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July 8, 2008
Daily Report for Tue, Jul 08, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Any attempt to rally this market is hit with words of caution regarding the ill health of the Financials and the inflationary pressures caused by the energy markets. Yesterday, oil prices sank a bit and prices rallied; then worries about specific names in the mortgage banking industry, in North America and abroad, and prices tumbled.
By the close in New York, the DJIA lost -56.58 -0.50% to 11231.96, and the S&P 500 dropped -1.59 -0.84% to 1252.31, but the NASDAQ Composite lost just -2.06 -0.09% to 2243.34. The Toronto Composite lost -297.6 -2.12% to 13712.8 while the Toronto Venture lost -3.29% to 2478.4.
Goverment-sponsored mortgage lenders Fannie Mae (FNM -16.2% to 15.74) and Freddie Mac (FRE -17.9% to 11.91) are believed to require more capital, which sent their stocks plummeting. Later in the day, the cash-strapped IndyMac Bancorp (IMB +6.0% to $0.71) announced it is no longer accepting new mortgage loan applications and is also cutting 3,800 jobs, which is more than half its work force, so the stock recovered a bit. There were earlier rumors the Fed was shutting down the bank.
The Fannie and Freddie story has been dismal for the past year. The 52-week highs last Aug 22 and 17 respectively saw FNM hit 70.57 and FRE go to 67.20. IMB, which closed on a rally at 71 cents hit a high of 31.32 on July 9 one year ago! Then the credit squeeze. As liquidity dried up, FNM and FRE plunged to lows yesterday of 14.65 and 10.28. The industry problems have not been resolved and analysts are having an impossible time placing a value on the assets of these GSE companies. Some say they are basically insolvent.
The losing sectors then were the Financials (XLF -3.3%) and Energy (XLE -2.5%). Crude Oil ($WTIC -3.92/bbl) may have started a pull-back after pressure from the Fed and other central bankers following last weekend’s G-8 meetings.
The winners among sectors were the Papers and Telecoms, but only a little. Banks ($BKS -3.7%), Broker-Dealers ($XBD -2.7%), Natural Gas ($XNG -3.5%) and REIT’s ($DJR -2.2%) were all weak.
For the extreme Cara 100 stocks, the winners were: YHOO (+12.0%) on discussion that Microsoft (MSFT) is back in the acquisition picture, NUE (+5.6%), and ATVI (+3.6%).
The losers were: GOL (-7.3%), which continues to get hammered and may be removed from the Cara 100, UBS (-7.0%), which also may be removed, ECA (-5.2%) and GS (-5.1%).
Volumes picked up, particularly on the sell-off.
The 30-year US Bond ($USB) gained +0.36% to 116.30. The yields on the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and T-Bill Treasury issues were at 4.504, 3.93, 3.219 and 1.775 respectively. The yields declined increasingly with the shorter durations to reflect a safe-haven move by traders who were gaining fear that some banks might fail.
The US Dollar index ($USD) had a short and sweet move higher but closed at 72.73, up just +0.02%. The Euro also gained to 1.5729 (+0.23%) while the Yen fell -0.33% to 93.35. The Pound also lost -0.23% to 1.9766, while the Cdn Loonie gained +0.21 to .9826.
$GOLD lost -$4.80/oz to 928.80, which was a bit of a late session recovery.
Earlier today, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were down except for Shanghai, which gained +0.81% to 2815. The Australia All-Ords lost -1.36% to 5022.4; the Hang Seng of HK lost -3.16% to 21220.8; the Indian Sensex 30 lost -2.01% to 13254; and the Nikkei 225 lost -2.45% to 13033.
European stocks this morning at about 7:45am ET were weak. The FTSE 100 is down -1.25% to 5413, while the French CAC is down -1.90% to 4268, and the German DAX -1.69% to 6275.
Crude Oil futures are down -$1.57/bbl to 139.80. The $USD is up a bit to 73.06, and the Euro down a bit to 1.5642.
Spot prices at 7:24am ET for gold, palladium, platinum, and silver are down a bit to: 921.46, 442, 1986, and 17.61, respectively.
The DJIA futures are 11156 down -49 as traders worry that Fed chairman Bernanke’s speech today will indicate tougher measures and his concern for inflation. Longer-term traders are also anxious about the nation's stumbling mortgage lenders.
Comments & Outlook
Today’s headline seems to be “Global sell-off; Financials look scary”. The issue here is that today is the start of Earning’s Season and when the big banks, broker-dealers and insurance companies report, they will be taking huge losses from asset write-downs.
Some traders seem to think there will be a silver lining in that central banks will flood new money into markets to keep prices of securities (ie, stocks and bonds) from collapsing. I think these people have been dialing 1-800-HOPE. No, the writing is on the wall; the central banks of the G-8 are committed to squeezing liquidity out of markets and re-injecting it into Humungous Bank & Broker, which desperately needs new capital. In a period of growing inflationary challenges, central banks recognize the need for monetary policy and tactics that puts pressure on speculators.
Share prices in the broad market can be saved from massive destruction if the commodity producers (energy and basic materials) (ie, the Yin) are sacrificed for the benefit of the Industrials, Consumers (cyclicals, staples and health), Financials, Tech, Telecom and Utilities (ie the Yang).
So, while we may be in what is called a secular Bull market for commodities, there will be phases in the market where prices of commodities and the share prices of commodity producers are hammered.
I think the new reality today is that Crude Oil at about $90-$100 and Gold at $820 is required to stave a total collapse of securities prices across the board. If that’s what the authorities want, ultimately that’s what they will get. The only thing to be determined is the interim volatility, which is the extent of the fight to be put up by vested interests among the commodity producers. And I think the strongest of those will not fight the pressure tactics of the central bankers and finance ministers because they will see that the period ahead is one where corporate takeovers of the industry’s weakest players can be facilitated.
Success comes to those who are prepared for it.
So, the term “Global Sell-Off” means opportunity to those who are thinking ahead.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
At least one RSI value <30:
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
15 (basic materials: XLB)

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
Table 12: Senior gold equities
20 (industrial: XLI)

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
30 (consumer staples: XLP)

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
35 (healthcare: IYH)

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
40 (financial: XLF)

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

Table 9: Senior technology equities
50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities perspective
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 8, 2008 07:58:04 AM | Category: Daily Report









