American Express (AXP), which had plummeted in June from a high of $47.47 to a low of $37.61 on the last day of H1, started the second half with a gain of +5.2% to $40.02. Other banks rallied, and this morning there has been a continuation of the banking industry share price rally in Europe.

The S&P 500 (+4.91 +0.38% to 1284.91) and NASDAQ Composite (+11.99 +0.52% to 2304.97) also firmed up at the close yesterday, and this morning’s equity futures are looking stronger at +57 at 11436 for the DJIA. The Toronto Exchange was closed.

In New York, the leading sectors were Utilities (XLU +0.52%) and Energy (XLE +0.42%). Financials (XLF) were up +0.30%. The Biotech industry group ($BTK) was up +1.5%.

The worst three sectors were Basic Materials (XLB -1.9%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.3%) and Telecom (IYZ -1.0%). Papers (-2.5%) led the Basic Materials down again, while the Airlines ($XAL -3.0%) led the Consumer Discretionary stocks down.

For the extreme Cara 100 stocks, the winners were: RIMM (+5.4%), GG (+4.3% to 48.16), DNA (+3.5% after the prior day’s gain of +4.4%) and COST (+3.4%). The losers were: GOL (-8.1%), VIP (-5.9% on large volume), SNDK (-5.8%), and IBN (-4.6%).

Starbucks, which had dropped -3.7% on Monday, reported the closings of 600 US stores. SBUX then closed down -0.76% at $15.62.

On the corporate front, Initial Public Offerings have fallen to a 5-year low. According to Bloomberg, there were 162 companies that postponed or withdrew share offerings in H1.

S&P ratings group downgraded broker Legg Mason, while apparently Moody's might do the same.

US vehicle sales have been a disaster. SUV and truck sales have been smashed by the high fuel prices. Ford F-150 sales, for instance, have dropped -41% Y/Y. The whole company did -28% less sales than a year ago (vs -19% anticipated by analysts). Even Toyota was down -11.5% company wide and the high-end Lexus brand was down -21%. The GM results were another bad one although for a while the media was generating stories that the losses were not as bad as most had expected.

The US long bond ($USB) was off a bit (-0.07%) to 115.52, whereas yields generally were flat, except that the T-Bill yield gained a further +7.0% (after Monday’s +4.6% move) to 1.825. Apparently the market is saying that the banks credit market problems have been alleviated, for now.

The US Dollar index ($USD) lost -0.18% to 72.39, while the Euro ($XEU) gained +0.29% to 1.5794), during trading above 1.58. $GOLD jumped +$16.20 to 944.50. The pressure on this trading is coming from expectations that the European Central Bank will raise rates at its meeting tomorrow, which will leave the $USD even weaker. Of course, other factors may come into play.

On the weaker US Dollar, Crude Oil ($WTIC) gained +$0.97/bbl to 140.97. This morning the Crude Oil futures are trading at $141.425.

Earlier today, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were mostly weak except India where the Sensex 30 gained +5.56% to 13682. The Australia All-Ords dropped -0.94% to 5211.6; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -1.80% to 21704.5 and Tokyo’s Nikkei Dow -1.31% to 13286.4. The Shanghai Composite closed flat at 2651.7. The South Korean KOSPI index lost -2.6% for its 5th consecutive losing day.

European stocks are stronger: UK FTSE +123 at 5547, French CAC +0.72% to 4372, and German DAX +1.08% to 6384 at about 6:30am ET. The strength is in the banks.

Spot prices at 6:20am ET for gold, palladium, platinum, and silver (along with earlier highs in today’s session): 933.12 (942.40), 462 (470), 2062 (2084) and 17.95 (18.18).

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Comments & Outlook

In the past couple days, the gold bug marketing force has been out in full force, recommending last opportunity purchases of gold. Harry Shultz and James Sinclair are two of them. The precious metals have rallied.

What is happening here, and is the rally likely to persist?

I believe that since most analysts are looking for a rate increase from the ECB on Thursday and no effective response from the Fed that the $USD is header lower, and that commodity prices should lift. This is speculation, mostly.

I believe the $USD has bottomed for now and will start to gain strength against the Euro on the grounds that the US economy, while weak, is stronger than Europe’s. Besides, there are other policy moves that the Fed can make that will help the $USD, for now.

The market may have been set up for a summer rally, which, if it happens, would likely be led by short-covering in the Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors, while I believe that the Energy and Basic Materials sectors will be pulled down or kept lagging due to lower commodity prices as the $USD moves a bit higher.

Food for thought.

But, trust me; I tune out the newsletter writers. Just like Wall St analysts, they are paid to give extreme views. If they can’t move your emotions, they don’t sell newsletters. It’s why they run in a pack, attending the same “investment” forums and all. One scratches the back of another and vice versa. When their train pulls out of the station, each has a separate car (for supporters) hooked up. As one-off voices, most of them would be lost in the wilderness.

Occasionally, there will be a lone analyst/writer, like a James Dines, who is a master craftsman who I listen too, and of course Marc Faber who seems to sound a clarion call to the other newsletter writers. But, independent traders have to take all this marketing stuff with a grain of salt. To the extent you stay clear of the noise, and watch closely the prices of a select group of stocks, you will probably outperform the newsletter writers.

One other thought today: why is Bloomberg running the same TV commercials repeatedly ad nauseum? Note that they are all for not-for-profit organizations. Do they not have any for-profit clients any more?

I think there is something behind this.

Finally, here is the weekly India market report from Deepak Lalwani.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.

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10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

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15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 12: Senior gold equities

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20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

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25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

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30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

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35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

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40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

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45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities

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50 (telecom: IYZ)

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55 (utilities: XLU)

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International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities perspective

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

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Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

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Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Daily British Pound Index:

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Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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Wrap-up