the past few minutes, but traders are cautious to start the day.

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Comments & Outlook

Yesterday, I started the Daily Report with this statement: “Any attempt to rally this market is hit with words of caution regarding the ill health of the Financials and the inflationary pressures caused by the energy markets.” Then I added in the Comments section: “Share prices in the broad market can be saved from massive destruction if the commodity producers (energy and basic materials) (ie, the Yin) are sacrificed for the benefit of the Industrials, Consumers (cyclicals, staples and health), Financials, Tech, Telecom and Utilities (ie the Yang). So, while we may be in what is called a secular Bull market for commodities, there will be phases in the market where prices of commodities and the share prices of commodity producers are hammered.”

With plenty of rest and no alcohol the previous evening, I can focus my mind clearly on the market as soon as I wake. Apparently, yesterday was one of those days as prices moved pretty much in line with my thinking.

Some of you agree and some disagree with my opinion that “the new reality today is that Crude Oil at about $90-$100 and Gold at $820 is required to stave a total collapse of securities prices across the board. If that’s what the authorities want, ultimately that’s what they will get. The only thing to be determined is the interim volatility, which is the extent of the fight to be put up by vested interests among the commodity producers.”

Yesterday’s action notwithstanding, there is another deep concern shared by many traders that the Financials can and will get the occasional boost from the Fed, but ultimately will have to write off so much worthless investment and replace it with so much new capital that their share prices will continue to fall, and many banks will in fact fail.

What I recommend is that today each of you set up a sample portfolio at Google Finance for every bank and broker with a market cap of say $5 billion or more. To make it easy, here’s a list:
AIB BAC BBD BBV BCH BCS BK BMO BNS C CM CS DB GS HBC HDB IBN ITU JPM KB KEY LEH LYG MER MS MTU NBG NMR PNC RY SAN SCHW STD STI TD UBB UBS WB WBK WFC

Then watch for the earnings reports of these banks, comparing the results (and expected increase in write-downs) to their stock action in the market. Two things could happen to tell you this Bear market is going to end soon: (i) the write-downs are minimal, and (ii) share prices rally—not for one or two banks, but across the board--for several days after the corporate results for the biggest banks are released.

I'm not betting on that to happen. I think the shorts will return to the Financials pretty soon. Yesterday they were scared a bit that Professor Bernanke was up to his old tricks. A little short-covering, that's all.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
WMT	59.11	79.85	64.89	68.96
TT	46.49	76.65	65.62	56.92
TS	65.47	76.11	58.94	39.53	Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-07-02 at $68.92, -5.01% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
EXC	89.04	74.12	61.62	44.94
PBR	62.31	73.91	43.20	25.69
ATVI	31.72	72.65	47.94	33.11
COST	74.66	71.83	68.70	74.26
QCOM	47.55	70.69	58.49	59.34
GSK	47.76	53.35	71.72	76.63
YHOO	24.64	41.65	47.77	73.10
BMY	21.65	37.62	55.89	76.72

At least one RSI value <30:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
ERJ	27.81	16.22	20.67	53.01	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-08 at $27.81, +0.00% chg], after a 24 day AZ)
GOL	8.86	17.60	14.46	16.12	Accumulation Zone (for 8 days)
BC	10.94	17.76	22.33	45.20	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-08 at $10.94, +0.00% chg], after a 6 day AZ)
UBS	20.15	19.39	20.27	40.72	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-08 at $20.15, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
WFMI	23.26	23.17	20.62	33.27	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-08 at $23.26, +0.00% chg], after a 7 day AZ)
SBUX	15.34	23.73	34.20	33.14	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-08 at $15.34, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
WAG	31.89	24.85	26.13	26.28	Accumulation Zone (for 5 days)
TGP	24.16	25.52	18.00	10.51	Accumulation Zone (for 4 days)
DB	86.30	25.53	16.96	40.17	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-08 at $86.30, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
SNDK	17.83	26.12	21.95	25.55	Accumulation Zone (for 12 days)
CCL	34.26	27.19	36.01	55.13	Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-07-07 at $32.35, +5.90% chg], after a 3 day AZ)
BDK	58.25	27.45	28.11	52.97	Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-07-03 at $56.53, +3.04% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
AET	37.56	28.92	20.44	28.30	Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
BA	65.92	29.15	22.93	33.63	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-08 at $65.92, +0.00% chg], after a 5 day AZ)
JCP	37.83	29.53	42.51	60.54
TM	92.84	29.80	28.52	32.40
KB	55.16	29.92	30.53	20.67
DEO	70.81	30.68	17.06	36.12	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-08 at $70.81, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
IBN	28.98	31.87	24.79	38.85	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-07-08 at $28.98, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
UTX	61.77	32.47	24.50	38.55	Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-07-03 at $61.05, +1.18% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
ABV	59.19	33.46	25.97	17.40
HDB	74.55	35.49	25.69	47.78
DOW	34.94	35.89	25.01	40.14	Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-07-07 at $34.21, +2.13% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
CHA	52.41	36.58	18.81	31.25
KO	51.47	37.08	19.28	32.89
DIS	29.95	37.22	28.61	18.58
WBK	95.45	39.34	28.61	45.84
HBC	75.96	40.47	28.15	34.70
VCP	26.04	44.24	27.03	20.79
CTSH	31.35	44.88	43.93	28.08
NKE	58.32	45.16	28.69	32.60
VIP	27.70	45.66	29.17	39.24
CHL	67.34	46.47	28.13	50.03
IMO	49.95	47.85	28.04	13.05
TCK	40.83	48.20	33.47	14.23
NUE	63.16	49.23	30.82	28.29
PDA	47.39	51.67	34.94	15.46
RIO	31.92	51.87	32.05	23.43
BHP	75.30	56.79	35.92	25.79
STO	34.34	58.75	42.26	23.81
ECA	82.11	63.06	39.96	22.48
SYT	58.18	64.33	39.38	27.46
GGB	21.04	65.28	42.87	24.20
PBR	62.31	73.91	43.20	25.69

