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July 8, 2008

Daily Report for Tue, Jul 08, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Any attempt to rally this market is hit with words of caution regarding the ill health of the Financials and the inflationary pressures caused by the energy markets. Yesterday, oil prices sank a bit and prices rallied; then worries about specific names in the mortgage banking industry, in North America and abroad, and prices tumbled.

By the close in New York, the DJIA lost -56.58 -0.50% to 11231.96, and the S&P 500 dropped -1.59 -0.84% to 1252.31, but the NASDAQ Composite lost just -2.06 -0.09% to 2243.34. The Toronto Composite lost -297.6 -2.12% to 13712.8 while the Toronto Venture lost -3.29% to 2478.4.

Goverment-sponsored mortgage lenders Fannie Mae (FNM -16.2% to 15.74) and Freddie Mac (FRE -17.9% to 11.91) are believed to require more capital, which sent their stocks plummeting. Later in the day, the cash-strapped IndyMac Bancorp (IMB +6.0% to $0.71) announced it is no longer accepting new mortgage loan applications and is also cutting 3,800 jobs, which is more than half its work force, so the stock recovered a bit. There were earlier rumors the Fed was shutting down the bank.

The Fannie and Freddie story has been dismal for the past year. The 52-week highs last Aug 22 and 17 respectively saw FNM hit 70.57 and FRE go to 67.20. IMB, which closed on a rally at 71 cents hit a high of 31.32 on July 9 one year ago! Then the credit squeeze. As liquidity dried up, FNM and FRE plunged to lows yesterday of 14.65 and 10.28. The industry problems have not been resolved and analysts are having an impossible time placing a value on the assets of these GSE companies. Some say they are basically insolvent.

The losing sectors then were the Financials (XLF -3.3%) and Energy (XLE -2.5%). Crude Oil ($WTIC -3.92/bbl) may have started a pull-back after pressure from the Fed and other central bankers following last weekend’s G-8 meetings.

The winners among sectors were the Papers and Telecoms, but only a little. Banks ($BKS -3.7%), Broker-Dealers ($XBD -2.7%), Natural Gas ($XNG -3.5%) and REIT’s ($DJR -2.2%) were all weak.

For the extreme Cara 100 stocks, the winners were: YHOO (+12.0%) on discussion that Microsoft (MSFT) is back in the acquisition picture, NUE (+5.6%), and ATVI (+3.6%).

The losers were: GOL (-7.3%), which continues to get hammered and may be removed from the Cara 100, UBS (-7.0%), which also may be removed, ECA (-5.2%) and GS (-5.1%).

Volumes picked up, particularly on the sell-off.

The 30-year US Bond ($USB) gained +0.36% to 116.30. The yields on the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and T-Bill Treasury issues were at 4.504, 3.93, 3.219 and 1.775 respectively. The yields declined increasingly with the shorter durations to reflect a safe-haven move by traders who were gaining fear that some banks might fail.

The US Dollar index ($USD) had a short and sweet move higher but closed at 72.73, up just +0.02%. The Euro also gained to 1.5729 (+0.23%) while the Yen fell -0.33% to 93.35. The Pound also lost -0.23% to 1.9766, while the Cdn Loonie gained +0.21 to .9826.

$GOLD lost -$4.80/oz to 928.80, which was a bit of a late session recovery.

Earlier today, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were down except for Shanghai, which gained +0.81% to 2815. The Australia All-Ords lost -1.36% to 5022.4; the Hang Seng of HK lost -3.16% to 21220.8; the Indian Sensex 30 lost -2.01% to 13254; and the Nikkei 225 lost -2.45% to 13033.

European stocks this morning at about 7:45am ET were weak. The FTSE 100 is down -1.25% to 5413, while the French CAC is down -1.90% to 4268, and the German DAX -1.69% to 6275.

Crude Oil futures are down -$1.57/bbl to 139.80. The $USD is up a bit to 73.06, and the Euro down a bit to 1.5642.

Spot prices at 7:24am ET for gold, palladium, platinum, and silver are down a bit to: 921.46, 442, 1986, and 17.61, respectively.

The DJIA futures are 11156 down -49 as traders worry that Fed chairman Bernanke’s speech today will indicate tougher measures and his concern for inflation. Longer-term traders are also anxious about the nation's stumbling mortgage lenders.



Comments & Outlook

Today’s headline seems to be “Global sell-off; Financials look scary”. The issue here is that today is the start of Earning’s Season and when the big banks, broker-dealers and insurance companies report, they will be taking huge losses from asset write-downs.

Some traders seem to think there will be a silver lining in that central banks will flood new money into markets to keep prices of securities (ie, stocks and bonds) from collapsing. I think these people have been dialing 1-800-HOPE. No, the writing is on the wall; the central banks of the G-8 are committed to squeezing liquidity out of markets and re-injecting it into Humungous Bank & Broker, which desperately needs new capital. In a period of growing inflationary challenges, central banks recognize the need for monetary policy and tactics that puts pressure on speculators.

Share prices in the broad market can be saved from massive destruction if the commodity producers (energy and basic materials) (ie, the Yin) are sacrificed for the benefit of the Industrials, Consumers (cyclicals, staples and health), Financials, Tech, Telecom and Utilities (ie the Yang).

So, while we may be in what is called a secular Bull market for commodities, there will be phases in the market where prices of commodities and the share prices of commodity producers are hammered.

I think the new reality today is that Crude Oil at about $90-$100 and Gold at $820 is required to stave a total collapse of securities prices across the board. If that’s what the authorities want, ultimately that’s what they will get. The only thing to be determined is the interim volatility, which is the extent of the fight to be put up by vested interests among the commodity producers. And I think the strongest of those will not fight the pressure tactics of the central bankers and finance ministers because they will see that the period ahead is one where corporate takeovers of the industry’s weakest players can be facilitated.

Success comes to those who are prepared for it.

So, the term “Global Sell-Off” means opportunity to those who are thinking ahead.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables








Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:

At least one RSI value <30:


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU XLK SPY . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities


15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Table 12: Senior gold equities



20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation



25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities



30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities



35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities



40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

Table 8: Senior financial company equities



45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

Table 9: Senior technology equities



50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ



55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities perspective


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada's equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Mar-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 12: Senior gold equities


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart



The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.


Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart


The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:


Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart



Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:


Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Daily British Pound Index:


Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart


Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


Wrap-up

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 8, 2008 07:58:04 AM | Category: Daily Report