Equity markets in Australia (-1.95% to 4910.1), Shanghai (-3.43% to 2779.5), Hong Kong (-3.81% to 21174.8), India (-4.66% to 12714.8), and Japan (-1.96% to 12754.6) all encountered serious selling as traders fled from Financials into government bonds.

The Sensex 30 of India dropped about -1% in the closing minutes. It has plunged about -10% since Thursday morning.

At this point in the session (6:45am ET, 1145 GMT), the European bourses are also under the same pressure. With the prices at 1000am GMT in brackets, the UK FTSE is down -1.94% to 5197 (-1.22% to 5236); French CAC -2.21% to 4051 (-0.86% to 4107); and the German DAX -2.05% to 6072 (-1.70% to 6095).

The $USD and Euro/USD futures are at 0.71665 and 1.5995, respectively, which is a much weaker USD since midnight. That is pushing commodity prices higher this morning.

Crude Oil futures have opened up +1.25/bbl to 147.03.

Precious metal prices (spot) at 6:45am ET for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are (compared to yesterday morning/Friday’s close): 984.43 (958.94/963.7); 447 (444/448.5); 2008 (2007/2027); and 19.355 (18.69/18.79).

So, one can see that the speculators are driving gold and silver and oil higher off the weaker USD.

DJIA futures are very weak, presently (6:50am ET) at 10908, down -127.

Possibly lost in the present financial system panic are serious economic results like the hyper-inflation of the UK and the mega-billion bankruptcy of Spain’s biggest real estate developer/builder.

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Comments & Outlook

It used to be that I could report and comment on markets daily, but in recent days there is such a flood of breaking news that I could do this every three hours and not keep up. For the long-term oriented trader, particularly the happy ones who fled to cash many months ago, it’s best to stand aside.

There may appear to be great value in some of the Financials, but what you really are looking at are depressed prices, and nothing more. In some cases, those prices will go to zero, so just because a price is low doesn’t mean there is value. In fact, the equity in many of the financial stocks cannot be assessed because nobody yet knows the extent of the losses or the timing of a turn in the real property market or the future of the interest rate market. Hence the prudent thing for any trader with a time horizon longer than one measured in minutes and hours is to stay in cash.

Just so you don’t think that I was calling for a rally yesterday, let me repeat precisely what I did opine early in the morning, after the equity futures showed that the DJIA would open up with a double-digit gain:

Bank earnings will start coming out this week… If [ie, if is the operative word] this early morning enthusiasm is going to develop [ie, after bank earnings are out] into a summer rally (from an over-sold level), then either (i) losses or reduced earnings at the banks must be less than anticipated, or (ii) the hype and spin to come from Wall Street re the banks must be ridiculous. I expect to hear so much spin [ie, after the bank earnings come out] from Financial Entertainment TV that the rally will get underway. That folks will be one more opportunity to sell into strength and to reload with shorts in the Financial and Consumer Discretionary stocks and ETF’s. This Bear market will not die until independent traders believe the banks have come clean about their losses and required capital raise-ups. That final wave of selling will take some bank and broker-dealer stocks to zero. The equity market is setting up for a last chance to exit. I expect the final ride will be a severe challenge to most portfolios. Ah, but that might not happen for six weeks or so.

What happened mid-day was Treasury Secretary Paulson indicating that the authorities (aka Interventionists) might not help Fannie and Freddie as much as traders might expect, and then the implication was that other banks would not be saved, causing FDIC to take them over like IndyMac.

After that, Washington Mutual (WM) plummeted, closing down -34.7% (with angry depositors lined up around the block to withdraw funds), M&T Bank (MBT) sank by -15.6%, and National City (NCC) closed down -14.7%. Mortgage lenders were smashed.

When the same run on the IndyMac bank happened on Friday, FDIC rushed in and closed the doors. Under federal protection, the bank re-opened and stopped foreclosures. Unfortunately FDIC doesn’t have the capital base to do the same with many more of these banks, and there are, in fact, many more in the same situation as IndyMac.

The Wall Street Journal today says that Paulson should be demanding the power to put Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) into federal receivership. Clearly, they are insolvent and do not have sufficient capital to withstand a run on deposits, but these institutions called Government Sponsored Enterprises are too big for FDIC to protect. So, what’s the answer?

I don’t think Henry Paulson has one. It’s why I called his actions as Treasury Secretary for the past two years and more “Paulson’s Folly”. The man should be impeached.

Overnight trading confirms the fears that Fannie and Freddie and some banks may not withstand the present run on deposits. Obviously, the Bulls are being routed, and their DJIA=11,000 line is not holding up, so traders are expecting the worst.

What is a trader to do? As I say, let’s wait for the reports of bank earnings and the ensuing hype from Wall Street Talking Heads. In the meantime, if you are anything but a day trader, do nothing. If you have uninsured deposits, remove them. Buy T-Bills if you must or short-term government paper from other countries. But, there is no reason, if you are out of the market, to lose your head. Only those who have failed to manage risks when they were alerted to them should be the ones to suffer emotionally today.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.

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10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

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15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 12: Senior gold equities

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20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

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25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

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30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

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35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

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40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

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45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities

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50 (telecom: IYZ)

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55 (utilities: XLU)

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International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities perspective

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

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Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

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Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Daily British Pound Index:

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Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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Wrap-up