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AXP	41.55	1.96	4.95%	10.30%	1.64%	-5.80%	-18.59%	-10.59%	-13.35%	-32.45%
WMT	59.11	2.20	3.87%	5.18%	4.36%	-0.77%	26.03%	8.56%	28.58%	22.15%
GE	28.06	0.96	3.54%	5.13%	2.41%	-6.65%	-23.67%	-24.06%	-20.73%	-27.08%
PG	63.66	0.75	1.19%	4.69%	1.16%	-3.65%	-11.96%	-9.89%	-12.41%	3.55%
IBM	123.88	2.38	1.96%	4.51%	0.34%	-1.57%	18.33%	6.55%	26.94%	13.62%
JPM	35.77	1.73	5.08%	4.26%	-2.98%	-4.64%	-15.18%	-20.26%	-9.90%	-26.96%
PFE	18.19	0.80	4.60%	4.12%	4.66%	0.94%	-20.60%	-13.38%	-22.50%	-29.82%
MCD	58.52	1.16	2.02%	4.09%	2.65%	-1.33%	0.72%	4.74%	2.52%	13.79%
C	17.39	0.99	6.04%	3.76%	-6.25%	-11.28%	-39.87%	-26.81%	-35.92%	-66.36%
AIG	27.40	1.46	5.63%	3.55%	-9.57%	-18.18%	-51.33%	-41.39%	-50.68%	-60.90%
JNJ	66.21	0.96	1.47%	2.91%	2.99%	0.88%	0.46%	-0.17%	-1.09%	6.57%
MMM	71.03	1.18	1.69%	2.07%	-2.65%	-6.32%	-14.12%	-11.08%	-11.44%	-19.38%
BA	65.92	1.63	2.54%	0.30%	-12.79%	-10.86%	-23.90%	-12.13%	-17.51%	-33.33%
UTX	61.77	1.19	1.96%	0.11%	-10.24%	-8.56%	-17.87%	-13.97%	-13.96%	-14.92%
VZ	35.36	-0.07	-0.20%	-0.11%	-1.53%	-6.80%	-18.17%	-3.78%	-15.79%	-14.90%
KO	51.47	0.18	0.35%	-0.98%	-3.36%	-7.86%	-15.75%	-14.94%	-19.03%	-2.15%
BAC	23.54	2.01	9.34%	-1.38%	-9.04%	-20.50%	-41.96%	-38.67%	-38.71%	-52.11%
HD	23.04	0.72	3.23%	-1.62%	-8.06%	-13.19%	-11.76%	-18.24%	-6.87%	-42.83%
HPQ	43.45	-0.55	-1.25%	-1.72%	-4.53%	-8.78%	-12.77%	-5.69%	0.60%	-5.50%
MRK	36.97	0.37	1.01%	-1.91%	3.18%	-0.05%	-35.56%	-9.61%	-38.03%	-25.25%
T	32.96	0.28	0.86%	-2.17%	-4.13%	-12.25%	-19.61%	-15.05%	-15.83%	-18.94%
DD	41.89	0.37	0.89%	-2.33%	-7.87%	-9.35%	-4.23%	-15.31%	-2.01%	-19.40%
XOM	85.94	-1.01	-1.16%	-2.48%	-2.01%	-3.51%	-8.10%	-4.10%	-4.56%	-0.60%
INTC	20.92	0.21	1.01%	-2.61%	-6.44%	-8.08%	-17.48%	-0.76%	-6.02%	-15.24%
CVX	95.79	-1.03	-1.06%	-3.37%	-3.30%	-5.35%	2.49%	7.29%	5.32%	9.25%
DIS	29.95	-0.13	-0.43%	-4.01%	-7.53%	-9.73%	-5.94%	-3.60%	-1.93%	-13.16%
CAT	69.51	-1.30	-1.84%	-5.84%	-13.11%	-13.98%	-1.59%	-10.41%	3.51%	-11.80%