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July 29, 2008
Daily Report for Tue, Jul 29, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Merrill Lynch (MER), in taking the extreme action of agreeing to sell $8.5 billion of stock and sell $30.6 billion of bonds at 22 cents on the dollar, in order to protect its credit rating, has scared the market. Traders are now openly questioning how bad can this crisis get.
Overnight, the markets in Asia-Pacific were weak: Australia down -1.33% to 4923.3; Shanghai down -1.82% to 2850.3; Hong Kong down -1.89% to 22258.0; India’s Sensex 30 down -3.89% to 13791.5; and Japan’s Nikkei 225 down -1.46% to 13159.45.
In Europe at 7:45am ET (1245 GMT), the French CAC was down -1.18% to 4273; the German DAX down -0.67% to 6309; but the UK FTSE was up +0.48% to 5336. Clearly, there is an effort by the Bulls to boost the market at the open.
Yesterday, the North American equity markets were crunched again. The DJIA (-239.61 -2.11% to 11131.08), S&P 500 (-23.39 -1.89% to 1234.37), and the NASDAQ Composite (-46.31 -2.00% to 2264.22) stumbled badly. Toronto Composite (-0.56% to 13303.96) and Venture board (-0.08% to 2186.5) were also down, but much less so.
NY markets closed near their lows as selling pressure continued all day, although volume was exceptionally light. Financials (XLF -4.7%) led the sell-off, with Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Industrials (XLI) and Tech (XLK) also off more than -2.0% each. Energy (XLE +0.4%) managed a gain as Crude Oil ($WTIC +$1.47/bbl) closed up to 124.73.
The extreme industry groups were Airlines ($XAL -6.2%), Broker-Dealers ($XBD -5.2%) and Banks ($BKX -4.5%) on the downside, and Integrated Oils ($XOI +0.5%) and Goldminers (+0.2%) on the upside.
For the Cara 100, with very small volumes, the winners were SYT, BDK, NUE and GG, each up just +1.7% to +2.8%, whereas the losers were WBK (-10.5%), IBN (-8.4%), MICC (-8.0%) and TTM (-6.6%), which reflected the broad market sell-off.
In addition to the Merrill woes, two more US banks (First Nation Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank) were the sixth and seventh failures of the year.
After the bell, Amgen (AMGN +12.2%) reported a surprising Q2. Earnings dropped -7.6% due to restructuring and other charges as well as further declines in anemia drug sales. But these results beat analyst forecasts and there was also a positive study result on the company's promising osteoporosis drug (Denosumab). AMGN set a 52-week high of $62.50 before closing at $60.48.
On the corporate earnings front early today, Sony Corp (SNE) reported Q2 earnings plunged by about half to 34.98 billion yen ($326.9 million) versus a consensus forecast of a 52 billion yen ($486 million) profit. The reasons given: (i) a strong yen, (ii) the absence of "Spider-Man 3" revenue, (iii) faltering results at its cell phone operations battered earnings, and (iv) price competition in its core electronics sector.
The $USD closed the session down -0.24% to $0.7267 and the Euro was up +0.24% to $1.5741. US Bonds ($USB +1.07% to 115.03) were up as there was a safe-haven move to bonds and cash from equities during the session.
Precious metals were quiet yesterday, closing up +$0.90/oz to 937.80.
Spot prices at about 7:45am ET are for gold, palladium, platinum and silver per oz (vs yesterday morning’s prices): 925.31 (930.05), 386 (383), 1763 (1752) and 17.41 (17.42). The USD has just firmed in the past hour.
The DJIA futures are now up about +19 to 11155. A brief period of strength at the open and then more selling, I suppose?
Comments & Outlook
The fact that Merrill Lynch did not previously write-down their mortgage-backed assets in any significant way, despite knowing their dire straits, is inexcusable. Yesterday the Company sold almost $31 billion of such assets for 22 cents on the dollar. That write-off is more than Merrill’s market cap. Regulators need to know when Merrill actually believed their assets were significantly overpriced on the books, and who in management misled the stakeholders of the company. I think these are indictable offenses.
America has to wake up. It’s not just Merrill at fault here. Recently, Lehman Brothers did the same. Had they written off bad assets earlier, at a point I believe the insiders really knew the score, that company would have been bankrupt as well. And, I think Fannie, Freddie and scores more are in the same boat.
The capital markets can no longer accept such deceitful practices as the norm if the market is to remain an effective value pricing tool. Right now, it’s a joke. The authorities must fail to understand the importance of such matters at hand. Either that or they are complicit in what is going on.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 12: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 29, 2008 08:12:31 AM | Category: Daily Report








